Alan Salehzadeh

Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policies

ISSN 1236-4983 National Defence University Department of Strategic and Defence Studies National Defence University Tel. +358 0299 800 www.mpkk.fi Department of Strategic strategianlaitos@mil.fi and Defence Studies Series 4: Working Papers, No 49 P.O.Box 266, 00171 HELSINKI Suomi Finland MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU STRATEGIAN LAITOS JULKAISUSARJA 4: TYÖPAPEREITA No 49

NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STRATEGIC AND DEFENCE STUDIES SERIES 4: WORKING PAPERS No 49

IRAN’S DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICIES

ALAN SALEHZADEH

MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU Strategian laitos HELSINKI 2013

Alan Salehzadeh: Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policies Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu, Strategian laitos Julkaisusarja 4: työpapereita No 49 National Defence University, Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Series 4: Working Papers No 49

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ISSN 1236-4983 Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu – National Defence University Strategian laitos – Department of Strategic and Defence Studies

Juvenes Print Tampere 2013

IRAN’S DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICIES Alan Salehzadeh*

Iran has a reputation of being a problematic country. Right now, it is proceeding with its nuclear program despite the opposition of the West and neighboring countries and the massive sanctions inflicted upon it. The country is also strug- gling with domestic issues. Half of Iran’s population belongs to different ethnic or religious minorities. They have poor rights to express their culture in the coun- try, which is a cause of dissatisfaction among non-Shiite and non-Persian citi- zens. After the Arab Spring, the situation in Iran is getting more topical than ever. In the Syrian conflict, the Shiite Iran is constantly giving support to al- Assad’s regime. These are all factors that have aggravated the already irritated re- lations between .

Introduction volted, and finally it led to the Shah being overthrown and forced into exile in 1979. What is nowadays known as Iran was part However, things did not change for the of the Persian Empire until 1935, when the good – quite the opposite. When the regime Empire collapsed and was divided into sev- changed, the political situation became eral different countries. For many years af- more and more tense, as the new regime ter the Persian Empire collapsed Iran was a started to rule with terror, cutting down civ- secular country, where women dressed as il rights and adopting a hostile attitude to- they pleased and both genders mingled wards most foreign nations. freely. Things changed when the West- Now Iran is widely thought to pose a minded Shah was overthrown and forced threat to its surrounding countries, , into exile in 1979. and the rest of the world. Iran is known to The Shah was an autocrat, and ruled support terrorist organizations and causes the country by himself. He maintained good great concern with its urge to build a nu- relations with the West, especially with the clear weapon. The human rights conditions . That is why he was accused are in a very bad state according to many in- of placing Western needs prior to those of ternational sources, and the relations with his own people. most foreign nations are currently strained. This wasn’t the only reason why the The purpose of this research is to analyze Iranians were unhappy with him. Under the the current situation of Iran and to present Shah’s regime, the rights of different eth- possible scenarios that may happen. I will nicities and political groups were trampled focus i.a. on the country’s domestic policy, on. Political Islam was forbidden. The local the relations Iran has with its neighboring intelligence service and the army had major countries and some other key nations, and roles in running the society. Secular people, the nuclear question. leftists, different ethnic minorities, liberals But first we contemplate the principles and religious people all suffered under the on which the Islamic Republic of Iran lies. Shah and were unhappy under his restrict- ing regime. Iran was torn with political and economic problems, and the people wanted desperately for things to change. So they re-

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1 The Islamic Republic of Iran also referred to as Ayatollah Khamenei.2 Religious organs and institutions have the 1.1 Principles and Practice highest power of decision. The Supreme Leader’s power is spread across the In this chapter, the system of government branches of government and he has final that was established in Iran in 1979, is brief- say in all matters. ly presented. What principles is it founded Ayatollah Khamenei has direct control on, and how does it operate? over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Below are listed the “seven essential Corps (IRGS). It has a parallel army, navy elements” of democracy, as adopted by the and air force which are explicitly loyal to the UN General Assembly in their resolution revolutionary regime and answers directly to dating from 20041: Ayatollah Khamenei. IRGS’s commanders are key military figures. Khamenei has given - Separation and balance of power them a lot of power over the country’s - Independence of the judiciary economy, allowing them to run everything - A pluralistic system of political parties from oil pipelines to construction projects and organizations and 's main airport.3 - Respect for the rule of law The Islamic Republic of Iran maintains - Accountability and transparency religious laws and has religious courts to in- - Free, independent and pluralistic media terpret all aspects of law. The Constitution - Respect for human and political rights; of the Islamic Republic of Iran advances the e.g., freedoms of association and expres- cultural, social, political, and economic insti- sion; the right to vote and to stand in tutions of Iranian society based on Islamic elections principles and norms. All official decision must be in accordance with the Koran and The Islamic Republic of Iran does not fol- Islamic laws.4 low these criteria. The ruling principles, in- Iran’s theocratic system and domestic cluding legislation, constitution, system of policy form in fact, an extremely complex government and practices of Iran strongly system. However, to understand how the differ from the UN’s principles listed above. system of government works, it is sufficient The country cannot be thought of as to know that the Supreme Religious Leader a democratic republic, even though the Su- is the only ruler, together preme Leader tries to convince the opposite with his closest inner circle called Beite Ra- – it is a theocratic republic. In a theocratic re- hbari.5 Beite Rahbari consists of clerics and public, power is thought to belong to God and His representatives. In Iran, the Su- 2 The office of the Supreme Leader Sayyed Ali Kha- preme Leader is Ali Hosseini Khamenei, menei, 1 July 2013, [http://www.leader.ir/langs/en/] 3 Article 91 of the Constitution establishes all the power granted to the Spiritual Leader appointed by * Alan Salehzadeh has previously worked in differ- his peers for an unlimited duration. ent universities as a researcher and lecturer. Before 4 Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, that, he worked in the Ministry for Foreign Affairs Article 91, 17 February 2010, [http://www.imj.ir/ of Finland. Currently he works as a researcher at the index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id= National Defence University, in the Department of 583:1388-11-17-15-39-46&catid=84:1388-11-03-08- Strategic and Defence Studies. 40-10&Itemid=222]. 1 Meyer Michael, “International Consensus: Essen- 5 Beite Rahbari is formed by influential people, the tial elements of democracy”, 2007, inner circle of Khamenei, who are involved in [http://www.democracyreporting.org/files/essentia decision-making 3 July 2010, [http://www.pey- l_elements_of_democracy_2.pdf]. keiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=19544].

3 soldiers, who have especially been desig- maintain the current political, un- nated to protect the clerical members of democratic system. This make it even more Beite Rahbari. The exact number of clerics hard for the people to try and change belonging to Beite Rahbari is a close-kept things. secret, and no one knows their actual num- ber. There are at least dozens of them, all 1.2 Iranians Want Democracy personally chosen by Ali Khamenei. Ali Khamenei and his Beite Rahbari group have When Iranians initiated the revolution in all power upon Iran’s domestic and foreign 1979, their main wish was for a democratic policies. regime to be installed in the country. How- Nonetheless, there are dozens of dif- ever, at that time, religious groups within ferent political parties in Iran. Their role is the country were better organized than any- to give a pseudo-impression of democracy one else. Some say that they took advantage to the people and foreign observers. How- of the power of religion to turn uneducated ever, all political parties must act in accor- people to support their ideology. They dance with the Islamic laws. Thus, there is maintained rhetoric where democracy and no real difference between them, and they freedom were promised, and so they were differ mainly in the degree of intensity they able to widely gain the support of the peo- interpret the Islamic laws. For the people, ple. The actual revolution itself had been elections are like having to choose what to started and carried through by leftist, liberal eat from different-colored eggs. Whichever and secular groups, but now they found you choose, you are still going to have an themselves excluded from any real power as omelet. religious groups took over. However, Islam- In Iran, Ali Khamenei and Beite Ra- ist groups, led by Khomeini, promised to hbari have divided power to different elite the same things they were after: Islamic groups, such as The Revolutionary democracy and freedom for all. In the first Guard Corps (IRGC), The Islamic Republic election after Shah was overthrown, 98% of Iran Army (IRIA), the intelligence ser- voted for the Islamic republic, and so vices and the Basij (a paramilitary volunteer Khomeini stepped into power.7 militia). This is also an attempt to show that After Khomeini took power, the prom- power is divided – in fact, all important de- ises given to the people were unfulfilled. He cisions are made by Khamenei alone. started almost immediately to rule with ter- Among these groups that are Khamenei’s ror, executing those who opposed him. Is- subordinates, a fierce battle on money and lamists established the Islamic Republic of oil income is taking place, each wanting Iran, abolished non-Islamic political parties, more power than the other group has.6 All captured and executed people who wanted of the subordinate groups want to preserve democracy. They have been ruling the the current Islamic ruling system in the country in an autocrat way ever since. country – all together Ali Khamenei and the Iranians have widely protested against their subordinate groups are like a ship; if one rulers.8 The government has answered by piece breaks, they will all go down and sink. capturing and killing dissidents. It can be Thus, it is in the interest of all the organs that have access to some kind of power, to 7 Press-TV, ”Iran marks Islamic Republic Day”, 1 April.2013, [http://www.presstv.com/detail/ 2013/04/01/295997/iran-marks-islamic-republic- 6 Al-Monitor “Iran’s Basij Militia Builds' Resistance day/]. Economy', 19 March.2013, [http://www.al-moni- 8 Daly Brendan, ” Regime Change in Iran?”, Middle tor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/iran-basij-militia- East Quarterly, Spring 2012, pp. 81–86, combat-sanctions-resistance-economy.html]. [http://www.meforum.org/meq/pdfs/3225.pdf].

4 said that the vast majority of Iranians want ties, while the reformists are moderately re- things to change, but all the attempts they ligious members of right-wing parties. have made to try to implement a democratic The reformist and conservative parties government have been in vain so far.9 of Iran have been subjects of a lot of politi- cal analysis. Most of the experts on Iran’s 2 The Iranian Political Scene political system agree that the Iranian politi- cal system is clearly divided into these two In Iran the political scene can be divided distinct political camps. However, there are into reformists and conservatives. However, other researchers that argue, quite accu- all parties, no matter the side, must obey the rately, that no matter which side the ruler Islamic rules. Thus, there are many similari- claims to belong, Iran is in fact always gov- ties between the two sides. erned by clerics, who follow the Shiite Is- First of all, both are under the subor- lamic principles. dination of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, In the following chapter, this latter they do not have any real power of their point-of-view is further explained. own, and they cannot act in discordance with principles set by Khamenei. Secondly, 2.1 Conservatives and Reformists both groups want to act according to the Iranian legislation and to maintain and pro- Reformists can win the election when the tect the principles of the Islamic Republic. Supreme Leader allows it. This happens in Thirdly, both groups want to limit the de- situations where the national economy is gree of freedom of the people. Fourthly, plummeting or the foreign or domestic pol- neither of these two political groups pro- icy of the country is in a situation of crisis. motes equality and rights of different op- For instance, when the most famous re- pressed groups like women, ethnic or reli- formist was elected gious minorities and different sexual mi- president in 1997, Iran was facing grave dif- norities. Fifthly, neither accepts the exis- ficulties economically, in its domestic af- tence of Israel, and both groups wish for fairs, and with its relations with other coun- Iran to continue develop nuclear weapons. tries. Sixthly, whether it was under the govern- When Mohammad Khatami became ment of the conservatives or the reformists, president in 1997, the relation between the Iran supported different Islamic organiza- EU and Iran were in a really bad state. In tions worldwide, and neither of the groups fact, all relations were stopped. This was have been able to challenge or change the due to the fact that in 1997, Iranian authori- domestic and foreign policies set by the Su- ties were guilty of murdering a Kurdish op- preme Leader. position leader in Germany. After this was Ever since the founding of the Islamic found out, the EU countries cut all diplo- Republic of Iran, there has been this dual matic relations with the country, and shortly division in the political system. These par- after Khatami became president.10 ties operate inside the Islamic regime; the conservatives are religious extremist and 10 In the findings of the Superior Court of Justice in members of ultra-religious right-wing par- Berlin in the so-called Mykonos case, the involvement of the Iranian authorities at the highest level was established. The 9 Farwick Dieter, ” Iran's Ex-President Banisadr: condemned this involvement of the Iranian "People want Regime Change", 18 February 2010, authorities and regarded such behavior as totally [http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/Iran/diete unacceptable. r-farwick-1/Irans-Ex-President-Banisadr-People- [http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_dat want-Regime-Change]. a/docs/pressdata/en/cfsp/032E.htm].

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In Iran, not everyone can pose as a candi- In August 2013, another reformist date for the presidential elections. It is the president was sworn in – .15 Guardian Council of the Constitution11 that The reasons behind his election are largely elects who is a suitable candidate, following similar to the ones behind Khatami’s. Rou- strict criteria dictated by the Supreme hani is now perceived as the savior of the Leader. The election of Khatami in this Islamic Republic, who is going to re- critical situation was carefully planned in establish good relations with neighboring advance. countries and the West, reflate the economy Nonetheless, the golden ruling period and prevent large protests and the Arab of the reformists was under Mohammad spring to spread to Iran. Khatami’s period between 1997 and 2005. According to his own speeches, Rou- Under his regime, Iran was able to enhance hani is prepared to follow the laws of the Is- its economic situation and diplomatic rela- lamic Republic, and act as a subordinate of tions, and suggested to open a “dialogue the Supreme Leader. He has also stated that among civilizations and cultures” in the Iran has the right to enrich , but UN. In 2000, following Iran’s initiative, the that the country is ready to solve the dis- UN named the 5th of September to be the agreement over nuclear weapons in a peace- Day of Dialogue Among Civilizations.12 All of ful manner with the West.16 According to this was actually a way to keep everyone Rouhani, Iran’s policy towards will not happy and thus extend the existence of the change under his regime, and Iran has the Islamic Republic. All the reforms Khatami duty and obligation to support Bashar al- made were submitted to the control and re- Assad under all circumstances.17 This shows strictions of the Supreme Leader.13 In the that even though Rouhani belongs to the end of his 8-year leading period, Khatami reformist side, in all the critical aspects he is himself stated that his role was to be the ready to agree with the previous, conserva- right hand of the Supreme Leader, and that tive government. This is why some re- he had no possibilities to act beyond the searchers feel that Iran is always ruled by will of Khamenei.14 Shiites, loyal to Khamenei. The entire sys- tem is built in a way that it does not allow 11 The Guardian Council of the Constitution: The any real political dissidence. 12-member Council of Guardians is one of the most powerful, unelected institutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The supreme leader appoints six clerical members. The head of the judiciary, on advice of parliament, appoints six lay members. All 67386539/khatami-says-he-s-powerless-hard-liners- 12 members are appointed to six-year terms. The rule-iran-s]. Guardian Council of the Constitution, 6 August 15 Kamali Dehghan Saeed, “Hassan Rouhani sworn 2013, [http://www.shora-gc.ir/Portal/Home/]. in as , urging moderation and 12 Unesco, “Round Table: Dialogue among Civiliza- respect”, The Guardian 4 August 2013, tions , New York, 5 September 2000 [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/04 Provisional verbatim transcription”, 2000, [http:// /hassan-rouhani-sworn-in-president-iran]. www.unesco.org/dialogue/en/khatami.htm]. 16 Fars-News, “President Rouhani: No Compromise 13 Fisher Max, “How do Iran’s supreme leader and over Iran’s N. Enrichment Right”, 6 August 2013, president split power? Here’s a chart explaining it”, [President Rouhani: No Compromise over Iran’s N. Washington post, 14 June 2013, [http://www.wash- Enrichment Right]. ingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/06/1 17 Dubowits Mark and Badran Tony, “Iran's 4/how-do-irans-supreme-leader-and-president-split- 'Moderate' New President Still Supports Assad”, The power-heres-a-chart-explaining-it/]. Antlantic 5 August 2013, [http://www.theat- 14 The Florida Times Union, “Khatami Says He is lantic.com/international/archive/2013/08/irans- Powerless Hard-Liners Rule, Iran's President Says”, moderate-new-president-still-supports-assad/ [http://www.questia.com/library/1G1- 278361/].

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2.2 The Opposition 2.2.1 Iranians Have Massively Protested Against Their Government Since there are no real differences between conservatives and reformists, it is important It is not possible for the Iranians to change to stop for a while to analyze the role of the their regime democratically through elec- opposition. tions. Since the founding of the Islamic Re- For opposition groups, it is impossible public, they have tried everything possible to work within Iran, since it is strictly for- to change the theocratic system into a de- bidden by the system. The only opposition mocratic one – without ever succeeding in group that has operated inside the country their attempts. Since the revolution of 1979, is the Green Movement, which now has Iranians have tried in a peaceful manner to been repressed, too. urge the rulers to fulfill their demands for a All the Iranian opposition groups work democratic system to be formed. The au- from abroad. Most of them have their thorities have been answering to these de- headquarters in Europe or the United mands by captivating and executing people. States. There are dozens of this kind of op- After the government had many times position groups that represent all sorts of violently suppressed the risings and de- political goals: leftist, communist, pro- mands of the people, different political monarchy, minority political parties… groups tried to overthrow the government These maintain institutes and organizations by using guns and arms in the late 1990’s. that all share a goal; to change the regime. Once again, the Iranian regime was able to However, they lack a common front, since suppress the democratic urges coming from the different opposition groups do not col- the people and to disperse the armed laborate with each other. groups. Iranians did not give up. Every time The most powerful opposition groups a new chance to demonstrate and protest are the People's Mujahedin of Iran (or the against the regime appeared, the Iranians Mojahedin-e-Khalq) and some minority po- seized it.18 litical parties. The Mojahedin-e-Khalq head- In June 2009, mass demonstrations quarters are located in the Iraqi side of the erupted in Iran against the officially de- Iran-Iraq border. These opposition groups clared victory of . fight the government actively and are en- The demonstrators felt the election had gaged to armed confrontation with the cen- been fraudulent. Thousands of protesters tral government forces. The rest of the op- marched in Tehran chanting their slogan position groups operate only through Inter- "Where Is My Vote?”.19 These protests are net and the media, but only few of them now viewed as having started the Green take action to change the regime. Movement. Some of these opposition groups would like the help of the international community to overthrow the government, while others do not want outside interfer- ence out of fear that Iran becomes divided 18 Ellian Afshin, ” Iranians Want Regime Change”, into several smaller nations in a process 30 December 2009, called Balkanization. [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748 703510304574625713733452476.html]. 19 F. Worth Robert & Fatahi Nazila, “Protests Flare in Tehran as Opposition Disputes Vote”, 13 June 2013, [http://www.nytimes. com/2009/06/14/world/middleeast/14iran.html?p agewanted=all&_r=0].

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2.2.2 The Green Movement From that day, the Green Movement was abolished and it went underground. In Iran Green Movement is the name of the Iranian it would not have been possible to demon- protest movement, which started when strate unless part of a really large group of Ahmedinejad was re-elected for presidency people called upon by someone powerful, in 2009. Although the Green Movement is a because the government will not hesitate to real protest movement, a certain paradox open fire. Although the government did remains. open fire during the Green Movement’s Even though most of the participants protests, the people anyway considered it of the Green Movement really want a de- safer than protesting separately. Eventually, mocratic system instead of a theocratic one, the Iranian authorities suppressed the pro- the leaders of the movement are firmly a tests violently and imprisoned the activists part of the ruling system: Mir-Hossein of the group in a brutal manner. Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubui, both cur- In 2013, the Green Movement was rently in house-arrest, were candidates and showing light support to Rouhani, who rivals of Ahmedinejad in the election of eventually won the presidential election. 2009.20 Knowing that all the candidates are The movement’s supporters are satisfied carefully selected by the Supreme Leader their candidate got through, and the election Khamenei, these two man couldn’t be any- wasn’t fraudulent. Many researchers feel thing else than supporters of the system. that the reason no fraud took place is that it Under Ahmadinejad’s first government, was also the current leaders’ wish for Rou- both of these men had high-ranking posi- hani to be elected; it was a strategic decision tions in the parliament. They became the from the Supreme Leader. leaders of the Green Movement because Some political experts view Hassan they were unsatisfied with the election’s re- Rouhani to be to Iran what Mikhail Gor- sult, having hoped to become presidents batšov22 was to the Soviet Union – some- themselves. one who can renew the system politically The people, on the other hand, needed and economically. However, there are also someone powerful to be their mouthpiece many that are opposed to this outlook. against the current conditions.21 So even They – quite accurately – claim that Rouha- though the people knew these two man ni couldn’t step in those shoes, since he were part of the system, they accepted them does not have reformist ideas or urges, and as the leaders of the movement for protec- because all real power ultimately lies in the tion and because it made it possible for hands of Khamenei. them to demonstrate against the re-election A common view among experts on of Ahmadinejad. Iranian politics is that the Green Movement In February 2010, protesters tried to would have been able to change Iran’s cur- organize an event in the support of the rent political system if the international Arab uprising, but they were brutally sup- community would have supported it. The pressed, the Iranian authorities killing many. Green Movement asked for international help to stop the government using force 20 BBC-News, “Iran: Mir Hossein Mousavi and against the protesters, but the international Mehdi Karroubi 'arrested”, 28 February 2011, community did not want to interfere, and [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east- 12599837]. 21 Ellian Afshin, ” Iranians Want Regime Change”, 22 Mikhail Gorbatšov was the starter of the Perest- The Wall Street Journal 30 December 2009, roika. The Perestroika was a process in the Soviet [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748 Union that aimed to renew the political and 703510304574625713733452476.html]. economic system of the USSR.

8 that is the main reason why the government Some sources claim the percentage of Per- was able to suppress the movement.23 sians to be lower than the 61% here pre- sented. Usually it has been agreed that 3 Minorities in Iran around 50% of the population is formed by ethnic minorities, and the rest are ethnic Iran is home to approximately 80 million Persians.25 people who are ethnically, religiously, and In Iran, minorities do not have the right to linguistically diverse. Almost half of the speak their native tongue in an official con- population belong to ethnic minority text or to express their culture in public. groups, such as Turks, Kurds, Balochs, The article 15 of the Constitution of the Is- Turkmen, Arabs, Armenians and so on. The lamic Republic of Iran states that majority of the population is ethnically Per- sian and religiously Shiite Muslim. The only The use of regional and tribal languages in the official language in Iran is Persian, despite it press and mass media, as well as for teaching being the native tongue of roughly only half of their literature in schools, is allowed in ad- of the population. Arabic and English are dition to Persian. widely taught in schools, but the use of the minorities’ native tongue in official con- However, the same article of the Constitu- texts, such as schooling, university studies, tion also clearly defines that Persian is the or litigations, is forbidden. only official language of Iran26: “Official The rights of all minorities are severely documents, correspondence, and texts, as well as trampled on in Iran, which has caused text-books, must be in this language and script”. problems inside the country and to some extent, in its foreign relations as well. For In practice, the teaching of minority lan- this reason, it is important to contemplate guages must be conducted in secret. There the situation with the minorities. are also some magazines that are published in minority languages, but they are sub- 3.1 Ethnic Minorities jected to severe supervision, as all media in In Table 1, we see the ethnic minorities of Iran. the country as reported by the CIA.24 The authorities in Iran think that if civil rights are given to ethnic minorities, Persian 61% Azeri 16% the country will become divided and lose its unity. However, it is usually in countries like Kurd 10% Lur 6% this that the minorities are fighting more Baloch 2% Arab 2% forcefully to gain some degree of independ- Turkmen2% Other 1% ence. The harder Iran is restricting the mi-

Table 1: Iranian ethnic groups. 25 Bolhari Roozbeh and Najibullah Farangis, “Iran's Presidential Candidates Play The Ethnic-Minority Card”, Radio Free Europe 13 September 2013, [http://www.rferl.org/content/Irans_Presidential_ 23 Esfandiari Golnaz, “What Does Iran's Green Candidates_Play_The_EthnicMinority_Card/17494 Movement Want From Obama?”, Radio Free Europe 61.html]. 6 December 2009, [http://www.rferl.org/ 26 The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, content/What_Does_Irans_Green_Movement_ 8 July 2013, [http://www.imj.ir/index.php?option= Want_From_Obama_/1871445.html]. com_content&view=article&id=583:1388-11-17-15 24 Central Intelligence Agency, the World Factbook, -39-46&catid=84:1388-11-03-08-40-10&Itemid= 18 July 2013, [https://www.cia.gov/library/public- 222] & [http://www.alaviandassociates.com/docu- cations/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html]. ments/constitution.pdf].

9 norities’ rights, the more opposed the mi- episode, the Azeris have been peacefully norities become to the central government. cohabiting with the Persians. At the moment, there are thousands of mi- Ever since the revolution of 1979, the nority activists imprisoned for having de- Azeris have maintained close collaboration manded the right to teach their native with the Islamic regime. Even though Turk- tongue and to practice their culture freely. ish and Persian are 100% different lan- The international pressures on Iran to deal guages, the fact that both groups are Shiite with its ethnic minority issues, becomes Muslims have brought them close to each more and more severe as days pass. The po- other. Many of the influential people of litical parties of the ethnic minorities, now modern Iran are in fact Azeris, not Persians, in exile, are in a state of alert just waiting for like the Supreme Leader Khamenei himself. the right moment to conquer their territo- During the last decade, however, the Azeris ries. If the Islamic Republic of Iran is not have been increasingly demanding the rights ready to accept the civil rights of the mi- to use their language and manifest their cul- norities, it is very likely that the country will ture publicly. They have protested several break into smaller territories, in a process times against the government. As a result, called Balkanization. dozens of Azeri activists have been impris- oned. 3.1.1 The Different Ethnicities of Iran Outside Iran, the Azeris have dozens of political parties. They have different Iran’s minorities have dozens of political goals and aspirations. Some want to form parties to represent themselves. They are all an independent Azerbaijan county, while living and working abroad in exile, since in others want to have a self-governed region Iran, it is forbidden for minorities to start within the country. Others want Iran to be- political parties or other form of activism. come a democratic state, where they would The political goals of these parties dif- have all the rights same as the majority of fer widely. Some want to gain independence the population. Neighboring countries Tur- for the territory they occupy in Iran, while key and Azerbaijan have actively supported others want to form a self-government in- some of the exiled Azeri parties, with the side the country. The different parties work hope to promote Pan-Turkish ideology.27 together, but they have no common front. This has worsened the relations between In the following, the exigencies of the dif- Iran and these two neighbors. In the part ferent ethnic minorities of Iran are pre- “7.5 Iran and Azerbaijan”, the relations of sented. these countries are further explained.

3.1.2 Iranian Turks 3.1.3 Kurds Azeris or Turks are the largest ethnic mi- nority of Iran. Religiously they are Shiite All in all, Kurds form a population of 40 Muslims. The Turks of Iran (Azeris) formed million, with their own distinct culture and an independent country, Azerbaijan, in 1946 language. The Kurds live on a stretch of (back then, the country that is now known land divided between Turkey, Iran, Iraq and as Azerbaijan was a part of the Soviet Un- Syria. In the aftermath of the First World ion). The Azerbaijan formed by the Iranian Azeris existed for about one year, before 27 Today’s Zaman, “Iranian Azeris set up national the Iranian army conquered back the terri- council in Turkey, aspire for independence”, 14 May tory and destroyed their republic. After this 2012, [http://www.todayszaman.com/news-280353 -iranian-azeris-set-up-national-council-in-turkey- aspire-for-independence.html].

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War, the winner countries draw borders in Crisis of 1946, also Known as the Iran- the Middle-East. Some places with less than Azerbaijan Crisis 30.000 inhabitants became independent states (such as ), but the Kurdish During the World War II, in 1946, the So- area was divided between the four states viet Union and Great-Britain had occupied mentioned above. It is commonly thought Iran in order to guarantee the control and that the reason for the unfounded divisions management of Iranian oil. With the help of were economic and political interests of the the Soviet Union, the Kurds and Azeris of Western countries, who wanted to be able Iran were able to form the self-governed re- to practice “divide and rule” politics in the gions of Kurdistan and Azerbaijan in Iran. Middle-East area.28 These regions existed for less than a year, Nowadays the Kurds are fighting for until the Soviet Union made a deal on oil their rights in Turkey and Iran. In Iraq, trade with the Iranian government. As a they’ve obtained autonomy which has ex- consequence, it stopped supporting the isted since 1991. Resulting from the civil Kurds and Turks of Iran. After that, the war in Syria, at the moment the Kurds are Iranian army abolished the Kurdish and governing their own territories and have a de Turkish governments and executed their facto autonomy.29 In other parts of the leaders, putting an end to the era of self- Kurdistan area, the situation has not govern.30 evolved and the conditions are similar to Since then, Kurdish formed armed those in the days following the First World guerilla groups and started fighting against War. The situation in Iran regarding the the central government, represented by the Kurdish minority is also very tense. Shah at that time. Now, they mostly wish to establish a self-governed region of Kurdi- Iranian Kurds stan, similar to that of modern Iraq. The Kurds are collaborating with other ethnic There are about 10 million . minorities who have the same wish. They live mostly near the Iraqi and Turkish borders, in an area that is referred to by the Kurds under the Islamic Republic of Iran Kurds as “Eastern Kurdistan”. The Iranian Kurds have actively tried to obtain equal In the early 1980’s, Kurdish representatives civil rights compared to Persians during the started negotiations with the Islamic Repub- last 100 years. Since they have not suc- lic of Iran, in order to obtain basic civil ceeded in obtaining civil rights in a peaceful rights. The negotiations did not last long, manner, the Kurds have been engaging in since the government flatly refused any an armed battle against the Iranian govern- form of self-government to be formed in ment for over 50 years. the Kurdish region. Since then, a war has been going on between Kurdish guerilla fighters and the Islamic government, caus- ing thousands of casualties in both parties. 28 For more information see the following report: “ At the present moment, the base for The treaty of peace between the Allied and the Kurdish guerilla fighters is located in the Associated Powers and Turkey signed at SÈVRES Kurdistan federation of Northern Iraq. Out 10 August 1920, [http://www.fransamaltingvon- of all the Kurdish political parties, PJAK geusau.com/documents/dl1/h1/1.1.18.pdf]. 29 Burch Jonathon, ” Syrian Kurds take fragile steps towards autonomy”, 2 August 2013, 30 McDowall David, “A modern history of the [http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/02/us- Kurds”, p. 231, I.B.Tauris & Co Ltd 2007 London. syria-crisis-kurds-idUSBRE9710B320130802].

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(The Party of Free Life of Kurdistan) is the lochs remain one of the most discriminated only one to have had armed confrontations minorities of Iran. Their region is said to be with the Iranian government during the past the poorest and underdeveloped of the couple of years.31 whole country, with a higher infant mortal- ity rate and lower life expectation than any- 3.1.4 Iranian Arabs where else in Iran. The Balochs are fighting for their Approximately 2% of the Iranian popula- rights against the Iranian government. Most tion are Arabs, most of them Shiite Mus- of the death penalties attributed between lims. Same as the other minorities, it is for- 2004 and 2009 have been to Balochs. Politi- bidden for the Arabs to be educated in their cal parties such as People’s Resistance native tongue. However, since the Koran is Movement of Iran (PRMI) are fighting to written originally in Arab, the language is establish a self-governed region to the Ba- widely taught in all Iranian schools. lochistan.33 There have been suicide bomb- Most Iranian Arabs live in the coastal ings and violent confrontations between Ba- regions of southern Iran by the Persian lochs and Persians. Gulf, which is rich in natural resources. Most of the Iranian minorities have This is one of the reasons why Iran is similar hopes; they are against a strong, cen- strictly trying to “Persianize” the Arab mi- tral government, and demand power to be nority, in order to have secure access to the shared to include also real representation of riches. The Arabs in Iran are fighting for ethnic minorities. Iran cannot become a their rights as the other minorities are, democratic country as long as the minorities against the Iranian government. Parties such wishes are not taken into account. With the as al-Ahwaz Arab People's Democratic situation going on like this, Iran is con- Front are striving to get the Arab region in- stantly on the verge of a civil war. The situa- dependent from the rest of the country.32 tion of religious minorities is far from being any better, as we shall see in the following. 3.1.5 Iranian Baloch 3.2 The Religious Minorities in Iran The Baloch are a people whose territory is now divided between Iran, Pakistan and Contrary to what is commonly thought, Is- Afghanistan. They form about 2% of the lam is not the only tolerated religion in Iran, Iranian population. In Iran, most of the Ba- although Muslims do form 98% of the Ira- loch population lives in southern parts of nian population. Out of these, some 89% the country, near the Pakistan border, in a are Shiite, the rest being Sunni. Christian, region called Balochistan. Zoroastrian34, and Jewish communities con- The Baloch are mostly Sunni Muslims, stitute 2% of the population. which causes a lot of trouble for them in a When studying these figures one must country ruled by Shiites. For the Balochs, keep in mind that every Iranian must belong religion is reported to have more impor- to one of the groups mentioned above ac- tance than their ethnicity. Nonetheless, Ba- cording to the Iranian law. It is impossible to declare to be atheist, Hindu or Buddhist,

31 Ken Timmerman, “Iranian Troops Attack Kurdish Camps in Iraq”, 19 July 2011, [http:// 33 Zurutuza Karlos, “Inside Iran’s Most Secretive www.newsmax.com/kentimmerman/nourial-maliki- Region”, The Diplomat, 16 May 2011, [http://the- iran-iraq-kurds/2011/07/19/id/404082]. diplomat.com/2011/05/16/insideiran%E2%80%9 32 Ahwazi People's Democratic Front, 1 August 9s-most-secretive-region/]. 2013, [http://www.adpf.org/AR/]. 34 Yarsan, [http://www.ahle-haqq.com/intro.html].

12 for instance. Thus, inside these religious The situation of those belonging to the groups are many non-believers, and the religious minorities of the country is diffi- number of real believers would be much cult. They face severe, direct discrimination. lower. Also members of some other reli- For instance, an Iranian being anything gious minorities might be forced to declare other than Shiite Muslim has no right to run themselves as something else, distorting the for presidency, and their access to any other figures even more. For instance Baha’is, key-position is restricted. Only Shiite Mus- presented in the CIA’s table below, is now a lims have the right to propagate their reli- forbidden religion and they do not have the gious ideology. It is forbidden to convert right to declare to be practicing it. from Islam to other religions, but according to the law religious minorities are allowed to Muslim (official) 98% Other (includes Zoro- convert to Islam. If a Shiite Muslim would (Shia 89%, Sunni 9%) astrian, Jewish, Chris- convert, he would be named a Mortad tian, Yarsan and Baha'i) (Apostasy in Islam), would face execution and after that, his possessions would be di- 2% vided among the Islamic community. The legislation is different depending Table 2: Iranian religious groups according to on whether a crime has been committed by the CIA.35 a Muslim or a representative of another re- ligion. They can also vary in accordance of Iran is known for its strict attitude towards the religion of the victim. Non-Muslims are the practicing of religion. Especially the treated as second-class citizens, and there situation of those who do not belong to any are many laws proving this. For example, if of the officially accepted religious groups a Muslim man commits adultery with a (Shiite, Sunni, Jewish, Christian and Zoroas- Muslim woman, he is punished by 100 trian) is one of concern. lashes. However, if the man is non-Muslim, The International Human Rights Fed- he faces death penalty according to the Ar- eration FIDH (la Fédération Internationale des ticle 88 of the Civil Code. This clearly indi- Ligues des Droits de l’Homme) has expressed cates that the life of a Muslim is perceived their concern over the poor situation of re- more valuable than that of a non-Muslim. ligious minorities in Iran in their report dat- And there are plenty more examples. In ing from 2003. Although ten years have cases of homicides, there is “blood money” passed since the publication of “Discrimina- that should be paid to the victim’s family. tion against religious minorities in Iran”, lit- The sum is twice as high if the victim has tle has changed since in the country in the been a Muslim man, compared to a member field of religious freedom, with the constitu- of the recognized religious minorities, or of tion remaining unaltered during this decade. a female victim. The Civil Code forbids the FIDH’s report states the situation of reli- marriage between a Muslim woman and a gious minorities in Iran to be “alarming”. non-Muslim man, but a Muslim man is al- According to the document, they “are vic- lowed to take a non-Muslim wife. 37 These tims of discrimination on a daily basis both in law and in practice”.36

Ligues des Droits de l’Homme), August 2003, 35 Central Intelligence Agency, the World Factbook, [http://www.fidh.org/IMG/pdf/ir0108a.pdf]. 18 July 2013, [https://www.cia.gov/library/publica- 37 Discrimination against religious minorities in tions/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html]. IRAN, FIDH (la Fédération Internationale des 36 Discrimination against religious minorities in Ligues des Droits de l’Homme), August 2003, IRAN, FIDH (la Fédération Internationale des [http://www.fidh.org/IMG/pdf/ir0108a.pdf].

13 are just a couple of examples from a vast ar- ingly poor, the civil rights of ethnic and reli- ray of discriminative laws. gious minorities are continuously trampled The Iranian government is controlling on, and prisons are filled with political dis- the media and Internet. Through them, it sidents. Doctor Shaheed calls for the inter- targets regularly the religious minorities with national attention to be brought on these negative campaigning. The Iranian Ministry matters and a response towards these viola- of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) super- tions.39 vises closely the religious minority groups It is hard to believe that the situation and their relations with foreign countries. of the minorities could ameliorate as long as They are especially interested in knowing if the system is theocratic, because structural anyone is collaborating with Israel or the change remains impossible. All current rules West. According to FIDH, the Iranian au- draw from the Koran; and it is strictly for- thorities have closed down dozens of bidden to contest what is written in the holy churches and other holy places of the reli- book or “update” the content, even on an gious minorities of the country. They also ideological level. The theocratic rulers are have imprisoned thousands of non- strictly against any discussion on democra- Muslims. FIDH urges the international tizing the country and any attempt to guar- community to put pressure on the Iranian antee safe and peaceful existence for the authorities in order to ameliorate the situa- minority groups. Calls for democracy simply tion of the religious minorities and to free cannot be met in a theocracy. their imprisoned members.38 The theocratic system in Iran leans on 4 the rules of Islam, according to which members of other religious groups are infi- 94 percent of Iranian women attend school, dels and Islam is the only religion everyone and women comprise over 60% of all uni- should be following or convert into. As versity graduates. Yet, the women of the long as Iran is governed in a theocratic way, country are systematically discriminated it is impossible to change the policy they are against, and are unequal to men in regards conducting against religious minorities. The of the legislation. In the Article 21 of the rulers now are convinced that theocracy is Iranian Constitution, it is stated that "the better than democracy. They are justifying government must ensure the rights of this by claiming that Islam guarantees a women in all respects, in conformity with good life also after this one, if followed to Islamic criteria”.40 It is that Islamic criteria, the letter. For over 30 years now, different however, that allows to discriminate against international organs have been questioning women. the policy led by Iran on ethnic and reli- First of all, the Constitution of the Is- gious minorities. lamic Republic does not treat women as in- Doctor Ahmed Shaheed, the UN re- porter specialized in human rights issues, 39 “Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situati- revealed a document in February 2013 re- on of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran”, porting the human rights violations that are 28 February 2013, [http://www.ohchr.org/Docu- taking place in Iran. The report states that ments/HRBodies/HRCouncil/RegularSession/Sess situation regarding human rights is alarm- ion22/A-HRC-22-56_en.pdf]. 40 The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 8 July 2013, [http://www.imj.ir/index.php?option= 38 FIDH (International Federation for Human com_content&view=article&id=583:1388-11-17- Rights)Resolution on human rights violations, 2 15-39-46&catid=84:1388-11-03-08-40-10&Itemid August 2013, http://www.fidh.org/iran-resolutions =222] & [http://www.alaviandassociates.com/do- -on-human-rights-violations-13754 cuments/constitution.pdf].

14 dependent human beings, but as dependent - Women must wear the Islamic Hejab42 of their husbands. The man is the leader when outside, otherwise she will be and can make decisions about the woman’s strictly punished. life. When an Iranian woman is born, her - Women cannot run for presidency nor faith has already been decided since accord- act as priests. ing to the Koran and thus the Islamic Re- - Women cannot be the head of the jus- publics laws, she is inferior to the man. tice department. Their access to most of According to Islam, the primary role of the key-positions in the country is re- the woman is to take care of the household stricted. and children and serve her husband. Chil- - The age of criminal responsibility for dren should be brought up according to the women is 9 years, compared to 15 for Koran’s principles. Koran is an advocate for men. the men, since it is written that women - The husband is allowed to ban his wife should be proper wives and mothers and from working in any technical profes- submit themselves to their husband’s will. It sion if he is able to prove that his wife’s is also written that if the women is unable job affects their family life or his wife’s to fulfill her husband’s needs and desires, character. the husband is allowed to take a new wife, - In 2013, a new regulation was passed, and can be married to up to four women at banning women the possibility to study the time. Women are of course allowed only certain subjects. The justification was one husband, no matter the circumstances. that these subjects “are not compatible To divorce is a decision the man can take with the general character of women”. alone, regardless of the woman’s opinion. It These banned subjects include courses is also possible for the woman to file for di- on engineering, data man- vorce, but the process is much more com- agement, communications, emergency plex and they are more unlikely to be medical technology, mechanical engi- granted it. Regarding inheritance, women in neering, law, political sciences, policing, Iran are entitled to half of what the men will social sciences, and religious studies. get. - Women cannot transfer nationality and There are many more gender- citizenship to their husbands or chil- discriminating restrictions in Iran. Most of dren, which has rendered stateless thou- the restrictions draw from the Koran, and sands of children of Iranian women who the ideology according to which man is su- have married Afghan or Iraqi refugees, perior, listed as follows41 : as well as expatriate Iranian women married to non-Iranians. - Married women require their husband's permission to apply for a passport. An Besides these legislative restrictions, women unmarried woman below 40 years old are discriminated in softer ways in the em- can only have a passport with the writ- ployment market. For instance, women are ten consent of her parents. overrepresented in lower skilled jobs and vastly underrepresented in higher skilled jobs. Besides, women cannot hold public office above the municipal level and tradi- 41 United Nations Human Rights Council, “Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran”, 28 February 42 BBC News, “Hijab”, 3 September.2009, [http:// 2013, [http://www.iranrights.org/english/ www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/islam/beliefs/ attachments/doc_4249.pdf]. hijab_1.shtml].

15 tionally earn less than their male counter- cause international disapproval or indigna- parts in similar jobs. In fact, it has been re- tion back then.47 ported that only 32% of Iranian women are Things changed when the anti-West Is- actively engaged in the labor market, com- lamic government took over. For decades pared to 73% of men.43 now, the enriching of uranium in Iran has Until recently, Iranian universities have been drawing the attention and concern of been a place where women and men have the international community.48 Since 2003, been studying together, after having fol- the enriching has driven Iran into an ongo- lowed schooling in segregated groups. ing conflict with the international commu- However, in 2013, the decision was made to nity, because there are severe suspicions segregate women from men also in the uni- that Iran is enriching uranium for the pur- versities.44 pose of building a . What is The status of women in Islamic coun- causing these suspicions is the fact that Iran tries, especially Iran, cannot be changed wants to enrich uranium itself, even though unless the Islamic laws are abolished. Most can be purchased abroad of the Iranian women are extremely un- for a low price. Iran is claiming that it is happy with the current situation and are producing only uranium that is enriched to demanding their rights at all possible a low-level, suitable for reactors and medical turns.45 Many liberal people are condemned research. However, the exact same tech- in Iran, and prisons are full of both men niques can be used to enrich uranium to a and women who have been trying to change high-level, needed in the manufacturing of the women’s status.46 atomic weapons.

5 Iran’s 5.1 The Cat-and-Mouse Game Against International Authorities Iran’s nuclear power program begun under the Shah Reza Pahlavi’s regime in the The Iranian authorities claim that enriching 1960’s, and rapidly developed during the uranium up to 20% is an international following decade. Since the Shah was an ally right.49 They state that they have no inten- of the West, the nuclear program did not tion of breaking international laws by en- riching uranium for the procurement of nu- clear weapons.50 However, according to the Institute for 43 United Nations Human Rights Council, “Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human Science and International Security, Iran is rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran”, 28 February 2013, [http://www.iranrights.org/english/ 47 The , June 2013, [http:// attachments/doc_4249.pdf]. www.nti.org/country-profiles/iran/ nuclear/]. 44 FIDH (International Federation for Human 48 Iran watch, “A 's Nuclear Rights) Resolution on human rights violations, 2 Program”, 1 March.2012, [http://www.iranwatch. August 2013, [http://www.fidh.org/iran-resolutions org/our-publications/weapon-program-background -on-human-rights-violations-13754]. -report/history-irans-nuclear-program]. 45 The , “Iranian Women Wait for 49 George Marcus and Hosseinian Zahra, “Iran will Freedom, 30 Years After Islamic Revolution”, VOA destroy Israeli cities if attacked: Khamenei”, Reuters 2 November 2009, [http://www.voanews.com/ 21 March 2013, [http://www.reuters.com/article/ conent/a-13-2009-01-29-voa52-68711712/409584. 2013/03/21/us-iran-khameneiidUSBRE92K0LA html]. 201303 21]. 46 Esfandiari Golnaz, “Women's Rights Activists 50 Presses-TV, “Ahmadinejad: 20% enrichment, Tell Rohani What They Want”, Radio Free Europe Iran’s right under intl. law”, [http://www.presstv. 14 September 2013, [http://www.rferl.org/con- ir/detail/2012/05/30/243877/iran-20-enrichment- tent/iran-rohani-women-demands/25045159.html]. legal-right/].

16 expected to achieve a “critical capability” to In the following, these ideas are further de- produce sufficient weapon-grade uranium veloped.52 by mid-2014, without being detected. Iran In its pursuit for a nuclear weapon, has firm plans to install thousands of new Iran is leaning to the Koran’s verses, which centrifuges in its centrifuge sites, which is urge to prepare oneself against enemies, and thought to be because it needs more en- to better equip oneself compared to them. riched uranium for building a nuclear Iran is interpreting this as a request to ob- weapon. The same report also urges for tain a nuclear weapon, since its enemies the more sanctions, negotiations and “increased U.S. and Israel also have one. Iran’s Su- frequency of international inspections”, in preme Leader repeats often the following order to stop Iran from building nuclear verse of the Koran, especially when he tries weapon.51 to speed up the process of building the The P5+1 group (USA, France, UK, weapon53: , and Germany) have gathered many times in order to find a suitable solu- Against them, make ready your strength to tion to the Iranian nuclear problem. In Sep- the utmost of your power, including steeds of tember 2013, the negotiations have not led war, to strike terror into (the hearts of) the to any results. Most of the Western negotia- enemies, of Allah and your enemies. tors and experts on nuclear programs have stopped believing that the issue could be Thus, according to Khamenei, the Islamic solved through negotiations. Iran is playing Republic of Iran needs to acquire the new- a cat-and-mouse game with the P5+1 coun- est weapons, in order to be able to defend tries and the monitors of the International itself. Khamenei claims that even the late Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran allows founder of the Islamic Republic, Khomeini, for the monitors to visit some of its nuclear had decided to reactivate the nuclear pro- power plants, but denies access to some gram.54 others. In addition, Iran is believed to have Israel, India and Pakistan are all close dozens of secret nuclear power plants, to Iran and have nuclear weapons. Khame- which are under the direct control of Iran’s nei does not see why Iran shouldn’t have Supreme Leader. one as well. The idea is that if Iran has its own nuclear weapons, no one would be 5.2 Is Iran Really Building Nuclear able to attack the country. Of course all Weapons? other Middle-Eastern states are against the idea of Iran having its own nuclear weap- Iran is in fact pursuing its capability to ons. manufacture nuclear weapons, because the local authorities feel it is their “religious duty”. They also see it as a way to have for- ever control over Iran and become an un- contested Great Power in the Middle East. 52 W. Sherrill Clifton, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 19, No. 1, March 2012, [http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs /npr_19-1_ sherrill_iran_bomb.pdf]. 51 Albright David & Walrond Christina, “Priority is 53 Quran, chapter: al-Anfal, evidence:60, [http:// limiting the number and type of centrifuges at library.islamweb.net/newlibrary/display_book.php? , Fordow, and any other centrifuge site Iran flag=1&bk_no=132&ID=2700]. may now be constructing”, Institute for Science and 54 International for Science and International International Security 30 May 2013, [http://isis- Security, 20 April 2012, [http://isis-online.org/up- online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/critical loads/isis-reports/documents/Khamenei_1984 _capability_op-ed_30July2013.pdf]. _statement_20April2012.pdf].

17

Israel is especially against Iran having a tion. In this case, it is likely that scenario B nuclear weapon.55 Since Iran does not ap- shall come true. prove of the existence of Israel, the nuclear weapons might pose a real threat to Israel. 5.3 In 1981, Israel attacked Iraq and destroyed their nuclear facilities. Experts believe that After the negotiations with Iran on their if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Israel nuclear program failed to bring results, the would repeat the scenario of 1981 and West has imposed massive sanctions upon would attack to destroy the nuclear equip- Iran. These sanctions affect all areas of life, ment. 56 Iran is not deaf for these threats; it regarding the normal people as well as the has stated that if Israel attacks its nuclear state. The purpose of the sanctions is to facilities, it is going to attack back until Is- pressurize Iran to give up enriching ura- rael is completely destroyed. 57 nium and to stop the country from develop- The general opinion is that Iran is not ing nuclear weapons. The sanctions target going to stop enriching uranium, and wants especially the import and export of oil and to build nuclear weapons no matter the gas, which are areas that the economy of cost. The opposing side formed by the in- Iran relies heavily on. ternational community, especially the U.S., Since Iran’s biggest income comes U.K., France, Israel and Arab states and all from selling oil and gas, the sanctions have their allies, are strongly against Iran’s ambi- a huge impact on the state economy. As a tions. If Iran was to build an atomic bomb, result, Iran’s economy is facing its biggest it could jeopardize the whole world, and es- crisis in a long time. The Iranians have to pecially the Middle East. Dealing with a deal with an extraordinary high percentage theocratic state with nuclear weapons is not of unemployment, while the prices of eve- something the international community ryday goods are rocketing. wants. The U.S. authorities claim that the There are two ways to solve the prob- sanctions are not targeted towards the peo- lem caused by Iran’s nuclear program: A) ple, only towards the rulers. The economy The rest of the world must accept Iran as a of Iran is completely in the hands of the po- nuclear power, B) The international com- litical elite and their close inner circle. While munity puts an end to Iran’s nuclear pro- the sanctions are aimed at them, they also gram with political and ultimately military have a major impact on the everyday life of means. All the signs are pointing towards the local people. the fact that scenario A just is not an op- One of the reasons President Rouhani was elected, was that he should find through negotiations a common path with the West and thus the international com- 55 Shmulovich Michal, “Most Mideast countries do munity would lighten or cease the sanctions. not want a nuclear Iran, poll finds”, Times of Israel, 6 However, a common path is likely to be March.2013, [http://www.timesofisrael.com/ most-mideast-countries-dont-want-a-nuclear-iran/]. found only when Iran stops enriching ura- 56 H. Kahl Colin, “Before attacking Iran, Israel nium. Iran is not likely to do that. It re- should learn from its 1981 strike on Iraq”, mains to be seen whether Rouhani, an ex- Washington Post 2 March 2012, [http://articles. was- perienced diplomat and negotiator, is able hingtonpost.com/2012-03-02/opinions/354 to persuade the West to abolish the sanc- 50430_1_nuclear-weapons-israeli-strike-tuwaitha]. 57 Press-TV, “Iran will raze Tel Aviv to ground if tions. That is likely to be the only way to Israel attacks: Ayatollah Khamenei”, 21 March save Iran’s economy. In addition, Israel has 2013, [http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/03/21 /294655/iran-will-raze-israel-to-ground-in-war/].

18 vowed to attack Iran if the country does not Iraq, have been attributed to Iranian- put an end to its nuclear program. made weapons. - A set of classified documents leaked by 6 Iran and Terrorism the website WikiLeaks.org in July 2010 reports extensive collaboration between The U.S. and many other countries accuse Iran and the Taliban, Afghan warlords, Iran of supporting terrorists and fundamen- and al-Qaeda, but all the claims have not tal Islamic groups. Iran is also accused of been corroborated (Guardian). killing members of its own opposition. For - Iran has also been blamed for attacks in instance, stated in March Balochistan in Pakistan. 2006 that Iran has been actively supporting - In April 2011, the United States and the terrorist groups like in Lebanon. European Union accused the Quds For this reason, in October 2007, the U.S. Force of providing equipment and sup- added Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps port to help the Syrian regime suppress (IRGC) to its list of foreign terrorist organi- revolts in Syria. zations and has kept on demanding for the - In October 2011, Washington accused to be respected and the of plotting to assassi- tightened. nate the Saudi ambassador (NYT) to the According to the Council on Foreign United States, and plotting to bomb the Relations, the link between Iran and terror- Israeli Embassy in Washington and the ism dates back to 1984. Among Iran's al- Saudi and Israeli Embassies in Argen- leged terrorist activities have been the fol- tina. lowing58: Iran denies strictly all of these accusations. - Observers say Iran had prior knowledge It claims to be itself a victim of international of Hezbollah attacks, such as the 1988 terrorism, and to be an actor in the war kidnapping and murder of Colonel Wil- against terrorism. liam Higgins, a U.S. Marine involved in In November 2011, two Iranian men a UN observer mission in Lebanon, and were caught in the United-States for their the 1992 and 1994 bombings of Jewish intent to murder the Ambassador to Saudi- cultural institutions in . Arabia, causing a stir in the press. This - Iran still has a price on the head of the event led to the US wanting tighter sanc- Indian-born British novelist Salman tions against Iran, asking all of their allies to Rushdie for what Iranian leaders call join them in their request. Two days after blasphemous writings about Islam in his the men were caught, Ahmadinejad, who 1989 novel The Satanic Verses. was president of Iran at that time, denied in - U.S. officials say Iran supported the a TV show that the men had any intentions group behind the 1996 truck bombing of killing the ambassador, claiming that only of Khobar Towers, a U.S. military resi- uncivilized nations practice acts of terror- dence in , which killed nine- ism, claiming that Iran has never committed teen U.S. servicemen. any terrorist acts. According to President - Military officials say numerous attacks Ahmadinejad, the U.S. only tries to frighten since 2001 on U.S. and NATO troops in Iran and prepare for war. He also stated Afghanistan, and coalition forces in

58 Bruno Greg, “State Sponsors: Iran”, Council on Foreign Relations 13 October 2011, [http://www. cfr.org/iran/state-sponsors-iran/p9362#p2].

19 that Iran is strong and will ”cut the arms” relations with the East camp, especially of those who try to attack the country.59 Russia (or U.S.S.R. at the time of the revo- According to the TV show in question, lution) and China. These two countries re- it seems that the president Ahmadinejad has main the major allies of Iran to this day, conveniently “forgotten” that Iran has sup- even if the country has also a political ported terrorism many times in the past. agenda of its own. The best-known example of this took place It is been reported that Khamenei’s in Europe. It was the murdering of an Ira- viewpoints on the Iranian foreign policy in- nian Kurdish party leader in Berlin in 1992. clude61: The European authorities revealed that Ira- nian diplomats were behind the murder, - Principle of exporting the revolution which led to the EU cutting all diplomatic - Principle of “no domination” ties with Iran. Another act of terrorism - Defending the integrity of Islam and committed by Iran happened in August Muslims 1981, when Iranian agents murdered a for- - Principle of mutual respect and non- mer Iranian prime minister, Shapour Bak- interference in other countries’ affairs htiar, in his own heavily guarded house out- - Principle of negating oppression and 60 side of Paris. This led to the worsening of supporting the oppressed the Iran-France relations. One must bear in - No East, No West principle mind that for many solved cases that prove - Helping liberation movements the link between an act of terrorism and - Unity of the Islamic ummah Iranian authorities, there are many cases - that remain unclear or unsolved that are Relations based on Islamic and human likely to have been executed by Iran. principles

7 Iranian Foreign Policy In reality, many of these viewpoints have not been pursued at all and have been When the Islamic Revolution took place in claimed by Khomeini for cosmetic pur- 1979, the spirit of the Cold War was still poses. Out of these viewpoints, the Islamic strongly present in the area. Most of the Republic has been focusing on spreading its countries belonged either to the East’s or own ideology and suppressing dissidents, the West’s ideological camps. In 1979, the i.a. by focusing on the following acts: Iranian rulers were led by Khomeini’s Is- lamic principles, and tried to create a for- - Supporting Islamist groups62, especially eign policy for Iran that was ”Neither East Shiites, in their efforts to spread the Is- nor West; [but] Islamic Republic”. This lamic revolution and implementation of never materialized, because Iran has good the Sharia law around the world.63

61 Mir-Khalili Seyed Javad, “Imam Khomeini’s 59 “The Iranian president talks to Al Jazeera's Tony Viewpoints on Iranian Foreign Policy”, Iranreview 28 Harris about the latest diplomatic spat with the US May 2008, [http://www.iranreview.org/content/ and Saudi Arabia, the Arab spring, and Iranian Documents/Imam_Khomeini%E2%80%99s_View politics.” Al-Jazeera 6 June 2012, [http://www.you- points_on_Iranian_Foreign_Policy.htm]. tube.com/watch?v=gQoLJR6Sbj8]. 62 The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 60 Dickey Christopher, “Analysis: Iran's spies are article 152–155, [http://www.alaviandassociates. losing the shadow war with US and Israel”, The com/documents/constitution.pdf]. Telegraph 7 August 2012, [http://www.telegraph. 63 Islamic Revolution in Leader's message to Bashar co.uk/journalists/the-dailybeast/9460370/Analysis- al-Asad, Shafaf March 2013, [http://shafaf.ir/fa/ Irans-spies-are-losing-the-shadow-war-with-US- news/184361/%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9 and-Israel.html]. %85-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%B9-

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- Gaining more influence and power in gram. China and Russia on the other the Islamic world by spreading anti- hand have economic interests in keeping Israel ideology.64 Iran as their partner. - Stopping the principles of democracy - Bringing chaos to neighboring countries: from spreading in the Middle-East and Iran tries to bring chaos in its surround- North-Africa by spreading negative ing countries in order to fool the inter- propaganda65 on the Western princi- national community. If there are many ples.66 crises, focus will not be placed on the - Being a partner of Russia and China: discontentment of the Iranians towards Even though Iran officially is a member- their rulers.69 state of the Non-Aligned Movement - Wanting to become a nuclear power by (NAM)67, in practice Iran is a partner of developing its own nuclear program – China and Russia.68 Iran’s interest in this Iran sees this as a means to become an alliance is to block or diminish the invincible Great Power.70 flooding of Western influences in the - Scaring and silencing dissidents and Middle East and North Africa region, enemies in all corners of the world and to carry on with its nuclear pro- through acts of terrorism.71 - Practicing double standards in regards of its nuclear program.72 %D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7 %D9%86%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A8- During the almost 40 years of the Islamic %D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85 %DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87- republic, Iran has strived to gain influence %D8%A8%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1- and stuck with its principle not to collabo- %D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AF]. rate with the West. In the following, the 64 Erdbrink Thomas, “Khamenei: Iran will back ‘any policy Iran adopts towards some key coun- nations, any groups’ fighting Israel”, Washington Post tries is briefly presented. 3 February 2012, [http://articles.washingtonpost. com/2012-02-03/world/35445760_1_supreme-lea- der-resumption-of-nuclear-talks-nuclear-facilities]. 7.1 Iran and Israel 65 Khabar Online, “Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameneis speech about the democracy”, June Iran argues that Israel is behind all the 2012, [http://www.khabaronline.ir/detail/ problems in the Middle East, and would73 173749/]. happily see the country being erased off the 66 Rasa News Agency “Ayatollah Khamenei led the 74 Liberal Democracy bases into passivity”, 10 June world’s map. The feeling of hate is mu- 2013, [http://www.rasanews.ir/En/NSite /FullStory/News/?Id=292]. 69 For more information, see chapter 7.1. of this 67 The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM): [http:// document www.nam.gov.za/background/members.htm]. 70 W. Sherrill Clifton, [http://cns.miis.edu/npr/ 68 Nazemroaya Mahdi Darius, Confrontation pdfs/npr_19-1_sherrill_iran_bomb.pdf], Nonproli- between military blocs: The Eurasian “Triple feration Review, Vol. 19, No. 1, March 2012, Alliance.” The Strategic Importance of Iran for [http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/npr_19-1_sherrill_ Russia and China”, Globalresearch 23 January 2012, iran_bomb.pdf]. [http://www.globalresearch.ca/confrontation-bet- 71 For more information, see chapter 6 of this ween-military-blocs-the-eurasian-triple-alliance-the- document. strategic-importance-of-iran-for-russia-and-china/ 72 For more information, see chapter 5 of this 28790]. document. Leverett Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett, “Towards 73 Ynet-News, “Khamenei: 'Tumor' of Israel is a Russia -China -Iran Military Alliance?”, Globalre- world's biggest problem”, 19 August 2012, [http:// search 5 February 2010, [http://www.Globalre- www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4270418,00. search. ca/towards-a-russia-china-iran-military-alli- html]. ance/17471]. 74 Keinon Herb, Paraszczuk Joanna, ”Khamenei:

21 tual, as Israel sees Iran as the mother of ter- Historic reasons rorist groups and a country that keeps on adding to the political conflicts of the Mid- Before the Islamic revolution of 1979, the dle East. The roots of the Israeli-Iranian ruler of Iran Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi conflict are religious and historical, but it is maintained good relations with Israel. They also a conflict on who can be the “supreme formed together a coalition that was the leader” of the region and who has the most counterforce to the Pan-Arabic Nationalist powerful friends. In the following, these movement that raised its head in that times, reasons are explained a little further. and collaborated peacefully on various top- ics. Shah was the enemy of Khomeini, so Religious reasons when he took power all the allies under Shah’s regime were considered as enemies. Ever since Islam was born, there have been Before the revolution, Iran used to be problems between Muslims and Jews. In an ally with Israel, the U.S.A. and the West. many different parts of the Koran, it is writ- Shah’s government worked in collaboration ten that Jews have betrayed God, and that with its allies to help combat Islamist they are enemies of Islam, Allah and groups. So when Khomeini took power, he Prophet Mohammed. According to Mus- was especially resentful of this fact and saw lims, Koran has been directly sent from Al- this as one more reason to hate Israel and lah to all humans. Those who follow the Iran’s past Western allies. Khomeini Koran to the letter believe that everyone claimed that Israel ran under the Shah’s ap- should follow Islam, Koran, and the rules proval an Intelligence Service organ called of the religion. Thus some Islamic groups, SAVAK that he stated to have committed rulers and fervent believers have a difficult all kinds of criminal acts on Iranians, espe- time accepting Jews, who they consider as cially liberals that were opposed to the their enemy by default.75 Shah. According to present Iranian rulers, The foreign policy of the Islamic Re- before the revolution of 1979, Israel and the public of Iran is in accordance to Prophet U.S. gave their support to the Shah’s sup- Mohammed’s words in the Koran. This for- porters, who were against the forming of eign policy does not accept Jewish people. the Islamic Republic. Present rulers of Iran This is one of the reasons why Iran does blame the U.S. and Israel on having stolen not approve the existence of Israel and Iranian natural resources such as gas and oil wishes to see it destroyed. when they were collaborating with the Shah’s regime. After the Islamic Republic of Iran was founded, Israel immediately lost its ally and saw it turn into an extremist Islamic state that wishes to see Israel destroyed.

Zionist regime will disappear from map”, Jerusalem Post 15 August 2012, [http://www.jpost.com/ The relations between Israel and Iran after 1979 Iranian-Threat/News/Khamenei-Zionist-regime- will-disap-pear-from-map]. See also, Ayatollah After 1979, the good relations between the Seyyed Ahmad Alam a-Hoda, member of the countries stopped to a halt. With its oil Assembly of Experts of the Supreme Leader: Our money, Iran revived all Shiite extremist goal is to erase Israel from the world map, Raja- News 30 September.2013, [http://www.rajanews. groups and started to pose a real threat to com/ detail.asp?id=156163]. the existence of Israel. The Islamic Republic 75 Quran, [http://www.barkati.net/quran of Iran is the ally of al-Assad’s Syria, and /Translation/holyquran017.htm].

22 together they support anti-Israel groups Israel off the map if it ever tried to attack such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is es- Iran.79 pecially concerned about the nuclear weap- ons Iran might have in the future. What are the options for Iran and Israel? Iran also blames Israel of supporting several antirevolutionary groups, including There are two likely scenarios between Iran Mujahed’s Khalq Organizaition (MKO), the and Israel: a peaceful one, or a one that in- Kurdish Free Life Party of Kurdistan volves military action. The current situation (PJAK) and the Baluchi group Jundullah, reminds that of India and Pakistan some which are fighting against the Iranian gov- years ago, when they almost ran into war ernment. Israel denies these accusations.76 because of their disagreement over who Iran feels that Israel together with U.S. should own nuclear weapons. A power bal- and their allies want to overthrow the Is- ance was finally established between both lamic government. The cold war has been nuclear countries and their relations were going on for 34 years between Iran and Is- stabilized. This can also happen between Is- rael. Until now (2013) it has not turned into rael and Iran, if Israel approves of Iran’s proper military action yet, but has been nuclear program, and Iran would accept the fought through Hezbollah and Hamas. existence of Israel and stop supporting Israel has good relations with the Hezbollah and Hamas. If this happens, the neighboring countries of Iran. Although it is two countries would contribute to a more not a NATO member state, it has has good peaceful atmosphere in the Middle East and relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan, the Gulf they could have normal relations with each countries and the Kurdish Federation in other. However, this scenario is extremely North-Iraq because it is a strong ally of the unlikely. United States. Saudi-Arabia, which is the There are several reasons why the cold number 1 enemy of Iran among Arab coun- war between Israel and Iran could turn into tries, is ready to support Israel by all means a military war: if Iran would attack it.77 Now the priority for Israel is to stop - A peaceful problem solving is not in ac- Iran from building an atomic weapon. The cordance with the foreign policy princi- Israeli authorities have firmly stated many ples of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as times that if it looks like Iran is about to get Iran can’t accept the existence of a Jew- a nuclear weapon, the Israeli forces would ish state. be forced to act.78 The Iranian authorities - Iran does not have the intention of giv- on the other hand have threatened to wipe ing up its nuclear program, and Israel on the other hand does not want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. 76 Dassa Kaye Dalia, Nader Alireza, Roshan Parisa, - Israel does not want to see Iran to be- “Israel and Iran, A Dangerous Rivalry”, RAND (National Defense Research Institute), 2011, p. 61– come a Great Power in the region of the 62. Santa Monica, [http://www.rand.org/ Middle-East. content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2011/RAN - Iran is not likely to stop supporting Is- D_MG1143.pdf]. lamic groups. 77 Jewish Press Staff, “ Might Support Israeli Strike on Iran”, 26 February 2012, [http://www.Je- wish-press.com/news/breaking-news/saudis-might- 79 Ahren Raphael, “Iran would barely retaliate if its support-israeli-strike-on-iran/2012/02/26/]. nuclear program were attacked”, Times of Israel 21 78 Al-Jazeera, “Israeli PM threatens to strike Iran”, August 2013, [http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran- 17 July 2013, [http://www.aljazeera.com/news/ would-barely-retaliate-if-its-nuclear-program-were- middleeast/2013/07/2013714214528446397.html]. attacked/].

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- The allies of Iran are getting weaker, claims however that the army’s role is solely while Israel’s allies are becoming consultative and non-military. stronger. If the international community decides to attack Syria, Iran has proclaimed to in- For these reasons, it is possible for the two terpret the attack as one against itself. This countries to get caught in an armed conflict has been clearly stated i.a. by Ali Akbar Ve- at some point. Compromises between Iran layati, the highest counselor regarding Iran’s and Israel in this context look extremely foreign affairs,81 and Saqfi Amiri82, a re- unlikely. searcher at Iran’s strategy department. As for the commander of the Army of the 7.2 Iran and Syria Guardians of the Islamic Revolution Mohammad Ali Jafari, he declared that if As the leader of the international Shiite such an attack should occur, Iran will de- community, Iran never fails to support the fend Syria with all its might.83 Shiite Muslims in Middle-Eastern conflicts, For a long time now, Syria has been a regardless of whether they are part of the strategic ally to Iran. The countries’ ties be- government or the opposition. The country gan to tighten already in 1979, after the Ira- supports Shiites in Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi- nian revolution. In the Iran-Iraq war, Syria Arabia, Sudan and Syria, and is opposed to was the only Arab country to support Iran. Sunni Muslims’ uprisings in Iran, Iraq and In the recent times, the economical bond Syria. A good example of this is the coun- has also tightened between the two coun- try’s different positioning towards uprisings tries. As is well known, numerous interna- in Bahrain and in Syria. In Bahrain, Iran tional sanctions fall upon Iran. As a result, supports the Shiites who are against the Iran is trying to figure out new ways to pur- Monarch, who himself is a Sunni. In Syria sue international trade despite the sanctions. on the other hand, Iran supports the cur- Now, Iran is using Syria as a channel to en- rent ruler, the Alawite Bashar al-Assad ter the international markets. In February against the opposition, because the opposi- 2013, Iran, Iraq and Syria signed a contract tion mainly consists of Sunnis. This is a according to which a gas pipe would be clear indication that Iran shows its support ready in 2015, through which the natural only to Shiite Muslims. gas of Iran can be transported through Iraq Ever since the uprising started in Syria, until Syria, where it then can be sold to Iran has been the strongest supporter of European markets.84 Bashar al-Assad, claiming that in reality, the majority of Syrians support al-Assad’s re- 81 Press TV, ”Attack on Syria, strike against Iran, gime. The commander of the Army of the allies: Velayati”, 07 August 2013, [http://www. Guardians of the Islamic Revolution presstv.ir/detail/2013/01/26/285606/attacking- Mohammad Ali Jafari has announced that syria-is-attacking-iran-velayati/]. 82 Saqfi Ameri Naser, ”Iran and Syrian relations,” Iran supports al-Assad financially, politically Center for Strategic Center, 13 February 2013, 80 and diplomatically. Jafari also stated that [http://www.csr.ir/departments.aspx?lng=fa&abtid Iran’s special Quds army has long been pre- =07&&depid=44&semid=2462]. sent in Syria because of the conflict. He 83 Fars News Agency, ”IRGC Blasts Fabrication of Commander's Remarks on Syria,” 19 September 2012, [http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php? nn=9106241164]. 80 Black Ian, “Iran confirms it has forces in Syria 84 The Free Syrian Army, which belongs to the and will take military action if pushed”, The Opposition, kidnapped 48 Iranian citizens in August Guardian, 16 September 2012, [http://www.theguar- 2012. The chairman of the opposition claimed that dian.com/world/2012/sep/16/iran-middleeast]. amongst the hostages, there were soldiers of the

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On the other hand, Iran’s relations 7.3 Iran and the Gulf Countries with the Syrian opposition are reciprocally tense. According to the Syrian opposition, Apart from Syria, Iran has extremely bad re- Iran is involved in training the Syrian army lations with Arab countries. The Arab and of al-Assad, and providing them with weap- Sunni Muslim countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, ons.85 , Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Iran sees Syria as its strategic extension. Arab Emirates form together the Coopera- That is one of the reasons why the country tion Council for the Arab States of the Gulf is so interested in the current events of Syria (CCASG), and are close allies of the United and the outcome of the uprising. Since Iran, States and the West. Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Ji- Since the Islamic Republic of Iran was had are allies, the leaders of Iran feel that established in 1979, the relations between the strategic reach up until Iran and the CCASG have drastically wors- the Mediterranean coast. Even Barack ened. Nowadays, they are conflicted due to Obama’s security adviser Thomas Donilon the following reasons: has stated that Syria is a strategic bridge for Iran. If Iran loses Syria, the influence and - The Shiite vs. Sunni conflict, authority the country has in the region will - The Iranian nuclear program that causes crumble. Donilon added that if the current fear in the CCASG countries, regime in Syria is overthrown, Iran will no - The collaboration of the CCASG coun- longer be able to threaten Israel, its archen- tries with the West and especially the emy.86 United States, the worst enemy of Iran, All in all Iran has a major role in the - The ownership of oilfields located in the Syrian conflict. Without Iran’s support, al- Persian Gulf, Assad couldn’t have had enough power to - Territorial disputes over some islands continue his battle against the opposition, between UAE and Iran, and the conflict would most likely already - CCASG countries’ involvement in Iran’s have ended to the victory of the opposition. domestic policy, and Iran’s involvement To truly solve the problems Syria, it is nec- in CCASG countries’ domestic policy. essary to first solve the problems in Iran, otherwise Iran will keep on fuelling the con- As the leader of the Shiite world, Iran is try- flict. ing to spread the Shiite religion and is sup- porting the Shiite minorities in the CCASG Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, countries. This works both ways: Saudi supporting al-Assad against the people. Iran assured Arabia, the leader of the CCASG countries, that the persons were just normal pilgrims. In the is supporting Iranian Sunnis, especially Ba- end, the Iranian hostages were released as part of an exchange of prisoners, during which the Syrian lochis and Arabs in Iran. The fact that both government released 2.130 prisoners in total. Al groups are intervening in each other’s do- Arabia News, “Iraq green lights gas pipeline deal mestic affairs has caused tension, disputes with Iran, Syria”, 20 February 2013, [http://www. and threatening on both sides. The situation alara-biya.net/articles/2013/02/20/267257.html]. is especially tense between Iran and Saudi 85 CBCNEWS,” Syrian opposition forces free 48 Arabia, who are fighting on who is the Iranians in prisoner swap,” 9 January 2013, [http:// www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/01/09/syria- leader of the Muslim world. Below, some of iran-prisoner-swap.html]. these factors that are worsening the rela- 86 Saqfi Ameri Naser, ”Iran and Syrian relations,” tions of Iran and the CCASG countries are Center for Strategic Center, 13 February 2013, further clarified. [http://www.csr.ir/departments.aspx?lng=fa&abtid =07&&depid=44&semid=2462].

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7.3.1 The Conflict between Sunnis and Shiites In Sunni countries such as or the CCASG countries, Shiites are not toler- Under Prophet Mohammed’s successor ated. Especially the Salafist movement in Ali’s regime around 650 AC, raged a civil the CCASG countries sees Shiites as infi- war in the Arabic Peninsula that eventually dels. In 1987, during the pilgrimage to led to the murder of Ali. The deep conflict Saudi-Arabia, Iranian pilgrims gathered up between the Shiites and Sunnis started pre- for a peaceful demonstration, when Saudi cisely from this murder almost 1,400 years policeman attacked the crowd opening fire ago. and killing hundreds.90 Even though it hap- The history of Islam is full of wars that pened more than twenty-six years ago, it is a have been fought between the two schools. good example of the hostility that is today The bloodiest period was between the still underlying between the two schools. In 1600s and 1900s, when the Ottoman Em- fact, the whole Middle East is divided into pire and the Shiite Safavidi Dynasty cross two camps. swords. These battles deepened the differ- In the Iraq-Iran war (1980–1988) and ences between the two schools even the current Syrian conflict, this division has more.87 There is no end in sight for the bat- been clearer than ever. During the Iran-Iraq tles between Shiites and Sunnis, because war, Sunni countries Saudi-Arabia and Ku- both camps believe they are right. wait supported Saddam Hussein against In Iran, where Shiites are ruling, the Iran, and Shiite countries and groups sup- minority Sunnis can’t express their religion ported Iran. The Iraq War of 2003 was ex- freely. Shiite is the only official religion in a ceptional, because Shiites and Sunnis col- country where 89% of the population, are laborated and formed one front against Shiites.88 Thousands of Sunni activists are Saddam Hussein. in prison, and the whole system is discrimi- In the current conflict of Syria, Sunni native against them. This is actually a quite majority countries like CCASG countries, frequent tendency in the Middle East, Egypt, Turkey and Lebanon, as well as where Sunnis have poor conditions in Shiite smaller Sunni groups from other countries, countries and vice versa. For instance in are supporting the opposition in its efforts Teheran - a city of 13 million inhabitants to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Re- with thousands of Shiite mosques - Sunnis spectively, Shiite leader Iran and its allies do not have but one mosque for them- such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Jihadist selves.89 In Pakistan and Iraq, dozens of groups from Palestine, Iraqi Shiites, Turkish people die every day in confrontations be- Alawites and Shiites from Oman and Bah- tween the two schools. rain are supporting al-Assad’s regime. Most of the Western countries support the Sunni camp and consider them as their allies. China and Russia on the other hand sup- 87 For more information see the book: F. Dale port the Shiite camp, led by Iran. Stephen, “The Muslim Empires of the Ottomans, Safavids, and Mughals (New Approaches to Asian History)”. 88 World Factbook, 19 March 2013, [https://www. cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ geos/ir.html]. 90 Kifner John, ”400 die as Iranian marchers Saudi 89 Kamali Dehghan Saeed, “Sunni Muslims banned police in Mecca; embassies smashed in Teheran”, from holding own Eid prayers in Tehran”, The The New York Times, 2 August 1987, [http://www. Guardian, 31 August 2011, [http://www.guardian. ny-times.com/1987/08/02/world/400-die-iranian- co.uk/world/2011/aug/31/iran-forbids-sunni- marchers-battle-saudi-police-meccaembassies- eidprayers]. smashed-teheran.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm].

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7.3.2 Iran’s Nuclear Program tion.93 All the CCASG countries have ac- tively supported the sanctions inflicted The efforts of Iran to acquire the technol- upon Iran that aim to stop them to further ogy necessary for the development of nu- develop the technology necessary for build- clear weapons has caused great fear in ing a nuclear bomb. CCASG countries. The concern of the CCASG countries is awoken especially for 7.3.3 Quarrels Over Territories two reasons. First of all, CCASG countries and especially Saudi Arabia do not want to Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb see their biggest enemy, Iran, to acquire the have been a territorial dispute between Iran high technology that is necessary to build a and the United Arab Emirates for a long nuclear bomb. If this would happen, the in- time now. Abu Musa and the Greater fluence Iran has in the region would highly Tunbs and Lesser Tunbs are small islands increase, and CCASG countries are pre- located in the Persian Gulf. Notwithstand- pared to do everything it takes to prevent ing of their small size, they are located stra- this. According to the report of the Atomic tegically in the middle of the Persian Gulf, Kingdom91, if Iran builds a nuclear weapon, and they have huge strategic importance to it will put pressure on Saudi-Arabia to build what shipping and oil tanker traffic are con- one too.92 cerned.94 Second of all, the Iranian nuclear At the present, Iran has control of the power plant of is located in the islands. The Federation of American Scien- southwest of the country, near the border tists claims that Iran has built up a military with the CCASG countries. Bushehr is lo- presence on the islands that includes anti- cated in a zone that is geographically liable aircraft and anti-ship missiles.95 The UAE to earthquakes, and the big concern is that are unhappy with the situation, claiming something similar to Japan’s Fukushima that Iran has been occupying the islands disaster will take place in Bushehr. If this that actually belong to the Emirates. This happened, most of the victims will likely be has caused tension between the two coun- inhabitants of the CCASG countries. This tries; since Iran firmly states the islands be- concern is not unfounded; the earthquake long to its territory. of caused widespread devasta- 7.3.4 The Cooperation between the CCASG Countries and the West 91 “Atomic Kingdom” is a part of a broader project at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) analyzing the consequences of Iranian The alliance between the CCASG countries nuclearization. The project examines how the and the United States has irritated Iran and United States and its allies should better prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and, should these efforts fail, mitigate the consequences of a 93 Tafline Lailin, ”Gulf Countries Fear Leaks from nuclear-armed Iran. CNAS gratefully acknowledges Iranian Nuclear Plant”, Greenprophet 22 July 2013, the Ploughshares Fund, United States Institute of [http://www.greenprophet.com/2013/07/gulf- Peace and the Carnegie Corporation of New York countries-fear-leaks-from-iranian-nuclear-plant/]. for their generous financial support. 94 Hilleary Cecily, ”Iran-UAE Island Dispute Could 92 For more information see the following report: Escalate”, Voice of America 18 October 2012, H. Kahl Colin, G. Dalton Melissa and Irvine [http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-uae- Matthew, “If Iran Builds the Bomb, Will Saudi island-dispute-could-escalate/1528869.html]. Arabia Be Next? Atomic Kingdom”, Atomic 95 EIA (US Energy Information Administration), Kingdom, February 2013, [http://www.cnas.org/ ”World Oil Transit Chokepoints”, 22 August 2012, files/documents/publications/CNAS_AtomicKing [http://www.eia.gov/countries/analysisbriefs/Worl dom_Kahl.pdf]. d_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/wotc.pdf].

27 worsened the relationship between Iran and common economic interests, political Islam, the CCASG countries.96 USA is a major ally and collaboration against the birth of a of the CCASG countries, and one of its key Kurdish federation. tasks is to protect them from any external However, the relations all but roseate, attacks, notably from Iran. In exchange, with the bringing additional USA gets to buy cheap oil, sell military chill. The relations between Iran and Turkey equipment to the countries and supervise have been negatively influenced by many the safety of oil traffic on the Persian Gulf. factors: USA has dozens of military bases in the CCASG countries.97 In that way USA can - The conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, be thought to be one of Iran’s “neighbor - Turkey’s NATO membership and its re- countries”, who has supervising the domes- lations to Israel, tic and foreign affairs within the CCASG - Iran’s nuclear program, region, including Iran’s relationship with its - The Kurdish question in Turkey and neighbors. This fact irritates Iran very Iran’s Turkish minority (Azeris), much, but on the other hand it has brought - Syria’s civil war. some kind of stability to the region, since now Iran cannot freely interfere with the In the following, some key factors in the inner affairs of the CCASG countries. Iran-Turkey relations are further explained. As an ally of the USA, Saudi Arabia, the leader of the CCASG countries, is also 7.4.1 Background indirectly an ally of Israel. It would be ready to support any military action that would Iran and Turkey are both influential coun- take place against Iran. In addition, Saudi tries in the Middle East. They share a bor- Arabia has been supporting the Syrian op- der of almost 500 km. To this day, the position. It wants to weaken the Shiite axis bloody battles that were fought between the of the Middle East, and to see a Sunni Ottoman Empire’s led by Turkey and the leader step into power in Syria. Shiite Safavidi Dynasty led by Iran between the 1600s and 1900s still have a negative 7.4 Iran and Turkey impact to the countries’ relations. But there is more than that. 20% of the If Iran’s relations with the CCASG coun- Turkish population is Alawites. These peo- tries are bad, its relations with Turkey are ple have tense relations with the Sunni rul- somewhat better. Several factors are bring- ers of Turkey, but good relations with Iran. ing the two nations closer to each other: Nationalist and secular governments ruled Turkey until the Justice and Development party (AKP) stepped into power in 2001. 96 Waezi Mahmoud, Relations between Iran and The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Until that, Iran had been supporting Gulf (CCASG), Center for Strategic Research 2007, Islamists in Turkey against the nationalists [http://www.csr.ir/Pdf/Content2237/Pages%20fro and secular groups and parties, which was m%20No.28-shoraye%20khalije%20fars-farsi- one thing that influenced the countries’ rela- 2.pdf]. tions in a negative way.98 97 Degang Sun, ”The US Military Bases in the States: Dynamics of During the 1990s, the Turkish gov- Readjustment”, Middle East Studies Institute, ernment wanted to limit the amount of in- Shanghai International Studies University 2010, [http://research.shisu.edu.cn/picture/article/13/ad 98 Makovsky Alan, “How to Deal with Erbakan”, /24/7fc5a2764fe39852c873b566005f/ba1a738c- Middle East Forum, March 1997, [http://www.me- 5ac3-4e40-aa80-52603f103057.pdf]. forum.org/335/how-to-deal-with-erbakan].

28 teraction between its citizens and Iranians, needs allies; otherwise Turkey would win out of fear that Kurdish separatism ideology the power battle. Thus, Iran has tightened would spread in the country. Iran, much for its relations to China and Russia. the same reasons, also tried to limit the in- Turkey is worried about Iran’s nuclear teractions. program and especially about the fact that However, since the AKP party took Iran might build a nuclear weapon. If this power in 2001, the relations between Tur- happened, Turkey would interpret it as an key and Iran have been ameliorating. They immense threat. kept on getting better until the civil war in During the Syrian conflict, NATO Syria started in 2011. During the past five moved a missile defense system to Turkey years, Iran and Turkey have actively pro- for protection in case Syria or some other moted bilateral investment and trade in country would attack Turkey.101 Iran per- their shared border regions. This proves ceives the missile defense system as a threat that the governments are taking steps to and has expressed its concerns over it to the build better relations between them. Now, Turkish authorities.102 since the civil war started in Syria, the rela- tions are no longer warm, but the countries 7.4.3 Minority issues keep on maintaining good trade relations for the benefice of both countries.99 From the 80 million people living in Tur- key, 20% are ethnic Kurds. Respectively, 7.4.2 Turkey’s NATO Membership from the 80 million Iranians, 20% are eth- nically Azeris and Turkmens, which mean Since 1952, Turkey has been a NATO that they have Turkish roots.103 member and an ally of the US. In a recent Whether it is in Turkey or Iran, both statement, the country’s authorities claimed minorities’ civil rights are disrespected. Nei- that100 ther can study in their native language nor express their culture freely. Iran aims to Ever since our NATO membership […], the “Persianize” all of its minorities, and Turkey North Atlantic Alliance has played a central respectively wants to “Turkisize” its Kurd- role in Turkey’s security and contributed to its ish population. integration with the Euro-Atlantic commu- For dozens of years, Kurds have been nity. Turkey, in return, has successfully as- fighting the Turkish government alongside sumed its responsibilities in defending the the Kurdistan’s Workers Party PKK. In common values of the Alliance. 2013, the Turkish government accepted to pursue peace negotiations with the Kurds. Turkey holds its NATO membership and Both wish to find a way to stop the bloody companionship with the West very high, as this statement demonstrates. 101 In Iran’s point of view, Turkey’s NATO, ”German, Dutch, Turkish and American officials from NATO in Brussels visit Patriot NATO membership and close connections deployments”, January 2013, [http://www.nato.int/ with Israel are irritating. Iran also wants and cps/ en/natolive/news_98936.htm]. 102 Haaretz, ”Iran warns Turkey against deploying NATO missile defense system”, 8 September 2011, 99 Fars-News, “Iran Warns Turkey to Stay Away [http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/iran- from War on Syria”, 27 August 2013, [Iran Warns warns-turkey-against-deploying-nato-missile-defen- Turkey to Stay Away from War on Syria]. se-system-1.383241]. 100 Republic of Turkey, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 103 Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook, 9 “Turkey’s Relations with NATO”, 9 August 2013, August 2013, [https://www.cia.gov/library/publi- [http://www.mfa.gov.tr/nato.en.mfa]. cations/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html].

29 battle that has cost more than 40.000 lives As seen in the previous chapter, Syria’s during dozens of years. In September 2013, civil war has caused the relations between the negotiations are still taking place and no Iran and Turkey to deteriorate. Turkey has permanent agreement has been reached.104 been showing massive support to the oppo- The Kurdish question has been a sition forces. For instance, the headquarters source for ongoing confrontation between of the opposition lay in Turkey’s side of the Turkey and Iran. Turkey blames Iran for border. International jihadist groups coming supporting the Turkish Kurds’ separatism from several different countries first gather ideology. In Turkey’s opinion, Iran tries to in Turkey before entering Syria and the war Turkey’s unity. Ironically, Iran says scene to fight in the rows of the opposi- the exact same thing about Turkey. It is a tion.107 On the other hand, Iran is the big- fact that some headquarters of the PKK, gest supporter of Bashar al-Assad’s regime who fights for the rights of the Kurds in – and intends to stay that way. In a recent both countries, lie on Iran’s side of the bor- interview, Iran’s newly elected President der. Turkey sees this as a reason to support Hassan Rouhani stated that “no force in the the Turkish minorities of Iran, providing world would shake the alliance between the two their political parties the possibility to as- countries”.108 sembly in Turkey and putting pressure on Iran to give the Turkish minorities their full 7.4.5 Economic Relations civil rights.105 Despite their different point of views, Iran and Turkey collaborate in Despite all the discords listed in this chap- their anti-Kurdish efforts. However, this is a ter, Iran and Turkey maintain good eco- fact that causes friction in their relations. nomic relations. Turkey is one of the big- gest buyers of Iranian oil and gas. For Iran, 7.4.4 Iran and Turkey’s Relations and the Syrian these purchases are more and more valu- Civil War able, since the economic situation of the country keeps on getting worse due to in- Iran has had a major role in the Syrian civil ternational sanctions. Iran is not only in a war. Without the support of Iran, the oppo- sellers role; each year, more and more Irani- sition forces would probably long ago have ans choose to spend their holidays in Tur- overthrown al-Assad’s regime. But since key, bringing money to the country’s tour- Iran – alongside many others – keeps fuel- ism industry. ling the crisis, it has protracted considerably. The U.S., who has been one of the Here we contemplate the relations between most eager countries to inflict sanctions Iran and its neighbor Syria.106 upon Iran, is not pleased about the trade that is taking place between the two nations. It has threatened its good partner Turkey 104 Letsch Constanze, “Kurds dare to hope as PKK with limited access to the U.S. market if fighters' ceasefire with Turkey takes hold”, Guardian 7 May 2013, [http://www.theguardian. com/world/ 2013/ may/07/kurds-pkk-turkey-peace-talks]. 105 Today’s Zaman, “Iranian Azeris set up national 107 Alkac Firat, ”Al-Qaeda Militants Travel To Syria council in Turkey, aspire for independence”, 14 May Via Turkey”, Almonitor 23 July 2013, [http://www. 2012, [http://www.todayszaman.com/news-280353 al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2013/07/al-qaeda- -iranian-azeris-set-up-national-council-in-turkey-as- militants-syria-turkey-border.html]. pire-for-independence.html]. 108 Fox news, " Iran's new president vows support 106 George Marcus, “Iran's Khamenei warns of U.S. for Assad regime”, 5 August 2013, loss over intervention in Syria”, Reuters 5 September [http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/04/ira 2013, [http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/ n-new-president-says-no-force-in-world-will-shake- 05/us-syria-crisis-iran-idUSBRE9840CQ20130905]. tehran-alliance-with-syria/].

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Turkey do not stop trading with Iran. So fact part of the Pan-Turkism movement, far, the threats have led to no action. which Iran finds worrying. 110 Turkey, Iran and Pakistan form a trade After the Soviet Union collapsed in union called Economic Cooperation Or- 1991, Iran strove to support the Caucasian ganization (ECO)109 that has been trying to countries, especially Azerbaijan.111 But in- facilitate trade between them for decades stead of reaching towards Russia and Iran now. for support, Azerbaijan established relations All the factors presented in this chapter with the West, Turkey and Israel. Now, the influence the relations between Iran and two biggest trading partners for Azerbaijan Turkey. Right now there are less binding are Turkey and Israel. As for Iran, it views factors than there are divisional ones. Iran the relationship between Azerbaijan and Is- has a difficult time accepting that it is rael as a threat. neighbors with a NATO membership coun- Israel has been among Azerbaijan's top try that is an ally with all its enemies. On the five trade partners in recent years. Baku is other hand, Turkey will not accept Iran to Israel's top oil supplier, providing around 40 become a nuclear power. These factors will percent of its annual consumption, while Is- keep on chilling their relations, until power rael is the sixth highest importer of Azerbai- and the whole political system has been jani oil exports.112 Israel purchases oil and changed in Iran. gas from Azerbaijan, and sells military equipment such as arms to the country. Is- 7.5 Iran and Azerbaijan rael has also trained the army of Azerbaijan. In the conflict between Armenia and Azer- Iran and Azerbaijan are culturally close but baijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh land, Is- ideologically very far apart. Azerbaijan tries rael is supporting Azerbaijan.113 to maintain good relations to the West and As the high-ranking official in Azerbai- wants to act itself as one of the Western jan’s President’s Ilham Aliyev’s administra- counties. This irritates the Iranian regime, tion put it, “Iran wants Azerbaijan to be- since it would like all countries to be Is- come friends with its friends, and enemies lamic. The fact that Azerbaijan once be- with its enemies”. He also stated that Azer- longed to Iran only makes the ideological baijan will keep on forming its relation in differences more irritating for Iran. the framework of the country’s own inter- The majority of the Azerbaijanis peo- ests, not at all in regards to what Iran has in ple are Muslims and belong to the Shiite branch. The government, however, is secu- 110 Panorama, “Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan: lar. Ideologically, the Azerbaijanis identify Turkey spreading pan-Turkism”, 11 February 2013, with Turkey. This identification is stronger [http://www.panorama.am/en/politics/2013/02/1 for the Azerbaijanis than the identification 1/ambassador-iran-azerbaijan/]. with the Islamic community. They are in 111 Kotecha Hema, “Islamic and Ethnic Identities in Azerbaijan: Emerging trends and tensions, Development Researcher – Anthropologist 2006, 109 Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), is [http://www.osce.org/baku/23809]. an intergovernmental regional organization 112 Shaffer Brenda, “Azerbaijan's Cooperation with established in 1985 by Iran, Pakistan and Turkey for Israel Goes Beyond Iran Tensions”, Washington the purpose of promoting economic, technical and Institute 16 April 2013, [http://www.washing- cultural cooperation among the Member States. tonins-titute.org/policy-analysis/view/azerbaijans- ECO is the successor organization of Regional coope-ration-with-israel-goes-beyond-iran-tensions]. Cooperation for Development (RCD) which 113 Ter-Sahakyan Karine, “Armenia has no place in remained in existence since 1964 up to 1979. triumvirate Israel-Turkey-Azerbaijan”, 15 April [http://www.ecosecretariat.org/]. 2011, [http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/details/ 67325/].

31 mind.114 According to Grove Thomas’ re- The relations between Iran and Azer- port for Reuters, if Israel was to attack Iran, baijan are heading to a worsening direction. Azerbaijan would allow Israel to use its air- Both countries keep on interfering in each space, air bases and spy drones to help Is- other’s business, and the warming relations rael fight Iran.115 between Israel and Azerbaijan, especially The interfering of both countries to regarding military affairs, gravely irritates each other’s internal affairs has definitely Iran. On the other hand, the influence of worsened their relations. Iran supports the Iran, Armenia and Russia in the former So- Shiite groups of Azerbaijan who are fighting viet Union countries, especially in Caucasus, against the government. Reciprocally, the is increasing. Azerbaijani government supports Iran’s Az- eris who are also fighting for their rights in 7.6 Iran and Iraq Iran. In 2012, the Azerbaijan parliament discussed the possibility of changing the The Iran-Iraq border is almost 1.500 km name of the country from Republic of long from the Shatt al-Arab (known as Ar- Azerbaijan to Northern Azerbaijan.116 In vand Rud in Iran) waterway to the Turkish the same time, they started to urge the Ira- border. Culturally, the two countries are not nian Azeris to strive to gain independence, far apart from each other. For instance, the with the idea that this area would be called best-known cultural heritage sites of Shiite Southern Azerbaijan once detached from Muslims are scattered on both sides of the Iran. In response, the Iranian member of border. At the present moment, both coun- parliament Kamal Aladeen Firmouza under- tries are ruled by Shiites. This has led to lined the need for a referendum, where Ira- warmer relations than ever before, and now nians could vote for the returning the coun- these two oil-rich countries are close trade try of Azerbaijan to Iran. He claimed that partners. “there is a real desire and interest among In the following, we contemplate the Azerbaijani citizens to rejoin Iran”.117 Azer- relation between Iran and Iraq. baijan was part of Iran until it was annexed to Russia in the Russo-Persian War of 1826- 1828.118 7.6.1 Relations Under Saddam Hussein’s Regime

114 Resneck Jacob and Guluyev Zaka, “Azerbaijan’s Until 2003 and the collapse of Saddam Hus- tense ties with neighbor Iran cause concern”, The sein’s regime, the relations between Iran Washington Times 25 May 2012, [http://www.wash- ingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/25/azerbaijans- and Iraq were bad. The Iran-Iraq War tense-ties-neighbor-iran-cause-concern/?page=all]. (1980–1988), which lasted for almost eight 115 Grove Thomas,”Azerbaijan eyes aiding Israel years, was one of the bloodiest conflicts of against Iran”, Reuters 30 September 2012, [http:// the century with more than a million killed www.reu-ters.com/article/2012/09/30/us-iran- and a million wounded on both sides. israel-azerbai-jan-idUSBRE88T05L20120930]. Chemical weapons were used against civil- 116 Giorgi Lomsadze, ” Will Azerbaijan Change Its Name?”, 2 February 2012, [http://www.eurasianet. ians and the army. org/node/64942]. Although there were many reasons why 117 Irandailybrief, “Majlis member calls for referen- the war started119, the most important mo- dum on return of Azerbaijan to”, 8 April 2013, [http://www.irandailybrief.com/2013/04/08/majlis -member-calls-for-referendum-on-return-of-azer- 119 Another reason for the eruption of the Iran-Iraq baijan-to-iran/]. war was the conflict between Shiites and Sunnis. 118 Islamic Revulution Document Center The Treaty Khomeini stated that every country should follow of Turkmenchay, 2013, [http://www.irdc.ir/en/ Iran’s example of the Islamic revolution. His default.aspx]. statements such as “we shall confront the world

32 tives are considered to be a border conflict In the Iraq war, Iran showed some and a conflict between two different ideolo- support to its enemy the U.S. for several gies.120 Even though the war ended in 1988, reasons: the conflict between the two countries did not cease then. Both kept on interfering in - They had a common enemy. As is said each other’s internal affairs, and kept on ”My enemy’s enemy is my friend”. Sad- supporting the opposition in the rival coun- dam Hussein was an enemy to both U.S. try until 2003, when the U.S. troops and and Iran, and both countries contrib- their allies attacked Iraq and overthrew uted to his overthrowing. Iran wasn’t Saddam Hussein’s regime.121 able to overthrow him, despite having tried to do it for eight years under the Iran-Iraq war. But now U.S. did what both countries had been trying to do, with our ideology and “we shall spread Islam and put an end to Hussein’s regime. everywhere in the world” evoked fear everywhere in - Iran was afraid U.S. would attack it. Iran the world, especially in the countries ruled by wants to contradict or stand in the way Sunnis. These countries were mostly allies of the West. The historical reasons stated above, the wor- of U.S. attacking Iraq also because it was rying speeches Khomeini made and the support afraid that if that was the case, U.S. Iran showed to the Iraqi Shiites (that formed 60% could attack Iran after it had finished its of the Iraqi population but had bad relations with business in Iraq. the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein) were the three - Iran did not stand in the way of the col- reasons that drove Saddam Hussein to attack Iran. The war lasted eight years, causing many thousand laboration between U.S. and the Iraqi casualties in both sides. Actually, Saddam Hussein opposition. During the Iraq war, most was ready to start peace negotiations after one year of the influential Iraqis and the coun- of warfare, but at this point Khomeini was tries opposition had their headquarters determined to keep on going until Saddam Hussein in Iran. The Iraqi opposition had a ma- would be out of the picture, and he would be free to jor role in helping the U.S. overthrow mold Iraq into a Shiite state. However, the war kept going for so long that Khomeini had no choice but Saddam Hussein. to accept the UN’s peace treaty. The war ended, and - Iran had a collaborative role in the stabi- Iraq wasn’t turned into a Shiite nation. lization process of Iraq after the war was 120 The Iran-Iraq War’s roots go back to the era of over. First, right after Saddam was over- the Persian and Ottoman Empires; when a peace thrown, Iran tried to interfere in the in- and border agreement was signed between these two empires in 1639 but the border disputes ternal affairs of Iraq and support the exploded again in 1818 and another agreement was Shiites in the country. Quickly, it signed in 1823. After Britain and Russia intervened adopted a different attitude and started in 1837, another border agreement was also signed. – out of fear – to collaborate with the In the Twentieth Century, the dispute centered U.S. in efforts to bring stability to the around the Shatt Al Arab River. The river forms the border between Iraq and Iran until it empties into country. the Arabian Gulf. The Shatt and the region around it have strategic and economic importance for both Since the Iraqi dictator was overthrown, a countries, but particularly for Iraq since it is Iraq's new phase has begun in the relations be- principle maritime window to the world. tween Iraq and Iran. Now the two consider 121 For more information about the Iraqi War see each other as allies. In this way, Iran bene- article: Wong Leonard & A. Kolditz Thomas & A. Millen Raymond & M. Potter Terrence, “Why the fited massively from the Iraq war, gaining fight: combat motivation in the Iraq War”, SSI, good relationship with a neighbor it had Strategic Studies Institute (United States Army War had bad relations in the past with. College), July 2003, [http://www.strategicstudiesins- titute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub179.pdf].

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After Turkey, Iran is the second most The chaotic situation and daily bomb important trade partner for Iraq. Iran ex- explosions in Iraq are due to the discon- ports massively to Iraq, and tries in this way tentment of the Sunnis. Under Saddam to go round the sanctions the international Hussein’s regime, the Sunnis were ruling as community has inflicted upon it. a minority the whole country, Kurds and Iran has good relations with the Iraqi Shiites included. But now, Sunnis are ruling Shiite parties. Through them, Iran has been only the Sunni territories of Iraq, which able to suffocate the Sunnis of Iraq and to make them unhappy with the current situa- control the Iraqi opposition groups, whose tion. headquarters were located in Iran. The Ira- Many125 claim that it was a mistake for nian Quds army finances and trains the Shi- the U.S. to attack Iraq.126 They say that the ite militants of Iraq.122 Through them, Iran war has been claiming far too many lives gets to have some influence and authority in and has cost a fortune, while Iraq is in a Iraq. Iran has also used the Shiite militants state of complete chaos and has not stabi- to attack the most well known opposition lized.127 However, some feel that despite group MEK’s (Mujahidin-e-Khalq) head- the current problems Iraq is facing, the U.S. quarters, killing dozens of its supporters.123 intervention of 2003 brought many positive Iran has been able to influence Iraq’s elements.128 They justify their claims with foreign and domestic policies in all possible the following129: areas. Iran had a major role in composing the Iraqi government and choosing the key - Overthrowing Saddam brought peace to authorities, such as the president and prime these ally countries, who now maintain minister. Nowadays, it is almost impossible good relations with the current Iraqi re- for Iraqi politicians to work independently gime. The Iraqi dictator was a threat to without Iran interfering. the allies of the West in the Middle East. For instance, Hussein conquered Ku- 7.6.2 The Iraqi Sunnis Are Discontented

December 2012, [http://www.alarabiya.net/artic- The Sunnis and secular people of Iraq feel les/2012/12/28/257459.html]. like Iran is conquering Iraq, pretty much 125 Thompson Loren, “Iraq: The Biggest Mistake In like the U.S. did. The Sunnis of Iraq have American Military History”, Forbes 15 December protested several times against Iran interfer- 2011, [http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthomp- ing in the country’s domestic affairs. For in- son/2011/12/15/the-biggest-mistake-in-american- military-history/]. stance, in December 2012, the city of Fal- 126 Blix Hans, “Hans Blix: Iraq War was a terrible luja, Iraqi Sunni protesters set fire to the mistake and violation of U.N. charter”, CNN 19 flag of Iran, shouting “out, out Iran! Bagh- March 2013, [http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/18/ dad stays free” and “Maliki you coward, do opinion/iraq-war-hans-blix/index.html]. not take your advice from Iran”.124 127 Nowicki Dan, ”10 years later, many see Iraq War as costly mistake”, USATODAY 17 March 2013, [http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/20 13/03/17/iraq-war-10-years-later/1993431/]. 122 Fantz Ashley, “What is the Quds Force?”, CNN 128 Hanson Victor Davis, “Why Did We Invade 11 October 2011, [http://security.blogs.cnn.com/ Iraq?”, 26 March 2013, [http://www.nationalre- 2011/10/11/what-is-the-quds-force/]. view.com/articles/343870/why-did-we-invade-iraq- 123 Reuters, ”Mortar attack on Iranian dissident camp victor-davis-hanson]. in Iraq kills three”, 15 June 2013, [http://www. 129 , [Transcript: President reuters.com/article/2013/06/15/us-iraq-mek- Bush and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani], 13 idUSBRE95E0HO20130615]. September 2005, [http://www.washingtonpost.com 124 Naama Kamal and Salman Raheem, “Thousands /wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/13/AR2005091 of Iraq’s Sunnis demonstrate against PM Maliki”, 28 300906.html].

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wait, a U.S. ally, and was a dangerous access to power.131 Barzani has good rela- threat to the Arab States of the Gulf tions with Iran as well as the Sunni coun- (CCASG). tries. However, he is been collaborating - After Saddam was overthrown, funda- with Turkey and Iran to fight against the mentalist Islamic groups lost their big- Kurdish population in those countries, gest supporter. Iraq under Saddam’s re- which has gravely irritated the Kurdish gime was the most important supporter population.132 of the al-Qaida and different terrorist groups. Now they have to deal with the 7.6.3 The U.S. Is Not Happy About the U.S. and the Iraqi army fighting against Warm Relations Between Iran and Iraq them. - Overthrowing a dictator who has been Despite the conflict on the borderline and involved in the murdering of thousands the pressure the U.S. puts, Iran and Iraq’s of Iraqis has provided the Iraqis with political and economic relations keep on the opportunity to establish democracy ameliorating. This irritates the USA that in their country. Nowadays the different now hopes that the Iraqi government will ethnic and religious groups of Iraq are cut its relations with Iran or at least dimin- ruling the country together. Even ish them, as well as the influence Iran has in though it is not working so well, this the country. However, it is very unlikely would have been completely unimagin- that U.S. could get the relations to deterio- able in Saddam’s time. Now Shiites are rate, at least as long as the Shiites are ruling ruling over Shiite territories, Sunnis over the country. Iraq is now part of the Shiite Sunni territories and Kurds over Kurd- axis, which ideological leader is Iran. Iraq ish territories. If they all found a com- supports Shiite groups in Lebanon and mon melody, Iraq could become an ex- Syria. ample to follow for the other Middle- Yet, Iraq is not a unitary country. The Eastern countries. Iraqi Kurds have their own federation, which is like a state within a state. The lead- At present, the system in Iraq is divided ers of the wealthy Kurdish federation do into three. Shiites have good relations with not comply with the legislation of Iraq’s Iran and bad relations with Sunni countries. central government. They maintain good re- Sunni Arab nationalist groups have good re- lations with the West. Through the Kurdish lations with Sunni countries and very bad Federation, the U.S. and other Western relations with Iran. The North-Iraqi Kurd- countries are able to have a non-military ish area is more democratic and secular than presence in the country, and in some way to the rest of the country. This is despite the reduce Iran’s influence over Iraq. fact that Barzani, the leader of the Kurdish Federation, is actually fighting his own clan’s case, not those of the Kurdish popu- lation.130 He wants to implement a similar political system than in the Gulf countries, where only his family members can have 131 Abdulla Mufid, ”Barzani’s latest move to dicta- torship”, Kurdistantribune 2 July 2013, [http://kur- distantribune.com/2013/barzanis-latest-move-dic- 130 Rubin Michael, “Dictatorship or Democracy in tatorship/]. Iraqi Kurdistan?”, 18 May 2010, [http://www. 132 Rubin Michael, “Is Barzani really a nationalist?”, micha-elrubin.org/7407/dictatorship-or-democ- 8 November 2012, [http://kurdistantribune.com/ racy-in-iraqi-kurdistan]. 2012/barzani-really-nationalist-redux/].

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Conclusion resources and get to direct and control their foreign policies. In this game, the Great In almost every country of the Middle-East Powers and undemocratic rulers are win- and North-Africa region, historically as well ners, while the people and democratic prin- as in the present times, there are three sys- ciples are losers. tems of government that prevail: the theo- The best way to bring peace and stability cratic, securocratic, or monarchic system (or to the Middle-East, North-Africa, or any often some kind of mixture of these). When developing country, would be through these a system is changed, the new system almost principles: invariably also belongs to one of these three categories. - To stop supporting and selling arms to For instance in Iran, the monarchic dictators and securocratic, monarchic system was changed for a theocratic and se- and/or theocratic governments, curocratic system. In Saudi-Arabia, a mix- - Instead, focusing on supporting the ture of the theocratic, monarchic and secu- forming of confederation political sys- rocratic systems prevails. In Egypt, Syria, tems133 in the region, , Azerbaijan and , the system is - Supporting the pro-democracy organiza- securocratic. As for the Persian Gulf coun- tions in the region, and trying to spread tries, Jordan and Morocco, the ruling sys- the model of Western democracy, i.e. by tem is monarchic and securocratic. In the trying to export the model of North- Middle East and North Africa region, a de- European welfare states (this would ob- mocratic system is a strange notion and al- viously be a long process stretching over most unknown system of government so many decades). far. The implementation of democratic sys- tems has until now never succeeded, not- Since the Great Powers benefit from the withstanding the fact that that has been the Middle-East region not being stable, it is no peoples’ ambition. wonder many feel no real change is possible So why does it seem impossible to see until the Great Powers also adopt a new at- a democratic state in the Middle East or titude. North Africa (Israel being an exception)? Ever since 1980, the Iranians have tried After the World War I, the Western winners many times to overthrow the current ruling of the war drew the borderlines of most of system, and protested against it, without be- the Middle-East region, dividing and mixing ing able to catalyze change. In the massive different ethnicities and religious groups to- demonstrations of 2009, hundreds were gether. They supported different ethnicities killed by the government, and many other and religious groups against each other, as a protests have been smothered as well. part of their “divide and rule” policy. In- recently claimed that the stead of supporting democracy, the Great Arab Spring begun in Iran, but it died down Powers have been supporting theocratic, because the foreign powers did not show monarchic and securocratic systems of go- vernment. The Great Powers are aware that these forms of government do not have the peo- 133 A confederation governing system is a political ple’s support – that makes the rulers de- system where its constituents decide to delegate some powers to a central governing body. Usually it pendent of them. The Great Power’s sup- is limited to certain specific policies, like foreign port for the ruler does not come for free. In affairs or military co-operation. One of the features exchange, they get cheap access to natural of a confederation is that a participating state has a right to withdraw from a confederation.

36 any support.134 Many Iranians also feel that ”Arab spring” in their country would be almost impossible without the help of for- eign powers. Building nuclear weapons, violations against human rights, supporting terrorism, the international community’s sanctions, and the bad relations Iran has with most of the foreign powers – these are five signs that indicate that the “Iranian Spring” is dawning. Can Iranians change their political regime by themselves, or will they need in- ternational help?135 According to some experts, if the power system is changed in Iran, peace is likely to prevail in the Middle-East, since there would be no one left to support Is- lamic extreme-right parties, Hezbollah, or the Syrian regime, nor to threaten Israel and the Persian Gulf countries.136

134 Obama Addresses 'Arab Spring' In Keynote Speech, Radio Farda, 2 September 2013, [http://www.radiofarda.com/content/o2_obama_s peech_on_middel_east/24180208.html]. 135 For more information, see chapter “7. Iranian foreign policy” of this document. 136 Farwick Dieter, ” Iran's Ex-President Banisadr: "People want Regime Change", 18 February 2010, [http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/Iran/diete r-farwick-1/Irans-Ex-President-Banisadr-People- want-Regime-Change].

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Latest publications in this series: (full list in http://www.doria.fi/)

Series 4: Working papers (ISSN: 1236-4983)

N:o 44, 2013 Toms Rostoks: Baltic States and NATO: Looking beyond the Article V

N:o 45, 2013 Stig Rydell & Stefan Forss: Tie kohti uutta pohjoismaista turvallisuusstrategiaa

N:o 46, 2013 Alan Salehzadeh: Syyrian sisällissota: syitä ja taustatekijöitä

N:o 47, 2013 Jasmin Repo & Kati Temonen: Islamismi Pohjois-Afrikassa arabikevään jälkeen

N:o 48, 2013 Ari Rautala: Arktinen alue Venäjän sotilaallisesta näkökulmasta

Strategian laitos Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu PL 266 00171 HELSINKI

Department of Strategic and Defence Studies National Defence University P.O. Box 266 00171 HELSINKI

Tel: + 358 299 800 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.mpkk.fi/ Alan Salehzadeh

Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policies

ISSN 1236-4983 National Defence University Department of Strategic and Defence Studies National Defence University Tel. +358 0299 800 www.mpkk.fi Department of Strategic strategianlaitos@mil.fi and Defence Studies Series 4: Working Papers, No 49 P.O.Box 266, 00171 HELSINKI Suomi Finland