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A New U.S. Strategy for the Indo-Pacific

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A New U.S. Strategy for the Indo-Pacific the national bureau of asian research nbr special report #86 | june 2020 a new u.s. strategy for the indo-pacific By Roger Cliff cover 2 NBR Board of Directors John V. Rindlaub Roy D. Kamphausen Leave of Absence (Chairman) President Senior Managing Director and NBR Mark Jones Head of Pacific Northwest Market Co-head of Macro, Corporate & East West Bank Ryo Kubota Investment Bank, Wells Fargo Securities Chairman, President, and CEO Wells Fargo & Company Thomas W. Albrecht Acucela Inc. Partner (Ret.) Sidley Austin LLP Quentin W. Kuhrau Chief Executive Officer Honorary Directors Dennis Blair Unico Properties LLC Lawrence W. Clarkson Knott Professor of the Practice Senior Vice President (Ret.) University of North Carolina Melody Meyer President The Boeing Company Maria Livanos Cattaui Melody Meyer Energy LLC Thomas E. Fisher Secretary General (Ret.) Senior Vice President (Ret.) International Chamber of Commerce Long Nguyen Chairman, President, and CEO Unocal Corporation George Davidson Pragmatics, Inc. Joachim Kempin (Vice Chairman) Kenneth B. Pyle Senior Vice President (Ret.) Vice Chairman, M&A, Asia-Pacific (Ret.) Microsoft Corporation HSBC Holdings plc Professor, University of Washington Founding President, NBR Clark S. Kinlin Norman D. Dicks Jonathan Roberts President and Chief Executive Officer Senior Policy Advisor Corning Cable Systems Van Ness Feldman LLP Founder and Partner Ignition Partners Corning Incorporated Richard J. Ellings Tom Robertson George F. Russell Jr. President Emeritus and Counselor (Chairman Emeritus) NBR Vice President and Deputy General Counsel Chairman Emeritus Kurt Glaubitz Microsoft Corporation Russell Investments Global Media Relations Manager Chevron Corporation Mitchell B. Waldman Executive Vice President, Government and Customer Relations Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. NBR Counselors Charles W. Boustany Jr. Thomas B. Fargo Jonathan W. Greenert U.S. House of Representatives (Ret.) U.S. Navy (Ret.) John M. Shalikashvili Chair in National Security Studies Norman D. Dicks Aaron L. Friedberg U.S. House of Representatives (Ret.) Princeton University Joseph Lieberman Richard J. Ellings Slade Gorton U.S. Senate (Ret.) NBR U.S. Senate (Ret.) Ashley J. Tellis Carnegie Endowment for International Peace NBR Chairman’s Council and Board of Advisors Michael Armacost Carla A. Hills Sam Nunn Stanford University Hills & Company Nuclear Threat Initiative Rodney Bindon Robert D. Hormats Joseph S. Nye Jr. Bindon and Associates Kissinger Associates, Inc. Harvard University Nicholas Eberstadt David Lampton Stanley Palmer American Enterprise Institute Stanford University Marvin & Palmer Associates, Inc. Karl Eikenberry Nicholas Lardy Dwight Perkins Stanford University Peterson Institute for International Harvard University Economics Donald Emmerson Thomas Pickering Stanford University Richard Lawless The Boeing Company (Ret.) New Magellan Ventures Lee Hamilton William Rademaker Indiana University Chae-Jin Lee Flybuy Technologies Claremont McKenna College Stephen Hanson Clarine Nardi Riddle College of William and Mary Kenneth Lieberthal Kasowitz, Benson, Torres Brookings Institution & Friedman LLP Harry Harding University of Virginia William J. Lynn, III Stanley Roth DRS Technologies, Inc. The Boeing Company Donald Hellmann University of Washington Rajan Menon Sheldon Simon City College of New York Arizona State University Robert J. Herbold The Herbold Group, LLC Mary Minnick Lion Capital the national bureau of asian research nbr special report #86 | june 2020 a new u.s. strategy for the indo-pacific Roger Cliff ROGER CLIFF conducts research on international relations in the Indo-Pacific. He has worked for the Center for Naval Analyses, Atlantic Council, Project 2049 Institute, RAND Corporation, and Office of the Secretary of Defense. He holds a PhD in international relations from Princeton University, an MA in Chinese studies from the University of California San Diego, and a BS in physics from Harvey Mudd College. He can be reached at <[email protected]>. the national bureau of asian research The NBR Special Report provides access to current research on special topics conducted by the world’s leading experts in Asian affairs. The views expressed in these reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of other NBR research associates or institutions that support NBR. The National Bureau of Asian Research is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution dedicated to informing and strengthening policy. NBR conducts advanced independent research on strategic, political, economic, globalization, health, and energy issues affecting U.S. relations with Asia. Drawing upon an extensive network of the world’s leading specialists and leveraging the latest technology, NBR bridges the academic, business, and policy arenas. The institution disseminates its research through briefings, publications, conferences, Congressional testimony, and email forums, and by collaborating with leading institutions worldwide. NBR also provides exceptional internship opportunities to graduate and undergraduate students for the purpose of attracting and training the next generation of Asia specialists. NBR was started in 1989 with a major grant from the Henry M. Jackson Foundation. Funding for NBR’s research and publications comes from foundations, corporations, individuals, the U.S. government, and from NBR itself. NBR does not conduct proprietary or classified research. The organization undertakes contract work for government and private-sector organizations only when NBR can maintain the right to publish findings from such work. To download issues of the NBR Special Report, please visit the NBR website http://www.nbr.org. This report may be reproduced for personal use. Otherwise, the NBR Special Report may not be reproduced in full without the written permission of NBR. When information from NBR publications is cited or quoted, please cite the author and The National Bureau of Asian Research. This is the eighty-sixth NBR Special Report. NBR is a tax-exempt, nonprofit corporation under I.R.C. Sec. 501(c)(3), qualified to receive tax-exempt contributions. © 2020 by The National Bureau of Asian Research. Front cover image: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jon Husman. The U.S. Navy hospital ship USNS Mercy, left, and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Osumi-class amphibious assault ship JDS Kunisaki, right, participate in the Pacific Partnership exercise. For further information about NBR, contact: The National Bureau of Asian Research 1414 NE 42nd Street, Suite 300 Seattle, Washington 98105 206-632-7370 Phone 206-632-7487 Fax [email protected] E-mail http://www.nbr.org nbr special report #86 | june 2020 a new u.s. strategy for the indo-pacific TABLE OF CONTENTS v Preface viii Executive Summary 1 Chapter 1: Introduction 11 Chapter 2: Long-Term Regional Trends 31 Chapter 3: The Strategies of Key Regional Actors 67 Chapter 4: Potential Major Events 97 Chapter 5: Resources Available to the United States for an Indo-Pacific Strategy 109 Chapter 6: A New U.S. Strategy for the Indo-Pacific PREFACE he international order in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly under pressure. For more than a quarter century since the end of the Cold War, the United States’ military dominance, combined with its commitment to freedom and economic openness, allowed the region to enjoy an unprecedented period of peace and economic growth. However, the rise in theT military and economic power of China and the acquisition of nuclear weapons and delivery systems by North Korea, neither of whose leaders believe in freedom and economic openness, as well as other developments, now threaten this peace and economic growth. Successive U.S. administrations have recognized the increasing vulnerability of the regional order but have struggled to define a comprehensive and coherent strategy for the region. This report proposes one such strategy. The report assesses U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific, analyzes the strategic environment, and inventories the strategic resources available to the United States. As much as possible, it is based on empirical data, the assessments of experts on the region, and the findings of rigorous social science research. Some will no doubt disagree with its findings and recommendations. If the report at least provokes serious thinking and discussion by policymakers and opinion leaders, however, then it will have served its purpose. It should also be acknowledged that the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, which began as the research for this project was reaching its end, has the potential to fundamentally alter some of the assumptions and estimates in this report. If so, some elements of the strategy might need to be adjusted or rethought. Regardless of the specific long-term implications of the pandemic, however, it seems clear that the Indo-Pacific will not become less important to the United States. Indeed, as of May 2020, the primary effect of the pandemic appears to have been to accelerate the trends and challenges identified in the report. Strategies must always adjust and adapt to changing circumstances, but the main findings of this report appear likely to remain valid for some time. The idea for this project came from Allan Song of the Smith Richardson Foundation. Originally I approached him with a proposal to design a defense strategy for the Indo-Pacific. He encouraged me to think bigger and instead design a whole-of-government, grand strategy for the region. The resulting project was significantly
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