on the horizon: Dædalus Unfolding Futures: Indigenous Ways of Knowing for the Twenty-First Century edited by Ned Blackhawk, K. Tsianina Lomawaima, Bryan McKinley Jones Brayboy, Philip J. Deloria, Loren Ghiglione, Douglas Medin, and Mark Trahant Heidi Kiiwetinepinesiik Stark, Kekek Jason Stark, Amy E. Den Ouden, Rosita Kaaháni Worl, Heather Kendall-Miller, Noelani Goodyear-Ka’ōpua, Winter 2018 Ending Civil Wars : Constraints & Possibilities : Constraints Winter 2018 Ending Civil Wars Bryan Kamaoli Kuwada, Nanibaa’ Garrison, Dædalus Arianne E. Eason, Laura M. Brady, Stephanie Fryberg, Cherly Crazy Bull, Justin Guillory, Gary Sandefur, Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Kyle Powys Whyte, Megan Bang, Ananda Marin, Winter 2018 Teresa McCarty, Sheila E. Nicholas, Kari A. B. Chew, Natalie G. Diaz, Wesley Y. Leonard, and Louellyn White Anti-Corruption: Best Practices Ending Civil Wars: edited by Robert I. Rotberg Constraints & Possibilities Science & the Legal System edited by Shari Diamond and Richard Lempert Karl Eikenberry & Stephen D. Krasner, guest editors with Francis Fukuyama Tanisha M. Fazal · Stathis N. Kalyvas Charles T. Call & Susanna P. Campbell · Lyse Doucet Thomas Risse & Eric Stollenwerk · Clare Lockhart Representing the intellectual community in its breadth Tanja A. Börzel & Sonja Grimm · Steven Heydemann and diversity, Dædalus explores the frontiers of Seyoum Mesfi n & Abdeta Dribssa Beyene knowledge and issues of public importance. Nancy E. Lindborg & J. Joseph Hewitt Richard Gowan & Stephen John Stedman Sumit Ganguly · Jean-Marie Guéhenno U.S. $15; www.amacad.org; @americanacad Dædalus Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences “Ending Civil Wars: Constraints & Possibilities” Volume 147, Number 1; Winter 2018 Karl Eikenberry & Stephen D. Krasner, Guest Editors Phyllis S. Bendell, Managing Editor and Director of Publications Peter Walton, Associate Editor Heather Mawhiney, Senior Editorial Associate Committee on Studies and Publications John Mark Hansen and Jerrold Meinwald, Cochairs; Bonnie Bassler, Rosina Bierbaum, Marshall Carter, Gerald Early, Carol Gluck, Linda Greenhouse, John Hildebrand, Philip Khoury, Arthur Kleinman, Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot, Rose McDermott, Nancy C. Andrews (ex of½cio), Jonathan F. Fanton (ex of½cio), Diane P. Wood (ex of½cio) Inside front cover: A displaced woman carries goods as United Nations Mis- sion in South Sudan (unmiss) peacekeepers patrol outside the premises of the un Protection of Civilians (poc) site in Juba on October 4, 2016. According to the un, due to the increase of sexual violence outside the poc, unmiss has intensified its patrols in and around the protection sites, as well as in the wider Juba city area, sometimes arranging special escorts for women and young girls. © 2016 Albert González Farran/Getty Images. Ending Civil Wars: Constraints & Possibilities Winter 2018 8 Introduction Karl Eikenberry & Stephen D. Krasner Norms & Domestic Factors 15 The Last English Civil War Francis Fukuyama 25 Religionist Rebels & the Sovereignty of the Divine Tanisha M. Fazal 36 Jihadi Rebels in Civil War Stathis N. Kalyvas 48 Civil War, Economic Governance & State Reconstruction in the Arab Middle East Steven Heydemann Policy Prescriptions 64 Is Prevention the Answer? Charles T. Call & Susanna P. Campbell 78 Ending the Sri Lankan Civil War Sumit Ganguly 90 Sovereignty Strategies: Enhancing Core Governance Functions as a Postconfl ict & Confl ict-Prevention Measure Clare Lockhart 104 Limited Statehood Does Not Equal Civil War Thomas Risse & Eric Stollenwerk 116 Building Good (Enough) Governance in Postconfl ict Societies & Areas of Limited Statehood: The European Union & the Western Balkans Tanja A. Börzel & Sonja Grimm 128 The Practicalities of Living with Failed States Seyoum Mesfin & Abdeta Dribssa Beyene 141 Syria & the CNN Effect: What Role Does the Media Play in Policy-Making? Lyse Doucet 158 In Defense of Ambition: Building Peaceful & Inclusive Societies in a World on Fire Nancy E. Lindborg & J. Joseph Hewitt 171 The International Regime for Treating Civil War, 1988–2017 Richard Gowan & Stephen John Stedman 185 The United Nations & Civil Wars Jean-Marie Guéhenno 197 Conclusion Stephen D. Krasner & Karl Eikenberry Civil Wars & Global Disorder: Threats & Opportunities Fall 2017 Introduction Karl Eikenberry & Stephen D. Krasner Civil Confl icts: Contexts & Risks Civil War & the Current International System James D. Fearon Civil Wars & the Post–Cold War International Order Bruce D. Jones & Stephen John Stedman Civil Wars & Transnational Threats: Mapping the Terrain, Assessing the Links Stewart Patrick Transnational Jihadism & Civil Wars Martha Crenshaw Civil War & the Global Threat of Pandemics Paul H. Wise & Michele Barry The Global Refugee Crisis: Regional Destabilization & Humanitarian Protection Sarah Kenyon Lischer Organized Crime, Illicit Economies, Civil Violence & International Order: More Complex Than You Think Vanda Felbab-Brown The Diffi culty of Solutions Civil Wars as Challenges to the Modern International System Hendrik Spruyt Building Security Forces & Stabilizing Nations: The Problem of Agency Stephen Biddle Fictional States & Atomized Public Spheres: A Non-Western Approach to Fragility William Reno The Colombian Paradox: Peace Processes, Elite Divisions & Popular Plebiscites Aila M. Matanock & Miguel García-Sánchez Civil Wars & the Structure of World Power Barry R. Posen Civil Wars & Global Disorder: Threats & Opportunities Dædalus Fall 2017 Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Introduction Karl Eikenberry & Stephen D. Krasner Civil Conflicts: Contexts & Risks Civil War & the Current International System James D. Fearon Civil Wars & the Post–Cold War International Order Bruce D. Jones & Stephen John Stedman Civil Wars & Transnational Threats: Mapping the Terrain, Assessing the Links Stewart Patrick Transnational Jihadism & Civil Wars Martha Crenshaw Civil War & the Global Threat of Pandemics Paul H. Wise & Michele Barry The Global Refugee Crisis: Regional Destabilization & Humanitarian Protection Sarah Kenyon Lischer Organized Crime, Illicit Economies, Civil Violence & International Order: The labyrinth designed by Dædalus for King Minos of Crete, on a silver tetradrachma from More Complex Than You Think Cnossos, Crete, c. 350–300 bc (35 mm, Cabinet des Médailles, Bibliothèque Nationale, Paris). “Such was the work, so intricate the place, / That scarce the workman all its turns Vanda Felbab-Brown cou’d trace; / And Dædalus was puzzled how to ½nd / The secret ways of what himself design’d.”–Ovid, Metamorphoses, Book 8 The Difficulty of Solutions Civil Wars as Challenges to the Modern International System Dædalus was founded in 1955 and established as a quarterly in 1958. The Hendrik Spruyt journal’s namesake was renowned in ancient Greece as an inventor, scientist, Building Security Forces & Stabilizing Nations: The Problem of Agency and unriddler of riddles. Its emblem, a maze seen from above, symbolizes Stephen Biddle the aspiration of its founders to “lift each of us above his cell in the labyrinth of learning in order that he may see the entire structure as if from above, Fictional States & Atomized Public Spheres: A Non-Western Approach to Fragility where each separate part loses its comfortable separateness.” William Reno The American Academy of Arts & Sciences, like its journal, brings together distinguished individuals from every ½eld of human endeavor. It was char- The Colombian Paradox: Peace Processes, Elite Divisions & Popular Plebiscites tered in 1780 as a forum “to cultivate every art and science which may tend to Aila M. Matanock & Miguel García-Sánchez advance the interest, honour, dignity, and happiness of a free, independent, Civil Wars & the Structure of World Power and virtuous people.” Now in its third century, the Academy, with its more Barry R. Posen than ½ve thousand members, continues to provide intellectual leadership to meet the critical challenges facing our world. Correction Notice: The map of Civil Wars Subscription rates: Electronic only for non- Around the World Since 1990 in the Fall 2017 member individuals–$51; institutions–$154. issue on “Civil Wars & Global Disorder: Threats Canadians add 5% gst. Print and electronic & Opportunities” highlighted Ireland, rather for nonmember individuals–$57; institutions– than Northern Ireland. An updated map appears $193. Canadians add 5% gst. Outside the United on the opposite page. States and Canada add $24 for postage and han- dling. Prices subject to change without notice. Dædalus Winter 2018 Institutional subscriptions are on a volume-year Issued as Volume 147, Number 1 basis. All other subscriptions begin with the © 2018 by the American Academy next available issue. of Arts & Sciences Single issues: $15 for individuals; $38 for insti- Religionist Rebels & the Sovereignty of the Divine tutions. Outside the United States and Canada, © 2018 by Tanisha M. Fazal add $6 per issue for postage and handling. Prices Sovereignty Strategies: Enhancing Core Governance subject to change without notice. Functions as a Postconflict & Conflict-Prevention Measure Claims for missing issues will be honored free © 2018 by Clare Lockhart of charge if made within three months of the Building Good (Enough) Governance in Postconflict publication date of the issue. Claims may be Societies & Areas of Limited Statehood: submitted to [email protected]. Members of The European Union & the Western Balkans the American Academy please direct all ques- © 2018 by Tanja A. Börzel