Pugwash NEWSLETTER

issued by the Council of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs Nobel Peace Prize 1995

53rd Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, July 2003

Volume 40 Number 2 December 2003 T ABLE OF CONTENTS

To the Pugwash Community ...... 1

53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE ON SCIENCE AND WORLD AFFAIRS: Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14-22 July 2003

Welcome Address—Senator Douglas Roche ...... 3 Statement of the Pugwash Council ...... 5

Conference Schedule ...... 7

53rd Pugwash Conference Working Groups ...... 9 Reports of the Conference Working Groups ...... 10

Report from International Student/Young Pugwash ...... 26

Pugwash Returns to Thinkers’ Lodge, 20 July 2003 Opening Remarks—Patrick Boyer ...... 33 Remarks by Joseph Rotblat and Ruth Adams ...... 35

PEACE, a poem by Margaret Eaton ...... 35 Message from the Hon. Kofi Annan ...... 38

Keynote Address—Honorable Susan Whelan, Minister for International Cooperation, Government of Canada...... 40

Dorothy Hodgkin Memorial Lecture—Jayantha Dhanapala ...... 44

Report of the Secretary General ...... 52

Public Forum—Sir Joseph Rotblat ...... 57

Select Papers from the 53rd Pugwash Conference ...... 64 Walter Dorn, H. Peter Langille, Bas de Gay Fortman, Erika Simpson, Pugwash Pervez Hoodbhoy, Richard Garwin, Christie Dennison Volume 40 Number 2 List of Participants...... 114 December 2003

Editor: MEMBERS OF THE PUGWASH COUNCIL ...... 123 Jeffrey Boutwell Research Assistant: CALENDAR OF FUTURE MEETINGS ...... inside back cover Apple T. Plotnick Design and Layout: Anne Read To the Pugwash Community

he 53rd Conference brought 172 scientists and whole conference group into “discussion mode.” The first scholars from 39 countries to Halifax Canada for day was completed with a reception at historic City Hall. Ta conference with a familiar format, and at the Even as the first sessions began, and throughout, we same time it was unique in its stimulation of both an intel- received significant media attention nationally and lectual response and a heartfelt intensity in relation to its locally—on TV, radio and newspapers, thus raising public theme “Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technol- awareness of current issues in nuclear disarmament, mis- ogy and Politics.” The Canadian Pugwash Group, with 30 sile defense, peacekeeping, terrorism, human development attendees, was delighted with its role as host, and the and environmental change. chance to have first meetings with new Pugwashites at the Eminent speakers addressed the conference through airport, in the university residences, at meals and, of several invited lectures. Dr. Jayantha Dhanapala, (former) course, in the conference venues at Dalhousie University. Undersecretary-General of the United Nations for Disar- Evidence of our success at mament Affairs, gave the fostering the right conference Dorothy Hodgkin Lecture, a ambience is found in the fol- central event of the Confer- lowing sample comment “I ence. Professor M.S. Swami- have benefited a lot in meet- nathan, President of ing and having introduction Pugwash Conferences, world to different professors leader in agricultural plant around the world and their genetics and the head of the diverse views. I found flexi- research institute bearing his bility and responsibility name, at Chennai, India gave among the participants which the President’s lecture on the made me impressed. Indeed topic of sustainable food security. The closing dinner this sort of gathering will Halifax waterfront. have great impact on global was addressed by Chris security affairs. I am also impressed with the working sys- Bryant, Dept. of Economic Development, Nova Scotia on tem of Pugwash and its background. As a new member, I the topic “All Security is Local.” Professor Sir Joseph Rot- am proud of it and will do my best to achieve its aims.” blat, Nobel Laureate and founder of the Pugwash move- The opening session of the conference heard a welcom- ment, gave the Public Forum lecture on the topic “The ing address by Senator Douglas Roche, O.C., Chair, Cana- Nuclear Issue: Pugwash and the Bush Policies.” It was a dian Pugwash Group, and then received the report of Sec- night to remember, as Jo Rotblat received a standing ova- retary-General Paolo Cotta-Ramusino. The support of the tion for his incisive analysis of the current problems in host country is demonstrated by several means, the most nuclear disarmament. Through media interviews, many visible of which is the participation of senior government others had a chance to hear his views, and all of us officials. The Hon. Susan Whelan, Minister of admired his stamina and patience for interviews in the face International Cooperation, gave the keynote speech “Pro- of a very full schedule. moting Human Security After Conflict.” Minister Whelan The entire conference convened in Pugwash, Nova chaired a lively question and answer session that lifted the Scotia at Thinkers Lodge, the place of origin, on a day 53rd Pugwash Conference billed as “Back to group that, we believe, Pugwash.” It was a high has enduring value. point for many who had Many excellent papers spent years in the were presented, but are Pugwash movement, not seen in this because very few of the newsletter due to space Pugwashites had ever limitations. We partic- seen Pugwash. The con- ularly commend the ference grew too large ISYP members for their for the original venue mature and insightful after only a couple of contributions to the years from its first meet- WG discussions, and ing in 1957, at which presented papers. One there were 22 scientists of the six papers, the from 10 countries. Jo Standing: Raymond Szabo, Bryan Jamieson, Margaret Eaton, one from WG6 is from Giovanni Brenciaglia. Sitting: M.S. Swaminathan, Joseph Rotblat, Rotblat and Ruth Ruth Adams, Patrick Boyer a student contributor. Adams, representing the Only with financial 1957 group, both addressed the crowd, seated on the contributions and the work of many volunteers and staff lawn, with the sea in the background. An open plenary can we proceed with the annual Pugwash Conference on session was held at the local high school, and as we Science and World Affairs. For the 53rd Conference, we boarded the buses after the elegant final reception at the gratefully acknowledge the support received from several Thinkers Lodge, it was not hard to see that many felt Canadian government agencies, private foundations, and reluctant to leave. For a day to remember, all Pugwashites friends of Pugwash: attending would undoubtedly be glad to join us in thank- Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade ing the Pugwash Park Commission for arranging such a (DFAIT); Peacebuilding and Human Security Division; fine event. Canada International Development Agency (CIDA); The ultimate goal for this specific Conference was to Conference Secretariat; Social Sciences and Humanities advance human security by dialogue with stakeholders, Research Council (SSHRC); Province of Nova Scotia; and by new viewpoints that would strengthen Canada and Regional Municipality of Halifax; Cyrus Eaton Founda- the global community in their ability to respond to threats tion; Ploughshares Fund; Cut Foundation; Nancy Ruth; to human security. The Pugwash Conferences are ongoing; Anonymous; Resource and Conflict Analysis Inc.: Post- because of this continuity, the impact level sought for the Communist Studies, York University; University College conference is enhancement of the freedom and safety of of Cape Breton; International Pugwash; Canadian citizens. The conference outcomes, as seen in the Working Pugwash Group; Members of Canadian Pugwash. Group Reports, and the various speeches of the confer- To all who made the effort to come to Halifax, Nova ence, are on the website www.pugwash.org, thus enabling Scotia, Canada, we say thanks and hope you will come the possibility of a wide readership. again. A number of Working Group papers were very signifi- In peace, cant, and from those, we have selected a representative Adele Buckley, Chair, Halifax Conference Committee

2 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

Welcome Address notwithstanding, the world is moving to new levels of danger. By Senator Douglas Roche, O.C.,Chairman, Canadian Pugwash Group A few weeks ago, the Mayor of Hiroshima, Tadatoshi Akiba, warned: “We stand today on the brink of am honoured, on behalf of the NATO. The Non-Proliferation Treaty hyper-proliferation and perhaps of Canadian Pugwash Group, to has been indefinitely extended. repeating the third actual use of Iwelcome everyone to the 53rd But the one change that Pugwash nuclear weapons.” A few days ago, Pugwash Conference on Science and stands for, the one change the seeking Amnesty International, in its annual World Affairs: “Advancing Human of which won for Sir Joseph Rotblat report, said the world has become a Security: The Role of Technology and and Pugwash the 1995 Nobel Peace more dangerous place: “The war on Politics.” Prize, the one change directed by the terror, far from making the world a I give a special welcome to the International Court of Justice, the safer place, has made it more danger- President of Pugwash, Professor M.S. one change called for by a myriad of ous by curtailing human rights, Swaminathan; the Secretary-General, United Nations resolutions, the one undermining the rule of international Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino; the change yearned for by millions law, and shielding governments from Executive Director, Dr. Jeffrey around the world—the abolition of scrutiny.” Boutwell; and the Chair of the Pug- nuclear weapons—has not happened. These are not cheery forecasts for wash Council, Professor Marie At the 1981 Conference in Banff, humanity. We in Pugwash do not Muller, as well as all my colleagues calls were made for a nuclear freeze belong to the “gloom and doom” on the Pugwash Council. and to eliminate tactical nuclear school, neither do we believe in Dalhousie University, Halifax, weapons from Europe. Afterwards, ignoring warning bells. Nova Scotia, and Canada greet you the Pugwash Council said clearly: “It September 11, 2001 was certainly warmly and we hope that your stay is a fallacy to believe that nuclear war such a warning bell for humanity. Ter- at this conference will be pleasant can be won.” Leaders of the nuclear rorism is growing. We must not only and productive. The outstanding powers were urged to explicitly deny deal with terrorism but also examine work of Adele Buckley and the Hali- military doctrines which legitimize the whole canvas of violence in the fax Planning Committee have limited nuclear warfare. The Council world. The division of the world into prepared an excellent program for of the day looked outward at the rich and poor, the hegemony of the you. growing human needs for security powerful over the vulnerable, the Only once before, in 1981 in and declared: “The investment in retention of nuclear weapons by some Banff, Alberta, has Pugwash held its arms is non-productive and diverts while proscribing their acquisition by annual conference in Canada. The 22 badly needed resources from a others—all this is de-stabilizing the years that have elapsed have seen nation’s capacity to meet human world at the very moment society many changes. The Cold War, during needs and for development.” should be concentrating its energies which Pugwash first brought Soviet If the Pugwash words were pre- on building a culture of peace. and American scientists together, has scient in 1981, they are compelling Pugwash does believe a culture of ended. Russia has entered the halls of today. For, the end of the Cold War peace is possible. The gathering

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 3 Pugwash Meeting No. 280

vention and the Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention. Conventional weapons, too, ranging from small arms to antipersonnel mines to new high-technology weapons are of deep concern to Pugwash. From weapons of mass destruction to new develop- ments in biotechnology and other sciences, Pugwash accepts the respon- sibility to stress the ethical and moral responsibility of scientists to further the beneficial applications of their work and prevent their misuse. Almost by definition, Pugwash must look into the future to help guide the formulation of the public policy process. That is why it is so important to have young Pugwashites Sen. Douglas Roche welcomes conference participants. among us. We must enlarge not only the Student Pugwash membership forces of civil society may one day Quinquennium, 2002-2007, were set but the ways Pugwash as a whole can bring it about. Pugwash offers the down. The very first words of this reach out to new generations of sci- world that hope. stirring call to action speak of “the entists, academics, analysts, and pol- Indeed, the Pugwash Mission overriding peril” to humanity by the icy-makers. Statement affirms that our purpose is vast destructive power of nuclear Our work at the Halifax Confer- to bring scientific insight and reason weapons, and the increased threat ence is cut out for us. We are here for to bear on threats to human security due to proliferation. The listing of the the most serious of purposes: to con- arising from science and technology new dangers and the new strain the tribute to the safety and human secu- in general, and above all from the non-proliferation regime is under are rity of the world around us. catastrophic threat posed to human- sobering. Thus the Pugwash goal of I think it will be hard to exceed ity by nuclear and other weapons of reducing and eliminating the nuclear the inspiration that awaits us on our mass destruction. The Pugwash peril will be more important than trip Sunday to the Thinkers’ Lodge in agenda extends to ways of alleviating ever in the Tenth Quinquennium. Pugwash, Nova Scotia. This is the conditions of economic depriva- The Goals Document challenges “where it all began.” The vision of tion, environmental deterioration each one of us: “Pugwash is strongly Cyrus Eaton in bringing the first Pug- and resource scarcity and exploita- committed to the goal of abolishing washites to the Thinkers’ Lodge has tion that so readily give rise to resent- all nuclear weapons. It is imperative flowed through to today. Patrick ment, hostility and violence through- that Pugwash constantly remind the Boyer, Giovanni Brenciaglia and the out the world. This noble work is international community of the Pugwash Parks Commission have inspired by the Russell-Einstein Man- immorality, illegality, and peril inher- prepared an outstanding program for ifesto of 1955, which called upon ent in nuclear weapons, and to pro- you. You have a treat in store. leaders of the world to renounce pose concrete steps toward their Welcome again. We are thrilled to nuclear weapons and “remember elimination.” have you in our midst. Enjoy the their humanity.” The Pugwash agenda also pays Canadian hospitality. Last year, at the La Jolla Confer- attention to increasing the effective- Let the conference begin. ence, the goals for Pugwash’s Tenth ness of the Chemical Weapons Con-

4 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

Statement of the Pugwash Council national security for the indefinite future. This and other US policies run 22 July 2003, Halifax, Nova Scotia directly counter to the full implemen- tation of the thirteen practical steps it he Pugwash Council, meeting nisms, are an indication of the serious and other nuclear states agreed to during the 53rd Pugwash challenges faced by the international during the Non-Proliferation Treaty TConference held in Halifax community in commonly protecting (NPT) Review Conference held in and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, is human security. 2000, as well as to its obligations extremely concerned that the dangers The world today must acknowl- under Article VI of the NPT to work posed by nuclear weapons are edge, confront, and overcome the cur- for the elimination of nuclear increasing the risk of a nuclear cata- rent paralysis engendered by ‘the weapons. Inter alia, the US adminis- strophe. Widening cracks in the banality of nuclear weapons.’ In the tration is exploring the development nuclear non-proliferation regime, the same way that a ‘banality of evil’ of new nuclear weapons, may well deadlock in nuclear arms control, made possible the holocaust of the resume nuclear testing, has with- renewed interest in nuclear war-fight- Final Solution, so now has public drawn from the 1972 ABM Treaty ing strategies, inadequate measures to acquiescence to the continued and will shortly deploy missile control and dispose of fissile materi- primacy of nuclear weapons in world defenses (of dubious military value), als, the near term deployment of mis- affairs, almost 60 years after their cat- and seems committed to violating the sile defenses and the prospect of astrophic effects were demonstrated non-weaponized environment of weapons in space, all point to the at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, made outer space by deploying a space very real possibility of nuclear more likely a nuclear holocaust. weapons test-bed by 2008. Without a weapons being used, whether in con- The world’s peoples will not, of 180 degree reversal of US nuclear flict, by miscalculation or accident, course, be directly responsible for weapons policies, there is no chance or by terrorists. such a catastrophe if it happens, but of eliminating the incentives of other Of equal concern to the Council, they will be its primary victims. countries to acquire nuclear weapons and directly related to the militariza- Those responsible will be the leaders and abolishing such weapons entirely. tion of global affairs spawned by the of countries who have failed to recog- This failure of American leader- so-called ‘war on terrorism,’ are the nize that nuclear weapons represent ship by no means absolves a large marginalization of international insti- the single, largest danger to the secu- number of other countries and gov- tutions, especially the United rity of the international community. ernments from their failure to act Nations, the diversion of resources Primary among these is the cur- decisively to eliminate the nuclear away from meeting challenges to rent US administration, which has threat. global sustainability, and a weaken- abdicated its moral responsibility as The withdrawal by North Korea ing of fundamental civil liberties and the world’s strongest power in not from the Non-Proliferation Treaty basic human security protections. taking the lead to rid the world of and uncertainties over its nuclear The illegality under international law nuclear weapons. To the contrary, the aims is a major cause of international of the war on Iraq, and the disdain of US administration has declared its concern. Through urgent negotiations the US administration for seeking intention of relying on nuclear and international diplomacy a com- security through multilateral mecha- weapons as a core component of US monly satisfying agreement can be

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 5 53rd Pugwash Conference found between the main regional incorporating nuclear weapons. ing the 53rd Pugwash Conference, powers, in which North Korea In a world where many govern- new technologies hold out both receives security and non-aggression ments often emphasize exhortation promises and challenges in the sus- guarantees while renouncing in a ver- over concrete action in the pursuit of tainable use of resources and the use ifiable manner, once and for all, its a world free of nuclear weapons, of new biotechnologies in agriculture, capability to acquire nuclear Pugwash supports the important con- medicine and other fields. In all such weapons. tribution to the strengthening of the endeavors, it is crucially important In the Middle East, the continued Non-Proliferation Treaty made by for scientists to remember their indi- existence of Israel’s nuclear weapons the New Agenda Coalition and urges vidual responsibility regarding the and ambiguity over Iran’s intentions even stronger dialogue between the beneficial applications of their work regarding it’s nuclear infrastructure New Agenda countries and the in promoting true human security for and the IAEA additional protocol nuclear weapons states. all individuals. complicate efforts to achieve true In seeking to mobilize world pub- All such improvements in the regional peace and stability and cre- lic opinion to demand concrete and human condition, however, will be ate a region free of weapons of mass immediate steps to reverse current for naught if a nuclear catastrophe destruction. developments that threaten the use of occurs. The world stands on the In South Asia, the two newest nuclear weapons, the Pugwash Coun- knife-edge of the nuclear dilemma. nuclear weapons states, India and cil feels it imperative that global Will it myopically continue to accord Pakistan, need to resolve their long- action be undertaken to exert all pos- nuclear weapons a primary role in standing conflict over Kashmir and sible pressure on governments to act world politics and face the ultimate cross-border terrorism while moving in concert to rid the world of nuclear threat of nuclear devastation, or will decisively to reduce the nuclear threat weapons. the global community stand up, say between them. Human security for the world’s no, and take the necessary action to The other four original nuclear peoples is at greater and greater risk. at last rid the world of the prospect powers—Russia, the United The large majority of them continue of nuclear annihilation? Kingdom, France, and China—con- to face unacceptable depredation in Between now and the 2005 NPT tinue to rely on nuclear weapons for their access to water, food, health Review Conference, the international deterrence despite the inherent dan- care, resources, and basic security. community has the opportunity to gers of doing so. Similarly, the mem- Intensive international cooperation, move decisively away from a contin- bers of NATO exhibit an irrational especially between industrial and ued and dangerous reliance on attachment to US nuclear weapons as developing countries, is needed to nuclear weapons. Progress toward part of NATO strategy, at a time redress these imbalances, many of achieving the 13 practical steps when NATO faces no threat and can which contribute directly to human agreed to in 2000, as well as the entry have no reason for a military strategy insecurity and conflict. As noted dur- into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, accelerated reductions in US and Russian nuclear forces beyond what is called for in the May 2002 Moscow Treaty, improved accounting for and control of fissile material, reductions in tactical nuclear weapons, and solutions to regional nuclear crises, all would contribute to moving the world away from the catastrophic dangers to human security inherent in a contin- ued misplaced reliance on nuclear Pugwash Council meets with International Student/Young Pugwash. weapons for national security.

6 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

MONDAY, JULY 14 19:00-22:00 International Student/Young Pugwash (ISYP) Board Meeting

TUESDAY, JULY 15 14:30-17:30 ISYP Symposium “The Role of the UN after the Iraqi Crisis” 19:30-21:00 ISYP Working Groups A and B

WEDNESDAY, 16 JULY 09:00-12:30 Pugwash Council Meeting/ISYP Conference 14:30-17:30 Pugwash Council Meeting/ISYP Conference

THURSDAY, 17 JULY 09:00-11:30 Pugwash Council Meeting/ISYP Conference 11:30-12:30 Pugwash Council members meet with ISYP Pugwash 14:00-15:30 PLENARY SESSION 1 [Closed] (McCain Building, Scotiabank Auditorium) Chair: Douglas Roche Welcoming address by Chair of Canadian Pugwash Douglas Roche Report of Pugwash Secretary General Paolo Cotta-Ramusino 16:00-17:30 PLENARY SESSION 2 [Open] Chair: M.S. Swaminathan Keynote Speaker: Hon. Susan Whelan, Minister of International Cooperation 18:00-19:00 Reception: City of Halifax —City Hall Remarks: Mayor Peter Kelly Response: Sec.-Gen. Paolo Cotta Ramusino

FRIDAY, 18 JULY 09:00-12:30 Working Groups 1-6 meet (McCain Building) 14:30-18:00 Working Groups 1-6 meet 20:00-22:00 PUBLIC FORUM (McCain- Ondajtee Auditorium) [Open] Chair: Marie Muller Speaker: Sir Joseph Rotblat, President Emeritus—Pugwash (UK)

SATURDAY, 19 JULY 09:00-12:30 Working Groups 1-6 meet 14:00-15:30 PLENARY SESSION 3 [Open] Chair: Jeffrey Boutwell Human Security and the Middle East Speakers: Galia Golan (Israel), Gabriel Baramki (Palestine), Mohamed Kadry Said (Egypt)

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 7 53rd Pugwash Conference

16:00-18:00 PLENARY SESSION 4 [Open] Chair: Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Eliminating the Threat of Nuclear Weapons Speakers: Miguel Marin-Bosch (Mexico), Pan Zhenqiang (China), John Holdren (USA) 18:00-19:00 Pugwash Council meets representatives of National Pugwash Groups

SUNDAY 20 JULY 10:00-11:30 Reception at Thinker’s Lodge, Pugwash, Nova Scotia Introduction and welcoming address by Patrick Boyer Pugwash: past and present history, comments by Joseph Rotblat, Ruth Adams 11:30-12:30 Tours of Thinkers’ Lodge 12:30-13:30 Lunch at Pugwash District High School & Joseph Rotblat Hall 14:30-16:15 PLENARY SESSION 5 [Open] Pugwash District High School Chair: Ochieng Adala (Kenya) Cooperative Security and the Future of Multinational Institutions Speakers: Robert Lawson (Canada), Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka), Vladimir Baranovski (Russia), Steven Miller (USA) 16:30-17:30 Closing Reception at Thinkers’ Lodge 17:30 Departure by bus for dinner at Truro (enroute to Halifax) 18:30-20:00 Dinner at Truro 20:00 Departure for Halifax

MONDAY, 21 JULY 09:00-10:30 PLENARY SESSION 6 [Closed] Chair: Anne McLaren (UK) Reports on Working Groups 1, 2, 3 11:00-12:15 PLENARY SESSION 7 [Open] Chair: Douglas Roche Dorothy Hodgkin Lecture by Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka) 14:00-15:30 PLENARY SESSION 8 [Closed] Chair: Adele Buckley Reports on Working Groups 4, 5, 6 16:00-18:00 PLENARY SESSION 9 [Open] Chair: Pervez Hoodbhoy Presidential Lecture by M.S. Swaminathan Final remarks by Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Jeffrey Boutwell 18:30-21:30 Reception and Closing Banquet (University Club) M.C.: Adele Buckley Banquet Speaker: Chris Bryant, Department of Economic Development, Nova Scotia Downeast Entertainment: Background music and half hour performance

TUESDAY, 22 JULY 09:00-12:30 Pugwash Council Meeting 14:00-16:00 Pugwash Council Meeting

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Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

Working Groups

WG1: WG4: NUCLEAR WEAPONS TERRORISM Status of and prospect for nuclear disarmament. Terrorism: its roots and its divisive effects on the world Prospects for the 13 steps decided at the 2002 NPT community Review Conference Technology and the prevention of terrorism. Recent developments in nuclear proliferation Antiterrorism and limitation of civil liberties Current strategies and postures of nuclear-armed states. Preventing terrorists from obtaining weapons of mass No first use destruction

WG2: WG5: WEAPONIZATION OF SPACE NEW TECHNOLOGY FOR HUMAN AND MISSILE DEFENSE DEVELOPMENT AND SECURITY Missile defense and space weapons Communications, monitoring and information technology for human protection Weaponization of space and its impact on civil activities Agricultural biotechnology Preserving the non-weaponization of space International cooperation to promote equity in human development WG3: INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND HUMAN SECURITY WG6: Role of international institutions in the prevention of MITIGATION OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE armed conflict. Civilian protection and humanitarian assistance Advances in modeling and long-term global energy trends Multilateral actions and unilateral initiatives Initiatives and technology to limit human-induced global changes Post-conflict reconstruction; governance; assistance to democratization Access to and availability of energy, water, food

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 9 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

REPORTS OF THE CONFERENCE WORKING GROUPS

role and capacity of the IAEA in Report on Working Group 1 these matters must be strengthened. Nuclear Weapons Furthermore, the recent US trend Co-conveners: Dr. Jo Husbands (USA) and towards expansion of the options for General Pan Zhenqiang (China) usage of nuclear weapons should be Rapporteur: Dr. Bob van der Zwaan (The Netherlands) reversed, especially their use against non-nuclear weapon countries, as unambiguously allowed in its Introduction Next steps for non-proliferation Nuclear Posture Review. Countries in Today, the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament both bilateral and multilateral secu- and disarmament process faces its In concreto, achieving full implemen- rity alliances with the US, which greatest challenge since the end of the tation of the 13 practical steps agreed include policies allowing the first use Cold War. With the increasingly upon at the NPT Review Conference of nuclear weapons, must resolve the urgent danger of regional nuclear in the year 2000 is essential. In par- tension between these policies and proliferation, and with a US Admin- ticular, a number of actions should be their NPT obligations. istration that has shifted from its ear- undertaken with high priority. Strate- lier nuclear policy, in which nuclear gic nuclear arms agreements between Low-yield and tactical nuclear weapons weapons were regarded as weapons the Russian Federation and the US, in of last resort, to one in which it may particular the May 2002 ‘Moscow The development of new or modified use nuclear weapons for preemptive Treaty’, should be promptly imple- nuclear weapons should be purposes—also in cases of non- mented and expanded. Reduced war- renounced as contrary to the 2000 nuclear threats and against non- heads and their delivery systems NPT Review Conference nuclear weapon states—the nuclear should be dismantled irreversibly in a commitment to a diminishing role of non-proliferation regime is currently transparent and verifiable manner. nuclear weapons in security policies in a profound crisis. Remaining deployed Russian and US and the NPT article VI obligation of As participants of Working nuclear forces should be de-alerted to a cessation of the nuclear arms race. Group 1, we want to draw renewed further reduce the operational status Current US movement towards the attention to the present nuclear disar- of nuclear weapons systems. The development of low-yield nuclear mament deadlock, and, while empha- entry into force of the CTBT should weapons, as well as the concurrent sizing the need to imminently find be achieved, and until that time the evolution of the designing of ever regional solutions for the world’s moratorium on nuclear testing more powerful conventional most worrisome nuclear emergencies, should be strictly observed. A process weapons, could blur the distinction we point out that increasing urgency of improved accounting for and con- between nuclear and conventional exists to seek a universal elimination trol of fissile materials holdings weapons, and could render nuclear of nuclear weapons. Mankind there- should be created on a worldwide weapons more usable. Once the fore ought to address without delay basis. Negotiations should be com- development of low-yield nuclear the lack of progress in solving these menced on a fissile materials produc- weapons reaches its test phase, a col- nuclear threats. tion ban and reduction plan, and the lapse of the global testing

10 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference moratorium of nuclear weapons is that are embedded in the broader counter-proliferation. With possibili- likely to follow, and perhaps even political context of the region under ties of a nuclear response to chemical that of the entire NPT regime itself. consideration. More nuclear-weapon- or biological attack, a danger now For these reasons, the free-zones should be established cov- exists of a further abuse of nuclear development of low-yield nuclear ering territories as large as possible. weapons. Nuclear war has been weapons constitutes a significant In particular, nuclear non-prolifera- avoided so far largely because of the menace to the present non-prolifera- tion should be integrated in regional taboo against the military use of tion regime. The prevention of the conflict resolution and confidence nuclear weapons during each succes- development of low-yield nuclear building measures in the Middle East sive decade of the nuclear era. Any weapons is to be included in future and South Asia. Such regional and such use in the future would destroy non-proliferation efforts. Also exist- step-by-step approaches could initi- whatever remains of that taboo. ing tactical nuclear weapons should ate a process towards the universal be included in future nuclear disar- elimination and abolition of nuclear Nuclear awareness mament negotiations. In particular, weapons. Strengthening public awareness US tactical nuclear weapons deployed about the dangers inherent in nuclear under NATO auspices in Europe Nuclear relations weapons may contribute to a greater should be unilaterally removed, and a During the Cold War, global nuclear international effort for nuclear non- wider process of reduction of US and relations rested on two mutually sup- proliferation and disarmament. For Russian tactical nuclear weapons portive arrangements: the elaborate many, the end of the Cold War should be created. structure of nuclear deterrence and implied the end of the nuclear threat. the non-proliferation regime. A The lack of public concern regarding Regional crises rough equality of military power was the continuously existing and proba- The current crisis on the Korean measured in terms of assured mutual bly increasing nuclear threat, how- peninsula constitutes one of the most destruction, while uneven distribu- ever, contrasts starkly with the way urgent nuclear threats the world faces tion of military nuclear capabilities international events have moved over today. While the US – North Korean assured a rank ordering among the past few years. Efforts to deadlock is profound and intricate, nuclear weapon powers. This balance convince the public that nuclear we believe that finding a sustainable of terror created a semblance of weapons pose a dangerous liability and peaceful solution to the present order, based primarily on the for mankind need greatly enhanced. dilemma is not only possible but also unprecedented common interest of all An international public information imperative. Through urgent negotia- states in avoiding a nuclear effort is needed to raise nuclear tions and international diplomacy a holocaust. Thanks to the NPT, weapons higher up the political commonly satisfying agreement can nuclear weapon and non-nuclear agenda, to a level where governments be found between the main regional weapon states found a common will have to engage in the debate and protagonists, in which North Korea ground in averting the spread of be responsive to a growing body of is given the security and non-aggres- nuclear weapons with all undertaking public opinion that is opposed to the sion guarantees it desires, while respective obligations. possession and threatened use of renouncing in a verifiable manner Today, the situation has funda- nuclear weapons. Heightened aware- once and for all its endeavors to mentally changed. The US no longer ness should also be realized of the acquire nuclear weapons. In the sees nuclear arms control as an essen- threat of terrorist use of nuclear longer run, a gradual process of con- tial part of its nuclear policy and is devices and materials, or terrorist sensus building should lead to a instigating substantial changes in the attacks against nuclear facilities, Peace Treaty. nuclear non-proliferation regime. including those related to the civil Similarly in other parts of the Considerable unease exists about nuclear power industry. world, regional approaches to nuclear combining the campaign against ter- It is not easy to see an immediate non-proliferation should be realized rorism with preventive or preemptive way forward for an effective public

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 11 53rd Pugwash Conference

information program that may clarify nuclear weapons constitutes a sig- all its endeavors to acquire nuclear the need for a process towards the nificant menace to the present non- weapons. universal elimination of nuclear proliferation regime and its preven- • Similarly in other parts of the weapons. One message seems to be tion should therefore be included in world, regional approaches to clear, however: it is important to future non-proliferation efforts, nuclear non-proliferation should be remind everyone of the constant while a reduction of tactical nuclear realized on the way towards univer- nuclear threat and the horrifying con- weapons should be included in sal elimination of nuclear weapons, sequences of the use of nuclear future disarmament negotiations. and, in particular, nuclear non-pro- weapons. Whereas the crisis in the • Through urgent negotiations and liferation should be integrated in nuclear non-proliferation and disar- international diplomacy a peaceful regional conflict resolution and mament process is enormous, we solution and commonly satisfying confidence building measures in the think that positive ways exist out of agreement can be found between Middle East and South Asia. the current perilous situation. Much the main regional protagonists in • Strengthening public awareness more thought and effort are needed the crisis on the Korean peninsula, about the dangers inherent in to try to escape from today’s nuclear in which North Korea is given the nuclear weapons may contribute to crisis. The Pugwash Conferences on security and non-aggression guar- a greater international effort for Science and World Affairs can play a antees it desires, while renouncing realizing nuclear non-proliferation unique role in both educating and in a verifiable manner once and for and disarmament. providing expertise information.

Concise summary Report on Working Group 2 • With the increasingly urgent danger Weaponisation of Space and Missile Defence of regional nuclear proliferation, and with a US Administration that Co-Conveners: John Rhinelander (USA) and Rebecca Johnson (UK) has shifted from its earlier nuclear Co-Rapporteurs: Will Marshall (UK), Robert Schingler (USA) policy, in which nuclear weapons and George Whitesides (USA) were regarded as weapons of last resort, to one in which it may use Introduction and Working Non-Weaponisation of Space held in nuclear weapons for preemptive Group Focus Castellón de la Plana, Spain in May purposes, the nuclear non-prolifera- The Working Group on Weaponisa- 2003. The threat assessments, under- tion regime is currently in a tion of Space and Missile Defence lying motivations and arguments profound crisis. was composed of 22 members from concerning missile defence (MD) and • Achieving full implementation of 11 countries (including 6 members the potential weaponisation of space the 13 practical steps agreed upon from the International Student Young were not discussed in detail here since at the 2000 NPT Review Confer- Pugwash). This report of the working they were well covered in Castellón, ence is essential. group is the sole responsibility of the although the workshop briefly con- • A process of improved accounting rapporteurs, and while there was a sidered two papers from participants for and control of fissile materials high level of consensus in the group, on regional debates and implications holdings should be created on a this does not necessarily represent of missile defense, which focused on worldwide basis, while negotiations consensus on all points. North-East Asia and Britain respec- should be commenced on a fissile The majority of the discussion tively. materials production ban and was focused on continuing efforts on reduction plan, and the role and Missile Defence the prohibition of space weapons as capacity of the IAEA herein must instigated during the 52nd Pugwash In general, it was agreed that devel- be strengthened. Conferences in La Jolla and the First opments in missile defenses could • The development of low-yield Annual workshop on Preserving the have major effects on international

12 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference and regional security and that many and non-proliferation. One main rec- lective progress, or lack of progress, components in the currently ommendation was for Pugwash to towards space security. The proposed multi-tiered, layered system initiate regional discussions on the Canadian Space Security Index is are technologically far from proven. impact of missile defense for specific envisaged to measure twelve indica- Firstly, we discussed that the regions. tors within three themes of space effects on regional security must be While recognising that a growing security; space environment (e.g. rigorously analysed by each individ- number of states, including NATO, space debris, allocation of orbital ual country invited to join. It was were being drawn into discussions on slots), the intentions of space security argued that the development of mis- BMD collaboration, it was noted that actors (e.g. space military doctrine) sile defense could create a new there was a need for more informa- and capabilities of space security regional missile arms race in the tion to inform public debate on the actors (e.g. launch capabilities, ASAT, Korean Peninsula, Japan, China, and issue, and that the costs appear to be space weapon capabilities). Taiwan region. The practical applica- out of proportion with the threats tion of missile defense was debated in from missiles and the capabilities of Space Security Strategy the context of international stability MD systems to aid national security. A considerable amount to time was and world order, and concerns were spent on widening discussion of the raised that with the current direction Space Security strategy initiated in the Castellón under the leadership by the United Following on from the more general workshop, and identifying specific States, ballistic missile defences discussions in Castellón, the work- actions for moving forward (see also (BMD) could be detrimental to over- shop chose to focus specifically on the key papers from the workshop on all security. short and medium term initiatives the Pugwash website). In this regard, A useful paper on the revolution currently being undertaken, and con- it was felt that Pugwash could play in military affairs (RMA) led to con- sideration of roles for Pugwash and an important role in increasing the sideration of the relationship between its members. The discussions devel- knowledge base and the public and RMA, increased reliance on space oped a working objective, as follows: political salience of space security. assets in a military context, and the Pugwash should seek to facilitate The strategy for preserving the non- ideological commitment of the Bush incremental steps leading to a com- weaponization of space is to start administration to space control and prehensive space security architecture with three themes, which need to the development of missile defense to ensure the peaceful uses of space. interact in parallel: continue to build systems. An important linkage Initiating this discussion, we heard the knowledge-base and increase between the missile defense debate from the Canadian Department of salience; stopping financial resources and the weaponisation of space is the Foreign Affairs and International via the US Congress toward the 2008 intended US deployment of a testbed Trade (DFAIT), which has been space weapons testbed; and working for space-based interceptors in 2008. working with international experts to on incremental confidence building This is seen as the nearest term threat develop a knowledge base to facili- and regulation steps, while laying the to the status quo of no weapons in tate constructive dialogue on the groundwork for comprehensive inter- space. It was noted that while both issue of the weaponization of space. national agreements within the space the issues of missile defense and space This dialogue has evolved to be in the security architecture. The following weapons are exceedingly important, context of ‘space security,’ and is outlines the three main themes in each needs to be addressed in differ- defined to be the ‘equitable, sustain- greater detail: ent ways. In considering the regional able, and secure use of and access to 1. Increase the knowledge base and international merit and space and freedom from space-based disadvantages of missile defense, threats’. There is development of a • Space Security Index (see above) attention must be given to alternative Space Security Index aimed to be a – Coordinate a network of experts mechanisms and arrangements for research-based trend analysis that on space, especially from the sci- addressing missile threats, controls, provides a net assessment of the col- entific community, in order to

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Members of Working Group 2.

facilitate the Space Security Index • Further Research and Rigorous 3. Laying the groundwork for a (SSI) and fulfill specified research Analysis comprehensive space security and analysis needs –Feasibility of threats to space- approach – Produce publication on space based assets from ASATs launched • Discussions with US Military, security to collate the knowledge by non-traditional space powers Congress and the White House base gathered in the SSI. –Feasibility of a ‘Space Pearl •Increase the visibility of existing as Harbor’ scenario • Increase Salience well as new research and reports –Networking: reaching out to pub- –Space Security Index • Research into verification for lic, space scientists and space -The hazard posed by Space potential agreements users Debris –Reach out to space scientists who -Access to space and equity • High-profile spokespeople for pub- lic attention are under represented in Pugwash –Costs and Benefits of space –Encourage development of a weapons • International space security summit Space Security Bulletin to inform –The impact of space weapons on • Consider the pros and cons of space community on recent news the commercial space sector advocating a moratorium on no –Co-convene a conference with first testing, deployment or use of 2. Political Initiatives towards Pugwash and Committee on space weapons Space Research (COSPAR) poten- prohibition of space weapons •A timeline for political/legal initia- tially on Space Debris • Major goal is to make sure that tives –Reach out to commercial actors there is no US test-bed deployed by and industries using space assets 2008 –On-going work on CBMs (debris management, compliance issues, and increase their awareness of –Engage the US Congress in dia- etc.) the effects of the weaponization of logue to cut spending from space space weapons development prior to a –Track II initiatives –Reach out to military community critical debate –Increase number of parties to the and space scientists to encourage –To convene a roundtable or work- Outer Space Treaty (OST) dialogue amongst space actors shop to improve the understand- towards universalisation and users ing of the issue amongst –UNGA resolution to multilater- –Increase public outreach through politicians. alise agreement on non-interfer- space NGOs ence with space assets, building on the provisions in the CFE and other treaties

14 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

–Negotiations on banning ASAT, 2. European Union • Publish in high-level journal weapons in and from space and • Input to the development of EU • Use that as a connection to meet international rules of the road reg- White Paper on space policy more military contacts ulations, either as a protocol to • Increase knowledge among senior 4. Identify space scientists / and poli- the OST or as separate legal EU people cymakers for Space Security Index instruments. 3. Cost-benefit analysis in collabora- expert base tion with military actors Recommended Priorities In order to move forward on the detailed issues mentioned above, the Report on Working Group 3 working group identified potential International Cooperation and Human Security organizations for each action, some of which already have work under- Co-convenors: Gabi Baramki (Palestine) and Gerard Toulouse (France) way on space security-related issues, Rapporteur: H. Peter Langille (Canada) and some which Pugwash members could invite to get them involved in A recurring theme throughout this We have witnessed formative the space security movement. Below workshop was the critical importance events over the past two years. It is a list of the suggested short-term of the United Nations. It is widely appears we should have heeded an priorities for Pugwash and Interna- viewed as the one international insti- earlier promise of a ‘new world tional Student Young Pugwash to tution committed to encouraging order’. This one is clearly more focus their continued efforts on the global cooperation and the advance- divided, increasingly militarized and, space security movement. ment of human security. As such, arguably, more risky. Perspectives Pugwash priorities there was considerable support for differ over whether these changes are strengthening the UN. Given the permanent or temporal, but there is a 1. Reach out to military community Organization’s new responsibilities general sense that we are now and space science community to and assigned tasks, many noted the approaching a crossroads. Our cur- encourage dialogue on space secu- need for additional resources and rent trajectory should not provide rity including, where possible, par- funding. But, there was also support comfort. It appears that we have less ticipation in the development of for encouraging member states to ful- political control, less capacity to the Space Security Index fill their obligations under the UN brake and slow our speed, less capac- 2. Coordinate further research and Charter. It is noteworthy that these ity to determine a safe course. Aside work on space debris as part of commitments do not diminish over from immediate risks, we are also raising awareness of the need for time or with non-compliance. They beginning to understand the cumula- legally instituted rules of the road remain obligations of membership. tive effect of human behavior, with 3. Research into potential verification Human security proved to be a evidence, albeit preliminary, inferring measures to increase the credibility timely, goal-oriented, organizing that we have only one or two genera- of political and legal initiatives. principle; one that facilitated discus- tions in which to reinvent ourselves. Student/Young Pugwash priorities sion of diverse, contemporary chal- Working Group 3 focused on lenges. Our workshop reflected ‘International Cooperation and 1. Push universal ratification of numerous priorities evident in the Human Security’, under the follow- Outer Space Treaty official human security agenda. We ing headings: • Create a Ratification kit also discussed further cooperation to • Work with the Space Generation • The role of international ensure freedom from fear of violence, Advisory Council and possibly institutions in the prevention of the direct violence of war, the struc- the United Nations Office of armed conflict, protection of civil- tural violence of exploitation and the Outer Space Affairs ians and humanitarian assistance; cultural violence of discrimination.

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• Multilateral actions and unilateral portive member states should recog- There is also an urgent need for a initiatives, and; nize that the essential criteria will be UN Emergency Service—a dedicated, • Post-conflict reconstruction, gover- legitimacy, credibility and universal- multidimensional ‘UN 911’, that can nance and assistance to democrati- ity. Civil society will increasingly address human needs, including pro- zation. expect more than multilateral ‘coali- tection, security, health and hope. tions of the willing’. This may imply This service should be composed of Specific Recommendations not only UN authorization, but also volunteer military, police and civilian The UN’s capacity to monitor, to pro- UN management. At present, this is a volunteers that are recruited globally, vide early warning and oversight, as tall task, but not mission impossible. selected for high standards of profes- well as to act in prevention is now The UN’s capacity to prevent sionalism and commitment, and then beginning to benefit from an ‘emerg- armed conflict, to protect civilians directly employed by the UN. It is ing global watch’. Already, we can and to conduct effective peace opera- time for an in-depth, independent, discern the framework for coordina- tions also depends on the extent to transnational study to identify the tion of a global monitoring system in which it can organize reliable and general and specific requirements for individuals, NGOs, UN offices and rapid responses to diverse emergen- starting and operating such a service. missions worldwide. There remains a cies. Regrettably, rather than rapid Contrary to the notion that gov- need for multiple, informal and secret deployment, routine delays of 4-to-6 ernments are constrained by fiscal sources of information, as well as months became the norm in the late austerity rendering new initiatives rapidly deployable, fact- finding 1990s. Modest progress is evident unfeasible, we heard that the ‘inter- teams. Despite the controversial with the recent expansion of the national community’ could afford nature of ‘intelligence’ within the UN Department of Peacekeeping Opera- more effective structures and reforms system, the Organization and the tions, the development of ‘on-call in many of the areas noted. Govern- member states should address the lists’ for mission headquarters, the mental priorities determine the allo- prevailing gap in information gather- expansion of the UN Standby cation of funding. To cite one exam- ing, intelligence and analysis. The Arrangements System, particularly ple, with wider cooperation, the alternative is to be unduly reliant on the multinational Standby High proposed Tobin tax of 0.1% on inter- the current monopoly held by the Readiness Brigade (SHIRBRIG). national financial transactions would most powerful. There is a risk that Combined, these now provide a more have yielded $97 billion in 1997. we will continue to be misled. effective foundation for peacekeep- Such a source of funding for the UN The report of the International ing. As they remain reliant on prompt system would make it less dependent Commission on Intervention and national decision-making and access on governmental contributions. State Sovereignty, The Responsibility to well-trained, well-equipped With respect to questions of dis- to Protect, has met with unantici- national personnel, there is little armament and arms control, it is not pated resistance. Clearly, it will assurance of rapid deployment. easy to commence or conclude on a require ongoing efforts to attract sup- If the UN is to prevent armed promising note. However, it is note- port for a new norm and multilateral conflict and to protect civilians, there worthy that the International Com- action, particularly when it entails will be a need for further, more ambi- mittee of the Red Cross recognizes the use of force to protect civilians tious efforts and new mechanisms. significant reductions in use of land threatened by genocide and mass eth- An additional SHIRBRIG would mines globally. The International nic cleansing. Unilateral campaigns help, as would additional Campaign to Ban Landmines attests cannot be convincingly rationalized participants and a larger brigade to the complete elimination of the under such pretenses. Yet legitimate pool. In this respect, it might help to international trade in landmines, as questions are being raised about encourage complementary national well as far fewer victims of these ‘how’ to protect and with ‘what’, defence reforms, particularly the ear- weapons. This progress arises despite establishing the need to identify and marking of battalions specifically for the fact that better de-mining tech- elaborate upon the alternatives. Sup- UN operations. nology has been frequently promised,

16 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference but seldom provided. To ensure this within a single foreign policy? There was also support for ‘out- process concludes on a promising Our working group benefited reach’ to attract additional scientific note, Pugwash and other supportive from approximately forty-three par- expertise, prominent members, par- parties may need to encourage gov- ticipants from twenty-four countries. ticularly from countries that are cur- ernments to renew their funding. Within, there was widespread sup- rently under-represented and Many believe those planting mines port for Pugwash’s emphasis on acknowledged leaders in science, should, at least, be held responsible analysis and advocacy. Yet we also such as Nobel laureates in the natural for their removal. The big task is recognize the need for critical reflec- sciences. in figuring out how to enforce tion and adaptation of this organiza- It was proposed that Pugwash compliance. tion. It was agreed that one challenge participate in both the world Small arms also figure ahead is to mainstream gender and economic and social forums. Many prominently on the human security youth analysis, utilizing the wider expressed hope that others would not agenda, primarily because of their perspective and strengths of each. As only enjoy, but also learn consider- large impact, low cost and availabil- noted (and agreed), “men desperately ably from a repeat performance of ity. It is easy to understand why they need more creative ideas for what has already been labeled, ‘the are ‘the weapon of choice’ in the overcoming a war system”. brilliant Joe show’. majority of contemporary armed con- Another challenge is to encourage Over the past decade, we gradu- flicts. We heard compelling testimony a much-needed culture of peace, ally recognized the need for about the reciprocal feedback loop which will necessitate further support integrated approaches across the full between insecurity, poverty, violence for peace research and peace educa- spectrum of peace operations. Slowly, and acquisition of additional small tion. We know a few of the implica- we drew some connections and arms. We also support the need for tions when there is neither tolerance learned that seemingly different better incentives to turn in weapons, nor assistance for independent analy- aspects of the human security agenda including individual, national and sis, constructive criticism and the were actually interrelated. Although multinational buy-back programs. development of policy options. This political and corporate leaders will Regrettably, we are experiencing is now an evident trend; arguably one occasionally dismiss any connection, re-armament today on an unprece- sustained by organized fear and a cul- elementary students know that dented scale in every region of the ture of violence. Clearly, the atten- human security is related to environ- world. It is past time that the UN dant risks merit further research, mental security. Given the disappear- called the world to account to begin education and advocacy to counter ance of the tropical rainforest, is it reversing this process. It is proposed, this trend. for us, or for others to ask the gov- that we call for the UN General UNESCO was mentioned favor- ernment of Brazil what they might Assembly to prepare for, and conduct ably for a program in peace educa- need to stop the cutting? a Fourth Special Session on tion that might be renewed. This UN Hopefully, we also learned the Disarmament. department shares Pugwash’s long- UN cannot be expected to carry addi- Together, we devoted consider- standing commitment to education, tional responsibilities without addi- able time to discussing human secu- science, culture and ethics, making it tional support and resources. An rity, the rapid militarization of much a natural partner. We also heard a effort could be made to engage of the world and the consequences compelling recommendation for the regional organizations under the UN for human welfare. Could Pugwash UN to prepare an annual report on umbrella (e.g. OAS, AU and OSCE), or a group of individual members state of world peace and security. encouraging them to take on a more initiate a study on the interface of To effect promising change, a active role in support of the UN Secu- human security and military security number of participants suggested the rity Council. Success, and quite possi- to determine whether and to what need for constituency-building with bly survival, will depend upon the extent the concepts are compatible or like-minded groups, preferably on an extent to which civil society develops not, and whether both can exist issue-specific basis. a constituency of support for the UN

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 17 53rd Pugwash Conference through cooperative partnerships abroad, even respected democracies 2. “Terrorism is the deliberate target- with supportive member states, may behave like vicious gang mem- ing of civilians with a view to kill NGOs, institutes and individuals. bers. One task that merits further and to intimidate”. There will be a need for reliable thought and a final question is how What is interesting about the lat- information, wider efforts to educate we can counterbalance and offset ter definition is that it makes no dis- at the political level and smart media some of that pressure. Well- tinction between terrorist acts com- campaigns. conceived, common approaches mitted by states from those Good governance should not be would appear to offer better committed by non-state actors. taken for granted, here or elsewhere. prospects than unilateral reactions. The need for a precise definition When under intense pressure from of terrorism does not only stem from the fact that there are more than 200 definitions of terrorism but that vari- Report on Working Group 4 ous government have opportunisti- Terrorism cally sought to label legitimate politi- Co-Convenors: Francesco Calogero (Italy) cal opponents in an effort to narrow and Pervez Hoodbhoy (Pakistan) the political space. Rapporteur: Hussein Solomon (South Africa) The need for greater precision in our terminology also extends to the term “weapons of mass destruction” Abstract ment of civil liberties. Responding to or WMD. This stems from the fact terrorism should not only be the pre- Terrorism is not a new phenomenon, that the term places in the same cate- serve of governments and inter-gov- but what is new today is its scope gory—chemical, biological, radiologi- ernmental bodies. Indeed members of and magnitude. Whilst acknowledg- cal and nuclear weapons. This is inap- civil society have a social responsibil- ing that terrorism does not exist in a propriate and misleading bearing in ity to join in this global scourge. vacuum; the simplistic notion that mind that nuclear weapons are many poverty leads to terrorism must be orders of magnitude more powerful, Introduction rejected. At best poverty is a facilitat- and hence more damaging than the ing condition not a necessary one. Terrorism is not a new phenomenon other three and its characteristics and There can be no justification for the but what is new today is the scope case of manufacture are completely taking of innocent life! Today’s ter- and magnitude of this global scourge. different. As the choice of words we rorists do not only have traditional This report is divided into four sec- use shape responses, it is imperative small arms and explosives in their tions. In the first section we look at that we are as precise as possible with arsenals but the potential to access definitions. In the second, the origins the words we so loosely use. nuclear, chemical and biological of terrorism are explored. Third, the weapons. In responding to terrorism, scope and magnitude of terrorism is On the Origins of Terrorism the centrality of the United Nations analyzed and finally we turn to Terrorism stems at individual and must be stressed as must the legal as responses to terrorism. group levels. At the individual level, opposed to military approaches. This the Oklahoma bombing committed would entail the strengthening of On Definitions by Timothy McVeigh springs to international legal instruments such Two of the most interesting defini- mind. Given the random nature of as the International Criminal Court tions to emerge on terrorism are the such acts they are far more difficult as well as the Chemical and Biologi- following: to control. At the level of groups; one cal Weapons Conventions. In 1. “Terrorists are people who think has leaders of racial, ethnic, religious responding to terrorism a fine line their ideas are more important or national groups mobilizing follow- should be maintained between the than other peoples’ lives”; and ers to commit terrorist acts on the need for security and the encroach-

18 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference basis of a commonly perceived griev- siderations. Neither were Washing- amongst policy-makers. ance or wrong. ton’s policy-makers alone in this Terrorists are opportunistic and Whilst acknowledging that terror- folly. The Indonesian government seek to achieve their objectives by ism does not exist in a vacuum, the also encouraged Islamic radicalism as any and all means available. In this simplistic notion that poverty leads a bulwark against communism and in respect, the five million illegal to terrorism must be rejected. Under Algeria militant Islam was mobilized firearms circulating among the MER- no circumstances can a Mohamed in the national independence struggle COSUR states of South America is a Ata, the leader of the 9/11 hijackers against the French. Having given cause for concern as is the highly or Osama bin Laden, leader of the birth to Frankenstein monsters, both enriched uranium stockpiles in the Al-Qaeda network be regarded as countries now find they cannot con- former Soviet Union, which is poor. At best, poverty can be a facili- trol these forces as the 100,000 dead enough to produce 20,000 nuclear tating condition, not a necessary one. Algerians will testify to in the vicious devices. If such HEU falls into the In similar vein, the pro-Israeli policies battle between Algiers and Islamic hands of terrorists via say organized pursued by the US as well as its sup- militants. crime syndicates, it would be port to autocratic Arab regimes was Opportunity, however, does not relatively easy to gather the rest of similarly jettisoned. In the final only arise from the changing geo- the components and build a crude instance, there can be no justification strategic nature of world politics but non-transportable nuclear device in for the taking of innocent life! also from new weapons and commu- the city to be destroyed. Possibilities But, the origins of this current nication technology. The fact that also exist of chemical weapon tech- wave of terrorism are also intimately terrorists have in their possession nology passing into the hands of ter- related to opportunity. Indeed, Al- iridium satellite phones eases com- rorists since most reasonably devel- Qaeda owes its emergence to the munication as does the growing oped states possess crude chemical decision by the US government to interconnectedness of the world weapon technology. The sarin gas organize a Great Jihad against Soviet economy where millions of dollars attack in a Tokyo subway by the forces in Afghanistan in 1979. The can be transferred by the press of a apocalyptic sect, Aum Shinrikyo, is a CIA actively recruited radical Mus- button. case in point. lims from Algeria, Sudan, Saudi Ara- The growing relationship between One should also not under-esti- bia, Egypt and further afield to fight terrorist networks and organized mate the power of biological the holy cause as mujahedeen. Saudi crime syndicates is also cause for weapons. Ten milligrams (or one fifti- Arabian money and support from concern. eth the weight of a paper clip) of bot- Pakistani intelligence services also ulinal toxin could in principle kill The Scope and Magnitude of came to support US objectives in 25,000 people. Terrorism Today Afghanistan. Washington actively The possibility that terrorist could supported the development of a mili- Terrorism today takes the form of target a nuclear power plant for tant Islam and provided advanced global networks functioning at local, attack is also not beyond the bounds military training to such mujahedeen national, regional and international of possibility. As such the probabili- as Osama bin Laden. By 1988, the levels. Responses therefore have to ties for terrorist attacks to occur USSR withdrew but the terror camps occur at all these levels if one wants should form an integral part of stud- remained until 2001. By that time, to effectively deal with this scourge. ies that investigate the potential 70,000 terror graduates from fifty It is quite interesting that the con- future of nuclear energy production. countries emerged from its camps tinent which is most plagued by ter- In particular, its vulnerability to ter- and formed the basis of today’s Al- rorism—Latin America—does not rorist attack should be part of pro- Qaeda network. feature on the `war on terrorism’. grams intended to design innovative This is clearly a lesson of where Pugwash must seek to give the reactor types, in which passive safety long-term stability and security is terrorism plaguing Latin America features play an important role, and sacrificed by short-term strategic con- greater visibility in the media and options such as the construction of

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 19 53rd Pugwash Conference nuclear power plants underground age of one American soldier a day Responses would also need to should perhaps be revisited. The con- since the fall of the tyrannical regime reduce the opportunities available to struction of rod-or cage-like struc- of Saddam Hussein also shows up the terrorists. In the light of this, the tures around nuclear facilities to pro- limitations of a military-led campaign amount of fissile materials from tect against in-flying airplanes as well on terrorism. Indeed, the invasion weapons and other sources that are as the installation of short-range air- and occupation of foreign territory in held in poorly guarded sites all over defence systems should also be con- dealing with the threat posed by a the former Soviet Union and the sidered. global terror network is itself a ques- related possibility of theft remains a tionable military strategy. As the grave threat to world security. Under Responding to Terrorism most recent attacks in Riyadh and these circumstances, should we con- Earlier mention was made of how Casablanca demonstrate Al-Qaeda sider a revitalized Nunn-Luger initia- words contribute to mind-sets that retains its military capabilities and tive to buy these materials? shape policies. This point needs repe- global reach. Responding to terrorism however tition in our attempt to understand Is there an alternative? We believe is not only the preserve of responses to terrorism. Why a `war’ that there is. Stressing a ‘crimes governments and inter-governmental on terror? This suggests the primacy against humanity’ approach is a pos- bodies; civil society also has a duty to of the military approach to dealing sible alternative. This would stress play a key role. Here the important with terrorists. This military-led strengthening influential legal instru- work of organizations like the approach has also seen military inva- ments like the International Criminal Bioweapons Prevention Project sions of Afghanistan and Iraq where Court as well as the structures of the which aims to strengthen the norms the chief protagonists, Mullah Omar UN system. Such an approach would against using disease as a weapon and Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan not mean the abandonment of the needs to be supported. and Saddam Hussein and sons in military approach but rather that the Over the past three decades we Iraq, have disappeared. This military- military exists to enforce legal deci- have been experiencing a revolution led approach has also seen large sions. in biotechnology that are having numbers of Taliban and Baathists But should we stress this legal great impacts on domains as diverse leaving their positions in the face of approach then we need to take stock as medicine and food security. How- the US military juggernaut and fading of certain shortcomings in the legal ever, the techniques used to improve into the local population. This mili- anti-terror regime. For instance, both health or to protect people from the tary approach has also seen the Chemical Weapons Convention worst consequences of biological organized attacks by these elements and Biological Weapons Convention warfare can also be applied to create against government authorities and is designed to counter atrocities com- a new generation of biological US soldiers in these countries. In mitted by states and does not really weapons. Because of the dual-use Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai is make provision for terrorism com- aspect of biotechnologies, the prohi- referred to as the “Mayor of Kabul” mitted by non-state actors. This bition of any type of biological on the basis that his writ does not would need to be rectified. Given the research is not feasible. Instead, the extend beyond the capital. Others multidimensional nature of the ter- close monitoring of developments in believe even this is charitable given rorist threat posed, strengthening the technology can serve as an early the assassination of members of his legal anti-terror regime means not warning of activities that could prove own cabinet and attempts on his life only strengthening it at international dangerous. Also it is imperative to within the city limits of Afghanistan! level but also at regional level such as educate students on relevant weapon Moreover, the resumption of heroin the Organization of American States control regimes in carrying out production in Afghanistan and their (OAS), the Association of South-East research. export to Western Europe and the US Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Euro- The desire to prevent sensitive should also be viewed as a source of pean Union (EU) and the African information from getting into the concern. In Iraq, the killing on aver- Union (AU). wrong hands is understandable and

20 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

wise. However there are some who Report on Working Group 5 wish to take this further with mea- sures, which may encroach on civil New Technology for Human Development liberties. In January 2003 in the US, and Security for instance, a group of journal edi- Co-convenors: Marie Muller (South Africa) and tors and authors discussed strategies Suzuki Tatsujiro (Japan) to enhance security. One of these Rapporteur: Tom Børsen Hansen (Denmark) strategies read as follows: “We recog- nize that on occasions an editor may conclude that the potential harm of Summary of discussions and potential nature of these publication outweighs the potential Forgotten or suppressed issues. The technologies. The adequateness of the societal benefits. Under such circum- topic of the discussions in working proposed moratorium was stances, the paper should be modi- group 5 was New Technologies for questioned. fied, or not published”. Meanwhile, Human Development and Security. The grassroots scientist. Three pre- the editorial comment of Physics and In the first session it was suggested sented papers discussed the links Society of January 2003 states, “… that the topic of the working group between science, technology and since good science, often underlines be changed to Risks and Threats of grassroots issues. A clear distinction national advantages conducive to New Technologies: Identifying Cru- between science and technology was security, it is occasionally vital to live cial Forgotten and Suppressed Issues. emphasised. Science differs from with effective secrecy in order to The argument behind this suggestion technology with regard to the norms enhance security”. was that the working group title left guiding its practitioners. Also the dri- In this charged atmosphere there out a crucial issue: that technologies ving forces behind science and tech- is also talk of boycott of scientific can be a source of new problems. nology are different. Science is colleagues and research laboratories curiosity driven. Special—commer- being closed to foreign students. Downside impact of nanotech- cial or military—interests are usually Under these circumstances, we must nology. The commissioned paper on the impulse to technological produc- ask who determines which publica- nanotechnology recommended that tion. It was believed that grassroots tion may be published or not or Pugwash consider endorsing the call problems currently seem forgotten by which parts to excise before publica- of other groups and organisations for mainstream science and technology. tion? Who determines which scien- a moratorium on certain types of The idea of the grassroots scientist tific colleagues do we interact with research into molecular and atomic emerged. This concept refers to a per- and what is the criteria on which engineering, specifically research into son who uses the scientific approach these judgments are to be made? This self-replicating and self-assembling to grassroots issues. It was mentioned is something that needs the direct “nanomachines,” to allow for ade- that scientists should be better intervention of the scientific commu- quate reflection and debate. The call trained in analysing complex systems nity such as that contained in for such a moratorium was and thinking in new ways. Pugwash. motivated by a range of concerns about the possible social, health and GMOs and food security. A paper environmental impacts of such tech- presented on the effects of genetically nology, most importantly, in terms of modified organisms (GMOs) on food Pugwash tradition, the potential security of developing countries emergence of a new category of stated that more attention should be weapons of mass destruction. paid to international attempts to reg- The paper gave rise to a vigorous ulate and mitigate the risks of GMO- discussion. Some participants con- technologies following the example tested the description of the present of the Cartagena protocol on

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 21 53rd Pugwash Conference biosafety and the International top-10 world health risks, malnutri- growth of social movements and Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources tion and obesity, and aimed at pro- hence promotion of their aims (e.g. for Food and Agriculture viding some insight into and under- public awareness of the nuclear (ITPGRFA). It was argued that the standing of these pathologies. The threat). The life-saving roles of mod- role of profit oriented research and paper concluded that health is not an ern telecommunications, for example development on techno-scientific isolated problem, but one of environ- in surgery, were described. On the ‘progress’ and its ability to address mental, societal and global concern; downside of ICTs the group was human security issues be addressed. humans need healthy environments alerted by the potential risks that in which to live in order to be healthy accidental disclosure or surveillance AIDS as a security issue. A presented themselves. Robbing communities pose to human security and privacy, paper advanced the argument that and nations of their greatest wealth in particular as a consequence of the the already known characteristics of — the health of their people—drains war against terrorism. This was in the present (southern African) and the human and institutional capaci- turn countered by noting the reassur- impending waves of HIV/AIDS pan- ties that fuel sustainable ance which comes from a capacity to demic indicated novel and grave development. track individuals in circumstances of threats to global security. Noting the criminality. unsatisfactory record to date, it Myths of ICTs. Two papers on infor- explained how this situation had mation and communication Recommendations to Pugwash come about and suggested that there technologies (ICTs) were presented An important theme underlying the was a precise and urgent task of defi- and discussed. Myths related to ICTs paper-discussions was recommenda- nition and analysis that was prerequi- were pointed out, e.g. that the use of tions for future Pugwash activities site to more successful policy to com- mobile phones per se offer the poor related to new technologies. Many bat the pandemic. Security in developing countries crucial infor- potential areas of concern for Pug- consequences for the “next waves” mation that will help them or that wash emanate from the application of HIV/AIDS countries were information transmitted through the of new technologies. Even though outlined, and concrete scenarios internet (e-newspapers etc.) helps us many of these issues have regarding Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, make more rational choices. implications for human development India and China given. Most immedi- Concerns were raised about the and security, Pugwash cannot take on ately, Nigeria and Ethiopia will be ‘scientific positivism’ currently sur- all of them. The group considered the hardest hit with the social and rounding ICTs inside and outside sci- criteria that could be used to select economic impact, as they have the entific communities. It was generally the issues for Pugwash to take up. It highest 2010 estimates of adult agreed that ICT does have impacts, concluded that Pugwash must be able prevalence rates: 18–26 % for of course, but that their depth as well to add value to or ‘tip the balance’ on Nigeria and 19–27 % for Ethiopia. as their nature was still not well such issues. Meeting the security cri- Both countries are key to regional analysed, and gave no grounds for terion is axiomatic in selecting issues stability, have important geo-strategic complacent assumptions such as the for action by Pugwash. Some specific implications (west African oil, for presented paper challenged. In dis- guidelines were identified: example) and the rise of HIV/AIDS cussion, some argued that the man- will strain their governments, as that ner in which the two-edged sword of • If science or technology creates a of Zimbabwe already is being ICT might cut depended less upon circumstance that poses potential strained. the technology, more upon the con- threats to global / human security text in which these technologies are then we, as scientists, have a Health and sustainable development. used. It was suggested that this is a responsibility to do something A paper dealing with the complexity common feature of all technologies. about it. of nutrition in health, disease and Of positive effect of ICT, it was • If a complex problem is emerging, sustainable development was put for- put forward that ICTs might poten- or a simple problem has to be ward. It dealt largely with two of the tially facilitate the rise and / or looked at in a complex context, and

22 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

engagement with it is not possible • A working group at the next year’s technologies, as well as account for without thinking in a new way. Pugwash conference in South Korea the epistemological and historical • If new technologies are required to on the topic “Early warning and meta-assumptions on which they deal with a problem. preventive action on emerging tech- are built. nologies” should be established. There was agreement in the • If issues are systematically forgotten Topics within such a working group that this recommendation or suppressed. group could be: the character of the fulfils criteria a), b), and d). The issue of what constitutes the early warning institutions, and the • Put on the Pugwash agenda a con- target group of Pugwash endeavours scientific analysis of examples of sideration of “a new relation was raised. There was general agree- potential threats from emerging between science and grassroots.” ment on the principle: “horses for technologies—downside This recommendation fulfils cri- courses;” a principle historically well consequences of nanotechnology, teria b), c), and d). Understanding rehearsed. Pugwash’s audience is, for biomedical technology etc., and of and solutions to grassroots prob- some causes, decision-makers; for security and privacy issues related lems were considered forgotten other causes the general public is the to ICTs (Echelon etc.). The analysis issues within mainstream science target group. should include contextual aspects and technology. Discussions of this Based on a careful consideration (commercial, religious, and ideolog- topic need to be initiated. of the various issues raised in the ical etc.) surrounding emerging papers presented, followed by the application of the guidelines mentioned above, the group made Report on Working Group 6 three recommendations: Mitigation of Global Environmental Change • A Pugwash focussed study group Co-Conveners: Omar Masera (Canada) and Kit Hill (UK) entitled “Threats without enemies: Rapporteur: David Sandomierski (Canada) security implications of 21st cen- tury health problems” should be The theme of this conference is quadrupling almost unavaoidable established. Pugwash will set up an “Advancing Human Security: The thereafter. That world would be a expert forum where the visibility Role of Technology and Politics.” “scorched earth:” unbearably high and potential impacts of the The second part of this title surface air temperatures, severe HIV/AIDS pandemic upon global recognizes that we need integrated drought conditions, dramatic change security will be analysed by experts approaches to ensure our survival. in ocean levels, and irretrievable loss from different disciplines, who will Scientific and social inventiveness of biodiversity. then formulate policy support together will help us address our Global Climate Change is primar- advice for decision-makers. The complex problems. Similarly, ily a human-induced phenomenon. In model in mind is that of the “Human Security” is a fertile the past fifty years, climate models successful series of focussed meet- concept. We must chose to define which combine natural processes ings on intervention and “security” broadly. Our security— with human intervention correlate sovereignty. our safety—is inextricably tied up in extremely well with temperature This recommendation fulfils cri- the health of the Earth. It is time to records. teria b), c) and d). Health issues are expand our intellectual horizons to Levels of consumption, the car- very complex, and connected to include the urgent and real threat of bon intensity of energy sources and environmental, societal and global environmental degradation. processes such as deforestation and concerns. The fact that no one else Under continuation of recent land degradation all determine

is doing something similar supports trends, we can expect, by 2100, a atmospheric CO2 levels. Reforesta-

setting up the proposed Pugwash tripling of pre-industrial levels of tion can reduce CO2 and has local focussed study group. atmospheric carbon dioxide, with a benefits but cannot be relied upon

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 23 53rd Pugwash Conference alone to abate global climate change. dependent upon access to scientific rather be seen as part of a bigger pic- Stabilization of global population data, can drive a wedge deeper ture. will help. For example, in countries between rich and poor. A “sustainability” paradigm where universal free education has Many areas of the world are should inform responses to the global been extended, especially to women, already facing dwindling water environmental threat. A shift towards fertility rates are lower. One possible resources. Given the high prevalence this paradigm must be achieved solution is to reduce population of transboundary water systems, through the “ultimate” drivers of growth rates through education. nations must cooperate through society: our values and needs, our However, it is the high energy water sharing and joint management knowledge and understanding, our consumption on behalf of the devel- in order to avert water-based power structures and our culture. oped world which is most urgent. conflicts. Concurrently, nations must The participation of a number of dif- Carbon-based fuels contain hidden balance their needs for capital invest- ferent actors, termed “Governance,” subsidies that artificially lower their ment with an affirmation that water can accomplish this goal better than cost, placing a barrier to renewable is a universal human right. Govern- the more limited conception of gov- energy sources. Wind and solar ments must distinguish between dif- ernment. Support for governance ini- energy are too intermittent to provide ferent uses of water so that water for tiatives can be bolstered by research adequate base loads of electricity. For basic survival purposes is not com- into, and education about, the ulti- many countries, the main alternative moditized. mate drivers of society. to coal, whose carbon emissions are On the one hand, large scale pro- Is sustainability an appropriate extremely high, remains nuclear jects such as dams and industrial irri- conception for Pugwash to adopt? power. In that sense, countries may gation can provide sophisticated We are familiar with the Russell-Ein- need to consider keeping the nuclear technological solutions to water stein manifesto of 1955. As one par- option open providing issues such as problems. On the other hand, water ticipant in our group suggests, how- nuclear proliferation, vulnerability to management at the individual level— ever, it may be appropriate to terrorist attacks and the safe disposal such as collecting rainwater and reformulate the manifesto to address of nuclear waste are solved. The using backyard filtration systems— the pressing needs of today: widespread move to renewable can vastly increase water yields. The We are speaking as an integral energy sources, while desirable, imposition of inappropriate water part of planet Earth, whose requires a thorough economical and technologies can undermine social continued provision of a hos- technological assessment. cohesion. Managers of local water pitable environment for Despite these difficulties, it is resources should weigh the high legit- humanity is in doubt… urgently important that mitigation imacy of small-scale, individual remember sustainable use and strategies are not sacrificed in favour efforts against the technological forget the rest… If you can- of adaptation strategies. Whereas the advantage of large-scale projects. not, there lies before you the cost of mitigation will be borne Traditional knowledge has much risk of universal death. largely by rich countries, poor coun- to offer science. For example, oral The words of TS Eliot give us tries bear the brunt of adaptation accounts by the indigenous inhabi- sober pause to reflect upon the measures. Further, climate change tants of Canada’s Arctic region can changing nature of our world: “This information risks becoming provide researchers with information is the way the world ends/ Not with a commoditized and sold to the highest about climate change for which there bang but with a whimper.” Human bidder, giving preferential access to is no numerical data. An appreciation security today is threatened by those least in need. Early knowledge of complexity and ambiguity chal- nuclear proliferation. But we have about climatic events, for example, lenges the administrative mind which more to fear than the big bang. The can enable rich farmers to exhaust tends to artificially compartmentalize whimpers contained in the warnings the supply of drought-resistant seeds. problems into narrow parts. Techno- of environmental exhaustion threaten Focus upon adaptation, which is logical fixes are no panacea but must our security just as much. Pugwash

24 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference can, and should, assist in bolstering bottom line” that urges business to tion. The mind throbs when it tries to support for sustainable development consider not only economic but also understand how quickly so many world wide. social, environmental and security lives can just vanish. The repulsion This can be achieved without factors. that such cruelty comes at the hands undermining Pugwash’s esteemed 4. Related to this, Pugwashites of humans, and the faith that we are position in the intellectual and politi- can contribute to the ongoing wise and compassionate enough to cal communities. Pugwash can lend research and reflection on alternative avert it, if only we could get our pri- support to organizations at the local, economic development, whereby orities straight, has inspired national and international levels by indices such as GDP are replaced by Pugwashites for decades. But a commissioning scientific studies more holistic measures. torched earth and a scorched earth whose findings would be accessible 5. Examine the negotiation have the same moribund result. If we to specialists and generalists alike. processes of international are to remember our humanity, we This working group urges individuals agreements. This is necessary not must remember our capacity for in Pugwash to contribute to the fol- only to increase accessibility to these change. In the face of the very real lowing initiatives: processes but also to indicate in threat of global warming and 1. Develop a workable interna- which ways diverse perspectives can resource exhaustion, Pugwashites can tional strategy to implement the thor- be incorporated. use their expertise to help society to ough findings of IPCC. The Intergov- 6. Finally, Pugwashites can advo- deal with the complex and intercon- ernmental Panel on Climate Change cate for a “Blue Revolution” that nected nature of our troubles. We are has extensive evidence and calls for water conservation, wise free to imagine the world we want, recommendations about global cli- management and equitable distribu- and in this world, human security mate change. Due to their close rela- tion of our most necessary resource. depends on environmental sustain- tionship with national governments, ability. It is time to define our goals The horrific images of Hiroshima however, they have not been given and responsibilities more broadly. and Nagasaki capture our imagina- the mandate to devise a concrete strategy. Pugwash members have the expertise to translate their findings into action, and the independence to advocate this new strategy to NETHERLANDS PUGWASH national governments. 2. Prepare readable and accessible Sharing the Planet: studies on specific environmental Population—Consumption—Species threats in local areas. Grassroots Science and Ethics for a Sustainable organizations can use this data to and Equitable World support their advocacy activities. Edited by Bob van der Zwaan and Arthur Petersen 3. Study how businesses can oper- The internationally renowned scholars contributing ate within a sustainability paradigm. to this volume aim to fill an often-existing gap: they If business have access to solid sug- assess various specific biodiversity-related features in gestions on how to decrease their detail, while attempting not to lose track of the sus- ecological impact in ways that can Eburon Academic Publishers tainability problem at large. Moreover, their purpose increase their economic efficiency, 256 pages is to formulate realistic strategies that can contribute to bringing about changes in the interna- they will be likely to implement them. February 2004 ISBN: 9059720024 tional policy arena necessary for reaching a sustain- Given the increasing role of multina- able and equitable world. The book is intended for tional corporations, this recommen- scientists, policy-makers, and interested and con- dation is particularly relevant. Pug- cerned world citizens alike. wash can advocate the “quadruple

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 25 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

REPORTS OF THE WORKING GROUP MEETINGS OF INTERNATIONAL STUDENT/YOUNG PUGWASH (ISYP)

Introduction dynamics, our evolving sense of pur- Nuclear weapons he present document reports pose, ongoing and new projects, rec- The working group considered three the discussion of over 30 stu- ommendations for the Pugwash themes with respect to this topic: Tdents and young professionals movement from the ISYP perspective, from 17 countries who participated in and a few questions to guide future The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) the ISYP working groups preceding dialogue between and within our We currently face a crisis in the non- the 53rd Pugwash Conference entitled organizations. proliferation regime: both horizon- ‘Advancing Human Security: the Role As students and young tally (India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear of Technology and Politics’. Each par- professionals we are grateful for the weapons tests, Israel’s covert nuclear ticipant presented a paper along one opportunity to share our thoughts weapons programme, North Korea’s of the following topics suggested by with the Pugwash Conferences on withdrawal from the NPT, Iran’s ura- the senior Pugwash Conference orga- Science and World Affairs. It is our nium enrichment programme) and nizers: hope that this report can contribute vertically (the US plans to develop to enriching the ideas and actions of low yield nuclear weapons that can 1. Nuclear Weapons the Pugwash Community. be used in conventional warfare— 2. Weaponization of Space and Mis- Furthermore, we would like to mini-nukes). This highlights certain sile Defense thank the note-takers for the contri- flaws in the NPT, namely: bution, in particular Moira Ann 3. International Cooperation and • Nuclear weapons states have Goodfellow and Pablo Suarez. Human Security preached to non-nuclear weapons Irna van der Molen states, but have not kept their end 4. Terrorism Joelien Pretorius of the bargain, which is ultimately 5. New Technology for Human to give up their nuclear weapons. Development and Security Report on ISYP Working This may be perceived as unjust for non-nuclear weapons states and if 6. Mitigation of Global Environmen- Groups A (1,2 and 4) threatened these states may decide tal Change: Beyond Johannesburg. Facilitator: Hugo Estrella to withdraw from the NPT as Rapporteur: Joelien Pretorius Two ISYP Working Groups were North Korea did; formed: ‘A’ (comprising themes 1,2 • An incoherent and insufficient Group A included three sub-groups, and 4) and ‘B’(comprising themes 3, response to the withdrawal of namely a sub-group on nuclear 5, and 6). The first two sections offer North Korea as well as to countries weapons (1), weaponization of space the rapporteurs’ report of working outside of the NPT (Israel, India, and missile defense (2) and on terror- groups ‘A’ and ‘B’ respectively. Sec- Pakistan). The lift of sanctions on ism (4). Because of the overlap of the tion ‘C’ offers an outline of the pre- India and Pakistan and the military themes and practical considerations, sentation made by ISYP to the Pug- aid that these countries receive may these were all discussed in one work- wash Council on July 17, 2003, send a message that acquisition of ing group. including recent changes in working

26 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

nuclear weapons has little tion that the nuclear genie is out of country’s weapons programme. It diplomatic cost; the bottle, and it is best to manage is, however, questionable whether • Non-nuclear weapons states could the problem through robust com- nuclear weapons improve the secu- acquire a nuclear fuel-cycle under mand and control systems and con- rity of one country vis-à-vis other NPT for peaceful purposes, but fidence building measures between countries, or could prevent conven- then decide to withdraw and to India and Pakistan. tional warfare through deterrence. pursue a weapons programme; The question was raised whether • Sign of national prestige: it is fair to • Proliferation to non-state actors Pugwash can entertain the pragmatic say that some governments may see (e.g. terrorists) is not included in position. It seems that some hawks their nuclear weapons as essential the NPT framework. turn into pragmatists when they to be major powers in the world At the 2000 Review Conference retire from government and use this to gain public support. the NPT was extended indefinitely. establishments and then it is often In the case of Pakistan’s nuclear Although, at the time, this was con- too late to affect a real change in gov- weapons, they may be portrayed as sidered to be positive, it may be that ernments’ programmes. the ‘Islamic bomb(s)’. This view is these flaws are so ingrained in the perpetuated by countries such as structure of the Treaty that it would Nuclear Weapons Awareness France and Britain hanging on to have been better to negotiate a new In Britain, after the end of the Cold their nuclear weapons in the treaty altogether. In the absence of War, the number of people who absence of a real threat to their this possibility, several suggestions regard nuclear weapons as an impor- security. came up to strengthen the NPT such tant issue decreased significantly. It is • A weapon of the poor. Convention- as the support of a fissile material likely that there is a similar trend in ally weak states might acquire cut-off treaty and additional proto- other countries. The lack of aware- nuclear weapons as a cheaper cols or even a treaty like the ness extends to: option than spending a lot of proposed Nuclear Weapons Conven- • The horrific consequence of the use money on conventional weapons to tion (providing for a total ban on of nuclear weapons in terms of reach comparable levels of military nuclear weapons and infrastructure human and environmental destruc- might. However, India and Pakistan supporting them) to transcend the tion; still spend money on conventional NPT. • The financial cost of nuclear forces and their nuclear weapons weapons; have not been successful in dimin- Regional hot spots: South Asia • Arguments that nuclear weapons ishing the intensity of their conflict. The perceptions in India and may not increase the actual security With regard to nuclear weapons Pakistan regarding nuclear weapons of states; awareness initiatives, the working can be categorized as: • The legal obligations of nuclear group was briefed on two projects: • Nuclear optimism: also referred to weapons states to de-nuclearize. • An interactive on-line quiz designed as nuclear hawks, people who hold Awareness-raising programmes by Oxford University Student Pug- this view actively support the should start by identifying the wash where questions are asked nuclear weapons programmes and counter-arguments to the reasons and information is given about the are present in military and govern- that governments give for having amount of nuclear weapons that ment think tanks; nuclear weapons and these are: exist, the cost of nuclear weapons • Nuclear pessimism: also referred to • Threat perception and deterrence: and so forth, and where the issue is as nuclear doves or abolitionists, the decision to acquire nuclear placed in the broader context people with this view are against weapons are often rooted in histori- (www.oxford.ac.uk; search for nuclear weapons and are present in cal animosity between countries or Student Pugwash). academia and some NGOs; and a strategic domino effect, where • An exhibition of photographs from • Nuclear pragmatism: people who one country acquires nuclear the Hiroshima Peace Memorial have this view take the realist posi- weapons in response to another Museum by physicians for global

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 27 53rd Pugwash Conference

survival by a student group in Hali- Although the 2004/5 deployment • In the aftermath of September 11th, fax, which shows the aftermath of plan does not include space anti-terrorist legislation in Canada the use of nuclear bombs. weapons, there are plans for was rapidly adopted without Other suggestions were: developing a test bed in space; sufficient consultation. • Nuclear hawks in the political and • The US’ withdrawal from the • The implications of this for civil military realm should be identified Antiballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) liberties are now being realized and and the public should be made in order to pursue missile defense, this has been cause for public aware of their positions; left a legal loophole to test debate. • Awareness programmes should also weapons that could be put in space • One of the lessons learned from be initiated in non-nuclear weapons (the Outer Space Treaty only the process is to explore the states to inform their citizens about prohibits weapons of mass insertion of a ‘sunset clause’ in the perils of nuclear weapons as a destruction in outer space and all rushed legislation to ensure a measure to prevent proliferation to other weapons on celestial bodies). review mechanism and, more in their countries. • It should be noted that space is general, to promote civil society already militarised and that the US interest in parliamentary / Missile defense and the is increasingly reliant on space for congressional processes when weaponization of space military operations. It is thus often important legislation is passed. Missile defense argued that weapons in space are • The idea that the International • The Bush Administration has set a strategically justified for three Criminal Court should prosecute date for deployment in 2004/5 for reasons: to protect military assets terrorists as opposed to national a ballistic missile defense system, and superiority, to deny it to other governments was also discussed. which will not only consist of countries, and to fight from space. This might establish an homeland defense against inter- • On close inspection: if cost-benefit international norm of condemning continental missiles, but also analyses are performed, it shows terrorism and promote include US ‘friends and allies’; that military advantage is only international law at the same time. • This will have implications for the short-term • All of this should be seen in the strategic stability in North-East • Any security advantage would be context of human security. Asia. Countries such as China and degraded once other states also International economic injustice, North Korea might increase the deploy state weapons (In other international financial institutions range and amount of missiles in words, the US might be worse off and foreign policy behaviour of their arsenals to maintain strategic than they were before initial strong states in developing deterrence. Thus missile defense deployment). countries perpetuate poverty, could lead to horizontal inequality and a break-down of proliferation in the region. Terrorism structures. These circumstances can be a breeding ground for • An alternative to missile defense in • Terrorism is often sketched as a terrorism as well as dictatorships. the region may be initiatives to characteristic of the Post-Cold War obtain regional missile stability, for context, but it should be • There is a need to make example, placing regionally agreed recognized that it existed long international institutions (e.g. the limitations on missiles that would before then. However, after the IMF) accountable for human break the security dilemma in the September 11 attacks, there is a security and pressurize region. fear that terrorists may acquire governments to take responsibility WMD and missiles to deliver them for their foreign policy behaviour. Weaponization of space (an argument to support the Recommendations for S/Y Pugwash • The issue of space weapons links development of missile defense). up with missile defense in that • From our deliberations, the follow- interceptors may be put in space ing recommendations are made to and shot from and through space. S/Y Pugwash:

28 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

• New strategies should be explored • ISYP should advocate further ratifi- Macrae, note-taker: Irna van der regarding the NPT or new treaties cation of the Outer Space Treaty as Molen) that could come afterwards. Aware- a foundation for the efforts to keep • Environmental Issues and develop- ness-raising is a key priority as well space free from weapons. ment (facilitator: Magdalena Kropi- as being informed about changes in • ISYP should advocate a ‘No First wnicka, note-taker: Pablo Suarez). military strategies such as the inclu- Use’ / Moratorium Pledge on ISYP sub-group on grass-roots sion of ‘small’ nuclear weapons in deploying weapons in space to rele- aspects of human security and new the US military strategy. vant nations, especially the US. technologies • ISYP should be involved in the • ISYP should support the efforts for Conference on Disarmament and an international agreement banning In the sub-group discussions, seven feed ideas into the discourse. space weapons modelled after the papers were presented on topics • ISYP should liaison with other Ottawa-process related to grassroots aspects of NGOs, especially International • ISYP members should write editori- human security and new technolo- Network of Engineers and Scien- als in major media outlets on the gies. The papers fell in two tists for Human responsibility. space weapons issue based on categories: 1) grassroots science and • At future ISYP meetings conflict- sound scientific arguments to technology and 2) post-conflict simulations could be organized as increase awareness. reconstruction. Both categories cov- well as symposia on peaceful con- • ISYP can also create a space ered conceptual discussion and prac- flict resolution. weapons quiz for popular education. tical / action-oriented recommenda- • ISYP could invite Israeli and Pales- tions. tinian Student Pugwash members Report on ISYP Working The idea of grassroots science together to discuss scientific or Group B refers to the production of technological issues, such as those Facilitator: Tom Børsen Hansen knowledge relevant to or linked with related to water management. This Rapporteur: Irna van der Molen grassroots institutions and social should take place in a ‘neutral’ set- movements. Grassroots science rests ting removed from the region An initial overview of the papers pre- upon particular assumptions, norms (Europe?). sented in Working Group B led us to and criteria which are partly different • Increase awareness about Pugwash identify many common features that from conventional science and tech- among the general public transcended the divisions proposed nological (industrial and military) • Make ISYP’s application to be one by the conference organizers. research. Grassroots scientific activity of the UN affiliated bodies one of Inspired by Senator Roche’s encour- ought to be guided by inter-discipli- the major priorities coming out of agement at the ISYP symposium to narity, a social responsible approach this conference come forward with our own unique and new ways of thinking. • ISYP already has a project on the approach, we decided to emphasize Grassroots institutions can bene- weaponization of space, but it those issues which might be underex- fit from the use of technology. It was should also raise awareness within posed in discussions at the senior argued that the internet can the scientific, business, and political meeting, and to form the sub-groups contribute to the growth of social community in the US and among along three cross-cutting issues that, movements. Limiting factors, such as allies of the US that might in our opinion, provided a better access to the internet in developing contribute to weaponization of platform to guide our discussions: countries, were addressed. The over- space through cooperation on mis- • Grassroots aspects of human secu- all conclusion was that the internet sile defense systems. Further atten- rity and new technologies (facilita- can be helpful in making social move- tion should be paid to the impact of tor: Tom Børsen Hansen, note- ments grow. space weaponization on developing taker: Moira Ann Goodfellow) An example of grassroots science nations. • International cooperation and was presented. In the Tamil Nadu, human security (facilitator: Joanne Chengulpet district, India, an attempt

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 29 53rd Pugwash Conference will be made to obtain food security to actively address current science security debate, in which some through the establishment of so- and world affairs issues within a aspects, like individual liberty, are called agricultural information ‘clin- framework of economic democracy. considered more important than ics’. Biotechnological and ecological This would ensure the inclusion of all other values, such as collective knowledge, as well as practical skills, decision-making processes related to responsibilities. This hierarchy is will be shared with local unemployed new technologies. often reflected in the foreign policy people, enabling them to initiate agenda of many countries. The ques- ISYP sub-group on international effective agricultural production. tion is: how useful is the definition of cooperation and human security Post-conflict resolution: there is human security if it doesn’t match typically an abundance of small arms We acknowledge that geographic and people’s perception? This is where in civilian hands in post-conflict envi- cultural differentiation is required dialogue comes in, as well as ronments. These pose a serious when talking about a concept as accountability and transparency, impediment to post-conflict recon- complex as human security. There is which are also elements of the so- struction efforts and development. a human security index but this index called ‘good governance’ debate. They form part of an intricate cycle needs further contextualisation. State Since this debate has its own political of insecurity, violence, and poverty. security and human security cannot history and agenda, there should be a Combating this problem requires be seen in isolation, but at the same serious effort to open dialogue about promoting cultures of peace, commu- time, it would be naïve to assume different perceptions of human secu- nity development initiatives, and vol- that all states consider human secu- rity, accountability and democracy, as untary weapons collection programs rity as a main priority. A state can these are often historically at the grassroots level. even be a threat to human security if determined. Not acknowledging this Peace education should be particular groups are prevented from ignores the reality and is likely to actively pursued in peacekeeping having access to relevant resources. result in ineffective policies. within a civil-military cooperative Additionally, one should distin- Some governments have a politi- framework. Peace education projects guish between state security and state cal and economic agenda which is de should be targeted at different target capacity for the provision of gover- facto counter-productive to human groups, e.g. for different age groups. nance. Human security depends to a security. In these cases, one should All of these groups must be great extent on economic, political look for complementary strategies approached in a manner correspond- and social conditions in countries. which are tailored to the conditions ing to the characteristics of their We have to recognize that some local in each and every country and which group. Peace education programs and regional conflicts cannot simply allow for cooperation with civil soci- should address the concept of nega- be solved by military intervention. It ety. At the same time, we should rec- tive peace (absence of violence) and is not only useful but also necessary ognize that certain mechanisms contribute to sustainable peace. to invest in non-military activities to within international organisations do Peace education and peace culture increase human security. not promote human security. Tradi- are reflected in a nation’s peace his- One of the issues not always tional principles such as the tory. Cultures which have a history of included in the debate on human sovereignty of states can obstruct the peacefulness are better equipped and security is how conflicts are affected implementation of human security more likely to adopt a culture of by the protection or strengthening of programmes. International organisa- peace, following a conflict or other religious, ethnic and national identity. tions require therefore feedback from type of violent episode, than other We need to understand the complex- the local level to make international types of culture. Creating cultures of ity of structural conditions, temporal cooperation more appropriate and peace is closely linked to peace edu- factors and triggering events which more effective. Summarizing, the cation. But how is this accomplished? can result in political conflict. basis for ensuring human security lies The Russell-Einstein Manifesto is It seems that we have accepted a in ensuring good governance which is a good document and should be used hierarchy of values in the human in accordance with the reality of

30 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference human (in) security as this is In terms of concrete steps for the they believe we can contribute to perceived by people at local level. Pugwash movement, the following their initiatives and discussions. guidelines for future action were sug- ISYP sub-group on environment and gested: Outline of ideas presented development • Address the integrated nature of at ISYP & Pugwash Council This sub-group acknowledged that development and environment in Meeting our understanding of problems, our the next years’ Pugwash working way of defining problems and the groups Introduction: way we try to measure success is • The ‘Ethics and Science’ initiative • Thank you! often too narrow. Additionally, the should try to have an impact on • Changes in ISYP working way in which decision-making private scientific research and tech- dynamics: processes are structured can, and nological development; – Renewed atmosphere of enthusi- often does, result in the exclusion of • Organize an event (or a series of asm and cooperation those perspectives which try to events) addressing the changing – Development of concrete ideas address complexity and interconnect- nature of scientific endeavours in moving forward edness. Simultaneously, it can result the context of global economic – Acknowledged need to document in the marginalization of the interests change. We should pay attention to plans, accomplishments and com- of weaker actors, such as women, the influence of economic tenden- mitments ethnic groups, minorities, aboriginal cies in policies on science and tech- • Changes in ISYP conference: paper communities and other vulnerable nology and try to counteract the submissions, symposium, new focus groups in society. growing impact of commercial on brainstorming and project devel- Another concern is the strong interests on the long-range future of opment reflection of neoclassical economics research agendas; in policy-formulation. The partici- • Compile and highlight ‘inspiring’ Our evolving sense of purpose: pants agreed that the perspective of research initiatives that connect sci- • Spread the Pugwash way of think- neoclassical economics is misleading, ence with social responsibility in ing among students and young pro- and that it has too much influence in order to attract young scientists to fessionals, across diverse disciplines policy formulation. ethical aspects of science; and regions There was agreement on the need • While discussions and working • Facilitate the recruitment of poten- to address key issues in future groups are absolutely enriching, we tial new Pugwash members research, including: believe that the Pugwash Confer- • Provide the Pugwash conferences • Incorporation of the perspectives ences could allocate more energy to with a solid, thought-out young and concerns of marginalized action-oriented initiatives; perspective groups of society in problem defini- • Allow for more creative formats for • Identify emerging set of concerns in tion, scientific research and policy Pugwash working groups. This may the realm of science and world implementation; facilitate the identification of con- affairs • Exploration of creative ways to crete action items for participants. • ‘Warm-up’ young participants to translate the complexity of social • If senior Pugwash is interested in enrich their individual involvement and natural systems in institutional expanding participation from in the Pugwash working groups frameworks; young professionals in their deliber- • develop activities and projects tai- • Investigation of the way in which ations, ISYP would be delighted to lored to the interests of Pugwash- economic forces are shaping sit down with the Seniors in order minded young people science. Strengthen the funding of to explore mechanisms to achieve non-for-profit research that aims at this. understanding and solving the main • We as ISYP would like to learn problems that humanity faces. from Senior Pugwash in what ways

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 31 53rd Pugwash Conference

Continuing projects and new • Other recommendations - Mechanisms of international initiatives – Hold subsequent Pugwash confer- cooperation which negatively • Organization of Student/Young ences in developing countries; affect human security Pugwash (Pre-) Conferences organize more events in develop- - Economic forces which are • Activities within National Groups ing countries shaping science • ISYP symposium – Support Ottawa-type process to Brainstorming: exploring future • Educational Project lead to Ban on Space Weapons collaboration between Pugwash and – Pugwash/ISYP Collaboration on • Information and communication ISYP technology Nuclear Awareness • Questions? Comments? • Publications / Outreach – Round Table in Washington D.C. • How can ISYP contribute to Pug- • Nuclear Awareness to educate politicians on space wash efforts? – Korea 2004 ISYP Symposium weapons • How can Pugwash assist ISYP ini- – Sweden 2004 workshop – Organize events and initiatives to tiatives? – Nagasaki 2005 event address the following issues: • How can the Pugwash-ISYP dia- – Activities within National Groups - Grassroots science and the role logue be strengthened? • Support for Emerging and New of marginalized groups in sci- • What are the main challenges about National Groups ence; the long-term future of Pugwash? • UN Reform and Affiliation - Local perspectives of human What should we be doing now to • Space Weaponization security and the inclusion of local voices / perspectives in sci- strategically address those Summary of ISYP recommendations ence, policy formulation and challenges? to the Pugwash Council implementation; • Recommendations to enhance fur- ther cooperation between ISYP and senior Pugwash – Organize a meeting in which ISYP and senior Pugwash members together discuss the expansion of the Pugwash movement, mecha- nisms to address the generational Written by Nobel-prizewinner and gap within the movement, and former nuclear physicist Joseph looks towards the future; Rotblat, and peace advocate and – Discussion between ISYP and scholar Robert Hinde, War No More senior Pugwash members on provides unrivalled expert insight strategies to strengthen existing into the nature of modern warfare groups and to establish new S/Y — including ‘weapons of mass Pugwash groups in countries such destruction’. If war is ever to be as Iran, Iraq, South and North eliminated, the pair argue that the Korea, Palestine and Israel United Nations — as well as non- – Create more opportunities in governmental organizations, which senior Pugwash members religious groups, and grassroots have discussions with YP-mem- movements — all have an Pluto Press bers at national level. August 2003 / 240pp important part to play!

32 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 PUGWASH RETURNS TO THINKERS’ LODGE 20 July 2003

“This is where bridges were built...”

Opening Remarks tallize. Thinkers’ Lodge shows it is neither how big a per- son or a place is, nor how modest its scale or humble its by J. Patrick Boyer, Q.C. origins. It is always the commitment and the thinking of at Thinkers’ Lodge Sunday July 20, 2003 the people involved that make the difference. This place, and what transpired here and grew n July of 1955, the Russell-Einstein Manifesto was outward around the globe, is a central part of humanity’s proclaimed. In July of 1957, the first world meeting of story. After more than half a century of peril, the people of Iscientists convened in Pugwash. the world have still been spared devastation by thermonu- In July 2003, the 53rd World Conference and clear weapons. The Pugwash Movement was no Pugwashites return ‘home’ to Canada, to Nova Scotia, to bystander, but an active contributor, to that result. the Village of Pugwash...and to Cyrus Eaton’s Thinkers’ We now have the unique experience of hearing again Lodge! here the same voices of Joseph Rotblat and Ruth Adams For pioneers of the Pugwash Movement, like Joseph as they recount, on this day when we come “back to Pug- Rotblat and Ruth Adams, this is truly a homecoming. wash”, a perspective which only they possess because they Others of you have also were in this place at the been here before. creation of the Pugwash Yet for many, today Movement. is the very first direct Both Joseph Rotblat connection with the and Ruth Adams, par- place which gave its ticipants in that inau- name to a great cause, a gural Pugwash confer- building which has been ence in July 1957, have pictured like an icon lived lives of commit- around the globe, a ment to the highest locale that has become ideals of the Manifesto. known to you as both a The Manifesto called place and a concept. upon scientists to assem- This rather humble ble “in conference to Patrick Boyer welcomes participants to Thinkers’ Lodge. setting is where bridges appraise the perils that were built, reaching across a perilous chasm of suspicion have arisen as a result of the development of weapons of and confrontation, of military prowess and ideological mass destruction”. Such a conference to discuss a resolu- contention. Thinkers’ Lodge may be tiny, and the Village tion of that crisis would involve renunciation of war as a of Pugwash small, but in the 1950s the idea that brought social institution, learning to think in a new way, and find- 22 participants from 10 countries and both sides of the ing “continual progress in happiness, knowledge, and wis- Iron Curtain to this place was giant: the need to “think in dom.” a new way”. As we now approach the highlight for this day of The World Pugwash Movement was born here as the remembrance in a lifetime of commitment—the messages message in the Russell-Einstein Manifesto began to crys- of Jo Rotblat and Ruth Adams—I also express on behalf

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 33 53rd Pugwash Conference of Thinkers’ Lodge and our Pugwash Park Commission charter enacted in 1929 by the Nova Scotia legislature, our gratitude for this opportunity to share this place and was to improve conditions in Pugwash and beyond. its legacy with all who come here. Visitors to Thinkers’ Thanks to big thinking here in the Lodge, ‘beyond’ in time Lodge discover what transpired here. They grasp how came to include the whole world. individuals of courage and people of vision confront the It was not the whole world perhaps, but certainly those discouraging work we must still do in a world afflicted yet who cared for it, who first came here in 1957. From that by a military-industrial-scientific juggernaut and by those day unto this, our cause has been propelled an inspiring imprisoned in its old ways of thinking. leader, a winner of the 1995 Nobel Peace prize, the Presi- When Cyrus Eaton and Joseph Rotblat, Ruth Adams, dent Emeritus of the World Pugwash Movement, an hon- and the cluster of leading scientists first meet here at ourary member of our Pugwash Park Commission, an Thinkers’ Lodge 46 years ago this month, their mission original signatory to the landmark Manifesto of 1955 might easily have been abandoned in the face of such which still inspires our greatest deeds today...Sir Joseph daunting odds, had they not been galvanized by the deep- Rotblat. est commitment to building new bridges, thinking in new ways, fashioning a new reality from nothing but a dream. My fellow Commission members and I express our Reunion in Pugwash, 2003 profound hope that you will find that spark of higher Joseph Rotblat inspiration that still lives in this place. One of our mem- bers, Dr. Giovanni Benciaglia, himself a nuclear physicist t was almost exactly 46 years ago, in July 1957, when I and a relative of Cyrus Eaton, was here for the second came for the first time to this unique place on the Pugwash conference in 1959 and has remained an active Northumberland Straits, a visit that was to have an Pugwashite ever since. I enormous influence on me, in the second half of my life. Around that same time, Raymond Szabo, another of We came here then because the world situation was our Commission members, joined Cyrus Eaton as an exec- entering a dangerous phase, with a looming nuclear holo- utive assistant. Ray worked closely with Mr. Eaton until caust; and extraordinary efforts were required to prevent a his death in 1979, and today in the United States he chairs catastrophe. Now, two generations later, these perils are the Cyrus Eaton Foundation, a benefactor of the Pugwash facing us again. There is again a need for scientists to take Movement, and is also vice-chairman of our Commission steps to avert the danger. here in Canada. Is there a chance that we will succeed? In my opinion, A third member is Bryan Jamieson, a Nova Scotia and based on past history, the answer is yes, there is a banker and member of a notable local family that through chance. The main fact is that we are still here; that we three generations has been closely linked with the Eaton managed to avoid a catastrophic nuclear war, even though family. Mary Jamieson, of Pugwash, serves as our Secre- we came perilously close to it on several occasions. Many tary and Assistant Treasurer. Kathy Langille, the elected factors have contributed to this outcome, but I am sure representative to Cumberland County Council from this that the Movement of Scientists that was started here in municipality, is also Custodian of Thinkers’ Lodge. 1957, played a role in it. We were told this by a reliable Margaret Eaton, a poet, schoolteacher and counselor source, the Committee in Oslo that awarded us the Nobel in the neighbouring province of New Brunswick, is also a Prize in 1995. So it is in a mood of anticipation rather relative of Cyrus Eaton and a student of his life and serves than dejection that I want to recall some of the events as Archivist and Librarian of Thinkers’ Lodge. relating to the First Conference, held here, in Pugwash, in For my part, I first met Cyrus Eaton here at a family July 1957. reunion in 1968, little thinking at the time that I myself Before talking about the Conference, I have to recall would one day be chair of the very commission he created the background to that event, the political climate that back in 1929, or that I would become a Pugwashite at the prevailed in the world at that time. It is quite possible that invitation of Jo Rotblat to participate in a Workshop on without the invitation by Cyrus Education for Global Citizenship here in 1994. Eaton to come to Nova Scotia, there would have been The Pugwash Park Commission’s mandate, under a no international movement of scientists.

34 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

Actually, the story began two years earlier, with a Manifesto issued in London, in July, 1955. It was drafted by the British philosopher Bertrand Russell and was PEACE endorsed by Albert Einstein in one of the last acts of his begins in Pugwash life; he signed it just before be died in April 1955. It was subsequently signed by nine other scientists, nearly all where a blue heron waits for the tide Nobel Laureates, from all over the world, but it has and the salt boat slips from the harbour become generally known as the Russell-Einstein at dusk. Manifesto. It is a powerful appeal to scientists, to governments, At dawn mist rises from the tranquil and the general public to take cognizance of the dangerous water, situation that has arisen from the development of thermonuclear weapons (the hydrogen-bomb), and to and at noon, make an effort to prevent a catastrophe. beneath the blue and white United Let me quote two paragraphs from the Manifesto: Nations’ flag, “We are speaking on this occasion, not as members of on the grassy slope stretching to the this or that nation, continent, or creed, but as human shore-line, beings, members of the species Man, whose continued existence is in doubt.” sit multi-lingual scientists “Here, then, is the problem which we present to you, who have heard the rhetoric of war stark and dreadful, and inescapable: Shall we put an end but understood the poetry of peace. to the human race; or shall mankind renounce war?” I am now the last survivor of the signatories, and I con- sider it my duty to keep on reminding people of the mes- Sunlight reflects sage in the Manifesto. from myriad miniature silver doves, The Manifesto ended with a call to scientists to get together in a Conference to seek ways to avert the danger. and for a split-second, just an eye-blink, One of the first responses was the famous letter from it coalesces around the invisible silver- Cyrus Eaton, offering to pay all the expenses of the pro- white head posed Conference, if it were held in Pugwash, Nova of the industrialist-farmer-philosopher, Scotia. still in our midst, But it took two years before we actually came here. You have to recall that we were at that time at the height even though forty-six years have come of the Cold War, with all its mistrust and fears, and hostile and gone propaganda. In the United States, the malodorous since that first July. McCarthy witch hunt was still in the air. Anybody ready to sit down with Soviet scientists, and talk about nuclear The light flickers there, gaining strength, weapons and disarmament, was immediately branded as a fellow traveller, if not an actual member of the Communist before beaming the message party. For many American scientists, participation in the into the gathering darkness Conference might have spelled the end of their around the globe: professional career, let alone obtaining travel funds from their universities. There were no foundations willing to PEACE. provide funds for such an enterprise. It was only a fearless person like Cyrus Eaton, who broke the taboo, and made Margaret Eaton the Conference possible. July 21, 2003 Cyrus Eaton was a truly unique personality. He must have had a streak of the hard capitalist in him: he made a

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 35 53rd Pugwash Conference million at a young age, lost it, and made much more soon by people with left-wing views. The effect of this on the afterwards. But at the same time he was quite eager to go group from Britain was peculiar, to say the least. Lord Rus- along with the communist system in the Soviet Union, by sell, unable to come to Pugwash himself for health reasons, advocating closer relations with the Soviets at a time when wanted all the three people who helped him in the organi- this was seen as an almost treasonable offence in the zation of the meeting to go to it. But two of these were well United States. It was really extraordinary that, in one and known in England for their left-wing views, Cecil Powell the same year, he was chosen US Business Man of the Year, and Eric Burlop. Eric Burlop was by far the most militant, and awarded the Lenin Peace Prize. and Russell felt that his participation might be harmful. And with all this, he was also a scholar. He was a vora- And so we ended up with the bizarre situation of Eric Bur- cious reader, including books on philosophy. In his famous lop actually being in Pugwash, and taking part in the dis- letter to Bertrand Russell, inviting us to come to Pugwash, cussion, but officially only as a member of the secretariat, he said: “I have read all of your fascinating books again and thus not mentioned in the list of participants. and again.” Of course, no such control could be exercised on the He had a great respect for scientists. This is why he set participants from the Soviet Union, and the question has up an educational trust here, in the Eaton Lodge, his sum- often been raised whether there was any truth in the alle- mer residence, for scientists to come for relaxation and to gation that the Soviet Government tried to use the occa- sharpen their thinking. This is why this house is also called sion of the Conference for their propaganda? “The Thinker’s Lodge”. There were some unfriendly com- The answer is that attempts to use us for such a pur- ments suggesting that he could afford it because all the pose were in fact made, but they were rather clumsy, and expense was tax-deductible, but I am convinced that he we could see through them easily. To me this became obvi- would have done it in any case. However, the fact that it ous even before the First Conference began here. was the US Treasury that was ultimately financing an Travelling to Pugwash was not then as easy as it is organization that was under investigation by the US Sen- now. All the participants assembled in Montreal. From ate for anti-American activities, adds much piquancy to there we flew by Mr. Eaton’s private jet—still uncommon the story. in those days—to Moncton, in New Brunswick. From I should note here that while Mr. Cyrus Eaton was a there we travelled to Pugwash by car, a long journey gracious host, he did not—at that stage—interfere with the because the roads were then very bad. actual running of the Conference. This was left entirely in In the car in which I travelled there were two other the hands of Lord Russell and a few of his helpers, which passengers. One was Academician Alexander Topchiev, included myself. All the invitations to participants were the leader of the Soviet Group, a very senior figure in the issued from my university office in London. Soviet Union, with great influence both on science and The primary aim politics. But he did not was to ensure the par- speak any English. This ticipation of eminent is where the other pas- scientists from both senger came in. Mr sides of the Iron Cur- Vladimir Pavlichenko tain, who were also came to Pugwash as interested in and Topchiev’s translator. knowledgeable about, But it did not take me the issues to be more than half and discussed. Conscious hour of conversation of the political with him to realize that climate, that I have he had another role, just described, Lord besides translating. He Russell was anxious was in fact the KGB that the participation man, with the task to from the West should ensure that the party Nestor Acosta Tieles and Eric Ferguson enjoying Scottish bagpiper. not be overrepresented line was being followed.

36 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

On the first day of the Conference, Alexander Topchiev not from personal contacts. We trusted each other’s scien- made an important statement. He spoke in Russian, and tific integrity, and we built on that trust when discussing was immediately followed by Pavlichenko with the English political issues. This was helped by our decision to con- translation. But he managed to insert into Topshiev’s duct the discussions in the scientific spirit of rational speech some Soviet propaganda. However, he did not approach and objective analysis. reckon with the presence among the American group of This Conference proved that scientists have a common Eugene Rabinowitch, who had been born in what was purpose, which can transcend national frontiers without then, and is again now, St. Petersburg. So when violating basic loyalties. Pavlichenko finished, Eugene got up and said, “Mr. A very important factor also was the relaxed and con- Pavlichenko, this was not an exact translation”: and then genial atmosphere of this place to which our hostess, Anne he gave a corrected version of the speech. After this, Jones, who later became Mrs. Cyrus Eaton, greatly con- Pavlichenko was much more circumspect. From later meet- tributed with her charm, and her joie de vivre, undimin- ings it became clear that the Soviet contingent included two ished by being confined to a wheelchair. types: genuine scientists, many of them of such eminence in I hope that your visit today to this serene location will science that they could afford to speak up openly at our enable you to capture some of that atmosphere, and that it meetings even against official Soviet policies; and a few will invigorate you to continue our efforts towards a aparatchiks, who came to toe the party line. world of peace, a goal as important today as it was 46 So, were we, from the West, naïve and prey to Soviet years ago. propaganda? Looking at it now, from the perspective of time, it seems that it actually worked the other way round. Over the years, in many discussions in Pugwash meetings, Reflections, 1957–2003 we managed to persuade our Soviet colleagues that some of Ruth S. Adams the policies pursued by the Soviet Government were lead- ing to disaster. There is good reason to believe that our ooking back across a lengthy span of 46 years, the Russian colleagues, many of whom carried considerable 1957 gathering of scientists in Pugwash still stands weight in their country, were instrumental in introducing Lout for the bold and forward-looking message it the radical changes made by Mikhail Gorbachev. In partic- carried to the world. We remember most immediately, of ular, we can claim credit for the halting of the nuclear arms course, the international consensus of scientists it enunci- race. Gorbachev told us this himself. No mean achievement ated in the substantive area of controlling nuclear for a Movement that started here in Pugwash! weapons. But no less important was the breakthrough in Actually, when we came here in 1957, we did not envisage the meeting as the start of a worldwide movement of scientists. We, the organizers, considered it initially as a one-off event. This was so because we feared that the Conference would not be successful. The issues we were going to discuss were so controversial, that even in the West there were strong divisions on them. We were apprehensive that these divisions would become much more exacerbated when confronted with the ideas from the other side of the Iron Curtain. As it turned out, these fears were unwarranted. The Conference was a great success and we decided to carry on with the effort by setting up a new organization to which we gave the title: “The Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs”. I ascribe this success to several factors. One was that it was a meeting of scientists. Most of the participants were physicists, who knew each other from their publications, if Ruth Adams and Will Marshall.

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the relationships and depth of communications it embod- MESSAGE ied, at that time especially among scientists, across not only international borders but social systems, political TO THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE regimes, and hemispheres. ON SCIENCE AND WORLD AFFAIRS Globalization today has taken on other meanings as well, some of them controversial, but most fundamentally it refers to the outward spread to all of the world’s peoples The Honorable Kofi Annan, and to every walk of life, of that original outlook that Pug- Secretary-General, United Nations wash quite breathtakingly embodied. My own opportu- nity to participate was a result of having worked with our gathering Eugene Rabinowitch as assistant editor of the Bulletin of takes place as Atomic Scientists. Born in St. Petersburg, the tumultuous Ywe grapple political events of his life brought him to Chicago and the with a number of Manhattan Project during World War II. A prolific writer and sensitive analyst of political issues, he made important serious issues on the contributions to the Pugwash movement and attended all agenda of international of its meetings during his lifetime. Published reports of the peace and security. As discussions and agreements regularly appeared in the Bul- we pursue our work in letin. I must have been one of the youngest participants at the service of peace, we the original gathering. That first meeting was to shape know that our two institutions have much in most of the following decades of my life. But along with common. Both stand for human values that tran- the many strands of continuity of which I remain deeply scend the interests of any one nation state. We conscious, I am no less conscious of the extraordinary stand together in standing for all. array of world changes in which we have sometimes reluc- tantly, sometimes eagerly, participated. We need to think For almost half a century, Pugwash has made a today as much about the kaleidoscopic changes of context unique contribution by exploring ways to chan- that Pugwash and its membership have endured, adapted nel the insights and methods of science into the to, and tried both to shape and to anticipate, as we reflect service of the public good, particularly the cause on the community we have become and the long list of of world peace. I applaud the focus of this years achievements for which we can take credit. conference on the challenge of advancing human As a young woman finding her way in the post-World security, which calls for fresh efforts around the War II period, my path of convergence with the concerns globe on a number of fronts: eliminating nuclear that led to Pugwash focused on human rights that were then, as now are still, under attack. The stifling of weapons and other weapons of mass destruction; discourse and diversity represented by the McCarthy hear- curbing the development, production, and export ings was very much with us then. Peacemaking itself was of long-range missiles; banning weapons from widely regarded as suspect, under the threatening cloud of space; combating terrorism; addressing threats to a nuclear holocaust that was still recent enough for many the environment; and promoting social and eco- of the Cold War calculations accompanying it to come as nomic development through the prudent use of highly unpleasant surprises. The many scientists and science and technology. The number of countries scholars who had come to the University of Chicago as represented at this gathering is eloquent refugees had substantially transformed its character, con- testimony of your truly global approach to these tributing directly to the establishment not only of the Bul- and other issues. I thank every one of you for letin of Atomic Scientists but later the Federation of Amer- ican Scientists. The Iron Curtain that had descended very your commitment, and wish you a most stimulat- soon after the war had the effect for some time of impris- ing conference. oning the values and goals of peoples on both sides. Then out of correspondence in 1955 came the Russell-

38 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 Einstein appeal. To those of us in Chicago it was like find- them, and at the same time shape them within a frame- ing a crack in the Iron Curtain. Especially to me, and to work of consistent principles and values, just as we origi- many of those in my generation in that setting, it gave nally took leadership in finding an international basis for meaning and set a principled direction that we could fol- confronting the nuclear peril. low with enthusiasm. It is easy to forget now that war had Still taken as a given at our first meeting, as I reflect had the universal effect of concentrating science in govern- upon it, was the sovereignty of the nation-states from ment laboratories, on goals and priorities set with essen- which we all came, and of a general acceptance of the tially no regard for scientific imperatives, and under condi- paramount claims which the regimes in most of those tions of secrecy that greatly impeded communication even states felt free to make upon our behavior, basic values, among immediate colleagues in the same institution. The and loyalty. Those paramount claims are more contested ‘fifties were a time when that force of obstruction was today than they were then. The UN is no longer in its beginning to lift, when educational and scientific institu- infancy, even if the limitations of its powers are more tions were reasserting their independence, when the need apparent than what we then hoped. Today there are many for open communication and cooperation on common, international communities that embody shared values and great problems across all boundaries once again became loyalties. They do not erase national boundaries, but they apparent. We were a part of that, and very much in the mitigate and circumscribe their more absolutist meanings. forefront of it. Pugwash is among the very best of these trans-national The physical sciences were still in their government- communities. I look back with gratitude and pride on the imposed ascendancy at the time, but excitement was in decades of my association with it. the air of coming revolutions in biology. Science in not- Some of you here today are members of the third for-profit and corporate settings was still largely seen as a generation since Pugwash began, and in itself your pres- different kind of enterprise. But there too, coming change ence is dramatic evidence of the success of the Pugwash was visible along a distant horizon. These enormous conferences. As we reflect on our origins we pay tribute changes are all around us now, parts of Pugwash’s inti- to all the young scientists who continue to work for peace mate environment. I hope we can find ways to embrace and security.

Participants at first Pugwash Conference, July 1957.

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 39 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Promoting Human Security: The Experience of Reconstruction

country where the danger and destruction of conflict con- By Susan Whelan tinued long after fighting stopped because of the millions Minister for International Cooperation of land mines seeded into the ground, how would you feel about planting crops in those fields? ood afternoon, Senator Roche, Professor Swami- If you were an entrepreneur in Sri Lanka, or anywhere nathan, Professor Cotta-Ramusino, Dr. Boutwell experiencing long years of conflict and uncertain truces, Gand everyone who worked towards making this how would you feel about creating or expanding a busi- conference possible. It is an honour to be with you here ness to create new jobs, without the assurance of personal today. or state security? Even if you wanted to take the risk, History and culture make the times of peace and con- would it be possible if roads and other basic infrastructure flict in every country unique. Even so, there were still destroyed? are clearly some constants across all the dif- Conflict causes devastation: death, ferences. One of them is this: peace and injury, disease, property loss and poverty. human security are basic prerequisites for What is equally true but bears repeating, is sustainable development. that violent conflict stops and reverses sus- Let’s consider for a moment the legacy of tainable development—that delicate balanc- four Balkan wars in the 1990’s. During these ing of social, economic and environmental conflicts, 200,000 people were killed and elements that are essential to improving the three million residents were forced to flee lives of people today, without compromising their homes. More than 1,000 UN peace- the chances for future generations to do the keepers were killed or wounded. Material same. damage was estimated at 20 to 60 billion Now, I’m certain this isn’t news to peo- dollars. Buried, but not forgotten, there are ple like yourselves, who are committed to more than 300 suspected mass grave sites, The Honorable Susan Whelan. promoting peace, human security, and sus- and more than three million land mines tainable development. It is only relatively throughout the region. Real Gross Domestic Product fell recently, however, that the international community has to half of its 1989 levels. started to formally articulate these ideas. In these horrific numbers that paint a picture of states In 1997, at a high-level meeting of the Development in conflict, it’s easy to lose sight of the challenges, Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organisation for Eco- tragedies, and triumphs of the individuals caught within nomic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, develop- them. ment ministers endorsed a policy statement entitled, If you were a parent in Northern Uganda, or some “Conflict, Peace and Development on the Threshold of the other region where 15,000 children have been killed or 21st Century.” Canada played a significant role in the kidnapped from their schools during the last 16 years to development of these DAC guidelines, and with their 2001 serve as child soldiers and sex slaves, how would you feel supplement on “Helping Prevent Violent Conflict.” about sending your child to school? Briefly, the DAC guidelines offer some principles to If you were a farmer in Mozambique, or some other partners engaged in international development for effec-

40 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference tive action in conflict situations. They recognize both the Canadian and international groups for a variety of innova- opportunities and the limits of third-party or external tive projects ranging from small arms collection in influence. Noting that all aid has political consequences, Mozambique to voter education in Afghanistan. At the the guidelines call on aid policy makers to try to ensure Department of Foreign Affairs, the Human Security Pro- that aid does not exacerbate tension, prolong conflict, or gram contributes to policy advocacy focused on counter- reinforce or legitimize parties in conflict, all while maxi- ing threats of violence and conflict. In fact, some of the mizing benefits. Other principles call for: transparency; funding for this event today came from this program, and encouraging and maintaining inclusive dialogue; reinforc- my colleague Minister Graham sends his regrets that he is ing local capacities; recognizing women as stakeholders unable to attend. and peacemakers; working with war-affected children and Since the end of the Cold War, the international secu- youth; acting in timely and flexible ways and thinking rity agenda has changed dramatically. Most humanitarian long-term; and using creative, incentive-driven approaches crises today are in conflict zones. Places like Kosovo, for constructive engagement. The benefits of peace must Afghanistan and Iraq spring to mind, as do the Congo and be seen to be clearly preferable to the perceived benefits of Liberia. Most of these conflicts occur within states rather conflict. Finally, there is a call to “act on the costly lessons than between separate countries. The protracted nature of learned about the need for coordinated and coherent these internal conflicts, and their impact on poverty and action and policy.” The DAC guidelines are the intellec- human rights, has led agencies like CIDA to renew their tual context for Canada’s post-conflict reconstruction commitment to conflict prevention, while having to grap- assistance. ple with the realities of post-conflict reconciliation and To be effective, that assistance must be part of coordi- reconstruction. nated diplomatic, military, trade and aid responses. This is Canada’s Human Security Agenda is made up of five something we have been doing for a number of years; but areas: conflict prevention, governance and accountability, again, it is only recently that the Canadian government protection of civilians, peace support operations and pub- has started to articulate what we are calling the 3D lic safety. All of these elements, including the respect for model—diplomacy, defense and development—that brings human rights, are necessary for creating a world in which together three different departments within the Govern- people live free from fear. ment of Canada. The activities of all these departments In peace support operations, CIDA and the have an impact on developing countries, and the increas- Department of Foreign Affairs work with our Canadian ing policy coherence encouraged by this coordination is forces and local communities in countries that have expe- essential to strengthening aid effectiveness and promoting rienced conflict to promote the transition to sustainable sustainable development. peace. My department, the Canadian International Develop- CIDA and the Department of Foreign Affairs also ment Agency, or CIDA, has a mandate to support sustain- work with the Office of the Solicitor General, the Royal able development in developing countries to reduce Canadian Mounted Police and the Department of Justice poverty for a more secure, equitable and prosperous on a number of judicial and police-related activities. world. It is primarily responsible for Canada’s Official I want to focus on Canada’s work in the Balkans as an Development Assistance. example of our work in post-conflict peace building. CIDA, the Department of National Defense and the I began this afternoon with an outline of some of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade are consequences of the prolonged conflict in the Balkans. increasingly working together on peace building and From the first, Canada was involved diplomatically and human security, including conflict prevention. Canada’s militarily, primarily with peacekeeping in Bosnia-Herze- work on land mines, for example, involves the three main govina, but also taking part in the NATO force which players in diplomacy, defense and development, as well as acted in 1999 to halt and prevent further ethnic cleansing Industry Canada. in Kosovo. The Canadian Peacebuilding Initiative, which is a joint Canada was also involved in getting humanitarian undertaking of CIDA and the Department of Foreign assistance to people in need. Meeting basic human needs is Affairs, is another good example of collaboration. At always a primary concern in reconstruction. Since 1999, CIDA, the Peacebuilding Fund provides resources to CIDA has supported the distribution of shelter, winter

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clothing, medicine, food and water to more than 900,000 ability of aid agencies like CIDA to respond in conflict and returning refugees and displaced persons in the region. post-conflict situations. For example, a Civilian Deploy- Safety and security is another basic need that is most ment mechanism allows CIDA to deploy a wide range of obviously lacking during conflict. Canada deployed over Canadian expertise from the public and private sectors to 250 police officers to Kosovo, Bosnia and Macedonia to assist partner countries with peace support and reform fill the security vacuum in the immediate post-conflict activities. periods. We created a $20-million mine action program. Third, we have a lot more to learn. Like other donors, We supported the rule of law by: deploying forensic teams CIDA has struggled in the western Balkans with the bal- to gather evidence for the prosecution of war crimes, ancing act required to integrate solid analysis and conflict developing a self-sustaining correctional service in prevention approaches with the day-to-day challenges of Kosovo, providing training to foster regional cooperation managing a development program. and build capacity in police services, providing training for Collaboration and coordination have proven their judges to improve skills and promote independence and worth for Canadian activities in the Balkans. One example impartiality, as well as by advising on parliamentary of the 3D model is the Civil-Military Cooperation reform to increase transparency and effectiveness. program. Canadian Forces on the ground help local peo- We provided budgetary support to the UN mission in ple make connections with other individuals and organiza- Kosovo and deployed Canadians with valuable expertise tions who can help them to accomplish their own develop- in human rights and justice to multilateral institutions ment goals. I had the opportunity to see for myself this working in the Balkans. All of these activities succeeded in kind of cooperation in action in Bosnia when I visited that providing a measure of security and stability that allowed country in May this year. other reconstruction and reforms to proceed. The lessons we are learning in reconstruction activities Canada was active in establishing the International follow some basic principles: Crimes Tribunal to deal with those who have committed Local ownership, donor coordination, policy coher- atrocities. We also took the lead on the International ence, and the need for good governance. Criminal Court to ensure that perpetrators of atrocities Last September, I launched a policy statement on will be held to account by the international community. In strengthening aid effectiveness which was based on these March, senior Canadian diplomat Philippe Kirsch, a lead- same principles. They guide our work in general, and are ing figure in the recent establishment of the International clearly being applied to our post-conflict reconstruction Criminal Court, was elected one of its judges and its first efforts in Afghanistan, for example. President. There can be no impunity for war crimes at any Under the Bonn Agreement of December 2001, the level if there is to be a substantive return to rule of law. international community and Afghan representatives People must be able to see that there can be, and will be, established the interim government for Afghanistan and justice. the action plan for rebuilding the nation. A significant part In order to help rebuild the quality of life and not just of that rebuilding effort involves the re-establishment of ensure survival in the Balkans, we are helping to improve good governance in the country. the quality of health, education, energy and communica- Just over half of the assistance CIDA provided to tion services, and we are supporting small- and medium- Afghanistan last year was in support of the government’s sized enterprises by addressing constraints to business operating budget and various programs related to nation- development. building efforts, to promote stability and prevent further What have we learned from all this activity? conflict, internally and as well as internationally. This First, material aid is not enough. Weak or failed states summer, Canada becomes one of the largest troop- need institutions that work, and that are seen to be work- contributing nations to the International Security Assis- ing so that laws are properly debated and universally tance Force. Together, CIDA and National Defense will applied and obeyed. This kind of capacity-building, as build on our experience and success in the Balkans by with all development, is most effective in the context of an putting a Civil-Military Cooperation program into effect. overarching and coherent plan for peace, reconstruction The rebuilding of Afghanistan has to be owned by and sustainable development. Afghans, but they need international financial support to Second, flexible delivery mechanisms are critical to the do it. The 1998 World Bank study “Assessing Aid: What

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Works and Why?” concluded that aid should be increas- dian Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson said: ingly allocated to poor countries with strong policy envi- “Just as we cannot in this day have a stable national ronments to maximize positive results. However, it also democracy without progress in living standards, without stated that timely reconstruction assistance can have a crit- too great extremes of wealth and poverty, likewise we can- ical development impact. In poor-performing, low-income not have One World at peace without a general social and countries emerging from a situation of protracted conflict, economic progress in the same direction.” significant amounts of well-targeted aid can have the most With peace a necessary prerequisite for sustainable beneficial impact on economic growth and poverty reduc- development, and with the journey through peace building tion. Without sufficient outside assistance, they risk slip- and reconstruction as long and arduous as it is, conflict ping back into conflict. prevention is all the more desirable. Very simply, it is cen- All of these lessons learned are also helping to guide tral to poverty reduction and sustainable development. our reconstruction efforts in Iraq, which are only just Development agencies must accept the risk of working on beginning. Canada’s focus will be assistance to rebuild conflict and conflict prevention, rather than around it. Iraqi institutions. Basic services like health care, water, and In recent years, more than 80 percent of CIDA’s sanitation are obviously a priority; but we will also sup- humanitarian assistance has gone to help victims of con- port legal reform, judicial reform and critical elements like flict—human-made disasters—rather than hurricanes, police and correction services. earthquakes, or drought. We need to turn this power to The most important lessons about peace, conflict, destroy towards more positive ends, not just to rebuild reconstruction and development are not new ideas in the after conflict, but to prevent it from happening in the first least, but they may perhaps be the hardest lessons to learn place. The challenges are great, but so is our commitment and put into practice. Nearly half a century ago, in his to facing them, for peace, for prosperity, for people. acceptance speech of the Nobel Peace Prize, former Cana- Thank you.

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 43 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

DOROTHY HODGKIN MEMORIAL LECTURE The Resurrection of Multilateral Disarmament

that the Russell-Einstein Manifesto appeals but to scien- Jayantha Dhanapala tists as human beings faced with the extinction of their species if nuclear weapons are ever used again. This is Introduction where these two wise men were echoing the words of y warm thanks to Immanuel Kant who once wrote “Science is organized the Pugwash Con- knowledge. Wisdom is organized life”. We have, 48 years Mferences on Science after the Russell-Einstein Manifesto was issued, still to and World Affairs for the great make the transition from knowledge to wisdom and to honour of being invited to respond to its appeal that “We have to learn to think in a deliver the Dorothy Hodgkin new way” on questions of weapons of mass Memorial Lecture. I am not a scientist and must admit to destruction(WMD). being among those who have suffered from the schism of This lecture is in memory of Dr. Dorothy Crowfoot the ‘two cultures’ of the sciences and the humanities which Hodgkin—chemist, pioneer crystallographer, Nobel Lau- C.P.Snow famously spoke of in his historic 1959 Rede reate and of course—as President of Pugwash—supporter Lecture. It is a schism which has still to be bridged in mod- of the humanist and humanitarian cause of nuclear disar- ern education even though the complexity of contempo- mament. I hope my modest contribution will be seen as an rary life demands a more holistic and integrated approach act of homage to her memory. to all issues that face us today and which the ubiquity of ICT alone cannot achieve. The Problems I have, however, been a longtime admirer of the firm I have chosen to speak on “The Resurrection of Multilat- principles and dedicated endeavours of the Pugwash eral Disarmament” before a group of very distinguished Movement which has deservedly earned you all the Nobel scientists not because I am a naïve optimist or because I Peace Prize in 1995.The Russell-Einstein Manifesto of seek some genetic engineering breakthrough to invent a 1955—the 50th anniversary of which will be observed in new clone to bring about transformational change in the 2005—remains an awesomely prescient and inspiring doc- disarmament field. The multilateral system for disarma- ument for the peace and disarmament movement. As a tes- ment and arms limitation is widely regarded today as tament of nuclear disarmament and the abolition of war it moribund. The responsible approach for those of us who will remain historic. But it is also a virtual Hippocratic remain committed to disarmament through the rule of Oath for scientists confronted with the eternal dilemma of international law is not merely to engage in hand wring- dual use ingenuity. It is a statement of conscience and of ing. We must do something to breathe new life into the accountability of all scientists as human beings. As system. Disarmament, especially the disarmament of Bertrand Russell wrote in his letter of 5th April, 1955 to WMD, is at a critical crossroad. It is true that we tend to Albert Einstein, “Scientists have, and feel they have, a spe- identify periods of time as being critical when we disagree cial responsibility, since their work has unintentionally with contemporary trends. The Russell-Einstein Manifesto caused our present dangers.” It is not only to scientists refers to times of peril during the Cold War. It is over a

44 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference decade since the end of the Cold War led to an illusion of ever the circumstances, is clear. What are worse are the security as the prospect of global nuclear war receded into dual standards being adopted towards proliferation with the background. The disarmament endeavour did lead to some proliferation being regarded as benign and others as positive results in the past. Concrete reductions of nuclear being downrightly evil depending on the nature of the rul- weapons through actual destruction of missiles followed ing regime in the proliferating country. This Manichean the INF and START I. Reductions (but not destruction) of judgment is made in terms of the relationship of the prolif- deployed strategic weapons followed more recently after erating countries towards particular powers unmindful of the Moscow treaty of May 2002 although most of us do the fact that regimes change and with them the relation- not consider this a disarmament treaty. As a result we do ships forged with the powers. The proliferation of nuclear have fewer nuclear weapons deployed today than at the weapons to Israel, India and Pakistan though not formally height of the Cold War. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test recognized is certainly being accepted as inevitable and Ban Treaty (CTBT) was signed in 1996 in a dramatic irreversible. Realpolitik has played its role in this notwith- breakthrough for the advocates of nuclear disarmament standing Security Council Resolution 1172 in respect of who had long seen this as a litmus test of the political will India and Pakistan. Countries who have had the capability to disarm. These apparent successes are now not only of going nuclear and have not done so have witnessed this under siege but they stand a real danger of being over- ‘managed proliferation’ with concern. Some may even be turned as nuclear weapons are, quite unabashedly, being encouraged to harbour secret ambitions to go nuclear. The given a new rationale and the dangers of both indefinite publicly declared stance of the Democratic People’s possession and proliferation have acquired a new urgency. Republic of Korea (DPRK) to withdraw from the NPT Not only has the threshold for the actual use of nuclear and announce its nuclear ambitions has raised the fear of weapons been lowered dangerously but allegations of proliferation in North-east Asia beyond DPRK in a sort of WMD possession are being trivialized as casus belli with- domino effect. We cannot forge a principled multilateral out verifiable proof. The ideological basis for this existed response to violations of non-proliferation norms if some in some countries before the events of 11 September 2001 members of the international community choose to look but today counter-terrorism has been widely cited as the the other way. All this is symptomatic of a weakening of reason for massive increases in military expenditure. the non-proliferation norm and some cynicism regarding Before we can revive the disarmament process let us the subjective manner with which it has been implemented. analyze what afflicts it. The problems confronting the The second category of problems is connected to the world in so far as WMD are concerned are complex. I first because of the failure of existing nuclear weapon would like to place them in five categories. The first is the states to fulfill their promises to disarm and to achieve the horizontal proliferation of nuclear weapons beyond the total elimination of nuclear weapons. As long as nuclear five nuclear weapon states recognized in the Nuclear Non- weapon states continue to enjoy the power, deterrence proliferation Treaty (NPT). With the South Asian nuclear effects and influence derived directly from nuclear weapon tests of 1998 we have, de facto, 8 countries with a nuclear possession we cannot realistically expect the non-prolifer- weapon capability (not counting the Democratic People’s ation norm to hold indefinitely. This is not to cite the Republic of Korea). A dilemma, both political and moral, record of nuclear weapon states as extenuating lies at the root of the non-recognition of Israel, India and circumstances for nuclear proliferation. No WMD prolif- Pakistan as nuclear weapon states. And yet without their eration is acceptable. Our moral and indeed our scientific active co-operation we are unable to make progress on position would, however, not be complete if we did not at nuclear disarmament let alone nuclear abolition. In every the same time deplore the continued possession of nuclear one of the cases of proliferation since the NPT was signed weapons by those who have them. The brazen withdrawal in 1968, a recognized nuclear weapon state has either wit- of DPRK from the NPT and its open admission of a tingly (for raisons d’etat) or unwittingly (through careless nuclear weapon programme have left the international custody of nuclear material and /or technology or naïve community perplexed as to what credible and effective transfer of technology arrangements) been the source of action can be taken. The IAEA has asked Iran to sign the the transfer of this technology. The burden of guilt, what- Additional Protocol on safeguards as a demonstration of

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good faith on Iran’s part and as a means of enabling the was among the reasons why the breakup of the Soviet IAEA to expand its verification powers. We may well have Union was viewed with such alarm by those who cared more countries following the proliferation route either about the safeguarding of nuclear materials and technol- overtly or covertly especially since it is a moot point ogy in the former Soviet states and the future of the whether the invasion of Iraq has encouraged or deterred trained nuclear scientists there. It was the first time in his- more countries to acquire WMD. The ‘nth country’ syn- tory that a nuclear weapon state had imploded and we drome that was widely discussed in apocalyptical terms in have not learned any lessons that would make the next the 1950s and 1960s has returned to haunt us. break-up of a nuclear weapon state any easier to manage. The NPT was expected to be the bulwark to halt the The visionary Nunn-Lugar Co-operative Threat Reduc- trend towards proliferation and it has served that purpose tion programme has contributed greatly towards mitigat- admirably for three decades with the exception of Iraq and ing the problem but despite this too many reports of leak- DPRK. Do we need fresh mechanisms now or do we need ages of material continue to be recorded. It proves not to end forever the casteism or apartheid between the only that the safeguards are still inadequate but also that a ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’? Those who have nuclear demand continues for such materials with many shadowy weapons regard it as their ‘ manifest destiny’ while those groups in the market. After September 11, 2001 when the who do not, appear to be under a ‘cargo cult’— if I may astonishing scale of the terrorist attacks in the USA were borrow a term from the cultural anthropologists who revealed, the relief that WMD were not used was quickly write of the mesmerizing effect of manufactured goods replaced by a deeper anxiety that such use was not beyond being brought into developing countries by plane. Assum- the reach of the organizational capacity of Al Quaeda and ing that some supernatural force had endowed these devel- similarly well-funded and fanatical groups with their oped industrialized countries with manufactured goods, global reach. That anxiety is well founded not only in the traditional societies of Melanesia in the 19th century respect of nuclear weapons and the more likely danger of prayed to the spirits of the dead to bring them cargoes of a ‘dirty bomb’ (or a radiological device to disperse modern goods for distribution and restore their golden age radioactive material through the use of conventional to them. Sadly today the possession of WMD is seen as an explosives) but also with biological and chemical weapons attribute of power and development which can ensure where the detection of clandestine programmes is more independence and sovereignty. It is a quest to be ‘mimic difficult. men’ which V.S. Naipaul writes of in one of his early nov- A different category of problems exists in the paralysis els or the ‘Brown Sahib’ syndrome familiar to South of the disarmament machinery and the weakening of the Asians like me. The attractions of nuclear weapons in par- multilateral system which provided the context for con- ticular acquire greater urgency for medium to large size structive and result-oriented multilateral disarmament countries in conflict-ridden regional situations that have a diplomacy. Twenty-five years after the First Special Session reasonably strong industrial base to sustain a nuclear of the UN General Assembly devoted to Disarmament weapon development programme. That it conflicts with (SSOD I) achieved its remarkable Final Document by con- solemn treaty undertakings and international conventions sensus we find the machinery it set up for the deliberation is seen as less important than the overriding national secu- and negotiation of disarmament issues in disarray. The 66 rity interest. After all the same argument of the supremacy member Geneva based Conference on Disarmament (CD) of national interest is used by nuclear weapon states to —a direct descendant of the Eighteen Nation Disarm- abrogate treaties, to refuse to sign other internationally ament Commission (ENDC)—has not even been able to agreed conventions to protect global welfare and to actu- agree on a programme of work because of disagreements ally attempt the legal invention of ‘unsigning’ treaties with on the priorities of the disarmament agenda. Some states impunity. believe that the CD should resume work on negotiating a The third set of problems arises from the serious emer- Fissile Material Treaty (FMT) for which a mandate—the gence of the danger that WMD may be used by terrorists Shannon Mandate—was agreed upon sometime ago. Oth- or sub-national groups for anarchist, secessionist or other ers argue that concurrently with negotiations for a FMT purposes. This danger predated September 11, 2001. It work should also begin on the prevention of an arms race

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in outer space, on nuclear disarmament and on negative agree on an agenda for a fourth special session of the Gen- security assurances on the basis of mandates that could be eral Assembly on disarmament (SSOD IV) failed to reach non-negotiating if necessary. An earlier compromise for- consensus. mula by the then Brazilian Ambassador Amorim has now All these diplomatic failures are of course indicative of been elaborated as a proposal from five past Presidents of a general malaise in the political arena and cannot be the CD cutting across group loyalties. This has failed to blamed on the machinery itself or its individual compo- find acceptance and clearly the main actors in the nents. Political will is frequently cited in diplomatic nego- stalemate are the USA and China. A lack-lustre debate is tiations— the presence or absence of which can make a held perfunctorily when the CD meets but increasingly vast difference. Clearly the political will of key countries is member states are losing faith in the process and some more important than others. The generation of political have withdrawn the Ambassadors they had specially will depends largely on public opinion in democracies, on accredited to this important body. Misguided calls for the pressures brought to bear on countries and on the policies abolition of the CD are dangerous. It is easier to destroy pursued by incumbent governments. Ultimately it is the multilateral institutions than to create them. The CD has world view of a small group of very powerful countries been idle for long periods before especially during the that determines whether multilateral disarmament will Cold War and I have no doubt that when political will work or not. It could decide to let some aspects of multi- reappears the CD will resume functioning. lateral disarmament work in a sort of ‘a la carte’ multilat- In the cluster of deliberative bodies the First Commit- eralist approach. This indeed appears to be present situa- tee of the General Assembly is the forum for disarmament tion where on Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) we and security issues. It meets annually during the autumn have a Programme of Action being implemented globally. for approximately 5 weeks to go through an agenda of On antipersonnel landmines, the Mine Ban Convention items. Some of them are ‘hardy perennials’ which are and the Additional Protocol of the CCW Convention are debated ritualistically and voted upon. Consensus is working on parallel tracks. A change of policy of a super- reached on a few resolutions but the resolutions on power like the USA can accelerate progress dramatically as nuclear issues are invariably adopted with a division. Vot- happened when the Clinton Administration decided, ing patterns have changed over the years with most of the against pressures from some vested interests, to begin former Warsaw Pact countries now voting with NATO negotiations on a CTBT bringing many of its allies to the while the countries of the Non-aligned Movement (NAM) table reluctantly. Today with the rejection of the ratifica- are no longer as tightly-knit as during the Cold War. The tion of the CTBT by the US Senate and the current Admin- Security Council’s discussion and action on disarmament istration’s policy the prospects for the entry into force of issues has been confined to proliferation of WMD as in the CTBT are bleak. the Summit held in January 1992. It has also addressed Finally there is the category of problems arising from country-specific situations as with Iraq. Another special prevailing strategic or defence doctrines. It is the pursuit of meeting of the Security Council to discuss WMD prolifera- these doctrines that influence decision-making in key tion issues is projected for later this year with a view to countries and until these doctrines are abandoned or creating a mechanism analogous to the Counter Terrorism revised the current crisis in multilateral disarmament is Committee (CTC) set up in the immediate aftermath of unlikely to end. In the time of the Cold War the doctrine 9/11. This, I fear, will only reignite the concerns of the of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was well known. non-nuclear weapon states that the casteism of the ‘haves’ The conventional arms superiority of the former USSR and ‘have-nots’ is being institutionalized at a time when a resulted in that country’s adoption of the nuclear policy of more inclusive approach is needed. The more specialized ‘no first use’. This was abandoned after the Cold War disarmament forum—the Disarmament Commission— when NATO was perceived to have a conventional arms failed to meet in its 50th year in 2002 and this year con- superiority. Russian diplomats have told me that they were cluded its session without consensus on the two issues it instructed to mine the statements of US representatives had on its agenda for four years. In addition the Working during the Cold War to find arguments in favour of this Group set up by a resolution of the General Assembly to volte face!! Today only China and India have ‘no first use’

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 47 53rd Pugwash Conference policies. It had also been expected that with the end of the rorist using indiscriminate violence on the basis that the Cold War there would be a lower salience of nuclear end justifies the means must be maintained at all times. weapons in strategic doctrines and military strategies. However NATO—the only surviving military alliance and Possible Solutions with additional members—remains wedded to the use of I have laid out a litany of troubles. Now what do we do nuclear weapons, admittedly as a weapon of last resort. about it? The enormity of the challenges I have discussed The efforts of Germany and Canada to have this reviewed in their five categories cannot be overcome with any one have failed so far and small wonder that Russia therefore magic solution. Nor can a half hour lecture hope to sug- shows more reliance on nuclear weapons today. gest all the solutions to resurrect multilateral disarmament The US, as the largest nuclear weapon state, has the death of which has been triumphantly proclaimed by recently issued its Nuclear Posture Review and National the neo-conservatives of Washington D.C. think-tanks. I Security Strategy. Both documents represent a fundamen- do believe however that the time has come for us all to tal change in post Cold war trends. Firstly the threshold ‘think in a new way’ as the Russell-Einstein Manifesto has for the actual use of weapons is being lowered urged us. Innovative ideas do not all come spontaneously. dangerously as pre-emptive uses are planned even against They require a collective endeavour. We have had the non-nuclear weapon states. The contradiction of this with experience of high level commissions produce new ways of the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice thinking and new concepts in the post World War II era. in 1996 and the Security Council Resolution 984 of 1995 Institutions like the UN have also produced new ideas like providing security assurances for non-nuclear weapon ‘human development’ and ‘good governance’ and the states is obvious. Secondly the new policy—subsequently ongoing project on the intellectual history of the UN will ratified by Congressional budgetary approval—is to begin no doubt record this. But institutions have their own research and development on ‘mini-nukes’ or low-yield bureaucratic processes and their budgetary problems. We nuclear weapons for specific purposes such as ‘bunker need a flexible and supple mechanism to seed a global busters’ to penetrate hardened and deeply buried targets. change that will encompass all the global and regional The period of notice required for a resumption of nuclear organizations including the UN. Just as the Brandt Com- testing has also been shortened although the Bush Admin- mission sensitized us all to the North/South divide; the istration has repeatedly stated that there is no intention to Brundtland Commission gave us the concept of ‘sustain- resume testing ‘for the moment’. The other nuclear able development’ and the more recent International Com- weapon states are also reportedly modernizing their mission on Intervention and State Sovereignty—sponsored nuclear weapons and continue research and development by our host country Canada—yielded the concept of ‘the with a view to developing new generations of weapons. responsibility to protect’ we could also establish a com- The new salience being given to nuclear weapons takes mission to analyze the problems of multilateral disarma- place in a context of resurgent militarism as global mili- ment and prescribe solutions. I have therefore proposed tary expenditure reaches the heights of the Cold War years since April 2002, an International Commission on with the USA clearly in the lead. The unilateral abrogation Weapons of Mass Destruction to be launched with senior of the ABM Treaty in order to clear the way for the devel- political figures of influence and outstanding experts to opment and eventual deployment of ballistic missile examine the current state of affairs and recommend mea- defence systems will also involve huge investments for a sures to break out of this situation. I am delighted that the programme that is of doubtful value especially with the Government of Sweden has on 3 July this year announced asymmetric warfare strategy of terrorist groups and the the establishment of such a Commission to be chaired by acknowledged vulnerability of the system. The distinction Dr. Hans Blix whose luminous integrity, unquestioned between offensive and defensive military doctrines is expertise and rich experience equip him well for the task becoming blurred. Doctrines which involve the pre-emp- ahead. We await further details about the Commission to tive use of a weapon of mass destruction institutionalize be made available in the autumn. Some argue that the dis- violence. The distinction between the civilized world bas- armament norms created after World War II are no longer ing its actions on law and reason and the world of the ter- valid in a changed global situation although they propose

48 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference nothing to replace these norms. A global order is essential Apart from the establishment of an International Com- especially in the context of globalization. We cannot mission the international community has a tool kit avail- regress to anarchy or a situation where the most powerful able to it for immediate action. For example, the Board of dictate the rules. If we need to refashion or adapt norms or Governors of the IAEA can begin, as it has done with Iran, create fresh norms we must do so as a global community to demand that all states that plan to have nuclear power seeking the co-operation of all. projects for peaceful purposes must sign the Additional The Commission that I have advocated must have a Protocol to widen the agency’s verification potential in broader mandate than nuclear weapons which was the their countries. The Article IV provision in the NPT for Canberra Commission’s mandate. Today chemical and bio- the peaceful uses of nuclear energy cannot be read as an logical weapons, despite being the subject of Conventions absolute entitlement. It is an incentive and should have totally banning their production and use, have different been more generously implemented by developed coun- levels of verification. The new threat of terrorism has tries to fund non-power projects in areas like medicine and enhanced the danger of the actual use of these weapons agriculture. For nuclear power projects, given the thin line while the lack of universality in the two legal regimes gov- separating peaceful and non-peaceful uses of nuclear erning these weapons is also worrisome. Civil defence pro- energy and the fact that existing arrangements to grammes are increasingly preoccupied with the likely use of safeguard declared facilities have proved inadequate, it is these weapons. The lethality of nuclear weapons in com- reasonable for additional measures to be taken as a confi- parison to chemical and biological weapons is well estab- dence building measure internationally. Equally more lished. However, for the purposes of a Commission we do money can be pledged for non-power uses in the same way not need to establish a hierarchy of weapons as long as we as the G8 pledged $20 billion for Co-operative Threat treat all WMD in one category because of their common Reduction measures last year. Thus the signature of the threat to humankind, their indiscriminate nature and our Additional Protocol, hitherto a voluntary measure, will be need to ensure the survival of the human race. The collapse deemed to be a pre-requisite for the supply of nuclear pro- of the seven year process to develop a Protocol to jects, fuel and other assistance. strengthen the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention There are other measures open to the international (BWC) leaves the BWC without any effective verification community in the nuclear area. Strategic nuclear weapons mechanisms. In addition the mandate of the proposed remain an important area for action by the nuclear Commission must include both the disarmament dimen- weapon states. Equally important, if not more so, is the sion and the proliferation aspect. To focus on one to the question of sub-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons exclusion of the other would cause a major problem for the which must be addressed urgently. While the entry into credibility of the Commission. The majority of the interna- force of the CTBT remains dependent on the political will tional community belongs to the NPT, the BWC and the of the USA we can legitimately expect India and Pakistan, CWC and would need to be convinced of the political who promised to do so in 1998, to sign the CTBT as a first objectivity of the Commission. The dangers of terrorist step and as evidence of responsible behaviour. On a FMT uses of WMD must also feature prominently in the man- while the CD remains deadlocked it is important that date of the Commission. A carefully composed Commis- informal discussions commence among the 8 nuclear sion with due regard to political and geographical diversity weapon capable countries so that when negotiations in the and gender balance supported if possible by a panel of CD do begin they will have a basis to build on. Another experts, could over a period of time develop a set of innov- measure that is now being recognized is the need for more ative and far-reaching recommendations that could get us funding for the IAEA and the OPCW to conduct their ver- all out of the present rut. I am personally aware that UN ification responsibilities as well as to take special measures Secretary-General Kofi Annan supports the proposal in against terrorist uses of WMD. The strengthening of the principle and would be ready to have the Commission pre- Convention for the Physical Protection of Nuclear Mater- sent its report to him in the same way that the International ial, greater circumspection in the transport of nuclear Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty did. material and the multilateralisation of the Co-operative This could have influential policy implications. Threat Reduction programme are among other measures

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 49 53rd Pugwash Conference that can be taken without delay. United Nations but they require the combined In the chemical weapons area, the OPCW under its commitment and resources of the entire global community energetic new leadership and with strong US support now for the results to be seen. must prove that its unique verification powers under the CWC can in fact be implemented. This would instill confi- The Role of the Scientist dence in verification procedures and in disarmament It is in this context that the role of the scientist in terms of treaties amidst the propaganda about the virtues of ‘paper- the Russell-Einstein Manifesto assumes great importance. less disarmament’ and the dangers of placing too much The urgent need for a code of ethics to govern scientists faith in treaties. Countries like the Russian Federation working in the defence sectors in all countries cannot be with genuine financial difficulties in fulfilling their treaty overemphasized. The inherent ambiguities in dual use obligation to destroy chemical weapons will need to be technology are of course difficult and complex. Despite assisted. In the biological weapons area the agreement this or precisely because of this, a code of ethics and a sys- reached at the resumed BWC Review Conference in 2002 tem of mentoring younger scientists can help to ensure augurs well for the prospects of national legislation imple- moral clarity where legal precision may be difficult to menting the BWC and for the eventual criminalization of achieve. Research and Development programmes in the the violation of the BWC under domestic laws. Several weapon industry have to depend on scientists. As long as other areas will be explored in the three annual meetings the right to self defence remains guaranteed by Article 51 that will take place before the next Review Conference of the UN Charter and the provisions for the collective and this is a healthy sign of a multilateral process at work. defence of international peace and security can be The salvaging of the BWC Review Conference is itself exercised by the Security Council under Chapter VII of the an illustration of how multilateral disarmament diplomacy Charter we will have armies and we will have weapons can be kept alive. It is no secret that creative diplomacy by which nations will seek to modernize. A weapon-free the European Union helped to forge a compromise which world is therefore a Utopian ideal which the scientist can- the US tacitly accepted and the NAM acquiesced in out of not expect any more than others. However all of us can a realization that it was the best result that could be legitimately expect a lower reliance on weapon based secu- obtained in the circumstances. We need more of these rity given its obvious limitations in comparison to the bridge-building exercises across political groups if multi- more durable human security that sustainable human lateralism in disarmament is to remain robust and produc- development can achieve through non-military means. We tive. Group solidarity is understandable but in can demand that lower levels of arms be achieved to circumstances where total failure is so self-evidently assure security. Thus the pressure from military-industrial destructive of the multilateral process, individual diplo- complexes throughout the world for more resources for mats with stature and credibility as well as individual weapons development must be resisted by scientists. The countries with broad acceptance must activate themselves latest Yearbook released by the prestigious Stockholm in the search for compromises. The approach that suggests International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that that nothing can be accomplished until political circum- global military expenditure is running at $128 per capita stances are more propitious is essentially myopic and ulti- after the acceleration we witnessed globally in 2002 osten- mately harmful to the cause of disarmament. sibly because of 9/11. While the USA accounts for 43% of A long-term strategy that was identified in the UN Sec- global military expenditure collectively USA, Japan, UK, retary-General’s Advisory Board for Disarmament Matters France and China total 62% of what the world spends on was the need for disarmament and non-proliferation edu- arms. The statistics quoted for 2001 reveals interesting cation to ensure an informed public opinion especially in regional variations in military spending with the Middle the current context of indifference. This led to a General East (6.3%), North America (3%) and Central and East- Assembly mandated expert study of the subject and a ern Europe (2.7%) above the global average of 2.3% report with a number of many useful recommendations while Latin America (1.3%), Africa (2.1%), Asia (1.6%) endorsed by the General Assembly in 2002. These recom- and Western Europe ( 1.9%). While political tensions mendations are in the process of being implemented by the undoubtedly contribute towards these figures scientists

50 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference engaged in R&D can play a decisive role in rejecting mili- intelligence agencies do not divulge their high resolution tary solutions to political disputes. We shall never achieve imagery even to the UN, commercially available imagery the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations has enabled NGOs like the Federation of American Scien- at current levels of military expenditure. tists and others to monitor disarmament related develop- Existing treaties like the NPT, CWC and BWC ments and inform the general public of their findings. together with political commitments solemnly made in the Greater availability to the public of high resolution satel- final documents of conferences make it abundantly clear lite imagery and improvements in the quality and the read- that all states are obliged to achieve the total elimination ing of this imagery will make the detection of clandestine of WMD. We are thus faced with the threat of burgeoning programmes by both states and terrorist group more conventional weapons and the possible development of likely. It will also make for a better informed public at a new types of weapons including those based on new physi- time when civil liberties are being curtailed and cal principles. Here the need for a code of ethics becomes transparency sacrificed in the campaign against terrorism. vital for application across national boundaries. It will The benefits also include greater confidence in the verifia- prohibit scientists from engaging in any activities that con- bility of disarmament agreements and greater confidence travene existing treaties and conventions in the arms limi- that cheats do not get away with their bad faith actions. tation and disarmament field. Where new weapons or Other verification devices and aids could be invented and refinements of existing weapon technologies are contem- popularized as a confidence-building infrastructure to the plated the principles of humanitarian law and the protec- web of treaties and conventions that restrain the unbridled tion of civilians must be the guideline. National scientific pursuit of weapon development. Radar and early warning bodies such as Academies of Sciences and international systems are also technological areas by which conflicts can scientific organizations must take responsibility for har- be prevented. Their potential has to be exploited through monizing codes of ethics and for their implementation. If a the collective work of scientists. A Canadian proposal for plaint is filed against a scientist for violating the code of a peacekeeping satellite—PAXSAT—remains ethics an inquiry must be instituted and if the verdict is unimplemented for lack of funds while billions of dollars guilty the withdrawal of professional membership and are spent on new weapons. Scientists can be at the fore- recognition must follow. It is only by maintaining the front of public campaigns demanding more resources for highest standards that we can ensure that scientists do not peaceful research to ensure a safer and better world. allow their skills to be subverted or exploited. Where sci- Finally there is the task of education in the disarma- entists, especially those in dictatorships, have been ment and proliferation area to which I have referred ear- coerced, whistle-blowing should be encouraged within the lier. The dangers of the arms buildup and of proliferation code of ethics as part of our common responsibility to pro- can best be explained to younger generations by the scien- tect humanity. With the functioning of the International tific community in terms that are clear and irrefutable. It is Criminal Court it would follow automatically that any an investment in our future. It is a responsibility they have scientist found guilty would automatically be struck off to their fellow human beings. In the words of the Russell- professional rolls and be disqualified from pursuing his or Einstein Manifesto “Remember your humanity”. her scientific career. Verification technology is an area where a great deal of Jayantha Dhanapala is a former United Nations Under- good work has already been accomplished. The state of Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs and a former the art technology installed in Vienna and other parts of Ambassador of Sri Lanka the world by the Provisional Technical Secretariat of the CTBT and IAEA’s technical equipment and expertise in implementing safeguards agreements are some outstand- ing examples. More needs to be done in order to remain several steps ahead of violators of treaties and to detect clandestine programmes. Satellite imagery has been devel- oped to a remarkable level of accuracy. Although national

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 51 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

REPORT OF THE SECRETARY GENERAL

ment and the elimination of WMDs irreversibility applied to nuclear dis- Paolo Cotta-Ramusino are concerned, is far from armament; diminishing the role of Secretary General reassuring—just as the status of con- nuclear weapons in security policies; flicts and hostilities, particularly in and the achievement and hroughout its 46 years of regions where nuclear weapons or maintenance of a nuclear weapons- existence, the main goal of other WMDs are present, is also far free world. Most of these steps have Pugwash has been the elimi- T from reassuring. Much of our activi- been dismissed since 2000. nation of all nuclear weapons and, ties of the last year has been devel- more generally, of all weapons of These are difficult moments for the oped in this very critical mass destruction which have brought arms control regime: environment. the risk of annihilation to mankind. • It has been shown that treaties such Scientists (including those who Nuclear weapons, nuclear as the ABM can be disposed of worked on these instruments of disarmament and proliferation when no longer needed; destruction), policy makers, and mili- Let us recall that the 2000 NPT • New treaties present a very weak tary people, as well as those actively review conference concluded with the idea of disarmament: the Moscow involved in supporting approval of 13 “immediate” steps for Treaty projects 1700-2200 strategic disarmament—people of different systematic and progressive efforts to (only) warheads per party by 2012; nationalities and political opinions— implement article 6 of the NPT, that • There is little limitation to nuclear have been brought together over the mandates the nuclear weapons states testing, since we do not have any years for the purpose of seeking ways “to pursue negotiations in good faith foreseeable date for entry into force of controlling and eliminating the on effective measures relating to ces- of CTBT; most deadly weapons and promoting sation of the nuclear arms race at an cooperation and peace. After the end • We do not have any instrument of early date and to nuclear of the Cold War, many of the prob- verification for the BWC. disarmament.” lems related to nuclear weapons and These steps included: entry into Moreover, there is a newly WMD did change, but the weapons force of the Comprehensive Test Ban proclaimed utility of nuclear themselves and the relevant risks did Treaty (CTBT); the banning of the weapons: not disappear. In the last period, the production of fissile material; the • New (smaller) nuclear weapons are issues related to nuclear weapons and unequivocal undertaking by nuclear needed (the USA); more generally to WMDs have in fact weapons states to accomplish the been at the core of many political ini- • In its National Strategy to combat total elimination of nuclear arsenals; tiatives, military interventions and WMD, the “US will continue to the preservation and strengthening of planning, and decisions of various make clear that it reserves the right the (now defunct) ABM treaty; the nature on the international scene, but to respond with overwhelming reduction of non-strategic warheads, unfortunately most of these actions force—including resorting to all its the reduction of the operational sta- and decisions were made in options—to the use of WMD tus of nuclear weapons and increased directions that many of us regret. The against the US, its forces abroad, transparency; the principle of overall situation, as far as disarma- and its friends and allies”;

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• The lack of progress in to Iraq, shows that being closer to and Pakistan (both nuclear-armed) disarmament affects all nuclear nuclear capability does not neces- have several times brought both power states: their arsenals remain sarily imply being subject to a countries to the verge of conflict. unchanged. And these states con- stronger pressure. There is high tension in North-East tinue to consider their nuclear arse- Asia, where a possible new nuclear To quote the very candid statement nals as an essential instrument of actor is present. And the large by CIA Director George Tenet (Feb- their military (and not only Israeli nuclear arsenal is a continu- ruary 2003): military) policy. ous reminder that any conflict in The security concerns of non-nuclear We have entered a new world of pro- the Middle East may very well states have also increased: liferation…. This is taking place side become nuclear. • There is an abundance of fissile • There is no security guarantee for by side with the continued weakening material available worldwide, and non-nuclear-weapon states and, in of the International non-proliferation its disposal is progressing slowly fact, there is even talk about possi- consensus. Control regimes like the and with limited resources. There is ble preventive attacks against NPT are being battered by develop- still a very serious concern that WMD assets before these weapons ments such as North Korea’s with- some fissile material may be are used; drawal from the NPT and its open repudiation of other agreements. The acquired by nuclear-proliferating • We witnessed the instrumental use example of new nuclear states that countries or seized illegally by sub- of the need to fight WMD as a jus- seem able to deter threats from more national groups. If one were to tification for military intervention powerful states simply by brandish- have available a sufficient amount aimed at regime changing; ing nuclear weapons, will resonate of fissile material, then building a • We witnessed the weakening of deeply among other countries that rudimentary nuclear weapon for international institutions, including want to enter the nuclear weapons terrorist use would be a very easy those which should oversee the club. Demand creates the market. task. implementation of the NPT and the The desire for nuclear weapons is on The war on Iraq control of nuclear activities. The the upsurge….. ..The domino theory war on Iraq was based on the idea of the 21st century may well be The war on Iraq was motivated in that international institutions could nuclear. part by the claimed need to combat not be trusted. WMD. The activities of the interna- tional inspectors in the country were There is the impression that those The risk of nuclear war halted by the decision of the US to responsible for nuclear proliferation The end of the Cold War certainly intervene militarily no matter what get away with it: did significantly reduce the risk of the result of the inspections. The US nuclear conflicts. But this risk is far • Nuclear proliferation did take place decision was based on what soon from being eliminated. significantly, and the consequences appeared to be false claims of Iraqi • The nuclear weapons of the two for the states involved were man- activities to acquire nuclear weapons, former antagonist superpowers are ageable. India and Pakistan exaggerated claims about its CBW still targeted at each other, and a acquired good-sized nuclear arse- capabilities, and unproven connec- significant part of them are still nals, and pressures against them tions with the international terrorists kept on high-alert status, so that (sanctions) did not last long. Israel of Al-Quaeda. today we still have the spectre of of course gets away with its unde- Even though the government of nuclear war by mistake or miscal- clared nuclear status due to its so- Saddam Hussein will be hardly culation. called exceptional situation; missed, the use of the motivation to • New nuclear states are in situations • Even a comparison between the combat WMD as a justification for a where the risk of conventional con- treatment reserved to countries that military intervention which is in real- flict and nuclear escalation is signif- may work for nuclear weapons and ity otherwise motivated, is objectively icant. The relations between India

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actions that need to be compared on the basis of actual results. But for other nations and peoples of the world, the alternative is between hav- ing the right to influence world affairs or being merely passive sub- jects. Moreover, it is particularly ironic when unilateral initiatives are imposed on the rest of the world with the proclaimed goal of spreading democracy.

Pugwash activities in the past year Pugwash has been working for 46 years towards the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons and other WMD. For those 46 years Pugwash has been Paolo Cotta-Ramusino and Foreign Minister Bill Graham promoting dialogue between coun- tries on opposite fronts, even when weakening the international consen- bated the already tense relations dialogue was most difficult. The end sus to eradicate such weapons. If the between the west and the Arab/Mus- of the Cold War represented a dra- elimination of WMD is used as a lim world. Many Muslims feel that matic change in that Russia and the false excuse for a war, the credibility they are the target of an international US were no longer facing each other of the fight against WMD is put campaign that depicts them as, de as adversaries. But other countries under strain. facto, the main source of with smaller nuclear arsenals Moreover, the war on Iraq high- international terrorism. The confront each other and, as always lighted other important problems. sentiment in many Muslim countries with nuclear weapons, there is the First, the dramatic situation in Iraq is that Muslims are on the losing/ risk that there may be a shift from after the conquest of Baghdad has oppressed side in the international tensions and hostility to conventional demonstrated up to now that there is political arena. Accusations that conflict and to nuclear escalation a crucial difference between winning Muslim countries harbor the goal of (whether planned or inadvertent). a war militarily and being able to put acquiring WMD is juxtaposed with This is the case with India and Pak- in motion all the necessary mecha- the fact that the West and Israel istan, as mentioned before. Pugwash, nisms to reconstruct a country, eco- openly possess such weapons and which has eminent members from nomically, politically and socially. have no intention of giving them up. both India and Pakistan, has been The issue of reconstruction, of secur- Thirdly, the war on Iraq has very active during the last year in ing necessary international guaran- brought to international public atten- promoting analyses, offering sugges- tees and contributions, and of imple- tion a basic question: is the will of tions for the resumption of the dia- menting the necessary steps to one nation alone the basis for the logue (at any level) in the Indian sub- democratize the country (hardly the new international order? And what is continent, and questioning various semi-spontaneous phenomenon, with the role of existing international insti- aspects of nuclear policies and strate- its domino effect on neighboring tutions? The controversy between gies that are of particular concern countries, that was promised in some unilateral vs. multilateral initiatives since they contribute to making pre-war fairy tales) will be issues that from the point of view of the only nuclear confrontation more likely.. remain with us for a while. existing superpower may be one of a There are of course many difficult Secondly, the war on Iraq exacer- choice between two courses of unresolved issues which are at the

54 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference core of the confrontation in the between Iran and other countries prevent aggressive behavior in space, Indian subcontinent. The issue of (including western countries). In ref- and to prevent dangers to the scien- Kashmir is one of the most difficult. erence to allegations about plans for tific and technological developments Pugwash promoted in the past year developing military nuclear capabili- that require the use of space. It means and will do so in the future a frank ties in Iran, Pugwash welcomes the to limit anti-satellite activities and the discussion about Kashmir and other prospect that Iran may sign the IAEA spread of ballistic missile defense. It issues and will cooperate with other additional protocol and is very much means to avoid the spread of activi- forces in the promotion of dialogue interested in working to promote this ties that are dangerous from many and stability in the subcontinent. important development. points of view, ranging from the risk Another critical region is the Mid- North Korea and Iran are coun- of polluting space with increased dle East, where nuclear weapons are tries that in different frameworks debris to the risks associated to desta- also present and the risk of nuclear have been mentioned as countries bilizing current useful military proliferation is significant. Having with potential or actual nuclear pro- activities. been involved in the region for a long grams. Avoiding a further spread of Another important activity con- time, Pugwash in the past year has nuclear weapons is one of our funda- ducted by Pugwash over the years been focused on the idea of promot- mental objectives. But we need to has been the continuous monitoring ing a stable dialogue on security understand the security needs of of arms control activities related to aspects in the whole middle eastern those countries that are thinking chemical and biological weapons. area. This means not only Israeli and about acquiring a nuclear weapon Two workshops are held annually on Palestinians, but the Arab and non- capability. If we want to prevent these issues which directly affect the Arab countries of the Middle East. nuclear proliferation, then a climate work that is being done by the inter- The Arab (Saudi) plan for the estab- of cooperation needs to be national institutions that deal with lishment of normal relations between established. Military actions to chemical and biological weapons, by countries of the Middle East was the enforce counter-proliferation are nei- providing analyses, proposals and by subject of a specific workshop in ther effective nor just. Pugwash has a promoting dialogue. Amman. The Arab plan is the first standing program for cooperation Since 2001, Pugwash has been significant recognition by all the and dialogue in Northeast Asia that also active in seeking to promote Arab states (with no exceptions) of developed slowly in the last year for understanding of the various aspects the right of Israel to exist in peace various reasons (SARS included). But of the new evolution of terrorism. inside the 1967 border, together with we are very much committed to This Pugwash interest, I would say the Palestinian State. It is an impor- pushing forward this program in the with particular emphasis, also tant element in the future peace coming year. extends to the consequences of the architecture of the Middle East that We have to acknowledge that the present antiterrorist campaign (the has not received enough attention structure of arms control is in crisis. so called “war against terror”). We and recognition. The goal of a Helping to promote the arms control want to understand how much the nuclear weapons-free zone in the and disarmament process in all areas present anti-terrorist policies affect Middle East is also very important, where this is more feasible and where human rights worldwide and the both in general and for Pugwash. there is hope of obtaining results is mutual understanding of cultures and This can be attained only in a general an important task to which Pugwash peoples, and also how such policies framework of significantly reduced is fully committed. The idea of pre- in reality affect the evolution of ter- confrontation in the Middle East, venting the weaponization of space is rorist activities. As an example, it is and the Arab plan is an important one such endeavor. It is a goal where obvious that invading a country with tool for that goal. international cooperation can likely the reported goal of eliminating the Iran is a vitally important country be achieved and which could attract risk of terrorism, and then not effec- in the Middle East and Pugwash has the attention of the public opinion. tively carrying on its reconstruction, been active in promoting dialogue Non-weaponizing space means to is most likely to backfire in term of

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 55 53rd Pugwash Conference terrorist activities. countries refuse to proceed in the issues Pugwash has started an initia- One of the risks to which same direction. To this end, Pugwash tive for dialogue in Paris which will Pugwash has been very active in call- organized a workshop on the feasibil- continue in the future. ing the attention of public opinion ity of No First Use, and participants has been the risk associated with a discussed how declarations of No Summary possible terrorist use of WMD in gen- First Use can be part of a general In conclusion, Pugwash is a small but eral, and of nuclear weapons in par- awareness that nuclear weapons are very active community, which is ticular. The Pugwash approach has totally ineffective in addressing con- spread over all the continents. We are focused on the fact that, in order to crete military and political problems truly an international NGO, with a prevent nuclear terrorism, one imme- and in fact serve no other role than in variety of interests and a variety of diate goal is to effectively control and preventing others to use nuclear approaches. We are very much aware dispose of all the fissile material that weapons first. This approach to that we were born as a community of comes from the dismantling of nuclear weapons, which is in fact a natural scientists, concerned about nuclear weapons and from other mil- time-honored approach, is very much their social responsibility, but we are itary and civilian activities. If the at odds with present trends in which happy that the evolution of the last nuclear powers want to help to the idea is to build new types of 46 years has brought more and more reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism, (smaller) nuclear weapons for tactical political scientists, diplomats, policy they do not need to keep their purposes and to think of resuming makers, and military experts into the nuclear arsenals intact, as they are nuclear testing. Pugwash community. Thus, our doing now. Nuclear weapons are The goal of eliminating nuclear approaches are diverse and concern irrelevant to preventing nuclear ter- weapons brings to mind the general many different things, as the list of rorism. What matters is that no problem of the social responsibility topics addressed in the last year (and group (either a sub-national group or of scientists and the more general eth- before) shows. But we are very con- a critical nation) should have access ical problems which are associated scious that the risk of nuclear annihi- to uncontrolled fissile material. In with many types of scientific activity. lation, the risk of war, and the need this sense Pugwash has been promot- Pugwash began as a group of to prevent war with dialogue and the ing various initiatives to accelerate (mainly) physicists who were promotion of cooperation, are a the disposal of the most dangerous of concerned about their responsibility common denominator for all the all fissile materials, Highly Enriched in bringing to life the risk of nuclear members of the Pugwash community. Uranium (HEU). One of these initia- annihilation. Today, other risks have On this common denominator we tives has been supported by the been brought to life by scientists in built our activities in the last year and Swedish Foreign Ministry, which many areas, most obviously in biol- we will continue doing so for the organized a case study analyzing a ogy and biotechnology. On these foreseeable future. possible European role in the disposal of excess Russian HEU. One of the fundamental goals of Pugwash has been, since its founda- tion, the elimination of all nuclear weapons. In this moment we feel that Pugwash is one of the few voices that are still demanding nuclear disarma- ment and the full implementation of article 6 of the NPT. It is ineffective and unjust to demand that smaller countries give up their nuclear options when the more powerful

56 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

PUBLIC FORUM The Nuclear Issue: Pugwash and the Bush Policies

“You are either with us or against us”. This was initially Sir Joseph Rotblat applied to the campaign against al-Qaeda, but it puts all President Emeritus, Pugwash Conferences those who do not fully agree with the Bush policies into the category of villains. There are many, perhaps a major- his paper is mainly concerned ity in the world, who are strongly against terrorists, and with the nuclear issue, specifi- ready to join in actions against them, but are not happy Tcally with the dangers to the with the Bush policies. These policies are seen by many world that may arise from the nuclear outside the United States as aiming at establishing a US policies of the George W. Bush Admin- hegemony in the world, and treating international under- istration. But in order to put these takings with contempt, to be adhered to only if they suit policies into a proper perspective, I have to start with the interest of the United States. observations on the general doctrines and strategies of this What I find so repugnant about these policies is their Administration. blatant hypocrisy. The USA proclaims itself as the cham- I should declare, from the start, that I am strongly criti- pion of democracy in the world, while actually imposing cal of the present US Administration in its conduct of its will in a dictatorial manner. It is supposed to uphold world affairs. In the highly charged political climate of the the rules of law, yet violates legal commitments under recent months—largely related to the Iraq debacle—any- international treaties. It castigates members of the United one criticizing the Bush Administration has immediately Nations for exercising their rights under existing rules but been branded as anti-American, and placed in the defen- takes military action against a member state without the sive position of having to begin with a statement that one authority of the United Nations. is not anti-American. A central criticism of the United Nations made by the So let me say this clearly: I am not anti-American. On Bush team is that it is ineffective, a useless and enfeebled the contrary, I submit that it is the policies of the current organ, incapable of taking decisive action. This sort of Administration that should be called anti-American, criticism has traditionally been leveled at democracies by because—in my opinion—they do no represent the views totalitarian regimes. Long discussions and protracted of the majority of the American people. I am convinced negotiations are an inherent feature of a democratic sys- that these policies would not have been pursued if Al Gore tem, in which the needs and aspirations of many groups or had won the election in 2000. You will remember that— nations have to be reconciled in a peaceful manner. The even with the distraction of Ralph Nader—Al Gore had a Bush Administration has no truck with such approaches, majority in the national vote, and it was only through even though it professes to champion democracy. some questionable manoevres that he was deprived of the In my view, such policies are unacceptable in a civilized Presidency. It seems to me very unlikely that, had he been society because in the long run, they would spell the ruin elected, Al Gore would have alienated so many to such an of civilization. extent. The pursuit of these policies was evident in the cam- It is important to note that the current polarization of paign against Iraq. The stated justification was to disarm the world is largely the consequence of the Bush slogan: Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, but others see it pri-

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 57 53rd Pugwash Conference marily as an attempt to increase the US influence in the The al-Qaeda attack of September 11 provided the Middle East. There is plenty of documentary evidence to opportunity for these policies to be put into practice. The support the thesis that the main reason for bringing down case for a Pax Americana had been set out, and its first the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq—and making similar stage was implemented in the war against Iraq. threats against Syria and Iran—was to change the political The prolonged squabbles over UN Resolutions and configuration in the Middle East so as to give the United inspections, aiming at giving legitimacy to the war, seem to States political, economic and military control of that have been just a charade, intended to create the impression region. that it was not the USA alone but a coalition that was The history of these endeavours, is now general knowl- involved in the anti-Iraq campaign. The decision to over- edge, but I want to recall some salient points. throw the Saddam Hussein regime having been taken Even during the Cold War years, various right wing much earlier, it was only the time for its implementation groups in the United States—who have become known as that had to be chosen. This was probably dictated not by neo-conservatives—advocated strong aggressive foreign the outcome of the Hans Blix inspections, but by the need policies. These groups had considerable sway during the to assemble the necessary military strength. Reagan Presidency, but is was after the end of the Cold The military strength of the USA is truly awesome. War—and the outcome of the first Gulf War, which they Since the end of the Cold War, the Americans have built saw as having left the business unfinished—that they up an enormous military potential. Making use of the lat- became really active. In the spring of 1992 a document est advances in science and the achievements in technol- was produced, called Defense Policy Guidance, which was ogy—and supported by budgets of astronomical dimen- stunning in the clarity and ambition of its vision of a new sions—the United States has become the greatest military US foreign and military policy. It called for US dominance power that ever existed; nearly exceeding in sophistication by preventing the rise of any potentially hostile power, and all other nations combined. Against this might, the Iraqi for a policy of pre-emptive military action against states army, with antiquated tanks and no air-power to provide suspected of developing weapons of mass destruction. The cover, did not stand a chance. document was written by two relatively unknown func- Of course, the fact that Saddam Hussein’s regime was tionaries in the Pentagon’s policy department. They were rotten, and was kept from falling apart entirely by the ter- Paul Wolfowitz and Lewis Libby; their boss at the time ror imposed by a small number of thugs, contributed to its was Dick Cheney, then Secretary for Defense. All three are rapid demise. The claim by Rumsfeld et al that Iraq posed now prominent members of the Bush Administration. a threat to other nations, including the United States, was In July 1996, the Institute for Advanced Strategic and just laughable. Political Studies issued a document entitled “A Clean Indeed, the official reason for the military attack on Break: a New Strategy for Securing the Realm”. The head Iraq—the removal of weapons of mass destruction—has of the Institute was Richard Perle—for years known as the proven to be completely indefensible, since no such Prince of Darkness, for his extreme views, and strong sup- weapons have so far been found, despite the intense search port of the Israel lobby. The document called on the then carried out by large groups of experts appointed by the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to adopt a USA. As time goes on, and the WMDs are not found, there radical change in policy, starting with a repudiation of the will be an attempt to play down the importance of finding Oslo Accords, and to be followed by a campaign to elimi- them, but this will not alter the fact that the war was nate Saddam Hussein and destabilize the governments of started on false premises. Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. All the same, it would be hypocritical for those of us In February 1998, Richard Perle wrote an Open Letter who were against the war not to rejoice over the downfall to President Clinton, demanding a full-scale drive for a of a tyrannical regime, and not to admit that this would regime change in Baghdad. It had 25 signatories, including not have come about so quickly without military interven- many who are now in the Bush Administration, e.g.: tion. But the price we paid for this is far too high: it has Donald Rumsfeld—now Defense Secretary, and Paul reinstated in world affairs the old maxim that the ends Wolfowitz—now Deputy Defense Secretary. justify the means.

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The events of the recent months are a severe setback to out from consideration another alternative to arms con- those who believe that morality and adherence to the rules trol, namely, nuclear disarmament. of law should be our guiding principles. For the time In Pugwash we faced, from the beginning, the dilemma being, the rule seems to be: might is right, and in submit- of the two approaches: arms control versus disarmament. ting to this rule, the governments of many countries may A few years ago we spent much time, in the Council and in be driven to adopt a pragmatic policy; they may be forced special workshops, discussing the pros and cons of the two to acknowledge that there is now a single superpower; approaches. they may feel obliged to accept the role of the United This dispute has now been brought to an end by the States as the world’s policeman. entry onto the scene of the new approach. Arms control is But this cannot be a permanent solution. Even if the now dead. But, as discussed earlier, the policy of the Bush Americans were less arrogant in pursuing that role than Administration, envisaging US world dominance, is unac- they are now, a system with a built-in inequality is bound ceptable. I submit that this leaves only one option for Pug- to be unstable. It is bound to create resentment, a resent- wash: to pursue nuclear disarmament. ment that will find expression in various ways, including The elimination of nuclear weapons has always been an increase in international terrorism. This in turn will the goal of Pugwash, following the call in the Russell-Ein- force the “policemen” to take countermeasures, which stein Manifesto. We have pursued this goal for moral rea- will make the inequality even more acute. Democracy in sons, because ethical issues have always played a major the world, as we know it today, would be ended. role in Pugwash: any use of nuclear weapons has been This is a possible scenario, but it need not happen. My seen as immoral. But we have also seen in our goals a main hope is that the opposition to it will come from basic purpose: survival. Any use of nuclear weapons within the United States itself. At present, Bush is very would carry the danger of escalation and a threat to our popular and carries a majority of public opinion: this is continued existence. the usual wave of patriotism which comes with a military But the use of nuclear weapons is explicitly victory, but it is already decreasing significantly. I believe contemplated in the policies of the Bush Administration. that the strong anti-war demonstrations that we saw ear- These policies have been promulgated in a number of lier are a true reflection of the views of the majority of the statements, most of them made during the last year. The American people. Somehow, I do not see the American following documents are of particular importance: people accepting the role assigned to them by the clique • Nuclear Posture Review. January, 2002 that has hijacked the Administration. Public opinion is • The National Security Strategy of the United States bound to turn when the dangers associated with the cur- of America. September, 2002 rent policies become apparent. My main worry is that in • National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass the meantime these dangers may lead to catastrophic Destruction. December 2002 results. The greatest dangers derive from the nuclear doc- • National Policy on Ballistic Missile Defense. May trines pursued by the Bush Administration. 2003 These new doctrines have been comprehensively These policies seem to have two aims: one, a defensive analysed by Steven Miller in a paper, “Skepticism strategy to make the USA invulnerable to an attack from Triumphant”, an updated version of a presentation he outside; the second, an offensive strategy, to threaten an made at the Pugwash conference in Agra last year. He con- unfriendly regime with military action, including the use trasts the views of the “Skeptics”, by which he means the of nuclear weapons, if it attempts to acquire WMDs for Bush Administration, against those of the arms itself. controllers. His conclusion is that arms control is dead. For the first purpose, the decision was made to give a This conclusion is probably correct, but is does not fol- high priority to missile defence. As a first step, the USA low from this that we have to accept fatalistically the new abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which had doctrines. Arms control and unilateral policies are not the been previously considered the bedrock of the arms con- only options. In his paper, Steven Miller was mainly con- trol system. A hugely increased budget has been provided cerned with contrasting these two, and therefore he left for a missile defence project, which is said to be essential

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in a world of potential threats from weapons of mass other nuclear weapon states to do the same. China would destruction. be almost certain to resume testing. After the US decision But it is in the offensive aspect that the biggest changes to develop ballistic missile defences, China feels vulnera- have occurred. The new Nuclear Posture Review spells out ble, and is likely to attempt to reduce its vulnerability by a strategy which incorporates nuclear capability into con- modernizing and enlarging its nuclear arsenal. An opinion ventional war planning. The previous doctrine of deter- is building up that: “China should realize that the present rence, by which the actual use of nuclear weapons was minimum nuclear arsenal is inadequate to meet the new seen as a last resort, when everything else had failed, has challenges, and therefore should greatly expand its nuclear been thrown overboard. In the new doctrine, nuclear force to the extent that it can be actually used in different weapons have become a standard part of military strategy; scenarios”. At present this is a minority view, but it may they would be used in a conflict just like any other explo- become significant should the USA resume testing. Other sives. This represents a major shift in the whole rationale states with nuclear weapons, such as India or Pakistan, for nuclear weapons. might use the window of opportunity opened by the USA The main reason for this change seems to be the fear to update their arsenals. The danger of a new nuclear arms that states seen as unfriendly to the USA may acquire race is real. weapons of mass destruction: “We will not permit the Another worry about the development of the new world’s most dangerous regimes and terrorists to threaten bomb is that it would blur the distinction between nuclear us with the world’s most destructive weapons”. and conventional weapons. The chief characteristic of a In this pursuit, the Bush Administration is prepared to nuclear weapon is its enormous destructive power, unique go very far, including pre-emptive strikes: “We must be even in comparison with current chemical or biological prepared to stop rogue states and their terrorist clients weaponry, also designated as weapons of mass before they are able to threaten or use weapons of mass destruction. This has resulted in a taboo on the use of destruction against the United States and our allies and nuclear weapons in combat, a taboo that has held out friends.” And it goes on: “To forestall or prevent such hos- since Nagasaki. But if at one end of the spectrum a nuclear tile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if neces- bomb can be manufactured which does not differ quanti- sary, act pre-emptively.” tatively from ordinary explosives, then the qualitative dif- The implementation of this policy has already begun. ference will also disappear; the nuclear threshold will be The United States is designing a new nuclear warhead of crossed, and nuclear weapons will gradually come to be low yield, but with a shape that would give it a very high seen as a tool of war, even though the danger they present penetrating power into concrete, the “robust nuclear earth to the existence of the human race will remain. penetrator”. It is intended to destroy bunkers with thick For the USA, the distinction between nuclear and con- concrete walls in which weapons of mass destruction may ventional weapons has already been eroded, as was made be stored, or enemy leaders may seek shelter. clear in the Nuclear Posture Review, but the situation has To enable this project to go ahead the US Senate has become even more threatening with the additional disposi- already decided to rescind the long-standing prohibition tion to act pre-emptively. on the development of low yield nuclear weapons. Other The danger of this policy can hardly be over-empha- types of warheads are also contemplated. sized. If the militarily mightiest country declares its readi- The new weapons will have to be tested. At present ness to carry out a pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons, there is a treaty prohibiting the testing of nuclear weapons others may soon follow. The Kashmir crisis, in May last (except in sub-critical assemblies), the Comprehensive Test year, is a stark warning of the reality of the nuclear peril. Ban Treaty, which the United States has signed but not rat- India’s declared policy is not to be the first to use ified. Given the contempt of the Bush Administration for nuclear weapons. But if the United States—whose nuclear international treaties, little excuse would be needed to policies are largely followed by India—makes a pre-emp- authorize the testing of the new weapon. Indeed, the need tive nuclear use part of its doctrine, this would give India to resume testing is now openly advocated. the legitimacy to similarly threaten pre-emptive action If the USA resumed testing, this would be a signal to against Pakistan. George Fernandes, India’s Minister for

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Defence, said recently: India had “a much better case to go encourages us to continue these activities; they may pre- for pre-emptive action against Pakistan than the United vent a regional crisis from getting out of control. States has in Iraq.” More likely perhaps is that Pakistan But it is the central issue that I am concerned about. A would carry this out first. year ago, in La Jolla, we have adopted the Goals of Pug- Taiwan presents another potential scenario for a pre- wash for the next five years. The relevant document states: emptive nuclear strike by the United States. Should the “Pugwash is strongly committed to the goal of abolishing Taiwan authorities decide to declare independence, this all nuclear weapons. It is imperative that Pugwash con- would inevitably result in an attempted military invasion stantly remind the international community of the by mainland China. The USA, which is committed to the immorality, illegality, and peril inherent in nuclear defence of Taiwan, may then opt for a pre-emptive strike. weapons, and to propose concrete steps towards their And we still have the problem of North Korea, elimination.” In the second year of the Quinquennium it is described by Bush as one of the “axis of evil”. Under the high time to take these steps. Bush dictum not to allow the possession of weapons of Any attempt to achieve our goals by persuading the mass destruction by any state considered to be hostile, Bush Administration to change its policies through logical North Korea will be called upon to close down all work persuasion, or by appealing to moral instincts, would be on nuclear weapons. It is by no means certain that Kim hopeless and a complete waste of time. But it may not be a Jong Il will submit to these demands, and a critical situa- waste of time if such an appeal is made to the general pub- tion may arise in that part of the world. lic. As I said earlier, hope lies in a change of public opin- A major worry in this respect are developments in ion, particularly in the United States, to rise in opposition Japan. So far Japan has been kept out of the nuclear to the current policies, and throw them out in the process weapons club by Article 9 of its constitution: usually employed in democratic countries, namely, in free “…the Japanese people forever renounce…the threat elections. Therefore, my suggestion is that the Pugwash or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” effort should be towards an acceleration of that process in However, partly at the urging of the USA, strong ten- a campaign to influence public opinion, a campaign based dencies are now appearing—with the backing of the Prime on principles of morality and equity. Minister, Junichiro Koizumi—to revise the constitution so Immorality in the use of nuclear weapons is taken for as to make it legal for Japan to become a nuclear-weapon granted, but this aspect is very seldom raised when calling state. for nuclear disarmament. We are told that a campaign Altogether, the aggressive policy of the United States, based on moral principles is a non-starter, and we are under the Bush Administration, has created a precarious afraid of appearing naïve, and divorced from reality. I see situation in world affairs, with a greatly increased danger in the use of this argument evidence that we have allowed of nuclear weapons being used in combat. ethical considerations to be ignored for far too long. We Moreover, if the use of nuclear weapons is made legal, are accused of not being realistic, when what we are trying it would preclude passing of laws to prevent the develop- to do is to prevent real dangers, the dangers that would ment of new types of weapons, with even greater destruc- result from the current policies of the Bush Administration. tive potential than current WMDs—a truly horrifying The public at large is ignorant about these dangers and prospect. Sir Martin Rees, the British Astronomer Royal, we urgently need a campaign of public education. gives civilization a 50/50 chance of surviving this century. The other basic principle is adherence to international Others believe that this is optimistic. law. It is a sine qua non of a civilized society that nations What should be the Pugwash stand on this matter? fulfil their legal obligations and respect international law. Does the new situation call for a corresponding change in World peace cannot be achieved without adherence to our activities? international treaties. Let me first state that I fully support the efforts made There is much deliberate obfuscation and brainwash- by the Secretary-General towards the resolution of local ing in this respect. Let me illustrate this with the example conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. His success in which happens to be at the heart of the problem, the prob- bringing together personalities from opposing camps lem of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

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Pugwash was very much involved in this treaty, in its I have emphasized the second sentence because it dis- earliest years, when we saw it as an important measure plays the complete reversal of the purpose of the NPT. towards the elimination of nuclear weapons. Let me recall The other newspaper—none other than The Times— the salient facts about the NPT, to which 98 percent of reports similarly: nations have subscribed. In accordance with the treaty, all “It [the NPT] was established to stop the spread of non-nuclear states that signed it undertook not to acquire nuclear weapons beyond the original declared nuclear nuclear weapons in any way. At the same time, the five powers of the US, China, Russia, the UK and France.” states which officially possessed those weapons—by virtue There is no mention of the obligation of the latter. of the fact that they had tested them by a certain date— We are being told all the time how dangerous nuclear undertook to get rid of theirs. The relevant Article VI reads: weapons are and that they must not be allowed to fall into “Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue the hands of undesirable elements or rogue regimes: negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to “Weapons of mass destruction … nuclear, biological, cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to and chemical—in the possession of hostile states and ter- nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and com- rorists, represent one of the greatest security challenges plete disarmament under strict and effective international facing the United States.” control.” What we are not being told is that these weapons are By signing and ratifying the NPT, the nuclear member just as dangerous in the possession of friendly nations. We states are legally committed to nuclear disarmament. The are not being reminded that—with the realization of these hawks in those states, in an attempt to retain nuclear dangers—even the United States has undertaken to get rid weapons, utilized an ambiguity in Article VI, which makes of its own nuclear arsenal. We are facing here a basic issue it appear that nuclear disarmament is linked with the in which the ethical and legal aspects are intertwined. The achievement of general and complete disarmament. But use of nuclear weapons is seen by the great majority of the NPT Review Conference—an official part of the people in the world as immoral, due to their indiscrimi- implementation of the NPT—at its session in 2000, nate nature and unprecedented destructive power. Their removed this ambiguity in a statement issued by all five possession—and therefore likely use—is thus equally nuclear weapons states. It contains the following: unacceptable, whether by “rogue” or benevolent regimes. “…an unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear-weapon The elimination of nuclear weapons has been the states to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear declared aim of the United Nations from the beginning, arsenals leading to nuclear disarmament to which all and resolutions to this effect are passed, year after year, by States Parties are committed under Article VI.” large majorities of the General Assembly. These This makes the situation perfectly clear. The Bush pol- resolutions are ignored by the nuclear weapon states, as icy, which is based on the continued existence (and use) of are all attempts to discuss the issue by the organ set up for nuclear weapons, is in direct contradiction to the legally this purpose, the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. binding NPT. There is a need to keep hammering home the point But the Bush Administration seems to have managed that America’s stand on the NPT issue is iniquitous. It has to convince the public that only a part of the NPT, the part signed and ratified an international treaty which commits that applies to the non-nuclear states, is valid, and that it to get rid of nuclear weapons, yet it is pursuing a policy therefore states which violate it—as Iran now stands which demands the indefinite retention of these weapons. accused of doing—must be punished for the transgression. We have to keep on highlighting the fundamental The part concerning the obligation of the nuclear states is inconsistency in the US policies. The USA must make a deliberately being obliterated. Let me cite two items which choice: if it wants to keep nuclear weapons, then it should recently appeared in British national newspapers: withdraw from the NPT (which would probably result in “At a meeting of the IAEA today, the US will urge it to a massive increase in the number of nuclear weapon declare Tehran in breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation states). Otherwise, it must abide by the terms of the NPT Treaty. The treaty seeks to confine nuclear weapons to and get rid of its nuclear arsenals. Tertium non datur. Russia, Britain, France, China and America.” There is no third way.

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I believe that a campaign to educate and influence pub- Moreover, thanks largely to the fantastic progress in lic opinion, centered on the issue of the NPT, would stand technology, our world is becoming more and more inter- a good chance of being successful. dependent, more and more transparent, more and more The task of influencing public opinion is far too big for interactive. Inherent in these developments is a set of an organization like Pugwash to undertake by itself. Col- agreements, ranging from confidence-building measures to laboration with other organizations would be essential. formal international treaties; from protection of the envi- This would go against our traditional modus vivendi; ronment to the clearance of mine fields; from Interpol to Puwash has often been accused—perhaps justifiably—of the International Criminal Court; from ensuring intellec- being an exclusive club. But even if our mode of work has tual property rights to the Declaration of Human Rights. been justified in the past, I believe that the time has come Respect for, and strict adherence to, the terms of interna- to open up. I am not advocating that Pugwash should tional agreements are at the basis of a civilized society. become a mass movement; what I am suggesting is that we Without this, anarchy and terrorism would reign, the very should be more willing to collaborate with other organiza- perils President Bush is allegedly committed to eradicate. tions in the sense of spearheading a large effort to provide While he intends to tackle this issue by military means, information to the general public. Pugwash is a movement we must strive to achieve it by peaceful means. While the of scientists, but the job of the scientist is not only to do Bush Administration plans to act unilaterally, we have original research; education is an essential element of it. to ensure that world security is entrusted to the United And this is in essence what I propose. Nations, the institution set up for this purpose. And we An initiative in this direction has already been started must link our respect for the law with strong moral by the British Pugwash Group. In setting up a “Nuclear principles. Weapons Awareness Project”, the British Pugwash Group Many of you are professional people, trained to look is collaborating with about a dozen other British organiza- at problems in a detached, realistic, non-sentimental tions, ranging from BASIC (the British American Security approach. But we are all, primarily, human beings, anx- Information Council) to MEDACT (Medical Action), from ious to provide security for our nearest and dearest, and CND to Greenpeace. An account of this Project is peace for fellow citizens of our nation and the world. We presented by John Finney in paper submitted to this Con- want to see a world in which relations between people and ference. I suggest that the Pugwash Council should take it between nations are based on compassion, not greed; on up and find ways to implement it on an international scale. generosity, not jealousy; on persuasion, not force; on Let me now conclude with some simple observations equity, not oppression. of a more general nature, but relevant to the problems I These are simple, some will say romantic, sentiments, have raised in this paper. but they are also realistic necessities. In a world armed I believe in the inherent goodness of Man. What would with weapons of mass destruction, the use of which might be the point of keeping the human species if this were not bring the whole of civilization to an end, we cannot afford true! But then our task must be to ensure that this belief a polarized community, with its inherent threat of military gains general acceptance. confrontations. In this technological age, a global, equi- We still conduct world affairs on the outdated princi- table community, to which we all belong as world citizens, ple that our survival demands being militarily strong. This has become a vital necessity. is a remnant of our early history, when Man had to resort to violence in order to survive or to ensure continuation of Sir Joseph Rotblat is co-recipient, with the Pugwash Confer- the species. It completely ignores the radical changes that ences, of the 1995 Nobel Peace Prize. A signatory of the Rus- have occurred as a result of the advances in science and technology, changes which make such a stand no longer sell-Einstein Manifesto in 1955 and one of the founders of necessary. If equitably distributed, our resources could be the Pugwash Conferences, he attended the first meeting in sufficient to meet the basic needs of the world population, Pugwash, Nova Scotia in July 1957, and later served as the despite its huge increase. organization’s President.

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 63 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

SELECT PAPERS

UN Peace Monitoring: tion and action, but the organization still gained a great deal of experience An Emerging Global Watch? in fact-finding and peacekeeping 1 Dr. A. Walter Dorn , Canadian Forces College operations. With the end of the Cold War another “evolutionary step” was Introduction: “An Eye That Does eral relatively powerless to monitor taken. Not Slumber” situations of conflict. Still it was a The United Nations now conducts The League of Nations ... should be bold experiment in international monitoring on an unprecedented the eye of the nations to keep watch organization that proved extremely scale and in new fields, covering an upon the common interest, an eye useful in the design of its successor. ever-growing range of security con- that does not slumber, an eye that is The advent of the United Nations cerns for both nations and individu- everywhere watchful and attentive. in 1945, at the end of the Second als. In addition to verifying peace —US President Woodrow Wilson, World War, was a major step in inter- agreements and documenting human Paris, 25 January 1919 national organization. The UN began rights abuses, the organization has dispatching increasingly ambitious been monitoring elections, tracking President Wilson articulated this missions to the field, with greater fre- arms shipments, identifying sanctions aspiration for a global watch at the quency and more functions than did busters, overseeing military and very dawn of international organiza- the League. Its many field operations, police forces, inspecting for weapons tion for peace, when the nations of offices and missions have served as of mass destruction, exposing terror- the world were recovering from the the organization’s “eyes and ears” in ists, warning of incipient crises, and throes of the First World War. The conflict areas. The UN Charter gathering evidence for international national leaders who had gathered in empowered the Secretary-General to criminal tribunals. Paris in 1919 to negotiate a peace bring concerns directly to the atten- It is appropriate that President were only partly committed to the tion of the Security Council, a role Woodrow Wilson, the League’s prin- idea of a new system of international that went well beyond the role speci- cipal founder who set out the initial rules and collective action. Nonethe- fied in the League Covenant. The Sec- plan for international organization, less they created the world’s first retary-General has, over time, should have given voice to such a far- international organization for peace, become not only a vital reaching vision for worldwide moni- the League of Nations. Though the “clearinghouse” of information from toring. The United Nations, as we League was a important step forward nations on the state of the world but shall see, is moving towards a global for international relations, it never also an important monitor of the watch to fulfill its growing realm of became the “everywhere watchful world’s conflict situations through responsibility. The UN is now the and attentive eye” that Wilson envi- his own representatives in the field. world’s chief information-gathering sioned. Its investigative bodies True, during the Cold War, the Com- instrument for actual or potential proved slow and cumbersome; its munist world, led by a veto-wielding threats to the peace. From the halting procedures for dispatching missions Soviet Union determined to maintain baby steps of the League, to the slow rudimentary and subject to veto by secrecy behind an iron curtain, held march of the UN during the Cold member states, and its Secretary-Gen- the UN back from much investiga- War, the world organization now

64 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference finds itself in a fast run as it tries to planes in no-fly zones or trespassing nological surveillance (e.g., using keep up with world events that affect into foreign airspace; uncovering night-vision and radar), as well as peace and security. With the end of clandestine arms shipments through more controversial activities such as the Cold War, the United Nations the cascade of arms brokers; catching deploying peacekeepers out of uni- began monitoring peace and conflict sanctions busters, especially groups form (briefly) and employing paid in ways that would have surprised selling illegal commodities that fuel informants from the local and pleased its originators, Wilson wars (e.g., “blood diamonds”); population.2 included. A decade and half after the revealing secret bank accounts and The 1990s also witnessed the cre- fall of the Berlin Wall and the bipolar exposing front companies of orga- ation of over a dozen missions of a world that it symoblized, it is worth- nized crime and terrorist groups; new type, called “political and peace- while to take stock of this progress. identifying forged documents that aid building missions,” deployed to the the illegal movement of people and field to monitor and assist with phys- Expanded Information-Gathering arms across borders; determining if ical reconstruction and social recon- The new and expanded monitoring national secret agents have violated ciliation in countries coming out of activities of the United Nations in international laws; exhuming the war and even to prevent conflicts in various countries make for a long bodies of persons killed by paramili- the first place.3 The Special Represen- and impressive list, including: track- tary groups; identifying deliberate tatives of the Secretary-General ing the distribution of humanitarian attacks against civilian targets; gath- (SRSGs), who work in trouble areas aid in combat zones; supervising the ering evidence for war-crimes trials; or on special issues and who are disarmament and demobilization of uncovering assassination plots before often in charge of peacekeeping oper- ex-combatants; monitoring elections; they hatch and warning of impending ations, currently number over thirty, monitoring and training police and violence. more than at any other time. military forces during reform This tremendous expansion of In the human rights field, the Spe- processes; following domestic court UN monitoring tasks is paralleled by cial Rapporteurs who report to the proceedings to verify that they are the creation of a host of new UN UN’s Human Rights Commission on conducted with due process; follow- bodies, offices and operations with specific countries or themes (types of ing and encouraging the growth of monitoring mandates. In peacekeep- rights violations) have multiplied, civil society; patrolling the borders ing, where international military and going from six in the 1980s to 17 in of states to prevent spill over from civilian personnel are deployed to the 1990s. In the first two years of aggressive neighbours; determining conflict areas to help keep or create the new millennium alone, five new responsibility for the initiation of peace, the number of operations saw posts of this type were added. In wars; delineating borders between a tenfold increase in the 1990s com- addition, the new position of High and within states; reviewing the pared to any previous decade. The Commissioner for Human Rights implementation of arms control thirty-five new operations in the one (UNHCHR), heading an office of the treaties, and many other novel decade is double the number created same name, was created in 1993. activities. in the previous 45 years of the orga- UN-sponsored Truth Commissions In addition to verifying and con- nization. Monitoring is a principal (or similarly named bodies) saw their firming positive, peace-promoting function in all peacekeeping opera- advent in the 1990s, first in Central activities, the UN must also carry out tions, and in most of them (observer America, then Africa and Asia. In monitoring to detect a host of illegal missions), monitoring is the principal Guatemala, for instance, a “Histori- or negative activities: observing function. While there are definite lim- cal Clarification Commission” was attacks and the movements of fight- its to information-gathering or “intel- created in 1994 on the principle that ers in combat zones; searching intru- ligence” activities in peacekeeping, the Guatemalan people had the sively for hidden weapons, including the 1990s saw an expansion in the “right to know the truth” concerning small arms, bio-weapons and nuclear use of overhead reconnaissance, acts of political violence and viola- bomb-making materials; tracking radio message interception, and tech- tions of human rights in their country

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 65 53rd Pugwash Conference for some thirty years. This was com- plemented by an ongoing mission to monitor human rights using in-coun- try fact-finding teams. Sanctions committees, with responsibilities to monitor the imple- mentation of specific sanctions imposed by the Security Council, have also proliferated. Only two were established prior to 1990 (for sanctions against Rhodesia and South Africa), while ten were created in the 1990s and two have already been established in the first two years of Sen. Douglas Roche, Sen. Landon Pearson, Geoffrey Pearson, and Walter Dorn the new millennium. These bodies are making increased use of expert pan- purposes, in particular to produce ban contained in the Chemical els and special monitoring nuclear weapons. In the 1990s, sev- Weapons Convention. Under its mechanisms, which have broken new eral new international verification “challenge inspection” procedure, ground in the realm of international bodies for arms control were estab- the OPCW is authorized to carry out investigation. The expert panels have lished. A sophisticated system for the inspections on an “any time, any published detailed documentary evi- detection of nuclear tests in all envi- site” basis upon request of a party. dence to identify and then “name and ronments (underwater, underground The 1972 Biological Weapons Con- shame” individuals, organizations and above ground) was developed vention, covering the third category and governments (including heads of and tested by the preparatory Com- of weapons of mass destruction, has state) caught violating Security Coun- prehensive Test Ban Treaty Organiza- no similar inspection system, though cil sanctions or not doing enough to tion (CTBTO). It employs an array of most states are in favour of finalizing catch sanctions-busters (or terrorists). advanced seismic, hydroacoustic, a verification protocol and instituting In addition to catching sanctions- infrasound and radionuclide a global monitoring and confidence- busters, the UN has tried on numer- technologies at stations around the building system. ous occasions to assess the impact of globe which feed information back to Under the 1997 Anti-Personnel sanctions to determine any unwanted headquarters at the Vienna Interna- Mines Treaty, the UN Secretary-Gen- effects that sanctions may create, tional Centre. eral is responsible for organizing fact- especially affecting innocent citizens. UN investigations of chemical finding missions, upon request, to Similarly, in the disarmament weapons use were first carried out in investigate allegations of non-compli- field, monitoring and inspection 1984 in Iran and Iraq by teams sent ance with the treaty. Also, the Secre- agencies have flourished in recent out by the Secretary-General, provid- tary-General receives annual reports years. For decades the only agency in ing conclusive evidence that Iraq had from parties on the measures they the UN system conducting on-site used chemical weapons extensively in have taken to implement the treaty, inspections was the International its war with Iran, in violation of its including the locations and quantities Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), head- treaty (Geneva Protocol) obligations. of any and all mines.4 Instead of cre- quartered in Vienna. This “nuclear The Organization for the Prohibition ating a new and costly organization watchdog” has been sending inspec- of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), to administer the treaty and perform tors to declared nuclear facilities in established in The Hague in 1996 as inspections, civil society was about 70 countries to verify that part of the UN system, conducts hun- entrusted with the task of monitoring nuclear material has not been dreds of inspections each year to ver- implementation of the ban. The diverted for unlawful or prohibited ify compliance with a comprehensive Landmine Monitor, created by the

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International Campaign to Ban Land- more responsibilities are given to the conflicts that are dealt with by the mines (ICBL), is a network of experts UN, new precedents are set, new UN. Other UN agencies and offices and activists who analyse reports lessons are learned and new practices provide telling details about the submitted by nations to the UN and are put in place. Certainly there have tremendous human toll of modern compare them with other data gath- been set-backs and misadventures conflict. ered in the field. The annual report, (some of them instructive), but the For instance, UNICEF tells us Landmine Monitor, provides exten- enormous growth of international that in the last decade of the 20th sive new information with frank and organization, from the League to the century, 2 million children were objective assessments of national post-Cold War UN is indisputable. killed, 6 million injured or compliance. This is a good demon- Still, many could correctly point out permanently disabled and 12 million stration of how civil society can be that the UN remains far from the left homeless because of conflict. In freer to make accusations of non- lofty ideals that guide it. addition, “conflict has orphaned or compliance than governmental orga- While the evolution applies pri- separated more than 1 million chil- nizations and can work well with marily to information gathering, to a dren from their families states”, progressive governments and the UN lesser extent a growth has taken place states UNICEF’s State of the World’s to uphold a treaty. A similar partner- in information analysis and dissemi- Children report for 2002.6 Even ship is developing around the small nation.5 more tragically, an estimated arms issue. 300,000 children were forced or Information Dissemination For decades, the UN has been the induced into combat in 2001. clearing-house for arms control Gathering information on this wide Yet another UN agency, the reports sent to it by governments, for range of targets and situations, United Nations High Commissioner instance, in accordance with the though an enormous challenge, is for Refugees (UNHCR), tells us that 1968 Outer Space Treaty and the only half the battle for the UN. The there are an estimated 35 million 1972 Biological Weapons Conven- organization then needs to analyse refugees and internally displaced peo- tion (and its review conference decla- the information and then disseminate ple (IDP) in the world7, about one for rations). At the request of the Gen- the conclusions, either in private every 160 persons on earth. About eral Assembly, the Secretary-General meetings, at informal or formal meet- 80 per cent are women and children, has also established voluntary regis- ings of bodies like the Security Coun- fleeing conflict or persecution. The ters of military expenditures (1980) cil, or at official or public meetings, number of people assisted by and of conventional arms (1992). For including the daily press conferences UNHCR has been about 21-22 mil- the latter, there is a surprisingly high of the spokesman of the Secretary- lion annually in the years 1998- number of submissions, typically 80- General. The UN has become a 2001.8 This figure includes12 million 90 states reporting annually on their major centre for information dissemi- refugees (55%), 0.9 million asylum possession of conventional weapons nation crucial to the world’s well seekers (4%), 0.8 million returned in seven major categories: battle being. The UN and its agencies pro- refugees (4%), 6 million internally tanks, armoured vehicles, large cali- vide us with many of the statistics displaced of concern to UNHCR bre artillery systems, combat aircraft, that paint a sobering picture of our (27%), 0.4 million returned IDPs attack helicopters, warships, missiles troubled world. (2%) and 1.7 million others of con- and missile launchers. Small arms are From various parts of the UN sys- cern (8%). Behind each statistic lie not included, but are the subject of a tem, we learn about conflicts that are millions of face and desperate human number of important UN and NGO raging around the world, some beings. Asia has the greatest number studies. There are international already making the front pages of of persons “of concern” to UNHCR, attempts to create a UN register for newspapers, others in long-ignored with nearly 8.5 million, followed by small arms as well. parts of the world. The annual Africa with 6.1 million and Europe This expansion of international Report of the Secretary-General usu- with 5.6 million people. Another UN monitoring has demonstrated that, as ally provides a survey and analysis of organization, the United Nations

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Relief and Works Agency for Pales- trade was absorbed by the developing all conclusion that small arms are not tine Refugees in the Near East world, which can ill afford the cost, in yet under proper regulatory control (UNRWA), keeps tracks of and terms of both finances and human in most parts of the world. assists the 3.8 million registered life.10 Finally we learn about the human Palestine refugees in Jordan, Small arms are the main killer in condition through the UNDP’s flag- Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the world, having caused millions of ship report, the Human Development the Gaza Strip. deaths in the past decade. In a 1999 Report. It is not only valuable for the The Food and Agricultural Orga- press release titled “the UN takes aim extensive statistics provided on devel- nization issues famine alerts, and the at small arms”11, UNICEF and the oping and developed nations, but UN Office for the Coordination of UN Department for Disarmament also in its path-breaking analysis of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issues Affairs report that small arms have these figures and the introduction of international appeals for help, con- caused more than 3 million deaths in new concepts (such as the terms taining telling details about the con- the past decade, with the vast major- “human development” and “human ditions in areas of complex emergen- ity of victims being civilians. security” themselves). The reports cies. The situation reports of UN and We also learn from UN reports of show an unfortunate, though logical governmental agencies, as well as hopeful signs of disarmament, espe- correlation between underdevelop- NGOs, are often posted in OCHA’s cially in countries coming out of con- ment and conflict. Of the 35 nations excellent website Reliefweb. Further- flict. Cambodia destroyed 15,000 listed under the category of “low more, OCHA developed its own weapons in public ceremonies in human development” in the Human news service under the motto of March and June 1999 alone. South Development Report 199914 about “bridging the information gap” for Africa has pledged to destroy all sur- half (18) have experienced civil war conflict areas of greatest need: plus small arms, including about or fought in international wars in the regions of Africa (West, East, Cen- 260,000 automatic rifles and past decade. If one includes nations tral, Great Lakes, Horn, South), Cen- hundreds of tons of ammunition. In with neighbours that have tral Asia and recently Iraq. The 1998, China undertook strong steps experienced such wars, the number reports, often with accompanying to confiscate illicit small arms, result- rises to a startling 33 of 35 states! photos, are filed under the name ing in the destruction of some The Need for Knowledge IRIN or the Integrated Regional 300,000 weapons.12 Information Network, which is a The most extensive international To carry out its many responsibilities, “UN humanitarian information unit” survey of firearm effects and regula- old and new, for international and within OCHA, funded mostly by tions was prepared for the UN’s human security, the UN requires national development agencies in Commission on Crime Prevention accurate and timely information. Europe, Australia and Canada. and Criminal Justice in 1998. The Finding itself in war zones and in the The UN also provides us with a “United Nations International Study midst of aggressors, the UN needs picture of the arms holdings and on Firearm Regulations”13 includes background information on the his- transfers. From its voluntary arms data and narratives from 69 Member tory and culture of the local powers register for major conventional arma- States on such issues as firearms- and personalities, as well as informa- ments, we learn that the US accounts related deaths and injuries, firearms tion on the current military and politi- for about half of the global trade in legislation and relevant initiatives in cal situation, including both the capa- these arms (tanks, planes, ships, and firearms regulation at the regional bilities and intensions of the parties. weapons of calibre larger than 100 and interregional levels. The Without such information, the UN mm) and the permanent five mem- researchers sought to ensure equitable places its military and civilian staff in bers of the Security Council account geographical representation of coun- the field at great risk. These risks can for well over four-fifths.9 More star- tries around the world but were ham- prove unacceptable, as witnessed with tling, perhaps, is the statistic that pered by lack of statistics for many. the truck-bombing of UN headquar- more than 68 per cent of the arms The later fact only supports the over- ters in Bagdad. With this information,

68 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference the UN can operate safer and be a humanitarian assistance, detailed to monitor the coalition’s actions to more effective power for peace. information about the locations and ensure they are strictly in accordance The various goals and roles of the needs of the affected populations, with their UN mandate and accord- UN can be conceptualized on a sim- and about supplies and delivery ing to the rules of international plified timeline of conflict, as in Fig- routes is required. Peacekeeping humanitarian law. ure 1. As the conflict begins, the UN involves constant patrols to monitor In war zones, where “truth is the will seek to prevent an escalation. the level of security in the area of first casualty of war”, there is a con- During the intensity of combat, the operation and identify potential haz- stant need for independent reporting. major UN goal is to mitigate the ards. Peacebuilding necessitates a Even warring parties spouting propa- severity of the conflict and the impact wide range of economic, social and ganda appreciate a source of objec- on the civilian population. As the development indicators to decide tive information, however much they conflict de-escalates, the UN will seek which sectors and organizations are may seek to bias it. After a peace to prevent another peak by moving the most receptive and resistant to agreement is signed, the objective the conflict into termination phase. assistance. voice of an independent outside body Finally, once the fighting has stopped, To establish an effective sanctions can make the difference between a the rebuilding can occur in earnest. regime, it is necessary not only to lasting peace and a temporary cease- For each UN role, specific infor- identify and catch “sanctions fire, as the UN has shown many mation is required. For early warn- busters” through careful border mon- times. Just as a referee is indispens- ing, the UN needs to know who is itoring but also to prepare impact able in a professional sports match, seeking to escalate violence, and spoil assessments on the effectiveness of an impartial arbiter is essential for the peace process, and how they are sanctions, including both wanted and verifying and promoting the rules of planning to carry it out. To react unwanted effects. When the UN a peace agreement. Usually, the two through preventive diplomacy and finally finds itself, as a last resort, sides (conflicting parties) are so dis- deployment, it is vital to identify the engaged in military enforcement or trustful of each other that bilateral key players and means of influence, authorizing it, the organization adversarial verification is problem- and to understand the locations, should have detailed military infor- atic, if not impossible. strengths, goals and vulnerabilities, mation, including targeting informa- Outside monitoring itself can political and military, of potential tion (to minimize, if not avoid, inno- change behaviour. If the parties know “spoilers.” UN officials mediating cent deaths) and information on the that their illegal activities will be talks between combatants should defensive and offensive military capa- exposed they are often more careful identify areas for quick agreement bilities of the targeted forces. Finally, not to engage in them. If they know and discern the more difficult prob- when the UN authorizes a coalition that their positive actions will be veri- lems to address in the long term. For to use military force, it should be able fied by an independent agency, they will be more eager to undertake them. Thus monitoring provides a way for a feedback that builds confi- dence of the parties. Should one side attempt to subvert a peace agree- ment, it is important that the other side should know about it. False alle- gations can be disproved and true accusations placed in the public light. The “fog of war” is gradually replaced by the “transparency of peace.” Figure 1. The predominant goals and roles of the UN at different stages in the timeline of conflict. In practice, peace agreements

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 69 53rd Pugwash Conference have loopholes, nuanced clauses and (and all the way to the Chinese bor- • in Lebanon during the 1958 civil provisions that are subject to widely der) in an effort to take North Korea war, when the US accused UN differing interpretation. This is by force, while ignoring the clear observers of being blind to an another reason why it is vital to have warnings that China would influx of fighters and material; an impartial body that can provide intervene. Over two years of war • again in Lebanon prior to and dur- outside assistance in dealing with the between China and UN forces ing the 1982 Israeli invasion, which complexities of implementation. ensued, leaving four million dead. caught the UN by surprise; Countless times, the UN has used Before the 1973 Yom Kippur War, • in Namibia in April 1989 when its monitoring functions to defuse the UN (along with the US and Israel guerrilla fighters “invaded” unex- potentially explosive situations. for that matter) failed to recognize pectedly and the UN found itself Whether it be UN military observers Egyptian preparations for its surprise forced to sanction the release of in the Middle East stopping a local attack on Israel. In 1982, Secretary- South African forces (garrisoned dispute from escalating, UN control General Pérez de Cuéllar was caught under a peace accord) which pro- teams in Cambodia identifying assas- unawares of the impending Argentine ceeded to massacre of several hun- sination plots, UN civilian police in invasion of the Falkland/Malvinas dred guerrillas; Central America preventing local Islands, despite his familiarity with • in Iraq in 1990 when peacekeepers police from extorting money, or tradi- the region and the dispute. In 1993, failed to report on the impending tional UN peacekeepers inserting the Security Council established UN invasion of Kuwait, leaving the Sec- themselves between two armies, mon- Safe Areas in the former Yugoslavia retary-General totally off-guard itoring the actual or potential com- without a proper assessment of the when the attack occurred; batants is a common and key element. vulnerabilities of these areas. Indeed, • in Somalia in 1993 during the ill- the President of the Security Council fated manhunt for General Lack of Information at the time, Ambassador Diego Arria Mohammed Farah Aideed; When the UN is information- from Venezuela, later complained • in Rwanda in 1994 prior to and a deficient, it invites a host of maladies that the United States was not shar- the beginning of the genocide, when and political disasters. First, it can ing information that was essential for clear warning indicators were appear weak and out of touch, proper decision-making. The tragic ignored; thereby losing credibility and author- massacres within the “protected” • in Zaire in 1996 when the UN ity. If the UN officials appear igno- areas of Srebernica and Gorazde in aborted a peacekeeping operation rant of realities on the ground or the Bosnia are a testament to lack of amidst confusion about the number real issues on the negotiating table, foresight, political will and commit- and conditions of refugees being they cannot make good mediators. ment. As we shall see, foresight to see attacked; Naive UN field personnel can be coming tragedies and political will to • in East Timor in September 1999 taken advantage of by combatants react to them are intimately when the reign of terror caught the long accustomed to using trickery, connected. UN off-guard and unprepared, disinformation and deception to gain Some major “intelligence forcing it to evacuate and forego an upper hand at the negotiating failures” occurred in areas where UN pledges to the Timorese people. table as well as in the battlefield. peacekeepers were actually deployed, In some cases, the blame for UN For lack of information, great bringing great embarrassment to the ignorance belongs to field officers; in blunders have been committed in UN organization. Examples occurred: others responsibility lies with UN history. In 1950 in Korea, the UN • in South Korea in 1950 prior to the headquarters and the Security Coun- General Assembly and the Secretary- invasion from the North, in which cil. Usually, blame is spread rather General, Trygve Lie, fully endorsed UN observers were unable to warn widely but ultimately it can be traced the advance of UN forces, led by the of the attack (though they provided back to the UN member states who American General Douglas important confirmation once it had do not provide the UN with the MacArthur, across the 3815 parallel happened) resources, finances staff and author-

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ity to carry out the much needed The UN and the Information fits from feedback on its work. The information gathering and analysis. Technology Revolution greater world-wide access to UN doc- Far from discrediting the roles and Fortunately, a host of new develop- uments, which were previously not goals of the United Nations, these ments are helping the UN overcome widely circulated outside the UN cen- failures show how important it is for the natural and political barriers to tres in New York, Geneva and the organization to possess the means information-gathering and to make it Vienna, and the subsequent analysis to predict and prevent emerging con- a significant player in the informa- and commentary helps in the creation flicts. The above examples only sup- tion age. Foremost among them is and improvement of new reports and port the call for a stronger UN to be rapidly advancing technology. It is action plans. For instance, the Inter- able to deal proactively with making information easier to access, net site Reliefweb.int, operated by conflicts. Through a lessons-learned store, analyse and disseminate. The the Office for the Coordination of approach, the UN can discover ways primitive teletype machines of the Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA), to avoid repeating past errors and 1980s used by the UN offices to print allows the UN to pool information invest in new approaches and sequential reports from a few wire resources from the myriad of UN resources to head off future disasters. services are replaced with desktop agencies working in the field, as well The UN Secretaries-General have computers for UN officials, permit- as local and international non-gov- constantly complained that there is ting them to draw upon a huge num- ernmental organizations, and even insufficient information to make the ber of sources, including dozens of national aid agencies. Field reports best decisions. “The pool of informa- wire services, using specialized soft- that previously would have remained tion available to the SecretaryGeneral ware (e.g., NewsEdge). The Internet strictly within the confines of one is wholly inadequate,” wrote Secre- has increased the accessibility, scope department or agency are now avail- tary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar and depth of information from able routinely in a timely fashion to in his 1991 Annual Report on the sources world-wide. The World Wide virtually anyone in the world at Work of the Organization. Boutros Web, which is estimated to be dou- www.reliefweb.int. Boutros-Ghali even recommended bling every year or so, offers new The wealth of electronic informa- that the UN develop an opportunities for both information- tion would be overwhelming and “intelligence” capability, a proposal gathering and dissemination. As indi- impenetrable were it not for the which was greeted with a chorus of viduals and civil society in the devel- excellent search engines on the Inter- nays from member states because the oping world have begun to post net—“Google” being the search “intelligence” word, sometimes asso- copious amounts of information on engine of choice among many ciated with nefarious undercover the Internet, a new and special source experts, surfers and researchers. operations, had been used. Secretary- of information becomes available These search engines permit the web General Kofi Annan has made a bold globally, including to the UN. On a surfer to scan vast sections of the and valiant effort to establish an typical day, the UN receives over Internet—Google searches over three Information and Strategic Analysis 200,000 requests for pages from its billion web pages—in a fraction of a Secretariat (ISAS) within the Secre- web sites. second in order to produce results tariat, as proposed in the widly- Electronic mail has made global (“hits”) corresponding to the search 16 acclaimed Brahimi Report . But this communications easier, cheaper and terms, however specialized these initiative is being resisted by a num- faster. It is quickly gaining a foothold terms may be. For instance a search ber of developing states who fear that in developing countries, thereby pro- on the term “United Nations moni- the UN might pry into their internal viding UN officials in New York with toring” gives 1,500 web pages in 17 affairs. With the new emphasis on the individual contacts at the grass roots 0.18 seconds. protection of UN field workers, after level in countries far away. In addi- Still, the concomitant problems of the tragic Baghdad bombing, a sys- tion, as UN information becomes “information overload and under- tem for realistic threat assessments more easily accessible to more groups use” are common in the UN, as they may finally be created. from around the world, the UN bene- are all over the world. With an ocean

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 71 53rd Pugwash Conference of information available, more time organization in the past decade is expertise grew. Even still, the applica- and insight is required to sift through manifested in many forms, but it is in tion of monitoring is not uniform. The the mounds of news and background its monitoring functions that we see choice of countries and conflicts that information that are constantly piling the greatest growth of roles and are monitored is still based more on up, and less time seems to be avail- responsibilities. How has this come national politics (especially from the able for analysis and reflection. about? Was it the result of a planned Permanent Five members of the Secu- The growth of the Internet has strategy or sporadic progress driven rity Council), and less on needs of the other potential weaknesses for the by the immediate needs of the day? affected populations. world and the United Nations. It fos- The answer would appear to be It is important to identify forces ters a dependency on a system subject “clearly both”, as evidenced by that have sought to undermine, or at to break down and misuse. Examples numerous case studies. Creative UN least slow down the evolution of UN of the latter include unwarranted sur- leadership at specific times of interna- monitoring. There are many such veillance by governments of electronic tional need, if not desperation, per- forces. Some are natural and, indeed, communications (including those of mitted the development of significant helpful; others are hostile and the UN), the propagation of computer innovations that brought both obstreperous. Many developing viruses, the use of the medium for progress and precedence to UN mon- countries are reluctant to allow the crime, corruption and other nefarious itoring. An enhancement of the UN’s UN to monitor their activities for fear purposes, the invasion of privacy in capacity for observation was a nat- of negative publicity or the exposure the form of junk e-mail, etc. ural step in the information age, and of domestic incompetence, corrup- But the overall effects are clearly a much needed one, as the global tion, complicity or other wrong- positive. In this electronic revolution, body could report more impartially doing. This also holds true for the it is harder for governments to con- and objectively than national govern- activities of the most powerful coun- trol or suppress the flow of informa- ments, especially governments tries as well. The United States is tion. It is easier for people to span involved in conflicts. careful not to allow the UN to intercontinental distances using elec- But how permanent is this threaten its dominance in the intelli- tronic communications. The global progress and this process? The UN’s gence arena, especially on matters village is getting smaller. And the UN evolution has been far from linear; it where its intelligence reports might gains because of it. follows a path strewn with many be challenged (e.g., on the presence of obstacles and can be characterized as weapons of mass destruction in Iraq) Conclusion “two steps forward and one step or US covert intelligence operations True to Wilson’s vision in 1919, the backwards.” Some capabilities and might be exposed (e.g., Contra arma- monitoring capability of the interna- functions may again be lost (as hap- ment in Nicaragua, assassination tional community is slowly evolving pened with some League mechan- attempts on Prime Minister into a global watch. The faltering but isms). But much will remain in the Lumumba in the Congo, complicity pioneering efforts of the League pro- form of permanent capabilities, new with Duvalier regime in Haiti, etc.). It vided the UN with a foundation on mandates and new procedures. Once a has opposed a general purpose arms which to build. The end of the Cold new role has been successfully demon- verification capability for the UN and War allowed the UN to acquire strated, the international community kept the UN hobbled through its fail- expanded roles in many new fields to usually finds new applications, espe- ure to pay its annual dues for about meet the needs of a very unpeaceful cially in an age when global govern- three decades. There are factions world. From early warning to peace- ance mechanisms are sorely needed. within the US right-wing that are building, from disarmament verifica- The monitoring of national elections, openly hostile to the UN and para- tion to a terrorist watch, there are peace agreements, sanctions, human noid elements hold that the UN is new and expanded responsibilities rights, etc., gradually covered more actually heading a conspiracy to for the UN. countries as the value of these prac- overthrow the US government! The evolution of international tices were proven and the UN’s own Are there legitimate pitfalls and

72 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference prohibited zones for a UN global “right of refusal” of fact-finding Notes watch? The issues of privacy, confi- teams on certain issues such as 1 Dr. Walter Dorn is an Associate Profes- dentiality, misuse of information human rights, to develop a UN Open sor at the Canadian Forces College and must all be examined. Some fear the Skies treaty, which would allow the Vice Chair of the Canadian Pugwash Group. He is currently writing a book creation of an Orwellian UN in UN to overfly national territories as a with the support of a DFAIT Human which “big brother is watching.” confidence-building measure (similar Security Fellowship on the evolving Those studying the UN and those to the treaty regime that is now in “Global Watch.” He is a scientist by training, with experience on chemical knowledgeable about its capacities force between NATO and the former- sensing and arms control verification. (and limitations) know that such a Warsaw Pact countries). While these He served with the UN in East Timor, fear is unfounded. In the distant proposals may seem radical it is not a in Ethiopia, and at UN headquarters as a Training Adviser to the UN’s Depart- future, however, perhaps 2084 departure from the historical devel- ment of Peacekeeping Operations. His instead of 1984, could such concerns opment but a natural and fruitful homepage is . be validated? In human history, outcome of present trends. 2 Dorn, A. Walter, “The Cloak and the whenever and wherever power was It is clear that UN monitoring Blue Beret: Limitations on Intelligence in UN Peacekeeping”, International over concentrated, such a concern should be conducted where conflict is Journal of Intelligence and CounterIn- has arisen, including in the Roman most prevalent or most likely to telligence, Vol. 12, No. 4, December Empire, when the question was fre- break out, but should the monitoring 1999, p. 414. quently asked, “Who will watch the system be applied equally to the 3 “Political and Peacebuilding missions” were established by the UN, according watchman?” But the very nature of developed (first) world as well as to to the Department of Political Affairs the UN, with its diverse membership the developing (third) world? Should under its mandate, in Burundi (1993), and international civil service makes the UN monitor those states who act Afghanistan (1993), Guatemala (1994), Somalia (1995), Liberia (1997), Great it difficult to keep secrets or to over- (or claim to act) as “enforcers” of Lakes Region (1997), Bougainville step the bounds imposed by its mem- UN decisions and resolutions, (1998), Guinea-Bissau (1999), Middle bers or to take action that would whether they be duly-authorized or East (1999), Angola (1999), Central dilute its moral authority. And with self-appointed “coalitions of the will- African Republic (2000) and Tajikistan (2000). See “Background Note: United more democratic nations than ever ing”? What practical means have Nations Political and Peacebuilding before in history (both in absolute been adopted to keep track of such Missions, 1 June 2001”, UN Doc. numbers and as a percentage of the enforcers to make sure that human DPI/2166/Rev.4. 4 whole), a dependable system of lives are not lost needlessly or care- These reports are publicly accessible on the UN’s Web site: checks and balances could easily be lessly (as “collateral damage”) and , set up to regulate UN monitoring. that human suffering is reduced to a (accessed 20 November 2001). On a practical level, what minimum. This type of UN monitor- 5 The previous two paragraphs may be concrete steps can be taken to pro- ing lags well behind the others both deleted in the final version. 6 , accessed 20 November 2001. future? Some feel that it is feasible for study. It would be well for academic/ UNICEF generally defines a “child” as the UN to negotiate information- activist groups like Pugwash to is done in the Convention on the Rights sharing agreements with examine the means of monitoring of the Child: every human being below the age of 18 years, though the Conven- governments so that it can receive a enforcers and further explore the tion adds the qualification “ unless, regular feed of information from a notion of an emerging global watch. under the law applicable to the child, diverse set of nations (which would, As an “eye that does not slumber”, majority is attained earlier.” 7 presumably, reduce the dangers of the UN could serve the world, not as . Kofi A. Annan, Foreword, “The State of the World’s Children 2002: Leader- bias). The present author is in favour “big brother”, not as a “big bother” ship, United Nations Children’s Fund,” of such agreements as well as other (as some might think it) but as "big , accessed 20 November 2001. status for new UN investigative pow- and justice more accessible on the 8 The number of refugees or internally ers within states; to curtail a state’s planet. displaced persons (IDPs) ‘of concern’ to

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the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), has stood at Preparing the United Nations for Rapid 21-22 million in the years for the first Deployment to Protect Civilians years of the 21st century. Information provided on the Home Page of the H. Peter Langille, University of Victoria United Nations High Commission for Refugees for the beginning of the year 2001 (, accessed 5 Ironically, improving UN rapid ‘saving succeeding generations from October 2001). deployment has proven to be a slow the scourge of war’. There is also the 9 The six largest exporters of “conven- process. We have been at it for more questionable notion that the UN can- tional arms” include the five permanent than a decade with national studies, not handle robust operations or oper- members of the Security Council, with the US taking the lion’s share: US, 47%; multinational initiatives, interna- ations that entail authorization for Russia, 14%; UK, 8%; France, 7%; tional commissions, panels of the limited use of force under Chap- Germany 6%; China, 3%. SIPRI year- experts, even conference workshops. ter VII. Everyone knows that the UN book, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm. Yet rather than rapid deploy- has had difficulties and several seri- 10 Press release, “Transparency in Mili- ment, by 1997 routine delays of four ous failures. The successes are seldom tary Matters Grows”, UN Doc. to six months became the norm. By heralded. Yet it is noteworthy that DC/2799 of 31 July 2001. available at their nature, emergency situations many of the recent UN operations , accessed 20 Novem- usually require prompt responses. have had a robust composition and ber 2001. And, earlier this year, a representa- often a mandate authorizing the use 11 UNICEF Press Release tive from Sierra Leone reminded us of force (East Timor, Sierra Leone, CF/DOC/PR/1999/26 of 20 July 1999. about the consequences of slow the Democratic Republic of the Available at , accessed 23 December responses, warning that delays often Congo, Kosovo). 2003. frustrated the combatants, encour- This is not to suggest that the 12 United Nations Secretary-General, aged re-armament, created security new EU rapid deployment force or Report of the Group of Governmental vacuums, provoked ceasefire viola- the NATO rapid reaction forces are Experts on Small Arms, UN Doc. A/54/258 of 19 August 1999, p.13. tions, and further prolonged armed to be dismissed; they may be quite available at , accessed national Commission on Intervention ‘stop-gap’ measures, not viable long- 23 December 2003. and State Sovereignty, The Responsi- term options for preventing, manag- 13 “United Nations International Study bility To Protect, revitalized wider ing or resolving armed conflicts on Firearm Regulations” (UNSFR), interest in the use of force to protect worldwide. Given the universal United Nations Crime and Justice Information Network, Vienna, 1998. civilians threatened by genocide and membership and wider legitimacy of The report and updates are available at mass ethnic cleansing.2 While helping the UN, this paper will argue the . to initiate a new international norm, UN must be better prepared for 14 United Nations Human Development it also raised questions about ‘how’ assigned tasks in diverse peace oper- Report 1999, United Nations Develop- ment Programme, New York, 1999. to protect and ‘with what’, establish- ations, including protection of 15 The Brahimi report is officially called ing the need to identify and elaborate civilians. “The Report of the Panel on United upon the alternatives. It is relatively easy to see a rela- Nations Peace Operations”, UN docu- Increasingly, we hear of ‘coali- tionship between rapid deployment ment reference: A/55/305 and S/2000/809 of 21 August 2000. It is tions of the willing’, of ‘regional and the protection of civilians. available at , accessed 23 armies’ as the new preferences. There ians when a deployment is delayed by December 2003. is little doubt that the ‘international 4 to 6 months. If the objective is to 16 Search performed with Google on 30 December 2001. community’ will exhaust every dubi- protect, you need to get the mission ous option before returning to the in place quickly with a credible one universal institution devoted to presence.

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Once again, speakers at this year’s headquarters attracted sufficient intent is to provide the UN with opening session of the UN Special response to fill each of the 154 posi- approximately 5000 troops within Committee on Peacekeeping Opera- tions with at least two nominations. 15-30 days. There are now 15 mem- tions stressed that rapid response was It remains to be seen whether this ber states participating in both the the key to saving lives and reducing model will provide a coherent head- headquarters and the brigade pool. It costs.3 Secretary-General, Kofi quarters on short notice. That redun- has quite broad representation, Annan concluded his report to this dancy of personnel listed will likely although it needs to attract more. It year’s committee urging member be needed. succeeded in its first traditional mis- states to intensify their attention and Fourth, the UN Stand-by sion in Eritrea and Ethiopia and it response, particularly in the area of Arrangement System (UNSAS) has managed a fairly quick exit, if not a rapid deployment.4 been refined and expanded. As of quick entry. In December, the partici- What is new here? The UN Secre- February, seventy-five Governments pating member states agreed, in prin- tariat has fulfilled its share of the bar- indicated their support for this sys- cipal, that they would consider more gain to modernize and reform. The tem, with conditional commitments robust operations on a case-by-case onus is now very much on the mem- of personnel and equipment listed; basis, effectively suggesting a jump ber states, particularly those from the conditional as in what the member from the former stipulation for wealthier developed world who states might provide. Chapter VI peacekeeping to remain demanded the reforms as a precondi- A fourth ‘rapid deployment’ level relevant in the current operations, tion to further participation. for formed units was added to the which often entail authorization Although further, more system last summer to encourage under Chapter VII for the limited ambitious changes are required, there MOUs for self-sustainment and clar- use of force. are indications of recent progress and ify contingent owned equipment, Would 5000 well-trained, well- complementary reforms.5 Five are largely to assist in movement plan- equipped troops be enough to make a noteworthy. ning and avoid administrative delays. difference? Of course, it depends on It is early going, but so far only two the scope and scale of the particular Recent Progress countries, Jordan and Uruguay have conflict, but 5000 is the number First, it is encouraging that the UN committed to this level. Major-General Dallaire cited as being Department of Peacekeeping Opera- Within the standby arrangements, sufficient to stem much of the geno- tions— DPKO—has been substan- however, there are still shortages of cide in Rwanda. The British didn’t tively expanded to facilitate planning, enabling units and there is still a need need to deploy that many to have a management and support. At least, for strategic lift capacity. calming influence on the savage vio- there is a new HQ structure, new The Secretariat has also called for lence in Sierra Leone. Arguably, a offices and 50% more staff. That more sophisticated military capabili- coherent brigade group could be very recruitment process is now largely ties that can deter and respond to useful in protecting civilians. complete. Since the UNTAEAS mis- threats by uncontrolled armed The SHIRBRIG is the most sion, wherever both possible and jus- groups. This is easier for some than advanced mechanism to date for UN tified, robust deployments have been others, but we already have one rela- peace operations. However, it will the norm. tively good model. have to be modified if it is to remain Second, already, we hear that Fifth, the SHIRBRIG was relevant and ready for new tasks. there are sufficient Strategic Deploy- designed to complement the UN Given Canada’s current Chairman- ment Stocks at UN logistics base, stand-by arrangement, with a multi- ship of the SHIRBRIG, there is a Brindisi to provide the basic national Stand-by High Readiness unique opportunity to take a lead infrastructure and kits for prompt Brigade (SHIRBRIG) for UN opera- role in preparing military capabilities start-up of an operation. tions. It has been operational since for the protection of civilians. If it is Third, the on-call lists for a 1999 and although it has yet to to be ready for robust operations, rapidly deployable military mission demonstrate rapid deployment, the including the protection of civilians,

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 75 53rd Pugwash Conference the SHIRBRIG will need to expand national units—conditions that fre- As a result, there are widespread con- its membership and the pool of avail- quently stymie and slow responses. cerns about an increasingly unrepre- able resources. This is evident in the UNSAS and sentative, two-tiered system that is Notably, the Brahimi report (the even in the SHIRBRIG, which also far too selective and slow. Panel on UN Peace Operations) depends upon the political will of the In short, we finally have an insti- encouraged member states to cooper- participating member states and their tutional foundation for peacekeep- ate in developing coherent brigade prompt national approval, which in ing; it has improved in the past two groups that could be made available turn is frequently far from reliable. years with the Brahimi reforms and it to the UN at short notice.6 To date, Repeatedly, even in resolutions of might help speed deployments. But the SHIRBRIG is alone. It has the UN Security Council, there are due to the preferences of the member expressed a willingness to share expe- warnings of a commitment-capability states, this foundation was predicated rience and assistance with others who gap as numerous Member States con- on existing arrangements, not new might consider a similar partnership. tinue to deny the UN sufficient per- effective structures. Hence, there is Coalitions in other regions are sonnel, mechanisms and funding. no guarantee of reliability and no exploring partnerships to emulate That does not bode well for peace assurance of rapid deployment— this model of cooperation (including operations, for protecting civilians or irrespective of how desperate the the AU, SEEBRIG, ECOWAS and for overcoming an increasingly emergency may be and irrespective of SADC). divided, militarised and risky world. what is actually happening to civil- Aside from the political challenge Further, we all know that for ians. of attracting additional commitments many affluent Western member and capabilities, a major effort will states, the political will to contribute Renewed interest in a new ‘standing’ mechanism? be required to address the current declined markedly with donor void in understanding how to fatigue, fear of casualties and appre- So the wider challenge remains, as prepare military forces to protect hension over extended commitments, does the need for more ambitious civilians. At present, there is lack of costs and stretched resources. building blocks and new structures. appropriate doctrine, tactics, training For example, Canada, which was One can cite a long list of political and exercises. formerly a leading troop contributor and financial impediments, but it is now ranks about 32nd with just over also apparent that the political envi- A Preliminary Foundation 240 military personnel in UN mis- ronment is changing rapidly in a Combined, these five related efforts sions.7 But the problem is systemic. manner that might be conducive to now provide a basic institutional Western defence establishments have the development of options formerly foundation for peace operations. This a strong preference for the big league, dismissed as naïve ‘long-shots’. is also a foundation that should facil- big budget, advanced technology, To cite one example, last month, itate the establishment of further, war-fighting roles and a bias toward U.S. Secretary of Defense, Donald more ambitious developments and coalition operations with American Rumsfeld informed a group of additional building blocks. Arguably, forces. This preference is now also defense industry leaders in Washing- if it is to succeed, it will have to. reflected in Foreign Affairs, although ton that he was considering the devel- the new emphasis appears to be on opment of a standing international Potential Limitations NATO peace operations. peacekeeping force.8 This would be a To date, this is not a foundation Such preferences are not without major departure from the ad hoc sys- capable of ensuring rapid deployment consequences. In the past four years, tem of requesting national approval or the protection of civilians. Why? the heavy burden in carrying UN for national assistance and personnel These arrangements still depend operations has been quietly shifted once a crisis arises. Unlike the condi- upon political will, prompt national onto developing countries, which tional and quite unreliable standby approval and funding, as well as now provide over seventy percent of arrangements, a standing force is a appropriately-trained, well-equipped, the personnel for UN peacekeeping. coherent formation, maintained in

76 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference readiness with pre-trained, well valid: a force alone may be insuffi- fulfill a wide array of tasks. equipped personnel, available for cient.11 As most peace operations are There would be no shortage of immediate deployment once autho- now complex multidimensional mis- individuals willing to volunteer for rized. sions, involving military, police and service on a paid, full-time basis, sim- However, as reported, Rumsfeld’s civilian personnel, there is a need for ilar to that of UN civil servants.13 initial idea was to have the U.S. to both robust security forces and useful Each would be recruited and selected organize, train and lead this new services that address human needs on the basis of specific expertise and force, effectively reallocating respon- and provide hope. These must be skills, as well as dedication to the sibility for peacekeeping to the Penta- incorporated in both planning and principles of the UN. To ensure uni- gon, not the United Nations. deployments at the earliest stages. versal representation, applicants Last week, it was also reported would be encouraged from all mem- A UN Emergency Service that President Bush met with UN Sec- ber states.14 retary-General Kofi Annan and the A multidimensional UN Emergency According to Kofi Annan and his Under-Secretary-General for Peace- Service—a UN ‘911’ composed of Under-Secretary-General for Peace- keeping Operations, Jean Marie Gue- military police and civilian keeping, Jean Marie Guehenno, henno, to discuss, among other volunteers—would correspond to improving UN rapid deployment things, options for global peacekeep- these diverse operational remains a priority task; one the UN ing and the possibility of training a requirements of contemporary, as and various NGOs are still pursuing, ‘ready cadre’ of people from around well as future UN peace operations. despite a lack of tangible support the Globe.9 The model of a UN Emergency from governments and foundations. While many may see the Bush Service is projected to require a total That must change! administration’s new interest in a of approximately 13,200 In his seminal 1957 study, A standing peacekeeping force as a des- personnel.12 This number includes all United Nations Peace Force, William perate policy reversal, a ‘trial deployable elements, base support R. Frye provided an insight that is balloon’, if not another diversion and administration, as well as the worth recalling: that which is radical from current problems, Pentagon operational headquarters. The latter one year can become conservative officials claim it is being taken seri- would be expected to ensure two tac- and accepted the next”.15 We have ously, even in discussions with other tical-field headquarters (mission yet to achieve Frye’s objective. The governments.10 headquarters) were fully functional challenge remains, as does the urgent If that is the case, officials from and capable of assuming operational need. We should prepare various member states may soon get control over one of the two forma- accordingly!16 a call requesting assistance, if not tions of deployable elements. The advice. This might provide an oppor- deployable elements assigned to each Notes tunity for supportive governments mission headquarters would be iden- 1 Cited in UN, “Rapid Response By UN and organizations to revitalize wider tical, including a military brigade Key To Saving Lives And Reducing Costs, Speakers Stress In Peacekeeping interest in other options and indicate group, three companies of civilian Committee, As General Debate Con- support, albeit only if the focus is re- police, as well as civilians skilled in cludes”, Press Release, GA/PK/178, directed toward the UN. Fortunately, diverse humanitarian, peace-building March 4, 2003. 2 reports indicate the American admin- and conflict resolution tasks. These See: Report of the International Com- mission on Intervention and State Sov- istration is still thinking this through various elements would be within a ereignty, The Responsibility to Protect, and not yet fixed to a particular pref- modular structure allowing deploy- (Ottawa: International Development erence. ments to be tailored to the specific Research Centre, December 2001). 3 One of the central findings of the demands of diverse assignments. UN, “Rapid Response By UN Key To Saving Lives And Reducing Costs…” Canadian study on developing a UN Each package could carry a credible 4 UN, Report of the Secretary-General to rapid deployment capability, includ- military presence, provide unique the General Assembly, “Implementation ing a UN standing force, remains support and services, and potentially of the recommendations of the Special

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Committee on Peacekeeping Review of Books, vol. XL, no. 11, June 16 This is an appropriate time for an in- Operations”, A/57/711, January 16, 1993, pp. 3-4 For an early response to depth, independent, transnational study 2003, para. 92, p. 26. the Urquhart proposal see: Lord to identify the general and specific 5 For more detailed analysis, see H. Peter Richard Carver, “A UN Volunteer Mili- requirements for starting, maintaining Langille, Bridging the Commitment- tary Force: Four Views”, The New and operating a UN Emergency Service. Capacity Gap: Existing Arrangements York Review of Books, vol. XL, no. 12, This study should provide a review of and Options for Enhancing UN Rapid June 24, 1993. diverse options and assess their poten- Deployment, (Wayne, NJ: Center for 15 William R. Frye, A United Nations tial for addressing probable tasks and UN Reform Education, 2002). Peace Force, (New York: Oceana Publi- contingencies. It should also offer guid- ance into appropriate composition, 6 United Nations, Report of the Panel on cations, 1957), p. 77. structure and organization. UN Peace Operations, A/55/305- S/2000/809, para 115. 7 In Canada, it is noteworthy that peace operations have been dropped almost Bella Americana: Some Consequences for the to the bottom of the human security agenda with officials placing their International Community emphasis on gender and expert civilian Bas de Gaay Fortman, Utrecht University1 deployment. 8 See Esther Schrader, “U.S. Looks at Organizing Global Peacekeeping The view that the United Nations is Saddam Hussein constituted a major Force”, Los Angeles Times, June 27, “dead” (Richard Perle) is not new. dilemma to the international commu- 2003. For rigid supporters of international nity, as Tony Blair put it to the House 9 Howard LaFranchi, “Bush may forge new model for global peacekeeping”, peace enforcement—peace by mili- of Commons. However, in such The Christian Science Monitor, July 14, tary means wherever required—the dilemmas between human rights, 2003. organization had served its turn democracy and disarmament on the 10 For further analysis of this option see, already in 1956 when it failed to put one hand, and international security H. Peter Langille, “A global emergency force?”, The Toronto Star, July 4, an end to the Soviet occupation of on the other hand, it used to be the 2003. Hungary. Serious disappointments latter that tipped the balance. This 11 See, Government of Canada, Towards would follow: Tibet, Czechoslovakia, was probably in line with the inten- a UN Rapid Reaction Capability, Poland, Afghanistan, East Timor, to tions of the 51 states that had signed Ottawa, September 1995. mention just a few. The UN’s major the Charter of the United Nations on 12 See Langille, Bridging the Commitment—Capacity Gap, pp. 127- concern has always been inter- 24 October 1945, a more realistic 128 national security in its prime meaning design than the “softie” Pact of the 13 An excellent review of the arguments of the avoidance of war, while all that League of Nations. “Negative for and against such a development is refers to “positive peace”—in the peace”, in other words, was within, Stephen P. Kinloch, “Utopian or Pragmatic? A UN Permanent Military sense of peace with justice—is seen as grounded in that primary emotion Volunteer Force”, International Peace- subservient to that strategic thrust. It of 1945: Never Again! keeping, vol. 3, no. 4, Winter 1996. was only after the end of the Cold Yet, what happened in Iraq can- 14 This option was outlined in Towards a War that some new optimism could not be simply interpreted as a victory Rapid Reaction Capability for the United Nations. Further elaboration arise regarding a corrective role for of American peace idealists against was provided in H. Peter Langille, the UN in cases of major aggression the realism of a Security Council in Maxime Faille, Carlton Hughes and and grossly oppressive regimes; yet, line with the UN’s founders. One Major James Hammond, “A Prelimi- nary Blueprint of Long-Term Options what followed were the disappoint- should rather speak of a new type of for Enhancing a UN Rapid Reaction ing 1990s, that period of missed realism, based on unilateral economic Capability”, in Davic Cox and Albert opportunities. interests—the oil supply to the Legault, (eds), UN Rapid Reaction Capabilities: Prospects and Require- Strikingly, it is precisely that “ide- North, for example—and, above all, ments, (Cornwallis: Pearson Peacekeep- alistic” peace enforcement discourse a unipolar view on power. In the Dec- ing Press, 1995), pp. 179-200. Both that is now employed by the so-called laration of 7 June 1997, signed by inspiration and ideas were derived from Sir Brian Urquhart, “For a UN Volun- realists who declare the UN to be men like Dick Cheney, Donald Rums- teer Military Force, The New York dead again. It is true, of course, that feld and Paul Wolfowitz, this new

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American realism had already been regime change, however, primarily still confronted with the need for made explicit. An appeal is made to implies war: a series of Bella Ameri- reception by those affected by its exe- accept America’s unique role in the cana. Strikingly, since 9/11 the United cution. The ruled, in other words, world and to maintain an States considers itself as being “in have to accept the rule of the rulers. international order conducive to its war”. The new American leadership recog- security, welfare and principles. In his A first reaction, then, that merits nizes this; hence the “imbedding” of State of the Union message of Janu- serious consideration is Tony Blair’s journalists in their war machine. In ary 2002, George W. Bush based his attitude of “If you can’t beat them, our modern world, legitimacy is the presidential doctrine on the following join them!” While not his official inescapable condition for holding three principles: active global Ameri- political line—which moved from the power without repressing one’s own can leadership, regime change in the dangers of weapons of mass destruc- people. Apparently, the legitimation case of “rogue” governments and tion deployable within 45 minutes to effort of the Bush II administration global promotion of neo-liberal “just war” against regimes that cause appears to be focused on a combina- democracy. During the past years the their own subjects unnecessary suf- tion of ideological persuasion and an United States has acted in conformity fering—it would at least be a strategy emphasis on outcome: “All ’s well with that line, showing time and one could understand. In the new that ends well.” However, legitimacy again that they are with the UN only century, American military supre- is a matter of three things: the right when it suits them. Instances coming macy is a fact of life, and the only principles and institutions, the right to mind include the Kyoto Protocol way to contain its consequences with processes and the right outcomes. As and the International Criminal regard to the international political to the principles, the new American Court. Bypassing the Security Coun- order is to stay within the Atlantic leadership no longer recognizes the cil in a pre-emptive war fits into also alliance. Unfortunately, however, it is United Nations’ Charter as an Inter- that picture. Not surprisingly, the US not the coalition but the mission that national Constitution. Here, a politi- dealt with the “rogue” issue in the decides policies (“the mission must cal philosophical battle has to be Middle East. Above all, however, in determine the coalition, the coalition fought with all possible force, based its forceful opposition to the already must not determine the mission”3). on a combination of realism and heavily weakened Iraqi state, Bush Illustratively, when Blair seemed to moral conviction. As to the former, had an excellent opportunity to face trouble in his parliament, world peace through world law5 is, demonstrate American supremacy as Defense Secretary Rumsfeld rushed indeed, not yet a fully realized option the foundation of a new international to point out the possibility of “going and most probably never will be. In a political order. How to assess the it alone”. In Washington today, even global context, formation and execu- consequences of that “New American NATO is seen as an impediment to tion of power without a solid legal Century” in respect of the United the necessary flexibility. As for the base remains inevitable. But wherever Nations, and how to react? European Union, “disaggregation” that takes place, its objectives and In the search for a new foreign appears to be the core of American focus have to be questioned continu- policy, e.g. in the European Union, foreign policy, as a State department ously, and a real effort has to be reference is sometimes made to a Pax official recently declared.4 made to incorporate not only politi- Americana. With that term, compar- The price one pays for the “join cal, but also military and economic isons come to mind with the Pax them” formula is its enhancement of power, in an international legal set- Romana at the start of the first mil- the position of the current American ting. Insofar as global power forma- lennium and the Pax Britannica in the administration in the struggle for tion cannot be based on principles of 19th century. Notably, these international legitimacy. We are representative democracy, power hegemonies served “negative peace”, touching upon a complicated notion sharing constitutes the next best particularly in the case of the British here, and one that in international option. Essential in this respect is not Empire outside Europe.2 The Ameri- debate is often overlooked. Even the incorporation of primarily “the can obsession with “axes of evil” and when power is “a fact of life”, it is willing”, but precisely the incorpora-

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tion of opposing forces. Military January 2004. Genuine universality corrections downstream are never power may, indeed, provide security, exists in market-related rights and possible. Operational structures will but it can also attract danger and values, rather than in the fundamen- have to be found to facilitate decent new threats6, as illustrated today in tal freedoms and entitlements follow- and credible association with civil post-war Iraq. International law, as ing from the Universal Declaration of society at both the global and the positivized in the Charter of the Human Rights whose quinquennial local level. It is true, of course, that in United Nations and further celebration is loudly announced every their exclamation, “Thank God for developed through decades of UN five years. The People deficit in the the death of the United Nations”, practice, is based on the primary new triple value approach—People, Richard Perle and the likes have to be principle of non-intervention. Planet, Profit—in global business convincingly confronted. But that Notwithstanding the international might worry the participants at the battle has to be fought with more character of human rights obligations World Economic Forum as much as it than words alone; it is, indeed, high as obligationes erga omnes, humani- does the non-governmental commu- time for a revitalization of the United tarian intervention cannot be based nity at the World Social Forum. Nations in line with its new tasks. on unilateralist action.7 It is the prin- (Rather urgent, by the way, is the Hence, Kofi Annan’s immediate reac- ciple of the rule of law, so vigorously establishment of structural connec- tion on the war that bypassed the defended domestically in the United tions between these two principal international community—you stum- States, that have to be extended to global fora.) ble, you fall, you rise, and then you global forms of governance: limited In respect of global legitimacy, a walk again—misses the seriousness of government, government by law and discussion of the right principles is a the current crisis in the international respect for subjective rights, both of great deal easier than an examination political order.8 individuals and of groups. of the right institutions. There is a lot A revitalization of the UN is to be Fortunately, this political philo- of well-founded criticism on the UN, founded in the three grand projects sophical confrontation of the “New and here it is worth listening to the with which the organization started American Century” position, based current American administration as after World War II: international as it is on the wrong principles, is well. (Evidently, a focus on legitimacy security, human rights and develop- already becoming part of the daily implies that, in terms of their military ment. The major challenge today is to debate within the United States. supremacy, the United States is not create an approach that integrates Europe, that birthplace of interna- necessarily right, but nor is it neces- across these ventures’ three separate tional law, also has to join in the sarily wrong.) Inefficient and ineffec- institutional settings: the Security debate, refuting the attempts at “dis- tive bureaucracies, irrelevant discus- Council, with its international politi- aggregation”. International civil soci- sions, and endless procedures cal focus; ECOSOC and the human ety will doubtless take part, too: undermine the organization. The rights institutions with their juridical watch the coming World Social point is that the right processes, the focus; and the United Nations Devel- Forum IV in Bombay, January 2004. next major element in establishing opment Program, the specialized For Pugwash International, an inspir- legitimacy in the realm of global agencies and the Bretton Woods insti- ing role seems an obvious power, are necessarily connected with tutions with their economic focus. consequence of our strategic thrust in the United Nations, and it happens to When the Roosevelt Academy in international affairs, with the Annual be that the UN itself suffers from a Middelburg (NL) gives out its “four Conference as a prime opportunity. lack of democratic legitimation in its freedoms awards” it nominates not No less important is the international decision-making processes. This only four prize winners for the free- corporate world. An increasing focus applies to the United Nations as such, dom of speech, the freedom of wor- on “corporate responsibility” may but also to connected agencies such ship, the freedom from fear and the well result in a global interest in these as the World Trade Organization. An freedom from want, but the Academy matters, too: watch the coming impression is created that whatever also awards a fifth: for the four World Economic Forum in Davos, has been decided in the upper levels, together.9

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In all three major fields of inter- Confronting these deficits will Notes

national governance—international require a different style in 1 Professor of Political Economy of security, human rights and develop- international politics at all levels. This Human Rights, Utrecht University; ment—a re-engineering seems well in style will need to be tuned to the con- Emeritus Professor of Political Economy, place. If the current crisis were to sultation and involvement of people, Institute of Social Studies (The Hague). contribute to such an undertaking, it rather than geopolitical maneuvering, 2 Cf. W.F. de Gaay Fortman, Recht en might even be seen as positive. and it will need to deal primarily with vrede, in B. de Gaay Fortman (ed.), Finally, there remains the issue of the real threats, such as lack of water, Christendom en oorlog, Kampen: Kok, 1966, pp. 146-147. outcome. In the three areas of this rather than outward manifestations 3 Quoted by Peter van Ham, Pax Ameri- international mission, our world of power like the possession of cana als conservatieve revolutie: gevol- today is confronted with huge weapons of mass destruction. gtrekkingen voor Europa, in Interna- deficits. The international security Within an international setting tionale Spectator, Vol. 57, No 7/8, deficit expresses itself in endless man- tuned to negative as well as positive July/August 2003. ifestations of intra-state collective peace, a special position for the 4 Quoted by Timothy Garton Ash, “Are violence. Grave instances of complete United States, with its impressive You With Us? Are We Against You?”, in The New York Times, 30th May failure of the international commu- power in terms of military, financial 2003 nity come to mind here (Rwanda, and human resources, will have to be 5 See the magnum opus of Grenville Srebenica). The realization of human accepted. Essential in that respect is a Clark and Louis B. Sohn, World Peace rights suffers from a huge deficit too, legal framework based on a re-engi- through World Law Cambridge which is all too often submerged in neering of international principles (Mass.): Harvard University Press, the general euphoria over human regarding sovereignty and the prohi- 1958. 6 rights declarations, conferences, com- bition of violence. To further this W.F. de Gaay Fortman, op.cit., p. 151. 7 mittee meetings and workshops. goal, the old principle of proportion- In case of force majeure (“quod est illic- itas lege necesitas facit licitum”), the Despite the International Criminal ality applies: even justified interests international community may legitimize Court (confronted by the United are not to be pursued with means that the action through acquiescence (“qui States with its “Hague Invasion result in disproportionate damage to tacit consentire videit”). Act”), a virtually worldwide struggle people outside the actual conflict. 8 See Jan Pronk, VS en VN, in has to be fought against the impunity Obviously, then, in the current Roodkoper, Vol 8, No2, Summer 2003, of state-related perpetrators of civil crisis in the international political p. 16. and political rights. Moreover, other order, much more is at stake today 9 In 2002 that was awarded to Nelson human rights problems continue to than just international security in a Mandela. exist: there is an apparent lack of narrow sense. Indeed, it is not merely protection offered to minorities; a a revision of the Security Council and continued public-private divide, a discussion on the prohibition of which paralyzes the struggle against violence between states that are part domestic violence; and daily non- of the agenda, but also at stake is the implementation of economic, social role of the United Nations in conflict and cultural rights in a world in prevention. For those working on which so many people’s basic needs that agenda, the realism of the United remain denied. There is an enormous Nations’ founders may offer development deficit, too, manifesting profound inspiration, but their ideals itself in gigantic inequalities between may ultimately prove to be even more countries and between people. In crucial. spite of all progress made since the UN’s foundation, these deficits are still far from being effectively tackled.

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NATO Reform: New Strategies to Advance weapons (including the ‘robust nuclear earth penetrator’) is frighten- International and National Security ing many because of the US adminis- Erika Simpson, University of Western Ontario tration’s apparent willingness to resort to their use. As the Bush Introduction procedures if it is to serve the com- administration declares: mon security interests of the allies “Given the goals of rogue states The end of the Cold War led to vastly and others. Today’s ongoing tumult and terrorists, the United States can reduced tensions between NATO and of change necessitates that traditional no longer solely rely on a reactive the Warsaw Pact. Yet the new millen- policies be seriously reconsidered posture as we have in the past. The nium has been marked by the contin- and, perhaps, drastically reevaluated. inability to deter a potential attacker, uance of NATO—indeed its great As September 11th, 2001 made evi- the immediacy of today’s threats, and expansion—as well as increased dent, old ways of thinking no longer the magnitude of potential harm that American tendencies to resort to uni- apply to the world we live in. This could be caused by our adversaries’ lateral and isolationist measures. article suggests strategies to reform choice of weapons, do not permit While many people think of the UN NATO in order to enhance national that option. We cannot let our ene- as a fifty-year old institution in need and international security. mies strike first….To forestall or pre- of reform, NATO is also a middle- vent such hostile acts the US will, if aged organization in need of reform. NATO’s Approach Toward necessary, act pre-emptively.”1 Wholesale reform will not work. Nuclear Weapons The development of nuclear Reforms must be cumulative, built Dangerous American attitudes weapons-related technology and pos- gradually on existing foundations. toward pre-emptive nuclear war sible acquisition by terrorist groups For instance, the decision to invite Many Europeans and Canadians fear or “rogue states” means the use of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia into that the Bush administration will nuclear weapons seems more ‘credi- the alliance was one kind of reform. resort to using nuclear weapons in a ble’ now than it has been since the The establishment of the Euro- future conflict. Although Russia, Cuban missile crisis. Whereas it is Atlantic Council and the NATO- China, France, and Britain officially certainly true that the Americans can- Russia Founding Act were others. retain the use of strategic nuclear not sit idly by while their security is But NATO needs a much greater weapons, American development of undermined, the route they are tak- transformation of its structures and new theatre and battlefield nuclear ing—asserting nuclear credibility— will result in a more insecure world with a greater, not less, likelihood of nuclear war. The Western alliance’s concepts of nuclear deterrence and nuclear pre-emption must move away from the traditional notion of ‘defending’ against threats—such as strategic/tactical nuclear weapons, rogue states or terrorists—towards an emphasis on minimal deterrence— and eventually nuclear abolition. But if the US continues on its present tra- jectory—threatening to respond or pre-empt a nuclear, biological or chemical attack with nuclear Bob Lawson and panel on Cooperative Security. weaponry—they will incite an arms

82 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference race where states will also seek to the US developed ‘flexible response’.3 from attacking. During the Cold War, deter or pre-empt using new types of While NATO recently conducted a strategists assumed that by threaten- weapons like “enhanced radiation review process, its reexamination of ing massive retaliation, nuclear weapons”, “space control satellites” the Strategic Concept simply weapons could credibly prevent an and “nuclear-survivable communica- reaffirmed its central tenet—that enemy from attacking. September th tions systems.” The costs for the nuclear weapons are “essential”. 11 demonstrated there are no guar- world will be enormous as countries Although NATO decision-makers antees that the threat of retaliation compete to design weapons for possi- assert that the “Paragraph 32” will succeed in preventing an ble use against undeterrable terror- process is finished, the door needs to attack—indeed, it may be difficult to ists, on rogue-state battlefields or in be re-opened to further engagement retaliate against a sub-state outer space. As a new statement on on the question.4 opponent, like a terrorist group. Also nuclear weapons policy issued by the We need to remember that efforts traditional arguments against deter- board of the Nuclear Age Peace to change NATO’s deterrent policy rence still hold true. There are many Foundation states: can begin at the nation-state level. ways that deterrence could fail, “It is the US insistence on retain- The thrust for NATO’s recent review including misunderstanding, miscal- ing a nuclear weapons option that essentially began because Canada’s culation, poor communication, irra- sets the tone for the world as a parliament released a report calling tional leadership, and accident. whole, reinforcing the unwillingness for a re-examination of NATO’s But, of course, even if some allies of other nuclear weapons states to reliance on nuclear deterrence and seriously question the efficacy of rely- push for nuclear disarmament and the Strategic Concept. 5 The Cana- ing upon deterrence, there may inducing threatened or ambitious dian Foreign Minister Lloyd Axwor- appear to be little likelihood that states to take whatever steps are nec- thy committed his department to hard-line strategists will come to the essary, even at the risk of confronta- attempt to change NATO’s nuclear same conclusion, in part because it is tion and war with the United States, doctrine—for which he was often difficult to give up on long-held to develop their own stockpile of labelled a ‘nuclear nag.’6 Yet in the assumptions. Will this generation of nuclear weaponry. In this post-Sep- final analysis, even American diplo- NATO decision-makers have to retire th tember 11 climate, the United mats at NATO headquarters were or die before the allies can relinquish States has suddenly become for other impressed with the Canadian initia- their convictions about deterrence? In governments a country to be deterred tive and the determination of the For- each of Christopher Columbus’s four rather than, as in the Cold War, a eign Minister and his diplomatic voyages between 1492 and 1504, country practicing deterrence to dis- aides, particularly the Deputy Columbus believed that “he had courage aggression by others.2 Ambassador Robert McCrae.7 In a reached Asia, he was in Asia, and it similar fashion, working together was from Asia he returned. No one, Reassessing NATO’s reliance on with other like-minded countries, nothing, to the day of his death, ever nuclear deterrence strategy such as Germany and Norway, it made him relinquish that cherished Curiously, the NATO allies continue might be possible to reforge NATO’s conviction.”8 to profess their reliance on the strat- nuclear doctrine. On the other hand, recent egy of nuclear deterrence while the evidence indicates that, in the wake US moves toward a pre-emptive Problems with traditional of the September 11th crisis, ‘first-strike’ strategy that promises to assumptions about nuclear decision-makers in the highest eche- retaliate with nuclear weapons even deterrence lons of American decision-making— in the event of a ‘limited’ chemical or One of the main assumptions the including President Bush and his clos- biological attack. The situation is allies need to ask themselves in their est advisors—are coming to doubt similar to the 1960s when the allies reforging of doctrine is whether the efficacy of deterrence and try to continued to rely upon mutual nuclear weapons protect the alliance think more about this strategy. At a assured destruction (MAD) even as by deterring potential aggressors National Security Council on Octo-

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 83 53rd Pugwash Conference ber 9, Vice President Cheney and Sec- NATO in the Aftermath of the Franco-German ‘dovishness’ have retary of Defense Rumsfeld discussed Wars against Kosovo, Afghanistan, been considerable. For example, the the possibility that bin Laden (whom and Iraq former members of the Warsaw Pact they referred to as UBL) might have The lack of consensus about that either have joined or hope to weapons of mass destruction. “UBL NATO’s collective security join the alliance are asking whether might not be deterrable,” said guarantees France and Germany might be pre- Cheney. “Well,” the president said, The NATO allies responded swiftly pared to veto NATO counter- “sponsoring nations of UBL, those to the September 11 terror attacks, measures to help them in the event of that support him, might have some invoking Article V—the collective a crisis? These countries are particu- influence with him. Should we send defence provision—of the 1949 larly dependent on NATO’s collective some messages, private or public?” Washington Treaty the next day. security guarantee because they are We need to think some more about According the US Department of being asked to give up much of their 9 this, said Rumsfeld. Clearly strong Defense’s report on allied contribu- ‘all-round’ and ‘outdated’ defensive advocates of deterrence from the tions, the European allies in NATO capabilities in order to contribute ‘New Right’, like Bush, Cheney, and deployed AWACS aircraft to the US ‘specialist’ skills. All the allies need to Rumsfeld, now recognize that deter- by October 9. The UK and France engage in a discussion about when rence may fail to work with sub-state contributed support aircraft to the air and how Article V provisions will actors and many more alternatives campaign over Afghanistan, protect them during a crisis. are needed. deployed ground troops inside the Coping with American Since all the NATO allies depend country before the Taliban was over- heavy-handedness on a relationship of ‘extended deter- thrown, and dispatched naval forces Another fall-’out of the war against rence’ with the US (even if they pro- to the Indian Ocean for maritime sur- Iraq relates to perceptions of Ameri- fess to be nuclear-weapon free on veillance/interdiction operations. can heavy-handedness. US Secretary their own soil), it is incumbent upon Other NATO nations, most notably of Defense Rumsfeld threatened to each of them to re-examine Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands, pull NATO headquarters out of Brus- deterrence strategy with a view to also sent naval forces to the Indian sels unless Belgium agreed to repeal a generating a cornucopia of alterna- Ocean; Canada, Denmark, Germany, law which gives its courts universal tive strategies ranging from reassur- and Norway deployed special forces jurisdiction to try cases of genocide, ance to coercion. Verifiable treaties, inside Afghanistan; and the Czech war crimes and human rights viola- well-funded inspection regimes, cut- Republic deployed a chemical tions. While Belgian parliamentarians ting-edge technology, strong defence unit to the region. The did agree to change the law to cases sanctions, and enhanced control over NATO allies also provided the bulk in which either the victim or the fissile materials are needed in every of the 16-nation International Secu- accused were residents of Belgium, region of the world. But history 10 rity Assistance Force in Kabul. war crimes lawsuits had already been shows that the first steps towards a Apparently all the NATO allies were filed against US President George regional—then global—approach can in agreement about the necessity of a Bush, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, be taken by the leaders of individual collective response to the attack on US Secretary of State Colin Powell, nation-states through regional orga- America. But the atmosphere of con- General Tommy Franks, and Secre- nizations like NATO and the EU. sensus dissipated by March 2003 tary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.11 Each NATO ally needs to reconsider shortly before the US attack on Iraq. The new US propensity to its reliance on extended deterrence in In March 2003, Belgium, France, threaten others with extreme mea- light of the new types of threats and and Germany imposed a veto on the sures is, perhaps, most telling in the challenges the international commu- commencement of military planning United States’ recent decision to sus- nity now faces. to defend another member state, pend military assistance to six Turkey, in the event of hostilities with nations seeking NATO membership Iraq. To date, the effects of the because they failed to exempt US citi-

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zens from prosecution in the new rest of NATO combined. By one esti- think carefully about how they will International Criminal Court (ICC). mate, the US is now spending 45 per- spend their defence dollars and As the deadline passed for govern- cent more on nuclear weapons activi- where: Is there any need to prepare ments to sign exemption agreements ties than at the end of the Cold War. for high-intensity conflict, as NATO or face the suspension of military aid, And many American diplomats are did during the Cold War, and still Bush issued waivers for 22 countries eager to lecture Europeans and Cana- does? When and how should the but he did not include Bulgaria, Esto- dians about the need to increase their NATO allies contribute to UN-sanc- nia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and defence spending.14 The NATO allies tioned mid-intensity conflicts, such as Slovenia. It is not yet clear whether need to discuss whether American the Gulf War, or NATO-sanctioned these countries will sign bilateral plans to increase defence spending to mid-intensity conflicts, such as the waivers in order to obtain military such high levels are a greater threat war over Kosovo? What kinds of aid; but what is clear is that the Bush to the world’s security than small- American defence preparations in administration is taking a more scale tyrants like Saddam. Europe (e.g. in Turkey) might be per- aggressive approach than has ever In any discussion of whether the ceived as offensive and provocative, been seen in NATO corridors. The US itself now poses the most serious rather than defensive and necessary? allies should respond to aggressive threat to allied security, some facts bullying just as schools and mature need to be highlighted. After all, it is Sharing alternative threat adults respond—with a heavy better to judge a nation by what it assessments and intelligence emphasis on non-violence and does, not what it says. The US has yet For decades, NATO’s assessment of respectful confrontation.12 to take its nuclear arsenal off the high the threat has been shaped and influ- alert status of the Cold War. It has enced by American military threat New Types of Threats to not renounced first use of or threat to analyses. While Prime Minister Tony Allied Security use nuclear weapons under all Blair has been exonerated for taking Reconsidering the Nature of the circumstances. It opposes the Com- American intelligence at face value so Threat prehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) much so that he was able to argue, NATO needs to reconsider and and it has withdrawn from the ABM fairly convincingly, in favour of reevaluate perceived threats to the treaty. Plus it is making plans to attacking Iraq, citizens will not international community. Who is shorten the time needed to resume accept this sort of back-handed logic threatened, by whom, and how? For testing of new and more usable in future wars. In future, domestic a while, the fact that there was no nuclear weapons. The situation is publics will demand to see hard evi- longer a significant Soviet threat similar to a boy’s gang where the dence of a country’s professed tran- implied that security could be leader is hell-bent on a dangerous gressions, even if the Americans preserved at much lower levels of course. Do the other boys follow him argue they have the evidence but it defence spending. Now the threats blindly or do they call a meeting to cannot be released for security rea- from Slobodan Milosevic, Osama bin argue about the club’s rules and prin- sons. Some of the lessons of the war Laden, and Saddam Hussein have led ciples? Being a member of the NATO against Iraq are that the NATO allies to calls for greater defence spending. club does not entail unquestioning need to undertake more of their own US President Bill Clinton planned to allegiance to the club’s leader. independent military threat increase the defence budget in his last Rather than respond in a knee- analysis.15 They need to institute the year in office by hundreds of billions jerk fashion to the United States’ infrastructure and procedures neces- of dollars, the largest hike in peace- remonstrations, NATO should imple- sary to carry out their own indepen- time history.13 Then in the wake of ment new kinds of defence prepara- dent threat analyses and share their September 11, US President George tions that are considered vital to findings. In conjunction with UN Bush announced his plan to increase NATO—and concomitantly the monitoring agencies and the defence budget in 2003 to $380 international community’s— international watchdog institutes, billion, more than double that of the concerns. Governments needs to NATO could unite with like-minded

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nations to provide the UN Security of threats are encouraged among the space-based defence programs. The Council with timely and accurate 25 allies. On the other hand, such an allies should re-emphasize their com- threat assessments based on new atmosphere of conciliation and mitment to the basic tenets of the information (and possibly conflicting acceptance may take a long time and Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty analyses of the threat). Such alterna- patient nurturing. As the Ditchley (although the US and Russia chose to tive threat assessments might play a Foundation concluded in a recent dis- abandon the ABM Treaty) and work valuable role in ameliorating tensions cussion of NATO’s future role: to ensure that aspects of the missile and defusing arms spirals in the “Whatever the underlying causes, defense program associated with weeks and months preceding possible most of us agreed that this level of NORAD do not violate the ABM multilateral or unilateral actions, transatlantic insult had not been seen Treaty’s basic principles. such as air strikes. before and that it had contributed to New Threats and Challenges to an unnecessary crisis, the effects of NATO and the World’s Security Promoting an atmosphere of which would be with us for some conciliation through NATO time. There was a good deal of bro- The Threat of Russian Nuclear Naturally, critics will retort that shar- ken crockery about.”17 Proliferation ing intelligence—especially contrary The possibility of Russian nuclear evidence as to the nature of the Threats to North American Security weapons and fissile material falling threat—will not necessarily harness The decline of the Soviet threat previ- into the wrong hands is great. the Bush administration from under- ously meant that the North American Desperate conditions exist in nuclear taking pre-emptive or unilateralist Aerospace Defence Command cities and biological institutes across measures. For many American diplo- (NORAD) was no longer as impor- Russia. Many weapons scientists and mats at NATO, the lessons of the tant to North American security. But engineers are not being paid. The sale Kosovo campaign in 1999 and the now some argue that preparing for of nuclear weapons, materials, tech- Franco-German rebuff in 2003 rein- possible warfare in space is necessary, nology, and the flight of nuclear sci- forced their belief that NATO is far and the US (probably in conjunction entists to other countries is inade- too cumbersome and bureaucratic. with Canada) will work through quately monitoried. A sharp drop in Now that targets have to be NORAD to develop space-based weapons research spending has left approved by a consensus of all 25 interception capabilities. In his thousands of scientists, engineers, members of the NATO club, “coali- annual report released on 10 June, and technicians in near poverty.20 tions of coalitions” may seem more the Chief of Canada’s Defence staff, NATO should work with other like- practical16, as exemplified by the General Ray Henault, stated that minded states through the Interna- United States’ ‘coalition of the will- Canada had a common interest with tional Scientific and Technical Center ing’ in Iraq. Even if one or more of the US in developing a missile defence (ISTC) in the former Soviet Union to the NATO allies puts forward con- system.18 In Europe, concerns have provide Russian scientists with more tradictory evidence about the nature long been raised about the European long-term research grants and pro- of the threat, the US and members of allies’ possible contributions to the grams that promote alternative civil- its ‘fast alliance’ may choose not to US military’s global surveillance, ian employment.21 NATO should accept evidence stemming from alter- warning, and communications sys- also propose that an international native sources. A great deal will tems.19 As many Europeans have registrar of scientists be set-up depend on the quality of the intelli- pointed out, the American govern- through the UN to track the research gence and in this respect, the more ment needs to be especially careful activities of all scientists in the world. independent European partners in that it is not perceived to be intent Similar to the UN Arms Registrar, NATO (France, Germany and the upon erecting some kind of ‘Fortress cooperation would have to be volun- UK) could have a lot to offer. NATO America.’ NATO governments tary (in order to preserve academic headquarters should inculcate a cul- should maintain official positions of freedom). However, over time such a ture where competing interpretations nonparticipation in active missile and registrar could contribute to

86 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference increased transparency, openness, to be placed atop the country’s mis- turing industries from seeking mili- and scientific security. siles, which could put Japan at risk. tary contracts in the Asia-Pacific and The DPRK claims it decided to with- Middle Eastern regions. Negative Reinforcing the Nunn-Lugar draw from the NPT “to preserve its inducements could include the elimi- Program sovereignty and defend the country nation of government subsidies and What can be done through NATO to against the continuous moves from grants and the closure of loopholes further enhance Russia’s nuclear sta- the USA to isolate it.”22 It would that permit tax breaks for research bility? Much of the problem stems appear that this is a conflict between and development for military pur- from Russia’s weakness, not its the US and the DPRK which should poses. Government trade missions strength. NATO should press Russia not concern the other NATO allies and foreign service officers should to continue to centralize control of its (except Canada, which would be also be actively discouraged from nuclear arsenal and consolidate within range of a threatened nuclear promoting significant military indus- nuclear weapons on Russian soil. attack by North Korea on Seattle). try contracts overseas. Each ally must More technological and monetary But the Great Powers (US, Russia, take action so as not to become an assistance for Russia is necessary. China, UK, and France) and smaller important supplier of assemblies, Estimates are that only 37 percent of European allies cannot absolve them- components, and sub-components to the potentially vulnerable nuclear selves of responsibility for the present arms manufacturers in the United material in the former Soviet Union is hair-trigger situation. The failure of States. being adequately protected. The the nuclear weapon states to imple- NATO allies can help with more ment their NPT obligations under Future Rounds of NATO Enlargement funds in order to avoid a nuclear Article VI of the NPT means many tragedy from occurring. They might countries like North Korea have the Delay Further Rounds of Expansion also issue a challenge to other rich excuse they seek to obtain nuclear The first round of NATO expansion nations, such as Saudia Arabia and arsenals of their own. took place in the spring of 1999 Japan, to contribute substantial without widespread Russian The Threat of Conventional amounts. With like-minded nations, approval. Although Russian Presi- Weapons Proliferation NATO could also sponsor anti-leak- dent Boris Yeltsin conceded at the age programs at Russian nuclear The United States is the largest con- last moment to the idea of inviting facilities. As non-nuclear players, tributor in the world to the arms the Czech Republic, Hungary, and allies such as Belgium, Canada, and trade and arms trafficking. Compared Poland into NATO, all the Russian the Czech Republic could be to the other Great Powers, it has an parties and most Russians were perceived as neutral third parties gen- over-sized military industry that pro- opposed to NATO’s enlargement uinely interested in reducing leakage motes American wares with zeal. The from 16 to 19 nations. The second of information and nuclear materials Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions round of expansion, agreed upon in from Russian nuclear storage and are engaged in regional arms races 2002, also runs the risk of inciting launching sites. and eager to obtain American old hatreds and new insecurities. The weapons systems. Countries like seven former Soviet bloc nations due North Korea’s Nuclear Program Saudia Arabia are flush with petro- to join the alliance next year are: Bul- The announcement by the Democra- dollars and demand American garia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, tic People’s Republic of Korea defence products. American compa- Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia. At (DPRK) of withdrawal from the Non nies such as General Motors, are con- 25 members, NATO will have diffi- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was dis- tributing to the worldwide arms race culty forging a consensus and the US turbing but still more frightening is in acquiring conventional weapons. has already expressed interest in recent news that North Korea is All the NATO allies, particularly the working closely, if necessary, with a developing technology that could United States, need to actively dis- few close allies, not the entire make nuclear warheads small enough courage their own domestic manufac- unwieldy apparatus.

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The alliance should postpone any Russia to remain engaged in discus- drastic cuts in equipment and slim- decisions about soliciting newer sions at Brussels. Russia needed more ming down its organizational struc- members (such as Japan23) to avoid incentives and more reassurances. tures; its focus has switched to peace- further tensions with Russia, a strong Then during the war on Afghanistan, keeping, crisis management, and the opponent of NATO expansion and Russia supported the US war against war against terrorism, rather than the air wars against Yugoslavia and terrorism. But the recent controversy defending itself from Cold War Iraq. The United States and the other about attacking Iraq revealed that, attacks. On the other hand, Canada NATO allies should delay opening even despite its desperate need for US has recently increased its defence the door to further NATO enlarge- funding, Russia was against attacking spending on capital and equipment ment until the Russian leadership Iraq without the UN Security Coun- sharply. Although Canada’s continu- considers that it is an integral part of cil’s approval. The US went ahead, ing fiscal problems, and its prom- Europe’s emerging security despite opposition from Russia, inent role as a proponent of disarma- architecture. China, Canada, and a host of other ment, should constrain its spending countries. It is still too early to say on defence, the country is setting a Include Russia in NATO what the damage has been but evi- poor example which other states NATO’s first priority should be not dently Russia needs to be consulted, could follow. Increasing defence to create new dividing lines. A not ignored. More incentives could spending is not an option for respon- reformed NATO, which did not aim include formally embedded consulta- sible policy-makers. to include the most powerful country tion mechanisms, a mutual non- Many European defence lobbyists in Europe, Russia, would be fatally aggression pledge, and a promise bemoan the continent’s low level of flawed. The NATO allies should to develop non-offensive defence spending on defence but domestic strive to engage NATO and Russia in systems. publics will not tolerate higher levels an active, cooperative relationship of spending. The newer allies will The NATO Allies’ Approaches that would form the cornerstone of a have a tough time coming up with toward Worldwide Defence new, inclusive security structure in the money to bring their militaries up Spending Europe. The allies must act strongly to NATO’s basic standards of inter- through NATO, the UN and other Maintain Low Levels of Defence operability. multilateral institutions, such as the Spending One defence official noted that G-8 and the International Monetary Since 1997, high-level Americans, Hungary promised to meet 14 of its Fund, to invite Russia into Western such as the US Ambassador to initial 48 goals by its acceptance in security and economic structures. Canada, have repeatedly emphasized March 1999 but as of June 2000 had NATO’s air attacks on Serbia, the need for other NATO members to completed only six. “The reason is Kosovo, and Afghanistan, make it increase overall military spending.24 not our commitment; the reason is even more imperative that the alliance Overall, the non-US NATO members money,” that official said.25 Taking a make a supreme effort to welcome spent an average of 1.9 percent of strategic view, however, Hungary’s Russia into European decision-mak- GDP on defence in 2001 as geographic location allows NATO to ing circles. During the Kosovo war, compared to 2.0 percent in 2000. project into Eastern Europe, and Russia suspended all contacts with The Czech Republic, France, Greece, Hungary has played an active role in NATO and took its soldiers in Bosnia Italy, Poland, Portugal, Turkey, and the Bosnia and Kosovo operations as from under NATO command. Rus- the United Kingdom ranked at or a host nation supporting NATO’s sia’s decision to step back from above this average. All other 11 deployments and logistics. Similarly, involvement in NATO, within hours NATO members fell below this aver- Poland is playing a useful role in of the attack on the former age, highlighting that American charge of NATO’s peacekeeping mis- Yugoslavia, indicated that the provi- remonstrations to spend more are sion in Iraq. At a meeting in Brussels sions of the NATO-Russia Founding failing to convince. in June 2003, Spain and Ukraine Act were insufficiently attractive for For example, Germany is making each committed to head a brigade of

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an 8,000-strong multinational divi- NATO’s Approach toward Response Force,’ ready to deploy sion to help stabilize Iraq, which will Peacekeeping within days after its creation in 2003. be led by Poland with NATO’s NATO overhaul emphasizes rapidly At the same time as these peace- support. deployable capabilities keeping initiatives are being planned, the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) Most of the NATO allies, including Calculate each ally’s defence is contributing between 25,000 and the United States, are participating spending fairly 32,000 alliance and non-alliance more heavily in peacekeeping under In forthcoming analyses of the allies’ troops. The Stabilization Force NATO auspices than in the past. abilities to meet an agreed-upon set (SFOR, formerly IFOR) in Bosnia- NATO foreign ministers announced of capabilities pledges—the “Prague Herzegovina includes about 13,000 two new missions this year: Capabilities Commitments”—the NATO and non-NATO troops. commanding the International Secu- newer NATO allies need to factor Finally, NATO members have been rity Assistance Force in Afghanistan into the equation alternative sorts of patrolling the Eastern Mediterranean and assisting in Poland’s command of commitments (e.g. to UN and since the terrorist attacks of 2001, a a NATO-supported peacekeeping NATO-sponsored peacekeeping) mission called Operation Active force in Iraq. NATO is also improv- because they also improve the Endeavour. ing its ability to act far beyond alliance’s military preparedness and But the risk is that as NATO Europe and North America through close the spending gap between the involves its allies in more “out-of- a major restructuring that includes US and its European allies. Even the area” operations, similar to Kosovo, cutbacks at NATO headquarters in EU’s efforts to field a rapid-reaction Afghanistan, and Iraq, the rest of the Belgium and a stronger presence in force of 60,000 personnel by 2003 world will come to perceive NATO the United States. A new command should count as a monetary contribu- peacekeepers as defenders of the centre in Norfolk, Va will oversee tion to NATO’s security. After all, US American empire. There needs to be this modernization. More robust, calculations of their percentage of areturn to the UN as the chief guar- rapidly deployable capabilities will GDP spent on NATO include all US antor of safety because of the wide- change NATO into “a much more defence spending worldwide—includ- spread perception that the ‘NATO nimble, deployable, action-oriented ing US spending in the Middle East club’ consists mainly of Northern, organization.” According to Cana- on defence and American foreign mil- ‘rich’, ‘white’ nations based in North dian Defence Minister John McCal- itary assistance to Columbia—so it America and Europe. lum, such a “major streamlining” is makes sense to silence critics ques- “a cultural change that will be tioning whether NATO’s European Return to the UN with increased significant.”26 members have the will to deliver on funding and contribute to the The most significant change their spending promises by asking SHIRBRIG affects NATO operations, which NATO officials to calculate spending The UN continues to experience a were formerly divided between a estimates on all types of defence funding crisis due to member states’ European and an Atlantic command. expenditures. Individual countries failure to honour their financial The two will be merged under Allied should also consider threatening to obligations. Member states of the Command Operations, based in Bel- halt payment for the costs of NATO UN invest an average of $1.40 in gium and under the authority of US enlargement until the United States UN peacekeeping activities for every General James Jones. A new entity agrees to its fair share of assessed UN $1000 spent on their own armed called “Allied Command Transfor- dues. If high-level American officials forces. For example, for every dollar mation” is also being created to admonish the allies for reduced that it has invested in UN peacekeep- supervise changes to NATO’s mili- spending on defence, Europeans and ing, the United States has tended to tary capabilities, including efforts at Canadians should remind them of the spend over $2000 on its own joint training between alliance mem- United States’ failure to pay its UN military.27 The NATO allies need to bers. The most significant develop- dues fully. contribute more money and person- ment will be a 20,000-strong ‘NATO

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 89 53rd Pugwash Conference nel to UN peacekeeping or run the tions in the new era. However, efficient means of achieving risk of being accused of trying to NATO’s institutions and peacekeep- commonly-valued objectives, includ- maintain the status quo through ing infrastructure remain much the ing the ouster of Saddam Hussein. NATO peacekeeping. One effective same as they were during the Cold One important lesson is that every way to do this would be to contribute War, despite the explosion of new NATO ally—not just the current stand-by forces and equipment to the operations. The promising concept of hegemon—have a duty and responsi- UN’s Standby High Readiness the Lester B. Pearson Canadian Inter- bility to put forward new ideas and Brigade (SHIRBRIG). Fifteen coun- national Peacekeeping Training Cen- proposals to enhance international tries are contributing to the brigade, tre in Cornwallis, Nova Scotia must and national security. As Professor which successfully monitored the be fully developed and implemented James Eayrs suggested over thirty ceasefire between Eritrea and as its original architects intended.30 years ago in Fate and Will in Foreign Ethiopia, but more contributors and The Pearson Peacekeeping Training Policy: resources are needed. SHIRBRIG Centre is currently only a shell of “Force is the monopoly of the aims to provide the UN with a jump- what it could be. The Chretien gov- Great Powers, for all the good it does start, rapid deployment force of as ernment arguably implemented it them. But Great Powers enjoy no many as 5,000 troops within 30 days purely for electoral purposes, not to monopoly over ideas. The foreign notice.28 While NATO’s new ‘Rapid make real changes to the military’s minister of a small state may not be Reaction Force’ will be perceived as approach to peacekeeping. The able to summon a gunboat in aid of US-led and status-quo oriented, each Canadian government must ensure his diplomacy, to carry a big stick let participating state in SHIRBRIG that the Pearson Peacekeeping Train- alone to brandish it. But he can carry reserves the right to decide whether ing becomes widely regarded as one a briefcase well enough, and stock it to deploy national personnel on a of the best peacekeeping training cen- with proposals.”31 case-by-case basis. Canada currently tres in the world, an invaluable Notes holds the chair and presidency of the resource for the Canadian Forces, brigade. And there is some hope that NATO, and peacekeepers worldwide. 1U.S. National Security Strategy: Prevent it could be deployed to avert geno- It must become a centre of learning Our Enemies From Threatening Us, cide in the Democratic Republic of for all ranks—not just a place for Our Allies, And Our Friends with Weapons of Mass Destruction, Septem- the Congo.29 officers and civilians to share peace- ber, 2002, p. 1 available at keeping ideas and experiences. www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/wh/15425.htm Improve NATO’s Peacekeeping 2“The Challenge of Nuclear Weapons in Training Conclusion the Twenty-First Century: A Path For- NATO could do more to help mem- NATO has limited time and a small ward,” June 15, 2003, ber states adjust to their peacekeep- window of opportunity to take http://waginpeace.org/articles/03.06/06 ing responsibilities. Peacekeeping advantage of its fairly benign reputa- 13kireger_21centruy.htm 3 duties now include the monitoring tion. It is highly unlikely that this For more information, see Erika Simp- son, NATO and the Bomb: Canadian and administration of elections, pre- regional military alliance will be seen Defenders Confront Critics, (Kingston ventive deployment, humanitarian in such a positive light ten years from & Montreal: McGill-Queen’s Univer- and human rights functions, the now. Indeed, NATO is well-situated sity Press), 2001, ch. 3 enforcement of UN Security Council to make the important changes pro- 4For further analysis, see Pugwash resolutions, and nation-building posed thus far in this article because Canada’s presentation to DFAIT, “The mandates. The burden of peacekeep- the NATO allies did not acquiesce to Only Absolute Guarantee”, April 2003, ing for NATO has dramatically American pressure to join the war on pp. 4-6 5 increased and many NATO allies Iraq. It was evident from France, Report of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International have valuable experience and knowl- Germany, and Canada’s reluctance to Trade, “Canada and the Nuclear Chal- edge that could be used to reshape join the war that not everyone could lenge: Reducing the Political Value of NATO and other multilateral institu- agree on the best methods and most Nuclear Weapons for the Twenty-First

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Century,” (Ottawa: Publications Ser- mittee on Security and Intelligence,” 25 Integrating New Allies into NATO,” vice), December 1998. January 1999, p. 53-56. October 2000, Ch. 3, Restructuring 6Senator Douglas Roche, Chairman, 16According to US Secretary of Defense and Modernization, p. 3, available at Canadian Pugwash Group and Ernie Donald Rumsfeld and Secretary of State http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?idex Regehr, Executive Director, Project Colin Powell in Bob Woodward, Bush =2665&sequence=4 Ploughshares, “Canada, NATO and at War, p. 49 26Daniel Leblanc, “NATO overhaul Nuclear Weapons,” Toronto, March 17The Ditchley Foundation’s News and boosts U.S. role,” June 13, 2003 17, 2001, available at http://www.sen. Conference Reports, Report by the 27Roger Coate, ed., US Policy and the parl.gc.ca/droche/writings/documents/ Director, “The Future Role of NATO”, Future of the United Nations, (New nuclear/cannatonw.pdf February 21-23, 2003, p. 1, available at York: Twentieth Century Fund Press, 7Interview by the author with Canada’s http://www.ditchley.co.uk/news/13.htm 1994), 12. Deputy Ambassador to NATO, Robert 18Ottawa Citizen, 11 June 2003 28Howard Peter Langille, Bridging the McCrae, February 2001 and off-record 19 Commitment-Capacity Gap: A Review comments by senior members of the US Ann Denholm Crosby, “Defining Secu- of Existing Arrangements and Options Delegation to NATO, February 2001. rity Environments for Global Gover- nance: Canada and the US ‘Global Pro- for Enhancing UN Rapid Deployment 8 Quoted in David Campbell, Writing tection System’,” Global Governance, Capabilities (United States: Centre for Security: United States Foreign Policy 4, 1998, p. 331-353. UN Reform Education), August 2002 and the Politics of Identity, Minneapo- 20 29Howard Peter Langille, “Don’t shrug lis: University of Minnesota Press), For example, see “Science in Russia: off the next Rwanda,” Globe and Mail, 1992 p. 93. For more information on The diamonds in the rubble,” The May 27, 2003 the powerful impact of belief systems Economist, 8 November 1997 at 30 on decision-making, see Erika Simpson, http://www.istc.ru/n10.htm Common Security Consultants, [H. NATO and the bomb, chs. 3 & 5. 21Susan Eisenhower, “The Proliferation Peter Langille and Erika Simpson], A 1994 Blueprint for a Canadian and 9Bob Woodward, Bush at War, p. 228 of Russian Know-How,” The Washing- ton Post, 16 January 1998; p. A21 at International Peacekeeping Training 10 US Department of Defense, “Report on http://www.istc.ru/n12.htm. See also Centre at CFB Cornwallis, (Halifax: Allied Contributions to the Common Victor Alessi and Ronald F. Lehman II, Government of Nova Scotia, 1994), Defense, Chapter I Executive Summary, “Science in the Pursuit of Peace: The 106 p., reprinted in Minutes of available at Success and Future of the ISTC,” Arms Proceedings of the Special Joint Com- http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/ Control Today, June/July 1998 at mittee of the Senate and the House of allied_contrib2002/02-Chptr1/02- http://www.istc.ru/n14.htm Commons on Canada’s Defence Policy, Chptr_tx.html issue no. 21, June 14 1994, p. A1-123 22See http://www.korea-dpr.com/npt.htm 11For more information, see The and see Common Security Consultants 23The notion of accepting Japan into the Sunflower, July 2003, No. 74; New and Stratman Consulting Inc. alliance surfaced in 1997. Part of the York Times, 14 June 2003; Wall Street [Brigadier-General Clayton Beattie], appeal is that Japan spent 1 percent of Journal, 13 June 2003 CFB Cornwallis: Canada’s Peacekeep- its GDP on defense in 2001, however its 12 ing Training Centre—A Blueprint for a Barry and Janae Weinhold, “America at defence budget was second only to the Peacekeeping Training Centre of Excel- a Crossroads: How Should We US in absolute terms. While Japan’s lence, (Halifax: Government of Nova Respond to Terrorism?” The Colorado history and constitution have limited Scotia, 1992), 70 p., reprinted in Min- Institute for Conflict Resolution and the size of its defence forces and utes of Proceedings of the Standing Creative Leadership, September, 2001, discouraged their deployment abroad, Committee on National Defence and available at http://weinholds.org/ Japan ranked second of all countries in Veterans Affairs, issue no. 45, 1 April terror.htm cost sharing, offsetting 79 percent of US 1993. 13AP Online, “Clinton would boost Mili- stationing costs in 2000. See US Depart- 31 tary Money,” 19 January 1999. ment of Defense, “Report on Allied James Eayrs, Fate and Will in Foreign Policy, (Toronto: Seven talks for the 14Ambassador Gordon D. Giffin, “The Contributions to the Common Canadian Broadcasting Corporation), Challenges of Shared Security,” Defense,” 2002, p. 4 1967, p.84. Remarks to the Canadian Club of 24For example, see; “US Ambassador Montreal, 11 January 1999; slams Canada’s Defence Budget, Sep- 15A similar recommendation was made in tember 4, 2002, available at Erika Simpson is Associate Professor 1999 by Canada’s Special Senate Com- http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/ of Political Science at University of story/CTVNews/20020904/cellucci_ mittee on Security and Intelligence, Western Ontario. “The Report of the Special Senate Com- defense_020903/Canada/story/

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Afghanistan and the Genesis of Global Jihad imity, the Soviet interest in Afghanistan was greater. Aid to Pervez Hoodbhoy, Quaid-e-Azam University Afghanistan—motivated both by ideals of internationalist solidarity The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in strength. It now exists with extensive and the desire to increase political late 1979 turned out to be—contrary transnational cooperation, coordina- influence—became of considerable to the expectations of the Kremlin tion, and close ties. Indeed these non- significance during the first decade of leadership—the largest, longest, and state actors have repeatedly targeted the Cold War. By 1956, Afghanistan costliest military operation in Soviet their former sponsors, as well as possessed Mig-17s, Ilyushin-28s, and history. The United States, in support other states and governments glob- T-34 tanks. Suspicions of Soviet of the Afghan resistance, waged an ally—Pakistan, India, Egypt, Saudi desires to install a socialist regime in exceedingly elaborate, expensive, and Arabia, Philippines, Indonesia, Rus- Afghanistan were sometimes aired in ultimately successful covert war. sia, and the United States have been the West. But, as a highly fragmented Unlike other proxy wars in Africa attacked in recent times. Islamic tribal society, Afghanistan and South America, for the first time appeared a highly unlikely candidate ever, the United States supported a Prologue To The Soviet Invasion for socialism. Tribal law and tradi- guerrilla army firing on Soviet Building upon the crumbled edifice of tions held sway, making it impossible troops. With Pakistan’s General Zia- European colonialism, the United for Afghanistan to function as a mod- ul-Haq as America’s foremost ally States had emerged as a superpower ern nation state. There was neither a and Saudi Arabia as the principal at the end of the Second World War proletariat, nor a feudal system in the source of funds, the CIA openly with vast global strategic and usual sense. Even today cave-dwellers recruited Islamic holy warriors from economic interests. Desolate and are common in Afghanistan. The Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and tribal, Afghanistan was of only mar- subsistence economy provided no Algeria. Radical Islam went into ginal interest. Although there were market of any interest. overdrive as its superpower ally and some attempts to increase US influ- Significant changes, with Soviet mentor funneled support to the ence through economic aid in the support, began occurring in the mujahiddin. In 1988 Soviet troops early 1950’s this dry, mountainous period of Sardar Muhammad Daud withdrew unconditionally and US- and barren land was understood to Khan who served as the prime minis- Pakistan-Saudi-Egypt alliance have no significant strategic or eco- ter of Afghanistan 1953-1963. The emerged victorious. A chapter of his- nomic value. Indeed, there had been first Afghan university was tory seemed complete. implicit acceptance of Afghanistan as established in Kabul, and in parts of Appearances were illusory, how- belonging to the Soviet sphere of the country a small start was made ever, and events over the next two influence. For example, in the Eisen- on public education. Daud’s brother- decades were to reveal the true costs hower era, Secretary of State John in-law, Muhammad Zahir Shah, had of the victory. Even in the mid 1990’s Foster Dulles had turned down been the King of Afghanistan since —long before the 9/11 attack on the Afghan requests for American arms. 1933. In 1963, he suddenly dismissed United States—it was clear that the Moreover it placed high value upon Daud. Ten years later, Daud staged a victorious alliance had unwittingly Pakistan, a key US ally in the fight coup, returned to power, and abol- created a dynamic now beyond its against communism, and saw no rea- ished the monarchy. Zahir Shah was control. The network of Islamic mili- son to offend it. Pakistan had—and exiled to Rome (from where he even- tant organizations created primarily still has—a simmering border dispute tually returned after the 9/11 attack). out of the need to fight the Soviets in with Afghanistan over the legitimacy Daud was supported by some Army Afghanistan did not disappear after of the “Durand Line” by which officers who later joined the Afghan the immediate goal was achieved but, British colonialism had rather arbi- Communist Party, and by Babrak instead, like any good military-indus- trarily divided the two countries. Karmal, a leftist politician. (Six years trial complex, grew from strength to Because of its geographical prox- later, when the Soviets invaded, they

92 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference installed Karmal as President of Hafizullah Amin, an instructor at the law, was deemed an offence, as were Afghanistan.) By all accounts, the Teachers’ Training School in Kabul, barter marriages. Female education Kremlin leadership was entirely satis- had just received an M.A. at Teachers was declared compulsory. These fied with the state of affairs in the College of Columbia University in reforms were to end tragically, but early years of Daud’s rule. Soviet New York. He was described by the reason was not just the conser- influence grew, and the Soviet Union some as “all charm and friendliness” vatism of Afghan society. From the became Afghanistan’s leading trading but ultimately was directly responsi- very beginning, the PDPA pursued a partner as well as its leading arms ble for the execution of probably disastrous course calculated to pro- supplier. 6000 political opponents. Babrak voke resistance among the people. By abolishing the monarchy, how- Karmal also had a devoted disciple— Taraki’s name occurred repeatedly ever, Daud had removed the one sym- a former medical student named during a radio or TV broadcast with bol of legitimacy that had held Najibullah. In each case, the disciple ludicrous titles appended to it, his Afghanistan together and established ousted his patron in order to assume house was turned into a “revolution- the idea of seizing political power the presidency of Afghanistan. Today ary shrine”, and his shoes, pens, and through a military coup. A small they are all dead. inkpots were put on display. The tra- Marxist party, The People’s Democ- In 1978, despite bitter divisions, ditional Afghan flag with colors of ratic Party of Afghanistan, under the the PDPA was able to pull together Islam was replaced with a red banner. leadership of Nur Muhammad enough unity to engineer a coup Inexperienced and imperious bureau- Taraki, was to carry this tradition against Daud. The Soviet Union, crats from Kabul infuriated the peas- much further. From its inception the which was watching the Shah of ants by enforcing clumsy “land- PDPA was bitterly divided into two Iran’s overtures to Daud, had become reform”. It was almost as if the factions, each named after its respec- wary of Daud and saw a determined revolutionary leaders had decided, in tive newspaper. Taraki’s “Khalq” fac- effort to draw Afghanistan into a US- the name of progress, to outrage tion was made up mostly of Pushtuns tilted regional and economic sphere. every segment of Afghan society. from rural areas but it aspired to be a It endorsed the coup but controlling By the winter of 1978-79, Leninist working-class party. Babrak this most unorthodox Communist Afghanistan was up in arms against Karmal’s “Parcham” presented itself Party was a nearly impossible task, the communists. In the fall of 1978, as a broad national democratic front because its leadership was seriously supported by Pakistan, the Islamic- ready to work within the system. divided, with Karmal challenging fundamentalist guerrilla groups that Taraki for power from the very had operated against Daud between beginning. At the time of the coup, at 1973 and 1976 reentered least a third of the Afghan Army’s Afghanistan with a force of about officer corps was Soviet-trained. Nev- five thousand. There followed major ertheless, nobody in power, in armed rebellions, which the Afghanistan or outside it, foresaw the conscripts in the Afghan Army were coup. Taraki boasted that the news of unable to put down. Many of them, our revolution took both superpow- horrified at being asked to kill their ers by complete surprise. own kin, joined the resistance, bring- By a series of decrees, the PDPA ing their weapons with them. Units of set out to change Afghan society. To the Afghan Army in the provincial be sure, many of the reforms had capital of Asadabad defected en honorable intent. For example, child masse. In March of 1979, an uprising marriages were declared illegal and broke out in Herat, an ancient city the minimum marriageable age for near the Iranian border populated by

Mohamed Kadry Said and panel on Human girls was set at 16. The purchase and Shiites, who were enthralled by the Security and the Middle East. sale of women, sanctioned by tribal Khomeini revolution. These pro-Iran-

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 93 53rd Pugwash Conference ian rebels went from house to house ets to bring in ten thousand soldiers port for the Palestinian struggle, the looking for government collaborators to protect Kabul, so that he could Soviet Union blunted the criticism and Soviet advisers. About a thou- free Afghan forces to attack the substantially. Four months later the sand people, including a number of rebels in the countryside. denunciations began to fade. This Soviet advisers and their families, was understandable because many The Soviets Invade were killed; in reprisal, parts of the Arab countries had strong military city were destroyed. In June of 1979, In December 1979, Soviet troops and economic ties with the Soviet Tehran Radio broadcast the appeal of crossed the Afghan frontier and, for Union. a senior ayatollah calling upon the the first time since the end of the Sec- Reactions in the United States people of Afghanistan to rise up ond World War, forcibly entered the were much harsher. Many US com- against the Communists. The Shiite territory of a sovereign Muslim coun- mentators believed the invasion was population of the Hazarajat region try. The overriding reason for the the first move in a grand strategic staged another uprising. invasion was that the civil strife plan aimed at expanding Soviet As detailed in Raja Anwar’s semi- inside Afghanistan was viewed in the power. President Carter quickly nally important book ”The Tragedy Kremlin as “a seat of serious danger accepted the judgment of his of Afghanistan”, Soviet efforts to reg- to the security of the Soviet state” as national-security adviser, Zbigniew ulate Afghan affairs succeeded only Leonid Brezhnev put it two weeks Brzezinski, that the invasion was a in worsening the situation. On Sep- later. Afghanistan has a thousand- threat to the rest of the region. Carter tember 4, 1979, Anwar reports, mile border with the Muslim Central deemed the Soviet invasion as “the Taraki left for a visit to Havana, and Asian republics of the Soviet Union, greatest threat to peace since the Sec- in his absence one of his supporters which are populated by Tajiks, ond World War,” and on January 23, drew up plans to assassinate Amin. Uzbeks, and Turkmens peoples that 1980, he announced a policy that However upon Taraki’s return from a also inhabit Afghanistan. In 1978, came to be known as the Carter Doc- visit to Moscow, Amin ordered tanks there had been a riot of Tajiks against trine: “An attempt by any outside into all key points in Kabul and had the Russians in Dushanbe, a town on force to gain control of the Persian Taraki arrested and confined to his the Soviet side of the frontier. Toward Gulf region will be regarded as an quarters. Three weeks later, the the end of 1979, the Khomeini revo- assault on the vital interests of the founder of Afghanistan’s revolution- lution in Iran was stirring up Islamic United States of America, and such ary party was murdered, on Amin’s nationalism in the entire region, and an assault will be repelled by any orders. Though Amin moved quickly the taking of American hostages at means necessary, including military to placate the opposition, mostly by the American Embassy in Tehran on force.” US experts declared that promising religious freedom, and November 4th increased the possibil- Leonid Brezhnev had taken up Peter though he was given increasing ity of American military action the Great’s quest for a warm-water Soviet military help, he could neither against Iran within a few hundred port and may next break through put down the insurgency nor win miles of the Soviet border. landlocked Afghanistan to arrive wider political support. He turned to An extraordinary meeting of 35 eventually at the Persian Gulf by diplomacy to relieve the pressure, Islamic countries met in Islamabad invading either Pakistan or Iran. courting both Pakistan and the on January 27, 1980 to condemn the Afghanistan now became a metaphor United States. Yet at the same time he “Soviet military aggression against for the Soviet Union’s boundless kept asking for more Soviet military the Afghan people” and to urge that appetite and unpredictable behavior. aid. By July, there were fifteen hun- no Muslim country recognize the dred Soviet military advisers assigned Democratic Republic of Afghanistan America Organizes The Great Jihad to the Afghan Army, and a Soviet —the name given by the Soviet- History may well have taken a differ- light-airborne battalion was deployed installed government in Kabul. But, ent course if the year of the Soviet near Kabul for their protection. In pointing to the disunity in the Arab invasion had not also been the year late November, Amin asked the Sovi- world, and to its long-standing sup- for presidential elections in the US.

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But with Ronald Reagan as the rival tive Arab monarchies. This duty was organization and logistics, military candidate, Jimmy Carter could not accepted readily and they quickly technology, and ideological support afford to appear soft on the Soviets. made the Afghan Jihad their central for sustaining and encouraging the Angrily condemning Soviet expan- cause. It was a natural course of Afghan resistance. sionism, Carter withdrew the SALT II action to take. First, they felt With William Casey as the direc- treaty from consideration by the Sen- genuinely threatened by the Soviets. tor of the CIA, the largest covert ate, announced that the United States Second, it shielded their patron and operation in history was launched would boycott the Moscow ally, the United States, whose direct after Reagan signed the “National Olympics, and prepared a major mili- confrontation with the Soviets would Security Decision Directive 166”, tary buildup, which included a Rapid have been dangerous and unwise in a calling for American efforts to drive Deployment Force, intended primar- nuclear-armed world. But still more Soviet forces from Afghanistan “by ily for the Persian Gulf. The Adminis- importantly, to go heart and soul for all means available”. US counter- tration requested approval for a jihad was crucial at a time when insurgency experts worked closely C.I.A. covert operation in Saudi legitimacy as the guardians of with the ISI in organizing mujahideen Afghanistan, and offered Pakistan Islam was under strong challenge by groups and in planning operations four hundred million dollars in aid, Iran, which pointed to the continued inside Afghanistan. Indeed, it was which General Zia-ul-Haq, Pakistan’s occupation of Palestine by America’s evident to residents in Islamabad and military ruler, dismissed as “peanuts” partner, Israel. An increasing number Peshawar in the 1980’s that large in an astute political move. Suddenly, of Saudis were becoming disaffected numbers of Americans were present Afghanistan had become the focal by the House of Saud—its and involved in mysterious activities. point of American global strategy. corruption, self-indulgence, repres- But the most important contribution From the day the Soviets invaded, sion, and closeness to the US. There- of the US was to create international American diplomatic strategy was to fore, the Jihad in Afghanistan pro- linkages and bring in men and mater- mobilize world opinion against the vided an excellent outlet for the ial from around the Arab world and Soviets. American ire was aroused growing number of militant Sunni beyond. The most hardened and ide- not out of sympathy for the particu- activists in Saudi Arabia, and a way ologically dedicated men were sought lar victim but by the act of aggression to deal with the daily taunts of the on the logic that they would be the itself and what it portended for the Iranian clergy. best fighters. Advertisements, paid future. Afghanistan was doomed to Support for the Mujahideen also for from CIA funds, were placed in be a domino. Officials like Richard fitted perfectly with the Reagan Doc- newspapers and newsletters around Perle, Assistant Secretary of defense, trine—a global package of widely the world offering inducements and saw Afghanistan not as the locale of publicized covert aid for anti-Com- motivations to join the Jihad. a harsh and dangerous conflict to be munist guerrillas fighting the estab- At the initial stage of the US ended but as a place to teach the Rus- lished governments in Nicaragua, involvement, fears that the Soviet sians a lesson. Such “bleeders” Angola, Kampuchea, and Union would react harshly against became the most influential people in Afghanistan. Now the United States Pakistan prompted caution in supply- Washington. decided to play in the global game of ing arms and military technology to Given the highly conservative guerrilla politics and to do what the the Afghan resistance. Therefore the nature of Afghan society and the Soviets had done in the sixties and strategy then was to minimize the spontaneous resistance to the Afghan seventies when they had encouraged appearance of American involvement communist resistance, it did not need wars of national liberation. The US and so preserve deniability. Indeed, in a genius to suggest that Islamic inter- would henceforth do the same by the early years, the CIA procured national solidarity could be used as a sponsoring right-wing guerrilla arms of Soviet manufacture captured powerful weapon. The task of creat- movements in the eighties. by the Israelis during various Middle ing such solidarity fell upon Saudi The US supplied support package Eastern wars and even manufactured Arabia, together with other conserva- had three essential components— simulated Soviet arms in a clandes-

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 95 53rd Pugwash Conference tine factory. Some time into the war, on the “brave fighters for freedom” American values on Afghan however, the US began to take a and special documentary programs educators”. much more overt position and US were produced with adaptations for US-sponsored textbooks, which supplied technology played a key role Islamic countries. Less well known is exhort Afghan children to pluck out in defeating the Soviet war machine the extraordinary effort that went the eyes of their enemies and cut off in Afghanistan. into creating propaganda for Afghan their legs, are still widely available in Perhaps the most decisive single children2. Afghanistan and Pakistan, some in weapon was the shoulder-fired An example is the textbook series their original form3. Years after they ground-to-air missile known as the underwritten by US grants through were first printed, they were Stinger. From 1986 the Afghan the mujahideen-operated “Education approved by the Taliban for use in mujahideen started receiving Blow- Center for Afghanistan” in the madrassas. pipe and Stinger ground-to-air mis- 1980’s. These textbooks sought to Pakistan Plays The Key Role siles from Britain and the United counterbalance Marxism through States. The first shipment went exclu- creating enthusiasm in Islamic mili- In the decade 1979-1989 Pakistan sively to the fundamentalist wing of tancy. A third-grade mathematics became the front-line state in the the resistance; that is, the three textbook, for example, asks the fol- fight against communism. But it is groups favored by the ISI and headed lowing question: important to realize that Pakistan’s by Hekmatyar, Khalis, and Rabbani. One group of mujahidin attack involvement in organizing the Afghan The new weapons made Soviet heli- 50 Russian soldiers. In that attack 20 Islamic resistance dates much before copters and low-flying air-support Russians are killed. How many Rus- the Soviet invasion of 1979. In 1973, missions exceedingly vulnerable and, sians fled? when Daud, a Pushtun, took over the even today, helicopter and aircraft Another example from a fourth- government in Kabul for the second wrecks litter Afghanistan’s landscape. grade mathematics textbook poses time, he renewed encouragement to The decision to send Stingers was the following problem: the Pushtuns of Pakistan to secede popular in Congress and seen as a The speed of a Kalashnikov bullet and join their blood brothers under way to hurt the Soviets. Some offi- is 800 meters per second. If a Russian the Afghan flag. At that point, the cials in the Pentagon, however, were is at a distance of 3200 meters from a government of Pakistan fought back aware of the risks that these sophisti- mujahid, and that mujahid aims at by organizing the Pushtuns into a cated weapons channeled through the the Russian’s head, calculate how guerrilla movement to harass the ISI could land up in other places. many seconds it will take for the bul- Afghan government. For fifteen Indeed, only a few months after the let to strike the Russian in the fore- years, two very different Pakistani first Stingers had been supplied, frag- head. governments, the civilian government ments of these missiles were found in The quotes above are taken from of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and the mili- the wreckage of two Iranian gun- children’s textbooks published under tary regime of Zia-ul-Haq, used the boats. A vigorous world arms market a $50 million grant from the United Afghan resistance first as a way of offered high prices for these missiles, States Agency for International exerting pressure on Kabul, then as a and it is likely that many were sold Development that ran from Septem- means to strengthen the often waver- off. The number of missiles supplied ber 1986 through June 1994 and was ing American commitment to Pak- by the CIA is said to exceed 1500 administered by the University of istan. The more the United States and their recovery is still under way1. Nebraska at Omaha. According to involved itself in the Afghan cause, The third component of the Rea- Craig Davis, the UNO program staff the more Pakistan would emerge as gan doctrine, emphasizing ideological chose to ignore the images of Islamic the indispensable staging area for the support to the Afghan resistance, was militancy in the children’s textbooks fight against Communism, and the implemented through extensive pro- for the first five years of the program more secure the flow of American aid paganda in the global mass media. because “the University of Nebraska to Pakistan would be. US television channels lavished praise did not wish to be seen imposing Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelli-

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gence (ISI) Directorate, with head- that offered no respite and offered to Some Luminaries Of The quarters in Islamabad, was charged withdraw without a political settle- Afghan Jihad with distributing the weapons. This ment. The switch in the Soviet posi- Months after the Soviet invasion, the was part of the bargain—in fact the tion provoked an immediate switch US had been pressing hard upon part that the US profoundly regrets in the position of Pakistan that hith- Arab governments to get more today—which was the most crucial in erto had only demanded a Soviet involved in the Afghan situation. determining the character and com- withdrawal. Like the “bleeders” in President Anwar Sadat readily com- position of the Afghan resistance. Washington, Pakistani military and plied, sending the growing Islamic Throughout the Soviet occupation, intelligence officials were in no mood resistance weaponry and military the ISI gave only token aid to the to let go of a windfall that had advisers. This act emboldened Pushtun tribes identified with Zahir brought them immense power, privi- Islamists in Egypt who, together with Shah even though they were the most lege, and money. It therefore became leftists, had hitherto been suppressed important tribes. Zahir Shah himself crucial for them to seek means for by the government. These Egyptian was not allowed to come to Pakistan avoiding a settlement. Indeed, Zia-ul- Islamists were to form the core of a to organize Pushtun resistance forces Haq considered any kind of deal as a cohesive Arab movement based in under his banner, which he attempted betrayal of Pakistan. He spoke bit- Afghanistan. The CIA actively sought to do on several occasions. Pakistan terly to newspaper editors in Islam- volunteers from Muslim countries decided which groups in the Afghan abad. “America and Russia have across the globe to fight the Soviets, resistance got the $3 billion that the reached an understanding” he said. emphasizing Islamic solidarity United States and its friends poured “By brokering in coal, we have together with pledges of full financial in. Most of that $3 billion went to blackened our face.” In the absence support. Pre-occupied with a need to Islamic fundamentalist groups that of a coalition government including bleed the Soviets as much as possible, represented a tiny minority of the Mujahideen, refugees, and the American officials rarely paused to Afghans but were favored by the ISI. ruling PDPA, he said, “Soviet with- think of the doubtful qualities of the Pakistan was looking for trusted col- drawal would only lead the country individuals they had chosen to sup- laborators who would help them to into chaos, bloodshed, anarchy, and port. Had they chosen to listen to establish a Pakistan-oriented client civil war.” In such a situation, he what the seven resistance groups in state in Kabul after the war in order claimed that millions of refugees in Peshawar were openly saying during to realize Zia’s dream of “strategic Pakistan would resist being returned the course of the Afghan Jihad, their 4 realignment” They wanted to make to their homes. But, in fact, these enthusiasm could have been consider- sure that no U.S. guns or money went were tactical ploys—Zia had a grand ably dampened. to Pushtuns who might try to get design that envisioned a different Osama bin Laden was among the 5 back the lost Pushtun tribal areas concept for Pakistan and refused to first Arabs to go to Afghanistan after that now make up the Northwest be distracted. the Soviet invasion. It was a turning Frontier province of Pakistan. All In 1987, the Afghan government point in his life. Speaking to an Arab training camps were under direct of Najibullah extended the olive journalist, he said “I was enraged and control and operated by the ISI. branch to Pakistan, declaring a uni- went there at once” and added that Years after the Afghan war was won lateral ceasefire and offering a gov- “one day in Afghanistan was like and the Soviets defeated, these camps ernment of national unity. This was praying one thousand days in a would be used for training jihadists rejected. Certainly, this rejection was mosque”. He was appalled at the to fight in Kashmir, Chechnya, a blow to Mikhail Gorbachev who chaos, disunity, and lack of clear Bosnia, Philippines, Russia, and the was now intent on withdrawing from objectives. Although there does not United States. the Afghan quagmire. Nevertheless, appear to be truth to a frequently By 1985 the Soviets were in bad Gorbachev was undeterred and the made allegation that bin Laden was trouble militarily. They realized that Russians withdrew unconditionally. recruited by the CIA, he did undoubt- they had blundered into a situation edly benefit from CIA assistance in

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 97 53rd Pugwash Conference establishing a recruitment drive that, Afghanistan was established, and if Hizb-e-Islami. In an interview Khalis over the next several years, would Pakistan closed its doors then he told Eqbal Ahmad that he went to bring thousands of Arab fighters into would continue the fight from Iran. Pakistan in 1973 to organize resis- Afghanistan. He met the expenses After being elected chairman of the tance forces to fight Daud, whom he from his own funds—derived from a alliance of resistance groups in considered a dangerous modernist, vast construction empire in Saudi Peshawar, he declared plans to liber- even a Communist. Arabia—and set up training camps. ate the Muslim republics of the Soviet Ismail Khan, the warlord gover- The Ma’sadat Al-Ansar became the Union. After the Russians left, Pak- nor of Herat, and a high-ranking main base for training Afghan istan picked Hekmatyar to be its man member of the Jamiat-I-Islami, is mujahideen. His close links with the in Kabul, but he had little popular accused of butchering and torturing ISI greatly weakened after the deba- support because his forces had thousands. His claim to fame is that, cle in the battle for Jalalabad in lobbed rockets and artillery shells at during the Soviet occupation he March 1989, just shortly after the the beleaguered city for months. He refused to fire on to a crowd and, Soviet withdrawal.6 was dropped when the Taliban instead, turned his guns on to the Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri and appeared on the scene. When the Tal- Soviets killing over 350 men and Ahmad Shawqi al-Islambuli were iban were destroyed by the American their family members. He is currently among the first Egyptians to arrive in offensive he tried hard to fight his with Hamid Karzai’s government and Afghanistan. Zawahiri was an Egypt- way back into the political scene but considered a pillar of support by the ian pediatrician who became he seems to have lost out and is cur- US. He also maintains close relations Osama’s second-in-command and a rently either in Iran or Peshawar. with Iran. dedicated commander. Islambuli too Burhannudin Rabbani, a gradu- Today the mujahideen leaders are was a hard-core fundamentalist and ate of Al-Azhar University in Cairo condemned universally as murderers brother of Khalid al-Islambuli, who was another favorite of the ISI and thugs but it shall remain a histor- later assassinated Sadat. Both men because of his close integration into ical fact that these very men had been eventually became top-leaders of the the infrastructure of Islamic move- celebrated as heroes in the US media. Al-Qaida network. ments such as the Ikhwan-ul-Mus- TV cameras have recorded for pos- Gulbadin Hekmatyar was a limeen and Muslim Brotherhood. He terity the day when Ronald Reagan young engineering student at Kabul was particularly influenced by the feted them on the lawn of White University in 1973 when he was con- writings of Hasan-al-Bana and House, lavishing praise on “brave tacted by a Pakistani official, Sayyid Qutb who called for violent freedom fighters challenging the Evil Naseerullah Babar, who later became overthrow of governments in Muslim Empire” and claiming that there were Minister of the Interior under Benazir countries to establish a true Islamic “the moral equivalent of the Found- Bhutto and is credited with creating state. Rabbani considered both the ing Fathers [of America]”. the Taliban as a political force. Hek- US and the Soviet Union as sworn matyar came from an Afghan rural- enemies of Islam and opposed to Fathering Global Militant Islamic Revivalism tribal background. Contact with Iranian and Afghan revolutions. modernity at Kabul University Thousands of Kabul residents were Why did the Afghan jihad succeed changed him—as happens not infre- killed in the fighting between pro- when so many other initiatives to quently when East meets West—into Rabbani and pro-Hekmatyar forces promote Muslim unity (e.g. revival of a hard-line Islamist. This made him a after the Soviet withdrawal and the the Caliphate in the early 20th cen- Pakistani favorite and a major recipi- overthrow of Najibullah. tury) failed? In large part, this was ent of C.I.A. aid although he was also Younis Khalis, a theologian of the because of a gradual but fundamental well known for his outspoken con- stern Wahabi tradition and a gradu- change in Muslim attitudes towards tempt for the United States. He ate from a Deobandi madrassa was the world around them. Islamic fun- declared that he would not stop fight- ideologically close to Rabbani but damentalism simply did not exist ing until a fundamentalist order in subsequently split and formed the until approximately 30 years ago as a

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political force. Today many impor- been laid in the late 1950s by have dreamed of such spectacular tant Muslim leaders are fundamental- Maulana Abul Ala Maudoodi of Pak- success. The global jihad industry ists but, looking back at the last cen- istan, Saiyyid Qutb of Egypt, and had finally come into its own. tury, there was not even one! later by Ayatollah Khomenei of Iran. At least until 11 September, US Turkey’s Kemal Ataturk, Algeria’s Theirs was a call to arms, to stop the policy makers were unrepentant, Ahmed Ben Bella, Indonesia’s decay of Muslim civilization and val- even proud of their winning strategy. Sukarno, Pakistan’s Muhammad Ali ues, and to return to the Golden Age A few years ago, Carter’s U.S. Jinnah, Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser, of early Islam. But their message was national security adviser Zbigniew and Iran’s Mohammed Mosaddeq all largely ignored until the turn of Brzezinski, one of the key players and sought to organize their societies on events suddenly made them relevant. “bleeders” of the time gave an inter- the basis of secular values. The Iranian revolution was the view to the Paris weekly Nouvel It took barely a generation or two first milestone in forging a strong Observateur. He was asked whether for the nationalist period to be can- Islamic militancy. Its impact would in retrospect, given that “Islamic fun- celled out by rising religious fervor. have been still greater but for Iran’s damentalism represents a world men- The reasons are complex7 but one Shia character. Soon thereafter Gen- ace today”, US policy might have truth stands out—the imperial inter- eral Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq seized been a mistake. Brzezinski promptly ests of Britain, and later the United power and ruled Pakistan for eleven retorted: States, feared independent national- years during which he strove to What is most important to the ism. Anyone willing to collaborate Islamize both state and society. In history of the world? The Taliban or was preferred, including the ultracon- Sudan an Islamic state arose under the collapse of the Soviet empire? servative Islamic regime of Saudi Jaafar al-Nimeiry wherein amputa- Some stirred-up Moslems or the lib- Arabia. In time, as the Cold War tion of hands and limbs was eration of Central Europe and the pressed in, independent nationalism sanctioned. Then, in 1982 the PLO end of the Cold War? became still more intolerable. In was decisively routed by the Israelis What Brzezinski had not quite 1953, Mosaddeq of Iran was over- and forced out of Beirut. This largely calculated was that his “stirred up thrown in a CIA coup and replaced secular organization was Moslems” wanted to change the by Reza Shah Pahlavi who faithfully subsequently eclipsed by Hamas, a world. And in this they were to suc- served US economic and political fundamentalist Muslim movement. ceed beyond all doubt. interests. Again, for economic Every secular government in Muslim motives, Britain targeted Nasser countries was increasingly challenged Acknowledgment while Indonesia’s nationalist presi- from within by Islamic forces. My perception of events in dent Sukarno was replaced by Although Muslim frustration kept Afghanistan was entirely shaped by Suharto after a bloody CIA-led coup growing, the anger was undirected Eqbal Ahmad, my mentor and friend. that left hundreds of thousands dead. and unable to generate a coherent This essay is unoriginal—it owes Secular, nationalist governments path of action. The real heavily to his published and unpub- all over the Muslim world started breakthrough came when the Afghan lished works, and even more to his collapsing. Pressed from outside, cor- jihad pitted Sunnis against commu- lectures, thoughts, and the close rupt and incompetent from within, nist infidels and gained full support interactions we had over decades. His they proved unable to defend from the world’s most powerful extraordinary depth of political national interests or deliver social nation, the United States. Its superb analysis and understanding of world justice. They began to frustrate organizational skills, massive human events was unparalleled among schol- democracy and dictatorships flour- and technical resources, and single- ars of the subcontinent. His death on ished. These failures left a vacuum minded dedication to anti-commu- 11 May 1999 left a deep, permanent that Islamic religious movements nism enabled it to create potent and void in the lives of many. eventually grew to fill. The theoreti- unified Islamic entities. No 20th cen- cal basis for such movements had tury Muslim ideologue could even

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Bibliography Afghanistan and Pakistan in 1999- Islamic confederation. We won’t have 2000. The examples quoted in the pre- passports between Pakistan and “Bloody Games”, Eqbal Ahmad and sent essay are from his work. Afghanistan. It will be part of a pan- Richard J. Barnet, The New Yorker, 11 3 As recently as the time of this confer- Islamic revival that will one day win April 1988. ence (Nov 2002) books with a similar over the Muslims in the Soviet Union, “Confronting Empire”, Eqbal Ahmad, content continue to be used in some you will see.” interviews with David Barsamian, South schools in Islamabad. 6 Osama was extremely angry and con- End Press 2000. 4 This notion of achieving “strategic vinced that the ISI had drawn the mujahideen into needless slaughter by “The Tragedy of Afghanistan”, Raja depth” has long been espoused by key deliberately misinforming them about Anwar, translated by Khalid Hasan, Pakistani generals including, Akhtar the strength of Afghan government Verso (Bristol), 1988. Abdur Rahman (killed along with Zia), Hamid Gul, and Mirza Aslam Beg. troops. But, General Asad Durrani, a “The Unholy Nexus: Pak-Afghan Rela- This, in fact, was the raison d’etre for former Director General of the ISI, tions Under The Taliban”, Imtiaz Gul, Pakistan’s unstinting support for the emphatically denied this during our Vanguard Books, Lahore, 2002. Taliban until 9/11. recent conversation on this subject and, instead, put the blame on the lack of “Sectarianism And Ethnic Violence In 5 In an interview with an American jour- organizational discipline of the Afghanistan”, Musa Khan Jalalzai, Van- nalist Zia said, “All right, you Ameri- mujahideen. guard Books, Lahore, 1996. cans wanted us to be a front-line state. 7 For one analysis of the Muslim world’s “Afghanistan: A New History”, Martin By helping you we have earned the right predicament with science and modern Ewans, Vanguard Books, Lahore, 2001. to have a regime in Afghanistan to our liking. We took risks as a front-line thought, see “Islam and Science—Reli- “Islam And Resistance In Afghanistan”, state, and we won’t permit it to be like gious Orthodoxy and the Battle for Olivier Roy, Cambridge University Press, it was before, with Indian and Russian Rationality”, Pervez Hoodbhoy, Zed 1985. influence there and claims on our terri- Books, London, 1991. “Soviet-Afghan Relations”, Shamsuddin, tory. It will be a real Islamic state, a real Geeta Press, Delhi 1985. “Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War On America”, Yossef Bodansky, Prima A Look at the Nature and Utility Publishing, California, 1999. of Space Weapons: Not Yet “Jihad—The Trail of Political Islam”, Richard L. Garwin, Council on Foreign Relations † Gilles Kepel, translated by Anthony F.Roberts, Harvard University Press, 2002. In this paper I attempt to sketch the Division, and more than 50 years of utility of space weaponry, primarily involvement with the US Notes from the point of view of the United Government’s national security pro- 1 During and after the US offensive States. grams, beginning with the develop- against Al-Qaida forces in Afghanistan, In this I draw upon the excellent ment and testing of nuclear weapons, US agents sought to buy back these 1 shoulder-fired missiles. Even though RAND book , “Space Weapons, and extending to missiles and space. their internal batteries have overrun Earth Wars.” That study was com- The US Space Commission their shelf-life, they continue to consti- missioned by LGen Roger DeKok, Report2 cited several needs for space- tute a danger to US aircraft. The local DCS Plans and Programs, HQ USAF. weapon capability: arms industry in Darra is said to have found a way to revitalize the Stingers. I am guided also by the views 1. Defensive Counter-space: To According to Pakistani newspaper expressed in presentations and discus- reduce US military space vulnera- reports, several Stingers have recently sions of which I am aware over the bility. been bought back and the going rate is past year. But these are my own judg- said to be around $50,000 a piece. 2. Offensive Counter-space: To deny ments, which will be refined by the 2 the use of space and space assets to See, for example, Craig Davis in World interactions at this Pugwash session. Policy Journal, Spring 2000. The adversaries author, who was a doctoral candidate I come to this study from a back- at Indiana University, conducted field- ground of 40 years as scientist and 3. Rapid and global power projection work in Afghan education in manager with the IBM Research to earth.

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To address these needs, the needs identified above. space mine equipped with maneuver RAND Report assesses distinct Satellite vulnerability is and prob- capability exceeding that of the classes of weapons: ably will continue to arise in consid- quarry satellite would sit always 1. Directed-energy weapons such as erable part from jamming or other within lethal range (even a few tens space-based lasers. electronic countermeasures, sensor of meters) ready to explode at a blinding from high-powered lasers on moment’s notice. 2. Kinetic-energy weapons against earth, and pellet payloads on short- A microsatellite as inspection missile targets. range pop-up missiles. Perhaps the device might have been useful in con- 3. Kinetic-energy weapons against most proliferated vulnerability is the junction with Columbia’s final flight, surface targets. threat of Denial and Deception, cam- but a long-endurance microsatellite is 4. Conventional warheads delivered ouflage that undermines the effective- a more difficult task. Nevertheless, a by space-based, or space-traversing, ness of our reconnaissance satellites, cautionary tale is this account of a vehicles. or operations scheduled under cloud January 29, 2003, US microsatellite In addition, any assessment must or when satellites are not in position exercise; the XSS-10 repeatedly consider the potential for non-space to observe. Here is a tabulation of maneuvered to within 115 ft of its weapons to perform any of these threats, with the most likely ones final-stage rocket, taking pictures. A tasks. This introduces the competing listed first: shotgun shell could have destroyed a capabilities of: 1) denial & deception satellite from such a range. 1. Surface-based anti-satellite (ASAT) 2) electronic warfare China carried out similar maneu- weapons such as high-power lasers, 3) attack on ground stations vers with Surrey technology several or missiles with pellet warheads, or 4) sensor blinding years ago. hit-to-kill vehicles. 5) microsatellites Since in the vacuum of space (as 6) direct-ascent interceptors was known to Galileo) a feather and 2. Rapid-response delivery of conven- 7) nuclear detonation in space lead shot fall at the same speed with- tional munitions by forward- But space weapons do not help to out significant drag, a microsatellite deployed cruise or ballistic missiles, reduce vulnerability for most of these with little payload necessary to or non-nuclear payloads on ICBMs. threats,. They are limited to devote to other tasks can be equipped And one must also consider coun- intercepting objects that approach to outmaneuver and outlast a major termeasures to space weapons and to satellites in a noticeably offensive satellite, the primary job of which is these competing systems. A final ele- way, such as hit-to-kill kinetic energy surveillance, high-bandwidth com- ment of assessment is the vulnerabil- weapons; and that capability remains munication, and the like. ity of both space weapons and of to be assessed. It is difficult to counter space competing systems. One of the most effective threats mines once they are in place. It might In this preliminary assessment, I is a microsatellite in the form of a be done with defensive microsatel- take into account the experience of “space mine.” Surrey Satellite Tech- lites, but the asymmetric nature of my civilian and military colleagues nology Ltd., a Surrey University com- the threat (i.e., tiny expenditures for and their judgments of existing and pany, is a leader in developing the microsatellite vs. $200 million- future threats to US military space, as microsatellite technology, and has plus for a major US LEO satellite, well as their views of the potential numerous collaborative programs makes it desirable to prevent the utility of various space and non-space with other countries and with non- emergence of such threats. weapons. state groups. Although microsatel- Two general tools for resolving Defensive counter-space lites have peaceful and military non- the microsatellite dilemma are rules of weapon uses—observation, conduct in peacetime, and deterrence We turn to the first application in our communication, and the like—they by holding non-space assets at risk. list, defensive counter-space. Here we make particularly good antisatellite In summary, space weapons are discover that space weapons have weapons. In this role, a microsatellite generally not good at protecting little capability for meeting the felt

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 101 53rd Pugwash Conference satellites. In the case of microsatel- the energy density of high explosive. ninth the destructive energy per gram lites, one might plagiarize Jonathan A rod would need to be guided as a conventional bomb. The effort is Swift and commit to deploy “smaller accurately to strike its target within entirely mismatched to the results. still to bite ‘em.” This is an arms race some meters in order to destroy a Dominating the cost is the need to in which United States resources far surface target by the explosion. put the rod into orbit in the first outweigh those of any other state, Long rods might be used to pene- place and later cancel its orbital but this advantage is outweighed by trate through earth to hard or deeply velocity so that it drops back to the vulnerability inherent in the cost buried targets. However, the physics earth. The propellant required to of existing and future high-capability of high-velocity impact limits pene- place the entire weapon in orbit must satellites in low Earth orbit. tration depth as shown by high-speed suffice to lift both the rod and its photography of a bullet impacting attendant deorbiting propellant. For Power projection and offensive steel at just above 1 kilometer per low earth orbit, the total velocity counter-space second. A copper-jacketed lead bullet change of about 15 km/s typically We turn now to the remaining two fragments against the hardened steel, requires several thousand times the uses for space weapons, power pro- but in the process produces a pres- orbiting mass in propellant. Taking jection and offensive counter-space. sure sufficient to leave a small crater. the typical $10,000 per kg launch Different space weapons have vary- Very strong projectiles impacting cost to LEO, and assuming a 0.1 ton ing degrees of utility in these areas, so earth or rock at similar speed can rod with the 3 tons of propellant to we will now look at the utility of spe- penetrate to depths several times stop its orbital motion, the launch cific weapons. their length. cost to orbit would be some $30 mil- We have already seen how useful Tests done by Sandia laboratory lion. And for timely delivery against a space mines may be AGAINST those confirm predictions that, even for the single target at temperate latitude, who have valuable satellites and use- hardest rod materials, penetration is several rods in each orbit would be less against those who have none. maximum around 1 km/s. Above that required and a good many orbits— Another weapon much discussed speed, the rod tip simply liquefies, say 10. Clearly, the more conven- is long-rod penetrators. The idea is and penetration depth falls off, tional deorbit maneuver would be that these long tungsten or uranium becoming effectively independent of preferable, with a small energy rods would be orbited, and (accord- impact speed. Therefore, for maxi- change and the use of atmospheric ing to the RAND Report) de-orbited mum penetration, such rods would drag (combined with wings or a lift- by canceling their orbital velocity, so need to be orbited at very low alti- ing-body approach) to preserve much that they would fall essentially verti- tudes, and could only deliver one of the orbital velocity as the rod cally through the atmosphere, strik- ing their target with enormous energy. Two problems that will not be alleviated by the progress of tech- nology: the energy is larger the higher the orbit, but the fall time is greater as well. The energy of high explosive corresponds to a material speed of 3 km/s, and one does not arrive at a similar energy per gram from a pro- jectile dropped from altitude until one reaches 460 km, with a corresponding fall time of 12 min- utes; a fall from GEO takes almost 6 hours and provides about ten times John Rhinelander, Bob Lawson and Steven Miller.

102 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference approaches the vertical. ities very similar to those required for ICBM program: North Korea would Whatever the effect actually surface-based interceptors, if they are need to deploy from the beginning achieved against a target, it is far bet- not to pass harmlessly by the quarry countermeasures to mid-course and ter to propel the rod directly from missiles. For missile launches from a would have to consider countermea- launch to target and avoid orbits small area, space-based interceptors sures to an ABL BPI defense. Unlike altogether— by placing the rods on have their required number the mid-course interceptors which, ballistic missiles. Specifically, a one- multiplied by the number of simulta- once deployed, would always be km/s penetrator could be provided neous launches, and also by the ready for use, the ABL would incur flexibly by a nominal solid rocket “absentee ratio” because most of the large operating costs to maintain a motor giving an acceleration 30 times SBI will be on the other side of the constant presence. that of gravity—so 300 m/sec2. The Earth and unable to join the fray for Another weapon of considerable desired 1 km/s would be obtained in a clustered launch. interest is the Space Based Laser. 3.3 s, over a distance of 1.65 km. A However capable the surface- These weapons could attack over speed of 3 km/s would take 10 s and based interceptors would be against long distances at the speed of light, a distance of 15 km. The cost would North Korea, Iraq, or even against although space mines and the ABL be some $100,000 or less, plus what- launches from Iran, unless based could be equally prompt. A SBL ever cost for the terminal guidance within the target country they are could also attack terrestrial targets, system—which is surely no greater ineffective against ICBMs launched but only with suitable laser for the ballistic missile than for the from China or Russia, because the wavelengths to penetrate the atmos- orbiting projectile. interior of those countries is so far phere. The current candidate SBL Looking now at the common aero from the borders. lasers cannot attack ground or air- vehicle (CAV) carrying conventional Yet China and Russia are highly borne targets. ordnance or intelligence payloads, capable powers, and it would be A single SBL, costing billions of one finds again that this capability is much easier for them to destroy dollars, could typically have a range dominated by CAV delivery by ballis- space-based interceptors as the con- of at most 3000 km, unless the SBL tic or cruise missiles— perhaps stellation is gradually built than it constellation were conceived to have guided by observation from space. would be for the US to use the SBIs to a large number of redirecting (“fight- Indeed, the role of the CAV itself is counter ballistic missile launch. Some ing”) mirrors3. Under those circum- largely supplanted by the familiar observers are skeptical that Russia or stances, a competitive system could “bus” technology for delivering mul- China (or France, for that matter) use a ground-based laser, redirected tiple payloads from a ballistic missile would destroy SBIs in peacetime, but by such mirrors3. Cloud at the GBL launch. when the question is posed what the site would cancel the capability of a US would do if another state GBL, so several would be needed to Space weapons and missile defense deployed a vast number of SBIs, the have high probability that the system We turn now to space weapons (and response of many of my colleagues is would be operable at any time. In their competition) for missile defense. that we would destroy them—“shoot any case, the fighting mirrors might For boost-phase intercept—BPI— them down”. be classed by the potential victims as space-based kinetic-energy (hit-to- The airborne laser (ABL) under weapons in space as well. kill) interceptors are in competition development and in early flight test An SBL would be a very expensive with surface-based interceptors (on (in contrast to the space based laser means of attacking a satellite, but land or sea, or even on aircraft). The (SBL) for which no US program cur- might be more useful for missile non-space options excel against a rently exists) might serve as a BPI defense purposes. With relatively few small state such as North Korea, capability against ICBMs launched SBL in orbit, one might need to be largely surrounded by water. For BPI, from North Korea. In the spirit of a used at 3000 km range. At that dis- space-based interceptors must be “capabilities based” system, it would tance, with no loss through the given acceleration and divert capabil- to some extent complicate NK’s atmosphere, a perfect mirror of 3 m

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diameter, and laser power output of 3 of $100 million per target and is con- needed reduction in vulnerability of MW in the 3.8-micron DF band, a tingent on the target being thin- US satellites. In fact the commission target protected with 3 cm of cork skinned and not obscured by a cloud. does not specifically advocate the could withstand about 200 MJm-2 For comparison, a Tomahawk missile development of offensive weaponry before exposing the target surface to costs some $600,000 and will attack for deployment in space. In particu- laser heat. (Some Minuteman ICBMs heavily armored and non-flammable lar, it reads, have had a 0.6-centimeter layer of targets, and is not affected by cloud. “The government…should: cork to protect the booster from skin Even enthusiasts consider SBLs a • Invest in technologies to permit the friction heating during launch. Such a weapon to attack very special targets, US Government to field systems layer would be vaporized with about while most military capability against one generation ahead of what is 50 MJm-2 (5 kJcm-2) from a SBL.) similar targets is to be provided by available commercially to meet The laser consumes fuel at a rate of more conventional means. In contrast unique national security require- some 3kg/MWs, or 9 kg/s, and it almost all portions of the earth are ments. would need to fire for 1700 s at the reachable by existing cruise missiles • Encourage the US commercial assumed 3000-km range, thus using (Tomahawk Block 3) launched from space industry to field systems one 15 tons of fuel, at a launch cost for outside the 12 nmi limit. The flight generation ahead of international fuel of $150 million per target time can be several hours. competitors.” attacked. At a range of 1000 km, the For the space-based laser, “rapid Also, launch cost would be some $16 M response” is a sometime thing, since “Fourth, we know from history per target. it is necessary to have clear air to that every medium—air, land and Other countermeasures are feasi- allow the laser beam to strike the tar- sea—has seen conflict. Reality indi- ble and could be multiplicative—such get—no cloud in the way. cates that space will be no different. as the slow rotation of the booster With these competitive means of Given this virtual certainty, the US during launch. striking the target, observation could must develop the means both to deter A substantial constellation of still be provided by non-weapon space and to defend against hostile acts in SBLs covering the strategically assets, so that in addition to attack by and from space.” important region of the Earth could navigation (using GPS) one could use And consist of 20-50 such satellites, which a laser-target designator from space “The US must participate actively could provide rapid illumination of with observation and designation pro- in shaping the space legal and regula- most important points, providing vided at the time when a destructive tory environment.” that the target can be destroyed by payload arrives in the vicinity of the the laser, and that it is not covered by target—an example of non-weapon Conclusions cloud. Cloud coverage is typically 30- military space capabilities contribut- My own analysis indicates that US 40%, but can range to 70% or more ing to US military capability. deployment of space weapons will in parts of Germany or North Korea. In summary, the one target which encourage and demand the develop- But, as analyzed in detail in the can surely be held at risk at modest ment and deployment of space RAND publication, many targets are cost is important and costly satellites, weapons by others. Others can and not vulnerable to destruction by SBL, of which the US possesses by far the will respond to space weapons in and many that are can be protected greatest number and value. asymmetric ways—including the by smoke, by water shields, or in The US Space Commission deployment of space mines in their other ways. Aircraft yes, and com- Report is generally considered as sup- vicinity and the use of short range bustible targets or thin-skinned stor- port for the proposition that the US missiles to lift ton-class pellet age tanks. But not bunkers, armored should proceed to develop and payloads against LEO weapons. Fur- vehicles, or many buildings. deploy space weapons in order to thermore, such responses would We have already seen that the use counter the evolution of space inevitably threaten and legitimize of an SBL can easily cost in the range weapons by others, and to effect the counters to US non-weapon LEO

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satellites essential to our entire mili- – Advanced conventional weapons Asserting a “might makes right” tary capability. on ICBMs (CAV?) with observa- rule in space and elsewhere leads, It is therefore essential to judge tion or designation from space, again, to the asymmetric use of force, the utility and necessity of space ground, or UAV and this might be the destruction of weapons. Of course, any proposed • Non-space weapons will provide valuable satellites in peacetime rather augmentation of US military capabil- more capability and sooner than than holding them at risk for future ity must compete with other means space weapons destruction. for accomplishing the task. Capabili- • Destructive ASAT and space-ASAT Nothing is forever—perhaps not ties unique to space weapons use weapons are a serious threat to even the regime we favor—so an resources, which must be taken into overall US military capability and its aggressive campaign to prevent the account. dependence on space. deployment of weapons by others Net judgments on space weapons Countering satellite vulnerability: A might best be implemented as a US utility: general approach to reducing satellite commitment: vulnerability is to reduce our depen- • For offensive counterspace—deny not to be the first to test or deploy dence on satellites while maintaining military space to others space weapons or to further test the benefits of satellites at reasonable – Jam uplinks or downlinks (from destructive anti-satellite weapons. cost. This can be achieved by supple- ground or space) menting satellite capabilities in This should be supported by a US – Attack ground stations essential wartime by theater resources: initiative to codify such a rule—first to satellite capability • High-power pseudolites (on the by parallel unilateral declarations – Obscure line of sight by screens in ground and on UAVs) in the theater and then by a treaty. Such a space of operations so that the adversary campaign would legitimize the use of • For defensive counterspace—pre- would obtain no benefit in theater force against actions which would serve US military space capability conflict by destroying GPS satellites. imperil satellites of any state. • UAV and rocket capabilities for – Attack ground systems which Notes might be disabling satellites imagery. At altitudes of 20-30 km, a 20-cm aperture would have the † [email protected]. Work done with Bruce – Interdict ASAT in powered flight same resolution as a 2-m diameter M. DeBlois, Jeremy C. Marwell, and – Deter by promise of retaliation— mirror at a range of 300 km. Such Scott H. Kemp, of the Council on For- eign Relations. This paper was not against satellites but against platforms can provide near- military and political assets presented at the Pugwash workshop, constant presence, as well. Preserving the Non-weaponisation of • For destructive antisatellite (ASAT) Space, 22-24 May 2003, Castellón de la A primary means of reducing vul- – The most prompt means is proba- Plana, Spain, and distributed as a back- nerability is to reduce the threat—by rd bly microsatellite as space mine, ground document at the 53 Pugwash agreements not to damage or destroy Conference, 17-21 July 2003, Halifax, orbiting Earth within 10-100m of non-weapon satellites. This should be Canada. its quarry backed up by US developments to 1 “Space Weapons, Earth Wars,” by – Short-range missiles lobbing ton intercept or counter such weapons or Robert Preston, et al, RAND MR1209, payloads of coarse sand to orbital ASAT used in violation of such an June 2002. altitude at the right time 2 agreement. Rumsfeld, D.H. et al. “Report of the Commission to Assess United States – Homing kill vehicles as direct- We have found general accep- ascent ASAT National Security Space Management tance of this (conditional) conclusion: and Organization,” January 11, 2001. The United States can do it best, but If space weapons and destructive 3 Bethe, H.A., and Garwin, R.L., “Space- others will soon do it well enough. ASAT could be avoided by the United based Ballistic-Missile Defense,” Scien- • Global and prompt force projection tific American, Volume 252, No. 4, States giving up such capability, it October 1984. (Figure on p. 44). – Kinetic-energy (KE) weapons on would be in our national security ICBMs or shorter-range missiles interest to do so.

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From Beijing to Kyoto: Gendering the According to the UN’s Beijing Declaration and the Platform for international climate change negotiation process Action, there is a stated need to Christie E. Dennison, University of Bradford, UK mainstream a gender perspective throughout all UN activity areas The issue of climate change has sur- national climate change process will (UN 1996). Furthermore, the UN has faced relatively recently on the scale be unable to achieve truly global acknowledged that women’s right to of environmental concerns, yet inter- legitimacy or relevance until it adopts participate in decision-making consti- national responses to it have been the principles of gender equity at all tutes their basic human right as well notably swift and tightly targeted. In stages of the process, from scientific as their right and responsibility as just over a decade and a half, climate research, through analysis, agenda citizens (Gierycz in Skjelsbaek & change has garnered international formation, negotiation and decision- Smith 2001, 18-19). In July 1997, attention and the international making, regime implementation, and the Economic and Social Council response to this global problem has finally in further development and (ECOSOC) defined the mainstream- shifted from contentious debate on evaluation. ing of a gender perspective as: its presumed-dubious scientific The process of assessing the implica- groundings, to virtually global accep- Setting the boundaries through tions for women and men of any tance of the reality of the problem definition planned action, including legislation, and the severity of its predicted In order to effectively engage in this policies or programmes, in all areas effects. This progress has been quite debate, it will be useful to clarify a and at all levels and as a strategy for remarkable given the breadth and few concepts at the outset. First of making women’s as well as men’s complexity of the problem, in social, all, ‘gender’ is a concept, distinct concerns and experiences an integral economic, political, and scientific from ‘sex’, that “refers to the way in dimension of the design, implementa- terms. However, while the which, in any particular society, indi- tion, monitoring and evaluation of expediency of the international cli- viduals are socially constructed to policies and programmes in all politi- mate change negotiation process behave and experience themselves as cal, economic and societal spheres so deserves guarded praise, the exclusive ‘female’ or ‘male’” (Jacobson 2002). that women and men benefit equally nature of the process, from a gender This is changeable over time and and inequality is not perpetuated. perspective, raises considerable cause there are wide variations of gender (Gierycz in Skjelsbaek & Smith 2001, for concern. experiences within and between cul- 19) Despite the overt United Nations tures, which depend on factors such These principles collectively chal- commitment requiring all UN as age, class, and ethnicity (Mertus lenge the assumption of gender-neu- processes to abide by the principles 2000, 18). Furthermore, “gender trality, rendering this assumption ille- for mainstreaming a gender perspec- always carries with it some form of gitimate and ignorant not only of tive, the international climate change relational content”, which accepted UN policy but also blatantly negotiation process has remained in contributes to a person’s gendered ignorant of concern for gender contravention of these principles by identity (Jacobson 2002). Thus, the equity. assuming gender-neutrality and by use of a gender perspective in the Let us now also open up some of failing to engage in required gender- analysis of any issue “recognizes, the conceptual definitions surround- analysis. I will argue that this failure understands, and utilizes the knowl- ing climate change and allow the has not only resulted in the process edge of gender differences in clarification of what I refer to as the coming up short on gender equity planning, implementing and evaluat- “international climate change negoti- principles, but also that this has had, ing programs and working relation- ation process”. While it is not practi- and will continue to have, injurious ships” (Hanley, quoted in Mertus cal in this context to engage in a effects on the process in terms of effi- 2000, 15). ciency and effectiveness1. The inter- lengthy scientific explanation of the

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processes that cause and result in cli- The UN FCCC remained the Foundations for fair criticism mate change, it is feasible to begin by focal point of the international cli- As I have begun to show, the formal acknowledging that: mate change negotiation process principles guiding international throughout the 1990s and has now …scientists have known for many action on both climate change and survived into the 2000s, with the decades that an increase in the atmos- gender equity are grounded in devel- most current major development in pheric concentration of carbon diox- opment initiatives of the United the process being the agreement in ide (CO2) and other gases which Nations. The UN FCCC is actually 1997, and ongoing ratification, of the absorb infra-red radiation should one of several agreements emerging Kyoto Protocol (Grubb et al 2001, warm the earth’s surface, changing from the UN Conference on Environ- 36-37). climates in various ways. Measure- ment and Development (UNCED), Very briefly, the Kyoto Protocol, ments started in 1957 showed unam- which itself was the product of a long which is the culminating product of biguously that atmospheric concen- preparatory history of meetings and the Kyoto conference, i.e. “the 2 trations of CO2 were rising steadily discussions. Similarly, much of the biggest and most high-profile event due to human activities, primarily formal international work on gender on the international environment fossil fuel burning and deforestation. equity has taken shape in the UN, since the Rio Earth Summit”, sets out (Grubb et al 1993, 61) beginning with the creation of the legally binding (pending ratification) UN Commission on the Status of If it may be agreed that this is commitments by industrialised coun- Women (CSW) in 1947, further tak- more or less the scientific process tries to limit their greenhouse gas ing shape through UNIFEM and the causing climate change, then the emissions (Grubb et al 2001, 61). UN Conferences on Women in human process of international meet- The commitments were made accord- Copenhagen 1980, Nairobi 1985, ings and negotiation to obtain agree- ing to agreed implementation time Beijing 1995, Windhoek 2000, and ment on how to slow or alter this scales in conjunction with “a com- also with Security Council Resolution process, or at least to mitigate its plex package” of “global ‘soft’ com- 1325 (Gierycz in Skjelsbaek & Smith effects, can be referred to as the inter- mitments, related processes on tech- 2001, 15). Underpinning both of national climate change negotiation nology transfer and financial these development initiatives are con- process. mechanisms, policies and measures, cerns for achieving greater global The general objectives of this minimization of adverse impacts, equity and efficiency in development, process were summed up in the UN sinks, and compliance in the interests of women and men, Framework Convention on Climate mechanisms…designed to gain and and the common future they share on Change (UN FCCC). Article 2 sustain global participation” (Grubb Earth. As such, progress in the areas (Objective) states: 2001, xli). In short, Kyoto is the of both gender and environmental The ultimate objective of this Con- world’s comprehensive—albeit issues was intended to crosscut all vention…is to achieve…stabilization imperfect—agreement guiding inter- issue areas of the UN, and to avoid of greenhouse gas concentrations in national policy and practice on the becoming mainstreamed as an after- the atmosphere at a level that would control and mitigation of climate thought to other processes (Gierycz prevent dangerous anthropogenic change. in Skjelsbaek & Smith 2001, 19; interference with the climate system. Given this definitional introduc- Greene 2001, 390). Such a level should be achieved tion to two seemingly distinct “issue Given these parallel beginnings, it within a time frame sufficient to areas”, it will now be useful to draw is increasingly evident that gender, allow ecosystems to adapt naturally some links between gender issues and environmental, and development to climate change, to ensure that food climate change, and to establish the concerns should be considered in production is not threatened and to foundation for a gender-based concert with one another, as comple- enable economic development to pro- critique of the international climate mentarities, and certainly not as com- ceed in a sustainable manner. change negotiation process. peting interests. Moreover, based on (Grubb et al 1993, 63) the common goals of achieving effi-

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ciency and equity, it would appear ence climate change. These change has been conducted. This is that the two issue areas stand to gain differences occur principally in the because it is relatively frequently from being mutually supportive, and areas of responsibility, vulnerability, acknowledged that “the effects of contrastingly, that it would be of adaptability, and mitigation (Skutsch climate change are very likely to be lesser value to consider one to the 2002). gendered…because of the strong rela- exclusion of the other. Ironically, tionship between poverty and vulner- while the formal UN-based women’s Responsibility ability to environmental change, and movement has developed and main- Evidently, both sexes are implicated the stark fact that women as a group tained an interest in the inclusion of in the human responsibility for cli- are poorer and less powerful than environmental issues throughout its mate change based on their participa- men” (Nelson et al 2002, 51). While development3, the UN-based envi- tion in the global economy (Skutsch a statement as broad as this should ronmental movement, and 2002, 32).6 However, women’s and not be accepted without qualification specifically the international climate men’s participation in the global and acknowledgement of the signifi- change negotiation process, has economy, defined in this case as their cant gains women have made to chal- essentially ignored gender issues by use of products and services owing to lenge their assumed vulnerability8, it assuming gender-neutrality4. the emission of greenhouse gases, is is clear that climate change will have Before moving on to a discussion neither the same, nor equivalent, on a the most dramatic and likely detri- of how this exclusion came to be, and global scale (Skutsch 2002, 33). For mental effects on the most vulnerable how the process may be redeemed, example, if we consider car use and segments of society (IPCC 2001), and allow me first to explain briefly why ownership, although the sexual divi- this does, for a variety of reasons9, gender issues should indeed be made sion has become less extreme in the often include women (Nelson et al central to the development of the past few decades in the Western 2002, 52). international climate change negotia- world, “it is evident that cars are still tion process. more used by men than by women, Adaptability and Mitigation with the side-effect that women are Regarding adaptability and mitiga- Making the case for gender often disproportionately dependent tion, women have been shown to be inclusiveness on public transport” (Skutsch 2002, both capable of, and especially adept Climate change is often viewed as a 33). This is only one of thousands of at, adapting to climate change scientific process, making it difficult examples of women’s and men’s dif- (Masika 2002, 6), as well as being to understand and often even more ferential involvement in the global willing to play a key role in develop- difficult to explain to the wider pub- economy contributing to climate ing and implementing mitigation lic (Villagrasa 2002, 41). This is fur- change. The point here is not to strategies (Skutsch 2002, 35). How- ther confounded by the belief that accrue blame on one sex or the other, ever, in both cases, women are much most of the effects of climate change but rather to emphasize the fact that more likely to achieve this if granted will occur only in the future, compli- since women and men have differen- the opportunity and agency necessary cating the generation of immediate tial responsibilities for contributing to become involved in the process public concern (Villagrasa 2002, 41). to climate change, it is thus only logi- (Skutsch 2002, 35). This would, Fortunately, however, the very real, cal to incorporate a gender perspec- however, involve the granting of very human aspects of climate tive when conducting research on space for the voices of women to change, including its anthropogenic human responsibility for climate speak on behalf of women. This issue causes and the severe effects it will change.7 brings us neatly back to the lack of likely have on human life are increas- gender analysis and gender perspec- ingly being acknowledged.5 Conse- Vulnerability tive in the international climate quently, there is also growing aware- It is with regard to vulnerability that change negotiation process. ness of the differential ways in which the majority of women’s research on Based on the evidence presented women and men are slated to experi- gender differences and climate in the preceding paragraphs, it is irre-

108 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference sponsible to deny that climate change Meteorological Organisation the need for the active involvement of is a gendered concept. After all, (WMO) (Grubb et al 2001, 4). The women in decision-making and under the assumption of the gender IPCC provides “authoritative assess- plainly acknowledges the need to neutrality of both the problem and ments to governments of the state of forcibly eliminate gender discrimina- the process, it is not that the above knowledge concerning climate tion (UNCED 1992). Secondly there issues disappear, but rather that they change” and it is these reports that was the Beijing Platform for Action remain suppressed and ignored. It provide the “scientific underpinning emerging from the UN Conference would seem logical, therefore, if our for the diplomatic processes of the on Women in 1995, which goal is to achieve maximal efficiency, UN FCCC” (Grubb et al 2001, 4). propounded in no uncertain terms for our response to climate change to The IPCC has evolved into “what is the continuing efforts to eliminate aptly emerge from a gender analysis probably the most extensive and gender discrimination and further and incorporate a gender perspective carefully constructed intergovern- entrenched efforts to adopt a gender at all stages of the process, from sci- mental advisory process ever known perspective cognisant of women’s entific research, through regime for- in international relations” (Grubb et identity and agency across all UN mation and mitigation-strategy al 2001, 4). Its first assessment report activity (United Nations 1996). implementation. Yet the international jump-started the UN FCCC and its However, notwithstanding these climate change negotiation process second assessment report “marked a intervening and purportedly vital fails to incorporate a gender perspec- crucial stage in the progress of global documents, and despite a strong tive in an integrated and meaningful action to combat climate move by women away from viewing way. I maintain that the consequence change…set[ting] the context for the women as the vulnerable victims of of this neglect is a lack of efficiency negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol” this global phenomenon, neither the and equity in the process, given that a (Grubb et al 2001, 4). And yet, this UN FCCC nor the Kyoto Protocol gender-neutral process and gender- most influential UN-based body has make any mention of gender or neutral mitigation strategies will fail taken an almost exclusively gender- women’s issues relative to global to address the differentiated concerns neutral stance in its research and environmental change (Skutsch 2001, and needs of half of the human popu- reports. Hence, the international cli- 30). Equipped with all the necessary lation. mate change negotiation process, in bases for designing a gender-inclusive I will now turn my attention to an its assumption of gender-neutrality, process of international negotiation examination of the development of started on the course of regime for- on climate change, the agents of this the process, in order to illustrate how mation as a process exclusive of gen- process still failed to do so.10 it evolved to the exclusion of women, der concerns, and continued in that Getting back on track: mechanisms before proceeding to recommenda- vein despite strong statements from to promote gender inclusiveness tions on how the process might be the UN requiring mainstreaming of a reorganised in such a way as to gender-perspective. One foremost consideration to retain include a gender perspective. Still, the process cannot be let off is that a numerical representation of the hook quite so easily. There were women does not necessarily result in How the process proceeded to intervening moments and factors the theoretical representation of femi- exclusion throughout the process that should nist goals, i.e. gender equity. There- As I have noted, the international cli- have reeled it back into the realm of fore, while the number of women mate change negotiation process has gender equality. The first of these was participating in climate change nego- its roots in UN initiatives, not the Agenda 21, the ‘comprehensive’ tiations should increase at all levels— least of which was the formation of international programme of action in government, business, and NGO the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- for achieving sustainable communities—and throughout the mate Change (IPCC) in 1988, under development in the 21st Century process of regime formation, this will the auspices of the UN Environment (Grubb et al 1993, 97). Section III, not necessarily guarantee an accept- Program (UNEP) and the World Chapter 24 of Agenda 21 emphasises able representation of women’s inter-

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 109 53rd Pugwash Conference ests (Villagrasa 2002, 41). In order to negotiations on climate change and gender perspectives is that assump- achieve adequate representation, the implementation of agreements tions of essentialism and universalism women must be acting as women, on become increasingly complex, Villa- in feminism have become outdated as behalf of other women, and in grasa suggests that it has become the field takes on a more post-mod- women’s interests. more and more difficult to invite in ern approach. Avoiding universalism At the current point in the climate stakeholders who have been previ- is especially worthy of concern with change regime formation process, ously disengaged from the process regard to the climate change process, one strategy that would serve to (Villagrasa 2002, 43). A mentorship in view of the differentiated experi- quickly integrate a gender perspective system could help identify the miss- ences, goals, and mitigation mecha- would be the design of gender-sensi- ing links and build competence in this nisms of women in the global North tive climate change mitigation strate- area, thus ensuring the continuity of and South, especially when it comes gies. Without requiring a total revi- the process as well as incorporating a to questions relating to development, sion of the process, gender-sensitive greater range of valuable interests. If industrialisation, and the strategies could be taken into account designed according to gender-equity environment (Dankelman 2002; within the existing mechanisms principles, this plan could stand to Masika 2002, 4; Littig 2002, 121).12 devised to mitigate climate change, improve not only equity, but also the The costs of gender-blindness, and such as the Global Environment overall efficiency of the process as it the benefits of gender-equity Facility (GEF) and the Clean Devel- reaches crucial stages of implementa- opment Mechanism (CDM) (Denton tion, enforcement, and further One further issue may need to be 2002, 16). Projects falling under the development. problematised before proceeding to a discretion of these mechanisms Thirdly, data collected to study conclusion that recommends gender should presume the inclusion of the the impacts of climate change on inclusion in the ongoing international main stakeholders at all stages of human populations should be disag- process of climate change project development anyway, thus gregated by sex in order to show the negotiation. Building on the notion providing a perfect opportunity to different experiences of women and of improving equity and efficiency in achieve a high measure of gender- men relative to climate change, as international systems, it may actually sensitivity (Denton 2002, 16).11 Since well as to climate change mitigation be premature to be contemplating there is “enough evidence to show strategies. If we do not know how gender equity in environmental crisis, that women are at the centre of sus- women and men are differently given the unresolved issues of tainable development, and that affected by climate change, then how poverty, inequality, and development ensuring gender equalities in all sec- can we effectively plan gender-equi- in the context of a globalising, liber- tors would mean that society as a table mitigation and adaptation alising world. After all, we have whole would benefit” (Denton 2002, strategies? Sex disaggregated data has never entirely made up for the lost 17), it seems logical to incorporate a proven vital to the analysis of conflict ‘development decade’ of the 1980s, gender perspective at the stage of mit- on men and women; it stands, simi- nor have we achieved the goals we igation design, given that it is too late larly, to illuminate the international established for developing sustain- to achieve the ideal incorporation of climate change negotiation process ably in the 1990s. Neither can we say such a perspective at all stages of the (UNIFEM 2003). with any confidence that the 20th process. Recommendations for improving Century featured the attainment of A second method which may the equity and efficiency of the inter- gender equality, despite whatever prove effective has been put forth by national climate change negotiation advances were made. Delia Villagrasa, who suggests that process will only increase in number However, I do not consider this developing a mentoring process may as more and more stakeholders are necessarily to be cause for pause in help to effectively integrate newcom- empowered to become involved in the current climate change negotia- ers, theoretically both women and the process. One key point to be tion process. It may be that the miti- men as required, into the process. As recalled during the consideration of gation of environmental degradation

110 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference and the expansion of gender equality suggested that until the process main- and Development Vol 10, no 2, pp. 21-29. could be catalytic elements in a streams a gender perspective at all Denton, Fatma (2002). “Climate change greater equation involving social and levels of regime formation and imple- vulnerability, impacts and adaptation: economic development as well.13 mentation—as should all UN-based why does gender matter?”. Gender and Development Vol 10 no 2, pp. 10-20. This has been proven to be the case activities—it will lack the gender-sen- Gierycz, Dorota (2001). “Women, Peace in certain, though rare, ‘post-conflict sitivity required to achieve truly and the United Nations: Beyond Beijing” moments’ (Cockburn 2001), where global relevance and legitimacy. in Inger Skjelsbaek and Dan Smith. Gen- the reorganisation of social order fol- Finally, out of interest and respect for der, Peace & Conflict. London: Sage Pub- lowing the social upheaval the continued development of the lications in association with Peace experienced during conflict has actu- process, I have highlighted a couple Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). ally had positive, equality-oriented of suggestions that may serve as a Greene, Owen (2001). “Environmental benefits for women.14 starting point for the integration of Issues” in J. Baylis and S. Smith (eds) The What may be enlightening in this gender equity. These recommenda- Globalisation of World Politics: an intro- duction to international relations. Second context is the reconsideration, or a tions may be necessary, but they are Edition, Oxford: Oxford UP, pp. 387- slight reinterpretation, of the ‘no certainly not sufficient to achieve 412. regrets’ principle. Rather than simply gender equity. They are, however, a Grubb, Michael, Matthias Koch, Koy having a situation in which starting point, and a start is most cer- Thomson, Abby Munson and Francis greenhouse gas emissions are reduced tainly hurriedly welcomed, lest we Sullivan (1993). The ‘Earth Summit’ to the point of negative net costs and reach a point where regret becomes Agreements: A Guide and Assessment. the generation of direct or indirect the dominant feeling associated with London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, Energy and Environmental Pro- benefits are considerable enough to the international climate change gramme. outweigh and offset the costs of negotiation process. Grubb, Michael with Christiaan Vrolijk implementing the options, perhaps and Duncan Brack (2001). The Kyoto Works Cited and References we could also envision a situation Protocol: A Guide and Assessment. Lon- where the direct and indirect benefits Boyd, Emily (2002). “The Noel Kempff don: Royal Institute of International of achieving gender equity (ie. effi- project in Bolivia: gender, power, and Affairs, Energy and Environmental Pro- gramme. ciency and equity) outweigh the costs decision-making in climate mitigation”. Gender and Development Vol 10, no 2, of implementing gender equitable Intergovernmental Panel on Climate pp. 70-77. Change (IPCC) (2001). “Summary for policies. It is by thinking in these Braidotti, Rosi, Ewa Charkiewicz, Sabine Policymakers. Climate Change 2001: terms that we will begin to fully com- Hunter and Saskia Wieringa (1994). Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability”. prehend the potential gains associ- Women, the Environment and Sustain- Report of Working Group II. ated with incorporating a gender per- able Development: Towards a Theoreti- www.ipcc.ch (April 2002). spective. cal Synthesis. London: Zed Books in Jacobson, Ruth (2002). Seminar Notes. association with INSTRAW. Conflict and Development in Latin Amer- Conclusion Cannon, Terry (2002). “Gender and cli- ica and Africa. University of Bradford, 25 mate hazards in Bangladesh”. Gender November 2002. I have begun to establish the regret- and Development Vol 10, no 2, pp. 45- Littig, Beate (2002). “The case for gen- table consequences associated with 50. der-sensitive socio-ecological research”. making the faulty assumption of gen- Cockburn, Cynthia (2001). “The Gen- Work, employment and society Vol 16 no der-neutrality in a process as anthro- dered Dynamics of Armed Conflict and 1, pp. 111-132. pocentric as the international climate Political Violence”. Caroline O.N. Moser Masika, Rachel (2002). “Editorial”. Gen- change negotiation process. By exam- & Fiona C. Clark (eds). Victims, Perpe- der and Development Vol 10 no 2, pp. 9. trators or Actors? Gender, Armed Con- ining the links between environmen- Mertus, Julie A. (2000). War’s Offensive flict and Political Violence. London: Zed on Women: The Humanitarian tal, development and gender Books, pp. 13-29. concerns, I have been able to demon- Challenge. Bloomfield, Connecticut: Dankelman, Irene (2002). “Climate Kumarian Press. strate how the process has remained change: learning from gender analysis Nelson, Valerie, Kate Meadows, Terry lacking in this area, and have and women’s experiences of organising Cannon, John Morton, and Adrienne for sustainable development”. Gender

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Martin (2002). “Uncertain predictions, Notes 5 In my view, this recognition of the invisible impacts, and the need to main- potential and actual effect of climate 1 stream gender in climate change adapta- My definition of effectiveness is drawn change on human beings should be tions”. Gender and Development Vol 10, partially from the conglomerate defini- enough of an indicator that gender no 2, pp. 51-59. tion explained in Oran R. Young and issues need to be addressed within the Marc A. Levy (1999) “The Effective- Rodda, Annabel (1991). Women and the process, given that the occasions are ness of International Environmental Environment. Women and World Devel- rare indeed that women and men expe- Regimes” pp. 1-32 in O. Young (ed) opment Series. London: Zed Books. rience major events in the exact same The Effectiveness of International Envi- ways (take conflict and/or violence as a Roy, Marlene and Henry David Venema ronmental Regimes: causal connections case in point). (2002). “Reducing risk and vulnerability and behavioural mechanisms London: 6 to climate change in India: the capabili- MIT Press. I incorporate their Although there is an ongoing debate on ties approach”. Gender and Development economic, normative, and political what causes climate change, the Inter- Vol 10, no 2, pp. 78-83. approaches, but add an additional governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the majority of scientists are Skutsch, Margaret M. (2002). “Proto- approach based on gender equity and of the conviction that human activities cols, treaties, and action: the ‘climate applicability. producing carbon dioxide and other change process’ viewed through gender 2 The UN General Assembly initiated this greenhouse gases are responsible for a spectacles”. Gender and Development series of meetings and discussions in major share of the measured and forth- Vol 10, no 2, pp. 30-39. 1989 when, following on from the coming change in the Earth’s climate. United Nations (1996). The Beijing Dec- Stockholm Conference of 1972, it man- See Margaret Skutsch (2002) “Proto- laration and the Platform for Action. dated the ‘Earth Summit’ to be held in cols, treaties, and action: the ‘climate Fourth World Conference on Women, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992. For a change process’ viewed through gender A/CONF.177/20. New York: United concise introductory synopsis on the spectacles” in Gender and Nations. historical process of climate change Development Vol 10, no 2, pp. 30-39. regime formation see Owen Greene United Nations Conference on Environ- 7 (2001) “Environmental Issues” in J. I fully acknowledge differences in ment and Development (UNCED) Baylis and S. Smith (eds) The Globalisa- responsibility for climate change occur- (1992). Agenda 21. Geneva: UNCED. tion of World Politics: an introduction ring along divisions in humanity other United Nations Development Fund for to international relations Second Edi- than gender divisions, such as differ- Women (UNIFEM) (2002). Agenda 21: tion, Oxford: Oxford UP, pp. 387-412. ences in human responsibility in devel- An easy reference to the specific recom- oped and developing countries, for 3 For example, among others, see Rosi mendations on women. Women, Environ- example, or between urban and rural Braidotti et al (1994) Women, the Envi- ment, Development Series. New York: dwellers. I confine myself to the discus- ronment and Sustainable Development: UNIFEM. sion of gender differences here only due Towards a Theoretical Synthesis Lon- to a lack of space in the limitations of United Nations Development Fund for don: Zed Books in association with this paper. Women (UNIFEM) (2003). “Women, INSTRAW, and Annabel Rodda (1991) 8 Peace and Security: Progress on UN Secu- Women and the Environment Women On women’s efforts to defy victimhood, rity Council Resolution 1325”. New and World Development Series, Lon- see, for example, Irene Dankelman York: UNIFEM. don: Zed Books. (2002) “Climate change: learning from gender analysis and women’s experi- Villagrasa, Delia (2002). “Kyoto Protocol 4 See Margaret Skutsch (2002) “Proto- ences of organising for sustainable negotiations: reflections on the role of cols, treaties, and action: the ‘climate development” and Delia Villagrasa women”. Gender and Development Vol change process’ viewed through gender (2002) “Kyoto Protocol negotiations: 10 no 2, pp. 40-44. spectacles” in Gender and reflections on the role of women” both Young, Oran R. & Marc A. Levy (1999). Development Vol 10, no 2, pp. 30-39. in Gender and Development Vol 10 no “The Effectiveness of International Envi- The most relevant exception to this is 2, pp. 21-29 and pp. 40-44, ronmental Regimes”. Oran Young (Ed) the inclusion of women as one of nine respectively. The Effectiveness of International Envi- ‘major groups’ deemed to have special 9 For example, Fatma Denton refers to ronmental Regimes: causal connections interests and connections to the imple- women’s differential responsibilities in and behavioural mechanisms. London: mentation of sustainable development the division of labour, and specifically MIT Press, pp. 1-32 initiatives, acknowledged in Agenda 21. See Chapter 24 of Agenda 21 for details to women’s involvement in agriculture of how UNCED perceived the inclusion and their dependence on biomass of a gender perspective with regard to energy, making them “key stakeholders sustainable development. in effective environmental management” and consequently also

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“particularly vulnerable to the risks feminist groups during the North risk and vulnerability to climate change posed by environmental depletion”. See American Free Trade Agreement in India: the capabilities approach”, all Fatma Denton (2002) “Climate change (NAFTA) integration process. Similarly of which are presented in Gender and vulnerability, impacts and adaptation: to the climate change process, the Development Vol 10 no 2, 2002, pp. why does gender matter?” Gender and NAFTA integration process was 45-50, pp. 70-77, and pp. 78-83, Development Vol 10 no 2, pp. 10-20. deemed to be a gender-neutral process. respectively. 10 Unfortunately, the confines of this However, when it was found that gen- 13 For a slightly lengthier consideration of paper do not give me license to explore der-neutrality was a faulty assumption, this possibility see Nelson et al (2002) the reasons for this failure, though there and that job losses and employment “Uncertain predictions, invisible are many and they are compelling. I retraining programs continued to fall impacts, and the need to mainstream must now move expeditiously on to a disproportionately to the disadvantage gender in climate change adaptations” consideration of how this process might of women, some elements of the process Gender and Development Vol 10, no 2, recover from its weaknesses by working were re-worked in order to incorporate pp. 51-59. a gender perspective into the process. to promote women’s agency and clear- 14 For example, women who have moved 12 ing the space required to allow gender For case studies illustrating some of into traditionally male roles (such as inclusiveness, on the road to realising these concerns, please see Terry Cannon working outside the home to support greater overall equity and efficiency. “Gender and climate hazards in the family while the usual male bread- 11 As a comparative example, one might Bangladesh”, Emily Boyd “The Noel winner serves as a combatant), have consider the design of gender-sensitive Kempff project in Bolivia: gender, sometimes been able to retain some of free trade adaptation mechanisms, power, and decision-making in climate this additional responsiblity and equity some of which were recommended by mitigation”, and Marlene Roy and even after the conflict ends. Henry David Venema “Reducing the

Jo Rotblat and members of ISYP.

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 113 THE 53RD PUGWASH CONFERENCE

Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia, Canada, 14–22 July 2003

Participants

Gen. (ret.) Mansour Abo Rashid, Chair- Sweden, Tel. (++46-8) 55 50 30 15, Fax: UK, Tel.: (++44-20) 7955 6073, Fax: man, Amman Center for Peace and (++46-8) 55 50 34, (++44-20) 7955 6781, E-mail: k.barzegar Development, Amman, Jordan E-mail: [email protected] @lse.ac.uk *Office: Amman Center for Peace and Ms. Carin Atterling Wedar, Lector, Theo- Dr. David V.J. Bell, Professor if Environ- Development, P.O. Box 3435, Amman, logical Faculty, University of Gothenburg; mental Studies (York University); Jordan, Tel.: (++962-6) 565-4651, Fax: Stockholm Toronto, Canada; (++962-6) 565-4652, Mobile: (++962-79) Office: Theological Seminary, University *Institute: York University, 4700 Keele 552-9411, E-mail: [email protected] of Gothenburg, Danska vagen 20, St., Toronto M3J 1P3, Canada, Tel.: Dr. Nestor Acosta Tieles, Doctor in Med- Gothenburg, Sweden (++1-416) 677-2873, Fax: (++905) 952- icine, Specialist in Pediatrics, Professor, E-mail: [email protected] 2255 E-mail: [email protected] Medical School, Vice-President for the Prof. John Avery, Associate Professor of Dr. Kennette Benedict, Director, Interna- Commission of Scientists of the Cuban Theoretical Chemistry, H.C. Ørsted Insti- tional Peace and Security Area, Program Movement for Peace and People’s Sover- tute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark on Global Security and Sustainability, eignty (MOVPAZ) Office: H.C. Ørsted Institute, University The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Institute: Tel.: 32 6561 (Hospital); of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, DK Foundation, Chicago, Illinois, USA; E-mail: [email protected] 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark, Tel.: *Office: The John D. and Catherine T. Amb. (ret.) Ochieng Adala, Member, (++45-35) 320288, Fax: (++45-35) MacArthur Foundation, 140 So. Dear- Pugwash Council; Africa Peace Forum 320299, E-mail: [email protected] born, Suite 1100, Illinois 60603, USA, (APFO), Nairobi, Kenya Fax: (++1-312) 917-0200, E-mail: Prof. Gabriel Baramki, Consultant to the *Office: APFO, P.O. Box 76621, Nairobi, [email protected] Palestinian Ministry of Higher Education, Kenya, Tel.: (++254-20) 574092/6, Fax: Jerusalem; President, Palestinian Council Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell, Executive Director, (++254-20) 561357, E-mail: apfo@ for Justice and Peace Pugwash Conferences on Science and amaniafrika.org *Office: Palestinian Ministry of Higher World Affairs, Washington, DC, USA; Ms. Ruth S. Adams, San Diego, CA, for- Education, POBox 17360, Jerusalem, via Member, Pugwash Executive Committee mer Program Director, The John D. and Israel, Tel.: (++970-2) 298-2604, Fax: *Office: Pugwash Conferences, 11 Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, (++970-2) 295-4518, E-mail: gbaramki@ Dupont Circle, NW, Suite 900, Washing- USA gov.ps ton, DC 20036, Tel.: (++1-202) 478- *Home: 9753 Keeneland Row, La Jolla, 3440, Fax: (++1-202) 238-9604, E-mail: Prof. Vladimir Baranovsky, Deputy CA 92037, Tel.: (++1-858) 678-0397, [email protected] Director, Institute of World Economy and Summer Tel.: (++1-970) 927-3380, International Relations (IMEMO), Mr. Newton Bowles, Senior Policy Advi- E-mail: [email protected] Moscow, Russia sor, UNICEF, New York, NY, USA; UN Dr. Haitham M.A. Al-Shaibani, former: *Office: IMEMO, Profsoyuznaya Str, 23, Representative for 1) Canadian Pugwash, Dean of the Military Engineering College 117859 Moscow, Russia, Tel.: (++7-095) 2) Canadian UN Association, 3) Cana- (1994-99); Head of the Department of 120 2461, Fax: (++7-095) 310 7027 or dian Group of 78 Health Physics, Iraqi Atomic Energy 120 1450, E-mail: [email protected] *Institution: UNICEF, 3 UN Plaza, NY, Organization (1981-91); (and) [email protected] NY 10017, USA, Tel.: (++1-212) 326- Contact: Tel.: (++964-1) 774-0843, 7322, Fax: (++1-212) 326-7037, E-mail: Dr. Kayhan Barzegar (Iran), Visiting E-mail: [email protected] C/O [email protected] Research Fellow, London School of Dr. Gunnar Arbman, Director of Economics and Political Science (LSE), Prof. Patrick Boyer, Q.C., Chairman, Research, Swedish Defence Research London, UK Pugwash Park Commission, Nova Scotia, Agency (FOI), Stockholm, Sweden *Institute: LSE, CIS Department, Canada; *Office: FOI, SE-172 90 Stockholm, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, *Office: Pugwash Park Commission, 2583 Lakeshore Blvd. West, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M8V 1G3, Tel.: (++1-

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416) 255-3930, Fax: (++1-416) 252- Lungara 10, I-00165 Rome, Italy, Tel.: Milan, Italy, Tel.: (**39-02) 5031 7277, 8291, E-mail: patrickboyer@ (**39-06) 687-2606, Fax: (**39-06) Fax: (**39-02) 5031 7480, E-mail: sympatico.ca 687-8376, E-mail: [email protected] [email protected], Dr. Giovanni Brenciaglia, formerly Man- Mr. Lars van Dassen, Director, Swedish [email protected] ager of Nuclear Fuel & Reactor Physics, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Assistance Ontario Hydro, Toronto, Canada; Col. (ret.) Pierre Canonne, Member, Pug- Programme (SNNAP), Office of Non- *Home: 1123 Wolf Bay Rd., RR#4 wash Council ; Senior Lecturer, Disarma- Proliferation, Swedish Nuclear Power Huntsville, Ontario, Canada P1H 2J6, ment and Arms Control, Univ. Marne-la- Inspectorate (SKI), Stockholm, Sweden Tel.: (++1-705) 788-1211, Fax: (++1-705) Vallés/Paris, France *Office: SKI, SE-106 58 Stockholm, Swe- 789-2553, E-mail: [email protected] *Home: 29 Avenue Danton, 43300 den, Tel.: (++46-8) 698 84 38, Fax: Langeac, France, Tel.: (++33-6) 71 89 06 (++46-8) 661 90 86, E-mail: Dr. Lee-Anne Broadhead, Associate Pro- 56, Fax: (++33-4) 71 77 24 57, E-mail: [email protected] fessor, Political Science and Director Cen- [email protected] tre for International Studies at University Ms. Bev Tolletson Delong, Chairperson, College of Cape Breton, Sydney, Nova Ms. Theodora Carroll, Consultant, Ad Canadian Network to Abolish Nuclear Scotia, Canada Astra Environmental Consulting Services, Weapons; President, Lawyers for Social *Institute: University College of Cape Squamish, BC, Canada Responsibility (Canada) Breton, P.O. Box 5300, 1250 Grand Lake *Office/Home: Ad Astra Environmental *Home: 5120 Carney Rd., NW, Calgary, Road, Sydney, Nova Scotia, Canada B1P Consulting Services, Box 241, 1026 AB, Canada T2L 1G2, Tel.: (++1-403) 6L2, Tel.: (++1-902) 563-1626, Fax: Edgewater Crescent, Squamish V0N 282-8260, Fax: (++1-403) 289-4272, (++1-902) 563-1247, E-mail: 3G0, BC, Canada, Tel./Fax: (++1-604) E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] 898-5658, E-mail: carrolltheodora@ Amb. Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka), hotmail.com Dr. Adele Buckley, Vice President, Tech- immediate past Under-Secretary-General nology & Research, Ontario Centre for Ms. Chen Huaifan, Deputy Chief, for Disarmament Affairs, United Nations, Environmental Technology Advancement Research Division, Chinese People’s New York, NY, USA, E-mail: jaydee@ (OCETA), Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Association for Peace and sltnet.lk Deputy Chair, Canadian Pugwash Group Disarmament (CPAPD), Beijing, China Prof. Nola Dippenaar, Professor, Dept. of Office: OCETA, 63 Polson St., 2nd floor, Office: CPAPD, 15 Wanshou Road, P. O. Physiology, School of Medicine, Faculty Toronto, ON M5A 1A4, Canada, Tel.: Box 188, 100036, Beijing, China, Tel.: of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, (++1-416) 778-5281, Fax: (++1-416) (++86-10) 68214433 (x8587), Fax: Pretoria, South Africa; Vice-Chair, South 778-5624, E-mail: [email protected] (++86-10) 68273675, E-mail: cpapd@ African Pugwash Group cpapd.org.cn Mr. Wajahat Bukhari, Assitant Editor, *Office: Dept. of Physiology, University Daily Times, Lahore, Pakistan Mr. Chen Jifeng, Member, Pugwash of Pretoria, PO Box 2034, Pretoria 0001, Office: Daily Times, 41-N, Industrial Council; Convener, Pugwash Group of South Africa, Tel. (++27-12) 319 2150, Area, Gulberg II, Lahore, Pakistan, Tel.: China; Vice President, China Arms Con- Fax: (++27-12) 321 1679, Cell.: (++27- (++92-42) 587-88614-19, Fax: (++92-42) trol and Disarmament Association; Exec- 82) 9000 970, E-mail: nola@medic. 587-8620, E-mail: wajahat@dailytimes. utive Vice-President, China Association up.ac.za com.pk for Promotion of International Science Prof. Walter Dorn, Associate Professor, and Peace; Adviser, Chinese People’s Mr. Martin Butcher, Director of Security Department of Politics and Economics, Association for Peace and Disarmament Programs, Physicians for Social Responsi- Royal Military College of Canada, (CPAPD) bility (PSR), Washington, DC, USA Kingston, Ontario, Canada; *Office: CPAPD, PO Box 188, 15 Wan- *Office: PSR, 1875 Connecticut Avenue *Office: Department of Politics and Eco- shou Rd., Beijing, China 100036, Tel.: NW, Suite 1012, Washington DC, USA, nomics, Royal Military College of (++86-10) 6827-1736 or 6821-4433 (ext. Tel.: (++1-202) 667-4260, Fax: (++1-202) Canada, P.O. Box 17000, Stn Forces, 8586), Fax: (++86-10) 6827-3675, 667-4201, E-mail: [email protected] Kingston, ON K7K 7B4, Canada, Tel.: E-mail: [email protected] (++1-613) 541-6000 x6742, Fax: (++1- Mrs. Sandra Ionno Butcher, Independent Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- 613) 5416733, E-mail: [email protected] consultant, Falls Church, VA, USA General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- (or) [email protected] *Home: 2162 Evans Court, #204, Falls ence and World Affairs; Member, Pug- Church, VA 22043 USA, Tel.: (++1-703) Dr. Lynn Eden, Member, Pugwash Coun- wash Executive Committee; Professor of 893-3788, E-mail: sibutcher@ cil; Associate Director for Mathematical Physics, University of earthlink.net Research/Senior Research Scholar, Center Milan, Italy; Director, Program on Disar- for International Security and Coopera- Prof. Francesco Calogero, Member, Pug- mament and International Security, Lan- tion (CISAC), Institute for International wash Council; Professor of Theoretical dau Network—Centro Volta, Como, Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, Physics, University of Rome “La Italy California; USA, Co-Chair U.S. Pugwash Sapienza”, Rome, Italy *Office: Department of Physics, Univer- Group *Office: Rome Pugwash Office, via della sity of Milan, Via Celoria 16, 20133

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*Office: ISAC, 94305-6165, Tel.: (++1- Calgary , AB Canada T2M IG8, Tel.: 3, Pyzhevsky per., Moscow 109017, Rus- 650) 725 5369, Fax: (++1-650) 724 (++1-403) 210 2184 E-mail: fisklarry@ sia, Tel.: (++7-095) 951-0710, Fax: (++7- 5683, E-mail: [email protected] hotmail.com 095) 953-1652, E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Karl-Erik Eriksson, Professor (part- Lic. Orlando Fundora Lopez, President of Prof. Galia Golan-Gild, Professor of Gov- time), Department of Engineering the Cuban Movement for Peace and Peo- ernment, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Sciences, Karlstad University, Karlstad, ple’s Sovereignty, Havana, Cuba; Herzlia, Israel; Sweden *Office: Cuban Movement for Peace and *Office: IDC, POB 167, Herzlia, Israel, Office: Department of Engineering Sci- Sovereignty of People, Línea #556, Tel.: (+972-9) 952-7399, Fax: (++972-9) ences, Karlstad University, SE 65188 Vedado, Havana 10400, Cuba, Tel.: 956-8605, E-mail: [email protected] Karlstad, Sweden, Tel.: (++46-54) 700- (++537) 320-490, Fax: (++537) 333 Prof. Franklyn Griffiths, Ignatieff Chair 2166/1234, Fax: (++46-54) 700-1156, 860/321 492, E-mail: [email protected] Emeritus of Peace and Conflict Studies, E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Bas de Gaay Fortman, Professor of University of Toronto, Canada Prof. Stale Eskeland, Professor of Crimi- Political Economy of Human Rights, Fac- *Home: 360 Brunswick Ave., Toronto, nal Law, University of Oslo, Oslo, Nor- ulty of Law, Utrecht University, and Ontario, DCanada M5R 2Y9, Tel.: (++1- way Emeritus Professor of Political Economy, 410) 925-4293, E-mail: franklyn. *Institute: Institute of Public and Interna- Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, [email protected] tional Law, P.B. 6706, St. Olavs Plass, The Netherlands; Dr. Eric Guichard, Head, “Réseaux, 0166 Oslo, Norway, Tel.: (+47-22) *Office: Netherlands Institute of Human Savoirs & Territoires” Research Group, 859443, Fax: (++47-22) 859655, E-mail: Rights, Faculty of Law, Utrecht Univer- Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris, France [email protected] sity, Janskerhhof 3, 3512 BK Utrecht, The ; Secretary, French Pugwash Group Netherlands, Tel.: (++31-30) 253-8117, Dr. Esmat Ezz, Professor, Military Med- *Office: INRIA / ENS, 45 rue d’Ulm, Fax: (++31-30) 253-7168, E-mail: ical Academy, Cairo, Egypt 75005 Paris, France, Tel.: (++33-1) [email protected] *Home: 43 Misr Helwan Road, Maadi 44.32.30.04, E-mail: Eric.Guichard@ 11431, Cairo, Egypt, Tel.: (++20-2) 358- Prof. Evangelos Georgiou, Ass. Professor, ens.fr 5899, Mobile: (++20-1) 2395-1351, Fax: Medical Physics Department, Athens Uni- Mrs. Regina Hagen, Coordinator, Inter- (++20-2) 340-7915, E-mail: e_ezz@ versity, Athens, Greece national Network of Engineers and Scien- hotmail.com (and) [email protected] Office: Medical Physics Dept., Athens tists Against Proliferation (INESAP), University Medical School, 75 Mikras Ms. Maha Fattah, Deputy Chief Editor Darmstadt, Germany Asias Str., Athens 11527, Greece, Tel.: for International Affairs, Akhbar el yom *Office: INESAP, c/o IANUS, Darmstadt (++210) 746-2368, Fax: (++210) 746- Publishing House, Cairo, Egypt University of Technology, Hochschulstr. 2369, E-mail: [email protected]; Office: Akhbar el yom Publishing House, 4a, D-64289 Darmstadt, Germany, Tel.: [email protected] 6 Sahafa St., Boulac, Cairo, Egypt, Tel.: (++49-6151) 16 44 68, Fax: (++49-6151) (++20-2) 578-2900, Fax: (++20-2) 578- Ms. Ann Gertler, Member, Canadian 16 60 39, E-mail: inesap@hrzpub. 2520; E-mail: [email protected] Pugwash Group Executive; Advisor to tu-darmstadt.de the International Peace Bureau Dr. Eric T. Ferguson, Secretary of Pug- Dr. Karen Hallberg, Research Fellow, *Home: 482 Strathcona, Westmount, QC wash Netherlands; Consultant on Energy National Council of Science and Technol- H3Y 2X1, Canada, Tel.: (++1-514) 933- and Development, MacFergus bv, Eind- ogy, Argentina; 7913, Fax: (++1-514) 933-1702, E-mail: hoven, Netherlands *Office: Centro Atomico Bariloche, 8400 [email protected] *Office/Home: van Reenenweg 3, NL- Bariloche, Argentina, Tel.: (++54-2944) 3702 SB Zeist, Netherlands, Tel.: (++31- Ing. Jorge Eduardo Gil, Engineer, Renew- 445170, Fax: (++54-2944) 445299, 30) 267-3638, E-mail: e.ferguson@ able Energy Projects, Electromechanical E-mail: [email protected] antenna.nl & Civil Installations, San Carlos de Bar- Mr. Tom Børsen Hansen, Assistant Pro- iloche, Argentina; Prof. John Finney, Professor of Physics, fessor, Centre for Science Education, Fac- *Home/Office: Casilla de Correos 1916, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Univer- ulty of Science, University of (R8400AMC) San Carlos de Bariloche, sity College London, UK Copenhagen, Denmark: Provincia de Rio Negro, Argentina, Tel.: *Office: Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, *Office: Centre for Science Education, (++54-2944) 424 587, E-mail: University College London, Gower Street, Faculty of Science, University of Copen- [email protected] London WC1E 6BT, UK, Tel. hagen, Denmark, Tel.: (++45-35) 32 04 : (++44-20) 7679-7850, Fax: (++44-20) Prof. Alexander Ginzburg, Deputy Direc- 73, E-mail: [email protected] 7679-1360, E-mail: [email protected] tor, A.M. Obuklov Institute of Atmos- Prof. John (Jack) Harris, Member, British pheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sci- Dr. Larry J. Fisk, Professor Emeritus of Pugwash Council ences; Professor of Climate Change, Political, Peace and Conflict Studies, *Home: Church Farm House, 28 Hopton International University in Moscow, Mount Saint Vincent University, Halifax, Road, Cam, Dursley, Glos GL11 5PB, Russia; Canada UK, Tel./Fax: (++44-1453) 543165, *Office: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, *Home: Alt. #2, 1640-20th Ave. N:W. E-mail: [email protected]

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Prof. Christopher R. (Kit) Hill, Professor *Office: The Acronym Institute for Disar- Prof. Janusz Komender, Member, Polish Emeritus, Institute of Cancer Research, mament Diplomacy, 24 Colvestone Cres- Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Royal Marsden Hospital, Surrey, UK; cent, London E8 2LH, England, Tel.: Institution: Polish Academy of Sciences, Secretary, British Pugwash Group (++44-20) 7503 8857, E-mail: 00-901 Warsaw, Pl. Oefilad 1 PKIN, Office: Institute of Cancer Research, [email protected], Poland, Tel.: (++48-22) 620-3332, Fax: Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton, Surrey www.acronym.org.uk (++48-22) 620-3803 SM2 5PT, UK Gen. (ret.) Dr. Mohamed Kadry Said, Prof. Michiji Konuma, Professor Emeri- Prof. Robert Hinde, former Royal Society Member, Pugwash Council; Head of Mil- tus of Physics, Keio University; Japan Research Professor (now retired) itary Studies Unit and Technology Advi- *Office: Musashi Institute of Technology, *Office: St. John’s College, Cambridge sor, Al-Ahram Center for Political and Yokohama 224-0015, Japan, Tel.: (++81- CB2 1TP, UK, Tel.: (++44-1223) 339 356, Strategic Studies, Al-Ahram Foundation, 45) 910-2500, Fax: (++81-45) 910-2600, Fax: (++44-1223) 337 720, E-mail: Cairo, Egypt; Professor of Missile E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] Mechanics of Flight, Military Technical Dr. Peter H. Langille, Senior Research College (MTC), Cairo, Egypt Prof. John Holdren, Teresa & John Heinz Associate & Human Security Fellow, *Office: Al-Ahram Center for Political Professor of Environmental Policy & Peace and Conflict Studies, UN Peace and Strategic Studies, Al-Ahram Founda- Director, Program in Science, Technology, Operations,Victoria, BC, Canada tion, Al-Galaa St., Cairo, Egypt, Tel.: & Public Policy, Center for Science & *Office: Centre for Global Studies, Uni- (++20-2) 578-6114, Fax: (++20-2) 578- International Affairs (CSIA), John F. versity of 472-4830 E-mail: 6037, E-mail: [email protected]; Kennedy School of Government, and Pro- [email protected] [email protected] fessor of Environmental Science & Public Mr. Bob Lawson, Senior Policy Advisor, Policy, Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sci- Dr. Ayman Khalil, Governing Board, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and ences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Center for Research on Arms Control Disarmament (IDA), Department of For- Massachusetts, USA; and Security (CRACS), Amman, Jordan eign Affairs and International Trade, *Office: CSIA, JFK School of Gov’t, 79 *Office: CRACS, P.O.Box 141939, Canada JFK St., Cambridge, MA 02138, Tel.: Amman—Jordan, Tel (+962-79) 556- *Office: IDA, Dept. of Foreign Affairs & (++1-617) 495-1464, Fax: (++1-617) 9317, Fax (+962-6) 581-8062, E-mail: International Trade, Lester B. Pearson 495-8963, E-mail: john_holdren@ [email protected] Building, 125 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, harvard.edu Gen. Kim Jae Myong, Advisor, Military Ontario K1A 0G2, Canada, Tel.: (++1- Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Member, Pug- Operations Research Society, Seoul, 613) 944-1003, Fax: (++1-613) 944- wash Council; Professor, Department of Korea; 3105, E-mail: bob.lawson@ Physics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islam- *Office: Military Operations Research dfait-maeci.gc.ca abad, Pakistan Society, P.O. Box 250, Chongryang-Ri, Mrs. Christine Lindhard Ramirez, Prac- *Office: Fax: (++92-51) 282 4257, Tongdaemun-Ku, Seoul, Korea, Tel.: (++- ticing Therapist, Madrid, Spain E-mail: [email protected] 2) 416-0581, Fax: (++-2) 412-6897, *Home/Office: P.O. Box 2, 28792 E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Sean Howard, Consultant Miraflores de la Sierra (Madrid), Spain, Researcher/Editor, Disarmament Diplo- Dr. Berma Klein Goldewijk, Director, Tel./Fax: (++34-91) 844-4695, E-mail: macy (since 1996), Canada Cedar International, Center for Dignity [email protected] *Home/Office: 2081 Main-à-Dieu, Nova and Rights, The Hague, The Netherlands Prof. Lee Lorch, Department of Mathe- Scotia, Canada B1C 1W5, Tel./Fax: (++1- *Office: Cedar International, Centre for matics and Statistics, York University, 902) 733-2918, E-mail: sean.howard@ Dignity and Rights, TMC Asser Institute Toronto, Canada ns.sympatico.ca for International Law, R.J. Schimmelpen- *Office: Dept. of Mathematics & Statis- nincklaan 20-22, 2517 JN The Hague, Dr. Jo Husbands, Director, Committee on tics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, The Netherlands, Tel.: (++ 31-70) 310 91 International Security and Arms Control Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada, Tel.: 71, Fax: (++ 31-70) 310 91 75, E-mail: (CISAC), National Academy of Sciences (++1-416) 736-5250, Fax: (++1-416) [email protected] (NAS), Washington, D.C., USA 736-5757, E-mail: [email protected]. *Office: CISAC/NAS, 500 5th Street NW, Dr. Lydie Koch-Miramond, Scientific yorku.ca Washington, DC 20001, USA, Tel.: (++1- Advisor, French Atomic Energy Commis- Mr. Morten Bremer Maerli, Researcher, 202) 334-2811, Fax: (++1-202) 334- sion (CEA), Direction des Sciences de la Norwegian Institute of International 1730, E-mail: [email protected] Matiere, Paris, France; Chair, Euroscience Affairs (NUPI), Oslo, Norway Working Group: Ethics in Science (2000-) Dr. Rebecca Johnson, Executive Director, *Office: NUPI, P.O. Box 8159 Dep., N- *Office: CEA, Tel.: (++33-1) The Acronym Institute for Disarmament 0033 Oslo, Norway, Tel.: (++47) 22 05 69.08.76.91, Fax: (++33-1) 69.08.65.77, Diplomacy, London, UK; Board Member, 65 03, Fax: (++47) 22 17 70 15, E-mail: E-mail: [email protected] Educational Foundation for Nuclear Sci- [email protected] ence (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists); Publisher, Disarmament Diplomacy

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Dr .Miguel Marin-Bosch, Member, Pug- Dr. Peter Meincke, President Emeritus, *Office: International Center of Biocyber- wash Council; Professor, Universidad Universtity of Prince Edward Island, netics, ul. Ksiecia Trojdena 4, 02-109 Iberoamericana, México, D. F., Mexico Charlottetown PE C1A 4P3, Canada Warsaw, Poland, Tel.: (++48-22) 658- *Office: Universidad Iberoamericana, Home: 1236 River Road RR#3, 2877, Fax: (++48-22) 658-2872, E-mail: Prol. Paseo de la Reforma 880, Lomas de Manotick Ontario Canada K4M 1B4, [email protected] Santa Fe, México, D. F. 01210 Mexico, Tel./Fax: (++1-613) 692 2785, Cell: (++1- Prof. Giuseppe Nardulli, Professor of Tel.:. 59507678, E-mail: mmarinbosch@ 613) 866 1582, E-mail: Theoretical Physics, University of Bari, hotmail.com [email protected] Italy http://www.upei.ca/~meincke Prof. Omar Masera, Professor of Ecology, *Office: Physics Department, University Instituto de Ecología, National Prof. Asoka Mendis, Research professor, of Bari, Via E. Orabona 4, 70126 Bari, Autonomous University of Mexico Department of Electrical & Computer Italy, Tel.: (++39-080) 544-3206, (UNAM), Campus Morelia, Michoacan, Engineering, University of California San Fax: (++39-080) 544-2470, E-mail: Mexico; Advisor to Secretary of Environ- Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA [email protected] ment and Natural Resources] *Institute: Department of Electrical & Ms. Binalakshmi Nepram, School of *Office: Instituto de Ecología, UNAM, Computer Engineering, University of Cal- International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru A.P. 152, Patzcuaro 61609, Michoacan, ifornia San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093- University, New Delhi, India Mexico, Tel./Fax: (++52-434) 23216, 0407, USA, Tel.: (++1-858) 534-2719, Office: School of International Studies, E-mail: [email protected] Fax: (++1-858) 822-3214, E-mail: Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi [email protected] Prof. Jiri Matousek, Professor of Toxicol- 110067, India, Tel.: (++98-91) 210-264 ogy, Masaryk University Brno, Faculty of Mr. Lucius (D.L.O.) Mendis, Technical (mobile), Fax: (++91-11) 2619-6117, Science, Research Centre for Advisor, Ministry of Irrigation and Water E-mail: [email protected] / Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxi- Management, Colombo, Sri Lanka [email protected].. cology, Brno, Czech Republic Office Ministry of Irrigation and Water Dr. Götz Neuneck, Member, Pugwash Office: Masaryk University Brno, Faculty Management, Sri Lanka T B Jayah Council Senior Fellow, IFSH, Hamburg, of Science, Research Centre for Environ- Mawatha, Colombo 10, Sri Lanka, Germany mental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology, Tel./Fax: (++94-1) 593210; E-mail: *Office: IFSH, Falkenstein 1, D-22587 Kamenice 3, CZ-25 00 Brno, Czech [email protected] Hamburg, Germany, Tel.: (++49-40) Republic, Tel.: (++420-5) 4712-1411, Dr. Steven Miller, Director, International 866077-21, Fax: (++49-40) 866-3615, Fax: (++420-5) 4712-1431, E-mail: Security Program, Center for Science & E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] International Affairs (CSIA), Harvard Dr. Elaine Newman, Professor, Dept. of Prof. (R.) Ian McAllister, Professor of University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, Biology, Concordia University, Montreal, Economics and International Develop- USA Quebec, Canada ment Studies, Department of Economics, *Office: CSIA, Harvard University, Cam- *Office: Dept. of Biology, Concordia Uni- Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Sco- bridge, Massachusetts, Tel.: (++1-617) versity, 1455 de Maisonneuve West, tia, Canada 495 1411, Fax: (++1-617) 495 8963, Montreal, H3G 1M8 Quebec, Canada, *Institution: Department of Economics, E-mail: steven_miller @harvard.edu Tel.: (++1-514) 848 3410,Cell: (++1-514) Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Sco- Dr. Robert Mtonga, General Practictioner 572-4307, Fax: (++1-514) 848 2881, tia, B3H 3J5, Tel.: (++902) 494 -6993, to Lusaka Hospitals, Zambia Email: [email protected] Fax: (++902) 494-6917 E-maol: ian.mcal- Office: University of Zambia, P.O. Box [email protected] Prof. Jiri Niederle, President, Council for 50110, Lusaka, Zambia, Tel.: (++260) Foreign Affairs of the Academy of Sci- Prof. Anne McLaren, Principal Research 9784 2922, Fax: (++260-1) 250-753, ences of the Czech Republic *Institute: Associate, Wellcome Trust/Cancer E-mail: [email protected] (and) ASCR, Narodni Street 3, 117 20 Prague Research UK, [email protected]; 1, Czech Republic, Tel.: (++420-224) 240 *Institute: Tel.: (++44-1223) 334 088, [email protected] 532, Fax: (++420-224) 240 608, E-mail: E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Marie Muller, Chair, Pugwash [email protected] Mr. André L. Mechelynck, retired Engi- Council; Dean, Faculty of Humanities, Dr. Alexander Nikitin, Director, Center neer, now Consultant in Energy Matters, University of Pretoria, South Africa for Political and International Studies Huldenberg, Belgium *Office: University of Pretoria, Pretoria (CPIS), Moscow, Russia *Office/Home: Koxberg 25, B-3040 0002, Republic of South Africa, Tel.: *Office: Center for Political and Interna- Huldenberg, Belgium, Tel.: (++32-2) 687 (++27-12) 420-2318, Fax: (++27-12) 420 tional Studies, Prospect Mira 36, 4212, Cellular: (++32-475) 87.79.41, 4501, E-mail: [email protected] Moscow 129010, Russia, Tel.: (++7- Fax: (++32-2) 687 3157, E-mail: Prof. Maciej Nalecz retired Director, 095)280-3441, Fax: (++7-095) 135- [email protected] Institute of Biocybernetics and Biomed- 5279, E-mail: [email protected] ical Engineering, PAS (1975-94), Warsaw, Poland

118 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

Mr. Niu Qiang, Secretary General, Chi- Dr. Annaswamy N. Prasad, (++1-902) 688-1161, Fax: (++1-902) nese People’s Association for Peace and Commissioner, UNMOVIC, United 688-1149, E-mail: mccreford@ Disarmament (CPAPD), Beijing, China Nations, New York ns.sympatico.ca *Office: CPAPD, PO Box 188, 15 Wan- *Home: 114/74, 6th Main Road, 5th Hon. John B. Rhinelander, Senior Coun- shou Rd., Beijing, China 100036, Tel.: Block, Jayanagar, Bangalore-560 041, sel, Shaw Pittman, Washington, DC, USA (++86-10) 6827-1736, Fax: (++86-10) India, Tel.: (++91-80) 665-1106, E-mail: *Office: Shaw Pittman, 2300 N St. NW, 6827-3675, E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] Washington, DC 20037-1128, USA, Tel: (and) [email protected] Mr. Jan Prawitz, Visiting Scholar, (++1-202) 663-8048, Fax: (++1-202) Prof. Kathryn Nixdorff, Professor, Dept. Swedish Institute for International 663-8007, E-mail: john.rhinelander@ of Microbiology and Genetics, Darmstadt Affairs, Stockholm, Sweden shawpittman.com University of Technology, Darmstadt, Office: P.O. Box 1253, SE-111 82 Stock- Senator Douglas Roche, O.C., The Senate Germany holm, Sweden, Tel. (++46-8) 23 40 60, of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario *Office: Dept. of Microbiology and Fax. (++46-8) 20 10 49, E-mail: *Office: University of Alberta, Edmon- Genetics, Darmstadt University of Tech- [email protected] ton, Alberta, Canada, Tel.: (++1-780) nology, Schnittspahnstr. 10, D-64287 Prof. Gwyn Prins, Alliance Professor, 466-8072, Fax (++1-780) 469-4732, Darmstadt, Germany, Tel.: (++49-6151) London School of Economics and Politi- E-mail: [email protected] 163955, Fax: (++49-6151) 162956, cal Sciences, UK E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Jorge Rodríguez Grillo, Doctor in *Office: LSE, Room V912, London, UK, Sociological Sciences; Cuban Movement Prof. Hitoshi Ohnishi, Vice President, Tel.: (++44-20) 7852 3678, E-mail: for Peace and Sovereignty of Peoples, and Professor of International Relations [email protected] Cuba in the School of Law, Tohoku University, Dr. Victor Rabinowitch, Consultant in *Home: Edif. 8 apto.202, Ciudad Camilo Sendai, Japan Science & International Affairs, Develop- Cienfuegos, Habana del Este, Havana, *Office: School of Law, Tohoku Univer- ment, Philanthropy, Washington, DC, Cuba, Tel.: (++537) 952123 / 320506, sity,Kawauchi, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980- USA Fax: (++537) 333860, E-mail: 8577, Japan; E-mail: [email protected] *Home: Tenley Hill, #507, Washington, [email protected] Gen. Pan Zhenqiang, Professor, Institute DC 20016, Tel.: (++1-202) 363-2414, Sir Joseph Rotblat, Emeritus Professor of of Strategic Studies, National Defense Fax: (++1-202) 363-0565, E-mail: Physics, University of London, UK University, PLA, China [email protected] Office: Pugwash Conferences on Science *Office: Institute of Strategic Studies, Prof. J. Martin Ramirez, Professor of Psy- and World Affairs, Flat A Museum Man- National Defense University, PLA, China, chiatry, and Head, Psychobiology Depart- sions, 63A Great Russell Street, London No. 14, Building 281, A-3 Hongshankou, ment, & Institute for Biofunctional Stud- NC1B 3BJ, England, Tel.: (++44-20) Tel/Fax: (++86-10) 8283-1159, E-mail: ies, Universidad Complutense, Madrid, 7405 6661, Fax: (++44-20) 7831 5651. [email protected] Spain E-mail: [email protected] Shri Ashok Parthasarathi, Professor, Cen- Office: Psychobiology Department, & Acad. Yuri Ryzhov, President, Interna- tre for Studies in Science Policy, School of Institute for Biofunctional Studies, Uni- tional Engineering University, Moscow, Social Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru Uni- versidad Complutense Madrid, Spain, Russia versity (JNU), New Delhi, India Tel./Fax: (++34-91) 8444-695, Fax: *Institute: 6 Leninsky pr., Moscow, Rus- Office: Centre for Studies in Science Pol- (++34-91) 394-31 89, E-mail: sia, Tel.: (++7-095) 236-5066 / 9761, icy, School of Social Sciences-1, JNU, [email protected] Fax: (++7-095) 236-1469, E-mail: New Delhi-110067, Tel.: (++91-11) Mr. Robert W. Reford, Writer; Co- [email protected] 2617-9906, Fax: (++91-11) 2619-5777; founder, Reford-McCandless E-mail: [email protected] Ms. Ritva Saario, Lawyer and Researcher International, Canada in Humanitarian Law, University of Prof. Derek Paul, retired Professor of *Home/Office: Reford-McCandless, R.R. Helsinki, Finland Physics, University of Toronto, Canada #1, 4978 Crescent Beach Road, La Have, *Home: Pohj. Hesperiankatu 13 B 25, *Home: 122 Hilton Avenue, Toronto, Nova Scotia, Canada, B0R 1C0, Tel.: FIN-00260 Helsinki, Finland, Tel.: Ontario, Canada M5R 3E7, Tel.: (++1- (++1-902) 688-1161, Fax: (++1-902) (++358-9) 454 3638, Mobile: (++358-40) 416)-532 6440;Fax: (++1-416)-532 688-1149, E-mail: mccreford@ 523 1369, E-mail: ritvasaario@ 8009. Email: [email protected] ns.sympatico.ca hotmail.com Prof. Amnon Pazy, Professor of Mathe- Mrs. Stephanie McCandless Reford, Dr. Walter Scheuer, former Senior matics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, President, Co-founder, Reford- Researcher/Head of Department (1953- Israel McCandless International, Canada 1989), Argentine Atomic Energy Com- *Office: Dept. of Mathematics, Hebrew *Home/Office: Reford-McCandless, R.R. mission University, Jerusalem 91904, Israel, Tel.: #1, 4978 Crescent Beach Road, La Have, *Home: Av. E. Bustillo 22800, San Carlos (++972-2) 658-5127, Fax: (++972-2) Nova Scotia, Canada, B0R 1C0, Tel.: 563-0702, E-mail: [email protected]

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 119 53rd Pugwash Conference de Bariloche (Rio Negro), Argentina, Prof. Metta Spencer, Emeritus Professor, Committee; UNESCO Chair in Ecotech- Tel./Fax: (++54-42944) 448 294, E-mail: University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, nology ; Chairman, MS Swaminathan [email protected] Canada Research Foundation, Chennai, India *Home: 155 Marlee Ave., Apt. 201, *Office: , MS Swaminathan Research Mr. Douglas Scott, President, The Mark- Toronto, ON, Canada M6B 4B5, Tel.: Foundation, 3rd Cross Street, Taramani land Group, Ancaster, ON, Canada (++1-416) 789-2294, Fax: (++1-416) Institutional Area, Chennai-600 113, *Home/Office: The Markland Group, 789-4508, E-mail: [email protected] India, Tel.: (++91-44) 254 2790 / 1698, 203-150 Wilson Street, Ancaster, ON, Fax: (++91-44) 254 1319, E-mail: Canada L9G 4E7, Tel.: (++1-905) 648- Dr. Malur Srinivasan, Member, National [email protected] 3306, Fax: (++1-905) 648-2563, E-mail: Security Advisory Board; Senior [email protected] Adviser/Consultant, Tamilnadu, India Ms. Mariko Taniuchi, Journalist, Tokyo, *Home/Office: Sunningdale, Kota Giri Japan Prof. Behzad Shahandeh, Full Professor, Road, Ootacamund-643002, Tamilnadu, *Home: 2-6-21 Horinouchi, #B-104, Sug- Faculty of Law and Political Science, India, Tel.: (++91-423) 2443 216, Fax: inami-ku, Tokyo, Japan 166-0013, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran (++91-423) 2442 572, E-mail: Tel./Fax: (++81-3) 3316 8320, e-mail: Office: Faculty of Law and Political Sci- [email protected] [email protected] ence, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran, Tel.: (++982-1) 877 3894, Fax: (++982-1) Prof. Jean-Pierre Stroot (Belgium/ Mr. Murray Thomson, Member CAN, 896-9565, E-mail: shahandeh2001@ Switzerland), retired Physicist ; Geneva Network to abolish nuclear weapons, yahoo.com Office: GIPRI, rue de la Voie-Creuse 16, Canada 1202 Geneva, Switzerland, Tel. (**41-22) *Home: 554 Orkney Priv., Ottawa, ON Amb. Mohamed Shaker, Chairman, 919 79 40, Fax: (**41-22) 919 79 43; K2C 3M7, Tel.: (++1-613) 224-8155, Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs E-mail:[email protected] Fax: (++1-613) 563-0017, E-mail: (ECFA), Cairo [email protected] Office: ECFA, 120 Moh’e El-din Abu Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh Elezz Mohandesean, Cairo Tel.: (++20-2) (Germany/South Korea), Senior Dr. Gérard Toulouse, Director of 337-8242, Fax: (++20-2) 760-3552, Researcher, Free University of Berlin, Research (CNRS), Department of E-mail: [email protected] Berlin, Germany Physics, Ecole Normale Supérieure Office: Department of Political Science, (ENS), Paris, France Prof. Erika Simpson, Associate Professor Freie Universität Berlin, Room 117a, *Office: ENS, Dept. of Physics, 24 rue and Visiting Research Fellow, Liu Insti- Ihnestrasse 22, D-14195 Berlin, Lhomond, F-75231 Paris cedex 5, tute, University of British Columbia, Germany, Tel.: (++49-30) 8385-5402, France, Tel.: (++33-1) 44 32 34 87, Fax: B.C., Canada Fax: (++49-30) 8385-5049, E-mail: (++33-1) 43 36 76 66, E-mail: Toulouse@ *Home: 4634 Vantreight Drive, Victoria, [email protected]; [email protected] lpt.ens.fr BC, Canada V8N, Tel.: (++1-250) 383- 3297 Dr. Olga Sukovic, Scientific Adviser, Insti- Dr. Tran Ha Anh, retired (since tute of International Politics and 1/04/2003) from National Assembly of Mr. Alan Slavin, Professor of Physics, Economics, Belgrade, Yugoslavia Vietnam Trent University, Peterborough ON, Office: Institute of International Politics *Institution: National Assembly of Viet- Canada and Economics, Makedonska 25, nam, 35 Ngo Quyen, Ha Noi, Vietnam, *Office: Trent University, Peterborough Belgrade, Yugoslavia, Tel.: (++381-11) Email: [email protected] ON K9J 7B8 , Canada, Tel.: (++1-705) 3221-433, E-mail: [email protected] and 748-1011 (x1289), Fax: (++1-705) 748- [email protected] Mr. Anthony Turton, Head, African 1652,E-mail: [email protected] Water Issues Research Unit (AWIRU), Dr. Tatsujiro Suzuki, Senior Research Mr. Hussein Solomon, Associate, Dept. Center for International Political Studies Scientist, Central Research Institute of of Political Sciences, Univ. of Pretoria, (CIPS), University of Pretoria, Pretoria, Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo; Pretoria, Republic of South Africa South Africa Professor, Keio University Graduate Office: , Department of Political Sciences, *Office: AWIRU, CIPS, Pretoria Univer- School of Media and Governance; Co- University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, sity, Pretoria 0001, South Africa, Tel.: Founder, Peace Pledge, Japan Republic of South Africa, Tel.: (++27 12) (++27-12) 420-4486, Fax: (++27-12) *Office: CRIEPI, 1-6-1, Ohtemachi, 420-4339, Fax: (++27 12) 420 3886, 420-3886, E-mail: [email protected] Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8126, Japan, E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: (++81-3) 3201-6601, Fax: (++81-3) Dr. Vo Hong Anh, Senior Researcher, Prof. Fernando de Souza Barros, Profes- 3287-2805, E-mail: Professor of Theoretical Physics, Vietnam sor Emeritus, Physics Institute, Federal [email protected]; *Office: Vietnam National Atomic University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [email protected] Energy Commission, Tel.: (++84-4) 942- *Office: Physics Institute, UFRJ, Caixa 3479, Fax: (84-4) 942-4133, Email: Prof. M.S. Swaminathan, President, Pug- Postal 68528, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, [email protected] wash Conferences on Science and World Brazil, Tel.: see below, Fax: (++55-21) Affairs, and Member, Pugwash Executive 2562-7368, E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

120 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference

Prof. Radovan Vukadinovic, Director, Prof. Matinuzzaman (Matin) Zuberi, Administration under the President of the Graduate Program in International Rela- retired Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru Uni- Russian Federation, Tel.: (++7-095) 436- tions, Faculty of Political Science, Zagreb, versity (JNU), New Delhi, India 0007; E-mail: [email protected] Croatia *Home: XC-3 Sah Vikas Apartments, 68 Ms. Magdalena Kropiwnicka *Institute: Graduate Program in Interna- I.P. Extension, Patparganj, Delhi 110 (Poland/Italy), MA student in interna- tional Relations, Faculty of Political Sci- 091, India, Tel.: (++91-11) 2242-4963, tional affairs, St. John’s College, Rome ence, Lepusiceva 6, Zagreb, Croatia, Tel.: Fax: (++91-11) 2246 0485, E-mail: Campus, Italy; Consultant UN FAO (as (++385-1) 464-7545, Fax: (++385-1) 465 [email protected] of 7 July 2003), Rome 5316, E-mail: radovanvukadinovic Dr. Bob van der Zwaan, Researcher, Har- *Home: Via Ugo Ojetti 41, 00136 Rome, @hotmail.com vard University, Cambridge, MA, USA; Italy, E-mail: [email protected] Mr. Peter Walker, Coordinator, Peace Researcher, Energy Research Center of (and) [email protected] Operations Summer Institute (POSI), the Netherlands (ECN), Amsterdam, Akira Kurosaki, Research Associate, Wolfville, Nova Scotia, Canada The Netherlands International Peace Research Institute, *Office: POSI, Acadia University, *Office: ECN-Policy Studies, POB 37154, Meiji Gakuin University (PRIME), Wolfville, NS, Tel.: (++1-902) 542-0077, 1030 AD Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Tokyo, Japan E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: (++31-224) 56 4442, Fax: (++31- Office: Meiji Gakuin University, 1-2-37 204) 922 812, E-mail: vanderzwaan@ Prof. Michael D. Wallace, Department of Shirokanedai, Minatoku, Tokyo 108- ecn.nl Political Science, University of British 8636 Japan, Tel.: (++81-3) 5421-5652, Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Fax: (++81-3) 5421-5653, E-mail: *Institution:Department of Political Sci- [email protected] ence, University of British Columbia, STUDENT/YOUNG PARTICIPANTS Ms. Karolin Lundström, PhD student in C472-1866 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Ms. Sarahh Bokhari (Pakistan), Journal- sociology, University of Uppsala, Upp- Canada V6T 1Z1, Tel.: (++1-604) 822- ist and free-lance Research Scholar, sala, Sweden 4550, Fax: (++1-604) 822-5540, E-mail: Imprint, Toronto, Canada *Institution: Department of Sociology, [email protected] *Home: 22 Earlton Road, Scarborough, Thunbergsvägen 3, Box 821, 751 08 Prof. Mel Watkins, Professor Emeritus of M1T 2Rs, Canada, Tel.: (++1-416) 609 Uppsala, Sweden, Tel.: (++46-18) 471 11 Economics and Political Science, Univer- 9330, E-mail: [email protected] 84, Fax: (++46-18) 471 11 70, E-mail: sity of Toronto, Canada Mr. Hugo Daniel Estrella, Deputy Gen- [email protected] (and) *Home: 186 Baillie Ave., Woodlawn, eral Co-ordinator, Human Rights Pro- [email protected] ON, Canada K0A 3M0, Tel.: (++1-613) grams, Córdoba State Government, Mr. William Marshall, PhD Student, 832-9349, E-mail: melvillewatkins Códoba, Argentina Department of Physics, University of @yahoo.ca Institution: Centro de Asistencia a la Vic- Oxford, UK Dr. Christopher Watson, Senior Consul- tima del Delito, Pje. Santa Catalina 66, Office: Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Oxford, tant; Emeritus Fellow, Merton College, Córdoba, Argentina, Tel.: (++54-351) Clarendon Lab, Parks Road, Oxford Oxford, UK 434-1500, (++54-351) 434- 1501, e-mail: OX1 3PU, UK, Tel.: (++44-7968) *Home/Office: 15 Hurst Rise Road, [email protected]ù; 122770, Fax: (++44-1865) 272400, Oxford OX2 9HE, UK, Tel.: (++44-1865) [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] 420661, Fax: (++44-1865) 420661, Ms. Sonika Gupta, Research Officer and Ms. Irna van der Molen, MA Public E-mail: [email protected] PhD Candidate in Chinese Studies, Cen- Administration with a specialization in Ms. Zhang Jia, Officer of American Pro- ter for East Asian Studies, SIS, J. Nehru International Relations, PhD in Irrigation grams, China Reform Forum, Beijing, University, New Delhi, India, E-mail: Management in Sri Lanka; Lecturer, China [email protected] Technology and Development Group, *Office: China Reform Forum, No. 35, Mr. Julian Hamfjord (Norway), Student, University of Twente, The Netherlands Baofang Hutong, Dongcheng District, Dept. of Medicine, University of London, E-mail: [email protected] Beijing, China, Tel.: (++86-10) 6523- King’s College, UK Mr. Miquel Munoz (Spain), Student, 3432-808, Fax: (++86-10) 6512-8410, *Home: Skaaneveien 9, 3180 Nykirke, Energy and Environmental Studies, E-mail: [email protected] Norway, Tel.: (++47-330) 21844, E-mail: Boston University, Cambridge, MA, and Dr. Aharon Zohar, Consultant, Regional [email protected], Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, and Environmental Planning, Carmei- [email protected] Spain Yosef, Israel Ms. Elena Krivosheina, PhD Student, *Home: 4 William Street, Cambridge, *Office: Tel.: (++972-8) 928-7157, Fax: Russian Academy of Public Administra- MA 02139, USA, E-mail: [email protected] (++972-8) 928-6087, E-mail: tion under the President of the Russian [email protected] Federation Institution: Russian Academy of Public

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 121 53rd Pugwash Conference

Mr. Nagappan Parasuraman (India), PhD *Office: Boston University, Dept. of *Institution: University of Victoria, Student in Sociology (MS from Geography, 675 Commonwealth Ave., SEOS, Ian Stewart Complex, P.O. Box Annamalai University), Swaminathan Boston, MA 02215, USA, Tel.: (++1-617) 3055, Victoria, BC, V8W 3P6, Canada, Research Foundation/Madras University, 783-3046, E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: (++1-250) 472-4003, Fax: (++1-250) E-mail: [email protected] 472-4004, E-mail: [email protected] Mr. George T. Whitesides, Project Mr. Juan Pablo Pardo-Guerra, Director, Permission to Dream Institu- Dr. Katrina Hurley, Emergency Medicine Undergraduate Student in Physics, Uni- tion, Venice, CA, USA Resident and Secretary-Treasurer, Physi- versidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, *Office: Permission to Dream Institu- cians for Global Survival (Canada), Hali- Mexico City, Mexico tion, 254 Horizon Ave., Venice, CA fax, Nova Scotia, Canada Institution: Facultad de Ciencias, Univer- 90291, Tel.: (++1-626) 833-5869, Fax: *Institution: Department of Emergency sidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, (++1-413) 604-0142, E-mail: Medicine, Dalhousie University, 351 Mexico City, Mexico, E-mail: [email protected] Bethune, VG Site, QEII Health Sciences [email protected]; Centre, 1278 Tower Road, Halifax, NS, [email protected] Canada B3H 2Y9, , Tel.: (++1-902) 494- 3199, Fax: (++1-902) 473-3617, E-mail: Ms. Joelien Pretorius (South Africa), PhD CANADIAN STUDENT/ YOUNG PARTICIPANTS [email protected] student, Centre for International Studies, Cambridge University, UK Ms. Jessy Cowan, 4th-year Student in Mr. Blair MacPherson, graduate of Aca- *Office: Centre for International Studies, Math and Physics, Queen’s University, dia University, incumbent Law student, Cambridge University, Fitzwilliam Kingston, Ontario, Canada Ontario, Canada House, 32 Trumpington Street, *Home: 89 Princess Street, apt. 204, *Home: 158 Heathwood Hts. Dr., Cambridge CB2 1QY, UK, Tel.: (++44- Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3E4, Aurora, Ontario, Canada L4G 4V9, 1223) 7413-11/12, Fax: (+44-1223) Tel.: (++1-613) 548-3643, Fax: (++1-613) E-mail: [email protected] 7413-13, E-mail: [email protected] 924-1814, E-mail: [email protected] Ms. Joann Macrae, Dalhousie University, (and) [email protected] Mr. Moritz Riede, PhD Student in Solar Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada Cell Research, Fraunhofer Institute for Ms. Christie Dennison (Canada), *Home: 1275 Hollis St., Apt # 2, Halifax Solar Energy Systems, Freiburg, Germany student/MA candidate in conflict resolu- NS B3J 1T7, Canada, Tel.: (++1-902) *Office: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar tion, Dept. of Peace Studies, University of 422-4592, E-mail: [email protected] Energy Systems, Heidenhofstr. 2, Bradford, West Yorkshire, UK Mr. Alex Mazer, Student in Political The- Freiburg, Germany, Tel.: (++49-173) 464- Institution: University of Bradford, Rich- ory, University of Toronto, Ontario, 2787, Fax: (++49-821) 486-3380, E-mail: mond Road, Bradford, West Yorkshire Canada [email protected]; BD7 1DP, UK, Tel.: (++44-1274) 236994, *Home: 276 Clinton St., Toronto ON [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] M6G 2Y6, Canada, E-mail: Ms. Gina van Schalkwyk, Researcher, Mr. Brandon Gallant, undergraduate stu- [email protected] South African Institute of International dent in international politics and the evo- Mr. David Sandomierski 74 Gypsy Rose- Affairs (SAIIA), Univ. of the Witwater- lution of world order, University of way, Willowdale ON M2N 5Y9, Canada, srand, Braamfontein, Johannesburg, Waterloo and Group of 78, Ontario, E-mail: [email protected] South Africa Canada *Office: South African Institute of Inter- Institution: University of Waterloo, 200 national Affairs, Jan Smuts House, Univ. University Ave., W. Waterloo, Ontario, of the Witwatersrand, Braamfontein, Canada N2L 3G1, Tel.: (++1-519) 888- Johannesburg, South Africa. Tel.: (++27- 4567; E-mail: [email protected] 11) 339-2021, Fax: (++27-11) 339-2154, Ms. Moira Goodfellow, Intern, Pearson E-mail: [email protected]; Peacekeeping Centre, Cornwallis Park, [email protected] Clementsport, NS, Canada Mr. Robert Schingler, Researcher, NASA *Office: PO Box 100, Clementsport, Ames, E-mail: [email protected] Nova Scotia, Canada, B0S 1E0, Tel.: (++1-902) 638-8611 (x135), Fax: ++1- Mr. Sebastian Straube, 3rd-year Student (902) 638-3310, E-mail: in Physiology, St. Peter’s College, Univer- [email protected]; sity of Oxford, E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] Hannah Hickey, graduate student in cli- Mr. Pablo Suarez (Argentina), PhD Stu- mate modeling, University of Victoria, dent in Geography (climate change, deci- School of Earth and Ocean Sciences sion-making, environmental justice) and (SEOS), Victoria, BC, Canada Research Assistant, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts

122 Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 Pugwash Council for the 2002–2007 Quinquennium

Amb. (ret.) Ochieng Adala, of the Africa Association for International Understand- cil of Space Science and Technology; Al- Peace Forum (APFO) in Nairobi, Kenya, ing; CPAPD, PO Box 188, 15 Wanshou Ahram Center for Political and Strategic is former Permanent Representative of Rd., Beijing, China 100036, Tel.: (++86- Studies, Al-Galaa St., Cairo, Egypt, Tel.: Kenya to the United Nations in New 10) 6827-1736 or 6821-4433 (ext. (++20-2) 770-5630, Fax: (++20-2) 578- York, former Deputy Secretary/Director 8586), Fax: (++86-10) 6827-3675, 6037, E-mail: [email protected] for Political Affairs, Ministry of Foreign E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Martin Kaplan, an American living in Affairs and International Cooperation, Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino is Professor Switzerland, is a former director of and former Ambassador of Kenya to the of Mathematical Physics at the University research at the World Health Organiza- Arab Republic of Egypt, the Kingdom of of Milan in Italy, Secretary General of the tion and former Secretary-General of Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia; APFO, Union of Italian Scientists for Disarma- Pugwash (1976-88); Pugwash Geneva P.O. Box 76621, Tel.: (++254-2) ment (USPID), and Director of the Pro- Office, The WMO/OMM Building, 7 bis 574092/6, Fax: (++254-2) 561357, gram on Disarmament and International Avenue de la Paix, CH-1202 Geneva, E-mail: [email protected] Security, Landau Network—Centro Switzerland, Tel. (++41-22) 730-8620, Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell is Executive Director Volta, Como; Department of Physics, Fax: (++41-22) 730-8625, E-mail: of Pugwash Conferences on Science and University of Milan, Via Celoria 16, [email protected] World Affairs, former Associate Execu- 20133 Milan, Italy, Tel.: (**39-02) 5031 Prof. Saideh Lotfian is Associate Profes- tive Officer at the American Academy of 7277, Fax: (**39-02) 5031 7480, E-mail: sor of Political Science at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences in Cambridge, and for- [email protected] Law and Political Science at the Univer- mer Staff Aide at the National Security Dr. Lynn Eden is Senior Research Scholar sity of Tehran, Deputy Director of the Council in Washington, DC; Pugwash at the Center for International Security Center for Middle East Strategic Studies Conferences, Tel.: (++1-202) 478-3440, and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford in Tehran, and Director of the Middle Email: [email protected] University in California, and co-chair of East Program at the Center for Strategic Prof. Francesco Calogero is professor of the US Pugwash Committee; CISAC, Research; Faculty of Law & Political theoretical physics at the University of Encina Hall, 2nd floor, Stanford Univer- Science, University of Tehran, Enghelab Rome “La Sapienza”, Chair of the Pug- sity, Stanford, California 94305-6165, Ave., Tehran, Iran, Tel.: (++98-21) 611- wash Council, former Secretary-General Tel. : (++1-650) 725 5369, Fax : (++1- 2546, Fax: (++98-21) 896-9565, E-mail: of Pugwash (1989-1997), and a former 650) 724 5683, E-mail: lynneden@ [email protected] member of the Governing Board of SIPRI stanford.edu Ambassador Miguel Marin-Bosch is a (1982-1992); Pugwash Conferences, via Dr. Karen Hallberg, a physicist, is cur- professor at the Universidad Iberoameri- della Lungara 10, I-00165 Roma, Italy, rently Research Fellow at the National cana in Mexico, and a former Deputy Tel. (++39-06) 687-2606, Fax: (++39-06) Council of Science and Technology, and Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the 687-8376, E-mail: francesco.calogero@ Professor at the Balseiro Institute, in Bar- Conference on Disarmament for the gov- uniroma1.it (and) francesco.calogero@ iloche, Argentina, as well as a Member of ernment of Mexico; Universidad roma1.infn.it (please use BOTH) the Board of the Argentine Physics Asso- Iberoamericana, Paseo de la Reforma Col. (ret.) Pierre Canonne is a Lecturer in ciation; Centro Atomico Bariloche, 8400 880, Lomas de Santa Fe, Mexico, DF Disarmament and Arms Control issues at Bariloche, Argentina, Tel.: (++54-2944) 01210, Mexico; Tel. (++59-507.678), the Univ. Marne-la-Vallés/Paris, former 445170, Fax: (++54-2944) 445299, E-mail: [email protected] Head of TDB at the Organization for the E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Anne McLaren is Principal Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy is Professor of Research Associate at Wellcome Hague, former Staff in the Strategic Nuclear Physics at Quaid-e-Azam Univer- Trust/Cancer Research UK, Institute of Affairs Department of the Ministry of sity in Islamabad, Chairman of Mashal Cell and Developmental Biology; a Mem- Defense, and former Negotiator, Chemi- Books, an independent maker of docu- ber of the British Pugwash Group; Mem- cal Weapons Convention; 29 Avenue mentary films for popularising science in ber of the European Commission’s Life Danton, 43300 Langeac, France, Pakistan, and an activist for peace and Sciences Group and European Group on Tel./Fax: (++33-4) 71 77 24 57, E-mail: social reform; E-mail: hoodbhoy@ Ethics; and former Foreign Secretary of [email protected] pierre.mit.edu the Royal Society; Tel.: (++44-1223) 334 Mr. Chen Jifeng is Convener of the Pug- 088, E-mail: [email protected] Gen. (ret.) Dr. Mohamed Kadry Said is wash Group of China, Vice President of Head of the Military Studies Unit and Dr. Steven Miller is director of the Inter- the China Arms Control and Disarma- Technology Advisor at the Al-Ahram national Security Program of the Belfer ment Association, and Executive Vice Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Center for Science and International President of the China Association for Al-Ahram Foundation in Cairo, Egypt; Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy Promotion of International Science and Professor of Missile Mechanics of Flight School of Government, editor-in-chief of Peace. He was formerly Secretary General at the Military Technical College (MTC) the quarterly International Security, and of the Chinese People’s Association for in Cairo; Member of the Committee of co-chair of the US Pugwash Committee. Peace and Disarmament (CPAPD) in Bei- Strategic Planning of the Egyptian Coun- Formerly, he was a senior research fellow jing, and Council Member of the Chinese

Pugwash Newsletter, December 2003 123 at the Stockholm International Peace Gen. Pan Zhenqiang is Professor at the Higher Education & Technology, Presi- Research Institute (SIPRI), and taught Institute of Strategic Studies at the dent of Croatian Pugwash, a Member of defense and arms control studies in the National Defense University, PLA, China, the Club of Rome, a Fellow of the World political science department at the Massa- a retired Major General in the Chinese Academy and Academia Europea, former chusetts Institute of Technology; CSIA, People’s Army, and former Director of the Professor of Physics at Rudjer Boskovic J.F.Kennedy School of Government, Har- Institute of Strategic Studies; Institute of Institute, and former Foreign Secretary of vard University, 79 JFK Street, Strategic Studies, National Defense Uni- the Croatian Academy of Sciences & Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, Tel. versity, PLA, China, Tel/Fax: (++86-10) Arts; Rudjer Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka (++1-617) 495-1411, Fax: (++1-617) 8283-1159, E-mail: [email protected] 54, P.O. Box 1016, 10000 Zagreb, Croa- 495-8963, E-mail: steven_miller@ tia, Tel.:(++385-1) 46 80 202, Fax: Senator Douglas Roche, O.C., is a mem- Harvard.Edu (++385-1) 46 80 239, E-mail: slaus@ ber of The Senate of Canada; former Vis- rudjer.irb.hr Prof. Marie Muller is Dean of the Faculty iting Professor at the University of of Humanities, and Director of the Cen- Alberta in Edmonton; Chairman of the Prof. Fernando de Souza Barros is Profes- tre for International Political Studies, at Canadian Pugwash Group; Chairman of sor Emeritus at the Physics Institute of the the University of Pretoria. She is also a the Middle Powers Initiative; and former Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Council Member of the Academy of Sci- Canadian Ambassador for Disarmament; Brazil; Physics Institute, UFRJ, Tel. : ence of South Africa, and Chair of the University of Alberta, Edmonton, (++55-21) 2562-7337, Fax : (++55-21) Pugwash South Africa Group; University Alberta, Canada, Tel.: (++1-780) 466- 2562-7368, E-mail : [email protected] of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, Republic of 8072, Fax (++1-780) 469-4732, E-mail: Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh, a South South Africa, Tel.: (++27-12) 420-2318, [email protected] (or) [email protected]. Korean political scientist, is a senior Fax: (++27-12) 420 4501, E-mail: gc.ca researcher in the Department of Political [email protected] Prof. Sir Joseph Rotblat is emeritus pro- Science at the Free University of Berlin in Dr. Götz Neuneck is a physicist working fessor of physics at the University of Lon- Germany and President of the Korean on international security issues. He is cur- don, emeritus President of Pugwash, and Pugwash Group. He was formerly the rently Senior Fellow at the Institute for a recipient of the 1995 Nobel Peace Prize; director of the Korean International Peace Research and Security Policy 8 Asmara Road, London NW2 3ST, UK, Peace Research Institute (KIPRI)in Seoul, (IFSH) in Hamburg; Member of the Tel. (++44-20) 7405-6661, Fax: (++44- and a member of the Advisory Council Council of the German Physical Society 20) 7831-5651, E-mail: pugwash@ on Peaceful and Democratic Unification (DPG), and Deputy Chairman of the mac.com (*) of Korea; Schlieperstr. 12, D-13507 Working Group “Physics and Disarma- Berlin, Germany, Tel.: (++49-30) 433- Acad. Yuri Ryzhov is President of the ment” in the DPG; IFSH, Falkenstein 1, 8574, Fax: (++49-30) 433-2896, E-mail: International Engineering University in D-22587 Hamburg, Germany, Tel.: [email protected] Moscow; Chair of the Russian Pugwash (++49-40) 866077-21, Fax: (++49-40) Group; Academician of the Russian Prof. M.S. Swaminathan, a renowned 866-3615, E-mail: neuneck@public. Academy of Sciences; former Member of agriculture scientist. Considered the sci- uni-hamburg.de the Presidential Council of the Russian entific leader of the Green Revolution, his Dr. Alexander Nikitin is Director of the Federation; and former Ambassador approach in pioneering “ever-green revo- Center for Political and International Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of lution” is at the heart of what is now Studies (CPIS); Vice Chairman of the Russia to France; 6 Leninsky pr., called sustainable agriculture. He is a past Russian Pugwash Committee of Scientists Moscow, Russia, Tel.: ++7-095) 236- recipient of the World Food Prize, the for Disarmament and International Secu- 5066 / 9761, Fax: (++7-095) 236-1469, Honda Award, the Ramon Magsaysay rity; Professor at Moscow State Institute E-mail: [email protected] Award, the UNESCO Gandhi Prize, and for International Relations; First Vice- the Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disar- Air Commodore Jasjit Singh, AVSM, President of the Russian Political Science mament and Development. He chaired VrC, VM, a former veteran fighter pilot Association; and Board Member of the the International Commission on Peace and Director of Operations of the Indian Russian Academy of Political Sciences; and Food, and is UNESCO Chair in Air Force, is currently Director of the CPIS, Prospect Mira 36, Moscow, Russ- Ecotechnology, and Chairman of the MS Centre for Strategic and International ian Federation 129010, Tel. (++7-095) Swaminathan Research Foundation in Studies; he was Director of the Institute 280-3441, Fax: (++7-095) 280-0245, Chennai, India; MS Swaminathan for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) E-mail: [email protected] Research Foundation, 3rd Cross Street, in New Delhi (1987-2001); he has pub- Taramani Institutional Area, Chennai- Prof. Hitoshi Ohnishi is Professor of lished extensively on strategic and secu- 600 113, India, Tel.: (++91-44) 254 2790 International Relations and Deputy rity issues; 18/803, Heritage City, / 1698, Fax: (++91-44) 254 1319, E-mail: President at Tohoku University in Sendai, Mehrauli Road, Gurgaon-122002, India, [email protected] Japan; former President of the Peace Tel.: (++91-124) 891-7701, E-mail: Studies Association of Japan; and former [email protected] (or) csis_India@ Council Member of the Japanese Political yahoo.co.in Science Association; School of Law, Prof. Ivo Slaus, a Member of the Croat- Tohoku University, Kawauchi, Aoba-ku, ian Parliament, is Chairman of the Parlia- Sendai 980-8576, Japan, E-mail: mentary Subcommittee on Science, [email protected] Calendar of Future Pugwash Meetings

6-9 February 2004 South African Pugwash Group: Planning meeting on proposed Cape Town, South Africa project, Threats without Enemies: Health Issues of the 21st Century (with support of International Pugwash)

20-22 February 2004 Indian Pugwash Society Meeting on South Asian Security: New Delhi, India The Role of Confidence-building Measures (with the support of International Pugwash)

4-7 March 2004 Pugwash Meeting no. 291: 11th Pugwash Workshop on the Middle East: Amman, Jordan Prospects for the Peace Process

1-4 April 2004 Pugwash Meeting no. 292: 2nd Pugwash Workshop on The Impact of Havana, Cuba Agricultural Biotechnology on Environmental and Food Security

13-16 April 2004 Pugwash Meeting no. 293: 3rd Pugwash Workshop on East Asian Security: Beijing, China From Confrontation to Dialogue: Prospect of a New Security Framework in North East Asia

22-24 April 2004 Conference on Ensuring Security in Space: Enhancing Stakeholder Washington, DC Cooperation (jointly organized by the Center For Defense Information, The Monterey Institute of International Studies, and the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs)

1-2 May 2004 Pugwash Meeting no. 294: 21st Workshop of the Pugwash Study Group Oegstgeest, Netherlands on the Implementation of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Conventions

2-4 July 2004 Pugwash workshop on Elimination of Fissile Materials Moscow, Russia and Cuts in Nuclear Arsenals

17-19 September 2004 2nd Pugwash workshop on Science, Ethics and Society Ajaccio, Corsica, France

4-9 October 2004 54th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs: Bridging a Seoul, South Korea Divided World Through International Cooperation and Disarmament

27-31 July 2005 55th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs Hiroshima, Japan Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs

President Professor M.S. Swaminathan Secretary-General Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Executive Director Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell

Pugwash Council Chair Professor Marie Muller

Members Ambassador Ochieng Adala Professor Anne McLaren Professor Fernando de Souza Barros Dr. Steven Miller Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell Dr. Götz Neuneck Professor Francesco Calogero Dr. Alexander Nikitin Dr. Pierre Canonne Professor Hitoshi Ohnishi Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Maj. Gen. (ret.) Pan Zhenqiang Dr. Lynn Eden Senator Douglas Roche Professor Karen Hallberg Professor Joseph Rotblat Professor Pervez Hoodbhoy Academician Yuri Ryzhov Mr. Chen Jifeng Air Commodore Jasjit Singh Maj. Gen. Mohamed Kadry Said Professor Ivo Slaus Dr. Martin M. Kaplan Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh Prof. Saideh Lotfian Professor M.S. Swaminathan Amb. Miguel Marin-Bosch

Pugwash Executive Committee Chairman Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Members Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell Professor M.S. Swaminathan Prof. Saideh Lotfian Maj. Gen. (ret.) Pan Zhenqiang Professor Marie Muller

Rome Office Washington, DC Office Geneva Office London Office Accademia Nazionale de Lincei 11 Dupont Circle, NW 16 rue de la Voie-Creuse Flat A Museum Mansions via della Lungara, 10 Suite 900 1211 Geneva, Switzerland 63A Great Russell Street 1-00165 Rome, Italy Washington, DC 20036 Phone: **41-22-919-7920 London WC1B 3BJ, England Phone: **39-06-6872606 Phone: **1-202-478-3440 Fax: **41-22-919-7925 Phone: **44-20-7405-6661 Fax: **39-06-6878376 Fax: **1-202-238-9604 E-mail: [email protected] Fax: **44-20-7831-5651 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

For biodata and addresses, see page 123.