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Flygplatserna – Förändring Sedan 1980

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Flygplatserna – Förändring Sedan 1980 Transportstyrelsens Flygplatsdagar 12 mars 2018 Jean-Marie Skoglund Disposition . Luftfartens utveckling globalt . Prognos . Flygplats . Internationellt . Regionalt . Nationellt. Flygmarknaden . Marknadsandelar . Luffartspolitik - 2018 . Luftfartsavtal - Brexit 2 Internationell trafikutveckling 1945-2018 5 000 000 1950-1960: Passagerarökning med 242 % 2018 1960-1970: Passagerarökning med 261,3 % 6,1 % 4 500 000 1970-1980: Passagerarökning med 95,4% 1980-1990: Passagerarökning med 55,7 % 4 000 000 1990-2000: Passagerarökning med 43,7 % 2000-2010: Passagerarökning med 53,1 % 3 500 000 2010-2018: Passagerarökning med 67,8 % 3 000 000 1960-taletJetflygplan 2008: Finanskrisen 2 500 000 2 000 000 1990 Ekonomiska krisen 1 500 000 2001: 11 september 2002: Irakinvasionen 1997 1 000 000 1979: 2:a Oljekrisen Tredje slutliga 1945 fasen av avregleringen 9 miljoner passagerare 500 000 inom EU 1978: Avregleringen i USA 1973: 1:a Oljekrisen 0 1945 1 947 1 949 1 951 1 953 1 955 1 957 1 959 1 961 1 963 1 965 1 967 1 969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 3 1000 000 2000 000 3000 000 4000 000 5000 000 6000 000 7000 000 8000 000 Prognos internationell trafik trafik internationell Prognos 0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2018 2021 : 4,3miljarder 2024 2037: 8,2 2037: 4 2027 2030 2033 miljarder Asien kommer dominera flygmarknaden kommer Asien dominera flygmarknaden 2037. till 2037 till Högre BNP per capita – fler resor per capita 5 Förutsättningar för luftfartens utveckling Flygplats Världens 10 största flygplatserna – förändring sedan 1980 Flygplats (IATA kod) Ranking Ranking Ranking Ranking Ranking Ranking 2018 2017 2010 2000 1990 1980 Atlanta 1 1 1 1 6 107,394,029 103,902,992 89,200,000 80,162,00 40,015,00 40,180,000 Peking 2 2 2 100,983,000 95,786,492 73,900,000 26,000,000 8,500,000 3,500,000 Dubai 3 3 12 89,149,099 88,242,099 47,200,000 12,000,000 5,000,000 2,800,000 Los Angeles 4 5 6 3 2 87,534,384 84,558,776 59,100,000 66,425,000 45,810,000 33,038,000 Tokyo-Haneda 5 4 5 6 5 87,098,683 85,301,000 64,100,000 56,402,000 40,188,00 20,870,000 Chicago O’Hare 6 6 3 2 3 76,791,160 (jan- 79,828,183 67,000,000 72,144,244 44,425,00 43,600,000 nov) London-Heathrow 8 7 4 4 4 80,102,017 78.014,598 65,700,000 64,607,000 42,647,00 27,472,000 Hong Kong Chek LapKok 8 8 11 22 74,688,000 72,664,075 50,945,000 32,752,000 18,688,000 6,829,000 Shanghai Pudong 9 9 20 44 (2004) 71 74,050,000 70,001,237 40,578,600 21,1 10,9 (1995) Paris Charles de Gaulle 10 10 87 8 72,229,723 69,471,422 58,200,000 48,246,000 22,506,000 10,091,000 Gapet minskar mellan världens två största flygplatser 2018 6,4 m m 9 Förändring sedan 2000 bland de 30 största flygplatserna. Ranking Nordamerika Europa Asien-Stillahavsregionen Mellanöstern Ranking 2000 (1) Atlanta 80,1 (16) Detroit 35,5 (4) London (LHR) 64,6 (6) Tokyo (HND 56,4 Nordamerika 19 (2) Chicago 72,1 (17) Houston 35,2 (7) Frankfurt 49,3 (14) Seoul 36,7 Europa 6 (3) Los Angeles 66,4 (18) Newark 34,1 (8) Paris (CDG) 48,2 (22) Hong Kong 32,7 Asien-Stillahavs. 5 (5) Dallas 60,8 (19) Miami 33,6 (10) Amsterdam 39,6 (26) Bangkok 29,6 (9) San Francisco 41 (21) NY JFK 32,8 (20) Madrid 32,8 (28) Singapore 28,6 (11) Denver 38,7 (23) Orlando 30,8 (23) London (LGW) 32 (12) Las Vegas 36,8 (25) St Louis 30,5 (13) Minneapolis/St P (27) Toronto 28,9 36,7 (29) Seattle 28,4 (15) Phoenix 36 (30) Boston 27,4 Ranking 2010 (1) Atlanta 80,1 (22) Las Vegas 39,7 (4) London LHR 65,8 (2) Peking 73,9 (18) Singapore 42 (12) Dubai 47,1 Nordamerika 13 (3) Chicago 66,7 (23) San Francisco 39,2 (7) Paris (CDG) 58,1 (5) Tokyo (HND) 64,2 (19) Guangzhou 40,9 Europa 7 (6) Los Angeles 66,4 (24) Phoenix 38,5 (9) Frankfurt 53 (11) Hong Kong 50,3 (20) Shanghai 40,5 Asien-Stillahavs. 9 Mellanöstern 1 (8) Dallas 56,9 (25) Charlotte 38,2 (12) Madrid 49,8 (16) Jakarta 44,3 (27) Sydney 35,9 (10) Denver 52,2 (28) Miami 35,6 (15) Amsterdam 45,2 (17) Bangkok 42,7 (14) NY JFK 46,5 (29) Orlando 34,8 (26) Rom (FCO) 36,2 (21) Houston 40,4 (30) München 34,7 Ranking 2018 (1) Atlanta 107,3 (25) San Francisco 57,7 (7) London (LHR) 80,1 (2) Peking 100,9 (18) Jakarta 68 (3) Dubai 89,1 Nordamerika: 9 (4) Los Angeles 87,5 (29 Seattle (SEA) 49,8 (10) Paris (CDG) 72,2 (5) Tokyo (HND) 87 (19) Singapore 65,6 Europa: 7 (6) Chicago (ORD) 76,7 (30) Las Vegas 49,7 (11) Amsterdam 71 (8) Hong Kong 74,6 (21) Bangkok 63,3 Asien-Stillahavs: 13 Mellanöstern: 1 (jan-nov) (14) Frankfurt 69,5 (9) Shanghai 74 (23) Kuala Lumpur (15) Dallas 69,1 (17) Istanbul (IST) 67,9 (12) Delhi (DEL) 69,8 59,9 (20) Denver 64,5 (24) Madrid 57,8 (13) Guangzhou 69,7 (26) Chengdu 52,9 (22) NY JFK 61,9 (27 Barcelona 50,1 (16) Seoul 68,2 (28) Bombay 49,8 KEF HEL OSL ARN CPH IST FRA DFW 2018 - CDG LHR CGK ORD ATL HKG JFK LAS 2017/2018 PEK BKK 11 HND 2016/2017 SIN SFO DXB 2015/2016 KUL MAD DEN LAX SEA CAN PVG CTU AMS BOM BCN ICN DEL 0 5 -5 Procentuella förändringar 2016 förändringar Procentuella 10 15 25 20 35 30 40 45 Passagerarstatistik på de nordiska huvudflygplatserna 2018 Flygplats 2018 (milj) 2017 Förändring % Typ av trafik Köpenhamn/Kastrup 30,2 3,8% Inrikes: 1,5 milj. -1,5% Europatrafiken: 25 milj.,1 +3,2% Interkontinental: 3,6 milj. +11% Oslo-Gardemoen 28,5 3,8% Inrikes: 12 milj. +3,3 % (TRF 2 milj. +5,9) (30,5) Utrikes: 16,5 milj. 4,2 % Stockholm-Arlanda Inrikes: 5,2 milj, -3,4 % (BMA 2,5 milj -1,4%) 26,8 0,8 % Europa 18,9 milj. +1% (NYO 2,2 milj. 3,9%) (31,6) Övrigt 2,5 milj. +8,4% (VST 1120 000 -6,7%) Helsingfors-Vanda 20,8 10,4% Inrikes: 2,9 milj. +8,2% Utrikes: 17,8 milj. +10,7% Keflavíks flygplats 9,8 (Reykjavík Airport 400 000 -6%) (10,2) 12% Ökad turism och LCC-trafik på UK och US 12 Utveckling på de nordiska flygplatserna 2000- 2018. Antal pax 2000 - 2018 Passagerarutveckling 2000 - 2018 35 000 000 Index: 2000 = 100 800 30 000 000 700 25 000 000 600 500 20 000 000 400 15 000 000 300 200 10 000 000 100 5 000 000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 CPH OSL ARN HEL KEF CPH OSL ARN HEL KEF 13 De nordiska huvudflygplatserna rustar för framtiden 14 Prognos för de nordiska huvud- flygplatserna Flygplats Prognos för 2040 Procenttal förändring Bankapacitet 2018-240 2040 Kastrup 40 milj. 32,5 % 3 till 2 Oslo-Gardermoen 44 milj. 54,4,4% 2 till 3 Stockholm-Arlanda 40 milj. 49,3 3 till 4 Helsingfors 30 milj. (2035) 58,7% (2035) 3 Reykjavik-Keflavik 14 milj. 42,9% 2 till 3 15 Flygmarknaden Passagerarutvecklingen i Sverige 1970-2018 35 000 000 2018: 31,6 milj 30 000 000 +2,4, 728 800 pax. 2017: +7,9%, 2,3 milj pax Finanskrisen 2008/09 25 000 000 Lågkostnadsbolagen kommer in i Sverige 1997 20 000 000 Totalt 2018: 39,3 milj Sverige medlem i EU 1995 +1,2 %, 468 800 pax 2017: +6,8%, 2,5 milj pax 15 000 000 Kuwaitkriget 1990- Koncentration av inrikesflyget till Arlanda 1983 Terrorattacken 2001 10 000 000 Införande av folkflyget 1978 2018: 7,6 milj. -3,3%, 260 000 pax 5 000 000 2017: +2,7%, 208 200 pax Införande av resemoms 1991 Avreglering av 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Inrikes Utrikes 17 Förändring av den svenska flygmarknaden 1970-1990 1990-2018 Monopolsituation Avreglering Reglerad verksamhet Nya aktörer SAS: 1991 58% SAS: 2005 54,5% Highland Air Malmö Aviation: 2005 LIN: 1991 38% 12.4 % Airborn Övriga: 1991 4% Skyways: 2005 10,9 % Flying Enterprise, Nordic Airlink 2005: 9,5 % 2018- 97,4% Inrikes pax Förändring 2013 - 2018 -100,0% -80,0% -60,0% -40,0% -20,0% 0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% SKELLEFTEÅ VISBY KALMAR HALMSTAD LULEÅ TROLLHÄTTAN/VÄNERSBORG STOCKHOLM/ARLANDA SVEG UMEÅ SUNDSVALL TIMRÅ MALMÖ KRISTIANSTAD KARLSTAD ARVIDSJAUR JÖNKÖPING GÄLLIVARE ÖREBRO 19 Utrikes pax Förändring 2013 - 2018 -100,0% -50,0% 0,0% 50,0% 100,0% 150,0% PAJALA VÄXJÖ/KRONOBERG GÖTEBORG/LANDVETTER ARVIDSJAUR STOCKHOLM/ARLANDA JÖNKÖPING ÅRE ÖSTERSUND LINKÖPING STOCKHOLM/BROMMA HALMSTAD UMEÅ BORLÄNGE NORRKÖPING/KUNGSÄNGEN SUNDSVALL TIMRÅ MALMÖ STOCKHOLM/SKAVSTA LULEÅ ÖRNSKÖLDSVIK ÖREBRO KALMAR VISBY SKELLEFTEÅ KARLSTAD STOCKHOLM/VÄSTERÅS KRISTIANSTAD TROLLHÄTTAN/VÄNERSBORG KIRUNA ÄNGELHOLM 20 Typer av passagerarflygplan på inrikes och utrikes 2008 vs 2018.
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