ATTACHMENT 4A Transit Operations Quarterly Report For the Period July 1, 2018 – September 30, 2018 (Q1 of FY19) Page 1 of 46 Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... 3 Key Performance Indicators ............................................................................................ 6 Ridership ....................................................................................................................... 14 Farebox Recovery ......................................................................................................... 21 On-Time Performance ................................................................................................... 22 NCTD Customer Feedback ........................................................................................... 23 Paratransit and Fixed-Route Wheelchair Usage ............................................................ 32 Fare Collection System ................................................................................................. 36 Appendix A: BREEZE Descriptions and Service Statistics ............................................ 37 Appendix B: BREEZE Composite Rankings by Day Type ............................................. 40 Appendix C: October Service Change Ridership Trends .............................................. 44 Appendix D: COASTER & SPRINTER Quarterly Performance ..................................... 46 Page 2 of 46 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NCTD produces the Transit Operations Quarterly Report (TOPR) to provide information regarding operational performance. The data contained in this report for Quarter 1 Fiscal Year 2019 (Q1 FY19) is unaudited and subject to change. Final and audited financial and performance results will be provided as part of NCTD’s Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. The following executive summary provides an overview of key performance trends compared to the previous fiscal year. Q1 includes the months of July, August, and September. In October 2017, Q2 of FY18, NCTD conducted its first major service change in recent years with the elimination of six BREEZE routes and modification of other routes. NCTD reduced average weekday revenue miles by nearly 8% and average weekday revenue hours by over 6% while only seeing a decrease in total BREEZE ridership of 2% from FY18 Q1 to FY19 Q1. The FY19 Q1 TOPR is the final quarterly TOPR where this major service change may have had a significant impact. Appendix C includes a summary of these key changes. The following provides an overview of key performance indicators compared to FY18: Ridership and Productivity Compared to Q1 FY18, ridership and productivity in Q1 FY19: Ridership Productivity (1.9%) Decreased by 1.9% on BREEZE 11.7% Increased by 11.7% on BREEZE 1.3% Increased by 1.3% on COASTER 2.3% Increased by 2.3% on COASTER (8.3%) Decreased by 8.3% on SPRINTER (9.5%) Decreased by 9.5% on SPRINTER 112.0% Increased by 112.8% on FLEX (10%) Decreased by 10% on FLEX (4.8%) Decreased by 4.8% on LIFT (5.7%) Decreased by 5.7% on LIFT Farebox Recovery Compared to Q1 FY18, farebox recovery in Q1 FY19: Farebox Recovery 21.0% Increased from 13.43% to 16.26% on BREEZE (7.2%) Decreased from 39.1% to 36.3% on COASTER 4.9% Increased from 13.72% to 14.39% on SPRINTER (11.6%) Decreased from 12.38% to 10.94% on FLEX (2.9%) Decreased from 7.58% to 7.36% on LIFT On-Time Performance Compared to Q1 FY18, on-time performance in Q1 FY19: On-Time Performance (2.2%) Decreased by 1.9% on BREEZE 2.7% Increased by 1.3% on COASTER (0.9%) Decreased by 8.3% on SPRINTER 0.9% Increased by 112.8% on FLEX (2.7%) Decreased by 4.8% on LIFT Page 3 of 46 Overall, system ridership declined by approximately 2.86%. This trend is consistent with national transit ridership decline, which has been declining since its peak in 2014. The recent ridership decline is influenced by both internal operational factors and external market factors. Market conditions include a significant growth in access to a personal automobile, the growing popularity of transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft, and low unemployment and increased household net worth. Operational factors, such as on-time performance, reliability, and missed trips also impact ridership. Throughout the past year, NCTD took proactive steps to address declining ridership and customer revenue trends. Actions include: • Implementation of a major service change in October 2017 (FY18 Q2) to improve productivity on key BREEZE routes. Appendix C provides an overview of these changes and initial trends in the year following their implementation. • Customer engagement via survey to garner feedback about NCTD’s services. This includes NCTD’s COASTER survey and coordination with SANDAG on a public opinion survey for transit in the region. • Initiation of the Land Use and Transit Integration Study, a grant-funded study that will inventory and analyze existing land use, planning conditions, gaps between land use and mobility, and strategies to address these gaps. In FY19, NCTD is exploring new ways to boost ridership despite recent downward trends. NCTD is incorporating three main components to its strategic approach for providing mobility in North County: 1) Evaluate trends impacting transit ridership, 2) Address barriers to transit use, and 3) Develop innovative service strategies. To incorporate these strategic efforts, NCTD has identified several key priority projects that will help the District better understand key trends, identify challenges and opportunities for current and future riders, and develop new service strategies to increase ridership and productivity. Planned actions include: • Initiation of the Strategic Multimodal Transit Implementation Plan (SMTIP) – an in- depth study of NCTD’s modes that will guide future service levels, design, and implementation of key service strategies. • Coordination with SANDAG on key Mobility Hub pilot programs. This includes a rideshare pilot at key COASTER stations and potential bikeshare at locations along the SPRINTER line to provide first-last mile connections to key employment and education facilities. • Development of on-demand services to provide a more cost-effective solution to LIFT paratransit service. The following graph shows the distribution of system resources (revenue hours and operating costs) compared to quarterly ridership and fare revenue. This graph provides context on where the District’s funds are used in proportion to ridership and revenue attained. The high-level snapshot allows NCTD to identify opportunities for cost-savings and potential reallocation of funds. Page 4 of 46 Graph 1: System Distribution of Resources BREEZE SPRINTER COASTER FLEX LIFT Q1 Ridership 59.5% 22.8% 15.6% 0.3% 1.7% Q1 Revenue 73% 4.1% 2.9% 18.8% Hours 1.2% Q1 Budgeted 45.4% 22.6% 19.3% 1.7% 11.0% Operating Cost Q1 Budgeted 39.6% 17.5% 37.6% 4.3% Fare Revenue 1% Page 5 of 46 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS NCTD’s performance is impacted by both internal and external factors. External factors include but are not limited to: the number of weekdays, number of days of inclement weather, number of railroad closures, the unemployment rate, and average cost of gasoline. The table below provides information regarding these key factors. Table 1 External Factors External Factors FY18 Q1 FY19 Q1 Variance Weekdays 63 63 0 Days of Inclement Weather 6 2 -4 Rail Construction Shutdown Days 0 0 0 Unemployment Rate 4.1% 3.4% -0.8% Average Cost of Gallon of Gasoline $2.99 $3.62 $0.63 Another key component impacting ridership trends is the increased availability of personal automobiles. San Diego vehicle availability and driver's license registration rates have increased significantly since 2009. Between 2009 and 2017, San Diego County’s population grew by 296,122 (10%), while driver’s licenses increased by 270,659 (12.6%) and the number of available vehicles increased by 168,501 (8.6%). As the unemployment rate increases and individuals are able to purchase a private vehicle, transit ridership is significantly impacted. Graph 2: San Diego County Vehicle Ownership 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 San Diego County Vehicles Available San Diego County Drivers Licenses Source: US Census, American Community Survey: Aggregate Number of Vehicles Available California Department of Motor Vehicles: Driver Licenses Outstanding by County Page 6 of 46 These factors have varying degrees of influence on ridership. It is also important to note that overall transit ridership on a national basis is trending downward, as indicated in the ridership graph from the National Transit Database (NTD) below. The graph shows the fluctuation of ridership over time since 1990. NTD provides complete national data through 2017, with 2018 shown as a projection. Graph 3 Total Annual Transit Ridership (000s) Total National Transit Ridership (000s) 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Source: National Transit Database June 2018 NCTD regularly monitors its performance to help manage service quality, efficiency, and cost effectiveness. To complement this, NCTD has developed a series of performance goals for each metric, allowing the District to constantly monitor and address the internal