Transit Operations Quarterly Report For the Period October 1, 2018 – December 31, 2018 (Q2 of FY19) Page 1 of 39 Contents PERFORMANCE REPORT SUMMARY ......................................................................... 3 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ............................................................................. 5 YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE ................................................................................. 8 APPENDIX A: KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ................................................... 10 APPENDIX B: BREEZE ROUTE DESCRIPTIONS AND SERVICE STATISTICS ........ 11 APPENDIX C: COASTER ROUTE DESCRIPTION AND SERVICE STANDARDS ...... 20 APPENDIX D: SPRINTER ROUTE DESCRIPTION AND SERVICE STATISTICS ....... 24 APPENDIX E: LIFT SERVICE DESCRIPTION AND STATISTICS ............................... 28 APPENDIX F: FLEX ROUTE DESCRIPTIONS AND SERVICE STATISTICS .............. 33 APPENDIX G: AMTRAK AND METROLINK ROUTE DESCRIPTIONS AND SERVICE STATISTICS ................................................................................................................. 36 APPENDIX I: FARE COLLECTION SYSTEM ............................................................... 38 Page 2 of 39 PERFORMANCE REPORT SUMMARY The Quarterly Transit Operations Performance Report provides an overview of NCTD performance trends by mode as they relate to budgeted goals for both year to date (through December 31, 2018) and in the current quarter for the fiscal year. NCTD performance goals are set either as contractual requirements or established during the development process of the annual capital and operating budget. It provides key performance indicator reporting and includes detailed analysis of trends, which is included in appendices. The data contained in this report is unaudited and subject to change. Final actual operating information is included in the statistical section of NCTD’s audited Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. Ridership NCTD system-wide FY2019 year to date (YTD) ridership totaled 5,247,333, 2.9% below the YTD budgeted goal. System-wide average weekday ridership totaled 34,416, 2.9% below the budgeted goal. Average Saturday ridership totaled 17,869 and average Sunday ridership totaled 13,749. Average Saturday ridership was 1.9% below the budgeted goal and average Sunday ridership was 1.2% below the budgeted goal. Ridership by mode is provided as part of the Quarterly and Year to Date Performance sections. NCTD systemwide ridership for FY2019 YTD was 2.7% below FY2018 Q1 and Q2. Farebox Recovery Farebox recovery is the ratio of fare revenue divided by operating costs for each mode. Farebox recovery was 15.5% in FY2019 Q2, an increase from 14.7% in FY2018 Q2. FY2019 YTD farebox recovery was 17.0%, an increase from 15.8% in the first two quarters of FY2018. Farebox recovery has increased for BREEZE and COASTER from FY2018 Q2 to FY2019 Q2 and decreased for SPRINTER, FLEX, and LIFT over the same period. The factors impacting the change in the farebox recovery ratio include number of boardings, amount of fare collected and the allocation of operating costs between modes. On-Time Performance NCTD has established on-time performance goals for each of its modes. The following is a summary of the modal performance compared to the District goal. • BREEZE fixed-route on-time performance goal is 90%. FY2019 Q2 performance was 88% and FY2019 YTD was 88%. Key factors impacting BREEZE OTP are road congestion and lift deployment. • SPRINTER rail on-time performance goal is 98%. FY2019 Q2 performance was 97.7% and FY2019 YTD was 97.6%. Key factors impacting SPRINTER OTP are mechanical failures, police activity on the train, and making connections with COASTER trains. • COASTER rail on-time performance goal is 95%. FY2019 Q2 performance was 90.4% and FY2019 YTD was 90.3%. Key factors impacting COASTER OTP are train meets, rail construction, mechanical failures, and passenger loads. • LIFT ADA Paratransit service on-time performance goal is 92%. FY2019 Q2 performance was 79.7% and FY2019 YTD was 83%. Key factors impacting LIFT OTP are medical emergencies, lift deployment, and road congestion. • FLEX on-time performance goal is 95%. FY2019 Q2 performance was 99% and FY2019 YTD was 99%. Key factors impacting FLEX OTP are inclement weather days and lift deployment. Page 3 of 39 Customer Feedback For FY2019 Quarter 2, NCTD received a total of 809 complaints, an increase of 176 complaints compared to the FY2018 Quarter 2. Of the total complaints for FY2019 Q2, 640 were directly associated with the five modes of transit (BREEZE, LIFT, FLEX, COASTER, and SPRINTER), an increase of 35 complaints as compared to FY2018 Q2. BREEZE and LIFT saw increases in complaints, with LIFT seeing the largest increase. Details on customer feedback by mode can be found in the Appendices. Regional Operations Performance Amtrak and Metrolink are regional passenger rail carriers that travel through the NCTD service area. Amtrak provides intercity rail service via the Pacific Surfliner route between San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Luis Obispo. Metrolink provides commuter rail service via seven (7) lines in Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego Counties. During the reporting period systemwide ridership by operator varied; COASTER and Metrolink saw increases between FY2019 YTD and the first two quarters of FY2018, at 0.2% and 1.7%, respectively. During the same periods, Amtrak Pacific Surfliner ridership dropped by 5.6%. Additional ridership information for Amtrak, Metrolink, and the NCTD/Amtrak Rail2Rail Program are included in Appendix G. MTS, through an agreement with NCTD, operates Sorrento Valley COASTER Connection (SVCC) shuttle service during weekday peak periods between the Sorrento Valley COASTER Station and surrounding employment areas. SVCC ridership decreased by 11% in FY2019 YTD compared to the same period in FY2018. Additional SVCC quarterly ridership information is included in Appendix C. Page 4 of 39 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS NCTD’s performance is impacted by both internal and external factors. External factors include but are not limited to: the number of weekdays, number of days of inclement weather, number of railroad closures, the unemployment rate, and average cost of gasoline. The tables below provide information regarding these key factors. Table 1 External Factors by Quarter External Factors FY2018 Q2 FY2019 Q2 Variance Weekdays 63 64 1 Days of Inclement Weather 4 13 9 Rail Construction Shutdown Days 4 4 0 Unemployment Rate 3.5% 3.2% (0.3%) Average Cost of Gallon of Gasoline $3.12 $3.63 $0.51 Table 2 External Factors - Year to Date External Factors FY2018 YTD FY2019 YTD Variance Weekdays 126 127 1 Days of Inclement Weather 10 14 4 Rail Construction Shutdown Days 4 4 0 Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.3% (0.5%) Average Cost of Gallon of Gasoline $3.06 $3.63 $0.57 Inclement weather, which is defined as days with forecasted or actual precipitation, results in decreased boardings. For example, in November 2018, the Thursday before Thanksgiving had total BREEZE boardings of 23,414 and the Thursday after Thanksgiving had inclement weather and BREEZE ridership dropped to 17,309, or a decrease of 26% from two weeks prior. NCTD reviews the net effect of inclement weather days when analyzing ridership loss. Another external component impacting ridership trends is the increased availability of personal automobiles. San Diego vehicle availability and driver's license registration rates have increased significantly since 2009. Between 2009 and 2017, San Diego County’s population grew by 296,122 (10%), while driver’s licenses increased by 270,659 (13%) and the number of available vehicles increased by 168,501 (9%). NCTD will continue to evaluate this trend and other trends to support the achievement of NCTD’s goals. Page 5 of 39 Graph 1 San Diego County Vehicle Ownership 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 San Diego County Vehicles Available San Diego County Drivers Licenses Source: US Census, American Community Survey: Aggregate Number of Vehicles Available California Department of Motor Vehicles: Driver Licenses Outstanding by County It is important to note that transit ridership and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) have experienced periods where usage trended upward and downward based on economic and business cycles. Graph 2 provides national VMT since 1990. Graph 2 United States Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled Since 1990 United States Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (Trillions) 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 2010 2011 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1990 Overall transit ridership on a national basis is trending downward, as indicated in the ridership graph from the National Transit Database (NTD) below. The graph shows the fluctuation of Page 6 of 39 ridership over time since 1990. NTD provides complete national data through 2017, with 2018 shown as a projection. Graph 3 shows NCTD systemwide ridership for the previous ten years; NCTD’s trends are following those seen by operators throughout the nation. Graph 3 Total Annual Transit Ridership Total National Transit Ridership (000s) 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2000 2005 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Source: National Transit Database June 2018 Graph 4 NCTD Systemwide Boardings NCTD Systemwide Boardings 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Internal factors that affect ridership include service levels, on time performance, and vehicle reliability. NCTD regularly monitors its performance to help manage these internal factors, using metrics including service quality, efficiency, and cost effectiveness. Appendix A provides an explanation of NCTD’s key performance metrics and how goals are established. Page 7 of 39 YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE The following table shows performance year to date to budgeted goals. Trends and anomalies will be discussed in the respective modal appendices.