Transit Oriented Communities in the San Diego Region

San Diego Association of Governments TRANSIT ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION

DRAFT - CONTEXT REPORT November 2014

DRAFT TRANSIT ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN EconomicTHE Context SAN Report DIEGO REGION San Diego Regional TOD Strategy

DRAFT - CONTEXT REPORT

November 2014October 15, 2014

PREPARED FOR: San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG)

prepared for: PREPARED BY: SANDAG AECOM

REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Fashion Valley Transit Center in the 1980s. Flickr / SDMTS: https://www.flickr.com/photos/sdmts/13441171155/

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT iii SANDAG

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Context of Transit-Oriented Communities in the San Diego Region ...... 1

2 Setting a Foundation for the Future of Transit-Oriented Communities �� 5

3 Population, Employment, and Housing Growth in the San Diego Region �� 13

4 Regional Transit System and Access to Employment ...... 27

5 Local Market Readiness and Development Prototypes ...... 47

6 Types of Transit-Oriented Communities...... 59

7 Trends and Considerations ...... 67

8 Building a Toolbox...... 73

9 Example TOD Projects in the San Diego Region ...... 75

APPENDICES

A Description of Transit-Oriented Communities...... A-1

iv TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Smart Growth Concept Map (October 2014)...... 1 Figure 2 - 2050 Regional Growth Forecast Projections...... 17 Figure 3 - 2050 Regional Population, Housing, and Jobs Forecast...... 18 Figure 4 - Housing Near Public Transit ...... 18 Figure 5 - Housing Capacity (Number of Existing Plus Additional Housing Units Planned)...... 19 Figure 6 - Population by Age 2008 and 2050...... 19 Figure 7 - Percent of Owner-Occupied Housing Units within One-Half Mile...... 20 Figure 8 - Percent of Owner-Occupied Housing Units within One-Half Mile, by Transit Station...... 21 Figure 9 - Median Household Income within One-Half Mile...... 22 Figure 10 - Median Household Income with One-Half Mile, by Transit Station...... 23 Figure 11 - Employment by Industry Group, San Diego County, 2012...... 24 Figure 12 - Projected Employment Growth Rates by Industry Group: San Diego County, 2012-35 and 2035-50 ��24 Figure 13 - Geographic Distribution of Selected Industry Clusters ...... 25 Figure 14 - 2014 Regional Transit System ...... 33 Figure 15 - Households per Residential Acre within One-Half Mile (2010)...... 34 Figure 16 - Jobs per Acre within One-Half Mile (2010)...... 35 Figure 17 - Blue Line Demographic Profile...... 36 Figure 18 - Green Line Demographic Profile...... 37 Figure 19 - Orange Line Demographic Profile...... 38 Figure 20 - COASTER Demographic Profile ...... 39 Figure 21 - SPRINTER Demographic Profile...... 40 Figure 22 - 2013 Average Weekday Boardings...... 41 Figure 23 - 2013 Average Weekday Alightings...... 42 Figure 24 - Blue LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station...... 43 Figure 25 - Green LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station...... 44 Figure 26 - Orange LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station...... 45 Figure 27 - COASTER FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station...... 46 Figure 28 - SPRINTER FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station...... 46 Figure 29 - Apartment Market Inventory, Pipeline Projects, and Rents by Major Statistical Area, Mid-2014...... 54 Figure 30 - Office Market Inventory, Pipeline Development, Rents, and Vacancy Rates by Major Statistical Area ��55 Figure 31 - Estimated Minimum Rent Thresholds...... 56 Figure 32 - Estimated Minimum Sale Price Thresholds...... 56 Figure 33 - Projected Timing of Development Feasibility by Building Type and Market Area...... 57 Figure 34 - Gap Between Affordable Rents and Minimum Threshold Rent for Feasibility...... 58 Figure 35 - Minimum Land Use and Transportation Targets for Smart Growth Place Types...... 61

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT v SANDAG

America Plaza Station, Downtown San Diego. Source: https://www.flickr.com/people/neighborhoods/

vi TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

SECTION 1. CONTEXT OF TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION

What are transit-oriented communities? Transit-oriented communities (TOCs) are places with concentrated residential, commercial, and mixed-use development served by high-quality transit. Transportation-oriented communities provide transportation choices that allow people to drive less, walk, ride bicycles, and take transit more.

Transit-oriented communities have many benefits, including:

• creating projects and neighborhoods that will reduce GHG emissions; • increasing transit ridership; • providing transportation choices; • supporting walking, biking, and other mobility options; • reducing the amount people drive; • facilitating housing and employment opportunities for all residents in the region; • and, improving performance of the street, highway, and freeway system.1

Transit-Oriented Communities versus Transit-Oriented Development

Transit-oriented communities refer to transit stations and the area that surrounds them. This terminology is used to acknowledge that investments in high-quality transit should be maximized and that great communities and neighborhoods are more than just a transit stop with buildings around it. The term transit-oriented development is used to refer to individual projects, buildings, or other improvements that help create the physical environment of a successful transit-oriented community. This includes joint development and other public-private partnerships to facilitate TOD projects.

Snapshot of Transit-Oriented Communities in the San Diego Region

No two transit-oriented communities in the San Diego region are the same, and each one will continue to evolve into a distinct place. This report describes the context of transit-oriented communities in the San Diego region. Section 1 presents eight topic areas, which are outlined below and discussed in detail in subsequent chapters.

Section 2 - Setting a foundation for transit-oriented communities: Creating communities that are more “transit-oriented” is at the foundation of SANDAG’s land use and transportation planning. As the San Diego region and its transportation system continue to evolve, there have also been great strides in planning for more compact development located near transit. Section 2 describes how SANDAG’s previous planning efforts have set a foundation for the future of transit-oriented communities.

1 SANDAG Staff Report, January 2014

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 1 SANDAG

Section 3 - Population, Housing, and Employment Growth: As the San Diego region grows, demographic and employment changes are anticipated to increase regional demand for residential and commercial development in transit-oriented communities. Studies have estimated that approximately 25 to 35 percent of U.S. households would prefer to live in a transit-oriented community.2

Section 4 - Regional Transit System and Access to Employment: Transit-oriented communities depend on high-quality transit service. The speed, frequency of service, number and spacing of stops, and ability to access employment centers and other major destinations are all key factors to making transit a central part of communities. Access to employment is especially important because studies have shown that people who work near a transit station are more likely than people who live near a station to commute by transit, and employment density is much more highly correlated with transit ridership than is residential density.3

Section 5 - Local Market Readiness and Development Feasibility: Section 5 evaluates whether there is sufficient demand in the near-, medium-, and long-term for different development types that have proven supportive of transit ridership, including: market rate townhomes; 3-4 story podium development; 5-6 story wrapped development; and 15-plus story towers in different parts of the San Diego region. In a station area with a weak real estate market, there may be insufficient demand to support new, higher-intensity development. The role of parking ratios and impact fees on development feasibility, as well as the feasibility of affordable housing are also discussed.

Section 6 - Types of Transit-Oriented Communities: Transit-oriented communities are typified by their land use, density, urban form, and connections to the immediate and surrounding area. Studies of development patterns near transit have found that the availability of appropriate development opportunity sites, infrastructure, and place-making needs can also affect the potential for development in any given transit station area.4

Section 7 - Trends and Considerations: There has been substantial progress made in regional and local land use planning in the past. SANDAG’s Smart Growth Concept Map and updates to general plans, community plans, zoning ordinances and specific plans by local agencies have provided policy and planning support for transit- oriented communities throughout the region. However, implementing projects near transit stations remains a challenge. Successful development projects require collaboration, creative funding packages, and must be carefully designed. Financing has been an increasing challenge, especially with the loss of redevelopment in California. Additionally, even economically feasible projects consistent with adopted plans can face political and legal challenges through the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and community opposition.

Section 8 - Building a Toolbox: This report is also supported by technical white papers that provide an in-depth look at barriers to TOD and identify solutions to overcome them. The recommendations in the white papers will help support the implementation of TOD in the San Diego region.

Section 9 - Example TOD Projects in the San Diego Region: Section 10 describes example development projects near transit stations in the San Diego region. Established developments, recently completed, and planned TOD projects are included.

2 CTOD, September 2004 3 Kolko, February 2011 4 Strategic Economics, October 2014

2 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Section 3 - Population, Housing, and Employment Growth: As the San Diego region grows, demographic Appendix A - Description of Transit-Oriented Communities: Appendix A includes the description of and employment changes are anticipated to increase regional demand for residential and commercial development SANDAG’s Smart Growth Opportunity Areas (2014) with a focus on their readiness and potential as transit- in transit-oriented communities. Studies have estimated that approximately 25 to 35 percent of U.S. households oriented communities. Many Smart Growth Opportunity Areas are omitted because they are not near the transit would prefer to live in a transit-oriented community.2 stations described in Section 4 – Regional Transit System and Access to Employment.

2 CTOD, September 2004 3 Kolko, February 2011 4 Strategic Economics, October 2014

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 3 SANDAG

Street View: Rio Vista West, Mission Valley. Source: Flickr / hercwad

Aerial View of Rio Vista West. Google Earth

4 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

SECTION 2. SETTING A FOUNDATION FOR THE FUTURE OF TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES

Creating communities that are more “transit-oriented” is at the foundation of SANDAG’s land use and transportation planning. As the San Diego region and its transit system continue to evolve, there have also been great strides in planning for more compact development located near transit. SANDAG is preparing a “Regional Transit Oriented Development Strategy” to focus on creating transit-oriented communities, implementing successful transit supportive infrastructure, and facilitating development projects. This section describes how SANDAG’s previous planning efforts have set a foundation for the future of transit-oriented communities.

A Focus on Transit-Oriented Communities

This report is part of SANDAG’s preparation of a Regional Transit Oriented Development Strategy that provides a broader look at the Smart Growth Concept Map and place type definitions. The development of a Regional Transit Oriented Development Strategy is one of six commitments made by the SANDAG Board of Directors as part of the adoption of the 2050 RTP/SCS in 2011.

Transit-oriented communities are places where land use and transportation are closely integrated. This report will reinforce SANDAG’s other planning efforts, including San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan, by focusing on coordination of land use and transit planning to facilitate the creation of transit-oriented communities and implementation of development served by transit stations.

2050 Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy

On October 28, 2011 the SANDAG Board of Directors approved the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan and its Sustainable Communities Strategy (2050 RTP/SCS) for the San Diego region, becoming the first large region in California to prepare an RTP under California climate change legislation (SB 375). In accordance with SB 375, the 2050 RTP/SCS demonstrates how development patterns and the transportation network, policies, and programs will work together to achieve the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets set by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) for cars and light trucks, and provide for a more sustainable future for the region.

The strategy set forth in the 2050 RTP/SCS is to: focus housing and job growth in the urbanized areas where there is existing and planned infrastructure; protect sensitive habitat and open space; invest in a network that gives

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 5 SANDAG

residents and workers transportation options that reduce GHG emissions; promote equity for all; and implement the plan through incentives and collaboration.5

Six Commitments from the 2050 RTP/SCS

The SANDAG Board of Directors committed to undertaking six actions as part of the adoption of the 2050 RTP/SCS. These six commitments (listed below) are an integral part of the work program for San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan, and will assist in SANDAG’s implementation of SB 375 and its 2050 RTP/SCS consistent with California’s state planning priorities (AB 857 adopted in 2002), the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, and regional GHG targets.6 The six commitments include:

• Alternative Land Use/Transportation Scenarios • Regional Bicycle Plan Early Action Program • Active Transportation Implementation Strategy • Enhancements to Travel Demand Models • Complete Streets Policy • Regional Transit Oriented Development Strategy/Policy

San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan

SANDAG is spearheading a broad-based community effort to create San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan. It will combine a big picture vision for regional growth over the next 35 years with an implementation program to help make that vision a reality. SANDAG is working in close partnership with all the region’s cities and the county government to create an innovative plan for the growth of communities.

The vision statement for this long-range blueprint – which will look out through 2050 – is “to provide innovative mobility choices and planning to support a sustainable and healthy region, a vibrant economy, and an outstanding quality of life for all.” San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan will unite two major SANDAG planning efforts into one document, giving the region a single, easily accessible plan for the future. Currently, the future growth and development of the San Diego region is guided by the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) adopted in 2004 and the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan/ Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) adopted in 2011. In May 2012, the SANDAG Board of Directors approved updating both and merging them into one document.

The new Regional Plan will build upon local planning efforts, emphasizing the link between land use planning and transportation planning. Closer integration of the two will result in more compact and sustainable communities, helping the region meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. The plan will seek to enhance the movement of both people and goods. The Regional Plan also will break new ground by incorporating a public health component.7

5 SANDAG 2050 RTP/SCS, October 2011 6 SANDAG Staff Report, January 2014 7 SANDAG San Diego Forward Fact Sheet, 2014

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Smart Growth Concept Map

In 2004, SANDAG adopted the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) for the San Diego region. The RCP provides a vision for the region based on smart growth and sustainability. A key component of the RCP has been the development of a “Smart Growth Concept Map” illustrating the location of existing, planned, and potential smart growth areas.

In 2006, SANDAG accepted the initial Smart Growth Concept Map for the San Diego region. In October 2014, the Board of Directors accepted a technical update of the Concept Map (Figure 1 - Smart Growth Concept Map). The technical update was limited to the addition, refinement, or removal Smart Growth Opportunity Areas from the Concept Map. A previous update was also accepted by the Board of Directors in January 2012.

The Concept Map contains more than 200 locations in seven smart growth categories. The seven smart growth “place types” include: the Metropolitan Center, Urban Centers, Town Centers, Community Centers, Rural Villages, Mixed Use Transit Corridors, and Special Use Centers, reflecting the notion that smart growth is not a “one-size- fits-all” endeavor. Figure 1 also provides additional information on the Smart Growth Place Types. Section 6 - Types of Transit-Oriented Communities discuss the relationship between the Smart Growth Concept Map and transit-oriented communities in the San Diego Region.8

Smart Growth Tool Box

Implementation is a key goal of the Smart Growth Concept Map. The primary ways that SANDAG supports implementation is to provide incentives and assistance to local member agencies to encourage smart growth development in the areas identified on the Smart Growth Concept Map.9 The SANDAG Smart Growth Tool Box includes the following planning and financing tools:

Planning Tools

• Outreach Program • Smart Growth Concept Map • Visualization Tools and Photo Library • Smart Growth Design Guidelines • Smart Growth Trip Generation/Parking Study • San Diego Regional Bicycle Plan • Research on Connections between Public Health, Land Use, and Transportation • Planning and Designing for Pedestrians • Integrating Transportation Demand Management Into the Planning and Development Process - A Reference for Cities • Transportation Demand Management Parking Study and Inventory

Financing Tools

• TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Program (SGIP)

8 SANDAG Staff Report, October 2014 9 Ibid.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 7 SANDAG

• TDA/TransNet Bicycle, Pedestrian, and Neighborhood Safety Program (now Active Transportation Grant Program)

Other Related SANDAG Plans, Studies, and Programs 10

Urban Area Transit Strategy (UATS)

SANDAG crafted a new vision for public transit as part of the 2050 RTP/SCS through the preparation of the Urban Area Transit Strategy (UATS). The goals of the transit strategy were twofold: first, maximize transit ridership in the greater urbanized area of the region; and second, test the role of the transit network to reduce vehicle miles traveled and GHG emissions. The 2050 RTP/SCS added 60 additional miles of Light Rail Transit and other transit service as a result of this project.

Light Rail Advanced Planning Study

This study is conducting advance planning on the four new rail lines outlined in the 2050 RTP/SCS, providing a detailed analysis of ridership potential, capital and operating costs, system infrastructure needs, and potential alignments and station locations. The study was started in FY 2013 and will be completed by the end of FY 2014.

Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) Plan

The Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) process for the fifth housing element cycle was conducted by SANDAG in conjunction with the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and its Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) in accordance with Senate Bill 375 (Steinberg, 2008) (SB 375) and SB 575 (Steinberg, 2009). SANDAG is assigned this responsibility by state housing element law, and undertakes this process prior to each housing element cycle.

The fifth housing element cycle covers the time period of January 1, 2013 – December 31, 2020 (eight years).The synchronization and improved integration of transportation, housing, and land use planning is one of the objectives of SB 375, which will help the region meet the greenhouse gas reduction targets set by the California Air Resources Board. The RHNA Plan allocates RHNA numbers in four income categories to each of the region’s 19 jurisdictions, thus addressing the objective of promoting socioeconomic equity throughout the region. It utilizes the forecasted pattern of development from the 2050 Regional Growth Forecast, which incorporates policies in local plans that call for higher density housing to be concentrated in urbanized areas adjacent to transit and that protect environmental and agricultural resources, and demonstrates that the region’s local land use plans have significantly increased the region’s multifamily housing capacity since the 2030 Regional Growth Forecast.

Climate Action Strategy

The SANDAG Climate Action Strategy serves as a guide to help policymakers address climate change as they make decisions to meet the needs of our growing population, maintain and enhance our quality of life, and promote economic stability. It does so in the context of the significant action on climate change happening in California, and the need for national and international attention to address what is ultimately a global problem. The Climate Action Strategy includes objectives and policy measures that are aimed at reducing greenhouse gases in ways that

10 SANDAG Staff Report, June 2014

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also create jobs, improve social equity, and protect our environment – in short, promote sustainable, livable communities and a high quality of life in our region, and that SANDAG, local governments, and other regional entities have authority and influence over three essential areas that contribute to climate change: land use patterns, transportation infrastructure and related public investments, and government operations.

San Diego Regional Bicycle Plan

The Regional Bike Plan, adopted in May 2010, establishes a network of regional bikeway corridors for intercommunity bicycle travel and proposes a comprehensive set of programs to support bicycling in order to make the bicycle a practical means of transportation in the San Diego region.

Safe Routes to School Programs

At the local level, a number of jurisdictions have initiated comprehensive Safe Routes to School programs in order to encourage more walking and bicycling to school. For example, the City of Chula Vista is collaborating with education, public health and community partners on the Healthy Eating Active Communities (HEAC) campaign with the goal of improving access to healthy food and physical activity in schools and neighborhoods. SANDAG approved a Regional Safe Routes to School Strategic Plan to guide future SANDAG involvement in promoting walking and bicycling to school as safe and attractive travel choices. The Strategic Plan is guiding work on an implementation program currently underway and funded through Healthy Works.

Safe Routes to Transit

The Safe Routes to Transit Program will prioritize projects and develop program that provide bicycle and pedestrian access around existing and planned transit stops and stations. SANDAG will work closely with the local jurisdictions to identify opportunities to complement projects and programs identified in their bicycle and pedestrian plans.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 9 Attachment 1a 4 Figure 1 - Smart Growth Concept Map (October 2014) 1 - Smart Growth Figure 10 CONTEXT REPORT: SAN DIEGO REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY Preparing the Smart Growth Concept Map

The Regional Comprehensive Plan calls for better coordination between land use and transportation. A key implementation step is the preparation of a “Smart Growth Concept Map” that identifies locations in the region that can support smart growth and transit. The map serves as the foundation for prioritizing transportation investments and determining eligibility for Smart Growth Incentive funds. The Concept Map contains just over 200 existing, planned, or potential smart growth locations. Transportation and planning professionals from all jurisdictions have provided recommendations for these locations. The SANDAG Board of Directors has accepted the Concept Map for planning purposes and for use in the TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Program. Smart growth in an urban center like University City looks different from a town center in Encinitas or a community center in Imperial Beach. The following defines the types of smart growth areas that are featured on the map.

Metropolitan Center The region’s primary business, civic, commercial, and cultural Smart center • Mid- and high-rise residential, office, and commercial buildings • Very high levels of employment • Draws from throughout the region and from beyond the region’s borders • Served by numerous transportation services Growth Example: Downtown San Diego Urban Center Subregional business, civic, commercial, and cultural centers Rural Village in the • Mid- and high-rise residential, office, and commercial Distinct communities within the unincorporated areas of San buildings • Medium to high levels of employment • Draws from Diego County • Low-rise employment and residential buildings throughout the region, with many from the immediate area • Draws from nearby rural areas • Concentrated local road network Served by transit lines and local bus services within the village, with possible local transit service San Diego Region Examples: University City, Uptown/Hillcrest, Chula Vista Urban Examples: Alpine, Fallbrook Core, Downtown National City, Downtown La Mesa Mixed Use Transit Corridor Town Center Areas with concentrated residential and mixed use development Suburban downtowns within the region • Low- and mid- along a linear transit corridor • Variety of low-, mid- and high-rise What is Smart Growth? rise residential, office, and commercial buildings • Some buildings, with employment, commercial and retail businesses • employment • Draws from the immediate area • Served by Draws from nearby communities corridor/regional transit lines and local services or shuttle Examples: University Avenue and El Cajon Blvd. in San Diego, Smart growth is a compact, efficient, and environmentally-sensitive urban development pattern. services Mission Road in Escondido, North Santa Fe in Vista, Seacoast It focuses future growth and infill development close to jobs, services, and public facilities to Examples: Downtowns of La Mesa, Oceanside, Coronado, Drive and Palm Ave. in Imperial Beach Encinitas maximize the use of existing infrastructure and preserve open space and natural resources. Special Use Center Smart growth is characterized by more compact, higher density development in key areas Community Center Employment areas consisting primarily of medical or educational Areas with housing within walking/biking distance of transit facilities • Variety of low-, mid- and high-rise buildings • throughout the region that is walkable, near public transit, and promotes good community design. stations • Low- to mid-rise residential, office, and commercial Dominated by one non-residential land use (e.g., medical or Smart growth results in more housing and transportation choices for those who live and work in buildings • Draws from nearby communities and neighborhoods • educational) • Draws from throughout the region or immediate Served by local high-frequency transit subregion smart growth areas. Examples: Imperial Beach 9th and Palm, Clairemont Town Square, Examples: SDSU, Cal State San Marcos, UCSD, Nordahl SPRINTER Palomar Gateway in Chula Vista Station

For more information on smart growth areas visit www.sandag.org/rcp 2012

CONTEXT REPORT: SAN DIEGO REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY 11 SANDAG

Caption still needed. Source: Flickr / 39017545@N02

12 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

SECTION 3. POPULATION, HOUSING, AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION

As the San Diego region grows and continues to change, demographic and employment trends in the San Diego region are anticipated to favor transit- oriented communities. Section 3 provides information about the regional demand for different development types in the San Diego region, and describes demographic, housing, employment, and development trends that support transit-oriented communities.

Regional Demand for Development Near Transit

Studies have estimated that approximately 25 to 35 percent of U.S. households would prefer to live in a transit- oriented community.11 However, the extent of demand for development near transit in any particular region depends on the region’s demographic characteristics as well as local preference. Surveys indicate that the Baby Boomer (born between 1946 and 1964, and aged 45 to 64 in 2010) and Millennial (born in the 1980s and 1990s, and aged approximately 18 to 34 in 2010) generations, which together are expected to drive housing market trends in the coming decades, are particularly interested in access to transit, amenity-rich neighborhoods, and shorter commutes.12 Small households, renters, and immigrants are also considered more likely to locate near transit.13

Businesses are increasingly choosing locations based on factors such as local quality of live and the productivity and education levels of the local workforce. Firms in the professional, scientific, and financial services, information, and other “knowledge-based” industries are especially likely to locate near transit.14 These firms are less tied to factors such as the cost of transportation, and more likely to choose locations based on quality of life for their workers.15

2050 Regional Growth Forecast

The 2050 Regional Growth Forecast, which SANDAG updates every four years, projects that the region’s population will expand by nearly one million people by 2050, resulting in the need for more than 330,000 homes. The growth forecast also projects nearly 500,000 new jobs in the region (See: Figure 2 - 2050 Regional Growth Forecast Projections; and, Figure 3 - 2050 Regional Population, Housing, and Jobs Forecast).

The 2050 RTP/SCS provides an integrated land use and transportation plan for how the region would be able to accommodate regional population growth. The 2050 RTP/SCs showed that the number of homes located within one-half mile of public transit services would increase from 45 percent in 2008 to 64 percent in 2050 (See: Figure

11 CTOD, September 2004 12 APA, 2014 13 CTOD, September 2014 14 CTOD, May 2011 15 Salvesen and Renski, January 2003

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 13 SANDAG

2 - 2050 Regional Growth Forecast Projections; and, Figure 4 - Housing Near Public Transit). It also projected an increase in housing capacity in areas with densities between 20 and 39.9 dwelling units per acre and 40-plus dwelling units per acre (See: Figure 5 - Housing Capacity).

During the last decade, many local jurisdictions have updated their land use plans and zoning ordinances, collectively moving the region’s vision of the future toward more compact development near transit, and toward greater open space preservation. Focusing housing and job opportunities in existing urbanized areas has replaced previous assumptions of more dispersed development patterns. Transit-oriented communities will play an important role in accommodating the region’s future population, housing, and employment growth, but challenges remain in market readiness and potential capacity for transit-oriented communities throughout the San Diego region.

This shift in development patterns is critical to creating a more sustainable way of life and helping the region meet GHG reduction targets established by the California Air Resources Board. San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan will include a Sustainable Communities Strategy to guide efforts to meet the GHG targets, while maintaining our quality of life.16

Demographic Trends Toward Transit-Oriented Communities

This section describes past and projected demographic and trends in the San Diego region, focusing on the types of households that are often found in transit-oriented communities.

SANDAG projects that the county’s total population will reach 4 million people by 2050, and that the region will see a dramatic shift towards multi-family housing development over the coming decades. By 2050, multi-family housing is expected to account for 46 percent of the county’s total housing stock, compared to 36 percent in 2010. In order to meet this projection, multi-family units will need to account for nearly 80 percent of new units built between 2010 and 2035, and more than 90 percent of new units between 2035 and 2050. In comparison, only 40 percent of new units built in San Diego County between 2000 and 2010 were in multi-family buildings.

The Millennial and Baby Boomer generations account for the largest shares of the region’s population, and are expected to drive housing demand in the coming decade. The two biggest age groups in San Diego – as in the rest of the state – are the Millennials and the Baby Boomers. These two generations are expected to drive demand for new housing in the coming years, as the Millennials come into adulthood and the Baby Boomers enter retirement, and have been shown to have a particular interest in neighborhoods with access to transit, amenity-rich neighborhoods, and shorter commutes. Figure 6 shows the population by age group in 2008 and a forecast for 2050.

The region also has a high and growing number of non-family households. Compared to the state, San Diego County had slightly larger shares of single-person and other non-family (roommate) households in 2010. The number of single-person and other non-family households also grew somewhat faster in the county between 2000 and 2010 compared to the state. Reflecting this household composition, the average household size in San

16 SANDAG 2050 RTP/SCS, October 2011

14 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Diego County (2.75 persons per household) was lower than the statewide average (2.9) in 2010. Small households and households without children are considered most likely to locate near transit.

Single-family and owner-occupied units account for most of the region’s housing stock. Single- family homes accounted for 61 percent of San Diego County’s housing units in 2010, compared to 65 percent of housing units in the state. However, while single-family homes still make up the majority of units in the county, the size of the multi-family housing stock increased by 14 percent during the 2000s, compared to a 12 percent increase in the number of single-family units. Approximately 55 percent of housing units in the county are owner-occupied and 45 percent are renter occupied, similar to the statewide average. The estimated percent of owner-occupied units is shown for each transit station in Figure 7 and Figure 8. The percent of owner-occupied housing units was calculated for each existing transit station to describe differences throughout the San Diego region.

The region has a high overall median household income. In 2010, the region’s median household income was $59,900, above the statewide median of $57,700. However, there is significant variation in household incomes across the region, with more affluent communities generally concentrated in North County and especially along the coast. Figure 9 and Figure 10 show the estimated median household income in the areas around transit stations in the San Diego region.

Employment Trends Toward Transit-Oriented Communities

This section describes past and projected employment trends in the San Diego region, focusing on the types of jobs that research show have the greatest propensity to locate near transit.

While San Diego maintains significant employment in government and armed forces, the region’s economy has diversified over the past 40 years to include significant employment in knowledge- based jobs, education and healthcare, and tourism-related industries. Figure 11 shows the distribution by industry group of the approximately 1.4 million jobs located in San Diego County in 2012. Industries are grouped roughly by land use; for example, knowledge-based industries17 are typically based in office and/or research and development buildings, while production, distribution, and repair (PDR)18 jobs tend to be located in manufacturing and warehousing space.

Knowledge-based industries, a key driver of demand for TOD in most regions, accounted for the highest number of jobs in 2010. The knowledge-based industry group, which includes professional and scientific service, finance and real estate, information, and management and administrative support services, accounted for over 300,000 jobs in 2010, or approximately 21 percent of total employment in San Diego County (See: Figure 9 - Employment by Industry Group). National research has shown that firms in these knowledge-based industries have the greatest propensity to locate near transit, and that workers in these industries are most likely to take transit to work.19 The public sector was the second largest employer at about 230,000 jobs, followed by the leisure and hospitality, PDR, education and medical, and retail industry groups.

17 Includes professional, scientific, and business services, finance and insurance, real estate, and information. 18 PDR includes: wholesale, transportation, warehousing, and utilities. 19 CTOD Trends in Transit Oriented Development, 2000-2010

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 15 SANDAG

Future employment growth is expected to be driven by the knowledge-based, leisure and hospitality, and education and medical service industry groups. SANDAG projects that total employment in the region will increase to 1.7 million by 2035 and 1.9 million by 2050. Figure 12 shows the annual average growth rates projected for each industry group between 2010 and 2035, and 2035 and 2050. In addition to significant growth in the knowledge-based, leisure and hospitality, and education and medical services industries, SANDAG projects rapid growth in the “other” category driven by expected increases in the construction sector.

Employment in knowledge-based industries is concentrated in North City and North County West, in places that are not currently well-served by fixed-guideway transit. Figure 13 shows the geographic distribution of employment in some of the region’s traded industry clusters, including biomedical devices and products, biotech and pharmaceuticals, information and communication tech, publishing and marketing. These clusters include significant employment in knowledge-based industries, as well as jobs in production, distribution, and repair and other industry groups. Employment in these clusters is most highly concentrated in the University Town Center area, with additional, smaller concentrations located in office parks along the I-15 and I-5 corridors and in Carlsbad. With the exception of the Coaster commuter rail line, these areas currently have limited fixed-guideway transit, suggesting that access to transit is not a primary factor in decision- making for these types of businesses in the San Diego region. Downtown San Diego also has smaller concentrations of information and communications tech and publishing and marketing jobs.

16 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Table 3.2 – 2050 Regional Growth Forecast Projections FigureTable 3.22 - –2050 2050 RegionalRegional Growth Growth Forecast Forecast Projections Projections 2008 to 2050 Change

2008 to2008 2050 Change 2020 2035 2050 Numeric Percent

2008 2020 Total2035 Population 2050 Numeric3,131,552 Percent3,535,000 4,026,131 4,384,867 1,253,315 40%

Total Population 3,131,552 3,535,000 4,026,131Household Population4,384,867 1,253,3153,033,985 3,405,06840% 3,873,175 4,210,591 1,176,606 39%

Household Population 3,033,985 3,405,068 3,873,175Group Quarters4,210,591 Population 1,176,606 97,567 39% 129,932 152,956 174,276 76,709 79%

Group Quarters Population 97,567 129,932 Jobs 152,956 174,276 76,7091,501,080 1,619,61579% 1,813,372 2,003,038 501,958 33%

Jobs 1,501,080 1,619,615 1,813,372Civilian Jobs 2,003,038 501,9581,411,81 1 1,515,34633% 1,709,103 1,898,769 486,958 34%

Civilian Jobs 1,411,811 1,515,346 1,709,103Military Jobs 1,898,769 486,958 89,269 104,26934% 104,269 104,269 15,000 17%

Military Jobs 89,269 104,269 Total 104,269 Housing Units104,269 15,0001,140,654 1,262,48817% 1,417,520 1,529,090 388,436 34%

Total Housing Units 1,140,654 1,262,488 1,417,520Single Family1,529,090 388,436692,382 728,56634% 755,477 761,699 69,317 10%

Single Family 692,382 728,566 755,477Multiple Family761,699 69,317405,023 10%493,243 624,419 732,832 327,809 81%

Multiple Family 405,023 493,243 624,419Mobile Homes 732,832 327,809 43,249 81%40,679 37,624 34,559 -8,690 -20%

Mobile Homes 43,249 40,679 Households 37,624 34,559 -8,6901,074,896 1,200,966-20% 1,357,084 1,467,026 392,130 36%

Households 1,074,896 1,200,966 1,357,084Vacancy Rate 1,467,026 392,130 5.8% 36%4.9% 4.3% 4.1% 0.0 -29%

Vacancy Rate 5.8% 4.9% Household 4.3% Size 4.1% 0.0 2.82 -29%2.84 2.85 2.87 0.05 2%

Household Size 2.82 2.84 Total 2.85 Acres 2.87 0.052,727,197 2,727,192% 7 2,727,197 2,727,197 0 0%

Total Acres 2,727,197 2,727,197 2,727,197Residential 2,727,197 0335,895 403,440 0% 544,868 634,498 298,603 89%

Residential 335,895 403,440 544,868Employment 634,498 298,603 88,177 89%91,2 86 95,610 99,905 11,728 13%

Employment 88,177 91,286 95,610Parks and Constrained99,905 Lands 11,728 1,539,657 1,540,164 13% 1,540,966 1,541,314 1,656 0%

Parks and Constrained Lands 1,539,657 1,540,164 1,540,966Vacant Land 1,541,314 1,656386,266 327,972 0% 209,005 136,183 -250,083 -65% Vacant Land 386,266 327,972 Distribution 209,005 of 136,183Projected Housing-250,083 Growth -65% Distribution of Projected Housing Growth Percent of Numeric Regional Regional Percent of 2008 Numeric 2020 2035 2050 Regional Regional Change Change 2008 2020 2035 2050 Change Change 2008-2050 2008-2050 Region 2008-20501,140,654 2008-2050 1,262,488 1,417,520 1,529,090 100% 388,436

Region 1,140,654 1,262,488 1,Urban417,520 Area Transit1,529,090 Strategy 100% 900,342 388,436989,075 1,108,835 1,205,613 79% 305,271 Urban Area Transit Strategy 900,342 989,075 1,108,835Distribution of1,205,613 Projected Job Growth79% 305,271 Distribution of Projected Job Growth Percent of Numeric Percent of Numeric Regional Regional Regional Regional Change Change Change 2008 Change 2020 2035 2050 2008-2050 2008-2050 2008 2020 Region2035 2050 2008-20501,501,080 2008-2050 1,619,615 1,813,372 2,003,038 100% 501,958

Region 1,501,080 1,619,615 1,Urban813,372 Area Transit2,003,038 Strategy 100% 1,301,242 501,9581,394,320 1,554,630 1,712,639 82% 411,397 Urban Area Transit Strategy 1,301,242 1,394,320 1,554,630Note: The 2050 1,Regional712,639 Growth Forecast82% represents a411,397 combinatio n of economic and demographic projects, existing land use plans and policies, as well as potential land use plan changes that may occur in the region between 2030 and 2050 (data shown in italics). In Note: The 2050 Regional Growth Forecast represents a combination of economic and demographic projects, existing land use plans and general, growth between 2008 and 2030 is based on adopted land use plans and policies, and growth between 2030 and 2050 includes policies, as well as potential land use plan changes that may occur in the region between 2030 and 2050 (data shown in italics). In alternatives that may, in some cases, reach beyond existing adopted plans. general, growth between 2008 and 2030 is based on adopted land use plans and policies, and growth between 2030 and 2050 includes alternatives that may, in some cases, reach beyond existing adopted plans. Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 17 3-8 Chapter 3: Forging a Path for More Sustainable Living 3-8 Chapter 3: Forging a Path for More Sustainable Living SANDAG

Figure 3 - 2050 Regional Population, Housing, and Jobs Forecast In millions

Figures 3.11 through 3.13 (employment measured by the number of dwelling units, Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast density) and Figures 3.14 through 3.16 shops, and/or employees per acre or square (housing density) show that most growth in mile, floor area ratio (FAR), and other similar housing and employment is expected to occur measures.” (Guidelines, p. 134) In order to in incorporated cities in the western third of identify intensity for non-residential land uses, the region in the years 2020, 2035, and 2050, SANDAG has relied upon the best available respectively. The California Transportation information, which is employment density or Commission’s Regional Transportation Plan jobs per acre. Guidelines (Guidelines) provide that density Figure 4 - Housing Near Publicand clustering Transit of land uses are “typically

Figure 3.9 – Housing Near Public Transit

2008 2050

Within 1/2 Mile Within 1/2 Mile Not Within of Transit Not Within of Transit 1/2 Mile of Transit 1/2 Mile of Transit 64% 55% 36%

Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast

Figure 3.10 – Housing Capacity (Number of Existing Plus Additional Housing Units Planned)

18 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT

Source: SANDAG Regional Growth Forecasts

3-26 Chapter 3: Forging a Path for More Sustainable Living

Figures 3.11 through 3.13 (employment measured by the number of dwelling units, density) and Figures 3.14 through 3.16 shops, and/or employees per acre or square (housing density) show that most growth in mile, floor area ratio (FAR), and other similar housing and employment is expected to occur measures.” (Guidelines, p. 134) In order to in incorporated cities in the western third of identify intensity for non-residential land uses, the region in the years 2020, 2035, and 2050, SANDAG has relied upon the best available respectively. The California Transportation information, which is employment density or Commission’s Regional Transportation Plan jobs per acre. Guidelines (Guidelines) provide that density and clustering of land uses are “typically

Figure 3.9 – Housing Near Public Transit

2008 2050

Within 1/2 Mile Within 1/2 Mile Not Within of Transit Not Within of Transit 1/2 Mile of Transit 1/2 Mile of Transit 64% 55% 36%

REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast

FigureFigure 5 -3.8 Housing shows the Capacity aging of the (Number region’s ofFigure 80Existing percent 3.10 – of HousingPlus new growthAdditional Capacity will be inHousing the Units Planned) population between 2008 and (Number2050. The of Existingurban Plus areas. Additional Figure 3.10 Housing shows Unitsthe changes Planned) number of people aged 65 and older is in housing capacity that have occurred over expected to increase by 143 percent. The time in the SANDAG growth forecasts. The number of people older than 85 is projected projected increase in housing capacity is to increase by 214 percent. The aging of the dramatic for areas with densities between 20 population is a significant demographic trend, and 39.9 dwelling units per acre and 40-plus and the 2050 RTP/SCS places more attention dwelling units per acre. The increases reflect on transportation for seniors, people with extensive work by local jurisdictions to update limited means, and individuals with general and specific plans to accommodate disabilities. These specialized services are future growth and development in the coordinated with transit services. The urbanized areas of the region where existing 2050 RTP/SCS includes an expansion of the and planned public transit is located. Senior Mini-Grant program and other specialized transportation grant programs to meet this need.

Figure 3.9 shows that the number of homes locatedSource: within SANDAG one Regional half-mile Growth of public Forecasts transit services will increase from 45 percent in 2008 3-26to 64 percent Chapter in 2050.3: Forging This a increasePath for More is based Sustainable Living on new transit services, detailed in Chapter 6 and also on the fact that approximately

Figure 6 - Population by AgeFigure 2008 3.8 and – Population 2050 by Age 2008 and 2050

Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast

SANDAG 2050 Regional Transportation Plan 3-25 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 19 SANDAG

Figure 7 - Percent of Owner-Occupied Housing Units within One-Half Mile

View Interactive Map Online: http:// mgelbman. cartodb.com/ viz/8f666708- 5e0b-11e4-b1c0- 0e018d66dc29/ public_map

20% 80% Owner-Occupied Owner-Occupied

20 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 8 - Percent of Owner-Occupied Housing Units with One-Half Mile, by Transit Station

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 21 SANDAG

Figure 9 - Median Household Income within One-Half Mile

View Interactive Map Online: http://cdb. io/1udYni6

$35,000 $105,000 Median HH Income Median HH Income

22 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 10 - Median Household Income with One-Half Mile, by Transit Station

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 23 Employment in knowledge-based industries is concentrated in North City and North County West, in places that are not currently well-served by fixed-guideway transit. Figure 11 shows the geographic distribution of employment in some of the region’s traded industry clusters, including biomedical devices and products, biotech and pharmaceuticals, information and communication tech, publishing and marketing. These clusters include significant employment in knowledge-based industries, as well as jobs in production, distribution, and repair and other industry groups. Employment in these clusters is most highly concentrated in the University Town Center area, with additional, smaller concentrations located in office parks along the I-15 and I-5 corridors and in Carlsbad. With the exception of the Coaster commuter rail line, these areas currently have limited fixed-guideway transit, suggesting that access to transit is not a primary factor in decision-making for these types of businesses in the San SANDAG Diego region. Downtown San Diego also has smaller concentrations of information and communications tech and publishing and marketing jobs. Figure 11 - Employment by Industry Group, San Diego County, 2012 Figure 9. Employment by Industry Group: San Diego County, 2012 350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

Total Employment 100,000

50,000

*Production, distribution, and repair. Inludes manufacturing, wholesale, transportation, warehousing, and utilities. Figure 12 - Projected Employment Growth Rates by Industry Group: San Diego County, 2012-35 andFigure 2035-50 10. Projected Employment Growth Rates by Industry Group: San Diego County, 2012-35 and 2035-50 4% 2012-2035 3% 2035-2050 3%

0% Economic Context Report -15-

Annual Average Change Average Percent Annual -1%

-1%

-2%

*Production, distribution, and repair. Inludes manufacturing, wholesale, transportation, warehousing, and utilities. **Includes professional, scientific, and business services, finance and insurance, real estate, and information. Armed forces employment is projected to remain constant (0 percent growth) Source: SANDAG, 2014; Strategic Economics, 2014.

24 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT

Economic Context Report -16- REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

FigureFigure 13- Geographic 11.Geographic Distribution Distribution of ofSelected Selected Industry Industry Clusters: Clusters: 2010 Employment 2010 Employment by Zip Code by Zip Code

Excerpted from SANDAG, “Traded Industry Clusters in the San Diego Region,” 2012.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 25 Economic Context Report -17- SANDAG

Bus connection from Sorrento Valley Station to UCSD. Source: https://www.flickr.com/people/awfulshot/

26 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

SECTION 4. REGIONAL TRANSIT SYSTEM AND ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT

Transit-oriented communities depend on high-quality transit service. The speed, frequency of service, number and spacing of stops, and ability to access employment centers and other major destinations are all key factors to making transit an integral part of the everyday life of communities.

Regional Transit System

The Blue Line, Orange Line, and Green Line (Trolley), COASTER and SPRINTER are the foundation of the region’s transportation network. Each of the stations along the Trolley, COASTER, and SPRINTER lines presents an opportunity to create different types of transit-oriented communities. The newly launched Rapid bus service also provides an example of how new and enhanced service can play a role in supporting transit-oriented communities. Figure 14 shows the regional transit system that supports the creation of transit-oriented communities (See: Figure 14 - 2014 Regional Transit System).

This section builds upon a literature review conducted as part of developing a Regional Transit-Oriented Development Strategy.20 Key findings of the Literature Review related to transit service include:

1. The region’s existing high-frequency transit lines are concentrated in the Central and South Suburban Major Statistical Area, where population densities are highest: Existing Trolley lines connect Central and South Suburban neighborhoods with Downtown San Diego, with additional connections to the Eastern Suburban cities of El Cajon and Santee. In addition, the Green Line, which began service in 2005, provides service to Mission Valley (located at the southern edge of the North City MSA). These parts of the region have some of the highest population densities.21

2. There are more limited transit options in North City and North County, where employment densities tend to be the highest. Many important employment centers are located in North City and North County West, including University Town Center, Torrey Pines, Kearny Mesa, Carlsbad, and the I-15 corridor.22 However, with the exception of the Green Line in Mission Valley, transit service in North City and North County is limited to the COASTER and SPRINTER, which run relatively low-frequency service with headways every 30 to 60 minutes or longer.

Trolley, COASTER, and SPRINTER stations are visible and permanent improvements, and communities can continue to develop around these stations. They provide certainty to people choosing to live or open businesses in transit- oriented communities that they will have access to high-quality transit that is predictable and reliable. This also

20 Strategic Economics, Lit Review, 2014 21 Strategic Economics 2014 22 Ibid.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 27 SANDAG

provides some predictability for investors and developers.23 High-quality transit can enable development in transit- oriented communities that are integrated with mobility options that provide transportation choices, and require fewer parking spaces.

The introduction of Rapid bus service along College Avenue, El Cajon Blvd., and Park Blvd. also creates new opportunities for transit-oriented communities. The new Mid-City Rapid bus service provides enhanced transit service to urban communities and presents opportunities for emerging transit-oriented communities. Additional enhancements to the service that provide a dedicated right-of-way and more frequent service will further improve the development of transit-oriented communities.

Access to Employment

Access to jobs is a key driver of transit-oriented communities and it is a challenge for the San Diego region. Major job centers are dispersed in different locations throughout the San Diego region and most are not in areas well- served by transit connections. Downtown San Diego, although well-served by transit, only has 12 percent of the region’s office market.24 Other major job centers, including University City, Mira Mesa, Sorrento Valley, San Marcos, Carlsbad, and Chula Vista are not currently served by high-quality transit. The future Mid-Coast Trolley Extension will connect University City to downtown San Diego, and will allow more people in the San Diego to get to work on the Trolley.

Transit corridors and systems that provide direct connections to a region’s downtown or major employment centers are significantly more likely to attract new development compared to transit lines that do not serve a central business district or major employment concentration.25 In addition to attracting more development, transit corridors that connect to employment centers are also likely to support higher ridership.26 People who work near a transit station are more likely than people who live near a station to commute by transit, and employment density is much more highly correlated with transit ridership than is residential density.27

Existing Residential Density

Residential densities within 0.5 miles of a transit station can help measure the existing number of people that live near a transit station. For this report, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to estimate the number of people living within a half-mile (0.5 mi) of each transit station in the San Diego region. Figure 14 shows the average residential density within one-half mile (0.5 mi) of each station. Figures 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21 present the average residential density within one-half mile (0.5 mi) of each station, by transit line. The total population within one-half mile (0.5 mi) of each transit station is also included.

In an area within a half-mile (0.5 mi) of each transit station, the 10 transit stops in downtown San Diego have the highest average residential densities in the San Diego region. Other areas with high average residential densities within a half-mile (0.5 mile) of a transit station are along the Green Line in Mission Valley (Rio Vista, Mission Valley Center, Hazard Center, and Mission San Diego Transit Stations); on the Blue Line in the Chula Vista Urban Core (E

23 Thorne-Lyman, Yake, Nemirow, & Fogarty, February 2013 24 Strategic Economics, October 2014 25 Hook, Lotshaw, & Weinstocke,, September 2013 26 Kolko, February 2011 27 Ibid.

28 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Street and H Street Transit Stations); Barrio Logan Station (Blue Line) and 25th Street / Commercial Transit Station (Orange Line); and, Middletown and Washington Street Transit Stations (Green Line). Other areas with high residential density around 0.5 miles of a transit station are: 8th Street, Palomar St., and Beyer Blvd Transit Stations on the Blue Line; 70th Street, La Mesa Blvd, Arnele Ave, and Santee Town Center Transit Stations along the Green Line / Orange Line. In North County, Oceanside Transit Center, Carlsbad Village, and the El Camino Real Transit Station are also areas surrounded by higher residential density.

Existing Employment Density

Employment densities within 0.5 miles of a transit station can help measure the number of people that currently work near a transit station. For this report, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to estimate the number of people working within 0.5 miles of each transit station in the San Diego region. Figure X shows the average employment density within one-half mile (0.5 mi) of each station. Figure 15 shows the average residential density within one-half mile (0.5 mi) of each station. Figures 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21 present the average residential density within one-half mile (0.5 mi) of each station, by transit line. The total population within one-half mile (0.5 mi) of each transit station is also included.

In an area within 0.5 miles of each transit station, the 10 transit stops in downtown San Diego have the highest average employment densities in the San Diego region. Other areas with high employment densities within 0.5 miles of a transit station are along the Green Line in (Hazard Center, SDSU, Grossmont Center, Mission Valley Center, and Rio Vista). The Sorrento Valley Station along the COASTER also has higher employment density within 0.5 miles of the transit station. Employment densities on the Blue Line and Orange Line are lower than most stations on the Green Line.

Other major job centers, including University City, Mira Mesa, Sorrento Valley, San Marcos, Carlsbad, and Chula Vista are not currently served by high-quality transit. The future Mid-Coast Trolley Extension will connect University City to downtown San Diego, and will allow more people in the San Diego to get to work on the Trolley. People who work near a transit station are more likely than people who live near a station to commute by transit, and employment density is much more highly correlated with transit ridership than is residential density.28

Existing and Planned Transit Service

The existing frequency, number of stations, and station spacing all influence the quality of transit service and the speed and convenience for people who use transit. A description of the major transit lines in San Diego and their current level of service is included below to provide insight on how transit service relates to transit-oriented communities in the San Diego region. The boardings and alightings at each of the transit stations is included on maps in Figure 22 and Figure 23, and presented in tables in Figure 24, Figure 25, Figure 26, Figure 27, and Figure 28.

Trolley - Blue Line

The Blue Line provides access from downtown San Diego to San Ysidro, and serves areas in San Diego, National City, Chula Vista, and Imperial Beach and people traveling to and from Mexico. The Blue Line began operating in 1981 and is San Diego’s oldest transit line. The Blue Line has 7.5 minute headways during peak weekday hours

28Kolko, February 2011

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 29 SANDAG

and 15 minutes during other service times.29 It is 15.7 miles long and has 18 stations, 6 of which are in downtown San Diego. Stations are close together, ranging from 0.16 miles apart to 1.99 miles apart, with an average spacing of 0.83 miles apart.30

On an average weekday the Blue Line carries approximately 25,820 people on northbound trains and 23,337 people on southbound trains. The San Ysidro Station has the highest average total of weekday boarding or alighting in the San Diego Region. A total of 10,366 people board northbound Blue Line Trains at San Ysidro, and 7,687 people alighting southbound trains on an average weekday (See: Figure 24).

Trolley - Orange Line

The Orange Line provides access from El Cajon Transit Center to downtown San Diego, and serves areas in El Cajon, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, and Southeastern San Diego. The Orange Line has 15 minute headways during the day on weekdays (approximately 5am to 8pm). On the weekends the Orange Line has 30 minute headways, except during mid-day when headways are 15 minutes. During other off-peak service hours the Orange Line also has 30 minute headways.31 The Orange Line is 17.1 miles long and has 19 stops, 7 of which are in downtown San Diego. Stations are close together, ranging from 0.16 to 2.23 miles apart, with an average spacing of 0.86 miles apart.32

On an average weekday the Orange Line carries approximately 16,799 people on westbound trains and 16,742 people on eastbound trains. Outside of downtown, the El Cajon Transit Center is the busiest station, followed by Grossmont Transit Center, Lemon Grove Depot, and Euclid Avenue (See: Figure 25)

Trolley - Green Line

The Green Line provides access from downtown San Diego to Santee and connects to Middletown and Washington Street Stations, Old Town Transit Center, Mission Valley, San Diego State University, Alvarado Medical Center, La Mesa, El Cajon, and Santee. The Green Line has 15 minute headways during peak weekday hours and during midday weekends and 30 minutes during other service times.33 It is approximately 24 miles long and has 28 stations, 5 of which are in downtown San Diego. Stations are close together, ranging from 0.24 miles apart to 2.19 miles apart, with an average spacing of 0.86 miles apart.34

On an average weekday the Green Line carries approximately 19,985 people on northbound trains and 19,836 people on eastbound trains. The Old Town Transit Center is a major transfer point on the Green Line. Other busy stations include the SDSU Transit Center, El Cajon Transit Center, Fashion Valley Transit Center, and Grossmont Transit Center (See: Figure 26).

29MTS Map and Timetable, 2014 30San Diego Regional Transit Ridership Data, SANDAG 2014 31 MTS Map and Timetable, 2014 32 SANDAG 2014 Regional Ridership Data 33 MTS Map and Timetable, 2014 34 SANDAG 2014 Regional Ridership Data

30 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

and 15 minutes during other service times.29 It is 15.7 miles long and has 18 stations, 6 of which are in downtown COASTER San Diego. Stations are close together, ranging from 0.16 miles apart to 1.99 miles apart, with an average spacing of 0.83 miles apart.30 The COASTER is a commuter rail line that provides a connection from the northern coastal areas of San Diego County, connecting Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Solana Beach to Sorrento Valley and downtown San On an average weekday the Blue Line carries approximately 25,820 people on northbound trains and 23,337 Diego. There are 8 stops and it operates primarily during weekday peak periods, with additional weekend and people on southbound trains. The San Ysidro Station has the highest average total of weekday boarding or holiday service. Since the COASTER is primarily commuter oriented, trains run as frequently as 30 minutes apart alighting in the San Diego Region. A total of 10,366 people board northbound Blue Line Trains at San Ysidro, and during peak times on weekdays, but there is limited service during off-peak hours.35 The COASTER extends nearly 7,687 people alighting southbound trains on an average weekday (See: Figure 24). 41 miles, and traveling the entire Coaster route takes about an hour. The stations are spaced between 2.75 – 15.3 miles apart, with an average spacing of 5.1 miles between stations.36 Santa Fe Depot is the busiest COASTER Trolley - Orange Line station, followed by Oceanside Transit Center, Sorrento Valley Station, and Old Town Transit Center (See: Figure 27). The Orange Line provides access from El Cajon Transit Center to downtown San Diego, and serves areas in El Cajon, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, and Southeastern San Diego. The Orange Line has 15 minute headways during the SPRINTER day on weekdays (approximately 5am to 8pm). On the weekends the Orange Line has 30 minute headways, except during mid-day when headways are 15 minutes. During other off-peak service hours the Orange Line also The SPRINTER provides transit service along the State Route 78 (SR-78) corridor in North County, providing a has 30 minute headways.31 The Orange Line is 17.1 miles long and has 19 stops, 7 of which are in downtown San connection between Oceanside and Escondido, and serving San Marcos and Vista. The SPRINTER has 15 stations Diego. Stations are close together, ranging from 0.16 to 2.23 miles apart, with an average spacing of 0.86 miles and provides service to Cal State University, San Marcos and Palomar College. The SPRINTER is 21.9 miles long. apart.32 Stations are spaced between 0.76 – 2.61 miles apart, with an average spacing of 1.37 miles.37 The SPRINTER operates on 30 minute headways on weekdays, and during peak weekend service hours. Off-peak weekend On an average weekday the Orange Line carries approximately 16,799 people on westbound trains and 16,742 headways are 60 minutes.38 On an average weekday, 4,731 people board westbound trains, and 4,668 people people on eastbound trains. Outside of downtown, the El Cajon Transit Center is the busiest station, followed by board eastbound SPRINTER trains. The busiest stations on the SPRINTER line are Oceanside Transit Center, Grossmont Transit Center, Lemon Grove Depot, and Euclid Avenue (See: Figure 25) Escondido Transit Center, Vista Transit Center, and Palomar College Station (See: Figure 28).

Trolley - Green Line Mid-City Rapid Bus

The Green Line provides access from downtown San Diego to Santee and connects to Middletown and The Mid-City Rapid Bus provides high-speed, limited stop transit service between San Diego State University and Washington Street Stations, Old Town Transit Center, Mission Valley, San Diego State University, Alvarado Medical Downtown San Diego along El Cajon Boulevard and Park Boulevard. The route provides North Park, City Heights, Center, La Mesa, El Cajon, and Santee. The Green Line has 15 minute headways during peak weekday hours and and College Area residents, students, workers, and visitors with connections to reliable connections to downtown. during midday weekends and 30 minutes during other service times.33 It is approximately 24 miles long and has 28 stations, 5 of which are in downtown San Diego. Stations are close together, ranging from 0.24 miles apart to The route covers 10 miles and has 17 stops. Busses run every 10 minutes during weekday peak hours and every 15 2.19 miles apart, with an average spacing of 0.86 miles apart.34 minutes during weekday off-peak hours and on weekends. The Mid-City Rapid Bus includes enhanced stations, technology integration, and street improvements. Busses will travel on both dedicated bus lanes and shared travel On an average weekday the Green Line carries approximately 19,985 people on northbound trains and 19,836 lanes improved by transit signal priority. The Mid-City Rapid Bus replaced an existing local bus route.39 people on eastbound trains. The Old Town Transit Center is a major transfer point on the Green Line. Other busy stations include the SDSU Transit Center, El Cajon Transit Center, Fashion Valley Transit Center, and Grossmont Mid-Coast Corridor Transit Project Transit Center (See: Figure 26). The Mid-Coast Corridor Transit Project will extend light rail service from the Old Town Transit Station to University City, serving major activity centers such as Old Town, University of California, San Diego (UCSD), and Westfield UTC. The Trolley extension route proposes 9 new stations (Tecolote Road, Clairemont Drive, Balboa Avenue, Nobel Drive, VA Medical Center, Pepper Canyon, Voigt Drive, Executive Drive, and the Terminus Station at Westfield UTC

29MTS Map and Timetable, 2014 30San Diego Regional Transit Ridership Data, SANDAG 2014 35 NCTD Map and Timetable, 2014 31 MTS Map and Timetable, 2014 36 SANDAG 2014 Regional Ridership Data 32 SANDAG 2014 Regional Ridership Data 37 SANDAG 2014 Regional Ridership Data 33 MTS Map and Timetable, 2014 38 NCTD Map and Timetable, 2014 34 SANDAG 2014 Regional Ridership Data 39 Mid-City Fact Sheet

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 31 SANDAG

transit center. Construction is anticipated to begin in 2015, with service starting early 2019.40 The Mid-Coast Corridor Transit Project is forecasted to have 33,800 average weekday trips during its opening year in 2019. In 2035, it is forecasted to have nearly 40,300 average weekday trips.41

South Bay Bus Rapid Transit

South Bay Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) will provide a rapid and reliable transit from the Otay Mesa Port of Entry to Downtown San Diego via esastern Chula Vista. The South Bay BRT will include 11 stations along the 21-mile route, connecting residents to employment and activity centers in downtown and the South Bay. The route travels along State Route 125 from the Otay Mesa border crossing, then west through eastern Chula Vista, head north on Interstate 805 utilizaing the High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes, and then travel west on State Route 94 (SR-94) into downtown San Diego. The South Bay BRT will utilize transit only lanes, traffic signal priority, limited station stops, and real-time passenger information. Service along the corridor will be provided at 10-minute frequencies during peak commute hours, and every 15 minutes during the midday.42

The Role of Local Bus Systems

The Blue Line, Orange Line, and Green Line (Trolley), COASTER and SPRINTER are all supported by local bus service operated by MTS and NCTD. Local bus provides additional connectivity to and from transit stations. High- frequency and peak period service can help to provide transportation connections to and from home and work. Transit-oriented communities depend on connections and the extensive network of local bus service helps provide transportation choices. San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan will identify additional improvements to local bus service in the San Diego region to increase access to jobs and support the creation of transportation-oriented communities.

Mobility and Connectivity

Connections and mobility options to and from transit stations provide important transportation choices to more people who live and work near transit. Walking and biking are essential to the success of transit-oriented communities. Car sharing and bike sharing, carpooling, and other transportation-demand measures also play an important role expanding mobility choices and providing transportation connections to and from transit stations.

40 Mid-Coast Trolley Fact Sheet 41 Mid-Coast Corridor Transit Project 42 South Bay BRT Fact Sheet

32 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 14 - 2014 Regional Transit System FIGURE 6.1 HERE

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXTSANDAG REPORT 2050 Regional Transportation Plan 33 6-5 SANDAG

Figure 15 - Households per Residential Acre within One-Half Mile (2010)

View Interactive Map Online: http://cdb. io/10teCwB

7.0 50.0 HH / Res. Ac. HH / Res. Ac.

34 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 16- Jobs per Acre within One-Half Mile (2010)

View Interactive Map Online: http://cdb. io/1x73T8R

4.0 110.0 Jobs / Ac. Jobs / Ac.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 35 SANDAG

Figure 17 - Blue Line Demographic Profile

Blue Line Profile within 0.5 miles of Transit Station Households per Station Population Number of Jobs Jobs per Acre Jobs / Housing Ratio Residential Acre

Civic Center Station 20,031 37.6 43,541 86.7 2.3 Fifth Avenue Station 17,869 37.5 40,924 81.5 2.2 Diego America Plaza Station 12,669 35.4 43,689 97.8 2.8 San

City College Station 12,938 33.8 22,567 44.9 1.3 Park & Market Station 14,963 32.6 17,958 35.8 1.1

Downtown 12th & Imperial Transit Center 9,782 28.5 7,865 16.0 0.6 Bayfront / E Street Station 7,074 11.6 3,432 6.8 0.6 H Street Station 6,099 9.6 4,047 8.1 0.8 Barrio Logan Station 4,096 8.2 3,501 8.3 1.0 Palomar Street Station 4,676 7.5 3,708 7.4 1.0 8 Street Station 2,129 7.2 1,538 3.2 0.5

Stations Harborside Station 4,843 6.7 1,617 3.8 0.6

Beyer Blvd Station 9,738 6.1 1,749 3.5 0.6 Other 24StreetStation 1,928 5.8 4,601 9.2 1.6 All Iris Avenue Station 7,704 5.2 1,318 2.6 0.5 Pacific Fleet Station 6,079 4.7 1,262 3.0 0.6 Palm Avenue Station 3,852 4.5 2,038 4.1 0.9 San Ysidro / International Border 0 1.4 0 2.4 1.7

36 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 18 - Green Line Demographic Profile

Green Line Profile within 0.5 miles of Transit Station Housholeds per Station Population Residential Acre Number of Jobs Jobs per Acre Jobs / Housing Ratio Gaslamp Quarter Station 8,948 46.6 13,448 32.2 1.5 Seaport Village Station 10,162 37.5 21,780 59.9 2.1 Diego

Convention Center Station 10,255 36.9 21,132 52.8 2.1 San

Santa Fe Depot 11,178 35.4 43,387 107.0 3.9 County Center/Little Italy Station 9,670 30.3 38,252 95.2 4.0

Downtwon 12th & Imperial Transit Center 9,782 28.5 7,865 16.0 0.8 Rio Vista Station 3,670 19.6 7,384 14.8 2.0 Mission Valley Center Station 4,466 17.3 7,805 15.7 1.7 Hazard Center Station 2,758 9.1 8,673 17.7 3.1 Middletown Station 3,052 7.8 3,739 7.5 1.2 Washington St Station 2,540 7.2 2,952 5.9 1.2 Mission San Diego Station 4,171 7.2 3,283 6.9 0.8 Fashion Valley Transit Center 2,858 7.1 7,413 14.8 2.6 70th Street Station 6,879 7.1 2,511 5.0 0.4 Arnele Avenue Station 3,582 7.0 4,653 9.3 1.3 Santee Town Center Station 2,125 6.8 3,550 8.1 1.7 Stations Morena/Linda Vista Station 2,491 6.6 5,316 11.8 2.1

Other Grossmont Transit Center 3,770 6.1 7,978 15.9 2.1

All Amaya Drive Station 4,517 5.6 1,671 3.3 0.4 Fenton Parkway Station 3,405 4.6 5,972 11.9 1.8 El Cajon Transit Center 4,886 4.5 2,234 4.5 0.5 SDSU Transit Center 6,654 4.5 8,082 16.1 1.2 Alvarado Station 4,431 4.0 1,805 3.6 0.4 Old Town Transit Center 942 3.7 5,059 10.5 5.4 Qualcomm Stadium Station 2,065 3.4 5,666 11.4 2.7 Grantville Station 1,528 2.8 4,151 8.7 2.7 Gillespie Field Station 505 2.4 2,862 5.7 5.7

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 37 SANDAG

Figure 19 - Orange Line Demographic Profile

Orange Line Profile within 0.5 miles of Transit Station Housholeds per Station Population Number of Jobs Jobs per Acre Jobs / Housing Ratio Residential Acre

Civic Center Station 20,031 37.6 43,541 86.7 2.2 Fifth Avenue Station 17,869 37.5 40,924 81.5 2.3 Diego America Plaza Station 12,669 35.4 43,689 97.8 3.4 San Santa Fe Station 11,050 35.1 43,382 108.0 3.9 City College Station 12,938 33.8 22,567 44.9 1.7 Park & Market Station 14,963 32.6 17,958 35.8 1.2 Downtwon 12th & Imperial Transit Center 9,782 28.5 7,865 16.0 0.8 25th / Commercial St Station 12,826 8.2 1,021 2.0 0.1 La Mesa Blvd Station 5,449 6.7 4,763 9.5 0.9 32nd St/Commercial Station 11,755 6.6 1,003 2.0 0.1 Grossmont Transit Center 3,770 6.1 7,978 15.9 2.1 Amaya Drive Station 4,517 5.6 1,671 3.3 0.4 Stations

Spring Street 4,987 5.3 567 1.1 0.1 Lemon Grove Depot 4,529 5.1 2,303 4.6 0.5 Other

All Euclid Trolley Station 8,531 4.9 899 1.8 0.1 47th St Station 7,751 4.9 845 1.7 0.1 El Cajon Transit Center 4,886 4.5 2,234 4.5 0.5 Encanto/62nd St Station 7,391 4.1 264 0.5 0.0 Massachusetts Ave Station 5,460 3.5 295 0.6 0.1

38 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 20 - COASTER Demographic Profile

COASTER Profile within 0.5 miles of Transit Station Households per Station Population Number of Jobs Jobs per Acre Jobs / Housing Ratio Residential Acre Santa Fe Station 11,050 35.1 43,382 108.0 3.9 Oceanside Transit Center 3,908 9.1 3,053 8.8 0.8 Carlsbad Village Station 4,255 7.2 4,045 10.0 1.0 Carlsbad Poinsettia Station 2,075 4.2 852 2.3 0.4 Encinitas Station 3,001 4.2 3,397 7.9 1.1 Old Town Station 866 3.7 4,911 10.6 5.7 Solana Beach Station 2,669 3.3 2,048 5.4 0.8 Sorrento Valley Station 237 3.0 6,792 13.5 28.7

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 39 SANDAG

Figure 21 - SPRINTER Demographic Profile

SPRINTER Profile within 0.5 miles of Transit Station Households per Station Population Number of Jobs Jobs per Acre Jobs / Housing Ratio Residential Acre Oceanside Transit Center 4,234 8.7 2,972 8.5 0.7 El Camino Real Station 1,773 7.0 747 1.5 0.4 Nordahl Rd 1,270 5.9 4,595 9.2 3.6 Coast Hwy Station 3,859 5.9 986 2.4 0.3 Vista Transit Center 7,844 5.5 2,043 4.1 0.3 Melrose Station 3,410 4.7 1,028 2.1 0.3 San Marcos Civic Center 4,954 4.5 3,575 7.1 0.7 Escondido Transit Center 1,767 3.9 3,560 7.1 2.0 Cal State San Marcos 2,426 3.7 1,716 3.4 0.7 Crouch St Station 3,258 3.3 784 1.6 0.2 College Blvd Station 3,480 3.2 2,035 4.1 0.6 Rancho del Oro Station 1,942 3.1 642 1.3 0.3 Vista Civic Center 4,682 3.0 827 1.7 0.2 Buena Creek Station 3,248 2.9 731 1.5 0.2 Palomar College Station 1,226 1.8 3,109 6.2 2.5

40 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 22 - 2013 Average Weekday Boardings

View Interactive Map Online: http://cdb. io/1t9XyoI

450 17,500 Avg. Total Weekday Boardings

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 41 SANDAG

Figure 23 - 2013 Average Weekday Alightings

View Interactive Map Online: http://cdb. io/1t9XyoI

1,250 Avg. Weekday Alightings 17,250

42 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 24 - Blue LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station

Blue Line Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings Northbound - Northbound - Southbound - Southbound - Station Total Boardings Total Alightings Total Boardings Total Alightings

Civic Center Station 253 1,289 1,540 165 Fifth Avenue Station 347 1,643 1,706 296 America Plaza Station 37 1,860 1,839 16 City College Station 705 3,147 2,696 687 Park & Market Station 653 908 905 873

Downtown San Diego 12th & Imperial Transit Center 1,831 5,840 4,686 2,018 Bayfront / E Street Station 1,204 964 860 1,206 H Street Station 1,500 2,036 1,778 1,505 Barrio Logan Station 277 475 453 346 Palomar Street Station 1,963 2,518 2,416 2,134 8 Street Station 699 798 757 683 Harborside Station 253 466 450 275 z Beyer Blvd Station 1,142 552 485 998 24StreetStation 800 1,238 1,020 822 All Other Stations Iris Avenue Station 2,139 1,443 1,167 1,991 Pacific Fleet Station 335 223 222 339 Palm Avenue Station 1,418 783 755 1,407 San Ysidro / International Border 10,367 6 0 7,687

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 43 SANDAG

Figure 25 - Green LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station

Green Line Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings Westbound - Westbound - Eastbound - Eastbound - Total Boardings Total Alightings Total Boardings Total Alightings Station Gaslamp Quarter Station 245 962 919 286 Seaport Village Station 339 449 452 372 Convention Center Station 227 493 459 248 Santa Fe Depot 463 3,078 2,689 427 County Center/Little Italy Station 457 735 669 524

Downtwon San Diego 12th & Imperial Transit Center 39 4,010 4,882 2 Rio Vista Station 408 274 278 382 Mission Valley Center Station 594 496 504 615 Hazard Center Station 566 350 350 575 Middletown Station 196 165 163 201 Washington St Station 444 258 281 400 Mission San Diego Station 315 150 165 267 Fashion Valley Transit Center 1,537 1,498 1,369 1,645 70th Street Station 378 227 262 341 Arnele Avenue Station 576 129 155 486 Santee Town Center Station 1,174 1 0 1,128 Morena/Linda Vista Station 563 432 453 507 Grossmont Transit Center 1,301 648 275 1,300

All Other Stations Amaya Drive Station 329 148 73 270 Fenton Parkway Station 445 265 255 430 El Cajon Transit Center 1,616 654 693 1,379 SDSU Transit Center 1,996 1,403 1,290 2,020 Alvarado Station 733 138 157 621 Old Town Transit Center 3,789 2,357 2,358 4,146 Qualcomm Stadium Station 164 85 100 161 Grantville Station 816 541 539 812 Gillespie Field Station 277 41 46 291

44 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 26 - Orange LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station

Orange Line Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings Westbound - Westbound - Eastbound - Eastbound - Station Total Boardings Total Alightings Total Boardings Total Alightings

Civic Center Station 278 1,137 1,096 350 Fifth Avenue Station 387 1,443 1,230 567 America Plaza Station 139 695 697 134 Santa Fe Station 14 1,120 1,674 1 City College Station 696 2,281 1,817 704 Park & Market Station 658 750 648 672 Downtwon San Diego 12th & Imperial Transit Center 1,683 3,811 4,021 1,538 25th / Commercial St Station 939 411 465 909 La Mesa Blvd Station 798 570 557 744 32nd St/Commercial Station 763 382 416 726 Grossmont Transit Center 1,678 226 262 1,424 Amaya Drive Station 317 65 68 278 Spring Street 1,683 3,811 4,021 1,538 Lemon Grove Depot 1,385 918 877 1,400

All Other Stations Euclid Trolley Station 1,912 1,451 1,381 1,964 47th St Station 428 231 260 414 El Cajon Transit Center 2,489 2 0 2,870 Encanto/62nd St Station 1,194 537 534 1,047 Massachusetts Ave Station 414 256 255 378

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 45 SANDAG

Figure 27 - COASTER FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station

COASTER Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings Southbound - Southbound - Northbound - Northbound - Station Total Boardings Total Alightings Total Boardings Total Alightings Santa Fe Station 0 1,323 1,241 0 Oceanside Transit Center 920 0 0 865 Carlsbad Village Station 624 7 26 588 Carlsbad Poinsettia Station 485 17 17 494 Encinitas Station 420 71 57 405 Old Town Station 27 726 676 13 Solana Beach Station 153 81 67 134 Sorrento Valley Station 230 634 619 204

Figure 28 - SPRINTER FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station

SPRINTER Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings Westbound - Westbound - Eastbound - Eastbound - Station Total Boardings Total Alightings Total Boardings Total Alightings Oceanside Transit Center 0 1,236 1,171 0 El Camino Real Station 119 247 245 110 Nordahl Rd 204 57 66 214 Coast Hwy Station 58 198 203 31 Vista Transit Center 539 914 923 539 Melrose Station 101 173 177 106 San Marcos Civic Center 275 137 142 254 Escondido Transit Center 1,694 13 14 1,654 Cal State San Marcos 277 163 155 296 Crouch St Station 174 273 290 148 College Blvd Station 221 351 348 219 Rancho del Oro Station 76 128 136 75 Vista Civic Center 225 150 142 203 Buena Creek Station 231 167 174 231 Palomar College Station 536 522 481 588

46 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

SECTION 5. LOCAL MARKET READINESS AND DEVELOPMENT PROTOTYPES

This report evaluates market conditions and development potential in transit- oriented communities in the San Diego region to shed light on how development is likely to play out in different parts of the San Diego region.

Station Area Market Readiness

Transit access is one factor that can help make a location more attractive for new development. However, the introduction of new transit alone does not fundamentally change existing real estate market conditions. In a station area with a weak real estate market, there may be insufficient demand to support new, higher-intensity development even with the introduction of transit, especially if the station area is a considerable distance from an employment center or other major activity node. In other station areas, there may be a strong demand for new development but changes to local development standards may be required in order for development to occur near transit stations. In addition to real estate market strength, studies of development patterns near transit have found that the availability of appropriate development opportunity sites and local connectivity, infrastructure, and place- making needs can also affect the potential for development in any given transit station area.

Characteristics of San Diego’s residential market are discussed below, including overall regional trends and the differences among local submarkets for both the rental and ownership housing markets.

Rental Market

The San Diego apartment market is tight, with low vacancy rates, rising rents, and an increasing amount of development in the pipeline. The average rental rate in mid-2014 was approximately $1,400 a month, up over 4 percent from a year ago, while rents for newer units (built in the 2000s) currently exceed $2,000 a month. Vacancies are estimated in the 3 to 4 percent range, well below the 5 percent threshold that is commonly considered an indicator of a healthy market.43 The market absorbed an estimated 930 units between September 2013 and March 2014,44 and CoStar (a commercial real estate data vendor) is tracking another 6,000 units that are under construction and projected to be completed in 2014 and 2015. Brokers report that the region’s strong rental market is being driven by a constrained supply due to the limited development that occurred during the recession; the high cost of purchasing a house, especially in many North County coastal areas; and growth in employment and population, particularly in the number of young adults.

Developers have found that renters are willing to pay a premium for proximity to a rail transit station. According to developers who participated in the focus groups and follow-up interviews, apartments located in close proximity to a rail transit station can command a price premium. In some markets particularly in the Eastern and Southern Suburbs where rents tend to be lower, proximity to a transit station may help make a project financially feasible that would otherwise not be.

43 Cassidy Turley, May 2014 44 Ibid.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 47 SANDAG

However, there is significant variation in market strength and development activity across the region. Figure 29 shows average rents and number of units in the pipeline by Major Statistical Area and market area, as tracked by CoStar. The highest rent areas are concentrated in North City, Central San Diego, and North County West, while significant new apartment development is underway in North City, Central, and North County East. In general, the development in North County East and the East and South Suburban MSAs tend to be garden and low-rise apartments (1-3 stories), while projects under construction in North City and Central include a number of mid-rise (5 to 6 story) buildings. No new units are under construction in North County West, although a 636-unit project is proposed in Carlsbad; this may reflect the regulatory constraints in cities along the North Coast.

Ownership Market

Following rapid prices increases in 2012 and 2013, home prices appear to be stabilizing in 2014. Prices increased rapidly in 2012 and 2013 – on the order of 20 percent or more a year – but appear to be stabilizing in 2014. In July 2014, the median sales price in San Diego County was $522,000 for a single- family home and $359,000 for a condominium. Prices remain below the pre-2008 peak, when the median single-family home prices reached nearly $600,000 and median condo prices were in the $400,000 range.

On a per-square-foot basis, condominiums and single-family homes remain similarly priced and well below pre-2008 levels, suggesting that new condominium development will be limited in the short- to medium-term. In July 2014, the median per-square-foot price was $300 for condominiums and $288 for single- family homes, approximately 20 to 30 percent lower than the pre-2008 peak. The relative affordability of existing single-family homes suggests that buyers will continue to prefer single- family homes in the short- to mid-term, limiting the market for new condo development (which is much more expensive to develop on a per-square-foot basis). Indeed, while there are several early-stage proposals for new condominium development in downtown San Diego are starting to emerge, very little condominium development is occurring anywhere in the region.

The strongest condominium markets are located along the North Coast and in Downtown. The zip codes with the highest condominium prices by zip code in 2013 were on the coast, North City, and in Downtown. Condominium prices to the south and east, where transit access is more concentrated, tend to be lower.

While condominium development activity remains minimal, some development of townhouse and small-lot single family homes is occurring in more suburban locations. For example, townhouse projects were recently proposed or broke ground in Chula Vista, La Jolla, and downtown Oceanside.

Research has found that single-family homes and condominiums in the San Diego metro area experience a significant price premium associated with proximity to rail transit. A recent series of studies on property values around San Diego’s Trolley stations found that all else being equal, a condominium located within a quarter-mile of a station was worth 16 percent more than a condominium located a mile away from a station, while a single-family home located within a quarter-mile of a station was worth 6 percent more than one located a mile away.45 Property value premiums were generally higher near transit stations located in more

45 Duncan, TRB, 2008

48 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

pedestrian-oriented neighborhoods46 and in higher-density zoning districts.47 This is consistent with other major metropolitan markets.

Office Market

The San Diego office market is gradually recovering from the recession, driven by employment growth in government, telecommunications, technology, health care, professional and business services, and finance. Average office rents have increased steadily over the last two years, from a low of $2.10 per square foot per month (full service) in 2012, to $2.24 per square foot in the second quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, vacancy rates have also decreased slowly but consistently, to 13.4 percent in the county as a whole in the second quarter of 2014, down from a high of nearly 18 percent in 2009. Brokerage firms have observed demand from the government sector and firms in the telecommunications, technology, health care, professional and business services, and finance industries driving leasing activity. Relative to the overall size of the regional office market (82 million square feet), the amount of new development under construction is relatively small (1.2 million square feet); however, significantly more is proposed.

The strongest-performing office markets are concentrated in North City and North County West, followed by Downtown. Figure 30 shows office inventory and performance by office market areas as reported by Colliers International, organized by SANDAG’s major statistical areas (MSAs). Sixty-one percent of the region’s office inventory is located in North City, which also has the highest rents, lowest vacancy rates, and most new office development in the pipeline. North County West also includes several premier office locations, including Carlsbad and the I-5 Corridor. Downtown San Diego, which accounts for about 12 percent of the region’s office inventory, posted slightly lower rents ($2.22 per square foot per month) and a higher vacancy rate (19 percent) in the second quarter of 2014 compared to the regional average. The region’s traded industry clusters, including biomedical devices and products, biotech and pharmaceuticals, information and communication tech, and publishing and marketing, are concentrated in the North County West and North City MSAs, with smaller amounts of employment in Downtown.

Markets to the east and south generally have lower rents and higher vacancy rates. The North County East, East County, and South County office markets are significantly smaller, with much lower rents and higher vacancy rates.

Many of the region’s larger and higher-rent office markets currently have limited transit service, and development patterns that make providing frequent service challenging. Service to many of the major employment centers in North City and North County West, including Sorrento Valley, Torrey Pines, University Town Center (UTC), the I-5 Corridor, and Carlsbad, is limited to the Coaster, which provides limited service with long headways (30 to 45 minutes during commute hours, and one to three hours during mid-day and weekends). The Green Line provides more frequent service to Mission Valley. However, many of the region’s largest employment centers, including Sorrento Mesa, Kearny Mesa, the I-15 corridor, and most of the Carlsbad market, are not currently served by fixed- guideway transit. Moreover, the low employment densities and/or auto-oriented development patterns in places like Del Mar, La Jolla, Torrey Pines, Encinitas, Kearny Mesa, and Carlsbad make it challenging to provide efficient, high-frequency transit service to these areas.

46 Dunccan, January 2011 47 Duncan, 2011

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 49 SANDAG

Future transit investments could help support growth by mitigating congestion. Freeways and arterials in many major employment centers in North City and North County are already congested, and traffic is expected to worsen as population and employment continue to grow in UTC and other major nodes. Employers in Sorrento Valley, Torrey Pines, UTC, and other nearby job centers already run shuttles to the Sorrento Valley Coaster Station during commute hours. Planned transit investments such as the Mid-Coast Corridor have the potential to support future growth while mitigating congestion.

Conceptual Feasibility Analysis

A pro forma analysis was conducted to explore the impact of variable market conditions, local land use regulations, and transit and place-making investments on the feasibility of market- rate, multi-family development. The analysis tested the financial feasibility of four different building types in a variety of market conditions, and under different parking policies and impact fee levels. The affordable housing section describes the benefits and challenges of building affordable housing near transit, and builds on the development feasibility analysis to explore the potential to use value capture mechanisms to fund affordable TOD. Both analyses are informed by comments received at developer focus groups hosted by SANDAG in July 2014.

Market-Rate Housing

The development feasibility analysis tested four building prototypes, selected to represent a range of densities, construction types, and parking solutions. The prototypes include:

• Townhomes: Townhouses with attached garages; 18 dwelling unit per acre.

• 3-4 Story Podium: 3-4 stories of residential over tuck-under podium parking, with 10,000 square feet of ground floor retail development; 80-100 dwelling units per acre.

• 5-6 Story Wrapped: 5-6 stories of residential development wrapped around an interior structured parking garage; 100 dwelling units per acre.

• 15 Story Tower: 15-story residential tower with subterranean parking; 190 dwelling units per acre.

The prototypes were tested for financial feasibility using a static pro forma model, which calculated the minimum (or “threshold”) rental rate or condominium price required in order for a developer to achieve a reasonable rate of return after paying for all development costs, including land, construction costs, and soft costs (i.e., entitlement costs, architecture and engineering, city fees, sales and marketing, etc.). The threshold rents and prices were then compared against actual rents and prices in different parts of the region in order to determine the likelihood and timing of development. Static pro forma models are frequently used for planning purposes, because they test the impacts of different regulatory policies and other changes on feasibility. The Economic Context Report for this project for more detail on the methodology and key assumptions used in this analysis.48

The analysis also tested the sensitivity of development feasibility to different policy levers, including:

48 Strategic Economics 2014

50 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

• Standard v. smart growth parking ratios: The 3-4 story, 5-6 story, and 15-story prototypes were tested using both standard suburban and reduced smart growth parking ratios. Standard suburban parking ratios were estimated based on Parking Strategies for Smart Growth, published by SANDAG in 2010. Smart growth parking ratios were modeled based on SANDAG’s suggested smart growth parking ratios, which are intended to reflect the reduced demand for parking in transit-oriented development.

• Varying impact fee levels: The Building Industry Association (BIA) of San Diego’s annual fee survey shows that impact fees for residential development vary widely across the region by jurisdiction.49 In addition, the City of San Diego charges variable impact fees in different community planning areas, reflecting the variable costs of mitigating the impacts of new development in existing urbanized areas and providing new public facilities in master planned communities. The three impact fee levels tested are intended to be generally representative of the range of impact fees charged in different places around the region and within the City of San Diego, rather than specific to any location.

Note that this analysis is based on generalized assumptions about building types, rent levels, developer return, and costs based on a snapshot of current market conditions in the region. In reality, market conditions are dynamic, and highly dependent on changing economic conditions at the local, regional, and national levels. Moreover, each site and development project has unique circumstances, and each developer has his or her own financial objectives. These nuances are not possible to capture in this type of analysis. Rather than being a predictive model of the future or a test of the feasibility of any specific project or site, this analysis is a planning-level tool intended to illustrate the impact of variable market conditions, local regulatory decisions, and regional transit and place- making investments on the potential feasibility of different building types.

Figures 31 and 32 show the rent and sale price thresholds estimated for each building type, by parking scenario and impact fee level. Figure 33 shows the projected timing of development feasibility in each market area, based on comparing the estimated thresholds with the actual rents and condominium prices and a review of apartment projects that are under construction or were recently completed. Note that Figure 33 is not intended to be predictive, but rather to illustrate differences among market areas. In addition to financial feasibility, many other conditions affect where new development occurs. For example, the analysis does not take zoning for each market area into account; not all building prototypes may be allowed in all locations. In addition, most developers specialize in particular types of development (e.g. townhouses versus multi-family) and are likely to select sites based not only on baseline feasibility, but more importantly, on where they can expect the highest returns.

The projected timing of development feasibility is characterized in Figure 33 as follows:

• Short-term: Current rents or sales prices are sufficient to justify new development (in real terms adjusted for inflation).

• Medium-term: New construction could be justified with a 5 to 10 percent increase in prices, and may in some cases already be feasible in close proximity to a transit station. As discussed above, research has found that condominiums located within a quarter-mile of a rail transit station in San Diego County are worth 16 percent more those located a mile away from a station, while single- family homes located within

49 BIA, 2014

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 51 SANDAG

a quarter-mile of a station experience a 6 percent price premium compared to homes located a mile away. Research on apartment values is more limited, but San Diego developers have found that rents are also willing to pay a significant premium for proximity to rail stations.

• Long-term: Significant price increases (more than 10 percent, in real terms adjusted for inflation) are required in order to enable new development.

Benefits and Challenges of Locating Affordable Housing Near Transit

Locating affordable housing near transit stations can have a number of benefits for individual households and the region as a whole. Perhaps most importantly, households that live near transit can own fewer cars and drive them less, resulting in reduced transportation costs in addition to the savings from living in affordably priced housing. In addition, because low-income households generally own fewer cars and take transit more frequently than high- income households, providing affordable housing near transit can help support and stabilize transit ridership. Recognizing the importance of transit access for affordable housing, the California Tax Credit Allocation Committee (TCAC) provides additional points for proximity to fixed-guideway transit in the competitive scoring process through which low-income housing tax credits are awarded.

However, providing new affordable housing can be challenging, due to a number of factors some of which apply to the region as a whole, and some of which are specific to areas near transit. These factors include:

• High land costs: Affordable housing developers may not be able to compete with market-rate developers for sites near existing transit stations, where land prices are often higher than in other areas because of the value premium associated with proximity to transit. Land costs may also go up around planned transit corridors after the routes are announced but before they are built, due to speculation.

• Size of the affordability gap: As in other coastal California metropolitan areas, there is a significant gap between the amount that low- and moderate-income households can afford to pay for housing and the cost of construction. Figure 34 shows the gap between the rents required to achieve development feasibility for the different building prototypes, and the maximum affordable rent levels for very-low-, low-, and median-income households in the San Diego region. Because of the size of the gap, particularly for very-low-income households, significant subsidies are required to build affordable housing.

• Limited funding: Low-income housing tax credits are one of the most common sources for affordable housing development in California. However, the supply of tax credits is limited and the allocation process is highly competitive. Moreover, tax credits do not fully fund development; in order to make projects possible, affordable housing developers must typically cobble together funding from a number of different sources. Historically, affordable housing developers in the San Diego region and other parts of California relied heavily on funding from the redevelopment agencies’ Low and Moderate Income Housing Funds. Proposition 1C, a bond measure passed by voters in 2006, also provided significant funding for affordable housing development. However, Proposition 1C funding is now largely committed, and the state dissolved redevelopment in 2012. Adding to the challenge, recent state court rulings have eliminated the use of inclusionary zoning for rental housing, and are calling into question the long-term viability of requiring

52 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

inclusionary units for for-sale housing as well. As a result, local governments are increasingly turning to housing impact fees to fund affordable housing development; this funding source is further discussed below. Other funding sources such as the New Market Tax Credits (NMTC) Program and Housing Trust Fund (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development) are increasingly important.

• Restrictive zoning and other constraints: Local height and density limits, high parking ratios, and other regulatory requirements can make affordable as well as market-rate housing development more challenging.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 53 SANDAG

Figure 29 - Apartment Market Inventory, Pipeline Projects, and Rents by Major Statistical Area, Mid-2014Figure 12. Apartment Market Inventory, Pipeline Projects, and Rents by Major Statistical Area, Mid-2014 All Units* Units Built After 2000* Number of Units in the Pipeline Major Statistical Area/ Avg. Monthly Avg. Monthly Under Under City or Market Area Units Rent Units Rent Construction Proposed Renovation North City Del Mar 304 $1,938 20 $2,238 0 0 0 La Jolla/UTC 9,599 $1,930 3,830 $2,102 0 100 0 I-15 Corridor 14,520 $1,801 4,680 $2,169 729 0 0 Mission Valley 22,259 $1,663 6,027 $2,090 1,566 385 0 Poway 1,124 $1,367 0 N/A 0 0 0 Other 2,188 $1,572 0 N/A 0 0 0 Total 49,994 $1,745 14,557 $2,119 2,295 485 0

Central Downtown 5,979 $1,883 3,399 $2,261 1,444 685 230 Balboa Park/Univ. Heights 4,326 $1,200 82 $2,266 120 239 0 Coronado 572 $2,005 0 N/A 0 0 0 East San Diego 6,242 $1,222 325 $1,410 332 0 0 National City 2,439 $986 86 $1,753 0 0 0 Other 5,621 $1,269 125 $1,552 0 0 0 Total 25,179 $1,381 4,017 $2,159 1,896 924 230

North County West Carlsbad 4,411 $1,778 933 $2,207 0 636 0 Encinitas 1,352 $1,547 120 $2,336 0 0 0 Oceanside 8,992 $1,395 348 $1,950 0 0 0 Solana Beach 628 $1,546 0 N/A 0 0 0 Total 15,383 $1,524 1,401 $2,154 0 636 0

North County East Escondido 9,971 $1,186 387 $1,626 55 0 0 San Marcos 4,205 $1,420 1,671 $1,557 300 416 0 Vista 7,676 $1,324 657 $1,681 698 0 0 Other 1,403 $976 0 N/A 0 0 0 Total 23,255 $1,261 2,715 $1,597 1,053 416 0

East Suburban El Cajon 11,987 $1,126 116 $1,658 0 0 0 La Mesa 6,087 $1,324 527 $1,976 0 198 0 Lemon Grove 498 $951 0 N/A 80 0 0 Santee 1,949 $1,292 0 N/A 0 172 0 Other 5,871 $1,208 61 $1,250 0 0 0 Total 26,392 $1,199 704 $1,861 80 370 0

South Suburban Chula Vista 13,826 $1,332 2,815 $1,825 704 0 0 Imperial Beach 560 $1,218 0 N/A 0 0 0 Other 5,885 $1,356 1,418 $1,693 0 0 0 Total 20,271 $1,336 4,233 $1,781 704 0 0

Total, San Diego County 160,474 $1,455 27,627 $2,017 6,028 2,831 230 *Units tracked by CoStar; may not be inclusive of all rental units. Source: CoStar, 2014; Strategic Economics, 2014.

Economic Context Report -19- 54 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Figure 30 - Office Market Inventory, Pipeline Development, Rents, and Vacancy Rates by Major StatisticalFigure Area,14. Office Second Market QuarterInventory, 2014Pipeline Development, Rents, and Vacancy Rates by Major Statistical Area, Second Quarter 2014 Under Total Percent Construc- Avg. Total Major Statistical Area/ Inventory of Total tion (Sq. Proposed Rental Vacancy Office Market Area Bldgs (Sq. Ft.) Inventory Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) Rate* Rate North City Campus Point 8 907,719 1% 0 0 $2.47 32% Carmel Valley 70 5,055,442 6% 0 2,254,355 $3.50 13% Governor Park 19 903,516 1% 0 0 $2.21 19% Kearny Mesa 212 8,960,292 11% 0 722,000 $1.83 13% La Jolla 40 1,159,888 1% 0 0 $2.84 13% Miramar 51 1,387,361 2% 0 0 $1.49 20% Mission Valley 144 7,077,729 9% 0 375,830 $2.11 9% Rose Canyon/Morena 66 852,383 1% 0 11,397 $1.58 6% Sorrento Mesa 116 8,564,764 10% 614,464 1,943,610 $2.51 9% Sorrento Valley 14 360,931 0% 0 0 $2.17 10% Torrey Pines 11 857,524 1% 0 0 $3.86 25% University Town Center 39 4,931,150 6% 305,952 356,646 $3.29 10% I-15 Corridor Poway 65 1,237,171 2% 0 762,570 $2.01 5% Rancho Bernardo 102 5,374,395 7% 0 4,640,214 $2.34 11% Scripps Ranch 39 2,213,424 3% 0 615,500 $2.13 21% Total 996 49,843,689 61% 920,416 11,682,122 $2.44 12%

Central Downtown Office Market 58 10,172,525 12% 320,000 1,131,496 $2.22 19% Mission Gorge 15 302,042 0% 0 0 $1.27 12% Old Town/SA/PL** 126 2,360,312 3% 0 0 $2.18 9% Uptown 190 1,719,496 2% 0 0 $2.05 9% Total 389 14,554,375 18% 320,000 1,131,496 $2.17 16%

North County West Carlsbad 188 5,453,042 7% 0 553,623 $2.20 18% I-5 Corridor 85 1,612,097 2% 0 79,588 $2.93 12% Oceanside 80 1,222,174 1% 0 332,800 $1.80 16% Total 353 8,287,313 10% 0 966,011 $2.28 17%

North County East Escondido 168 1,608,661 2% 0 43,107 $1.87 16% San Marcos/Vista 93 2,163,329 3% 0 1,400,000 $1.93 19% Total 261 3,771,990 5% 0 1,443,107 $1.90 18%

East & South Suburban East County 264 2,941,695 4% 0 787,700 $1.67 6% South County 127 2,675,188 3% 0 952,082 $2.02 18% Total 391 5,616,883 7% 0 1,739,782 $1.84 12%

All San Diego County Markets 2,390 82,074,250 100% 1,240,416 16,962,518 $2.24 13% *Per square foot per month, full service. **Old Town/Sports Arena/Point Loma. Sources: Colliers International, 2014; Strategic Economics, 2014.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 55

Economic Context Report -24- Figure 16. Impact Fee Levels Low $5,000 Medium $15,000 High $30,000 Sources: Building Industry Association of San Diego, “2013-2014 Fee Survey: San Diego County;” City of San Diego, Planning Department Facilities Financing Section, “FY 2015 Impact Fee Schedule;” Strategic Economics, 2014.

Results Figures 17 and 18 show the rent and sale price thresholds estimated for each building type, by parking scenario and impact fee level. Figure 19 shows the projected timing of development feasibility in each market area, based on comparing the estimated thresholds with the actual rents and condominium prices reported in Section II (shown in Figures12 and 13) and a review of apartment projects that are under construction or were recently completed. Note that Figure 19 is not intended to be predictive, but rather to illustrate differences among market areas. In addition to financial feasibility, many other conditions affect where new development occurs. For example, the analysis does not take zoning for each market area into account; not all building prototypes may be allowed in all locations. In addition, most developers specialize in particular types of development (e.g. townhouses versus multi-family) and are likely to select sites based not only on baseline feasibility, but more importantly, on where they can expect the highest returns.

The projected timing of development feasibility is characterized in Figure 19 as follows: • Short term: Current rents or sales prices are sufficient to justify new development. • Medium term: New construction could be justified with a 5 to 10 percent increase in prices, and may in some cases already be feasible in close proximity to a transit station. As discussed above, research has found that condominiums located within a quarter-mile of a rail transit station in San Diego County are worth 16 percent more those located a mile away from a station, while single- family homes located within a quarter-mile of a station experience a 6 percent price premium compared to homes located a mile away.33 Research on apartment values is more limited, but San Diego developers have found that rents are also willing to pay a significant premium for proximity to rail stations. • Long term: Significant price increases (more than 10 percent) are required in order to enable new development. SANDAG Key findings, including implications of the analysis for local and regional policy, are discussed below, following Figures 17-19. Figure 31 - Estimated Minimum Rent Thresholds Figure 17. Estimated Minimum Rent Thresholds Required for Financial Feasibility Standard Parking Smart Growth Low Medium High Low Medium High Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Prototype Fees Fees Fees Fees Fees Fees Townhomes $2,050 $2,110 $2,210 N/A N/A N/A 3-4 Story Podium $2,290 $2,350 $2,450 $2,100 $2,160 $2,260 5-6 Story Wrapped $2,450 $2,520 $2,610 $2,310 $2,380 $2,470 15 Story Tower $3,450 $3,520 $3,610 $3,180 $3,240 $3,340 Assumes average regional land cost of $100,000 per unit. See Appendix A for detailed discussion of key assumptions and methodology. Source: Strategic Economics, 2014.

33 Duncan, “Comparing Rail Transit Capitalization Benefits for Single-Family and Condominium Units in San Diego, California.”

Figure 32 - Estimated Minimum Sale Price Thresholds EconomicFigure 18 Context. Estimated Report Minimum Sale Price Thresholds Required for Financial Feasibility -28- Standard Parking Smart Growth Low Medium High Low Medium High Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Prototype Fees Fees Fees Fees Fees Fees Townhomes $368,300 $379,800 $397,200 N/A N/A N/A 3-4 Story Podium $412,000 $423,600 $440,900 $377,300 $388,900 $406,300 5-6 Story Wrapped $441,100 $452,800 $470,200 $416,200 $427,900 $445,300 15 Story Tower $621,100 $632,900 $650,600 $572,000 $583,800 $601,500 Assumes average regional land cost of $100,000 per unit. See Appendix A for detailed discussion of key assumptions and methodology. Source: Strategic Economics, 2014.

56 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT

Economic Context Report -29- REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

FigureFigure 1933. Projected- Projected Timing Timing of Development of Development Feasibility (Short, Feasibility Medium, by or BuildingLong Term) Type by Building and Market Type and Area Market Area Major Statistical Area/ City or Market Area Townhouses 3-4 Story Podium 5-6 Story Wrapped 15 Story Tower North City Del Mar Short Short Short Short - Medium La Jolla/UTC Short Short Short Short - Medium I-15 Corridor Short Short Medium Long Mission Valley Short Short Short Medium Poway Medium Medium Long Long Central Downtown Short Short Short Short - Medium Balboa Park/University Heights Short Short Short Medium Coronado Short Short Short Short - Medium East San Diego Short Short Medium Long National City Medium Medium Long Long North County West Carlsbad Short Short*-Medium** Short*-Medium** Short*-Medium** Encinitas Short Short Medium Long Oceanside Short Short*-Medium** Short*-Medium** Short*-Long** Solana Beach Short Short Short Medium North County East Escondido Short Medium Long Long San Marcos Short Short Medium Long Vista Short Short Long Long East Suburban El Cajon Medium Long Long Long La Mesa Short Medium Medium Long Lemon Grove Short Medium Medium Long Santee Medium Long Long Long South Suburban Chula Vista Short Short Medium Long Imperial Beach Medium Medium Long Long *Coastal; **Inland Projected timing of development feasibility (assumes medium impact fees and smart growth parking ratios; townhouses are assumed to be ownership and multi-family projects are assumed to be rental): Short term: Current rents or condominium prices are sufficient to justify new development. Medium term: New construction could be justified with a 5 to 10 percent increase in prices; may be feasible today in close proximity to transit stations. Long term:Significant price increases (more than 10 percent) are required in order to support new development. Source: Strategic Economics, 2014.

TRANSIT-ORIENTEDEconomic Context Report COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT -30- 57 up around planned transit corridors after the routes are announced but before they are built, due to speculation. • Size of the affordability gap: As in other coastal California metropolitan areas, there is a significant gap between the amount that low- and moderate-income households can afford to pay for housing and the cost of construction. Figure 20 shows the gap between the rents required to achieve development feasibility for the different building prototypes, and the maximum affordable rent levels for very-low-, low-, and median-income households in the San Diego region. Because of the size of the gap, particularly for very-low-income households, significant subsidies are required to build affordable housing. SANDAG

FigureFigure 34 20 .- GapGap Between Between Affordable Affordable Rents andRents Minimum and MinimumThreshold Rent Threshold for Feasibility: Rent Very for-Low Feasibility-, Low-, and Median-Income Households, San Diego County, 2014 Very-Low-Income Low-Income Median-Income Minimum Household Household Household Rent (50% AMI)** (80% AMI)** (100% AMI)** Required for Development Affordable Affordable Affordable Prototype Feasibility* Rent Level Gap Rent Level Gap Rent Level Gap Townhomes $2,110 $1,033 -$1,078 $1,653 -$458 $1,898 -$213 3-4 Story Podium $2,350 $1,033 -$1,318 $1,653 -$698 $1,898 -$453 5-6 Story Wrapped $2,520 $1,033 -$1,488 $1,653 -$868 $1,898 -$623 15 Story Tower $3,520 $1,033 -$2,488 $1,653 -$1,868 $1,898 -$1,623 AMI: Area median income *Assumes medium impact fee levels, standard parking ratios. **Assumes 4-person households; affordable rent levels are calculated as 30% of the affordable housing income limits for San Diego County. Sources: California Department of Housing and Community Development, State Income Limits for 2014 (San Diego County); Strategic Economics, 2014. • Limited funding: Low-income housing tax credits are one of the most common sources for affordable housing development in California. However, the supply of tax credits is limited and the allocation process is highly competitive. Moreover, tax credits do not fully fund development; in order to make projects possible, affordable housing developers must typically cobble together funding from a number of different sources. Historically, affordable housing developers in the San Diego region and other parts of California relied heavily on funding from the redevelopment agencies’ Low and Moderate Income Housing Funds. Proposition 1C, a bond measure passed by voters in 2006, also provided significant funding for affordable housing development. However, Proposition 1C funding is now largely committed, and the state dissolved redevelopment in 2012. Adding to the challenge, recent state court rulings have eliminated the use of inclusionary zoning35 for rental housing, and are calling into question the long-term viability of requiring inclusionary units for for-sale housing as well. As a result, local governments are increasingly turning to housing impact fees to fund affordable housing development; this funding source is further discussed below. • Restrictive zoning and other constraints: Local height and density limits, high parking ratios, and other regulatory requirements can make affordable as well as market-rate housing development more challenging.

Potential to Use Value Capture Mechanisms to Fund Affordable Housing In places where rents exceed feasibility thresholds, there may be a potential to use value capture mechanisms to pay for affordable housing or other needs, if the right mechanism is in place. Value

35 Inclusionary zoning requires market-rate developers to set aside a certain percentage of units as affordable units for low- or moderate-income households, or pay an in-lieu fee.

Economic Context Report -33-

58 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

STATION 6. TYPES OF TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES

Transit-oriented communities are typified by their land use, density, urban form, and connections to the immediate and surrounding area. Communities that plan and zone for new development near transit often struggle to achieve the type or scale of investment they envision. Indeed, research has shown that the amount, location, and timing of development near transit can vary significantly among transit corridors and station areas. Local land use plans, policies, and regulations also play a very significant role in determining how transit-oriented communities evolve.

Characteristics of Transit-Oriented Communities

• Setting and Orientation: Existing land use in the surrounding area, station location, station access, and parking at the station. The setting and orientation of transit stations is described in more detail below. • Transit Service and Usage: Section 4 describes the existing transit service, current usage, and access to employment. Section 4 also describes planned transit service that is expected to be completed in the near- term. • Connections and Mobility Options: Connections and mobility options can help extend the benefits of transit-oriented communities into larger areas by providing transportation choices to more people who live and work near transit. The catchment area of transit stations depends on the existing physical environment, land use and urban form, as well as the connections from the station to the surrounding area. • Potential: Do local land use plans, policies, and regulations support the potential for TOD? • Smart Growth Opportunity Area: Is the area identified on SANDAG’s Smart Growth Concept Map, and if so, what type of Smart Growth Place Type is it. • Readiness: Is the development of townhouses, 3-4 story podium, 5-6 story wrapped, or 15 story tower feasible in the short-, medium-, or long-term?

Setting and Orientation of Transit Stations

Increasing the number of people that live and work near high-quality transit service provides more people with convenient access to high-quality transit. At the same time, high-quality transit benefits from more people living and working nearby increases ridership. A mix of land uses around a transit station can facilitate more housing, access to employment, and neighborhood serving retail to support people living and working nearby. Public open space, civic and institutional uses, and other special uses also provide strong anchors for transit-oriented communities.

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 59 SANDAG

The urban form of transit-oriented communities is different at each transit-oriented community. Parcel configuration, block size, building massing, scale of the buildings in relation to the street and people, and the amount of parking relative to active street frontage, and other factors are all important to making complete transit-oriented communities. Many transit stations have additional physical constraints that limit development in transit-oriented communities. This includes the rail lines that can be a barrier to accessing key destinations. Freeways and other major arterials that are near transit stations can also limit development. Natural features, such as the Pacific Ocean, rivers, and lagoons, are also constraints.

Connections and Mobility Options

For people that do not live or work directly adjacent to transit stations, mobility options can bridge the distance between transit and an individual’s origin or destination. Different mobility options, including walking, biking, and ridesharing provide additional connectivity and flexible transportation options. Mobility choices allow for decreased dependence on single occupancy vehicles, allowing for reduced traffic congestion and decreased vehicle miles traveled.

Typically the catchment area of transit-oriented communities is defined as one-quarter mile radius from the transit station. This distance is assumed to be a distance that most people are willing to walk. Biking is also an important mobility option and provides additional choices for people to access transit stations without a car. Bicycles extend the catchment area of transit-oriented communities even further and can easily extend to a mile or more. Many factors influence whether people are willing to walk and bike to transit, including trip length and purpose, weather, topography, demographics, and the physical environment. All things equal, people will likely walk and bike farther to access faster and more reliable services.50 Ridesharing, a network of good public transit, and carpooling are also important mobility options that can extend the catchment area of transit-oriented communities.

Potential

Local land use plans, policies, and regulations also play a very significant role in determining how transit-oriented communities evolve. General plans, zoning, and development standards define allowable land uses (and whether mixed use is allowed), define maximum heights, density, and building orientation. On-site parking requirements are also a key variable that determine the feasibility of development and the viability of transit-oriented communities. Although compact development directly adjacent to and immediately surrounding transit stations is critical to the success of transit-oriented communities, the relationship that the station has to the surrounding area and to the region at-large is also defining characteristic. A detailed discussion on the existing use and potential as a transit-oriented community is provided for each transit station in Appendix A. Section 7 – Trends and Considerations also discuss aspects of local government support for creating transit-oriented c communities.

Smart Growth Place Types

Each smart growth place type is associated with certain housing and employment density targets and transit service thresholds, and can qualify as either "Existing/Planned" or "Potential," depending upon whether it meets the established thresholds. The minimum land use and transit targets are listed below (with transit information

50 TransLink, December 2010, updated December 2011

60 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

based on the 2050 RTP/SCS). Areas must meet both the land use and the transit service targets to qualify as Existing/Planned.

SANDAG has identified a target minimum residential and employment density and type of transit service for each Smart Growth Place Types, which were first outlined in the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP), and were updated and refined for the 2050 RTP/SCS. SANDAG’s Smart Growth Place Types are coordinated with the 2050 Regional Growth Forecast and are intended to identify areas that are already served by infrastructure and can accommodate the region’s growth in population and employment.

Existing/Planned smart growth areas are locations that either contain existing smart growth development or allow planned smart growth in accordance with land use targets, and are accompanied by existing or planned transit services included in the 2050 RTP/SCS. Potential smart growth areas are locations where smart growth development could occur if local land use plans are changed and/or if the 2050 RTP/SCS is modified to include minimum levels of planned transit service.

Figure 35 - Minimum Land Use and Transportation Targets for Smart Growth Place Types

Minimum Minimum Smart Growth Minimum Transit Service Residential Employment Place Type Characteristics Target Target Commuter Rail, Express Light Rail Transit (LRT), or Metropolitan Center 75 du/ac 80 emp/ac Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

Urban Center 40 du/ac 50 emp/ac LRT or Rapid Bus

Town Center 20 du/ac 30 emp/ac LRT, Rapid Bus, or Streetcar/Shuttle*

High-Frequency Peak-Period Local Bus or Community Center 20 du/ac N/A Streetcar/Shuttle within Urban Area Transit Strategy Boundary

Rural Village 10.9 du/ac N/A N/A

Special Use Center Optional 45 emp/ac LRT, Rapid Bus, or Peak BRT

Mixed-Use Transit High-Frequency Peak-Period Local Bus or 25 du/ac N/A Corridor Streetcar/Shuttle

Types of Transit Oriented Communities

• Metropolitan Center

• Urban Transit Centers

TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT 61 SANDAG

• Urban/Suburban Transit Adjacent Districts

• Urban/Suburban Transit Neighborhoods

• Urban/Suburban Transit Hub and Anchors

• Urban/Suburban Transit Nodes

Metropolitan Center (Downtown San Diego)

Downtown San Diego is the only Metropolitan Center in the San Diego Region and it is a major opportunity area for additional development. It is also well served by existing inter-city, intra- region, urban, and local transit. It is a destination for Rapid bus and Rapid Express bus, as well as many high-frequency local bus routes. Downtown San Diego also has a high concentration of housing and employment. Residential densities range from 28.5 to 46.6 households per residential acre within 0.5 miles of transit stations and 16.0 to 108.0 jobs per acre within 0.5 miles of transit stations. The jobs to housing ratio in downtown San Diego is also very high and around most stations it is higher than 1.0.51

Downtown San Diego also benefits from supportive land use plans and polices and an improving market for residential and office development that provide the potential for development to occur near transit stations. It will also continue to evolve into a livable place, with a variety of recreational and cultural activities, a cluster of jobs, and improved mobility on foot, by bike, using transit, and through shared use mobility. Efforts to diversify the downtown employment base have created clusters in creative industries, government, tourism, and entertainment. Downtown San Diego is one of the largest opportunities for transit oriented development in the San Diego Region.

Downtown San Diego includes the following major transit stations:

• Gaslamp Quarter Station • Civic Center Station • Seaport Village Station • Fifth Avenue Station • Convention Center Station • America Plaza Station • Santa Fe Depot • City College Station • Park & Market Station • County Center/Little Italy Station • 12th & Imperial Transit Center

51 See: Figure 15, Figure 16, Figure 17, Figure 18, Figure 19, Figure 20, and Figure 21

62 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

Transit Districts

Transit Districts are all areas that provide convenient access to downtown San Diego on transit. Transit Districts have a mix of commercial and residential uses and have relatively higher density residential and/or employment than other areas currently served by transit. Transit Districts include areas that are adjacent to downtown; areas near the trolley in the South Bay; and around stations in Mission Valley. Although not on a trolley line, the neighborhoods surrounding downtown that are well served by bus are also included. Transit Districts have significantly lower residential and employment density than in downtown San Diego, but are relatively higher than at other stations. Residential densities range from 19.6 to 4.6 households per residential acre within 0.5 miles of a transit station; and, employment densities range from 17.7 to 2.0 jobs per acre within 0.5 miles of a transit station.52 Transit Districts have a diverse range of settings and orientation to transit stations, from more compact urban neighborhoods that are integrated with transit to more suburban areas that are adjacent to transit. Transit Districts offer an opportunity for creating transit-oriented communities because they have existing residential and employment density and are served by high-quality transit. Transit Districts include the following stations:

• Bayfront / E Street Station • H Street Station • Barrio Logan Station • 8th Street Station • 25th / Commercial Station • Middletown Station • Washington Street Station • 32nd Street / Commercial Station • Morena / Linda Vista Station • Fashion Valley Station • Hazard Center Station • Mission Valley Center Station • Mission San Diego Station • Rio Vista Station • Fenton Parkway Station • Mission San Diego Station • Uptown Neighborhood, San Diego • North Park / City Heights Neighborhoods, San Diego

Transit Centers

Transit Centers are areas located along the Trolley and have access to downtown San Diego. Transit Centers have compact development clusters that serve as the center of the surrounding community. Transit Centers have residential densities range from 6.8 to 4.5 households per residential acre within 0.5 miles of a transit station.

52 See: Figure 15, Figure 16, Figure 17, Figure 18, Figure 19, Figure 20, and Figure 21

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Employment density ranges from 15.9 to 4.6 jobs per acre within 0.5 miles of a transit station.53 Transit Centers include the following stations:

• Lemon Grove Depot • La Mesa Blvd. Station • El Cajon Transit Center • Santee Station • Grossmont Center Station

Downtown Oceanside

Downtown Oceanside is a unique transit-oriented community in the San Diego region. It serves as a major transit hub that provides access to downtown on the COASTER, access to employment and special use centers on the SPRINTER, and access to Orange County on the Metrolink. Downtown Oceanside also has high residential and employment density for North County but is still allows people to access transit by walking and on bike. Downtown Oceanside has a residential density of 8.7 households per residential acre and 8.46 jobs per acre within 0.5 miles of a transit center.54

Transit Neighborhood

Transit Neighborhoods are located in North County and are areas with relatively higher density compared to the surrounding areas. Transit Neighborhoods are integrated with the transit station but are often oriented to the larger surrounding area. Some of the stations are surrounded by surface parking. These areas are served either by the COASTER that provides access for commuters to downtown and through connections to jobs centers in Sorrento Valley. Other areas are located along the SPRINTER. Transit Neighborhoods have residential densities that range from 7.2 to 3.0 households per residential acre within 0.5 miles of a transit station; and, 13.5 to 2.3 jobs per acre within 0.5 miles of a transit station.55

• Poinsettia Station • Carlsbad Village Station • Encinitas Station • Solana Beach Station • Vista Transit Center • CSU San Marcos Station

Urban and Suburban Transit Nodes

Transit nodes are stations that serve as connection points to transit service. They are not transit-oriented communities, but may have the opportunity to evolve into one as additional growth and development occurs in these locations. Many of the stations lack residential and employment density within close proximity to the

53 See: Figure 15, Figure 16, Figure 17, Figure 18, Figure 19, Figure 20, and Figure 21 54 Ibid. 55 Ibid.

64 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

stations, and are mostly oriented toward the surrounding area, rather than the transit station itself. Many are surrounded by surface parking.

Urban Transit Nodes located along the Trolley include:

• Palomar Street Station • Harborside Station • Beyer Boulevard Station • 24th Street Station • Iris Avenue Station • Pacific Fleet Station • Palm Avenue Station • 70th Street Station • Arnele Ave Station • Amaya Drive Station • Grantville Station • Spring Street Station • Euclid Ave Station • 47th Street Station • Encanto / 62nd St Station • Massachusetts Ave Station

Suburban Transit Nodes located along the SPRINTER include:

• Buena Creek Station • Coast Highway Station • College Blvd Station • Crouch St Station • Vista Civic Center Station • Melorse Ave Station • Rancho Del Oro Station • San Marcos Civic Center Station • Nordahl Road Station

Anchor & Hubs

Anchors and hubs are an important part of the transit system because they are key destinations that are accessible by transit or provide access to additional destinations.

• Old Town Transit Center • Qualcomm Stadium • San Ysidro / International Border • Alvarado Station

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• Gillespie Field • San Diego State University • Palomar College

66 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

SECTION 7. TRENDS AND CONSIDERATIONS

There has been substantial progress made in regional and local land use planning. SANDAG’s Smart Growth Concept Map and updates to general plans, community plans, zoning ordinances and specific plans by local agencies have provided policy and planning support for transit-oriented communities throughout the region. However, implementing projects near transit stations has been a challenge. Successful development projects require stakeholder collaboration, creative funding packages, and must be carefully designed. Financing has been an increasing challenge, especially with the loss of redevelopment in California. Additionally, even economically feasible projects consistent with adopted plans often face political and legal challenges through the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and community opposition.

Focus Group Interviews

As part of the Transit Oriented Development Strategy for the San Diego Region, SANDAG has conducted a series of focus group interviews with stakeholders representing non-profit organizations, local governments, public agencies, and the private sector. Groups that provided input into include: real estate developers; affordable housing advocates and developers; community-based organizations, design professionals; SANDAG Regional Planning Technical Working Group.

The purpose of these sessions was to gather targeted, specific feedback on TOD challenges and opportunities in the region and build an understanding of diverse agency, professional, and community perspectives on TOD implementation and user experiences.

Through participants noted specific challenges to TOD implementation, they also saw positive opportunities to develop transit-oriented projects and neighborhoods in the region. Comments also generically reflected an understanding that increased density and improved transit system connectivity will play an important role in accommodating the region’s growth and maintaining its future economic competitiveness.

1. Community opposition can pose a major challenge for TOD implementation.

Concerns over change in the community can trigger specific opposition over project-related issues such as traffic, spillover parking, density, infrastructure capacity, and building height. This challenge highlights the need for continued education and outreach, political support, and partnership building. Stakeholders noted that demonstration projects, visuals and graphics, targeted outreach to vocal opponents, and messages framed around aging in place and retaining young people are all useful strategies to build community support.

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• Opposition lengthens the approval process and can cause developers to miss market opportunities. • Put emphasis on community education; it is extremely important to identify successes and failures. • Build a constituency for TOD by focusing earlier on transit. • We have to find a way to tell the story of where the region is going and how we will remain competitive; need to help communities to come along. • Communities need to get the land use regulations in place first and stick with it. • Infrastructure capacity is often a reason cited for public opposition to infill development.

2. There is growing recognition that changing demographics and shifts in market preferences support denser development and vibrant city and town centers.

Younger residents have different preferences and tend to like density and greater mobility associated with TODs. Employers also see dynamic environments and transit access as selling points for the region.

• Seeing more two person households with one car. • There is a major transition to multi-family units. • People are staying longer in urban environments. • Suburban downtowns are appealing and people are drawn to them. • The competitive environment of the future is different; to recruit and solicit talent, we need to deliver 24-hour amenities. • Transit is a regional infrastructure for recruiting.

3. Connecting housing to jobs is important to both employers and residents.

Commute patterns and transportation needs have changed in response to shifts in employment. Job access remains a challenge for many workers, especially low to moderate-income workers.

• Need to connect housing to jobs. • More employers are open to locating near transit to attract talent. • System connectivity is important; getting people to job-rich areas in Downtown, Mission Valley and North County. • Service industry workers in some communities currently face long travel times to jobs. • Focus on certain corridors that link to jobs not just transit.

4. TOD projects can provide more low to moderate-income housing opportunities, but there are continued obstacles to delivering affordable housing.

There is a recognized need for more low to moderate-income housing in the region. Along with housing, TOD can play a role in improving transportation access and increasing disposable income. Affordable housing projects, however, face challenges related to a lack of reliable funding sources, increasing land costs, and community resistance.

• Project financing for affordable housing is complex, difficult to get, and uncertain.

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• Tax credits only fund a small number of projects and are not meeting regional need. • Local regulations that require the same proportional mix for affordable and market rate units can create a mismatch between need and what developers can do. • Need to get access to sites along feeders and rapid transit corridors; the window is closing. • Acquisition costs for infill development are rising. • Affordable housing should look to healthy community advocates and programs for funding and support.

5. The region has promising areas for TOD projects.

The region has areas with underutilized land that could anchor TOD projects. However, the availability of appropriately zoned land is limited and it is difficult to redevelop existing properties with currently less intense uses due to issues such as assembling and configuring parcels or the low property tax base, which discourages the selling of land. Nonetheless, transit agencies have noted increased developer interest in TOD. Opportunity areas in the region include:

• Mission Valley • Carmel Valley • UTC • Grantville • E Street Station and L Street • Morena District • Kearny Mesa • The City Yards • El Cajon Boulevard • University Avenue • La Mesa • Carlsbad • Western Chula Vista • San Ysidro/Otay Mesa

6. Successful TOD is about the thoughtful design and planning of the broader setting and transportation network.

Supporting amenities, community-serving uses, a robust transportation network, and an engaging public realm all contribute to the appeal and viability of TOD projects. Stakeholders also noted the importance of active transportation options in bridging first mile/last mile challenges.

• Need a network of walkability to attract people to multi-family units. • Need uses like shopping and goods and services along transit corridors. • Public realm is most important, even more than the design of individual buildings. • We need to get down to the details of connectivity, including the ability of pedestrians to get to transit.

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• Building location and orientation is important. • Parks are very desirable; helps to address density concerns and build a sense of neighborhood. • Last mile connections to and from transit are important; car sharing arrangements like Car2Go can be helpful in addressing connectivity gaps. • There is good support for active transportation as a part of the overall transportation system. • SANDAG’s Active Transportation Working Group has suggested prioritizing transportation funds for first mile/last mile. • There is some concern that the current transit network is not robust enough yet to make TOD appealing and workable; need to focus on improving the efficiency, frequency, and reach of the existing system.

7. The state regulatory environment can create barriers.

• The CEQA process can deter development and opponents can use mitigation requirements to block TOD projects. • Traffic forecasting methods with a focus on Level of Service have been a big barrier. • Trip generation rates have not been updated in a long time and don’t reflect differing geographic contexts. • Need a model for how for forecasting vehicle miles traveled (VMT).. • Trip generation should be tied to product type, and unit type. • On-site drainage is also a major challenge. • Cities need to update their CEQA thresholds.

8. The market economics for TOD remain challenging but flexibility and predictability can help to reduce barriers.

The viability of TOD projects relies on a balance of land and project costs, market rents, and the type and density of product permissible. Local requirements for project elements such as parking, on-site infrastructure, and building height affect project feasibility.

• Even with rental increases, it is difficult to get the financing. • Parking ratios are a problem for market rate units; reducing parking ratios for affordable housing in City of San Diego was great; need to extend for market rate. • Height limit combined with parking ratio can make projects not work. • Lenders and underwriters often want more parking, regardless of codes. • The market is starting to accept some parking within walking distance, not just at the project. • Don't get to proscriptive on style; give an envelope to work within. • Big infrastructure issue is storm drain and storm water. • The challenge is infrastructure; impact fees are high and there are infrastructure deficits. • Impact fees are being driven up by applying suburban standards to urban contexts. • Having master planning ground rules in place first to get to a ministerial, rather than a discretionary approval process will help.

70 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

• Small parcels are a challenge, particularly without redevelopment funding and a lack of tools for assembly.

9. It is important for the regional strategy to set priorities and focus.

Advancing TOD implementation planning through large-scale master planning is challenging. A more targeted, prioritized approach may be necessary to support successful implementation.

• Focus on the micro scale to advance implementation. • Focus on the most ready area and demonstrate success, then build from there incrementally, rather than all of the station areas at once. • Strategy needs to speak to jobs and economic development on logical corridors; there are good urban spines; work on getting density along these corridors. • Prioritization of areas on the Smart Growth map or possible consolidation of areas could be helpful.

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72 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

SECTION 8. BUILDING A TOOLBOX

This report is also supported by technical white papers that provide an in- depth look at barriers to TOD implementation and identifies solutions to overcome them. The white papers will help support the implementation of TOD in the San Diego region.

SANDAG is preparing a Regional Transit Oriented Development Strategy to focus on implementation of transit oriented development projects in the San Diego region. The Regional TOD Strategy seeks to facilitate development by prioritizing support for transit-oriented development in areas that have the most potential for success. White papers are being prepared as part of the Regional TOD Strategy to understand key issues influencing transit oriented development in the San Diego region and to identify ways of reducing barriers to development. The white papers will address the following topics.

1. CEQA: Streamlining (SB 375) and Travel Forecasting (SB 743)

2. Connections: Master Plan, Active Transportation & Mobility Management

3. Affordable Housing and Housing Choices

4. Urban Form: Urban Form, Density, and Land Use Regulation

5. Infrastructure and Community Facilities: Capacity and Financing

6. Readiness Criteria: Metrics for Transit-Oriented Communities

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74 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY

SECTION 9. EXAMPLE TOD PROJECTS IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION

Notable TOD Projects in the San Diego Region (For a map, visit: http://cdb.io/1ufb2Bq)\

• Mercado del Barrio • Comm22 • Market Creek Plaza • Village at Morena Vista • Citronica • Mercado Apartments (by MAAC) • Tavarua Senior Apartments • Smart Corner • Autumn Terrace • Del Rio Apartment Homes • Millenia • Little Italy • Archstone La Mesa & Central Park La Mesa • Mission Greens • 6855 Friars Rd. • Solana Beach • Hazard Center • Civita • Pacific Station • River Run Village • Poinsettia Station • Carlsbad Village • Oceanside Transit Center • Vista Affordable Housing

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APPENDIX A. DESCRIPTION OF TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES

EXAMPLE

76 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY BARRIO LOGAN TRANSIT STATION

Jurisdiction: San Diego (SD-BL-1)

TOD Type: Urban Transit District

Smart Growth Place Type: Existing/Planned Town Center (SD-BL-1), Existing/Planned Town Center (SD-BL-2)

Readiness: Short-Term

Townhouses: ? 3-4 Story Podium? 5-6 Story Wrapped: ? 15 Story Tower: ?

Potential: Yes

Use Description: This smart growth opportunity area consists of (1) the Carlsbad Village Master Plan and Design Manual (Village MP) area at approximately 200 acres; and (2) the City’s Barrio at approximately 128 acres. The Carlsbad Village COASTER Station, which provides commuter rail service, is located in the heart of the Carlsbad Village area at Grand Avenue and State Street. The Village MP allows residential development up to 35 units per acre in the core village area with special emphasis around the COASTER station. Mixed residential/retail development also is encouraged.

The future residential capacity within the Village MP area is estimated to be 793 dwelling units. Additionally included in the smart growth opportunity area is the Barrio - an area for which the City has approved land use changes that include provisions for high-density residential (up to 30 dwelling units/acre), which is similar to existing allowances in the Village MP. Objectives for the Barrio area include providing high-density residential located within convenient walking distance to transit stops. The City of Carlsbad has begun a comprehensive update to the Village MP that would expand the plan boundaries to include the Barrio, with a focus on pedestrian and bicycle connectivity and other plan enhancements that would facilitate smart growth and redevelopment.

Existing development in the Village MP and Barrio areas include low-rise building types. The areas are currently served with commuter rail and bus transportation service, with planned phase-in of high-frequency local and rapid bus service.

TOD Projects: Mercado del Barrio; Mercado Apartments EXAMPLE EXAMPLE

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