San Diego Association of Governments TRANSIT ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION DRAFT - CONTEXT REPORT November 2014 DRAFT TRANSIT ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN EconomicTHE Context SAN Report DIEGO REGION San Diego Regional TOD Strategy DRAFT - CONTEXT REPORT November 2014October 15, 2014 PREPARED FOR: San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) prepared for: PREPARED BY: SANDAG AECOM REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY Fashion Valley Transit Center in the 1980s. Flickr / SDMTS: https://www.flickr.com/photos/sdmts/13441171155/ TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT III SANDAG TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Context of Transit-Oriented Communities in the San Diego Region ........................ 1 2 Setting a Foundation for the Future of Transit-Oriented Communities .................... 5 3 Population, Employment, and Housing Growth in the San Diego Region ������������� 13 4 Regional Transit System and Access to Employment ............................................. 27 5 Local Market Readiness and Development Prototypes .......................................... 47 6 Types of Transit-Oriented Communities ................................................................. 59 7 Trends and Considerations ................................................................................... 67 8 Building a Toolbox ................................................................................................ 73 9 Example TOD Projects in the San Diego Region .................................................... 75 APPENDICES A Description of Transit-Oriented Communities .......................................................A-1 IV TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Smart Growth Concept Map (October 2014) ........................................................................................................................1 Figure 2 - 2050 Regional Growth Forecast Projections .......................................................................................................................17 Figure 3 - 2050 Regional Population, Housing, and Jobs Forecast ......................................................................................................18 Figure 4 - Housing Near Public Transit ...............................................................................................................................................18 Figure 5 - Housing Capacity (Number of Existing Plus Additional Housing Units Planned) ...................................................................19 Figure 6 - Population by Age 2008 and 2050 .....................................................................................................................................19 Figure 7 - Percent of Owner-Occupied Housing Units within One-Half Mile ........................................................................................20 Figure 8 - Percent of Owner-Occupied Housing Units within One-Half Mile, by Transit Station .............................................................21 Figure 9 - Median Household Income within One-Half Mile ...............................................................................................................22 Figure 10 - Median Household Income with One-Half Mile, by Transit Station.....................................................................................23 Figure 11 - Employment by Industry Group, San Diego County, 2012 .................................................................................................24 Figure 12 - Projected Employment Growth Rates by Industry Group: San Diego County, 2012-35 and 2035-50 ���������������������������������24 Figure 13 - Geographic Distribution of Selected Industry Clusters ......................................................................................................25 Figure 14 - 2014 Regional Transit System ..........................................................................................................................................33 Figure 15 - Households per Residential Acre within One-Half Mile (2010) ..........................................................................................34 Figure 16 - Jobs per Acre within One-Half Mile (2010) .......................................................................................................................35 Figure 17 - Blue Line Demographic Profile .........................................................................................................................................36 Figure 18 - Green Line Demographic Profile .......................................................................................................................................37 Figure 19 - Orange Line Demographic Profile .....................................................................................................................................38 Figure 20 - COASTER Demographic Profile ........................................................................................................................................39 Figure 21 - SPRINTER Demographic Profile ........................................................................................................................................40 Figure 22 - 2013 Average Weekday Boardings ...................................................................................................................................41 Figure 23 - 2013 Average Weekday Alightings ...................................................................................................................................42 Figure 24 - Blue LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station .............................................................43 Figure 25 - Green LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station ...........................................................44 Figure 26 - Orange LIne FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station .........................................................45 Figure 27 - COASTER FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station ............................................................46 Figure 28 - SPRINTER FY2014 Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings, by Transit Station ............................................................46 Figure 29 - Apartment Market Inventory, Pipeline Projects, and Rents by Major Statistical Area, Mid-2014 .........................................54 Figure 30 - Office Market Inventory, Pipeline Development, Rents, and Vacancy Rates by Major Statistical Area ����������������������������������55 Figure 31 - Estimated Minimum Rent Thresholds ................................................................................................................................56 Figure 32 - Estimated Minimum Sale Price Thresholds ........................................................................................................................56 Figure 33 - Projected Timing of Development Feasibility by Building Type and Market Area .................................................................57 Figure 34 - Gap Between Affordable Rents and Minimum Threshold Rent for Feasibility .....................................................................58 Figure 35 - Minimum Land Use and Transportation Targets for Smart Growth Place Types ..................................................................61 TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT V SANDAG America Plaza Station, Downtown San Diego. Source: https://www.flickr.com/people/neighborhoods/ VI TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION: CONTEXT REPORT REGIONAL TOD STRATEGY SECTION 1. CONTEXT OF TRANSIT-ORIENTED COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION What are transit-oriented communities? Transit-oriented communities (TOCs) are places with concentrated residential, commercial, and mixed-use development served by high-quality transit. Transportation-oriented communities provide transportation choices that allow people to drive less, walk, ride bicycles, and take transit more. Transit-oriented communities have many benefits, including: • creating projects and neighborhoods that will reduce GHG emissions; • increasing transit ridership; • providing transportation choices; • supporting walking, biking, and other mobility options; • reducing the amount people drive; • facilitating housing and employment opportunities for all residents in the region; • and, improving performance of the street, highway, and freeway system.1 Transit-Oriented Communities versus Transit-Oriented Development Transit-oriented communities refer to transit stations and the area that surrounds them. This terminology is used to acknowledge that investments in high-quality transit should be maximized and that great communities and neighborhoods are more than just a transit stop with buildings around it. The term transit-oriented development is used to refer to individual projects, buildings, or other improvements that help create the physical environment of a successful transit-oriented community. This includes joint development and other public-private partnerships to facilitate TOD projects. Snapshot of Transit-Oriented Communities in the San Diego Region No two transit-oriented communities in the San Diego region are the same, and each one will continue to evolve into a distinct place. This report describes the context