A Vehicle for Change PNGV, an Experiment in Government-Industry Cooperation
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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow’s faculty committee. A Vehicle for Change PNGV, An Experiment in Government-Industry Cooperation David S. Trinkle This document was submitted as a dissertation in December 2009 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of James Bonomo (Chair), Steven W. Popper, and Paul C. Light. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2010 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional infrmation, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] - iii - PREFACE This research assesses the effectiveness of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) in improving relationships among its members. The period examined is the decade of the 1990s, a period when U.S. industrial competitiveness was a significant national concern, and laws enabled new forms of industrial cooperation such as R&D partnerships. While PNGV’s ultimate technical accomplishments were limited, this study finds that this government-industry partnership did improve the relationship between the government and this industry. This study also provides practical observations on specific aspects of a partnership to emulate or avoid. This research should be of interest to those in government, industry, or academia studying public- private R&D organizations, including individuals seeking to create or improve a government-industry R&D partnership. This research received support from the Technology Administration within the U.S. Department of Commerce. The sponsor had no role in the design, analysis, or writing of this dissertation; the author retains sole responsibility for its contents. - v - CONTENTS Preface................................................................................................................................ iii Contents ...............................................................................................................................v Figures............................................................................................................................... vii Tables................................................................................................................................. ix Abstract.............................................................................................................................. xi Summary.......................................................................................................................... xiii Acknowledgements......................................................................................................... xvii Chapter 1: Introduction........................................................................................................1 Chapter 2: A Brief History of U.S. Automotive Policy.......................................................5 Chapter 3: PNGV Design and Implementation .................................................................32 Chapter 4: Theory Related to Automotive Policy and PNGV...........................................61 Chapter 5: Prior PNGV Research and This Dissertation...................................................89 Chapter 6: Study Design ..................................................................................................101 Chapter 7: Data and Methods ..........................................................................................108 Chapter 8: Relationships Between Government and Industry.........................................152 Chapter 9: Relationships Within the Domestic Auto Industry ........................................219 Chapter 10: Components of Relationships Among Participants......................................245 Chapter 11: PNGV in the Rear-View Mirror...................................................................289 Chapter 12: A Vehicle for Change?.................................................................................318 Appendix A: Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................328 Appendix B: Documents Related to Research Interviews...............................................331 Appendix C: Codes Assigned to Automotive News “Opinion” Columns.......................334 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................343 - vii - FIGURES Figure 2-1: Regulations Across Automotive Issues Before 1993..................................... 28 Figure 3-1: The Structure of PNGV.................................................................................. 37 Figure 3-2: PNGV Master Program Schedule .................................................................. 41 Figure 3-3: PNGV Federal Funding Estimates................................................................. 43 Figure 3-4: U.S. Average Retail Gasoline Prices ............................................................. 52 Figure 4-1: A Simple Representation of the Market for Conventional Vehicles ............. 69 Figure 4-2: The Markets for Conventional and Alternative Vehicles .............................. 71 Figure 4-3: Demand Incentives for Alternative Vehicles Can Motivate Production........ 74 Figure 4-4: Supply Disincentives Can Enable Alternative Markets................................. 77 Figure 4-5: Supporting Technology Development Can Lower Production Costs............ 78 Figure 4-6: PNGV Addressed Many Issues Simultaneously............................................ 88 Figure 7-1: Cumulative Counts of Categorized Automotive News Opinions ................. 144 Figure 10-1: Interactions Between Institutions............................................................... 246 Figure 10-2: Effects of Interactions on Institutional Relationships................................ 247 Figure 10-3: Modes of Interactions in Institutional Relationships ................................. 250 Figure 10-4: Coordination of Government and Industry Efforts.................................... 257 Figure 10-5: Outcomes of Interactions in Institutional Relationships............................ 267 Figure 10-6: Effects of Interactions on Institutional Relationships................................ 274 Figure 10-7: Cumulative Counts of Categorized Automotive News Opinions ............... 278 Figure 10-8: Detail of Automotive News Opinions from May 1993 to May 1994 ......... 280 Figure 10-9: Cumulative Counts of Coded Opinions from The Detroit News ............... 283 - ix - TABLES Table 2-1: Trends in Federal Automobile Policies Prior to PNGV.................................. 12 Table 2-2: Primary Federal Automotive Safety Regulations............................................ 14 Table 2-3: Primary Federal Emissions Regulations.......................................................... 16 Table 2-4: Primary