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Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency and Synthetic Fuels: Alternatives for Reducing Oil Imports

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Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency and Synthetic Fuels: Alternatives for Reducing Oil Imports Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency and Synthetic Fuels: Alternatives for Reducing Oil Imports September 1982 NTIS order #PB83-126094 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 82-600603 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Foreword This report presents the findings of an assessment requested by the Senate Com- mittee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. The study assesses and compares increased automobile fuel efficiency and synthetic fuels production with respect to their potential to reduce conventional oil consumption, and their costs and impacts. Con- servation and fuel switching as a means of reducing stationary oil uses are also con- sidered, but in considerably less detail, in order to enable estimates of plausible future oil imports. We are grateful for the assistance of the project advisory panels and the many other people who provided advice, information, and reviews. It should be understood, how- ever, that OTA assumes full responsibility for this report, which does not necessarily represent the views of individual members of the advisory panels. Director Automobile Fuel Efficiency Advisory Panel Michael J. Rabins, Chairman Wayne State University Maudine R. Cooper* John B. Heywood National Urban League, Inc. Massachusetts Institute of Technology John Ferron John Holden National Automobile Dealers Association Ford Motor Co. Donald Friedman Maryann N. Keller Minicar, Inc. Paine, Webber, Mitchell, & Hutchins Herbert Fuhrman Paul Larsen National Institute for GMC Truck and Coach Division Automobile Service Excellence Robert D. Nell James M. Gill Consumers Union The Ethyl Corp. Kenneth Orski R. Eugene Goodson** German Marshall Fund of the United States Hoover Universal, Inc. Charles M. Heinen*** Howard Young* Chrysler Corp. United Auto Workers Synthetic Fuels Advisory Panel Hans Landsberg, Chairman Resources for the Future Harvey O. Banks Robert Howell Camp Dresser McKee, Inc. Refinery Consultant Chairman, Synfuels Subcommittee Ellen Berman Sierra Club Consumer Energy Council of America Sheldon Lambert Shell Oil Co. Leslie Burgess Fluor Corp. John L. McCormick Environmental Policy Center Frank Collins Edward Merrow Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers Rand Corp. International Union Richard K. Pefley Santa Clara University Thomas F. Edgar University of Texas AlIan G. Pulsipher Tennessee Valley Authority Louis Frick Robert Reilly E. 1. du Pent de Nemours & Co., Inc. Ford Motor Co. Bernard Gillespie Fred Wilson Mobil Research and Development Co. Texaco, Inc. NOTE: The Advisory Panels provided advice and comment throughout the assessment, but the members do not necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse the report for which OTA assumes full responsibility. ● Resigned from panel. ● ● Formerly with Institute for Interdisciplinary Engineering Stud&, Purdue University. * ● ● Retired from Chrysler cOrp. ICurrently with LTV Corp. iv OTA Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency and Synthetic Fuels Project Staff Lionel S. Johns, Assistant Director, OTA Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Richard E. Rowberg, Energy Program Manager Synthetic Fuels and Project Coordination Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency Thomas E. Bull, Project Director John A. Alic, Automobile Technology Paula J. Stone, Assistant Project Director Marjory S. Blumenthal, Cost Analysis and Steven E. Plotkin, Environmental Analysis Economic and Social Impacts and Executive Summary Larry L. Jenney, Automobile Technology Richard W. Thoreson, Economic Impacts Richard Willow, Electric Vehicles Contributors David Strom Franklin Tugwell David Sheridan, Editor Administrative Staff Lillian Quigg Edna Saunders Marian Grochowski Virginia Chick Contractors E. J. Bentz & Associates, Inc., Springfield, Va. Wright Water Engineers, Inc., Denver, Colo. Michael Chartock, Michael Devine, and Martin Cines, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Okla. General Research Corp., Santa Barbara, Calif. OTA Publishing Staff John C. Holmes, Publishing Officer John Bergling Kathie S. Boss Debra M. Datcher Joe Henson Acknowledgments OTA thanks the following people who took time to provide information or review part or all of the study. John Acord C. Gilmore Dutton Montana Department of Natural Resources Appropriations and Revenue Committee and Conservation Kentucky Legislative Research Commission David Alberswerth Vernon Fahy Western Organization of Resource Councils North Dakota State Engineer Louis E, Allen Jack Fitzgerald Wyoming State Engineer’s Office U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Morris Altshuler Gary Fritz U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation Marty Anderson Transportation Systems Center Jack Gilmore Department of Transportation Denver Research Institute University of Denver Ray Baldwin Planning Department, Garfield County, Colo. Harris Gold Water Purification Associates Craig Bell Western States Water Council David Gushee Congressional Research Service Martin J. Bernard, Ill Center for Transportation Research Jack Hannon Argonne National Laboratory E. 1. du Pent de Nemours & Co., Inc. Don Bischoff Richard Hildebrand California Energy Commission U.S. Department of Energy William Boehly Frank von Hippel National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Center for Energy and Environmental Studies Princeton University Charles Brooks U.S. Department of Energy Edward Hoffman A. L. Brown Consultant EXXON Coal Resources, USA, Inc. Harriet Holtzman George Byron Environmental Policy Institute Transportation Systems Center Darrell Howard Department of Transportation Tennessee Valley Authority James Childress Richard Howard National Council on Synthetic Fuels Production South Dakota Department of Water George Christopulos and Natural Resources Wyoming State Engineer Charles Hudson David Cole Argonne National Laboratory Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation University of Michigan James John Department of Mechanical Engineering George Davis Ohio State University U.S. National Committee for International Hydrology Program Arvid Joupi Clarence Ditlow Joseph Kanianthra Center for Auto Safety National Highway Traffic Safety Administration vi Sarah La Belle H. Robichaud Argonne National Laboratory ANG Coal Gasification Jonathan Lash Phil Scharre Natural Resources Defense Council Tennessee Valley Authority Minh-Triet Lethi William Schriver Office of Science and Technology Policy U.S. Department of Labor Kevin Markey Roger Shun Friends of the Earth U.S. Department of Energy David Marks Tom Sladek Department of Civil Engineering Colorado School of Mines Research Institute Massachusetts Institute of Technology Catherine Slesinger J. P. Matula General Accounting Office EXXON Research & Engineering Co. John H. Smithson Dennis McElwain U.S. Department of Energy AFL-CIO Earl Staker C. E. McGehee Utah Deputy State Engineer Battlement Mesa, Inc. Dick Strombotne Gary McKenzie National Highway Traffic Safety Administration National Science Foundation George Tauxe Ron McMahan Science and Public Policy Program Abt/West University of Oklahoma Gene Meyer David Tundermann Shell Oil Co. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Carl Nash Wallace Tyner National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Christopher Palmer National Audobon Society Richard A. Walde Gulf Research and Development Co. Laszlo Pastor DRAVO Corp. David Walker Colorado Water Conservation Board E. Piper Energy Development Consultants, Inc. George Wang Bechtel Group, Inc. James Posewitz Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife, R. M. Wham and Parks Oak Ridge National Laboratory Frank Richardson Mary Pat Wilson National Highway Traffic Safety Administration WESTPO Richard D. Ridley Edward P. Yarmowich Occidental International Corp. U.S. Department of Energy vii Contents Chapter Page I. Executive Summary . 3 2.introduction . 29 3. Policy . .. .. .. .. ... $........ 35 4. issues and Findings. 67 5. Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency . 105 6. Synthetic Fuels . 157 T. Stationary Uses of Petroleum . 183 8. Regional and National Economic Impacts . 195 9. Social Effects and Impacts . 219 10. Environment, Health, and Safety Effects and Impacts . 237 11. Water Availability for Synthetic Fuels Development . 279 Index . 291 Chapter 1 Executive Summary Contents Page Introduction. 3 Conclusions and Comparisons . 3 Import Reductions . 3 costs . 5 Technological and Economic Risks . 6 Additional Bases for Comparison-Environmental Social and Economic Effects . 7 policy . 8 Stimulating Oil Import Reductions . 8 Dealing With Other Effects . 10 Overview of the lmport Reduction Options . 10 Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency . 10 Synthetic Fuels . 16 Reducing Stationary Uses of Oil. 22 Electric Vehicles . 24 TABLES Table No. Page I. Projected Average Fuel Economy, 1985-2000 . 11 2. Domestic Investment for Increased Fuel Efficiency . 13 3. Consumer Costs for increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency, Without Discounting Future Fuel Savings, Moderate Shift to Smaller Cars . 14 4. Price of Synthetic Fuels Required To Sustain Production Costs . 17 5. Two Comparisons of the Environmental impacts of Coal-Based Synfuels Production and Coal-Fired Electric Generation . 20 6. Summary of Annual Energy Requirements To Displace 2.55 MMB/D of Stationary Fuel Oil Use . 23 FIGURES Figure No. Page l. Potential Oil Savings Possible by the Year 2000 . 4 2. Estimated Investment Costs for the Oil Import Reduction Options . 6 Chapter 1 Executive Summary INTRODUCTION In 1981, U.S. oil imports averaged 5.4 million
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