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Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Floorspace Need in London CONSUMER EXPENDITURE AND COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED IN LONDON 31st October 2017 MAYOR OF LONDON 1 Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Floorspace Need in London CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ______________________________________ 3 2 INTRODUCTION ____________________________________________ 9 2A Aims and objectives ................................................................................ 9 2B Scope of the study ................................................................................ 10 Disruptive Technologies ............................................................................. 11 2C Economic context ................................................................................. 13 2D Policy context ....................................................................................... 16 2E London’s town centre network .............................................................. 16 3 METHODOLOGY __________________________________________ 18 3A Consumer expenditure forecasts .......................................................... 20 3B Comparison goods forecast needs ....................................................... 42 3B1 Baseline ............................................................................................. 42 3B2 Pipeline .............................................................................................. 44 3B3 Future potential network changes ...................................................... 47 3B4 Quality adjustment ............................................................................. 49 3B5 Addressing gaps in provision ............................................................. 51 4 OUTCOMES ______________________________________________ 55 Retail floorspace requirements .................................................................. 61 4A1 Baseline ............................................................................................. 61 4A2 Pipeline .............................................................................................. 65 4A3 Future potential network changes ...................................................... 71 4A4 Quality Adjustment............................................................................. 77 5 CONCLUSIONS ___________________________________________ 92 6 APPENDICES _____________________________________________ 97 © 2017 Experian Ltd 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Introduction This study provides evidence of the likely future consumer expenditure in London, and forecasts the need for comparison retail floorspace across London and within its individual centres. It will be used to inform the London Plan, which gives strategic planning guidance on the future growth of London’s town centres and retail developments within London. The previous retail needs study, produced by Experian in 2013, looked at the retail supply and likely demand from 2011 to 2031, and estimated the retail needs for this period for London. The current study creates an update to the previous study, this time based from 2015 and looking forward to 2050, using the most up-to-date data and trends available in October 2016. 1.2 National Economic and Retail Trends Since the last study there has been substantial economic, political, social and technological change. The possible impact of Brexit, a changing world trade and security climate and the range of emerging disruptive technologies point to an increasingly uncertain economic future. In parallel to these wider macroeconomic patterns there are other significant structural retail changes. Most significant amongst these is the substantial and continuing move from shop based retail purchases to on-line retail. This has been particularly strong in certain comparison retail sectors such as electrical goods, books, music, films, cameras, holidays, insurance and games. This trend continues and the current 20% of sales value on-line will expand over time. These changes have left in their wake a set of retail company failures and contractions including Jessops, Comet, HMV and many independent book and music stores. On-line grocery shopping continues to grow, and supermarkets have seen increasing competition for non-food and even some food sales from on-line purchases. Retail supply has also seen a range of other changes in the last decade. This includes the strengthening of major multiple brands against the independents and in favour of the dominant brands with the larger market share, growth of larger retail centres and the major malls, continued demand for car-oriented out-of-town retail parks, and decline particularly in smaller and more down-market high streets. These trends were recognised nationally and led to the Mary Portas review of high streets. 1.3 London Economic and Retail Trends In London, this pattern of concentration on fewer larger and stronger centres can also be seen and should be expected to continue, with an impact on certain smaller and shadowed centres (those where proximity to a very strong retail destination deflects sales away). London has also seen the development and continued growth of large malls, most significantly in Stratford and Shepherds Bush, although notably these have been developed on the edge of existing centres rather than as stand-alone retail parks. London’s retail centres, particularly in the east of the capital, continue to see strong competition from Bluewater and Lakeside retail parks. Despite these uncertainties and structural challenges, there are good reasons to have confidence in London’s continued economic performance.as the economic engine of the UK economy. The London economy is much more dynamic than the rest of the UK with a younger, growing, diverse population and healthy business base that will show greater levels of retail space needs than much of the UK. London’s population is expected to rise substantially and workforce and tourism demand are likely to expand. © 2017 Experian Ltd – Confidential 3 Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Floorspace Need in London 1.4 Key Findings In the context of all the above economic, demographic, retail supply and social changes, this study evaluates not only the overall absolute levels of comparison retail space needed in London but also where the space is most likely to be needed. The polarisation of centres, with demand for comparison goods floorspace increasingly being drawn to larger centres, will mean that some centres will require substantial extra retail space and others will need to plan for a more static scenario. In some cases, centres will require policies to ameliorate the possible decline in demand for retail space. Using GLA population projections as one of the inputs, this study assesses the need for comparison goods retail floorspace in Greater London between 2015 and 2050 and evaluates how well the existing and pipeline retail floorspace will meet this demand. It looks at the absolute need for additional comparison goods retail floorspace over time at a series of geographic levels and against a set of possible scenarios and measures the impact of these. Comparison and Convenience Expenditure Projection The first part of the study assesses spending growth for London. If the expected base level of spending growth occurs then the study projects a rise from £36.6 billion on comparison goods expenditure in London in 2015 to £80.8 billion by 2041, and a rise from £15.2M to £19.8M on convenience retail expenditure. Figure 1. Spend by Greater London residents under differing growth projections (2012 prices £m) 2015 2041 Central Convenience 15,246 19,873 Comparison 26,673 59,116 Total retail spend 41,919 78,989 Low Convenience 15,246 17,452 Comparison 26,673 52,053 Total retail spend 41,919 69,506 High Convenience 15,246 22,615 Comparison 26,673 67,094 Total retail spend 41,919 89,710 Comparison Retail Floorspace Needs The study converts the comparison goods expenditure forecast into floorspace requirements for London. If no major changes take place to the patterns of retail supply and none of the developments in the current pipeline were constructed and it is assumed that current trends of improving retail efficiency continue then London will need nearly 1.6 million square metres of additional comparison goods retail floorspace by 2041 (baseline scenario). If all the known developments in the pipeline are built by 2041 London will need 1.2 million square metres of additional floorspace (2.4 million gross if pipeline isn’t built). Alongside the baseline and pipeline scenarios, three further scenarios have been produced: • Strengthening of selected retail centres in line with the London Plan (Future Network Changes). This results in a projected 1.2 million square meters of additional floor space. • Continuing polarisation towards larger centres continuing (Quality Adjustment) This results in a projected demand for 1.3 million square meters of additional floorspace. © 2017 Experian Ltd 4 Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Floorspace Need in London • Strengthening larger centres near to the parts of London where retail capacity is least accessible (Addressing Gaps in Provision). This results in a projected demand of 1.3 million square meters. © 2017 Experian Ltd 5 Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Floorspace Need in London • Figure 3 shows the comparison floorspace requirement forecasts under these different scenarios. Overall floorspace requirements are largely driven by expected demand which is expected to be muted in the short term then recover to
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