Executive Summary

Crossrail Property Impact Study

October 2012

gva.co.uk – Property Impact Study 2012 Executive Summary

Executive Summary Farringdon Crossrail Station, Eastern Ticket Hall The Crossrail Vision

Crossrail is among the Crossrail’s vision is for the project to play an • Crossrail will support the delivery of active and broad role in moving more than 57,000 new homes and 3.25 most significant forward. As well as delivering a world-class million square metres of commercial infrastructure projects railway that fast-tracks the progress of London. office space that have been identified Crossrail will drive progress and leave a for development within 1 kilometre of ever undertaken in the UK. lasting legacy in many different ways. These stations along the route. include skills, employment, public art and From improving journey • Commercial office values around procurement of materials, equipment and Crossrail stations in central London will times across London, services from across the United Kingdom. But increase due to Crossrail over the next perhaps the most immediate and tangible to easing congestion decade, with an uplift of 10 per cent in benefits that Crossrail will unlock include: and offering better capital value above a rising baseline • The creation of new stations and projection. connections, Crossrail will additional rail capacity; change the way people • There will be significant increases in • Enhancing stations and their surrounding residential capital values immediately travel around the capital. urban environments; originating new around stations in central London of some over-site development opportunities 25 per cent and in the suburbs of some 20 Building the new railway above stations; per cent (again above the rising baseline projection in the period). involves constructing • Helping generate and focus 21km of twin-bore tunnels, development and investment activity • Urban realm improvements and the along the route; and development of new schemes above constructing eight new Crossrail stations will act as a highly • Supporting the future economic growth visible and beneficial driver for further stations in central London of the UK, helping to maintain London’s development activity, the intensification status as a global city. and Docklands and of use and in several areas, such as upgrading many existing Crossrail is more than a new rail link, it Farringdon, significant change. Crossrail will be the catalyst for regeneration in will have a transformative effect on stations. Stretching key locations and a driver of London’s the property market and development from Maidenhead and economic growth, in particular from a activity over time. property perspective. Heathrow in the west, Land Securities, one of the UK’s leading across to Shenfield and Crossrail’s property impact property developers considers that “Crossrail will have a positive effect in the long- Abbey Wood in the east, Key findings of this study covering the period term. It has already changed our views the new railway covers 2012-2021 are: on development investment and property acquisitions in areas along the route. • Crossrail is already having an impact on 118 km of track. Crossrail Crossrail is already referred to and used investment decisions. At many locations within marketing material and in occupier services are due to Crossrail will be influential in supporting queries. It will reinforce London as a place and accelerating new development. commence in 2018. to invest, which has got be good.” • Crossrail could help create additional residential and commercial value of as much as £5.5bn along the route between 2012 and 2021. Crossrail has the potential to support new growth of a transformative nature in locations that have been constrained by transport accessibility and have seen lower levels of new development and floorspace in recent years.

Tottenham Court Road Station, Western Ticket Hall

Paddington Crossrail Station

Central St. Giles. Nearest Crossrail Station: Crossrail Launch Event Crossrail – Property Impact Study 2012 Executive Summary

Liverpool Street Crossrail Station

Approach Driving Forces Commercial and The study is based on the following A distinct driving force behind Crossrail’s Residential Sectors approach: ability to support development activity and Crossrail will, for the first time, produce a property market values is investment in the • Reviewing previous rail and property direct connection between all of London’s extent, configuration and quality of public impact studies to fully understand the link main business centres, linking Heathrow space immediately around each station. between additional transport capacity with Paddington, the West End, the City and and the associated growth in property All of the developers interviewed as part Canary Wharf. The improvements in journey values and development activity; of this study consider this to be a critical times, the quality of passenger experience requirement in maximising the benefits of and the frequency of rail service provided • Establishing clear “Zones of Influence” Crossrail. Crossrail’s substantial investment in will have significant impacts on London’s around each Crossrail station to show the wider public realm around each station economic performance and new residential the varying impact on commercial and is seen as vital. and commercial investment through a residential values dependent on walking transformational effect on key locations time from the station; Taken together, the new stations, the along the route. development above the stations and the • Selecting appropriate property market planned urban realm improvements have A major ancillary benefit of Crossrail is the indicators to create a baseline value the potential to re-define Crossrail’s stations opportunity for combined impacts with other growth forecast for individual stations, as being the centres of the communities infrastructure and development projects. This local authority areas and line section they serve: attractive places with will provide additional economic benefits averages for the central section entertainment, public art, restaurants and as the agglomeration effects of having (Paddington to Canary Wharf), the west public spaces. Places to spend time in and significant economic drivers located near section (Maidenhead to Acton Main Line) not just to pass through. one another is likely to produce higher overall and the east section (Custom House to outputs. This will be visible at, for example, Abbey Wood and Stratford to Shenfield); Derwent London have concluded that Stratford where Crossrail will interface with “environmental enhancements of • Identifying the additional impact factors High Speed 1 or Custom House where the public realm are a trigger for new that will be reflected in the property value the new station will form part of the wider development activity when supported by uplift attributable to Crossrail by location regeneration of the . improved accessibility by Crossrail”. and market sector in the ten year period Given the strength of existing central London 2012 – 2021; Another critical issue highlighted by office groupings, Crossrail is unlikely to developers is the necessity for local authority • Applying the value uplift factors to the create new markets or major locations of planning policy and decision-making to known development pipeline and new demand in its own right. But it will be create a conducive environment that potentially available land within the instrumental in reinforcing and growing office encourages the development activity zones of influence in order to estimate clusters and supporting occupier demand Crossrail has the potential to stimulate. the total additional value and potential in established office locations. Maintaining development activity that Crossrail will values in high value areas can be as help unlock. important as increasing them in other more modestly priced locations. Image: Derwent London

A distinct driving force affecting Crossrail’s ability to support development activity and property market values will be investment in the quality and availability Tottenham Court Road Crossrail Station, Eastern Ticket Hall of public space immediately around each station

Outside the central section, Crossrail is ; stations along the route, Crossrail has the likely to have a limited impact in terms Tottenham Court Road; potential to have a transformative impact on of generating additional demand for the property market in key locations. These Farringdon; office space. However, there is a selected can be categorised as: group of locations where the wider, Whitechapel; • Creating change – where a substantial contextual changes and strong public Slough; change in current development sector investment and policy impetus may Hayes & Harlington; quantities and types of land use can be combine with Crossrail to create a significant ; expected. change. These locations include Stratford, Custom House and Brentwood. Canary Wharf; • Reinforcing directions – where support is Turning to the retail sector, there is already Custom House; and given to active, in-progress development pressure on traditional bricks and mortar Woolwich. programmes which reflect changing based retailers from online shopping. This property values; pressure is not only driven by price and • Limited impact – where little change to range, but also by service and expertise. Places to Watch the current development context can be High quality total retail, entertainment and expected. leisure environments are now sought out With a headline additional effect on value by consumers and perhaps most critically of some £5.5 billion for the period 2012 – Based on this approach and a synthesis by the retail occupiers that underpin 2021 as well as supporting or influencing of the analysis, it is possible to identify the development. Crossrail will present both the delivery of more than 57,000 new following matrix of “places to watch”. an opportunity and a challenge to many homes and 3.25 million square metres retail locations by increasing access to new of commercial floor space within 1km of shopping centres and central London. Active management of outer London town centres along the Crossrail route will be required. Canary Wharf Ealing Broadway The unique economic characteristics and Tottenham Court Road Custom House global position of London and the south east Creating Slough Woolwich will continue strongly to influence the market change Whitechapel for residential properties. While values in the Southall Farringdon Abbey Wood London residential market did fall during the 2008 recession, prices have, in general, continued to rise in recent years at a higher Maidenhead Bond Street Stratford Paddington Romford rate than the rest of the UK. The influx of Reinforcing Ilford Hayes & Hartington Liverpool Street highly skilled, well paid workers from overseas directions Shenfield Brentwood will continue to drive price rises, particularly in Seven Kings prime and super prime residential markets. Goodmayes Outer London boroughs and areas beyond West Ealing Chadwell Heath Acton Main Line to the west and east are more dependent Harold Wood West Drayton on domestic economic confidence, Limited Langley impact Hanwell Maryland brownfield land capacity and transport Burnham accessibility. Crossrail stations where there Taplow Gidea Park Manor Park are likely to be distinct or large scale impacts Iver on the residential property market include: West Central East Crossrail – Property Impact Study 2012 Executive Summary

Bond Street Crossrail Station, Western Ticket Hall

Ilford Central Section – Paddington to West Section – Maidenhead to Canary Wharf Acton Main Line New, dedicated Crossrail stations along with Crossrail’s significant investment in stations over-site development projects, represent a as well as the improved journey times and truly transformational change in the level and supportive planning policies promoting quality of access and interchange through residential, retail and office growth will the heart of central London. support development and regeneration initiatives. Direct connections to central London from the west and east, removing the need to The effect will be greatest for residential interchange between National Rail, tube or development. Inner zones of influence, of up bus will provide a catalyst for property to 500 metres around the station and often development activity. in close proximity to existing town centres, are likely to see new and enhanced retail The following station locations are identified and leisure provision as part of mixed-use as having the greatest potential to become schemes. key property development locations with significant potential for change: There are clear, available development sites and areas of under-used land in and around • Canary Wharf – providing the new many of the stations, offering developers levels of transport accessibility needed opportunities to bring forward appropriate to unlock additional commercial and schemes. residential capacity, as well as providing access to the wider Isle of Dogs; Retail development opportunities will be mostly focused on defined town centres as • Tottenham Court Road – capitalising part of mixed-use schemes under current on the transformation of the dated planning policies. appearance of the area, the consolidation of land ownerships and Development locations where the greatest the ability to intensify and re-use sites for market activity and potential for significant commercial retail, office and residential property change may be supported by uses; Crossrail are: • Whitechapel – a new station, improved • Ealing Broadway – supporting established accessibility and the availability of large plans for re-development around the potential development sites will support station and along the Uxbridge Road new activity; and towards West Ealing; • Farringdon – increased accessibility • Slough – serving the established Heart and the ability to interchange directly of Slough regeneration programme with Thameslink will open up new and identified development sites for commercial office and related mixed town centre, residential and office use opportunities including residential replacement; and development. • Southall – linking the district centre and local residential areas to central London and advancing development opportunities in the town centre and Southall Gas Works as a major brownfield opportunity. Farringdon

East Section – Custom House to • Woolwich – transformational change in Abbey Wood and Stratford to the immediate station area and more Shenfield widely in the town centre due to Crossrail and the journey improvements offered; The effect on journey times, the ability to make direct journeys into the heart of central • Abbey Wood – a transformational London and the significant benefits in terms change, particularly for new residential of route interchange will drive development development as the new station opens market interest and activity in Crossrail’s up employment opportunities, services eastern section. and facilities elsewhere along the Crossrail route. This potential is likely to be focused primarily on new residential development, due to Collectively these ‘places to watch’ are continued long-term demand for new where Crossrail can be expected to lift housing in , Brentwood and values and therefore enable, support Shenfield. There will also be improved and advance delivery of housing and Liverpool Street accessibility and travel times to commercial schemes. Many of these employment centres. locations have been identified as priority development locations by central and Development locations where the greatest London government, as well as local market activity and potential for significant authorities across the south east. property change will be supported by Crossrail are: Crossrail will boost the economies of London, the wider south east and, by • Custom House – with its supply of extension, the UK. In many locations it will significant development opportunity advance longstanding visions for growth sites, proximity to ExCel, London City and change. Airport, the Siemens demonstration facility and the University of East London will see Crossrail support, accelerate and enhance the wider investment programme for the Royal Docks;

Whitechapel Crossrail Station London West End 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR

London City 80 London EC2V 6EE

Belfast Rose Building Third Floor 16 Howard Street Belfast BT1 6PA

Birmingham 3 Brindleyplace Birmingham B1 2JB

Bristol St Catherine’s Court Berkeley Place Bristol BS8 1BQ

Cardiff One Kingsway Cardiff CF10 3AN

Edinburgh Quayside House 127 Fountainbridge Edinburgh EH3 9QG

Glasgow 206 St Vincent Street Glasgow G2 5SG

Leeds City Point First Floor 29 King Street Leeds LS1 2HL

Liverpool Mercury Court Tithebarn Street Liverpool L2 2QP

Manchester 81 Fountain Street Manchester M2 2EE

Newcastle Central Square Forth Street Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 3PJ

Published by GVA 10 Stratton Street, London W1J 8JR ©2012 Copyright GVA

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