Executive Summary Crossrail Property Impact Study October 2012 gva.co.uk Crossrail – Property Impact Study 2012 Executive Summary Executive Summary Farringdon Crossrail Station, Eastern Ticket Hall The Crossrail Vision Crossrail is among the Crossrail’s vision is for the project to play an • Crossrail will support the delivery of active and broad role in moving London more than 57,000 new homes and 3.25 most significant forward. As well as delivering a world-class million square metres of commercial infrastructure projects railway that fast-tracks the progress of London. office space that have been identified Crossrail will drive progress and leave a for development within 1 kilometre of ever undertaken in the UK. lasting legacy in many different ways. These stations along the route. include skills, employment, public art and From improving journey • Commercial office values around procurement of materials, equipment and Crossrail stations in central London will times across London, services from across the United Kingdom. But increase due to Crossrail over the next perhaps the most immediate and tangible to easing congestion decade, with an uplift of 10 per cent in benefits that Crossrail will unlock include: and offering better capital value above a rising baseline • The creation of new stations and projection. connections, Crossrail will additional rail capacity; change the way people • There will be significant increases in • Enhancing stations and their surrounding residential capital values immediately travel around the capital. urban environments; originating new around stations in central London of some over-site development opportunities 25 per cent and in the suburbs of some 20 Building the new railway above stations; per cent (again above the rising baseline projection in the period). involves constructing • Helping generate and focus 21km of twin-bore tunnels, development and investment activity • Urban realm improvements and the along the route; and development of new schemes above constructing eight new Crossrail stations will act as a highly • Supporting the future economic growth visible and beneficial driver for further stations in central London of the UK, helping to maintain London’s development activity, the intensification status as a global city. and Docklands and of use and in several areas, such as upgrading many existing Crossrail is more than a new rail link, it Farringdon, significant change. Crossrail will be the catalyst for regeneration in will have a transformative effect on stations. Stretching key locations and a driver of London’s the property market and development from Maidenhead and economic growth, in particular from a activity over time. property perspective. Heathrow in the west, Land Securities, one of the UK’s leading across to Shenfield and Crossrail’s property impact property developers considers that “Crossrail will have a positive effect in the long- Abbey Wood in the east, Key findings of this study covering the period term. It has already changed our views the new railway covers 2012-2021 are: on development investment and property acquisitions in areas along the route. • Crossrail is already having an impact on 118 km of track. Crossrail Crossrail is already referred to and used investment decisions. At many locations within marketing material and in occupier services are due to Crossrail will be influential in supporting queries. It will reinforce London as a place and accelerating new development. commence in 2018. to invest, which has got be good.” • Crossrail could help create additional residential and commercial value of as much as £5.5bn along the route between 2012 and 2021. Crossrail has the potential to support new growth of a transformative nature in locations that have been constrained by transport accessibility and have seen lower levels of new development and floorspace in recent years. Tottenham Court Road Station, Western Ticket Hall Paddington Crossrail Station Central St. Giles. Nearest Crossrail Station: Canary Wharf Crossrail Launch Event Tottenham Court Road Crossrail – Property Impact Study 2012 Executive Summary Liverpool Street Crossrail Station Approach Driving Forces Commercial and The study is based on the following A distinct driving force behind Crossrail’s Residential Sectors approach: ability to support development activity and Crossrail will, for the first time, produce a property market values is investment in the • Reviewing previous rail and property direct connection between all of London’s extent, configuration and quality of public impact studies to fully understand the link main business centres, linking Heathrow space immediately around each station. between additional transport capacity with Paddington, the West End, the City and and the associated growth in property All of the developers interviewed as part Canary Wharf. The improvements in journey values and development activity; of this study consider this to be a critical times, the quality of passenger experience requirement in maximising the benefits of and the frequency of rail service provided • Establishing clear “Zones of Influence” Crossrail. Crossrail’s substantial investment in will have significant impacts on London’s around each Crossrail station to show the wider public realm around each station economic performance and new residential the varying impact on commercial and is seen as vital. and commercial investment through a residential values dependent on walking transformational effect on key locations time from the station; Taken together, the new stations, the along the route. development above the stations and the • Selecting appropriate property market planned urban realm improvements have A major ancillary benefit of Crossrail is the indicators to create a baseline value the potential to re-define Crossrail’s stations opportunity for combined impacts with other growth forecast for individual stations, as being the centres of the communities infrastructure and development projects. This local authority areas and line section they serve: attractive places with will provide additional economic benefits averages for the central section entertainment, public art, restaurants and as the agglomeration effects of having (Paddington to Canary Wharf), the west public spaces. Places to spend time in and significant economic drivers located near section (Maidenhead to Acton Main Line) not just to pass through. one another is likely to produce higher overall and the east section (Custom House to outputs. This will be visible at, for example, Abbey Wood and Stratford to Shenfield); Derwent London have concluded that Stratford where Crossrail will interface with “environmental enhancements of • Identifying the additional impact factors High Speed 1 or Custom House where the public realm are a trigger for new that will be reflected in the property value the new station will form part of the wider development activity when supported by uplift attributable to Crossrail by location regeneration of the Royal Docks. improved accessibility by Crossrail”. and market sector in the ten year period Given the strength of existing central London 2012 – 2021; Another critical issue highlighted by office groupings, Crossrail is unlikely to developers is the necessity for local authority • Applying the value uplift factors to the create new markets or major locations of planning policy and decision-making to known development pipeline and new demand in its own right. But it will be create a conducive environment that potentially available land within the instrumental in reinforcing and growing office encourages the development activity zones of influence in order to estimate clusters and supporting occupier demand Crossrail has the potential to stimulate. the total additional value and potential in established office locations. Maintaining development activity that Crossrail will values in high value areas can be as help unlock. important as increasing them in other more modestly priced locations. Image: Derwent London A distinct driving force affecting Crossrail’s ability to support development activity and property market values will be investment in the quality and availability Tottenham Court Road Crossrail Station, Eastern Ticket Hall of public space immediately around each station Outside the central section, Crossrail is Bond Street; stations along the route, Crossrail has the likely to have a limited impact in terms Tottenham Court Road; potential to have a transformative impact on of generating additional demand for the property market in key locations. These Farringdon; office space. However, there is a selected can be categorised as: group of locations where the wider, Whitechapel; • Creating change – where a substantial contextual changes and strong public Slough; change in current development sector investment and policy impetus may Hayes & Harlington; quantities and types of land use can be combine with Crossrail to create a significant Southall; expected. change. These locations include Stratford, Custom House and Brentwood. Canary Wharf; • Reinforcing directions – where support is Turning to the retail sector, there is already Custom House; and given to active, in-progress development pressure on traditional bricks and mortar Woolwich. programmes which reflect changing based retailers from online shopping. This property values; pressure is not only driven by price and • Limited impact – where little change to range, but also by service and expertise. Places to Watch the current