ELECTORAL REVIEW OF THE LONDON BOROUGH OF BRENT WARDING PATTERN SUBMISSION BY THE BRENT CONSERVATIVE GROUP RESPONSE TO THE LGBCE CONSULTATION NOVEMBER 2018 1 | P a g e Introduction Why Brent? During the current London Government Boundary Commission Executive (LGBCE) review process, it has become clear to us that since the previous review in 2000, warding levels have developed out of balance. Brent Council meets the Commission’s criteria for electoral inequality with 7 wards having a variance outside 10%. The outliers are Brondesbury Park at -16% and Tokyngton at 28%. Electoral review process The electoral review will have two distinct parts: Council size – The Brent conservative group welcomes to reduce the number of councillors to 57 from current 63. We appreciate that this will require some existing wards to be redrawn, and recognise that this will represent an opportunity to examine whether the existing boundaries are an appropriate reflection of how Brent has developed since 2000. In addition, the establishment of new developments such as South Kilburn Regeneration, Wembley Regeneration, Alperton and Burnt Oak and Colindale area. Ward boundaries – The Commission will re-draw ward boundaries so that they meet their statutory criteria. Should the Commission require any further detail on our scheme we would be very happy to pass on additional information or to arrange a meeting with Commission members or officers to run through the proposals. 2 | P a g e Interests & identities of local communities The Commission will be looking for evidence on a range of issues to support our reasoning. The best evidence for community identity is normally a combination of factual information such as the existence of communication links, facilities and organisations along with an explanation of how local people use those facilities. Transport links Public transport Ease of travel Community groups Tenants and resident association Charities Religious groups Do these work together? Facilities Shops Medical Services School catchment areas Shared Interests Identifiable boundaries Parks Major Roads Railway lines 3 | P a g e Submission to the Local Government Boundary Commission by the Brent Conservative Group Our response is based on 5 key principles: 1. That there should be a total of 57 Councillors. 2. That the new pattern of wards results in each councillor representing broadly the same number of electors. For Brent this is 4311 per councillor same as their co-councillors. 3. That we seek to maintain the boundaries and integrity of existing, familiar Wards, with minor changes. The warding pattern produced needs to reflect the 2024 electorate ration (+/- 10%) as determined by the LGBCE. 4. That we take account of known or likely significant housing developments in wards such as Queensbury, Tokyngton, Wembley Central and Alperton. 5. That some parts of Brent like Wembley Central and Tokyngton Wards are major destinations in themselves in addition to being residential areas. 4 | P a g e Submission to the Local Government Boundary Commission by the Brent Conservative Group Our proposal is: 1. The scheme we are proposing would see a return to 23 wards, with 11 three-member wards and 12 two-member wards totalling 57 Councillors with the number of electors per councillor being around 4311. We believe that this provides a scheme which not only allows us to ensure strong electoral equality for the future and provide for effective local government, but to best enable the different natures of Brent’s neighbourhoods to be best reflected on the local authority. 2. We believe there are strong arguments for seeking to broadly maintain major characteristics of the existing ward geography. 3. Communities in Brent are defined by many features: by external boundaries such as railway lines and major roads, and also by their internal community identity which may come from historical links, local community groups, the location of facilities, or shared interest. Communities tent not to fit into a numerical straightjacket, so we have used a mix of 2- and 3-member wards. 4. Whilst we accept that it is impossible to perfectly reflect the diversity of Brent wards, we argue that our proposal is as close a good fit as possible and achievable. 5. Using local knowledge of the borough’s history, natural geography, physical infrastructure, demography and community issues we then worked from the ground up to assemble wards which would represent the common identifies and issues of those living within well- defined areas with populations as close as possible to our goal number of 4,311 electors per councillor. 6. We have applied our understanding of the physical and community boundaries of Brent, its history of development, and the many social, economic and demographic factors that are shaping the borough yet to come. 5 | P a g e Brent 2018 Currently has 21 Wards 6 | P a g e Brent 2024 the Conservative Group Propose 23 Wards 7 | P a g e Brent 2024 the Conservative Group Propose 23 Wards 8 | P a g e Conservative Group Proposed warding pattern: Total proposed Electorate 245732 – Year 2024 given to LGBCE Total proposed Number of Councillors – 57, currently 63. Total Proposed wards by Brent Conservative Group 23, current 21 Average Electors per Councillors - 4311 Variance from (+-10%) - Lower level 3880 – Higher Level 4742 The Commission has an obligation, set out in law, to consider electorate forecasts five years after the completion of the review. The purpose of the forecasts is to try and ensure that the review delivers electoral equality for voters in the longer term. We understand and assume that the Commission have already worked with council officers to draw up realistic forecasts for Brent. We have tried to organically grow wards wherever we can so that their historic sense of community is retained. We have also chosen to draw on the existing road networks to help establish wards boundaries, the main roads in the area reflect the communities that are within them and help shape their identity as readily and easily identifiable boundaries 9 | P a g e Conservative Group Proposed warding pattern: Changes to Brent since the 2000 LGBCE review. Brent has changed in several areas since the last review. We strongly feel that housing ought to have an influence on the warding patterns across Council area: Housing Several important changes to both the Council’s planning policy and the National Planning Framework have impacted on the communities that make up the Council area. These include: - The South Kilburn Regeneration plan is a fifteen-year programme. It aims to transform the area into a sustainable and mixed neighbourhood and create a real sense of place and belonging. Bearing this in mind we have tried to keep the community together. The Brent Masterplan aims to deliver the following, 2,400 new high-quality homes of which around 1,200 will be made available to existing South Kilburn existing secure tenants and a new larger high-quality urban park and improved public realm. The plan will see a new primary school and health facilities along with new retail facilities to encourage small businesses to grow. Improved environmental standards have been applied and a site-wide energy solution considered. Wembley regeneration plan is one of the largest regeneration projects in the country. According to the Mayor of London it can accommodate approximately 11,500 new homes and 10,000 new jobs through the development of sites along Wembley High Road and the land around Wembley Stadium. The Burnt Oak and Colindale Growth Area, on the boundary between Brent and Barnet, forms part of the Burnt Oak/Colindale Opportunity Area in the London Plan which directly impacts the current Queensbury and Fryent (proposed Kingsbury) wards. This area is identified in Brent's Core Strategy 2010 and the Site-Specific Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD) 2011 as a growth area for around 2,500 homes by 2026. Alperton regeneration has been designated as a Housing Zone by the Mayor of London. This means over 3,000 new homes will be built in the area with a third being classed as affordable. Alperton has some of the worst quality industrial land in Brent. 10 | P a g e Conservative Group Proposed warding pattern: Row Labels Sum of Cllrs Variance 2024 2024 Quota Projected Electrol per Electrol Councillor provided by the LGBCE the electorate in 1 Alperton 3.00 3 0.0% 12939 4313 2 Barnhill 2.06 2 2.8% 8868 4434 2018 was 224552 In 2024 the 3 Brondesbury Park 2.05 2 8.3% 9242 4621 electorate is proposed to increase to 4 Dudden Hill 2.85 3 -9.1% 12271 4090 246,457 an increase of 21,500. 5 Fryent 2.13 2 6.5% 9184 4592 • We have taken into consideration 6 Gladstone 3.21 3 6.9% 13831 4610 Transport links, shared Interests, 7 Harlesden 2.13 2 6.7% 9203 4601 8 Kensal Green 1.86 2 -7.2% 8003 4002 community groups, worship facilities 9 Kenton 3.23 3 7.7% 13929 4643 etc. 10 Kilburn 2.92 3 -2.7% 12581 4194 • It must be noted that the variance has 11 Mapesbury 2.10 2 4.8% 9035 4518 to be less than +- 10%. This mostly 12 Northwick Park 2.12 2 5.9% 9127 4563 involved moving one or two roads from 13 Preston North 1.78 2 -11.0% 7672 3836 14 Preston South 1.96 2 -2.2% 8433 4217 current ward to another. Little 15 Queen's Park 3.02 3 0.7% 13025 4342 adjustment is needed to make this 16 Queensbury 2.73 3 -9.1% 11755 3918 work, the wards falling pretty 17 Roundwood 2.07 2 3.3% 8904 4452 conveniently into councillor-sized 18 Stonebridge 3.10 3 3.2% 13353 4451 blocks.