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Strategic Panorama 2015 Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies Strategic Panorama 2015 Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies MINISTRY OF DEFENCE Strategic Panorama Spanish Institute for 2015 Strategic Studies MINISTRY OF DEFENCE GENERAL CATALOGUE OF OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS http://www.publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ Publishes: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Author and Publisher, 2015 NIPO: 083-15-162-5 (paper edition) NIPO: 083-15-163-0 (e-book edition) ISBN: 978-84-9091-080-1 (paper edition) ISBN: 978-84-9091-081-8 (e-book edition) Legal deposit: M-15981-2015 Relase date: june 2015 Printed by: Spanish Ministry of Defence The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic, mechanical or print, including photocopies or any other means without prior, express, written con- sent of the © copyright holders. This publication is printed on chlorine-free paper obtained from certified sustainable forestry. INDEX Introduction ............................................................................................................. 9 Security: perception and reality .............................................................................. 13 The map of risks and threats .................................................................................. 19 Oil, at 50 dollars per barrel ..................................................................................... 22 The world in a positive light .................................................................................... 25 The IISS debate .......................................................................................................... 28 Strategic Panorama 2014 ........................................................................................ 30 The challenges of the EU ......................................................................................... 31 MENA, the arc of crisis ............................................................................................. 32 African horizons......................................................................................................... 33 Obama, the end of a mandate ................................................................................. 34 World trade, from Bali to the TTIP .......................................................................... 35 NATO’s future .............................................................................................................. 37 Chapter one Reforms at home, problems in the neighbourhood: the European Union’s external action in 2014 ............................................................... 41 Introduction................................................................................................................. 42 First assessment of the instruments of external action put in place after the Treaty of Lisbon ........................................................................................... 42 European elections in 2014 and new appointments .......................................... 46 Main areas of European external action in 2014 ................................................. 51 European Union defence policy and missions throughout 2014 ...................... 55 The crisis in Ukraine: a long-term problem ......................................................... 58 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 65 Chapter two The Middle East and North Africa: epicentre of uncertainty .............. 69 Introduction................................................................................................................. 71 Continuation and worsening of internal conflicts resulting in regional des- tabilisation ........................................................................................................... 72 Theatres of war in classical terms: Libya, Syria and the Gaza Strip ............... 72 Libya: political chaos, a wasteland in security terms and its influence in the immediate environment ..................................................................... 73 5 Page The war in Syria and its regional consequences ......................................... 75 The Gaza Strip: an unending theatre of warfare .......................................... 77 The regional challenges of the Sahel .................................................................... 78 Instability in Egypt and Yemen ................................................................................ 80 Egypt ..................................................................................................................... 81 Yemen ................................................................................................................... 82 The Israeli-Palestinian conflict beyond the complex theatre of the Gaza Strip ...................................................................................................................... 83 Negotiations with Iran on its nuclear programme .............................................. 84 Developments in Algeria and Morocco .................................................................. 86 Forecasts for the different theatres examined and the consequences for Spain ..................................................................................................................... 88 Conclusions................................................................................................................. 94 Chapter three The challenges of the thousand Africas, the silenced continent ...... 97 Introduction: Africa, a continent of contrasts ....................................................... 99 Classifying the African countries ........................................................................... 100 Challenges .................................................................................................................. 103 Migratory movements............................................................................................... 103 Terrorism .................................................................................................................... 105 Piracy ........................................................................................................................... 109 Armed conflicts .......................................................................................................... 111 Exponential demographic growth .......................................................................... 115 Collective security initiatives................................................................................... 116 Millennium Goals ....................................................................................................... 120 Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger ............................................ 121 Goal 2. Achieve universal primary education ............................................... 122 Goal 3. Promote gender equality and empower women ............................ 123 Goal 4. Reduce mortality among children under five .................................. 125 Goal 5. Improve maternal health .................................................................... 125 Goal 6. Combat HIV/ AIDS, malaria and other diseases ............................. 125 Goal 7. Ensure environmental sustainability by 2015 ................................ 129 Goal 8. Global partnership for development ................................................. 130 Interests and risks for Spain ................................................................................... 130 Chapter four The United States, in pursuit of a new security strategy ..................... 135 Introduction................................................................................................................. 137 The elections .............................................................................................................. 137 A domestic assessment of 2014 ............................................................................ 140 An external assessment .......................................................................................... 143 Without Reagan and without Clinton ...................................................................... 147 The risks of a half-hearted war .............................................................................. 149 Normalisation of relations with Cuba .................................................................... 152 Bilateral relations ...................................................................................................... 154 Chapter five Trade at the service of geopolitics: present and future of the prin- cipal international agreements (from Bali to the TTIP) ................. 157 Introduction................................................................................................................. 159 Twenty years is nothing: the resurgence of the multilateral trade regime at the Bali Ministerial Conference ....................................................................... 161 Instruments of trade geopolitics: regional integration agreements ............... 166 6 Page The European Union, at the forefront of trade regulation ................................
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