Preparing for an Uncertain Climate—Vol

Preparing for an Uncertain Climate—Vol. I October 1993 OTA-O-567 NTIS order #PB94-134640 GPO stock #052-003-01356-8 Recommended Citation: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Preparing for an Uncertain Climate--Volume I, OTA-O-567 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, October 1.993). II For Sale by the U.S, Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328 ISBN 0-16 -042986-2 Foreword reparing for an Uncertain Climate is OTA’S second report on climate change. In 1991, we published Changing by Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases, which focused on ways to reduce the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Slowing the rate of growth in these emissions continues to be very Pimportant, but most analyses conclude that despite international efforts, the Earth is likely to warm several degrees over the next century. Climate change poses many potential problems for human and natural systems, and the long-term effects of climate change on these systems are becoming increasingly important in public policy. For example, international agreements were recently signed on both climate change and biodiversity. Recognizing the potential problems, Congress asked OTA to examine how the Nation can best prepare for an uncertain future climate. This assessment tackles the difficult tasks of assessing how natural and human systems maybe affected by climate change and of evaluating the tools at our disposal to ease adaptation to a warmer climate. Volume 1 addresses coastal areas, water resources, and agriculture; volume 2 includes wetlands, preserved lands, and forests. OTA identifies more than 100 options in the full report that could help ease the transition to an uncertain climate. We categorized a subset of these options as ‘first steps. Options that fall into this group are near-term concerns because they will take a long time to complete, address ‘front-line” or urgent issues that need attention first in order to make better decisions later, can be approached through efforts already under way, are beneficial for reasons other than helping to prepare for climate change, or represent near-term ‘targets of opportunity.‘‘ The United States has put in place an ambitious Global Change Research Program to “observe, understand, and ultimately predict global and regional climate change. ” This effort, which has so far been based overwhelmingly in the physical sciences, is not geared to help make natural resource planning and management decisions, to identify ecosystem- level responses to climate change, or to readily provide policy guidance on mitigation or adaptation. While scientists continue to reduce uncertainty, policy makers will continue to reauthorize environmental legislation, manage natural resources, and develop energy policy. Having mechanisms for integrating research and evaluating reasonable policy routes while we are completing the science would be a valuable addition to the Federal effort. This assessment could help guide these needed improvements. Preparing for an Uncertain Climate was requested by three congressional committees: the Senate Committees on Environment and Public Works and on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. OTA appreciates the support this effort received from hundreds of contributors. Workshop participants, reviewers, contractors, and informal advisors gave us invaluable support as we attempted to sift through the voluminous material on this subject. OTA, however, remains solely responsible for the contents of this report. Roger C. Herdman, Director Iii Helen M. Ingram, Chairman George Hoberg Barbara Miller Director Assistant Professor Senior Civil Engineer Udall Studies in Public Policy Political Science Department Tennessee Valley Authority University of Arizona University of British Columbia Steve Peck Richard M. Adams Henry D. Jacoby Director, Environmental Sciences Professor of Resource Economics Director, Joint Program on the Department Department of Agricultural and Science and Policy Electric Power Research Institute Resource Economics of Global Change Oregon State University Sloan School of Management Herman Shugart Massachusetts Institute of Vera Alexander Technology Department of Environmental Dean, School of Fisheries Sciences and Ocean Sciences Waiter Jarck University of Virginia University of Alaska Corporate Director Forest Resources Phil Sisson Michael J. Bean Georgia-Pacific Corporation Director, Commodities and Senior Attorney Economic Analysis Division Environmental Defense Fund David N. Kennedy Quaker oats Director, California State Margaret Adela Davidson Department of Water Resources Don Wilhite Executive Director Director south Carolina sea Grant Jon Kusier International Drought Consortium Executive Director Information Center Association of State Wetlands University of Nebraska J. Clarence Davies . Managers Director Gary Yohe Center for Risk Management Douglas MacLean Professor Resources for the Future Associate professor Department of Economics Philosophy Department Wesleyan University Baruch Fischhoff University of Maryland Professor of Engineering and Public Policy Jerry Mahlman Carnegie Mellon University Director, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Michael H. Glantz Princeton University program Director Environmental Impacts Group National Center for Atmospheric Research NOTE: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the advisory panelmebrs. The panel does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility:for the report and the accuracy of its contents. iv Project Staff Clyde Behney ROSINA BIERBAUM Sherry Showell Assistant Director, OTA Project Director Analyst Health and Environmental Sciences Division Michael Bowes Nadine Cutler Senior Analyst Research Analyst John Andelin Assistant Director, William Westermeyer Elise Holland to Aug. 31, 1993 Senior Analyst Research Analyst Robert Niblock Jacqueline Courteau Program Manager Analyst Oceans and Environment CONTRACTORS ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF Timothy Beatley Julie Phillips University of Virginia Indexer Kathleen Bell Stanley Changnon Frank Potter Office Administrator Illinois State Water Survey consultant Kimberly Holmlund William Cline Carleton Ray Administrative secretary Institute of International Economics University of Virginia Charles Cooper Theodore Schad Sharon Knarvlk San Diego University consultant William Easterling Daniel Sheer University of Nebraska-Lincoln Water Resources Management, Inc. CONTRIBUTORS Jae Edmonds Joel Smith Pacific Northwest Laboratory RCG/Hagler, Bailley, Inc. Bob Friedman Environmental Defense Fund William Smith Beth Robinson David Gillilan Yale University Mark Zinniker University of Arizona Nick Sundt Patrick Halpin consultant University of Virginia Richard Wahl EDITOR Robert Lilleholm University of Colorado Cynthia Allen Utah State University Scott Warren Editorial services Janice Longstreth Connecticut College Pacific Northwest Laboratory Daniel Willard Geraldine McCormick-Ray Indiana University University of Virginia Mary McKenney consultant Walt Oechel San Diego State University workshop Participants WORKSHOP ON WETLANDS Richard Park WORKSHOP ON FORESTS Indiana University Tom Bancroft Robert Bailey National Audubon Society Karen Poiani University of Georgia Cornell University Ann Bartuska Richard Birdsey U.S. Forest Service Michael Sauer Northeastern Forest Experiment Station North Dakota Department of Health Michael Bean Bruce Bongarten Environmental Defense Fund Charles Segelquist University of Georgia U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Elizabeth Bokman J.E. de Steigeur U.S. Department of the Interior John Simpson U.S. Forest Service Massachusetts Department of Dieter Busch Phil Dougherty Environmental Protection U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Southeastern Forest Experiment Station James Titus Douglas Canning Lauren Fins U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington Department of Ecology University of Idaho John Toliver James Chambers Michael Fosberg U.S. Forest Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric U.S. Forest Service Administration Richard Tomczyk Kathleen Geyer Massachusetts Department of Kevin Erwin U.S. Forest Service Environmental Protection Kevin L. Erwin Consulting Robin Graham Ecologist, Inc. Virginia Van Sickle-Burkett Oak Ridge National Laboratory U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Lee Foote Robert Haack U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Don Voros Michigan State University U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Taber Hand Edward Hansen Association of State Wetlands Scott Warren U.S. Forest Service Connecticut College Managers Roy Hedden Suzette Kimball Dennis Whigham Clemson University Smithsonian Environmental University of Virginia Arnold Holden Research Center James Kundell U.S. Forest Service Daniel Willard The University of Georgia David Le Blanc Indiana University Jon Kusler Ball State University Tom Winter Association of State Wetlands F. Thomas Ledig Managers U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Forest Service Irene Wisheu Bruce Moulton Robert Lilleholm Texas Water Commission University of Ottawa Utah State University Walter Oechel Donald Witherill San Diego State University Maine Department of Environmental Protection VI Rex McCullough Charles Cooper WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE Weyerhaeuser Company San Diego State University TREATIES AND MODELS Stephen Nodvin Doug FOX Dan Bodansky University of Tennessee U.S. Forest Service University of Washington

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