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Resilience Potential: Assessing Jamaica's “Bounce-Back” from Hurricane Dean
Resilience Potential: Assessing Jamaica’s “Bounce-Back” from Hurricane Dean CaPRI is a Caribbean think tank that promotes evidence- based policymaking in the region. CaPRI espouses a methodology which is built on the values of multi- disciplinary work, team work and the utilization of the diaspora in our search for evidence. Committed to the region’s development, CaPRI has strong linkages with the academic community, the private sector and civil society. For information and feedback, please contact: Caribbean Policy Research Institute GUANGO TREE HOUSE, 29 MUNROE ROAD, KINGSTON 6 JAMAICA, W.I. TEL: (876) 970-3447 (876) 970-2910 FAX: (876) 970-4544 E-mail: [email protected] WEBSITE: http://www.takingresponsibility.org 2 Table of Contents Pages List of Figures, Tables and Boxes .............................................................4 Preface......................................................................................................5 Executive Summary .................................................................................6-7 Introduction: Resilience Potential ...........................................................8-9 1. Natural Disasters: The Global Context................................................10-13 2. Natural Disasters in the Caribbean .....................................................14-18 3. Changing Practices in Disaster Management…………………………19-20 4. Disaster Management in Jamaica .....................................................21 4.1 National Disaster Plan…………………………………………….21 -
Presentation
10B.5 VORTICITY-BASED DETECTION OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS Michelle M. Hite1*, Mark A. Bourassa1,2, Philip Cunningham2, James J. O’Brien1,2, and Paul D. Reasor2 1Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 2Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 1. INTRODUCTION (2001) relied upon closed circulations apparent in the scatterometer data. Using a threshold of Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG), although an vorticity over a defined area, Sharp et al. (2002) already well researched area, remains a highly identified numerous tropical disturbances and debatable and unresolved topic. While assessed whether or not they were likely to considerable attention has been paid to tropical develop into tropical cyclones. Detection was cyclone formation, little attention has focused on based on surface structure, requiring sufficiently observational studies of the very early stages of strong vorticity averaged over a large surface TCG, otherwise referred to as the genesis stage. area. Unlike Sharp et al. (2002), Katsaros et al. In the past, the early stages of TCG were (2001) and Liu et al. (2001) concentrated on unverifiable in surface observations, due to the disturbances that would develop into classified paucity of meteorological data over the tropical tropical cyclones. They examined surface wind oceans. The advent of wide swath scatterometers patterns and looked for areas of closed circulation, helped alleviate this issue by affording the successfully detecting tropical disturbances before scientific community with widespread designation as depressions. These studies observational surface data across the tropical illustrated the usefulness of SeaWinds data basins. One such instrument is the SeaWinds towards tropical disturbance detection, with the scatterometer, aboard the QuikSCAT satellite, intent of improving operational activities. -
Investigation and Prediction of Hurricane Eyewall
INVESTIGATION AND PREDICTION OF HURRICANE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES By Matthew Sitkowski A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON 2012 Date of final oral examination: 4/9/12 The dissertation is approved by the following members of the Final Oral Committee: James P. Kossin, Affiliate Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Daniel J. Vimont, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Steven A. Ackerman, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Jonathan E. Martin, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Gregory J. Tripoli, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences i Abstract Flight-level aircraft data and microwave imagery are analyzed to investigate hurricane secondary eyewall formation and eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). This work is motivated to provide forecasters with new guidance for predicting and better understanding the impacts of ERCs. A Bayesian probabilistic model that determines the likelihood of secondary eyewall formation and a subsequent ERC is developed. The model is based on environmental and geostationary satellite features. A climatology of secondary eyewall formation is developed; a 13% chance of secondary eyewall formation exists when a hurricane is located over water, and is also utilized by the model. The model has been installed at the National Hurricane Center and has skill in forecasting secondary eyewall formation out to 48 h. Aircraft reconnaissance data from 24 ERCs are examined to develop a climatology of flight-level structure and intensity changes associated with ERCs. Three phases are identified based on the behavior of the maximum intensity of the hurricane: intensification, weakening and reintensification. -
UNDERSTANDING the GENESIS of HURRICANE VINCE THROUGH the SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY EQUATION Kwan-Yin Kong City College of New York 1 1
9B.4 UNDERSTANDING THE GENESIS OF HURRICANE VINCE THROUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY EQUATION Kwan-yin Kong City College of New York 1 1. INTRODUCTION 20°W Hurricane Vince was one of the many extraordinary hurricanes that formed in the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Unlike Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, Vince was remarkable not because of intensity, nor the destruction it inflicted, but because of its defiance to our current understandings of hurricane formation. Vince formed in early October of 2005 in the far North Atlantic Ocean and acquired characteristics of a hurricane southeast of the Azores, an area previously unknown to hurricane formation. Figure 1 shows a visible image taken at 14:10 UTC on 9 October 2005 when Vince was near its peak intensity. There is little doubt that a hurricane with an eye surrounded by convection is located near 34°N, 19°W. A buoy located under the northern eyewall of the hurricane indicated a sea-surface temperature (SST) of 22.9°C, far below what is considered to be the 30°N minimum value of 26°C for hurricane formation (see insert of Fig. 3f). In March of 2004, a first-documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean also formed over SST below this Figure 1 Color visible image taken at 14:10 UTC 9 October 2005 by Aqua. 26°C threshold off the coast of Brazil. In addition, cyclones in the Mediterranean and polar lows in sub-arctic seas had been synoptic flow serves to “steer” the forward motion of observed to acquire hurricane characteristics. -
San Juan, Puerto Rico 9/25/2007
NWS Form E-5 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) (04-2006) NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION (PRES. BY NWS Instruction 10-924) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Juan, Puerto Rico REPORT FOR: MONTHLY REPORT OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS MONTH YEAR August 2007 SIGNATURE TO: Hydrologic Information Center, W/OS31 Althea Austin-Smith, NOAA’s National Weather Service Service Hydrologist 1325 East West Highway DATE Silver Spring, MD 20910-3283 9/25/2007 When no flooding occurs, include miscellaneous river conditions below the small box, such as significant rises, record low stages, ice conditions, snow cover, droughts, and hydrologic products issued (NWS Instruction 10-924). An X inside this box indicates that no flooding occurred within this hydrologic service area. Summary: The San Juan ASOS reported 3.44 inches of rain for the month of August …1.78 inches less than the normal of 5.22 inches. The ASOS rainfall report at Truman Field in St. Thomas reported 0.29 inches of rain for the month of August …3.21 inches less than the normal of 6.49 inches. For graphics of August rainfall for Puerto Rico: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/alr/monthly/pr_2007_aug.htm The big meteorological event in August was the passage of Hurricane Dean to the south of the Islands. Dean’s history is as follows: A strong tropical wave moved across the Tropical Atlantic from near the west coast of Africa eventually spawning a tropical cyclone that became Hurricane Dean. Dean was the classic mid August Cape Verde Storm that entered the eastern Caribbean and intensified into a major hurricane. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
HUGH EDWARD WILLOUGHBY Professional Biography Department of Earth and Environment 7009 SW 66Ave
HUGH EDWARD WILLOUGHBY Professional Biography Department of Earth and Environment 7009 SW 66Ave. Florida International University Miami, FL 33143 MMC/AHC5-363 (305) 665–4080 Miami, FL 33199 [email protected] (305) 348-0243 EDUCATION: Ph.D., 1977. Atmospheric Science. University of Miami, Miami, Florida. M.S., 1969. Meteorology. United States Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. B.S. (Distinction), 1967. Geophysics–Geochemistry. University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona. CURRENT POSITION: Distinguished Research Professor, Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, January 2006-present. Teaches Meteorology and in the newly established Academic Track in Atmospheric Sciences within FIU’s Geosciences Major. Conducts individual research on hurricane motion, structure, intensity, and effects. EXPERIENCE: Professor and Senior Scientist, International Hurricane Research Center, Florida International University, December 2002-November 2005. Formulated research programs to study and mitigate hurricane impacts and carried out individual research on hurricane motion, structure, intensity and effects. Director, NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, 1995– 2002. Responsible for scientific, programmatic, and administrative direction of HRD, 30 people, 14 PhDs, annual budget $4-5M. HRD’s mission was improvement of both basic physical understanding and operational forecasting of tropical cyclones and of tropical weather in general. A key aspect of this mission was an annual program of research flights into severe tropical weather. Research Meteorologist, HRD, 1975–1995. Designed and executed observational studies of hurricanes using instrumented research aircraft, formulated theoretical and numerical models of tropical cyclone motion and development, and reported the results of these investigations in the refereed literature and at national and international meetings. Made more than 400 research and reconnaissance flights into the eyes of typhoons and hurricanes. -
Learning from Hurricane Hugo: Implications for Public Policy
LEARNING FROM HURRICANE HUGO: IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICY prepared for the FEDERAL INSURANCE ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY 500 C Street, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20472 under contract no. EMW-90-G-3304,A001 June 1992 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ............................... 1.............I PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORM . 3 Wind Speeds .3 IMPACTS ON NATURAL SYSTEMS 5 ................................ Biological Systems ....... .................................5 Dunes and Beaches ....... .5............................... Beach Nourishment . .................................7 IMPACTS ON HUMANS AND HUMAN SYSTEMS ............................ 9 Deaths and Injuries ............................ 9 Housing ............................ 9 Utilities ................... 10 Transportation Systems .1................... 10 The Economy ................... 11 Psychological Effects ................... 11 INSURANCE .......................... 13 COASTAL DEVELOPMENT .......................... 14 Setbacks ........................... 15 Coastal Protection Structures .......................... 16 PERFORMANCE OF STRUCTURES ..... .... 18 Effects of Wind and/or Water ...... .... 18 Effects of Water, Waves, or Erosion . .. .18 Effects of Wind .............. .... 19 Foundations .................. .... 21 Slabs ................ .... 22 Piers and Columns ....... .... 22 Pilings............... .... 22 Elevation .................. .... 23 Lower Area Enclosures .... .... 23 Connections ................. ....24 Manufactured Housing .......... .... 24 -
MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO Diploma Thesis
MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Declaration I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography. I agree with the placing of this thesis in the library of the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University and with the access for academic purposes. Brno, 30th March 2018 …………………………………………. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. for his kind help and constant guidance throughout my work. Bc. Lukáš Opavský OPAVSKÝ, Lukáš. Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis; Diploma Thesis. Brno: Masaryk University, Faculty of Education, English Language and Literature Department, 2018. XX p. Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Annotation The purpose of this thesis is an analysis of a corpus comprising of opening sentences of articles collected from the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. Four different quality categories from Wikipedia were chosen, from the total amount of eight, to ensure gathering of a representative sample, for each category there are fifty sentences, the total amount of the sentences altogether is, therefore, two hundred. The sentences will be analysed according to the Firabsian theory of functional sentence perspective in order to discriminate differences both between the quality categories and also within the categories. -
Mesoscale Observations of the Genesis of Hurricane Dolly (1996)
SEPTEMBER 2005 R E A S O R E T A L . 3151 Mesoscale Observations of the Genesis of Hurricane Dolly (1996) PAUL D. REASOR AND MICHAEL T. MONTGOMERY Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado LANCE F. BOSART Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (Manuscript received 17 August 2004, in final form 23 February 2005) ABSTRACT Recent numerical studies of tropical cyclone genesis suggest a new paradigm for how the surface vortex is established based on a highly nonaxisymmetric mechanism involving the interaction of low-level cyclonic circulations generated by deep cumulonimbus convection. A reexamination of mesoscale observations during the genesis of Hurricane Guillermo (1991) confirms the presence of multiple cyclonic circulations. More recently, airborne Doppler radar wind observations during the genesis of Atlantic Hurricane Dolly (1996) also reveal multiple lower-to-middle-tropospheric mesoscale cyclonic circulations during sequential 15–20-min compositing periods. A particularly well-organized, but initially weak (mean tangential wind of7msϪ1), low-level cyclonic vortex embedded within the pre-Dolly tropical disturbance is observed coincident with deep, vertically penetrating cumulonimbus convection. The earliest observations of this vortex show the peak circulation near 2-km height with a mean diameter of 30–40 km. The circulation undergoes a slight intensification over a 2-h period, with the maximum tangential winds ultimately peaking below 1-km height. Approximately 18 h after these observations Dolly is classified as a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center. A synthesis of observations during the early development of Dolly supports a stochastic view of tropical cyclone genesis in which multiple lower-to-middle-tropospheric mesoscale cyclonic circulations are involved in building the surface cyclonic circulation. -
Introduction
Statistical analysis of cyclone activity for Guadeloupe Irina Nikolkina*,**, Narcisse Zahibo*, and Ira Didenkulova*** *Laboratory of Tropical and Atmospheric Physics, University of Antilles Guyane, Guadeloupe (F.W.I.), France **Department of Applied Mathematics, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia *** Institute of Cybernetics, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia First International Caribbean Waves: Risk Evaluation of Natural Hazards in the Caribbean, Pointe-a-Pitre, Guadeloupe, 9 – 10 December 2008 Introduction The French West Indies located in the Lesser Antilles, North Atlantic have a huge experience of tropical cyclones. Cyclones produce some harm by terrific wind speed, abnormal precipitations and sea action. Historically, storm surge inundation has been the most destructive. Damage caused in Sainte-Anne (Guadeloupe) by hurricane Hugo, 1989 First International Caribbean Waves: Risk Evaluation of Natural Hazards in the Caribbean, Pointe-a-Pitre, Guadeloupe, 9 – 10 December 2008 Introduction Recently, (Zahibo et al., 2007) has studied the cyclone activity in Guadeloupe for 1635–2000, and evaluated the return period of cyclones: TC=⋅0.67 exp( 0.60 ⋅) where C is category, and T is measured in years. In average, the cyclone, which can be categorized, occurred almost each year. Cyclone with category more than 1 occurs Return period versus cyclone categories (Zahibo et al., 2007) each 2.3. The strongest cyclones with category more 2, 3 and 4 occur where C is category, and T is measured in years each 4, 7.6 and 13.4 years, respectively First International Caribbean Waves: Risk Evaluation of Natural Hazards in the Caribbean, Pointe-a-Pitre, Guadeloupe, 9 – 10 December 2008 Introduction The most disastrous hurricane occurred in Guadeloupe on September, 17, 1989.