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Political Turmoil in Lebanon, Iraq Signals Failure of Iran's Proxy Model

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Political Turmoil in Lebanon, Iraq Signals Failure of Iran's Proxy Model UK £2 Issue 229, Year 5 EU €2.50 November 3 , 2019 www.thearabweekly.com How the Deal The Carthage of the Century Film Festival became old news in Tunisia Page 13 Page 22 Political turmoil in Lebanon, Iraq signals failure of Iran’s proxy model Samar Kadi and Hezbollah is perturbed, which means Iran is perturbed, too,” he said. Beirut Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, said: he resignation of Lebanese “The resignation is a blow to the Prime Minister Saad Hariri, whole political system and Hezbol- which came in defiance of lah might be the most affected be- T the powerful, Iran-backed cause it is the strongest entity in that Hezbollah, was described as a blow system that serves its interests.” to the Shia group and parties of the However, he said, that doesn’t ruling class blamed for corruption mean Hezbollah is “weakened” be- and mismanagement that pushed cause it is “still the dominant power the country to the brink of economic and holds many cards” it could use. US wavering. Russian troops on patrol with Turkish forces in the countryside of the town of Darbasiyah collapse. The protests in Lebanon, similar in Syria’s north-eastern Hasakah province on the border with Turkey, November 1. (AFP) Hezbollah Secretary-General Has- to those in Iraq, were fuelled by lo- san Nasrallah had voiced opposition cal grievances and mainly directed to a government change, warning at political elites but they also posed against a political vacuum while a challenge to Iran, which closely suggesting that some protesters backs both governments as well As Russians extend footprint, were financed by the group’s foreign as powerful armed groups in each adversaries and implementing their country. agendas. However, that did not stop Hariri from resigning after he said Ayham Kamel, US troops move back into Syria MENA practice head at his efforts to defuse the crisis sweep- ing Lebanon since October 17 had hit Eurasia Group Thomas Seibert tion Units (YPG) militia, a crucial US “state banditry.” In the meanwhile, a dead end. ally, on October 6 by declaring that its troops extended their footprint Hariri’s exit was largely regarded the approximately 1,000 US troops in Syria by taking part in joint patrols as a setback to Hezbollah, the only “The protests in both Iraq Istanbul deployed in Syria would leave the with Turkish forces. armed faction in Lebanon, but it also and Lebanon are primarily country. The return of the US troops could placed the other political groups in about local politics and a n a yet another reversal of US Three days later, Turkey, a sworn provide protection for the YPG his coalition government in the same corrupt political class that has policy in Syria that could trigger enemy of the YPG, launched a cross- against Turkey. Ilham Ehmed, presi- uncomfortable situation, be they failed to deliver.” new tensions with Moscow, Da- border operation to push the Kurdish dent of the political arm of the YPG- Hezbollah’s allies or rivals, said po- I mascus and Ankara, Washington fighters back from the Turkish-Syrian dominated Syrian Defence Forces, litical analyst Amine Kammourieh. A surprise visit to Baghdad by Ira- is sending US troops back into the border and create a “safe zone” to accused Turkey of violating the “Definitely, Hezbollah is in an nian Major-General Qassem Soleim- country only weeks after President resettle millions of Syrian refugees ceasefire in north-eastern Syria with awkward position as well as all the ani, commander of the elite al-Quds Donald Trump ordered their with- from Turkey. repeated attacks. other political forces. It is embar- Force and architect of Iran’s regional drawal. Once the new US deployments are US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rassed with the people from its own security apparatus, signalled Teh- The deployment follows repeated complete, Washington could have as used a telephone conversation with (Shia) community who have voiced ran’s concern over the protests. statements by Trump that the United many as 900 soldiers in Syria, just Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Ca- grievances and demands for re- “The protests in both Iraq and States would secure oil fields in east- 100 fewer than before Trump’s with- vusoglu to demand Ankara’s compli- forms,” Kammourieh said. Lebanon are primarily about local ern Syria. drawal order. ance with the ceasefire agreed by An- “Hezbollah is also annoyed to politics and a corrupt political class The goal of the new US mission was US officials said one goal of the kara and Washington in mid-October. see ‘an essential partner’ like Saad that has failed to deliver,” Ayham to “defeat” remnants of the Islamic troop return would be to safeguard “The secretary noted our position Hariri, whom it considered a link Kamel, MENA practice head at Eura- State (ISIS), “protect critical infra- oil revenue for the YPG to enable the requiring that the Turkish military, with the West, walk out. If you look sia Group, told the Associated Press. structure & deny ISIS access to rev- Kurdish militia to keep guarding ISIS the Turkish-supported Syrian oppo- around, you can see that they are all The protests “showcase the failure enue sources,” the US-led anti-ISIS prisoners. sition forces, and the withdrawal of shaken. The toppling of the govern- of the proxy model [in which] Iran is coalition posted on Twitter. Syrian President Bashar Assad YPG forces be in accordance with the ment is a blow to all the ruling class.” able to expand influence but its al- The coalition published pictures of said on state television that Trump’s statement regarding the safe zone,” Kammourieh argued that it was lies are unable to effectively govern,” US armoured vehicles being loaded decision to keep US troops in Syria the US State Department said in a too early to assess the damage that Kamel said. on to a transport plane for the de- showed that Washington was a colo- statement. each group had sustained. “The re- ployment in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor prov- nial power. gime is feeling awkward. Hariri is not Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly ince. Russia, Assad’s main interna- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly to be envied because he was a party travel and society editor. Trump shocked his own support- tional partner, expressed outrage at correspondent. in the arrangement under which the ers and the Kurdish People’s Protec- Trump’s claim to the oil, calling it P2-3,12,17 outgoing government was formed P4-7,15 ‘Davos in the Desert’ a major draw for world business and finance The Arab Weekly staff after the killing of Saudi journal- “I have been coming to Saudi “This includes a big privatisation ist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Arabia for 20 years but what I programme and looser regulatory Consulate in Istanbul in October have been seeing particularly in framework.” London last year. the past two or three years is (eco- Saudi officials said they signed Business and finance oppor- nomic) transformation,” Ambani more than two dozen investment orld leaders and econ- tunities in the kingdom were the told participants at the confer- deals worth $15 billion in sectors omy titans from 30 draw for financiers chasing a po- ence. such as manufacturing and tech- countries converged tential windfall from the expected On the sidelines of FII, Europe- nology. W on Riyadh for the stock listing of state-owned oil gi- an investor 01 Ventures received The agreements included a $120 third Saudi investment confer- ant Aramco. a licence from the Saudi Arabian million investment deal between ence that sought to enhance col- “There is massive potential,” an General Investment Authority to Saudi Arabian General Investment laboration on issues such as sus- executive from a Singapore-based establish a tech investment fund Authority and BRF Brazil Foods. tainability, technology and the manufacturer of engineering worth millions of dollars. There was also a memorandum future of societies. equipment said. The event was an opportunity of understanding signed between Among the more than 300 fig- Larry Fink, CEO of asset man- for the kingdom to showcase its Samsung and Saudi entertainment ures who attended the three-day agement company Blackrock, and eagerness to reshape its economy resort Qiddiya. Future Investment Initiative (FII), Stephen Schwarzman, head of pri- by diversifying its activities from “It’s better to help Saudis build dubbed “Davos in the Desert,” vate equity firm Blackstone, par- oil. their future rather than sit back were senior US officials and heads ticipated in panels and addressed Major draw. Delegates chat “Saudi Arabia is running an am- and do nothing and complain,” of global banks and sovereign Saudi reforms. near a robot during the Future bitious socioeconomic plan to at- Rudolph Waels, founder of consul- wealth funds. Other panellists included Indian Investment Initiative forum at tract investors and social change,” tancy Armalia Partners, who said The event’s popularity sug- tycoon Mukesh Ambani, Indian the King Abdulaziz Conference Steen Jakobsen, chief economist he has attended all three FIIs, told gested that Riyadh has bounced Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Centre in Riyadh, October 30. and chief investment officer at Agence France-Presse. back from the pressure it faced Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. (AFP) Saxo Bank, told the Saudi Gazette. P8 2 November 3 , 2019 Cover Story Killing of ISIS leader exposes deep rift in US-Turkish ties Thomas Seibert Iraq, hundreds of kilometres away. toman Empire as “genocide” and Selim Sazak, research director Turkey said Ankara and Washing- called for sanctions against Turkey at consultancy TUM Strategy in ton had cooperated in the operation over its latest incursion into Syria.
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