No.

In the Arab Republic of JICA Preparatory Survey On Greater Metro Line No.4 Ministry of Transport, National Authority for Tunnels The Arab Republic of Egypt

JICA Preparatory Survey On Metro Line No.4 In the Arab Republic of Egypt

FINAL REPORT Volume 2 FINAL REPORT (Feasibility Study Report 2) (Feasibility Study Report 2) Volume 2

JUNE 2010

JUNE 2010 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. JAPAN RAILWAY TECHNICAL SERVICE NIPPON CIVIC CONSULTING ENGINEERS CO., LTD

EID JR 10-125 No.

In the Arab Republic of Egypt JICA Preparatory Survey On Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4 Ministry of Transport, National Authority for Tunnels The Arab Republic of Egypt

JICA Preparatory Survey On Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4 In the Arab Republic of Egypt

FINAL REPORT Volume 2 FINAL REPORT (Feasibility Study Report 2) (Feasibility Study Report 2) Volume 2

JUNE 2010

JUNE 2010 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. JAPAN RAILWAY TECHNICAL SERVICE NIPPON CIVIC CONSULTING ENGINEERS CO., LTD

EID JR 10-125

JICA Preparatory Survey on Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4 in the Arab Republic of Egypt

CONTENTS OF FINAL REPORT

Volume 1 : Feasibility Study Report 1 Data Collection, Diagnosis of the Existing Public Transport System and Urban Development Hypothesis

Volume 2 : Feasibility Study Report 2 New Transportation Study, Data Analysis and Alternative Corridors for Greater Cairo Metro Line No. 4

Volume 3 : Feasibility Study Report 3/4 Preliminary design on Greater Cairo Metro Phase 1 and Economic Financial Analysis

Volume 4 : Drawings

Exchange Rates 1.00 LE = JPY17.28 USD1.00 = JPY95.25 USD1.00 = 5.512 LE

Preface

In response to the request from the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Government of Japan decided to conduct “JICA Preparatory Survey on Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4”, and entrusted the study and to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

JICA selected and dispatched a study team consisted of Nippon Koei Co. Ltd., Japan Railway Technical Service (JARTS) and Nippon Civic Consulting Engineer Co. Ltd, headed by Mr. Hiroshi Izawa, between February 2009 to May 2010.

The team conducted field surveys at the study area and held discussions with the officials concerned of the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Having completed them, now the team prepared this final report.

I hope that this report will greatly contribute to the construction and operation of the Metro Line No.4 for the urban transportation in Greater Cairo, as well as to enhancement of friendly relationship between our two countries.

Finally, I wish to express my sincere appreciation to the officials concerned of the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt for their close cooperation to the project.

June 2010

Kiyoshi Kodera Vice President Japan International Cooperation Agency

LOCATION MAP

TABLE OF CONTENTS

JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4 IN THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

Final Report Volume 2

New Transportation Study, Data Analysis and Alternative Corridors for Greater Cairo Metro Line No. 4

PREFACE LOCATION MAP TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES LIST OF APPENDIXES GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS AND MEASURING UNITS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF VOLUME 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 Introduction...... 1-1 1.1 Background of the Study ...... 1-1 1.2 Objective of the Study ...... 1-2 1.3 Study Area and Administrative Setting ...... 1-3

CHAPTER 2 Transportation Study ...... 2-1 2.1 Transport Survey...... 2-1 2.1.1 Introduction...... 2-1 2.1.2 Summary of Previous Survey...... 2-1 2.1.3 Components and Purpose of Transport Survey ...... 2-7 2.1.4 Link Traffic Count Survey ...... 2-7 (1) Survey Locations...... 2-7 (2) Vehicle Types...... 2-10 (3) Traffic Count Period ...... 2-10 2.1.5 Screen Line Traffic Count Survey...... 2-10 (1) Screen Line Locations...... 2-10 (2) Screen Line Traffic Count Periods...... 2-12 2.1.6 Traffic Count Data Analysis...... 2-13 (1) at Bridge (SL1)...... 2-13 (2) Abbas Bridge (SL2) ...... 2-15 2.1.7 Interview Survey...... 2-17 (1) Sample Size and Used Forms...... 2-17 (2) Survey Locations and Dates...... 2-17 (3) Training ...... 2-22 (4) Data Processing ...... 2-22 (5) Data Analysis ...... 2-24 2.1.8 Interview Survey for Tourist...... 2-31 (1) Survey Location...... 2-31 (2) Sample Size and Survey Form...... 2-31 2.2 Urbanization and Socio-Economic Development Trends within the Study Area until 2050 ...... 2-32 2.2.1 Future Patterns of Urbanization...... 2-32 2.2.2 Population Projections...... 2-34

Final Report - Volume 2 (i) JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

(1) Population Projection for Metro Line 4 Study Area...... 2-34 (2) Population Projections for Study Sectors ...... 2-36 2.2.3 Employment Projections...... 2-40 (1) Employment Projection for Metro Line 4 Study Area...... 2-40 (2) Employment Projections for Study Sectors ...... 2-42 2.2.4 Projected Student Enrolments...... 2-45 (1) Student Enrolment Projections for the Study Area ...... 2-45 (2) Student Enrolment Projections for Study Sectors...... 2-46 2.2.5 Car Ownership Projections...... 2-49 2.2.6 Summarized Transport Planning Indicators ...... 2-51 2.3 Analysis of Transport Demand and Services...... 2-52 2.3.1 Metro Network Service in Greater Cairo Region ...... 2-52 2.3.2 Trend of Metro Demand ...... 2-52 2.3.3 Preferences and Choices of Cairo Metro Users ...... 2-54 (1) Socio-economic Characteristics of Metro Line 2 users...... 2-55 (2) Trip Characteristics ...... 2-55 (3) Preferences of Metro Line users ...... 2-56 2.3.4 Egyptian National Railways (ENR) Suburban Railway Service and Demand...... 2-56 2.3.5 Bus Service ...... 2-58 2.3.6 Existing Road Network in Greater Cairo Region ...... 2-59 2.3.7 Existing Traffic Demand on Regional Roads...... 2-59 2.4 Description of Transport Demand Forecasting Model ...... 2-60 2.4.1 Methodology...... 2-60 (1) Transportation Model Structure ...... 2-60 (2) Zone System in Study Area...... 2-62 (3) Modelling and Forecasting Tools...... 2-62 2.4.2 Trip Generation and Attraction Models...... 2-63 (1) Modelling Trip Generation and Attraction by Zone ...... 2-63 (2) Verification of Trip Generation and Attraction Models ...... 2-63 2.4.3 Trip Distribution Model ...... 2-64 (1) Modelling Trip Distribution...... 2-64 (2) Validation of Trip Distribution Model...... 2-64 2.4.4 Modal Choice Model...... 2-65 (1) Methodology of modelling modal split among private mode, public mode and metro ...... 2-65 (2) Modal Choice Model for Private Car Share ...... 2-66 (3) Modal Choice Model for Metro Mode Share ...... 2-68 2.4.5 Trip Assignment Model...... 2-70 2.5 Estimation of Present and Future Transportation Demand Matrix...... 2-71 2.5.1 Trip generation and attraction in the present and future...... 2-72 2.5.2 Trip Distribution (OD Matrix) by All Transportation Mode ...... 2-72 2.5.3 Present and Future Modal Split...... 2-76 (1) Modal Share between Car, Bus and Rail Mode...... 2-76 (2) Rail Mode Trips by Sector Zone ...... 2-76 (3) Rail Mode OD Matrix by Sector Zone...... 2-77 2.6 Estimation of Present and Future Metro Passengers ...... 2-83 2.6.1 Metro Passengers by Line No...... 2-83 2.6.2 Station and Section Passengers for Metro Line 4 Phase 1 ...... 2-84 2.7 Conceptual Analysis of Bus Feeder Service and Transit Facility Plan...... 2-86 2.7.1 Modal Choice Decisions for Feeder Transport ...... 2-86 2.7.2 Overall Conceptual Design of Modal Interchange Facilities ...... 2-87 (1) Modal Interchanges for Terminal Stations...... 2-87 (2) Pick-up and Set-down Facilities for Other Stations ...... 2-90 2.7.3 Methods and Approach for Determination of Feeder Transport Requirements...... 2-91 2.7.4 Institutional Changes Needed for Better Integration of Metro and Feeder Transport...... 2-96

Final Report - Volume 2 (ii) JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

CHAPTER 3 Track Alignment study for phase 1 section ...... 3-1 3.1 Basic Concept of Route Selection ...... 3-1 3.2 Basic Design Parameter Related with Route Selection...... 3-1 3.3 El Malek El Saleh to El Remayah Square ...... 3-2 3.3.1 Basic Policy for Route Selection and Station Location ...... 3-2 3.3.2 Route Selection...... 3-3 (1) Existing Structures and Hazards on the Route...... 3-3 (2) Route Comparison Between PYRAMIDS Road and King Faisal Road ...... 3-3 (3) Case Study of Avoiding Flyover Route...... 3-10 (4) The Intersection of Pyramids Road with Alexandria Desert Road ...... 3-14 (5) Proposed Route ...... 3-14 3.3.3 Station Locations...... 3-18 (1) M4W-Sta.1 (El Malek El Saleh Station)...... 3-18 (2) M4W-Sta.2 (El Rauda Station) ...... 3-19 (3) M4W-Sta.3 (El Station)...... 3-19 (4) M4W-Sta.4 (El Giza Station) ...... 3-19 (5) M4W-Sta.5 to M4W- Sta.9...... 3-19 (6) M4W-Sta.10 ...... 3-19 (7) M4W-Sta.11 ...... 3-19 (8) M4W-Sta.12 (El Remayah Square) ...... 3-20 3.3.4 Type of Structures ...... 3-20 3.4 El Remayah Square to Depot/Workshop...... 3-21 3.4.1 Location of Depot/Workshop ...... 3-21 3.4.2 Alignment from El Remayah Square to Depot/Workshop...... 3-24 3.5 List of Hard Points ...... 3-24

CHAPTER 4 Route Selection for Phase 2 Section ...... 4-1 4.1 Transportation Demand...... 4-1 4.1.1 Population by the Distance From/To the Stations ...... 4-1 4.1.2 Future Land Use by the Distance From/To the Stations...... 4-2 4.1.3 Potential Metro Passenger Demand in the Future...... 4-2 4.1.4 Findings from the Viewpoint of Demand Forecasting ...... 4-3 4.2 Routes Setting of Alternative Routes...... 4-4 4.2.1 Alternative Route 1: Northern Route Proposed by CREATS Report (El Malek El Saleh – El Sawaha Square - Ring Road Exit No. 18) ...... 4-4 4.2.2 Alternative Route 2: Eastern Route Proposed by SYSTRA Study (El Malek El Saleh - - Ring Road) ...... 4-4 4.3 Construction Hard Points...... 4-6 4.3.1 Identified the Hard Points in Each Alternative ...... 4-6 (1) Alternative Route 1: Northern Route ...... 4-6 (2) Alternative 2: Eastern Route...... 4-12 4.4 Construction Methodology...... 4-12 4.4.1 Structure Selection ...... 4-12 (1) Northern Route...... 4-13 (2) Eastern Route ...... 4-13 4.4.2 Methodology of Station Construction...... 4-14 (1) Standard Station...... 4-15 (2) Station with the Spine Wastewater Tunnel (SWWT) ...... 4-18 (3) Station No. 8 under an Existing Railway (Ghamrah) ...... 4-20 4.4.3 Tunnel Construction Methodology...... 4-24 4.4.4 Use of the Two Liquid Type Backfill Material for the Tail Void...... 4-27 4.4.5 Soil Improvement from the Cutting Face and Under the Azhar Road Tunnel and Metro Line 3 Tunnel ...... 4-28 4.5 Construction Schedule ...... 4-30 4.5.1 Study Condition ...... 4-30 4.5.2 Schedule ...... 4-30

Final Report - Volume 2 (iii) JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

4.6 Construction Cost...... 4-33 4.7 Environmental, Social and Archaeological Aspects...... 4-35 4.7.1 Methodology of Comparison...... 4-35 4.7.2 Comparison Results and Key Notes...... 4-35 4.8 Comparison Results by Multi-Criteria Analysis and Recommendation...... 4-38 4.8.1 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) ...... 4-38 (1) The Purpose and Methodology of MCA ...... 4-38 (2) Summarized Condition of Two Alternative Routes ...... 4-38 (3) Analysis of Two Alternative Routes ...... 4-41 4.8.2 Recommendation ...... 4-44

Final Report - Volume 2 (iv) JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Table 2-1 Summary of Previous Survey...... 2-1 Table 2-2 Previous Traffic Survey Data...... 2-5 Table 2-3 List of Link Traffic Count Survey Locations along Pyramids Road ...... 2-8 Table 2-4 List of Link Traffic Count Survey Locations along Port-Said Street ...... 2-8 Table 2-5 List of Screen Line Survey Locations, Survey Day and Dates ...... 2-12 Table 2-6 Survey Day and Date for Each Interview Survey Location...... 2-22 Table 2-7 Comparison between the Numbers of the Total Interviewed Persons Before and After Data Checking...... 2-23 Table 2-8 Distribution of the Total Number of Interviews Among Different Interview Locations ...... 2-23 Table 2-9 Population Growth Forecast for Study Area (SDMP Study) ...... 2-35 Table 2-10 Feasibility Study Population Forecast for Study Area ...... 2-36 Table 2-11 Population Projection for NUCs to be Developed After 2027 ...... 2-38 Table 2-12 Population Forecast for Greater Cairo by Study Sector, 2007-2050 ...... 2-39 Table 2-13 Summary of Forecast Population Growth Rates, by Study Sector ...... 2-39 Table 2-14 Land Area and Population Density in the Study Area, 2009-2050 ...... 2-40 Table 2-15 SDMP Employment Growth Forecast for the Study Area...... 2-41 Table 2-16 Feasibility Study Employment Forecast for the Study Area...... 2-41 Table 2-17 Total Employment in Secondary and Tertiary Industries by Type of Urban Area, 2006-2050...... 2-43 Table 2-18 Population Projection for NUCs to be Developed after 2027...... 2-44 Table 2-19 Secondary and Tertiary Industry Employment Forecast by Study Sector ...... 2-44 Table 2-20 Summary of Forecast Employment Growth Rates by Study Sector ...... 2-45 Table 2-21 SDMP student enrolment forecast for the study area...... 2-46 Table 2-22 Feasibility Study Student Enrolments Forecast for the Study Area ...... 2-46 Table 2-23 Total Student Enrolments by Type of Urban Area, 2006-2050...... 2-47 Table 2-24 Student Enrolment Projection for NUCs to be Developed After 2027 ...... 2-48 Table 2-25 Student Enrolment Forecast by Study Sector ...... 2-48 Table 2-26 Summary of Forecasted Student Enrolment Growth Rates by Study Sector...... 2-49 Table 2-27 Analysis of Car Ownership in Three Governorate Against GDRP growth ...... 2-50 Table 2-28 Car Ownership Forecast (Three Governorates) ...... 2-50 Table 2-29 Car Ownership Rates vs. GDP Per Capita (USD), Countries in Western Europe...... 2-51 Table 2-30 Socio-economic Indicators in the Study Area...... 2-51 Table 2-31 Metro Line Operating Data for Cairo Metro Organization (CMO) ...... 2-53 Table 2-32 Passenger Volume/Day at Each Metro Line 1 Station ...... 2-53 Table 2-33 Passenger Volume/Day at Each Metro Line 2 Station ...... 2-54 Table 2-34 Number of Passenger and Suburban Trains in the Greater Cairo Area ...... 2-56 Table 2-35 Number of Passengers per day on Each Line in 2005/2006 ...... 2-57 Table 2-36 Estimated Number of Buses in the Fleet...... 2-58 Table 2-37 Estimated Passenger Transport Share ...... 2-58 Table 2-38 ADT on the Main Road Network...... 2-60 Table 2-39 ADT on Major Arterial Highways ...... 2-60 Table 2-40 Calibrated Parameters of Trip Generation and Attraction Models ...... 2-63 Table 2-41 Parameters of Trip Distribution Model...... 2-64 Table 2-42 Trend and Estimation of Private Mode Share Against Car Ownership Rate ...... 2-66 Table 2-43 Private Car Modal Share Model in This Study...... 2-67 Table 2-44 Assumption of Travel Time by Mode for the Modelling Period ...... 2-69 Table 2-45 Model Calibration Results ...... 2-70 Table 2-46 Trip generation and attraction (unit: thousand trips per day)...... 2-72 Table 2-47 All Mode Origin and Destination Matrix by Sector Zone in Year 2008

Final Report - Volume 2 (v) JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

(unit: thousand trip per day) ...... 2-73 Table 2-48 All Mode Origin and Destination Matrix by Sector Zone in Year 2027 (unit: thousand trip per day) ...... 2-74 Table 2-49 All Mode Origin and Destination Matrix by Sector Zone in Year 2050 (unit: thousand trip per day) ...... 2-75 Table 2-50 Result of Modal Share Estimation ...... 2-76 Table 2-51 Rail Mode Trip by Sector Zone, (unit: thousand trips per day) ...... 2-77 Table 2-52 Rail Mode Origin and Destination Matrix by Sector Zone in Year 2008 (unit: thousand trips per day)...... 2-78 Table 2-53 Rail Mode Origin and Destination Matrix by Sector Zone in Year 2027 Alternative 1 North Extension (unit: thousand trips per day)...... 2-79 Table 2-54 Rail Mode Origin and Destination Matrix by Sector Zone in Year 2027 Alternative 2 East Extension (unit: thousand trips per day)...... 2-80 Table 2-55 Rail Mode Origin and Destination Matrix by Sector Zone in Year 2050 Alternative 1 North Extension (unit: thousand trips per day) ...... 2-81 Table 2-56 Rail Mode Origin and Destination Matrix by Sector Zone in Year 2050 Alternative 2 East Extension (unit: thousand trips per day)...... 2-82 Table 2-57 Summary of Metro Daily Demand (Metro Line 4 Alternative 1 North Extension) ...... 2-83 Table 2-58 Summary of Metro Daily Demand (Metro Line 4 Alternative 2 East Extension) ...... 2-84 Table 2-59 Detailed Metro Demands for Metro Line 4 Phase 1 (To/From Phase 2 Alternative 1 North Extension)...... 2-84 Table 2-60 Detailed Metro Demands for Metro Line 4 Phase 1 (To/From Phase 2 Alternative 2 East Extension) ...... 2-85 Table 2-61 Planning Factors for Determining Requirement of Feeder Transport Facilities at Major Stations ...... 2-95 Table 2-62 Planning Factors for Determining Requirement of Feeder Transport Facilities at Ordinary Stations...... 2-96

Table 3-1 Speed Restrictions and Length of Transitional Curves ...... 3-2 Table 3-2 Consideration from Viewpoints of Environmental and Social Acceptability...... 3-9 Table 3-3 Comparison of Proposed Station Locations ...... 3-18 Table 3-4 Comparison Table for Alternative Access Routes to the Workshop/Depot ...... 3-23

Table 4-1 Station covering Population by distance ...... 4-1 Table 4-2 Metro Station and Section Passenger by Alternatives ...... 4-3 Table 4-3 Hard Points of the Northern Route ...... 4-7 Table 4-4 Single Track Double Tube and Double Tracks Tubel...... 4-24 Table 4-5 Construction Period...... 4-30 Table 4-6 Conditions for Cost Estimate...... 4-33 Table 4-7 Conditions for Each Corridor for Phase 2...... 4-33 Table 4-8 Basic Unit Cost as of 2009...... 4-34 Table 4-9 Construction and Procurement Cost for Phase 2 as of 2009 ...... 4-34 Table 4-10 Comparison of Magnitude of Land Acquisition and Resettlement...... 4-36 Table 4-11 Comparison of Social, Environmental and Archaeological Aspects ...... 4-37 Table 4-12 Summarized Main Characteristics...... 4-39 Table 4-13 The Predicted Population and Number of Passengers ...... 4-39 Table 4-14 Comparison of Cost Estimation...... 4-40 Table 4-15 Criteria for scoring...... 4-42 Table 4-16 Weighting of Criteria...... 4-42 Table 4-17 Comparison of Two Routes...... 4-43 Table 4-18 Comparison Considering Transportation Demands in 2050...... 4-43 Table 4-19 Comparison Table for Phase 2 Route ...... 4-45

Final Report - Volume 2 (vi) JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Figure 1-1 Study Area ...... 1-3 Figure 2-1 Traffic Count Location Map（Previous Surveys）...... 2-2 Figure 2-2 Traffic Survey Hours（Previous Surveys） ...... 2-3 Figure 2-3 Traffic Volume at Each Location Converted to 24-hour Unit（Previous Surveys） ...... 2-4 Figure 2-4 Proposed Link Traffic Count Survey Locations along Pyramids Road ...... 2-8 Figure 2-5 Proposed Link Traffic Count Survey Locations along Port Said Street ...... 2-9 Figure 2-6 Traffic Count Form ...... 2-11 Figure 2-7 Screen Line Survey Location Map ...... 2-12 Figure 2-8 Traffic Volume Fluctuation for Both Directions at Maadi Bridge (SL1) (First Survey Day) ...... 2-14 Figure 2-9 Traffic Volume Fluctuation for Both Directions at Maadi Bridge (SL1) (Second Survey Day) ...... 2-14 Figure 2-10 Average Traffic Composition at Maadi Bridge (SL1) ...... 2-15 Figure 2-11 Traffic Volume Fluctuation for Both Directions at Abbas Bridge (SL2) (First Survey Day) ...... 2-16 Figure 2-12 Traffic Volume Fluctuation for Both Directions at Abbas Bridge (SL2) (Second Survey Day) ...... 2-16 Figure 2-13 Average Traffic Composition at Abbas Bridge (SL2)...... 2-17 Figure 2-14 Revealed Preference Survey Form for Car Users...... 2-19 Figure 2-15 Revealed Preference Survey Form for Public Transport User ...... 2-20 Figure 2-16 Stated Preference Survey Form...... 2-21 Figure 2-17 Locations of Interview Survey ...... 2-24 Figure 2-18 Distribution of the Interviewed Sample of Public Transport Users According to Trip Purpose...... 2-24 Figure 2-19 Distribution of the Interviewed Sample of Public Transport Users According to Used Public Mode Type ...... 2-25 Figure 2-20 Distribution Based on Waiting time ...... 2-26 Figure 2-21 Distribution Based on Walk to Mode Time ...... 2-26 Figure 2-22 Distribution Based on Number of Mode Transfer ...... 2-26 Figure 2-23 Distribution Based on Travel cost...... 2-26 Figure 2-24 Distribution Based on “In vehicle” Time...... 2-26 Figure 2-25 Distribution Based on Walking Time from Mode ...... 2-26 Figure 2-26 Comparison Between the Trip Characteristics of the User Trips for both the Used and Alternative Modes ...... 2-27 Figure 2-27 Percentages of Interviewed Public Mode Users Regarding Their Opinions in Each Trip Characteristic Item ...... 2-27 Figure 2-28 Distribution of Interviewed Sample of Car Users According to Trip Purpose...... 2-28 Figure 2-29 Distribution of Interviewed Sample of Car Users According to Trip Time...... 2-28 Figure 2-30 Distribution of Interviewed Sample of Car Users According to Parking Fees ...... 2-29 Figure 2-31 Distribution of the Interviewed Sample of Car Users According to Other Available Alternative Mode...... 2-29 Figure 2-32 Percentages of Interviewed Car Users Regarding their Opinions on Each Trip Characteristic Item ...... 2-30 Figure 2-33 Distribution of Interviewed Sample of Public Users According to Trip Purpose...... 2-30 Figure 2-34 Percentages of Interviewed Public Users Regarding their Opinions on Each Trip Characteristic Item ...... 2-31 Figure 2-35 Tourist Survey Form...... 2-32 Figure 2-36 Urban Development Strategy for Greater Cairo up to 2050 ...... 2-33 Figure 2-37 New Urban Community (NUC) Development until 2050 ...... 2-34 Figure 2-38 Relative Population Growth between NUCs and Other Urban Areas...... 2-35 Figure 2-39 Delineation of Study Geographical Sectors...... 2-37 Figure 2-40 Regression of Car Ownership Rate Against GRDP per Capita in Three Governorates (Cairo, Giza and Qaliobeya) ...... 2-50

Final Report - Volume 2 (vii) JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Figure 2-41 Metro Line 1 and 2 Routes and Stations ...... 2-52 Figure 2-42 Existing Urban Railway Network in Greater Cairo...... 2-57 Figure 2-43 Existing Major Road Network in Greater Cairo Region ...... 2-59 Figure 2-44 Principle of Transportation Modeling...... 2-61 Figure 2-45 Concept of Four-Step Approach of Transport Modelling ...... 2-62 Figure 2-46 Verification of Trip Generation and Attraction Models ...... 2-63 Figure 2-47 Verification of Trip Generation and Attraction Models ...... 2-65 Figure 2-48 Work Flow for Modal Split Modelling and Projection of Metro Line Passengers ...... 2-66 Figure 2-49 Private Car Modal Split Model...... 2-67 Figure 2-50 Private Car Modal Share Model in This Study...... 2-68 Figure 2-51 Explanatory Illustration for Station Accessibility ...... 2-69 Figure 2-52 Modal Split Model (Bus and Metro) Calibration Results and Estimated Rail Mode Share ...... 2-70 Figure 2-53 Concept of Traffic Assignment and Finding a Tree/Route...... 2-71 Figure 2-54 Choice of Transport Mode Reflected in Relationship between Traffic Density and Distance ...... 2-87 Figure 2-55 Concept drawing of El Remayah Station, showing the layout of Underground “park and ride” and modal interchange facilities...... 2-89 Figure 2-56 Concept Drawing of El Giza Station, Showing the Layout of Above-ground “Park and Ride” and Modal Interchange Facilities ...... 2-90 Figure 2-57 Plan Arrangement of “Pick-up and Set-down” Facilities for Feeder Transport at Ordinary Stations ...... 2-91 Figure 2-58 Distribution of Passenger Demand Forecast by Feeder Trip Distance (Entire Route of Metro Line 4)...... 2-93 Figure 2-59 Distribution of Passenger Demand Forecast by Feeder Trip Distance (Metro Line 4 Phase 1 route)...... 2-94 Figure 3-1 Main Crossing Structures Between El Malek El Saleh and El Remayah Square...... 3-3 Figure 3-2 Possible Routes between El Malek El Saleh and Sta.6 ...... 3-4 Figure 3-3 Existing Conditions of Giza Square...... 3-5 Figure 3-4 The Flyover ...... 3-5 Figure 3-5 Location of Faisal Station and El-Giza Station on Metro Line 2 ...... 3-7 Figure 3-6 Current Condition of Pyramids Road...... 3-7 Figure 3-7 Current Condition of King Faisal Street...... 3-8 Figure 3-8 Plan for Toll Road Along King Faisal Street ...... 3-9 Figure 3-9 Alternative Route Avoiding Main Construction Difficulties...... 3-10 Figure 3-10 List of Existing Site Conditions ...... 3-13 Figure 3-11 Alternative Alignments Around the Intersection of Pyramids Road with Alexandria Desert Road ...... 3-14 Figure 3-12 Proposed Route for Phase 1 Section ...... 3-15 Figure 3-13 Schematic Layout of Station Locations ...... 3-16 Figure 3-14 Schematic Vertical Alignment...... 3-17 Figure 3-15 Typical Cross Section of Tunnel...... 3-20 Figure 3-16 Typical Cross Section of Station Structure...... 3-21 Figure 3-17 Possible Planning Area for the Workshop/Depot ...... 3-21 Figure 3-18 Alternative Access Routes to the Workshop/Depot...... 3-22 Figure 3-19 List of Hard Points...... 3-25 Figure 4-1 Future Land Use Composition within 2,000 m Distance From/To the Stations ...... 4-2 Figure 4-2 Site in front of Children Cancer Hospital ...... 4-4 Figure 4-3 World Heritage Area...... 4-5 Figure 4-4 Alternative Route Corridor for Phase2 Section (Northern Route and Eastern Route) ...... 4-6 Figure 4-5 Hard Points Location of Northern Route ...... 4-8 Figure 4-6 Typical Cross Section Under Port Said Street...... 4-9 Figure 4-7 Neighbouring Construction of the Yamate Tunnel in Tokyo ...... 4-10

Final Report - Volume 2 (viii) JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Figure 4-8 Complicated Neighbouring Tunnel Construction of Keio Line and Sagami Line in Tokyo...... 4-11 Figure 4-9 Cross Section at Crossing Point of El Azhar Road Tunnel...... 4-12 Figure 4-10 Structural Type of Northern Route and Southern Route ...... 4-14 Figure 4-11 Intersection at Grade Covered with Road Decks ...... 4-15 Figure 4-12 Plan and Profile of Cut and Cover with Road Deck Method during Station Construction...... 4-16 Figure 4-13 Procedure of Installing the Road Deck during Station Construction...... 4-17 Figure 4-14 Procedure of the Road Deck Method during Station Construction...... 4-18 Figure 4-15 Procedure of Hanging Spine Wastewater Tunnel in Station Construction...... 4-19 Figure 4-16 Seismic Countermeasure for the SWWT in Station...... 4-20 Figure 4 17 Plan at Station No. 8 (Ghamrah) ...... 4-21 Figure 4-18 Image of Station No. 8 (Ghamrah) Constructed Using the Multi Box Jacking...... 4-21 Figure 4-19 Photo of Multi Box Jacking Machine and Image of Construction...... 4-22 Figure 4-20 Image of Station No. 8 (Ghamrah) constructed Using HEP and JES Method ...... 4-23 Figure 4-21 Photo and Image of HEP and JES Construction Method ...... 4-23 Figure 4-22 TBM Excavation Procedure Plan (Left: Northern Route, Right: Eastern Route) ...... 4-26 Figure 4-23 Mechanism of the Settlement by the Deformation of Backfill Material...... 4-27 Figure 4-24 Ground Surface Settlement with Different Backfill Materials ...... 4-28 Figure 4-25 Image of Soil Improvement from the Cutting Face of the Shield TBM...... 4-29 Figure 4-26 Construction Schedule of Phase 2 (Northern Route) ...... 4-31 Figure 4-27 Construction Schedule of Phase-2 Eastern Route ...... 4-32

LIST OF APPENDIXES

Appendix 1: Traffic Count Locations Appendix 2: Traffic Count Locations at Port-Said Street Appendix 3: Screen Line Traffic Count Locations Appendix 4: Traffic Volume Fluctuation and Traffic Composition at the Screen Line Locations Appendix 5: Summary of Horizontal Alignment for Phase1 and Phase2 Appendix 6: Alignment Drawing for Phase2 and Phase3 Appendix 7: Interview Survey Forms in Arabic

Final Report - Volume 2 (ix)

GROSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS AND MEASURING UNITS

JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS AND MEASURING UNITS

ABBREVIATIONS

A AASHTO American Association of State Highways and Transportation Officials AB Absolute Block ABS Automatic Block Signals A/C Air Conditioning AC Alternating Current ACE Arab Consulting Engineers ACij Access Length ADT Average Daily Traffic AF Audio Frequency AFC Automatic Fare Collection (system) AfDB African Development Bank AG Automatic Gate AGT Automated Guide-way Transit AHU Air Handling Unit AM Amplitude Modulation am Ante meridian ANSI American National Standards Institute AREMA American Railway Engineering and Maintenance Association ARS Automatic Route Setting ASCII American Standard Code for Information Interchange asl Above Sea Level ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials AT Auto Transformer ATC Automatic Train Control ATO Automatic Train Operation ATP Automatic Train Protection ATS Automatic Train Supervision ATS Automatic Train Stop Ave. Average B

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units I JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

BAS Building Automation System BCC Beginning of Circular Curve BCR Benefit Cost Ratio BD Basic Design BNC British National Connector BP Brake Pipe BRT Bus BS British Standard BSE Base Station Equipment BT Booster Transformer BTC Beginning of Transition Curve C CA Certification Authority CAA Competent Administrative Authority CAD Computer Aided Design C&I Criteria & Indicator CAPMAS Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics CAPW Construction Authority for Portable Water and Wastewater CBD Central Business District CBTC Communication Based Train Control CCIR International Radio Consultation Committee CCITT Consultative Committee for International Telephone and Telegraphs CCP Central Control Point CCTV Closed Circuit Television CCU Central Control Unit CCU Communication with Central Control Unit CD ROM Compact Disc Read Only Memory CDR Compact Disc Recordable CIP Central Interface Panel CENELEC European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardization CI Computerized Interlocking CICC Contactless IC Card CIPF Card Initiation and Personalization Function CIPS Card Initiation and Personalization System CMH Cubic Meter per Hour CML Cairo Metro Line

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units II JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

CMO Cairo Metro Organization CMOS Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor CNG Compressed Natural Gas COP Crew Operation Panel CPEE City Unit Cable CPM Critical Path Method CREATS Cairo Regional Area Transportation Study CRT Cathode Ray Tube CS Cab Signal CSC Contactless Smart Card CTA Cairo Transport Authority CULTNAT Cultural and National Heritage CV Curriculum Vitae CWO Cairo Wastewater Organization CWR Continuously Welded Rail D DB Dry Bulb (Ventilation) D&B Design and Build DC Direct Current DC Direct Cost DCF Discount Cash Flow DF Depot Facility DIN Deutsche Industry Norm (German Industrial Standard) DO Dissolved Oxygen DOS Disk Operating System DSRSC Design Standards for Railway Structures and Commentary DWG Drawing E E&M Electrical and Mechanical ECC End of Circular Curve ECM Egyptian Company for Metro ECMOU Egyptian Company for Maintaining and Operating the Underground ECS Environmental Control System EEAA Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency EEHC Egyptian Electricity Holding Company Egij Egress Length

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units III JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

EGP EGSA Egyptian General Survey Authority EHF Extremely High Frequency (mill-meter wave) EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EIB European Investment Bank EIRENE European Integrated Railway Radio Enhanced NEtwork EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return ELCB Earth Leakage Circuit Breaker EMC Electro Magnetic Compatibility EMI Electro Magnetic Interference EMU Environmental Management Unit (Governorate) EMU Electric Multiple Unit ENIT Egypt National Institute of Transport ENPV Economic Net Present Value ENR Egyptian National Railway EPBM Earth Pressure Balanced Machine EPI Environmental performance Indicator ER Electric Room ERs Executive Regulations ERTMS European Railway Traffic Management System ETC End of Transition Curve ETCS European Train Control System ETHERNET Computer Cabling System EU European Union EUA EU emission Allowance F FCC Federal Communications Commission FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return FM Frequency Modulation FOB Free On Board FOC Fiber Optic Cable F/S Feasibility Study FS Fail Safe FSK Frequency Shift Keying FSR Feasibility Study Report FTP File Transfer Protocol FY Fiscal Year, Financial Year

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units IV JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

G GARBLT General Authority for Roads, Bridges and Land Transport GC General Consultant GCA Greater Cairo Area GCR Greater Cairo Region GDP Gross Domestic Product GEM GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information System GL Ground Level GNI Gross National Income GOE Government of Egypt GOJ Government of Japan GOPP General Organization for Physical Planning GPS Global Positioning by Satellite System GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product GSM Global System for Mobile communications GSM-R Global System for Mobile communications for Railways GUI Graphical User Interface H HB Home Based HFC Hydro-Fluoro-Carbon HIS Home Interview Survey HMI Human Machine Interface Hz Hertz hr hour HS Hindrance Sensor HTTP Hyper Text Transfer Protocol HVL High Voltage Line HVS High Voltage Station I IBA Important Bird Area IBC International Building Code IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IC Integrated Circuit ICEA Insulated Cable Engineers Association IDC In-Direct Cost

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units V JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

IEC International Electrotechnical Commission IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers IGBT Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor IMF International Monetary Fund IP Implementation Program IRJ Insulated Rail Joint IRR Internal Rate of Return IS Information System ISDN Integrated Services Digital Network ISO International Standards Organization IT Information Technology I-Tax Import Tax ITU International Telecommunication Union ITV Industrial Television IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources J JARTS Japan Railway Technical Service JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation (former name of JICA) JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JIS Japanese Industrial Standards JNR Japanese National Railways JPY Japanese Yen JST JICA Study Team K kCal kilo-Calory kV kilo Volt kVA kilo Volt Ampere L LAN Local Area Network LCD Liquid Crystal Display LCU Local Control Unit LCX Leaky Coaxial Cable LE /L.E. Egyptian Pound LED Light Emitting Diode LPS Lighting and Power Station

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units VI JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

LRT Transit LRV Light Rail Vehicle LRU Line Replaceable Unit LT Link Traffic LV Low Voltage LWR Long Welded Rail M MCA Multi-Criteria Analysis MCBF Mean Cycle Between Failure MCP Manual Control Panel MCPC Monitoring and Control Personal Computer MCS Manual Control Switch MDB Manual Door Opening Button M&E Mechanical and Electrical MDBF Mean Distance Between Failure MDOP Manual Door Operation Panel MH Maintenance Hatch MIL Military Specification min. minute MIS Management Information System MJC Misr Japan Alled Company for Rolling Stock Maintenance and Renweal MLIT Ministry of Land Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism / Japan MOH Ministry of health (Egypt) MOT Ministry of Transport (Egypt) MP Mimic Panel MPU Motive Power Unit MPU Micro Processor Units MRT Mass Rapid Transit MSEA Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs MSK Minimum Shift Keying Modulation MT Matting Transformer MT Magnetic Ticket (AFC) M4N Metro Line 4 North section (Phase 2) M4W Metro Line 4 West Section (Phase 1) MW Mega Watt

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units VII JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

N NAT National Authority for Tunnel, Ministry of Transport NATM New Austrian Tunneling Method NFPA National Fire Prevention Association NGO Non-Governmental Organization NHB Non-Home Based NOUH National Organization for Urban Harmony NOx Nitrogen Oxides NPV Net Present Value N-Sta. North line Station (Phase 2) NUC New Urban Community O OA Outside Air (Ventilation) OCC Operation Control Centre OCS Overhead Contact System OD / O/D Origin and Destination ODA Official Development Assistance OFC Optical Fibre Cable OHC Over Head Catenary O&M Operation and Maintenance OP Operation Policy ORC Overhead Rigid Conductor P p.a. per annum P&L Profit and Loss PA Public Announcement/ Public Address PAP Project Affected Person Pax Passenger PBX Private Automatic Branch Exchange PC Pre-stressed Concrete PC Personal Computer PCP Power Control Point PCU Passenger Car Unit p/h person per hour PHPDT Peak Hour Peak Direction Trips PID Passenger Information Display PKI-SAM Public Key Infrastructure - Security Access Key

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units VIII JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

pm post meridian PM Particulate Matter PMSM Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor PPHPD Passengers Per Hour Per Direction PPM Planned Preventive Maintenance PRC Programmed Route Control PRJ Projector PSD Platform Screen Door P. T. P i as t er PT Person Trip PTC Programmed Traffic Control PPM Parts Per Million PSO Public Service Obligation PVC Poly Vinyl Chloride PVU Portable Verification Unit PW Permanent Way Q QA Quality Assurance R RA Returned Air RAMS Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety RAP Resettlement Action Plan RBO Regional Branch Offices RC Reinforced Concrete RCS Radio Central Control System Rd. Road RF Radio Frequency Rf Rectifier equipment RH Relative Humidity RI Relay Interlocking Rij Railway Length RL Rail Level ROE Return On Equity ROI Return On Investment ROW Right Of Way RP Revealed Preference RPS Revealed Preference Survey

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units IX JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

RPF Resettlement Policy Framework RS Rectifier Station RS Rolling Stock RT Refrigeration Tons RTU Remote Terminal Unit RTRI Railway Technical Research Institute, Japan R/W Read and Write S SA Supply Air SAM Security Access Module SCA Supreme Council of Antiquities SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition SCU Station Control Unit SDH Synchronous Digital Hierarchy SDMP The Strategic Urban Development Master Plan Study for a sustainable Development of the Greater Cairo Region in the Arab Republic of Egypt Sec. Section sec. second SEVP Signal Polyethylene Vinyl Cable SF Stored Fare (Ticket) SHF Super High Frequency (centimeter wave) SI Systeme Internationale d’Unites (SI Unit) SI Sensitive Indicator SIFE Students in Free Enterprise SL Screen Line SM Single Mode

SO2 Sulfur Dioxide SOFRETU Société Française d’études et de réalisations de transports urbains SP Stated Preference SPAD Signal Passing At Danger SPF Shadow Pricing Factor SPS Stated Preference Survey SPT Standard Penetration Test SQEE Signal Quad Polyethylene Cable sq.m. square meter

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units X JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

SSOP Station Staff operation Panel STA / Sta. Station STRASYA Standard Urban Railway System for Asia STEP Special Terms for Economic Partnership SV Switching Value S/W Scope of Work SWWT Spine Waste Water Tunnel T TAC Track Access Charge TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone TBM Tunnel Boring Machine TD Train Detection TD Tender Document TDM Time Division Multiplex TDMA Time Division Multiple Access TEF Tunnel Exhaust Fans TETRA Terrestrial Trunked Radio TIS Ticket Initialization Unit TOM Ticket Office Machine TOR Terms Of Reference TR Ticket Reader TV Television TVF Tunnel Ventilation Fans TVM Ticket Vending Machine U UNDP United Nations Development Programme UIC Union International des Chemins de fer (International Union of Railways) UPS Uninterruptible Power Supply USRT United States Refrigeration Tons V V Volt VAT Value Added Tax VHF Very High Frequency VOC Vehicle Operating Cost VOT Value Of Travel Time VVVF Valuable Voltage Valuable Frequency

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units XI JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

W W Watt WB World Bank WB Wet Bulb W/D Workshop/Depot W/S Work Station WS Wayside Signal WAN Wide Area Network WWW World Wide Web WYSIWYG What You See Is What You Get

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units XII JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

UNITS OF MEASURE

A Ampere Amp Ampere BTU British Thermal Unit dB Decibel dBA Decibel on the ‘A’ weighted scale FC Foot-candles g Acceleration due to Gravity (32.2 ft/s2 =9.81 m/s2 ) H Hour Hz Hertz In Inch J Joule ha Hectare kg Kilogram kHz Kilohertz km Kilometer km2 Square Kilometer km/h Kilometer per hour kWh Kilowatt hour kV Kilovolt I Liter L.E. Egyptian Pound m Meter m2 Square Meter mg/l Milligram per Litter MHz Mega Hertz min Minute mm Millimeter MW Megawatt MVA Mega Volt Ampere mV Millivolt ìV Microvolt N Newton NYU Nephelometric Turbidity Unit ppm parts per million RT Refrigeration Tons

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units XIII JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4 sec Second ug/m3 Microgram per cubic meter USRT United States Refrigeration Tons V Volt Vac Volt alternating current Vdc Volt direct current wt weight °C Degree Celsius °F Degree Fahrenheit

Final Report - Volume 2 Abbreviations and Units XIV

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF VOLUME 2

JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF VOLUME 2 1. Introduction 1.1 Background and Purpose of the Study The Greater Cairo Region is the premier city in Egypt. It is rich in history and boasts of a large number of historical structures. It is the largest city in the African Continent and the Middle Eastern Region with a population of over 18 million, representing 25% of the total population of Egypt.

As the population of the Greater Cairo Region is envisaged to increase to 20 million by the year 2017 according to the SDMP Report, the Government of Egypt (GOE) is reforming the urban structure, changing from a mono-centric form to a decentralized form, notably through the development of New Urban Communities (NUCs), such as the 10th of City and 6th October City. However, the increasing transport demand has not been accompanied by a substantial solution to urban problems such as road traffic congestion, insufficient public transportation services and air pollution.

At present two metro lines are in service and one metro line is under construction. As a long-term strategic development plan, the General Organization for Physical Planning (GOPP) has prepared “the Cairo Vision 2050”. This vision document proposes 15 metro routes as the main public transport system in the Greater Cairo Region.

Under this circumstanced, GOE has decided to construct, as early as practicable, the Metro Line 4, and requested the Government of Japan (GOJ) to implement the “Development Study on Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4 Project in October 2008, by the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt”. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the official agency responsible for the implementation of GOJ’s programs, has had discussions with the National Authority for Tunnels (NAT) of the Ministry of Transport and has agreed to conduct a feasibility study for the proposed Metro Line 4. The document for the Scope of Work was signed on 21st December 2008.

1.2 Implementation of the Study The JICA Preparatory Survey on the Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4 was undertaken in March 2009, based on the Scope of Work agreed among the NAT, the Ministry of Transport, and the JICA. The study was carried out by the JICA Study Team (JST), which is the consultant team hired by JICA for the implementation of this study. The JICA Preparatory Survey consists of the following two major studies.

 New Transportation Study on Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4, including selection of the routes for Phase 1 and Phase 2, considering future transport demand up until the year 2050.  A complete Feasibility Study for the combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 selected route, including Preliminary Design for Phase 1, considering future transport demand up until the year 2050.

Final Report - Volume 2 1 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

2. Transportation Study 2.1 Transport Survey JICA Study Team has analyzed previous surveys which were carried out by JICA as follows;

 Public Private Partnership Program for Cairo Urban Expressway Network Development (May 2006)  Feasibility Study on High Priority Urban Toll Expressways in Cairo (January 2009)  The Strategic Urban Development Master Plan Study for Sustainable Development of the Greater Cairo Region (January 2008)

Based on the above analysis, JICA Study Team has conducted following four surveys.

 Link Traffic Count Survey (LT survey)  Screen Line Survey (SL survey)  Interview Survey for Car Users and Public Transport Users  Interview Survey for Tourists

The purposes of these transport surveys are:

 To recognize the traffic volume characteristics on the roads along the route of Metro Line 4.  To study the direct impact on the road traffic along the Metro Line 4, such as the level of service, air pollution and noise level.  To get necessary information for traffic control and management plans during the construction stage.  Validate the main output of the transportation planning models that will be developed in this study.

On the other hand, the main objectives of the interview survey are:

 To calibrate a modal choice model  To measure their willingness to pay for a new metro service that would be safer and more time-saving

2.2 Urbanization and Socio-Economic Development The study area comprises rapidly growing and newly urbanizing communities at its western and eastern extremities, as well as a mature urban core at its centre and in its northern section. The pattern of urban growth within Greater Cairo up until 2050 was assumed to follow the shift of residential development and population away from the existing urban concentrations (agglomerations) to “New Urban Communities” (NUCs), as envisaged in Cairo Vision 2050.

The strategy for the urban development of Greater Cairo, as presented in Cairo Vision 2050, is given in Figure 1 below.

Final Report - Volume 2 2 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

Existing area of population concentration, from which there will be a shift of population by 2050.

New areas to be proposed for residential development to absorb an additional 1 million residential units by 2050 (comprising approx. 35,000 feddan in total)

Already existing “New Urban Communities” planned for expansion to absorb an additional 1 million residential units each by 2050

Area to be reserved for agricultural land within Greater Cairo (approximately 60,000 feddan)

Source: Vision 2050, General Office for Physical Planning, Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban Development Figure 1 Urban Development Strategy for Greater Cairo up to 2050

2.2.1 Population Projections For the purpose of summarizing the population forecasts used as inputs for the transport demand forecast, the study area was divided into 18 geographical sectors. Following table shows the summary of forecast population and growth rates by study sectors.

In most cases of sectors containing existing NUCs (see rows shaded green), the average rate of population increase declines significantly between 2027 and 2050, as these areas approach their capacity. Conversely, it shows that in most cases of sectors containing new NUCs (see rows shaded purple), the average rate of population increase either remains constant or expands between 2027 and 2050.

Final Report - Volume 2 3 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

Table 1 Summary of Forecast Population Growth Rates, by Study Sector

No. Sector Y2009 Y2027 Y2050 Overall Growth Av. annual rate of growth 2009-2027 2009-2050 2009-2027 2009-2050 1 322,880 1,449,364 1,671,672 449% 518% 8.7% 4.1% 2 Markaz 1,835,262 2,684,164 3,575,870 146% 195% 2.1% 1.6% 3 1,343,380 1,429,463 1,648,719 106% 123% 0.3% 0.5% 4 Giza 1,567,077 1,974,991 2,625,922 126% 168% 1.3% 1.3% 5 South Giza 530,317 590,495 681,067 111% 128% 0.6% 0.6% 6 820,100 995,041 2,911,664 121% 355% 1.1% 3.1% 7 Maadi 1,113,044 1,655,522 1,909,452 149% 172% 2.2% 1.3% 8 Khaleafa 858,798 951,550 1,097,502 111% 128% 0.6% 0.6% 9 CBD 399,602 384,529 443,509 96% 111% -0.2% 0.3% 10 Shobra 1,020,712 1,041,766 1,201,556 102% 118% 0.1% 0.4% 11 Masr El Gedeeda 873,972 976,786 1,126,609 112% 129% 0.6% 0.6% 12 Nasr City 1,118,408 2,355,577 2,716,884 211% 243% 4.2% 2.2% 13 Ain Sham 1,067,601 1,401,467 1,616,429 131% 151% 1.5% 1.0% 14 Salam City 815,377 725,064 836,277 89% 103% -0.7% 0.1% 15 Shobra El Kheima 1,084,038 1,406,107 1,621,781 130% 150% 1.5% 1.0% 16 Qalyob 924,506 1,270,396 1,465,254 137% 158% 1.8% 1.1% 17 Qanater 1,350,293 2,313,704 3,988,588 171% 295% 3.0% 2.7% 18 10th of Ramadan 171,217 586,024 675,910 342% 395% 7.1% 3.4% Total 17,216,581 24,192,010 31,814,664 141% 185% 1.9% 1.5% Sources: (1) SDMP Report 2008 (Population forecasts 2007-2027) (2) JICA Study Team 2009 (Population forecasts 2030-2050) Key: Includes existing NUCs Includes new NUCs identified in Vision 2050

2.2.2 Employment Projections The growth of employment in the study area is one of the factors having a strong influence on the growth in demand for the proposed Cairo Metro Line 4. Summary of forecast employment and growth rates by study sector is show in table below. It may be observed that the forecast reflects an expectation of a substantial shift of employment away from the main agglomerations to the existing and proposed NUCs. The former (shaded green) are expected to continue employment growth beyond 2027, but at reduced rates, while the latter (shaded purple), for the most part, are expected to more than double their annual rates of growth between 2009 and 2050, as compared with 2009-2027.

Table 2 Summary of Forecast Employment Growth Rates by Study Sector

No. Study Sector Y2009 Y2027 Y2050 Overall Growth Av. annual rate of growth 2009-2027 2009-2050 2009-2027 2009-2050 NUC's - existing 461 1,443 2,803 313% 608% 6.5% 4.5% 1 6th of October 119 335 718 282% 603% 5.9% 4.5% 12 Nasr City 47 294 704 631% 1513% 10.8% 6.9% 18 10th of Ramadan 166 365 739 220% 446% 4.5% 3.7% Others 130 449 642 346% 495% 7.1% 4.0% Agglomerations, small towns and new NUC's 4,004 5,507 8,462 138% 211% 1.8% 1.8% 2 Imbaba Markaz 463 747 654 161% 141% 2.7% 0.8% 3 Dokki 347 398 348 114% 100% 0.8% 0.0% 4Giza 403 549 1,417 136% 352% 1.7% 3.1% 5 South Giza 137 164 387 120% 283% 1.0% 2.6% 6 Helwan 211 277 1,280 131% 606% 1.5% 4.5% 7 Maadi 283 460 403 163% 142% 2.7% 0.9% 8 Khaleafa 221 265 232 119% 105% 1.0% 0.1% 9CBD 104 107 94 103% 90% 0.2% -0.2% 10 Shobra 264 290 254 110% 96% 0.5% -0.1% 11 Masr El Gedeeda 226 272 238 120% 105% 1.0% 0.1% 13 Ain Sham 273 390 341 143% 125% 2.0% 0.5% 14 SadamSalam City 212 202 177 95% 83% -0.3% -0.4% 15 Shobra El Kheima 278 391 343 141% 123% 1.9% 0.5% 16 Qalyob 236 353 309 150% 131% 2.3% 0.7% 17 Qanater 342 643 1,985 188% 581% 3.6% 4.4% Total 4,465 6,950 9,726 156% 218% 2.5% 1.9% Sources: SDMP report (2008); JICA Study Team (2009)

Final Report - Volume 2 4 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

2.2.3 Student Enrolment Projections Student enrolments are yet another important determinant for the level of demand for a metro, or indeed for any other form of public transport system. As such, forecasted student enrolments at the traffic zone level are used as an input for the Transport Demand Forecasting Model for the calculation of trip generation. Summary of forecast student enrolment and growth rates by study sector is show in table below. It may be observed that the forecast reflects an expectation of a large shift of student numbers away from the main agglomerations to the existing and proposed NUCs. The former (shaded green) are expected to continuously increase in terms of student numbers beyond 2027, but at reduced rates, while the latter (shaded purple), for the most part, are expected to double their annual rates of growth between 2009 and 2050, as compared with 2009-2027.

Table 3 Summary of Forecasted Student Enrolment Growth Rates by Study Sector

No. Study Sector Y2009 Y2027 Y2050 Overall Growth Av. annual rate of growth 2009-2027 2009-2050 2009-2027 2009-2050 NUC's - existing 167 1,113 2,810 666% 1680% 11.1% 7.1% 1 6th of October 31 367 927 1197% 3023% 14.8% 8.7% 12 Nasr City 119 597 1,507 502% 1266% 9.4% 6.4% 18 10th of Ramadan 17 149 375 849% 2144% 12.6% 7.8% Agglomerations, small towns and new NUC's 3,460 4,712 7,719 136% 223% 1.7% 2.0% 2 Imbaba Markaz 400 639 610 160% 152% 2.6% 1.0% 3 Dokki 300 340 325 113% 108% 0.7% 0.2% 4 Giza 348 470 1,277 135% 367% 1.7% 3.2% 5 South Giza 118 141 349 119% 295% 1.0% 2.7% 6 Helwan 183 237 1,145 130% 627% 1.5% 4.6% 7 Maadi 245 394 376 161% 154% 2.7% 1.1% 8 Khaleafa 191 226 216 118% 113% 0.9% 0.3% 9 CBD 90 92 87 102% 97% 0.1% -0.1% 10 Shobra 228 248 237 109% 104% 0.5% 0.1% 11 Masr El Gedeeda 195 232 222 119% 113% 1.0% 0.3% 13 Ain Sham 236 334 318 141% 135% 1.9% 0.7% 14 Salam City 183 173 165 94% 90% -0.3% -0.3% 15 Shobra El Kheima 240 335 319 139% 133% 1.9% 0.7% 16 Qalyob 204 302 288 148% 142% 2.2% 0.9% 17 Qanater 296 551 1,785 186% 604% 3.5% 4.5% Total 3,635 5,825 8,781 160% 242% 2.7% 2.2% Sources: SDMP report, 2008 ; JICA Study Team

2.2.4 Car Ownership Projections A projection of the growth in car ownership until 2050 was made as the basis for estimating the growth in the daily number of car trips within the study area in the “without project” case (i.e. the situation which would apply without Metro Line 4 in operation). Application of the equation derived from the regression process to per capita GRDP resulted in determining the forecasted car ownership rates for the period 2009-2050, as shown in the following table.

Final Report - Volume 2 5 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

Table 4 Car Ownership Forecast (Three Governorates)

Year GRDP per cap Ln (x) Cars per 1000 persons (x) Estimate Actual 2006 8,124.17 9.00 61.82 60.33 2007 8,460.14 9.04 66.90 70.08 2008 8,868.86 9.09 72.82 71.51 2009 8,985.05 9.10 74.46 2010 9,050.07 9.11 75.36 2011 9,181.94 9.12 77.18 2012 9,383.07 9.15 79.90 2020 14,238.00 9.56 132.24 2030 23,873.84 10.08 197.11 2040 37,685.37 10.54 254.40 2050 55,571.49 10.93 303.15 Growth factor 2050/2006 6.84 4.90 Source: JICA Study Team

2.2.5 Summarized Transport Planning Indicators The socio-economic indicators which have been assessed as bases for transport planning in this feasibility study are summarized in table below.

Table 5 Socio-economic Indicators in the Study Area

Socio-economic framework in the study area Indicator Unit 2006 2007 2009 2012 2017 2027 2030 2040 2050

Population 1000 persons 16,101 16,464 17,217 18,411 20,369 24,192 25,387 28,801 31,815 No.of Households 1000 4,007 4,097 4,284 4,582 5,067 5,385 6,318 7,168 7,918 Household Size Persons/household 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02

Economy GRDP Million L.E. 148,648 159,202 176,808 197,444 283,457 352,138 692,708 1,240,534 2,020,700 GRDP per Capita L.E. per capita 9,232 9,670 10,270 10,724 13,916 16,273 27,286 43,072 63,515 Labour force 1000 4,613 4,777 5,096 5,506 6,316 7,761 8,193 9,602 11,012 Unemployment% 7%6%6%6%5%5%5%4%4% No.of Workers (Secondary and Tertiary) 1000 workers 4,051 4,208 4,465 4,890 5,634 6,950 7,272 8,415 9,726

Education Primary and Preparatory 1000 students 2,305 2,328 2,447 2,638 2,922 3,614 3,854 4,545 5,249 Secondary and University 1000 students 1,094 1,132 1,187 1,275 1,560 2,211 2,361 2,932 3,531 Total 1000 students 3,399 3,460 3,635 3,913 4,482 5,825 6,215 7,477 8,781 Sources: SDMP report, 2008 ; JICA Study Team estimates, 2009

2.3 Analysis of Transport Demand and Services Passenger transport share in Cairo is shown in Table 6. The daily number of passengers transported by existing metro is roughly 2 million and total public transport mode passengers are estimated to be 13.7 million. According to the recent data, the average number of passengers per day between 05:15-24:15 amounted to 1.217 million on Metro Line 1 and 0.73 million on Metro Line 2.

Table 6 Estimated Passenger Transport Share Total Demand 13.7 million Metro 2.0 million CTA 4.1 million Private Bus 7.6 million Sources: JICA Study Team estimates

Final Report - Volume 2 6 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

2.4 Transport Demand Forecasting Model During all steps of travel model calibrations and demand forecast, the JICA STRADA system and the facilities of Excel spread sheets are used. In this report, methodology, step and explanation of modelling is described.

2.5 Present and Future Transportation Demand Matrix Based on the socio–economic framework up to 2050 and the transportation models developed, the present and future transportation demand is estimated according to the following conventional “four-step” approach:

(1) trip generation and attraction, (2) trip distribution, (3) modal split and (4) trip assignment.

The original estimated OD matrices have 464 traffic zone bases, but are not presented in this report due to its large volume. Therefore the forecasting results in this report are integrated into a sector zone system with 18 zones. The demand data and OD matrixes with the original 464 zones are only prepared in electronic based data using Excel or JICA STRADA data format.

The present and future trip generations by zone are estimated as shown in Table 7, and the summary results of modal share among “car mode”, “bus mode” and “rail mode” are show in Table 8.

Table 7 Trip generation and attraction (unit; thousand trips per day) No Sector Zone Gi2008 Gi2027 Gi2050 Growth Growth Growth . Rate Rate Rate 2027/2008 2050/2008 2050/2027 1 6th of October 351.7 1,879.0 2,812.4 5.34 8.00 1.50 2 Imbaba Markaz 1,579.9 2,585.0 4,450.0 1.64 2.82 1.72 3 Dokki 1,470.7 1,692.5 2,313.0 1.15 1.57 1.37 4 Giza 2,124.3 2,711.9 4,491.8 1.28 2.11 1.66 5 South Giza 513.3 627.1 865.4 1.22 1.69 1.38 6 Helwan 903.6 1,064.0 3,326.3 1.18 3.68 3.13 7 Maadi 1,098.3 1,712.2 2,873.7 1.56 2.62 1.68 8 Khaleafa 921.3 968.1 1,322.8 1.05 1.44 1.37 9 CBD 719.6 593.3 802.5 0.82 1.12 1.35 10 Shobra 1,094.0 1,118.9 1,556.2 1.02 1.42 1.39 11 Masr El Gedeeda 1,619.2 1,585.1 2,171.9 0.98 1.34 1.37 12 Nasr City 1,369.0 2,583.9 3,473.3 1.89 2.54 1.34 13 Ain Sham 1,062.5 1,385.6 1,907.4 1.30 1.80 1.38 14 Salam City 841.7 773.4 1,071.9 0.92 1.27 1.39 15 Shobra El Kheima 1,137.8 1,404.4 1,927.4 1.23 1.69 1.37 16 Qalyob 882.7 1,103.4 1,477.9 1.25 1.67 1.34 17 Qanater 1,298.2 2,102.6 4,918.2 1.62 3.79 2.34 18 10th of Ramadan 191.7 687.5 1,038.2 3.59 5.42 1.51 Total 19,179.5 26,577.9 42,800.3 1.39 2.23 1.61 Source: JICA Study Team

Final Report - Volume 2 7 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

Table 8 Result of Modal Share Estimation Year Metro Line 4 No. of Trip (thousand trip per day) Modal share (%) Phase 2 Car Bus Rail Car Bus Rail Alternative mode mode mode mode mode mode 2008 4,584 12,693 2,412 23.3% 64.5% 12.2% 2027 Alt 1 North 9,593 12,365 4,744 35.9% 46.3% 17.8% Alt 2 East 9,599 12,374 4,730 35.9% 46.3% 17.7% 2050 Alt 1 North 19,374 16,017 7,809 44.8% 37.1% 18.1% Alt 2 East 19,381 15,975 7,845 44.9% 37.0% 18.2% Source: JICA Study Team

2.6 Present and Future Metro Passenger Table 9 and Table 10 explain the number of passengers of metro by lines, each year. (Note that the number of passengers for Metro Line 4 includes both for phase 1 and phase 2 sections). For Metro Line 4 alternative 1, the total passenger volume is expected to be 5.36 million per day, which is the same for alternative 2. However the passenger volumes on Metro Lines 1 and 2 are lower than alternative 2, because the alignment of line 4 phase 2 section runs along the northern corridor where Metro lines 1 and 2 also compete. In Metro Line 4 alternative 2, the passenger volume of Metro Line 4 is bigger than alternative 2, but its phase 2 section is in conflict with Metro Line 3. It is also noted that the demand of Metro Line No.3 is very low, as compared with alternative 1.

The demand for Metro Line 1 in 2050 surpasses the design capacity. This result suggests improving the capacity or installing new public transportation service in this area.

Table 9 Summary of Metro Daily Demand (Metro Line No. 4 Alternative 1 North Extension)

Year Metro Line Metro Line Metro Line Metro Line Total 1 2 3 4 2008 No. of Passengers 1,237,000 977,000 2,214,000 (Station Boarding / Alighting) Section Maximum Passengers 54,100 42,200 per hour per direction 2027 No. of Passengers 2,105,000 1,381,000 1,686,000 1,968,000 3,964,000 (Station Boarding / Alighting) Section Maximum Passengers 62,100 36,300 59,100 53,100 per hour per direction 2050 No. of Passengers 2,704,000 1,821,000 2,087,000 2,347,000 5,362,000 (Station Boarding / Alighting) Section Maximum Passengers 64,600 42,800 67,400 55,700 per hour per direction Source: JICA Study Team

Final Report - Volume 2 8 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

Table 10 Summary of Metro Daily Demand (Metro Line No. 4 Alternative 2 East Extension)

Year Metro Line Metro Line Metro Line Metro Line Total 1 2 3 4 2008 No. of Passengers 1,237,000 977,000 2,214,000 (Station Boarding / Alighting) Section Maximum Passengers 54,100 42,200 per hour per direction 2027 No. of Passengers 2,131,000 1,452,000 1,487,000 1,814,000 4,017,000 (Station Boarding / Alighting) Section Maximum Passengers 63,000 39,100 40,000 40,300 per hour per direction 2050 No. of Passengers 2,700,000 1,896,000 1,904,000 2,360,000 5,365,000 (Station Boarding / Alighting) Section Maximum Passenger 63,600 44,000 44,000 53,000 per hour per direction Source: JICA Study Team

2.7 Transit Facility Plan

The design of stations along the route of Metro Line 4 will be needed to incorporate facilities for the transfer of passengers between road transport vehicles and the metro concourse and platforms (and vice versa). These facilities may be classified into two types:

 Full modal interchange facilities at, or near, the terminal stations and possibly at one or two major intermediate stations  Pick-up and set-down facilities at all other stations not having sufficient demand for major interchange facilities The JICA Study Team has developed conceptual layout plans for two types of modal interchange terminal: one for a large underground terminal (El Remayah Square) and another for an above ground terminal (El Giza Station). While these facilities will be of different size, the same facilities (park and ride for cars and parking bays for other road transport) will be applied to both types.

3. Track Alignment Study for Phase 1 Section

Based on the basic concept and basic design parameter which is shown in Chapter 3 in this report, JICA Study Team proposed the Phase 1 route as shown in Figure 2.

Final Report - Volume 2 9 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 2 Proposed Route for Phase 1 Section

The route will start from El Malek El Saleh Sta. (Connecting Metro Line 1), running along Salah Salem Street, and passing El Rauda, Giza Square and El Giza Sta. (Connecting Metro Line 2 and ENR Line). After the El Giza Sta., it will pass through Pyramids Road and the route will turn at Alexandria Desert Road to El Remayah Square.

From El Remayah Square to Workshop/Depot, three alternative access routes have been studied. The final route will be selected in the further study stage.

Total length of the route is approximately 17 km with 15 underground stations.

4. Route Selection for Phase 2 Section Phase 2 route is between El Malek El Saleh via El Sawaha Square and directly to Ring Road Exit #18, with a length of about 18 km, referred to as the “northern route”. In addition, an alternative Phase 2 route, starting from El Malek El Saleh to Nasr City, with a length of about 23.5 km, referred to as the “eastern route”, was evaluated and compared.

The proposed routes to be compared are “Alternative 1 (Northern Route)”, the route studied and proposed by Cairo Regional Area Transportation Study (CREATS), and “Alternative 2 (Eastern Route)”, the route studied and proposed in the “Greater Cairo Public Transport Study, Report 2, Integrated Public Transport Network Scenarios” by SYSTRA.

Northern Route and Eastern Route are shown in Figure 3.

Final Report - Volume 2 10 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

Source: JICA Study Team, Map: Quickbird Figure 3 Alternative Route Corridor for Phase2 Section (Northern Route and Eastern Route)

JICA Study Team has used Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) to select the route. Result of the analysis is shown in Table 11.

Table 11 Comparison Considering Transportation Demands in 2050 Alternative 1 (Northern Route) Alternative 2 (Eastern Route)

Multi-Criteria Analysis Score Score Score Score in Score Weight x in Score Weight x words Weight words Weight

Transportation Demand High 9.4 1.2 11.5 High 8.9 1.2 10.9 in the Far Future:2050 Cost Mod 5.4 1.2 6.5 Mod 4.6 1.2 5.5 Hard points Low 3.2 0.8 2.4 High 8.6 0.8 6.5 Construction Easiness Mod 5.0 0.7 3.4 High 7.8 0.7 5.3 Construction Schedule Mod 6.9 0.8 5.4 Mod 5.7 0.8 4.5 Environment Mod 6.9 0.8 5.6 High 5.3 0.8 4.3 Archaeological Assets High 7.4 0.9 6.3 Low 3.2 0.9 2.7 Total/Average/Total 44.21.0 41.1 44.1 1.0 39.7 Source: JICA Study Team

Final Report - Volume 2 11 Executive Summary JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO. 4

JICA Study Team recommends the construction of both alternative routes of the metro, considering the future transportation demands. The 2022 transportation demands of both lines are large enough to require the construction of the metro. However, the 2022 transportation demand of Alternative 1 is larger than that of Alternative 2.

The rehabilitation of the tramway line from Abbasia to Nasr City to efficiently connect Nasr City with the Metro Line 3 was recommended in the “Greater Cairo Public Transport Study, Report 2, Integrated Public Transport Network Scenarios” prepared by SYSTRA. Moreover, the study for the rehabilitation of this tramway as a Super Tram has already started with the financial support from World Bank.

The construction of stations on Port Side Street has some conflicts with Spine Waste Water Tunnel (SWWT). However, the recent underground construction technology and experience show that such conflict can be solved with limited additional cost.

Therefore, JICA Study Team recommends to give priority to Alternative 1 (Northern Route) and to implement the feasibility study.

Final Report - Volume 2 12 Executive Summary

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study The Greater Cairo Region, which steeped in history and contains large numbers of historical structures, is the premier city in Egypt. It is the largest city in the African continent and the Middle East region with a population of over 18 million, representing 25% of the total population of Egypt. The Cairo Metro, the only specialized metro system operating in the African continent, commenced construction in 1981. Its design was based on “Plans for Construction of Cairo Metro 3 Lines”, developed by Société Française d’études et de réalisations de transports urbains (SOFRETU) in 1973 to improve road traffic congestion.

The current status of Cairo Metro is as follows.

Phase 1 (28 km) started operation in 1987. Metro Line 1 The whole line (44 km) in full service by 1989. Phase 1 (8 km) started operation in 1996. Metro Line 2 The whole line (21.6 km) in full service by 2005. Phase 1 (4.3 km) under construction, scheduled to start operation in Metro Line 3 2011. The whole line is 34.2 km. Metro Line 3 was proposed in the “New Public Transportation Study of the Great Cairo Area” conducted by SYSTRA in 1998-2000 and in the “Cairo Regional Area Transportation Study” (CREATS) conducted under a JICA Study in 2000-2002.

As the population of the Greater Cairo Region is envisaged to increase to 20 million by the year 2017 according to the SDMP report, the Government of Egypt (GOE) is reforming the urban structure, changing from a mono-centric form to a decentralized form, notably through the development of New Urban Communities (NUCs), such as 10th of Ramadan City and 6th October City. However, the increased transport demand has not been accompanied by a substantial solution to urban problems, such as road traffic congestion, insufficient public transportation services and air pollution.

As a long term strategic development plan, General Organization for Physical Planning (GOPP) has prepared the Cairo Vision 2050. This vision document proposes 14 metro routes as the main public transport system in the Greater Cairo Region.

As a consequence, GOE has decided to construct, as early as practicable, Metro Line 4 as initially proposed by CREATS, and requested the Government of Japan (GOJ) in October 2008 to implement the “Development Study on Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4 Project (Metro Line 4 Project)”. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the official agency responsible for the implementation of GOJ’s program, has discussed with National Authority for Tunnels (NAT) of Ministry of Transport and has agreed to conduct a feasibility study for the Greater Cairo Metro Line No.4 (Metro Line 4). The document for the Scope of Work was signed on 21st December 2008.

Final Report - Volume2 1-1 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4 1.2 Objective of the Study The primary objective is to conduct a feasibility study for Metro Line 4 (line length approximately 45 km), from a depot adjacent to Dream Land to El Sawaha Square or Nasr City via the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM), El Giza Station of Metro Line 2 and El Malek El Saleh Station of Metro Line 1. This feasibility study will adopt suitable approaches for the mitigation of urban transport congestion and contribute to the sustainable development of the Greater Cairo Region. The following four key objectives will form the foundation of the study:

- To formulate a proposed route for Metro Line 4 - To assess the justification of the project - To appropriately plan the project considering its technical, economical and financial, environmental and social aspects - To carry out technology transfer to the Egyptian counterpart personnel in the course of the study

The feasibility study entitled “JICA Preparatory Survey on Greater Cairo Metro Line No. 4 in the Arab Republic of Egypt” consists of four reports. The main tasks and activities to be covered in these reports are as follows:

a) Report No. 1 (Volume 1) - Data collection, diagnosis of the existing public transport system and urban development hypothesis; - Collection of the relevant data about the existing and foreseen public utilities; - Collection of the relevant socio-economic data; and - Collection of the relevant data for preliminary design. b) Report No. 2 (Volume 2) - Analysis of all data collected for generation of Origin and Destination (O/D) matrices and development of a transportation study of the Greater Cairo Metro Line 4; - Recording of all data concerning vehicles and all transport modes, conduct of field traffic survey in the study area, and review of the demand forecast; and - Comparison and evaluation of two alternative corridors regarding Metro Line 4 alignment. c) Report No.3 (Volume 3) - Preparation of design guidelines and criteria and general features of Metro Line 4 Phase 1. - Preparation of the general design specifications of Metro Line 4. d) Report No. 4 (Volume 3) - Submission of the final results and the pertinent analysis showing the feasibility

Final Report - Volume2 1-2 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4 of the implementation of the whole project from both economic and financial perspectives.

1.3 Study Area and Administrative Setting The Study Area, shown in Figure 1-1, covers two phases, namely, (a) Phase 1 of the proposed Metro Line 4 that runs from a depot/workshop via GEM to El Malek El Saleh Station (with a length of about 21 km) and (b) Phase 2 which is a route between El Malek El Saleh via El Sawaha Square and the Ring Road (Exit No. 18) (with a length of about 18 km). In addition, an alternative Phase 2 route, starting from El Malek El Saleh to Nasr City (with a length of about 23 km), will be evaluated and compared with the originally proposed route.

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 1-1 Study Area

Final Report - Volume2 1-3

CHAPTER 2 TRANSPORTATION STUDY

JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

CHAPTER 2 TRANSPORTATION STUDY

2.1 Transport Survey

2.1.1 Introduction Field data collection in transportation studies can be considered as an important milestone. This is for two main reasons: first, because most of the decision-making process is usually based on these data and second, it needs great effort and cost to be implemented. The data usually needed for transportation studies can be classified into three main types, namely, socioeconomic and land use data, transportation infrastructure data, and travel pattern data. This report is intended to a part of the travel pattern data, which is traffic and interview data.

In that context, it will be very helpful to summarize the main findings of the traffic survey results of the recent related studies as it can be used in this study. These existing traffic count data will be very useful in analyzing the road traffic conditions and its future trends.

2.1.2 Summary of Previous Survey JICA has carried out various traffic count surveys after the CREATS Project in 2002. The JICA projects after CREATS are as follows (see Table 2-1)

1. JICA PPP 2. JICA Toll Expressway 3. JICA SDMP Table 2-1 Summary of Previous Survey Survey Number of Traffic Project Date of Traffic Survey Hour Survey JICA PPP Public Private Partnership Program For Cairo Urban Expressway Network 16 28 May 2005 Development(May 2006) JICA Toll Feasibility Study on High Priority Urban 18 24 Autumn 2007 Expressway Toll Expressways In Cairo In Arab or ※18hour:22, or Republic of Egypt(January 2009) 24 ※24hour:2 Winter 2008 JICA SDMP The Strategic Urban Development Master Plan Study for Sustainable Development of the Greater Cairo 16 8 December 2007 Region in the Arab Republic of Egypt(January 2008) Source: JICA PPP, JICA Toll Express way, JICA SDM

Figure 2-1 illustrates the traffic count locations for the three aforementioned studies while Figure 2-2 shows the traffic survey periods for each location. Figure 2-3 depicts the daily traffic volume at each of these locations on the Greater Cairo map. Table 2-3 summarizes the exact daily traffic volume at each of the traffic count locations.

Final Report - Volume2 2-1 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Source: JICA PPP, JICA Toll Express way, JICA SDMP Figure 2-1 Traffic Count Location Map（Previous Surveys）

Final Report - Volume2 2-2 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Source: JICA PPP, JICA Toll Express way, JICA SDMP Figure 2-2 Traffic Survey Hours（Previous Surveys）

Final Report - Volume2 2-3 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Source: JICA PPP, JICA Toll Expressway, JICA SDM Figure 2-3 Traffic Volume at Each Location Converted to 24-hour Unit（Previous Surveys）

Final Report - Volume2 2-4 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

------Notes Direction of traffic is only one way one only is traffic of Direction 11:50 to 10:10 from stopped movement traffic The tunnel the in accident an to due 24hour convert Average Traffic Volume 21,46714,132 -57,789 -52,86239,640 - 25,236 28,964 - 16,613 36,264 -45,992 - 67,935 83,666 - 62,143 21,574 - 46,599 - 34,049 - 42,631 55,902 54,066 70,991 98,355 82,425 - 25,362 -12,494 -78,439 65,716 35,866 - 83,454 89,080 - 96,896 27,169 -79,534 - 14,687 32,579 - 92,210 - 42,163 67,454 - 104,719 51,872 31,939 49,464 - 93,497 22,565 - 38,299 51,533 -63,785 - 79,296 35,380 - 60,979 78,451 - 58,148 90,999 - 26,527 42,993 - 60,580 35,442 - 74,983 - 41,591 - 92,224 59,973 106,975 70,281 50,541 - 41,664 - 63,868 70,281 100,791 - 118,486 118,548259,798 - -104,066 139,361 305,409 - 122,336 169,714 - 199,509 180,939103,056 - - 192,690 103,056 ce. Ring Road). ation. Location ～ T52(Rate volume:94%) volume:85%, ofRate 18hours 16hours traffic traffic Table 2-2 2-2 Table Survey Data Previous Traffic El- Barageel Street next to Imbaba airport. Imbaba to next Street Barageel El- terminal. to next Street Nahya (near Road Ring to Giza from reach the in corridor July of 26th Collage. to Sports nextFaisal Street Building. Company Distribution Electricity to next street (Pyramids) Al-Haram entran Zayed Shaikh and Road Ring between corridor July of 26th Road. Ring the near road El-Wahat of beginning The The beginning of El-Fayyoum road in front of the electricity st Bridge Warraq Rodh ElBridge Farag Imbaba Bridge Bridge May of 15th Bridge October of 6th Bridge Galaa Gamah Bridge GizaBridge Bridge Moneeb Bridge Marazeeq Corridor July of 26th Road Desert Suez Road Agriculture Alex. Ismailia Agriculture Road IsmailiaRoad Desert Autostrade Nasr Road Gesr El-Suez St. Road Desert Suez Abo Bakr El-Sedeeq St. Street Kablat El-Sayed Lotfy Road Autostrade St. Helmy Ahmed St. Ramsis Road Salem Salah Tereat El-Zomor Road St. Sudan sq. Tahreer and sq Ramsis to traffic Through direction Dokki and direction Ramsis to Through Tunnel Al-Azhar sq. lebanon to Traffic Through 16 hour Survey 4-Feb4-Feb 24 18 28-Jan 18 30-Jan 24 24-May 25-May 24-May 24-May 23-May 24-May 25-May 30-May 30-May 30-May 24-May 2007 4-Dec 16 2005 2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 A18 A21 A35 A36 A39 A42 B01 B02 B03 B04 B05 B06 B07 B08 B09 B10 Code Year Date AC20 NW01 NW02 NW03 NW04 NW05 NW06 NW07 NW08 NW09 NW10 NW11 T12～13 T33～34 T35～36 T51～52 JICA PPP, JICA Toll Express way, JICA SDMP JICA Express way, Toll JICA PPP, JICA Ramp SDMP survey Survey Sort ofSort JICA-Toll JICA-PPP Express No2 Source: *Note:24 hoursT51 convert is used previous survey result of

Final Report – Volume 2 2-5 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Notes TrafficVolume Southernof section TrafficVolume Southernof section section Western of Volume Traffic TrafficVolume Southernof section section Eastern of Volume Traffic section Western of Volume Traffic TrafficVolume Southernof section section Eastern of Volume Traffic section Eastern of Volume Traffic section Western of Volume Traffic section Western of Volume Traffic section Eastern of Volume Traffic section Eastern of Volume Traffic Traffic Volume of Northern section TrafficVolume Southernof section section Eastern of Volume Traffic Traffic Volume of Northern section section Western of Volume Traffic section Eastern of Volume Traffic section Western of Volume Traffic 83,914 99,650 78,239 71,184 88,929 96,864 114,918 132,022 127,486 108,810 131,970 104,448 129,679 111,607 142,634 110,096 135,376 154,213 143,706 148,500 24hour convert 93,573 78,797 73,468 98,078 66,843 83,506 90,957 107,910 123,971 119,711 102,174 123,922 121,771 104,801 133,936 103,382 127,121 144,809 134,943 139,444 Average Traffic Volume (81,551) (85,460) (87,124) (94,789) (94,024) (93,605) (93,540) (84,471) (73,122) (98,664) (66,946) (79,990) (95,283) (96,215) (60,120) (73,565) (95,069) (111,694) (123,370) (130,871) (143,828) (145,789) (150,624) (119,261) (142,373) (136,515) (121,796) (122,550) (125,392) (126,385) (113,037) (105,684) (104,973) (142,870) (100,873) (104,785) (138,756) (113,386) (131,718) (136,153) ret Al reet / reet Location ～ T52(Rate volume:94%) volume:85%, ofRate 18hours 16hours traffic traffic Table 2-2 2-2 Table (2) Survey Data Previous Traffic AL NAHDA (6th October Bridge / El Batal Ahmed Abdel Aziz / Waza / Aziz AhmedAbdel Batal El / Bridge October (6th NAHDA AL Zerra) DoqqiSquare /Flyover Tahrir (El Street) /Dokki Street) Dokki Qahira/ El Gamiat / (Sarwat University Cairo Abd Al Salam Arif/Sudan Street /Flyover St /Galaa Tahrir North at Way) (Exits/Entrances/Main Highway E1 Ramses Stre Nile) El Corinch / Street July of (26th East Bridge May of 15th Flyover / Road Suez Cairo / Nasr El El Nasr Road / AbbasEl Aqqad / Nozha Tayaran El / Road Nasr El Nair Abbas Road / Yousof Road Nair El / Fangray /RamsisImtedadNasrFlyover Road / El El Nasr Road / AhmedSaid /Al Amir Qaraqush Road Mokattm El / Road Nasr El / Salem Salah E3-08 to next Road Nasr El / Salem Salah AshahSquare Sayyidah AinSira Al / Salem Salah / Ayoun El Magra Flyover / Nil El Corniche / Salem Salah Giza Bridge (GamalAbdNaser El ) Flyover / Square Giza 18 hour Survey 5-Sep 7-Nov 7-Nov 6-Nov 6-Nov 7-Nov 5-Nov 5-Nov 5-Nov 17-Oct 30-Oct 23-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 24-Oct 29-Oct 22-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 30-Oct 30-Oct 29-Oct 29-Oct 31-Oct 16-Oct 31-Oct 16-Oct 31-Oct 17-Oct 17-Oct 10-Sep 11-Sep 11-Sep 11-Sep 10-Sep 10-Sep 12-Nov 13-Nov 13-Nov 12-Nov 2007 Code Year Date E03-3 E03-4 E03-5 E03-6 E03-7 E03-8 E03-9 E03-2 E01-1 E01-2 E01-3 E01-4 E02-1 E02-2 E03-1 E03-10 E03-11 E03-12 E03-13 E03-14 JICA PPP, JICA Toll Express way, JICA SDMP JICA Express way, Toll JICA PPP, JICA Traffic survey Survey Sort of JICA-Toll Express No1 Source: *Note:24 hoursT51 convert is used previous survey result of

Final Report – Volume 2 2-6 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4 2.1.3 Components and Purpose of Transport Survey The transport survey in this study consists of four main components as follows:

1．Link Traffic Count Survey (LT survey) 2．Screen Line Survey (SL survey) 3．Interview Survey for Car Users and Public Transport Users 4．Interview Survey for Tourists The purpose of this transport survey is:

 To recognize the traffic volume characteristics on the roads along the route of Metro Line 4.  To study the direct impact on the road traffic along Metro Line 4, such as the level of service, air pollution and noise level.  To get necessary information for traffic control and management plans during the construction stage.  Validate the main output of the transportation planning models that will be developed in this study, On the other hand, the main objectives of the interview survey are:

 To calibrate a modal choice model  To measure their willingness to pay for a new metro service that would be safer and more time-saving

2.1.4 Link Traffic Count Survey

(1) Survey Locations As mentioned earlier, JICA has executed various traffic surveys in previous studies. Therefore, the number of survey locations was decided considering the maximum and effective usage of their results. The traffic count survey locations should be along the proposed route of Metro Line 4. The proposed route consists of two phases: the first phase will be along Pyramids Road starting from an area close to El Remayah Square until El Malek El Saleh. As for the second phase, there are two main alternatives: the first will be through Port-Said Street to the north direction and the second will be to the east direction to Nasr City District. Twelve main locations were selected along the route of phase 1 after discussion with National Authority for Tunnel (NAT) representatives. Figure 2-4 shows these locations and Table 2-3 shows the corresponding list. Appendix 1 shows their respective exact locations. As for the north direction alternative of phase 2, ten locations were proposed after discussion with NAT representatives. Figure 2-5 also depicts these locations and Table 2-4 shows the related list. Appendix 2 meanwhile shows the corresponding exact locations.

The locations for the east alternative of phase 2 will be delayed until the exact route alignment is finally established.

Final Report – Volume 2 2-7 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 2-4 Proposed Link Traffic Count Survey Locations along Pyramids Road Table 2-3 List of Link Traffic Count Survey Locations along Pyramids Road Ser. no Code Location 1 LT1 El Remaya Square 2 LT2 Close to Mansouria intersection 3 LT3 Close to Maryoutia intersection Close to EL-Shaikh El-Sherbini intersection (Matba’ah 4 LT4 Station) 5 LT5 Close to Kafr Tohormos Street intersection 6 LT6 Close to Sayed Abo-Khair Street intersection 7 LT7 Close to Ter’et El-Zomor Street intersection 8 LT8 Between El Giza Square and El-Haram Tunnel 9 LT9 El-Gam’ah Street close to Giza Square 10 LT10 Mourad Street close to Giza Square 11 LT11 Close to Abbas Bridge 12 LT12 Rabeea El-Jeezi Street close to Giza Square Source: JICA Study Team

Table 2-4 List of Link Traffic Count Survey Locations along Port-Said Street Ser. no Code Location 1 LT13 Close to Sayyedah Zainab Square 2 LT14 Port Said between Bab El-Khalq Square and Sayyedah Zainab Square 3 LT15 Port Said - between El-Gaish Square and Bab El-Khalq Square 4 LT16 Close to Ghamrah Bridge from the south direction 5 LT17 Between Dair El-Malak and El-Sharakat Streets 6 LT18 Port Said - between Sekkat- El-Wayly Street and Ghamrah Bridge 7 LT19 Close to El-Swaah Square from the south side Port Said extension (Ismaellia agricultural road) -between El- Ameeryah Bridge and 8 LT20 Mostorod Bridge Port Said extension (Ismaellia agricultural road) -between Mostorod Bridge and the Ring 9 LT21 Road 10 LT22 Between Mostorod and Ring Road Source: JICA Study Team

Final Report – Volume 2 2-8 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

E

Source: JICA Study Team, 2009 Figure 2-5 Proposed Link Traffic Count Survey Locations along Port Said Street

Final Report – Volume 2 2-9 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4 (2) Vehicle Types The traffic volume will be counted manually. It will be classified based on the following ten vehicle types:

 Passenger Car  Taxi  Shared Taxi/Minibus  Bus  Pick-up  Truck  Heavy Truck (over 3-Axle, trailer and semi-trailer)  Motorcycle / Bicycle  Others A form, shown in Figure 2-6, was designed by JICA Study Team to be used for the traffic count process by the surveyors.

(3) Traffic Count Period The traffic count will be conducted on two different working days (Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday). The traffic count period will be 19 hours from 6:00 am to 1:00 am at all locations except for two locations at Pyramids Road (El-Haram Street) and one location at Port Said Street, where the period will be 24 hours. The main objective of the 24-hr counting locations is to get some factors for converting the other 19-hr traffic count locations to equivalent 24-hr counts.

2.1.5 Screen Line Traffic Count Survey The main objective of the screen line survey is to validate the main output of the transportation planning models that will be developed in this study. The traffic count process at the screen line locations has been already finished.

(1) Screen Line Locations Nine main locations were selected for the traffic count. All the screen line locations actually consist of bridges over the Nile River. Figure 2-7 shows these locations and Table 2-5 shows the related list. Appendix 3 meanwhile shows the exact locations of each.

Final Report – Volume 2 2-10 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 2-6 Traffic Count Form

Final Report – Volume 2 2-11 JICA PREPARATORY SURVEY ON GREATER CAIRO METRO LINE NO.4

(2) Screen Line Traffic Count Periods All the screen line locations were conducted on two days, i.e., one on a normal working day and the other on a Friday. The traffic count period was 16 hours from 6:00 am to 10:00 pm for all locations. The process was conducted with the same procedure as the previous traffic count location considering the same vehicle type classification.

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 2-7 Screen Line Survey Location Map Table 2-5 List of Screen Line Survey Locations, Survey Day and Dates Link Name Link Code Day Survey Date Ring Road at Maadi Bridge SL1 Wednesday, Friday 27th May, 29th May Abbas Bridge SL2 Monday, Friday 25th May, 29th May Al-Gamah Bridge SL3 Monday, Friday 25th May, 5th June Qasr El Neel Bridge SL4 Tuesday, Friday 19th May, 12th June 6th October Bridge – between SL5 Tuesday, Friday 19th May, 12th June Abdel-Monem Riyadh and ramps 15 May Bridge SL6 Tuesday, Friday 19th May, 12th June Imbaba Bridge SL7 Wednesday, Friday 20th May, 5th June Rod AlFarag Bridge SL8 Wednesday, Friday 20th May, 5th June Ring Road at Alwarraq Bridge SL9 Wednesday, Friday 27th May, 29th May Source: JICA Study Team

Final Report – Volume 2 2-12