Assessment of renewable energy potentials based on GIS.
A case study in southwest region of Russia.

by
Alisa Melnikova (M. Sc., M. Sc.) from Bendery, Moldova

Accepted Dissertation thesis for the partial fulfilment of the requirements for a Doctor of Political Sciences (Dr. rer. pol.)
Fachbereich 7: Natur- und Umweltwissenschaften
University Koblenz-Landau

Thesis examiners:
Prof. Dr. Oliver Frör, Universität Koblenz-Landau, 1st examiner Dr. Stefan Jergentz, Universität Koblenz-Landau, 2nd examiner

Date of the oral examination: 28.03.2018

Declaration

I hereby declare that I autonomously conducted the work presented in this PhD thesis entitled “Assessment of renewable energy potentials based on GIS. A case study in southwest region of Russia”. All used assistances and involved contributors are clearly declared. This thesis has never been submitted elsewhere for an exam, as a thesis or for evaluation in a similar context to any department of this University or any scientific institution. I am aware that a violation of the aforementioned conditions can have legal consequences.

Landau in der Pfalz, 10.04.2018

• Place, date
• Signature

Acknowledgements

Foremost, I would like to gratefully acknowledge my supervisor Prof. Dr. Oliver Frör for providing me a chance to pursue a doctoral degree at the University of Koblenz-Landau. He has given me valuable comments on my study and supervised this PhD thesis. I am sincerely grateful for his patience, motivation and immense knowledge.

Furthermore, I am also very thankful to Dr. Stefan Jergentz for his support and valuable suggestions on my final thesis and being second examiner.

I gratefully acknowledge the scholarships, which gave me the financial support for 3 years of my PhD thesis, the DAAD (Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst) for the first scholarship from October 2014 to July 2015 and an additional scholarship from August 2017 to October 2017 as well as Lotto Rheinland-Pfalz – Stiftung Sozial-Stipendien for providing a 2-years scholarship from July 2015 to July 2017.

I would like to thank the project NAWI (Förderung für Nachwuchswissenschaftlerinnen) from IPZ (Interdisziplinäres Promotionszentrum der Universität Koblenz-Landau) for supporting me during the preparation and conducting my doctoral study with useful workshops, networking measures and funding for scientific activities: visiting conferences and summer schools.

Moreover, I acknowledge all my colleagues from the University of Koblenz-Landau, (particularly Dr. D. Elsaesser and A. Ampofo), from Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (K. Mainzer) and from the Moscow State University (especially J. Rafikova and Dr. S. Kiseleva), who gave me valuable comments and ideas during my PhD study.

Furthermore, I thank the partners from the industry and commerce brache: 1) SOWITEC group GmbH for the regular informational support and advices since October 2016 and 2) PFI (Prüf- und Forschungsinstitut Pirmasens e.V.) for the valuable support and information.

I am also very grateful for the administrative staff, in the first place Franziska Wollnik and Jone Kammerer.

Finally, I will forever be thankful to my family and friends, for providing support, understanding and friendship that I needed. I truly thank my mom and dad for sticking by my side during all the times. Finally, the unique thanks should belong to my husband, making my study and life filled with great meaning and love.

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Table of Content

List of Tables................................................................................................................................. 8 List of Abbreviations................................................................................................................... 11 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... 12
Outline of the thesis ................................................................................................................ 20

2. State of the art of using GIS for the assessment of RES potentials......................................... 22

2.1 Geospatial data selection................................................................................................... 24 2.2 Multi-layer approach......................................................................................................... 27 2.3 Scale determination........................................................................................................... 30

2.4 Energy situation and energy infrastructure assessment..................................................... 32 2.5 Impact of environmental effects, buffer zones and other limitations................................ 35

2.6 Economic and market potential......................................................................................... 36 2.7 Conclusions and central research questions ...................................................................... 39 2.8 Study country .................................................................................................................... 43

2.8.1 Russia in the context of international and national energy transition ........................ 44 2.8.2 The legal national framework for energy use and efficiency..................................... 47

2.9 Selection of a suitable model/study region........................................................................ 49

2.9.1 Krasnodar region: geographical, economic and energy description........................... 52

Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 58

3.1 Significance of a comprehensive RES potential assessment............................................. 58 3.2 The multi-criteria assessment methodology for the evaluation of RES potentials in the

Krasnodar region..................................................................................................................... 60

3.3 Data sources relevant for the assessment of RES potentials in Krasnodar region ............ 62

3.4 Theoretical resource potential........................................................................................... 63
3.4.1 Onshore wind energy ................................................................................................. 63 3.4.2 Solar energy................................................................................................................ 68 3.4.3 Biomass energy .......................................................................................................... 72
3.5 Technical potential............................................................................................................ 75
3.5.1 Onshore wind energy ................................................................................................. 75 3.5.2 Solar energy................................................................................................................ 76 3.5.3 Biomass energy .......................................................................................................... 77
3.6 Energy situation ................................................................................................................ 79 3.7 Economic potential............................................................................................................ 83
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3.7.1 Onshore wind energy ................................................................................................. 83 3.7.2 Solar energy................................................................................................................ 84 3.7.3 Biomass energy .......................................................................................................... 85
3.8 Market potential ................................................................................................................ 87

3.9 Scenarios and recommendations on the development of RES.......................................... 88

4 Results and discussion.............................................................................................................. 89
4.1 Energy status of the Krasnodar region .............................................................................. 90

4.2 Constraints restricting the installation of RES facilities.................................................... 96

4.3 Market climate for RES in the Krasnodar region............................................................ 100 4.4 Wind energy potential..................................................................................................... 103 4.5 Solar energy potential...................................................................................................... 110 4.6 Biomass energy potential ................................................................................................ 117

4.7 Scenarios on development of RES potentials in the Krasnodar region........................... 125 4.8 Recommendations for an improved introduction of RES in the model region ............... 129

6 Outlook................................................................................................................................... 135 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 137 References................................................................................................................................. 145 Curriculum vitae........................................................................................................................ 154
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List of Tables

Chapter 3 Table 3.1 Data used for the assessment of the theoretical onshore wind potential..................... 64 Table 3.2 Constraints prohibiting the installation of wind farms................................................ 65 Table 3.3 Suitability classes for the assessment of areas for the installation of wind turbines........................................................................................................................ 67
Table 3.4 Data used for the assessment of the theoretical solar potential................................... 69 Table 3.5 Constraints prohibiting the installation of PV systems ............................................... 70 Table 3.6 Suitability classes for the assessment of areas for the installation of PV modules ....................................................................................................................... 71
Table 3.7 Data used for the assessment of the theoretical biomass energy potential.................. 72 Table 3.8 Constraints for the installation of biomass power plants ............................................ 72 Table 3.9 Suitability classes for the assessment of areas for the installation of biomass power plants ................................................................................................................ 74
Table 3.10 Data used for the assessment of the usable biomass energy potential ...................... 78 Table 3.11 Data used for the assessment of the energy situation and energy infrastructure in the Krasnodar region....................................................................... 80
Table 3.12 Classification of outages in the electricity grid of the Krasnodar region.................. 82 Table 3.13 Data used for the assessment of the economic biomass energy potential................. 85

Chapter 4 Table 4.1 General screening parameters used for arranging of exclusion zones ........................ 96 Table 4.2 Districts with the highest technical potential for wind energy production................ 106 Table 4.3 Economic potential based on two wind farm projects near Yeysk and Anapa ......... 107 Table 4.4 Technical biomass potential from different types of biomass................................... 119 Table 4.5 Capital costs for the construction of a biogas plants................................................. 122

Appendix Table A.1 The output raster maps from the r.sun model .......................................................... 140 Table A.2 Necessary input parameters for r.sun model............................................................ 141

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List of Figures

Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 General structure of GIS data collection and management........................................ 16 Figure 1.2 Main barriers for a successful RES development ...................................................... 18

Chapter 2 Figure 2.1 Decrease the initial potential of RES by every assessment stage .............................. 22 Figure 2.2 Sample model input layers and screening criteria for utility-scale solar photovoltaic power suitability model......................................................................... 28
Figure 2.3 Comparison of small and large cell sizes................................................................... 30 Figure 2.4 RES potential distribution in Russian Federation...................................................... 45 Figure 2.5 Legal mechanisms to support renewable energy in Russia........................................ 48 Figure 2.6 Governmental support of RES................................................................................... 48 Figure 2.7 Location of the Krasnodar region .............................................................................. 52 Figure 2.8 Districts of the Krasnodar region............................................................................... 53 Figure 2.9 Average climate graph of the study region................................................................ 54

Chapter 3 Figure 3.1 Workflow of the multi-criteria assessment methodology.......................................... 61 Figure 3.2 Workflow of the theoretical onshore wind energy potential...................................... 63 Figure 3.3 Workflow of the theoretical solar energy potential ................................................... 68 Figure 3.4 Workflow of the theoretical biomass energy potential.............................................. 73 Figure 3.5 Workflow of the technical biomass energy potential................................................. 77 Figure 3.6 Workflow for the assessment of the energy situation................................................ 79 Figure 3.7 Map of the energy system of the Krasnodar region................................................... 82

Chapter 4 Figure 4.1 The structure of the Krasnodar region energy system in 2016 .................................. 90 Figure 4.2 Energy consumption by sectors in the areas of Krasnodar region............................. 91 Figure 4.3 The total electricity consumption in the study region in million kWh ...................... 93 Figure 4.4 Spatial distribution of energy polygons and main power plants................................ 93 Figure 4.5 Spatial distribution of factors affecting the introduction of RES facilities................ 94 Figure 4.6 The suitability of the Krasnodar region for installation of RES facilities in terms of exclusion zones ........................................................................................... 97
Figure 4.7 Spatial distribution of factors affecting market conditions for RES introduction in the Krasnodar region....................................................................... 100
Figure 4.8 Stage 1: Wind speed distribution of the Krasnodar region...................................... 103 Figure 4.9 Stage 1: Available theoretical wind potential of the Krasnodar region distinguished in suitability classes ........................................................................... 104
Figure 4.10 Stage 2: Spatial distribution of the wind power density of the Krasnodar region...................................................................................................................... 105
Figure 4.11 Stage 2: Annual energy production for different Vestas turbines.......................... 106 Figure 4.12 Stage 3: Economically feasible areas for the construction of wind energy facilities.................................................................................................................. 108

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Figure 4.13 Stage1: The theoretical solar energy potential of the Krasnodar region................ 110 Figure 4.14 Stage 1: The theoretical solar energy potential of the Krasnodar region after application of limiting factors and grouped in suitability classes .......................... 111
Figure 4.15 Stage 2: Average monthly values of the sky cover in the Krasnodar region ......... 112 Figure 4.16 Stage 2: Spatial distribution of the technical solar energy potential (Whm^-2) ....... 113 Figure 4.17 Stage 2: Variations in regional energy consumption and average electricity production from 1KW PV system by month in Krasnodar region......................... 114
Figure 4.18 Stage 3: Spatial distribution of PV production unit energy cost............................ 115 Figure 4.19 Stage 1: Model of the theoretical biomass potential.............................................. 117 Figure 4.20 Stage 1: The available theoretical biomass potential after application of exclusion zones....................................................................................................................... 118
Figure 4.21 Stage 2: Spatial distribution of technical biomass energy potential ...................... 120 Figure 4.22 Stage 3: Spatial distribution of annual usable biomass for rural biomass power plants ...................................................................................................................... 121
Figure 4.23 Stage 3: Spatial distribution of annual usable biomass for urban biomass power plants ...................................................................................................................... 121

Appendix Figure A3.1 An example of Rosreestr table.............................................................................. 137 Figure A3.2 Determination and snapping of the turning points................................................ 138 Figure A3.4 Wind energy potential: data sources, data processing and cartographical output..................................................................................................................... 142
Figure A3.5 Solar energy potential: data sources, data processing and cartographical output...................................................................................................................... 143
Figure A3.6 Biomass energy potential: data sources, data processing and cartographical output...................................................................................................................... 144