Assessment of renewable energy potentials based on GIS. A case study in southwest region of Russia. by Alisa Melnikova (M. Sc., M. Sc.) from Bendery, Moldova Accepted Dissertation thesis for the partial fulfilment of the requirements for a Doctor of Political Sciences (Dr. rer. pol.) Fachbereich 7: Natur- und Umweltwissenschaften University Koblenz-Landau Thesis examiners: Prof. Dr. Oliver Frör, Universität Koblenz-Landau, 1st examiner Dr. Stefan Jergentz, Universität Koblenz-Landau, 2nd examiner Date of the oral examination: 28.03.2018 Declaration I hereby declare that I autonomously conducted the work presented in this PhD thesis entitled “Assessment of renewable energy potentials based on GIS. A case study in south- west region of Russia”. All used assistances and involved contributors are clearly de- clared. This thesis has never been submitted elsewhere for an exam, as a thesis or for evaluation in a similar context to any department of this University or any scientific in- stitution. I am aware that a violation of the aforementioned conditions can have legal consequences. Landau in der Pfalz, 10.04.2018 Place, date Signature Acknowledgements Foremost, I would like to gratefully acknowledge my supervisor Prof. Dr. Oliver Frör for providing me a chance to pursue a doctoral degree at the University of Koblenz-Landau. He has given me valuable comments on my study and supervised this PhD thesis. I am sincerely grateful for his patience, motivation and immense knowledge. Furthermore, I am also very thankful to Dr. Stefan Jergentz for his support and valuable suggestions on my final thesis and being second examiner. I gratefully acknowledge the scholarships, which gave me the financial support for 3 years of my PhD thesis, the DAAD (Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst) for the first scholarship from October 2014 to July 2015 and an additional scholarship from August 2017 to October 2017 as well as Lotto Rheinland-Pfalz – Stiftung Sozial-Stipendien for providing a 2-years scholarship from July 2015 to July 2017. I would like to thank the project NAWI (Förderung für Nachwuchswissenschaftlerinnen) from IPZ (Interdisziplinäres Promotionszentrum der Universität Koblenz-Landau) for supporting me during the preparation and conducting my doctoral study with useful work- shops, networking measures and funding for scientific activities: visiting conferences and summer schools. Moreover, I acknowledge all my colleagues from the University of Koblenz-Landau, (particularly Dr. D. Elsaesser and A. Ampofo), from Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (K. Mainzer) and from the Moscow State University (especially J. Rafikova and Dr. S. Kiseleva), who gave me valuable comments and ideas during my PhD study. Furthermore, I thank the partners from the industry and commerce brache: 1) SOWITEC group GmbH for the regular informational support and advices since October 2016 and 2) PFI (Prüf- und Forschungsinstitut Pirmasens e.V.) for the valuable support and infor- mation. I am also very grateful for the administrative staff, in the first place Franziska Wollnik and Jone Kammerer. Finally, I will forever be thankful to my family and friends, for providing support, under- standing and friendship that I needed. I truly thank my mom and dad for sticking by my side during all the times. Finally, the unique thanks should belong to my husband, making my study and life filled with great meaning and love. 6 Table of Content List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. 8 List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................... 11 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Outline of the thesis ................................................................................................................ 20 2. State of the art of using GIS for the assessment of RES potentials ......................................... 22 2.1 Geospatial data selection ................................................................................................... 24 2.2 Multi-layer approach ......................................................................................................... 27 2.3 Scale determination ........................................................................................................... 30 2.4 Energy situation and energy infrastructure assessment ..................................................... 32 2.5 Impact of environmental effects, buffer zones and other limitations ................................ 35 2.6 Economic and market potential ......................................................................................... 36 2.7 Conclusions and central research questions ...................................................................... 39 2.8 Study country .................................................................................................................... 43 2.8.1 Russia in the context of international and national energy transition ........................ 44 2.8.2 The legal national framework for energy use and efficiency ..................................... 47 2.9 Selection of a suitable model/study region........................................................................ 49 2.9.1 Krasnodar region: geographical, economic and energy description........................... 52 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 58 3.1 Significance of a comprehensive RES potential assessment ............................................. 58 3.2 The multi-criteria assessment methodology for the evaluation of RES potentials in the Krasnodar region ..................................................................................................................... 60 3.3 Data sources relevant for the assessment of RES potentials in Krasnodar region ............ 62 3.4 Theoretical resource potential ........................................................................................... 63 3.4.1 Onshore wind energy ................................................................................................. 63 3.4.2 Solar energy................................................................................................................ 68 3.4.3 Biomass energy .......................................................................................................... 72 3.5 Technical potential ............................................................................................................ 75 3.5.1 Onshore wind energy ................................................................................................. 75 3.5.2 Solar energy................................................................................................................ 76 3.5.3 Biomass energy .......................................................................................................... 77 3.6 Energy situation ................................................................................................................ 79 3.7 Economic potential ............................................................................................................ 83 7 3.7.1 Onshore wind energy ................................................................................................. 83 3.7.2 Solar energy................................................................................................................ 84 3.7.3 Biomass energy .......................................................................................................... 85 3.8 Market potential ................................................................................................................ 87 3.9 Scenarios and recommendations on the development of RES .......................................... 88 4 Results and discussion .............................................................................................................. 89 4.1 Energy status of the Krasnodar region .............................................................................. 90 4.2 Constraints restricting the installation of RES facilities.................................................... 96 4.3 Market climate for RES in the Krasnodar region ............................................................ 100 4.4 Wind energy potential ..................................................................................................... 103 4.5 Solar energy potential...................................................................................................... 110 4.6 Biomass energy potential ................................................................................................ 117 4.7 Scenarios on development of RES potentials in the Krasnodar region ........................... 125 4.8 Recommendations for an improved introduction of RES in the model region ............... 129 6 Outlook ................................................................................................................................... 135 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 137 References ................................................................................................................................