ISSN 1198-6727
FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES: ECOSYSTEM MODELS OF HUDSON BAY, KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I, AND THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA Fisheries Centre Research Reports 2012 Volume 20 Number 2
ISSN 1198-6727
Fisheries Centre Research Reports
2012 Volume 20 Number 2
FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES: ECOSYSTEM MODELS OF HUDSON BAY, KALOKO- HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I, AND THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA
Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Canada
FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES: ECOSYSTEM MODELS OF HUDSON BAY, KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I, AND THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA
Edited by Colette C. C. Wabnitz and Carie Hoover
Fisheries Centre Research Reports 20(2) 182 pages © published 2012 by
The Fisheries Centre, AERL University of British Columbia
2202 Main Mall Vancouver, B.C., Canada, V6T 1Z4
ISSN 1198-6727
Fisheries Centre Research Reports 20(2) 2012
FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES: ECOSYSTEM MODELS OF HUDSON BAY, KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I, AND THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA
Edited by Colette C. C. Wabnitz and Carie Hoover
CONTENTS
AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL OF HUDSON BAY, CANADA WITH CHANGES FROM 1970-2009 ...... 2 ABSTRACT ...... 2 INTRODUCTION ...... 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS ...... 3 ECOSYSTEM OVERVIEW ...... 3 MODEL EQUATIONS ...... 4 MODEL PARAMETERS BY FUNCTIONAL GROUP ...... 5 ECOSIM PARAMETERS ...... 26 FITTING THE MODEL TO DATA ...... 30 RESULTS ...... 33 BALANCING THE MODEL ...... 33 MONTE CARLO RESULTS ...... 35 FITTING RESULTS ...... 36 DISCUSSION ...... 39 CONCLUSIONS ...... 40 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... 41 REFERENCES ...... 42 APPENDIX 1 : MARINE MAMMAL MORTALITY CALCULATIONS ...... 49 APPENDIX 2 : BIRD SPECIES FOUND WITHIN THE HUDSON BAY MODEL AREA ...... 50 APPENDIX 3: FISH FUNCTIONAL GROUPS AND SPECIES INCLUDED IN EACH GROUP ...... 54 APPENDIX 4: VULNERABILITIES USED TO FIT THE MODEL ...... 55 APPENDIX 5: MIXED TROPHIC IMPACT RESULTS ...... 58 APPENDIX 6: COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION (CV) VALUES USED FOR MONTE CARLO ROUTINE ...... 63 APPENDIX 7: MONTE CARLO RESULTS FOR ESTIMATES OF BIOMASS ...... 64 APPENDIX 8: ECOSIM OUTPUT BIOMASS TRENDS ...... 67 BASELINE TROPHIC RELATIONSHIPS IN KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I ...... 69 ABSTRACT ...... 69 INTRODUCTION ...... 69 MATERIALS AND METHODS ...... 71 STUDY AREA ...... 71 MODELING APPROACH ...... 72 MODEL PARAMETERS AND FUNCTIONAL GROUPS ...... 73 RESULTS ...... 86 DISCUSSION ...... 89 DESCRIPTION OF THE KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU SYSTEM ...... 89 TURTLES AT CARRYING CAPACITY ...... 91 POTENTIAL THREATS DUE TO URBAN DEVELOPMENT ...... 92 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...... 94 REFERENCES ...... 95
APPENDIX 1: SPECIES INCLUDED UNDER EACH REEF FISH FUNCTIONAL GROUP ...... 106 THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA MARINE ECOSYSTEM MODEL AND SIMULATIONS: 1978-PRESENT ...... 108 ABSTRACT ...... 108 INTRODUCTION ...... 108 METHODS ...... 110 MODEL EQUATIONS ...... 110 SPECIES GROUPS ...... 111 ECOSIM INPUT ...... 137 RESULTS ...... 144 MODEL BALANCING ...... 144 FITTING THE MODEL ...... 146 DISCUSSION ...... 153 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... 155 REFERENCES ...... 156 APPENDIX 1 : VULNERABILITIES USED FOR THE FITTED MODEL ...... 166 APPENDIX 2: MIXED TROPHIC IMPACTS ...... 169 APPENDIX 3: CV VALUES USED FOR THE MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS ...... 174 APPENDIX 4: MONTE CARLO RESULTS ...... 175 APPENDIX 5: MONTE CARLO RESULTS FOR BIOMASS ...... 177 APPENDIX 6: FITTED MODEL COMPARISONS ...... 180
A Research Report from the Fisheries Centre at UBC
182 pages © Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, 2012
FISHERIES CENTRE RESEARCH REPORTS ARE ABSTRACTED IN THE FAO AQUATIC SCIENCES AND FISHERIES ABSTRACTS (ASFA) ISSN 1198-6727 From the Tropics to the Poles, Wabnitz and Hoover
DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD
This report summarizes the existing knowledge on three ecosystems: Hudson Bay, Canada, Kaloko- Honokōhau, Hawai‘i, and the Antarctic Peninsula, Antarctica. Through the construction of ecosystem models representing these three regions, research from numerous aspects of each ecosystem are pieced together to present a holistic story. While we live in a rapidly changing world, it is important to remember there are many regions where we are still gaining an understanding of basic knowledge.
Research on these ecosystems, from the Arctic to the tropics to the Antarctic, presents different levels of our knowledge. For the Arctic (Hudson Bay) the focus is identifying changes known to be occurring for certain species, and addressing the reasons for those changes in addition to the greater implications to the rest of the ecosystem. In the tropics (Hawai‘i) the construction of a model allows insight into structure and function of the ecosystem focusing on the role of an endangered species, the green sea turtle, and provides a baseline to assess potential future impacts on the ecosystem from coastal development. In the Antarctic (Antarctic Peninsula) ecosystem, environmental changes are explored as they impact a key link in the food web.
While the models presented address localized issues relating to very different regions of the world, the ultimate goal is the same; to increase our understanding of ecosystems as a whole and the different stressors related to each region. With this knowledge, we can formulate better questions for future research, assist in informing managers, and hopefully gain greater insights and understanding of the likely impact of future stressors.
U. RASHID SUMAILA Director and Professor UBC Fisheries Centre December 2012
2 An Ecosystem Model of Hudson Bay, Canada
AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL OF HUDSON BAY, CANADA WITH CHANGES FROM 1970-20091
Carie Hoover, Tony J Pitcher, and Villy Christensen Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4 Email:[email protected]
ABSTRACT An ecosystem model was created for the Hudson Bay region, Canada, for 1970-2010, aiming to identify the threats of global warming to marine mammals. The model presented in detail here includes 40 functional groups and provides estimates for previously unknown parameters such as biomass of fish species, given ecosystem constraints, using the Ecopath with Ecosim modeling framework. The model is tuned to all catch data known for the region. In addition to providing a comprehensive overview of the trophic dynamics within the system, temporal simulations driven by declines in sea ice mimic the changes known to occur to the region. The model captures many dynamics present in the system, while identifying gaps in existing data for future research and as the basis for work simulating climate change and its impacts on the ecosystem.
INTRODUCTION Polar Regions are increasing in temperature faster than temperate areas, with Arctic temperature rising at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004). The fourth International Polar Year (IPY) in 2007-2009 highlighted the need for research to increase our knowledge of the dynamics occurring in Polar areas.
Hudson Bay (HB) is a unique ecosystem. While in location it is considered sub-Arctic, between 50-70˚N, the climate of this system is atypical reflecting high Arctic climate and biogeography, especially when considering higher trophic level animals. For example, polar bears, one of the most famous examples, are found at their lowest latitudinal range in HB, due to the cold winters and the ice available for foraging (Stirling and Parkinson 2006). Moreover, many species present in this ecosystem have adapted to the seasonal ice cycle, from whales occupying the region during the ice free seasons, and seals breeding on the ice, to the ability of smaller zooplankton to survive winter months using nutrients frozen within the sea ice (Poltermann 2001; Stewart and Lockhart 2005).
While surface temperatures in Hudson Bay have increased 0.5-1.5˚C during 1955-2005 2005 (Hansen et al. 2006), sea ice decreased by 2000±900 km2 year-1 between 1978 and 1996 (Parkinson et al. 1999). These changes combined with a longer ice free season (Gagnon and Gough 2005) have unknown consequences for the marine ecosystem. There is a greater need than ever to utilize the available data to discover new information within HB and other polar regions.
HB, being relatively unstudied compared to other parts of the Arctic and Antarctic, became the focus for an ecosystem model as part of the Global Warming and Arctic Marine Mammals (GWAMM) project as funded by IPY (International Polar Year) and DFO (Department of Fisheries and Oceans). The aim of the ecosystem model presented in this report is to gain a deeper understanding of the trophic links within the Hudson Bay, particularly those impinging on marine mammals, and to understand how the ecosystem structure might change due to future climate change.
1 Cite as: Hoover, C., Pitcher, T.J., and Christensen, V. (2012) An Ecosystem Model of Hudson Bay, Canada and Changes from 1970- 2009, p. 2-68. In: Wabnitz, C.C.C. and Hoover, C. (eds.) From the tropics to the poles: Ecosystem models of Hudson Bay, Kaloko- Honokōhau, Hawai‛i, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Fisheries Centre Research Reports 20(2). Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia [ISSN 1198-6727].
From the Tropics to the Poles, Wabnitz and Hoover
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Ecosystem Overview The Hudson Bay ecosystem has been an integral part of Canadian history, most notably in the 18th century with the expansion of the fur trade by Hudson’s Bay Company (Stewart and Lockhart 2005). Prior to this Thule and Dorset cultures had survived for thousands of years by hunting marine mammals. Presently, Inuit and Cree populations inhabit the coast of Hudson Bay, along with additional communities further north in the Canadian archipelago. The majority of Inuit and Cree reside in Nunavut and the Nunavik portion of Quebec (which represents the top third of the province, and is comprised of First Nations).
The greater HB complex often includes Hudson Bay, James Bay (JB), Foxe Basin (FB) and Hudson Strait (HS) (figure 1). This system is one of the largest bodies of water in the world to freeze over every winter and open up every summer. HB and JB are both categorized by shallow, less productive waters, with large inputs of freshwater from rivers in the spring. Conversely, Foxe Basin and Hudson Strait have more mixing with the Labrador Sea (Straneo and Saucier 2008), and are thought to be an important sea ice chokepoint for Hudson Bay, ultimately determining which marine species have access to the region (Higdon and Ferguson 2009).
Figure 1: Greater Hudson Bay region and associated communities.
There is a large gradient regarding the types of lower trophic level species found from the north to southern HB, although marine mammals are able to utilize the whole region. Selection of the model area was based on use patterns of marine mammals as their data is more prevalent compared to fish and plankton species, and because modelling aims to focus on the impact of climate change on marine mammal species. James Bay was included in the model area due to its similarity to southern HB. Belugas from two of the three stocks found within HB reside in or near JB in the summer months; therefore this region was believed to be important. Hudson Strait and Foxe Basin were excluded from the model area, as the model area was already quite large and incorporation of these areas was not believed to be essential to
4 An Ecosystem Model of Hudson Bay, Canada understanding the dynamics within HB. For the remainder of this paper, referral to Hudson Bay will include James Bay.
The time period for the model was selected to be 1970. This was chosen as few studies were completed prior to the 1960s regarding estimates of marine species. In addition decreases in sea ice and rising temperatures have been recorded over the last 50 years (Gagnon and Gough 2005), thus making for an interesting time to examine the ecosystem. Finally, there was a lack of data pre-1970, indicating no additional information regarding the ecosystem would be gained by expanding the modelling temporally.
Model Equations The basic Ecopath model requires various parameters as input; biomass, production, consumption, and ecotrophic efficiency (Christensen et al. 2005). Production and consumption values are entered as a ratio to the biomass of a species group (i.e. production/consumption). The master equations (eq. 1-3) to this modelling method are:
(1) Production=predation + fishery+ biomass change+ net migration+ other mortality
(2) Consumption= production + unassimilated food + respiration
(3) EE= 1- other mortality
Biomasses for all groups, where available, were based on the abundance of individual species or species groups multiplied by an average weight per individual and divided among the model area. For Hudson Bay and James Bay the estimated area was nearly 900,000 km2 (Legendre et al. 1996).
For each functional group (or species group) one parameter may be left missing to be solved by the program. Through the use of linear equations, and trophic links, these missing parameters may be solved for. Trophic links are incorporated in the model through the use of the diet matrix.
Temporal simulations are then generated in Ecosim using equation 4;