ISSN 1198-6727 FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES: ECOSYSTEM MODELS OF HUDSON BAY, KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I, AND THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA Fisheries Centre Research Reports 2012 Volume 20 Number 2 ISSN 1198-6727 Fisheries Centre Research Reports 2012 Volume 20 Number 2 FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES: ECOSYSTEM MODELS OF HUDSON BAY, KALOKO- HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I, AND THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Canada FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES: ECOSYSTEM MODELS OF HUDSON BAY, KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I, AND THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA Edited by Colette C. C. Wabnitz and Carie Hoover Fisheries Centre Research Reports 20(2) 182 pages © published 2012 by The Fisheries Centre, AERL University of British Columbia 2202 Main Mall Vancouver, B.C., Canada, V6T 1Z4 ISSN 1198-6727 Fisheries Centre Research Reports 20(2) 2012 FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES: ECOSYSTEM MODELS OF HUDSON BAY, KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I, AND THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA Edited by Colette C. C. Wabnitz and Carie Hoover CONTENTS AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL OF HUDSON BAY, CANADA WITH CHANGES FROM 1970-2009 ........................................... 2 ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................. 2 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS .................................................................................................................... 3 ECOSYSTEM OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................. 3 MODEL EQUATIONS .................................................................................................................. 4 MODEL PARAMETERS BY FUNCTIONAL GROUP ........................................................................... 5 ECOSIM PARAMETERS ............................................................................................................. 26 FITTING THE MODEL TO DATA ................................................................................................ 30 RESULTS .............................................................................................................................................. 33 BALANCING THE MODEL ......................................................................................................... 33 MONTE CARLO RESULTS ......................................................................................................... 35 FITTING RESULTS ................................................................................................................... 36 DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................................................... 39 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 40 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................................... 41 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................ 42 APPENDIX 1 : MARINE MAMMAL MORTALITY CALCULATIONS ................................................................ 49 APPENDIX 2 : BIRD SPECIES FOUND WITHIN THE HUDSON BAY MODEL AREA ......................................... 50 APPENDIX 3: FISH FUNCTIONAL GROUPS AND SPECIES INCLUDED IN EACH GROUP ................................. 54 APPENDIX 4: VULNERABILITIES USED TO FIT THE MODEL ...................................................................... 55 APPENDIX 5: MIXED TROPHIC IMPACT RESULTS .................................................................................... 58 APPENDIX 6: COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION (CV) VALUES USED FOR MONTE CARLO ROUTINE .................. 63 APPENDIX 7: MONTE CARLO RESULTS FOR ESTIMATES OF BIOMASS ........................................................ 64 APPENDIX 8: ECOSIM OUTPUT BIOMASS TRENDS ................................................................................... 67 BASELINE TROPHIC RELATIONSHIPS IN KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU, HAWAI‘I ............................................................. 69 ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................ 69 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 69 MATERIALS AND METHODS ................................................................................................................... 71 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................ 71 MODELING APPROACH ............................................................................................................ 72 MODEL PARAMETERS AND FUNCTIONAL GROUPS .................................................................... 73 RESULTS .............................................................................................................................................. 86 DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................................................... 89 DESCRIPTION OF THE KALOKO-HONOKŌHAU SYSTEM .............................................................. 89 TURTLES AT CARRYING CAPACITY ............................................................................................ 91 POTENTIAL THREATS DUE TO URBAN DEVELOPMENT .............................................................. 92 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................................... 94 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................ 95 APPENDIX 1: SPECIES INCLUDED UNDER EACH REEF FISH FUNCTIONAL GROUP ..................................... 106 THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA MARINE ECOSYSTEM MODEL AND SIMULATIONS: 1978-PRESENT ......................... 108 ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................................... 108 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 108 METHODS .......................................................................................................................................... 110 MODEL EQUATIONS ............................................................................................................... 110 SPECIES GROUPS .................................................................................................................... 111 ECOSIM INPUT ...................................................................................................................... 137 RESULTS ............................................................................................................................................ 144 MODEL BALANCING ............................................................................................................... 144 FITTING THE MODEL ............................................................................................................. 146 DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................................................... 153 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................................ 155 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 156 APPENDIX 1 : VULNERABILITIES USED FOR THE FITTED MODEL .......................................................... 166 APPENDIX 2: MIXED TROPHIC IMPACTS .............................................................................................. 169 APPENDIX 3: CV VALUES USED FOR THE MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS ...................................................... 174 APPENDIX 4: MONTE CARLO RESULTS ................................................................................................. 175 APPENDIX 5: MONTE CARLO RESULTS FOR BIOMASS ........................................................................... 177 APPENDIX 6: FITTED MODEL COMPARISONS ...................................................................................... 180 A Research Report from the Fisheries Centre at UBC 182 pages © Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, 2012 FISHERIES CENTRE RESEARCH REPORTS ARE ABSTRACTED IN THE FAO AQUATIC SCIENCES AND FISHERIES ABSTRACTS (ASFA) ISSN 1198-6727 From the Tropics to the Poles, Wabnitz and Hoover DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD This report summarizes the existing knowledge on three ecosystems: Hudson Bay, Canada, Kaloko- Honokōhau, Hawai‘i, and the Antarctic Peninsula, Antarctica. Through the construction of ecosystem models representing these three regions, research from numerous aspects of each ecosystem are pieced together to present a holistic story. While we live in a rapidly changing world, it is important to remember there are many regions