DRY BULK WEEKLY WEEK 25 | Monday, 28 June 2021

Weeks Count of Ships Sold Count of Vessel Units LATEST COMMODITY NEWS  Week S&P Transactions Demolition Sales Newbuilding Orders 25 16 Iron Ore 24 28 1 5 AUSTRALIA'S DARWIN PORT SHIPS ITS 23 15 6 SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE SINCE 2015. VALE MAY EXPORTS UP 15% Y-O-Y 22 32 1 Total 91 1 12 Coal

CHINA EXPECTS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH Top 5 Destination Countries of Ships in Ballast by Vessel Size TO EASE IN JULY AS INDIA'S COAL (Week 26 Arrivals) IMPORTS UP 30% M-O-M IN MAY Size Group Capesize Handysize Panamax Supramax Grains

EU SOFT WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST REVISED DOWNWARDS

UKRAINE EXPORTS 22.3 MILLION TONNES OF CORN, TOTAL GRAIN EXPORTS DOWN 22%

US SOYBEAN PLANTING 97% COMPLETE AS SOYBEAN OIL FUTURES REMAIN VOLATILE

CONTENTS 6M TC Hire Rate Average Size CAPESIZE PANAMAX Bulkcarrier Freight Market 40K Sale & Purchase Market

Demolition Market

Shipbuilding Market 30K

Port Activity and Bunkers

Vessel Tracking 20K Commodities Markets

Weekly Commodity Updates

Broker's Meeting Point - Available Cargoes 10K Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 / Sale & Purchase Market

Latest Transactions Week Ships Sold Built DWT Reported Country/ Region Owner Notes Price (US$) of Buyer  25 CAPE LEGACY 2011 180,161 $27,000,000 FLEET MANAGEMENT EUROPE 25 LOWLANDS TENACITY 2011 179,929 $28,000,000 Greeks COBELFRET GROUP 25 KING SAIL 2002 177,643 $12,000,000 China JIN FAN INTERNATIONAL COMPANY LIMITED 25 OCEAN CLARION 2009 177,000 $23,000,000 Greece NYK LINE 25 NANAKURA 2003 91,439 $12,000,000 NYK LINE 25 AMBER CHAMPION 2013 63,800 $20,000,000 Greece GOLDWIN SHIPPING 25 VIALLI 2015 63,500 $22,000,000 25 WHITE HAWK 2012 61,360 $21,000,000 Greece TRITON NAVIGATION 25 STAR PATHFINDER 2015 61,298 $23,000,000 Norway G2 OCEAN 25 INTERLINK ACUITY 2011 37,152 $13,000,000 Greece MID ATLANTIC BULK CARRIERS 25 WESTERN AIDA 2012 37,000 $12,500,000 Germany WESTLAKE 25 HAMBURG PEARL 2011 35,921 $14,000,000 SMT SHIPPING 25 HOUSTON PEARL 2011 35,914 $14,000,000 SMT SHIPPING 25 JIA TAI 2011 35,112 $9,000,000 Europe HUAYANG HONG KONG SHIPPING 25 MALEN 2011 34,600 $12,000,000 25 ORIENT ADVENTURE 2011 33,755 $10,000,000 Greece NORDEN

Buying appetite has fell back down to only 16 deals closed Reported Ship Sales by Age and Size (Week 24) the past week. Most of the interest was focused on the smaller Handysize and Ultramax segments, however there Age Group 10-15 years 15-20 years 5-10 years was some activity for Capesize and Post Panamax ships. s

The small-class vessels sold were a total of 11 with 7 p i

Handysize and 4 Ultramax, while there were 4 sales h

S 5

recorded for Capesize vessels and 1 Post Panamax ship. As f o

to the age range, the most demanded was again 5-10 years t n

old with 11 transactions. However, the Post Panamax u o

NANAKURA and the Capesize KING SAIL were both C built 15-20 years ago. 0 Interest on small-class vessels continues while the recent Handysize Ultramax Post Panamax Capesize jump in Capesize rates brought back attention to the second-hand ships in this segment. However, the activity in Weekly Volume of Sales Annual Volume of Sales the S&P market weakened after Week 24 when almost Size 23 24 25 Total Size Group 2019 2020 2021 double the transactions were reported.  Handysize 1 8 7 16 Handysize 119 128 108 Sale of the week: The Hong Kong based Jin Fan Ultramax 1 7 4 12 Supramax 125 125 109 Panamax 4 6 10 Panamax 86 56 54 International Company Limited sold the 2002-built KING Supramax 4 3 7 Kamsarmax 35 52 56 SAIL to Chinese buyers for US$12 M. KING SAIL is a Capesize 1 1 4 6 Ultramax 44 46 58 capesize vessel sailing under the flag of Panama. Built by Kamsarmax 3 1 4 Capesize 25 53 45 Japanese Mitsui E&S Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., the vessel has Post Panamax 1 1 2 Handymax 26 12 5 Handymax 1 1 Post Panamax 15 9 15 a carrying capacity of 177,643 DWT. Her length overall Total 14 28 16 58 VLBC 8 19 7 (LOA) is 289 meters, and her width is 45 meters. Total 482 500 456 / Demolition Market

Latest Transactions Week Vessel Vessel Age Location of Delivery USD / LDT LDT (MT) Sale Price 

Demolition Prices for Bulkcarriers- Week Activities in the demolition market in the past week were rather slow, with no deal Average (USD/LDT) for bulkcarriers reported. This is however expected as the monsoon season brings with it a lull in shipbreaking activities in the beaches of South Asian subcontinent. Market PLVw LVw CVw WoW%w Market Wk 23 Wk 24 Wk 25 WoW% The subcontinent is still grappling with the new wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Whilst India is on a recovery part, Bangladesh is tightening restrictions Bangladesh 560 565 566 0.2% which has been in place since May for another 7 days. This restriction would limit operations of shipbreakers as workers return to their villages in droves. Pakistan India 515 523 526 0.6% has seen better days nonetheless a weaking Rupee has severed limited the participation of Gaddani shipbreakers in the past week. Pakistan 554 560 568 1.4% LDT rates have hit new heights in the past week Pakistan rates were up 1.4% to Turkey 280 280 280 0.0% USD568/LDT pulling ahead of fierce competition from Bangladesh where rates were USD566/LDT up 0.2% from the previous week. Pakistan prices have gained momentum as scrap remains highly sought after by steel mills. Chittagong cash buyers are however expected to be active in the coming weeks with a flurry of inquiries arising originating from them. LDT rates in India remains elevated at USD526/LDT an increase of 0.6% with scarp demand still in recovery mode. Demolition Activity in the Last 3 Months

Demolition Age (years) of Vessels in 2021(%) 60K 23 24 26 29 )

T 40K M

( 14%

3-month Average T

D 21% 25 L Over 30 7% 7% 20K 21 Le… 10% 27 3% 28 0K May 2021 Jun 2021 21% 10% 3% 3%

Location of Delivery - No. Vessels 2021 Demolition Prices (US$/LDT) Other 2 600 3 Year HIgh )

Pakistan T

D 500 Market

4 L /

D Bangladesh S U ( 400 India e u l

a Pakistan V Bangladesh 300 19 2018 2019 2020 2021 / Shipbuilding Market

Latest Orders Week Size Units Delivery Buyer Shipbuilder 

Newbuilding Market Price by Size (Week 25) Year Average of HP Average of UP Average of PP Average of KP Average of CP  Year Handysize Ultramax Panamax Kamsarmax Capesize 2021 $26,000,000 $28,000,000 $29,000,000 $32,000,000 $57,000,000 2020 $24,000,000 $28,000,000 $29,000,000 $30,000,000 $48,000,000 2019 $26,000,000 $31,000,000 $32,000,000 $33,000,000 $51,000,000

Delivery Year by Size Units Ordered by Year and Size Group Size Group 2021/2022 2022 2022/2023 2023 2024 Total 300 Size Group  Kamsarmax 35 15 31 81 3-year Average Capesize Handysize 9 44 5 3 1 62 Handymax VLBC 23 2 30 55 200 Handysize

Ultramax 3 42 9 54 Kamsarmax Supramax 12 7 19 Panamax Capesize 4 14 18 100 Handymax 4 3 1 8 Post Panamax Post Panamax 3 4 7 Supramax Panamax 4 4 Ultramax Total 16 170 22 99 1 308 0 2018 2020 VLBC

Orders by Country of Buyer - 2021 While there have been no newbuild deals reported this week, China’s ship yards have maxed out capacity with majority fully engaged till 2023. Ship building yards in the country have seen capacity reduce as China the Chinese government have repurposed them for building of the Japan country’s naval fleet. UK Size Group Capesize Shipowners would therefore have to look further out in the far east to Singapore book slots for newbuilds. Japan is waiting in the wings with a couple Greece Handymax of drybulk carriers already ordered from Japan in recent weeks. Handysize Additionally with Japanese government's finacial aid backing to the S. Korea country's stircken shipbuilders, the perfect timing for Japan's Bangladesh Kamsarmax shipyards to become major players in the shipbuilding could be here once again. Indonesia Panamax Spain Supramax Meanwhile the IMO decarbonisation goal has come under scrutiny as Taiwan the delivery of the gas powered Fure Viten which achieved an EEDI Ultramax score of 4.65 meeting the targets 28 years early put pressure on policy Turkey VLBC makers to bring forward the IMO 2050 targets. Despite the latest win Hong Kong for decarbonisation of shipping, question however remains over investment on the infrastructure need to support shipping’s transition 0 20 40 to sustainable fuels.

Units / Weekly Commodity Update

IRON ORE

AUSTRALIA'S DARWIN PORT SHIPS ITS SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE SINCE 2015. VALE MAY EXPORTS UP 15% Y-O-Y

A shipment of Iron ore would leave Australia’s Northern Territory Port of Darwin this week as Miners across the country push to take advantage of high iron ore prices. Australian mining firm NT Bullion plans to ship around 30,000t of lump from Darwin this week. It owns the 2mn-3mn t/yr Frances Creek mine in the NT and while mining has restarted, most of this shipment is from stocks left from the last operator of the mine. Frances Creek closed in 2015 when iron ore prices fell below $50/t cfr China, causing its owner trading firm Noble to write off $93mn in operating losses.

This will be the first shipment of iron ore from Darwin since 2015, although the port does regularly ship iron and steel scrap to destinations including India and Taiwan. Darwin's shipments of iron ore peaked at around 2mn t in the year to 30 June 2014 before weak prices closed all the iron ore mines in the NT. High iron ore prices have led to a rush of investment into the NT, with Vietnamese steel producer Hoa Phat acquiring the Roper Valley iron ore project this month.

The ICX has been above $100/t since for more than a year, prompting several small and medium enterprises to push forward with new mining operations or with reopening those shut during lower price environments. Over 6mn t/yr of iron ore mining capacity has come on stream in Australia over the past year, with more planned for this year and over 110mn t/yr in the pipeline, driven by record high iron ore prices. Australian mining firms are also moving forward with iron ore development plans outside of Australia, including at Akora's 62.8pc Fe Bekisopa fines project in Madagascar. Sundance Resources is also trying to regain control of the Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore project in Congo and Cameroon through the International Chamber of Commerce.

Argus assessed the ICX iron ore price at $212.75/dmt cfr Qingdao on a 62pc Fe basis yesterday, up from $183.15/dmt on 1 June but down from a high of $235.55/dmt on 12 May. The latest price is 25-30pc higher compared with $167.45/t on 1 April and $159.90/t on 31 December last year

In other news, Vale one of the World major Iron ore miners has been reported to have shipped 22.3million mt in May according to Brazil’s National Union of the Industry of Extraction of Iron and Base Metals (Sinferbase). This is an increase of 13% from April and 15% from same time in 2020. This is as the firm continues to ramp up its production as it recovers from the Itaricio dam fallings and other operational setbacks.

The report shows the Brazillian miner hit 101.76 million tons of exports up 13% from 2020 between January-May. Meanwhile, in May this year Vale’s iron ore sales in its domestic market amounted to 1.08 million mt, increasing by 23.2 percent year on year and down by 29.4 percent month on month. In the first five months of the year, Vale’s iron ore sales in its domestic market totalled 6.96 million mt, increasing by 14.2 percent as compared with the same period last year.

Sources: Argus Media, Steel orbis.

@Dnfsmanalysis www.linkedin.com/company/dnfsmanalysis [email protected] www.dnfanalysis.com / Weekly Commodity Update

COAL

CHINA EXPECTS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH TO EASE IN JULY AS INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS UP 30% M-O-M IN MAY

China’s state planner said that it expects a coal supply crunch to ease and coal prices to fall in July, according to a report from the official Xinhua news agency on Sunday. “With the growth of hydropower and solar power generation in the summer, as well as the increase in coal production and imports, the contradiction between coal supply and demand will tend to ease,” said the National Development and Reform Commission, according to the report. “It is expected that coal prices will enter a downward channel in July, and prices will drop significantly.” China’s state planner and market regulator earlier in June jointly launched an investigation into coal prices, saying they would crack down on speculation and hoarding.

China also plans to release more thermal coal from its reserve to ensure market supply ahead of summer peak demand, although the amount was not disclosed, according to the report. The state planner has said it plans to build up around 100 million tons of deployable coal reserves in the country in 2021.

In the meantime, India's coal import rose 30.3 percent to 22.27 million tonnes in April amid supply concerns and demand for pre- monsoon restocking of dry fuel. The country had imported 17.09 million tonnes of coal in April last year, according to a provisional compilation by mjunction services, based on monitoring of vessels' positions and data received from shipping companies. "India's coal and coke imports in April 2021 through the major and non-major ports are estimated to have increased by 30.3 per cent over April 2020... Imports in April 2021 stood at around 22.27 million tonnes (MT) as against 17.09 MT imported in April 2020," it said. "The demand for pre-monsoon restocking and supply concerns led to a surge in coal import during the month under review. Recently, tightened supply in overseas markets have firmed up prices. This factor coupled with the onset of monsoon is expected to keep the volumes in check in the near term," Vinaya Varma, MD & CEO, mjunction services Ltd, said.

Mjunction -- a joint venture between Tata Steel and SAIL -- is a B2B e-commerce company and publishes research reports on coal and steel verticals. Of the total imports in April, the volume of non-coking coal was 15.32 MT, against 12.28 MT imported in April last financial year. Coking coal volume was 4.74 MT, up against 3.23 MT imported in April last fiscal. During the 2020-21, total coal and coke imports stood at 215.92 MT, about 12.6 per cent lower than 247.10 MT imported during FY'20.

Source: Reuters, Business-Standard

@Dnfsmanalysis www.linkedin.com/company/dnfsmanalysis [email protected] www.dnfanalysis.com / Weekly Commodity Update

GRAINS

EU SOFT WHEAT PRODUCTIONS FORECAST REVISED DOWNWARDS

The European Commission on June 24 revised down its soft wheat production forecast for the European Union in marketing year 2021-22, to 125.8 million tonnes compared with last month’s projection of 126.2 million. If realized, the output would still be 7% higher than last year’s drought-affected total of 117.2 million tonnes.

The Commission pegs soft wheat exports from the EU’s 27 member countries at 30 million tonnes in 2021-22, compared to this year’s projected total of 27 million tonnes. The current marketing year ends on June 30. Meanwhile, imports for the coming marketing year are forecast at 2.7 million tonnes, and the Commission projects ending stocks of 10.1 million tonnes, down from last month’s 10.8 million but higher than the 8.8 million tonnes expected to be in reserve at the end of 2020-21. The Commission also made projections for 2021-22 production in barley, down 1 million tonnes from last month’s forecast to 53.5 million tonnes; corn, 70.6 million tonnes, down 400,000 from its May projection; and rapeseed, 16.7 million

Source: World Grain

UKRAINE EXPORTS 22.3 MILLION TONNES OF CORN, TOAL GRAIN EXPORTS DOWN 22%

With the 2020-21 marketing year coming to a close, Ukraine’s grain exports had declined by 22% compared to the previous year, to 43.4 million tonnes, according to the country’s agriculture ministry data reported by Reuters. Included in that total is 16.3 million tonnes of wheat, 22.3 million tonnes of corn and almost 4.15 million tonnes of barley.

Total grain production for the 2020-21 season, which ends June 30, is 65 million tonnes, with a final export total projected at 45.8 million tonnes, according to the agriculture ministry. One of the world’s leading wheat exporters, Ukraine exported 20.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2019-20, but a severe drought has led to a decline in this year’s crop. Planting for the 2021-22 season is complete and the ag ministry said Ukraine’s production could rise to at least 75 million tonnes due to favourable weather.

Source: World Grain

US SOYBEAN PLANTING 97% COMPLETE AS SOYBEAN OIL FUTURES REMAIN VOLATILE

US soybean oil futures recovered after falling earlier in the week, while premiums for crude degummed soybean oil against the futures basis were mixed. The July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil contract on 23 June settled higher at 62.13¢/lb, amid hot and dry weather concerns. The July contract settled down by the 3.5¢/lb trade limit on 16 June and by the extended 5.5¢/lb trade limit on 17 June, following a record-high set on 8 June at 72.08¢/lb. After the 5.5¢/lb decrease, soybean oil futures reversed course and settled higher for the rest of the week. Activity this morning was showing downward movement in the futures basis, due to heavy rains and cooler temperatures in the forecast. .

US soybean planting progress was at 97pc complete as of 20 June, up from 94pc from the previous week, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is above the five-year average for this time of 94pc complete. Growers in Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin reached 100pc planting progress this week, joining Minnesota and Nebraska who reached it previously. Soybean emergence was at 91pc as of 20 June, up from the 85pc five-year average for this time. As of 20 June, 5pc of planted soybeans were blooming, which is in line with the five-year average. The soybean crop conditions were little changed from the week ending 13 June.

Source: Argus Media

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