Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway
High Speed Line Dombås – Ålesund (with High Speed Line Oslo – Trondheim)
DB International GmbH Ottmar Grein
Ålesund, 09.02.2011 Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway
General statement
High Speed Rail is a feasible option for Norway.
The implementation of a new high capacity railway lines which allow the operation of high speed passenger trains as well as heavy freight trains will lead to an essential improvement of quality and reliability for the entire transportation sector.
The expected revenues of the new lines will cover the entire cost of operation and maintenance and a reasonable part of the capital cost for infrastructure and trains.
1 Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway
Objectives of a new transportation system:
• creation of rapid and cost-effective travel and transport solutions for people and industries • support the national and regional development in Norway • greatly improve the reliability of passenger and freight traffic • significantly reduction of environmental pollution and traffic accidents • use the public funds for high economic benefits
Way to the target
These goals are achievable with a high-quality and high-capacity rail network and competitive offerings for passenger and freight.
2 Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway
Basic Concept
• Double track lines • High speed passenger trains • Passenger and freight trains • Many intermediate stops • Use of existing stations • Lines in low altitude • New lines instead of upgrade • Large substitution of existing tracks
3 Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway
Main Corridors
• Oslo – Trondheim • Oslo – Bergen / Haugesund / Stavanger south of Hardangervidda national park • Bergen – Stavanger • Oslo – Kristiansand – Stavanger via Tønsberg or Notodden • Oslo – Halden (– Gøteborg)
New Investigations • Trondheim – Steinkjer • Dombås – Ålesund • …
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Evaluation of the Dombås – Ålesund Corridor
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Routing
193 km new line
6 Stations
Precondition: Realization of High Speed Line Oslo - Trondheim
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Alignment
Example for very detailed alignment work
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Civil Structures Civil Structures 80
70 68.4 Total length: 193 km thereof 60 55.9 53.8
50 Embankments, cuts or 46.8 46.2 39.2 40 37.0
surface level: 91 km lineof % Tunnels: 89 km 30 27.4 Bridges: 13 km 20 9.2 10 6.9 4.9 4.2
0 Dombås-Ålesund Gardermoen-Trondheim Köln-Rhein/Main Hannover-Würzburg
Open line Tunnel Bridges
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Costs
Total cost for
Infrastructure and planning 30.2 Bil. NOK Surcharge for uncertainties 10 % Total 33.2 Bil. NOK
Rolling stock 2.9 Bil. NOK Surcharge for uncertainties 10 % Total 3.2 Bil. NOK
Costs
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Costs
The corresponding costs per Line-km have been calculated to 172.0 Million NOK.
Costs for New High Speed Lines Costs per Line Km 140 128.0 250 215.8 120 200 178.5 100 172.0 80.6 80 150
60 100 Billion NOK Billion 40 33.2 Million NOK 50 20 0 0 Dombås-Ålesund Gardermoen-Trondheim Oslo-Bergen/Stavanger Dombås-Ålesund Gardermoen-Trondheim Oslo-Bergen/Stavanger
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Operation
Ålesund – Oslo * 12 trains per day and direction Thereof 6 trains with 5 intermediate stops 6 trains with 9 intermediate stops
Ålesund – Trondheim * 6 trains per day and direction 8 intermediate stops
Ålesund – Oslo trains and Ålesund – Trondheim trains will enhance service quality for the Oslo – Trondheim corridor. * Preliminary stopping patterns may change with further investigations.
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Operation - Train Running Times From Ålesund
3
Oslo 02:33 h 2.5 Gardermoen 02:10 h 2
Hamar 01:47 h 1.5 Hours Dombås 00:59 h 1 Trondheim 02:12 h 0.5
0
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Operation - Train Running Times in the Dombås - Ålesund Corridor [min]
Dombås Bjorli Valldal Vestnes Skodje Moa Ålesund Dombås - 16 31 45 56 65 72 Bjorli - 14 28 38 47 55 Valldal - 13 24 33 40 “Regional” Trains* Vestnes - 9 18 25 Skodje - 8 15 Moa - 5 Ålesund -
Dombås Vestnes Moa Alesund Dombås - 35 51 59 “Express” Trains* Vestnes - 14 21 Moa - 5 Alesund -
* Preliminary stopping patterns may change with further investigations.
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Operation and Maintenance Costs
Costs per year for
Infrastructure 111 Mil. NOK Passenger transport 234 Mil. NOK Freight transport 153 Mil. NOK
Total 498 Mil. NOK
Number of staff 450 P
Costs
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Flights per Day (2011) Passenger Forecast 35 32 31 Today's high passenger volumes in the air 30 sector indicate 25 • high mobility of the Norwegian population and 20 15 • missing alternatives especially 15 concerning rail transport 10
Compared with air transport rail and road 5 show long travel times. 0
This gives an excellent chance for a new, fast, high frequent, and reliable railway system.
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Passenger Forecast Air Trips per Inhabitant 2003 2,5 Norway shows by far the most air trips per inhabitant. 2,0 This again indicates the unsatisfying conditions of the competing modes. 1,5
Attributes of today’s transport: 1,0
• Long journey times caused by low 0,5 average speed and high deviation factors 0,0 • Low service frequency • Influence of winter conditions
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Door to Door Travel Times Passenger Forecast Norway Comparison of Modes 9 To reach competitive travel times 8 concerning the air traffic, it is essential to 7 implement train speeds of 270 – 300 km/h 6 in most parts of the lines. 5
4
This is in no case achievable by upgrading 3
the existing mostly single track lines. 2
Door to Door Travel Times (h) Times Travel Doorto Door 1 Further on upgrading would lead to huge 0 disturbances of the ongoing rail traffic and 0 200 400 600 800 hence produce additions cost. Distance (km) Rail Vmax 300 km/h Rail Vmax 250 km/h Road Vav 60 km/h Road Vav 70 km/h Air
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Passenger Forecast Door to Door Travel Times 2025 10:00 9:00 New high speed lines will provide 8:00 huge time savings especially 7:00 compared to road traffic. 6:00 5:00 4:00 Road
Travel Time (h) Time Travel Rail 3:00 Air 2:00 HSR 1:00 0:00
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Passenger Forecast
HSR Transportation Performance by Mode of Origin HSR passenger-km 2025 2025 - Planning Case Mode of origin:
New Car Existing Rail 6 Mil. Pkm 28% 40% Air 202 Mil. Pkm Car 275 Mil. Pkm Rail Bus 6 Mil. Pkm Air 1% 30% New 195 Mil. Pkm
Bus Total 684 Mil. Pkm 1%
Growth factor 2025-2055: 0.52 % – 0.27 % (population growth) 19 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund
Freight Traffic
New double track lines have sufficient capacity for passenger and freight trains.
Further on they allow essentially shorter transport times and therefore a better competitiveness against road traffic.
Due to the moderate (12.5 o/oo) gradients, trains can run with almost the double load.
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Freight Traffic
Freight trains will be mostly operated during night time when passenger operation is shut down.
Freight trains during day time will be operated at 160 km/h. These fast and light trains can be integrated in the passenger train schedule without problems.
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Freight Traffic - Forecast
Total 2025: 1.15 Billion tkm
Growth factor 2025-2055: 2.3 % – 2.1 % (gross national product + population growth)
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Freight Traffic - Forecast Freight Traffic Møre og Romsdal - Osloregion 3000
2407.9 2500 2314.5 2194.0
2000 1805.9 1640.0 1500 1424.6 1390.7
1000 t 1000 1172.6
1000 923.8 767.9
500 388.1 252.0
0 2008 2025 without HSL 2025 with Oslo- 2025 with Oslo- Trondheim HSL Trondheim and Ålesund-Dombås HSL
Rail Road Total
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Operation Cost and Revenues
Revenues in 2025
Passenger transport: 1026 Mil. NOK With 1.50 NOK/P-km Ålesund – Oslo 768 NOK Ålesund – Trondheim 560 NOK
Freight transport: 936 Mil. NOK With 0.81 NOK/t-km
Cost for operation and maintenance per year: 498 Mil. NOK
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Environment and Socio-Economic Evaluation
Caused by change of modal split:
Avoidance of CO2 167 000 Tonnes/a
Cost of avoided accidents 281 Mil. NOK/a
Cost of time savings 738 Mil. NOK/a
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Cost / Benefit Analyses
Financially assessed Criteria Not quantified Criteria • Travel Costs • Travel Comfort • Travel Time • Noise, Landscape, Flora and Fauna • Emissions • Economic Development • Accident Costs • Construction related Costs • Induced Traffic • Avoided Costs of existing railway operation • Availability Fees • Avoided Train Operator Profit • Concession Fees • Resettlement, Barriers, Accessibility
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Socio-Economic Results - Benefits
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Financial Results
• Revenues from passenger and freight operation will exceed Operation and Maintenance costs • Return of equity 1.8 % (financing by state, 30 years concession for operator)
Socio-Economic Results
• Economic benefits of 66.5 Bil. NOK (NPV 2025) • Economic costs of 52.5 Bil. NOK (NPV 2025) • Benefit/Cost ratio: 1.27
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Summary
• The Dombås – Ålesund High Speed Line will produce a positive economic result. • Revenues will exceed Operation and Maintenance costs. In case of financing by the state, 1.8 % return of equity can be expected. • Construction of the Dombås – Ålesund HSL is depending on the realization of the Oslo – Trondheim HSL but will enhance service on both lines. • The Dombås – Ålesund HSL will cause significant modal split shifts from air and road to rail with all connected economic benefits. • The new railway line will provide cost-effective transport solutions to improve the economic quality and competitiveness of the connected regions.
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Thank you
Dipl.-Ing. Ottmar Grein
DB International GmbH Oskar-Sommer-Str. 15 60596 Frankfurt / M. / Germany Tel: +49 69 6319 – 248 Fax: +49 69 6319 – 139 Mobile +49 160 904 38 760 mailto: [email protected] http://www.db-international.de
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