Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway High Speed Line Dombås – Ålesund (with High Speed Line Oslo – Trondheim) DB International GmbH Ottmar Grein Ålesund, 09.02.2011 Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway General statement High Speed Rail is a feasible option for Norway. The implementation of a new high capacity railway lines which allow the operation of high speed passenger trains as well as heavy freight trains will lead to an essential improvement of quality and reliability for the entire transportation sector. The expected revenues of the new lines will cover the entire cost of operation and maintenance and a reasonable part of the capital cost for infrastructure and trains. 1 Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway Objectives of a new transportation system: • creation of rapid and cost-effective travel and transport solutions for people and industries • support the national and regional development in Norway • greatly improve the reliability of passenger and freight traffic • significantly reduction of environmental pollution and traffic accidents • use the public funds for high economic benefits Way to the target These goals are achievable with a high-quality and high-capacity rail network and competitive offerings for passenger and freight. 2 Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway Basic Concept • Double track lines • High speed passenger trains • Passenger and freight trains • Many intermediate stops • Use of existing stations • Lines in low altitude • New lines instead of upgrade • Large substitution of existing tracks 3 Concept for Railway and Transportation in Southern Norway Main Corridors • Oslo – Trondheim • Oslo – Bergen / Haugesund / Stavanger south of Hardangervidda national park • Bergen – Stavanger • Oslo – Kristiansand – Stavanger via Tønsberg or Notodden • Oslo – Halden (– Gøteborg) New Investigations • Trondheim – Steinkjer • Dombås – Ålesund • … 4 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Evaluation of the Dombås – Ålesund Corridor 5 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Routing 193 km new line 6 Stations Precondition: Realization of High Speed Line Oslo - Trondheim 6 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Alignment Example for very detailed alignment work 7 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Civil Structures Civil Structures 80 70 68.4 Total length: 193 km thereof 60 55.9 53.8 50 Embankments, cuts or 46.8 46.2 39.2 40 37.0 surface level: 91 km lineof % Tunnels: 89 km 30 27.4 Bridges: 13 km 20 9.2 10 6.9 4.9 4.2 0 Dombås-Ålesund Gardermoen-Trondheim Köln-Rhein/Main Hannover-Würzburg Open line Tunnel Bridges 8 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Costs Total cost for Infrastructure and planning 30.2 Bil. NOK Surcharge for uncertainties 10 % Total 33.2 Bil. NOK Rolling stock 2.9 Bil. NOK Surcharge for uncertainties 10 % Total 3.2 Bil. NOK Costs 9 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Costs The corresponding costs per Line-km have been calculated to 172.0 Million NOK. Costs for New High Speed Lines Costs per Line Km 140 128.0 250 215.8 120 200 178.5 100 172.0 80.6 80 150 60 100 Billion NOK Billion 40 33.2 Million NOK 50 20 0 0 Dombås-Ålesund Gardermoen-Trondheim Oslo-Bergen/Stavanger Dombås-Ålesund Gardermoen-Trondheim Oslo-Bergen/Stavanger 10 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Operation Ålesund – Oslo * 12 trains per day and direction Thereof 6 trains with 5 intermediate stops 6 trains with 9 intermediate stops Ålesund – Trondheim * 6 trains per day and direction 8 intermediate stops Ålesund – Oslo trains and Ålesund – Trondheim trains will enhance service quality for the Oslo – Trondheim corridor. * Preliminary stopping patterns may change with further investigations. 11 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Operation - Train Running Times From Ålesund 3 Oslo 02:33 h 2.5 Gardermoen 02:10 h 2 Hamar 01:47 h 1.5 Hours Dombås 00:59 h 1 Trondheim 02:12 h 0.5 0 12 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Operation - Train Running Times in the Dombås - Ålesund Corridor [min] Dombås Bjorli Valldal Vestnes Skodje Moa Ålesund Dombås - 16 31 45 56 65 72 Bjorli - 14 28 38 47 55 Valldal - 13 24 33 40 “Regional” Trains* Vestnes - 9 18 25 Skodje - 8 15 Moa - 5 Ålesund - Dombås Vestnes Moa Alesund Dombås - 35 51 59 “Express” Trains* Vestnes - 14 21 Moa - 5 Alesund - * Preliminary stopping patterns may change with further investigations. 13 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Operation and Maintenance Costs Costs per year for Infrastructure 111 Mil. NOK Passenger transport 234 Mil. NOK Freight transport 153 Mil. NOK Total 498 Mil. NOK Number of staff 450 P Costs 14 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Flights per Day (2011) Passenger Forecast 35 32 31 Today's high passenger volumes in the air 30 sector indicate 25 • high mobility of the Norwegian population and 20 15 • missing alternatives especially 15 concerning rail transport 10 Compared with air transport rail and road 5 show long travel times. 0 This gives an excellent chance for a new, fast, high frequent, and reliable railway system. 15 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Passenger Forecast Air Trips per Inhabitant 2003 2,5 Norway shows by far the most air trips per inhabitant. 2,0 This again indicates the unsatisfying conditions of the competing modes. 1,5 Attributes of today’s transport: 1,0 • Long journey times caused by low 0,5 average speed and high deviation factors 0,0 • Low service frequency • Influence of winter conditions 16 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Door to Door Travel Times Passenger Forecast Norway Comparison of Modes 9 To reach competitive travel times 8 concerning the air traffic, it is essential to 7 implement train speeds of 270 – 300 km/h 6 in most parts of the lines. 5 4 This is in no case achievable by upgrading 3 the existing mostly single track lines. 2 Door to Door Travel Times (h) Times Travel Doorto Door 1 Further on upgrading would lead to huge 0 disturbances of the ongoing rail traffic and 0 200 400 600 800 hence produce additions cost. Distance (km) Rail Vmax 300 km/h Rail Vmax 250 km/h Road Vav 60 km/h Road Vav 70 km/h Air 17 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Passenger Forecast Door to Door Travel Times 2025 10:00 9:00 New high speed lines will provide 8:00 huge time savings especially 7:00 compared to road traffic. 6:00 5:00 4:00 Road Travel Time (h) Time Travel Rail 3:00 Air 2:00 HSR 1:00 0:00 18 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Passenger Forecast HSR Transportation Performance by Mode of Origin HSR passenger-km 2025 2025 - Planning Case Mode of origin: New Car Existing Rail 6 Mil. Pkm 28% 40% Air 202 Mil. Pkm Car 275 Mil. Pkm Rail Bus 6 Mil. Pkm Air 1% 30% New 195 Mil. Pkm Bus Total 684 Mil. Pkm 1% Growth factor 2025-2055: 0.52 % – 0.27 % (population growth) 19 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Freight Traffic New double track lines have sufficient capacity for passenger and freight trains. Further on they allow essentially shorter transport times and therefore a better competitiveness against road traffic. Due to the moderate (12.5 o/oo) gradients, trains can run with almost the double load. 20 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Freight Traffic Freight trains will be mostly operated during night time when passenger operation is shut down. Freight trains during day time will be operated at 160 km/h. These fast and light trains can be integrated in the passenger train schedule without problems. 21 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Freight Traffic - Forecast Total 2025: 1.15 Billion tkm Growth factor 2025-2055: 2.3 % – 2.1 % (gross national product + population growth) 22 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Freight Traffic - Forecast Freight Traffic Møre og Romsdal - Osloregion 3000 2407.9 2500 2314.5 2194.0 2000 1805.9 1640.0 1500 1424.6 1390.7 1000 t 1000 1172.6 1000 923.8 767.9 500 388.1 252.0 0 2008 2025 without HSL 2025 with Oslo- 2025 with Oslo- Trondheim HSL Trondheim and Ålesund-Dombås HSL Rail Road Total 23 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Operation Cost and Revenues Revenues in 2025 Passenger transport: 1026 Mil. NOK With 1.50 NOK/P-km Ålesund – Oslo 768 NOK Ålesund – Trondheim 560 NOK Freight transport: 936 Mil. NOK With 0.81 NOK/t-km Cost for operation and maintenance per year: 498 Mil. NOK 24 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Environment and Socio-Economic Evaluation Caused by change of modal split: Avoidance of CO2 167 000 Tonnes/a Cost of avoided accidents 281 Mil. NOK/a Cost of time savings 738 Mil. NOK/a 25 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Cost / Benefit Analyses Financially assessed Criteria Not quantified Criteria • Travel Costs • Travel Comfort • Travel Time • Noise, Landscape, Flora and Fauna • Emissions • Economic Development • Accident Costs • Construction related Costs • Induced Traffic • Avoided Costs of existing railway operation • Availability Fees • Avoided Train Operator Profit • Concession Fees • Resettlement, Barriers, Accessibility 26 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Socio-Economic Results - Benefits 27 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Financial Results • Revenues from passenger and freight operation will exceed Operation and Maintenance costs • Return of equity 1.8 % (financing by state, 30 years concession for operator) Socio-Economic Results • Economic benefits of 66.5 Bil. NOK (NPV 2025) • Economic costs of 52.5 Bil. NOK (NPV 2025) • Benefit/Cost ratio: 1.27 28 High Speed Rail Dombås - Ålesund Summary • The Dombås – Ålesund High Speed Line will produce a positive economic result. • Revenues will exceed Operation and Maintenance costs. In case of financing by the state, 1.8 % return of equity can be expected. • Construction of the Dombås – Ålesund HSL is depending on the realization of the Oslo – Trondheim HSL but will enhance service on both lines.