Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Hochprofessionell mit der DB International GmbH - Infrastruktur- und Verkehrssysteme der Zukunft entwickeln
DB International GmbH Ottmar Grein Oslo, 11.05.2012
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 DB International — German Rail Know-How Worldwide
◼ DB is one of the world’s leading passenger and logistics companies. ◼ DB International GmbH as a 100% subsidiary provides technical and commercial expertise in all areas of modern transport since 1966 in more than 2000 projects worldwide.
Moscow Vilnius Utrecht Warsaw Berlin Belgrade Zagreb Bucharest Tbilisi Beijing Algiers Washington Tripoli Amman Doha Abu Dhabi Taipei Jeddah Bangkok
Johannesburg
Offices DB International
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 2 Project Manager DB International
Ottmar Grein Key Competence and Projects ◼ Employer: Deutsche Bahn ◼ Senior Expert for HSR Systems ◼ Experience >30 years ◼ Experience includes transportation planning and ◼ Position: Senior Expert demand forecast for high speed rail and maglev routes, economic feasibility studies, integrated network planning, high-speed rail technologies, railway construction technologies, railway operations.
Education and Experience ◼ Recent Projects
◼ M.S., Studies in Civil Engineering with specialization in – 2010-2011: Program Management for the Tampa- Transportation Engineering and Planning Technical Orlando High Speed link University of Darmstadt, Germany, 1980 – 2009-2011: High–Speed Rail Quebéc–Windsor Feasibility Study ◼ more than 30 years of experience in the rail industry – 2008-2011: High–Speed Rail Feasibility Study, South Norway – 2004-2007: Commissioning Lötschberg Base Tunnel – 1998-2004: Integrationsmanagement Bahnsystems DB AG
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 3 High Speed Rail - Principles
Definition of High Speed
High speed means at least 250 km/h (UIC) But there are various different solutions.
Thresholds
Operating at high speeds requires: - special trains (train sets) - special dedicated lines - in cab signalling
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 4 High Speed Rail - Principles
Understanding High Speed Rail
High Speed Rail is a complex system
▪ Different commercial concepts of high speed (including services to customers, marketing, etc.)
▪ Different types of operation (maximum speed, stops, etc.)
▪ Different ways to operate conventional trains (in particular impact on freight traffic)
▪ Capacity and cost vary in each case
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 5 Japan introduced the first High Speed Service in the World due to its settlement structure
Japan
Basic Conditions of Japanese HS Network
◼ The high speed lines in Japan have a total length of 2,175 km ◼ Shinkansen tracks are strictly separated from the conventional network (Gauge) ◼ Japan introduced the HS Service in 1964 ◼ Speeds up to 300 km/h ◼ Only Passenger Train Service ◼ Alternating stopping patterns
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 6 The French High Speed Network follows a monocentric and separated concept
France
Basic Conditions of French HS Network
◼ The share of high speed lines in the total network is about 6% (1881 km) ◼ Maximum Speeds in France 320 km/h ◼ TGV System is monocentric ◼ High Speed Network is separated from normal network ◼ Only passenger train operation on High Speed Lines
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 7 The German High Speed Network is polycentric and highly integrated into the existing network
Germany Basic Conditions of German HS Network
◼ Focused Investment Strategy on Key Links between major Cities ◼ Mixed Traffic on High Speed Lines to increase Infrastructure Usage ◼ High Speed Network is integrated into the existing network ◼ Design Speed depending on Terrain, Costs and Travel Time Savings
HSN –New Construction 300 km/h Lines HSN –New Construction 250 km/h Lines
HSN –upgrated Lines 200 – 230 km/h
Other Lines bis 160 km/h
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 8 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 9 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Air Transport Air Trips per Inhabitant 2003 2,5 Norway shows by far the most air trips per
inhabitant. 2,0
This indicates the unsatisfying conditions of the competing modes. 1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 10 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Flights per Day (2011) Norwegian Conditions 35 32 31 Today's high passenger volumes in the air 30 sector indicate • high mobility of the Norwegian population 25 and 20 • missing alternatives especially concerning 15 rail transport 15 10 Compared with air transport rail and road show long travel times. 5
This gives an excellent chance for a new, fast, 0 high frequent, and reliable railway system.
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 11 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Norwegian Conditions
Today's rail system shows
• High journey times for long distance trips
• Low frequent long distance services
• Capacity restrictions due to mostly single track lines
• Restrictions for freight traffic due to steep gradients
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 12 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Objectives of a new transportation system:
• creation of rapid and cost-effective travel and transport solutions for people and industries • support the national and regional development in Norway • greatly improve the reliability of passenger and freight traffic • significantly reduction of environmental pollution and traffic accidents • use the public funds for high economic benefits
Way to the target
These goals are achievable with a high-quality and high-capacity rail network and competitive offerings for passenger and freight.
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 13 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Basic Concept (1)
Requirements: Competitive travel times for rail trips compared with air transport and high service reliability
Means: New High Speed lines with speed of 270 – 300 km/h and resulting running times of about two hours for major relations.
Requirements: Competitiveness against road transport
Means: High service frequency of rail system Double track lines
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 14 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Basic Concept (2)
Requirements: Regular service of intermediate stations
Means: High speed and double track lines combined with an alternating stopping pattern allow end to end running times of frequent stopping trains under three hours.
Benefits: A high number of intermediate stations • enhances the attractiveness of the new system as an alternative to car trips, • enables the service of the InterCity network with High Speed trains • provides the opportunity of overtaking of freight trains and hence ensures the flexibility of mixed operation
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 15 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Basic Concept (3)
Requirements: Mixed traffic operation
Means: High speed and double track lines with moderate gradients used by “express” and “regional” High Speed trains as well as freight trains Usage of ballast less track to provide high availability of the infrastructure
Benefits: Higher capacity of freight trains due to smaller gradients and double track lines Dismantling of existing infrastructure with connected cost savings
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 16 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Basic Concept
• Double track lines • High speed passenger trains • Passenger and freight trains • Many intermediate stops • Variable stopping patterns • Frequent service • Use of existing stations • Moderate gradients • New lines instead of upgrade • Large substitution of existing tracks
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 17 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Main Corridors
• Oslo – Trondheim • Oslo – Bergen / Haugesund / Stavanger south of Hardangervidda national park • Bergen – Stavanger • Oslo – Kristiansand – Stavanger via Tønsberg or Notodden • Oslo – Halden (– Gøteborg)
Additional Investigations • Trondheim – Steinkjer • Dombås – Ålesund • Oslo – Gjøvik – Moelv • Oslo – Ski – Ørje – (Stockholm)
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 18 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 19 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Alignment
Example for very detailed alignment work
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 20 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Civil Structures – Share of Bridges and Tunnels Civil Structures 80
68.4 70 66.3 61.9 60 55.9 53.8 49.8 50 46.8 44.6 46.2 39.2 40 37.0
32.2 % line% of 30 27.4 24.4
20 9.3 9.2 10 6.9 5.6 4.9 5.9 4.2
0
Open line Tunnel Bridges
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 21 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Total Costs and Costs per Line-km
Total Costs for New High Speed Lines Costs per Line Km 150 128.8 250 217.2 214.3 200 185.1 174.4 180.5 100 81.5 150 100
50 29.9 33.7 BillionNOK 14.7 MillionNOK 50 0 0
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 22 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Running times in the Oslo – Bergen/Stavanger Corridor (shortest possible running times including additional stops near terminals)
(hh:mm) Oslo Drammen Bergen Haugesund Stavanger
Oslo 0:18 1:51 1:43 1:54
Drammen 0:18 1:31 1:23 1:34
Bergen 1:51 1:31 1:00 1:11
Haugesund 1:43 1:23 1:00 0:21
Stavanger 1:54 1:34 1:11 0:21
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 23 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Running Times from Lillehammer 1.5
Oslo 00:54 h 1 Gardermoen 00:40 h
Hamar 00:17 h Hours 0.5 Otta 00:30 h Dombås 00:43 h Oppdal 01:00 h 0 Trondheim 01:20 h
Today Oslo 02:06 h
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 24 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
High Speed Rail Network in the Oslo – Trondheim Corridor
Running Times and av. Fares (1,5 NOK/Pkm) In the Oslo-Hadeland-Gjøvik branch line
Minutes NOK Nittedal 9 29 Harestua 14 59 Grua 16 72 Roa 21 80 Gran 27 92 Jaren 24 98 Eina 39 139 Raufoss 33 154 Gjøvik 39 168 Lillehammer 54 232 Moelv 57 198 Jevnaker 27 94 Hønefoss 38 114
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 25 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
High Speed Rail Network in the Oslo–Bergen/Haugesund/Stavanger Corridor Running Times and av. Fares (1,5 NOK/Pkm) From Oslo to
Arna Minutes NOK Tysse Drammen 18 60 Bergen Kongsberg 37 116 Jondal Notodden 50 150 Seljord 72 247 Odda Amot 81 296 Haukeligrend 91 358 Røldal Røldal 103 436 Ølen Odda 110 489 Haukeligrend Oslo Haugesund Oslo 2 Jondal 118 538 Eiker Tysse 125 579 Sauda Kongsberg Bergen 111 619 Aksdal Sauda 109 464 Kårstø Åmot Drammen Noto dden Ølen 118 513 Seljord Haugesund 103 576 Bø Kårstø 128 576 to Skien, Porsgrunn, Kristiansand Stavanger 114 647 Stavanger
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 26 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Operation
Trains* per day and direction**
From Oslo to Trondheim 31 Flights per Day (2011) 35 Ålesund 21 32 31 30 Lillehammer 63 25 20 from Oslo to 15 Bergen 27 15 Haugesund 11 10 Stavanger 27 5 0
*Trains consisting of train units with 4 cars and 200 passengers **Preliminary stopping patterns may change with further investigations.
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 27 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
HSR Passengers Forecast 2025
From To Trips/d (both directions) Oslo Trondheim 8 440 Oslo Ålesund 1 800 Trondheim Ålesund 680
Oslo Bergen 8 990 Oslo Stavanger 8 770 Oslo Haugesund 1 160 Bergen Stavanger 5 980
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 28 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
HSR Passenger Forecast Million Passenger-km 2025 - by mode of origin
Corridor Oslo – Trondheim / Ålesund with Oslo – Corridor Oslo – Bergen/Stavanger Hadeland – Gjøvik – Moelv Existing Rail 8% New Existing New 33 % Rail 25 % 32 % Air 25%
Air 15 % Car Car 26 % 32% Bus Bus 1 % 3%
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 29 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Freight Traffic
New double track lines have sufficient capacity for passenger and freight trains.
Further on they allow essentially shorter transport times and therefore a better competitiveness against road traffic.
Due to the moderate (12.5 o/oo) gradients, trains can run with almost the double load.
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 30 Concept for Railways in Southern Norway
Freight Traffic
Freight trains will be mostly operated during night time when passenger operation is shut down.
Freight trains during day time will be operated at 160 km/h. These fast and light trains can be integrated in the passenger train schedule with eventual overtakings.
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 31 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Freight Traffic – Forecast 2025
Oslo-Trondheim/Ålesund Total Rail 4.32 Bil. tkm Thereoff 2.65 Bil. tkm diverted from road transport
Oslo-Bergen/Stavanger Total Rail 3.58 Bil. tkm Thereoff 1.90 Bil. tkm diverted from road transport
Growth factor 2025-2055: 2.3 % – 2.1 % (gross national product and population growth)
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 32 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Operation and Maintenance Cost Calculation (example)
3.2 Innenreinigung einmal täglich
Reinigungszeit 60 min Anzahl Personen je Wagen 1 Anteil Wartezeiten 10 % Anzahl Personen je Reinigung 4 Arbeitszeit je Reinigung 264 min Anzahl Personal 40 Zuschlag für Fehlzeiten (Urlaub, Wochenende,..) 68 28 Summe 69 Personalkosten je Jahr 2 856 600 €/a Zuschlag für Verwaltung 30 % 856 980 €/a Summe 3 713 580 €/a
Materialkosten je Jahr 50 % 1 856 790 €/a Zuschlag Verwaltungskosten für Material 8 % 148 543 €/a Summe 2 005 333 €/a
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 33 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Revenues and Operation Cost in 2025 (in 2008 values)
Oslo-Trondheim/Ålesund with Gjøvik Passenger transport: 7313 Mil. NOK With 1.50 NOK/P-km Freight transport: 3502 Mil. NOK With 0.81 NOK/t-km Cost for operation and maintenance 2834 Mil. NOK Operational surplus 7981 Mil. NOK
Oslo-Bergen/Stavanger Passenger transport: 7670 Mil. NOK With 1.50 NOK/P-km Freight transport: 2902 Mil. NOK With 0.81 NOK/t-km Cost for operation and maintenance 2468 Mil. NOK Operational surplus 8041 Mil. NOK
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 34 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Environment and Economic Evaluation
Caused by change of modal split (2025):
Oslo-Trondheim/Ålesund/Gjøvik Avoidance of CO2 688 000 Tonnes/a Cost of avoided accidents 1.2 Bil. NOK/a (equivalent to 18 casualties and 450 injured per year) Cost of time savings 3.2 Bil. NOK/a
Oslo-Bergen/Stavanger Avoidance of CO2 752 000 Tonnes/a Cost of avoided accidents 1.3 Bil. NOK/a (equivalent to 17 casualties and 525 injured per year) Cost of time savings 5.3 Bil. NOK/a
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 35 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Cost / Benefit Analyses
Financially assessed Criteria Not quantified Criteria
• Travel Costs • Travel Comfort • Travel Time • Noise, Landscape, Flora and Fauna • Emissions • Economic Development • Accident Costs • Construction related Costs • Induced Traffic • Avoided Costs of existing railway operation • Avoided Train Operator Profit • Resettlement, Barriers, Accessibility
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 36 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Financial Results
• Revenues from passenger and freight operation will exceed Operation and Maintenance costs • Return of equity (financing by state, 30 years concession for operator) 2.9 % Oslo-Trondheim with branch lines 3.3 % Oslo-Bergen/Haugesund/Stavanger
Socio-Economic Results: Oslo-Trondheim Oslo- with Bergen/Haugesu Branch Lines nd/Stavanger Economic benefits Bil. NOK (NPV 2025) 341.5 361.9 Economic costs Bil. NOK (NPV 2025) 226.2 203.9 Benefit/Cost ratio 1.51 1.77
Benefit/cost ratio for Oslo-Trondheim without branch lines around 1.8)
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 37 High Speed Rail Corridor Studies
Summary
• High Speed Rail is a feasible option for Norway.
• High Speed Lines in Norway will produce a positive economic result.
• The expected revenues of the new lines will cover the entire cost of operation and maintenance and a reasonable part of the capital cost for infrastructure and trains. • In case of financing by the state return of equity can be expected.
• High Speed Lines in Norway will cause significant modal split shifts from air and road to rail with all connected economic benefits.
• The new railway lines will provide cost-effective transport solutions to improve the economic quality and competitiveness of the connected regions.
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 38 Thank you
Dipl.-Ing. Ottmar Grein
DB International GmbH Oskar-Sommer-Str. 15 60596 Frankfurt / M. / Germany Tel: +49 69 6319 – 248 Fax: +49 69 6319 – 139 Mobile +49 160 904 38 760 mailto: [email protected] http://www.db-international.de
DB International GmbH, 11.05.2012 39