Climate Cure 2020 Chapter 10 the Transport Sector Analysis
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CLIMATE CURE 2020 MEASURES AND INSTRUMENTS TO ACHIEVE NORWEGIAN CLIMATE GOALS BY 2020 Chapter 10 The Transport Sector Analysis TA 2723/2010 Preface This document is a translation of Chapter 10, Sector analysis of transport, in the Norwegian report Climate Cure 2020, Measures and Instruments for Achieving Norwegian Climate Goals by 2020. The sector analysis has been prepared by an inter agency working group, conducted by the Norwegian Public Road Administration. 10. .................................................................................................................................... Transport 3 10.1 Main results ............................................................................................................................................3 10.2 Scope of the analysis...............................................................................................................................8 10.2.1 Target and scope.....................................................................................................................................8 10.2.2 Assumptions and method........................................................................................................................8 10.3 Technological status .............................................................................................................................11 10.4 Measures that have been analysed ........................................................................................................12 10.5 Emission reductions and the costs of individual measures that result in reduced emissions from means of transport................................................................................................................................................14 10.5.1 Biofuels.................................................................................................................................................15 10.5.2 Increasing the efficiency of passenger cars...........................................................................................17 10.5.3 Car tyres................................................................................................................................................18 10.5.4 Electrification of the vehicle fleet.........................................................................................................18 10.5.5 Hydrogen in the passenger car fleet......................................................................................................18 10.5.6 Increased efficiency in delivery vans and heavy vehicles.....................................................................19 10.5.7 Ecological driving.................................................................................................................................20 10.5.8 Electrification of stretches of railway ...................................................................................................20 10.5.9 Ferries with natural gas.........................................................................................................................20 10.5.10 Lower ship speeds.................................................................................................................................21 10.5.11 Shore power..........................................................................................................................................21 10.5.12 Energy efficiency measures for ships ...................................................................................................21 10.5.13 Oslo ASAP (advanced sectorisation and automation project) ..............................................................22 10.6 Emission reductions and costs for individual measures that result in changed distribution of means of transport/reduced amount of transport ..................................................................................................22 10.6.1 Improved collective transport in the six largest cities...........................................................................25 10.6.2 Doubling of the share of bicycles .........................................................................................................25 10.6.3 Coordination of goods transport ...........................................................................................................25 10.6.4 Goods transport by rail .........................................................................................................................26 10.6.5 Development of intercity trains ............................................................................................................26 10.6.6 Development of high-speed railway .....................................................................................................26 10.6.7 Long-distance buses..............................................................................................................................27 10.7 Measures where the emission potential and costs have not been assessed ...........................................28 10.7.1 More climate-friendly use of space.......................................................................................................28 10.7.2 Paving the way for pedestrians .............................................................................................................28 10.7.3 Active mobility management................................................................................................................28 10.7.4 Cleaning of hulls and propellers ...........................................................................................................29 10.7.5 Modular semi-trailer 25.25 metres long................................................................................................29 10.7.6 Lower speeds on roads..........................................................................................................................29 10.7.7 Upgrading/development of roads..........................................................................................................29 10.7.8 Intelligent transport systems (ITS)........................................................................................................30 10.7.9 Co-modality ..........................................................................................................................................30 10.8 Emission reductions and costs for packages of measures/instruments calculated using a transport model 31 10.9 Uncertainty ...........................................................................................................................................38 10.10 Assessment of policy instruments, transport.........................................................................................39 10.10.1 Economic instruments...........................................................................................................................39 10.10.2 Regulatory instruments.........................................................................................................................45 10.10.3 Information, expertise and research and development (R&D)..............................................................46 2 10. Transport The sector analysis has been prepared by an inter agency working group, conducted by the Norwegian Public Road Administration, consisting of experts from the Climate and Pollution Agency, the government transport agencies and Avinor (the Norwegian Air navigation service provider and main airport operator), and has drawn on reports by external consultants and estimates from different subject areas. Avinor, the Norwegian National Rail Administration, the Norwegian Coastal Administration and the Norwegian Maritime Directorate have performed the analyses of measures and policy instruments employed in their respective areas, but have not had the opportunity to assess and consider the whole report in detail. Seven independent consulting assignments have been carried out, and their reports are available on the website of Climate Cure 2020: www.klimakur.no. Quality assurance of the calculation results as a whole has also been conducted by an external agent. The transport modelling was carried out by the Institute of Transport Economics, partly on assignment from the Ministry of Transport and Communications under the programme for general transport research (POT) and partly by Climate Cure 2020 represented by the National Rail Administration and the Norwegian Public Roads Administration. 10.1 Main results To sum up briefly, the analysis of transport sector measures and instruments shows that it may be possible to achieve emission reductions of the order of 3-4.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2020. This requires very strong instruments, large investments/transfers and a strong political will. It also depends on developments in and access to biofuels. It is necessary to have a long-term strategy behind the choice of instruments in the transport sector, and the instruments must be adjusted over time as their effects become apparent. Demand for transport services increases with economic and population growth. Without new or stronger instruments, the baseline scenario projections show that greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector can be expected to increase from the present 17 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent to about 19 million tonnes in 2020 and 21 million tonnes in 2030. Norway