Paradoxical South Caucasus: Nations, Conflicts and Alliances A
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Paradoxical South Caucasus: Nations, Conflicts and Alliances A thesis presented to the faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Arts Gevorg Melikyan August 2010 © 2010 Gevorg Melikyan. All Rights Reserved. 2 This thesis titled Paradoxical South Caucasus: Nations, Conflicts and Alliances by GEVORG MELIKYAN has been approved for the Department of Political Science and the College of Arts and Sciences by Patricia A. Weitsman Professor of Political Science Benjamin M. Ogles Dean, College of Arts and Sciences 3 ABSTRACT MELIKYAN, GEVORG, M.A., August 2010, Political Science Paradoxical South Caucasus: Nations, Conflicts and Alliances (172 pp.) Director of Thesis: Patricia A. Weitsman On one hand, the collapse of the Soviet Union was the end of a number of insolvable issues; on the other, it created new, no less challenging ones with which states that emerged from the ashes of the Red Empire had to deal. Ancient hatreds, hostilities and violence became an inseparable part of the South Caucasus where confrontations closed ways to cooperation and peace. How did the Soviet Union generate these hatreds and conflicts? Why these threats and bloody armed conflicts? Where do they come from? How does each state react to those threats? The newly independent states even had to fight each other by forming, inter alia, powerful military alliances. What are the dynamics and implications of the alliance formation in the South Caucasus? How do these states choose their strategic-military allies? To what extent do heterogeneous military alliances between Armenia and Russia or Azerbaijan and Turkey, along with Georgia’s effort to join NATO at any price despite negative messages from Russia, stabilize or destabilize the overall status-quo in the region? What drives those newly independent states in choosing their partners? Are those alliances cohesive? If so, how so? These questions are at the core of this research and are discussed and explored along with other important issues and conundrums. Approved: _____________________________________________________________ Patricia A. Weitsman Professor of Political Science 4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First, I am grateful to my parents who accepted my absence for more than a year and with all their heart and soul supported my graduate studies to bring this exciting research to a logical and expected end. I want to thank the faculty of the Department of Political Science, namely my professors Dr. Mosher, Dr. White, Dr. Poggione and Dr. Suzuki who gave me knowledge and experience in the field of political science theories and introduced me to both qualitative and quantitative methods of scientific inquiry. I am deeply grateful to Dr. Waterbury. Her advice and insights about my first paper helped me to have a different view and apply new skills in doing research in our field. I am thankful to Dr. Burnier for her kind assistance. I am deeply grateful to Dr. Fanis for her seminar class, support, and explanations of difficult issues and insightful discussions. Her approaches gave me a different perspective on a number of phenomena in world politics. Thanks to all my friends here in the US and back to Armenia. My special thanks go to Deena Good for her kindness, readiness and infinite support in every minor and major issue. And last but not least, my greatest gratitude to my dear professor Dr. Weitsman. Her contribution to my understanding of a number of IR theories, her nice class designs, insightful advices and simple human interactions are just priceless. The idea to tackle the alliance formation in the South Caucasus is due to her nice book on alliances which inspired me to further explore that issue. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgments............................................................................................................... 4 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 8 List of Maps ........................................................................................................................ 9 List of Tables .................................................................................................................... 10 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 11 Research Design and Methodology .................................................................................. 17 Chapter One: Alliance Literature ...................................................................................... 21 Part 1: Alliances: Theories, Approaches and Definitions ........................................... 21 Part 1.1: Realist Alliances ........................................................................................ 22 Part 1.2: Alliances as Institutions............................................................................. 24 Part 1.3: “Socially Constructed” Alliances .............................................................. 25 Part 2: Literature on Alliance Formation in the South Caucasus ................................ 27 Part 3: Why and with Whom to Ally? ........................................................................ 30 Part 3.1: Alliance Motivations and Formation ......................................................... 30 Part 4: Sources of Threat............................................................................................. 35 Part 4.1: Materialist Sources of Threat .................................................................... 37 Part 4.1.1: Materialist External Threat ............................................................... 37 Part 4.1.2: Materialist Internal Threat ................................................................ 38 Part 4.2: Ideational Sources of Threat ...................................................................... 39 Part 4.2.1: Ideational External Threat ................................................................ 39 Part 4.2.2: Ideational Internal Threat ................................................................. 39 Part 5: Alliance Behaviors ............................................................................................ 40 Part 5.1: Balancing and Bandwagoning, Hedging and Tethering ............................ 40 Part 6: Alliance Cohesion Theory ................................................................................ 44 Part 7: Alliance Paradox: A Realist Approach ............................................................. 46 Chapter One Conclusion ................................................................................................... 47 Chapter Two: A Russian Experiment: 1917-1991 ............................................................ 49 Part 1: The Russian Bolshevik Revolution of 1917-1923 ............................................ 51 6 Part 2: The Birth of the Soviet Empire: A New Tool for Russian Dominance ............ 52 Part 3: Marxist-Leninist Ideology: New Opium of the People .................................... 53 Part 4: World War II and Stalin .................................................................................... 54 Part 5: Hot Relations between the USSR and the West during the Cold War ............. 56 Part 6: Perestroika and Glasnost: Gorbachev’s Communist “Democracy” ................. 57 Part 7: Death of the USSR and Birth of CIS: New Name and Old Ambitions for Russian Imperialism ..................................................................................................... 60 Chapter Two Conclusion .................................................................................................. 62 Chapter Three: From Transcaucasia to the South Caucasus: Gradual Crystallization of Threats and Fears and Emergence of Conflicts ................................................................ 64 Part 1: The Sovietization of the Region ....................................................................... 66 Part 2: The De-Sovietization of the Region and Emergence of the Ethno-Territorial Conflicts in Transcaucasia ............................................................................................ 69 Part 2.1: Nagorno-Karabagh Conflict: History and Present .................................... 71 Part 2.2: Conflict in Abkhazia: History and Present ................................................ 75 Part 2.3: Conflict in South Ossetia: History and Present ......................................... 77 Chapter Three Conclusion ................................................................................................ 80 Chapter Four: The Freed South Caucasus and Dynamics of Subsequent Hostilities ....... 83 Part 1: The South Caucasus: Survival, Perceptions of Threats and Quest for New Allies ........................................................................................................................... 85 Part 1.1: Armenia ..................................................................................................... 85 Part 1.2: Azerbaijan ................................................................................................. 87 Part 1.3: Georgia ...................................................................................................... 89 Chapter Four