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February 2007 OTM Political Landscape

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February 2007 OTM Political Landscape Innovative Research Group, Inc. www.innovativeresearch.ca Toronto :: Vancouver 2015 Election Polling Wave 5: Attitudes and Attributes October 2015 © 2015 Copyright Innovative Research Group Inc. 2 Methodology • These are the findings of an Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) poll conducted from September 29th to October 1st, 2015. In the following slides we will refer to data from this poll as “Wave 5 (October)”. • This online survey of 1,514 Canadians was conducted using sample provided by Survey Sampling International (SSI), a leading provider of online sample. Previous waves have drawn on a combination of SSI and INNOVATIVE’s own Canada 20/20 panel. • Tracking is drawn from two previous waves of online polling: “Wave 1 (July)” from July 24th-30th, 2015, n=2,833; and “Wave 2 (August)” from August 24th to August 31st, 2015, n=3,631; “Wave 3 (September)” from September 4th-10th, 2015, n=2,121; and “Wave 4 (September 2)” from September 20th-24th, 2015. • The sample is then weighted to ensure that the overall sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. • To control for a possible attitudinal bias in online sample, when we can we weight online data using party identification from a random telephone poll. Waves, 1, 2, and 4 were weighted in this way. No recent telephone data was available for Wave 3 or the current Wave 5. • Because the sample included oversamples in Quebec and BC, the final sample is weighted to N=1,000. • INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. • Since online surveys are not random probability based samples, a margin of error can not be calculated. The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association prohibits statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates with regard to most online panels. Note: Graphs and tables may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers. 3 Regions: Where did respondents come from? Regional groupings include: . British Columbia (Yukon) . Alberta (Northwest Territories) . Prairie Region (Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nunavut) National . Ontario Unweighted n=1,514 . Quebec . Atlantic (PEI, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland & Labrador) Weighted n=1,000 British Columbia Unweighted n=358 Weighted n=135 Prairies Quebec Unweighted n=72 Unweighted n=500 Weighted n=65 Weighted n=239 Alberta Unweighted n=112 Weighted n=107 Atlantic Unweighted n=74 Weighted n=71 Ontario Unweighted n=398 Weighted n=382 4 Weighting: Region, Age, Gender Age 18-34 35-44 55+ Unweighted (n-size) 399 571 544 Weighted Atlantic BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec 279 370 351 Region Canada (n-size) Unweighted 358 112 72 398 500 74 (n-size) Weighted 135 107 65 382 239 71 Gender Men Women (n-size) Unweighted (n-size) 686 828 Weighted (n-size) 485 515 Party ID: CPC now leads slightly in Rest of Canada with 1- 5 in-4 Undecided; Bloc tied for first with Liberals in Quebec Q Thinking about federal politics, generally speaking do you think of yourself as a... Rest of Canada Quebec 28% 26% 26% 22% 23% 22% 16% 15% 15% 5% 3% n=239 Note: Oversample in Quebec up to n=500. Attention Likelihood to vote: Less than 2-in-3 now say they will 7 “definitely vote”, lowest since tracking began As you may have heard there is going to be a federal election on October 19th of this year. How likely are you to Q vote in the upcoming Canadian federal election? W1: 83% Likely W2: 80% Likely W3: 82% Likely W4: 82% Likely W5: 80% Likely 70% 70%70% 67% 65% W1: 6% Not Likely W2: 8% Not Likely W3: 7% Not Likely W4: 8% Not likely W5: 8% Not Likely 15% 13%13% 12% 11% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% Definitely Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Definitely will not vote Wave 1 (July '15) Wave 2 (Aug '15) Wave 3 (Sep '15) Wave 4 (Sep '15) Wave 5 (Oct '15) Note: ‘Don’t know’ (3%) not shown Made up mind: almost half have made up their mind, down 8 slightly in October; CPC and BQ most likely to made up minds Q Which statement is closest to your view about the upcoming federal election? % Would like to hear more By current combined vote choice 51% 50% Conservative 36% 47% 46% 43% 42% 41%39% Liberal 45% NDP 45% Bloc Quebecois 37% 11% 9% 9% 11% Green 52% I have heard all I I would like to hear Don't know Undecided/DK 58% need to make up my more before I finally mind in this election make up my mind in this election Would not vote 8% Wave 2 (Aug '15) Wave 3 (Sep '15) Wave 4 (Sep '15) Wave 5 (Oct '15) Attitudes Key attitudes: Time for a change sentiment up slightly to 10 64%, CPC “best party to run govt” steady Q Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (W5) Oct 2015 44% 20% 13% 5% 11% It is time for a change in government (W4) Sept 2015 47% 15% 12% 6% 15% here in Canada (W3) Sept 2015 53% 13% 9% 6% 12% (W2) August 2015 48% 15% 13% 6% 12% (W1) July 2015 49% 14% 12% 6% 12% (W5) Oct 2015 16% 17% 15% 13% 32% The Conservatives may have their (W4) Sept 2015 20% 12% 12% 10% 39% problems but they are still the best party (W3) Sept 2015 17% 12% 10% 9% 45% to form government (W2) August 2015 17% 14% 13% 11% 37% (W1) July 2015 18% 13% 13% 10% 39% (W5) Oct 2015 30% 19% 16% 9% 18% (W4) Sept 2015 33% 17% 14% 6% 23% The most important thing in this election to kicking out Stephen Harper (W3) Sept 2015 39% 16% 10% 6% 22% (W2) August 2015 34% 17% 13% 7% 21% (W1) July 2015 34% 16% 14% 8% 21% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 11 Time for Change Segmentation Do not think it is time for a change and agree Tories are best to form government Core CPC 14% Hostile Soft CPC 28% 8% Time for changeThink it is time for a CPC change but believe 11% Tories are still best to form government Soft anti-CPC Uncertain 27% 12% Think it is time for a change and do not believe Tories are best to form government 35% of Time for change Tories plan to vote CPC, down 8 12 points from September Time for a change segmentations Soft Time-for- Core CPC Uncertain Soft anti-CPC Hostile CPC change CPC CPC 94% 68% 35% 12% 4% 0% Liberal 1% 6% 24% 10% 38% 42% NDP 8% 23% 13% 30% 41% Bloc Quebecois 1% 1% 3% 2% 7% 5% Combined Vote Combined Green/Other 1% 4% 7% 5% 6% 5% Undecided/Wo 3% 13% 8% 58% 14% 6% uld not vote Leadership Leader familiarity: Recall steady, Mulcair still least familiar 14 of main party leaders Q Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures active in politics. How familiar are you with each of Q the following people? [Duceppe: Aug ‘15, n=479; W3, Sep ’15 [1], n=359; W4, Sep ’15 [2], n=478; Oct ‘15 n=239] (W5) Oct '15 30% 47% 15% 6% 2% Justin Trudeau (W4) Sep '15 37% 41% 13% 7% 2% (W3) Sep '15 38% 41% 14% 5% 2% (W2) Aug '15 36% 43% 14% 6% 2% (W5) Oct '15 47% 38% 8% 5%2% Stephen Harper (W4) Sep '15 54% 32% 7% 5%1% (W3) Sep '15 58% 30% 7% 3%2% (W2) Aug '15 57% 29% 8% 4%1% (W5) Oct '15 25% 43% 19% 8% 6% Thomas Mulcair (W4) Sep '15 32% 39% 15% 9% 5% (W3) Sep '15 34% 38% 15% 6% 7% (W2) Aug '15 31% 37% 17% 9% 6% (W5) Oct '15 36% 35% 19% 6% 4% Gilles Duceppe (W4) Sep '15 29% 32% 22% 12% 4% (W3) Sep '15 45% 24% 16% 8% 7% [QC only] (W2) Aug '15 37% 34% 18% 10% 2% (W5) Oct '15 13% 30% 30% 17% 10% Elizabeth May (W4) Sep '15 18% 32% 24% 16% 10% (W3) Sep '15 19% 29% 28% 14% 10% (W2) Aug '15 17% 29% 28% 16% 10% Very familiar with past and positions on issues Somewhat familiar Not very familiar Have heard of them but don't know anything about them Have not heard before this survey Leader Impressions [ALL]: Harper favourables up 9 points, 15 Trudeau up 4 points, Mulcair steady in October Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard of QQ that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that. [Includes unfamiliar % from previous Q] Net Favourability (W5) Oct-15 16% 27% 24% 13% 12% 6% +18 All of Canada (W4) Sep-15 15% 29% 21% 13% 16% 6% +14 Justin Trudeau (W3) Sep-15 17% 31% 18% 14% 15% 5% +19 (W2) Aug-15 14% 30% 22% 13% 16% 5% +14 (W1) July-15 12% 25% 21% 15% 20% 6% +1 (W5) Oct-15 8% 20% 36% 10% 7% 20% +12 (W4) Sep-15 14% 21% 27% 11% 9% 18% +14 Elizabeth May (W3) Sep-15 14% 22% 29% 8% 9% 18% +19 (W2) Aug-15 10% 19% 33% 9% 9% 19% +11 (W1) July-15 10% 17% 29% 12% 14% 18% +1 (W5) Oct-15 14% 20% 15% 16% 31% 6% -13 (W4) Sep-15 14% 17% 12% 14% 39% 5% -22 Stephen Harper (W3) Sep-15 12% 16% 10% 12% 45% 4% -29 (W2) Aug-15 13% 18% 14% 13% 38% 4% -21 (W1) July-15 13% 17% 11% 13% 41% 5% -24 (W5) Oct-15 12% 29% 27% 11% 10% 11% +21 (W4) Sep-15 +22 Thomas Mulcair 13% 32% 23% 11% 12% 10% (W3) Sep-15 16% 31% 21% 11% 10% 11% +26 (W2) Aug-15 16% 29% 24% 9% 10% 11% +26 (W1) July-15 18% 27% 21% 10% 11% 12% +25 Quebec only (W5) Oct-15 14% 21% 27% 15% 16% 7% +4 (W4) Sep-15 8% 17% 32% 16% 16% 12% -7 Gilles Duceppe (W3) Sep-15 13% 19% 24% 13% 21% 10% -3 (W2) Aug-15 12% 23% 31% 13% 15% 6% +7 (W1) July-15 13% 19% 21% 14% 24% 9% -6 Strongly favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Strongly unfavourable DK/Do not recognize Net leader favourables [ALL]: Harper and Trudeau make gains; 16 Mulcair steady and still most favourable Q Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures.
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