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Why Is the Dollar Shrinking?

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Why Is the Dollar Shrinking? WHY THE DOLLAR IS SHRINKINO IRVING FISHER Econ5135 . 5 Harvard College Library WWECCLESIONES AE HARD DIANA ACAD TRISTO NOV AC SIX UM IN CHRTTIIS FROM THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS WHY - - WHY IS THE DOLLAR SHRINKING ? THE MACMILLAN COMPANY NEW YORK • BOSTON · CHICAGO · DALLAS ATLANTA • SAN FRANCISCO MACMILLAN & CO ., LIMITED LONDON • BOMBAY • CALCUTTA MELBOURNE THE MACMILLAN CO . OF CANADA , LTD . TORONTO WHY IS THE DOLLAR SHRINKING ? A STUDY IN THE HIGH COST OF LIVING BY IRVING FISHER PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL ECONOMY IN YALE UNIVERSITY AUTHOR OF " THE PURCHASING POWER OF , MONEY " " THE NATURE OF CAPITAĚ AND INCOME , " ETC , དར་ * New York THE MACMILLAN COMPANY 1914 All rights reserved Econ 5136 . 5 . : From the Quarterly Journal of Economics . COPYRIGHT , 1914 , BY THE MACMILLAN COMPANY . Set up , and elegrotyped . Published September , 1914 . O " Norwood Press J . 8 . Cushing Co . - Berwick & Smith Co . Norwood , Mass . , U . 8 . A . To SIR DAVID BARBOUR VETERAN ADVOCATE OF THE PRINCIPLES FOR WHICH THIS BOOK STANDS PREFACE PRESENT - DAY discussion on the high cost of living shows some bewilderment in the mind of the general public as to the mechanism by which the scale of money prices is determined . Few people realize that the principles determining the general scale of prices are quite distinct from the principles determining the individual prices themselves . Few realize , for instance , that the money price of any commodity has to do not only with that commod ity but also with money , and that , therefore , a monetary element enters into every price . The object of this book is to state , as simply as possible , the general principles which fix the scale of prices , and to show the manner in which these principles apply to the present “ high cost of living . " These principles are not new . They are the same as the well - known principles of Ricardo , and of most subsequent writers on economics . They have been more elaborately stated in my “ The Purchasing Power of Money . ” If these principles are correct , the purchasing power of a dollar — or its reciprocal , the level of prices — depends exclusively on five definite vii PREFACE factors : ( 1 ) the volume of money in circulation ; ( 2 ) its velocity of circulation ; ( 3 ) the volume of bank deposits subject to check ; ( 4 ) its velocity ; and ( 5 ) the volume of trade . Of course , each one of these five influences itself depends on other more remote influences , and these others on others still more remote , and so on ad infinitum . But no cause can affect the scale of prices except as it acts through one of the five above enumerated . In my opinion the branch of economics which treats of these five regulators of purchasing power deserves to be recognized as an exact science , ca pable of precise formulation , demonstration , and statistical verification . For a hundred years the world has been suffer ing from periodic changes in the scale of prices , affecting the interests of hundreds of millions of human beings and producing alternate expansions and depressions of trade . It is not too much to say that the evils of a variable monetary standard are among the most serious economic evils with which civilization has to deal . In the United States we are about to witness some extremely interesting applications of the principles here stated , owing to the two great acts passed by Congress toward the close of 1913 , i . e . , the tariff act and the currency act . For instance , the tariff reduction , by inviting imports of com modities , will tend for a time to encourage the ex port of gold , until the drain limits itself by the fall of our prices or the rise of foreign prices . The viii PREFACE Ameritscurrency and act , will if sotobably probably tend tend to increase bank deposits and , if so , to restrain the fall of the American scale of prices and so to prolong the ex port of gold . If these results ensue , there may well be much surprise expressed and some criticism . It will then be important that the public shall correctly understand what is going on ; otherwise many senseless proposals may be made and even adopted . I hope soon , in another book , to set forth a remedy for changes in the scale of prices by - “ standardizing the dollar . ” I am indebted to the North American Review for permission to use unaltered certain passages from my article “ Is the High Cost of Living Going Higher ? ” published in December , 1912 . I am also under obligations to several of my students , especially Mr . Paul M . Atkins , for aid in assembling the statistics from which the dia grams are constructed . IRVING FISHER . YALE UNIVERSITY , April , 1914 . POSTSCRIPT ( AUGUST 25 , 1914 ) This book was already printed , but not issued , when the great European war broke out . So colossal an event will , naturally , have important effects on prices . At this writing , when the war is merely beginning , it is , of course , quite impossible to predict with accuracy what all these effects will be . In general , however , we may feel confident that the net and ultimate effect will be to aggravate the upward tendency which , as we already had reason to believe , was impending . In Europe , especially , the cost of living will probably rise above anything previously known . The rise is likely to be greater after the war than during the war . The rise during the war will probably be less rapid in England than in the other warring countries , but after the war , more rapid . There is even possible , the anomaly , that , during the war , the general level of prices in England will actually fall . The rise during the war , in small countries , like Belgium , will probably be greater than that in large countries , like France , which are more nearly self - supporting . The rise in any country which resorts to irredeemable . paper money will be further aggravated in proportion to the degree of inflation . POSTSCRIPT Such are the chief probable effects on price levels . But what is more important , this rise will be an es pecial hardship to the peoples at war because of the great impoverishment which the war will surely bring . That is to say , high money prices will be accompanied by low money earnings . The cost of the war , accord ing to the best estimates , will equal or exceed half of the total income of the inhabitants of the warring nations . It is true that much of this burden can be shifted to future years ; but , even then , it will severely tax resources already crippled by the previous destruc tion and disorganization of capital . Fortunately for us in the United States , unless we are drawn into the conflict , the rise of prices will be less than in Europe , and we shall have our earning power substantially unimpaired . We are speaking , of course , only of general price movements , not of individual prices . We may be sure that , though many goods will rise in price , some will fall , and some will oscillate up and down . In fact , the first and most striking effect of the war on prices will be to disperse or scatter them . Foods will especially rise and bonds will especially fall . In the four pages to which this postscript must be restricted , it is only possible to mention a few of the chief reasons which have led to these conclusions . This book was written largely to show that the price level is , in general , the resultant of a race between the circulation of money and credit on the one hand and the volume of trade on the other , - a race as to which will grow the faster . During the war both racers will rest awhile . Prob POSTSCRIPT ably both will recede materially , but trade faster than circulation ; this will cause prices to rise . After the war both will again expand , but credit will rebound faster than trade ; this will cause prices to rise still further . If we examine the diagrams of this book during and after the great wars of modern times , the Crimean War ( 1854 - 1856 ) , the American Civil War ( 1861 – 1865 ) , the Franco - Prussian War ( 1870 - 1871 ) , the Spanish American War ( 1898 ) , the Boer War ( 1899 – 1902 ) , and the Russo - Japanese War ( 1904 – 1905 ) , we shall notice that the price level usually rises at the begin ning of a war and again after the war is finished . In the American Civil War , the existence of the Green backs obscured these facts . But the price level , ex pressed in gold , increased faster after , than it did dur ing , the Civil War . Edward E . Gellender , who has made a detailed study of prices in relation to wars , shows in the publi cations of the ( British ) Institute of Bankers , Novem ber , 1901 , that after wars trade generally booms and prices rise until a crisis appears ( e . g . that of 1857 after the Crimean War , that of 1866 after the Civil War , that of 1873 after the Franco - Prussian War ) . We have ventured the opinion that the English price level will rise less during and more after the war than Continental price levels . This is because it is believed that the effect on prices due to changes of trade in England will be less , and the effect on prices due to changes of her money and credit circulation , more than on the Continent , both during and after the war . During the war , England will withdraw POSTSCRIPT fewer reservists from industry than the other nations ; and there is less chance in England of the stoppage , by physical destruction , of her internal com merce . Even her foreign trade is being safeguarded from interference far more thoroughly than is that of any other warring nations ; and , in any event , this for eign trade , vast as it is , only amounts to perhaps a tithe of the internal commerce .
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