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Title: Comparison of Two Systems for Regional Flash Flood Hazard Assessment

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Title: Comparison of Two Systems for Regional Flash Flood Hazard Assessment Elsevier Editorial System(tm) for Journal of Hydrology Manuscript Draft Manuscript Number: Title: Comparison of two systems for regional flash flood hazard assessment Article Type: Research paper Keywords: Flash floods; Early warning systems; Radar rainfall; Drainage network; Return period Corresponding Author: Dr. Carles Corral, Corresponding Author's Institution: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya First Author: Carles Corral Order of Authors: Carles Corral; Marc Berenguer; Daniel Sempere-Torres; Laura Poletti; Francesco Silvestro; Nicola Rebora Abstract: The anticipation of flash flood events is crucial to issue warnings to mitigate their impact. This work presents a comparison of two early warning systems for real-time flash flood hazard assessment and forecasting at regional scale. The two systems are based in a gridded drainage network and they use weather radar precipitation inputs to assess the hazard level in different points of the study area, considering the year return period as a good indicator of the flash flood hazard. The essential difference between the systems is that one is a rainfall-based system, using the upstream catchment-aggregated rainfall as the variable to determine the hazard level, while the other is a full system based on streamflows computed by a rainfall-runoff model. The comparison has been done for three rainfall events in the autumn of 2014 that resulted in severe flooding in the Liguria region (Northwest of Italy). The results obtained by the two systems have many similarities, particularly for larger catchments and for large return periods (extreme floods). Suggested Reviewers: Katharina Liechti [email protected] Lorenzo Alfieri [email protected] Jonathan Gourley [email protected] Kai Schröter [email protected] Francesco Marra [email protected] Highlights (3 to 5 bullet points (maximum 85 characters including spaces per bullet point) Highlights Two flash flood early warning systems are compared analysing three extreme events. Hazard is assessed in terms of return period for the whole Liguria region. Weather radar rainfall is used as input for the warning systems. Manuscript (double-spaced and continuously LINE and PAGE numbered) Click here to view linked References 1 Comparison of two systems for regional flash flood hazard assessment 2 Carles Corral, Marc Berenguer, Daniel Sempere-Torres 3 Center of Applied Research in Hydrometeorology. Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 4 Barcelona, Spain. 5 6 Laura Poletti, Francesco Silvestro, Nicola Rebora 7 CIMA Research Foundation, Savona, Italy. 8 9 Corresponding author: Carles Corral 10 [email protected] 11 CRAHI-UPC 12 Module C4 - S1, c/ Jordi Girona, 1-3. 08034 Barcelona 13 14 Abstract 15 The anticipation of flash flood events is crucial to issue warnings to mitigate their impact. 16 This work presents a comparison of two early warning systems for real-time flash flood 17 hazard assessment and forecasting at regional scale. The two systems are based in a 18 gridded drainage network and they use weather radar precipitation inputs to assess the 19 hazard level in different points of the study area, considering the year return period as a 20 good indicator of the flash flood hazard. The essential difference between the systems is 21 that one is a rainfall-based system, using the upstream catchment-aggregated rainfall as 22 the variable to determine the hazard level, while the other is a full system based on 23 streamflows computed by a rainfall-runoff model. The comparison has been done for three 24 rainfall events in the autumn of 2014 that resulted in severe flooding in the Liguria region 25 (Northwest of Italy). The results obtained by the two systems have many similarities, 26 particularly for larger catchments and for large return periods (extreme floods). 1 27 28 Keywords 29 Flash floods, early warning systems, radar rainfall, drainage network, return period 30 2 31 1. Introduction 32 Flash floods produce devastating effects worldwide. They affect steep and small to 33 medium catchments (up to few hundreds of square kilometres), and are typically induced 34 by extreme rainfall in the upstream area. The lapse time between strong rainfall initiates 35 (the cause) and the flood takes place (the effect) depends primarily on the features of the 36 catchment, ranging from the order of tens of minutes in the smallest catchments to a few 37 hours in the larger ones (Borga et al., 2008; Gaume et al., 2009; Marchi et al., 2010). In any 38 case, this reaction time is very short, frequently too short to activate the emergency 39 response and effectively prevent damages in human activities, properties and life. Thus, 40 anticipating this kind of hazard and get some extra minutes or hours for better 41 preparedness and response is crucial and a major challenge. 42 Among the problems encountered to extend this reaction time are the chaotic and 43 explosive nature of the rainfall events, usually characterized by convective systems 44 producing highly variable rainfall that are difficult to measure and forecast. Also, flash 45 floods affect places at regional scale that are often poorly or very poorly gauged at 46 catchment scale. That is, the intrinsic difficulties to apply a rainfall runoff model would be 47 amplified. For this reason, the high space and time resolution of radar rainfall 48 observations provide relevant information to produce both quantitative precipitation 49 estimates (QPE) and forecasts (QPF), which are fundamental inputs of a quality flash flood 50 early warning system. 51 Flood early warning systems provide real-time information about flood forecasts, and 52 consequently a planned warning to support the response can be issued. In order to be 53 useful for the practitioner, the magnitude of the flood is commonly related to the 54 exceedance of a particular threshold, for instance the river bank overflow or a statistical 55 frequency of occurrence. Ideally, flood forecasts should be directly associated to the flow 56 discharge in a specific section, but the limitations to implement an operational rainfall- 3 57 runoff model over large regions, or the difficulties to obtain reliable flow thresholds at the 58 same scale, have yield to other approaches. Since the upstream catchment rainfall is the 59 most important forcing factor to produce flow in a point, this value (spatially averaged) 60 can be used as the determining variable, leading to a system operationally more simple, at 61 the expenses of (in theory) loss of reliability. In a paper reviewing recent advances in flash 62 flood forecasting, Hapuarachchi et al. (2011) distinguished the two approaches described 63 above as the commonly used when QPE and QPF are available, naming them as the flow 64 comparison method and the rainfall comparison method, respectively. 65 The simplicity of the rainfall based methods does not only concern their implementation, 66 data needs and computer requirements. Any internal analysis or post-processing of the 67 results is in general simpler too. For instance, uncertainty analysis is limited to that of 68 rainfall, and forecasted rainfall is probably the main source of uncertainty in hydrological 69 modelling. Another aspect that highlights the interest of the rainfall based methods was 70 described in the development of the Gradex method by Guillot and Duband (1967), who 71 found that the gradient of the statistical distribution of the yearly maximum discharge 72 tends to follow asymptotically that of the yearly maximum daily rainfall for high return 73 periods. Then, when dealing with extreme floods, rainfall based methods seem to be 74 appropriate. 75 The Mediterranean coast is an area particularly prone to damages produced by flash 76 floods. Large rainfall amounts produced by the combination of the warm sea and the 77 abrupt orography is the main triggering cause, but also steep and narrow streams in 78 catchments where population and urban development have increased in the recent past 79 decades, often without an adequate flood urban planning. The Liguria region in Northwest 80 Italy shares the previous features of a Mediterranean flash flood prone area. In fact, its 81 location in the Gulf of Genoa makes the region particularly affected by intense rainfall. 4 82 A flood warning system is operating at the Regional Environmental Protection Agency of 83 Liguria (ARPAL), monitoring the entire region (Silvestro et al., 2011; Silvestro and Rebora, 84 2012). This system is based on the application of a distributed grid-based rainfall-runoff 85 model, and thus hazard assessment is based on a flow comparison method. Considering 86 the extensive spatial coverage of the outputs (at grid cell scale), it can be seen as a "full" 87 flood warning system applied at regional scale. The purpose of this study is to compare the 88 outputs of this flow based warning system against a rainfall based system which is similar 89 in structure and provides the same spatial coverage. This rainfall based flood warning 90 system is operational in the Spanish Regional Water Agency of Catalonia (ACA), and with 91 little effort it is transportable to other regions (Corral et al., 2009; Alfieri et al., 2011, 2017; 92 Versini et al., 2014). The comparison between the two systems provides the opportunity 93 to analyse their similarities and the differences. Among other conclusions, this comparison 94 should allow us to characterize the effect of the simplifications of a rainfall based warning 95 system compared to a flow based warning system. 96 Both systems provide hazard assessment in the form of frequency of occurrence (or 97 return period), and the comparison is made in these terms. We have analysed three 98 important flood events that affected the Liguria region in the autumn of 2014. For 99 consistency purposes, rainfall inputs are the same for both systems (radar rainfall 100 estimates during the selected events), and rainfall and flow thresholds are based on the 101 same climatological dataset.
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