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Understanding the “Conditionality Gap” in Estonia and Latvia The Influence of EU Conditionality and Russia’s Activism on Minority Inclusion By Jennie Schulze B.A. 2001, Boston College A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy August 31, 2009 Dissertation directed by James G. Goldgeier Professor of Political Science and International Relations The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University certifies that Jennie Schulze has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of July 2, 2009. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Understanding the “Conditionality Gap” in Estonia and Latvia The Influence of EU Conditionality and Russia’s Activism on Minority Inclusion Jennie Schulze Dissertation Research Committee: James G. Goldgeier, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Dissertation Director Henry H. Hale, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Committee Member Zsuzsa Csergo, Associate Professor of Political Studies, Queen’s University, Committee Member ii © Copyright 2009 by Jennie Schulze All rights reserved iii Acknowledgements This dissertation could not have been completed without generous funding from several institutions. Pre-dissertation grants from the American Consortium on EU Studies and the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) were crucial for the early development of the dissertation project. Generous support for field research in Estonia and Latvia was provided by an EU Marie Curie grant in conjunction with The Integration of the European Second Generation (TIES) project. Additional support for field work expenses and the write-up phase of the dissertation was generously provided by the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the George Washington University in the form of a Hoffman Dissertation Grant, an EUSA Haas Fund Summer Dissertation Fellowship, an Association for Women in Science (AWIS) Educational Foundation Pre-doctoral Award, and an Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS) dissertation grant. Support for tuition expenses were provided by The George Washington University Graduate Fellowship and by the Scottish Rite Graduate Fellowship. A special acknowledgement is due to the Institute for International and Social Studies at Tallinn University, which housed me during my field work. Professor Raivo Vetik and others at the institute provided crucial support and guidance during my three years of field work in Estonia and Latvia and I sincerely thank them for all of their help. Very special thanks is due to my dissertation committee members, Professors James Goldgeier, Zsuzsa Csergo and Henry Hale, who were the source of constant guidance, iv support, and inspiration throughout the dissertation project. I can never thank them enough for the many letters of recommendation they have written, the multiple drafts of my work that they have read, their helpful advice, and most of all for their unfailing encouragement and support. I would also like to thank my family and friends who supported me through the past seven years. Last, but not least, I would like to thank my husband, who was willing to move to Estonia during my field research, and who has always been my greatest advocate and my best friend. v Abstract of Dissertation Understanding the “Conditionality Gap” in Estonia and Latvia The Influence of EU Conditionality and Russia’s Activism on Minority Inclusion Latvia and Estonia, which joined the EU in 2004, are lauded as “success” cases for those scholars concerned with demonstrating the positive effects of EU conditionality on democratic nation-building. This is because pressure from European institutions led to changes in citizenship and language policies in both states in the late 1990s. However, the impact of these policy changes on minority integration actually remains unclear in Estonia and Latvia, as the Russian-speaking minority remains marginalized in these societies with respect to their economic, political and social standing. The Russian- speaking minority has responded to this marginalization with expressions of discontent in the form of vandalism, demonstrations, and riots, the most recent of which were the Bronze Soldier riots in Estonia in April 2007 and the protests over educational reform in Latvia in spring 2004. If EU conditionality was supposed to ensure that universal standards regarding minority rights were adopted by accession states, then what explains these growing expressions that international norms and domestic understandings of those norms have not converged? Through an analysis of both international conventions and domestic minority policy documents, an innovative “Q method” study, and semi-structured interviews with policy elites in both states, the dissertation addresses four primary research questions: 1) Are domestic policies in the areas of citizenship, language, and education consistent with European minority rights standards?; 2) How are European “minority rights norms”, and vi “integration”, understood by policy elites and to what extent are these understandings consistent with international standards?; 3) How does normative pressure from European institutions to integrate the Russian minority influence the development of minority policies and elite attitudes toward minority integration in the post-accession period?; and 4) How does Russia’s activism impact the integration process and the acceptance of minority rights norms by elites in these societies? The dissertation calls the success of EU conditionality in the area of minority rights into question, by pointing to both the shallowness of changes in citizenship and language policies in the late 1990s and disagreements over the meaning and importance of minority rights norms among Estonian and Latvian elites. In addition, it illustrates that previous studies on the comparative impact of kin-state activism and EU conditionality on minority policies in these states should not be so quick to dismiss Russia’s influence on attitudes toward integration processes. While Russia’s activism may not always have a direct impact on changing policies in the direction of greater minority inclusion, it does produce a defensive reaction among elites and can cultivate and perpetuate “myths” in society, both of which work against the integration process and the development of more inclusive minority policies. vii Table of Contents Acknowledgments………………………………………………………………………..iv Abstract of Dissertation…………………………………………………………………..vi Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………….viii List of Figures…………………………………………...………………………………..ix List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………...x Abbreviations…………………………………………………………………………….xi Chapter 1: International Pressure, Democratization and Minority Inclusion: The Puzzles of the Estonian and Latvian “Success Cases”…………………. 1 Chapter 2: International Institutions and Kin-States as Socializing Forces……………...52 Chapter 3: Compliance and Noncompliance: Conditionality and Normative Pressure........................................................................................104 Chapter 4: The Compatriot Issue: Russia’s Kin-State Activism……………………….176 Chapter 5: International Pressures and Minority Inclusion: A Q Method Study Among Estonian and Latvian Elites…………………...231 Chapter 6: Two More Cases for the “Conditionality Gap”………….……………….…290 Bibliography……………...…………………………………………………………….305 Appendix………………………………………………………………………..322 viii List of Figures Figure 1 Theoretical Structure of the Q Sample ………………………………………...44 Figure 2 Q Sort Distribution …………………………………………………………….47 ix List of Tables Table 1 Statements about Russia and the Russian Minority (Latvia)…………………..238 Table 2 Statements about the EU (Latvia)……………………………………………...241 Table 3 Statements about EU Norms and the Impact of EU Membership on Integration (Latvia)………………………………………………………….243 Table 4 Statements about Russia’s Impact on Policies and Integration Processes (Latvia)……………………………………………………………...251 Table 5 Statements about Language Policies and Language Use (Latvia)……………..255 Table 6 Statements about Russia and the Russian Minority (Estonia)…………………266 Table 7 Statements about the EU (Estonia)…………………………………………….270 Table 8 Statements about EU Norms and the Impact of EU Membership on Integration (Estonia)………………………………………………………...272 Table 9 Statements about Russia’s Impact on Policies and Integration………………..277 Processes (Estonia) Table 10 Statements about Language Policies and Language Use (Estonia)…………..279 Table 11 Estonian Q Sample with Factor Arrays and Normalized Scores for Each Statement……………………………………………………………322 Table 12 Latvian Q Sample with Factor Arrays and Normalized Scores for Each Statement……………………………………………………………326 Table 13 Estonian Participants and Factor Loadings…………………………………...330 Table 14 Latvian Participants and Factor Loadings……………………………………331 x List of Abbreviations CEE – Central and Eastern European CoE – Council of Europe ECRML – European Charter for the Protection of Regional and Minority Languages EU – European Union FCNM – Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities FITPN – Framework for the Integration of Third Party Nationals HCNM – High Commissioner for National Minorities IFI – International Financial Institutions IMF – International Monetary Fund NATO – North

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