School Organisational Needs Assessment (SONA) 2016

People Directorate Capital Team  01724 297893  www.northlincs.gov.uk Contents Page

Part 1: Introduction to SONA Appendices 1 Glossary and technical terms 88 Part 2: Primary schools’ estate needs assessment 13 2 Photograph credits 89 2.1 Overview of the primary school s’ estate 14 3 Maintained schools /academies sixth form census data 90 2.2 Barton District planning area 22 4 Special schools census data including sixth form 91 2.3 Brigg and District planning area 26 2.4 Barton Town planning area 30 2.5 Burton and Winterton planning area 34 2.6 Isle North planning area 38 2.7 Isle South planning area 42 2.8 Scunthorpe North planning area 46 2.9 Scunthorpe South planning area 50 2.10 Scunthorpe North and South adjacency analysis 54

Please contact us to discuss school organisation &

Part 3 Secondary schools’ estate needs assessment 55 place planning issues

3.1 Overview of the secondary schools’ estate 56 People Directorate 3.2 Scunthorpe planning area 64 Capital Team 3.3 Brigg planning area 67 Hewson House 3.4 Barton planning area 70 Station Road 3.5 The Isle planning area 73 Brigg 3.6 Kirton planning area 76 DN20 8XB

3.7 Winterton planning area 79 Sandra Burniston (Access Manager – Capital and Visits)  [email protected] Part 4: Proposed actions based on needs assessment 82  01724 297893  www.northlincs.gov.uk 4.1 Primary schools’ estate action plan 83

4.2 Secondary schools’ estate action plan 85 Control version 18.08.v1

Foreword

North Lincolnshire’s Education and Skills Plan sets out the shared ambitions for educating children and young people in North Lincolnshire. The plan focuses on three overarching outcomes, which are:

 children to feel safe and are safe;  children to enjoy good health and emotional wellbeing and  children to recognise and achieve their potential

The Education and Skills Plan acknowledges the importance of school place planning in achieving these outcomes through the:

 effective supply of mainstream places to meet community needs;  creation of a sustainable and coherent estate for life-long learning;  development of an infrastructure in which all providers can quickly adapt to new opportunities and New modern ‘teaching wall’ installed at Grange Lane Primary School  provision of choice of high quality educational establishments for all our children and young people

We know from talking to children and head teachers that providing modern and vibrant learning environments helps foster a sense of pride and has a positive impact on learning and behaviour. This is why we have invested over £85m in developing the schools’ estate over the last three years, which includes £45m Priority School Building Programme funding (PSBP) and £26.6m on the Building Schools for the Future project. As part of PSBP seven schools and academies will be rebuilt, which means that over 3,630 pupils will be attending a brand new school or academy by September 2017.

Working in close partnership with school leaders, North Lincolnshire has an excellent track record of offering parents their first preference school. Despite increased pressure on school places in the primary sector, North Lincolnshire was ranked 11th best authority in England in 2016 for offering parents their highest preference school. I would like to thank school leaders for their help in achieving this positive outcome for all our children.

We will continue to invest in our schools’ estate and use our funding to make sure we have a sufficient supply of school places in the right locations. If you have any thoughts on school organisation proposals, local authority officers will be pleased to discuss these with you.

Cllr David Rose

Cabinet Member for Children Families and Learning

Executive summary

Primary School Estate: Over recent years we have experienced growth in demand for primary school places. The total number of pupils in the primary sector has risen steadily from its lowest point in 2010 (12,348) to date (13,552), representing a growth of 1,204 pupils or (10%). Looking beyond 2016, growth in pupil numbers is expected to increase until 2018. Thereafter there will be a slight decrease over the following 3 years. In addition to population growth there are 72 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications which could yield up to 1,600+ additional primary school places in existing planning areas; and the creation of new planning areas (Lincolnshire Lakes) could yield up to 1,500+ additional primary school places. Although it is proposed that three new primary schools will be built to meet demand for the Lincolnshire Lakes development, it is likely the nearby Scunthorpe primary schools will be required to accommodate additional pupils during the early phase of house building, prior to the new schools opening.

The Scunthorpe planning areas are currently experiencing pressure on school places and consideration of further basic need investment is required. Barton Town has sufficient capacity to meet overall demand, but individual year groups are oversubscribed and the proposed housing developments will put further pressure across the planning area’s estate. Consideration of further basic need investment is required.

Secondary School Estate: The anticipated total number on roll in North Lincolnshire is set to rise from 8,849 in 2016 to 9839 in 2023 (990 increase). The recent growth in numbers in the primary sector will start to feed through to the secondary sector and increase pressure on places. In addition to larger year groups, inward migration as a result of major housing developments will increase the demand on school places. Currently there are 72 identified strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield a further 1,300+ places and the Lincolnshire Lakes Development could yield a further 1,200+ pupils. It is proposed that existing local secondary schools will be expanded to meet increasing demand from the housing developments (including Lincolnshire Lakes).

The Scunthorpe planning areas are currently experiencing pressure on school places and consideration of further basic need investment is required. Even without the housing developments, the equilibrium between supply and demand will be reached in 2020 and then be exceeded in future years.

The Humber UTC opened in September 2015 for year 10-13 pupils (published admission number of 150). The anticipated admissions to the UTC for September 2016 into Y10 and Y12 is lower than the 2015 figures. The lower cohorts choosing to transfer to the UTC in year 9, means it has little impact on contributing to the solution for larger cohorts moving up from the primary sector. John Leggott College is in the process of establishing a 14-16 provision for September 2016 which may impact on future year 10 and 11 pupils in the local secondary schools. Similarly to the UTC, this will not impact on the solution for children moving into year 7.

1.1 Introduction

The aim of the School Organisational Needs Assessment (SONA) is to help the local authority (LA) and the wider community understand the future demand for mainstream school places. The document provides the essential data-sets to help support and justify options for developing the schools’ estate. The plan itself does not routinely identify individual schools for change, but considers the future needs on a planning area basis. Where necessary, detailed option appraisals / feasibility studies may be developed thereafter.

This assessment sets out the framework within which the LA will consider the organisation of school places and helps evidence the need for capital investment. The assessment includes detailed demographic information, and identifies a number of other issues that may have a significant impact on the need for school places. The information within this document is based on 2016 data, and will be updated annually.

The document presents planning data over the longest possible planning horizon so that the LA, schools and other key stakeholders are able to take well informed, long-term, strategic decisions, aimed at securing the best possible outcomes for all our children. The requirement for a clear, overarching organisation plan, whilst not statutory, is certainly important. A series of fundamental changes in legislation and national policy have changed the role of the local authority from being the sole provider of services to schools, to being both a provider and commissioner of education and children’s services.

Our strategic aim is for all children and young people to have access to a good quality school place within their catchment area.

1.2 About this document

The phrase ‘school organisational needs assessment’ refers to the process which is undertaken to map out how the local authority is able to match the ever changing demands for school1 places to our current supply of school places. Where the assessment identifies an imbalance between supply and demand, action is proposed to identify suitable solutions. The document is organised into the following four parts:

Part 1: Background: The first part of the document describes the key factors relevant to place planning.

Part 2: Needs assessment primary school place planning: The second part of the document looks at the 8 primary school planning areas with the aim of identifying whether there is sufficient number of school places to accommodate forecasted pupil numbers.

1 The word ‘school’ is generally used through this document to refer to any approved provider of mainstream school education, whether an academy or maintained schools. Where it is deemed appropriate to draw a distinction between academies and schools, then the appropriate category has been applied.

Part 3: Needs assessment secondary school place planning: The third part of the document looks at the 6 secondary school planning areas with the purpose of identifying whether there is sufficient number of school places to accommodate forecasted pupil numbers.

Part 4: Action plans. Based on the needs assessments provided in part 2 and part 3, two succinct action plans are presented, which identify a number of key tasks which need to be undertaken to address foreseeable deficiencies in the supply of primary and secondary school places.

1.3 Why have this document?

The document provides a reference point so potential academy providers can consider North Lincolnshire’s demographics and the factors that are currently influencing the supply and demand of school places. Any future reviews of school provision undertaken by the LA (eg opening, closing, enlargement or reduction in size, federation or amalgamation of schools) will in part, be based on information contained within this needs assessment. Publication of the SONA will help the LA to be:

Accountable: allowing open access to planning data will provide the opportunity for stakeholders to understand the current situation and raise queries or offer solutions where appropriate.

Transparent: Whilst the projections are based on well-reasoned assumptions, their degree of accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Therefore, it is important that data is available to all stakeholders to help facilitate discussion and prompt alternative views regarding pupil forecasts. It is recognised that school leaders’ have a unique understanding about their local communities and their local knowledge will help gain a better understanding of factors that may influence place planning.

A commissioner of school places: Publishing the data helps confirm the LA’s role as a ‘commissioner of school places’ as opposed to a ‘provider of school places’. Access to the pupil population forecasts will allow stakeholders to consider how they may develop, shape and influence the market for school places. This may stimulate innovation and provide alternative options that are better suited to meet the needs of local communities.

1.4 Who is this document for?

The local authority: This document provides information for the LA to assess whether it will adequately be able to meet its statutory duty to provide a sufficient number of school places. Where a deficiency / pressure in school places is identified, the document will define action required to address concerns. In its strategic role, the LA must ensure there is a response to changes in demand over time by securing the increase or removal of capacity. This can be achieved in a number of ways including:

• Commissioning new schools (the presumption set out in law is that all new schools will be academies or free schools); • Extending existing schools, • Reducing places at existing schools, for example by removing buildings or changing the use of spaces • Promoting the reorganisation of schools, including amalgamating, federating, relocating or closing schools, changing the age range; • Reviewing admission arrangements such as catchment areas

Sponsors: A sponsor is an organisation that wishes to establish a new school. This document will be important to sponsors so they can evaluate the current and future demand for school places and assess the viability to propose a new school / expansion.

School Leaders: This document provides helpful background information for school leaders who may wish to consider proposing their own organisational solutions.

1.5 Legislation and guidance affecting the supply and demand of school places:

The law requires admission authorities to provide for the admission of all children in the September following their fourth birthday. North Lincolnshire’s Education and Skills Plan confirms the LA’s commitment to provide sufficient mainstream school places to meet communities’ needs and the demand created through new housing and demographic change. It also fulfils the plan’s commitment to publish school population forecasts.

In changing or increasing provision, the LA is required, in certain circumstances, to seek and consider bids from external providers including trusts and other educational organisations. The council values diversity in its school provision. Government legislation dictates that any new schools must be either an Academy or a Free School, so the LA welcomes approaches from appropriate bodies proposing sponsorship arrangements for new or reorganised schools or academies.

Where proposals are received (via the LA) for the establishment of a new free school within their region, the Regional Schools Commissioner (RSC) will make the decision about which proposer is most likely to deliver a high performing school. The RSC has the power to exercise the Secretary of State’s

right to put in place a proposer of his/her own choice where there is further evidence about the suitability of a proposer or availability of a better proposer.

Legislation and guidance governing school organisation (mergers, closures and new schools etc) includes:

 sections 7-32 of the Education and Inspections Act 2006, as amended by the Education Act 2011;  Schools Organisation Maintained Schools Guidance for proposers and decision makers dated January 2014 and  School Organisation (Prescribed Alterations to Maintained Schools) (England) Regulations 2013 and (Establishment and Discontinuance of Schools) Regulations 2013, which came into force on 28 January 2014.  Making ‘prescribed alterations’ to maintained schools -Statutory guidance for proposers and decision-makers

1.6 Partnership working

As more academies and free schools are created, more decisions about school organisation will become the responsibility of trusts / governing boards, which may result in piecemeal decision making. Therefore, it is important that the local authority provides an area-wide leadership role helping to develop a cohesive education system that works for all families and children. To do this the LA will build on the successful working relationship that already exists with stakeholders to work collectively on school organisation projects.

1.7 Primary planning principles children aged 4 – 11

In considering changes to provision or the creation of new provision in the primary sector, the council will plan on the following principles:  Published Admissions Numbers (PANs) for new primary schools will not normally be less than 30 and will normally be multiples of 30 or 15.  The LA prefers to provide all through primary schools, rather than separate infant and junior schools, to provide continuity between Key Stages 1 and 2.  The LA will seek to maintain smaller schools where the quality of provision is high and where the school offers value for money.  The council will consider arrangements that allow for the management of small local schools within a single institutional framework (a federation) under a single governing body and one head teacher.  Consult with school leaders, prior to engaging with public stakeholders.

1.8 Secondary planning principals children aged 11-16

In considering changes to provision or the creation of new provision in the secondary sector, the LA will plan on the following principles:

 Published Admissions Numbers (PANs) for secondary schools will normally be multiples of 30.  The council will invest in the expansion of smaller schools where the quality of provision is high and where the school offers value for money.  The council will consider arrangements that allow for the management of small local schools within a single institutional framework (a federation) under a single governing body and one head teacher.  Consult with school leaders, prior to engaging with public stakeholders

1.9 What factors do we consider in making school organisational changes?

A variety of factors may lead to the council making proposals for changes in school provision, which includes:  Changes in the population and/or the continuing demand for places in an area  Opportunities to make positive educational developments  The quality of education provided by the school according to recent performance data and Ofsted inspections.  The institutions public examinations results, national tests or locally agreed data  The value that the school can be shown to be adding to the educational achievement of pupils  The popularity of the school with local residents and wider user groups  Parental preference for the school  The prospects for the school viability in terms of admission numbers  Indicators that the institution has a good understanding of the challenges it faces and the ability and determination to tackle these challenges  Indicators as to whether the school is able to make a sound educational offer within its allocated budget  The feasibility of physical expansion on the school site  Financial feasibility  Maintaining or enhancing the diversity of provision

1.10 Factors affecting Demand

Birth Rates: The number of births is the most significant factor affecting demand for school places. The births and under 5s data is used as the basis for planning school places, especially in relation to first admissions.

Cross Border Movement: North Lincolnshire shares boundaries with North East Lincolnshire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Doncaster Authorities and the northern boundary of the county is the River Humber. Information on previous year’s net migration for primary and secondary sectors is as follows:

 Primary - The DfE’s published data on LA cross border movement shows that 161 pupils educated in North Lincolnshire lived outside North Lincolnshire; and 141 pupils residing in North Lincolnshire attended schools outside North Lincolnshire (a net gain of 20 pupils). One North Lincolnshire school catchment area covers part of North East Lincolnshire. One small village in North Lincolnshire has a catchment school in Lincolnshire.

 Secondary - The DfE’s published data on LA cross border movement shows that 507 pupils who were educated in North Lincolnshire resided outside North Lincolnshire; and 430 pupils living in North Lincolnshire were educated outside of North Lincolnshire (net gain of 77).

Housing Developments: The LA has a comprehensive list of major housing developments that have planning approval. In parts 2 and 3 of this document, the pupil forecasts include the indicative demand from potential housing developments. However, it should be noted that the rates in which developers build housing can vary dramatically and is often dependent on the buoyancy of the housing market / wider economy. At one extreme housing developments with approved planning applications can remain dormant for years, which means the anticipated additional demand for pupil places will never be realised. Even when developments commence the build rate may speed up, slow down or even stop. Clearly this unpredictability means that expansion of schools cannot be founded simply on the basis of approved planning applications. Therefore, a fine balance needs to be struck between waiting for housing developments to commence before starting any school expansion, but not letting the housing development occupancy levels rise so quickly that the local schools are not able to accommodate the additional demand. The two graphs below provide an indicative profile of housing developments in respective planning areas for the primary estate and secondary school estate. The graphs show that the largest developments are in Scunthorpe North, Scunthorpe South, Barton Town, Brigg and Kirton.

Indicative housing yield primary Indicative housing yield secondary

1800 1400 Scunthorpe North Scunthorpe planning area 1600 Scunthorpe South Brigg planning area 1200 Brigg & District Barton planning area 1400 Barton Town Kirton planning area Burton & Winterton 1000 1200 Isle North Winterton & Burton planning area Isle South Isle planning area 800 1000 Barton District

800 600

600 400 400

200 200

0 0 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

Lincolnshire Lakes The Lincolnshire Lakes area comprises 2063ha of land to the west of the Scunthorpe urban area, adjacent to the Scunthorpe North and Scunthorpe South planning areas. The development will create sustainable new village communities which deliver a balance of homes, jobs and local services with high a frequency public transport service. It will be designed in a way that delivers a high quality living environment and a place of character.

The development will generate 6000+ new dwellings and will create demand for 1,500+ new primary school places and 1,200+ secondary school places. It is proposed that:

 Three new primary schools will be built on the development to accommodate primary school children and  The local secondary schools will be expanded to meet the demand from secondary aged pupils.

The council is currently working with two developers (Lucent and Maltgrade) which will see the delivery of 3000, and 2500 houses respectively. The third developer has not yet been identified. The graph below provides an indication of the likely build rate for these developers and the pupil yield that might be generated.

Lincolnshire Lakes Indicative Housing Yields

1600 6000 Cumulative Yield Primary (Lucent & Maltgrade) 1400 Cumulative Yield Secondary (Lucent & Malgrade) 5000 1200 cumulative housing 4000 1000 800 3000 600 2000

housingfrom yield pupil 400 1000 (houses) profile build indicative 200

0 0

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 2025/26

1.11 Data analysis methodology / limitations

This section describes the method employed when calculating pupil projections.

Use of Planning Areas: Whilst pupil projections are calculated for each individual school, it should be noted that the degree of error at school level may be more pronounced (especially with primary schools). In order to reduce the degree of error the LA uses discrete planning areas, involving clusters of schools. Aggregating a number of schools into discrete planning areas helps to ‘smooth‐out’ individual schools’ peaks and troughs and provides an overarching strategic assessment as to whether the LA is able to supply a sufficient number of school places. The planning areas are based on principal settlements within North Lincolnshire, although it is recognised that the population density may vary.

Catchment Areas: Within these planning areas, most schools have their own discrete catchment area. However, some catchments may serve more than one school (ie shared catchments) and Catholic schools normally serve, as a priority, Catholic children from within their local ecclesiastical parish boundaries. From a planning perspective, catchment areas provide a suitable framework to assess supply and demand. While parents generally seek local schools for their children, their children are not obliged to attend a school within their catchment area, or within North Lincolnshire. There is thus no exact cause and effect between the number of children living in an area and school places available. Equally, children from neighbouring

8 authorities may choose to attend schools within North Lincolnshire. There are, however, established patterns which can be used to ascertain the net gain / loss of pupils.

School census data: A schools census is undertaken in January each year, which provides accurate information regarding exact numbers on roll.

GP population data: Birth and population data is received from the NHS, which is used as the basis for primary school projections.

Calculating Primary Projections (First Admissions): It is more difficult to predict first admission numbers because of the shorter planning horizon from births to school enrolment. In the short term (four year planning) the LA is able to make projections based on NHS birth / population data. Whilst this has limitations, it does provide a reliable indication of the size of the forthcoming pupil cohorts. However, medium / longer term planning is problematic, given that estimates are effectively based on pupils who have not even been born. The data in Part 2 (primary) show projections based on birth data for numbers on roll in January 2017 to January 2021. Thereafter a rolling average is used to provide an approximation of possible pupil numbers. The key purpose of the rolling average is to provide a guide to determine the possible impact of housing developments that extend beyond the 4 year primary school planning horizon.

In calculating Primary Projections (including infant and junior schools) – the NHS birth / population data is sorted into school catchment areas and adjusted to take account of shared catchments. Capita One (software) then applies the weighted historical trends for the last three years to predict the numbers. These numbers are adjusted to take account of internal migration to produce the final figures. Finally, a manual check is undertaken by an experienced member of staff.

Calculating secondary projections: Year 6 to 7 transfers are easier than first admissions to predict, as the pupil cohorts can be extrapolated from known data sets (ie, the vast majority of secondary aged pupils, previously attend one of our primary schools). In calculating the secondary projections, the average transfer rate from primary schools to secondary schools is calculated. The majority of secondary schools are analysed in geographic planning areas. These numbers are adjusted to take account of internal migration to produce the final figures.

1.12 Caveat: Using the pupil demand forecasts:

As noted previously, projecting pupil numbers can be problematic. Whilst planning assumptions are well reasoned and based on robust data, the actual outturn may differ for numerous reasons. For example, unplanned events like Ofsted outcomes, examination results, league tables etc may all affect the pattern of parental preference and the demand for any particular school. In view of this, the following two points are made.

1) Data in this document should not be used for planning purposes at school level (eg schools should not use it unconditionally for budgeting or staffing purposes). As noted earlier, the degree of error will always be more sensitive at school level – however, at the planning area level these errors will be ‘smoothed out’.

2) Stakeholders who are seeking to establish proposals to develop new schools provision (eg academies, free schools or independent schools) or expand existing provision, are encouraged to discuss this with the LA. Where possible, the LA will support potential proposers to undertake a feasibility study to establish the viability and impact of new provision.

Data quality assurance: The table below compares last year’s projections (not published in this document), with the actual allocations. It can be seen that the overall accuracy across all planning areas equates to a variation of 9 pupils for the primary sector and 92 pupils for the secondary sector. Whilst the secondary sector had a greater variance, the projections for Scunthorpe planning area (which equated to 50%+ of the total population)only had a variance of only 9 pupils.

Primary Secondary Allocated Allocated Y7 Previous year's Reception Sep Projected Y7 Sep 2016 at Planning area projections 2016 at 30.06.16 Variance % Variance Planning area Sept 2016 16.8.16 Variance % Variance Barton & District 105 121 16 15.2% Barton 150 144 -6 -4.0% Brigg and District 307 310 3 1.0% Brigg 274 280 6 2.2% Barton Town 117 118 1 0.9% Isle 249 271 22 8.8% Burton & Winterton 115 119 4 3.5% Kirton 72 117 45 62.5% Isle North 81 84 3 3.7% Winterton 103 119 16 15.5% Isle South 136 129 -7 -5.1% Scunthorpe 994 1003 9 0.9% Scunthorpe North 379 359 -20 -5.3% ------Scunthorpe South 733 724 -9 -1.2% ------Totals 733 724 -9 -1.2% Totals 1842 1934 92 5.0%

1.13 Supply of school places

This section deals specifically with the supply of additional accommodation that has been created within the primary estate over the previous four academic years. As the table below shows nearly £5m has been committed to basic need schemes which have generated an additional 679 places.

2013-2016: A summary of basic need capital projects.

Year School Scheme Type No of places Cost

2013/14 Lincoln Gardens Group Room Extension 30 174,379 2013/14 St Peter & St Paul CE Primary New School Phase 2 120 1,251,665 2013/14 Castledyke Primary 1 classroom extension 30 153,812 2013/14 Althorpe & Keadby Primary Internal alterations 5 11,808 2013/14 Castledyke Primary Internal alterations 30 3,296 2014/15 Brumby Junior Internal alteration 28 16,880 2014/15 Holme Valley Primary Internal alteration 30 196,300 2014/15 Bowmandale Primary classroom extension and hall 30 715,122 2015/16 Scunthorpe CE Primary Internal alterations 22 22,569 2015/16 Holme Valley Primary 3 classrooms extension and new hall 90 1,128,709 2015/16 St Peter & St Paul CE Primary 2 classroom extension 60 477,297 2015/16 Hibaldstow Academy 1 classroom extension 30 264,138 2015/16 Castledyke Primary 1 classroom extension 30 279,487 2015/16 Oasis Academy Henderson Ave New build school (PSBP) 35 Cost met by PSBP 2016/17 The Grange Primary New build school (PSBP 30 £110,000 2016/17 Crosby Primary New build school (PSBP) 49 Cost met by PSBP 2016/17 Brumby Juniors New build school (PSBP) 30 £120,497 Total 679 4,925,959

Part 2: the primary sector:

Key data on the primary schools’estate

Population data: historic and projected

Control version 18.08v1

13 2.1 North Lincolnshire: overview of the primary school estate and demographics

overview 2.1.1 About North Lincolnshire Mid-2015 population estimates suggest that the total population of North Lincolnshire was 169,820, an increase of almost 600 from the 2014 estimates.  The average age of the population of North Lincolnshire, at 41.6 years, is higher than the national average of 39.7 years.  Males account for 49.5% of the total population in North Lincolnshire whilst females account for 50.5%.  There are 201 people per square kilometre in North Lincolnshire, less than half the England average of 420.  North Lincolnshire’s population is set to rise to 179,500 by 2039, an increase of 9680 people.  Household numbers are predicted to rise from71,975 in 2014 to 80,485 in 2039.

Key school facts  8 planning areas  62 schools (which are broken down into; 53 primary schools, 4 Junior schools and 5 infant schools)  4 federations (8 schools)  26% attend diocese affiliated schools  13,552 pupils on roll  94% of parents get their first preference

Demand: The anticipated total number on roll in North Lincolnshire will peak in 2018. Inward migration as a result of major housing developments will increase the demand on school places. Currently there are 72 identified strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield a further 1,500+ places. In addition, the Lincolnshire Lakes project may result in 6000+ homes being built. Although three new primary schools will be built on the development , the

immediate demand from the first wave of occupants will need to be addresses using existing schools.

Current Supply: Overall the current supply is sufficient to meet the anticipated number on roll for the next five years. However, there are pressures in certain locations, which are noted in the commentary for each planning area.

14 2.1 North Lincolnshire: overview of the primary school estate and demographics

2.1.2 An introduction to North Lincolnshire’s Primary School estates

As at January 2016, there were 13,552 pupils on roll in North Lincolnshire schools. The primary school population in North Lincolnshire is served by 62 schools of which 53 are primary schools, 4 are junior schools and 5 are infant schools. As can be seen in the tables overleaf, there are a diverse range of providers responsible for running these schools. These providers include national academy chains, local multi-academy trusts, convertor academies and the local authority.

In total 8 schools (4 pairs) are hard federated with a single executive head teacher and a single governing board. The federated schools have a combine roll of 1338 pupils.

Local diocesan bodies have oversight of a large proportion of church schools. In total 23 schools are affiliated in some way to their respective diocesan body. Five of these schools belong to their diocesan multi academy trust and two schools are convertor academies. In total 3,553 pupils (or 26% of the primary school population) attend a school that is affiliated to a diocesan body.

Over recent years there has been an increased demand for school places in the primary sector. The anticipated demand for reception places for the whole of North Lincolnshire is projected to be maintained at the current level until 2017/18 and then dip slightly. The anticipated total number on roll of North Lincolnshire schools is anticipated to peak in 2017/18. Inward migration as a result of major housing developments will increase the demand on school places. The Lincolnshire Lakes project may result in 6000+ homes being built. Although three new primary schools will be built on the development to meet demand, the immediate demand from the first wave of occupants, will need to be addresses using existing schools.

On a planning area basis Scunthorpe North, Scunthorpe South and Barton Town Planning Area are all currently experiencing pressure on school places and may require investment. Further details regarding the issues are provided in the separate planning area analysis sections.

Whilst children can be accommodated in reception years in the smaller village schools, these schools are often popular and fill up to their Published admission number (PAN) with siblings and non-catchment pupils. This causes a problem when families subsequently move into the village when the school is full to PAN in the relevant year groups. Under the North Lincolnshire’s, fair access protocol it may be determined that there is not a suitable alternative and the child is admitted over admission number.

15 2.1 North Lincolnshire: overview of the primary school estate and demographics

2.1.3 Diversity of provision within North Lincolnshire (number of establishments)

of of

Number / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMAT NorthLins Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter TotalLincoln CE Diocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated Infant 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Junior 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Primary 53 8 39 1 4 3 2 2 2 17 1 4 Total 62 8 48 1 4 3 2 2 2 18 1 4

2.1.4 Diversity of provision within North Lincolnshire (numbers on roll)

Number of / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMAT NorthLi Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter TotalLincoln CE Diocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated Infant 854 854 179 Junior 1089 1089 Primary 11609 1338 8175 103 993 629 413 907 389 2327 54 993 Total 13552 1338 10118 103 993 629 413 907 389 2506 54 993

2.1.5 Profile Summary of schools in North Lincolnshire School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

rly years rly

site ea site

NOR Jan 16 NORJan Status On provision Capacity PAN Ethnic % minority made Offers % Prefs 1st offered SEN CIC Catch Siblings Distance LA bY Offer by Offer OAA lodged Appeals by07/16 year Intake Capacity+/ Infant and primary 12463 Mixed 46 13683 2122 ---- 1922 94.5 7 34 1240 184 247 38 145 18 +200 +314 Junior 1089 mixed 0 1164 385 ---- 382 93.4 3 6 252 35 74 12 0 2 +3 +183 Total 13552 --- 46 14847 2507 14.9% 2304 ---- 10 40 1492 219 321 50 145 20 ------Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

16 2.1 North Lincolnshire: overview of the primary school estate and demographics

2.1.6 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers on roll What does the data tell us? 16000 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in

15000 North Lincolnshire. The key points to note from the data are:

14000  The total number of pupils in the primary sector has risen steadily from its lowest 13000 point in 2010 (12,348) to date (13,522), representing a growth of 1174 pupils or

13,704 (10%). Looking beyond 2016, growth in pupil numbers is expected to increase until

13,612

13,585

13,552 13,552

13,532 13,514

12000 13,497

13,392 13,388

13,120 2018. Thereafter there will be a slight decrease of over the following 3 years.

12,785

12,773

12,586 12,573

11000 12,521

12,402 12,348 12,348  There are 72 housing allocations / approved applications that could yield an

10000 additional 1600+ places (see orange dotted line).

9000 Number on Roll (NOR) 8000 NOR + Possible Housing (not inc Lincs Lakes) 7000 Capacity @ 2016 <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

6000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2011 2012 2013 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2006

2.1.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 2200 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within North Lincolnshire. The key points to note from the data are: 2000  The total number of pupils for the primary intake has risen steadily from its lowest

1980 point in 2007 (1,631) to its highest in 2014 (1,980). 1945

1800 1935

1919

1910

1900 1890

1889  Comparing 2007 (1,631) with 2016 (1945) it can be seen that schools admitted and

1841

1834 1834

1830

1821 1817 1814 additional 314 (19%) pupils for the 2016 intake.

1600 1757  There are 72 housing allocations / approved applications that could significantly

1685 1659

1631 increase demand (see orange dotted line). 1400

Number on Roll (NOR) 1200 NOR + Possible Housing (Not inc Lincs Lakes) PAN <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

1000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2022 2023 2024

17 2.1 North Lincolnshire: overview of the primary school estate and demographics

2.1.8 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared to NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number 750 793 75.0% Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (pupils) of pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (%) 650 65.0% school places within each of the 8 planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 550 55.0%

450 45.0%  Comparing 2010 to 2016, there has been a net increase of 1204 (10%) pupils.  All planning areas have experienced growth. 350 35.0%  The biggest percentage increases have been in Scunthorpe South (19.1%), Barton District 14.9% and Barton Town 13.7%. 250 25.0% 19.1%  Collective these three areas have seen a growth of an extra 1004 pupils. 14.9% 13.7% 122 150 109 102 15.0% 5.2% 5.3% 33 38 3.9% 50 1.6% 23 5.0%

-16 -50 -1.6% -5.0% Barton District Brigg & Barton Town Burton & Isle North Isle South Scun North Scun South District Wint.

2.1.9 Projected pupil population growth: NOR 2016 compared to NOR 2020 What does the data tell us? 200 181 20.0% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2016 with the total projected Projected NOR in 2016 compared with projected NOR in 2020 growth (pupils) number of pupils on roll in 2020 to determine a forecast for net increase / decrease in Projected NOR in 2016 compared with projected NOR in 2020 growth (%) 150 15.0% demand for school places within each of the 8 planning areas. The key points to note from the data are: 100 10.0% 65  This graphs shows a contrasting picture in comparison to historic growth trends 50 3.7% 5.0% 2.7% shown in the previous graph (2.1.8). 10 1.2%  Growth is anticipated in Scunthorpe North and Scunthorpe South planning areas. 0 0.0% Whilst the growth rate is lower (2.7% and 3.7%) than previous years, there is little -2 -0.3% -12 capacity within Scunthorpe and, therefore, nominal growth may have a -23 -1.9% -50 -2.7% -5.0% disproportional impact. -5.7%  Most of the other planning areas are expected to see a decline. The Isle South and -100 -10.0% Brigg planning areas are projected to see the largest decline in pupil numbers of 120 and 119 respectively. -119 -120 -12.0% -150 -15.0% Barton District Brigg & Barton Town Burton & Isle North Isle South Scun North Scun South District Wint.

18 2.1 North Lincolnshire: overview of the primary school estate and demographics

2.1.10 Infant, junior and primary: 1st preferences offered What does the data tell us?

110.00% This graph provides information regarding the total number of first preferences that Infant & Pry Junior North Lincolnshire Council has been able to offer applicants. 105.00%

 Despite increasing demand for school places, the local authority has always been 98.85%

100.00% 98.59%

97.13%

97.12%

97.05% 96.98%

96.81% able to offer 93%+ of applicants there preferred school place for admission into

96.35% 96.35%

96.24%

95.45%

95.26%

94.89%

94.50%

94.44% 94.32%

93.97% infant school, primary school or junior school. 95.00% 93.46%

90.00%

85.00%

80.00%

75.00%

70.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2.1.11 -1st preferences offered for 2016, by planning area What does the data tell us? This graph provides information regarding the total number of first preferences that 1st Prefs offered Average North Lincolnshire Council has been able to offer applicants in 2016, shown by each 105% planning area. The key points from the data are: 100.0% 100.0% 99.1% 99.0% 100% 98.4% 97.7%  Scunthorpe South has experienced significant demand for places, which explains 95% why it is below average. There were seven schools in this planning area that were 90.3% 90.2% oversubscribed with first preference allocations: These were: Lincoln Gardens 90% (54%); Bushfield Infants (53%); St Bernadettes (20%); Oakfield (17%), Bottesford

85% Junior (16%); Bottesford Inf (4%) and Frodingham Infants (4%).  In the Isle North planning areas, 23 parents applied for 15 available places at Saint 80% Norbert's Catholic. This resulted in the planning areas average reducing to 90.2%.

75%

70% Barton and Isle South Barton Town Brigg Burton & Scunthorpe Scunthorpe Isle North District Winterton North South

19 2.1 North Lincolnshire: overview of the primary school estate and demographics

2.1.12 Primary estate school size analysis. What does the data tell us? 5000 This graph provides an analysis of the sizes of infant, junior and primary 4500 15 schools schools within North Lincolnshire. The x-axis is based on school size increasing by a 4000 19 schools half form (15 pupils) increments, with the exception of the first category which is 3500 based on ¼ form entry. 3000 6 schools 2500  There are 17 small schools (ie less than 105 NOR) in North Lincolnshire, which 2000 3 Schools have a combined roll of 1196 or 8.8% of the population. 2 schools 1500 13 schools  The two largest schools have a combined roll of 1201, which also equates to 8.8% 1000 4 schools of the population. 500 178 1018 3186 3992 2600 1377 1201

421-525NOR

0-50 NOR

316-420NOR 106-210NOR

211-315NOR

526-630+NOR

51-105NOR

(max form entry)

(max 2 formentry) (max 1 formentry) (max 3 formentry)

(max form 1.5 entry)

(max 0.25form entry) (max form0.50 entry) School sizes (in half form incraments)

2.1.13 Analysis of pupil population by ethnicity and locality What does the data tell us? This graph provides information on pupil ethnicity by locality. On average 14.9% of

56% Scuntorpe North 44% the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group. The data shows that Scunthorpe has the largest percentage of ethnic minority pupils.

89% Scunthorpe South 11%

91% Brigg 9%

93% Barton Town 7% White British 93% Isle North 7% Ethinic Minority

95% Isle South 5%

95% Barton District 5%

95% Burton & Winterton 5%

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% xs 20 2.1 North Lincolnshire: overview of the primary school estate and demographics

2.1.14 Analysis of surplus places (actual pupil numbers) What does the data tell us?

20 This graph provides information regarding the actual number of surplus places in each infant, primary and junior school. The data is calculated by deducting the schools’ net 10 capacity from the total number of pupils on roll, which determines the surplus places 0 available. The key points to note from the data are:

-10  The bars towards the left shows the schools with the greatest number of surplus -20 places. The first line shows a school with 87 spare places, and so on…

-30  The bars to the right shows schools that have exceeded their capacity.  Not all surplus places are ‘usable places’. For example a few spare spaces in year schools -40 6, will not help with higher admission in reception, because it would not be -50 practical to mix these classes.  Surplus places are also required as an operation buffer, to allow movement. -60

-70 Number ofspare places in each of62 the primary -80 eg this school has 87 spare places. -90

2.1.15 Analysis of surplus places (Percentage of space compared with capacity) What does the data tell us?

10% This graph provides information regarding the percentage of space a school has compared to its actual capacity. The key points to note from the data are:

0%  The bars towards the left show the schools with the greatest number of surplus places. The first line shows a school with 41% capacity, and so on…  -10% The bars to the right shows schools that have exceeded their capacity.  This analysis is limited, in that surplus places do not always equate to ‘usable places’. Surplus 10% Buffer

-20% Places % schools

-30%

-40%

Percentage Percentage ofplaces spare in each of62 the primary eg this school has 41% surplus places

-50%

21 2.2 Barton District Planning Area

Barton District planning area 2.2.1 About the planning area: Barton District is located to the north east side of North Lincolnshire. The planning area adjoins the River Humber and shares land borders with North East Lincolnshire Council and Lincolnshire County Council.

Barton District covers 151km2 , which makes it the second largest primary planning area in North Lincolnshire. The estimated population is 11,200 and there are 5,000 dwelling. There are 8 schools in the planning area and as at January 2016 there were 840 pupils one roll

Key population facts Population density: The area is the least densely populated area, with 5.6 pupils per 1km2 (avg 15:8km2).  Pupils per population: 1 out of every 13.3 residents is a primary aged pupil (NL average = 12.9). Pupils per dwelling: There is 1 pupil for every 5.9 dwellings (NL average is 5.55).  Ethnicity: 5% of the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group (NL 15%).  Deprivation: The planning area is, on average, the 5th most deprived (out of 8).

Demand: Demand for school places has steadily risen from 2010 and is projected to peak in 2017 and then remain fairly constant from 2018 to 2024. There are currently no approved planning applications for this planning area.

Supply: Supply can adequately meet projected demand.

22 2.2 Barton District Planning Area

2.2.2: Planning area summary Barton District planning area has 8 primary schools with a combined roll of 840 pupils. The aggregated distribution of pupils across the year groups is: 14.2% (Rec); 12.4% (Y1); 15.2% (Y2); 15.0% (Y3); 14.8% (Y4); 15.6% (Y5) and 12.9% (Y6). The schools have a total combined surplus capacity of -195 places and -30 places in the reception years. On national offer day 2016, 100% of parents in this planning area received their first preference; and all parents in the catchment area who named the school at their first preference were offered a place.

2.2.3 Profile of schools within planning area School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

lodged lodged

Size: Size:

site early years early site

- Capacity+/

made offers

Type Status On provision School smallest = 1 16 NORJan Capacity PAN Ethnic % minority % Prefs 1st offered SEN CIN criterion Catch Siblings Distance LA bY Offer by Offer OAA Appeals by07/16 +/ Reception ` East Halton Primary (Fed) P C Y 5/62 54 63 9 23% 5 100% 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 -4 -9 Goxhill Primary Sch (Fed) P C Y 39/62 234 252 36 5% 36 100% 0 0 27 3 6 0 0 0 0 `-18 John Harrison CE P VC Y 22/62 168 209 30 5% 19 100% 0 0 16 0 3 0 0 0 -11 -41 Killingholme P C Y 18/62 115 126 18 1% 14 100% 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -11 Kirmington St Helen's (Fed) P VC Y 2/62 45 56 8 6% 4 100% 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 -4 -11 New Holland CE/Methodist P VC Y 9/62 61 84 12 2% 9 100% 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -23 Ulceby St Nicholas CE P A Y 16/62 103 175 23 1% 20 100% 0 0 19 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -72 Wootton St. Andrew's CE P VA Y 8/62 60 70 10 5% 9 100% 0 0 4 3 2 0 0 0 -1 -10

Total ------840 1035 146 5% 116 100% 0 0 94 8 14 0 0 0 -30 -195 Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

The table below show the diversity of provision with the Barton District planning area. The majority of schools are affiliated to the Lincoln CE Dioceses, and one of these schools is a member of the Lincoln Diocese Multi Academy Trust. East Halton Primary School and Goxhill Primary Schools operate under a hard federation with a single executive head teacher and a single governing body. Kirmington CE Primary School also operates under a hard federation leadership structure with St. Barnabas CE Primary (which is located in Barton District planning area).

2.2.4 Diversity of provision within planning area

Lincoln Lincoln

Number of / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMA NorthLins Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated NOR 840 3 737 103 ------437 ------Number of Schools 8 326 7 1 ------5 ------

23 2.2 Barton District Planning Area

2.2.5 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 40 90% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of 76% 30 67% pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 70% 30 26 places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 23 46% 45% 18 19 50% 20 17 35%  There has been a net increase of 109 pupils, which represents a 15% growth of pupil 13 30% numbers within this planning area. 10  This percentage growth is the second highest in the 8 planning areas across North 11% 8% 10% Lincolnshire. 0  This planning area has a number of small schools (less than 105 on roll). Four of East Hal Goxhill John Har Killingh Kirmingt New Holl Ulceby S Wootton -10% these schools (Wooton, New Holland, East Halton, Kirmington and Wooton) have -10 seen significant increases in pupil numbers. -30% -26%  By contrast Ulceby School’s total NOR has decreased by 37 pupils which represents -20 -50% 26% decline.

-30 -70% 2010/16 historic growth 2010/16 Historic growth rate % -40 -37 -90%

2.2.6 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 70% 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which 50% establishments have exceeded their PAN for the intake year and/or exceeded their 40% schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is:

30% intake year  capacity = 7 schools / acadamies Killingholme 20% Wooton  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / acadamies

Intake Year Over PAN Over Year Intake 10% John Harrison Goxhill  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / acadamies

-70% -60% -40% -20% 0% 10% 30% 50% 70% -30% -10% 20% 40% 60% -50% iIntake year  capacity = 0 schools / acadamies -10% New Holland -20% As can be seen from this summary, there are no concerns regarding recent admissions East Halton into the intake year or the schools’ overall capacity. -30% Kirmington -40% -50%

Ulcby -60% Intake Year Under PANUnder IntakeYear -70% Capacity under Capacity Over

24 2.2 Barton District Planning Area

2.2.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 1200 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll

1000 in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

 Demand for school places has steadily risen from 2010 and is projected to peak in

800 2017 and then remain fairly constant from 2018 to 2024.

862

853

850

849

848 848

848

846

840

823 807

804  There are currently no approved planning applications for this planning area.

767

762 762

749

743 738 600 731  As at January 2016 there were 195 surplus places in this planning area.  The anticipated demand for places is well below the combined capacities for the schools within this planning area. 400  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decline by 10 pupils or by -1.2% . Number on Roll (NOR) / Projections 200 Est. number of houses planned Capacity @ 2016 <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006

2.2.8 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 180 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 160

140  Demand for school places has stayed reasonably constant from 2011 to 2016. From 2016 it is anticipated that pupil numbers will decline until 2019 and then rise back 120 to the pre-2016 levels.

 There are currently no live planning applications for this planning area.

120 120 119

100 117

116

115 115 115 114

112  As at January 2016 there were 30 surplus places for the reception year in this

108

107 107

106 104

80 97 planning area.

92 90 87  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decrease 60 by an average of -2 pupils per year or 1.68%.

40 Number on Roll (NOR Rec)  The anticipated demand for places is well below the combined capacities for the Est. number of houses planned schools within this planning area. On the 2016 national offer day there was 20% PANs 20 surplus places available for reception admissions within the planning area and all <--January school census projections / rollling average --> applications received their first preference application.

2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2021 2022 2023 2024 2008 2009 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2007

25 2.3 Brigg and District Planning area Brigg and District Planning area

2.3.1 About the planning area: The Brigg and District planning area spans from the north to the south of the eastern side of North Lincolnshire. It comprises of a mix of rural areas such as Worlaby, Bonby and South Ferriby, and larger settlements such as Brigg Town, Kirton, Messingham and Broughton.

The planning area covers 248km2, which makes it the largest primary planning area in North Lincolnshire. The estimated population is 30,900 and there are 13,300 dwelling. There are 11 schools in the planning area and as at January 2016 there were 2099 pupils one roll

Key population facts Population density: The area is the 5th most densely populated with 8.5 pupils per 1km2 (avg 15.8:1km2).  Pupils per population: 1 out of every 14.7 residents is a primary aged pupil (NL average = 12.9). Pupils per dwelling: There is 1 pupil for every 6.3 dwellings (NL average is 5.55).  Ethnicity: 9% of the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group (NL 15%).  Deprivation: The planning area is, on average, the 7th least deprived (out of 8).

Demand: The demand for school places is expected to show an average decline over the next 4 years. There are a number of strategic housing allocations which could yield up to 345 places over the next 8 years.

Supply & Actions: Whilst the projections show there is sufficient overall capacity to meet demand, there are some village schools in this rural area that are facing particular pressure. The housing developments in this area are predominantly around Brigg and Kirton, with a small development in Hibaldstow. These housing developments will create localised pressure on individual schools.

26 2.3 Brigg and District Planning area 2.3.2 Planning Area Summary Brigg and District planning area has 11 primary schools with a combined roll of 2,099 pupils. The aggregated distribution of pupils across the year groups is: 13.1% (Rec); 15.0% (Y1); 13.4% (Y2); 5.9% (Y3); 13.6% (Y4); 4.3% (Y5) and 14.7% (Y6). The schools have a total combined surplus capacity of -290 places and -47 spare places in the reception years. On national offer day 2016, 99% of parents in this planning area received their first preference; and all parents in the catchment area who named the school at their first preference were offered a place.

2.3.3 Profile of Schools within planning area School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

lodged lodged

Size: Size:

site early years early site

ovision Capacity+/

made offers

Type Status On pr School smallest = 1 16 NORJan Capacity PAN Ethnic % minority % Prefs 1st offered SEN CIN criterion Catch Siblings Distance LA bY Offer by Offer OAA Appeals by07/16 +/ Reception ` Brigg P C Y 53/62 360 420 60 10% 55 100% 0 0 48 5 1 1 0 0 -5 -60 Broughton P C N 51/62 333 420 60 8% 55 100% 0 2 46 3 4 0 0 0 -5 -87 Hibaldstow Academy P A N 20/62 147 140 20 14% 21 100% 0 0 18 0 0 3 0 0 1 7 Kirton in Lindsey P C N 30/62 195 262 40 5% 25 100% 0 1 22 0 1 1 0 0 -15 -67 Messingham P C N 40/62 236 294 42 10% 36 100% 0 3 28 2 3 0 0 0 -6 -58 Saint Mary's Catholic P A N 28/62 186 182 28 17% 27 100% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 27 0 -1 4 Scawby Academy P A Y 32/62 199 210 30 9% 30 90% 0 0 19 5 6 0 0 0 0 -11 South Ferriby P C Y 7/62 57 90 13 3% 7 100% 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 -6 -33 St. Barnabas CE (fed) P VC N 24/62 174 161 23 4% 15 100% 0 0 14 1 0 0 0 0 -8 13 Worlaby Academy P A Y 10/62 72 70 13 10% 13 100% 0 1 11 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 Wrawby St. Mary's CE P VC Y 19/62 140 140 20 6% 18 100% 0 0 13 0 5 0 0 0 -2 0 Total ------2099 2389 349 9% 302 99% 0 7 225 17 21 5 27 0 -47 -290

Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

The table below shows the diversity of provision with the Brigg and District planning area. Two schools are affiliated to the diocesan bodies; two schools from a multi academy trust and one school is part of a national academy chain. The majority of schools are maintained, with a total pupil population of 1,459. St. Barnabas CE Primary School also operates under a hard federation leadership structure with Kirmington CE Primary School (see Barton and District planning area).

2.3.4 Diversity of provision within planning area

Lincoln Lincoln

Number of / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEM NorthLins Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated NOR 2099 174 1459 186 346 72 314 186 Number of Schools 11 1 7 1 2 1 1 1

27 2.3 Brigg and District Planning area 2.3.5 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 60 60% 2010/16 historic growth 50% 2010/16 Historic growth rate % 4240% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of 40 40% pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school

25 23 24 places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 18 15% 20 15% 13 20% 9 10% 5% 5%  There has been a net increase of 33 pupils, which represents a 1.6% growth of pupil numbers within this planning area. 0 0%  This percentage growth rate is the second lowest in the 8 planning areas. -3 -1%  The schools with biggest percentage increase are Hibaldstow (40%) and Worlaby -20 -13% -13% -20% (50%).  The schools with the biggest percentage decrease are Broughton, Messingham and

-40 -34 -36 -40% South Ferriby. -39%

-48 -60 -60% Brigg Brou'ton H'stow Kirton Mes'ham St Mary's Scawby St Feriby St. B'bas Worlaby W. St Mary's

2.3.6 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 80% 70% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which 60%

50% establishments have exceeded their PANs for the intake year and/or exceeded their

40% schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is:

30% 20%  intake year  capacity = 6 schools / acadamies St Barnabas Intake Year Over PAN Over Year Intake Scawby 10%  intake year  capacity = 1 schools / acadamies 0% Hibaldstow  intake year  capacity = 2 schools / acadamies -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% -10%  intake year  capacity = 2 schools / acadamies Kirton -20% St Mary's Worlaby Broughton -30% Wrawby St Marys Brigg This summary shows that there is currently pressure for spaces in a number of schools. Messingham -40% Hibaldstow and St Barnabas have exceeded both their PAN and total capacity; and St -50% Mary’s and Worlaby have exceeded their PAN. However, Hibaldstow could increase -60% their PAN to take into account the additional classroom.

Sth Ferriby -70% Intake Year Under PAN Under Year Intake -80% Capacity under Capacity Over

28 2.3 Brigg and District Planning area 2.3.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 2600

2400 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 2200

 Demand for school places is projected to peak in 2017, which will be followed by a 2225

2000 2179

2148 slight decline until 2021.

2137

2099

2098

2089

2088

2078

2077

2067

2066 2047

2043  There are currently 15 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning

2014

2001 1990

1800 1980 1963 applications that could yield approximately 345 additional primary school places

1600 (see orange dotted line). The housing developments in this area are predominantly around Brigg and Kirton, with a small development in Hibaldstow. 1400 These housing developments will create localised pressure on individual schools.  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decline Number on Roll (NOR) / Projections 1200 Est. number of houses planned by -119 pupils or by -5.7%. <--January school census projections / rollling average --> Capacity @ 2016  Taking into account pupil projections and estimated housing growth, this planning

1000 area has sufficient overall space.

2006 2010 2011 2012 2016 2017 2018 2021 2022 2023 2008 2009 2013 2014 2015 2019 2020 2024 2007

2.2.8 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 400

350 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

300 333

321  Demand shows a number of peaks and troughs for reception places. It is anticipated

304

299 299

250 296

286 282

282 that the demand will reach its peak in 2017 and then decline 41 places by 2018.

275

268

264

259 259

258

257 257

253 Thereafter demand for reception places will remain below 260. 200  There are 15 approved strategic housing allocations / planning applications which

150 could generate additional demand for 50 reception places.  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decrease 100 by an average of 1 pupil per year. Number on Roll (NOR Rec)  On 2016 national offer day there were 47 surplus places available for first 50 Est. number of houses planned admissions and 99% of applicants received their highest preference school. PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2006 2007 2010 2013 2014 2016 2017 2020 2023 2024 2009 2011 2012 2015 2018 2019 2021 2022 2008

29 2.4 Barton Town Planning area rton Town planning area

2.4.1 About the planning area: Barton Town is a northern planning area overlooking the River Humber. It shares internal borders with Barton District and Brigg and District planning areas.

The planning area covers 30km2, making it the 3th smallest primary planning area in North Lincolnshire (8th being the largest). The estimated population is 11,400 and there are 5,400 dwelling. There are 3 schools in the planning area and as at January 2016 there were 848 pupils one roll.

Key population facts Population density: The area is the 6th (out of 8) most densely populated with 28.3 pupils per 1km2 (avg 15.8:1km2).  Pupils per population: 1 out of every 13.4 residents is a primary aged pupil (NL average = 12.9). Pupils per dwelling: There is 1 pupil for every 6.3 dwellings (NL average is 5.55).  Ethnicity: 7% of the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group (NL 15%).  Deprivation: The planning area is, on average, the 3rd least deprived (out of 8).

Demand: The demand for school places is expected to show an average decline over the next 4 years. There are a number of strategic housing allocations which could yield up to 137 places over the next 8 years. From an operational perspective there are individual year groups that are oversubscribed. Supply: Whilst the projections show there is sufficient capacity to meet overall demand, individual year groups are oversubscribed and the housing developments will put further pressure across the planning area’s estate. 2.4.2 Planning area summary: 30 2.4 Barton Town Planning area

The planning area has 3 primary schools with a combined roll of 848 pupils. The aggregated distribution of pupils across the year groups is: 15.9% (Rec); 13.8% (Y1); 15.3% (Y2); 14.6% (Y3); 14.3% (Y4); 13.2% (Y5) and 12.9% (Y6). The schools have a total combined surplus capacity of -82 places and -21 places in the reception years. On national offer day 2016, 99% of parents requesting schools in this planning area received their first preference; and all parents in the catchment area who named the school at their first preference were offered a place.

Profile of Schools within planning area School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

lodged lodged

Size: Size:

site early years early site

- Capacity+/

made offers

Bowmandale P C N 48/62 301 350 50 8% 50 98% 0 3 27 8 12 0 0 1 0 -49

Castledyke P C Y 45/62 284 300 43 3% 25 100% 0 1 21 3 0 0 0 0 -18 -16

Total ------848 930 133 7% 112 99% 0 4 79 15 14 0 0 0 -21 -82 Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

The table below shows the diversity of provision with the Barton Town planning area. One school is affiliated to a diocesan body. All schools are maintained.

Diversity of provision within planning area

Lincoln Lincoln

olic Trust olic

Number of / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMAT NorthLins Cath MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated NOR 848 0 848 263 Number of Schools 3 0 1

31 2.4 Barton Town Planning area

2.4.5 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 60 60% 2010/16 historic growth 2010/16 Historic growth rate % This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of 50 50% 45 pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 39 40 40%  There has been a net increase of 102 pupils, which represents a 13.7% growth of 30 30% pupil numbers within this planning area.  This percentage growth is the second highest in the 8 planning areas across North 19% 20 18 20% Lincolnshire. 15%  All schools in Barton have experience growth from 2010 to 2016. Castledyke Primary 10 7% 10% School has seen the largest growth rate and the largest increase in actual pupil numbers.

0 0%

-10 -10% Barton St Peters Bowmandale Castledyke

2.4.6 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 50%

40% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PAN for the intake year and/or exceeded the 30% schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is:

20%

Barton St Peters  intake year  capacity = 1 schools / acadamies Intake Year Over PAN Over IntakeYear 10%  intake year  capacity = 1 schools / acadamies  intake year  capacity = 1 schools / acadamies Castledyke

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -40% -50% intake year  capacity = 1 schools / acadamies

Bowmandale -10% As can be seen from this summary, there are no concerns regarding recent admissions

-20% into the intake year or the schools overall capacity.

-30%

-40% Intake Year Under PAN Under Year Intake -50% Capacity under Capacity Over

32 2.4 Barton Town Planning area

2.4.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 1000

900 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

800

867 848

847

839

838 838

834

826

825

823

810

807 805

700 791

783 780

773  Demand for school places has steadily risen from 2010 and is projected to peak in

762 746 600 2018 and then drop slightly over the next 3 years.  There are 9 strategic housing allocations / approved applications that could yield 500 up to 137 places (see orange dotted line). 400  As at January 2016 there were -82 surplus places in this planning area  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decline 300 by -23 pupils or by -2.7%. Number on Roll (NOR) / Projections 200 Est. number of houses planned  The anticipated demand for places is well below the combined capacities for the Capacity @ 2016 100 schools within this planning area. <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2006 2008 2010 2011 2013 2015 2016 2018 2020 2023 2009 2012 2014 2017 2019 2021 2022 2024 2007

2.4.8 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 160

140 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the

intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 138

120 135

134

127 123

122  Demand for school from 2013 to 2016 has seen a number of peaks and troughs.

119

118 115

100 115

112 112

112 This trend for low / high demand looks set to continue until 2020.

109

107 97 100  80 The peak in 2018 will be addressed by the expansion of Barton St Peter’s and the use 90 of FAP. 60  There are 9 strategic housing allocations / approved applications that could increase

Number on Roll (NOR Rec) demand for reception places by 19 places (see orange dotted line). 40 Est. number of houses planned  As at January 2016 there were -21 surplus places for the reception.  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decrease 20 PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average --> by an average of -5 pupils per year or -3.7%. 0  The anticipated demand for places is below the combined capacities for the schools

within this planning area. On the 2016 national offer day there was 15% surplus

2006 2007 2008 2009 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 places available for reception admissions within the planning area and 99% of applicants received their first preference.

33 2.5 Burton and Winterton Planning Area ea

2.5.1 About the planning area: This planning area faces the River Humber and shares internal borders with Barton Town, Barton District, Scunthorpe North and the Isle North. This planning area covers 136km2, making it the 5th (out of 8) largest primary planning area in North Lincolnshire. The estimated population is 13,400 and there are 4,800 dwelling. There are 5 schools in the planning area and as at January 2016 there were 769 pupils on roll.

Key population facts Population density: The area is the 2nd (out of 8) least densely populated with 5.7 pupils per 1km2 (avg 15.8:1km2).  Pupils per population: 1 out of every 17.4 residents is a primary aged pupil (NL average = 12.9). Pupils per dwelling: There is 1 pupil for every 6.1 dwellings (NL average is 5.55).  Ethnicity: 5% of the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group (NL 15%).  Deprivation: The planning area is, on average, the 6th least deprived (out of 8).

Demand: Whilst the projections show there is sufficient capacity to meet demand based on overall capacity, there is a spike in demand for reception places in 2017 and some schools in this rural area that may face

pressures. There are currently 5 strategic housing allocations / approved applications that could yield an additional 49 places. .

Supply & actions required Overall there is sufficient supply to meet future demand. Where schools fill up to PAN and children move into the catchment area, they may be considered for a place at their local school through FAP.

34 2.5 Burton and Winterton Planning Area

2.5.1 Planning area summary Burton and Winterton planning area has 5 primary schools with a combined roll of 769 pupils. The distribution of pupils across the year groups is 14.0% (Rec); 13.7% (Y1); 15.7% (Y2); 15.7% (Y3); 13.1%(Y4) 14.3%(Y5); 13.4% (Y6). Winterton Infant School and Winterton Junior School have both exceeded their PANs. Schools within the planning area have a total combined surplus capacity of -71 places but are +5 places over in the reception years. On national offer day 2016, 97% of parents requesting schools in this planning area received their first preference; and all parents living in a school’s catchment area who named the school at their first preference were offered a place.

2.5.2 Profile of Schools within planning area School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

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Size: Size:

refs % refs

site early years early site

- Capacity+/

made offers

Type Status On provision School smallest = 1 16 NORJan Capacity PAN Ethnic % minority P 1st offered SEN CIN Catch Siblings Distance LA bY Offer by Offer OAA Appeals by07/16 +/ Reception ` Alkborough Primary School P C Y 11/62 82 84 12 5% 7 100% 0 0 6 0 1 0 0 0 -5 -2 Burton-upon-Stather Primary P C Y 34/62 207 210 30 7% 30 91% 1 0 24 4 1 0 0 1 0 -3 Winteringham Primary School P C N 13/62 94 102 14 1% 12 100% 0 0 8 2 2 0 0 0 -2 -8 Winterton CE Infant School I VC Y 27/62 179 180 60 6% 68 100% 0 2 63 0 3 0 0 0 8 -1 Winterton Junior School J C N 34/62 207 264 66 5% 70 100% 1 0 69 0 0 0 0 0 4 -57

Total ------769 840 182 5% 187 97% 2 2 170 6 7 0 0 1 +5 -71 Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

The table below shows the diversity of provision with the Burton and Winterton planning area. All schools are maintained, with a total pupil population 796 pupils and One school is affiliated to the Lincolns CE Diocese.

2.5.3 Diversity of provision within planning area

ins ins

Lincoln Lincoln

Number of / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMAT NorthL Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated NOR 769 0 769 0 0 0 0 0 0 179 0 0 Number of Schools 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

35 2.5 Burton and Winterton Planning Area

2.5.5 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 40 40% 37% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of 30 27 30% pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 22 places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 20 18% 20%

 There has been a net increase of 38 pupils, which represents a 5.2% growth of pupil 10 6 10% 4% 3% 4 numbers within this planning area.  This percentage growth is the 4th lowest areas across North Lincolnshire 0 0%  This planning area’s smallest school, Alkborough, has seen the largest percentage increase in pupil numbers. -10 -10% -9%  By contrast Winterton Junior’s total NOR has decreased by 21 pupils which

-20 -20% represents 9% decline, but this is likely to be offset by a larger year group of 70 -21 pupils transferring from the infant school. -30 -30% 2010/16 historic growth 2010/16 Historic growth rate % -40 -40% Alkborough Burton W'ham Pry Wint Inf Wint Jnr

2.5.6 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 40% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which 30% establishments have exceeded their PAN for the intake year and/or exceeded the schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is: 20%

 Intake year  Capacity = 4 Schools Intake PAN Over Year 10%  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools   Burton Intake year Capacity = 0 Schools 0%  Intake year  Capacity = 1 Schools -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Winterton Infants -10% As can be seen from this summary, Burton had exceeded its PAN. Winterton Junior Alkborough -20% Winteringham

-30% Intake Year Under PAN Intake Under Year

-40% Capacity under Capacity Over

36 2.5 Burton and Winterton Planning Area

2.5.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 900 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 800

801

791

789 786

700 785  Demand for school places is projected to peak in 2017, which will then be

772

769

768

767

764

762

750

748

742

739 731

719 followed by a slight decline until 2021. 600 699  There are currently 5 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning 500 applications that could yield approximately 49 additional. primary school places (see orange dotted line). 400  Taking into account pupil projections and estimated housing growth, capacity is

300 not likely to be exceeded.  As at January 2016 there were -71 surplus places in this planning area. 200  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decline Number on Roll (NOR) / Projections by -2 pupils or by -0.3%, compared with 2016. 100 Est. number of houses planned Capacity @ 2016 <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2022 2023 2024 2006

2.5.8 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 140 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 120

 Demand for school places is projected to peak in 2017, which will be followed by a

120

118 117

100 113 slight decline of 21 pupils. Thereafter demand for reception will be between 96 109

108 and 95.

103

96 96 96

95 95 95 95  91 There are currently 5 approved planning applications that could yield

80 90 86

83 approximately 7 additional reception school places per annum (see orange dotted

60 line).  Taking into account pupil projections and estimated housing growth, it is unlikely that the combined PAN for this planning area will be exceeded. 40  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to Number on Roll (NOR Rec) decrease by an average of 2 pupils per year or 1.8%, compared with the 2016 20 Est. number of houses planned PANs NOR in reception, which used as the baseline. <--January school census projections / rollling average -->  On the 2016 national offer day 97% of applicants received their first preference.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2006

37 2.6 Isle North Planning Area

2.6.1 About the planning area: This planning area is situated in the north west part of North Lincolnshire, on the Isle of Axholme. It borders with Doncaster and the River Humber. This planning area covers 95km2, making it the 4th (out of 8) smallest primary planning area in North Lincolnshire. The estimated population is 8,300 and there are 3,650 dwellings. There are 5 schools in the planning area and as at January 2016 there were 620 pupils on roll.

Key population facts Population density: The area is the 3rd least densely populated with 6.5 pupils per 1km2 (avg 15.8:1km2).  Pupils per population: 1 out of every 13.4 residents is a primary aged pupil (NL average = 12.9). Pupils per dwelling: There is 1 pupil for every 5.9 dwellings (NL average is 5.55).  Ethnicity: 7% of the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group (NL 15%).  Deprivation: The planning area is, on average, the 4th most deprived (1 = highest deprivation).

Demand: There are 3 strategic housing allocations /planning application, which could yield an additional 30 places. However, there is sufficient capacity to meet anticipated numbers.

Supply: Supply can adequately meed demand.

38 2.6 Isle North Planning Area 2.6.2 Planning area summary

The Isle North planning area has 5 primary schools with a combined roll of 620 pupils. The aggregated distribution of pupils across the year groups is 12.1% (Rec); 14.4% (Y1); 6.6% (Y2); 16.0% (Y3); 14.0% (Y4) 14.2% (Y5) 2.7% (Y6). The schools have a total combined surplus capacity of -96 places overall and -21 spare places in the reception years. On national offer day 2016, 90% of parents requesting a school in this planning area received their first preference. All parents requesting a place for their catchment school were successful.

2.6.3 Profile of Schools within planning area School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

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atch

Type Status On provision School smallest = 1 16 NORJan Capacity PAN Ethnic % minority O % Prefs 1st offered SEN CIN C Siblings Distance LA bY Offer by Offer OAA Appeals by07/16 +/ Reception Capacity+/ Althorpe & Keadby Primary P C Y 30/62 195 210 30 6% 19 100% 30 0 0 17 2 0 0 0 -11 -15 Crowle Primary Academy P A Y 37/62 219 259 37 2% 29 100% 37 0 0 25 0 0 4 1 -8 -40 Eastoft CE Primary School P VA Y 5/62 54 77 11 0% 8 100% 11 1 0 1 3 3 0 0 -3 -23 Luddington and Garthorpe P C Y 4/62 49 70 10 2% 11 100% 10 0 0 9 1 1 0 0 1 -21 Saint Norbert's Catholic P A Y 16/62 103 100 15 22% 15 65% 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3 0 3 Total 620 716 103 7% 82 90% 103 1 0 52 6 4 4 4 -21 -96 Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

The table below shows the diversity of provision with the Isle North planning area. 48% of the pupil population go to a maintained school and 52% attend a school affiliated to a local diocesan body Crowle Primary School is only one of two converter academies in North Lincolnshire’s in the primary sector.

2.6.4 Diversity of provision within planning area

of of

Lincoln Lincoln

Number / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMAT NorthLins Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated NOR 620 0 298 103 219 54 103 Number of Schools 5 3 1 1 1 1

39 2.6 Isle North Planning Area 2.6.5 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 30 30% 28 This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school

20 20% places within this planning area. The key points to note from the graph are: 16.8%  There has been a net increase of 23 pupils, which represents a 3.9% growth of pupil 10 10% numbers within this planning area. 3.8% rd 2  This percentage growth is the 3 lowest compared with the 8 planning areas.  Althorpe and Keadby has seen the biggest growth in pupil numbers. The school has 0 0% an additional 28 pupils on roll by 2016, which represents 16.8% increase. -1 -0.5% -3 -3 -2.8%  The other schools have seen a marginal fluctuation in growth and decline. -5.8% -10 -10%

-20 -20%

2010/16 historic growth 2010/16 Historic growth rate % -30 -30% Althorpe & K Crowle Eastoft Luddington St Norbert's

2.6.6 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PAN for the intake year and/or exceeded the schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is: 40%

 Intake year  Capacity = 4 Schools

20%  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools Intake Year Over PAN Over IntakeYear  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools  Intake year  Capacity = 1 Schools

Althorpe & Keadby 0% St Norberts

-60% -30% 0% 30% 60% -50% -40% -20% -10% 10% 20% 40% 50% As can be seen from this summary, no schools have exceeded their PAN and one school has exceeded its overall capacity. -20%

-40% Crowle Luddington & Garthorpe Intake Year Under PAN Under Year Intake Eastoft -60% Capacity under Capacity Over

40 2.6 Isle North Planning Area 2.6.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 800 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 700 

600 Demand for school places is projected to peak in 2018, which will be followed by a

640

635 632

631 slight decline over the next few years.

623

620

618

613

608

607

604

602

598

597

595

591 590 590  There are currently 3 approved planning applications that could yield 500 571 approximately 30 additional primary school places (see orange dotted line). 400  Taking into account pupil projections and estimated housing growth, capacity is not likely to be exceeded. 300  As at January 2016 there were -96 surplus places (13%) in this planning area.  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decline 200 Number on Roll (NOR) / Projections by -12 pupils or by 1.9%. Est. number of houses planned  The anticipated demand for places is well below the combined capacities for the 100 Capacity @ 2016 <--January school census projections / rollling average --> schools within this planning area.

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2007

2.6.8 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 120 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 100

 Demand for school places is projected to drop in 2019 for one year and then rises

96 93

80 back to the previous level. In 2019 the birth rate data for one school’s catchment is

84 84 84

84 less than 50% of its typical intake.

81 81 81

76 75 74  There are currently 3 approved planning applications that could yield demand for

60 approximately 4 additional reception school places per year (see orange dotted line). 64  Taking into account pupil projections and estimated housing growth, it is unlikely 40 that the combined PAN for this planning area will be exceeded. Number on Roll (NOR Rec)  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase by 20 Est. number of houses planned an average of 1 pupils per year or 1.3%. PANs  On the 2016 national offer day there was 20% surplus places available for reception <--January school census projections / rollling average --> 0 admissions within the planning area and 90% of applicants received their first

preference.

2007 2009 2011 2013 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2006

41 2.7 Isle South Planning Area

Isle South planning area 2.7.1 About the planning area:

This planning area is to the south west part of North Lincolnshire, on the Isle of Axholme. This planning area shares its external borders with Doncaster Council, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire. This planning area covers 140km2 , making it the 3rd (out of 8) largest primary planning area in North Lincolnshire. The estimated population is 14,600 and there are 6,500 dwellings. There are 7 schools in the planning area and as at January 2016 there were 1002 pupils one roll.

Key population facts Population density: The area is the 4th least densely populated with 7.2 pupils per 1km2 (avg 15.8:1km2).  Pupils per population: 1 out of every 14.5 residents is a primary aged pupil (NL average = 12.9). Pupils per dwelling: There is 1 pupil for every 6.4 dwellings (NL average is 5.55).  Ethnicity: 5% of the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group (NL 15%).  Deprivation: The planning area is, on average, the 8th least deprived (out of 8).

Demand: Demand for school places is projected to continue to decline until 2021. There are no approved planning applications for this planning area.

Supply & Actions: Supply can adequately meet demand.

42 2.7 Isle South Planning Area

2.7.2 Planning area summary The Isle South planning area has 7 primary schools with a combined roll of 1002 pupils. The aggregated distribution of pupils across the year groups is 12.6% (Rec); 13.7% (Y1); 14.6% (Y2); 14.3% (Y3); 15.1% (Y4); 14.9% (Y5); 15.0% (Y6). The schools have a total combined surplus capacity of -166 places and -38 places in the reception years. On national offer day 2016, 100% of parents in this planning area received their first preference.

2.7.3 Profile of Schools within planning area School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

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Capacity+/

Type Status On provision School smallest = 1 16 NORJan Capacity PAN Ethnic % minority O % Prefs 1st offered SEN CIC Catch Siblings Distance LA bY Offer by Offer OAA Appeals by07/16 +/ Reception ` Belton All Saints CE P VC Y 33/62 201 224 32 4% 25 100% 0 0 23 2 0 0 0 0 -7 -23 Epworth Primary P A Y 44/62 283 315 45 7% 38 100% 0 1 30 1 6 0 0 0 -7 -32 Haxey CE P VC N 26/62 178 210 30 5% 21 100% 0 0 15 4 2 0 0 0 -9 -32 St. Martin's CE (Fed) P VA Y 12/62 86 105 15 3% 17 100% 0 0 14 1 2 0 0 0 2 -19 West Butterwick CE (Fed) P VC Y 2/62 45 52 7 4% 3 100% 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -7 Westwoodside CE P A Y 23/62 170 210 30 8% 19 100% 0 0 16 1 2 0 0 0 -11 -40 Wroot Travis CE Charity P VC Y 1/62 39 52 7 0% 5 100% 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 -2 -13

Total ------1002 1168 166 5% 128 100% 1 1 103 11 12 0 0 0 -38 -166 Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

The table below shows the diversity of provision with the Isle South planning area. Epworth Primary School is part of the South Axholme Academy Trust and Westwoodside CE Primary School is one of only two primary converter academies. St Martin’s CE Primary School and West Butterwick CE Primary Schools are federated with an executive head teacher and single governing body.

2.7.4 Diversity of provision within planning area

m m

Lincoln Lincoln

Number of / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMAT NorthLins Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingha RC Dioceses affiliated NOR 1002 131 549 283 170 719 Number of Schools 7 2 5 1 1 6

43 2.7 Isle South Planning Area

2.7.5 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 30 50% 26 This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of 39% 40% pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 20 places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 30% 11  There has been a net decrease of 16 pupils, which represents a 1.6% of pupil 20% 10 10% numbers within this planning area. 10%  This percentage growth is the lowest across North Lincolnshire’s primary planning 2 2% areas. It is the only planning area with negative growth. 0 0%  Wroot Travis School has experience the highest percentage increase of 39% (11 -5% -10% pupils), and Epworth Academy experienced the biggest increase in pupil numbers of -7% -5 -10% 26 (10% of the school’s population). -10 -13% -11 -20%  By contrast Westwoodside Acadamy experienced a decline of 25 pupils and Haxey -14 -30% experienced decline of 14 pupils. -20

2010/16 historic growth -40% 2010/16 Historic growth rate % -25 -30 -50% Belton Epworth Haxey CE St Martins W Butterwick Westwood Wroot Travis

2.7.6 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 50% Wroot 40% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PAN for the intake year and/or exceeded the 30% schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is:

Intake Year Over Year Intake 20%  Intake year  Capacity = 6 Schools 10%  Intake year  Capacity = 1 Schools

West Butterwick  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -50%  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools

-10% St Martins Epwoth As can be seen from this summary, Wroot Travis Charity Primary School had exceeded -20% its PAN by 43%. However, as Wroot is the second smallest school, the percentage increase only related to 3 pupils. -30% West Woodside -40% Haxey

Belton Intake Year Under IntakeYear -50% Capacity under Capacity Over

44 2.7 Isle South Planning Area

2.7.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers on roll What does the data tell us? 1400 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 1200  Demand for school places is projected to continue to decline until 2021. 1000  There are no approved planning applications for this planning area.

1084  As at January 2016 there were -166 surplus places in this planning area

1045

1029

1028 1028

1021

1019

1018

1010

970

1002 1002

800 953  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decline

915

898

884

882 877

842 by 120 pupils or by -12%. 600  The anticipated demand for places is well below the combined capacities for the schools within this planning area. 400

Number on Roll (NOR) / Projections 200 Projected housing Capacity @ 2016 Capacity @ 2016 <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2009 2014 2021 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2023 2024 2006

2.7.8 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 200 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 180

160  Demand for reception places will peak in 2018 to 128 pupils, and then drop to

140 between 112-105 for the remaining periods.

151 151

150  There are no strategic housing allocations or approved applications that could 145 120 143

135 influence demand.

133

132

128

127 126

100  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decrease

118

113

112

109 108

107 by an average of 3 pupils per year or 2.3%.

105 105 80  The anticipated demand for places is below the combined capacities for the schools 60 within this planning area.  On the 2016 national offer day there was 23% surplus places available for reception 40 admissions within the planning area and 100% of applicants received their first Number on Roll (NOR Rec) 20 Est. number of houses planned preference. PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2006 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2024 2008 2009 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2023 2007

45 2.8 Scunthorpe North Planning Area

Scunthorpe North planning area 2.8.1 About the planning area: Scunthorpe is North Lincolnshire’s principal town and is divided into two areas (north and south). This planning area covers 27km2, making it the 8th (out of 8) smallest. The estimated population is 27,900 and there are 11,400 dwellings. There are 6 schools in the planning area and as at January 2016 there were 2437 pupils’ on roll.

Key population facts Population density: The area is the 7th (out of 8) most densely populated with 90.3 pupils per 1km2 (avg 15.8:1km2).  Pupils per population: 1 out of every 11.4 residents is a primary aged pupil (NL average = 12.9). Pupils per dwelling: There is 1 pupil for every 4.6 dwellings (NL average is 5.55).  Ethnicity: 44% of the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group (NL 15%).  Deprivation: The planning area is, on average, the most deprived (out of 8).

Demand: The projections show there is sufficient capacity to meet demand based on overall capacity. However, from an operational perspective there is not a sufficient buffer to allow for pupil movement and variations between numbers in

each cohort. There are 16 strategic housing allocations that could yield an additional 756 places. Additionally, there is a major housing development (6000 houses) planned for the outskirts of Scunthorpe which may impact on demand

Supply: The anticipated demand for places is very close to the total capacities for the schools within this planning area, not taking into account possible housing developments or the neighbouring Lincolnshire Lakes Development.

The spare places are to to the North of the planning area, leaving insufficient operating capacity to the central and southern area that borders the Scunthorpe south planning areas (see 2.10.1).

46 2.8 Scunthorpe North Planning Area

2.8.2 Planning area summary Scunthorpe North planning area has 6 primary schools with a combined roll of 2437 pupils. The distribution of pupils across the year groups is: 15.7% (Rec), 14.2% (Y1), 14.2% (Y2), 3.8% (Y3), 14.0% (Y4), 13.6% (Y5) and 4.4% (Y6). The schools have a total combined surplus capacity of -84 places and -10 places in the reception years. On national offer day 2016, 98% of parents requesting a school in this planning area received their first preference; and all parents living in the schools’ catchment areas who named the school at their first preference were offered a place.

2.8.3 Profile of Schools within planning area

School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

lodged lodged

ty+/

Size: Size:

site early years early site

- Capaci

made offers

Type Status On provision School smallest = 1 16 NORJan Capacity PAN Ethnic % minority % Prefs 1st offered SEN CIN Catch Siblings Distance LA bY Offer by Offer OAA Appeals by07/16 +/ Reception ` Berkeley P C Y 61/62 593 630 90 9% 90 98% 1 1 52 15 21 0 0 0 0 -37 Crosby P C Y 59/62 462 476 68 65% 53 100% 0 1 31 10 7 4 0 0 -15 -14 Gunness and Burringham CE P VC Y 15/62 97 99 14 4% 19 100% 0 0 13 5 1 0 0 0 +5 -2 Oasis Academy Henderson P A Y 62/62 608 630 90 39% 90 97% 1 1 45 12 31 0 0 1 0 -22 Saint Augustine Webster P A Y 57/62 413 420 60 57% 60 100% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 60 n/a 0 -7 Scunthorpe CE P VC Y 43/62 264 266 38 75% 38 93% 0 0 25 7 6 0 0 1 0 -2

Total ------2437 2521 360 44% 350 98% 2 3 166 49 66 4 60 -10 -84 Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

The table below shows the diversity of provision with Scunthorpe North planning area. Four schools are maintained, with a total pupil population of 1,416 and One school is part of North Lincolnshire Catholic Academy Trust .

2.8.4 Diversity of provision within planning area

Lincol

Number of / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMAT NorthLins Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated NOR 2437 0 1416 413 608 361 413 Number of Schools 6 0 4 1 1 2 1

47 2.8 Scunthorpe North Planning Area

2.8.5 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of 87 90 90% pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 2010/16 historic growth 70 70% 2010/16 Historic growth rate %  There has been a net increase of 122 pupils, which represents a 5.3% growth of pupil numbers within this planning area. 50 50%  This planning area has the second highest growth across North Lincolnshire. 38  Scunthorpe CE Primary School and Oasis Henderson Avenue have seen the greatest 30 30% growth in pupil numbers, with a total of 125 pupils. 17% 17% 15 8 9% 10 10% 3%

-10 -3% -3% -10%

-12 -14

-30 -30% Berkeley Crosby Gunness Oasis Hend St August Scunthorpe

2.8.6 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 50% Scunthorpe CE This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which

40% establishments have exceeded their PAN for the intake year and/or exceeded the schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is: 30% Crosby

Henderson Avenue 20%  Intake year  Capacity = 2 Schools Intake Year Over PAN Over Year Intake Intake year Capacity = 3 Schools 10%   St Augustine  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools -10% Berkeley

-20% No school has exceeded its overall capacity. Scunthorpe CE Primary PAN has been Gunness & Burringham exceeded by 47%, which is due to the admission of a ‘bulge cohort’. -30%

-40% Intake Year Under IntakeYear -50% Capacity under Capacity Over

48 2.8 Scunthorpe North Planning Area

2.8.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 3500 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 3000  Demand for school places is set to rise until 2021. 2500  There are currently 16 strategic housing allocations / planning applications that

could yield approximately 756 additional primary school places (see orange

2526

2506

2502

2501

2495

2480

2472

2444 2437

2000 2387 2332

2331 dotted line).

2320 2320

2315

2269

2266 2240 2226  If the developments commence, the likely yield from housing will mean that 1500 capacity will be exceeded.  As at January 2016 there were -85 / (-3.3%) surplus places in this planning area. 1000 Number on Roll (NOR) / Projections  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase Est. number of houses planned (not inc Lincs Lakes) by 65 pupils or by 2.7%. Capacity @ 2016 500  The anticipated demand for places is very close to the total capacities for the <--January school census projections / rollling average --> schools within this planning area, not taking into account possible housing

0 developments or the neighbouring Lincolnshire Lakes Development.

2006 2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2007

2.8.8 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 500 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the 450 intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

400  Demand for school places peaked in 2016, which will be followed by a decline until

350 2019. Thereafter, demand for reception places will range between 350 and 360.

382 360

360 The supply and demand are in equilibrium during 2020 to 2021.

356

352 352 352

351 350

300 350

342

341

339

336 336 333 329  There are currently 16 strategic housing allocations / planning applications that 250 312 294 could yield approximately 108 additional reception school places per annum (see

200 orange dotted line). Taking into account pupil projections and estimated housing growth, it is likely that the combined PAN for this planning area will not be sufficient 150 to meet projected housing yields. 100 Number on Roll (NOR Rec)  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll in reception is expected Est. number of houses planned (not inc Lincs Lakes) to decrease by an average of -8 pupils (2%) per year. 50 PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average  On the 2016 national offer day there was 2.8% surplus places available for reception

0 --> admissions and 98% of applicants received their first preference.

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2006

49 2.9 Scunthorpe South Planning area

Scunthorpe South planning area 2.9.1 About the planning area: Scunthorpe is the principle town in North Lincolnshire and it is situated centrally within the county. It has two planning areas (north and south). This planning area covers 29km2, making it the 7th (out of 8) smallest. The estimated population is 57,600 and there are 25,300 dwellings. There are 17 schools in the planning area and as at January 2016 there were 4937 pupils on roll.

Key population facts Population density: The area is the 8th (out of 8) most densely populated with 170.2 pupils per 1km2 (avg 15.8:1km2).  Pupils per population: 1 out of every 11.6 residents is a primary aged pupil (NL average = 12.9). Pupils per dwelling: There is 1 pupil for every 5.1 dwellings (NL average is 5.55).  Ethnicity: 11% of the pupil population is from an ethnic minority group (NL 15%).  Deprivation: The planning area is, on average, the 2nd most deprived (out of 8).

each cohort. There are 23 strategic housing allocations / approved application that could potentially yield an additional demand for 321 pupil places. Additionally, there is a major housing development (6000 houses) planned for the outskirts of Scunthorpe which may impact on demand

Supply: The spare places are to to the west of the planning area, leaving insufficient operating capacity to the central and northern area that borders the Scunthorpe north planning areas (see 2.10.1). Lakeside, on the eastern side of the planning area, is still under development.

50 2.9 Scunthorpe South Planning area

2.9.2 Planning area summary Scunthorpe South planning area has 17 primary schools with a combined roll of 4937 pupils. The distribution of pupils across the year groups is: 14.7% (Rec); 14.6% (Y1); 15.2% (Y2); 13.4% (Y3); 14.6% (Y4); 13.8% (Y5); 13.8% (Y6). The schools have a total combined surplus capacity of -262 places and -48 places in the reception years. On national offer day 2016, 90% of parents in this planning area received their first preference; and all parents in the catchment area who named the school at their first preference were offered a place.

2.9.3 Profile of Schools within planning area

School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

site early site years

offers made

Type Status On provision School Size: 1 = smallest NORJan 16 Capacity PAN % Ethnic minority 1stPrefs % offered SEN CIN Catchcriterion Siblings Distance Offer bY LA Offer by OAA Appealslodged by 07/16 Reception+/ `Capacity+/ Bottesford Infant I C Y 36/62 211 210 70 5% 70 96% 2 5 79 5 22 6 0 0 0 1 Bottesford Junior J C N 41/62 256 240 64 6% 64 100% 1 2 55 2 0 0 0 3 0 16 Brumby J C N 60/62 470 480 120 12% 119 100% 0 0 14 1 9 1 0 0 -1 -10 Bushfield Road I C Y 25/62 175 180 60 14% 60 66% 0 1 43 7 16 5 0 11 0 -5 Enderby Road I C Y 14/62 95 120 40 4% 25 100% 0 4 37 5 14 0 0 0 -15 -25 Frodingham I C Y 29/62 194 216 72 20% 72 98% 0 0 18 3 13 3 0 3 0 -22 Holme Valley P C N 54/62 374 420 60 6% 60 100% 1 1 50 8 0 0 0 0 0 -46 Leys Farm J C N 21/62 156 180 45 7% 37 100% 0 3 35 4 3 0 0 0 -8 -24 Lincoln Gardens P C Y 58/62 445 450 60 11% 60 65% 0 1 32 5 1 2 0 11 0 -5 Oakfield P C N 49/62 307 315 45 7% 45 86% 0 0 37 4 10 5 0 2 0 -8 Oasis Academy Parkwood P A Y 47/62 299 350 60 9% 41 100% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 43 n/a -19 -51 Priory Lane Community (Fed) P C Y 55/62 389 420 60 13% 56 100% 0 1 28 4 10 1 0 0 -4 -31 Saint Bernadette's Catholic P A Y 46/62 291 280 40 33% 43 100% 0 1 24 10 8 7 0 5 3 11 St Peter and St Paul CE P T Y 38/62 233 243 30 9% 44 83% 0 1 20 6 18 0 0 0 14 -10 The Grange P C Y 56/62 390 420 60 11% 50 100% 0 0 12 11 17 4 0 0 -10 -30 Westcliffe (Fed) P C Y 50/62 311 315 45 12% 45 100% 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 1 0 -4 Willoughby Road P A Y 52/62 341 360 52 11% 44 100% 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 -8 -19 --- 4937 5199 983 11% 935 90% 4 23 559 89 183 34 43 34 -48 -262 Source: Jan 16 Census. Fed = Federated with other schools

The table below shows the diversity of provision with Scunthorpe south planning area. Two schools are affiliated diocesan bodies; two schools are part of a national academy chain, one school is a member of the Catholic MAT. The majority of schools are maintained, with a total pupil population of 4006. Priory Lane Community School and Westcliffe Primary School operate under a hard federation leadership structure.

2.9.4 Diversity of provision within planning area

oln oln

Linc

Number of / schools NOR Federated Maintained Lincoln CEMAT NorthLins Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Oasis Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total CE Sheffield Diocese affiliated Total Nottingham RC Dioceses affiliated NOR 4937 700 4006 291 341 299 233 291 Number of Schools 17 2 14 1 1 1 1 1 51 2.9 Scunthorpe South Planning area

2.9.5 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 233 40% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number 2010/16 historic growth 2010/16 Historic growth rate % 36% of pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for 35% school places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 200 30% 31% 30%  There has been a net increase of 793 pupils, which represents a 19% growth of 150 25% 21% pupil numbers within this planning area.  This percentage growth is the highest in the 8 planning areas across North 17% 20% Lincolnshire. 100 83 87 83 13% 13% 15%  All schools but one experienced growth in pupil numbers. 10% 10% 10%  St Peter and St Paul CE Primary School opened in 2013 therefore a percentage 8% 44 46 10% 50 37 42 6% growth has not been shown on the graph. 6% 5% 6% 26 19 18 17 15 16 20 5%  Four schools have increased by more than 25%. 7 00%  Three schools have increased by more than 80 pupils. St Peter and St Paul CE

0 0% Primary School opened in 2013 and now has 233 pupils on roll.

PrioryL

Lincoln

St St Peter

Bushfiel

Leys Far

SaintBe

Westclif

Oakfield OasisAc

BottsInf

Enderby

Frodingh

Willough

TheGran

BrumbyJ HolmeVa BottsJunr

2.9.6 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PAN for the intake year and/or exceeded the schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is: 40% Oakfield Bushfield St Bernadettes  Intake year  Capacity = 13 Schools Willoughby 20%  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools Grange Intake Year Over PAN Over Year Intake Bottesford Infants St Peter & St P  Intake year  Capacity = 1 Schools Bottesford Jnr  Intake year  Capacity = 3 Schools Holme Valley Lincoln Gardens

-60% -30% 0% 10% 40% -40% -20% -10% 20% 30% 50% 60% -50% As can be seen from this summary: Four schools currently exceed their capacity and one Westcliffe school had exceeded its PAN for reception. Enderby Road -20% Froddingham Priory Brumby Jnr Parkwood -40%

Intake Year Undeer IntakeYear Leys Farm -60% Capacity under Capacity Over

52 2.9 Scunthorpe South Planning area

2.9.7 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 6000 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll Number on Roll (NOR) / Projections in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 5500 Est. number of houses planned (Not inc Lincs Lakes)  As at January 2016 there were -262 (5%) surplus places in this planning area. Capacity @ 2016 However, it should be noted that surplus is not always not located where 5000 demsnd is most needed.

5118 

5085 Demand for school places rises until 2020.

5078

5077

5072

5066

5050 4969

4500 4937  There are 23 strategic housing allocations / approved application (see orange 4827

4731 dotted line) that could potentially yield an additional demand for 321 pupil

4498 places.

4000 4380  If the current housing development come to fruition, additional capacity will be

4249

4152

4144

4102 4100 4096 required.

3500  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase by +181 pupils or by +3.7%. <--January school census projections / rollling average -->  The anticipated demand for places is below the combined capacities for the

3000 schools within this planning area. However, this does not take into account

2006 2007 2008 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2022 2023 2024 2010 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 pressure for places in certain localities.

2.9.8 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in reception What does the data tell us? 900 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the date are: 800

700  As at January 2016 there were -48 (4.8%) surplus reception places in this planning

771 763

725 area.

716

713

704

702

701

699 699 694

600 694 671

667  Demand for reception school places peaks in 2018.It is anticipated that the demand

650 634

500 599 for reception places will exceed the total PAN for this area for 2018. 574 563  There are 23 strategic housing allocations / approved application that could 400 potentially yield an additional demand for 45 reception pupil places.  If the current housing development come to fruition, additional capacity will be 300 required. 200  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to decrease Number on Roll (NOR Rec) by an average of 2 pupils per year. 100 Est. number of houses planned (not inc Lincs Lakes)  Although the anticipated demand for places is below the combined PANs after 2018, PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average 0 --> this does not take into account pressure for places in certain areas (eg the eastern

and central area).

2007 2008 2011 2012 2015 2016 2020 2021 2024 2009 2010 2013 2014 2017 2018 2019 2022 2023 2006

53 2.10 Scunthorpe North and Scunthorpe South adjacency infographic analysis

Schunthorpe North / South adjacency infographic analysis 2.10.1 Infographic showing places available for Sept 2016 intake What does the infographic tell us? This infographic shows the Scunthorpe North and the Scunthorpe South planning areas. Both planning areas have high population densities and given proximities of schools between the north / south boundary, there is natural pupil transition from one planning areas to another.

The demarcation between Scunthorpe North and Scunthorpe South is the railway line running from east to west. However, from a planning perspective, it is acknowledged that where schools places are available within 2 miles, these are considered suitable for meeting demand. Therefore, in order to understand any deficiencies in provision in Scunthorpe, it is helpful to look at Scunthorpe North and Scunthorpe South planning areas together.

The map shows the number of reception places available as at July 2016 for reception places starting in September 2016 (minus equals places available). This maps show a deficiency of places in the Scunthorpe east area, particularly around the Scunthorpe CE Primary, Frodingham Infant and Bushfield Infants.

54 Part 3: the secondary sector Key data on the secondary schools’ estate Population data: historic and projected

Control version 18.08.v1

55 3.1 North Lincolnshire: over view of the secondary school estate and demographics school estate and demographics 3.1.1 North Lincolnshire Secondary Estate Over recent years a significant part of the secondary school estate has been rebuilt under the Building Schools for the Future (BSF) programme. In total £86.9m has been invested to rebuild and modernise the following mainstream schools / academies:  Outwood Academy Brumby  Outwood Academy Foxhills  Melior Community Academy  St Lawrence Academy  St Bede’s Voluntary Academy

For the secondary school estate, there are:

 6 planning areas  3 maintained schools 11 acadamies 8849 pupils on roll 1403 (12%) attending a diocese affiliated establishment  90.4% of parents get their first preference

Demand: The anticipated total number on roll in North Lincolnshire is set to rise from 8849 in 2016 to 9839 in 2023. Inward migration as a result of major housing developments will increase the demand on school places. Currently there are 72 identified strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield a further 1,300+ places. In addition, the Lincolnshire Lakes project may result in 6000+ homes being built, which will impact on local secondary schools.

Supply: Overall the current supply is sufficient to meet the anticipated number on roll for the next five years. However,

there are pressures in certain locations, which are noted in the commentary for each planning area.

56 3.1 North Lincolnshire: over view of the secondary school estate and demographics

3.1.2 An introduction to North Lincolnshire Secondary School estates

As at January 2016, there were 8849 pupils on roll in North Lincolnshire secondary schools and academies. The secondary school aged population in North Lincolnshire is served by 14 schools of which 11 are academies 3 are maintained by the local authority. As can be seen in the tables overleaf, there are a diverse range of providers responsible for running these schools, which includes:

 the Humber University Technical College (HUTC) which opened in September 2015, and operates from a brand new £12m establishment situated in the heart of Scunthorpe;  two Outwood MAT academies;  two SPTA MAT academies;  a Catholic MAT academy;  a local MAT provider (Isle Education Trust) and  four converter academies;

Four schools / academies have sixth forms, which cater for 271 pupils. The HUTC has two intakes one in Y10 and one at post 16 and John Leggott College will be opening its 14-16 academy with effect from September 2016.

The secondary school analysis is based on six planning areas: The Scunthorpe planning area has 5 academies and 1 school that, collectively, provide education for 52% of the secondary aged pupil population; the Brigg planning area has one school and one academy that, collectively, provide education for 15% of the secondary aged pupil population; the Isle planning area has two academies that collectively, provide education for 13% of the secondary aged pupil population; the Baysgarth planning area has one school that provides education for 8% of the secondary aged pupil population; the Winterton and Burton planning area has one academy that provides education for 6% of the secondary aged population and the Kirton planning area also provides education for 6% of the secondary aged population.

Over recent years there has been decrease in demand for school places in the Secondary sector. However, anticipated total number on roll in the secondary sector is anticipated to rise from 2016 onwards; this is as a result of the larger year 6 cohorts transferring to secondary school. Inward migration as a result of major housing developments will also increase the demand on school places. The Lincolnshire Lakes project may result in an additional 6000+ homes being built, and the current plan is to expand the existing secondary school estate to accommodate this anticipated demand.

There are 72 housing allocations / approved applications that could yield an additional 1300+ places. In addition the Lincolnshire Lakes development will create 6000+ new houses that could crate demand for 1,200 places. It is proposed that the demand from the Lincolnshire Lakes development for secondary school places will be met through the expansion of the existing secondary school estate.

57 3.1 North Lincolnshire: over view of the secondary school estate and demographics

3.1.3: Profile of North Lincolnshire’s Secondary School and Academies School characteristics National offer day information Capacity snapshot

(not

- 6 lodged

Size: Size:

ing

site post 16 16 post site

ffers made ffers y07/16

Capacity+/

Type Status On provision School smallest = 1 16 NORJan Capacity includ Form) PAN Ethnic % minority O % Prefs 1st offered SEN CIC Catch Siblings Distance LA bY Offer by Offer OAA Appeals b year Intake ` Scunthorpe Planning area ------80 ---- 4577 5420 1048 11 1008 87% 21 11 590 63 136 48 139 -40 -623 Outwood Academy Brumby 11-16 A N 7/14 627 800 172 10% 157 100% 3 1 73 14 59 7 0 0 -15 -173 Outwood Academy Foxhills 11-16 A N 6/14 532 750 152 25% 128 100% 3 0 106 1 6 12 0 0 -24 -218 Frederick Gough School 11-16 M N 14/14 1229 1220 244 4% 269 81% 7 4 156 40 62 0 0 22 +25 +9 Melior Community College 11-16 A N 9/14 706 900 190 7% 159 100% 0 2 114 5 9 29 0 0 -31 -194 Saint Bede's Catholic School 11-16 A N 8/14 680 700 140 28% 145 99% 2 4 0 0 0 0 139 1 +5 -20 The St Lawrence Academy 11-16 A N 11/14 723 750 150 43% 150 69% 6 0 141 3 0 0 0 13 0 -27 UTC 14-19 A Y 1/14 80 300 150 8% * n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Brigg Planning Area ------128 --- 1242 1580 316 5% 276 100% 4 2 117 42 108 2 0 0 -40 -338 Sir John Nelthorpe School 11-18 VC 65 5/14 529 770 154 6% 140 100% 1 0 61 21 55 2 0 0 -14 -241 The Vale Academy 11-18 A 63 10/14 713 810 162 2% 136 100% 3 2 56 21 53 1 0 0 -26 -97

Barton Planning area (Baysgarth) 11-18 M 31 12/14 754 900 198 3% 142 100% 2 2 123 2 10 3 0 0 -56 -146

The Isle Planning Area ------32 1223 1505 301 3% 262 100% 3 7 189 15 45 3 0 0 -39 -282 The Axholme Academy 11-16 A 32 2/14 424 540 108 3% 114 100% 2 4 63 10 33 2 0 0 +6 -116 South Axholme Academy 11-18 A 0 13/14 799 965 193 2% 148 100% 1 3 126 5 12 1 0 0 -45 -166

Kirton Planning Area (Huntcliff) 11-16 A N 3/14 525 870 174 4% 109 100% 1 2 41 11 54 0 0 0 -65 -345

Winterton (Winterton Academy) 11-16 A N 4/13 528 720 144 5% 113 100% 1 6 94 4 8 0 0 0 -31 -192

Total N/A N/A 271 N/A 8849 10995 2181 11% 1910 32 30 1154 137 361 56 139 0 -271* -1926** *Does not take into account UTC admissions. **Does not include UTC capacity.

3.1.4 Diversity of provision within planning area

/ /

or or

Lincoln

Number of schools academies NOR Federated Maintained Linco CEMAT NorthLins Trust Catholic MAT Local SPTA Outwood UTC Humber Converter Total CEDiocese affiliated Total RC Nottingham Dioceses affiliated NOR 8849 0 2512 0 680 799 1419 1159 80 2200 723 680 Number of schools / academies 14 0 3 0 1 1 2 2 1 4 1 1

58 3.1 North Lincolnshire: over view of the secondary school estate and demographics

3.1.5 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 13000 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in North Lincolnshire. The key points to note from the data are: 12000

11000  The total number of pupils in the secondary sector has declined steadily from its highest point in 2006 (10,558) to the lowest point in 2015 (8,757) representing a

10000 decline of 1801 pupils or 17%. 10,558 10,497  Looking forward, the projections show that growth will continue from 2016 until

9000 10,304

10,053

9,839

9,823

9,714

9,688 9,578

9,559 2023.

9,382

9,312 9,164

8000 9,083

8,933 8,914

8,849  There are 72 housing allocations / approved applications that could yield an 8,757

7000 additional 1300+ places, which does not include the Lincolnshire Lakes development (see orange dotted line). 6000 Total Y7 - 11 (With UTC admissions)  Overall demand for places does not exceed capacity. Total Capacity (With UTC) 5000 Total Capacity (Without UTC)  The UTC adds additional capacity for year 10 to year 11. Proposed Housing <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

4000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2008 2010 2012 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2006

3.1.6 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in Year 7 What does the data tell us? 2600 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in year 7 within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 2400

2200  The total number of pupils admitted has seen a decline from 2007 until 2014.  From 2015 the numbers will, on average, increase from 1674 to 1983. 2000  There are about 72 housing allocations / approved applications that could

significantly increase demand (see orange dotted line).

2,040 2,023

1800 1,997

1,989

1,983 1,960

1,936  Overall demand for places does not exceed capacity.

1,919

1,910

1,900

1,868

1,858 1,849

1600 1,830

1,787

1,750

1,674 1,656 1400 Total Y7 1200 Proposed Housing Total PANS for N Lincs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

1000

2006 2007 2008 2013 2014 2015 2020 2021 2022 2010 2011 2012 2016 2017 2018 2019 2023 2009

59 3.1 North Lincolnshire: over view of the secondary school estate and demographics

3.1.7 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 300 40.0% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (%) of pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (pupils) 30.0% school places within each of the 6 planning areas. The key points to note from the 200 graph are: 20.0% 100 10.0%  Comparing 2010 to 2016, there has been decrease of 1054 (11%) pupils.  All planning areas have experience decline. 0 0.0%  The biggest percentage decreases have been in Kirton (29.1%), and Winterton 26.3% and Barton 12.3%.

-10.0% 3.4% -100 -  Collective these three areas have seen a decline of an extra 510 pupils.

10.9% -20.0%

11.0%

106

12.3%

149 -

-200 154

161 -

- -30.0%

188

216

26.3%

- 29.1%

-300 - -40.0% Scunthorpe Brigg Barton The Isle Kirton Winterton

3.1.8 Pupil population growth: NOR 2016 compared with forecast NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 40% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2016 with the estimated total Projected NOR in 2016 compared with projected NOR in 2020 growth (%) number of pupils on roll in 2020 to determine a forecast for net increase / decrease in

450 502 30% Projected NOR in 2016 compared with projected NOR in 2020 growth (pupils) demand for school places across the 6 planning areas. The key points to note from the data are: 20%

250

11%

11% 132

8% 10%  It is anticipated that there will be a net increase of 684 (8%) pupils.

60 57

2%  Projections show that 5 out of the 6 planning areas will have an increased demand

50 21 0% for places, which is as a result of the higher year groups transferring from primary schools to secondary schools.

62 -10% -150 -  Based on current projections Kirton planning area may experience a decline in

demand by 12%. 12%

- -20% -350 -30%

-550 -40% Scunthorpe Brigg Barton The Isle Kirton Winterton

60 3.1 North Lincolnshire: over view of the secondary school estate and demographics

3.1.9 Secondary schools: 1st preferences offered What does the data tell us? 120% This graph provides information regarding the total number of first preferences that average North Lincolnshire Council has been able to offer applicants. 98.58% 97.46% 97.13% 97.16% 100% 95.49% 93.95% 92.07% 90.49%  Since 2009, over 90% of parents have received their first preference school.  In 2016 there was a slight decline in the number of parents receiving their first 80% preference school. This was due to particularly high demand for two secondary schools in Scunthorpe Planning area. 60%

40%

20%

0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3.1.10 Secondary schools: 1st preferences offered 2016 by planning area What does the data tell us? This graph shows the number of applicants that received their preferred school by 105% planning area: 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%  There were three schools where parents did not receive their first preference. 95% These were Frederick Gough School (23% oversubscribed); St Bede’s VA Academy (1% oversubscribed) and St Lawrence Academy (45% oversubscribed). 90% 87% 85%

80%

75%

70% Brigg Burton The Isle Kirton Winterton Scunthorpe

1st Prefs offered Average

61 3.1 North Lincolnshire: over view of the secondary school estate and demographics

3.1.11 School Size What does the data tell us?

4000 This graph shows the size of schools within North Lincolnshire. The x-axis is based on 5 schools school size increasing by a one form (30 pupils) increment, with the exception of the 3500 first category which is based on 3 form entry. 3000 2500 4 schools  There majority of school have between 600-750 pupils on roll.

2000 2 schools  The smallest number on roll for a mainstream establishment is the HUTC, but this 1 schools only has a KS3 mainstream intake. The smallest secondary school with KS 3 & KS4 1500 1 School provision has 424 pupils on roll and the largest secondary school has 1229 pupils 1 UTC 1000 one roll. 0 schools 500 504 2114 3449 1553 1229

0- 450 NOR

751-900NOR

600-750NOR

901-1050NOR 451- 600 NOR

1051-1200+NOR

(max form 3 entry) (max form 6 entry)

(max 5 formentry) (max 7 formentry) (max 8 formentry) (max 4 formentry) Sch ool sizes (in half form incraments)

3.1.12 Analysis of pupil population by ethnicity and locality What does the data tell us? This graph provides information on ethnicity by locality. On average 11% of the pupil

-83% Scunthorpe 17% Ethinic Minority population is from an ethnic minority group. The graph shows that Scunthorpe has White British the largest percentage of ethnic minority pupils. -89% NL Average 11%

-94% Brigg 6%

-95% Winterton 5%

-96% Kirton 4%

-97% Isle 3%

-97% Barton 3%

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

62 3.1 North Lincolnshire: over view of the secondary school estate and demographics

3.1.13 Analysis of surplus places (actual pupil numbers) What does the data tell us?

50 This graph provides information regarding the actual number of surplus places in each 9 secondary school. The data is calculated by deducting the schools’ net capacity from

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 the total number of pupils on roll, which determines the surplus places available. The key points to note from the data are: -50 -27 -20 -100  The bars towards the left shows the schools with the greatest number of surplus -97 places. The first line shows a school with 345 spare places, and so on… -116 -150  The bar on the right shows the school that has exceeded its capacity. -146 -166  Not all surplus places are ‘usable places’. For example a few spare spaces in year -200 -173 -194 -192 11, will not help with higher admission in year 7, because it would not be -218 -250 practical to mix these classes. schools(UTC not included) -241  Surplus places are also required as an operation buffer, to allow movement. -300

Number Number of spare places ineach of the 13 secondary -350 -345 eg this school has 345 spare places. -400

3.1.14 Analysis of surplus places (Percentage of space compared with capacity) What does the data tell us?

5% 1% This graph provides information regarding the percentage of space a school has 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 compared to its actual capacity. The key points to note from the data are:

-5% -4% -3%  The bars towards the left show the schools with the greatest number of surplus -10% places. The first line shows a school with 40% capacity, and so on… -15% -12%  The bar to the right shows the school that has exceeded its capacity. -16%  This analysis is limited, in that surplus places do not always equate to ‘usable -20% -17% places’. -22% -22% -21%

-25% (UTCnot included) -27% -30% -29% -31% -35%

% % of spare places in each of13 the secondary schools -40% -40% eg this school has 40% spare places. -45%

63 3.2 Scunthorpe Planning area

3.2 Scunthorpe planning area 3.2.1 About the planning area (PA): Scunthorpe planning area is located centrally within North Lincolnshire. It comprises of 1 school and 6 academies:

 Outwood Academy Brumby (NOR 627– 13.7% of PA)  Outwood Academy Foxhills (NOR 532 – 11.6% of PA)  Frederick Gough School (NOR 1229– 26.9% of PA)  Melior Community College (NOR 706 – 15.4% of PA)  St Bede’s Catholic School (NOR 680 - 14.9% of PA)  St Lawrence Academy (NOR 723 - 15.8% of PA)   Humber UTC (NOR 80 - 1.7% of PA).  This planning area will border with the new Lincolnshire Lakes development which will create 6000+ new houses, so consideration will need to be given to expansion of existing schools to meet future   demand. 

As at January 2016, there were 4577 pupils on roll. On  national offer day 2016, 87% of parents received their first preference. The following schools were oversubscribed: Frederick Gough School (23%  = Planning areas oversubscribed); St Bede’s VA Academy (1% oversubscribed) and St Lawrence Academy (45% oversubscribed). There are currently -48 spare places for Year 7 intake and -723 spare places in all year groups.

Demand: After a number of years of declining pupil numbers, the forecast shows that pupil numbers will increase in the future and exceed the current capacities. There are a significant number of developments which, if they come to fruition, will place additional pressure on place planning. The impact of the Lincolnshire Lakes development also needs to be taken into consideration.

Supply: Even without the housing developments, the equilibrium between supply and demand will be reached in 2019 and will be exceeded in three out of the four subsequent years.

64 3.2 Scunthorpe Planning area

3.2.2 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 250 40% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of 200 Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 30% (%) places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

150 20% 121

20% 80

100 73  There has been a net decrease of -161 pupils, which represents a -3.4% decline of

6% 10% pupil numbers within this planning area.

1% 6

0%  This rate of decline is the lowest across the 6 planning areas. 0 0%  Whilst there has been an overall net decrease in demand for school places, the

-50 graph shows that three schools / academies (Frederick Gough, St Lawrence and St

-10% Bede’s) experience growth rates of 6%, 20% and 1 %respectively.

62 - -100 -  -20% From 2010 to 2016, the three academies with declining rolls collectively had 441 -150 fewer pupils.

-30%

23%

23% -

-200 -

163

- 216

-250 - -40% Brumby Foxhills F. Gough Melior St Bede's St Lawrence HUTC

3.2.3 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PANs for the intake year and/or exceeded their

40% schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is:

Intake Year Intake Year Over Saint Bede's  Intake year  Capacity = 3 Schools / academies 20%  Intake year  Capacity = 2 Schools / academies Frederick Gough The St Lawrence  Intake year  Capacity = 1 Schools / academies

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% 40% 50% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% -10%  Intake year  Capacity = 0 Schools / academies

Outwood Brumby -20% This summary shows that there is currently pressure for spaces in a number of schools, Outwood Foxhills Melior which is largely due to parental preference for particular schools.

-40% Intake Intake Year Under -60% Capacity under Capacity Over

65 3.2 Scunthorpe Planning area

3.2.4 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll in year 7 What does the data tell us? 7000 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 6000  Demand for school places has been in steady decline from 2006 to 2015. 5000  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase

by 502 or by 11%.

5,247

5,196

5,087

5,079

5,067 4,983 4,961  There are currently 39 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning

4000 4,875

4,788

4,738

4,668

4,650

4,597

4,577

4,575 4,509 4,504 applications that could yield approximately 861 additional secondary school

3000 places (see orange dotted line). Additionally the proposed Lincolnshire Lakes development will create 6000+ houses that could increase demand by 1200+ pupils over the next 20+ years. This demand will need to be met within the 2000 Total Y7 - 11 (With UTC admissions) existing secondary schools’ estate. As this planning area is closest to the heart of Housing Planned the development, consideration will need to be given to the expansion of 1000 Total Capacity (With UTC) Scunthorpe Schools. Total Capacity (Without UTC) <--January school census projections / rollling average -->  Even without the proposed housing developments, demand is forecast to equal

0 supply in 2020 and exceed supply thereafter.

2006 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2019 2020 2021 2022 2007  It is noted that the HUTC and John Leggott 14-16 academy will increase overall capacity within the sector. However, this will not create additional spaces in years 7, 8 and 9.

3.2.5 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers on roll What does the data tell us? 1400 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 1200  Demand for school places in year 7 increased significantly from 2015 to 2016.

1000  From 2016 to 2020 there will be an average demand for an extra 12 pupils per year

1,102 1,079

1,059 (1.25% growth rate).

1,039

996 996 996

982 982

1,008

1,003

962 962 958 958

800 940 918 918

917 917  There are 39 approved strategic housing allocations / planning applications which

897 897

890 890 880 880 865 865 could generate additional demand for 172 year 7 places. 600  Even without the housing developments, the equilibrium between supply and demand will be reached in 2019 and will be exceeded in 3 out of the four 400 subsequent years.  On 2016 national offer day there were 40 surplus places available for first year 7 and 200 Total Y7 Housing Planned 87% of applicants received their highest preference school. Total PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2007 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 2021 2023 2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2018 2020 2022 2006 66 3.3 Brigg planning area

3.3 Brigg and District planning area 3.3.1 About the planning area (PA): The Brigg planning area is located centrally within North Lincolnshire. It comprises of 1 school and 1 academy:

Sir John Nelthorpe (NOR 529– 42.6% of PA) The Vale Academy (NOR 713 – 57.4% of PA)

This planning area shares and an external boarder with Lincolnshire and internal borders with Winterton, Barton and Kirton planning areas.

As at January 2016 there were a total of 1242 pupils on roll. Both schools have 6th forms with a combined roll of 128. Five percent of the schools’ communities are from ethnic minority backgrounds. 

On national offer day, all applicants received their first preferred school.

 

 = Planning areas

Demand: There are currently 11 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 180 additional secondary school places. On national offer day there were -338 surplus places

 Supply: Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand will exceed supply in 2020.

67 3.3 Brigg planning area

3.3.2 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 250 40% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (%) pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 200 Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (pupils) 30% places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 150 20%  There has been a net decrease of -154 pupils, which represents an -11% decline in 100 pupil numbers within this planning area. 10% rd

50 29 4%  This rate of decline is the 3 lowest across the 6 planning areas.  Whilst there has been an overall net decrease in demand for school places, the 0 0% graph shows that demand for The Vale Academy has increased. -50 -10%

-100 -20% -150

-30%

-200 26%

183 -

-250 -40% SJN

TheVale

3.3.3 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PANs for the intake year and/or exceeded their

40% schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is:

Intake Year Intake Year Over  intake year  capacity = 2 Schools / academies 20%  intake year  capacity = 0 Schools / academies  intake year  capacity = 0 Schools / academies  

0% intake year capacity = 0 Schools / academies

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 50% 60% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% The Vale Academy This summary shows there is currently no pressure for spaces. Sir John Nelthorpe -20%

-40% Intake Year Intake Year Under -60% Capacity under Capacity Over

68 3.3 Brigg planning area

3.3.4 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 2000 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll

1800 in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

1600  Demand for school places has been in steady decline from 2006 to 2014

1400  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase 1,529

1,520 by 132 or by 8 %. 1,484

1200 1,450

1,405

1,396

1,384 1,374

1,374  There are currently 11 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning

1,347

1,323

1,313

1,277 1,270

1000 1,242 1,211

1,207 applications that could yield approximately 180 additional secondary school 1,200

800 places (see orange dotted line).  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast 600 to exceed supply. On national offer day there were -338 surplus places. 400 Total Y7 - 11  It is noted that the HUTC and John Leggott 14-16 academy will increase overall Housing Planned 200 capacity within the sector. However, this will not create additional spaces in years Total Capacity <--January school census projections / rollling average --> 7, 8 and 9.

2006 2008 2011 2013 2015 2016 2018 2020 2021 2023 2009 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2022 2007

3.3.5 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in year 8 What does the data tell us? 350 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake years within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 300

 From 2016 to 2020 there will be an average net-zero demand for places.

299 299 299 299

296 296

289 289 286 286 250 284

276 276  There are 11 approved strategic housing allocations / planning applications which

273 273 273

265 265

263 263 256 256

255 255 could generate additional demand for 45 year 7 places.

245 245

243 243 240 240 200 236  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand will exceed 216 216 supply in 2020. 150  On 2016 national offer day there were 40 surplus places available for year 7 pupils and 100% of applicants received their highest preference school. 100

50 Total Y7 Housing Planned Total PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2007 2010 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2021 2022 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2006

69 3.4 Barton planning area

3.4 Barton planning area 3.4.1 About the planning area: The Barton planning area is located towards the north east side of North Lincolnshire. It comprises of 1 school, which is Baysgarth School.

This planning area shares an external border with North East Lincolnshire and the River Humber.  Internally the planning area shares borders with Winterton and Brigg planning areas.

As at January 2016 Baysgarth had 754 pupils on roll. The school also has a sixth form which had 21 students enrolled in January 2016.

Three percent of the school’s community are from ethnic minority backgrounds.

On national offer day, all applicants received their first preference school.

 = Planning areas

 Demand: There are currently 9 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 110 additional secondary school places.

 Supply: Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is forecast to exceed supply by 2022.

70 3.4 Barton planning area

3.4.2 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 250 40% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (%) pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 200 30% places within this planning area. As there is only one school in this planning area, the Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (pupils) 150 two other single school planning areas have been included as comparators. 20% 100 10% The key points to note from the data are: 50 Other single school planning areas 0 0%  There has been a net decrease of -106 pupils, which represents a -12% decline in

pupil numbers within this planning area. 12%

-50 - -10% th

106  This rate of decline is the 4 highest across the 6 planning areas. - -100  Compared to the other single school planning areas, Baysgarth School’s population

-20% 26% - has not declined as significantly.

-150 29%

188

- -

216 -30% -200 -

-250 -40% Baysgarth Huntcliff Winterton

3.4.3 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PANs for the intake year and/or exceeded their

40% schools overall capacity. As this planning area only has one school, the two other single- school planning areas have been included as comparators. The summary of the

Intake Year Intake Year Over quadrants in relation to Baysgarth School is: 20%  intake year  capacity = 1 schools / academies  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% -60%  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies Winterton Baysgarth-20% This summary shows that there is currently no pressure for spaces.

-40%

Huntcliff Intake Intake Year Under -60% Capacity under Capacity Over

71 3.4 Barton planning area

3.4.4 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 1200 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

1000  Demand for school places has been in steady decline from 2007 to 2015.  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase

800 913 900 900

899 899 by 57 pupils or by 8 %.

860 860 860 860

846 846

836 836

825 825 825 825

811 811 808 808

795 795  There are currently 9 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning

770 770

768 768

754 754

734 734 733 733 600 731 applications that could yield approximately 110 additional secondary school places (see orange dotted line). 400  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is forecast to exceed supply by 2022. On national offer day there were 146 surplus places.  It is noted that the HUTC and John Leggott 14-16 academy will increase overall 200 Total Y7 - 11 capacity within the sector. However, this will not create additional spaces in years Housing Planned <--January school census projections / rollling average --> Total Capacity 7, 8 and 9.

2007 2009 2011 2013 2016 2018 2020 2022 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2006

3.4.5 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in year 7 What does the data tell us? 250 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake year within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

200  From 2016 to 2020 there will be an average net decrease of one pupil per year.

 There are 9 approved strategic housing allocations / planning applications which

186 186

185 185

179 179 176 176

150 175 could generate additional demand for 22 year 7 places.

171 171 171 171

168 168

166 166

165 165 165

160 160 158 158

153 153  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to 142 142

131 131 exceed supply. However, if all housing is built, there will limited spaces available in

129 129 128 128 100 the future intake years  On 2016 national offer day there were 56 surplus places available for year 7 pupils 50 and 100% of applicants received their highest preference school. Total Y7 Housing Planned Total PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2010

72 3.5 The Isle planning area

3.5 The Isle planning area 3.5.1 About the planning area (PA): The Isle planning area is located on the west side of North Lincolnshire. It comprises of 2 academies:

 The Axholme Academy (NOR 424– 34.6% of PA)  The South Axholme Academy (NOR 799 – 65.4% of PA)

This planning area shares an external border with East Riding, Doncaster, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire / the River Trent. Internally the planning area shares borders with Scunthorpe and Winterton / The Trent  planning area. It is also anticipated that parts of the Isle’s planning area will be close to the western part of the new Lincolnshire Lakes development. Therefore, the Isle academies may be a viable option for some parents residing on Lincolnshire Lakes.  As at January 2016 there were 1223 pupils on roll in the Isle planning area. South Axholme Academy also has a sixth form which opened in 2015 and had 32 students enrolled in January 2016.  = Planning areas

Three percent of the schools’ communities are from ethnic minority backgrounds.

On national offer day, all applicants received their first preferred school.

Demand: Demand for school places has been in steady decline from 2007 to 2016. From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase by 21 pupils or by 2 %. There are currently 3 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 21 additional

secondary school places.

Supply: Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to exceed supply.

73 3.5 The Isle planning area

3.5.2 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 250 40% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of 200 Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (%) pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 30% Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (pupils) places within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 150 20% 100  There has been a net decrease of -49 pupils, which represents a -10.9% decline in 10% pupil numbers within this planning area. 50  This rate of decline is the 4th highest across the 6 planning areas.

0 0%

11 - -50 3% - -10% -100

-20% 15%

-150 - 138

- -30% -200

-250 -40% The Axholme Sth Axholme

3.5.3 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PANs for the intake year and/or exceeded their

40% schools overall capacity. The summary of the quadrants is

Intake Year Intake Year Over  intake year  capacity = 2 schools / academies 20%  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies  

The Axholme Academy 0% intake year capacity = 0 schools / academies

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% 50% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% -10% This summary shows that there is currently no pressure for spaces. Based on national -20% offer day, The Axholme academy exceeded its admission number, but this was to South Axholme Academy maximise the number of offers based on first preferences.

-40% Intake Year Intake Year Under -60% Capacity under Capacity Over

74 3.5 The Isle planning area

3.5.4 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 1600 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

1400 1,503

1,477  Demand for school places has been in steady decline from 2007 to 2016 1,431

1200 1,392 1,372

1,353  From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase

1,328

1,299

1,292

1,260 1,244

1,243 by 21 pupils or by 2 %.

1,238

1,232

1,229

1,223 1,218 1000 1,216  There are currently 3 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 21 additional secondary school places 800 (see orange dotted line). 600  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to exceed supply. On national offer day there were -282 surplus places. 400  It is noted that the HUTC and John Leggott 14-16 academy will increase overall

Total Y7 - 11 capacity within the sector. However, this will not create additional spaces in years 200 Housing Planned 7, 8 and 9. Total Capacity <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2006 2007 2009 2011 2012 2014 2016 2017 2019 2021 2022 2010 2013 2015 2018 2020 2023 2008

3.5.5 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in year 7 What does the data tell us? 350 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake year within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 300

 From 2016 to 2020 there will be zero average change in pupil numbers, although 293 293

250 290 there are some peaks and troughs to note.

272 272

267 267

266 266

264 264

263 263 262 262

257 257  There are 3 approved strategic housing allocations / planning applications which

247 247

246 246

245 245

244 244

242 242 240 240

200 240 could generate additional demand for 4 year 7 places.

220 220 218 218  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to 150 exceed supply.  On 2016 national offer day there were -39 surplus places available for year 7 pupils 100 and 100% of applicants received their highest preference school. The Axholme Total Y7 Academy admitted 6 pupils over PAN. However, this was to maximise the number of 50 Housing Planned 1st preference offers. Catchment pupils only accounted for 60% of the intake. Total PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2006 2007 2010 2013 2014 2016 2017 2020 2023 2009 2011 2012 2015 2018 2019 2021 2022 2008

75 3.6 Kirton planning area

3.6 Kirton planning area 3.6.1 About the planning area (PA): The Kirton planning area is located in the southern area of North Lincolnshire. It comprises of one academy:

 Huntcliff School (NOR 525 - 100% of PA)

This planning area shares an external border with Lincolnshire. Internally the planning area shares borders with Scunthorpe and Brigg planning areas.

As at January 2016 there were 525 pupils on roll in the Kirton planning area.

Four percent of the school’s community are from ethnic minority background.

On national offer day, all applicants received their first preference school.

 = Planning areas 

 Catchment also shared With parts of Lincolnshire

 Demand: From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to continue to decline by 62 pupils or by 12 % . There are currently 4 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 97 additional secondary school places.

Supply: Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to exceed supply.

76 3.6 Kirton planning area

3.6.2 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 250 40% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (%) pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 200 Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (pupils) 30% places within this planning area. As there is only one school in this planning area, the 150 two other single school planning areas have been included as comparators. Other single school planning areas 20% 100 included for comparison The key points to note from the data are: 10% 50

0 0%  There has been a net decrease of -216 pupils, which represents a -29% decline in

pupil numbers within this planning area. 12%

-50 -

-10%  This rate of decline is the highest across the 6 planning areas.

106 - -100

-20%

26% -

-150 29%

188

- -

216 -30% -200 -

-250 -40% Baysgarth Huntcliff Winterton

3.6.3 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PANs for the intake year and/or exceeded their

40% schools overall capacity. As this planning area only has one school, the two other single- school planning areas have been included as comparators. The summary of the

Intake Year Intake Year Over quadrants in relation to Kirton planning area is: 20%  intake year  capacity = 1 schools / academies  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies

-60% -50% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -30% -20% -10% 0% -40%  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies Winterton Baysgarth-20% This summary shows that there is currently no pressure for spaces.

-40%

Huntcliff Intake Year Intake Year Under -60% Capacity under Capacity Over

77 3.6 Kirton planning area

3.6.4 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 1000 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 900

800  Demand for school places has been in steady decline from 2006 to 2016. 863 863  804 804 From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to

700 799 775 775

741 741 continue to decline by 62 pupils or by 12 %. 702 702

600 696  There are currently 4 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning 652 652

500 applications that could yield approximately 97 additional secondary school places

569 569 526 526 525 525 (see orange dotted line).

400 508

471 471 465 465

463 463  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast

435 435 407 407 300 406 to exceed supply. On national offer day there were 345 surplus places.

200  It is noted that the HUTC and John Leggott 14-16 academy will increase overall Total Y7 - 11 capacity within the sector. However, this will not create additional spaces in years 100 Housing Planned <--January school census projections / rollling average --> 7, 8 and 9. Total Capacity

2008 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2021 2007 2011 2012 2013 2017 2018 2019 2022 2023 2006

3.6.5 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in year 7 What does the data tell us? 200 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the 180 intake year within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

160

172 172  From 2016 to 2020 there is estimated to be an average net decrease of 3 pupils per

140 160 year.

148 148  There are 4 approved strategic housing allocations / planning applications which 120 142

132 132 could generate additional demand for 19 year 7 places.

100 123

115 115  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to

109 109 108 108

80 100 exceed supply.

91 91

86 86 81 81

81 81  On 2016 national offer day there were 65 surplus places available for first year 7 and 77 77

60 76 72 72

65 65 100% of applicants received their highest preference school. 40 Total Y7 20 Housing Planned Total PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 2015 2018 2021 2010 2013 2014 2016 2017 2019 2020 2022 2023 2007

78 3.7 Winterton planning area

3.7 Winterton planning area 3.7.1 About the planning area: The Winterton planning area is located in the central northern area of North Lincolnshire. It comprises of one academy:

 Winterton Community Academy School (NOR 528 – 100% of PA)  This planning area shares an external border with The River Humber and River Trent. Internally the planning area shares borders with Scunthorpe and Brigg and  Barton planning areas.

As at January 2016 there were 528 pupils on roll in the Winterton planning area.

Five percent of the schools’ communities are from ethnic minority backgrounds.

On national offer day, all applicants received their first preference school.

 = Planning areas

Demand: From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase by 60 pupils or by 11 %. There are currently 5 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 39 additional secondary school places.

Supply: Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to exceed supply.

79 3.7 Winterton planning area

3.7.2 Historic pupil population growth: NOR 2010 compared with NOR 2016 What does the data tell us? 250 40% This graph compares the total number of pupils on roll in 2010 with the total number of Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (%) pupils on roll in 2016 to determine the net increase / decrease in demand for school 200 Total NOR in 2010 compared with total NOR in 2016 growth (pupils) 30% places within this planning area. As there is only one school in this planning area, the 150 two other single school planning areas have been included as comparators. Other single school planning areas 20% 100 included for comparison 10% The key points to note from the data are: 50 0 0%  There has been a net decrease of -188 pupils, which represents a -26% decline in

pupil numbers within this planning area. 12%

-50 - -10% nd

106  This rate of decline is the 2 highest across the 6 planning areas. - -100

-20%

26% -

-150 29%

188

- -

216 -30% -200 -

-250 -40% Baysgarth Huntcliff Winterton

3.7.3 Census summary: have PANs been exceeded? Have capacities been exceeded? What does the data tell us? 60% This graph provides a snapshot as at January 2016 to show, at a glance, which establishments have exceeded their PANs for the intake year and/or exceeded their

40% schools overall capacity. As this planning area only has one school, the two other single- school planning areas have been included as comparators. The summary of the

Intake Intake Year Over quadrants in relation to Kirton planning area is: 20%  intake year  capacity = 1 schools / academies  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% 50% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% -10%  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies  intake year  capacity = 0 schools / academies Winterton Baysgarth-20% This summary shows that there is currently no pressure for spaces.

-40%

Huntcliff Intake Year Intake Year Under -60% Capacity under Capacity Over

80 3.7 Winterton planning area

3.7.4 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total number on roll What does the data tell us? 800 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the total number of pupils on roll in this planning area. The key points to note from the data are:

700

716 716

707 707

703 703

702 702 701 701

695 695  Demand for school places has been in steady decline from 2010 to 2016 600 670 670 

632 632 From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on roll is expected to increase

611 611

602 602 598 598

588 588 by 60 pupils or by 11 %. 574 574

500 573

552 552

543 543 528 528 527 527  There are currently 5 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning 400 applications that could yield approximately 39 additional secondary school places (see orange dotted line). 300  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast

200 to exceed supply. On national offer day there were 192 surplus places.  It is noted that the HUTC and John Leggott 14-16 academy will increase overall 100 Total Y7 - 11 capacity within the sector. However, this will not create additional spaces in years Housing Planned Total Capacity <--January school census projections / rollling average --> 7, 8 and 9.

2006 2007 2009 2011 2013 2016 2018 2020 2023 2010 2012 2014 2015 2017 2019 2021 2022 2008

3.7.5 Pupil numbers, historic and projected: total numbers in year 7 What does the data tell us? 160 This graph shows the historic and projected data for the number of pupils on roll in the intake year within this planning area. The key points to note from the data are: 140

147 147 146 146 144 144  137 137 From 2016 to 2020 there is estimated to be an average net decrease of 1 pupil per

120 136

134 134 131 131

130 130 year.

125 125

121 121

117 117 116 116

100 116  There are 5 approved strategic housing allocations / planning applications which

113 113

110 110 109 109

99 99 could generate additional demand for 8 year 7 places.

80 91  Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to exceed supply. 60  On 2016 national offer day there were 31 surplus places available for year 7 pupils 40 and 100% of applicants received their highest preference school.

Total Y7 20 housing Planned Total PANs <--January school census projections / rollling average -->

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 2019 2021 2023 2009 2011 2013 2015 2018 2020 2022 2007

Action Plans

82 4.0 Action Plans

4.1 Primary schools’ estate action plan (by planning area)

1) Barton & District: Observations / Concerns Mitigation Action required Demand for school places has steadily risen from 2010 North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to (1) Supply can adequately meet projected demand. and is projected to peak in 2017 and then remain fairly admit a number of pupils, should a constant from 2018 to 2024. There are currently no situation arise where a place cannot be approved planning applications for this planning area. found within a reasonable distance.

2) Brigg and District: Observations / Concerns Mitigation Action required Whilst the projections show there is sufficient capacity North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to Brigg and Kirton Schools: to meet overall demand, the following localised admit a number of pupils, should a (1) To closely monitor planning applications, commencement of pressures need to be highlighted: situation arise where a place cannot be construction and build rates to identify if additional capacity is  St Barnabas has exceeded capacity, and a found within a reasonable distance. required. number of future year groups are anticipated to (2) To undertake feasibilities to expand schools when planning be higher than their PAN. applications are made.  Brigg and Kirton Schools will be affected if housing developments are progressed. Barnetby Area (3) To undertake a feasibility to understand how we can expand the school, should the need arise.

3) Barton Town: Observations / Concern Mitigation Action required Whilst the projections show there is sufficient capacity North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to (1) To closely monitor planning applications, commencement of to meet overall demand, individual year groups are admit a number of pupils, should a construction and build rates to identify if additional capacity is oversubscribed and the housing developments will put situation arise where a place cannot be required. further pressure across the planning area’s estate. found within a reasonable distance. (2) To undertake feasibilities to expand existing schools or consider building a new primary school.

4) Burton & Winterton: Observations / Concern Mitigation Action required Whilst the projections show there is sufficient capacity North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to (1) Current demand does not suggest the need for capital to meet demand based on overall capacity, there is a admit a number of pupils, should a investment spike in demand for reception places in 2017 and some situation arise where a place cannot be (2) To monitor FAP admissions. schools in this rural area may face pressures. There are found within a reasonable distance. currently 5 strategic housing allocations / approved applications that could yield an additional 49 pupil places.

83 4.0 Action Plans

5) Isle North: Observation / Concern Mitigation Action required There are 3 strategic housing allocations /planning None required. (1) Supply can adequately meet projected demand. application, which could yield an additional 30 pupil places. However, there is sufficient capacity to meet anticipated numbers.

6) Isle South Observation / Concern Mitigation Action required Demand for school places is projected to continue to None required. (1) Supply can adequately meet projected demand. decline until 2021. There are no approved planning applications for this planning area.

7) Scunthorpe North Mitigation Action required The projections show there is sufficient capacity to North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to (1) To closely monitor planning applications, commencement of meet overall demand. However, from an operational admit a number of pupils, should a construction and build rates to identify when additional perspective there is not a sufficient buffer to allow for situation arise where a place cannot be capacity is required. pupil movement and variations between numbers in found within a reasonable distance. each cohort. There are 16 strategic housing allocations (2) To undertake option appraisals to ascertain the best options to that could yield an additional 756 pupil places. expand provision in this area. Additionally, there is a major housing development (6000 houses) planned for the outskirts of Scunthorpe which may impact on demand.

Taking into account pupil projections and estimated housing growth, it is likely that the combined PAN for this planning area will not be sufficient to meet projected housing yields.

Mitigation Mitigation Action required The projections show there is sufficient capacity to North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to 1) To closely monitor planning applications, commencement of meet overall demand. However, from an operational admit a number of pupils, should a construction and build rates to identify when additional perspective there is not a sufficient buffer to allow for situation arise where a place cannot be capacity is required. pupil movement and variations between numbers in found within a reasonable distance. each cohort. There are 23 strategic housing allocations 2) To undertake option appraisals to ascertain the best options to / approved application that could potentially yield an expand provision in this area. additional demand for 321 pupil places. Additionally, there is a major housing development (6000 houses) planned for the outskirts of Scunthorpe which may impact on demand.

84 4.0 Action Plans

The anticipated demand for places is below the combined capacities for the schools within this planning area. However, this does not take into account pressure for places in certain localities.

4.2 Secondary schools’ estate action plan (by planning area)

1) Scunthorpe planning area: Observations / Concerns Mitigation Action required After a number of years of declining pupil numbers, the In the shorter term, requesting schools (1) To undertake feasibilities to expand schools to meet demand forecast shows that pupil numbers will increase in the to admit above their PAN, pending from the growing pupil population. future and exceed the current capacities. possible expansion of accommodation. (2) To closely monitor planning applications, commencement of There are a significant number of developments which, construction and build rates to identify when additional capacity if they come to fruition, will place additional pressure will be required. on place planning. (3) To continue working with the secondary strategic place planning The impact of the Lincolnshire Lakes development also group to identify solutions. needs to be taken into consideration. (4) Monitor admissions of the HUTC and JLC 14-16 academy to determine impact on spare capacity.

2) Brigg planning area: Observations / Concerns Mitigation Action required There are currently 11 approved strategic housing North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to (1) To monitor planning applications, commencement of allocations / approved planning applications that could admit a number of pupils, should a construction and build rates to identify if additional capacity is yield approximately 180 additional secondary school situation arise where a place cannot be required. places. On national offer day there were 338 surplus found within a reasonable distance. places.

Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand will exceed supply in 2020. 3) Barton planning area: Observations / Concerns Mitigation Action required There are currently 9 approved strategic housing North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to (1) To monitor planning applications, commencement of allocations / approved planning applications that could admit a number of pupils, should a construction and build rates to identify if additional capacity is yield approximately 110 additional secondary school situation arise where a place cannot be required. places. found within a reasonable distance.

85 4.0 Action Plans

Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is forecast to exceed supply by 2022.

5) The Isle planning area: observations / concerns Mitigation Action required Demand for school places has been in steady decline North Lincolnshire’s FAP can be used to (2) Supply can adequately meet projected demand. from 2007 to 2016. From 2016 to 2020, the projected admit a number of pupils, should a number of pupils on roll is expected to increase by 21 situation arise where a place cannot be pupils or by 2 %. There are currently 3 approved found within a reasonable distance. strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 21 additional secondary school places.

Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to exceed supply.

6) Kirton planning areas: observations / concerns Mitigation Action required From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on None required. (2) Supply can adequately meet projected demand. roll is expected to continue to decline by 62 pupils or by 12 %. There are currently 4 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 97 additional secondary school places.

Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to exceed supply

7) Winterton planning area: observations / concerns Action required

86 4.0 Action Plans

From 2016 to 2020, the projected number of pupils on None required. (3) Supply can adequately meet projected demand. roll is expected to increase by 60 pupils or by 11 %. There are currently 5 approved strategic housing allocations / approved planning applications that could yield approximately 39 additional secondary school places.

Taking into account the proposed housing developments, demand is not forecast to exceed supply.

87 5.0 Appendices

Appendix 1: Glossary and technical terms

Academy State funded independent schools. The governors are (M) – Maintained School State schools wholly owned and maintained by North responsible for allocating pupil places. Lincolnshire Council. The council is the Admissions Authority Admission Authority In relation to a community or voluntary controlled school this is responsible for allocating pupil places. North Lincolnshire Council and, in relation to a foundation, voluntary aided school, or academy it is the governing body of Migration The movement of pupils from one place to another, usually from that school. in and out of catchment areas. The net flow of pupil movement Admission Number (Capacity) The number of children that can be admitted to a school in each is calculated by subtracting the inflow from the outflow. academic year group. The capacity is calculated by multiplying Mobility The movement of pupils from one place to another, usually from the admission number by the number of year groups to provide in and out of catchment areas. The net flow of pupil movement an overall total of school places for the school is calculated by subtracting the inflow from the outflow. Admissions Process All applications for a school place will be put through the Multi-Academy Trust A group of schools governed through a single set of members admissions process to ensure they are dealt with fairly and and directors consistently. All schools have admission criteria to decide which children get places. National Academy Chain A partnership between a group of academies Appeal There is a process to appeal against the decision by an admission authority not to allocate a place at a given school NOR - Number on Roll Number of pupils in each year group attending each school Catchment A specified geographical area, from which children may be Offered by LA A school place is offered by North Lincolnshire Council in afforded priority for admission to a particular school accordance with the Co-ordinated Admissions Scheme which is Catchment school A primary school or infant/junior schools that serve the local made under Section 88M of the School Standards and community in the geographical area that surrounds them. Framework Act 1998 and in accordance with The School Census A statutory data collection 3 times per year from all schools Admissions including academies and UTCs, which provides information (Admissions Arrangements and Co-ordination of Admission about pupil numbers, individual pupils and their education Arrangements) (England) Regulations 2012. provision OOA – Out of Area Areas outside North Lincolnshire Council borders CIC – Children in Care Children looked after by or provided with accommodation in Planning Area Designated areas within the North Lincolnshire Council for exercise of its functions by North Lincolnshire Council or any planning of school place requirements other local authority. Also includes children who were in Care Preference As part of the application for a school place, parents will be able until they were adopted or made subject of a residence order. to preference more than one school in order of choice. Parents CIN – Children in Need A child who has been assessed by children’s social care to be in can preference any school, including those schools out of their need of services. These services can include, for example, family local authority boundary. support (to help keep together families experiencing difficulties), Pupil Yield The expected number of pupils that will be generated from a leaving care support (to help young people who have left local housing development, calculated with a tested formula. authority care), adoption support, or disabled children’s services Reception Places Reception class is the first year of primary school (including (including social care, education and health provision). infant schools also). It provides a school place for children who Converter Academy Schools that have chosen to convert to academies will reach their 5th birthday in the academic year. Reception Diocesan Body A body that is designated as having religious character by the places refer to the number of available places in the reception Secretary of State year group. This is dependent on the admission number for the Estate Buildings used to provide education school Forecasting The expected pupil demand for school places based on data and School Place Planning The planning the supply of school places, i.e. ensuring there are intelligence of children in the planning area sufficient school places in the right areas in response to the changing demographic demand. SEN - Special Educational Needs Describes the needs of a child who has a difficulty or disability which makes learning harder for them than other children of their age. Siblings Brothers or sisters which includes step-brothers and sisters and half-brothers and sisters living at the same address. Statutory Process The legal process that must be followed when making changes 88 5.0 Appendices

to schools as prescribed in the Schools Organisation Regulations. Surplus/Shortfall The amount of school places available or the amount of insufficient school places. This is a simple calculation of Appendix 2: Photograph credits subtracting the numbers on roll from the admission number.

A number of photographs used in this document have been downloaded from public domain websites. The S106 Contribution A Section 106 contribution is a financial amount from a photographs have been used in accordance with the all creative commons licence developer paid to its local authority for the provision of school (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/). Photographs not listed here, but used in this report are places resulting from the pupil yield of a housing development. not subject to any restrictions VA – Voluntary Aided A voluntary aided school is a state-funded school in England and

Wales in which a foundation or trust (usually a religious organisation), contributes to building costs and has influence in the running of the school. The governors are responsible for Part two: primary sector photographs allocating pupil places. 2.1.1 The Steel Works by Nick Parkin - https://flic.kr/p/8TodHb VC – Voluntary Controlled A kind of maintained school but where the land and buildings 2.1.2 Brigg Market Place by Nick Parkin - (https://flic.kr/p/8TodHb) are typically owned by charitable foundation or religious 2.1.2 Waters Edge Visitor Centre by SteveH1972 - https://flic.kr/p/kFhHYK organisation. The council is responsible for allocating pupil 2.2.1 Thorton Abbey By David Wright - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6073173 places. 2.3.1 The Angel Brigg by SteveH1972 - https://flic.kr/p/pB2Htq 2.4.1 Waters Edge Visitor Centre by SteveH1972 - https://flic.kr/p/kFhHYK 2.5.2 Julian Bower’s Maze by Phil Shirley - https://flic.kr/p/8xEMoG 2.6.1 The Market Hall by David Wright - http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/236052 2.7.1 Queens Street by Jo Turner - http://s0.geograph.org.uk/geophotos/04/97/01/4970141_85fb1460.jpg 2.8.1 Crosby Primary School (c/o school’s website) 2.9.1 The Steel Works by Nick Parkin - https://flic.kr/p/8TodHb

Part 2: Secondary Sector Photographs Secondary 3.1.1 Outwood Academy Foxhills by Johnathan Thacker - http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3179195. 3.1.2 Brigg market place by Richard Croft - http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/1061597 3.2.1 Melior Academy (academy website) 3.3.1 Sir John Nelthorpe School (school website) 3.4.1 Humber Bridge by Dom Hine - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Humber_bridge,_UK.jpg 3.5.1 The Axholme Academy by Mike Kirby - http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/917518 3.6.1 Huntcliff Comprehensive Academy by Geoff Pick - http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/217217 3.7.1. Winterton PROW: by Andrew Locking http://www.andrewswalks.co.uk/burtonstather.html

89 5.0 Appendices

Appendix 3: Maintained schools / academies sixth form census data (mainstream)

6th forms provision 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trend

Baysgarth lower 6th 51 29 39 33 32 25 25 37 48 25 8 Baysgarth upper 6th 56 33 26 33 36 45 29 23 28 34 23

Total 107 62 65 66 68 70 54 60 76 59 31

Sir John Nelthorpe lower 6th 44 44 47 21 35 30 29 36 34 45 25 Sir John Nelthorpe upper 6th 17 40 45 43 25 31 30 30 34 29 40

Total 61 84 92 64 60 61 59 66 68 74 65

Vale of Ancholme lower 6th 33 26 30 16 33 16 34 35 37 30 36 Vale of Ancholme upper 6th 16 29 19 29 21 28 15 28 33 30 27

Total 49 55 49 45 54 44 49 63 70 60 63

South Axholme Academy lower 6th 31 South Axholme Academy upper 6th 1 Total 32 N/A

Humber UTC lower 6th 23 Humber UTC upper 6th 1 Total 24 N/A

Total post 16 Provision 217 201 206 175 182 175 162 189 214 193 191

90 5.0 Appendices

Appendix 4: Special schools census data including sixth form

Special schools Primary 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trend

St Luke's Primary School Reception 13 12 9 10 12 15 14 17 10 10 18

St Luke's Primary School Total exc nursery 95 92 96 100 102 107 110 113 104 110 127

Special Schools Secondary 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trend

St Hugh's Communication & Interaction college Year 7 21 28 21 16 26 26 25 30 29 25 26

St Hugh's Communication & Interaction college Total exc 6th form 110 117 120 109 114 118 112 120 132 128 129

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trend

St Hugh's Communication & Interaction college lower 6th 0 4 3 3 5 3 5 1 7 6 8

St Hugh's Communication & Interaction college upper 6th 3 0 3 5 4 6 8 7 5 7 13