Bulletin #41 • October 2020 • www.zrbf.co.zw
IN THIS REPORT Overall Results and Implications The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail Status Update Macro-Indicators real time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for the activation of the crisis modifier, performance Vegetation Condition Index monitoring, programming and other decisions for the overall ZRBF Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger adaptive programme management. Information presented in this Indicators bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Database, accessible using this urlhttps://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php . Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and The bulletin contains official information for the month of October 2020 Proposed Mitigatory Activities collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by Biophysical Trigger indicators ZRBF PMU. The High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of Production Trigger indicators collaboration between the ZRBF Partners and other government Access Trigger Indicators agencies. For questions and comments regarding this bulletin, kindly Trade Trigger Indicators get in touch with Vhusomuzi Sithole ([email protected]), Shupikai Mutyambizi ([email protected] ).
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UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe +263 4 338836-44 Table of Contents
1. Overall Results and Implica ons ...... 3 2. Status Update Macro-Indicators ...... 5 2.1 Vegeta on Condi on Index ...... 5 3.Summary of Broad Classifica on: Micro Trigger Indicators ...... 6 Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mi gatory Ac vi es ...... 7 4.1. Biophysical Trigger indicators ...... 7 4.2 Produc on Trigger indicators ...... 8 4.3 Access Trigger Indicators ...... 9 4.4 Trade Trigger Indicators ...... 10
1. Overall Results and Implica ons
Summary Classifi ca on
Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classifica on, all the 18 districts were in the Alert category. The following micro indicators, which in the Emergency Stage, drove this overall classifica on. • Ca le price in Beitbridge • Common diarrhoea reported cases in Nkayi and Umguza • Pastures availability in Chiredzi, Mutoko and Mwenezi. • State of water sources in Zvishavane
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Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classifica on of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. Table 1: Overall Classifica on of the 18 districts
Month Beitbridge Bubi Binga Chiredzi Insiza Kariba Lupane Matobo Mberengwa Mbire Mudzi Mutoko Mwenezi Nkayi Nyanga Umguza Umzingwane Zvishavane
Sept-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Aug-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
July-20 Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm
June 20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
May 20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Apri-20 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm
Mar-20 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert
Feb-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Jan-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Dec-19 Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Nov-19 Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert
Oct-19 Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert
Sept-19 Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
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2. Status Update Macro-Indicators
2.1 Vegeta on Condi on Index
Figure 1: Vegeta on Condi on Index for September 2020 The Vegeta on Condi on Index shows a generally reduced vegeta on condi on across the country. In September 2020, 14 districts were in Alarm, 1 in Alert and 3 in the Normal categories as shown below:
a) Normal (Mudzi, Mutoko and Nyanga) Crisis District VCI value b) Alert (Bubi), and Modifier c) Alarm (Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Beitbridge 0.38 Alarm Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Binga 0.43 Alarm Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane). Bubi 0.50 Alert Chiredzi 0.35 Alarm Insiza 0.39 Alarm
Kariba 0.38 Alarm Lupane 0.32 Alarm Matobo 0.41 Alarm Mberengwa 0.28 Alarm Mbire 0.36 Alarm Mudzi 0.78 Normal Mutoko 0.68 Normal Mwenezi 0.32 Alarm Nkayi 0.34 Alarm Nyanga 0.74 Normal Umguza 0.42 Alarm Umzingwane 0.37 Alarm Zvishavane 0.38 Alarm 5
3.Summary of Broad Classifica on: Micro Trigger Indicators
The micro-indicator data from the 17 reported districts reflects that condi ons in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, produc on and access indicators, are mostly in the Alert category. Kariba district did not report for the month of September.
▪ Biophysical indicators are in Alarm in Beitbridge, Binga and Mwenezi Districts, This categorisa on is mainly due to Pasture availability which is in Emergency (cri cally inadequate) and is inadequate in the rest of the districts. State of water sources which have depleted and are in Alarm and Alert. The rest of the districts are in Alert Stage for Bio Physical indicators
▪ Produc on indicators in seven (7) districts are in the Alert category up from (5) in the previous month. Livestock body condi on is deteriora ng in all districts ▪ Access indicators are in the Alarm category in Nyanga and Umzingwane districts, and in Alert for the rest of the 15 districts which reported. These categorisa ons are mainly due to an increase of districts in Alarm for Number of meals a day, distance to water sources for households and water for livestock trekking distances. ▪ Two (2) districts are in Alert category for Trade indicators down from five in August, Fourteen districts are repor ng trade indicators in USD and Rands as the market has resorted to the use of the foreign currency to manage the increase of prices in the ZWD. The rest of the districts are in the normal category as farmers have resorted to selling their commodi es in foreign currency at prevailing market rates. Mbire and Beitbridge are in the Alert category as their commodi es prices fall below the normal thresholds especially ca le prices which are extremely low in Beitbridge.
Table 2: Trigger Indicator summary for September 2020
District Biophysical Indicators Produc on Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alarm Normal Alert Alert Binga Alarm Normal Alert Normal Bubi Alert Alert Alert Normal Chiredzi Alert Normal Alert Normal Insiza Alert Normal Alert Normal Lupane Alert Normal Alert Normal Matobo Alert Alert Alert Normal Mberengwa Alert Normal Alert Normal Mbire Alert Normal Alert Alert Mudzi Alert Normal Alert Normal Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Normal Mwenezi Alarm Normal Alert Normal Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Normal Nyanga Alert Alert Alarm Normal Umguza Alert Alert Alert Normal Umzingwane Alert Alert Alarm Normal
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Zvishavane Alert Normal Alert Normal
Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mi gatory Ac vi es
4.1. Biophysical Trigger indicators Table 3: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for September 2020 Biophysical Indicators Pastures State of Water District Rainfall Mid-season Dry Spells Availability Sources Beitbridge 2 No data 3 0 Binga 2 No data 2 0 Bubi 2 0 2 0 Chiredzi 1 9 3 0 Insiza 2 0 3 0 Lupane 2 0 2 0 Matobo 2 7 3 0 Mberengwa 2 0.44 2 0 Mbire 2 0 2 0 Mudzi 2 0 3 0 Mutoko 1 0 4 0 Mwenezi 1 1.12 2 0 Nkayi 2 0 2 0 Nyanga No data 0 2 0 Umguza 2 0 2 0 Umzingwane 2 0 2 0 Zvishavane 2 0 1 0
▪ Pasture availability is in the Emergency category in three (3) districts where the remaining pastures will last only a month. 14 districts are in the Alarm category with pastures expected to last 1-3 months. Nyanga district did not report pasture availability data. ▪ Zvishavane district is I the Emergency category for State of water sources where less than 30% of boreholes are func onal. Ten districts are in the Alarm category. This means that 30-65% of the boreholes are func onal. Five (5) districts are in the Alert category meaning 65%-85% of the boreholes are func onal and only Mutoko district is in the normal category with 85% of the boreholes func oning. Proposed Mi ga on Ac vi es
As pastures deplete in almost every district, farmers are advised to organise and implement grazing plans that takes into account the ecosystem and the available resources. Farmers should also consider reducing the number of their livestock herds and explore crea ve partnerships with the private sector for poten al livestock risk insurance schemes.
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In areas such as Zvishavane where the state of water sources has deteriorated to emergency levels, there is urgent need for the district water and sanita on commi es to meet and discuss on how to restore the func onality of water sources. ZRBF partners may also leverage on cost extension resources to support the rehabilita on or establishment of new water points to ensure household water availability and re duce livestock trekking distance.
4.2 Produc on Trigger indicators Table 4: Produc on trigger indicator summary for September 2020 Produc on Indicators Number Reported Reported Crops Pest Livestock Crop Livestock Cases of Cases of District and Diseases Body Condi on Poverty Livestock Waterborne Outbreaks Condi on Deaths Diseases Diseases Beitbridge 3 3 2 0 71 0 Binga No data No data 2 1 2 0 Bubi No data No data 2 6 51 41 Chiredzi 3 3 2 75 23 6 Insiza No data No data 2 0 0 0 Lupane 3 2 1 15 3 0 Matobo No data No data 1 0 9 0 Mberengwa 3 No data 2 41 7 5 Mbire No data No data 2 0 28 38 Mudzi 2 2 2 0 5 0 Mutoko 2 3 2 0 29 0 Mwenezi 3 3 2 95 0 0 Nkayi No data No data 2 6 57 174 Nyanga 3 3 1 0 33 0 Umguza No data No data 2 6 49 163 Umzingwane No data No data 2 9 77 80 Zvishavane 3 No data 1 56 0 2
▪ Three districts are in the Alert category for crop pests and diseases outbreak. There are no field dryland crops therefore hor cultural crops are being affected by garden pests. ▪ 310 livestock poverty deaths have been reported for this month up from 11 in August; Chiredzi, Mberengwa, Mwenezi and Zvishavane districts are in the Alarm category for livestock poverty deaths with Mwenezi recording the highest of 95. Five districts are in the Alarm category and 8 are in the normal, 7 of these recording no deaths. The lack of pastures, long distances for livestock trekking and deteriora ng body condi on have led to a significantly high increase in poverty deaths this month. ▪ Livestock body condi on is in Alarm category in four (4) districts, (Zvishavane, Lupane, Nyanga and Matobo) and in Alert in the rest of the 13 districts. This is a ributed to the cri cally inadequate pasture across all the districts and the increasing water for livestock trekking distance. 8
▪ Reported cases of Livestock diseases is in Alarm stage in two (2) districts. Twelve districts are in the Alert category up from seven (7) in the previous month whilst the remaining are in the normal category. Lumpy skin, heartwater and fowlpox were reported. ▪ Waterborne diseases are in Emergency in Nkayi and Umguza districts with common diarrhoea cases of above 100, Alarm in three (3) and Alert in three. Two (2) typhoid cases recorded in Mberengwa
Proposed Mi ga on Ac vi es To reduce livestock starva on and drought related deaths, there is need to scale up the bush meal business model throughout the eighteen ZRBF targeted districts. Assessments should be carried out in areas with an abundance of indigenous trees which can be used with fodder and crop residues to supplement survival of the livestock. Ini al results from the roll out of bush meal produc on has shown that bush meal is a viable and promising concept, both in terms of animal health and economic viability.
Livestock farmers are encouraged to dip their animals consistently and to observe animals frequently for signs of disease, and if a disease problem develops, obtain an early, reliable diagnosis and apply the best treatment, control and eradica on measures.
The provision of safe water should be complemented by vigorous health and hygiene educa on in communi es, homes, schools, marketplaces, and healthcare facili es with priority given to Nkayi, Umguza and Mberengwa. This will help to prevent and protect human health during all infec ous disease outbreaks, including of COVID-19. Good hygiene also reduces the general burden of disease
4.3 Access Trigger Indicators Table 5: Access trigger indicator summary for September 2020 Access Indicators Distances to Water Water for Number of School District Sources for Livestock Trekking Meals A endance Households Distance Beitbridge 2 3 No data 5 Binga 3 2 No data 3.5 Bubi 2.5 1 No data 4.5 Chiredzi 1.62 2 No data 3 Insiza 2 2 No data 4 Lupane 3 2 No data 3 Matobo 3 2 No data 3.91 Mberengwa 2.59 2 No data 5 Mbire 2 2 No data 3.4 Mudzi 2.52 2 No data 3 Mutoko 3 2 No data 4.64 Mwenezi 3.1 2 No data 5 Nkayi 3 2 No data 7 Nyanga 5 2 No data 3 Umguza 2.5 2 No data 6 Umzingwane 2.5 1 No data 4.23
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Zvishavane 3.16 2 No data 5
▪ Distance to water sources is in Alarm in three (3) districts and in Alert in the rest of the 15 districts. Households in Nyanga are travelling an average of 5km to access water. ▪ Umzingwane and Bubi districts are in the Alarm stage for the number of meals a day reduced from four (4) districts in the previous month. The increase in food prices, deple on of harvested grain has led to households employing a nega ve coping strategy of reducing the number of meals. Fourteen districts are in the Alert stage with 2 meals a day up from twelve in the previous month and only Beitbridge district reported households having an average of 3 mea ls a day ▪ Water for livestock trekking distance is in Alarm six (6) districts up from three districts in the previous month. Livestock in Umguza and Nkayi are trekking an average of 6-7km to access water. The rest of the districts are in the Alert stage with livestock trekking between 2-4 km for water ▪ All schools are closed due to the COVID 19 pandemic. Proposed Mi gatory Ac vi es
Districts that have started to review their disaster risk management or annual plans should include interven ons that contributes towards reducing malnutri on and ensuring long term food security. In the long term, nega ve impacts of limited access to adequate food can be mi gated through use of irriga on and growing of drought-tolerant crop varie es to match the changing weather and climate pa erns. Consor a working in communi es which endure long distances to access water for domes c and livestock consump on, may leverage on addi onal funding from the cost extension budgets to invest in water for agriculture and livestock as well as in response to increased hygiene requirements due to COVID-19.
4.4 Trade Trigger Indicators
Indigenous Pearl Goat Maize Rapoko Sheep Sorghum District Ca le Price Chicken Millet Price Price Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 139 20 4 6 6 6 No data 6 Binga 350 25 5 5 5 No data 30 5 Bubi 346 30 5 7 7 7 40 7 Chiredzi 295 24 5 7 7 8 46 6 Insiza 400 40 5 8 10 8 60 10 Lupane 350 35 6 7 7 7 45 7 Matobo 400 40 5 10 10 9 50 10 Mberengwa 400 40 5 8 10 10 60 10 Mbire 247 25 5 6 6 6 43 6
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Mudzi 250 31.59 4.25 6.5 7 12 52.7 6 Mutoko 280 35 5 5 8 12 45 5 Mwenezi 266 32 5 7 6 8 57 6 Nkayi 294 30 6 7 No data No data 35 7 Nyanga 450 39 5 5 6 6 155 6 Umguza 500 30 7 7 6 6 41 7 Umzingwane 500 30 7 7 7 No data 60 7 Zvishavane 350 40 5 7 10 10 60 10 Table 6: Trade trigger indicator summary for September 2020
The trade indicators were converted to the USD using the official exchange rate as at 3 0 September of 81.03 ZWD to 1 USD. However majority f the districts reported prices in USD and ZAR Rand this month as markets are favouring trade in foreign currency over the local currency.
• Ca le in Beitbridge are in the Emergency category selling for an average of 139 USD; 24 USD increase from the previous month as markets try to adjust to the exchange rate. Six districts are in the Alert category with average prices less than 300 USD. • Goat prices are in the Alert category in Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi and Mbire where a goat is selling for 20-25 USD, prices fell below the normal prices owing to the weakening of the ZWD against the USD. • Indigenous Chickens, maize, pearl millet and sorghum prices are in the Normal category for all the districts. • Rapoko prices are in Alarm in four districts and Alert in five. • Most of the Alerts in commodity prices were caused by the changes in the exchange rate as the ZW dollar weakened against the USD. Farmers have however increased their prices in ZWD to match the varia ons. Proposed Mi gatory Ac vi es Farmers are encouraged to seek be er alterna ve markets and to avoid panic selling of their livestock by disposing their ca le when they are s ll in good condi on and keeping only the number of ca le they can feed throughout the dry season.
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