Bulletin #21 • February 2019 • www.zrbf.co.zw The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 5 The bulletin contains official information for the month of January 2019 collected Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Indicators 5 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 6 Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi.sithole@ Signals 10 undp.org), Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil (rufael. Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water [email protected]). level in selected rivers 11 UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019 Overall Results and Implications Summary Classification Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, 15 districts were rated “Alert” and the remaining three did not report. The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of January 2018 were: 1. Cattle price in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 2. Cholera Reported Cases in Mutoko 3. Common Diarrhea reported Cases in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 4. Crop condition in Beitbridge 5. Crops pest and diseases outbreaks in Beitbridge 6. Distances to water sources for households in Mberengwa 7. FMD reported cases in Mberengwa 8. Goat Price in Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 9. Indigenous chicken price in Chiredzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Umguza and Umzingwane 10. Maize price in Bubi, Chiredzi, Mudzi, Nkayi and Umzingwane 11. Number of livestock poverty deaths in Zvishavane 12. Pastures availability in Beitbridge 13. Pearl millet price in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi, Umguza and Zvishavane 14. Rapoko price in Mudzi 15. Sorghum price in Bubi, Insiza, Matobo, Nkayi, Umguza and Zvishavane Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 16 months. Table 1: Overall Classification of the 18 districts Bubi Binga Nkayi Insiza Mbire Mudzi Kariba Month Lupane Nyanga Mutoko Matobo Chiredzi Umguza Mwenezi Beitbridge Zvishavane Mberengwa Umzingwane Page 3 No No No Jan-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert data data data No No No Dec-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert | data data data MonitoringReport High Frequency No Nov 18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert data Oct-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Sept-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Aug-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert No July 18 Alert Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Alert Data June-18 Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Bulletin #21|February 2019 May-18 Normal Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Normal Normal April-18 Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal No Mar-18 Alert Normal Normal Alert Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Normal Normal data Feb-18 Alert Normal Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Jan-18 Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Dec-17 Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Nov-17 Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Oct-17 - Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019 Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming • Crops have wilted in Beitbridge and Chiredzi while twelve districts have already reported deterio- ration of the household access to food, where on average households were eating an average of 2 meals a day. This is linked to poor school attendance, ranked in the Alert category for five (5) districts, mainly due to lack of fees, which may suggest that households were prioritising using the available money to buy food over payment of school fees. Coordination with humanitarian organisa- tions for possible food assistance to the needy should be encouraged at all level, to ensure the those in critical need for humanitarian assistance (including school feeding) are prioritised. • The ZRBF consortia should be encouraged to coordinate with other development partners to fa- cilitate provision of supplementary feeding to livestock in Zvishavane, Chiredzi, Matobo, Lupane, Mberengwa, Mwenezi, Nkayi and Umzingwane, to prevent further cattle poverty death. Farmers should be implored to destock non-productive stock and remain with a herd they can manage to provide supplementary feeds. • The general wave of price increases across different commodities was a response to inflation and the increases in fuel prices. Farmers should be encouraged to invest their proceeds in assets or where possible to save in foreign currency, to lock the value of their earnings. • Mudzi and Mberengwa reported FMD cases. Farmers should be encouraged to report the suspected FMD cases, seek FMD vaccinations and abide by the cattle movement restrictions regulations to avoid the spread of the disease. • All the districts should embed public health awareness campaigns against water borne disease in their mainstream program activities, reinforcing critical messages such as, use safe drinking water, handwashing at critical times, proper use of toilets and use of oral rehydration solution while -seek ing immediate medical treatment at the nearest health centre. • Distance to water sources for households put under the Emergency category in Mberengwa and under Alert category for 11 out of the 15 districts, the ZRBF consortia partners should coordinate with other development partners to facilitate rehabilitation of boreholes to reduce households and livestock trekking distances for water. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019 Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index No VCI data was available due to overcast conditions during PROBA image acquisition days for Zimbabwe. Real-time water levels in major rivers The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had low flow rates indicat- ing low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. The rain season has started across the country and Table 3 show that there was no flooding risk in all the districts. Table 3: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, January 2019. River Site Level Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 0.535m Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 1.150m Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge 2.73m Normal Musengezi Centenary 0.380m Normal Musengezi Chidodo 2.58m Normal Save Condo Dam 0.258m Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe No data Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators • The micro-indicator data from the 18 districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, bio- physical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month. • Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in 12 out of 15 districts which reported. Up from 10 in December. Two (2) districts were in the Alarm stage resulting from effect on pasture availability and state of water sources which are in the alarm stage. • Production indicators were in the Alert category for 13 districts. This was mainly due to the deteriorating live- stock body condition as well as the high cases of common diarrhoea which are in emergency for 16 districts. Mutoko has seven (7) reported cholera cases. • Access indicators were mainly in the Alert category in 12 out of 15 districts which reported. Mberengwa dis- trict was in alarm stage where households were travelling 9.4 km to access water for household use. • Seven (7) districts out of the 15 which reported were in the Alarm stage for trade indicators. This was mainly due to the sharp increase in the goat and cattle prices where a goat sells for 120 dollars in Umzingwane and cattle prices were averaging 1000 dollars per beast. Nyanga and Nkayi were in the emergency category due to a sharp increase in livestock prices.and cattle in Umguza trek an average of 10km for water • Five (5) districts out of the 15 which reported were in the Alarm stage for trade indicators. This was mainly due to the sharp increase in the goat and cattle prices where a goat sells for 120 dollars in Umzingwane and cattle prices were averaging 1000 dollars per beast.