Bulletin #21 • February 2019 • www.zrbf.co.zw

The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url

Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 5 The bulletin contains official information for the month of January 2019 collected Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Indicators 5 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 6 Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi.sithole@ Signals 10 undp.org), Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil (rufael. Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water [email protected]). level in selected rivers 11

UNDP , ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

Overall Results and Implications

Summary Classification

Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, 15 districts were rated “Alert” and the remaining three did not report. The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of January 2018 were: 1. Cattle price in , Bubi, Chiredzi, , Lupane, Matobo, Mudzi, , Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and 2. Cholera Reported Cases in Mutoko 3. Common Diarrhea reported Cases in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 4. Crop condition in Beitbridge 5. Crops pest and diseases outbreaks in Beitbridge 6. Distances to water sources for households in Mberengwa 7. FMD reported cases in Mberengwa 8. Goat Price in Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 9. Indigenous chicken price in Chiredzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Umguza and Umzingwane 10. Maize price in Bubi, Chiredzi, Mudzi, Nkayi and Umzingwane 11. Number of livestock poverty deaths in Zvishavane 12. Pastures availability in Beitbridge 13. Pearl millet price in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi, Umguza and Zvishavane 14. Rapoko price in Mudzi 15. Sorghum price in Bubi, Insiza, Matobo, Nkayi, Umguza and Zvishavane

Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019 Zvishavane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Umzingwane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Umguza No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Nyanga No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Nkayi No

Data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Mwenezi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mutoko

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Mudzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Mbire

No No

data data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Mberengwa

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Matobo

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Lupane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal No No

data data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Insiza

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Chiredzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Binga No No

data data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Bubi -

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Beitbridge

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Month Jan-18 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-17 July 18 Feb-18 Nov 18 Nov Dec-18 Dec-17 Aug-18 Nov-17 Mar-18 May-18 Sept-18 June-18 April-18 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 16 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts 1: Overall Classification Table Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming

• Crops have wilted in Beitbridge and Chiredzi while twelve districts have already reported deterio- ration of the household access to food, where on average households were eating an average of 2 meals a day. This is linked to poor school attendance, ranked in the Alert category for five (5) districts, mainly due to lack of fees, which may suggest that households were prioritising using the available money to buy food over payment of school fees. Coordination with humanitarian organisa- tions for possible food assistance to the needy should be encouraged at all level, to ensure the those in critical need for humanitarian assistance (including school feeding) are prioritised.

• The ZRBF consortia should be encouraged to coordinate with other development partners to fa- cilitate provision of supplementary feeding to livestock in Zvishavane, Chiredzi, Matobo, Lupane, Mberengwa, Mwenezi, Nkayi and Umzingwane, to prevent further cattle poverty death. Farmers should be implored to destock non-productive stock and remain with a herd they can manage to provide supplementary feeds.

• The general wave of price increases across different commodities was a response to inflation and the increases in fuel prices. Farmers should be encouraged to invest their proceeds in assets or where possible to save in foreign currency, to lock the value of their earnings.

• Mudzi and Mberengwa reported FMD cases. Farmers should be encouraged to report the suspected FMD cases, seek FMD vaccinations and abide by the cattle movement restrictions regulations to avoid the spread of the disease.

• All the districts should embed public health awareness campaigns against water borne disease in their mainstream program activities, reinforcing critical messages such as, use safe drinking water, handwashing at critical times, proper use of toilets and use of oral rehydration solution while -seek ing immediate medical treatment at the nearest health centre.

• Distance to water sources for households put under the Emergency category in Mberengwa and under Alert category for 11 out of the 15 districts, the ZRBF consortia partners should coordinate with other development partners to facilitate rehabilitation of boreholes to reduce households and livestock trekking distances for water. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators

Vegetation Condition Index No VCI data was available due to overcast conditions during PROBA image acquisition days for Zimbabwe.

Real-time water levels in major rivers

The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had low flow rates indicat- ing low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. The rain season has started across the country and Table 3 show that there was no flooding risk in all the districts.

Table 3: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, January 2019.

River Site Level Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 0.535m Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 1.150m Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge 2.73m Normal Musengezi Centenary 0.380m Normal Musengezi Chidodo 2.58m Normal Save Condo Dam 0.258m Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe No data

Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators

• The micro-indicator data from the 18 districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, bio- physical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month.

• Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in 12 out of 15 districts which reported. Up from 10 in December. Two (2) districts were in the Alarm stage resulting from effect on pasture availability and state of water sources which are in the alarm stage.

• Production indicators were in the Alert category for 13 districts. This was mainly due to the deteriorating live- stock body condition as well as the high cases of common diarrhoea which are in emergency for 16 districts. Mutoko has seven (7) reported cholera cases.

• Access indicators were mainly in the Alert category in 12 out of 15 districts which reported. Mberengwa dis- trict was in alarm stage where households were travelling 9.4 km to access water for household use.

• Seven (7) districts out of the 15 which reported were in the Alarm stage for trade indicators. This was mainly due to the sharp increase in the goat and cattle prices where a goat sells for 120 dollars in Umzingwane and cattle prices were averaging 1000 dollars per beast. Nyanga and Nkayi were in the emergency category due to a sharp increase in livestock prices.and cattle in Umguza trek an average of 10km for water

• Five (5) districts out of the 15 which reported were in the Alarm stage for trade indicators. This was mainly due to the sharp increase in the goat and cattle prices where a goat sells for 120 dollars in Umzingwane and cattle prices were averaging 1000 dollars per beast. Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

Table 4: Trigger Indicator summary for January 2019

District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Alert Bubi Alert Normal Alert Alarm Chiredzi Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Insiza Alert Alert Alert Alarm Lupane Alert Alert Alert Alert Matobo Alarm Alert Alert Alert Mberengwa Alert Alert Alarm Alert Mudzi Normal Alert Alert Alarm Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Alert Mwenezi Alert Normal Alert Alert Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Emergency Nyanga Alert Alert Alert Emergency Umguza Alert Alert Normal Alarm Umzingwane Alert Alert Normal Alarm Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Alarm

Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update

Biophysical Trigger indicators

Table 5: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for January 2019

Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 1 0 3 Bubi 3 54 2 Chiredzi 2 39.17 2 Insiza 2 20 3 Lupane 3 81 3 Matobo 2 11 2 Mberengwa 2 44.09 3 Mudzi 4 276.5 4 Mutoko 4 210 3 Mwenezi 2 75.83 3 Nkayi No data 93.5 No data Nyanga 4 133 3 Umguza 3 212 2 Umzingwane 4 55 2 Zvishavane 3 82.33 3

• Pasture availability was in Emergency category in one (1) district and improvement from six (6) last month. Five (5) districts were in the Alarm category, down from seven (7) in the previous month. Four (4) Districts were in the Alert category.

• Rainfall was in Alert category in four (4) districts which received between 100mm- 300mm. Mudzi recorded the highest rainfall of 276.5mm. The rest of the districts were Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

in the normal category having received below 100mm rainfall. Only Beitbridge did not receive any rainfall during the month.

• Five (5) districts were in the Alarm category for State of water sources while eight (8) districts were in the Alert category.

Production Trigger indicators

Table 6: Production trigger indicator summary for January 2019

Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Condition Livestock Body Number Livestock Reported Cases of Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Poverty Deaths Livestock Diseases of Waterborne Outbreaks Diseases Beitbridge 0 0 2 0 47 455 Bubi 3 3 3 0 18 112 Chiredzi 3 1 2 93 1200 1015 Insiza 3 1 2 0 0 134 Lupane 2 3 2 20 2 150 Matobo 3 2 2 71 38 334 Mberengwa 2 3 2 15 130 543 Mudzi 1 3 2 0 -1 729 Mutoko 2 4 3 0 0 528 Mwenezi 2 3 2 14 0 498 Nkayi 3 2 No data 11 4 184 Nyanga 2 3 3 0 318 432 Umguza 3 3 2 0 17 477 Umzingwane 3 3 2 8 5 229 Zvishavane 3 1 2 143 126 488

• Eight (8) districts were in the normal category. Five (5) districts were in the Alert category and one was in the Alarm category. Beitbridge was in the Emergency category where two irrigation schemes were affected by FAW. • Crop condition was in Alarm category in three (3) districts, Alert in two (2) and the rest were in Nor- mal category. Dryland crops were affected by the poor rains, high heat units resulting in moisture loss in 8 wards of Chiredzi where crops had wilted. was in the Emergency category • There was a slight improvement in livestock body condition mainly due to the slight improvement in pasture availability. Eleven districts were in the Alert category and three (3) were in the normal. • Livestock poverty deaths were in the Alarm stage in five (5) districts, with Chiredzi and Matobo recording 93 and 71 deaths respectively. recorded 143 deaths, putting it in the Emergency category. • Six (6) districts were in the Alert category for livestock diseases. Four (4) districts were in the Alarm stage mainly due to new castle which had 1200 cases in Chiredzi and 300 cases in Nyanga. Mudzi and Mberengwa were in the Emergency category, Mberengwa recorded one (1) case of FMD. • All 15 districts which reported cases of diarrhoeal diseases were in the emergency category. Mudzi recorded seven (7) cases of cholera whilst the rest of the districts recorded high cases of common diarrhoea Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

Access Trigger Indicators

Table 7: Access trigger indicator summary for January 2019

Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 1 2 No data 5 Bubi 2.5 2 4 3 Chiredzi 1.33 2 3 2.03 Insiza 3 3 3 3 Lupane 3 2 3 4 Matobo 3 2 3 4 Mberengwa 9.4 2 No data 2.42 Mudzi 3 2 4 2 Mutoko 0.4 2 2 0.5 Mwenezi 1.44 2 3 1.32 Nkayi No data 2 4 No data Nyanga 2 2 4 2 Umguza 2.5 3 4 1.5 Umzingwane 2.5 3 4 1.5 Zvishavane 1.26 2 No data 1.85

• Distance to water sources was in the Alert category for 11 out of the 15 districts. Households in Mberengwa were travelling an average of 9.4km resulting in the Emergency categorisation.

• One (1) district; Beitbridge was in the alarm stage on livestock trekking distance for water down from two (2) districts last month. Eight districts were in the alert category.

• School attendance was in the Alert category for five (5) districts mainly due to lack of fees children were being sent home. The rest were in the Normal except for Mutoko which was in the Alarm category.

• Twelve districts where households were eating an average of 2 meals a day, were in the Alert cat- egory. Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

Trade Trigger Indicators

Table 8: Trade trigger indicator summary for January 2019

Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Mil- Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price let Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 700 50 10 10 12 No data 80 10 Bubi 1000 80 10 12 15 No data 100 15 Chiredzi 603.33 71.33 12.13 10.67 11.08 13.17 100.33 9.67 Insiza 900 70 10 10 15 15 80 12 Lupane 1000 50 10 10 12 15 60 10 Matobo 650 50 8 10 12 20 60 15 Mberengwa 550 80 7 10 15 12 150 10 Mudzi 650 65 10 12 18 25 95 10 Mutoko 650 50 15 10 12 18 65 10 Mwenezi 704.17 80 10.58 9.96 9.17 19.08 125 8.54 Nkayi 750 80 15 15 16 No data 90 15 Nyanga 800 No data No data No data No data No data No data No data Umguza 2000 120 15 10 15 No data 120 15 Umzingwane 1200 120 15 15 8 8 150 10 Zvishavane 1000 80 10 10 15 14 100 10

• Cattle prices were in the Emergency category for 14 districts up from twelve last month as prices of cattle continue to rise. A beast in Umguza is trading at 2000 dollars up from 100 dollars in December • Goat prices were ranging between 50 and 120 dollars resulting in 10 districts being in the Emergency category. Of note was Umzingwane, where a goat sold for 120 dollars. • Pearl millet prices shot up in 12 districts resulting in Emergency categorisation. Sorghum prices were in the emergency category for five (5) districts. • The price increases in all the highlighted commodities was mainly due to the weakening of the bond notes against the US dollar and a response to the general increase in prices of goods following in- creases in fuel prices during the month. Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning Signals

• How This Female Entrepreneur Is Using Tech to Fight Food Shortage in Zimbabwe 22 January 2019 https://weetracker.com/2019/01/22/how-this-female-entrepreneur-is-using-tech-to-fight-food- shortage-in-zimbabwe/

• Millers have enough stocks to meet nation’s demands 23 January 2019 https://www.chronicle.co.zw/millers-have-enough-stocks-to-meet-nations-demands/

• Zimbabwe Seeks Wiser Ways to Use Water Amid Erratic Rains 24 January 2019 https://www.forbesafrica.com/agriculture/2019/01/24/zimbabwe-seeks-wiser-ways-to-use-water- amid-erratic-rains/

• Zimbabwe’s livestock production prospects dim 24 January 2019 https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2019/01/24/zim-s-livestock-production-prospects-dim

• Zimbabwe food shortages warning 25 January 2019 https://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-national-byo-154560.html

• Farmers must switch to small grains: WFP 28 January 2019 https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2019/01/28/farmers-must-switch-to-small-grains-wfp

• Humanitarian Action for Children 2019 – Zimbabwe 29 January 2019 https://reliefweb.int/report/zimbabwe/humanitarian-action-children-2019-zimbabwe

• NUST, WFP sign MoU on research and food security 30 January 2019 https://www.chronicle.co.zw/nust-wfp-sign-mou-on-research-and-food-security/ Page 11 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #21 | February 2019

Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers

Table 8: River water flow categorisation

Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%