Bulletin #41 • October 2020 • www.zrbf.co.zw IN THIS REPORT Overall Results and Implications The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail Status Update Macro-Indicators real time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for the activation of the crisis modifier, performance Vegetation Condition Index monitoring, programming and other decisions for the overall ZRBF Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger adaptive programme management. Information presented in this Indicators bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Database, accessible using this urlhttps://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php . Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and The bulletin contains official information for the month of October 2020 Proposed Mitigatory Activities collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by Biophysical Trigger indicators ZRBF PMU. The High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of Production Trigger indicators collaboration between the ZRBF Partners and other government Access Trigger Indicators agencies. For questions and comments regarding this bulletin, kindly Trade Trigger Indicators get in touch with Vhusomuzi Sithole ([email protected]), Shupikai Mutyambizi ([email protected] ). 1 UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe +263 4 338836-44 Table of Contents 1. Overall Results and Implicaons .......................................................................................................... 3 2. Status Update Macro-Indicators ............................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Vegetaon Condion Index ......................................................................................................... 5 3.Summary of Broad Classificaon: Micro Trigger Indicators ..................................................................... 6 Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Migatory Acvies .......................................... 7 4.1. Biophysical Trigger indicators ...................................................................................................... 7 4.2 Producon Trigger indicators ........................................................................................................ 8 4.3 Access Trigger Indicators ............................................................................................................... 9 4.4 Trade Trigger Indicators .............................................................................................................. 10 1. Overall Results and Implicaons Summary Classifi caon Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classificaon, all the 18 districts were in the Alert category. The following micro indicators, which in the Emergency Stage, drove this overall classificaon. • Cale price in Beitbridge • Common diarrhoea reported cases in Nkayi and Umguza • Pastures availability in Chiredzi, Mutoko and Mwenezi. • State of water sources in Zvishavane 3 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classificaon of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. Table 1: Overall Classificaon of the 18 districts Month Beitbridge Bubi Binga Chiredzi Insiza Kariba Lupane Matobo Mberengwa Mbire Mudzi Mutoko Mwenezi Nkayi Nyanga Umguza Umzingwane Zvishavane Sept-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Aug-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert July-20 Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm June 20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert May 20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Apri-20 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Mar-20 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Feb-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Jan-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Dec-19 Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Nov-19 Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Oct-19 Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Sept-19 Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert 4 2. Status Update Macro-Indicators 2.1 Vegetaon Condion Index Figure 1: Vegetaon Condion Index for September 2020 The Vegetaon Condion Index shows a generally reduced vegetaon condion across the country. In September 2020, 14 districts were in Alarm, 1 in Alert and 3 in the Normal categories as shown below: a) Normal (Mudzi, Mutoko and Nyanga) Crisis District VCI value b) Alert (Bubi), and Modifier c) Alarm (Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Beitbridge 0.38 Alarm Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Binga 0.43 Alarm Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane). Bubi 0.50 Alert Chiredzi 0.35 Alarm Insiza 0.39 Alarm Kariba 0.38 Alarm Lupane 0.32 Alarm Matobo 0.41 Alarm Mberengwa 0.28 Alarm Mbire 0.36 Alarm Mudzi 0.78 Normal Mutoko 0.68 Normal Mwenezi 0.32 Alarm Nkayi 0.34 Alarm Nyanga 0.74 Normal Umguza 0.42 Alarm Umzingwane 0.37 Alarm Zvishavane 0.38 Alarm 5 3.Summary of Broad Classificaon: Micro Trigger Indicators The micro-indicator data from the 17 reported districts reflects that condions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, producon and access indicators, are mostly in the Alert category. Kariba district did not report for the month of September. ▪ Biophysical indicators are in Alarm in Beitbridge, Binga and Mwenezi Districts, This categorisaon is mainly due to Pasture availability which is in Emergency (crically inadequate) and is inadequate in the rest of the districts. State of water sources which have depleted and are in Alarm and Alert. The rest of the districts are in Alert Stage for Bio Physical indicators ▪ Producon indicators in seven (7) districts are in the Alert category up from (5) in the previous month. Livestock body condion is deteriorang in all districts ▪ Access indicators are in the Alarm category in Nyanga and Umzingwane districts, and in Alert for the rest of the 15 districts which reported. These categorisaons are mainly due to an increase of districts in Alarm for Number of meals a day, distance to water sources for households and water for livestock trekking distances. ▪ Two (2) districts are in Alert category for Trade indicators down from five in August, Fourteen districts are reporng trade indicators in USD and Rands as the market has resorted to the use of the foreign currency to manage the increase of prices in the ZWD. The rest of the districts are in the normal category as farmers have resorted to selling their commodies in foreign currency at prevailing market rates. Mbire and Beitbridge are in the Alert category as their commodies prices fall below the normal thresholds especially cale prices which are extremely low in Beitbridge. Table 2: Trigger Indicator summary for September 2020 District Biophysical Indicators Producon Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alarm Normal Alert Alert Binga Alarm Normal Alert Normal Bubi Alert Alert Alert Normal Chiredzi Alert Normal Alert Normal Insiza Alert Normal Alert Normal Lupane Alert Normal Alert Normal Matobo Alert Alert Alert Normal Mberengwa Alert Normal Alert Normal Mbire Alert Normal Alert Alert Mudzi Alert Normal Alert Normal Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Normal Mwenezi Alarm Normal Alert Normal Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Normal Nyanga Alert Alert Alarm Normal Umguza Alert Alert Alert Normal Umzingwane Alert Alert Alarm Normal 6 Zvishavane Alert Normal Alert Normal Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Migatory Acvies 4.1. Biophysical Trigger indicators Table 3: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for September 2020 Biophysical Indicators Pastures State of Water District Rainfall Mid-season Dry Spells Availability Sources Beitbridge 2 No data 3 0 Binga 2 No data 2 0 Bubi 2 0 2 0 Chiredzi 1 9 3 0 Insiza 2 0 3 0 Lupane 2 0 2 0 Matobo 2 7 3 0 Mberengwa 2 0.44 2 0 Mbire 2 0 2 0 Mudzi 2 0 3 0 Mutoko 1 0 4 0 Mwenezi 1 1.12 2 0 Nkayi 2 0 2 0 Nyanga No data 0 2 0 Umguza 2 0 2 0 Umzingwane 2 0 2 0 Zvishavane 2 0 1 0 ▪ Pasture availability is in the Emergency category in three (3) districts where the remaining pastures will last only a month. 14 districts are in the Alarm category with pastures expected to last 1-3 months. Nyanga district did not report pasture availability data. ▪ Zvishavane district is I the Emergency category for State of water sources where less than 30% of boreholes are funconal. Ten districts are in the Alarm category. This means that 30-65% of the boreholes are funconal. Five (5) districts are in the Alert category meaning 65%-85% of the boreholes are funconal and only Mutoko district is in the normal category with 85% of the boreholes funconing. Proposed Migaon Acvies As pastures deplete in almost every district,