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Is Access to Space Really a Hurdle?

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Is Access to Space Really a Hurdle? Changing the economics of space Is Access to Space Really a hurdle? Gerry Webb – Commercial Space Technologies Alex da Silva Curiel , John Paffett - Surrey Overview and Rationale • Small satellite launch often reported as hurdle – Is this really the case? • Review of “what was launched” • Analysis • Review of available small launchers 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 2 Categories Large Large Satellites 500kg (1100Lb) Mini 100kg (220Lb) Small Micro Satellites Mini 10kg (22Lb) Micro Nano/Pico Nano Pico 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 3 Overview of recent satellite launches 1/2 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 Downward trend1991 in the annual number of satellites launched 1992 1993 1994 Iridium, Globalstar and 1995 1996 Orbcomm 1997 >500kg Mini 1998 Mic r o 1999 Nano 23 rd Year 2000 Annual AIAA/USU Confer 2001 2002 2003 2004 ence on Small Satellites 2005 2006 2007 2008 4 Overview of recent satellite launches 2/2 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1990 1991 1992 Increasing1993 trend towards launch of smaller satellites 1994 1995 1996 1997 >500kg Mini 1998 Mic r o 1999 Nano 23 Year 2000 rd Annual AIAA/USU Confer 2001 2002 2003 2004 ence on Small Satellites 2005 2006 2007 2008 5 Overview of small satellite launches Modern small satellites Start of commercialisation Nano and picosatellites 80 Mini 70 Mic r o 60 Nano 50 40 30 24 20 10 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Aug 2009 Satellites under 500 kg launched during 1970-2008 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 6 “The Hurdle” 1. ‘Small’ launchers are optimised for payloads above 500 kg and cost around US$15-20M on average – Some market distortion due to converted missile launchers 2. Availability – Satellites with masses under 150 kg are becoming an increasingly important part of the market. – Move away from space fairing governments as launch customer • A large proportion of satellites under 100 kg in mass are being built by universities, small private companies, scientific satellites, and by/for non-space fairing nations, to whom the cost of launching is a significant factor. 3. Politics – Few, if any, nationally funded satellites are launched abroad 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 7 Launched Payload Capabilities (operational) Launch price, US Payload capabilities, kg $M Average specific price Launch vehicle (country) for LEO, US $ K/kg LEO Polar SSO min max Dnepr 1 (Russia/Ukraine) 3,650 2,700 2,300 10 12 3.1 * Cosmos 3M (Russia) 1,410 980 770 6 8 5 * PSLV (India) 3,700 1,550 1,200 15 25 5 Rockot (Russia) 1,850 1,400 1,000 10 12 5.5 CZ-2C/SD (China) 2,800 1,580 1,400 20 25 9 Start 1 Russia) 632 450 167 6 8 10 Delta 2 (USA) 5,102 3,828 3,186 55 69 10 Taurus standard (USA) 1,380 1,070 660 18 20 13 Minotaur (USA) 639 490 340 12 12.5 20 Falcon-1 (USA) 400 260 220 8.5 9.5 20 Shavit (Israel) 550 350 415 10 15 20 M 5 (Japan) 1,800 1,300 n.a. 55 60 30 Pegasus XL (USA) 440 330 190 14 15 30 Cyclone-3 (Russia- 3,600 Not serviced Not serviced 15 20 5.0 Ukraine) Soyuz-FG(ST) (Russia) 7,500 Not serviced Not serviced 20 30 3.5 Ariane 5 (Europe) 18,000 Not serviced Not serviced 120 150 7.5 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 8 Launched payload Capabilities (planned) Average specific Launch vehicle LEO payload Launch price, launch price, Notes (country) capability, kg US$M, min/max US$ K/kg Shtil-1 Two successful 150 1 6 (Russia) launches Shtil-2 Proposed improvement 250 Supposedly 4/5 18 (Russia) of Shtil-1 Start Single failed 900 9/10 10.1 (Russia) launch SLV (Russia) 600 Planned 2014 Strela-1 Single successful 1,600 8/9 5.6 (Russia) launch VLS Two failed 380 6.5/8.5 19.5 (Brazil) launches KT-1 Two failed (Kaituozhe-1) 1,000 Supposedly 6.5 6.5 launches (China) Angara 1.1 Would be tested 2,000 15/20 9.3 (Russia) in 2010 Vega Would be tested 2,160 17.5/20 8.7 (Europe) in 2009 Soyuz-1 (Russia) 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 9 Launch methods • Dedicated (15% in ‘06) “1st class flexible ticket” – Customer has full control – Responsive access only possible if launchers are dedicated (but not many launchers correctly sized) • Shared (30% in ‘06) “Business charter” – Some control if correct partners found – Cheaper than dedicated – Regular small satellite manufacturers such as SSTL can occupy 2 or more spaces and sell the others to reduce the costs of what amounts to the equivalent of a dedicated launch • Piggy-back (45% in ‘06) “Economy class” – Lowest launch prices – Least control over final orbit or time of launch – Some launch operators provide a standardised platform – Obligation to be ready on schedule (with dummies, etc.) 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 10 Prime, secondary, and batch Launch • Prime, secondary or shared launch more common for minisatellites • Batch launch for constellations Batch: ORCOMM on Pegasus Prime: TUBSAT-1 nanosat launched on SHTIL Prime: APEX on Pegasus 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 11 Piggyback launch • Uses spare launcher capacity, sometimes replacing ballast • Most common for microsats and nanosats FAISAT and Astrid-1 on NADEZDA spacecraft FASAT and Techsat on SICH-1 spacecraft MEPSI tethered Cubesats deployed from Space Shuttle 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 12 Piggyback launch - Standard Interfaces • ARIANE ASAP structure – Was 6 slots @ 50kg, 400x400x600mm – Now 8 slots @120kg, 600x600x800mm – Commercially available, but few LEO launches • EELV ESPA ring – 6 slots @185kg – 580x580x965mm – US DOD use only, not many launches 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 13 Launch - Cluster • Capacity shared by number of often unrelated smallsat missions Minotaur with PICOSAT, Starshine, Saphire and PCSAT COSMOS-3M with UK-DMC, BILSAT, NigeriaSat-1, STSAT-1, Larets and Mozhaets. DNEPR with Tiungsat, Megsat, Unisat 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites DNEPR with Demeter, Unisat, Saudisats 14 Launch methods 100% Subsat piggy 80% batch shared prime 60% 40% 20% 0% 19901990 1991 1992 1993 19941995 1995 1996 1997 1998 19992000 2000 2001 2002 2003 20042005 2005 2006 2007 2008 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 15 Prices • As satellites get smaller, the specific launch costs generally get proportionally greater and for masses under 50 kg, administrative costs (A) begin to become an important consideration. Thus costs for a piggy-back launch would be: – for a 100 kg S/C, 1.5 - 3.5 million dollars +A – for a 10 kg S/C, 150-350 thousand dollars +A • Specific launch prices vary for the launchers of different countries, and this significantly influences their share of the world market. At the moment, Russia is still able to benefit from this, but political considerations are also significant 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 16 100% Market share of smallsat launches 80% 60% 40% 20% Brazil Israel Japan China 0% India Europe 1990 USA 1991 Russia 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 23 rd 1997 Annual AIAA/USU Confer 1998 1999 2000 ence on Small Satellites2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 17 Optimistic model for 2015 Launch Developer Planned Launch Payload Propellant Launch Operator Supposed Status of vehicle year of first mass, capability, site or launch development (system) launch tons tons basic price, (orbit) airfield US$ mln Shtil-2.1 Makeev Presumably, 46+ 0.1-0.2 Liquid Submarine Makeev Around 5 The maiden launch is (Shtil-2) SRC 2007 (circ. (NT+UDMH) SRC planned for 2007 H=200km, i=70deg.) Angara- Khrunichev 2010 145 2.0(circ. Liquid(LOX+Ker.) Plesetsk ILS 20 (?) Final on-ground 1.1 H=200km, testing, launch site in i=63deg.) construction Angara- Khrunichev 2012(?) 167 3.5(circ. Liquid(LOX+Ker.) Plesetsk ILS 25 (?) The same as for 1.2 H=200km, Angara-1.1 but i=63deg.) second stage in development Soyuz-1 TsSKB 2015(?) 136 2.4(circ. Liquid Vostochny ? ? Not clear yet “Progress” H=200km I=63deg) Polyot Makeev 2010 102 (for 3.0 (circ. Liquid(LOX+Ker.) Khorol, Air Launch 20-27 Completion of design (Air SRC launcher) H=200km, Biak Island Corp. development, carrier Launch) i=90deg.) aircraft were 1.65(GTO) purchased 0.8 (GEO) Ishim MIT/MiG (2-3years 10.3 (for 0.16(circ. Solid Baikonur Kazkosmos 3-5 Completion of after launcher) H=300km, (Yubileiny) engineering project, development i=46deg.) further development resumption) is presumably suspended M-55X Myasistchev 2010-2012 3-5 (for 0.1-0.2 Solid Akhtubinsk Sub-orbital 1-2 Completion of Cargo VMZ (?) launcher) (circ. (?) Corp (?) preliminary project H=200km, i=0- 90deg.) Mayak-12 “Yuzhnoye” 2012-2015 130 2.5(circ. Liquid Baikonur “Yuzhnoye” 22-25 (?) Development of NPO (?) H=500km, (LOX+Ker.) (?) NPO engineering project i=50deg.) • Mixed FSU origins • Surprises possible (particularly in micro-launchers) • Start? Other MIT developments? 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 18 Is launch a hurdle? • Yes, but…… – Many opportunities – Many organisations succeed FALCON-1 launcher, SpaceX – Its is also rocket science UK-DMC-2, Deimos-1, Aprizesat- 3, 4 on DNEPR (Jul09) 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 19 Changing the economics of space DMC launch 30 Aug 2009 Recent DMC additions • Launch 30th July 2009 – Deimos-1 for Deimos Imaging (Spain) – UK-DMC2 for DMCii (UK) – Both spacecraft operational • Imager commissioning phase • DMC – 3 government satellite owners – 3 commercial satellite owners – Next launch NX in 2010 Second Generation Constellation Daily imaging, Wide swath, Large area – High Resolution • 22m 3-band multispectral • 660km swath – X-band downlink – Enhanced along track imaging – Direct downlink to user station 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 21 Deimos-1 First results • 1 week after launch 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 22 UK-DMC-2 – First results • Within 1 week after launch Hokkaido, Japan, 5 Aug 09 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 23 23rd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites 24.
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