ALSOAVAILABLE IN THIS SEFIIES: STATIST¡CS AND NATIONAL POLIGY Supplement 3 (974) to the StatisticalAbstract of Latin America by James W. Wilkie This volume adds several new dimensions to the economic change since 1950. Because data in Part UCLA Latin American Center statistical research ll are presented simply to exemplify the kinds of and publication program. ln presenting an anthol- statistics we need to develop in order to understand ogy of Professor Wilkie's essays together with se- the bottlenecks in state planning and state action, lected sets of historical statistics developed for the data in this section are not generally analyzed. But study of contemporary Latin America, the scope since the intent of this work is to place historical of the program has been expanded to offer data statistics into one important perspective, the range with longer time-series perspectives than hitherto and problems of data presented in the volume is pu blished. sampled in the lntroduction and Afterword. Part lll, ln contrast lo Measuring Land Reform, which also is designed to further illustrate the complex (Gross concerns the generation "time-series (i.e., meaning in one type of data National Prod- of data" presented data listed on a year-by-year or period-by-period uct) in Part ll. Part offers brief case study in the use of basis), this work ís concerned with presenting and lll a historical to understand na- testing available time-series data needed for recon- statistics outcomes of tional policy in an international sphere. Figures on ceptualizing and analyzing the informational infra- economic growth in Latin America are analyzed in structure in which twentieth-century decisions of relation importance United policy, national policy to the of States are made. Although the six essays particularly with of Part I (which regard to the historical role of the stand as originally written for six Alliance for Progress. Professor Wilkie's purpose different publications) illustrate themes statistical is to show how available time-series data can help that give the past immediate an importance for us to test such commonly accepted assumptions those who seek to understand the present and/or as the following: that the economic gap between the plan for the future, Professor Wilkie's introductory United States and Latin America is widening, and and closing problems possí- sections explore and that the Alliance for Progress failed, mainly because bilities for developing the extended use of historical of U.S. policy. statistics. Part I pursues the following topics: politi- ln his Afterword, the author ref lects on the mean- cosocial economy, urbanization, church-state rela- ing of Part lin the perspective of recent events as tions, 1 pu dependency since the 930s, the blic sector, well as on data presented in Parts llancj lll. Special governmental and comparative budgets. attention is devoted to Mexíco, Costa Rica, Vene- Part ll includes yearly time-series data for each zuela, and Bolivia where the author has conducted of the twenty l-atin American countries with regard extensive f ield research. Price, softbound, $15 to population statistics since 1900, education en- .1930, your rollments since food and agricultural pro- Order from book dealer or directly from duction since 1952, energy supplies 1929, since Media Production inflation since 1929, exchange rates since 1915, balance of payments since 1956, exports and im- UCLA Latin American Center ports since 1916, major trading partners since 1915, University of Cal ifornia U.S. assistance to Latin America since 1946. and Los Angeles, Ca. 90024 THE UCLA STATISTICAL ABSTRACT OF LATIN AMERICA: SUPPLEMENT SERIES Kenneth Ruddle. Series Editor 1. CUBA 1968. C. Paul Roberts and Mukhtar Hamour (eds.), 1970. 2. LATIN AMERICAN POLITICAL STATISTICS. Kenneth Ruddle and Philip Gillette (eds.), 1972. 3. STATISTICS AND NATIONAL POLICY. James W. Wilkie, 1974. 4. URBANIZATION lN 1gth-CENTURY LATIN AMERICA. Richard E. Boyer and Keith A. Davis, 1973. 5. MEASURING LAND REFORM. James W. Wilkie, 1974. b. METHODOLOGY lN OUANTITATIVE LATIN AMERICAN STUDIES. (James W. Wilkie and Kenneth Ruddle (eds.), forthcoming. I MEASURING LAND FtEFOFtlvl Supplement to The Statistical Abstract of Latin America /- r1 \.- ---t -'--)r<' s -t-1---t-----t' by Jarnes W. W¡lkie W¡th a Special Map and Graph Series on Land Reform by Richard W. Wilkie and John Marti UCLA Latin American Center UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA . LOS ANGELES Works by James W. Wilkie Measuring Land Reform (1974). S¿atrsrrc.s and National Policy (1974l, . The Mexican Revolution: Federal Expenditure and Social Change Since 1gl0 (1g67, 1 970). The Bolivian Revolution and U.S. Aid Since 1952 (19691 . Elitelore (1973). México Visto en el Siglo XX: Entrevistas de Historia Oral (1969), Coauthored with Edna Monzoñ de Wilkie. Revolution in Mexico: Years of upheaval, 1910-1940 (i969), Coedited with Albert L. M ichae ls. John Reed's lnsurgent Mexico (1969), Coedited with Albert L. Michaels. Measuring Land Reform Copyright @1974 by The Regents of the University of California lnternational Standard Book Number: 0-g7g03-226-X Library of Congress Catalog Number: 74-620145 Printed in the United States of America DEDICATION TH IS VOLUME IS DEDICATED TO LYLE C. BROWN AND ALBERT L. MICHAELS, COLLEAGUES AND FRIENDS IN MANY RESEARCH ENDEAVORS. FOREWORD by Kenneth Ruddle, Editor Supplement Series, S¿atr'stical Abstract of Latin America This book by Professor James W. Wilkie offers a case study in applied historical statist¡cs. ln contrast with his volume on Statrsfrcs and National Policy, where available historical stat¡st¡cs provide the basls for interpretation, this study concerns the development of time-series data in order to analyze national problems. ln this case, problems arise from the various ways in which statistics are interpreted particularly as a result of governmental self-deception. Statistics on land reform (Chapter i ) are examined in order to provide insights into the nature of data that ¡nteract with policy. Measurement of progress in the redistribution of Bolivian and Vene- zuelan land titles (Chapters 2 and 3) is concerned with inflated stat¡stics and their impact on national policy (Chapter 4). Particularly noteworthy is Professor Wilkie's generation of some of the f irst "hard data" available on Latin American land reform. As Tables 1 and 2 show. by the end of the 1960s Bolivia and Venezuela had carried out some of the most extensive programs of land-title redistribution in Latin America,t being exceeded in activity only by the Mexican program begun decades earlier. By concentrating on the South American experience for which time-series data can be analyzed for at least ten years,tt he has attemptecj to outline the problem of undertaking land reform during the last two decades. lf other counties expect to learn from the experience of their neighbors as they begin to undertake land reform, they must not only know what experience has been, but they must also have a method of evaluating the tempo of land reform. The problem in land reform, then, is seen as one of education, but one that is outside the usual educational terms. Leaders as well as the general populace must learn to think of land reform problems in terms of complexity and "alternative realities." Professor wilkie also makes a distinction between "land reform" (here defined as title distribution) and "agricultural reform" (including such broadly defined activities as extension of education, credit, and irrigation facilities to rural populations. Both terms are subsumed under the concept of "agrarian reform," but the latter involves technological needs and advances which often are predicated upon the very difficult and/or problematic political act of successfully undertaking redistribution of land titles. Although the author of this book does not necessarily favor (a) land reforrn, (b) agricultural reform, or (c) "agrarian revolution" (like that undertaken in Cuba), one of his basic assumptions ¡s that objective means of measurement need to be developed so that process of change may be understood, especially for land reform which has become so prevalent in all of Latin America, and where data are available for analyses. K. R. Los Angeles July, 1974 tCuba is omitted from Dr. Wilkie's analyses, because, since ig63, it has not red¡str¡buted land titles to ¡ts cit¡zens, but has created state farms administered by the lnstituto Nacional de la Reforma Agraria: see United Nations, Progress in Land Reform: Fourth Report (New york: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1966), pp. 78-79. ttThe census bases for Bolivia and Venezuela are 1950 and 1961, respectively, the latest years for which full agricultural as well as population census data were available at the time of writing in 1973. Other data bases and time-series carry through about lg7O. IV PR E FACE The purpose of this study in applied historical statistics is several-fold. First, we are interested in examining available data on the state of Latin America and reform by 1969, data that will form the basis for understanding redistribution of lands beyond the 1960s. Second, in investigating the cases of Bolivia and Venezuela, we may see to what extent published figures are reliable, the development of the time-series data serving as a test of meaning in long-term policy as well as a test for confidence in statistics generated from year to year. Third, in undertaking the above two types of analysis, we may see how alternative views of reality at once reveal difficulties