SOMALIA Rain Watch May 15, 2009 FEWS NET will publish a Rain Watch for Somalia every dekad through the end of the current Gu rains (April-June) rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu rains to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is valid through May 20, 2009 and is produced in collaboration with USGS, the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, a number of other agencies, and several Somali NGOs. Gu rains intensify in southern regions and parts of the north but remains poor in central and northeast. The performance of gu rains continue to be mixed in different parts of the country. Good gu rains ranging from 25 to 75 mm were received in many parts of the southern agricultural regions during the first dekad of May (1‐10), 2009. Recent information from the field confirms that, inl Centra and parts of the North, and Northeast, however, rains received so far in key pastoral areas were localized and poorly distributed. Of particular concern are Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Nugaal, Bari, and Mudug regions which experienced rain failure coupled with strong dry spell. In those regions gu rains normally start in early April and end late June in which heavy downpour is expected in the first two weeks of May. But the current gu season experienced unprecedented and extraordinary delay of the rains, with the exception of sporadic single day showers received in April 15th on few grazing catchments scattered in the areas. These areas attracted huge influx of herders with their stocks using motorized transportation in large scale from drier areas irrespective to administrative borders or security issues downplaying previous clan conflicts. In the drought affected central region of Galgadud, light rainfall which were sporadic and localized were reported along the coastal areas and the copea belt of Harardhere, Elbur and Eldher districts. These rains have attracted huge livestock in migration from the neighboring rain‐deficit areas. In Hiran, most of the region remained dry with no rainfall during the first dekad of the month. Exceptions are, however, parts of southern Halgan pastoral areas and pockets of Bulo‐burto district where moderate but localized rains were reported. Halgan rain guage station recorded 73 mm of rainfall during the dekad. In the north, substantial rains were received in most of Awdal region and Hargeisa. Light to moderate rainfall were reported in Golis of Burao, Sheikh and Ainabo districts, and southeast of Hawd in Buhoodle and Burao districts. Rain gauge data from Burao and Ainabo stations recorded 10mm and 40mm of rainfall respectively. In the south, moderate to heavy rains continue to fall over most of the southern regions of Bay, Bakool, parts of Gedo, the Juba and parts of the Shabelle regions. With the exception Rabdhure district, most of the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihoods in Bay and Bakool regions received very good, intense and well distributed rainfall. Raingauge data from Berdale, Baidoa and Qansahdhere stations indicated 31.5mm, 18mm and 93mm ofl rainfal respectively with two to three rainy days. On the other hand Rabdhure district of Bakool, coastal areas of Juba and Shabelle regions, and northern parts of Gedo reported poor rainfall. By and large the rainfall replenished most water catchments and improved germination and development of crops and pasture in both pastoral and agro pastoral areas of these regions. Water availability and access for both humans and livestock has significantly improved in these areas that received rainfall. This has prompted migrations of pastoralists from riverine and water points into traditional grazing areas in the hinterland. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite imagery shows current vegetation levels in most parts of the southern regions are generally good (Figure 1) for this time of the year, following recent rains. Conversely the situation is appalling in most of central and parts of the North and Northeast. The seven day satellite weather forecast (Figure2) extending up to May 20 calls for moderate rains of up to 50mm in parts of south, central and parts of northwest regions, while Nugaal, parts of Sanaag and Bari regions are expected to receive exceptionally good rains. For more rain gauge data please contact [email protected] or visit http://www.faoswalim.org. FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET Washington Nairobi 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +254 2 350523/24/25 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] Figure 1.Spot NDVI first dekad of May’(1-10), 2009 Figure 2. Seven days forecast valid up to May 20, 2009 Sources: FEWS NET/NOAA/ CPC FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET Washington Nairobi 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +254 2 350523/24/25 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] .