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Bay Bakool Rural Baseline Analysis Report Technical Series Report No VI. !" May 20, 2009 Livelihood Baseline Analysis Bay and Bakool Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Box 1230, Village Market Nairobi, Kenya Tel: 254-20-4000000 Fax: 254-20-4000555 Website: www.fsnau.org Email: [email protected] Technical and Funding Agencies Managerial Support European Commission FSNAU Technical Series Report No VI. 19 ii Issued May 20, 2009 Acknowledgements These assessments would not have been possible without funding from the European Commission (EC) and the US Office of Foreign Disaster and Assistance (OFDA). FSNAU would like to also thank FEWS NET for their funding contributions and technical support made by Mohamed Yusuf Aw-Dahir, the FEWS NET Representative to Soma- lia, and Sidow Ibrahim Addow, FEWS NET Market and Trade Advisor. Special thanks are to WFP Wajid Office who provided office facilities and venue for planning and analysis workshops prior to, and after fieldwork. FSNAU would also like to extend special thanks to the local authorities and community leaders at both district and village levels who made these studies possible. Special thanks also to Wajid District Commission who was giving support for this assessment. The fieldwork and analysis would not have been possible without the leading baseline expertise and work of the two FSNAU Senior Livelihood Analysts and the FSNAU Livelihoods Baseline Team consisting of 9 analysts, who collected and analyzed the field data and who continue to work and deliver high quality outputs under very difficult conditions in Somalia. This team was led by FSNAU Lead Livelihood Baseline Livelihood Analyst, Abdi Hussein Roble, and Assistant Lead Livelihoods Baseline Analyst, Abdulaziz Moalin Aden, and the team of FSNAU Field Analysts and Consultants included, Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud, Abdirahaman Mohamed Yusuf, Abdikarim Mohamud Aden, Nur Moalim Ahmed, Yusuf Warsame Mire, Abdulkadir Mohamed Ahmed, Abdulkadir Mo- hamed Egal and Addo Aden Magan. FSNAU is also indebted to the support of SC-UK for its contribution of one their HEA field practitioner, Abdiwahid Ali Ibrahim, to the assessment. The gender analysis was led by FSNAU Gender Analyst, Faiza Ibrahim Mohamed, with special contributions by Ayoo Odicoh, Gender and HIV/AIDS Co- ordinator, FAO Somalia and Cecilia Kaijser, IASC Gender Advisor OCHA Somalia. This study would not have been possible without the FSNAU Technical Data Analysis Support Team, which includes Research Assistant, Zareen Iqbal, Data Systems Manager Kamau Wanjohi, Data Processor Andrew Mutonyi, GIS Specialist Michael Arunga, and Publications Officer Barasa Sindani, and its Nutrition Team, particularly Project Manager Grainne Moloney and Deputy Project Manager Ahono Busili. A special acknowledgement to FSNAU CTA, Cindy Holleman, for lead support in the baseline analysis, as well as her contributions in the development of FSNAU’s Baseline Livelihood Analysis framework which combines both livelihood assets and livelihood strate- gies, along with sector trend profiling utilizing monitoring data, and the expanded Baseline Livelihood Analysis Report and Profile structure. European Commission FSNAU Technical Series Report No VI. 19 iii Issued May 20, 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. HISTORICAL TIMELINE AND METHODOLOGY 2 2.1 Historical Timeline 2 2.2 Standard Baseline Livelihood Analysis 2 2.3 Expanded Livelihood Baseline Analysis 4 3. BAY AND BAKOOL LIVELIHOOD ZONES OVERVIEW 6 3.1 Southern Inland Pastoral Livelihood Zone (SIP LZ) 6 3.2 Bakool Agro-Pastoral Livelihood Zone (BAP LZ) 7 3.3 Bay Agro-Pastoral High Potential Livelihood Zone (BAPHP LZ) 8 3.4 Bay Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential Livelihood Zone (BBAP LP LZ) 9 4. BAY AND BAKOOL SEASONAL CALENDARS, MARKETS AND TRADE 10 4.1 Seasonal Calendars 10 4.2 Rainfall and Water Availability 11 4.3 Livestock and Livestock Production 11 4.4 Livestock Trade 12 4.5 Livestock Prices 13 4.6 Milk Prices 14 4.7 Cereal Production 15 4.8 Cereal Trade 16 4.9 Cereal Prices 17 4.10 Labour Availability and Wage Rates 18 5. LIVELIHOOD ASSETS 19 5.1 Human Capital 19 5.2 Social Capital 22 5.3 Physical Capital 23 5.4 Financial Capital 25 5.5 Natural Capital 28 6. LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES 32 6.1 Southern Inland Pastoral LZ 32 6.2 Bakool Agro-Pastoral LZ 36 6.3 Bay Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential LZ 40 6.4 Bay Agro-Pastoral High Potential LZ 4 4 7. PER CAPITA CEREAL CONSUMPTION FOR AGRO-PASTORAL AND PASTORAL LIVELIHOODS IN BAY AND BAKOOL REGIONS 49 8. ROLE OF GENDER IN LIVELIHOODS 50 9. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS OF RURAL LIVELIHOODS IN BAY AND BAKOOL REGIONS 52 9.1 Food Security Vulnerability Analysis 52 9.2 Bay Bakool Nutrition Situation 54 9.3 Main Conclusions and Implications for Response 55 10. CONCLUSION 57 11. APPENDICES 59 11.1 Livelihood Strategies for All Livelihoods 59 11.2 A Note on the Traditional Somali Calendar System 71 11.3 Interview Form 1: Livelihood Re-Zoning Key Informant Interview 72 11.4 Interview Form 2A: Trader Interview – FOOD CROPS/STAPLE FOODS 74 11.5 Interview Form 2B: Trader Interview – CASH CROP TRADER 75 11.6 Interview Form 2C: Trader Interview – LIVESTOCK TRADER 76 11.7 Interview Form 3: Community Representatives: General Topics & Wealth Breakdown 77 11.8 Interview Form 4: Wealth Group Interview 81 11.9 Glossary 91 FSNAU Technical Series Report No VI. 19 iv Issued May 20, 2009 LIST OF MAPS Map 1: Old Bay-Bakool Livelihood Zones 1 Map 2: New Bay-Bakool Livelihood Zones 1 Map 3: Somalia, Soil Map with Interview Sites 5 Map 4: Southern Inland Pastoral Livelihood Zone 6 Map 5: Bakool Agro-Pastoral Livelihood Zones 7 Map 6: Bay Agro-Pastoral High Potential Livelihood Zones 8 Map 7: Bay Bakool Agro-Pastoral Low Potential Livelihood Zones 9 Map 8: Somalia, Major Livestock Markets 12 Map 9: Somalia, Major Cereal Markets and Flow 16 Map 10: Somalia, Maternal and Child Health Centres 20 Map 11: Road Infrustructure for Bay and Bakool 24 Map 12: Bay Water Sources 25 Map 13: Bakool Water Sources 25 Map 14: Gu ‘06 Cummulative Rainfall Amount (mm) for April-June 2006 28 Map 15: Percent of Normal Rainfall (mm) for April-June 2006 28 Map 16: Cumulative Rainfall Deyr ‘06/07 29 Map 17: Percent of Normal Rainfall Oct-Dec ‘06 29 Map 18: Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for Dec. ‘06 30 Map 19: Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) % Difference to Long Term Mean Dec. ‘06 30 Map 20: Somalia, Land Cover Map 30 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Bay Bakool Baseline Focus Group Participation by Wealth Group and Gender 3 Table 2: Agro-pastoral Livelihoods 10 Table 3: Southern Inland Pastoral Livelihood 10 Table 4: Average Herd Sizes by Wealth Group for Bay-Bakool LZs (Apr ’06-Mar ’07) 27 Table 5: Herd Dynamics during Reference Year 32 Table 6: East African Herd Dynamics Reference Model 32 Table 7: Livestock Conceptions, Births and Death from Gu ’05 to Deyr ‘07/’08 32 Table 8: Pattern of Migration during the Reference Year 32 Table 9: Pattern of Migration during a Bad Year 33 Table 10: Wealth Breakdown for bay Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential LZ 33 Table 11: Key Indicators to Monitor as Early Warning Signs 35 Table 12: Livestock Herd Dynamics for Poor Households 36 Table 13: Livestock Conceptions, Births and Death from Deyr ’05/06 to Deyr ‘07/’08 36 Table 14: Pattern of Migration during the Reference Year 37 Table 15: Pattern of Migration during a Bad Year 37 Table 16: Wealth Breakdown for Bakool Agro-pastoral LZ 37 Table 17: Key Indicators to Monitor as Early Warning Signs 39 Table 18: Livestock Herd Dynamics for Poor Households 40 Table 19: Livestock Conceptions, Births and Death from Gu ’04 to Gu ‘07 40 Table 20: Pattern of Migration during Reference Year 40 Table 21: Pattern of Migration in Bad Year 40 Table 22: Wealth Breakdown for Bay Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential LZ 41 Table 23: Key Indicator to Monitor as Early Warning Signs 43 Table 24: Livestock Herd Dynamics for Poor Households 44 Table 25: Livestock Conceptions, Births and Death from Deyr ’04-05 to Gu ‘07 44 Table 26: Pattern of Migration during the Reference Year 44 Table 27: Pattern of Migration during a Normal Year 44 Table 28: Pattern of Migration during a Bad Year 45 Table 29: Wealth Breakdown 45 Table 30: Key Indicators to Monitor as Early Warning Signs 47 Table 31: Average per Capita Annual Consumption by Livelihood and Wealth Group 49 Table 32: Gender Composition of Key Informant Interviews 50 Table 33: Division of Gender Roles in Bay and Bakool 50 FSNAU Technical Series Report No VI. 19 v Issued May 20, 2009 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Rainfall Estimates (RFE) in Bay Region 11 Figure 2: Rainfall Estimates (RFE) in Bakool Region 11 Figure 3: Water Prices in SLIM Nodes in Bay Region 11 Figure 4: Livestock Trade Process 12 Figure 5: Camel Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bay Region 13 Figure 6: Camel Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bakool Region 13 Figure 7: Cattle Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bay Region 13 Figure 8: Cattle Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bakool Region 14 Figure 9: Goat Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bay Region 14 Figure 10: Goat Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bakool Region 14 Figure 11: Fresh Camel Milk Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bay Region 14 Figure 12: Fresh Camel Milk Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bakool Region 15 Figure 13: Cattle Milk Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bay Region 15 Figure 14: Cattle Milk Prices of the Reference Year and 5-Year Average in Bakool Region 15 Figure 15: Bay Region Annual
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