Post Deyr Analysis

FSAU

Technical Series Report No V. 12 March 7, 2007

2006/07 Post Deyr Analysis

Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia Kalson Towers, Parklands Box 1230 Village Market Nairobi, Kenya Ph: 254-20-3745734 Fax: 254-20-3740598 Web site: www.fsausomali.org Email: [email protected]

Technical and Technical Partners Funding Agencies Managerial Support

European Commission USAID FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 i Issued March 7, 2007 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 ii Issued March 7, 2007 Acknowledgment

FSAU would like to thank all our partner agencies for their participation and cooperation in this assessment and analysis. This crucial assessment would not have been possible without the effi cient and timely logistical and research assistance provided by the fi eld staff of all our partners. This assessment and analysis would not have been possible without the dedication and expertise of FSAU’s thirty one fi eld based analysts who continue to work under very diffi cult conditions.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 iii Issued March 7, 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary 1 1.1 Key Findings 1 1.2 Regional Highlights 5 1.3 Sector Highlights 7

2. Analytical Processes And Methods 12

3 Sector Reports 15 3.1 Climate and Rainfall Outcome 15 3.1.1 Lessons Learned From Deyr ‘06/07: Flood Early Warning, Contingency Planning and Response 18 3.2 Civil Insecurity 19 3.3 Deyr ’06/07 Cereal Crop Production 22 3.4 Livestock Production and Export 27 3.4.1 FSAU’s Most Likely Scenario: RVF and its Impact on Food and Livelihood Security among Juba and Gedo Agro-Pastoralists and Pastoralists 32 3.5 Market Analysis and Trends 33 3.6 Nutrition Overview 34

4. Regional Analysis 35 4.1 Southern Somalia 35 4.1.1 Gedo Region 35 4.1.2 Lower and Middle Juba 40 4.1.3 Bay and Bakool 46 4.1.4 Lower and Middle Shabelle 51 4.1.5 Hiran Region 56 4.2 Central Region 61 4.3 Northeast and Northwest Somalia 64 4.3.1 1997/98 and 2000/01 Livestock Bans and their Impact on Food and Livelihood Security 68

5. Appendix 70 5.1 Components of the Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classifi cation 70 5.1.1 Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classifi cation Reference Table 71 5.2 Time-series of the Integrated Phase Classifi cations (IPC) Maps for Somalia 2004 – 2007 73 5.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation by Region from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 74 5.3.1 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Gedo from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 74 5.3.2 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Lower and Middle Juba from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 75 5.3.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Bay and Bakool from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 76 5.3.4 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 77 5.3.5 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Central from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 78 5.3.6 Progression of Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions from Gu 2006 to Deyr ’06-7 79 5.4 Post Deyr ‘06/07 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC for the period of January – June ’07 80 5.4.1 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Region 80 5.4.2 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by District 81 5.4.3 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Livelihood Group 82 5.5 List of Partners that Participated in the FSAU Post Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment 83 5.6 ‘Best Planning Estimates’ of Population Displacement in Shabelle and Juba Riverine Basins –Deyr ‘06/07 84 5.7 Post Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment Process, Analytical Tools and Timeline 85 5.7.1 Post Deyr 06/07 Assessment Timeline 85 5.7.2 Fsau Regional Presentations on the Post Deyr 2006/7 Results 85 5.7.3 Assessment Instruments and Tools 86

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 iv Issued March 7, 2007 5.7.3.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 86 5.7.3.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 89 5.7.3.3 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Market Questionnaire 91 5.7.3.4 FSAU Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment: Conﬂ ict Monitoring Form & Notes 92 5.7.3.5 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Flood Assessment Form 1 & Notes 94 5.7.3.6 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Flood Assessment Form 2 & Notes 96 5.8 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ’ 06/’07 Assessment 98 6.0 Livelihood Zones of Somalia Map 99

LIST OF ACRONYMS

ARI Acute Respiratory Infection CCPP Caprine Pleura Pneumonia CMR Crude Mortality Rate FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEWS/NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FSAU Food Security Analysis Unit GAM Global Acute Malnutrition HA Hectare HRG Humanitarian Response Group IDP Internally Displaced Persons IDS Institute for Development Studies Lt Litre LZ Livelihood Zone MCH Maternal and Child Health Center Mt Metric Tonne MUAC Mid Upper Arm Circumference NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index PWA Post War Average SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition SlSh Somaliland Shilling SoSh Somali Shilling TFC Thearupetic Feeding Center U5 Under Five WFH Weight for Height HE Humanitarian Emergency AFLC Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 v Issued March 7, 2007 LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Estimated Rural Population by Region in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups and Summary Table. 2 Table 2: Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classiﬁ cation Reference Table (FAO/FSAU June 2006) 4 Table 3: FSAU Post Deyr 06/07 Assessment Overall Timeline 12 Table 4: Summary of Flood Impact in Terms of Population Displacement (#) & Flooded Areas (ha) 18 Table 5: Deyr ’06/’07 Crop Production (Maize and Sorghum) Estimate in Southern Somalia 22 Table 6: Northwest Gu/Karan ’06 Cereal Crop Production Establishment Estimates 23 Table 7: Cereal Balance Sheet 26 Table 8: Water, Rangeland and Livestock Body Conditions 27 Table 9: Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production 28 Table 10: Livestock Exports from Berbera January – December ’06 29 Table 11: Livestock Exports from Bossaso January – December ’06 29 Table 12: Livestock Export Trends: Bosaaso & Berbera Ports Pre - & Post War 30 Table 13: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Belet weyn & Mogadishu Abattoir (January – December ‘06) 30 Table 14: RVF Risk Scenario Analysis 32 Table 15: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Gedo 35 Table 16: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Gedo 36 Table 17: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Juba 40 Table 18: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Juba 41 Table 19: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Bay and Bakol 46 Table 20: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Bay and Bakool 47 Table 21: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Hiran 56 Table 22: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Hiran 57

LIST OF MAPS

Map 1: Somalia Food Security Situation Analysis: Post Deyr 06/07 Projection, January Through June 2007 3 Map 2: Somalia - Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment Data Point Locations 13 Map 3: Cumulative Rainfall (mm), Oct-Dec, ’06 15 Map 4: Percent of long term mean Oct-Dec, ’06 15 Map 5: RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 2006 15 Map 6: RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 1997 15 Map 7: Deyr ‘06 as % of Deyr 97 (Oct-Dec) 17 Map 8: Livelihood Zones used in Time Series Analysis 17 Map 9: Insecurity Outcomes for Food and Livelihood Security (October – December ‘06) 19 Map 10: Somalia Population Displacement - December ’06 20 Map 11: Insecurity: Most Likely Risk Scenario (January – June 2007) 21 Map 12: Deyr ’06/’07 Production By District 22 Map 13: Livestock Migration Trends Oct - Dec ‘06 27 Map 14: Nutrition Situation - July 2006 34 Map 15: Nutrition Situation - January 2007 34 Map 16: Gedo Valley Livelihood Systems 35 Map 17: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Gedo 35 Map 18: Juba Valley Livelihood Systems 40 Map 19: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Juba 40 Map 20: Sorghum Belt Livelihood Systems 46 Map 21: Food Security Phase Classifi cation Bay and Bakool 46

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 vi Issued March 7, 2007 Map 22: Shabelle and Cowpea Belt Livelihood Systems 51 Map 23: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Shabelle 51 Map 24: Hiran Livelihood Systems 56 Map 25: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Hiran 56 Map 26: Central Region: Livelihood Systems 61 Map 27: Food Security Phase Classifi cation Central Region 61 Map 28: North and Central Regions: Livelihood Systems 64 Map 29: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - North 64 Map 30: Livelihood Zones of Somalia 99

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Rainfall Performances and NDVI forBakool, Bay, M & L Shabele Valley, Awdal, Togdheer, Sanaag, Nugal, Galgadud, Juba and Gedo 16 Figure 2: Historic NDVI % Deviation from Long Term Average 17 Figure 3: Deyr ’06/’07 Cereal Production Trends (1995- 2006) 22 Figure 4: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’06 Cereal Production 23 Figure 5: Sorghum and Maize Production 06 Compared to Post War Average (1998-2005) in Somaliland 23 Figure 6: Regional Contribution Gu/Karan ’06 Cereal Establishment Estimates per District/ Region 23 Figure 7: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’06 Maize Production 24 Figure 8: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’06 Sorghum Production 24 Figure 9: Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (US$) 25 Figure 10: Commercial Cereal Import Trends (2003-2005) 25 Figure 11: Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Cattle (US$) 29 Figure 12: Regional Trend in Local Quality Goat Prices (US$) 29 Figure 13: Berbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) 30 Figure 14: Monthly Exchange Rates - SOSH and SLSH to USD 33 Figure 15: Sorghum Belt: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 33 Figure 16: Juba Valley: Trend in Imported CommodityPrices compared to Exchange Rate 33 Figure 17: Central: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rate 33 Figure 18: Shabelle Valley: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 33 Figure 19: Annual Cereal Production in Gedo (1995-06) 37 Figure 20: Deyr Maize and Sorghum Production in Gedo 1995-06 37 Figure 21: Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat 38 Figure 22: Deyr Cereal Production in Juba Regions (1995-2006) 43 Figure 23: Annual Cereal Production in Juba Regions (1995-2006) 43 Figure 24: Regional Trend Local Quality Cattle Prices (US$) 44 Figure 25: Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (US$) 44 Figure 26: Regional Average Monthly Terms of Trade : Cereal to Goat 44 Figure 27: Levels of Acutely Malnourished Children from Sentinel Sites in Juba Valley, Agro-pastoral and Riverine Livelihoods 45 Figure 28: Deyr Cereal Production in Bay (1995 -2006) 49 Figure 29: Deyr Cereal Production in Bakool (1995-2006) 49 Figure 30: Shabelle Valley: Average Monthly Daily Wage Rates (SOSH) 52 Figure 31: Deyr Cereal Production in Shabelle Regions (1995-2006) 53 Figure 32: Terms of Trade in Shabelle Valley - Maize to Local Goat and Labour (1995-2007) 53 Figure 33: Shabelle Valley: Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Cattle (US$) 54 Figure 34: Levels of acutely malnourished children from sentinel sites in Lower Shabelle Region, Dec ’05-Dec ‘06 55 Figure 35: Belet Weyne: Trend Monthly Terms of Trade: Unskilled Labour to Cereal 59 Figure 36: Belet Weyne: Monthly Terms of Trade: Local Goat to Cereal 59 Figure 37: Levels of Acutely Malnourished Children in the Sentinel Sites in South Mudug Region 63 Figure 38: Terms of Trade in Central Region - Rice to Local Goat (1995-2006) 63 Figure 39: Northeast: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 65 Figure 40: Northwest: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 65 Figure 41: Terms of Trade Imported Rice to Export Quality Goat (2002 - 2007) 67 Figure 42: Northeast: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 67 Figure 43: Northwest: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 67 Figure 44: Total Livestock Exports (all species) from Berbera and Bossaso Ports, 1994-2006 68 Figure 45: AWD Speciﬁ c Mortality Cases in Togdheer and Sanag Regions 69

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 vii Issued March 7, 2007 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 viii Issued March 7, 2007 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This technical series presents the full analysis of the FSAU Post Deyr ’06/’07 Assessment, which are the results of Fieldwork (December 13, 2006 to January 3, 2007), Regional and National analysis workshops (January 4–10 and January 11–24, respectively) and Technical Verifi cation and Partner Vetting meeting (January 29). FEWS NET Somalia, along with forty partners, including regional authorities, international agencies, local NGOs and INGOs participated in and supported this Post Deyr ’06/’07 assessment and analysis process. Fieldwork was extended by one week to provide additional time to assess fl ooded areas. Confl ict led to the cancellation of regional analysis workshops planned for Kismayo, Marka, Belet Weyn and Wajid. FSAU would like to extend special thanks to our partners who provided or facilitated the use of boats and helicopters to enable assessment teams to access fl ooded or otherwise inaccessible areas. Several presentations of these results have been made, including the SSS FSRD Special Meeting (January 31), UN OCHA/ IASC Meeting (February 1), UN OCHA HRG (February 7), and, to date, two Regional Presentations (Wajid, February 8; Hargeisa, February 12) (Table 3). A further regional presentation is planned for Garoowe. The presentation, in addition to the Phase Classifi cation Map and estimated population numbers by region, district and livelihood zone, as well as the sector and integrated regional analysis, are also available on the FSAU website.

1.1 KEY FINDINGS

Based on the post Deyr ’06/’07 Assessment, the Food Security Analysis Unit for Somalia (FAO/FSAU) and FEWS NET Somalia confi rm that despite serious fl ooding leading to the short-term displacement and confl ict that took place in most regions of south and central Somalia during the month of December, the overall humanitarian situation has generally improved. This is due to continuing improvements following a second consecutive season of good rainfall, to good Deyr ’06/’07 rainfed cereal production and widespread improvements in pastoral conditions. The improvements are refl ected in a decrease in the overall numbers of people requiring humanitarian assistance and livelihood support from 1.8 million to 990,000, including an estimated 400,000 IDPs, for

at least the period between January and June 2007. Most of the 590,000 rural people in either Humanitarian Emergency or executive summary Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, or an estimated 480,000 people, are in the drought affected regions of Gedo and Lower and Middle Juba, of which 230,000 are in Humanitarian Emergency and 270,000 are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. Of the remaining 20%, 90,000 people are in Bay and Bakool regions classiﬁ ed in a phase of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and 20,000 are located in the riverine areas of Hiran, of which 10,000 are in Humanitarian Emergency and 10,000 are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (Table 1A, 1B and 2).

Although the overall humanitarian situation throughout much of the country has improved, the humanitarian situation of the riverine populations in Juba, Gedo and Hiran regions is critical and deteriorating due to the compounding impacts of the previous drought and severe fl ooding this season. Of greatest concern are 147,000 people in the riverine areas of Juba and Gedo regions, where all the poor and middle wealth groups (133,000 people) are in a state of Humanitarian Emergency and their situation continues to deteriorate. Of the two regions, Juba Region is the most severely affected by the crisis, with more than 80% of the total population in crisis (of the 147,000) or 118,000 people in need of immediate humanitarian assistance. The nutrition situation is classifi ed as Critical and at further risk of deterioration (Map 15). This season's severe fl ood shock compounds an already serious humanitarian situation following four consecutive seasons of low crop production and a socially marginalized population with limited access to social support or remittances from other areas inside or outside the country.

Similarly, the humanitarian situation in riverine areas of Hiran region has also deteriorated signifi cantly since the Gu ’06 (previously identifi ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis with a high risk of falling into Humanitarian Emergency). Currently, due to the compounding impact of drought and now fl ooding the situation has also worsened with an estimated 10,000 people identifi ed in Humanitarian Emergency and another 10,000 people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.

In Juba and Gedo regions, the regions most severely affected by the drought, the food, livelihood and nutrition situation for both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists has improved since the Gu ’06 and is expected to continue to improve over the next six months. The total number of people in crisis, however, is roughly the same as in the Gu ’06, but there is a shift of populations from Humanitarian Emergency to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. In Juba region, 151,000 agro-pastoralists and pastoralists are identiﬁ ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and 2,000 pastoralists are in Humanitarian Emergency. The situation is more severe in Gedo, as the drought was longer and the impacts more profound in this region. A total of 167,000 agro-pastoralists and pastoralists are in crisis, with 86,000 in Humanitarian Emergency and 81,000 in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. Bay and Bakool regions show the most notable improvement, due to the combination of the continued improvements from Gu ’06, very good Deyr crop production, and improved livestock conditions. Most pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, or 350,000 people, are downgraded from Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis to the usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure. Currently, there are 75,000 people in Bakool region and only 8,000 people in Bay region who remain in a phase of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis for at least the next six months.

Pastoral areas in Galgaduud, southern Mudug, and Hiran, previously identifi ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, are now downgraded to their usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure as the result of continuing pastoral recovery since the Gu ’06. Pastoral areas of the northwest and northeast have experienced gradual, but signifi cant recovery from the drought of 2002/04 for over fi ve seasons. As a result, the pastoral areas of the Hawd, Sool Plateau and Nugal Valley are now identifi ed as recovered and retain their usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure (Map 1). Pastoral areas of Coastal Deeh and Gagaab are also downgraded from Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, following improvements over the last two seasons.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 1 Issued March 7, 2007 FSAU further identifi es areas with Early Warning Levels of Moderate Risk and Watch, which require close monitoring over the next six months. The areas of Juba and Gedo regions are identifi ed at a Moderate Risk (Map 1) of deterioration in the humanitarian situation depending on the: 1.) confi rmation and vector of spread of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) (see page 32.); 2.) duration of the disruption in cattle markets and trade and the continued market access and demand to livestock markets in southern Somalia (see pages 27-33); 3.) deterioration in security conditions, which results in loss/destruction of assets, or signifi cantly reduced access to markets, agricultural land, grazing/browsing, and water. The remaining areas of southern Somalia, Central Somalia and most parts of the northeast are identifi ed at an Early Warning Level of Watch (Map 1) and will be monitored for deterioration in security conditions, which results in loss/destruction of assets, or signifi cantly reduced access to markets, agricultural land, grazing/browsing, and water (see pages 19-21); and the spread and impact of the unknown camel disease (see page 28). Implications for Action: x Populations in Humanitarian Emergency – require urgent complementary interventions focusing on immediate needs, including increased access to food and sector support as needed, such as water, health, sanitation, and shelter. In addition, populations require immediate protection against the complete loss of their livelihood assets to ensure future recovery.

x Populations in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis – require immediate interventions to support livelihoods and either halt the stripping or help recover livelihood assets. This may include strategic sectoral interventions, including repair and maintenance of boreholes, water catchments, and irrigation and water management infrastructure, facilitation of increased access to credit and debt relief, recovery of livelihood assets, improved access to human and livestock services, and others depending on the region and livelihood context.

x Populations identiﬁ ed as Chronically Food Insecure - Although immediate humanitarian and livelihood support is not required, these areas do require urgent strategic interventions to improve the resilience of livelihood systems to reduce risks and vulnerabilities to future shocks and to redress structural hindrances to achieving food security.

Table 1A: Estimated Rural Population by Region in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups. Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Total Acute Food and Total in AFLC or HE Affected Regions 1 Humanitarian Population Livelihood Crisis as % of Region Emergency (HE)2 (AFLC)2 population North3 2,341,718 0 0 0

executive summary Central 680,156 0 0 0 Banadir 901,183 . . . South Bakool 310,627 80,000 0 26 Bay 620,562 10,000 0 2 Gedo 328,378 90,000 110,000 61 Hiraan 329,811 10,000 10,000 6 Juba Lower 385,790 90,000 40,000 34 Middle Juba 238,877 80,000 70,000 63 Lower Shabelle 850,651 0 0 0 Middle Shabelle 514,901 0 0 0 Sub-Total (South) 3,579,597 360,000 230,000 13 GRAND TOTAL 7,502,654 360,000 230,000 8

Table 1B: Summary Table2 Assessed and Contingency Rural Population Numbers in AFLC and HE 590,000 85 Estimated Number of IDP’s4 400,000 55 Estimated Total Population in Crisis 990,000 145

1 Source: Rural Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population ﬁ gures in affected regions. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the ofﬁ cial estimates provided by UNDP 2 Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest ten thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning 3 Dan Gorayo is included within Bari Region following precedent set in population data prior to UNDP/WHO 2005 4 Source: UN-OCHA updated April 2004 (376,630) and UNHCR IDP map Dec.2005 (407,000), rounded to 400,000 as an estimate 5 Percent of total population of Somalia estimated at 7,502,654 (UNDP/WHO 2005)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 2 Issued March 7, 2007 Map 1: Somalia Food Security Situation Analysis: Post Deyr ’06/’07 Projection, January Through June 2007 executive summary

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 3 Issued March 7, 2007 Table 2: Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classiﬁ cation Reference Table (FAO/FSAU June 2006)

Key Reference Outcomes Strategic Response Framework Phase (current or imminent outcomes on lives and livelihoods—based on Objectives: Classification convergence of direct and indirect evidence rather than absolute (1) mitigate immediate outcomes, (2) support thresholds; not all indicators must be present) livelihoods, and (3) address underlying causes) Crude Mortality Rate < 0.5 / 10,000 / day Acute Malnutrition <3 % (w/h <-2 z-scores) Strategic assistance to pockets of food insecure groups Stunting <20% (ht/age <-2 z-scores) Investment in food and economic production systems Generally Food Access/ Availability usually adequate (> 2,100 kcal ppp day), stable Enable development of livelihood systems based on principles 1 Dietary Diversity consistent quality and quantity of diversity of sustainability, justice, and equity Food Secure Water Access/Avail. usually adequate (> 15 litres ppp day), stable Prevent emergence of structural hindrances to food security Hazards moderate to low probability and vulnerability Advocacy Civil Security prevailing and structural peace Livelihood Assets generally sustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Crude Mortality Rate <0.5/10,000/day; U5MR<1/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >3% but <10 % (w/h <-2 z-score), usual range, stable Design & implement strategies to increase stability, resistance Stunting >20% (ht/age <-2 z-scores) and resilience of livelihood systems, thus reducing risk Food Access/ Availability borderline adequate (2,100 kcal ppp day); unstable Provision of ‘safety nets’ to high risk groups Chronically Dietary Diversity chronic dietary diversity deficit Interventions for optimal and sustainable use of livelihood assets 2 Water Access/Avail. borderline adequate (15 litres ppp day); unstable Create contingency plan Food Insecure Hazards recurrent, with high livelihood vulnerability Redress structural hindrances to food security Civil Security Unstable; disruptive tension Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘insurance strategies’ Advocacy Livelihood Assets stressed and unsustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Structural Pronounced underlying hindrances to food security Crude Mortality Rate 0.5-1 /10,000/day, U5MR 1-2/10,000/dy Support livelihoods and protect vulnerable groups Acute Malnutrition 10-15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Strategic and complimentary interventions to immediately Ĺ food Disease epidemic; increasing access/availability AND support livelihoods Food Access/ Availability lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., Acute Food and Dietary Diversity acute dietary diversity deficit water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) 3 Livelihood Crisis Water Access/Avail. 7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping Strategic interventions at community to national levels to create, Destitution/Displacement emerging; diffuse stabilize, rehabilitate, or protect priority livelihood assets Civil Security limited spread, low intensity conflict Create or implement contingency plan Coping ‘crisis strategies’; CSI > than reference; increasing Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Advocacy 1-2 / 10,000 / day, >2x reference rate, increasing; Crude Mortality Rate U5MR > 2/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Urgent protection of vulnerable groups Disease pandemic Urgently Ĺ food access through complimentary interventions Humanitarian Food Access/ Availability severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., 4 Dietary Diversity Regularly 3 or fewer main food groups consumed water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) executive summary Emergency Water Access/Avail. < 7.5 litres ppp day (human usage only) Protection against complete livelihood asset loss and/or Destitution/Displacement concentrated; increasing advocacy for access Civil Security widespread, high intensity conflict Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘distress strategies’; CSI significantly > than reference Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Livelihood Assets near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access Advocacy

Crude Mortality Rate > 2/10,000 /day (example: 6,000 /1,000,000 /30 days) Critically urgent protection of human lives and vulnerable groups Acute Malnutrition > 30 % (w/h <-2 z-score) Comprehensive assistance with basic needs (e.g. food, water, Famine / Disease pandemic shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) 5 Humanitarian Food Access/ Availability extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day Immediate policy/legal revisions where necessary Catastrophe Water Access/Avail. < 4 litres ppp day (human usage only) Negotiations with varied political-economic interests Destitution/Displacement large scale, concentrated Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Civil Security widespread, high intensity conflict Advocacy Livelihood Assets effectively complete loss; collapse

Early Warning Probability / Severity General Description and Implications for Action Risk Levels Likelihood (of potential Changes in Process Indicators (of Worsening Phase) Phase decline) Occurrence of, or predicted Hazard event stressing livelihoods; Alert As yet unclear Not applicable with low or uncertain Vulnerability and Capacity Close monitoring and analysis Process Indicators: small negative changes Review current Phase interventions

Elevated probability / Specified by Occurrence of, or predicted Hazard event stressing livelihoods; Close monitoring and analysis Moderate Risk likelihood predicted Phase with moderate Vulnerability and Capacity Contingency planning Class, and Process Indicators: large negative changes Step-up current Phase interventions indicated by color Occurrence of, or strongly predicted major Hazard event Preventative interventions--with increased High probability; ‘more of diagonal lines stressing livelihoods; with high Vulnerability and low Capacity urgency for High Risk populations High Risk likely than not’ on map. Process Indicators: large and compounding negative changes Advocacy

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 4 Issued March 7, 2007 1.2 REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

SOUTHERN REGION

Although southern Somalia continues to experience conditions of Humanitarian Emergency and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis the overall situation has continued to improve over the last six months. Currently, for the southern regions it is estimated that 570,000 people require humanitarian assistance and livelihood support, of which 350,000 people are in Humanitarian Emergency and 220,000 people are in a state of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (Map 1 and Table 1A). This is a 53% reduction in the number of people in humanitarian crisis since the Gu ’06. Most of this improvement is due to the continuing pastoral and agro-pastoral recovery following two seasons of good rains since last year’s drought (drought shock was in Gu ’05 and Deyr ’05/’06). Of the total 570,000 people in humanitarian crisis, 84% are located in the worst drought affect areas of Gedo and Juba Region. Of most concern are the 147,000 agriculturalists residing in the riverine areas of Juba and Gedo regions who are faced with a further deterioration in their food and livelihood security and nutrition situation and require immediate humanitarian assistance (Map 1).

The humanitarian situation of the riverine population is critical and continues to deteriorate. Most of the rural riverine agricultural population (90%) or 133,000 people are in a state of Humanitarian Emergency and another 14,000 are in a state of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. Of the two regions, Juba Region is the most severely affected by the crisis with more than 80% of the total population in crisis (of the 147,000) or 118,000 people in need of immediate humanitarian assistance located in Middle and Lower Juba. Juba was one of the regions most severely affected by fl oods in November and December ’06. executive summary In Juba fl oods destroyed all Deyr ’06/’07 riverine crops, displaced an estimated 84,000 people (of which between 66-99% have returned), and led to the destruction of assets, including food stores, irrigation infrastructure, river banks, and bridges. All shallow wells and rivers are contaminated and/or silted, due to poor sanitation and fl ooding. Nutrition situation is Critical and at further risk of deterioration (Map 15), with high numbers of acute watery diarrhoea and seasonal increases in Malaria, Measles and ARI (see FSAU Nutrition Update, January 2007). This severe fl ood shock follows four and three consecutive seasons of low or completely failed riverine crop production for Lower Juba and Middle Juba, respectively. A further compounding factor is that the riverine population is socially marginalized with limited access to social support or remittances from other areas inside or outside the country. Increased options of fi shing and wild food collection, as well as the potential for off-season crop production are mitigating factors, however, this population requires continued humanitarian assistance and livelihood support.

The food, livelihood and nutrition situation of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in both Juba and Gedo region, however, has improved since Gu ’06 and is expected to continue to improve over the next six months. The total number of people in crisis is roughly the same as in Gu ’06, however, the improvement is seen in the shift of populations from Humanitarian Emergency to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. In Juba 151,000 agro- pastoralists and pastoralists are identiﬁ ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and 2,000 pastoralists are in Humanitarian Emergency. The situation is more severe in Gedo, as the drought was longer and impacts more profound in this region. A total of 167,000 agro-pastoralists and pastoralists are in crisis, with 86,000 in Hu- manitarian Emergency and 81,000 in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. Livestock body conditions for all species are good and the abundance of pasture and water following the exceptionally good Deyr ’06/’07 rains means a mild dry Jilaal season and continued improvement in livestock body conditions and productivity.

High sheep/goat kidding and lambing is expected from February to May ’07 due to high conception in the Hagaa (Sept.-Oct.’06) and Deyr ’06/’07 season and currently most cattle are conceived (from the Hagaa Sept. – Oct ’06) and high rates of calving are expected in April-May ’07. Livestock prices have increased with improved livestock conditions for all species. For example, in Juba camel prices increased 120%, cattle 273%, and goat 165% between Dec. ’05 and Dec. ’06. Similarly, terms of trade (local quality goat to sorghum) increased 39% from July to Dec. ’06, and 142% from Dec. ’05 to Dec. ’06. Herd sizes, however, have not recovered, as the losses during the drought were signiﬁ cant (cattle 40-60%, sheep/goats 15-50%) and will take several seasons to recover. The nutrition situation also shows improvements over the last six months for most rural areas and is downgraded from Very Critical to Critical.

Bay and Bakool Regions show the most notable improvement, as most pastoral and agro-pastoralists or 350,000 people, were downgraded from Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis to the usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure. Currently, there are 75,000 people in Bakool region and only 8,000 people in Bay region who remain

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 5 Issued March 7, 2007 in a phase of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis for at least the next six months. In Bay region, the population that remain in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis are poor cattle pastoralists who have not yet recovered their pre-drought herds. In Bakool, the population in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis are mostly from areas of Rab Dhuure and parts of El Barde and consists of the most poor and vulnerable who still have not fully recovered their assets and livelihoods from previous conﬂ icts and last year’s drought, and still indicate critical nutrition status (Map 15). Also in Bakool, an agro-pastoral area bordering Hudur and Tieglow, also remains in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, as both the Gu ’06 and Deyr ’06/’07 rainfed sorghum production was below normal, due to poor rains in Gu ’06 and low yields resulting from ‘rattoon’ cropping in Deyr ’06/’07.

Most agro-pastoral households in Bay and Bakool, however, have fully recovered from the previous drought, as there is recovery in both livestock and cereal production following two consecutive seasons of good rains (Gu ’06 and Deyr ’06/’07). Near normal sorghum production in the Gu ’06 (98% of PWA), provided opportunities for debt repayments and improved access to income and food. The exceptionally good sorghum in Deyr ’06/’07 (398% of PWA and 228% of PWA for Bakool and Bay, respectively) ensures signiﬁ cantly improved access to income and food, with food stores fully recovered.

All livestock are in good condition, with high kidding/lambing (Feb.-May), as well as calving (April-May) expected soon due to good conception in Hagaa (Sept.-Oct. ’06) and Deyr ’06/’07. Generally, livestock holdings of agro-pastoralists are small (2 – 5 sheep/goats and 1-3 cattle for the poor), therefore with the minimal livestock stock losses during the drought (cattle losses of only 10-25% and sheep and goat losses of 0-15%), livestock herd size are fully recovered or will be within the next six months (either through kidding/calving or by purchase).

CENTRAL REGION

Pastoral areas in Galgaduud, southern Mudug, and Hiran, previously identiﬁ ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, are now downgraded to their usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure as the result of continuing pastoral livelihood recovery since the Gu ’06. Water, pasture and browse is widely available and good in most areas due to the well distributed and above normal Deyr ’06/’07 rainfall (200-300% of long term trends). Ex- ceptions are localized pockets in Adado, Dhusamareb, some coastal areas of Galgaduud district, and pockets in Belet Weyn and Buloburti districts.

Livestock body conditions for all species are good and high kidding and lambing is expected from February to May ’07 due to high conception in the Hagaa (Sept.-Oct.’06) and Deyr ’06/’07 season. Livestock prices have executive summary increased with improved livestock conditions and terms of trade (local quality goat to rice) increased 57% from July to Dec. ’06, and 100% from Jan. ’06 to Dec. ’06. Herd sizes are considered normal, as there was minimal livestock mortality and stress sales during last year’s drought. The nutrition situation also shows improvements over the last six months for most rural areas and is downgraded from Serious to Alert (Map 15). Of concern are reports of an unknown camel disease (see Livestock section) and indications of increasing tensions and insecurity in the region, with the potential for displacement, reduced access to water and grazing, and disruptions in market access (see Civil Insecurity section). FSAU identiﬁ es the area in Watch and will closely monitor developments and their impact on food and livelihood security.

Similarly, in Hiran region agro-pastoral areas have also improved and are downgraded from the previous phase of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (see Map 1). In addition to improvements in livestock conditions, productivity, prices and terms of trade, Deyr ’06/’07 rainfed sorghum production in agro-pastoral areas was near average (94% of PWA and 544% of Deyr ’05/’06).

The humanitarian situation in riverine areas of Hiran region, however, have deteriorated signifi cantly since the Gu ’06 (previously identifi ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis with a high risk of falling into Humanitarian Emergency). Currently, the situation has worsened with an estimated 10,000 people identifi ed in Humanitarian Emergency and another 10,000 people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. This deterioration is the result of the compounding effect of three successive seasons of crop failure (Gu ‘05 was 3%, Deyr ’05/’06 16%, Gu ‘06 33% of PWA), followed by severe fl ooding this season. Floods in late October ’06 resulted in high numbers of population displacement (roughly estimated at 102,000 people), damage to or loss of livelihood assets, destruction of 85% of all riverine crops, a reduction in agriculture labour opportunities, high cereal prices and a nutrition situation identifi ed as Serious (10-15%) (Map 15).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 6 Issued March 7, 2007 NORTHERN REGION

Pastoral food and livelihood security and nutrition in the 2002/03 drought affected areas of the northwest and northeast have experienced gradual, but signifi cant recovery over the previous four seasons. As a result, the pastoral areas of the Hawd, Sool Plateau and Nugal Valley, previously identifi ed in Humanitarian Emergency (Gu '03 to Gu '04) and then downgraded to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (Deyr '04/05 to Gu '06) are now identifi ed as recovered and retain their usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure (Map 15). Pastoral areas of Coastal Deeh and Gagaab are also downgraded from Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, following improvements over the last two seasons. In all but localised pockets (in eastern Sanaag and the area between Garowe and Jariban districts where rains were below normal), water availability and rangeland conditions are good following Deyr ’06/’07 rains, which were 200-300% above normal for the season. Livestock body conditions, productivity and milk production are good for all species and livestock herd sizes are now generally at pre-drought (2001- 2002/03) levels. Dispersed cases of an unidentifi ed camel disease, originating from Ethiopia, have led to some localised rates of camel mortality of 10-20% in the Nugal Valley and Hawd pastoral areas, as well as other areas in central and southern regions (see Livestock Section). FSAU identifi es these areas in a state of Watch and will continue to monitor the spread and impact of this camel disease over the coming months (Map 1).

In line with improved livestock body conditions and increased local and export demand, livestock prices and terms of trade have improved as well. Pastoralists have benefi ted from a signifi cantly improved livestock export market, in which exports are now comparable to peak pre-1997/98 livestock ban levels (see Livestock section). Export quality goat prices in the northeast increased by 22% from December 2005 to December 2006. At the same time over the year, rice prices remained relatively stable (SoSh 6,000/kg) leading to improved terms of trade (sheep/goats to rice). Gulf States importing livestock and chilled meat began returning shipments to So- executive summary malia in an informal livestock ban from early February following the confi rmed RVF outbreak in north eastern Kenya. Although this will negatively impact negatively on the pastoralists if the ban is enforced over several months, its impact on pastoral food security in the immediate term is limited, especially as pastoralists have just benefi ted from the peak export season (Oct. – Jan.), with high terms of trade. FSAU will closely monitor the enforcement of the current livestock ban and its impacts. Income from fi shing in the coastal northeastern areas has also improved for the fi rst time since the tsunami of 2004, and frankincense production and trade in the Gagaab highland areas has also improved.

Nutrition indicators also signify signifi cant improvements in the areas previously identifi ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, with nutrition situation now only at Alert, which is an improvement over the long term nutrition trends for the area (Serious) (Map 14 & 15 and Nutrition Section) and most households have improved dietary diversity, consuming 4 or more food groups (FSAU Nutrition Update, January 2007). Although the area is downgraded from Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, FSAU identifi es the area in Watch and will closely monitor the spread and impact of the unknown camel disease and the enforcement of the livestock ban and its impact on food and livelihood security.

1.3 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS

CLIMATE

The Deyr 2006/07 season rains started on time (early October) in many parts of the country and stopped in late December. Rainfall performance in terms of the intensity, coverage, and distribution over time was above normal for most of the country (Map 3 and 4). Although the Deyr ’06/’07 season was characterized by a moderate El Niño event caused by above average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) throughout much of the equatorial Paciﬁ c, most regions received rainfall that was signiﬁ cantly less, between 50-80 percent, than the rainfall received during the 1997/98 El Niño, with no extension of the short Deyr rains season into the usually dry month of January.

Total cumulative rains for the season were considerably above normal, greater than 150% of long term trends in most regions, with greater than 300% in parts of the key pastoral areas of the Juba and northern regions (Map 4). Satellite imagery, conﬁ rmed by ground-truthing, indicates that water availability, crop and rangeland conditions (NDVI or Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) have improved accordingly and remain well above normal in nearly all key agricultural and pastoral areas (see FSAU/FEWSNET Climate Update, January 2007). Exceptions include localised pockets of poor rainfall in Sanaag, Bari and some coastal areas of Galgaduud. Rainfall of 150% to greater than 300% of long term mean in the upper river catchment areas in the highlands

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 7 Issued March 7, 2007 of Ethiopia and in northeastern Kenya, coupled with the heavy in-country rainfall, led to serious fl ooding in the Juba and Shabelle riverine areas and in non-riverine areas, such as Afmadow district in November. Flash fl ooding was also reported in several other locations, including Burao (Somaliland) and Belet Hawa (Gedo Region). Flooding destroyed food stores, inundated Deyr season riverine crops, fl ooded villages, damaged canals, bridges and roads, disrupted transportation and market access, and displaced thousands of people.

Based on the FSAU Post Deyr ’06/’07 Flood Impact Survey (December 2006), it is roughly estimated that a total of 255,000 people were displaced by the fl oods along the Juba and Shabelle rivers during the months of November and December, of which 150,000 were in the Shabelle riverine areas (including Hiran), and 105,000 in Juba riverine areas (including Gedo). In Hiran estimated fl ood displacement of 102,000 represented 31% of the total regional population. In Middle Juba fl ood displacement of 60,000 people represented 25% of the regional population. It is estimated that approximately 90% of the total fl ood displaced population returned to their places of origin. This does, though, hide regional and district variations where, for example, it is estimated that in Lower Juba only 66% have returned (see Agriculture section for the impact of fl ooding on crop production).

CIVIL INSECURITY

In previous publications FSAU highlighted the potential risks associated with widespread confl ict (see FSAU Quarterly Brief, December 2006). FSAU noted that the implications for food, nutrition and livelihood security could be signifi cant, compounding problems associated with widespread fl ooding and an already serious humanitarian situation in much of south and central Somalia. However, based on FSAU Post Deyr ’06/’07 Field Assessment the direct impacts of the December 2006 confl ict between the TFG and the Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) on agricultural and pastoral production and market access were not signifi cant, due to several mitigating factors related to the nature of the confl ict.

Firstly, the wave of confl ict was of short duration in most areas, i.e. a total duration of 10-14 days with confl ict passing through some areas in as little as 1-2 days, with the exception of some pastoral areas in Lower Juba, where confl ict continued into January. Secondly, the timing of the confl ict in relation to the ongoing Deyr farming activities meant that most seasonal agricultural planting (and main weeding) activities were completed before the confl ict intensifi ed. Thirdly, there were limited reports of targeting of non-combatants and productive resources, for example, livestock, food stores, cereal crops, and water sources.

Furthermore, there was no concentrated fi ghting in agricultural areas and where it did take place in pastoral areas, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists moved their livestock away from confl ict areas. Lastly, and importantly, seasonal rainfall performance was normal to above normal throughout south and central Somalia (see Climate executive summary Section). This last factor, in conjunction with local reconciliation initiatives, led to a signifi cant reduction in resource based confl icts and pastoralists could easily move their livestock away from confl ict epicentres to surrounding areas where water, pasture and browse were available. The direct impacts on seasonal agricultural and livestock activities, including fl ood recession planting and livestock migration, were limited though there was some reduction in the labour supply for second stage weeding activities, notably in parts of the High Potential Sorghum area of Bay region, and off-season planting in the Juba Valley.

In general, confl ict induced displacement was of short duration and distance from urban to rural surrounding areas, though this did place some resource pressure on host communities, with some longer distance displacement, for example to the Somalia/Kenya border area. Indirect impacts of confl ict included disruptions in the transportation of food and other commodities, which compounded previous diffi culties and market price rises due to poor road access as result of fl ooding in some areas, for example, Lower Juba (see FSAU, Quarterly Brief, and December 2006). The confl ict also led to the closure of the Kenya-Somalia border on 3rd January 2007, which continues to disrupt cross-border livestock trade (see Livestock Section) and population movement. Importantly, insecurity dramatically restricted humanitarian space, compounding problems associated with the fl ood response and hampered efforts to investigate the presence of RVF in the cross-border regions.

Currently, the risk of a renewed widespread confl ict is low. However, already there is an increase in localized insecurity and confl icts, and this is expected to continue until effective governance measures are established. Already observed increased localized insecurity includes, increasing levels of banditry and roadblocks, tensions within and between clans, including clan retaliation, resource based confl icts and a renewal of marine piracy. Areas most affected by increased insecurity are Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud and South Mudug. Due to the potential implications of insecurity on food and livelihood security

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 8 Issued March 7, 2007 and nutrition, FSAU identiﬁ es areas of Lower and Middle Juba at Moderate of Risk of deterioration in the humanitarian situation, and Watch for other areas in South and Central regions.

AGRICULTURE

Deyr ’06/’07 cereal production in southern Somalia, estimated at roughly 111,000 MT, is 113% of Deyr Post War Average (1995-2005) and 262% of Deyr '05 (Table 2). Sorghum contributes 79% to this production and maize 21%. Sorghum production is greater than maize due to the exceptional sorghum harvest, from Bay Region in particular. Above normal rainfall contributed to good rainfed production in many regions, with three regions recording cereal production above long term trends (Bakool 398%, Bay 228%, and Middle Juba 124% of Deyr PWA). Cereal production in Hiran region is also near normal (94% of PWA) due to good rainfed production, despite the almost complete failure of riverine crop production. Sorghum from Bay region contributes 57% of the total Deyr ’06/’07 cereal production.

In addition to above normal production in Bay, Bakool and Middle Juba regions, several districts in other regions also had good rainfed production leading to near normal to above normal district cereal production levels, including Gabaharey district in Gedo (87% of PWA), Bulo Burti in Hiran (155% of PWA), Kismayo district in Lower Juba (370% of PWA), and Afgoye and Wanlaweyne districts in Lower Shabelle (95% and 87% of PWA, respectively).

Deyr ’06/’07 maize production is only 50% of Deyr maize PWA production due to the failure of most of the Juba and Shabelle riverine maize production as the result of river fl ooding during October-November. Based executive summary on the FSAU Post Deyr Flood Impact Survey (December 2006), it is estimated that roughly 40% of the Deyr season cereal planted was fl ooded in riverine areas, or a total of approximately 53,000 hectares, of which 42,000 hectares was in the Shabelle Valley (including Hiran) and 11,000 was in the Juba Valley (including Gedo). In addition, it is estimated that approximately 70,000 hectares of sesame and 9,000 hectares of cowpeas were fl ooded. Furthermore, fl ash fl oods destroyed an estimated 22,000 hectares of rainfed sorghum in the Shabelle Valley.

On the positive side, extensive fl ooding provides the opportunity for off-season fl ood recessional crop production, both cereal and cash crops, as well as increased opportunities for agricultural labor in the coming months. Flood recessional planting of cereals and cash crops (especially sesame) is ongoing in many riverine areas as fl ood waters recede and planting is expected to continue into February. It is roughly estimated from the FSAU Flood Impact Survey (December 2006) that the recessional off-season cereal crop could contribute an additional 20,200 MT of maize in southern Somalia between March/April 2007. Pest outbreaks, plus potential seasonal overlaps with Gu ’07 rains for late planted off-season crops may reduce this total anticipated harvest. FSAU will conduct a post-harvest off-seasonal Deyr crop assessment in April ’07.

In Somaliland, the Gu/Karan ‘06 cereal production harvested in November is higher than earlier crop establishment estimates due to the exceptional performance of the Karan rains. Cereal production is estimated to be 25,000MT, which is 147% of PWA and 97% of Gu/Karan ’05. Annual cereal production for ‘06/07 (Gu ‘06 and off-season, Gu/Karan plus Deyr ‘06/’07 and Deyr potential off-season) is estimated at around 272,000 MT, which is 101% of PWA. This year’s annual cereal production is considerably higher than last year’s, which at 144,000 MT, was the lowest annual cereal production in a decade. The updated 2006/07 Annual Cereal Balance Sheet (with actual production levels for Deyr ’06/’07 indicates that at the national level there will be no shortfall of cereal supply if the expected off-season cereal production and food aid in the pipeline are taken into account.

Currently, cereal prices in all three main southern Somalia regions are signiﬁ cantly lower than their peak levels in early 2006. In the Sorghum Belt (Gedo/Hiran/Bay Bakool) January 2007 sorghum prices are 62% lower than their peak levels in March 2006; in Juba Valley January 2007 maize prices are 66% lower than their peak levels in June 2006, and in the Shabelle Valley January 2007 maize prices are 52% lower than their peak levels in May 2006. Cereal prices peaked in early 2006 due to overall low cereal supplies following the extremely poor crop performance of the Gu ’05 and Deyr ’05/’06.

Cereal prices began to decline in most regions, following improved production in Gu ’06. Sorghum prices are continuing to decline and are expected to decline further as the bumper sorghum harvest of the Deyr season enters the market. Maize prices, however, increased slightly from December ’06 and are expected to continue to increase over the coming months, due to the overall poor performance of Deyr season maize production.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 9 Issued March 7, 2007 In the coming months, one of the critical risk factors to monitor will be the ﬂ ow and prices of cereals from areas of high production (rainfed), to areas of low production (riverine), as well as the progress of the off-season cereal and cash crop production in riverine areas.

LIVESTOCK

Rangeland conditions throughout most of the country have signifi cantly improved due to well distributed and above normal Deyr ’06/’07 rains. Water and pasture availability is average to very good in most parts of the key pastoral areas in the Northwest, Northeast, Central, and in the previously drought affected regions in Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Juba. Exceptions are localized pockets in eastern Sanaag and the area between Garowe and Jariban districts where rains were below normal. Importantly, the abundance of water, pasture and browse ensures a mild Jilaal season, the normally harsh long dry season between January and March. As the result of widespread availability of pasture, browse and water, there is minimal livestock migration in most regions and migrations are confi ned to the traditional wet season grazing areas. Exceptions include pastoralists in localized areas of poor rainfall in eastern Sanaag who have moved westwards into good pasture areas and pastoralists on the Kenya/Somalia border area who have moved further inland due to fears of confl ict. No unusual cross border livestock movements have been reported from the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia and Kenya, as rainfall performance in these countries was also reported to be average or above average.

Improved rangeland conditions have led to signiﬁ cant improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity for all livestock species throughout the country. In the drought affected areas of the south and central regions, livestock recovery began to recover following the Gu ’06 rains and the exceptional rangeland conditions following the Deyr ’06/’07 rains will serve as a further boost to their recovery.

In the worst drought affected regions of Gedo, Juba, Bay and Bakool, as well as in Hiran and parts of Central region, calving and kidding, as well as milk production was low in Deyr ’06/’07. However, high conception in the Haga (Sept-Oct. ’06) following livestock body condition recovery in the Gu ’06, means that high kidding is anticipated in February-March ’07 and high calving in April-May ’07. Currently, most livestock in all the drought affected regions are conceived. This follows normal trends in which exceptionally high rates of conception follow extended drought periods as livestock body conditions recover. In the northwest and northeast regions, sheep/goat kidding and lambing rates, as well as milk production were good in most areas during the Deyr ’06/’07. Camel calving rates, however, were low, but conception during this time was high.

In southern and central regions, livestock prices for all species have increased signiﬁ cantly over the last six executive summary months, following the recovery of livestock body conditions and productivity. January 2007 cattle prices increased 247% in Juba, 195% in the Sorghum Belt and 140% in Shabelle since they collapsed last January ’06. Sheep and goat prices have shown similar levels of increase and are currently at their highest levels in several years. As a result, terms of trade (goat to cereals), the measure of purchasing power for pastoralists, is also signiﬁ cantly improved in all markets, between 105-905% over the same period.

Cases of an unknown camel disease, affecting mainly adult animals, have been reported in all the regions except Juba. The camel disease was fi rst reported in Afar Region, Ethiopia, where it has been monitored for the last few 3-4 years. The disease is disperse, not affecting all pastoralists or herds, has no observable symptoms, and results in the sudden collapse and death of the camel. Reports suggest that localised rates of mortality within herds affected are around 10-20%. FSAU will continue to monitor the situation and its potential impact on the livestock sector. Rift Valley Fever (RVF), which has been confi rmed in cross-border areas of northeastern Kenya, also remains a concern for pastoral recovery in southern Somalia. After an analysis of the conditions and vector of spread, the most likely scenario is that if RVF were to be confi rmed in Somalia, the likely impact would not be as severe as the 1997/1998 outbreak in terms of spread and direct impact. This is due to the shorter rainfall period (Deyr ‘97/’98 compared to Deyr ’06/’07 season), the current drying of previously fl ooded pastoral areas, and the limited cross-border livestock migration.

The closure of the cattle market in Garissa in Kenya and the disruption of cattle trade, will negatively impact pastoral livelihoods and the livelihoods of traders and herders dependent on cattle trade. However, in the short term, over the next six months, it is projected that the impact on pastoral food and livelihood security will be less, as most pastoralists recovering from the drought are currently retaining cattle for restocking and high calving is anticipated in April-March ’06. In addition, the prospect of an extremely mild Jilaal dry season ensures there

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 10 Issued March 7, 2007 is limited need to sell cattle to cover costs of water and transportation (one of the primary reasons pastoralists sell cattle during the Jilaal season). In terms of cereals, pastoralists generally only trade sheep/goats for cereal, and these markets within Somalia remain functional.

Livestock exports and prices in the north continued to increase and peaked in December ’06 in response to the high export demand period of the Hajj. Total live animal exports from Berbera and Bossaso ports reached approximately 3 million heads in 2006, of which 2.8 million were sheep and goats. Total exports in 2006 reached their highest level since the livestock ban of 2000 (124% of the average annual total exports for 2003-05) and were almost as high as the pre-1997/98 livestock ban levels (93% of the average annual total exports for 1995-97).

In late January, Gulf States began to return livestock shipments and chilled meat from Somalia and impose an informal livestock ban in response to reported outbreaks of RVF in northeastern Kenya and suspected cases in Southern Somalia. The immediate impact of this ban on pastoralist food and livelihood security in the very short term is minimized as pastoralists have beneﬁ ted from the peak export demand period (Oct. – Dec.), with high terms of trade. FSAU, however, will continue to monitor the livestock trade market, the livestock ban, and its potential impact on food and livelihood security carefully in the coming months.

MARKETS

Both the Somali and Somaliland Shillings were stable in most markets (around SoSh 14,000 per dollar and SlSh 6,300 per dollar, respectively), for the last six months (July to December 2006). However, the Somali Shilling appreciated or gained slightly in value against the US dollar by 4%, (14,000 to 13,400 SoSh per US dollar) for executive summary the period of September to December 2006 in most southern markets. Nonetheless, the value of both currencies is still signiﬁ cantly lower than pre-livestock ban levels.

Imported commodity prices such as sugar, rice, edible oil and petrol, are high in most of the main inland markets in southern regions compared to 2003 and have risen steadily during this period. The increase of imported commodity prices in the southern regions is attributed to a number of factors, including increased fuel prices that raised not only shipping costs but also transportation costs, high numbers of ‘taxed’ road blocks, and disruptions to inter regional trade ﬂ ows. The price increase is transferred to the consumers through higher commodity prices. The current closure of the Kenya Somalia border (on 3rd January 2007) due to insecurity not only restricts the movement of the pastoral community in these border areas, it has also had an impact on the important cross-border cattle trade in the Garissa market catchment. This will have an impact on local market prices and commodity ﬂ ows and will be important to monitor over the coming few months.

NUTRITION

An analysis of the nutrition information collected over the past 6 months indicates an improvement in nutrition situation in some parts of the country with no signiﬁ cant change in others. The improvement is most apparent in the northern zones where the current situation, although it remains in an alert situation, has improved from the serious situation in the post Gu analysis.

In central regions a slight improvement has also been noted though the recent reports of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) outbreaks may have contributed to a deteriorating nutrition situation observed in Hiran most notably in the riverine community in Belet Weyn district. AWD outbreaks have also been reported in parts of Middle and Lower Shabelle and Middle Juba and this has also contributed to localised pockets of increasing acute malnutrition. In general in Bay and Bakool, although high rates of acute malnutrition persist, an overall improvement in trends has been noted over the past six months and this is likely to continue with the improvement in food security indicators.

Juba remains critical in terms of acute malnutrition, though a slight improvement has been observed in the agro- pastoral and pastoral areas where the situation has deteriorated in the riverine zone. This is possibly associated with the ﬂ ooding that occurred in November and exposure to water borne diseases compounding problems associated with an underlying nutritionally compromised community. Finally, Gedo continues to remain in a critical nutrition situation however, it is hoped that in the coming months an increasing emergency nutrition response will have a mitigating impact. A more detailed analysis of the nutrition situation is available in the Nutrition Update for January, just released.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 11 Issued March 7, 2007 2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS

This Technical Series Report provides the full technical fi ndings of the Post Deyr ’06/’07 Analysis. This analysis focuses on the outcome of the Deyr seasonal rains (mid-October to December) and provides a food security projection for the period January to June 2007. The analysis updates the Post Gu ’06 Assessment Analysis (FSAU Techni- cal Series, Report No. V. 9, September 15, 2006). FSAU collaborated with 40 partners in the fi eld and Nairobi at different stages of the assessment, including planning, fi eldwork, and analysis. Table 3 provides an overview of the analytical process and timeline. For a complete listing of partners and full timeline, including regional level meetings see Appendix 5.7.1 and 5.7.2.

Analytical Process and Timeline

In December 2006, FSAU highlighted the severity of fl ooding associated with a Moderate El Nino phenomenon and the risk of widespread confl ict due to increasing tensions between the Transitional Federal Government and the Council of Somali Islamic Courts (FSAU, Quarterly Brief, December 14, 2006). Preparations for the Deyr season assessment, the fi eldwork and analysis process were adjusted to account for these two factors (Table 3), including early shipment of survey forms to the fi eld, increase in the size of fi eld teams in some areas, fi eldwork extended an extra week, and regional analysis meetings for the South and Central regions held in the North.

A Post Deyr Assessment Technical Partner Planning meeting was held in Nairobi on December 5, 2006. This meeting had a combined agricultural and livestock sector focus, with the aim of planning partner collaboration as well as coordinating and planning fi eldwork logistics and support. Due to logistical diffi culties around access to Somalia, it was necessary to break from normal practice, such that the seasonal survey instruments (see Appendix 5.7.3) were fi nalised and sent to the fi eld the prior to this planning meeting. Just before the actual fi eldwork, Regional Partner Planning Workshops, designed to train participants on fi eld instruments and to plan fi eld logistics, were held in Hargeisa, Garoowe, Belet Weyne, Marka, Wajid, and Kismaayo from December 11 – 12. The teams then conducted fi eldwork in their respective regions between December 13 and January 3.

Table 3: FSAU Post Deyr 06/07 Assessment Overall Timeline

analytical process andanalytical process methods x All Team Workshop January 11 - 23 Sector & Integrated Analysis Sector Overview, Regional: Evidence Based Templates, IPC (Hargeisa) x Finalisation of Executive January 23 - 27 Finalisation of Executive Results Results Sector Overview, Regional: Evidence Based Templates, IPC (Nairobi) x Vetting of Exec Results with January 29 Closed door with assessment participating partners Technical Partners (Nairobi) x Release of Results January 31 Presentation of Results to Special FSRD/SSS: Sectors, IPC, & Population Estimates (Nairobi)

February 7 Regional presentation of results – Wajid at WFP February 10 Regional presentation of results – Belet Weyne at SCF-UK February 12 Regional presentation of results - Hargeisa at FAO/FSAU February 14 Regional presentation of results - Buale at World Vision February 14 Regional presentation of results - Mogadishu at Saxaafi hotel February 14 Release of Special Food Security & Nutrition Brief: Outcome of Post Deyr Analysis (Executive Summary of Technical Report – Released as FSAU Quarterly Brief)

February 23 Press Release on Outcome Post Deyr: Despite flooding and conflict in November/December '06 the overall humanitarian situation has generally improved in Somalia

Release of Technical Series Report March 07 Release of Technical Series Report of full Post Deyr Analysis through hard copy distribution, Website, and Email

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 12 Issued March 7, 2007 FSAU All Team Post Deyr ’06/07 Analysis Workshop held in Hargeisa, January ’07. nltclpoesadmethods analytical process and

The number of FSAU fi eld analysts con- Map 2: Somalia - Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment Data Point Locations ducting fieldwork was increased in the most critical humanitarian areas of Juba and Gedo regions to ensure greater coverage and depth of analysis. In addition, fi eldwork was extended by one week to take into account the diffi culties of access due to fl ooding in riverine and non-riverine areas in southern Somalia, notably the Juba Val- ley and Shabelle Valley. FSAU would like to extend special thanks to our partners who provided or facilitated the use of boats and helicopters to enable access to fl ooded areas or otherwise inaccessible areas.

In addition to the diffi culties in access due to fl ooding, active confl ict and restrictions on fl ight availability led to restrictions on the fi eldwork process in some areas of south and central Somalia. Map 2 indicates the areas covered by fi eld teams during the assessment. Areas not assessed fully due to security constraints include the area between south Galkayo and Hobyo (Mudug region), the districts of Bur Hakaba, Din- sor and part of Baidoa (Bay region), parts of Badhaade (Lower Juba), border areas of Bardera, El Waq and Belet Hawa (Gedo region), and parts of Wanle Weyn (Lower Shabelle).

It is important to note, though, that the FSAU had ﬁ eld presence and conducted monthly data collection activities in many of these areas prior to the escalation of the conﬂ ict.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 13 Issued March 7, 2007 Fieldwork was followed by regional analysis meetings (January 4 – 10) in only two locations, Hargeisa and Ga- roowe. Other planned regional analysis meetings (Kismaayo, Belet Weyne, Marka, Wajid) had to be transferred to Hargeisa followed by an FSAU All Team Analysis Workshop with FEWS NET and partners in Hargeisa from January 11 - 24. The draft analysis was shared with major technical partners in a Technical Veriﬁ cation and Partner Vetting Meeting in Nairobi on January 29. Due to limited partner participation in regional and Hargeisa analysis workshops, this meeting was extended to a full day instead of a half day as in previous seasons, to facilitate a full in-depth review of the sector analysis and IPC evidence templates. Results were fully endorsed during this technical partner vetting meeting, and key ﬁ ndings were publicly released on January 31, 2007, at an SSS FSRD Special Meeting in Nairobi.

To facilitate rapid uptake of assessment results, several further presentations of the key ﬁ ndings were made, including a UNOCHA/IASC meeting in Nairobi (February 1), a UNOCHA HRG meeting in Nairobi (February 7), and a UNOCHA Regional Information Exchange meeting in Nairobi (February 14). Regional presentations of the same overall ﬁ ndings were made by FSAU Field Analysts throughout Somalia, including Hargeisa, Belet Weyne, Mogad- ishu, Wajid, Buale between February 8 and at time of publication a presentation had not been done in Garowe.

From February 2, the key ﬁ ndings were posted on the FSAU’s website and included the key results of the sector and integrated regional analysis, along with the revised Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classiﬁ cation (IPC) Map and estimated population numbers by region, district and livelihood zone (valid January – June 2007). On Febru- ary 14, FSAU issued a Special Brief summarizing the sector and integrated regional analysis and a Press Release on February 22, 2007. The full technical analysis from the Post Deyr assessment and analysis are presented in this Technical Series Report.

Assessment Methods and Instruments

Primary data collection methodologies included focus group discussions, key informant interviews, market price surveys, crop production surveys, livestock surveys, and food and livelihood security questionnaires (Appendix 5.7.3). Given the severity of fl ooding in riverine areas, FSAU conducted a Flood Impact Survey (Appendix 5.7.3.5 and 5.7.3.6) to provide estimates of fl ood displacement and displacement return by site, cropped area fl ooded by variety (including cash crops), and initial estimates of potential off-season/recession production and timing. Dis- placement data from this form was used to ‘ground truth’ earlier estimates of displacement by region and district (see Section 3.1.1).

In total, 323 crop production surveys, 194 pastoral questionnaires, 24 market price surveys, 19 district confl ict monitoring surveys, and 53 fl ood impact forms were completed. These were supported and triangulated by secondary data (including livelihood profi les, regional and district administrative maps, USG/NVDI satellite imagery, nutrition and market data, and FSAU and partner situation reports).

Nutritional data used during the analysis stage included recent district nutrition surveys, rapid assessments, trends in health facility data, and sentinel site data (102 sites, covering Gedo, Lower and Middle Juba, Bay and Bakol, Hiran,

analytical process andanalytical process methods Lower Shabelle, south Mudug, and Galgadud). Weights for height (WFH) indicators were used in the nutrition surveys and health facility monitoring. For the ﬁ rst time, ﬁ eld nutrition analysts were part of food security assessment teams (in the NE, Central, SW, South and SE). Rapid measurement of the Mid-upper Arm Circumstance (MUAC) was utilized in assessments alongside completion of food and livelihood security questionnaires. This provided much greater integration of food, nutrition, and livelihood security than has been the case to date.

FSAU applied a livelihoods approach in analysis to clearly highlight the causes and outcomes of food and livelihood insecurity, and to facilitate multi-sector response planning and monitoring. Evidence-based templates (Appendix 5.8) were used to organize and consolidate all analytical fi eld and secondary data, as well as to analyze comprehen- sively all evidence and arrive at an area, livelihood, and socio-economic specifi c Food Security and Humanitarian Integrated Phase Classifi cation (Appendix 5.1 and 5.3).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 14 Issued March 7, 2007 3. SECTOR REPORTS

3.1 CLIMATE AND RAINFALL OUTCOME

Map 3: Cumulative Rainfall (mm), Oct-Dec, ’06 Map 4: Percent of long term mean Oct-Dec, ’06

DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden

Awdal Awdal Sanag Sanag Bari Bari W. Galbeed W. Galbeed Togdheer Togdheer Sool Sool

Nugal Nugal

ETHIOPIA ETHIOPIA Mudug Mudug

Galgadud Galgadud

Hiran Bakool Hiran Bakool Indian Ocean Gedo Indian Ocean Gedo Bay M. Shabelle Bay M. Shabelle

L. Shabelle L. Shabelle M.Juba outcome climate and rainfall M.Juba KENYA KENYA L.Juba L.Juba

Map 5: RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 2006 Map 6: RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 1997

Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET The Deyr season ‘06/’07 rains started in most parts of the country on time (early October) and stopped late December. The season’s rainfall performance in terms of the intensity, coverage and distribution over time was above normal for most of the country (Map 4). This rainfall outcome is confi rmed by satellite imagery and fi eld assessment. Ex- ceptions where rains were below normal are localized pockets in eastern Sanaag and the area between Garowe and Jariban districts of the northeast. Cumulative rainfall was high for most of the county (Map 3). The drought affected regions in the South received more than 300mm of rainfall, and several areas in Juba, Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions received between 400-600mm of rainfall. Cumulative rainfall in Hiran and Central regions was also high, between 100-300 mm of rainfall for the season. A comparison between the actual and long term mean rainfall amounts for the season (October to December) indicates that the Deyr season rainfall was signifi cantly above normal for most of the country, between 150-300% of normal, while many areas in the south, central and northern regions rains were more than 300% of normal (Map 4).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 15 Issued March 7, 2007 Figure 1: Rainfall Performances and NDVI for Bakool, Bay, M & L Shabele Valley, Awdal, Togdheer, Sanaag, Nugal, Galgadud, Juba and Gedo

Key Agricultural Areas Key Pastoral Areas climate and rainfall outcome

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 16 Issued March 7, 2007 Above-normal rainfall for the season was due to a moder- Map 7: Deyr ‘06 as % of Deyr 97 (Oct-Dec) ate El Niño event caused by above average Sea Surface

Temperatures (SSTs) throughout much of the equatorial DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden Paciﬁ c. However, most regions received rainfall that was AWDAL SANAG signiﬁ cantly less, between 40-80% less, than the rainfall BARi W. GALBEED received during the 1997/98 El Niño event (Map 5, 6 and 7). Initially it was forecast that the moderate El Niño TOGDHEER SOOL

conditions together with the Sea Surface Temperatures NUGAL (SST) anomaly pattern of the western Indian Ocean was ETHIOPIA likely to lead to an extension of the short rains season MUDUG into the usually dry month of January. However, Deyr rains ended on time in December and did not extend into GALGADUD the dry season month of January.

BAKOOL HIRAN Rainfall of 150-300% of the long term mean in the upper Indian Ocean river catchment areas in the highlands of Ethiopia and in GEDO M. SHABELLE Northeastern Kenya, in conjunction with the heavy in- BAY country rainfall, led to serious fl ooding in the Juba and Shabelle riverine areas and in non-riverine areas, such M. JUBA L. SHABELLE as Afmadow district, in November. KENYA L. JUBA lmt n analoutcome climate and rainfall Flash fl ooding was also reported in several other locations, including Burao (Somaliland) and Belet Hawa (Gedo region). Flooding destroyed food stores, inundated Deyr season riverine crops, fl ooded villages, damaged Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET canals, bridges and roads, disrupted transportation and market access, and displaced thousands of people. Based Map 8: Livelihood Zones used in Time Series Analysis Gulf of Aden on the FSAU Post Deyr ’06/’07 Flood Impact Survey DJIBOUTI (December 2006), it is roughly estimated that a total of AWDAL 255,000 people were displaced by the fl oods along the SANAG BARI W. GALBEE D Juba and Shabelle during the months of November and TO GD HEER December (see Lessons Learned: Flood Early Warning SO OL Contigency Planning and Response). International boundary Regional boundary NUGAL District boundary Compared to a long-term mean (1998-2005), the Nor- Coastline malized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates

that current vegetation levels for this time of year are MUDUG ETHIOPIA well above normal in the agro-pastoral areas of Bakool, Bay and Middle Shabelle regions, and pastoral areas of GA LG AD UD Juba, Gedo and Toghdheer regions (Figure 1). NDVI is BAKOOL a measure of ‘vegetation greenness’ obtained through HI IRAN Indian Ocean satellite imagery. M. SHABELLE GEDO BAY The NDVI for the pastoral areas of Sanag, Nugal, and BANADIR

Galgadud regions, however, shows normal seasonal M. J UB A L. SHA BE LLE KENYA long-term trends. A comparison of current NDVI over Livelihood Zones

a historic long-term average (1982-2005) shows a sig- Ad du n P a stora l: M ixed sh ee p & go at s, ca m e niﬁ cant recovery for drought-affected areas in the south, L. JUBA Hawd Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats and all measures are at or above the historic long-term ± So ol p late a u/Nu ga l va lle y/K aka a r pa sto ra l South-East Pastoral: Cattle, sheep & goats trends (Figure 2). 030 60 120 180 240 K ilometers Southern Agro-Pastoral: Camel, cattle, sorgh Source: FSAU January, 2007 Figure 2: Historic NDVI % Deviation from Long Term Average

45 Addun Pastoral

Hawd Pastoral 35 Juba: South-East Pastoral

Southern Agro-Pastoral 25 Sool Plateau 15

-5 Average % Deviation -15

-25

-35 Oct-83 Oct-85 Oct-87 Oct-89 Oct-91 Oct-93 Oct-95 Oct-97 Oct-99 Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Jun-82 Jun-84 Jun-86 Jun-88 Jun-90 Jun-92 Jun-94 Jun-96 Jun-98 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Feb-83 Feb-85 Feb-87 Feb-89 Feb-91 Feb-93 Feb-95 Feb-97 Feb-99 Feb-01 Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 17 Issued March 7, 2007 3.1.1 LESSONS LEARNED FROM DEYR ‘06/07: FLOOD EARLY WARNING, CONTINGENCY PLANNING AND RESPONSE In October 2006 FSAU and FEWS NET issued a fl ood early warning and highlighted the need for increased fl ood preparedness and contingency planning (FSAU, Quarterly Brief – Focus on Risk Factors, 12 October 2006). This was based on the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) forecast of warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) projected over the central Indian Ocean and much of the Atlantic Ocean. These SST forecasts indicated the likely occurrence of neutral or weak El Nino conditions in the Greater Horn of Africa. By late November and early December, heavy rains in the Juba and Shabelle river catchments areas of the Ethiopian highlands, combined with heavy rains within Somalia, led to severe fl ooding in the Juba and Shabelle valleys and fl ash fl oods in other areas (see Climate Sector and Regional Analysis).

As reports of heavy rainfall in river catchment areas and localized fl ooding emerged and for technical consistency FSAU, in conjunction with technical partners (including FEWS-NET and SWALIM), were tasked by the Somali Support Secretariat Flood Working Group (FWG) to develop a ‘Best Estimate’ of potential fl ood population displacement at the regional and district level for contingency planning and fl ood response purposes (Appendix 5.6). ‘Best estimates’ were based on and triangulated with: 1). Flood contingency planning population fi gures based on 5 and 10 year fl ood models developed using USGS data from 1960-1991; 2). UNDP 2005 settlement survey population estimates; 3). FSAU estimates of riverine populations by livelihood; 4). UNOSAT satellite imagery overlaid on UNDP 2005 settlement survey shape fi les by region and district; and, 5). and importantly, fi eld-based evidence from multiple sources including FSAU fi eld reports, UN and NGO (local and international) assessment reports, reports from regional and local authorities, and local media sources.1 ‘Best estimates’ were updated daily and made available to the FWG and operational agencies to allow for immediate response and actions to the unfolding fl ood disaster.

It was clear, however, that the fl ood displacement numbers were only ‘best’ estimates, therefore FSAU developed a fl ood impact survey to be used during the Deyr season fi eld assessment directly following the cessation of the rains between Dec. 13 to Jan. 3 (see Analytical Processes and Methods and Appendix 5.7.3.5 and 5.7.3.6). There were two components to the survey: fi rst, to map and document the scale and location of fl ooding and displacement and, secondly, to assess the impact of fl ooding upon crop and livestock production.

The results of the ﬂ ood impact survey and this ‘ground-truthing’ exercise highlighted large discrepancies between the two processes (Table 4). In general ‘best estimates’ over estimated actual displacement with the exception of, at a regional level, Lower Juba which was underestimated by 27% (17,500 compared to 24,000) and Hiran where ﬁ gures showed close correlation (104,000 to 102,000). The ‘best estimate’ was 178% of actual displacement (454,500 compared to 255,000) and displacement in Middle Shabelle was overestimated by nearly 350% (36,000 compared to 159,000).

It is clear that the continued deterioration of local, regional and national river management and regulation and fl ood control infrastructure, and the lack of central co-ordination make effective fl ood control all but impossible. Continued deposition and deterioration of river embankments, increased settlement on the river fl ood plains and relict channels will increase the numbers of people affected by progressively smaller fl ood crests in coming seasons. Although the trans-boundary nature of ood early warning

fl the river catchments and their morphology make fl ood prediction and early warning diffi cult it is important that fl ood contingency modelling and planning needs to be more timely, more accurate, and build upon this Deyr 2006/’07 season experience. Getting the numbers wrong will lead to either over- or under-response of humanitarian assistance.

1 Radar analysis from “UNOSAT Satellite Identiﬁ cation of Flooded Areas” at http://www.unosat.org/asp/prod_free.asp?id=28

Table 4: Summary of Flood Impact in Terms of Population Displacement (#) & Flooded Areas (ha) Summary Table of Flood Impact in Terms of Population Displacement (#) & Flooded Areas (ha)

Flood Displaced Population Flooded Areas Preliminary UNDP Total Riverine Analysis Flood Region 2005 Flooded Deyr Displacement Displaced as Estimated % % Deyr 06/07 of Basin 2 3 06/07 1 population # hh’s # people % of total of displaced Cropped area Best Estimates Cropped population returned 4 Flooded area Shabelle 299,000 1,695,363 25,000 150,000 9% 90% 41,800 40% Riverine Hiraan 104,000 329,811 17,000 102,000 31% 90% 10,500 46% Middle 159,000 514,901 6,000 36,000 7% 90% 8,500 36% Shabelle Lower 36,000 850,651 2,000 12,000 1% 90% 22,800 40% Shabelle Juba 155,500 953,045 17,500 105,000 11% 86% 11,336 33% Riverine Gedo 36,000 328,378 3,500 21,000 6% 97% 2,636 26%

Middle Juba 102,000 238,877 10,000 60,000 25% 90% 4,400 24%

Lower Juba 17,500 385,790 4,000 24,000 6% 66% 4,300 70%

Total 454,500 2,648,408 42,500 255,000 10% 88% 53,136 38%

1 FSAU,FEWSNET, SWALIM & Flood Working Group analysis “Population Displacement Estimates-Deyr seasonal rains 2006” (Nov-Dec). Best Estimates based on triangulation of all Field Estimates from Field Reports, Interagency Flood Assessments and UNOSAT Radar Estimates 2 Population estimates by region/district, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the ofﬁ cial estimates provided by UNDP 3 Displace Population calculated by multiplying the number of hh’s by hh size of 6 4 All areas ﬂ ooded refer to maize areas with exception of Hiraan which is Sorghum area

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 18 Issued March 7, 2007 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY

The following civil insecurity analysis is based on information drawn from the Post Deyr ‘06/07 seasonal assessment security monitoring form (Appendix 5.7.3.4) and FSAU monthly ﬁ eld reports. This ﬁ eld-based information is triangulated with secondary information from other sources wherever possible. FSAU began explicitly monitoring civil insecurity and its impact on food and livelihood security in 2005, both within seasonal analysis and monthly monitoring (see FSAU Technical Series Reports No. IV. 7 and 8 and Food Security and Nutrition Briefs). FSAU does not analyze insecurity in isolation, but as it impacts on outcomes of population displacement, loss/destruction of livelihood assets, access to productive resources (e.g. rangelands, agricultural lands, water sources), markets, health services and schools. FSAU considers three layers of insecurity for the purposes of analysis: 1) chronic ‘unstable, disruptive tension’ and the structural violence of everyday life; 2) localised disputes over access to natural resources (for example, agricultural land, charcoal, water, and grazing); and 3) ‘political’ disputes (localised or widespread).

This seasonal assessment analysis summarizes the overall impacts of civil insecurity on food and livelihood security during the past three months (October to December 2006), as well as examines the potential impacts of insecurity over the next six months (January to June 2007) and the potential risk factors to monitor over the coming months.

There was a general reduction in localised disputes, including confl icts over natural resources during the period of July to November 2006, as compared to the previous six month period (see Post Gu ’06 Assessment Analysis, Technical Series No. V. 9). However, increased tensions and preparations for fi ghting between the TFG and the Council of Islamic Courts (CSIC) dominates this period and culminated in widespread confrontation in December 2007. To simplify the analysis of this period of insecurity, two distinct periods are analysed: pre-December 20 and post-December 20 to the end of the month. Although high tension and localised fi ghting existed prior to December 20,the fi ghting intensifi ed greatly following the Ethiopian advance within Somalia from December 20 onwards with initial fi ghting in Bay, Hiran, and Central and south Mudug regions, and moving down the river valleys of Middle and Lower Shabelle to Benadir/Mogadishu, and down the Juba Valley, Middle and Lower Juba. The fi ghting in Lower civil insecurity Juba in the post-December 20 period was more prolonged than in other areas and extended into January.

In previous publications FSAU highlighted the potential risks associated with widespread Map 9: Insecurity Outcomes for Food and Livelihood Security confl ict (see Technical Series V, No.9; FSAU, (October – December ‘06) Quarterly Brief, December 2006). FSAU noted that the implications for food, nutrition and livelihood security would be signifi cant, compounding problems associated with widespread fl ooding and an already serious humanitarian situation in much of south and central Somalia.

Direct Impacts of Civil Insecurity However, based on the Post Deyr ‘06/07 fi eld assessment, the direct impacts of the December confl ict between the Ethiopian backed TFG and the Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) on agricultural and pastoral production were not signifi cant due to several mitigating factors related to the nature of the confl ict. First, the post-December 20 confl ict was of short duration in most areas, that is, a total duration of 10-14 days with confl ict passing through some areas in as little as 1-2 days, with the exception of some pastoral areas in Lower Juba where confl ict continued into January 2007. Second, the timing of the confl ict in relation to the ongoing Deyr farming activities meant that most seasonal agricultural planting (and main weeding) activities were completed (by mid-October) before the confl ict intensifi ed. Third, there was limited reported targeting Source: FSAU January ‘07. of non-combatants and productive resources

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 19 Issued March 7, 2007 (for example, livestock, food stores, cereal Map 10: Somalia Population Displacement - December ’06

crops, and water sources), which is in marked y ToTo YemenYemen DJIBOUTI Information on locations & numbers of displaced DJIBOUTI ToTo YemenYemen 1,9761,976 1,9761,976 persons collected by UNHCR Kenya, UNHCR contrast to the extended ﬁ ghting of the early 443443 DJIBOUTIDJIBOUTI 0 DjiboutiDjibouti 443443 Somalia, UNHCR Yemen, OCHA Somalia , NRC BossasoBossaso & local partners: Ali-AddehAli-Addeh 1990’s in southern Somalia. Fourth, there was AGROCARE, Baniadam, FAHRO, HAPO Child, HORNWATCH, ISHA, KAHRO, KANAVA, AWDALAWDAL KPDO, LORDO, SEDHURO, SMVIARDO, WOQOOYIWOQOOYI GALBEEDGALBEED BARIBARI SRDO, STRW, VOSOMWO, WRRS, & SANAAGSANAAG no concentrated ﬁ ghting in urban or agricul- DireDire DawaDawa HargeysaHargeysa WWHRDO. JiJiJi JigaJigaJiga JiJiJi JigaJigaJiga 165165 (I)(I) BurcoBurco 165165 (I)(I) HararHarar KebribeyahKebribeyah 4040 (L)(L) tural areas, and where it took place in pastoral 4040 (L)(L) SOOLSOOL GaaroweGaarowe TOGDHEERTOGDHEER 180180 ETHIOPIA ToTo AddisAddis AbabaAbaba NUGAALNUGAAL areas, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists moved 214214 GaalkacyoGaalkacyo JariibanJariiban

6,0006,000 1,0001,000 Mustahil their livestock away. Fighting was concentrated ETHIOPIA 1,0001,000 BandiiraleyBandiiraley SalmadeyraSalmadeyra 176176 209209 migrantsmigrants 800800 1,0001,000 tototo EthiopiaEthiopiaEthiopia 1,0001,000 on tarmac roads in some areas - for example, tototo EthiopiaEthiopiaEthiopia MUDUGMUDUG Howlwadag,Howlwadag, Bardhere,Bardhere, BerxBerx Dhidowda-dileyDhidowda-diley 25,60025,600 Dhidowda-dileyDhidowda-diley

Kismaayo to Jilib; Jilib to Bardera; and Belet 900900 GALGADUUDGALGADUUD BeletBeleti WeyneWeyne BAKOOLBAKOOL BeletBeletii WeyneWeyne BAKOOLBAKOOL HIRAANHIRAAN Weyn to Mogadishu. 34,00034,000

BAKOOLBAKOOL SHABELLESHABELLE GEDOGEDO GEDOGEDO DHEXEDHEXE DHEXEDHEXE

BAYBAY BAYBAY

The last important mitigating factor was that MOGADISHU XudurXudur JUBAJUBAJUBA JUBAJUBAJUBA SHABELLESHABELLE DHEXEDHEXE SHABELLESHABELLE HIRAAN HOOSEHOOSE seasonal rainfall performance was normal BuloBulo BurtoBurto

LuugLuugLuug 9,0369,036 i LuugLuugLuug 9,0369,036 i i i i ii

JUBAJUBAJUBA to above-normal throughout south and central HOOSEHOOSE HOOSEHOOSE

BuurBuur WeynWeyn Somalia (see Climate Section). This last factor GarbahaareyGarbahaarey BaydhabaBaydhaba KENYA BaydhabaBaydhaba DhargeDharge 3,0023,002 (I)(I) DhargeDharge contributed to a reduction in localised disputes LafaLafa 700700 BuurBuur DhuuboDhuubo 1,5001,500 (E)(E) Mogdiile Mogdiile 550550 550550

JawiilJawiilJawiil 1,3501,350 JawiilJawiilJawiil over access to natural resources as tensions be- QansaxQansax DheereDheere GalogGalog GodeyGodey GedisoyGedisoy

600600 BuuloBuulo 1,2001,200 i 500500 BuuloBuulo i GEDO BarariyeBarariye Population Movements GomereGomere BuurBuur HakabaHakaba BarariyeBarariye GomereGomere BuurBuur HakabaHakaba BuurBuur HakabaHakaba UforowUforow UforowUforow JowharJowharJowhar tween livelihood groups reduced. Furthermore, 500500 JowharJowharJowhar 500500 2,2142,214 500500 2,8502,850 500500 2,2142,214 ii Insecurity/Conflict (I) Wanle Weyn

Habaal-Bar-BaarHabaal-Bar-Baari pastoralists faced limited problems in moving Habaal-Bar-BaarHabaal-Bar-Baari 3,0003,000 SHABELLSHABELLEE Transferred for RSD Interview 1,2501,250 1,2501,250 Mama Alio Poster DHEXE i DHEXE i i i i i i i IDP Return (R) 3,5003,500 3,5003,500

livestock away from conﬂ ict epicentres to sur- BaardheereBaardheere BeledBeled AminAmin Eviction (E) FarsooleyFarsooley 3,0003,000 AfgooyeAfgooye

BAYBAY FarhaneFarhane QoryooleyQoryooley 318318 rounding areas where water, pasture and browse Floods (F) 828828

558558 3,5073,507 HaduumanHaduuman Mogadishu Lack of Livelihood (L) 230230 GodeyGodey were available. It is important to note, however, Afgoye-YareyAfgoye-Yarey KulayKulay GalGal 5050 311311 Arrows indicate approximate flows, 400400 103103 400400 103103 not the actual routes taken. Marka

that the impacts on urban livelihoods are less 393393 KurtunwaareyKurtunwaarey 393393

GolweynGolweyn 178178 7575 clear as the FSAU did not conduct direct food KENYA SHABELLESHABELLE BuuloBuulo MareerMareer HOOSE 1,6531,653 JeerowJeerow SablaleSablale JeerowJeerow and livelihood security assessments in urban Bu'aaleBu'aale 1,9201,920

BaraaweBaraawe centres. JUBAJUBA DHEXE JUBAJUBA LEGEND HOOSE Capital

Overall, therefore, the direct impacts upon LiboiLiboi JilibJilibJilib

AfmadowAfmadow Refugee Camp AfmadowAfmadow 262262 DhobleiDhoblei i ii

7,4107,410 Regional Capital seasonal agricultural and livestock production, 7,4107,410

FaganFagan DadaabDadaab FaganFagan District Capital 637637 RefugeeRefugee JamaameJamaame including ﬂ ood recession planting and livestock JamaameJamaame

CampsCamps International boundary CampsCamps 754754 5858 (I)(I) INDIAN Region boundary migration, were limited. There were indications 6363 (F)(F) TurdhoTurdho

OCEAN 1,1941,194 District boundary

AmumaAmuma that insecurity created some reduction in the la- Main road 1,3621,362 KismaayoKismaayo bour supply for second-stage weeding activities, 12,93212,932 Minor Road River notably in parts of the High Potential Sorghum Mogadishu Name of location Site of major conflict ### Number of persons ii

area of Bay region, and for off-season planting

civil insecurity in the Juba Valley, but the overall impact on Source: UNHCR and RSAL, Nairobi, Kenya January, 2007. production of this reduction was minimal.

Indirect Impacts of Civil Insecurity

Indirect impacts of high tension or active fi ghting included disruptions in the transportation of food and other commodities, which compounded previous diffi culties, and market price rises resulting from poor road access due to fl ooding in some areas, for example, Lower Juba (see FSAU, Quarterly Brief and December 2006). The confl ict also led to the closure of the Kenya/Somalia border on 3rd January 2007, which continues to disrupt cross-border livestock trade (see Livestock section) and population movement. Importantly, insecurity dramatically restricted humanitarian space for agencies and organizations already struggling to meet humanitarian needs associated with the fl ood response and areas in Humanitarian Emergency and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, i.e. Juba and Gedo regions. Restrictions in humanitarian access also hampered efforts to investigate the possible presence of Rift Valley Fever in the cross-border regions. Unexploded ordnance, which have been reported in the area of Idaale (Dinsor district), and landmines between Daynuunay and Moode-Mooda, will have implications in the future for human and livestock safety, and because of this, for the free movement of pastoral and agro- pastoral populations.

A further indirect impact of the conﬂ ict was the removal of the fuel blockade from CSIC-controlled Mogadishu to areas under the control of the TFG, which had contributed to increased fuel prices in Bay and Bakool during October and November 2006 (see FSAU Quarterly Brief, December 2006).

There are three epicentres of insecurity considered serious enough to have had direct negative impacts on rural household food, nutrition and livelihood security during the Deyr 2006/07 season (Map 9). These are Karaban (Luuq district, Gedo region), Idaale (Dinsor district, Bay region) and Kangiron/Beerhane (Badhadhe district, Lower Juba region). The direct negative impacts include population displacement for all three areas, with some areas also experiencing loss/destruction of assets and reduced access to productive land (grazing/browsing and/or agricultural lands), markets, health services and schools. Of the three epicentres identifi ed, all are located in southern Somalia and all three are within areas currently identifi ed in Humanitar- ian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. These three areas are also continuing fl ash points of confl ict: two of these areas, Karaban and Kangiron/Beerhane, were noted in the previous 2006 Post Gu seasonal analysis (see FSAU Technical

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 20 Issued March 7, 2007 Series Report No. V. 9) and the other, Idaale, was Map 11: Insecurity: Most Likely Risk Scenario (January – June 2007) noted in the 2005 Post Gu Analysis (see FSAU Technical Series Report No. IV. 7). In addition to the three epicentres of insecurity noted, other minor key localities of conﬂ ict-induced displacement are also identiﬁ ed on the map.

Conﬂ ict Induced Population Displacement

The numbers of displaced people, where these are provided, are at best rough estimates, based on fi gures provided by local organizations, elders and other key informants, including FSAU staff involved in the assessment. Accurate fi gures are diffi cult to establish, as the displaced are not found in ‘camp’ situations, but are dispersed and integrated within settlements, large and small, and within families. Any estimates, therefore, should be taken only as indicative of the magnitude of the problem.

Best estimates of total displacement provided by the UNHCR Population Movement Tracking and Protection Monitoring Network suggest that between 65,000-70,000 people were displaced during the December confl ict period (Map 10). Some of this displacement, however, could also be displacement due to fl ooding. For example, civil insecurity estimates for Belet Weyn identify roughly 60,000 people displaced by fl ooding and 3,000-6,000 displaced by confl ict. Overall, however, most displacement due to confl ict was localised, of short duration and short distance, from urban to surrounding rural areas, and took place within Somalia. Displacement of pastoralists is also noted in movement away from the confl ict ar- Source: FSAU January, 2007. eas on the Kenya/Somalia border (Map 13) and within areas of Lower Juba (Badhaade and Afmadow districts) where the fi ghting was more prolonged and extended into January (Map 10). Although it is diffi cult to quantify, displacement even if it is short-term, is not without costs for host communities and for the displaced.

Most Likely Civil Insecurity Scenario (January – June 2007)

According to the ‘most likely’ scenario developed by FSAU, the risk of a renewed widespread confl ict is low for the period January through to June 2007. However, already there is a marked increase in localized insecurity and confl icts in some areas compared to the pre-December period, and this is expected to continue until effective governance and security measures are established. Already observed increased localized insecurity includes increasing levels of banditry and roadblocks (for example, on the road between Marka and Jilib), tensions within and between clans, including clan retaliation and resource-based confl icts, and a renewal of marine piracy. Areas most affected by increased insecurity are Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud and South Mudug.

Potential outcomes of insecurity on food, nutrition and livelihood security in the coming months include disruption of the movement of local cereals (and imported commodities) within the country and across regional borders leading to increases in market prices; continuation of the Kenya/Somalia border closure disrupting cross-border trade (including the important cattle trade to Kenya) and population movement; restriction of livestock movement; localised short-term displacement; and further restriction of humanitarian space. More generally, increasing insecurity will slow or reverse gains made during the Deyr ’06/’07 season and compound existing problems in areas of Humanitarian Emergency and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.

As a result of these potential outcomes, FSAU identiﬁ es areas of Lower and Middle Juba at a Moderate Risk (IPC early warning level of an elevated probability or likelihood) of deterioration in the humanitarian situation, and Watch (IPC early warning level of as yet unclear) for the other areas in South and Central regions (Map 11). FSAU will continue to monitor civil insecurity and its potential impacts on food and livelihood security over the coming months.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 21 Issued March 7, 2007 3.3 DEYR ’06/07 CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION Table 5: Deyr ’06/’07 Crop Production (Maize and Sorghum) Estimate in Southern Somalia y%y%y% Deyr 2006 Production in MT Deyr 2006 as % of Deyr PWA of Deyr PWA of Deyr PWA Regions Sorghum Maize Total Cereal of Deyr 2005 (1995-2005) (1995-2003) (2001-2005) Bakool 4,699 839 0 2206% 398% 403% 306% Bay 52,975 9,870 0 888% 228% 224% 192% Gedo 2,535 173 0 317% 50% 57% 36% Hiraan 5,600 1,040 0 544% 94% 92% 81% Lower Juba 88 785 0 3635% 52% 45% 102% Lower Shabelle 13,420 7,420 0 82% 55% 53% 46% Middle Juba 4,882 0 0 1627% 124% 116% 144% Middle Shabelle 4,850 1,680 0 89% 51% 47% 39% Deyr 2006 Total 0 0 0 262% 113% 110% 96%

Deyr ‘06/’07 cereal production in southern Somalia is Figure 3: Deyr ’06/’07 Cereal Production Trends estimated at 110,856MT (21 % maize and 79% sorghum), (1995 - 2006) 200,000

which is 113% of the Deyr post-war average 1995-2005 180,000

maize (Table 5 and Map 12). Sensitivity analysis using different 160,000 Sorghum calculations for the long term trends, i.e. last ﬁ ve years 140,000 PWA (1995-2005)

(2001-2005) and years excluding the drought in the south 120,000

100,000 (1995-2003), all indicate that the overall cereal production MT this season is near to above normal (Table X). The cereal 80,000 production this Deyr season is signiﬁ cantly higher than 60,000 last year’s Deyr season which was an almost complete 40,000 crop failure due to the drought (262% of Deyr ’05/’06), 20,000 0 and is the fourth highest Deyr cereal production level in 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 more than a decade (Figure 3). Year Map 12: Deyr ’06/’07 Production By District The overall above-normal production level this Deyr season is attributed to the above-normal production of 41°0'0"E 43°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 49°0'0"E rainfed cereal crops, as the result of timely, well dis- Alula12°0'0"N DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden Kandala Zeylac Bosaso tributed, and above-normal amounts of Deyr rainfall Lughaye Badhan Awdal Erigavo Baki Berbera Iskushuban throughout the season and country. This overall good Borama El Afwein Sanag Bari Woq. Galbeed Sheikh 10°0'0"N production level was achieved despite the fact that most 10°0'0"N GabileyHargeisa Burco Gardo Odweine Xudun Caynaba Taleh Bender Beila Togdheer of the riverine cereal crops (i.e. maize) were destroyed Sool by severe ﬂ oods and rains. Buhodle Lasanod Garowe Nugal Eyl 8°0'0"N 8°0'0"N Burtinle

The three regions with exceptional rainfed crop produc- Jariban Goldogob Galkayo tion are Bakool, Bay and Middle Juba, for which Deyr ETHIOPIA

cereal production is 398%, 228% and 124% of the Deyr Adado Mudug Abudwaq Hobyo 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N

PWA, respectively. Hiran region also had near-normal Dusa Mareb

Galgadud Indian Ocean cereal production this season (94% of Deyr PWA), which Haradhere El Barde Belet Weyne El Bur Bakol is 544% of last Deyr ’05/’06 (Table 5). The main con- Rab-Dhuure Hiran Hudur El Der Dolo Bulo Burti Wajid Tieglo LEGEND 4°0'0"N tributing factors attributed to the near to above normal 4°0'0"N Luuq Aden Yabal Deyr 2006-7 Crop Production Estimates (MT) Belet Hawa Jalalaqsi Garbahare Baidoa Adale 0 - 100 deyr crop production and national cereal balance and national cereal production crop deyr production in these four regions are exceptional Deyr Gedo M. Shabelle 101 - 500 Qansah Dere Wanle WeyneJowhar El Waq Bay 501 - 1,000 season rains, very good rainfed production, and a lower Bur Hakaba Balad 1,001 - 2,500 Afgoye Bardera Dinsor Qoryoley MOGADISHU 2,501 - 5,000 Banadir/" incidence of pest damage. In addition to the above nor- Sakow L. Shabelle 5,001 - 1,0000 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N Kurtun WarreyMarka M. Juba > 10,000 Sablale Non Agricultural Areas mal cereal production in the three regions of Bay, Bakool Buale Brava Hagar /" National Capital

and Middle Juba, several districts in other regions also Afmadow Jilib Major Road

KENYA Coastline Jamame had good rainfed production, leading to near-normal to L. Juba International Boundary 0°0'0" 0°0'0" above-normal district cereal production levels, includ- Kismayo ± Regional Boundary 400408012016020 District Boundary Badhadhe Kilometers River ing Garbaharey district in Gedo region (87% of Deyr 1 cm equals 65 kilometers Datum: WGS84 Data Source: FSAU, 2006 PWA), Buula-Burte in Hiran region (155% of Deyr PWA), Admin layers: UNDP 1998 Source: FSAU January ’07. Kismayo district in Lower Juba (370% of Deyr PWA), and Afgoye and Wanla-weyn districts in Lower Shabelle (95% and 87% of Deyr PWA, respectively) (Map 12 )

The four regions with lowest Deyr cereal production are Gedo (50% of Deyr PWA), Lower Juba (52% of Deyr PWA), Lower Shabelle (55% of Deyr PWA) and Middle Shabelle (51% of Deyr PWA) (Table 5). The main causes of poor production during this Deyr ’06/’07 are crop losses due to river ﬂ oods, heavy rains and pests (stalk borer and aphids).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 22 Issued March 7, 2007 Despite this season’s low production in these regions, two of these regions – Gedo and Lower Juba recorded cereal production signiﬁ cantly higher than last Deyr season’s production which was devastated by the drought. For Gedo, this season’s cereal production, although half the post war average, is still signiﬁ cantly better than last year’s Deyr season production (317% of Deyr ‘05/06). Likewise, Lower Juba is even more so as last Deyr season production was a complete crop failure (3625% of Deyr ’05/’06).

In a normal year (PWA 1995-2005), three regions produce most, or roughly 79%, of all Deyr cereals in southern Somalia. These three regions are Bay, Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, of which Lower Shabelle contributes the largest share of the cereal production at 36%, followed by Bay region at 29%, and Middle Shabelle at 14% (Deyr PWA). This Deyr season, these three regions produced most of the cereals (82%), even though most of the maize basket areas, Qorioley, Marka, Kurtunware and Afgoye districts of Lower Shabelle and Jowhar and Balad districts of Middle Shabelle, were seriously damaged by fl oods and most maize production failed in this season. Of the three regions, however, most of this cereal or 57% is from Bay region alone (Figure 4). Likewise, riverine cereal production in Juba valley and Hiran riverine areas also failed completely due to fl ooding. Serious fl oods during October-November in riverine areas of Juba and Shabelle Valleys led to signifi cant riverine crop failure. The total deyr crop production and national cereal balance Deyr season planted area destroyed by river fl oods in southern Somalia is estimated at 53,000ha of maize, 70,000ha of sesame and 9,322ha of cowpeas. Similarly about 10,500ha of irrigated sorghum were destroyed in Hiran, while an additional 21,600ha of sorghum were destroyed by fl ash fl oods in Lower Shabelle. Consequently, cereal production from riverine areas is very low or nonexistent in many areas.

Extensive fl ooding, however, provides opportunities for Figure 4: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’06 Cereal off-season fl ood recessional crop production. Lower Production Shabelle Dhexe Bakool Shabelle, Lower Juba and Middle Shabelle, as well as Juba Dhexe 6% 5% Hiran and Gedo regions, are all expected to benefi t from 4% off-season maize fl ood recession production, with har- vests expected from March, which could contribute an Shabelle Hoose 19% estimated additional 20,160MT (of which 36% is from Lower Shabelle, 34% Middle Shabelle, 15% Juba Valley, Juba Hoose 12% Hiran and 3% Gedo region). FSAU will conduct an 1% Bay off-season crop survey of fl ood recessional areas in April Hiraan 57% to confi rm the actual off-season crop harvest. 6% Gedo 2% Table 6: Northwest Gu/Karan ’06 Cereal Crop Production Establishment Estimates

Gu/Karan 2006 Production in MT Gu 2006 as % of Gu Gu 2006 as % of Gu Regions Sorghum Maize Total Cereal 2005 PWA Awdal 3,750 828 4,578 91% 147% Galbeed 17,658 2,163 19,821 100% 148% Togdheer 579 42 621 66% 129% Gu -Karan 2005 21,987 3,033 25,020 97% 147%

Figure 5: Sorghum and Maize Production 06 Compared to Figure 6: Regional Contribution Gu/Karan ’06 Cereal Post War Average (1998-2005) in Somaliland Establishment Estimates per District/ Region 30,000 Awdal 18% 25,000 Maize Togdheer Sorghum PWA(1995-2005) 2% 20,000

15,000 MT Hargeisa

10,000 5% Gebiley

5,000 75%

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Years In the northwest, the Gu/Karan ‘06 rains were very good and as a result Gu/Karan crop production is estimated at roughly 25,000MT, which is above normal for the region (147% of PWA) (Table 6). In the northwest, there is only one cycle of cereal production annually and it is harvested in late November and early December. Gebiley, the highest cereal producing district in the region, contributed more than 75% of the total cereal production, followed by Awdal district with 18% of the total production (Figure 6). This year’s Gu/Karan cereal production is the third highest over the last 7 years (2000-2006) and the three highest production levels fall within the last four consecutive years (Figure 5).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 23 Issued March 7, 2007 Maize production Figure 7: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’06 Maize Production The Shabelle region is the maize basket area in southern Shabelle Dhexe Bakool 8% Somalia. In this Deyr season, maize planting started Juba Dhexe 4% earlier than usual, beneﬁ ting from the occasional rains in 0%

late August to early September. Most of the established Shabelle Hoose crops were irrigated prior to the onset of the Deyr rains. 34% Bay At the start of the Deyr rains in October, maize crops were 44% hit by torrential rains and severe river fl oods. As a result, the most potential maize-producing areas experienced Juba Hoose Gedo Hiraan complete crop failure and /or poor harvest. In Lower 4% 1% 5% Shabelle maize production is 29% of the Deyr maize PWA and Middle Shabelle is 19% of the Deyr maize PWA. Deyr ’06/’07 maize production in Middle Juba, Gedo and Hiran Figure 8: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’06 Sorghum regions was similarly affected by serious fl ood damage Production and was 0%, 6% and 46% of Deyr maize PWA, respec- Shabelle Dhexe Bakool tively. For the Middle Juba, Gedo and Hiran regions, the Juba Dhexe 5% 5% 5% maize production losses this season are compounded and Shabelle Hoose preceded by several consecutive seasons (2004-2006) of 16% poor maize production. Juba Hoose 0% Bay Deyr ’06/’07 maize production in southern Somalia is 60% Hiraan only 50% of the Deyr maize PWA due to the failure of 6% most maize crops caused by fl ooding in the Juba and Gedo Shabelle riverine areas. Based on the FSAU Post Deyr 3% Flood Impact Survey (December ‘06), it is estimated that roughly 40% of the Deyr season cereal planted was fl ooded in the riverine areas, or a total of roughly 53,000ha, of which 42,000ha was in the Shabelle Valley (including Hiran) and 11,000ha was in the Juba Valley (including Gedo). In addition, it is estimated that approximately 70,000ha of sesame and 9,000ha of cowpeas were fl ooded. Further- more, fl ash fl oods destroyed an estimated 22,000ha of rainfed sorghum in the Shabelle Valley.

However, as already noted, it is expected that off-season ﬂ ood recession maize production and cash crops (sesame) will be good from the riverine areas of Shabelle Valley and the desheks in Juba Valley. An estimated 20,160MT of off-season maize is expected to offset the poor harvest of irrigated maize in southern Somalia if not affected by unforeseen events.

Sorghum production Deyr ’06/’07 sorghum production, estimated at roughly 89,049MT, is signiﬁ cantly above normal, at 164% of Deyr sorghum PWA (54,199 MT). Sorghum production performed well due to very good Deyr rains which were well distributed through the season and in geographical coverage, with above normal cumulative amounts at good intensity (light and continuous). This Deyr season sorghum production is signiﬁ cantly higher than last year’s Deyr season (620% of Deyr ’05/’06), not only because this season’s production is above normal production, but also because the Deyr ’05/’06 rains failed and there was almost a complete cereal crop failure (39% of Deyr cereal PWA).

In rainfed agro-pastoral and pastoral zones in Southern Somalia, sorghum is the most important staple cereal, while deyr crop production and national cereal balance and national cereal production crop deyr maize is the most important for riverine and urban livelihoods. Deyr ’06/’07 sorghum production is four times greater than maize production in terms of MT (Table 5). This Deyr season 75% of the total Deyr ’06/’07 sorghum production comes from two regions: Bay (60%) and Lower Shabelle (15%) (Figure 8). The remaining 24% comes from six other regions in the south: Middle Shabelle (6%), Hiran (6%), Bakool (5%), Middle Juba (4%), Gedo (2%) and Lower Juba (1%).

Cereal prices Cereal prices in southern Somalia peaked in the ﬁ rst half of 2006 due to overall low cereal supply following the extremely poor crop performance of the Gu ‘05 and the Deyr ‘05/06 (Figure 9). Cereal prices began to decline in most regions, following improved production in the Gu ‘06. Currently, cereal prices in all three main southern regions are signiﬁ cantly lower than their peak levels in early 2006 (Figure 9). In the Sorghum Belt (Gedo, Hiran, Bay and Bakool regions), January 2007 sorghum prices were 62% lower than their peak levels in March 2006, in Juba Valley the January 2007 maize prices were 66% lower than their peak levels in June 2006, and in the Shabelle Valley January 2007 maize prices were 52% lower than their peak levels in May 2006.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 24 Issued March 7, 2007 Sorghum prices are continuing to decline and are expected Figure 9: Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (US$) 0.60 to decline further as the bumper sorghum harvest of the Juba Valley (Maize White) Shabelle Valley (Maize White) NorthWest (Imported Rice) NorthEast (Imported Rice)

Deyr season enters the market. Maize prices, however, 0.50 Sorghum Belt (Sorghum Red) Central (Imported Rice) increased slightly from December ‘06 and are expected to continue to increase over the coming months, due to the 0.40

overall poor performance of Deyr season maize produc- 0.30 tion. In addition, cereal prices could potentially increase Price per Kg (US$) further depending on increased instability in Mogadishu, 0.20 increased road blocks and banditry throughout the south- 0.10 ern regions, and escalation of conﬂ ict in different regions, such as Juba and Central regions. In the coming months, 0.00 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n one of the critical risk factors to monitor will be the ﬂ ow Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja and prices of cereals from areas of high production (rain- Month fed), to areas of low production (riverine), as well as the progress of off-season cereal and cash crop production in deyr crop production and national cereal balance the riverine areas.

Cereal Balance Sheet The annual Cereal Balance Sheet for the period of June ‘06 through May ’07 issued in August ’06 (see Technical Series Report, 2006 Post Gu Analysis, No. V. 9, September, 15, 2006) is revised to include actual Deyr season production and Northwest Gu/Karan Crop Production (Table 7). In the Annual Cereal Balance Sheet released in August, these two components were projected (Deyr) or establishment estimates only (Gu/Karan).

Currently, within this revised Annual Cereal Balance Damaged Rainfed Maize, North Brava, Lower Shabelle Sheet, domestic cereal supply is now based on actual southern Somalia Gu ‘06 crop production estimates, Northwest Gu/Karan post harvest crop estimates and actual Post Deyr ’06/’07 crop production. All other components of the Cereal Balance Sheet remain the same, except Food Aid is updated with more current information from CARE and WFP and commercial cereal imports is updated with actual imports for June - December 2006.

Annual commercial cereal imports are based on actual cereal imports for the period June- December 2006 plus projected cereal for the period January - May 2006. Pro- jected cereal imports for the period January - May 2006 are based on the three-year average cereal imports from January - May (2003- 2005) for Berbera, Bosasso, El-maan and Jezira ports. So far, this year’s actual commercial im- Exceptional Sorghum Crop, Wajid, Bakool Region, Dec. ‘06 ports follow the same overall trend, but are signifi cantly Figure 10: Commercial Cereal Import Trends higher (Figure 10). (2003- 2005) 60,000 Estimated cereal imports consist of rice, wheat fl our, 2,006 MT and pasta, all expressed in cereal equivalents. Food Aid 50,000 Average 2003-2005 imports are not included as part of the commercial cereal import fi gures. Calculations and data sources are fully 40,000 referenced in the footnotes of Table 7. 30,000 The revised Annual Cereal Balance Sheet (June 2006 to May 2007) indicates: 20,000

10,000 x Generally, no overall cereal supply defi cit for June Cereal Imports (Cereal Equivalents) 2006 to May 2007 0 x Estimated Cereal Surplus/Defi cit (without Food Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Aid included) is between a surplus of 71,000MT Year and a defi cit of 36,000MT, depending on the as-

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 25 Issued March 7, 2007 sumption of net commercial import levels. If the anticipated Deyr off-season crop production fails, then the range is between a surplus of 49,000MT and a deﬁ cit of 57,000MT x Estimated Cereal Surplus (with Food Aid included) is between 190,000MT and 84,000MT x Estimated domestic cereal supply covers only 42% of total domestic cereal requirements x Net commercial cereal imports are estimated to cover between 46%- 60% of total domestic cereal requirements, depending on the assumptions of net commercial import levels.

It is important to highlight that the Cereal Balance Sheet analysis (excluding the Food Aid) does not take into account the food access problems faced by populations identiﬁ ed in either Humanitarian Emergency (HE), or Acute Food and Livelihood Crises (AFLC). Even if cereal is available in the local markets, populations in these two phases either have inadequate resources (cash, credit or own production) to buy staple foods in the market (HE), or they may have adequate resources to access market purchases, but at the cost of stripping their livelihood assets (AFLC).

The Cereal Balance Sheet only provides an overall indication and estimation for the macro-level cereal supply and demand situation for the entire country, i.e. overall cereal supply in terms of overall per capita needs. It does not account for regional differences or blockages in cereal supply and ﬂ ows, nor does it account for problems of food access related to vulnerability.

Table 7: Annual Cereal Balance Sheet (June 2006 to May 2007) UPDATED CEREAL BALANCE SHEET CEREAL BALANCE SHEET AT JULY ‘06 AT Annual Cereal Balance Sheet for JANUARY ‘07 Somalia 75% Net 75% Net 100% Net Commercial 100% Net Commercial (June 2006 to May 2007) Commercial Commercial Imports Imports Imports Imports1 (‘000MT) (‘000MT) (‘000MT) (‘000MT) DOMESTIC AVAILABILITY 298 289 Opening Stocks2 60 16 Domestic Cereal Supply ’04/05 238 273

Gu 20063 113 113

Gu Karan 2006 Northwest4 20 25

Off-season Gu 20065 33

Deyr 06/076 102 111

Off-Season Deyr 06-077 21 DOMESTIC UTILISATION Cereal Utilization Requirements8 643 643 IMPORT REQUIREMENTS

Anticipated Commercial Imports9 390 295 424 318

ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT CEREAL 45 -50 70 -36 Food Aid Distributed, Transit and Pipeline10 70 70 120 120 ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT CEREAL 115 20 190 84

List of assumptions and calculations:

deyr crop production and national cereal balance and national cereal production crop deyr 1 Anticipated commercial imports estimated as 70 percent of imports from Berbera and Bossaso ports, and 90 percent of imports from El Maan and Jazira ports. This caters for imports assumed to be going into Ethiopia. 2 Estimated opening stock consists of food aid and commercial import stocks at ports to markets. The updated Cereal Balance Sheet uses as a rough estimate commercial stocks of 16,000MT based on FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, Sept 3, 1999. Previously, commercial stock included food aid, but in the updated Cereal Balance Sheet this is now distributed food aid (see footnote 10). 3 2006 Gu Crop production estimates in Southern Somalia is 112875MT (rounded to 113,000MT). 4 Gu-Karan 2006 crop production estimates for Northwest Somalia is 25,020MT (rounded to 25,000MT). 5 Actual off-season Gu crop production is 3,081MT (rounded to 3,000MT) based on Post harvest off-season assessment. 6 2006/7 Deyr Crop production estimates in Southern Somalia is 110,856 MT (rounded to 111,000MT). 7 Off-season Deyr crop production estimates are 20,960MT (rounded to 21,000MT). 8 Total cereal utilization requirement composed of 600,000 MT food use, 3000MT feed use, seed losses which are 10 percent of the crop production and 60,000MT closing stock. ‘Food use’ calculated based on assumption of total population of 7,502,654 (UNDP SOMALIA, 1st August 2006) and per capita cereal consumption of 80kg/year (1999 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, September 9, 1999). Per capita cereal consumption in Somalia is lower than would be dictated by the standard 2,100 kilocalorie per capita per day. The percentage of kilocalories from cereals needs further research. Feed use and seed losses based on estimates derived for Cereal Supply/Demand Balance, 1999/2000, FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, September 9, 1999. 9 Given that actual imports for June to December 2006 are signifi cantly higher as compared to projected 3 year average cereal imports, the updated Cereal Balance Sheet does not use the three year projection. Instead actual commercial imports (adjusted for food aid imported) for June-December is used (278,659 MT) plus projected commercial imports for the Jan- May 2007 based on 3 year average commercial imports Jan to May (145,598MT). Estimated commercial imports consist of rice, wheat fl our and pasta. These are expressed in cereal equivalents with conversion factors of wheat fl our = 1.33, pasta=2.00 and rice= 1. Note: Three year average cereal imports (Jan –Dec) 2003 to 2005, for Berbera, Bossaso, El-Ma’an and Jazira (Mogadishu) Ports, is 390,927MT (rounded to 391,000), with 409,864MT in 2003, 369,820MT in 2004, and 393,927MT in 2005. Data are from Berbera and Bossaso Offi cial Port Import Statistics and, El-Ma’an and Jazira (Mogadishu) Port Figures collected by WFP. 10 In the updated Cereal Balance Sheet of Jan. ‘07, from June 2006 to January 2007, WFP distributed 40,560MT of food in Somalia, with an estimated 10,400MT in stock and 6,800MT in transit or pipeline .In the same period, CARE distributed 40,918MT of food in Somalia and had 20,912MT in stock as of December 2006.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 26 Issued March 7, 2007 3.4 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND EXPORT

Livestock production and migration Map 13: Livestock Migration Trends Oct - Dec ‘06

N 42°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 48°0'0"E N 12°0'0" The livestock sector is the main foundation for the na- 12°0'0" Alula

Gulf of Aden BOSSASO Kandala tional economy and the majority of the Somali population DJIBOUTIDJIBOUTI .! Zeylac Bossaso relies on the livestock sector and related activities as a Lughaye .! Lasqoray Baki Erigabo Berbera BARI Iskushuban AWDAL El Afwein SANAG means of livelihood. Camel, cattle, sheep and goats are Borama.! Sheikh BORAMAW. GALBEED Gebiley BURAO .! .! Hargeisa Hudun the primary livestock species for the pastoralist and the Ainabo Owdweine Burao SOOL Taleh Gardo Bandar Beyla 9°0'0"N agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Normally, the main food TOGDHEER Garowe 9°0'0"N GAROWE Buhodle .! .! and income sources come from livestock, livestock prod- Las Anod NUGAL

Burtinle Eyl

ucts, and livestock trade. Pastoralists confront serious Jariiban

Galdogob hardships from the recurrent droughts, conﬂ icts, export GALKAYO .! restrictions, environmental degradation and endemic ETHIOPIA Galkayo Adado MUDUG Abudwaq Hobyo 6°0'0"N livestock diseases. 6°0'0"N GALGADUD.! Dusa Mareb Indian Ocean Belet Weyne BELET WEYNE El Barde .! El Bur Haradheere The overall Deyr ‘06/07 seasonal performance was BAKOOL Rab-Dhuure Hudur.!HUDUR normal to above normal throughout most of the country, Dolo HIIRAN El Der Wajid Tieglow

Bulo Burti Aden Yabal GARBAHAREY Luuq Baidoa Jalalaqsi except for small localized pockets in eastern Sanag, north Belet Hawa .! Adale Garbaharey .! Jowhar Qansah Dere JOWHAR M. SHABELLE .! 3°0'0"N Wanle Weyne 3°0'0"N of Jariban, southern Garowe, Adado and Dhusamareb El WaqGEDO LEGEND livestock production and export BAY Buur Hakaba Afgooye Balad Livestock Migration (see Climate Sector). Rangelands conditions throughout Dinsor /"BANADIR Bardera Qoryoley Normal Opportunistic Migration Sakow Kurtunwaarey.! Marka most of the country are signiﬁ cantly improved due to M. JUBA Sablale L. SHABELLE Abnorrmal Migration .!BU'AALE Buale Barawe Afmadow Abnormal Migration Indicators

well distributed and above normal Deyr ‘06/07 rains. KENYA Jilib 1. Timing Water and pasture availability is average to very good L. JUBA Jamame 2. Distance

0°0'0" KISMAAYO 0°0'0" in most parts of the key pastoral areas in the Northwest, Kismayo .! ± 3. Magnitude Northeast, Central, and in the previously drought affected Badhadhe Datum: WGS84 5025 0 50 100 150 200 Data Source: FSAU, 2007 Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998 regions of Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Juba (Table 8). Excep- Kilometers Updated: January, 2007 tions are localized pockets in eastern Sanaag and the area 42°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 48°0'0"E between Garowe and Jariban districts where rains were below normal. Importantly, the abundance of water, pasture and browse ensures a mild Jilaal season, the normally harsh long dry season between January and March.

As the result of widespread availability of pasture, browse and water, there is minimal livestock migration in most regions and migrations is confi ned to the traditional wet season grazing areas. Exceptions include pastoralists in localized areas of poor rainfall in eastern Sanaag who have moved westwards into good pasture areas and pastoralists on the Kenya/Somalia border area who have moved further inland due to confl ict (Map 13). No unusual cross border livestock movements have been reported from the neighboring countries of Ethiopia and Kenya, as rainfall performance in these countries was also reported to be average or above average. Improved rangeland conditions have led to signifi cant improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity for all livestock species throughout the country (Table 8). In the drought affected areas of the south and central regions, livestock began to recover following the Gu ’06 rains and the exceptional rangeland conditions following the Deyr ‘06/’07 rains will serve as a further boost to their recovery. In the worst drought affected regions of Gedo, Juba, Bay and Bakool, as well as in Hiran and parts of Central region, calving and kidding, as well as milk production was low in Deyr ‘06/07 (Table 9).

Table 8: Water, Rangeland and Livestock Body Conditions Region Water availability Pasture condition Body condition Migration pattern Very good for all Gedo Very good in all districts Very good in all districts Normal migration within region species Very good for all Juba Valley Very good in all districts Very good in all districts Normal migration within region species Average to Good in all Bay/Bakool Good in all districts Good for all species Normal migration within region districts Shabelle Very good for all Very good in all districts Very good in all districts Normal migration within region Valley species Average improving for Hiiran Average in all districts Good in all districts Normal migration within region all species Galgaduud & Average with localized Good in hinterland and Average improving for Normal migration within region South Mudug pocket of poor average in coastal areas all species Average with localized Northeast Very good in all districts Good for all species Normal migration within regions pocket of poor Normal migration within region, but some pastorals migrated from Shinile of Very good for all Northwest Good in all districts Very good in all districts Zone V Ethiopia to Guban (Seylac dis- species trict), and abnormal from eastern Sanag to Nugal and western Sanag areas

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 27 Issued March 7, 2007 However, high conception in the Hagaa (Sept. - Oct. ’06) following livestock body condition recovery in the Gu ’06, means that high kidding is anticipated in February-March ’07 and high calving in April-May ’07. Currently, most livestock in all the drought affected regions are currently conceived. This follows normal trends in which exceptionally high rates of conception follow extended drought periods as livestock body conditions recover. In Gedo and Juba regions, despite the ongoing livestock recovery, it will take several seasons for the livestock herds to fully recover as a result of the signiﬁ cant reductions in livestock holdings caused by high livestock mortality and stress livestock sales during the drought (between 40% to 60% losses for cattle and 15% -40% losses for sheep and goats, See FSAU 2006 Post Gu Report, No. V. 9, September 15, 2006). For Bay region, agro-pastoral livestock holdings are not only smaller than in Juba and Gedo, the livestock losses during the drought were also not as severe as in Gedo and Juba region (only between 15%-25% losses for cattle and 0-15% losses for sheep/goats). For this reason, livestock holdings are anticipated to be recovered by June 2007, through livestock purchases and calving/kidding.

In the northwest and northeast regions, sheep/goat kidding and lambing rates were high in Deyr ‘06/’07 and high rates are also expected in April – May ’07, due to high conception during Oct.-Dec. ’06. Consequently, milk production was good in most areas during the Deyr ‘06/07 and is expected to be high in April – May ’07 (Table 9). Camel calving rates, however, were low, but conception was high which means that high calving will be expected in next Deyr ’07/08. Increased sheep/goat milk availability, translates into improved household consumption and sales. All pastoralists in the 2002-2004 drought affected areas, after ﬁ ve seasons of good rains and continuing recovery, have now fully recovered their livestock sheep and goat livestock holdings.

Cases of an unknown camel disease, affecting mainly adult animals, have been reported in all the regions except Juba. The camel disease originated in bordering Ethiopia, where it has been monitored for the last few 3-4 years. The disease is disperse, not affecting all pastoralists or herds, has no observable symptoms, and results in the sudden collapse and death of the camel. Reports suggest that localised rates of mortality within herds affected are around 10-20%. FSAU will continue to monitor the situation and its potential impact on the livestock sector.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF), which has been confi rmed in cross-border areas of north-eastern Kenya, also remains a concern for pastoral recovery in southern Somalia. After an analysis of the conditions and vector of spread, the most likely scenario is that if RVF were to be confi rmed in Somalia, the likely impact would not be as severe as the 1997/1998 outbreak in terms of spread and direct impact. This is due to the shorter rainfall period (Deyr ’97/’98 compared to Deyr ‘06/’07 season), the current drying of previously fl ooded pastoral areas, and the limited cross- border livestock migration (see Section 3.4.1).

Table 9: Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Trends in LS Milk Conception Calving/kidding Expected Calving/Kidding Region Holdings Production (Deyr ‘06) (Deyr ‘06) Jan-June, ‘07 (Oct. 05 – Dec 06) (Deyr ‘06) Cattle: unchanged (no Camel: low calving in April-June07 due to low calving) conception Gu06. Camel: slight increase Camel: low Cattle: low calving in Feb-March07 due to low

livestock production and export livestock production Below Gedo (some calving) High for all species Cattle: none to low conception Gu06, high calving in Apr-May 07 average Sheep/goats: slight Sheep/goats: medium due to high conception Jul-Sep06 increase (medium Sheep/goats: high kidding in April-May07 due kidding) to high conception in Oct-Dec06 Camel: medium calving April-May07 due to Cattle: unchanged (no Camel: medium to high medium conception Gu06 calving) Camel: low Cattle: low (all to calve Cattle: low calving in Feb-March07 due to low Camel: slight (some Cattle: low to none Below Juba Valley in Feb07) conception in Gu06,but high calving in April- calving) Sheep/goats: medium average Sheep/goats: high to May ’07 due to high conception July-Sept ‘06 Sheep/goats: medium to high medium Sheep/goats: high kidding in Feb-March07 due increase (more kidding) to high conception July-Sep06 Camel: medium to high calving in April-May07 Cattle: unchanged (no due to medium and high conception in Gu06 calving) Camel: low Bay/ Below Cattle: low calving in Feb-March07 due low to Camel: slight increase High for all species Cattle: none to low Bakool average medium conception in Gu6. Sheep/goats: slight Sheep/goats: high Sheep/goats: high kidding April-May06 due to increase high conception Oct-Dec06

Camel: low calving Apr-May07 due to low Camel: Low, Camel: none to low Camel: high conception in Gu06 Northeast Sheep/goats: medium Shoats: high to Good Sheep/goats: high Sheep/goats: high kidding in April-May07 due increase medium high conception in Oct-Dec06.

Camel: medium to low in Apr-May07 due to low Camel: medium increase Camel: High Camel: none to low conception in Gu06 Northwest Sheep/goats: medium Good Sheep/goats: High Shoats: high Sheep/goats: high kidding in Apr-May07 due to increase high conception in Oct-Dec06

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 28 Issued March 7, 2007 Table 10: Livestock Exports from Berbera January Table 11: Livestock Exports from Bossaso January – December ’06 – December ’06

Livestock Exports from Berbera Livestock Exports from Bossaso Month Sheep/goats Cattle Camel Month Sheep/goats Cattle Camel January 99,956 9,142 563 January 86,480 6,080 3,064 February 56,053 8,628 1,884 February 80,935 11,250 6,215 March 86,187 6,020 4,170 March 95,220 6,183 8,450 April 66,784 4,005 4,384 April 119,872 7,059 7,045 May 67,553 3,942 876 May 127,880 5,939 1,070 June 56,919 3,803 1,703 June 113,710 11,905 861 July 88,887 8,807 1,023 July 183,040 11,900 988 August 76,096 7,782 2,286 August 118,470 12,645 1,790 September 65,451 6,671 2,404 September 173,430 9,605 1,200 October 105,543 8,373 1,451 October 177,100 7,538 1,690 November 80,433 9,998 1,376 November 140,500 5,720 1,217 December 167,380 8,460 690 December 360,646 8,771 130 Total 1,017,242 85,631 22,810 Total 1,777,283 104,595 33,720

Southern Somalia Livestock Trade Figure 11: Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Cattle (US$)

250 It is roughly estimated that three quarters of the total Sorghum Belt Shabelle Valley cattle population in Somalia reside in Southern Soma- 200 Juba Valley livestock production and export lia, of which most are destined for the export markets NorthEast in Kenya. In the mid-December ’06, the closure of the 150 NorthWest cattle market and slaughter houses in Garissa, Kenya, (Somalia’s primary cross-border livestock market) due 100 to the Rift Valley Fever outbreak in the northeastern Price per Head of Cattle (US$) 50 province of Kenya translated into an immediate halt

ofall cattle trade from Somalia to Kenya. As a result, the 0

5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 - - r- - - - l- - -0 - - -0 - c n b r y n u g p t v c n e a e a p a u J u e c o e a supply of cattle to the main export transit markets within D J F M A M J A S O N D J Somalia was reduced (i.e. Afmadow, Baidoa, Jowhar, Month Afgoi, Qoriolei and Dinsor). All the markets in Somalia, Figure 12: Regional Trend in Local Quality Goat however, continued to function as local demand markets Prices (US$) for sheep, goats, camel, and cattle. 45

Sorghum Belt Shabelle Valley 40 Juba Valley NorthEast The closure of the cattle market in Garissa (Kenya) and 35 NorthWest Central

the disruption of cattle trade will negatively impact So- 30

mali pastoral livelihoods and the livelihoods of traders 25

and herds dependent on cattle trade. However, in the 20 short term, over the next six months it is projected that 15 the overall impact on rural pastoral food and livelihood Price per Head of Goat (US$) 10 security will be less, as most pastoralists recovering from 5 the drought are currently retaining cattle for restocking, 0

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 most cattle are currently conceived, and high calving is -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J anticipated in April-March ’07. In addition, the prospect Month of an extremely mild Jilaal dry season (January – April) ensures there is limited need to sell cattle to cover costs of water and transportation (one of the primary reasons pastoralists sell cattle during the Jilaal season). In terms of cereals, pastoralists generally only trade sheep/goats for cereal, and these markets within Somalia remain functional.

In southern regions, livestock prices for all species have increased signiﬁ cantly over the last six months, following the recovery of livestock body conditions and productivity. January ’07 cattle prices increased 247% in Juba, 195% in the Sorghum Belt and 140% in Shabelle since they collapsed last January ’06 (Figure 11). Sheep and goat prices have shown similar levels of increase and are currently at their highest levels in several years.

Local quality goat prices increased 386% in Juba, 191% in the Sorghum Belt and 142% in Shabelle since last January ’06 (compared to January ’07 prices) (Figure 12). As a result of signiﬁ cantly increased livestock prices, combined with reduced cereal prices, the terms of trade (livestock and cereals) or the measure of purchasing power of pastoralists, is also signiﬁ cantly improved in all markets as compared to the peak of the drought (January ’06). For example, January ’07 terms of trade for sheep/goat to cereals is 905%, 319% and 203% of terms of trade in January ’06, for Juba Valley, the Sorghum Belt, and Shabelle Valley respectively (see FSAU Market Update, January 2007).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 29 Issued March 7, 2007 Northern Livestock Trade

Livestock exported through Berbera and Bossaso Ports Figure 13: Berbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) to the Arabian Gulf states are predominantly sheep and and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)2 goats, with the highest numbers exported in response to 700 40 650 the high demand period of Ramadan and Hajj (September 600 35

Thousands 550 30 – November ‘06). Apart from these months, a consider- 500 able amount of live animals are continuously exported 450 25 400 350 Shoats Cattle 20 throughout the year (Figure 13). Livestock export ﬁ gures Camel Hargesia Galkayo Burao 300 Bossaso recorded from Berbera and Bossaso ports indicate that a 250 15

200 Price Per Head (US$) 10 total of more than three million live animals (3,041,281) 150

were exported through these two ports during 2006, of Livestock Exports (Heads) 100 5 50 which 92% were sheep/goats (2,794,525 sheep/goats, 0 0 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - l- - - - - c- n b r r y- n g p ct v- c- n 190,226 cattle and 56,530 camel). Total exports in 2006 e e a p a Ju u e o e D Ja F M A M Ju A S O N D Ja were higher (124%) than the average annual exports for Month the previous three years (2003-05) and are almost as high (91%) as the pre-1997 peak export levels (Table 12).

Table 12: Livestock Export Trends: Bosaaso & Berbera Ports Pre - & Post War

L/s Export Trends: Berbera and Bossaso Ports (Pre & Post- War Species Av ‘95-’97 Av’03-’05 2006 % Av ‘95-’97 % Av ‘03-’05 Sheep/Goat 3,169,270 2,230,351 2,794,525 88 125 Cattle 113,718 202,516 190,226 167 94 Camel 52,945 21,649 56,530 107 261 Total 3,335,933 2,454,516 3,041,281 91 124

Of the total 3,041,281 live animals that were exported in Table 13: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Belet weyn 2006, most or 63% were exported through Bossaso Port, & Mogadishu Abattoir (January – December 06) while the remaining 37% were exported through Ber- GRAND TOTAL : 319,402 HEADS BURAO BELET WEYN MOGADISHU bera Port. Bossaso Port recorded an increase in export MONTH ABATTOIR ABATTOIR ABATTOIR volumes compared to 2005 (112%), while Berbera had JANUARY 6,000 8,699 NA shown a slight reduction (9%) due to high levy and poor FEBRUARY 5,000 9,298 NA trade relations with Zone 5 and Central regions. MARCH 4,000 6,270 NA APRIL 15,000 10,381 NA Export quality sheep/goat prices have not only shown MAY 0 8,649 8,000 a stable increasing trend over the past year in the main JUNE 6,000 8,649 8,000 JULY 1,094 11,063 12,000 reference markets in the north (Galkayo, Burao, Bossaso AUGUST 14,604 11,682 12,000 and Hargeisa) (Figure 12), but are currently at an all time SEPTEMBER 18,315 15,429 19,200 high covering a period of more than 10 years (see FSAU OCTOBER 17,447 15,661 12,000 livestock production and export livestock production Market Update, February 2007). Export quality sheep NOVEMBER 15,674 6,646 10,000 and goats prices are expected to slightly decline over the DECEMBER 18,724 3,917 NA TOTAL 121,858 116,344 81,200 coming months following normal seasonal trends related

Improved Pasture, Buale, Middle Juba, Dec ‘06 Improving Livestock Body Conditions Bansoﬁ , Wajid, Bakool, Dec. ‘06

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 30 Issued March 7, 2007 to the lower seasonal demand after Ramadan and Hajj which ended in late December ‘06. Similarly terms of trade between imported cereal and exported goats show a dramatic increase of 58% in the Northeast/central regions and a considerable increase of 19% in the Northwest (December ‘06 compared to July ‘06).

In late January, Arabian Gulf states began to return live animal and chilled meat shipments from Somalia and imposed an informal livestock ban in response to reported outbreaks of RVF in northeastern Kenya and suspected cases in Southern Somalia (see next page). As a result, January ’07 exports for Bossaso and Berbera Ports (134,920 heads) were only 65% of anticipated exports (as compared to January ’06 export levels of 205,285 heads). The immediate impact of this ban on pastoralist food and livelihood security in the very short term, however, is not great as pastoralists have just beneﬁ ted from the peak export demand period (Oct. – Dec.), with high terms of trade. FSAU, however, will continue to monitor the livestock trade market, the livestock ban, and its potential impact on food and livelihood security carefully in the coming months.

Chilled Meat Export

The exportation of chilled meat from abattoirs or slaughter houses is a newly developing export sector in Somalia, which provides an additional livestock supply market for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. The four leading abattoirs in Mogadishu, Burao, Galkayo and Belet Weyne export chilled goat meat to the Arabian Gulf states by daily or sometimes weekly ﬂ ights. Since January 2006, FSAU began monitoring the exportation of chilled meat from

the three abattoirs of Burao, Belet Weyne, and Mogadishu, and are currently working to set a more comprehensive livestock production and export monitoring system for all four abattoirs. Export numbers provided in Table 13 should be considered as indicative and rough estimates as systematic data collection from the abattoirs has not been fully developed yet. Export volumes reported, however, are generally indicative of overall levels and trends.

Total exports from the three abattoirs from January to December 2006 are roughly estimated at 319,402 heads, although Mogadishu export numbers are not complete for every month (information is incomplete, but it is not clear whether there were exports during these months are not) (Table 13). Although abattoirs are an important emerging market, for pastoralists selling their live animals the additional demand created by the chilled market currently is fairly is small compared to the live export market (less than 10%).

There was a marked increase in the amount of chilled meat exported from the Burao and Belet Weyne abattoir between July and December ’06, as compared to the previous six month period for (January to June ’06). Between July–December ‘06 a total of 150,256 heads of chilled meat were exported from these two ports, which is a 170% increase compared to total chilled meat exported between January-June ‘06 (87,946 heads of chilled meat). In general, chilled meat prices increased in all markets over the last year. On average live export goat prices in Burao market were 29 USD in January ’06 and increased to 38 USD by December ’06. Similarly, in Belet Weyne export goat prices were also 29 US in January, ’06 and 39 USD in December ’06. FSAU will closely monitor the ban on chilled meat exports, which was in effect from early January.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 31 Issued March 7, 2007 3.4.1 FSAU’S MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: RVF AND ITS IMPACT ON FOOD AND LIVELIHOOD SECURITY AMONG JUBA AND GEDO AGRO-PASTORALISTS AND PASTORALISTS Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is an acute, fever-causing virus that affects livestock and humans and is transmittable from animals to humans. The disease is associated with unusual climatic conditions (heavy/prolonged rainfall), abnormally high mosquito populations (infected mosquito eggs to hatch), and the disease is mainly transmitted through mosquito bite. The epidemic of RVF typically occurs in 5-20 year cycles following heavy and prolonged rains. RVF primarily affects livestock and outbreaks can rapidly result in large number of animals exhibiting clinical disease ‘epizootic’. Though adult animal mortality is low (less than 10% of herd), there is a high mortality among young animals particularly calves and kids and very high abortions rates (80-90%). Somalia and many other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar and the Arabian Peninsula are RVF prone regions, especially during periods of heavy, prolonged rainfall, and fl ooding. RVF was fi rst identifi ed in an outbreak of abortions and deaths in exotic wool sheep and illness in humans that occurred in the Rift Valley of Kenya after heavy rainfall in 1930-31. Outbreaks have since occurred in the highlands of Kenya at irregular intervals of 3-15 years. The most recent epizootic in the East African region was in 1997-98 in the drier areas of northeast Kenya and southwest Somalia after heavy El Niño-associated rains. This caused human deaths (estimated around 480)1 and some livestock losses, particularly of camels, but more signifi cantly, disruption to livestock exports to the Middle East from the Horn of Africa. In December 2006, following heavy rains and fl oods, reports began to emerge of an RVF outbreak in northeastern Kenya and later laboratory tests confi rmed the presence of RVF in both humans and livestock. By December 30, a total of 98 suspected human cases of RVF and 44 human deaths (45%) were reported, of which most were in Garissa and Ijara districts, with a few cases in Tana River and Wajir2. In southern Somalia, the Somali Animal Health Services Project (SAHSP) and FAO completed a participatory disease search with the collection of 962 serum samples and 139 whole blood samples. The samples were brought to a laboratory in Nairobi. However, no conclusive results are available to date. Although there were unconfi rmed reports in border areas of Somalia, there has been no laboratory test confi rmation of the presence of RVF in Somalia. No new cases have been reported since February 2, 2007 and the RVF outbreak is believed to be in recession.

As part of FSAU’s food security situational and projection analysis, a ‘Most Likely Scenario’ of RVF and its impact on food and livelihood security for the period of January-June 2007 was developed during the Post Deyr Analysis. This scenario was based on an analytical review comparing the situation during the last outbreak of RVF following the El Nino and ﬂ ooding of the Deyr 1997/98, with the current situation and conditions. The overall outcome of this analytical review was that the current conditions and vector of spread were such that if there was an RVF outbreak in Southern Somalia it would not be as severe or as widespread as the 1997/98 outbreak, and that the overall impact, including both direct and indirect, would be minimal for the projection period of January to June 2007.

More specifi cally, the conclusion of the analytical review was that the current impact would be considerably less than the RVF outbreak in 1997/98 in terms of disease spread, animal deaths and impacts on livestock marketing (Table 15). This is due to a number of mitigating factors of this season as compared to Deyr ’97/’98, including a shorter rainfall period, less severe fl ooding, earlier drying of fl ooded pastoral areas, limited cross-border livestock migration, and other mitigating factors including the market and border closure with Kenya. If RVF was present, it would be localized in pockets and for those directly affected its impact would be to prolong recovery time of livestock herds, especially households who experienced signifi cant asset loss during the drought.

The indirect impacts, such as the closure of the Kenyan cattle market in Garissa, would also have minimal impact on most agro-pastoralists and pastoralists, as most pastoralists are currently retaining cattle for restocking, all their cattle are currently conceived, and high calving is anticipated in April-March ’06. In addition, the mild dry seasons or Jilaal ensures that there will be little need to sell cattle to survive the long dry season (purchase of water, transportation and fodder). Pastoralists and agro-pastorals trade sheep/goats for cereals, for which there are functioning internal markets and terms of trade are highly favourable. The closure of the Kenya cattle market in Garissa and the disruption of cattle trade, however, would negatively impact traders and herds dependent on cattle trade. On the other hand, livestock traders have proven resilient to livestock bans in the past and ﬁ nd alternative routes and markets.

1 Rift Valley Fever, East Africa, 1997-1998; “Hemorrhagic/RVF Outbreak in North Easter Provine, Kenya and South Somalia, December 1997-February 1998”, Report of a WHO Investigation Team, 27 Feb. 1998. 2 FAO, “Rift Valley Fever Presentation, 5 January 2007; “Update on fl oods and disease outbreak situation in Garissa”, Ijara and Tana River districts as of 29 December. A Report compile by WHO fi eld Offi cers in Garissa based on report presented by MoH during coordination meeting in Garissa. Table 14: RVF Risk Scenario Analysis

2. Direct Impact: “If “ occurs will be localized, not 3. Indirect Impact: Minimal in the Short Term (Jan-June ’07) for Most 1. More Limited Spread than ’97 Outbreak widespread Pastoral/Agro-pastoral Households

x Deyr ‘06/’07 was a Mild El Niño, but El x If livestock are infected it would be localized within x Closure of Kenya Cattle Markets (Impact for Juba/Gedo Pastoralists): Niño 1997 was a Strong El Nino pockets, not widespread throughout livestock population Minimal Impact in Short Term x 1997 Deyr rains started earlier and finished due to poor vector spread conditions (see 1) o Currently, pastoralists & agro-pastoralists are retaining cattle late (continued in Jan & Feb.) x Direct impact on pastoralists/agro pastoralist with for restocking: & breeding, high cattle conception in Hagaa x Amount of rainfall in Deyr ‘97 was RVF infected livestock could be great, but primarily (Sept.-Oct ’06) significantly greater in amount prolong recovery,: o Mild Jilaal, low to no cost for water, fodder migration x Duration, intensity, and extent of floods were o prolong recovery time of livestock herds (loss in (limited need to sell cattle) much greater in 1997 drought) o Normally, sell sheep/goat for cereals, not cattle x Now pastoral areas are already drying up in o Low livestock mortality of infected livestock x Limited impact on local markets and demand for camels and Juba/Gedo (as rains stopped first dekad Dec.), (10%) sheep/goats which reduces the vector of spread o High rates of abortion (80-90%) o Functional livestock markets/demand (Afgoi, Mogadishu, o x Currently very limited migration to/from Abortion Risk Sheep/Goats in Juba/Gedo: Baidoa, Kismayo, and others) Kenya and Somalia, but ‘97 Kenya livestock Expect high kidding in Jan.-March ‘06, due to o Sheep/Goats, generally sold within Southern Somalia (for concentrated in Somalia high conception in Hagaa (Sept.-Oct. ’06) food/& nonfood essentials) o o x Good livestock conditions (from Abortion Risk for Cattle in Juba/Gedo: Expect Terms of Trade (sheep/goat to cereals) is significantly improvements in Gu ’06), as compared to Low calving Jan.-March ’07, due to low improved, and is expected to remain favorable over next few 1997 when livestock conditions very poor (2 conception in Gu’06. High conception in Hagaa months. seasons of drought) (Sept.-Oct., but high calving not until May/June x Resilience of Somali Trade and Markets Proven o x Currently, proactive mitigating actions by ’07) Livestock Ban ’98 & 2000 by Gulf States o Kenya govt. (market & border closure, x Decrease in ability to sell livestock Likely, that trade of Somali cattle through Mombasa will vaccination programs, etc.) x Decrease in productivity (milk, ghee) increase if Kenya NE markets remain closed x High cost veterinary treatment x Stress Ĺ social networks

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 32 Issued March 7, 2007 3.5 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS Figure 15: Sorghum Belt: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate Somalia and Somaliland Exchange Rate 25,000 PETROL 1 Liter

SUGAR 1 Kg 20,000 Both the Somali and Somaliland shilling were stable in VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre most markets (around SoSh 14,000 per dollar and SlSh RED RICE 1 Kg 6,300 per dollar, respectively) for the last six months 15,000 SOMALI SHILLINGS PER (July to December 2006). However, the Somali Shilling appreciated or gained slightly in value against the US 10,000 dollar by 4% (from 14,000 to 13,400 SoSh per dollar) Price per Unit (SOSH) for the period of September to December 2006 in most 5,000 southern markets (Figure 14). Even though the shilling 0

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 appreciated slightly, both currencies are still signiﬁ cantly -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a lower in value as compared to the 2000 pre-livestock ban J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J Month levels (Figure 14).

Imported commodity prices such as sugar, rice, edible oil and petrol, are high in most of main inland markets Figure 16: Juba Valley: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate in southern regions compared to 2003 and have risen 25,000

steadily during this period (Figures 15,16,17,18). PETROL 1 Litre

SUGAR 1 Kg The increase of imported commodity prices in the south- 20,000 VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre

ern regions is attributed to a number of factors, including RED RICE 1 Kg market analysis and trends SOMALI SHILLINGS PER increased fuel prices that raised not only shipping costs 15,000 DOLLAR but also transportation costs, high numbers of ‘taxed’

road blocks, and disruptions to inter regional trade Price per Unit (SOSH) 10,000 ﬂ ows. The price increase is transferred to the consumers through higher commodity prices, which erodes the 5,000 purchasing power, particularly the poor wealth groups. 0

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a Another contributing factor to high commercial import J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J prices is due to joint trading ventures, particularly in the Month larger towns, that behave as monopolies and control trade and prices of the different commodities. For instance, one Figure 17: Central: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices group may only import sugar, while the other imports compared to Exchange Rate 30,000 cement. Hence, there is limited to no outside competition PETROL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 Kg and both become price setters in their respective com- SUGAR 25,000 VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre modities. SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR 20,000 Apart from demand and supply factors, big traders are able to keep the commodity prices high. Although the So- 15,000

10,000

mali Shillings appreciated against the US dollar over the Price per Unit (SLSH) last few months this increase in local currency value were not able to sufﬁ ciently off-set the substantial increase in 5,000 imported commodity prices. Therefore it is expected that 0 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 the prevailing imported commodity prices will continue n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju to maintain higher level in the coming months. Month

Figure 14: Monthly Exchange Rates - SOSH and SLSH Figure 18: Shabelle Valley: Trend in Imported Commodity to USD Prices compared to Exchange Rate 25,000 25,000 9,000 PETROL 1 Litre

8,000 SUGAR 1 Kg 20,000 20,000 7,000 VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 Kg 6,000 SOMALI SHILLINGS PER 15,000 15,000 DOLLAR 5,000

4,000 10,000 10,000 Baidoa - SOSH 3,000 Price per Unit (SOSH)

SOSH per US Dollar Bossaso - SOSH SLSH per US Dollar 5,000 Galkayo - SOSH 2,000 Mogadishu - SOSH Hargesia - SLSH 1,000 5,000

0 0

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 33 Issued March 7, 2007 3.6 NUTRITION OVERVIEW

Nutrition Overview

A summary of the integrated analysis of the nutrition situation across the country indicates signifi cant improvement in the northeast and northwest zones over the last three rainy seasons, though still with localised areas of concern in the most northern eastern areas as illustrated. Although an improvement has been observed in parts of the pastoral and rainfed production livelihoods in the south central zones since the FSAU Post Gu ’06 analysis, the nutrition situation remains of concern. Of greater concern is the critical and very critical nutrition situation currently being reported in riverine areas in Hiran and Juba regions, respectively, possibly attributed to high water borne disease incidence following the severe FSAU Nutrition Analyst measuring MUAC, Bay Region, fl ooding in November and December 2006. Dec 06 The nutrition situation is classifi ed using a range of indicators as follows: Anthropometric - Acute Malnutrition (wasting) and Crude Mortality Rates, from 1nutrition assessments, MUAC from 2rapid assessments, trends in levels of acutely malnourished children from both the nutrition 3sentinel sites and the 4Health Information System (HIS) and trends in 5selective feeding admissions. Non anthropometric indicators such as Dietary Diversity, Meal Frequency, Disease Prevalence, Food Security Situation are also referred to. A minimum of 2 anthropometric indicators are required to make an analysis with the supporting non anthropometric indicators. The specifi c classifi cation matrix is undergoing ongoing review with partners and will be presented in subsequent reports.

The maps below (Maps 14 & 15) illustrate the progression of the nutrition situation over the last six months with the arrows in the current map indicating areas likely to improve, deteriorate or where the progression is uncertain. Where a minimum of two recent anthropometric indicators are not available the area is left white reﬂ ecting no data.

1All nutrition assessments referred to in this update use the standard methodology of 30*30 random cluster sampling. (Source FSAU and NGO) 2 Refers to the random selection of 100 children 1-5yrs per site and the proportion with a MUAC <12.5cm done in collaboration by the FSAU fi eld nutrition team in the Post Deyr assessment December 06. (Source, FSAU) 3 Refers to the trends in the numbers of acutely malnourished 1-5yrs identifi ed from regular screening using WHZ at 105 Health centres across Somalia. (Source: FSAU) 4 Sentinel sites data is collected bimonthly or quarterly from a total of 102 sites across south and central Somalia by FSAU fi eld nutrition staff using WHZ, MUAC and nutrition overview oedema. (Source FSAU) 5 Refers to the trends of admission of severely and moderately malnourished children into TFC/ OTP and SFC (Source: UNICEF or individual NGO, December 06)

Map 14: Nutrition Situation - July 2006 Map 15: Nutrition Situation - January 2007 " " 12°0'0 12°0'0 Alula DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden 12°0'0"N Alula 12°0'0"N DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden

Kandala Kandala Zeylac Bosaso Lughaye Zeylac Bosaso Lughaye BERBERA Badhan Badhan Awdal Iskushuban Erigavo ! Berbera Awdal Iskushuban Borama Baki Sanag Berbera El Afwein Bari Borama Baki Sanag Erigavo El Afwein Bari Woq. Galbeed Sheikh Sheikh Gabiley Woq. Galbeed Hargeisa Gabiley Gardo Hargeisa Bender Beila Gardo Odweine Burco Caynaba Odweine Bender Beila Xudun Taleh Burco Caynaba Xudun Togdheer Togdheer Taleh Sool Sool 9°0'0"N 9°0'0"N 9°0'0"N 9°0'0"N

Buhodle !Lasanod !Garowe Buhodle Lasanod Garowe Nugal ! Eyl Eyl Nugal Burtinle Burtinle

ETHIOPIA Jariban Jariban Goldogob! ETHIOPIA Goldogob ! Galkayo Galkayo

! ! Adado Mudug Adado Mudug Abudwaq Hobyo Abudwaq Hobyo 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Indian Ocean Indian Ocean Dusa! Mareb Dusa Mareb Galgadud Galgadud Belet Weyne !! ! Haradhere Haradhere El Bur El Barde Belet Weyne El Bur El Barde Bakol Bakol Hiran Rab-Dhuure Rab-Dhuure Hudur Hudur El Der Hiran El Der Dolo Dolo Bulo Burti Tieglo Bulo Burti Luuq !Wajid Tieglo Luuq Wajid Aden Yabal Aden Yabal Belet Hawa Belet Hawa Jalalaqsi Jalalaqsi LEGEND Baidoa Adale Garbahare Baidoa Adale LEGEND Garbahare Nutrition Situation Global (Total ) Acute Malnutrition Gedo M. Shabelle Gedo M. Shabelle Qansah Dere Wanle WeyneJowhar Qansah Dere Wanle WeyneJowhar 3°0'0"N 3°0'0"N 3°0'0"N 3°0'0"N <5% (acceptable) No Data El Waq Bay El Waq Bay Bur Hakaba Balad Bur Hakaba Balad 5 - 10% (alert) Alert Afgoye Afgoye Bardera Dinsor Qoryoley Banadir Bardera Dinsor Qoryoley Banadir Mogadishu Mogadishu 10 - 14.9% (serious) L. Shabelle Serious L. Shabelle Sakow Sakow Kurtun Warrey Marka Kurtun Warrey Marka 15 - 19.9% (critical) Critical KENYA M. Juba

KENYA M. Juba Sablale Sablale Buale Buale Over 20% (Very critical) Brava Very Critical Brava Projected Trend (Jan-Jun '07) /" Potential to Improve IDP Concentration Areas National Capital Afmadow Jilib Afmadow Jilib Uncertain Major Road Potential to Deteriorate /" National Capital Jamame L. Juba Jamame Coastline L. Juba Coastline 0°0'0" 0°0'0"

0°0'0" International Boundary 0°0'0" Kismayo International Boundary Kismayo ± Regional Boundary ± Regional Boundary Badhadhe 400408012016020 District Boundary Badhadhe 400408012016020 District Boundary Kilometers Kilometers River River Datum: WGS84 Datum: WGS84 Data Source: FSAU, 2006 Data Source: FSAU, 2006 43°0'0"E 46°0'0"E Admin. layers: UNDP,49°0'0"E 1998 43°0'0"E 46°0'0"E Admin. layers: UNDP, 49°0'0"E 1998 Updated: January , 2007

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 34 Issued March 7, 2007 4. REGIONAL ANALYSIS

4.1 SOUTHERN SOMALIA

4.1.1 Gedo Region

Map 16: Gedo Valley Overview Livelihood Systems. The impact of the Deyr ’06/’07 season on the food security and humanitarian situation has been mixed in Gedo depending on the livelihood system (Map 16). While in general the food security situation in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas is improving there has been deterioration in the situation in the riverine areas of the region due to severe ﬂ ooding following three consecutive seasons of low crop production.

Of greatest concern are 29,000 people in the riverine areas of Gedo region in a state of Humanitarian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, nearly 9% of the total regional population. Of this 27,000 people, representing 100% of the poor

and middle wealth groups, are in Humanitarian Emergency, and their situation LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS continues to deteriorate (Map 17). The nutrition situation is classiﬁ ed as Critical RIVERINE and at further risk of deterioration (Map 15).

In Gedo, one of the regions most severely affected by the drought, the food, livelihood and nutrition situation for both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists has improved

since the Gu ’06 and is expected to continue to improve southern somalia over the next six months. The total number of people in Map 17: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Gedo. crisis, however, is roughly the same as in the Gu ’06, but there is a shift of populations from Humanitarian FSAU Emergency to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. In Phase Classifi cation Gedo, a total of 167,000 agro-pastoralists and pastoralists 1 Generally Food Secure are in crisis, with 81,000 in Humanitarian Emergency 2 Chronically Food Insecure and 86,000 in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (Map 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 17 & 18, Table 15 & 16). The nutrition situation also 4 Humanitarian Emergency 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe shows improvements over the last six months for most Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase rural areas and is downgraded from Very Critical to Watch Moderate Risk Critical (Map 15). High Risk Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs Gedo is further identifi ed with an Early Warning Level Areas with IDP Concentrations NOTES: of Moderate Risk of deterioration in the humanitarian 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban situation depending on: the confi rmation and vector estimates, and are rounded to the nearest 10,000 spread of RVF (see Livestock Section); the duration of the 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org disruption in cattle markets and trade due to the Kenya- Phase Classifi cation Somalia border and Garissa market closure.

Table 15: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Gedo.

Acute Food and Humanitarian Affected Regions and UNDP 2005 Total Total in AFLC or HE as Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE)Error! District Population1 % of Region population (AFLC)2 Bookmark not defined. Gedo Bardera 106,172 30,000 33,000 59 Belet Hawo 55,989 12,000 24,000 64 El Waq 19,996 6,000 3,000 45 Dolow 26,495 6,000 12,000 68 Garbaharey/Burdubo 57,023 14,000 21,000 61 Luuq 62,703 20,000 15,000 56 Sub-Total 328,378 88,000 108,000 60 See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 35 Issued March 7, 2007 Table 16: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Gedo.

Estimated Population of Acute Food and Humanitarian Affected Regions and Livelihood Total in AFLC or HE as Affected Livelihood Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE)Error! Zone % of Zone population Zones1 (AFLC)2 Bookmark not defined. 93,7 9 8,000 0 Gedo Bay-Bakool-Bardera Agro-Past 26,607 13,000 10,000 86 Dawa Pastoral 81,654 21,000 49,000 86 Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 31,236 2,000 27,000 93 Southern Agro-Past 31,751 22,000 8,000 94 Southern Inland Past 75,828 30,000 14,000 58 Sub-Total 247,076 88,000 108,000 79 See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes

Overall Deyr ’06/’07 crop production in Gedo is below normal, 50% of PWA, with riverine maize production near total failure. However sorghum production in rainfed areas, despite some fl ash fl oods, is 91% of PWA. This poor overall harvest is followed by three consecutive seasons of crop failure and cereal stocks are negligible. Livestock body conditions for all species are good and the abundance of pasture and water following the exceptionally good Deyr ‘06/’07 rains means a mild dry Jilaal season and continued improvement in livestock body conditions and productivity. High sheep/goat kidding and lambing is expected from February to May ’07 due to high conception in the Hagaa (Sept. - Oct.’06) and Deyr ‘06/’07 season and high rates of calving are expected in April-May ’07. Livestock prices have increased with improved livestock conditions for all species. Herd sizes, however, have not recovered, as the losses during the drought were signifi cant (cattle 40-60%, sheep/goats 15-50%) and will take several seasons to recover. Due to high livestock prices and low cereal prices, terms of trade between cereal and livestock have improved signifi cantly from the peak drought period, improving food access for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists.

Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: Deyr ‘06/’07 rains were signifi cantly above normal in the region and well distributed throughout the season. Most of the region received cumulative rainfall of 300-400mm, with Dolo and Luuq receiving 200-300 mm and parts of Garbaharrey and Bardere between 400-500 mm. All districts in the region received rainfall 200-300% of the long term mean. Rainfall improved pasture and replenished water catchments. Pasture and browse are signifi cantly above normal and well distributed throughout the region. NDVI for the last dekad of December is signifi cantly above average of long term trends (167% of average, 1966-2005). Consequently livestock migration was considered normal with traditional wet season grazing areas (see Livestock and Climate Sections). southern somalia Physical Capital: In Gedo, fl ooding of the Juba river during the Deyr season led to the displacement of an estimated 21,000 people (or 6% of the total regional population). Of this it is estimated that over 97% have since returned (see Climate Section). Flooding also led to the destruction of nearly 2,700 hectares of maize (1,800 hectares of which were in Bardheere and most of which and 500 hectares in Luuq) and approximately 550 hectares of sesame and 300 hectares of cowpea and a signifi cant area of vegetables and fruits (onion, tomatoes, sweet potatoes, banana and pa- paya), potential cash income for middle and better-off households, though this was not quantifi ed. Flooding also led to further deterioration of riverine infrastructure including river embankments, canals and irrigation infrastructure. This increases the risk of fl ooding in the Gu season. Floods also destroyed household assets including houses and pumps, contaminated water sources including shallow wells, and led to the loss of valuable topsoil from agricultural areas. Transport infrastructure deteriorated further which will impact negatively upon fl ow of food and non-food commodities.

Social Capital: Local social support systems are generally in the form of in-kind transfer of gifts, such as livestock, cereals and milk. Due to the severity of the drought, social support mechanisms are only now strengthening in pastoral areas. However due to consecutive crop losses in the riverine area local support will be limited. In pastoral areas, social support will be expected to improve in line with improvements in pastoral productivity. However, this will remain localised.

Human Capital: The overall nutrition situation in the Southern Inland, South-East Pastoral livelihoods in Gedo and Juba has indicated a slight improvement from most of the nutrition over the past six months possibly associated with the positive impacts of the adequate Gu ’06 rains and other mitigating factors such as increased humanitarian support. Localised areas of deterioration have also been reported with an increase in seasonal morbidity trends. The nutrition situation in these areas is classiﬁ ed as Critical with an uncertain trend for the coming months. The overall nutrition situation in Dawo Pastoral, Juba Pump Irrigation in Gedo over the last 6 months does not indicate any signiﬁ cant change with some indicators indicating improvement, some deterioration where others are unchanged. Therefore the

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 36 Issued March 7, 2007 QXWULWLRQVLWXDWLRQLQWKHVHDUHDVLVFODVVL¿HGDVFULWLFDOZLWKDQXQFHUWDLQWUHQGIRUWKHFRPLQJPRQWKV+RZHYHUWKH nutrition situation in Gedo riverine over the last 6 months has indicated deterioration from an already critical situa- WLRQ7KLVLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVHYHUHÀRRGLQJLQ1RYHPEHUDQG'HFHPEHUZKHUHDQLQFUHDVHLQZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHV LVEHLQJUHSRUWHGLQDGGLWLRQWRVLJQL¿FDQWORVVRIIRRGVWRFNVDQGFURSVSODQWHGTherefore the nutrition situation is FODVVL¿HGDV9HU\&ULWLFDOIn rural areas, education is limited or non existent. Also health facilities are concentrated in urban centres.

Financial Capital: Income sources from crop sales for riverine agriculturalists continue to be constrained severely due to successive crop failures (Gu ’05, Deyr ’05/’06 and Gu ’06). Overall Gu ¶FHUHDOSURGXFWLRQZDVRI 3:$WKRXJKDURXQGRIWKLVKDUYHVWFDPHIURP%DUGHUDGLVWULFWLQWKHVRXWKDQGLQWKHRWKHU¿YHFURSSURGXFLQJ GLVWULFWV /XXT'RORZ%HOHG+DZR*DUERKDUH\DQG%XUGXER FHUHDOSURGXFWLRQIDLOHGZLWKDQHVWLPDWHGDYHUDJH PDL]HDQGVRUJKXPSURGXFWLRQRIDQGRI3:$UHVSHFWLYHO\ VHH)6$83RVW*X$QDO\VLV7HFKQLFDO VHULHV5HSRUW1R9 ,QFRPHRSSRUWXQLWLHVZHUHUHGXFHGIXUWKHUZKHQÀRRGLQJGHVWUR\HGRQIDUPDJULFXOWXUDO HPSOR\PHQWWKRXJKWKHUHZLOOEHVRPHLQFRPHIURPRIIVHDVRQSURGXFWLRQ

&DWWOHKHUGUHFRYHU\LVDQWLFLSDWHGWREHJLQZLWKWKH¿UVWJRRGFDOYLQJLQ$SULO0D\¶EXWIXOOUHFRYHU\ZLOOWDNH VHYHUDOVHDVRQVGXHWRVHYHUHKHUGORVVHVGXULQJWKHGURXJKW HVWLPDWHGDWVHH)6$83RVW*X$QDO\VLV 7HFKQLFDO6HULHV5HSRUW1R9 6OLJKWLQFUHDVHVLQJRDWDQGVKHHSKHUGVZHUHQRWHGGXULQJWKHDeyr season and high NLGGLQJLVH[SHFWHGLQ$SULODQG0D\¶ZLWKPHGLXPFDPHOFDOYLQJH[SHFWHGLQ$SULODQG0D\¶ VHH/LYHVWRFN 6HFWLRQ +RZHYHUWKHLPSDFWVRIWKH.HQ\D6RPDOLDERUGHUDQG*DULVVDOLYHVWRFNPDUNHWFORVXUHVDQGWKHSRWHQWLDO SUHVHQFHRI59)ZLOOQHHGFORVHPRQLWRULQJRYHUWKHFRPLQJPRQWKV VHH&RQÀLFW59)DQG/LYHVWRFNVHFWLRQV

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

,Q*HGRUHJLRQDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVUHO\SULPDULO\RQWKHLURZQSURGXFWLRQRIFHUHDOVWRFRYHUWKHEXONRIWKHLUIRRG southern somalia QHHGV VXSSOHPHQWHGE\IRRGSXUFKDVHV DQGPLONDQGOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWV 8QGHUQRUPDO conditions, most agro-pastoralist rely primarily on livestock and livestock product sales as the main source of income EXWVXSSOHPHQWWKLVLQFRPHZLWKFURSVDOHV DQGUHPLWWDQFHV 7KHSRRUDJURSDVWRUDOLVWV have smaller livestock holdings, and therefore a much smaller share of income (10-20%) derived from livestock and OLYHVWRFNSURGXFWVDOHV7KH\VXSSOHPHQWWKHLULQFRPHZLWKVHOIHPSOR\PHQW FROOHFWLRQDQGVDOHRIEXVKSURGXFWV KRQH\DQGGLNGLNVDOHV DQGHPSOR\PHQW DJULFXOWXUDOODERXUSRUWDJLQJKHUGLQJ VHH)6$8%DVHOLQH3UR¿OHV

3DVWRUDOLVWVLQWKHUHJLRQGHSHQGRQIRRGSXUFKDVHVDVWKHLUPDLQVRXUFHRIIRRG VXSSOHPHQWHGZLWKRZQ production of meat, and milk and other dairy products from their livestock. Most of the income of pastoralists, if QRWDOOIRUWKHPLGGOHDQGEHWWHURIIKRXVHKROGVFRPHVIURPOLYHVWRFNVDOHVIROORZHGE\PLONDQGGDLU\VDOHV3RRU SDVWRUDOLVWVVXSSOHPHQWWKLVLQFRPHZLWKVPDOODPRXQWVRIHPSOR\PHQWLQKHUGLQJRUVDOHVRIEXVKSURGXFWVVXFK as resin.

Food Sources: Agriculturalists and agro-pastoralists in the region are facing acute food access problems due to four seasons of either total or partial crop failure (Gu ’05, Deyr ’05/06, Gu ’06 and Deyr ‘06/’07) (Figure 19 & 20). Although overall Deyrµ¶FURSSURGXFWLRQLVSRRU RI3:$ ZLWKDOPRVWWRWDOIDLlure in riverine areas, VRUJKXPSURGXFWLRQLQDJURSDVWRUDODUHDVLVRI3:$QRWDEO\%DUGHUDGLVWULFWLQVRXWKHUQ*HGR2WKHUDJUR SDVWRUDOVRUJKXPSURGXFLQJGLVWULFWVLQWKHUHJLRQ*DUEDKDUUH\%HOHG+DZRDQG'RORZSURGXFHGDQG RI3:$$OWKRXJKVRPHRIIVHDVRQFURSSURGXFWLRQLVIRUHFDVWEHWZHHQ0DUFKDQG0D\¶ PWRIPDL]H PWRIVHVDPHDQGPWRIFRZSHD IURPUHFHVVLRQSODQWLQJEHWZHHQ'HF¶DQG)HE¶WKHUHLVWKHULVNRI potential GuVHDVRQÀRRGLQJRIODWHSODQWHGVWDQGLQJFURSV SODQWHGLQ)HEUXDU\ 7KHVHRIIVHDVRQFURSVZLOOPDLQO\ EHQH¿WEHWWHURIIKRXVHKROGV+RXVHKROGFHUHDOVWRFNVDUHFRQVHTXHQWO\QHJOLJLEOH

Figure 19: $QQXDO&HUHDO3URGXFWLRQLQ*HGR Figure 20: 'H\U0DL]HDQG6RUJKXP3URGXFWLRQLQ*HGR

30,000 16,000

DEY R 14,000 25,000 GU PWA (1995-2005) Sorghum 12,000 Maize 20,000 10,000 PWA(1995-2005)

15,000

MT 8,000 MT

6,000 10,000

4,000 5,000 2,000

0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Year

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 37 Issued March 7, 2007 Milk (and ghee) availability in agro-pastoral and pastoral areas is considered currently below average due to the implications of previous livestock losses, poor body conditions and low rates of conception during the drought period. However, this situation is expected to improve during the projection period with low calving rates of cattle in February and March and high calving in April and May. Currently, some goat milk is available from kidding during the Deyr season but high kidding is expected in February and March ’07. Low calving of camels is expected in April and June ’07 (see Livestock Section).

In all areas there is increased access to wild foods, including fi sh, mboga (a type of leaf), dhoomaal (a root), and green mango in riverine areas. Improved Pasture and Livestock conditions, Gedo Jan ‘06 Income sources: Although agricultural employment Figure 21: Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: opportunities improved prior to fl oods in both agro- Cereal to Goat pastoral and riverine zones, the destruction of crops due 350.00 to fl ooding has resulted in a further decline in potential Sorghum Belt 300.00 Shabelle Valley

cash income in addition to the loss of income from crop Juba Valley sales. However, employment opportunities are expected 250.00 NorthEast NorthWest

to increase between January and March ’07 with ﬂ ood 200.00 Central recession activities. 150.00

For pastoralists and agro-pastoralists potential livestock 100.00

income has increased signiﬁ cantly since August following 50.00 general and widespread improvements in livestock body 0.00

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 conditions and productivity. In Bardera, average cattle 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ------n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a prices (local quality) increased from August ’06 to Janu- J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J Month ary ’07 by 76% (from SoSh925,000 to SoSh1,625,000) and by 305% from January ’06 to January ’07 (from SoSh400,000). Goat prices (local quality), the main asset traded for cereals, increased from SoSh230,000 in August ’06 to SoSh330,000 (or 43%) in January ’07 and from SoSh120,000 in January ’06 (or 175%). However, income from milk sales is currently below normal due to below average milk availability. This situation is expected to improve in the coming months (see Food Sources). southern somalia Market Purchase: Due to successive seasons of poor cereal production and depleted stocks, agro-pastoral and riverine households are reliant more on market purchase. Despite poor overall regional production, cereals are currently available in the main markets from Bardheere and increasingly from Bay and Bakool regions, where production was 228% and 398% of PWA respectively). As more of this production enters the markets in the coming months cereal prices will decline from their peak drought levels. The presence of food aid in the marketplace will also have a de- ﬂ ationary impact.

In Bardera, the price of sorghum has decreased substantially from January ’06 (SoSh2,333/kg) compared to January ’07 (SoSh916/kg, a decrease of 60%) and a decrease of 64% since the peak level in March ’06 (SoSh2,500/kg). Cereal prices peaked in early 2006 due to overall low cereal supplies following the extremely poor crop performance and supply of the Gu ‘05 and Deyr ‘05/’06 seasons. High livestock prices and low cereal prices have improved purchasing power of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. Average terms of trade between local quality goat and sorghum in the Sorghum Belt have increased from 71.27kg to 228.04kg/goat, an increase of 220% (Figure 21).

In Bardera, terms of trade (local quality goat to sorghum) has increased by 600% (from 51.44kg to 360.16kg) between January ’06 and January ’07, the highest level since February ’03. Although terms of trade for poor households (labour daily wage to cereal) has improved considerably since January ’06 (from 5.14kg to 23.19kg in January ’06) income opportunities TOT declined from Oct. ’06 to Dec. ’06 by 42% as ﬂ ooding disrupted employment and then increased from Dec. ’06 to Jan. ’07 by 63% as ﬂ ood recession activities started. After the off-season harvest TOT for poor households is expected to decline once again even if cereal prices remain stable or decline further as labour opportunities decline until the Gu ’07 season.

Coping Strategies: In Gedo Region coping strategies are still commonly employed to ﬁ ll gaps in food access. Coping strategies among pastoralists include food purchases on credit, sale of livestock, increased seeking of social support from relatives, begging in the streets, petty trading, reducing the number of meals per day as well as reducing meal

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 38 Issued March 7, 2007 portions, split families and migration urban areas in search of employment. Riverine communities adopt different VWUDWHJLHVVXFKDVFRQVXPSWLRQRIJUHHQIUXLWV¿VKLQJDQGLQFRPHIURPGULHG¿VKFURSVKDULQJZLWKEHWWHURII KRXVHKROGVJURZLQJVKRUWF\FOHFURSVFROOHFWLRQRI¿UHZRRGFROOHFWLRQRIIRGGHUDQGPLJUDWLRQWRXUEDQFHQWUHV in search of employment.

Nutrition Situation

6RXWKHUQ,QODQGDQG6RXWK(DVW3DVWRUDOOLYHOLKRRGV 7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV • Nutrition Assessments:$OWKRXJKDQXWULWLRQDVVHVVPHQWZDVSODQQHGLQ'HFHPEHUµWKLVZDVQRWSRV- VLEOHGXHWRLQVHFXULW\DQGVHYHUHÀRRGLQJZKLFKUHVWULFWHGDFFHVV+RZHYHUWKHPRVWUHFHQWUHVXOWVIRU Gedo region indicate 23.8% (21.1-26.7) GAM, 3.7% 6$0 0DUFKDQG%DUGHUDWRZQ19% (15.9-22.6) GAM, 3.9% (2.5-6.0) SAM, April 06 and indicated very critical levels of malnutrition at that WLPHZKLFKZDVGXULQJWKHSHDNRIWKHGURXJKWEHIRUHWKH*X¶UDLQV • Sentinel Sites Data: Four rounds of sentinel site surveillance conducted in the last 12 months have indicated UHGXFWLRQVLQWKHOHYHOVRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQIURPLQ-DQXDU\WRLQ$XJXVWLQ %DUGHUDDQG(OZDN'LVWULFWV • Rapid Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) assessment: A rapid assessmenta (December 2006) in %DUGHUD'LVWULFWUHFRUGHGRIFKLOGUHQ\HDUVZLWK08$& FPIURPDUDQGRPVDPSOHRI children in 3 villages. In Garbaharey District also in December 06, 400 randomly selected children aged \UVIURPYLOODJHVZHUHDOVRVFUHHQHGZLWKRIFKLOGUHQZLWKD08$& FP • Selective Feeding Centres:$OWKRXJKYHU\GLI¿FXOWWRLQWHUSUHWGXHWRWKHLQVHFXULW\LQWHUUXSWLQJSURJUDPPH delivery and recent changes to a community based approach to treating these children, admissions of se- YHUHO\PDOQRXULVKHGUHPDLQKLJKLQFHUWDLQDUHDVLQ*HGR'LVWULFWVDQGZLWKORZHUDGPLVVLRQVLQRWKHUV southern somalia Increasing numbers of humanitarian actors are attempting to address the treatment of moderate malnutrition through supplementary feeding programmes from January 07 in El Wak, Bardera and Garbaharey Districts therefore serving as a potential mitigating factor for nutritional status in the coming months if successful in implementation. • Health Information System:1XPEHUVRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQVFUHHQHGDWKHDOWKFHQWUHOHYHO LQGLFDWHVDQLQFUHDVHIURPLQ6HSWHPEHUWRLQ1RYHPEHUPRVWQRWDEO\LQ%DGKDGKH'LVWULFW 7KLVLVLQOLQHZLWKDUHSRUWHGSDUDOOHOLQFUHDVHLQVHDVRQDOPRUELGLW\SDWWHUQVVXFKDVGLDUUKRHDVXVSHFWHG PDODULDDQGDFXWHUHVSLUDWRU\WUDFWLQIHFWLRQSRVVLEO\H[DFHUEDWHGE\WKHLQFUHDVHGH[SRVXUHWRZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHVGXHWKHKHDY\UDLQVDQGORFDOLVHGÀRRGLQJLQSDUWV

Dawo Pastoral and Juba Pump Irrigation 7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV • Nutrition Assessments:$VEHIRUHWKHPRVWUHFHQWDVVHVVPHQWFRQGXFWHGLQWKHVHDUHDVZDVWKH*HGR5H- gional assessment conducted in March reporting 23.8% (21.1-26.7) GAM, 3.7% SAM (2.6-5.2). 7KLVZDV RQHDVVHVVPHQWZKHUHDVDPSOHZDVGUDZQIURPWKHHQWLUHUHJLRQVRFDQQRWEHH[WUDSRODWHGWRWKHVSHFL¿F OLYHOLKRRGV]RQHVWKRXJKLVXVHIXODVDVRXUFHRIGDWD$JDLQGXHWRLQVHFXULW\SODQVWRFRQGXFWPRUHUHFHQW DVVHVVPHQWVZHUHQRWSRVVLEOH • Sentinel Site Data: Trends in levels of acutely malnourished children from the sentinel sites in these areas LQGLFDWHVDVOLJKWGHWHULRUDWLRQZLWKDQLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGVLQOHYHOVLQWKHODVWWKUHHURXQGVIURP$XJXVW6HS- WHPEHUDQG1RYHPEHUWKHOHYHOVKRZHYHUUHPDLQORZHUWKDQWKLVWLPHODVW\HDU • Rapid MUAC assessment: A rapid assessment (December 2006) in Luuq District recorded 11.5% of FKLOGUHQ\HDUVZLWK08$& FPIURPDUDQGRPVDPSOHRIFKLOGUHQLQYLOODJHV,Q'ROR 'LVWULFWDOVRLQ'HFHPEHUUDQGRPO\VHOHFWHGFKLOGUHQ\UVIURPYLOODJHVZHUHDOVRVFUHHQHG ZLWKRIFKLOGUHQZLWKD08$& FP • Selective Feeding Centres: Admissions of severely malnourished children in Luuq and Dolo and Belet +DZDYDU\DJDLQGHSHQGLQJRQDFFHVVDQGDOVRRQWKHFRYHUDJHRIWKHIHHGLQJFHQWUHV,QJHQHUDOKRZHYHU WKHDGPLVVLRQVVWLOOLQGLFDWHVLJQL¿FDQWQXPEHUVRIVHYHUHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQEHLQJLGHQWL¿HG • Health Information System: Levels of acutely malnourished children screened at health centres have VKRZQDVOLJKWUHGXFWLRQLQWKHSDVWPRQWKVDJDLQLQVHFXULW\DQGDFFHVVLVVXHVQHHGWREHFRQVLGHUHG ZKLOHLQWHUSUHWLQJWKHVH¿JXUHV

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 39 Issued March 7, 2007 4.1.2 Lower and Middle Juba

Overview

The impact of the 2006/’07 Deyr season on the food, nutrition and livelihood security Map 18: Juba Valley Livelihood situation in Middle and Lower Juba regions has been mixed depending on the liveli- Systems hood system: pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine (Map 18). In the Juba Valley a total of 280,000 people are identifi ed in a state of Humanitarian Emergency or Acute JUBA VALLEY Food and Livelihood Crisis and are in need of humanitarian assistance and livelihood support. Of these 110,000 people are in a state of Humanitarian Emergency, while another 170,000 people are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (Table 17 & 18). This is a reduction in the total number requiring some form of assistance from Gu 2006 when a total of 297,000 people were identifi ed in a state of Humanitarian Emergency of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. Although the total number of people in crisis is roughly the same as in the Gu ’06, an improvement in the situation is refl ected in a general shift from Humanitarian Emergency to Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis from 210,000 in Humanitarian Emergency and 87,000 in Acute LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS Food and Livelihood Crisis during the projection period July to December ’06 to RIVERINE the Deyr projection (January to June ’07) of 108,000 in Humanitarian Emergency and 163,000 in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.

The humanitarian situation of the riverine populations Map 19: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Juba in Juba Valley is critical and deteriorating due to the compounding impacts of the previous drought and severe FSAU fl ooding this season leading to total maize crop failure Phase Classifi cation though some off-season production is expected from 1 Generally Food Secure March ’07 onwards. Of the riverine population in the 2 Chronically Food Insecure Juba Valley 106,000 people are in a state of Humani- 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis tarian Emergency and 12,000 are in a state of Acute 4 Humanitarian Emergency Food and Livelihood Crisis. Of these, in Middle Juba 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase 66,000 people are in Humanitarian Emergency and 5,000 Watch in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and in Lower Juba Moderate Risk High Risk 40,000 people are in a state of Humanitarian Emergency Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs and 7,000 are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. The Areas with IDP Concentrations

nutrition situation is Critical and at further risk of dete- NOTES: southern somalia 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban rioration (Map 15 and Nutrition Section). Severe ﬂ ooding estimates, and are this season compounds an already serious humanitarian rounded to the nearest 10,000 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org situation following four consecutive seasons of low crop Phase Classiﬁ cation production and a socially marginalized population with limited access to social support or remittances from other areas inside or outside the country.

In general in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas the food, livelihood and nutrition situation for both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists has improved since the Gu ’06 and is expected to continue to improve over the next six months. Pastoral recovery continues due to the good rainfall of Gu ‘06 and the exceptionally good rainfall of Deyr ‘06/’07.

Table 17: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Juba .

Acute Food and Humanitarian Affected Regions and UNDP 2005 Total Total in AFLC or HE as 1 Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE)Error! District Population 2 % of Region population , (AFLC), Bookmark ,not defined. Middle Juba Buale 59,489 19,000 21,000 67 Jilib 113,415 30,000 30,000 53 Sakow/Salagle 65,973 28,000 15,000 65 Sub-Total 238,877 77,000 66,000 60 Lower Juba Afmadow/Hagar 51,334 28,000 2,000 58 Badhadhe 38,640 10,000 0 26 Jamame 129,149 26,000 40,000 51 Kismayo 166,667 22,000 0 13 See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 40 Issued March 7, 2007 Table 18: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Juba.

Estimated Population of Acute Food and Humanitarian Affected Regions and Livelihood Total in AFLC or HE as Affected Livelihood Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE)Error! Zone % of Zone population Zones1 (AFLC)2 Bookmark not defined. , Sub-Total 260,698 9,000 11,000 8 Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 1,000 15,000 92 Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 8,000 0 91 South-East Pastoral 18,232 16,000 0 88 Southern Agro-Past 46,816 42,000 0 90 Southern Inland Past 22,725 6,000 0 26 Southern Juba Riv 59,304 4,000 51,000 93 Sub-Total 184,138 77,000 66,000 78 Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 41,000 0 58 South-East Pastoral 38,810 15,000 2,000 44 Southern Agro-Past 11,637 10,000 0 86 Southern Inland Past 50,119 13,000 0 26 Southern Juba Riv 57,005 7,000 40,000 82 Sub-Total 261,108 86,000 42,000 49 See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes

Generally Deyr ‘06/’07 rains started on time (mid-October) and ended in late December. Rainfall performance in

terms of coverage, duration and intensity was well above average. This had improved the pasture and browsing and southern somalia fully replenished all water catchments in the regions. However, there was abnormal migration of pastoralists away from the Kenya-Somalia border due to fear of confl ict. Following a general increase in livestock prices and a decrease in cereal prices terms of trade for pastoralists have improved, improving food accessibility. This trend is likely to continue in the coming months. In December TOT for goat/cereal and cattle/cereal were at their highest levels since 2003. However, the impacts of the Kenya-Somalia border and Garissa livestock market closures and the potential presence of RVF will need close monitoring over the coming months. FSAU identifi es areas of the Juba with an Early Warning Level of Moderate Risk (Map 19) of deterioration in the humanitarian situation depending on: the confi rmation and vector spread of RVF; duration of the disruption in cattle markets and trade; and, deterioration in security conditions

In general, sorghum production in the rainfed agro-pastoral areas of Buale and Sakow (Middle Juba) is signifi cantly above normal at 173% and 282% PWA respectively and from Kismayo district where rainfed maize production was 392% of PWA. This has improved income and household stocks in these areas. However, fl ash fl oods in some agro-pastoral crop areas (in Afmadow, Hagar and Badaade) resulted in a decline in potential cash income from crop sales.

Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: Overall, Deyr ‘06/’07 rainfall was above normal in terms of coverage, duration and intensity throughout the region. Much of Middle and Lower Juba received cumulative rainfall from 200 to greater than 300% of the long term average with some areas (in Afmadow district, for example) receiving between 600 and 700mm of rainfall between October and December ’06 (see Climate Section). Consequently, rangeland has regenerated fully and pasture and browsing are well distributed throughout the two regions and is enough to support livestock during an expected mild Jilaal period (January – March ‘07). Similarly, water is abundant though communal water catchments are expected to dry up in mid February ’07. Consequently, livestock migration patterns are considered generally normal for the season, apart from conﬂ ict induced migration away from the Kenya-Somalia border area (see Civil Insecurity and Livestock sections; pages 19-21 & 27-32). Furthermore, an increase in the number of private enclosures in areas surrounding the main towns has affected severely the accessibility of pasture for domestic cattle, sheep and goats which are compelled to either travel longer distances (in some instances 7km or more) for browsing or to purchase fodder.

Charcoal burning poses a threat to indigenous forests in Badhaade and south Kismayo districts and exports have been reported from the natural sea ports of Kiamboni, Burgabo and Kuda. In the hinterland and riverine areas charcoal production was restricted or stopped by the Deyr rains as ﬂ ooding made roads impassable for transporting charcoal to the main towns and to Kismayo port.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 41 Issued March 7, 2007 -DPDPH7DUPDF5RDGZDVKHGRXWE\5LYHU)ORRG $UDUHYLOODJHWKHZRUVWKLWE\5LYHU)ORRGV

Physical Capital: Flooding of the Juba river in September and October led to the displacement of an estimated 60,000 SHRSOH RURIWKHWRWDOUHJLRQDOSRSXODWLRQ IURP0LGGOH-XEDDQGSHRSOH RU IURP/RZHU-XEDUHVSHFWLYHO\ ,WLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWRYHUKDYHUHWXUQHGWR0LGGOH-XEDDQGWR/RZHU-XED)ORRGLQJDOVROHGWRWKHGHVWUXFWLRQ RIDQHVWLPDWHGKHFWDUHVRIPDL]HLQ0LGGOH-XEDDQGKHFWDUHVRIPDL]HLQ/RZHU-XEDDQGDSSUR[LPDWHO\ KHFWDUHVRIVHVDPHDQGKHFWDUHVRIFRZSHDZHUHDOVRÀRRGHG)ORRGLQJDOVROHGWRIXUWKHUGHWHULRUDWLRQRI ULYHULQHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQFOXGLQJULYHUHPEDQNPHQWVDQGFDQDOV7KLVLQFUHDVHVWKHULVNRIÀRRGLQJLQWKHGu season. Floods DOVRGHVWUR\HGXQGHUJURXQGJUDQDULHVGHPROLVKHGPDQ\KRXVHVDQGODWULQHVDQGFRQWDPLQDWHGZDWHUVRXUFHVLQFOXGLQJ VKDOORZZHOOVDQGOHGWRWKHORVVRIKXPXVDQGIHUWLOHWRSVRLOIURPULYHULQHIDUPVDQGKDVLQFUHDVHGVDOLQLW\LQdhesheks ÀRRGUHFHVVLRQDUHDV DQGLagdhera VHDVRQDOULYHUEHWZHHQ.HQ\DWRWKH-XEDULYHULQ-DPDDPHGLVWULFW

Most of the roads in the region are earth roads except for the tarmac road that links Kismayo to Mogadishu, and passing through Jilib and Jamame. Deyrµ¶VHDVRQÀRRGLQJKDVIXUWKHUFRPSRXQGHGSRRUWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUH SULPDU\ and secondary roads and bridges) arising from a lack of maintenance, the use of these roads by heavy commercial JRRGVYHKLFOHVDQGVHDVRQDOÀRRGLQJRYHUWKHSUHYLRXVGHFDGH)ORRGLQJGXULQJWKHDeyr ‘06/’07 season damaged the tarmac road and secondary bridges to such an extent that the transportation of commercial commodities to Kismayo ZDVUHVWULFWHGVHYHUHO\DQGRQZDUGVWRWKHUHVWRIWKHUHJLRQ&RQVHTXHQWO\WKHVXSSO\RIIRRGFRPPRGLWLHVGHFUHDVHG LQDOOPDUNHWVDQGVRPHLWHPVZHUHGHSOHWHG LQFOXGLQJVXJDUYHJHWDEOHRLODQGIXHO LQWKHKLQWHUODQGPDUNHWVRI %DGKDDGH$IPDGRZ%XDOH+DJDUDQG6DNRZOHDGLQJWRSULFHLQFUHDVHVEHWZHHQ2FWREHU±'HFHPEHU¶ VHHDOVR )6$84XDUWHUO\%ULHI'HFHPEHU 3RRUURDGDFFHVVDOVRUHVWULFWHGWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIKXPDQLWDULDQVXSSOLHV including food aid. southern somalia Social Capital: In riverine areas, the impacts of the DeyrVHDVRQÀRRGLQJKDYHFRPSRXQGHGDOUHDG\ZHDNHQHGVRFLDO VXSSRUWPHFKDQLVPVGXHWRDFRPELQDWLRQRIOLPLWHGORFDODQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOVRFLDOQHWZRUNVVRFLDOPDUJLQDOLVDWLRQ and successive seasons of poor production. It is reported that existing social support mechanisms are overstretched GXHWRWKHVKDULQJRIDYDLODEOHIRRGVHHGV¿VKLQJLWHPVDQGPRQH\DQGWKHUHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIKRPHVGHVWUR\HGE\ WKHÀRRGLQJZakaatZDVQRWDYDLODEOHGXHWRULYHULQHSURGXFWLRQIDLOXUHWKLVVHDVRQ,QWKHSDVWRUDODQGDJURSDVWRUDO DUHDVNLQVKLSVXSSRUWKDVLPSURYHGVOLJKWO\GXHWRWKHZLGHVSUHDGLPSURYHPHQWVLQOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLYLW\+RZHYHULQ general livestock ZakaatLVVWLOOFRQVLGHUHGEHORZQRUPDODVKROGLQJVKDYHQRWUHFRYHUHGIXOO\EXWWKHYDOXHRIZakaat IURPODUJHDQLPDOV FDWWOHDQGFDPHO KDVLQFUHDVHGLQOLQHZLWKLQFUHDVHVLQOLYHVWRFNSULFHV,QWKHUDLQIHGVRUJKXP areas the Southern Agro-pastoral had strengthened their social support due to harvesting the highest sorghum production ever recorded.

Human Capital: Child attendance DWULYHULQHVHFXODUDQG.RUDQLFVFKRROVZDVLQWHUUXSWHGE\ÀRRGLQJDQGWKHQE\WKH need to strengthen the labour pool for off-season agricultural activities. For example, in the Koranic school in Rahole LQ%XDOHGLVWULFWDWWHQGDQFHIRU$XJXVW ¶ ZDVFKLOGUHQ ER\VDQGJLUOV 7KLVGURSSHGWRLQ1RYHPEHU¶ 6FKRROVLQ.LVPDD\RWRZQPDLQWDLQHGQRUPDODWWHQGDQFH

The overall nutrition situation in the Southern Inland and South-East Pastoral livelihoods in Juba has indicated a VOLJKWLPSURYHPHQWRYHUWKHSDVWVL[PRQWKVSRVVLEO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSRVLWLYHLPSDFWVRIWKHDGHTXDWHGu ’06 rains DQGRWKHUPLWLJDWLQJIDFWRUVVXFKDVLQFUHDVHGKXPDQLWDULDQVXSSRUW+RZHYHUORFDOLVHGDUHDVRIGHWHULRUDWLRQKDYHDOVR EHHQUHSRUWHGZLWKDQLQFUHDVHLQVHDVRQDOPRUELGLW\WUHQGV,QDGGLWLRQRQJRLQJULVNRIFRQÀLFWDQGGLVHDVHLQORZHU -XEDDUHRIFRQFHUQ7KHUHIRUHWKHQXWULWLRQVLWXDWLRQLQWKHVHDUHDVLVFODVVL¿HGDVFULWLFDOZLWKDQXQFHUWDLQWUHQGIRU the coming months. The overall nutrition situation in Juba Riverine over the last 6 months indicates deterioration from DQDOUHDG\FULWLFDOWRYHU\FULWLFDOVLWXDWLRQ7KLVLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVHYHUHÀRRGLQJLQ1RYHPEHUDQG'HFHPEHUZKHUH DQLQFUHDVHLQZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHVLVEHLQJUHSRUWHGLQDGGLWLRQWRVLJQL¿FDQWORVVRIIRRGVWRFNVDQGFURSVSODQWHG IRU PRUHGHWDLOVVHHWKH1XWULWLRQVHFWLRQDQGWKH)6$81XWULWLRQ8SGDWH-DQXDU\¶

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 42 Issued March 7, 2007 Financial Capital: 7KHUHDUHQRORFDOFHUHDOVWRFNVGXHWRIRXUFRQVHFXWLYHVHDVRQVRIFURSIDLOXUHIRU/RZHU-XED DQGWKUHHFRQVHFXWLYHVHDVRQVRIFURSIDLOXUHIRU0LGGOH-XED *X¶DQG'H\Uµ¶DQG'H\U µ¶DQGRI3:$UHVSHFWLYHO\IRU/RZHUDQG0LGGOH-XED 7KLVKDVUHGXFHGSRWHQWLDOLQFRPHIURP FURSVDOHV,QFRPHRSSRUWXQLWLHVZHUHUHGXFHGIXUWKHUZKHQÀRRGLQJUHGXFHGGUDPDWLFDOO\WKHDYDLODELOLW\RIRQIDUP DJULFXOWXUDOHPSOR\PHQWDVFURSVZHUHGHVWUR\HGWKRXJKLWLVH[SHFWHGWKDWWKLVVLWXDWLRQZLOOLPSURYHZLWKRQJR- ing off-season opportunities and preparations for the Gu season (mid April – mid June). The level of indebtedness, WKHUHIRUHUHPDLQVKLJKIRUWKHWKLUGVHDVRQDQGLVLQFUHDVLQJ VHH)6$83RVW*X$QDO\VLV7HFKQLFDO6HULHV 5HSRUW1R9 ,QSDVWRUDODUHDVOLYHVWRFNERG\FRQGLWLRQDQGPDUNHWSULFHVKDYHLPSURYHGVLJQL¿FDQWO\)RUH[DPSOHDYHUDJHLQ- come from the sale of goats (local quality) in the Juba valley, used to trade for staple food and non-staple goods, has LQFUHDVHGIURP6R6KLQ-DQXDU\¶WR6R6KKHDGLQ-DQXDU\¶ DQLQFUHDVHRI &DWWOHKHUG UHFRYHU\LVDQWLFLSDWHGWREHJLQZLWKWKH¿UVWJRRGFDOYLQJLQ$SULO0DUFK¶EXWIXOOUHFRYHU\IRU6RXWKHUQ,QODQG 3DVWRUDODQG6RXWKHDVW3DVWRUDOOLYHOLKRRGVZLOOWDNHVHYHUDOVHDVRQVGXHWRVHYHUHKHUGORVVHVGXULQJWKHGURXJKW HVWLPDWHGDWVHH)6$83RVW*X$QDO\VLV7HFKQLFDO6HULHV5HSRUW1R9 ,QFUHDVHVLQJRDWDQG VKHHSKHUGVDUHH[SHFWHGLQ)HEUXDU\WR0DUFK¶IROORZLQJKLJKFRQFHSWLRQLQ-XO\WR6HSWHPEHU¶+RZHYHU the impacts of the Kenya-Somalia border and Garissa livestock market closures and the potential presence of RVF ZLOOQHHGFORVHPRQLWRULQJRYHUWKHFRPLQJPRQWKV VHH&RQÀLFW59)DQG/LYHVWRFNVHFWLRQV

Figure 22: Deyr Cereal Production in Juba Regions Figure 23: Annual Cereal Production in Juba Regions

12,000 45,000

40,000 10,000 Sorghum Deyr Maize 35,000 Gu 8,000 PWA (1995-2005) PWA (1995-2005) 30,000 southern somalia

25,000 6,000 MT MT 20,000 4,000 15,000

10,000 2,000

5,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Year

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

7KUHHPDLQOLYHOLKRRGVV\VWHPVLQ-XED9DOOH\DUHSDVWRUDOLVWV FDWWOHZLWKVKHHSJRDWVDQGFDPHOZLWKVKHHSJRDWV DJURSDVWRUDOLVWV FDWWOHRUFDPHOSOXVUDLQIHGPDL]HRUVRUJKXP DQGULYHULQH PDL]HDQGFDVKFURSIDUPHUV ,QD QRUPDO\HDUWKHPDLQIRRGVRXUFHVIRUULYHULQHDJULFXOWXUDOLVWVDQGDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVDUHRZQFURSSURGXFWLRQ IROORZHGE\PDUNHWSXUFKDVH ZLWKJLIWVDQGWUDQVIHUV3DVWRUDOLVWVSULPDULO\GHSHQGRQPDUNHWSXUFKDVHDQG WKHLURZQOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLRQZKLFKDFFRXQWVIRUDQGRIWKHLUDQQXDOIRRGUHTXLUHPHQWVUHVSHFWLYHO\ 0RVWRIWKHLQFRPHIRUULYHULQHIDUPHUVLQDQRUPDO\HDUFRPHVIURPVHOIHPSOR\PHQWDQGHPSOR\PHQW8QOLNH WKHULYHULQHDJULFXOWXUDOLVW¶VOLYHOLKRRGDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVKDYHUHODWLYHO\GLYHUVL¿HGLQFRPHVRXUFHVDQGRI SRRUKRXVHKROG¶VDQQXDOLQFRPHLVGHULYHGIURPHPSOR\PHQWVHOIHPSOR\PHQWDFWLYLWLHVZKLOHFRPHVIURP OLYHVWRFNDQGOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWVDOHV&DPHODQGFDWWOHSDVWRUDOLVWVLUUHVSHFWLYHRIWKHLUZHDOWKHDUQRIWKHLU annual income from livestock and livestock product sales supplemented by petty trade and/or employment.

Food Sources: 5LYHUÀRRGVQHJDWLYHO\DIIHFWHGDeyrFURSSURGXFWLRQLQULYHULQHOLYHOLKRRG]RQHVDQGÀDVKÀRRGVLQ VRPHDJURSDVWRUDOFURSDUHDV LQ$IPDGRZ+DJDUDQG%DGDDGH resulted in the destruction of rainfed crops. Riverine PDL]HSURGXFWLRQZDVWRWDOO\GHVWUR\HG RI3:$ DQGWKHUHDUHQRFXUUHQWFHUHDOVWRFNVDWWKHKRXVHKROGOHYHOIRU riverine and Agro-pastoral LZs, except in the agro-pastoral areas of Kismayo district. Combined total off-season crop SURGXFWLRQIRU0LGGOHDQG/RZHU-XEDLVHVWLPDWHGWREHPWRIPDL]HPWRIVHVDPHDQGPWRIFRZSHD 7KHH[SHFWHGPDL]HRIIVHDVRQKDUYHVWZLOOEHEHWZHHQ0DUFKDQG0D\¶ SODQWHGLQ'HF¶-DQDQG)HE¶ KRZHYHUSRWHQWLDOÀRRGLQJLQODWH$SULORU0D\FRXOGGHVWUR\VWDQGLQJFURSV WKRVHSODQWHGLQODWH)HEUXDU\ )6$8 ZLOOPRQLWRUFORVHO\RIIVHDVRQFURSSHUIRUPDQFHDQGDQDVVHVVPHQWRIRIIVHDVRQSURGXFWLRQZLOOEHGRQHLQ$SULO Although riverine production failed completely rainfed crop production in agro-pastoral areas has done much better and overall regional estimates mask a more positive outlook in rainfed areas. Sorghum production in the agro-pas- WRUDODUHDVRI%XDOHDQG6DNRZ 0LGGOH-XED LVVLJQL¿FDQWO\DERYHQRUPDODWDQG3:$UHVSHFWLYHO\ (YHQWKRXJKULYHULQHSURGXFWLRQIDLOHGWKLVUHSUHVHQWVDQHVWLPDWHGWRWDOUHJLRQDOFURSSURGXFWLRQRIRI3:$ 0W (YHQZLWKFRPSOHWHORVVRIWKHULYHULQHPDL]HFURSWRWDOSURGXFWLRQLQ/RZHU-XEDLVRI3:$ZLWK WKHEXONRIWKLVSURGXFWLRQIURP.LVPD\RGLVWULFWZKHUHUDLQIHGPDL]HSURGXFWLRQZDVRI3:$0LON DQG JKHH DYDLODELOLW\LQDJURSDVWRUDODQGSDVWRUDODUHDVLVFRQVLGHUHGFXUUHQWO\EHORZDYHUDJHGXHWROLYHVWRFNORVVHV

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 43 Issued March 7, 2007 poor body conditions and low rates of conception during Figure 24: Regional Trend Local Quality Cattle the drought period. However, this situation is expected to Prices (US$) improve during the projection period with medium rates 250 of camel calving expected in April and May, high calving Sorghum Belt Shabelle Valley 200 Juba Valley NorthEast

rates of cattle are expected during the same period and ) NorthWest Central high rates of kidding and lambing are expected in Febru- 150 ary and March. This will also provide an additional source of income. 100 Price per Head of Cattle (US$

Income Sources: The destruction of riverine crops and 50 ﬂ ash ﬂ oods in some agro-pastoral crop areas (in Afmadow,

Hagar and Badaade) has resulted in a decline in potential 0

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n cash income from crop sales for riverine and Juba agro- Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja pastoralists with the exception of agro-pastoralists in Month Kismayo district. This is in addition to the loss of income Figure 25: Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (US$) from seasonal labour opportunities associated with the Deyr 0.60 Juba Valley (Maize White) Shabelle Valley (Maize White) season (weeding and harvesting). Riverine poor households NorthWest (Imported Rice) NorthEast (Imported Rice) will gain cash income from off-season crop labour (pri- 0.50 Sorghum Belt (Sorghum Red) Central (Imported Rice) marily from cash crops of sesame, tomatoes, watermelon 0.40 and pumpkins and some subsistence crops of maize) and,

if production is successful, this will provide income for 0.30 middle and better-off households during the harvesting Price per Kg (US$) period from March/April onwards. The good harvest in the 0.20 agro-pastoral areas will boost income of Southern Agro- 0.10 pastoralists for the ﬁ rst time since Deyr ‘04/’05.

0.00

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 0 -0 -0 0 -0 -0 -0 n l-9 n l-9 n l-0 n l-0 n l- n l-0 n l- n l-0 n l-0 n Livestock prices have increased signiﬁ cantly over the Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja last six months, following the improvement in livestock Month body conditions and productivity. In the Juba valley aver- Figure 26: Regional Average Monthly Terms of Trade : age cattle prices (local quality) increased 115% between Cereal to Goat January ’07 (from SoSh639,200 to SoSh1,376,875/head) 300 Sorghum Belt Shabelle Valley and since they collapsed in January ’06. During the same 250 Juba Valley period goat prices (local quality) have increased by 231%, NorthEast and for camels (local quality) 87% (from SoSh1,792,000 200 NorthWest Central to SoSh3,347,750/head). In December ’06 cattle prices in 150 southern somalia the Juba valley reached their highest level for more than

six years (US$120.43 or SoSh1,533,125/head) (Figure 100 24). However, although cattle prices are exceptionally Kg Sorghum per Goat (Local Quality) high pastoralists are retaining them to rebuild herds and 50

asset levels. 0

5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 - - r- - - - l- - -0 - - -0 - c n b r y n u g p t v c n e a e a p a u J u e c o e a D J F M A M J A S O N D J Market Purchase: Riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods Month (with the exception of agro-pastoralists in Kismayo district) are relying currently on cereal market purchase, due to depleted stocks and yet another crop failure. Pastoralists rely normally on cereal purchase as they sell livestock and camel milk in exchange for food. All livelihoods are now reliant on cereal purchase except for Southern Agro-pastoralists in Buale and Sakow (see Food Sources) who are able to maintain the 65-70% of their food needs from own crop production. Average maize prices in the Juba valley declined by 67% between Jan. ‘06 and Jan. ’07 (from SoSh3,935 to SoSh1,303/kg) and are now at their lowest level for three years and have declined from the peak price during the drought (declined 65% from June ’06) (Figure 25) However, the recent decline in prices is thought to be not the impact of Deyr season production but rather an injection of food aid in the region during June, July, August, December ‘06 and Jan. ‘07. Nevertheless, prices are not expected to increase dramatically over the coming four months due to the input of projected off-season maize production (3,124MT of maize). This will provide some improvement in local availability, improve market prices, and lessen the importance of relief assistance. Following a general increase in livestock prices and a decrease in cereal prices terms of trade for pastoralists have improved, improving food accessibility. This trend is likely to continue in the coming months. TOT (goat/cereal) increased 55% from July to December ’06 and increased 557% since December ’05. TOT (cattle/cereal) increased 33% from June ‘06 to December ’06 and increased 866% since Dec. ’05. In December TOT for goat/cereal and cattle/cereal were at their highest levels since 2003 (Figure 26).

In the Juba valley average prices for all imported commodities (except for wheat ﬂ our) increased between Jan. ‘06 and Jan. ‘07: rice and vegetable oil increased by 3% and 9% respectively, sugar and petrol increased by 11.5% and 26% respectively, while wheat ﬂ our declined by 20%. Prices remain high due to: excessive Deyr ‘06/’07 rains that

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 44 Issued March 7, 2007 restricted the transportation of commodities; an increase Figure 27: Levels of Acutely Malnourished Children in road blocks leading to increased transport charges; high IURP6HQWLQHO6LWHVLQ-XED9DOOH\$JUR fuel and spare part prices; and, poor road infrastructure pastoral and Riverine Livelihoods

that increases the time and cost of transportation. 70%

60% Coping Strategies: The main coping strategies currently HPSOR\HGLQWKH-XED9DOOH\LQFOXGHLQFUHDVHG¿VKLQJLQ 50% WKHULYHUDQGGKHVKHNVDEQRUPDOGLVSODFHPHQWDZD\IURP 40% WKHFRQÀLFWDUHDVLQ/RZHU-XED VHH&RQÀLFW6HFWLRQ 30%

LQFUHDVHGZLOGIRRGFRQVXPSWLRQFRQVXPSWLRQRIJUHHQ 20% mangoes, utilisation of food aid and the adoption of goat 10% milk for consumption. 0% Jan06 Jan06 Jan06 Jan06 Jan06 Jan06 Jan06 Jan06 Jan06 Dec06 Aug06 Dec06 Aug06 Dec06 Aug06 Dec06 Aug06 Dec06 Dec06 Aug06 Dec06 Aug06 Dec06 Aug06 Dec06 Dec05 Aug06

Nutrition Situation Helishid Bilisa Malende BuloTaaq Mubarak Marere Buulo Bandar 1\LUH\ 4DODZLOH Mamo Jardid 6RXWKHUQ,QODQGDQG6RXWK(DVW3DVWRUDO Riverine Agropast livelihoods 7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV

• Nutrition Assessments:$OWKRXJKDQXWULWLRQDVVHVVPHQWZDVSODQQHGIRU'HFHPEHUWKLVZDVQRWSRVVLEOH GXHWRLQVHFXULW\DQGVHYHUHÀRRGLQJZKLFKUHVWULFWHGDFFHVVKRZHYHUWKHPRVWUHFHQWDVVHVVPHQWVZHUH FRQGXFWHGLQ$IPDGRZDQG+DJDDUZLWK22.0% (19.4-24.9) Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) WHZ, 4.2% 6HYHUH$FXWH0DOQXWULWLRQ(SAM) WHZ, April 06. • Sentinel Site Data,QWKHDJURSDVWRUDOSRSXODWLRQLQSDUWVRIORZHU-XED -LOLE-DPDPH'LVWULFWV DGHFOLQH IURPLQ$XJXVWWRLQ'HFHPEHUZDVUHSRUWHG'LHWDU\GLYHUVLW\KDVDOVRLPSURYHGZLWK southern somalia 93% consuming more than three food groups in August 06 up from 40% in June 2006, mainly sourced from relief food. • Health Information System:1XPEHUVRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQVFUHHQHGDWKHDOWKFHQWUHOHYHO LQGLFDWHVDQLQFUHDVHIURPLQ6HSWHPEHUWRLQ1RYHPEHUPRVWQRWDEO\LQ%DGKDGKH'LVWULFW 7KLVLVLQOLQHZLWKDUHSRUWHGSDUDOOHOLQFUHDVHLQVHDVRQDOPRUELGLW\SDWWHUQVVXFKDVGLDUUKRHDVXVSHFWHG PDODULDDQGDFXWHUHVSLUDWRU\WUDFWLQIHFWLRQSRVVLEO\H[DFHUEDWHGE\WKHLQFUHDVHGH[SRVXUHWRZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHVGXHWKHKHDY\UDLQVDQGORFDOLVHGÀRRGLQJLQSDUWV

Juba Riverine 7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV

• Nutrition Assessments:7KHPRVWUHFHQWDVVHVVPHQWVFRQGXFWHGLQWKLVOLYHOLKRRGZHUHLQ-LOLEULYHULQH FRPPXQLW\LQ0D\ZKHUH16.2% GAM and 4.4% (3.2-6.0) 6$0ZHUHUHSRUWHGDQGLQ%XDOH DQG6DNRZGLVWULFWVLQ0DUFKZKHUH21.9% GAM and 6.6% 6$0ZHUHUHSRUWHG • Sentinel Site Data: Trends in levels of acutely malnourished children from the sentinel sites in these areas had indicated an improvement earlier in 2006 (Jan to August) but from August 06 to December 06 deterioration in the levels of acutely malnourished children has been reported in several sites. (see graph) • Selective Feeding Centres:8SWRGDWHLQIRUPDWLRQLVODFNLQJRQWKHWUHQGVRIDGPLVVLRQVRIVHYHUHO\ PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQLQ/RZHU-XEDULYHULQHDUHDEXWLQIRUPDWLRQIURP0LGGOH-XEDLQ%XDOHDQG6DNRZ KDVLQGLFDWHGVLJQL¿FDQWLQFUHDVHVLQDGPLVVLRQVRIERWKVHYHUHO\DQGPRGHUDWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQLQ 1RYHPEHU'HFHPEHUDQG-DQXDU\DOWKRXJKWKLVQHHGVWREHLQWHUSUHWHGZLWKFDXWLRQJLYHQWKHLQWHUUXS- WLRQWRDFFHVVWRVHOHFWLYHIHHGLQJSURJUDPPHVDQGKHDOWKFHQWUHVZLWKWKHORFDOLVHGÀRRGLQJDQGFRQÀLFW GLVSODFHPHQW$JDLQWKHLPSDFWRIWKHVHYHUHÀRRGLQJLVOLNHO\WRKDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRWKLVGHWHULRUDWLRQ • Health Information System:,WLVYHU\GLI¿FXOWWRLQWHUSUHWWKH¿JXUHVIURPWKHKHDOWKFHQWUHVGXHWRUHGXFHG DFFHVVIROORZLQJWKHVHYHUHÀRRGLQJEXWDQLQFUHDVHLQOHYHOVRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQVFUHHQHGKDYH EHHQQRWHGLQFHUWDLQFHQWUHVRYHUWKHSDVWPRQWKVZLWKDSDUDOOHOLQFUHDVHUHSRUWHGLQVHDVRQDOPRUELGLW\

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 45 Issued March 7, 2007 4.1.3 Bay and Bakool

Overview

Bay and Bakool regions show a notable improvement in the humanitarian situation Map 20: Sorghum Belt due to the combination of the continued improvements from Gu ’06, very good Livelihood Systems Deyr crop production, and improved livestock productivity. Most pastoralists and agro pastoralists, or 350,000 people, are downgraded from Acute Food and Liveli- SORGHUM BELT hood Crisis to Chronically Food Insecure (Map 21). There are 75,000 people in Bakool region and only 8,000 in Bay region who remain in a phase of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis for at least the next six months (Table 19 & 20). However, the FSAU identiﬁ es the regions in an Early Warning Level of Watch due to the potential spread and impacts of an unknown camel disease.

In Bay region, the population that remain in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis are poor cattle pastoralists who have not yet recovered their pre-drought herds (Map 20). In Bakool, the population in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis are mostly from LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS areas of Rab Dhuure and parts of El Barde and consists of the most poor and vulner- AGRO-PASTORALISTS RIVERINE able who still have not fully recovered their assets and livelihoods from previous confl icts and last year’s drought, and still indicate critical nutrition status (Map 15). Also in Bakool, an agro-pastoral area bordering Hudur and Tieglow, also remains in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, as both the Gu ’06 and Deyr ‘06’/’07 rainfed sorghum production was Map 21: Food Security Phase Classifi cation Bay and below normal, due to poor rains in Gu ’06 and low yields Bakool resulting from ‘rattoon’ cropping in Deyr ‘06/’07. Most FSAU agro-pastoral households in Bay and Bakool, however, Phase Classifi cation

have fully recovered from the previous drought, as there is 1 Generally Food Secure recovery in both livestock and cereal production following 2 Chronically Food Insecure two consecutive seasons of good rains (Gu ’06 and Deyr 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis ‘06/’07). Near normal sorghum production in the Gu ’06 4 Humanitarian Emergency (98% of PWA), provided opportunities for debt repay- 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase ments and improved access to income and food. Watch Moderate Risk High Risk The exceptionally good sorghum in Deyr ‘06/’07 (398% Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs of PWA and 228% of PWA for Bakool and Bay, respec- Areas with IDP Concentrations southern somalia tively) ensures signiﬁ cantly improved access to income NOTES: 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are and food, with food stores fully recovered. All livestock rounded to the nearest 10,000 are in good condition, with high kidding/lambing (Feb.- 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org Phase Classiﬁ cation May), as well as calving (April-May) expected soon due to good conception in Hagaa (Sept.-Oct. ’06) and Deyr ‘06/’07.

Table 19: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Bay and Bakool.

Acute Food and Humanitarian Affected Regions and UNDP 2005 Total Total in AFLC or HE as Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE)Error! District Population1 % of Region population (AFLC)2 Bookmark not defined. Bakool El Barde 29,179 6,000 0 21 Rabdure 37,652 18,000 0 48 Tieglo 81,053 33,000 0 41 Wajid 69,694 0 0 0 Hudur 93,049 18,000 0 19 Sub-Total 310,627 75,000 0 24 Bay Baidoa/Bardale 320,463 3,000 0 1 Burhakaba 125,616 2,000 0 2 Dinsor 75,769 3,000 0 4 Q/dheere 98,714 0 0 Sub-Total 620,562 8,000 0 1 See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 46 Issued March 7, 2007 Table 20: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Bay and Bakool.

Generally, livestock holdings of agro-pastoralists are small (2 – 5 sheep/goats and 1-3 cattle for the poor), therefore with the minimal livestock stock losses during the drought (cattle losses of only 10-25% and sheep and goat losses of 0- 15%), livestock herd size are fully recovered or will be within the next six months (either through kidding/calving or by purchase).

Effects on Livelihood Assets southern somalia Natural Capital: Deyr season rainfall was signiﬁ cantly above normal, well distributed throughout the season and the two regions. The southern part of Bakool received between 200-300mm, while the northern part of the region received 100-200mm. Rains were 200-300% of long term average for Wajid and parts of Hudur, and between 150-200% for the rest of the region. Most of Bay region received 300-500mm RFE cumulative rainfall between Oct. to December 2006, which is 200 -300% of long term average. Consequently, rangeland conditions (pasture and browse) are signiﬁ cantly above normal and well distributed throughout the region and water availability and access are average to above average in all pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. Livestock migration was considered generally normal within the region. The presence and potential impacts of an unknown camel disease will need monitoring in the coming months.

Physical Capital: Heavy rains compounded a lack of maintenance and generally poor road conditions contributing to disruptions to the transport of and increase in the price of food and non-food commodities in the regions. For example, during the height of the rains trucks carrying food aid to Wajid took one month to cover a distance of 90 km. Although water availability improved generally with above average rains in both regions, many areas in Bakool, especially those where the main source of water is from catchments, may experience water shortages before the onset of the Gu ‘07 season rains due to lack of regular maintenance and therefore poor water catchment structures.

Social Capital: Social support network are an important social capital among pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods. Following weakened support networks in previous seasons due to the compounding impacts of several drought seasons, social support will improve over the coming months as pastoral productivity improves and as Deyr season crops are harvested. This will beneﬁ t poorer pastoral and agro-pastoral households. At this time of the season (January and February), in principal farmers donate one-tenth of their produce in the form of Zakaat (alms), traders donate 2.5% of cash ‘wealth’, and pastoralists contribute, for example, lactating animals.

Human Capital: The nutrition situation in Bay Region, from a range of indicators as presented below, still remains critical in parts. Due to the ongoing positive impact of the Deyr ’06 rains on the food security indicators it is hoped that this will continue to contribute to the improving trends. The nutrition situation in Bay region in Dinsor, Qansadhere and most of Baidoa districts remains Critical with a projected trend to improve with Burhakaba district remaining in a Serious nutrition situation (Map 15). However most indicators are showing a general improving trend over the past 6 months. The nutrition situation in Bakool Region from a range of indicators as presented below still remains critical in parts however some indicators are showing a general improving trend in the nutritional situation over the past 6 months. Similar to Bay Region with the ongoing positive impact of the Deyr ’06 rains on the food security indicators it is hoped that this will continue to contribute to the improving trends. Therefore the nutrition situation in Bakool region in El Berde, Rab Dhure and parts of Tieglow remains Critical, with Wajid, Huddur and remaining parts of Tieglow classiﬁ ed as Serious (Map 15) (for a more complete explanation of the nutrition situation refer to Nutrition Section).

Secular school attendance remains extremely low in both agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones in Bay and Bakool regions, with a few privately owned schools serving the urban population. Similarly, health services are limited to the main towns and a very few villages in rural areas.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 47 Issued March 7, 2007 Financial Capital: The compound effects of successive droughts in 2005 and 2006 impacted negatively upon the income options of pastoral and agro-pastoral households. This resulted in reduced cereal stocks and livestock mortality estimated to be 15-25% for cattle and 0-15% for sheep and JRDWV VHH)6$83RVW*X$QDO\VLV7HFKQLFDO6HULHV 5HSRUW1R99 7KHVHORVVHVWKRXJKQHHGWREHSXWLQ the context of overall livestock holdings by livelihood (Map 20). For example, average cattle holdings for poor house- KROGVLQWKH6RXWKHUQ$JURSDVWRUDO]RQHDUHFDWWOHLQWKH +LJK3RWHQWLDO6RUJKXP$JURSDVWRUDO]RQHFDWWOHKROGLQJV for poor households are 1-3 and for middle households 3-5. In this area in particular the primary resource for food and livelihood security is crop production.

As a consequence of above average Deyr rains livestock Milk Production is Expected to Improve, Bakool, Dec ’06 body condition is improving and market prices have im- SURYHGVLJQL¿FDQWO\ VHH,QFRPH6HFWLRQ $OWKRXJKFDWWOH KHUGJURZWKLVOLPLWHGORZFDOYLQJLVH[SHFWHGGXULQJ)HE- ruary to March due to conceptions in Gu ’06. High rates of kidding of sheep and goats are expected in April and May ’07 and medium rates of calving for camels are expected during WKHVDPHSHULRG7KLVZLOODOVRLQFUHDVHWKHDYDLODELOLW\RI milk and potential income in the coming months.

The exceptionally good sorghum in Deyr µ¶ RI 3:$DQGRI3:$IRU%DNRRODQG%D\UHVSHFWLYHO\ HQVXUHVVLJQL¿FDQWO\LPSURYHGDFFHVVWRLQFRPHDQGIRRGIRU DJURSDVWRUDOLVWVZLWKIRRGVWRUHVIXOO\UHFRYHUHG+RZHYHU debt levels for poor pastoral and agropastoral households, incurred in the last four consecutive drought seasons, remain KLJKDWDQHVWLPDWHG86KRXVHKROG$QXQNQRZQ Bumper Sorghum Production in Bakool, Dec ’06 camel disease has been reported in many parts of Bay and Bakool regions. This could have potential negative impacts IRU6RXWKHUQ,QODQG3DVWRUDOLVWVLQWKHUHJLRQDQGZLOOQHHG to be monitored closely in the coming months. southern somalia Effects of Livelihood Strategies

Agro-pastoralists normally access their food from different sources. The poor agro-pastoral households obtain 50-75% RIWKHLUDQQXDOIRRGIURPWKHLURZQFURSDQGOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLRQIROORZHGE\IURPIRRG VWDSOH QRQVWDSOH SXUFKDVHVZKLOHWKHUHVWFRPHVIURPJLIWVDQGZLOGIRRGV)RUWKHLUDQQXDOLQFRPHFRPHVIURPHPSOR\PHQW (agricultural labour, portering and construction) and self-employment (sale of bush products: collection of construction VWLFNVSROHVDQG¿UHZRRGFKDUFRDOSURGXFWLRQ FRPHVIURPWKHVDOHRIOLYHVWRFNDQGOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWVZKLOH the rest comes from crop production sales and remittance.

3DVWRUDOLVWVVOLJKWO\GLIIHUIURPDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVLQWHUPVRIVRXUFHVRIIRRGDQGLQFRPH7KHSRRUSDVWRUDOLVWVGHULYH RIWKHLUDQQXDOIRRGIURPPDUNHWSXUFKDVHVZKLOHWKHUHVWLVDFFHVVHGWKURXJKOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWV PLONDQGPHDW ,QDGGLWLRQPRVWRIWKHLUDQQXDOLQFRPH LQDQRUPDO\HDUFRPHVIURPOLYHVWRFNDQGOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWVDOHV VXSSOHPHQWHGZLWKVHOIHPSOR\PHQWDFWLYLWLHV VDOHRIJXPVUHVLQVHWF

Food Sources: Overall food sources for both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in Bay and Bakool regions are improving DQGUHFRYHULQJIURPWKHSUHYLRXVGURXJKW%RWKOLYHVWRFNDQGFURSSURGXFWLRQLPSURYHGGXHWRWZRFRQVHFXWLYHVHDVRQV of good rainfall (Gu ’06 and Deyr¶¶ UHFHLYHGLQWKHUHJLRQV1HDUQRUPDOVRUJKXPSURGXFWLRQLQGu¶ RI 3:$ DQGDERYHQRUPDODeyr ’06/’07 production in both regions improved access to income and food.

,Q%DNRROUHJLRQVRUJKXPSURGXFWLRQRIRI3:$ 0W LVH[SHFWHGWKLVDeyr ‘06/’07. This is greater than 2000% of Gu¶SURGXFWLRQ+RZHYHULQSRFNHWVEHWZHHQ+XGXUDQG7LHJORZWKHKDUYHVWIDLOHGGXHWRSRRUUDLQIDOO during Gu¶SHVWRXWEUHDNVDQGORZ\LHOGVUHVXOWLQJIURPUDWRRQFURSSLQJLQDeyrµ¶3ULRUWRWKLVVHDVRQFDUU\ RYHUVWRFNVLQ%DNRROIRUSRRUDQGPLGGOHLQFRPHDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVZDVORZGXHWRVHYHUDOGURXJKWVHDVRQVDQGSRRUVRU- ghum production (Gu ’05 36%; Deyr ‘05/’06 13%; and Gu¶RI3:$ %D\UHJLRQH[SHULHQFHGDEXPSHUKDUYHVW during Deyrµ¶ RI3:$ DQGFRQWULEXWHG 0W RIWRWDOFHUHDOSURGXFWLRQLQ6RXWKHUQ6RPDOLD VHH $JULFXOWXUH6HFWLRQ )LJXUH

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 48 Issued March 7, 2007 )LJXUH'H\U&HUHDO3URGXFWLRQLQ%D\ )LJXUH'H\U&HUHDO3URGXFWLRQLQ%DNRRO

70,000 6,000 Sorghum Sorghum 60,000 5,000 Maize Maize PWA(1995-2005) 50,000 PWA(1995-2005) 4,000 40,000

MT 3,000 30,000 MT

20,000 2,000

10,000 1,000 0

5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Year

6RUJKXPSULFHVWKURXJKRXWWKH6RUJKXP%HOW *HGR+LUDQ%D\DQG%DNRRO DUHVLJQL¿FDQWO\EHORZWKHLUSHDNOHYHOV LQHDUO\ )LJXUH 6RUJKXPSULFHVLQ-DQXDU\¶DUHORZHUWKDQWKHLUSHDNOHYHOVLQ0DUFK¶,Q+XGXU WKHSULFHRIVRUJKXPKDVGHFUHDVHGE\EHWZHHQ-DQXDU\¶DQG-DQXDU\¶ IURP6R6KWR6R6KNJ 6RUJKXPSULFHVZLOOFRQWLQXHWRGHFOLQHDVWKHEXPSHUVRUJKXPKDUYHVWHQWHUVWKHPDUNHW7KLVZLOOLPSURYHIRRGDFFHVV IRUSRRUDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVDQGSDVWRUDOLVWV7KLVVRXUFHRIFHUHDOVLVDOVRLPSRUWDQWIRUUHJLRQVZLWKORZFHUHDOSURGXFWLRQ IRUH[DPSOH+LUDQ VHH+LUDQ5HJLRQ &RQVHTXHQWO\ORZFHUHDOSULFHVDQGLQFUHDVLQJOLYHVWRFNSULFHVKDYHLPSURYHG terms of trade for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists across the regions.

0LONDYDLODELOLW\YDULHVGHSHQGLQJRQOLYHVWRFNVSHFLHVEXWZLOOLPSURYHLQWKHFRPLQJPRQWKV&XUUHQWO\PLONDYDLODELOLW\ LVEHORZDYHUDJHIURPFDPHODQGFDWWOHGXHWRORZFRQFHSWLRQLQDeyr ’05 and Hagaa¶+RZHYHUWKLVLVH[SHFWHGWR LPSURYHZLWKPHGLXPWRKLJKFDOYLQJLQ$SULOWR0D\IRUFDPHOVDQGORZFDOYLQJIRUFDWWOHGXULQJ)HEUXDU\DQG0DUFK southern somalia ZLWKLPSURYHGFDOYLQJLQ0D\DQG-XQH0LONLVFXUUHQWO\DYDLODEOHIURPJRDWVDQGVKHHSEXWKLJKLVH[SHFWHGLQ$SULO and May.

$FFHVVWRZLOGIRRGKDVDOVRLPSURYHGZLWKWKHJRRGDeyr ’06/’07 rains.

Income sources: Good Deyr¶¶FURSSURVSHFWVDQGKLJKOLYHVWRFNSULFHVKDYHLPSURYHGVLJQL¿FDQWO\WKHLQFRPH options of pastoral and agro-pastoral households in Bay and Bakool. Agro-pastoralists had earlier access to green crops PDL]HFRZSHDDQGZLOGYHJHWDEOH IRUFRQVXPSWLRQLQ1RYHPEHUDQG'HFHPEHUWKXVUHGXFLQJFHUHDOSXUFKDVHVLQFRPH IURPFURSVDOHVDQGDJULFXOWXUDOODERXURSSRUWXQLWLHVZHUHKLJKLQERWKUHJLRQVGXHWRKLJKODERXUGHPDQGGXHWRWKH EXPSHUFURSSURGXFWLRQ ZHHGLQJDQGKDUYHVWLQJ ZLWKLPSURYHGZDJHV 6R6KGD\FRPSDUHGWRSUHYLRXV VHDVRQV6R6KGD\ +RZHYHULQFRPHIURPPLONLVVWLOOEHORZQRUPDOIRUSDVWRUDOLVWVDQGDJURSDVWRUDO- ists though this is expected to improve in the coming months (see Food Sources). In Bakool region, income from honey sales is also increasing due to good seasonal rainfall and improved vegetation cover. Increased livestock prices are due to improved body conditions for all species. For example, average prices for local quality livestock in the Sorghum Belt LQFUHDVHGIURP-DQXDU\¶WR-DQXDU\¶E\IRUFDWWOH 6R6KWR6R6K IRUJRDWV 6R6K WR6R6K DQGIRUFDPHO 6R6KWR6R6K

Market Purchase: ,PSURYHGDQGKLJKOLYHVWRFNSULFHVIRUDOOVSHFLHVDQGEXPSHUSURGXFWLRQZLWKORZFHUHDOSULFHVKDYH LPSURYHGSXUFKDVLQJSRZHUIRUERWKSDVWRUDOLVWVDQGDJURSDVWRUDOLVWV )LJXUH )RUDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVH[SHQGLWXUHRQ FHUHDOVKDVUHGXFHGVLJQL¿FDQWO\DVWKH\KDUYHVWHGZHOODERYH3:$SURGXFWLRQ/RZFHUHDOSULFHVDOVREHQH¿WSDVWRUDO- LVWVDVH[SHQGLWXUHRQFHUHDOSXUFKDVHLVUHGXFHG$YHUDJHWHUPVRIWUDGHEHWZHHQORFDOTXDOLW\JRDWDQGVRUJKXPLQWKH 6RUJKXP%HOWKDYHLQFUHDVHGIURPNJWRNJJRDWDQLQFUHDVHRI,Q+XGXUWKHLQFUHDVHLV7HUPV RIWUDGHIRUSRRUKRXVHKROGV ODERXUGDLO\ZDJHUDWHWRNJFHUHDOV KDVDOVRLPSURYHGGUDPDWLFDOO\RYHUWKHVDPHSHULRG ,Q+XGXUWKHWHUPVRIWUDGHLQ-DQXDU\¶IRUSRRUKRXVHKROGVZHUHWKHKLJKHVWIRUDWOHDVWVL[\HDUV NJGDLO\ZDJH UDWH DQGDQLQFUHDVHRIVLQFH-DQXDU\¶,PSRUWHGFRPPRGLWLHVLQ;XGXUUHPDLQKLJKDQGLQ-DQXDU\µVXJDU DQGYHJHWDEOHRLOKDGLQFUHDVHGE\DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\FRPSDUHGWRWKHVDPHWLPHODVW\HDUDOWKRXJKUHGXFHGIURP KLJKVLQ1RYHPEHUµ7KHLQFUHDVHRIURDGEORFNOHYLHVDQGGLHVHOIXHOSULFHLQFUHDVHV FRPSDUHGWR-DQµ increased transport costs and therefore commodity prices.

Coping Strategies: Currently, poor agro-pastoral and pastoral households have access to a number of coping strategies. 7KHVHLQFOXGHDJULFXOWXUDOHPSOR\PHQWGXULQJWKHKDUYHVWSHULRGLQZKLFKWKHSRRUKRXVHKROGVDUHSDLGHLWKHUFDVKRU in kind; gifts (Zakaat) in kind (livestock or crops); and, the collection of bush products, though this has reduced due to the importance of agricultural labour. Honey collection, livestock herding and the receipt of remittances from inside and RXWVLGHWKHFRXQWU\DOVRFRQWULEXWHWROLYHOLKRRGVWUDWHJLHV'XULQJWKHKHLJKWRIWKHFRQÀLFWGLVSODFHPHQWDZD\IURPWKH FRQÀLFWHSLFHQWUHVZDVQRWHGWKRXJKLQJHQHUDOWKLVZDVRIVKRUWGXUDWLRQDQGVKRUWGLVWDQFH IURPXUEDQWRUXUDODUHDV IRUH[DPSOH VHH&RQÀLFW6HFWLRQ

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 49 Issued March 7, 2007 Nutrition Situation

Bay 7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV

• Nutrition Assessments:WKHPRVWUHFHQWQXWULWLRQDVVHVVPHQWFRQGXFWHGLQ%D\5HJLRQZDVLQ6HSWHPEHU LQ%HUGDOOHGLVWULFWZKHUHD*$0RI11.2% (9.5-13.6) and a SAM of 2.5% ZDVUHSRUWHG7KLV LQGLFDWHGDQLPSURYHPHQWIURPWKHSUHYLRXVDVVHVVPHQWFRQGXFWHGLQ0D\ZKHUHD*$0RIDQG D6$0RIZHUHUHSRUWHGWKRXJKLWPXVWEHQRWHGWKDWWKHWLPLQJRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWVZHUHGLIIHUHQW ZLWK0D\EHLQJPLG*XUDLQVDQG6HSWHPEHUMXVWEHIRUH'H\UUDLQV • Sentinel Site Data: The last three rounds of sentinel site surveillance (SSS) have indicated decreasing trends LQWKHOHYHOVRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQLQPRVWVLWHVKRZHYHUWKHSURSRUWLRQRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHG children is still high and is an indication of precarious nutrition situation. • Selective Feeding Centres: Similarly high numbers of admissions into the selective feeding centres persist WKRXJKZLWKGHFOLQLQJWUHQGVLQUHFHQWPRQWKV • Health Information System: data (see graphs). High numbers of acutely malnourished children are being UHSRUWHGIURPVFUHHQLQJDWWKH+HDOWKFHQWUHOHYHOEXWZLWKGHFUHDVLQJWUHQGVRYHUWKHODVWWKUHHPRQWKV

Bakool 7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV

• Nutrition Assessments:7KHPRVWUHFHQWQXWULWLRQDVVHVVPHQWZDVFRQGXFWHGLQ'HFHPEHU¶LQWKHSDV- WRUDODUHDRI%DNRROUHJLRQ(O%HUGH'LVWULFWDQGUHSRUWHGDFULWLFDOQXWULWLRQVLWXDWLRQZLWK*$0RI17.7% (15.3-20.3) and a SAM of 3.2% 7KHVHUHVXOWVDOWKRXJKKLJKDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHSUHYLRXV

southern somalia DVVHVVPHQWVFRQGXFWHGLQWKHDUHDZKHUHUDWHVRIKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGLQWKHSDVWIHZ\HDUVWKRXJK DWGLIIHUHQWWLPHVRI\HDU7KLVDUHDRI%DNRROUHJLRQLVUHFRYHULQJIURPVHYHUDOVKRFNVRIGURXJKWFRQÀLFW and market disruption over recent years. Another assessment conducted in Bakool Region earlier last year by 06)%LQ+XGGXU7RZQDQGHQYLURQVLQ-XQHUHSRUWHG9.3% (7.1-12.1) GAM and 0.9% (0.4-2.0) SAM. • Rapid MUAC assessment$UDSLGDVVHVVPHQW 'HFHPEHU LQ+XGGXU'LVWULFWUHFRUGHGRI FKLOGUHQ\HDUVZLWK08$& FPIURPDUDQGRPVDPSOHRIFKLOGUHQLQYLOODJHV,Q7LHJORZ 'LVWULFWDOVRLQ'HFHPEHU¶UDQGRPO\VHOHFWHGFKLOGUHQ\UVIURPYLOODJHVZHUHDOVRVFUHHQHG ZLWKDPRUHZRUU\LQJRIFKLOGUHQZLWKD08$& FP,QWHUHVWLQJO\WKHIRRGVHFXULW\VLWXDWLRQLQ SDUWVRI7LHJORZ'LVWULFWLVDOVROHVVSRVLWLYH VHH,3&0DS WKDQRWKHUSDUWVRI%DNRROUHJLRQGXHWRWKH VSHFL¿FDJULFXOWXUDOSUDFWLFHVZKLFKGLGQRWEHQH¿WIXOO\IURPWKHJRRG'H\U¶UDLQV,Q:DMLG'LVWULFW RIFKLOGUHQ\UVUDQGRPO\VHOHFWHGIURPVLWHVUHFRUGHG08$& FP • Sentinel Site Data:7KHODVWWZRURXQGVRI666KDYHLQGLFDWHGGHFUHDVLQJWUHQGVLQWKHOHYHOVRIDFXWHO\ PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQKRZHYHUWKHSURSRUWLRQRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQLVVWLOOKLJK ! DQG is an indication of a precarious nutrition situation. • Selective Feeding Centres: Admissions of severely and moderately malnourished children in selective feed- LQJFHQWUHVYDULHVWKURXJKRXWWKHUHJLRQZLWKKLJKWKRXJKGHFUHDVLQJWUHQGVLQ:DMLGPRUHVWDEOHWUHQGVLQ +XGGXUDQGVOLJKWLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGVLQ(O%HUGHKRZHYHUGXHWRGLVUXSWLRQWRSURJUDPPHGHOLYHU\IROORZLQJ LQVHFXULW\DQGFRQÀLFWFDUHLVQHHGHGLQLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIUHVXOWV • Health Information System:1XPEHUVRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQEHLQJVFUHHQHGDWKHDOWKFHQWUH OHYHOUHPDLQKLJKWKRXJKZLWKGHFUHDVLQJWUHQGVRYHUWKHSDVWPRQWKV

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 50 Issued March 7, 2007 4.1.5 Lower and Middle Shabelle Overview Map 22: Shabelle and Cowpea Belt Livelihood Systems 3DVWRUDODJURSDVWRUDODQGULYHULQHOLYHOLKRRGV 0DS LQ0LGGOHDQG/RZHU SHABE//E & COWPEA BE/T Shabelle are considered to be Chronically Food Insecure and maintains the phase from Gu ’06 (Map 23).

)ORRGLQJLQULYHULQHDUHDVDQGVRPHÀDVKÀRRGLQJLQUDLQIHGDUHDVOHGWRWKHDOPRVW FRPSOHWHIDLOXUHRIPDL]HFURSVWKRXJKUDLQIHGVRUJKXPSURGXFWLRQYDULHVEHWZHHQ DQGRIVHDVRQDO3:$ LQ:DQOH:H\QDQG4RULROH\UHVSHFWLYHO\ Deyr ‘06/’07 total cereal production in the Shabelle Valley is estimated at 27,370mt, of ZKLFK07RULVVRUJKXPDQGLVPDL]HRU077KLVLVURXJKO\ KDOIRIWKHSRVWZDUDYHUDJH RI3:$LQ/RZHU6KDEHOOHDQGRI3:$LQ LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS Middle Shabelle). PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS RIVERINE URBAN 'HVSLWHWRWDOGLVSODFHPHQWRIDQHVWLPDWHGSHRSOHDQGWKHORVVRIFURSSURGXF- WLRQGXHWRÀRRGLQJ HVWLPDWHGDWDQGKHFWDUHVRIPDL]HLQ/RZHUDQG Middle Shabelle respectively, 22,000 hectares of sorghum, DQGFRQVLGHUDEOHDUHDVRIVHVDPHDQGFRZSHD SXUFKDV- LQJSRZHUDQGIRRGDFFHVVIRUSRRUKRXVHKROGVUHOLDQWRQ 0DS)RRG6HFXULW\3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ6KDEHOOH labour opportunities and market purchase has increased over the previous year (and 73% from Gu ‘06) as cereal FSAU SULFHVKDYHGHFOLQHGDQGGDLO\ODERXUZDJHUDWHVKDYHLQ- 3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ creased. Furthermore, although riverine communities have 1 Generally Food Secure VXIIHUHGVLPLODUÀRRGLPSDFWVGXULQJWKHDeyrÀRRGVWR 2 Chronically Food Insecure other regions (see Hiran, Juba valley, and Gedo Regions) 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis they are considered more resilient to periodic shocks and 4 Humanitarian Emergency 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe stresses due to the extensive range of coping strategies (DUO\:DUQLQJ/HYHOVIRUZRUVHQLQJ3KDVH DYDLODEOHLQFOXGLQJLQFRPHGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQV Watch Moderate Risk High Risk In pastoral and agro-pastoral areas livestock productivity, Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations IROORZLQJH[FHSWLRQDOO\JRRGDeyr rains (150-300% of ORQJWHUPPHDQ LVLPSURYLQJDQGUHÀHFWHGLQLQFUHDV- NOTES: 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are LQJKHUGVL]HLPSURYHGERG\FRQGLWLRQLPSURYLQJPLON rounded to the nearest 10,000 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org southern somalia availability and increased income from livestock sales. 3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ Migration patterns for the season are considered normal DQGGXHWRWKHZLGHVSUHDGUHJLRQDOLPSURYHPHQWVLQ rangeland conditions the in-migrant livestock noted in the Gu ’06 season have returned to their areas of origin. This has reduced the competition for natural resources in the Shabelle Valley. Sorghum production from agro-pastoral DUHDVLVDQGRI3:$ IRU/RZHUDQG0LGGOH6KDEHOOHUHVSHFWLYHO\ LPSURYLQJKRXVHKROGFHUHDOVWRFNV DQGIRRGDFFHVV*RDWWRPDL]HWHUPVRIWUDGHKDVFRQWLQXHGWRLPSURYHDQGWKLVWUHQGFRQWLQXHVWKLVVHDVRQZLWKD decline in cereal prices and an increase in livestock prices, increasing by 147% from the end of the Jilaal ’06 period (April) to January ’07, the highest level for at least eight years.

7KH)6$8LGHQWL¿HVWKH6KDEHOOH9DOOH\LQDQEarly Warning level of Watch for several reasons. 6SHFL¿FDOO\ULY- erine livelihoods are considered in an Early Warning level of Watch due to potential declines in income from crop losses incurred during the Deyrµ¶VHDVRQDQGWKHULVNDVVRFLDWHGZLWKRIIVHDVRQFHUHDOKDUYHVWDQGDFRQVHTXHQW SRWHQWLDOLQFUHDVHLQFHUHDOSULFHV0RUHJHQHUDOO\WKHUHJLRQVZLOOEHPRQLWRUHGIRUGHWHULRUDWLRQLQVHFXULW\ VHH ,QVHFXULW\6HFWLRQ WKHSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWVRIDQXQNQRZQFDPHOGLVHDVH VHH/LYHVWRFN6HFWLRQ DQGSRWHQWLDOVHDVRQDO RYHUODSEHWZHHQDeyr off-season and Gu season production.

Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural capital: Rainfall during the Deyrµ¶VHDVRQZDVDERYHQRUPDODQGZHOOGLVWULEXWHGWKURXJKRXWWKH UHJLRQV0RVWRIWKHWZRUHJLRQVUHFHLYHGFXPXODWLYHUDLQIDOORIPPZKLOHFRDVWDODUHDVUHFHLYHGEHWZHHQ PPDQGSDUWVRIZHVWHUQ0LGGOH6KDEHOOHUHFHLYHGEHWZHHQPP%RWKUHJLRQVUHFHLYHGUDLQIDOO EHWZHHQRIORQJWHUPPHDQ7KLVKDVLPSURYHGZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\WKURXJKRXWWKHUDLQGHSHQGHQWDUHDVRI WKHWZRUHJLRQVDQGOHGWRGHFUHDVHVLQZDWHUSULFHV&RQVHTXHQWO\SDVWXUHDQGEURZVHDUHVLJQL¿FDQWO\DERYHQRUPDO DQGZHOOGLVWULEXWHGWKURXJKRXWWKHUHJLRQV1'9,IRUODVWGHFDGHRI'HFHPEHUZDVVLJQL¿FDQWO\DERYHORQJ WHUPDYHUDJH IRU/RZHU6KDEHOOHDQGIRU0LGGOH6KDEHOOHFRPSDUHGWRWKH1'9,DYHUDJHIRU

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 51 Issued March 7, 2007 ’05). Furthermore, widespread rainfall in other regions has led to the return of previously in-migrated livestock (for example from Hiran) thus reducing the burden on natural resources in the Shabelle valley. Widespread water and pasture availability has also minimized disputes and competition over resources (see Insecurity Section).

Physical Capital: The condition of irrigation infrastructure is deteriorating. For example, several primary canals were silted up, many others deliberately cut-off by local communities to lessen fl ood damage and to protect village settlements. Deyr season fl ooding took place in most down stream areas, due to fragile embankments, notably in Kurtunware, Qoriole and Marka districts. Increased Damaged Rainfed Maize, river bed deposits leading to diversion from the original North Brava, Lower Shabelle course of the river is one of the main causes of recurrent seasonal fl ooding in the down stream areas of the Figure 30: Shabelle Valley: Average Monthly Daily Wage Shabelle valley. Rates (SOSH)

30,000 Flooding submerged farmland (see Photo) and settlements and led to the loss of an estimated 23,000 and 25,000 Marka 20,000 9,000 hectares of maize in Lower and Middle Shabelle Jowhar

respectively. In Lower Shabelle ﬂ ash ﬂ ooding led to the Qoryoley 15,000 loss of an estimated 22,000 hectares of rainfed sorghum Afgoye and several thousand hectares of sesame and cowpea. In 10,000 Price per Daily Wage Rate (SOSH) Middle Shabelle a substantial amount of sesame (35,000 5,000 hectares) was destroyed. Flooding led also to the displacement of an estimated 36,000 people in Middle Shabelle 0 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 0 -0 -0 0 0 0 -0 c- n b r r y n l- g p v- c- n e a p a Ju u e and 12,000 in Lower Shabelle though mot of these (more De Ja F M A M Ju A S Oct- No De Ja Month than 90%) have returned and resumed farming activities. The road infrastructure deteriorated further during the heavy rains of the Deyr season. Feeder roads in most rural areas were impassable leading to short term increases in imported commodities.

Human capital: The nutrition situation in Lower and Middle Shabelle remains Alert with some pockets (Adale town, Caligudud, Moiko and Jowhar Town) indicating a more serious situation. These pockets of concern are possibly

southern somalia linked to recent ﬂ ooding and exposure to water borne disease such as AWD. In addition, due to the high numbers of vulnerable groups (IDPs and urban poor) in Mogadishu, reﬂ ected in the high and stable admission of severely malnourished children into the selective feeding centres, the nutrition situation there remains critical.

School attendance dropped in during the fl ooding period of fl oods, but improved soon afterwards in most areas as the fl oods receded.

Financial capital: Crop losses in riverine areas (see Physical Capital and Food Sources) have led to reductions in household cereal stocks and increased the importance of market purchase. This has increased average levels of indebtedness for poor households. Although income opportunities vary with seasonal demand (see Income Sources) labour wage rates have remained relatively stable over the previous year though have shown an increasing trend from previous years (Figure 30).

Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are beneﬁ ting from increases in livestock holdings between October ’05 and December ’06 and agro-pastoralists are beneﬁ ting from above average sorghum production in general (see Food Sources). Milk production is considered average for the Deyr season, with medium calving of camels in April and May ’07, medium calving of cattle in February and March ’07 and high kidding of sheep and goats in April and May ’07 leading to improvements in the availability of milk in the coming months, further increases in livestock holdings and improve income potential. An unknown camel disease has been reported in the Shabelle Valley. This could have negative impacts on livestock productivity and will need to be monitored closely in the coming months.

Social support: Normally, strong social networks exist within the communities in the Shabelle valley including kinship support and religious obligations. During the Deyr season Zakaat and crop gifts declined due to poor crop production in the riverine livelihood (51% and 55% of PWA in Middle and Lower Shabelle respectively – see Food Sources Section below). However, small numbers of riverine households received local money transfers from urban centers (including Mogadishu), and the central and northeast regions.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 52 Issued March 7, 2007 Effects on Livelihood Strategies Figure 31: Deyr Cereal Production in Shabelle Regions There are three main livelihood systems in Shabelle Val- 120,000 OH\RXWVLGHRIXUEDQOLYHOLKRRGVZKLFKDUHULYHULQHIDUP- 100,000 ers (irrigated farms), agro-pastoralists (rainfed farms and Sorghum cattle rearing) and pastoralists (camel, sheep, goats and Maize 80,000 PWA (1995-2005) cattle) (Map 22). Both poor agro-pastoralists and riverine

60,000

FRPPXQLWLHVSULPDULO\UHO\RQWKHLURZQFURSSURGXFWLRQ MT IRUWKHLUIRRGQHHGV VXSSOHPHQWLQJWKLVZLWK market purchases (10-20%) and animal products (0-15%). 40,000 3RRUDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVHDUQRIWKHLUFDVKLQFRPH through employment and self-employment (agricultural 20,000

labour), gathering and sale of bush products, and sale of 0 OLYHVWRFNDQGOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWV 3RRUULYHULQH 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 farmers earn half of their income from crop sales (cereals Year DQGQRQFHUHDOV IROORZHGE\VHDVRQDOFDVXDOODERXU )LJXUH7HUPVRI7UDGHLQ6KDEHOOH9DOOH\0DL]HWR /RFDO*RDWDQG/DERXU Food sources:,Q/RZHU6KDEHOOHWKLVLVWKH¿IWKFRQVHFX- 350.00 35.00

WLYHVHDVRQRIEHORZSRVWZDUDYHUDJHVHDVRQDOFHUHDO 300.00 0DL]H NJ SHU/RFDO*RDW KHDG 30.00 t e production (Gu¶ZDVRI3:$Deyr ‘05/’06 0DL]H NJ SHU/DERXU:DJH GDLO\ RI3:$GuµRI3:$Deyrµ¶ 250.00 25.00

RI3:$ ,Q0LGGOH6KDEHOOHWKHVLWXDWLRQKDVEHHQOLWWOH 200.00 20.00 EHWWHUZLWKWZRRIWKHSUHYLRXVIRXUVHDVRQVZHOOEHORZ 150.00 15.00 VHDVRQDO3:$DQGWZRVOLJKWO\DERYH3:$ Gu¶ZDV RI3:$Deyrµ¶RI3:$Gu ‘05 116% 100.00 10.00 southern somalia Kgs of Maize per 1 Head Local Goa RI3:$Deyrµ¶RI3:$ Deyr ‘06/’07 total Kgs of Maize per Daily Labour Wag 50.00 5.00 cereal production in the Shabelle Valley is estimated at PWRIZKLFK07RULVVRUJKXPDQG 0.00 0.00 99 -99 00 -00 01 -01 02 -02 03 -03 04 -04 05 -05 06 -06 07 Q XO n- ul n- ul n- ul n- ul n- ul n- ul n- ul n- ul n- LVPDL]HRU077KLVLVURXJKO\KDOIRIWKHSRVW -D - Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja Month/Year ZDUDYHUDJH RI3:$LQ/RZHU6KDEHOOHDQG RI3:$LQ0LGGOH6KDEHOOH )LJXUH

7KH6KDEHOOH9DOOH\LVFRQVLGHUHGWKHPDL]HEDVNHWRIVRXWKHUQ6RPDOLD,QWKLVDeyrVHDVRQPDL]HSODQWLQJVWDUWHG HDUOLHUWKDQXVXDOEHQH¿WLQJIURPWKHRFFDVLRQDOUDLQVLQODWH$XJXVWWRHDUO\6HSWHPEHU0RVWRIWKHHVWDEOLVKHG FURSVZHUHLUULJDWHGSULRUWRWKHRQVHWRIWKHDeyr rains, and then at the start of the DeyrVHDVRQLQ2FWREHUZHUHKLW E\WKHWRUUHQWLDOUDLQVDQGVHYHUHULYHUÀRRGLQJLQPRVWRIWKHPDL]HEDVNHWDUHDVRI4RULROH0DUND.XUWXQZDUHDQG $IJR\HGLVWULFWVRI/RZHU6KDEHOOHDQG-RZKDUDQG%DODGGLVWULFWVRI0LGGOH6KDEHOOH$VDUHVXOWWKH high potential PDL]HSURGXFLQJDUHDVH[SHULHQFHGFRPSOHWHFURSIDLOXUHRUSRRUKDUYHVWZLWK/RZHU6KDEHOOHPDL]HSURGXFWLRQ of DeyrPDL]H3:$DQG0LGGOH6KDEHOOHRIDeyrPDL]H3:$7KHUHJLRQDOFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKH6KDEHOOHYDOOH\ WRWRWDOPDL]HSURGXFWLRQLQDeyrµ¶LVDQGIRU0LGGOHDQG/RZHU6KDEHOOHUHVSHFWLYHO\ )LJXUH

$OWKRXJKWKHUHLVWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUUHFHVVLRQFXOWLYDWLRQRIPDL]H DQHVWLPDWHGPW WKLVFDQQRWEHJXDUDQWHHG WRRIIVHWVRPHRIWKLVFURSSURGXFWLRQGH¿FLWGXHWRSRWHQWLDOVHDVRQDORYHUODSDQGÀRRGLQJGXULQJWKHGu season GXHWRULYHUEUHDNDJHVUHPDLQLQJRSHQDQGSRWHQWLDOSHVWLQIHVWDWLRQV3RWHQWLDODeyrRIIVHDVRQRYHUODSZLWKWKHGu season may reduce the potential Gu planted area.

$OWKRXJKÀRRGLQJGHVWUR\HGPXFKRIWKHULYHULQHPDL]HSURGXFWLRQUDLQIHGVRUJKXPLQDJURSDVWRUDODUHDVIDLUHGPXFK EHWWHUDOWKRXJKDQHVWLPDWHGKDRIVRUJKXPZDVGHVWUR\HGE\ÀDVKÀ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ÀDVKÀRRGV

Income Sources: 7KHGHVWUXFWLRQRIULYHULQHPDL]HFURSVKDVUHVXOWHGLQDGHFOLQHLQSRWHQWLDOFDVKLQFRPHIURP PDL]HVDOHV7KLVORVVLVLQDGGLWLRQWRWKHGHFOLQHRILQFRPHIURPDeyrVHDVRQ EHWZHHQ2FWREHUDQG'HFHPEHU¶ DJULFXOWXUDORSSRUWXQLWLHVGXHWRÀRRGLQJWKRXJKUHFHVVLRQFXOWLYDWLRQ -DQXDU\WR0DUFK LQWKHULYHULQHDUHDV RI VHVDPHIRUH[DPSOH DQGSDUWVRIFRDVWDO]RQHVKDVLPSURYHGLQFRPHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUWKHSRRU WKURXJKDJULFXOWXUDO labour) and for the better-off (through the sale of the sesame cash crop).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 53 Issued March 7, 2007 Increasing prices for all livestock species has improved Figure 33: Shabelle Valley: Average Monthly Prices Local income for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in the Quality Cattle (US$) Shabelle valley. Livestock prices for all species have 120

increased signiﬁ cantly over the last six months, fol- 100 lowing the recovery of livestock body conditions and 80 productivity. In the Shabelle valley average local quality cattle prices have improved from January ’06 to January 60 ’07 by 27% (from SoSh890,833 to SoSh1,134,167/head) 40 (Figure 33). Similarly, goat prices also have increased Price per Head of Cattle (US$) Marka 20 Afgoye from SoSh301,813 in January ’06 to SoSh387,375 in Qoryoley Jowhar

January ’07 (an increase of 28%). January ’07 prices are 0

5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 - - r- - - - l- - -0 - - -0 - c n b r y n u g p t v c n the highest they have been since April ’04. e a e a p a u J u e c o e a D J F M A M J A S O N D J Month Market Purchase: Due to Deyr maize production failure riverine communities are relying increasingly on market purchase. Average maize prices in the Shabelle valley have decreased from the high in May ’06 of SoSh3,410 to SoSh1,584/kg in January ’07 (a decrease of 54%). January ’07 prices decreased 35% compared to January ’06 (SoSh2,421) due to local production from rainfed maize (and possibly food aid) entering the market and decreased demand from Mogadishu. However, prices are expected to stabilize and increase over the coming months as local supply diminishes especially as the off-season production cannot be guaranteed.

Though total cereal production is below PWA, terms of trade between maize and daily wages has shown a general trend of improvement over the last ﬁ ve years (September 2003-January 2007) and this trend continues with the decline in cereal prices and increase in wage rates. Currently, maize to daily labour wage has increased 73% from the Gu season to January ’07 (from 7.73kg in July ’06 to 13.39kg in January ‘07) and from 85% from January ’06 (7.25kg) to January ’07. This increases purchasing power and food access for poor households reliant on labour opportunities and market purchase. For agro-pastoral livelihoods, following a decrease in cereal prices and an increase in livestock prices terms of trade between local quality goats and maize increased 103% from January 2006 to January ’07 (from 124.19 to 252.59 respectively) and even more (147%) from the end of the Jilaal ’06 period (102.13 in April ’06) and are at their highest level for at least eight years (Figure 32).

Prices of imported foods (including sugar and vegetable oil), which have links to US$-SoSh exchange rate trends, have increased in recent months due to the increasing insecurity in the region. Vegetable oil has increased from October ’06 to January ’07 by 30% (from SoSh10,275 to SoSh13,413/litre). Similarly, sugar has also increased by 5% over the same period. Price rises may vary due to current stocks. Shabelle valley riverine agriculture is largely dependent on gravity irrigation (and therefore different form Hiran – see Hiran region), and although the price is less relevant southern somalia as a cost for irrigation it is important as an input cost for tractor (ploughing) use. Fuel prices have remained relatively stable over the past several months (see Market Section).

Coping strategies: Although riverine communities in the Shabelle valley suffered similar losses (crop losses, displacement, damage to physical infrastructure) during the Deyr season fl oods to other regions (Hiran, Gedo and Juba riverine areas), Shabelle riverine communities (including the poor), in addition to advantageous terms of trade, are considered much more resilient to periodic shocks and stresses due to the extensive range of coping strategies, including income diversifi cation options, available. Poor households have taken advantage of these opportunities by accessing fl ood recession cultivation, through labour migration and crop sharing with better-off groups and migration to rainfed areas and gaining greater access to credit from traders and or other farmers who harvested early. Furthermore, the proximity of the Mogadishu employment catchment area greatly increases income opportunities which are complemented by the collection of fi rewood, construction materials, fodder and charcoal sales. Poor riverine households will also try to minimize risk over the coming months by planting short cycle crops including pumpkins and cowpeas.

Nutrition Situation The key nutrition ﬁ ndings in these areas are as follows:

• Rapid MUAC assessment: A rapid MAUC assessment was conducted in 12 villages in December: 2 villages each in Jowhar and Mahadaay, 3 villages in Alanyabaal and 5 villages in Adale of children 1-5yrs. In Jowhar district from a sample of 200 children - 9% of children were reported with MUAC <12.5cm, in Adale out of a sample 589 children 12.3% of children were reported with MUAC <12.5cm although 2 villages had levels over 15% where the community reported a recent diarrhoeal outbreak. In Alanyabaal from a sample of 301 children the numbers were lower at 5% of children with a MUAC of <12.5cm and ﬁ nally

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 54 Issued March 7, 2007 from Mahadaay from sample of 200 children, Figure 34: Levels of acutely malnourished children from UHFRUGHGD08$& FP sentinel sites in Lower Shabelle Region, Dec • Selective Feeding Centre Data: The TFC’s in ‘05 to Dec ‘06 Mogadishu city, Hodan and Forlanini, continue 70% to report very high yet stable numbers of se- 60% verely malnourished children. A large propor- 50% WLRQRIWKHVHFKLOGUHQRULJLQDWHIURPWKH,'3 40% XUEDQSRRUSRSXODWLRQVZKHUHOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQV 30%

sanitation and access to health care are poor 20%

• Sentinel Site Data: Trends in levels of acutely 10%

malnourished children from sentinel sites in 0%

JHQHUDOFRQWLQXHWRUHSRUWORZDQGVWDEOHOHYHOV Jul06 Jul06 Jul06 Jul06 Jul06 Jul06 Jul06 Jul06 Jul06 Dec05 Dec06 Dec06 Dec06 Dec05 Dec06 Dec06 Dec05 Dec06 Dec05 Dec06 Dec05 Dec06 Dec05 Dec06 Mar06 Mar06 Mar06 Mar06 Mar06 Mar06 Mar06 Mar06 Mar06

in the most recent round conducted in December Mukaidumis Warer Kunyo Kibilil Sablale -H\URZ *ROZH\Q 5RRERZ Mungiiya ¶ZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRI*ROZH\QDQG5RR- Maleh %DUURZ Riverine Agropastoral ERZZKHUHVOLJKWLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGVKDYHEHHQ reported. • Health Information System: The levels of acutely malnourished children screened at health centre level UHPDLQORZDQGVWDEOHWKRXJKZLWKLQFUHDVLQJUHSRUWVRIVHDVRQDOGLVHDVHVVXFKDVVXVSHFWHGPDODULDDQG diarrhoea. southern somalia

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 55 Issued March 7, 2007 4.1.6 Hiran Region Map 24: Hiran Livelihood Systems Overview

The impact of the 2006/’07 Deyr season on the food security and humanitarian situation in Hiran region has had mixed impacts depending on the livelihood system: pastoral, agro-pastoral or riverine (Map 24).

Pastoral areas in Hiran, previously identiﬁ ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, are now downgraded to their usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure as the result of continuing pastoral livelihood recovery since the Gu ’06 (Map 25). Water, pasture and browse is widely available and good in most areas due to the well dis-

tributed and above normal Deyr ‘06/’07 rainfall (200-300% of long term trends). LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS Exceptions are localized pockets in Belet Weyn and Buloburti districts. Livestock RIVERINE body conditions for all species are good and high kidding and lambing is expected from February to May ’07 due to high conception in the Hagaa (Sept.-Oct.’06) and Deyr ‘06/’07 season. Map 25: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Hiran Livestock prices have increased with improved livestock conditions and terms of trade (local quality goat to rice) FSAU increased 57% from July to December ’06, and 100% from Phase Classifi cation January ’06 to December ’06. Herd sizes are considered 1 Generally Food Secure normal, as there was minimal livestock mortality and 2 Chronically Food Insecure stress sales during last year’s drought. The nutrition situa- 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis tion also shows improvements over the last six months for 4 Humanitarian Emergency 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe most rural areas and is downgraded from Serious to Alert. Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Similarly, agro-pastoral areas have also improved and are Watch Moderate Risk downgraded from the previous phase of Acute Food and High Risk Livelihood Crisis (Map 25 ). In addition to improve- Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations ments in livestock body conditions and productivity, herd NOTES: recovery, prices and terms of trade, Deyr ‘06/’07 rainfed 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are sorghum production in agro-pastoral areas was near aver- rounded to the nearest 10,000 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org age (94% of PWA) but 544% of Deyr 2005/’06. Phase Classifi cation

central somalia The humanitarian situation in riverine areas of Hiran region, however, has deteriorated signifi cantly since the Gu ’06 (previously identifi ed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis with a high risk of falling into Humanitarian Emergency). Currently, the situation has worsened with an estimated 11,000 people identifi ed in Humanitarian Emergency and another 9,000 people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (Map 25 and Table 21 and 22). These fi gures represent 100% of the poor riverine community in Humanitarian Emergency, 50% of the middle wealth group in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, and combined represent approximately 6% of the entire population of the region. This deterioration is the result of the compounding effect of three successive seasons of crop failure, followed by severe fl ooding this season. Floods in late October ’06 resulted in high numbers of population displacement (roughly estimated at 102,000 people), damage to or loss of livelihood assets, destruction of riverine crops, a reduction in agriculture labour opportunities, high cereal prices, exposure to water borne disease with recent cases of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) being reported, and a nutrition situation identifi ed as Serious (10-15%) (see Nutrition section).

Of concern are the potential implications of a restriction in livestock trade due to fears of RVF and reports of an unknown camel disease (see Livestock section), and indications of increasing tensions and insecurity in the region, with the potential for displacement, reduced access to water and grazing, and disruptions in market access (see Civil

Table 21: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Hiran.

Acute Food and Humanitarian Affected Regions and UNDP 2005 Total Total in AFLC or HE as Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE)Error! District Population1 % of Region population (AFLC)2 Bookmark not defined. Hiraan Belet Weyne/Mataban 172,049 4,000 5,000 5 Bulo Burti/Mahas 111,038 4,000 5,000 8 Jalalaqsi 46,724 1,000 1,000 4 Sub-Total 329,811 9,000 11,000 6 See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 56 Issued March 7, 2007 Table 22: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Hiran.

Hiraan Ciid Pastoral 30,126 0 0 0 Hiran riverine 32,782 9,000 11,000 61 Southern Agro-Past 136,130 0 0 0 Southern Inland Past 61,660 0 0 0 Sub-Total 260,698 9,000 11,000 8 See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes

Insecurity section). FSAU identiﬁ es all of Hiran in Watch and will closely monitor developments and their impact on food and livelihood security for all livelihood groups.

Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural capital: Most of Hiran region received cumulative rainfall of 200-250mm between Oct-Dec ‘06, which is 150-200% of long term average, with some areas in the northwest of the region receiving 200-300%. Rain gauges in Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi towns recorded totals of 277mm (Sept.-Dec.), 340mm (Oct. – Dec.), and 400mm (Oct. – Dec.) respectively. Consequently, water central somalia availability is average in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas and pasture conditions are also considered favourable in Unknown Camel Disease - Hiran, January, ‘07 all districts. The combination of these two factors has led to normal patterns of livestock migration with the region and reduced competition (and possible disputes) over natural resources. Flooding restricted access to charcoal production areas and the price of charcoal increased 16% from Dec. ’05 to Dec. 06’ (from SoSh61,500/50kg to SoSh71,250/50kg).

Physical capital: Flooding of the Shabelle river in Sep- tember and October caused displacement of an estimated 17,000 households, or 102,000 people (or 31% of the total regional population). It is estimated that over 90% of these have since returned. Flooding also led to the destruction of an estimated 10,500 hectares of planted crops, mostly maize, and led to further deterioration of the physical Submerged Village caused by Floods, Hiran - infrastructure in the riverine areas of the region, includ- Belet Weyne, November 2006 ing latrines and shallow wells. Flooding has become a seasonal occurrence due to the poor condition and maintenance of river infrastructure, such as river embankments and irrigation channels (see 2006 Post Gu Analysis, Technical series Report No. V. 9). Flooding on the main north- south tarmac road, between Mogadishu and Belet Weyne, restricted humanitarian access and the transportation of commercial goods to the region. During this period transport costs increased over 50% per 50kg bag of sugar and rice, although for Belet Weyne this was partially mitigated by a changing the source of supply from Mogadishu to Bossaso. For Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi transportation remained problematic until the ﬂ oods receded.

Social Capital: In rural areas social support systems are generally in the form of in-kind transfers such as livestock, livestock products, food and limited cash gifts. Intercommunity social support mechanisms are commonly active and still remain important in the region for fl ood displaced and non-displaced populations. However, in riverine areas social support is weakened and is considered below normal due to successive crop failures and severe fl ooding this season. In urban areas community support remains active and important. Remittance fl ows increased in response to the twin hazards of fl ooding and confl ict. In Jalalaqsi town, for example, SLIMS data (FSAU Somali Livelihoods Indicator Monitoring System) shows a 15% increase in people receiving remittances from August (pre-fl ood) to November ’06 (at the height of the fl ooding).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 57 Issued March 7, 2007 Human capital: The nutrition situation remains critical for the population in Belet Weyn District and all riverine populations and serious for the population in Buloburti and Jalalaqsi. This riverine population is currently faced ZLWKD+XPDQLWDULDQ(PHUJHQF\GXHWRWKHFKURQLFYXOQHUDELOLW\H[DFHUEDWHGE\WKHUHFHQWVHYHUHÀRRGLQJZKLFK KDVFDXVHGODUJHDVVHWORVVFURSGHVWUXFWLRQDQGH[SRVXUHWRZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHZLWKUHFHQWFDVHVRIDFXWHZDWHU\ diarrhoea (AWD) being reported.. Qualitative information suggests that attendance for formal education and Koranic VFKRROVZDVORZLQXUEDQDUHDVQRWDEO\%HOHW:H\QHGXHWRGLVSODFHPHQWDULVLQJIURPÀRRGLQJDQGGHFOLQHGIXUWKHU DIWHUWKH¿JKWLQJEHWZHHQWKH(WKLRSLDQVXSSRUWHG7)*DQG&6,&5HSRUWHGO\VLJQL¿FDQWQXPEHUVRIWKH.RUDQLF VFKRROWHDFKHUVZHUHNLOOHGGXULQJWKH¿JKWLQJZKLOHRWKHUVÀHGWRUXUDODUHDVDQGQHLJKERXULQJGLVWULFWVDIWHU(WKLRSLDQ WURRSVRFFXSLHGWKHPDLQWRZQV

Financial capital: Access to credit is limited for poor riverine households due to successive crop failures and poor agricultural labour opportunities. Average levels of debt for poor households have increased from the Gu ’06 season to Deyrµ¶IURP86WR866KRXVHKROG RU GXHWRLQFUHDVHGH[SHQGLWXUHRQDJULFXOWXUDOLQSXWVDQG the purchase of both staple and non-staple foods. This trend is expected to increase up to at least the next harvest (Gu ZKLOHGHEWLVQRWH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHIRUSDVWRUDOLVWVIROORZLQJJHQHUDOLPSURYHPHQWVLQSDVWRUDOSURGXFWLY- LW\+HUGVL]HVIRUSDVWRUDOLVWVDQGDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVKDYHUHFRYHUHGRUZLOOEHZLWKLQWKHQH[WVL[PRQWKVIROORZLQJ PLQLPDOOLYHVWRFNORVVHVHVWLPDWHGWREHXQGHUIRUVKHHSDQGJRDWVDQGFRQVLGHUDEO\OHVVWKDQWKHZRUVWDIIHFWHG UHJLRQVLQ*HGRWKH-XEDYDOOH\DQGSDUWVRI%D\DQG%DNRROGXULQJWKHGURXJKWSHULRG VHH)6$83RVWGu $QDO\VLV5HSRUW1R9

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

Generally, under normal conditions, agro-pastoral and riverine communities rely primarily (almost 50-70%) on their RZQFURSSURGXFWLRQIROORZHGE\SXUFKDVHV3DVWRUDOLVWVUHO\RQPDUNHWSXUFKDVHVVXSSOHPHQWHGZLWKRZQOLYHVWRFN SURGXFWLRQFRQVXPSWLRQ3RRUULYHULQHDJULFXOWXUDOLVWVHDUQVRPHRIWKHLULQFRPHIURPFURSVDOHV DVZHOODV employment (5-15%), self employment (25-35%) and honey production (5-1-%%). For poor pastoralists, 45-55%% of all income is derived from livestock sales and livestock product sales, 25-30% from self-employment, 5-15% from social support, and 5-15% from other sources.

Food sources: Although total cereal production for Hiran from the main agricultural season for the region is estimated WREHRI3:$ RU07 WKLVPDVNVQHDUWRWDOIDLOXUHRIFURSV PDL]HDQGVRUJKXP LQDUHDVWKDWZHUHÀRRGHG LWLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWRIFHUHDOFURSVZHUHGHVWUR\HG 7KHEXONRISURGXFWLRQKDVFRPHIURPWKHDJURSDVWRUDODUHDV RIWKHUHJLRQ7KHSURVSHFWVIRUDQHVWLPDWHGÀRRGUHFHVVLRQRIIVHDVRQKDUYHVWRI07RIPDL]H07RI VHVDPHDQG07RIFRZSHDORRNVOLPDVSHVWVKDYHDWWDFNHGFURSVDWWKHVHHGOLQJVWDJH)XUWKHUPRUHDVLJQL¿FDQW

central somalia DUHDRI KD RIYHJHWDEOHFURSV RQLRQWRPDWRJUHHQSHSSHUDQGZDWHUPHORQ ZDVGHYDVWDWHGE\WKHVDPHÀRRGV 7KLVZLOOKDYHUHSHUFXVVLRQVIRUWKHLQFRPHRIERWKPLGGOHDQGEHWWHURIIZHDOWKJURXSVLQWKHUHJLRQDQGVXEVHTXHQW HPSOR\PHQWRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUSRRUZHDOWKJURXSVLQXUEDQDQGUXUDOULYHULQHDUHDV7KLVFRPSRXQGVSUREOHPVDVVRFLDWHG ZLWKVXFFHVVLYHSUHYLRXVVHDVRQVRISRRUSURGXFWLRQ Gu µZDVDeyr ‘05/’06 16%, Gu µRI3:$

For the period September through to January, local red sorghum (moordi ZDVQRWDYDLODEOHLQ%HOHW:H\QHDQG LPSRUWHGZKLWHVRUJKXPIURP(WKLRSLDDQGUHGVRUJKXPDVIRRGDLGKDYHDFWHGDVVXEVWLWXWLRQV+RZHYHUWKLVPD\ have a disincentive effect for traders importing cereals from the current bumper harvest in Bay and Bakool. Currently, rainfed cereals (red sorghum) from Hiran and Bay and Bakool have started to arrive in regional markets decreasing SULFHVLQWKHPDUNHWSODFH VHH0DUNHW3XUFKDVH 4XDOLWDWLYHGDWDVXJJHVWVWKDWSRRUULYHULQHKRXVHKROGVUHPDLQ KHDYLO\UHOLDQWRQIRRGDLG VHH)6$84XDUWHUO\%ULHI'HFHPEHU ,QSDVWRUDODUHDVLPSURYHGUDQJHODQGV FRQGLWLRQVKDYHOHGWRVLJQL¿FDQWLPSURYHPHQWVLQOLYHVWRFNERG\FRQGLWLRQVIRUDOOVSHFLHV0LONSURGXFWLRQLVFRQ- VLGHUHGEHORZDYHUDJHGXHWRSUHYLRXVSRRUFRQFHSWLRQ LQGu ’06 and Deyrµ¶ DQGORZFDOYLQJDQGNLGGLQJ in Deyr¶+RZHYHUWKLVVLWXDWLRQLVH[SHFWHGWRLPSURYHZLWKKLJKNLGGLQJRIVKHHSDQGJRDWVLQ$SULODQG 0D\IROORZLQJKLJKFRQFHSWLRQLQWKHDeyr season.

Income opportunities: Agricultural labour, employment, self-employment, and fodder and crop sales are the main LQFRPHVRXUFHVIRUDJULFXOWXUDOLVWVDQGDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVLQWKHUHJLRQ+RZHYHUGXHWRWKHSRRUDeyr ’06/’07 season, WKHDYDLODELOLW\RIDQGWKHDFFHVVWRWKHVHLQFRPHVRXUFHVIRUSRRUULYHULQHKRXVHKROGVDUHZHOOEHORZQRUPDOHVSH- cially agricultural labour and crop. While agricultural employment opportunities for poor households improved prior WRWKHÀRRGVLQERWKDJURSDVWRUDODQGULYHULQHOLYHOLKRRG]RQHVGXHWRJRRGFURSHVWDEOLVKPHQWÀRRGLQJUHGXFHG WKHVHRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQULYHULQHDUHDVGXHWRWKHGHVWUXFWLRQRIVWDQGLQJFURSV,WZDVKRSHGWKDWRSSRUWXQLWLHVZRXOG LQFUHDVHEHWZHHQ-DQXDU\DQG0DUFKZLWKÀRRGUHFHVVLRQDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHVEXWZLWKWKHORVVRIVWDQGLQJFURSV GXHWRSHVWRXWEUHDNVWKHVHRSSRUWXQLWLHVZLOOGHFUHDVHRQFHDJDLQ&RPSHWLWLRQIRUHPSOR\PHQWPD\DOVRIXUWKHU UHGXFHWKHYDOXHRIDYDLODEOHHPSOR\PHQW,QFRPHIURPIRGGHUSURGXFWLRQLVQRWH[SHFWHGWREHVLJQL¿FDQWGXHWR WKHZLGHVSUHDGDYDLODELOLW\RISDVWXUHDQGEURZVH'HFHPEHU¶SULFHVZHUHFRQVLGHUDEO\ORZHUWKDQIRU'HFHPEHU ’05 (SoSh200/bundle compared to SoSh500/bundle).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 58 Issued March 7, 2007 For pastoralists income has increased as livestock prices for all species have improved from the low values in mid-2006. This is in line with improved body conditions in all species, though prices are declining currently following normal seasonal trends of the post high demand Ramadan and Hajj period. Livestock prices had declined from January ’06, due to deteriorating livestock body conditions. Between January’06 and July ’06, local quality cattle prices in Belet Weyne decreased 32% (from SoSh1,125,000 to SoSh760,000/head) and local goat prices declined by 25% (SoSh265,000 to SoSh198,000/head) (FSAU Market Update, August ’06). Between July ’06 and December ’06 local quality cattle prices increased by 55% (from SoSh760,000 to SoSh1,175,000/head) but declined between December and January (’07) by 27% (to SoSh860,000/head). Similarly, local quality goat prices increased by 46% between July ’06 and December ’06 (from SoSh198,000 to SoSh290,000/head) but declined between December and January by 22% (to SoSh256,000/head). There are concerns, however, that restricted livestock trade due to fears of RVF will lead to local oversupply and a reduction in prices and therefore terms of trade for pastoralists. The FSAU will continue to monitor this situation over the coming months.

Market purchase: For poor households in the riverine area own production (in this case cereal production) contributes normally 55-75% of their food sources, the remaining 30-40% comes from market purchase. As a result of crop failure there is increasing reliance on market purchase of staple foods. Access to cereal is still very strained due to the combination of destruction of Deyr 2006 riverine crops, below-normal household cereal stocks and high market cereal prices.

Although there has been a reduction in the price of red sorghum since the six year peak in June 2006 (SoSh4,150/ kg), it is still extremely high (SoSh3,000 in November). This factor is critical for poor households given the loss of riverine crop production, the high risk of off-season crop loss, and consequent reduction in income from agricultural labour opportunities. Although terms of trade in Belet Weyne (cereal kg/daily wage rate) for poor urban households (used as a proxy for rural agricultural labour TOT) has improved over recent months continuing a general trend of improvement from August 2001 (an increase of 48% from Dec. ’05 to Dec. ’06, and 64% from June ’06 to Dec. ’06) central somalia it dropped 32% between Nov. ’06 and Jan. ’07 (Figure 35). Even, as expected, cereal prices continue to decline the lack of employment opportunities and therefore income will impact seriously the ability of poor riverine households to purchase cereals until the next Gu season.

Although terms of trade for middle income pastoralists (goat to kg cereal) have reduced since the peak livestock demand period (and peak prices) of Ramadan and the Hajj, (from 408kg in Nov’ ’06 to 331kg in Jan. ’07, or 19%) they are 77% higher than for June (186kg) (Figure 36). However, the potential impact of market closures (for both livestock and chilled meat) in Yemen and the Gulf countries will need to be monitored closely as oversupply in local markets may push prices down reducing terms of trade. Figure 35: Belet Weyne: Trend Monthly Terms of Trade: Unskilled Labour to Cereal Household expenditure across all livelihoods signiﬁ - 25

cantly increased during the year due to their reliance on HIRAN TOT Labour to cereal expensive market staple cereals. Non-staple food prices 20 in the market have also increased. The price of sugar has increased from SoSh8,000/kg in Jan. ‘06 to SoSh9,200/ 15 kg in Jan. ’07 (or an increase of 15%), but reduced from a high in July of SoSh10,000/kg. Diesel prices, which 10

are very important for pump based irrigation along the kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate 5 river, increased 10%, from SoSh10,000 in Jan. ‘06 to

SoSh11,000/litre in Jan. ’07, though lower than the high 0

0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 0 -0 -0 0 -0 -0 0 -0 -0 0 -0 -0 0 -0 -0 0 -0 -0 0 in August ’06 (SoSh12,500/litre. c- r g c- r g c- r g c- r g c- r g c- r g c- e p u e p u e p u e p u e p u e p u e D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D Month Coping Strategies: In addition to the conﬂ ict and ﬂ ood Figure 36: Belet Weyne: Monthly Terms of Trade: induced displacement noted earlier (see the Climate and Local Goat to Cereal Civil Insecurity sectors) several coping strategies are 120 employed to increase access to food. Currently, these 107.58 100 97.22 98.33 98.46 94.71 include: the reduction of livestock sales to increase herd 91.38 90.03 89.23

size; increased purchase of food on credit; increasing 80 78.74 78.33

66.67 reliance on food aid; support or gifts from the relatives 62.50 60 61.11 and friends; the purchase of poor quality and cheap 43.86 sorghum (including food aid); increasing income from 40 milk sales and the substitution of cheap cereals; and, an

kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate 20 increasing numbers of the people seeking income through HIRAN TOT Local Goat to cereal agricultural employment, including children, though the 0 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 6 0 7 0 - -0 - -0 - - l- - -0 - 0 - -0 c- n b r r y n g p ct v- c- n b availability of opportunities is a limiting factor. e e a p a Ju u e o e e D Ja F M A M Ju A S O N D Ja F Month

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 59 Issued March 7, 2007 Nutrition Situation

7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV

x Rapid MUAC Assessment:$UDSLG08$&DVVHVVPHQWZDVFRQGXFWHGLQULYHULQHYLOODJHVLQ'HFHPEHU 4 villages each in Belet Weyn, Buloburti and Jalalaqsi Districts of children 1-5yrs. In Belet Weyn districts IURPDVDPSOHRIFKLOGUHQRIFKLOGUHQZHUHUHSRUWHGZLWK08$& FPLQ%XOREXUWLRXWRI DVDPSOHFKLOGUHQDOVRRIFKLOGUHQZHUHUHSRUWHGZLWK08$& FPLQ-DODODTVLWKHQXPEHUV ZHUHORZHUDWRIFKLOGUHQZLWKD08$&RI FPIURPVDPSOHRIFKLOGUHQ x Selective Feeding Centre Data: Trends in admissions of moderately malnourished children in Belet Weyn WRZQVXSSOHPHQWDU\IHHGLQJFHQWUHUHPDLQKLJKDQGVWDEOH x Health Information System: The levels of acutely malnourished children screened at health centre level UHPDLQVKLJKDQGLQFUHDVLQJLQ%HOHW:H\QGLVWULFWVLQSDUDOOHOZLWKKLJKHUOHYHOVRIDFXWHZDWHUGLDUUKRHD EHLQJUHSRUWHGSRVVLEOHOLQNHGWRWKHUHFHQWÀRRGLQJLQWKHDUHDV7KHOHYHOVRIDFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQ DWKHDOWKFHQWUHOHYHOLQWKHRWKHUQRQULYHULQHDUHDVRI+LUDQUHPDLQORZHUDQGGHFUHDVLQJ x Sentinel Site Data: The most recent round of sentinel site surveillance in the non riverine populations in Hiran in August ‘06 indicated high and stable levels of acutely malnourished children. central somalia

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 60 Issued March 7, 2007 4.2 CENTRAL REGION

Map 26: Central Region: Overview Livelihood Systems

3DVWRUDODUHDVLQ*DOJDGXXGDQGVRXWKHUQ0XGXJ 0DS SUHYLRXVO\LGHQWL¿HG in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, DQHVWLPDWHGSHRSOHDUHQRZGRZQ- graded to their usual phase of Chronically Food Insecure as the result of continuing pastoral livelihood recovery since the Gu ’06 (Map 26 & 27 ). Water, pasture and EURZVHLVZLGHO\DYDLODEOHDQGJRRGLQPRVWDUHDVGXHWRWKHZHOOGLVWULEXWHGDQG above normal Deyr ‘06/’07 rainfall (200-300% of long term trends). Exceptions DUHORFDOL]HGSRFNHWVLQ$GDGR'KXVDPDUHEDQGVRPHFRDVWDODUHDVRI*DOJDGXXG district. Livestock body conditions for all species are good and high kidding and lambing is expected from February to May ’07 due to high conception in the Hagaa (Sept.-Oct.’06) and Deyrµ¶VHDVRQZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIORZFDOYLQJUDWHVIRU big ruminants in east and south Mudug. Livestock prices have increased in Central UHJLRQVZLWKLPSURYHGOLYHVWRFNFRQGLWLRQVDQGWHUPVRIWUDGH ORFDOTXDOLW\JRDW WRULFH LQFUHDVHGIURP-XO\WR'HF¶+HUGVL]HVDUHFRQVLGHUHGQRUPDODV WKHUHZDVPLQLPDOOLYHVWRFNPRUWDOLW\DQGVWUHVVVDOHVGXULQJODVW\HDU¶VGURXJKW Insecurity is considered to have had limited direct impact on pastoral production during the DeyrVHDVRQ VHH&RQÀLFW6HFWLRQ

7KHQXWULWLRQVLWXDWLRQDOVRVKRZVLPSURYHPHQWVRYHUWKH 0DS)RRG6HFXULW\3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ ODVWVL[PRQWKVIRUPRVWUXUDODUHDVDQGLVGRZQJUDGHG Central Region from Serious to Alert (Map 15). Of concern are reports FSAU RIDQXQNQRZQFDPHOGLVHDVH VHH/LYHVWRFNVHFWLRQ 3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ central somalia and indications of increasing tensions and insecurity in 1 Generally Food Secure WKHUHJLRQZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUGLVSODFHPHQWUHGXFHG 2 Chronically Food Insecure DFFHVVWRZDWHUDQGJUD]LQJDQGGLVUXSWLRQVLQPDUNHW 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis DFFHVV VHH&LYLO,QVHFXULW\VHFWLRQ )6$8LGHQWL¿HVWKH 4 Humanitarian Emergency area in Watch DQGZLOOFORVHO\PRQLWRUGHYHORSPHQWVDQG 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe their impact on food and livelihood security. (DUO\:DUQLQJ/HYHOVIRUZRUVHQLQJ3KDVH Watch Moderate Risk High Risk Effects on Livelihood Assets Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations

Natural capital: Most of Galgaduud and south Mudug NOTES: 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are UHFHLYHGFXPXODWLYHUDLQIDOORIPPEHWZHHQ rounded to the nearest 10,000 2FWREHUDQG'HFHPEHU¶ZKLFKLVRIORQJ 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org 3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ WHUPDYHUDJHZLWKVRPHDUHDVUHFHLYLQJRIORQJ WHUPDYHUDJH5DLQVZHUHJHQHUDOO\ZHOOGLVWULEXWHGZLWK WKHH[FHSWLRQRIFRDVWDODUHDVZKHUHUDLQVZHUHORFDOL]HG3DVWXUHDQGEURZVHFRQGLWLRQVDUHJRRGDVFRQ¿UPHGE\ ERWKVDWHOOLWHLPDJHU\ 1RUPDOLVHG'LIIHUHQFH9HJHWDWLRQ,QGH[ DQGJURXQGWUXWKLQJE\WKH)6$8¿HOGDVVHVVPHQW 6DWHOOLWHLPDJHU\ 1'9, IRUWKHODVWGHNDGRI'HFHPEHUVKRZVUDQJHODQGFRQGLWLRQVDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKH ORQJWHUPDYHUDJHDQGLQVRPHDUHDVZHUHDERYHWKHORQJWHUPWUHQGVRURIDYHUDJH ¶ $OWKRXJKUDLQV ZHUHJHQHUDOO\ZHOOGLVWULEXWHGLQ¿OWUDWLRQZDVKLJKZLWKOLPLWHGUXQRII1DWXUDOZDWHUFDWFKPHQWVDQGEHUNDGVDUH WKHUHIRUHQRWFRPSOHWHO\UHSOHQLVKHGDQGZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\LQEHUNDGGHSHQGHQWDUHDVZLOOQHHGFORVHPRQLWRULQJRYHU WKHFRPLQJPRQWKV+RZHYHUOLYHVWRFNPLJUDWLRQLVFRQVLGHUHGQRUPDOZLWKLQWKHUHJLRQ VHH/LYHVWRFN6HFWLRQ

Physical capital: Roads and basic transport infrastructure are in poor condition and continue to deteriorate due to lack RIUHKDELOLWDWLRQLQWKHODVWWZRGHFDGHVPDNLQJWKHFHQWUDOUHJLRQRQHRIWKHPRVWLVRODWHG7KHHQFURDFKPHQWRIVDQG dunes in the coastal areas of Haradhere and Eldheer districts restricts transportation having a negative impact on the supply of imported commodities. The main tarmac road that links the central regions to Galkacyo, Hiran, and Moga- dishu is currently experiencing a resurgence and increase in the number of informal ‘taxed’ roadblocks. This further compounds problems of isolation and poor access leading to imported commodity prices that are consistently higher than for other regions close to the port of entry. For example, the price of imported rice in Dhusamareeb for January ’07 is 29%, 53% and 32% higher than for Hargeisa, Bossaso and Marka respectively. Similarly, the price of sugar in Dhusamareeb for January ’07 is 13%, 16% and 20% higher than for Hargeisa, Bossaso and Marka respectively.

Social capital: Social support systems are generally in the form of in-kind transfers of gifts, such as livestock, milk, FRZSHDVDQGFDVK UHPLWWDQFHV 'XHWRLPSURYLQJOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLYLW\VRFLDOVXSSRUW kaalmo, irmansi and amah) among pastoralists is strengthening but remains important in the area especially for the poor in the region and for pockets of displaced in several urban areas (see Coping Strategies).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 61 Issued March 7, 2007 Human capital: Information suggests that attendance for Koranic schools in the region has declined in recent months. 6/,06GDWDIRU*DGRQYLOODJHLQ'KXVDPDUHHEGLVWULFWVKRZV a decline in total attendance from 45 children in June ’06 (33 boys and 12 girls) to 26 in January ’07 (19 boys and 7 girls). In +DUDGKHHUHWRZQQXPEHUVIRUWKHVDPHSHULRGKDYHGHFOLQHG from a total of 44 children (29 boys and 15 girls) to 34 (26 ER\VDQGJLUOV 7KLVLVSRVVLEO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH¿JKWLQJ EHWZHHQWKH(WKLRSLDQVXSSRUWHG7)*DQG&6,&LQWKHUHJLRQ DQGUHSRUWVVXJJHVWLQJWKDWVLJQL¿FDQWQXPEHUVRI.RUDQLF VFKRROWHDFKHUVZHUHNLOOHGGXULQJWKH¿JKWLQJZKLOHRWKHUV ÀHGWRUXUDODUHDVDQGQHLJKERXULQJGLVWULFWVDIWHU(WKLRSLDQ WURRSVRFFXSLHGWKHPDLQWRZQV The overall nutrition situ- Encroachment of Sand Dunes, Haradheere, Dec ‘06. ation remains seriousZLWKSRFNHWVRIcriticalZKHUHXSWR GDWHQXWULWLRQGDWDKDVLQGLFDWHGORFDOLVHGDUHDVRIFRQFHUQSRVVLEO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKGLDUUKRHDORXWEUHDNV+LJKPRUELGLW\ OHYHOVVWLOOUHPDLQDNH\FRQWULEXWLQJIDFWRUWRPDOQXWULWLRQOHYHOVLQWKHDUHD VHH1XWULWLRQVLWXDWLRQEHORZIRUGHWDLOV

Financial capital: +HUGVL]HVIRUSDVWRUDOLVWVKDYHUHFRYHUHGRUZLOOKDYHZLWKLQWKHQH[WVL[PRQWKVIROORZLQJPLQLPDO losses in sheep and goat and cattle holdings (up to -5%) during the period April ‘05 to March ’06. Although conceptions for DOOVSHFLHVZHUHORZGXULQJGu ’06 conceptions for Deyr¶ZHUHKLJKIRUDOOVSHFLHV/RZOHYHOVRIFDOYLQJDUHH[SHFWHG IRUFDPHOVLQ$SULO0D\DQGFDWWOHLQ)HEUXDU\0DUFK GXHWRORZFRQFHSWLRQLQGu¶ +RZHYHUNLGGLQJRIVKHHSDQG goats is expected to be high in March-April due to high rates of conception during the Deyr ‘06/’07. Qualitative data sug- JHVWVWKDWGHEWOHYHOVDPRQJSDVWRUDOLVWVKDYHUHGXFHGGXULQJWKHSHULRG-XO\WR'HFHPEHU¶&DVHVRIDQXQNQRZQFDPHO GLVHDVHKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGLQWKHFURVVERUGHUDUHDVRI=RQH9(WKLRSLDDQG+HUDDOHYLOODJHRI$EXGZDTGLVWULFW

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

8QGHUVWDQGLQJWKHPDLQVRXUFHVRIIRRGDQGLQFRPHLVLPSRUWDQWLQLGHQWLI\LQJWKHRYHUDOOLPSDFWRIGLIIHUHQWKD]DUGVRQ IRRGDQGOLYHOLKRRGVHFXULW\8QGHUQRUPDOFRQGLWLRQVDOOSDVWRUDOLVWVLQWKLVUHJLRQLUUHVSHFWLYHRIWKHLUZHDOWKJURXSVUHO\ RQOLYHVWRFNDQGOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWVDOHVIRULQFRPHJHQHUDWLRQ 7KHH[FHSWLRQLVWKHSRRUZHDOWKJURXSVZKRVH livestock income (35-45%) is supplemented by self-employment and employment (40-50%). All pastoralists purchase PRVWRIWKHLUIRRGQHHGVZKLFKFRQVLVWPRVWO\RIULFHRUVRUJKXPVXJDUDQGRLO7KHFRQVXPSWLRQRIWKHLURZQOLYHVWRFN SURGXFWV PHDWJKHHDQGPLON PDNHVXSWKHEDODQFHRIWKHLUIRRGQHHGV VHH)6$8%DVHOLQH3UR¿OHV

Food sources:)RUSDVWRUDOLVWVWKHPDLQVRXUFHRIIRRGLVPDUNHWFHUHDOVPDLQO\ULFHDQGVRUJKXPZKLFKWKH\SXUFKDVH

central somalia by selling livestock (mainly sheep and goats) and livestock products (milk and ghee). In general, the availability of camel, DQGVKHHSDQGJRDWPLONLQSDVWRUDODUHDVLVFXUUHQWO\EHORZDYHUDJHGXHWRSRRUFRQFHSWLRQLQDeyr ‘05/’06 (camel) and Guµ VKHHSJRDW DQGORZNLGGLQJDQGFDOYLQJLQDeyrµ+RZHYHUPHGLXPWRKLJKVKHHSDQGJRDWPLON SURGXFWLRQLVH[SHFWHGLQ$SULO-XQHµIROORZLQJPHGLXPWRKLJKFRQFHSWLRQRIVKHHSDQGJRDWVLQDeyr ‘06/’07. The availability of camel milk is only expected to increase from next Deyr¶¶

Income opportunities: ,QFRPHIRUSRRUDQGPLGGOHZHDOWKSDVWRUDOLVWVLVH[SHFWHGWRUHPDLQVWDEOHRYHUWKHFRPLQJ months. Local quality sheep and goat prices increased 43% from July ’06 to Dec. ’06, but prices are dropped in Janu- DU\IROORZLQJQRUPDOVHDVRQDOWUHQGV WR6R6KKHDGRUDGHFUHDVHRI 3DVWRUDOLVWVEHQH¿WHGIURPWKHSHDN VKHHSJRDWH[SRUWGHPDQGVHDVRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH5DPDGDQ+DMMLQ'HF¶DQG-DQ¶ H[SRUWHGWKURXJK%RVVDVR 3RUW 3ULFHVLQ-DQXDU\µDUHVWLOOWKRXJKKLJKHUWKDQIRU-DQXDU\¶6LPLODUO\H[SRUWTXDOLW\VKHHSJRDWSULFHV LQFUHDVHGEHWZHHQ-XO\¶DQG'HF¶DQGZHUHDOVRKLJKHUWKDQ'HF¶EXWKDYHDOVRGHFUHDVHGEHWZHHQ 'HF¶DQG-DQXDU\¶ IURP6R6KWR6R6KKHDGDGHFUHDVHRI 3ULFHVLQ-DQXDU\¶DUH KLJKHUWKDQIRU-DQXDU\¶,Q-DQXDU\¶H[SRUWTXDOLW\VKHHSJRDWSULFHVZHUHKLJKHUWKDQORFDOTXDOLW\VKHHS DQGJRDWSULFHVLQ-DQXDU\¶ 6R6KFRPSDUHGWR6R6KKHDG $OWKRXJKFDPHOPLONDYDLODELOLW\LVORZ LWLVDYDLODEOHLQWKHPDUNHWDQGVXSSO\KDVLPSURYHGVLQFH-DQXDU\¶,Q$EXGZDTWKLVLVUHÀHFWHGLQDGHFUHDVHLQ price from SoS15,500 in January ’06 to Sosh7,000/litre in January ’07.

Market purchase: The main source of food for pastoralists is the market purchase of cereals, primarily imported rice, IURPWKHVDOHRIVKHHSJRDWV&HUHDOLVDYDLODEOHLQWKHPDUNHWVDQGSDVWRUDOLVWVEHQH¿WHGIURPWKHSHDNOLYHVWRFNGHPDQG SHULRGDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH5DPDGDQDQGWKH+DMMGXULQJZKLFKWLPHWKH\WUDGHGH[SRUWTXDOLW\VKHHSJRDWIRUULFH7RWDO VKHHSJRDWVH[SRUWHGIURP%RVVDVRIURP-DQ¶WR'HF¶ZHUHPLOOLRQKHDGVRIVKHHSJRDWVRIZKLFKVRPHFRPH IURP&HQWUDO5HJLRQ,PSRUWHGUHGULFHSULFHVIRU&HQWUDO5HJLRQUHPDLQHGIDLUO\VWDEOHEHWZHHQ-XO\¶WR-DQXDU\¶ DQGDUHFXUUHQWO\ -DQXDU\¶ RQO\KLJKHUWKDQWKH\ZHUHODVW\HDU -DQXDU\¶ ,Q$EXGZDTWKH\DUHDFWXDOO\ ORZHUIRUWKHVDPHSHULRG5LFHSULFHVDUHFXUUHQWO\KLJKFRPSDUHGWRODVW¿YH\HDUVKRZHYHUWKH\DUHFORVHO\OLQNHGZLWK H[SRUWTXDOLW\VKHHSJRDWSULFHVZKLFKKDYHDOVRLQFUHDVHGGXULQJWKLVVDPHSHULRG6RUJKXPSULFHVGHFUHDVHGEHWZHHQ -XO\¶DQG-DQXDU\¶E\ IURP6R6KWR6R6KNJ DQG-DQXDU\¶SULFHVDUHORZHUWKDQ-DQXDU\

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 62 Issued March 7, 2007 ¶ 6R6KNJ 3ULFHVDUHH[SHFWHGWRGHFOLQHIXUWKHUDVFHUHDOVDUULYHLQWKHUHJLRQDOPDUNHWVIURPWKH+LJK3RWHQ- WLDOSURGXFWLRQDUHDVRI%D\UHJLRQZKHUHSURGXFWLRQZDVRI3:$ VHH%D\DQG%DNRRO 3ULFHVLQFHQWUDOUHJLRQ ZLOOUHPDLQKLJKHUWKDQWKRVHLQWKH6RUJKXP%HOWGXHWRWKHDGGLWLRQDOWUDQVSRUWDWLRQFRVWV VHH3K\VLFDO&DSLWDO /RFDO FRZSHDDYDLODELOLW\LVFRQVLGHUHGEHORZQRUPDOLQWKHPDUNHW7KHDYHUDJHFRZSHDSULFH ORFDOPDUNHWV IRU'HFHPEHU 2006 is considered high (SShs6,750/kg compared to a seasonal average in December of SShs4,000/kg). This may impact SRRUSDVWRUDOLVWVDQGZLOOQHHGFORVHPRQLWRULQJ

3XUFKDVLQJSRZHURUWHUPVRIWUDGH VKHHSDQGJRDWVWRFHUHDO IRUSDVWRUDOLVWVKDVLPSURYHGIURPWKHGu 2006 season as livestock body conditions and livestock prices have improved. During the same period the prices of red sorghum (from the Sorghum Belt and Ethiopia) and imported red rice have remained stable. Terms of trade (export quality goat/rice) increased IURP-XO\WR'HFHPEHU¶DQGFXUUHQW -DQXDU\¶ WHUPVRIWUDGHDUHVOLJKWO\EHWWHUWKDQ-DQXDU\µ NJ FRPSDUHGWRNJ 7HUPVRIWUDGHKRZHYHUKDYHVWHDGLO\LQFUHDVHGVLQFHWKHOLYHVWRFNEDQDQGWHUPVRIWUDGH LQ'HFHPEHU¶ZDVEHWWHUWKDQIRU'HFHPEHU¶7HUPVRIWUDGHLQ$EXGZDN ORFDOTXDOLW\JRDWWRULFH LQFUHDVHG EHWZHHQ-XO\WR'HFHPEHU¶DQGLQFUHDVHGIURP-DQXDU\µWR'HFHPEHUµ IURPNJWRNJ Similarly, for Dhusamareeb terms of trade for local quality goat to kg cereal increased from June 2006 to December 2006 NJWRNJRU $OWKRXJKWHUPVRIWUDGH H[SRUWTXDOLW\JRDWULFH DUHH[SHFWHGWRGHFOLQHIROORZLQJQRUPDO seasonal demand trends, terms of trade (local quality goat/rice) are not expected to decline over the coming four months DVOLYHVWRFNERG\FRQGLWLRQVZLOOUHPDLQJRRGDQGORFDOGHPDQGIRUOLYHVWRFNFRQVWDQW

7KHSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWVRILQFUHDVLQJLQVHFXULW\LQWKHUHJLRQZKLFKPD\LQFOXGHGLVUXSWLRQVWRPDUNHWDFFHVVDQGLQFUHDVHGSULFHV RILPSRUWHGFRPPRGLWLHV LQFOXGLQJVRUJKXP DQGGHFUHDVHGWHUPVRIWUDGHZLOOQHHGFORVHPRQLWRULQJLQWKHFRPLQJPRQWKV VHH Insecurity Section). Sugar prices have remained relatively stable since the Gu 2006 season in the markets of Dhusamareeb and $EXGZDTWKRXJKSULFHVDUHVXEVWDQWLDOO\GLIIHUHQW 66KVNJDQG66KVNJUHVSHFWLYHO\ 'LHVHOSULFHVLQ$EXGZDT DQG'KXVDPDUHHERYHUWKHSUHYLRXVVL[PRQWKVKDYHEHHQÀXFWXDWLQJEHWZHHQ66KVOLWUHDQG66KVOLWUH

Coping strategies: 'XULQJWKHPDLQFRQÀLFWSHULRGLQ'HFHPEHU¶FRQÀLFWLQGXFHGGLVSODFHPHQWWRRNSODFHIURPD QXPEHURIXUEDQFHQWUHVLQWKHUHJLRQLQFOXGLQJ*HOLQVVRU%DQGDULLGOH\%DODQEDOHDQG'KXVDPDUHHE VHH&RQÀLFW central somalia 6HFWLRQ 0RVWRIWKLVZDVVKRUWWHUPDQGIURPXUEDQWRUXUDODUHDV,WLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWPRVWRIWKHQHZO\GLVSODFHGKDYH UHWXUQHG/RQJHUWHUP,'36DUHVWLOOSUHVHQWLQWKHGLVWULFWVRI+RE\R&HHO%XXU$GDDGRDQG+DUDGKHHUH,ILQVHFXULW\ LQFUHDVHVLQFOXGLQJORFDOL]HGFODQFRQÀLFWVWKHQXPEHUVRIGLVSODFHGLVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHDJDLQ

Nutrition Situation Figure 37: Levels of Acutely Malnourished Children in the Due to insecurity, the availability of up to date nutrition Sentinel Sites in South Mudug Region information from Galgadud and South Mudug remains a 70% FKDOOHQJHKRZHYHUWKHH[LVWLQJDYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQKDV 60% indicated some improvement in the nutrition situation. The 50% overall nutrition situation remains seriousZLWKSRFNHWVRI 40% criticalZKHUHXSWRGDWHQXWULWLRQGDWDKDVLQGLFDWHGORFDO- 30% LVHGDUHDVRIFRQFHUQSRVVLEO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKGLDUUKRHDO 20% outbreaks. High morbidity levels still remain as a key con- 10% tributing factor to malnutrition levels in the area. 0% 7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV Jul06 Jul06 Jul06 Oct05 Jan06 Oct05 Jan06 Nov06 Nov06 Nov06 Dec05 Dec05 x Sentinel Site Data: Trends in levels of acutely Bacadweyn Caad Ceel Huur malnourished children from the sentinel site data Agropastoral Coastal Deeh LQGLFDWHVORZDQGVWDEOHQXPEHUVLQWKHDJURSDVWR- UDO]RQHVDQGYHU\ORZOHYHOVLQWKH&RDVWDO'HHK DVLOOXVWUDWHG:LWKLQWKH+DZGDQG$GGXQSDVWRUDO )LJXUH7HUPVRI7UDGHLQ&HQWUDO5HJLRQ5LFHWR /RFDO*RDW area high or slight deterioration in levels of acutely PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQZHUHQRWHGLQVSHFL¿FVLWHV $EXGZDT Dhusamareb Heraale, Waberi and Elhere. Dietary diversity also 70.00 Galkayo

remains good in most sites. 60.00 x Selective Feeding Centre Data: Trends in admissions 50.00 of severely malnourished children from Galgadud LQGLFDWHORZEXWLQFUHDVLQJDGPLVVLRQVRYHUWKHSDVW 40.00 WKUHHPRQWKVSRVVLEO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDQLQFUHDVHLQ 30.00

diarrhoeal cases being reported in the area. Kgs of Rice per 1 Head Local Goat 20.00

x Health Information System: The levels of acutely 10.00

malnourished children screened at health centre 0.00

9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OHYHOUHPDLQVJHQHUDOO\ORZZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQ - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - Q XO n u n u n u n u n u n u n u n u n -D - Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja RI*HOOLQVRRUZKHUHOHYHOVKDYHLQFUHDVHGIURP Month/Year October to December.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 63 Issued March 7, 2007 4.3 NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST

Overview Map 28: North and Central Regions: Livelihood Systems 3DVWRUDODUHDVRIWKHQRUWKZHVWDQGQRUWKHDVWKDYHH[SHULHQFHGJUDGXDOEXWVLJQL¿- FDQWUHFRYHU\IURPWKHGURXJKWRIIRURYHU¿YHVHDVRQV$VDUHVXOWWKH SDVWRUDODUHDVRIWKH+DZG6RRO3ODWHDXDQG1XJDO9DOOH\SUHYLRXVO\LGHQWL¿HGLQ Humanitarian Emergency (Gu ‘03 to Guµ DQGWKHQGRZQJUDGHGWR$FXWH)RRG and Livelihood Crisis (Deyr ‘04/05 to Gu µ DUHQRZLGHQWL¿HGDVUHFRYHUHGDQG DUHFODVVL¿HGDVChronically Food Insecure 0DS 3DVWRUDODUHDVRI&RDVWDO 'HHKDQG*DJDDEDUHDOVRGRZQJUDGHGIURP$FXWH)RRGDQG/LYHOLKRRG&ULVLV IROORZLQJLPSURYHPHQWVRYHUWKHODVWWZRVHDVRQV 0DS

,QDOOEXWORFDOLVHGSRFNHWV LQHDVWHUQ6DQDDJDQGWKHDUHDEHWZHHQ*DURZHDQG -DULEDQGLVWULFWVZKHUHUDLQVZHUHEHORZQRUPDO ZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\DQGUDQJHODQG LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS Pastoral FRQGLWLRQVDUHJRRGIROORZLQJDeyr µ¶UDLQVZKLFKZHUHDERYH Agro-Pastoral Fishing normal for the season. Livestock body conditions, productivity and milk production DUHJRRGIRUDOOVSHFLHVDQGOLYHVWRFNKHUGVL]HVDUHQRZJHQHUDOO\DWSUHGURXJKW OHYHOV'LVSHUVHGFDVHVRIDQXQLGHQWL¿HGFDPHOGLVHDVHRULJLQDWLQJ IURP(WKLRSLDKDYHOHGWRVRPHORFDOL]HGUDWHVRIFDPHO 0DS)RRG6HFXULW\3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ1RUWK PRUWDOLW\RILQWKH1XJDO9DOOH\DQG+DZGSDV- FSAU WRUDODUHDVDVZHOODVRWKHUDUHDVLQFHQWUDODQGVRXWKHUQ 3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ UHJLRQV VHH/LYHVWRFN6HFWLRQ ,QOLQHZLWKLPSURYHG 1 Generally Food Secure livestock body conditions and increased local and export 2 Chronically Food Insecure demand, livestock prices and terms of trade have improved 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis DVZHOO3DVWRUDOLVWVKDYHEHQH¿WHGIURPDVLJQL¿FDQWO\ 4 Humanitarian Emergency LPSURYHGOLYHVWRFNH[SRUWPDUNHWLQZKLFKH[SRUWVDUH 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe (DUO\:DUQLQJ/HYHOVIRUZRUVHQLQJ3KDVH QRZFRPSDUDEOHWRSHDNSUHOLYHVWRFNEDQOHYHOV Watch (see Livestock section). Moderate Risk High Risk Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs The prices of both export and local quality sheep and goats Areas with IDP Concentrations have improved steadily from July/August increasing in NOTES: YDOXHZLWKLQFUHDVLQJGHPDQGDQGLPSURYHGERG\FRQGL- 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are rounded to the nearest 10,000 WLRQVDQGDUHFRQVLGHUDEO\DERYHOHYHOVVKRZLQJD 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org continuous and steady increasing trend in the intervening 3KDVH&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ years. At the same time over the year, rice prices remained relatively stable leading to improved terms of trade (sheep/ goats to rice). Gulf States importing livestock and chilled meat began returning shipments to Somalia in an informal OLYHVWRFNEDQIURPHDUO\)HEUXDU\IROORZLQJWKHFRQ¿UPHG59)RXWEUHDNLQQRUWKHDVWHUQ.HQ\D$OWKRXJKWKLVZLOO impact negatively on pastoralists if the ban is enforced over several months, its impact on pastoral food security in northeast and northwest somalia WKHLPPHGLDWHWHUPLVOLPLWHGHVSHFLDOO\DVSDVWRUDOLVWVKDYHMXVWEHQH¿WHGIURPWKHSHDNH[SRUWVHDVRQ 2FW±-DQ ZLWKKLJKWHUPVRIWUDGH,QDGGLWLRQWRLPSURYHPHQWVLQOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLYLW\DJURSDVWRUDOLVWVLQWKHQRUWKZHVW EHQH¿WHGIURP*X.DUDQWRWDOFURSSURGXFWLRQRIPWZKLFKZDVDERYHWKHVHDVRQDOSRVWZDUDYHUDJH ,QFRPHIURP¿VKLQJLQWKHFRDVWDOQRUWKHDVWHUQDUHDVKDVDOVRLPSURYHGIRUWKH¿UVWWLPHVLQFHWKHWVXQDPLRI and frankincense production and trade in the Gagaab highland areas has also improved.

1XWULWLRQLQGLFDWRUVDOVRVLJQLI\VLJQL¿FDQWLPSURYHPHQWVLQWKHDUHDVSUHYLRXVO\LGHQWL¿HGLQAcute Food and Livelihood CrisisZLWKQXWULWLRQVLWXDWLRQQRZRQO\DWAlertZKLFKLVDQLPSURYHPHQWRYHUWKHORQJWHUPQXWULWLRQ WUHQGVIRUWKHDUHD 6HULRXV 0DSDQG1XWULWLRQ6HFWLRQ DQGPRVWKRXVHKROGVKDYHLPSURYHGGLHWDU\GLYHUVLW\ FRQVXPLQJIRXURUPRUHIRRGJURXSV )6$81XWULWLRQ8SGDWH-DQXDU\

)6$8IXUWKHULGHQWL¿HVSDUWRI7RJGKHHU6DQDJDQG%DULDQGPRVWRI6RRO1XJDODQG0XGXJUHJLRQVZLWKDQWarning Level of Watch 0DS ZKLFKUHTXLUHFORVHPRQLWRULQJRYHUWKHQH[WVL[PRQWKVIRUWKHVSUHDGDQGLPSDFWRIWKH XQNQRZQFDPHOGLVHDVHDQGWKHHQIRUFHPHQWRIWKHOLYHVWRFNEDQDQGLWVLPSDFWRQIRRGDQGOLYHOLKRRGVHFXULW\

Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: Due to above normal and extended seasonal rains (200-300% of long-term cumulative mean and IURP6HSWHPEHUWRHDUO\-DQXDU\LQVRPHFRDVWDODUHDV UDQJHODQGFRQGLWLRQVDQGZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\LPSURYHGFRQVLG- HUDEO\ZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIORFDOL]HGDUHDVLQHDVWHUQ6DQDDJUHJLRQ 'KDKDU%DOLEXVOH.DODGKDFDDQG6LEDD\R VRXWKDQGVRXWKHDVWHUQDUHDVRI*DURZHGLVWULFW &HHO:HFDVHOHG$ZU&XOXVDQG4DU[LV DQGQRUWKHUQ-DULEDQGLV-

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 64 Issued March 7, 2007 Figure 39: Northeast: Trend in Imported Commodity Figure 40: Northwest: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate Prices compared to Exchange Rate

30000 9,000 PETROL 1 Litre PETROL 1 Litre

8,000 25000 RED RICE 1 Kg RED RICE 1 Kg

7,000 SUGAR SUGAR 1 Kg

20000 VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre VEGETABLE OIL IMPORTED 6,000 1 Litre SOMALILAND SHILLINGS 5,000 PER DOLLAR 15000 SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR

4,000 Price per Unit (SLSH) Price per Unit (SOSH) 10000 3,000

5000 2,000

1,000 0

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - n u n u n u n u n u n u n u n u n u n a J a J a J a J a J a J a J a J a J a 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 J J J J J J J J J J -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a Month J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J Month trict (Lebilamane and Wargadud) which received below normal rains (40-80% of long-term cumulative mean) (see Climate Section). Unusual seasonal livestock migration was reported during the Deyr season from eastern Sanaag to Nugal Valley (see Livestock Section). Pastoralists in the northeast and northwest somalia Hawd of Hargeisa that moved across the border to Ethiopia during the Gu ‘06 season returned to their home areas in September ‘06 due to extended Karan rains received in these areas (see FSAU, 2006 Post Gu Analysis, Technical Series Report No. V., 9). Compared to a long term mean (1998-2005), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in January ’07 for the pastoral areas of Sanag and Nugal is in line with normal seasonal long term trends.

Charcoal production for household consumption and local Charcoal Production continues in some Parts of sales by the poor pastoralists has declined in many areas Sool, Dec ‘06 of the Hawd due to continuing improvements in livestock productivity and therefore income. In Sool, however, although the pastoralist community with the help of some local NGOs and district authorities in the area has recently imposed strict rules on this activity, charcoal production continues. Furthermore, private enclosures continue to emerge, and are noted in the Hawd of Mudug region and Sool of Qardho district in addition to those in the Hawd of Togdheer and Hargeisa that have been reported before (see FSAU, 2005/06 Post Deyr Analysis, Technical Series Report No. IV., 8).

Physical Capital: Water storage capacity in most parts of Hawd, particularly in the Hawd of Togdheer, has declined over several seasons due to poor maintenance. In contrast, berkad proliferation continues in other parts of Hawd, for example in the western sector of Burtinle district along the Ethiopian border (Cagaarweyne) increasing competition for resources (and consequently) insecurity in the area.

Social Capital: The pastoral recovery in the northeast and northwest has continued to reduce the reliance of poor households on social support. Households have good access to milk and animals for sale to purchase food needs. How- ever, traditional social support, including access to credit (dhaan, irmaansi and qardaysi) and religious gifts (kaalmo and Zakaat) remains relevant for very poor pastoral households and urban poor community. Currently poor pastoral households in the Hawd and parts of Addun are receiving free water from berkad owning relatives and friends.

Human Capital: A summary of the nutrition situation shows signifi cant improvement in the northeast and northwest zones over the past three rainy seasons, though still with pockets of concern in the northeastern part of Bari region. The nutrition situation for most of the northeast is classifi ed as Alert, with areas of Serious in the most north-eastern areas of Bari region and Critical for the IDP’s in Bossaso linked to the access and availability of basic services. The nutrition situation for the northwest is classifi ed as Alert. Although no recent information is available on the IDP populations in Hargeisa, Berbera and Burao, from previous analysis (March ‘06) they have been shown to be nutritionally vulnerable therefore there is a risk that their nutrition situation may be worse. However, until more recent nutrition information is available they will be classifi ed with the other main livelihoods. For a more comprehensive analysis of the nutrition situation see the Nutrition Section. Access to primary and secondary schooling for pastoral households in both the northwest and northeast remains limited, as either attendance is limited due to the inability to pay school fees or there are few or no schools in pastoral areas. Poor basic health care exists in all the pastoral areas.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 65 Issued March 7, 2007 Financial Capital: In general as livestock productivity has improved debt levels have declined across the QRUWKZHVWDQGQRUWKHDVW7KHGHFOLQHLQDYHUDJHOHYHOVRI household debt (especially for poor households) continues this season as income has increased due to improved ac- FHVVWRPLONIRUVDOHFRPELQHGZLWKLQFUHDVLQJOLYHVWRFN prices (see Income Section).

/LYHVWRFNKHUGVL]HIRUDOOVSHFLHVDFURVVDOOQRUWKHUQ UHJLRQVLQFUHDVHGEHWZHHQ2FWREHU¶DQG'HFHPEHU¶ continuing the trend due to successive normal to above normal seasonal rains (Deyr ‘04/’05 to Deyr ’06/’07). Conception rates for camels, sheep and goats in Deyr µ¶ZHUHKLJKLQDOOSDVWRUDODUHDVZLWKEHWZHHQORZ and medium calving of camels expected in April and May ,PSURYHG&DPHO&DOYLQJ+DZGRI0XGXJ'HFµ ’07, and high kidding of sheep and goats in April and May ’07. Apart from pack camel holdings for middle and poor LQWKHSUHYLRXVO\GURXJKWDIIHFWHGDUHDVRI1XJDO6RRODQG 6DQDDJWKDWKDYHQRWIXOO\UHFRYHUHGKHUGVL]HVDUHQRZ HVWLPDWHGWREHDWSUHGURXJKWOHYHOV+RZHYHUVFDWWHUHG FDVHVRIXQLGHQWL¿HGFDPHOGLVHDVHIURP(WKLRSLDDIIHFWHG DGXOWFDPHOVLQVRPHORFDOL]HGDUHDVFDXVLQJPRUWDOLW\RI an estimated 10-20% of the affected herds in Nugal Valley and +DZG plateau.

Effect on Livelihood Strategies

$EDVLFXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIKRZSDVWRUDOLVWVPDNHHQGVPHHW (access to food and income and expenditure patterns) LQDQRUPDOVLWXDWLRQSURYLGHVDEDVLVIRUDQDO\]LQJWKH impact of a particular shock or combination of shocks DQGVWUHVVHVVXFKDVGURXJKWFRQÀLFWFRPPRGLW\SULFH 6RUJKXP3URGXFWLRQ*HHG'LNKLV%DUL'HFµ LQÀDWLRQDQGGLVHDVHRXWEUHDNVDQGKRZWKH\FRSHZLWK these in terms of access to food and income. In northern regions, most pastoralists normally rely on food purchases, ZKLFKDFFRXQWIRURIWKHLUDQQXDOIRRGQHHGVLQDQDYHUDJH\HDU/LYHVWRFNSURGXFWV PLONDQGPHDW IURP the pastoralists’ herds make up the remaining food basket. Additionally 50-65% of the poor pastoralists’ income is GHULYHGIURPOLYHVWRFNVDOHVZKLOHLVIURPHPSOR\PHQWDQGIURPOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWVDOHV0LGGOHDQG better-of pastoralist households, generally, earn most of their income from livestock and livestock product sales.

Food sources: Due to the continuing pastoral recovery access to food through production and purchase is considered northeast and northwest somalia QRUPDO3DVWRUDOKRXVHKROGVDUHEHQH¿WLQJIURPLPSURYHGOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLRQIURPWKHFRQVXPSWLRQRIOLYHVWRFN SURGXFWV PLONDQGPHDW DQGWKURXJKFHUHDOSXUFKDVHWKURXJKWKHVDOHRIOLYHVWRFN0LONSURGXFWLRQLQWKHQRUWKZHVW DQGQRUWKZHVWLVFRQVLGHUHGJRRGDQGZLOOLPSURYHLQWKHFRPLQJPRQWKVGXHWRH[SHFWHGFDOYLQJDQGNLGGLQJRI camels and goats (see Financial Capital).

,QDGGLWLRQWRLPSURYHPHQWVLQOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLYLW\DJURSDVWRUDOLVWVLQWKHQRUWKZHVWEHQH¿WHGIURP*X.DUDQ total FURSSURGXFWLRQRIPW PWRIVRUJKXPDQGPWRIPDL]H ZKLFKZDVRIWKHVHDVRQDOSRVWZDU average and 97% of*X.DUDQ¶FHUHDOSURGXFWLRQLPSURYLQJIRRGDFFHVVIRUDJURSDVWRUDOJURXSVVLJQL¿FDQWO\ *HELOH\WKHKLJKHVWFHUHDOSURGXFLQJGLVWULFWLQWKHUHJLRQFRQWULEXWHGPRUHWKDQIROORZHGE\$ZGDOGLVWULFW ZLWKDQG+DUJHLVDDQG7RJGKHHUFRPELQHGZLWKRIWKHWRWDOFHUHDOSURGXFWLRQ VHH$JULFXOWXUH6HFWLRQ This year’s *X.DUDQ cereal production is the third highest of the last seven years (2000-2006) and the three highest SURGXFWLRQOHYHOVIDOOZLWKLQWKHODVWIRXUFRQVHFXWLYH\HDUV

Income sources: Improvements in livestock body condition and productivity in the northern regions have improved income potential for pastoral households. The demand for livestock in both local and external markets increased during the festivals of ,GG$O)LGUL and Hajj 2FWDQG'HFUHVSHFWLYHO\VHH/LYHVWRFN6HFWLRQIRUH[SRUW¿JXUHVIURP Berbera and Bosasso). The prices of both export and local quality sheep and goats have improved steadily from July/ $XJXVWLQFUHDVLQJLQYDOXHZLWKLQFUHDVLQJGHPDQGDQGLPSURYHGERG\FRQGLWLRQVDQGDUHFRQVLGHUDEO\DERYH OHYHOVVKRZLQJDFRQWLQXRXVDQGVWHDG\LQFUHDVLQJWUHQGLQWKHLQWHUYHQLQJ\HDUV$YHUDJHH[SRUWTXDOLW\JRDWSULFHV IRUWKHQRUWKZHVWKDYHLQFUHDVHGEHWZHHQ-DQXDU\¶ 6O6K DQG-DQXDU\¶ 6O6KKHDG DQGE\ IURP-XO\¶ 6O6K UHDFKLQJDSHDNLQ'HF¶RI6O6KKHDG$YHUDJHH[SRUWTXDOLW\JRDWSULFHV

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 66 Issued March 7, 2007 for the northeast have increased 25% between January ’06 Figure 41: Terms of Trade Imported Rice to Export (SoSh398,333) and January ’07 (SoSh498,000/head) and Quality Goat (2002 - 2007)

by 20% from July ’06 (SoSh416,500) reaching a peak in 140.00 Hargesia

Nov. ’06 of SoSh564,792. However, demand for export 120.00 Galkayo quality animals has declined from Dec. ’06 and will Burao continue to do so in the coming months following normal 100.00 Bossaso seasonal trends (see Livestock Section). Local quality 80.00

goat prices also exhibit similar trends. In the northeast 60.00

average prices have increased from Jan. ’06 to Jan. ’07 40.00 by 27% (from SoSh401,500 to SoSh511,000/head) and Kgs of Rice per 1 Head Export Goat by 22% from a low of SoSh419,500 in July ’06 reaching a 20.00 peak in Dec. ’06 of SoSh562,500. Average prices of local 0.00 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - n u n u n u n u n u n quality goat have been consistently higher than those of Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja Month other regions over the past year (Figure 11).

Income from ﬁ shing activities in the northeast have im- Figure 42: Northeast: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate proved for the ﬁ rst time since the tsunami in December 30,000 ‘04, improving food and livelihood security in eastern PETROL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 Kg 25,000 Jariban and the coastal Deeh and Gagaab areas. Frank- SUGAR 1 Kg

VEGETABLE OIL IMPORTED

incense production in the Golis and Gagaab zones has northeast and northwest somalia 20,000 1 Litre SOMALI SHILLINGS PER improved and good yields are expected in the forthcoming DOLLAR

Hagaa (beeyo) harvest in August and October (maydi) 15,000 which will also improve income for poor households. Price per Unit (SOSH) 10,000 Market Purchase: The main source of food for pastoralists is the market purchase of cereals, primarily imported 5,000 rice, from the sale of sheep and goats. Due to improved 0

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 milk availability household consumption, and therefore - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - l- - n n n n n n n n n n a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J expenditure, of imported food commodities such as rice Month and wheat ﬂ our has reduced. Figure 43: Northwest: Trend in Imported Commodity Imported rice prices in the northwest have remained rela- Prices compared to Exchange Rate

9,000 tively stable in the last six months (between SlSh2,750 to PETROL 1 Litre

8,000 SlSh2,800/kg) while in the northeast in the same period RED RICE 1 Kg

prices have ﬂ uctuated from a low of SoSh5,700 (in July 7,000 SUGAR ’06) to a high of SoSh6,188/kg (in Dec. ’06) (Figure 42 & 6,000 VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre 43). Purchasing power, or terms of trade (sheep and goats 5,000 SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER to cereal) for pastoralists has shown gradual improvement DOLLAR over the past two years of pastoral recovery and has in- 4,000 Price per Unit (SLSH) creased access to food (Figure 41). In the northeast, terms 3,000 of trade between imported red rice and export quality goat 2,000

ﬂ uctuated in response to export demand, reaching a peak 1,000

in November of 94.29kg but the rate in January ’07 is still 0

8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n higher than for January ’06 by 17% (79.60 compared to a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J 67.90kg). Terms of trade between local quality goat and Month red rice increased by 27% between Aug. ’06 and Dec. ’06 which is 25% higher than for Dec. ’06. Terms of trade are expected to decline slightly in the coming months as export demand and livestock prices decreases.

Coping strategies: No distress coping strategies were reported in the northern regions during the assessment.

Nutrition Situation The Northeast Zone: The key nutrition ﬁ ndings in these areas are as follows: • Nutrition Assessments: Three recent nutrition assessments were conducted in the northeast zone, in Goldogob, Bossaso IDP’s and Allula Kandala and Ishkuban. The most recent assessment was conducted in Goldogob in November and reported a GAM of 11.1% (8.6-13.6) and a SAM of 1.1% (0.3-1.5), these results are in line with previous assessments conducted at the same time in other years and therefore does not indicate any signiﬁ cant improvement or deterioration. In Bossaso IDP’s an exhaustive assessment was conducted in October ’06 and reported a GAM of 15.5% and a SAM of 2.0%, although high again these results are consistent with the previous assessments conducted at the same time of year from 2001 and indicate an improvement from the most

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 67 Issued March 7, 2007 1997/98 AND 2000/01 LIVESTOCK BANS AND THEIR IMPACT ON FOOD AND LIVELIHOOD SECURITY

Figure 44: Total Livestock Exports (all species) from Livestock production and marketing is a core economic %HUEHUDDQG%RVVDVR3RUWV

DFWLYLW\IRU6RPDOLDDQGWKH6RPDOLFRPPXQLW\DVDZKROH 4000.00

and live animal exports play a major role in the economy as Berbera a source of employment, income, foreign exchange, govern- 3500.00 Bossaso Average(1994-2006) ment revenues and food imports. The livelihood of about 3000.00 60-70% of all Somalis depends directly on livestock. Every year, several thousands of animals are exported to the Gulf 2500.00 Arabian states, predominantly Saudi Arabia, from ports in 2000.00 Somalia, particularly Bosasso, Berbera and Mogadishu. %HWZHHQDQGDYHUDJHDQQXDOH[SRUWVRIOLYH 1500.00 DQLPDOVIURP%HUEHUDDQG%RVDVVR3RUWVDORQHWRWDOOHG 9ROXPHLQ7KRXVDQGV more than 2.5 million animals per year, and in 2006 live 1000.00 DQLPDOH[SRUWVIURPWKHVHWZRSRUWVUHDFKHGPRUHWKDQ 500.00 million (Figure 44). 0.00 Most or 93% of these 3 million exported in 2006 are export 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year TXDOLW\VKHHSDQGJRDWVIRUZKLFKDWWKHDYHUDJH PDUNHWSULFHRI86'SHUKHDGWRWDOVPRUHWKDQPLOOLRQ86'LQHDUQLQJVIURPOLYHVWRFNVDOHV3DVWRUDOLVWVDUHWKH GLUHFWEHQH¿FLDU\RIWKLVLQFRPHHDUQLQJDVOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLRQLVSUHGRPLQDWHO\QRPDGLFSDVWRUDOEDVHGSURGXFWLRQ/LYH DQLPDOVH[SRUWHGWKURXJK%HUEHUDDQG%RVVDVR3RUWVRULJLQDWHIURPZLGHDUHDVWKURXJKRXW6RPDOLDLQFOXGLQJWKHQRUWK FHQWUDODQGHYHQDVIDUDZD\DVVRXWK6RPDOLDDQGWKH6RPDOL5HJLRQRI(WKLRSLD7KHOLYHVWRFNH[SRUWVKRZHYHUDOVR JHQHUDWHQXPHURXVEXVLQHVVWUDQVDFWLRQVDQGFUHDWHMREVERWKGLUHFWO\DQGLQGLUHFWO\,WLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWEHWZHHQDQG different transactions take place from the time livestock are sold by the pastoralists, collected in smaller markets, transported IRUVDOHWRODUJHUPDUNHWVDQG¿QDOO\ORDGHGRQWRDVKLSVIRUH[SRUW1

Impact of a Livestock Ban

7KHFXUUHQWOLYHVWRFNDQGFKLOOHGPHDWEDQLPSRVHGE\$UDELDQ*XOI6WDWHVLQODWH-DQXDU\IROORZLQJWKHFRQ¿UPHGRXWEUHDN RI59)LQ1RUWK(DVWHUQ.HQ\DDQGVXVSHFWHGFDVHVLQ6RXWKHUQ6RPDOLa (see Livestock Sectior) is the fourth livestock ban VLQFHWKHHDUO\V¶3UHYLRXVEDQVLQFOXGHDFDWWOHHPEDUJRLPSRVHGE\WKH.LQJGRPRI6DXGL$UDELD .6$ LQ0D\ due to a threat of a reinderpest outbreak, a 16 month comprehensive livestock ban on all imports of livestock and livestock SURGXFWVIURPWKH+RUQRI$IULFDLQ )HEUXDU\WR0D\ DQGWKHQDJDLQLQ 6HSWWR0D\ Despite these repeated livestock bans, the livestock export markets have proven to be effective at recovering once bans are

livestock ban lifted or ‘back doors’ are opened. Somalia is highly vulnerable to livestock embargos from Arabian Gulf States because of Somalia’s dependence on a single GHVWLQDWLRQPDUNHW6DXGL$UDELDIRUPRVWRILWVH[SRUWV PRUHWKDQRIDOOH[SRUWV 7KHLPSDFWRIDEDQRQOLYHVWRFN H[SRUWVLVLPPHGLDWHZLWKVLJQL¿FDQWGURSVLQWRWDOH[SRUWYROXPHVDVZDVWKHFDVHLQDQG )LJXUH 'H- SHQGLQJRQWKHOHQJWKRIDQµHIIHFWLYH¶EDQWKHFRVWVLQWHUPVRIORVWHDUQLQJVLVVLJQL¿FDQWUXQQLQJLQWRVHYHUDOPLOOLRQVRI GROODUV7KHORVVHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHWZRODVWEDQVEDVHGOLYHVWRFNH[SRUWORVVHVYDOXHGZLWKLPSRUWLQJFRXQWU\ODQGHG SULFHVIRU6RPDOLODQGDORQHZDVURXJKO\HVWLPDWHGDWPLOOLRQ86'DQGPLOOLRQ86'IRUWKH PRQWKV DQG PRQWKV OLYHVWRFNEDQUHVSHFWLYHO\2 In terms of producer income, losses based on forgone livestock sales DQGSURGXFHUSULFHVLQ6RPDOLODQGIRUWKHVHWZREDQVZHUHHVWLPDWHGDWPLOOLRQ86'DQGPLOOLRQ86'UHVSHFWLYHO\ Further losses are incurred by pastoralists through second round impacts on decreased livestock prices and terms of trade OLYHVWRFNWRFHUHDO DVZDVWKHFDVHGXULQJWKHSUHYLRXVWZREDQV 'HVSLWHWKHVKRFNVRIORVVLQFRPHHDUQLQJVDQGGHFUHDVHGSXUFKDVLQJSRZHUSDVWRUDOLVWVDQGDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVSURYHQWREH UHVLOLHQWWRSDVWOLYHVWRFNEDQVLQWHUPVRIIRRGVHFXULW\+RXVHKROGOLYHOLKRRGDQDO\VLVFRPSOHWHGE\)6$8)(:61(7 DQG6& 8. LQ0DUFKDQG-XO\DQG-DQXDU\DOOFRQFOXGHGWKDWHYHQSRRUSDVWRUDOLVWVDQGDJURSDVWRUDOLVWVKDG HQRXJKUHVRXUFHVDQGFRSLQJRSWLRQVWRUHVSRQGWRWKHDGYHUVHDIIHFWVRIWKHOLYHVWRFNEDQVRIDQGDQG maintained their total food income at roughly the level achieved before the ban.3(YHQZLWKGLIIHUHQWSUREOHPVSHFL¿FDWLRQV DVGH¿QHGE\GLIIHUHQWPDUNHWDQGSURGXFWLRQFLUFXPVWDQFHVDOOWKUHHVWXGLHVFRQFOXGHGWKDWSDVWRUDOLVWVDQGDJURSDVWRUDO- LVWVKDGVXI¿FLHQWH[SDQGDELOLW\LQDFTXLULQJIRRGDQGLQFRPHWRPDLQWDLQWKHLUIRRGVHFXULW\

7KHLQGLYLGXDOVWKDWDUHLQYROYHGDQGEHQH¿WIURPWKLVOLYHVWRFNPDUNHWLQJFKDLQLQFOXGHOLYHVWRFNWHQGHUVKHUGHUVORDGHUVEURNHUVSHQRZQHUVYHUL¿HUV UHJLVWUDUVPDUNHUVWUDQVSRUWRZQHUVGULYHUVVDOHVSHUVRQVIRGGHUDQGZDWHUSURYLGHUVZDWFKPHQVHFXULW\SURYLGHUVTXDOLW\FRQWUROOHUVDQGSRUWORDGHUV ³6HOI3RUWUDLWRI6RPDOLODQG´ ³6RFLR(FRQRPLF,PSOLFDWLRQVRIWKH/LYHVWRFN%DQLQ6RPDOLODQG´&+ROOHPDQ)(:61(76RPDOLD'HFHPEHU 6&8.DQG)6$8³7KH,PSDFWRIWKH/LYHVWRFN%DQRQWKH$JURSDVWRUDODQG3DVWRUDO)RRG(FRQRPLHVLQ:HVWHUQ6RPDOLODQG0DUFK)6$8 )(:61(7)RFXV³)RRG(FRQRP\6FHQDULR$QDO\VLV,PSDFWRIWKH&XUUHQW/LYHVWRFN([SRUW%DQ´,VVXH)HEUXDU\

FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 68 Issued March 7, 2007 UHFHQWDVVHVVPHQWLQ$XJXVWZKHUH*$0 )LJXUH$:'6SHFL¿F0RUWDOLW\&DVHVLQ7RJGKHHU ZDVUHSRUWHG)LQDOO\LQ$OOXOD.DQGDODDQG,VKNXEDQ and Sanag Regions GLVWULFWVDQDVVHVVPHQWZDVFRQGXFWHGLQ6HSWHPEHU 39 ’06 and reported a GAM of 13.8% (11.0-16.6) and a SAM of 1.6% (0.9-2.4), again similar to the other 40 29 DUHDVWKHVHUHVXOWVDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKSUHYLRXVDVVHVV- ments conducted at the same time of year in the area 30 DQGDOVRUHSUHVHQWGLVWULFWVZKLFKKDYHYHU\OLPLWHG 20 DFFHVVWREDVLFVHUYLFHVZLWKRQO\RQH0DWHUQDODQG 10 Child Health Centre serving the three districts. 10 • Rapid MUAC Assessment:$UDSLG08$&DVVHVV- 1XPEHURI&DVHV PHQWZDVFRQGXFWHGLQ(\OWRZQDQG*RGREYLOODJH 0 in Eyl District in December measuring a total of 453 U5 mortality Adult Total children 1-5yrs. The results reported 4% of children mortality Mortality ZLWKD08$& FP,QRQHYLOODJHLQ-DULEDQ GLVWULFWFKLOGUHQ\UVZHUHVFUHHQHGDQGUHSRUWHG RIFKLOGUHQZLWKD08$&RI FP • Health Information System: The levels of acutely malnourished children screened at health centre level remains ORZDQGVWDEOHLQPRVWSDUWVRIWKHQRUWKHDVWZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKH,'3SRSXODWLRQZKHUHKLJKHUOHYHOVRI DFXWHO\PDOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQDUHUHSRUWHG,QWKHPRQWKVRI1RYHPEHUDQG'HFHPEHU¶ORFDOLVHGDUHDVRI northeast and northwest somalia DFXWHZDWHU\GLDUUKRHDZHUHUHSRUWHGDFURVVWKH]RQHZKLFKPD\KDYHKDGDQLPSDFWRQWKHVHUHVXOWVDOWKRXJK WKHVLWXDWLRQVHHPVWRKDYHUHVROYHGQRZ

The Northwest Zone: 7KHNH\QXWULWLRQ¿QGLQJVLQWKHVHDUHDVDUHDVIROORZV

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FSAU Technical Series Report No V.12 69 Issued March 7, 2007 5. APPENDIX

5.1. COMPONENTS OF THE FOOD SECURITY AND HUMANITARIAN PHASE CLASSIFICATION

Explanation of the Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classiﬁ cation

Since February ’04 the Food Security Analysis Unit for Somalia (FSAU1) has been using and progressively developing a tool to meet these challenges called the Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classifi cation (IPC2). Drawing from extensive literature on international humanitarian guidelines, aspects of existing classifi cation systems, and in situ analysis of food security in Somalia, the IPC has consistently proven to improve analysis and enable more effective response. The IPC summarizes Situation Analysis, a distinct, yet often overlooked (or assumed) stage of the food security analysis-response continuum. Situation Analysis is a foundational stage whereby fundamental aspects (severity, causes, magnitude, etc) of a situation are identifi ed—aspects for which there is optimally broad-based consensus by key stakeholders including governments, UN and NGO agencies, donors, the media, and target communities.

The analytical logic of the IPC is that varying phases of food security and humanitarian situations are classifi ed based on outcomes on lives and livelihoods. Outcomes are a function of both immediate hazard events along with underlying causes, and the specifi c vulnerabilities of livelihood systems (including both livelihood assets and livelihood strategies). The outcomes are referenced against internationally accepted standards, and their convergence substantiates a phase classifi cation for any given area. Each phase is associated with a unique strategic response framework, while the outcome confi guration for any given situation guides the development of the most appropriate responses within that framework. While the phase classifi cation describes the current or imminent situation for a given area, early warning levels are a predictive tool to communicate the risk of a worsening phase. Risk is a function of the probability of a hazard event, exposure, and the specifi c vulnerabilities of livelihood systems.

The IPC Reference Table guides analysis for both the Phase Classifi cation and Early Warning Levels. The Phase Classifi cation is divided into fi ve Phases—Generally Food Se- cure, Chronically Food Insecure, Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, Humanitarian Emergency, and Famine/Humanitarian Phase Classifi cation Catastrophe. The fi ve phases are general enough to accom- modate a wide range of causes, livelihood systems, and politi- 1 Generally Food Secure cal/economic contexts—yet their distinction captures essential 2 Chronically Food Insecure

appendix differences in implications for action (including strategic design, 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis urgency, and ethical imperative). 4 Humanitarian Emergency A comprehensive set of Key Reference Outcomes on human 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe welfare and livelihoods are associated with each Phase to guide Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase the classifi cation, including: crude mortality rate, acute malnu- Watch trition, disease, food access/availability, dietary diversity, water Moderate Risk access/availability, destitution and displacement, civil security, High Risk coping, and livelihood assets. The breadth of outcomes enables Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs triangulation and ensures adaptability of the IPC to a wide va- Areas with IDP Concentrations riety of situations. Referencing the outcomes to international standards ensures comparability and consistency of the phase NOTES: 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, classifi cation in different countries and contexts. The Strategic and are rounded to the nearest 10,000 Response Framework unique to each Phase provides strategic, 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org yet generic guidance to achieve three objectives: (1) mitigate Phase Classifi cation immediate negative outcomes, (2) support livelihoods, and (3) address underlying/structural causes.

The Reference Table also includes three Early Warning Levels: (1) Alert, (2) Moderate Risk, (3) High Risk. Each of these is associated with key information required for effective early warning: Probability, Severity, Reference Hazards and Vulnerabilities, Implications for Action, and Timeline.

The Analysis Templates are tables which organize key pieces of information in a transparent manner and facilitate analysis to substantiate a Phase Classifi cation and guide response analysis. The Cartographic Protocols are a set of standardized mapping and visual communication conventions which are designed to effectively convey key information concerning situation analysis on a single map. The Population Tables are a means to consistently and effectively communicate population estimates by administrative boundaries, livelihood systems, and livelihood types. The IPC is not an assessment method, per se, but a classifi cation system for Situation Analysis that integrates multiple data sources, methods, and analyses (example options for specifi c assessment methodologies include those endorsed by

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 70 Issued March 7, 2007 5.1.1 INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY AND HUMANITARIAN PHASE CLASSIFICATION REFERENCE TABLE

Civil Security limited spread, low intensity conflict Create or implement contingency plan appendix Coping ‘crisis strategies’; CSI > than reference; increasing Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Advocacy 1-2 / 10,000 / day, >2x reference rate, increasing; Crude Mortality Rate U5MR > 2/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Urgent protection of vulnerable groups Disease pandemic Urgently Ĺ food access through complimentary interventions Humanitarian Food Access/ Availability severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., 4 Dietary Diversity Regularly 3 or fewer main food groups consumed water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) Emergency Water Access/Avail. < 7.5 litres ppp day (human usage only) Protection against complete livelihood asset loss and/or Destitution/Displacement concentrated; increasing advocacy for access Civil Security widespread, high intensity conflict Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘distress strategies’; CSI significantly > than reference Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Livelihood Assets near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access Advocacy

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 71 Issued March 7, 2007 WFP, ICRC, Save the Children UK, and many others). Effective use of the IPC encourages a mixed-method approach which is obligatory given the complexity of the analysis and the need for triangulation. In this manner, the IPC provides a consistent and meaningful structure to the fi nal statement. To substantiate an IPC statement, whatever the specifi c methodologies, the legitimacy of data sources and analytical methods is rigorously evaluated and refl ected in the overall confi dence level.

• Sustained Conditions: In general, the longer a crisis continues the relatively more essential it is to address underlying or structural causes if interventions have any chance of sustained positive effects. A purple border denotes areas of “sustained” levels of crisis in Phase 3, 4, or 5 for greater than three years (though an arbitrary threshold, it is inclusive of several seasonal cycles),. By hi-lighting these areas, it informs the type of strategic response and draws attention to “forgotten emergencies” for which complacency may have set in.

• Defi ning Attributes of Crisis Areas. For each area currently in or at risk of Phase 3, 4, or 5 a call-out box is included with situation specifi cs. A symbol key is provided for each defi ning attribute, including:

- Key immediate hazards - Key underlying causes - Estimated magnitude (i.e., the number of people estimated in Phase or at High Risk) - Criteria for social targeting - Usual Phase prior to current (which allows for distinction between chronic and transitory food insecurity) - Projected trend - Overall conﬁ dence level of analysis (which is an overall, heuristic statement on the conﬁ dence of the analysis as assessed by the analyst)

The key is generic, whereas the call-out boxes contain the speciﬁ c attributes relevant to that crisis area. The attributes currently include those which have relevance to various places in Somalia. However, this can easily be expanded

appendix to suit a wider array of situations. * ** ***

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 72 Issued March 7, 2007 5.2: TIME-SERIES OF THE INTEGRATED PHASE CLASSIFICATIONS (IPC) MAPS FOR SOMALIA 2004 – 2007

POST GU 2004 (JULY ’04) POST DEYR 2004/5 (JANUARY ’05)

Phase classes Phase classes

1 Fam ine 1 Fam ine

2 Humanitarian Emergency 2 Humanitarian Emergency 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

4 Alert 4 Alert 5 Chronic Food Insecurity 5 C hronic Food Insecurity

6 Generally Food Secure 6 Generally Food Secure

Early Warning of worsening conditions: Early Warning of worsening conditions: High risk Moderate risk High risk Moderate risk Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs Sustained Phase 2 or 3 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations Areas with IDP Concentrations

POST GU 2005 (JULY ’05) POST DEYR 2005/ 6(JANUARY 06’ ) appendix

Phase classes Phase classes

1 Fam ine 1 F am ine

2 Humanitarian Emergency 2 Humanitarian Emergency 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

4 Alert 4 Alert 5 Chronic Food Insecurity 5 Chronic Food Insecurity

6 Generally Food Secure 6 Generally Food Secure

POST GU 2006 (JULY ’06) POST DEYR 20067/ (JANUARY 07)’

Phase Classification Phase Classification 1 Generally Food Secure 1 Generally Food Secure 2 Chronically Food Insecure 2 Chronically Food Insecure 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 4 Humanitarian Emergency 4 Humanitarian Emergency 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Early Warning Levels for worsening Phas Early Warning Levels for worsening Phas Watch Watch Moderate Risk colour of diagonal lines Moderate Risk colour of diagonal lines High Risk indicates severity High Risk indicates severity Sustained Phase 3, 4 or 5 for > 3 yrs Sustained Phase 3, 4 or 5 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations Areas with IDP Concentrations

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 73 Issued March 7, 2007 5.3: PROGRESSION OF THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION BY REGION FROM GU 2006 TO DEYR ‘06/07

5.3.1: Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Gedo from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07.

IPC, Gu 2006 IPC, Deyr 2006-7 Liveliood Zones

Phase Classification Phase Classification 1 Generally Food Secure 1 Generally Food Secure

2 Chronically Food Insecure 2 Chronically Food Insecure 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 4 Humanitarian Emergency 4 Humanitarian Emergency 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Watch Watch colour of diagonal lines colour of diagonal lines Moderate Risk Moderate Risk indicates severity indicates severity High Risk High Risk Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations Areas with IDP Concentrations

LivelihoodBay-Bakool Agro-Pastoral zones High potential sorghum: Cattle, camel Dawo Pastoral: Shoats, cattle, camel Juba pump irrigation: Tobacco, onions, maize Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats Southern Agro-Pastoral: Camel, cattle, sorghum

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

UNDP 2005 Total Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 Gedo Affected District Population Acute Food and Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Baardheere 24,000 44,000 30,000 33,000 106,172 Belet Xaawo 10,000 31,000 12,000 24,000 55,989 Ceel Waaq 6,000 4,000 6,000 3,000 19,996 Doolow 5,000 17,000 6,000 12,000 26,495 Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 11,000 36,000 14,000 21,000 57,023 Luuq 13,000 28,000 20,000 15,000 62,703

appendix SUB-TOTAL 69,000 160,000 88,000 108,000 328,378 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 229,000 196,000

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

Estimated Population Gedo Region and Affected Livelihood Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 of Affected Livelihood Zones Zones Acute Food and Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE)

Bay-Bakool Agro-Pastoral 26,607 5,000 22,000 13,000 10,000

Dawa Pastoral 81,654 25,000 61,000 21,000 49,000

Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine 31,236 7,000 20,000 2,000 27,000

Southern Agro-Pastoral 31,751 2,000 35,000 22,000 8,000

Southern Inland Pastoral 75,828 30,000 22,000 30,000 14,000

SUB-TOTAL 247,076 69,000 160,000 88,000 108,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 229,000 196,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁ cation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group Region Timeline Specific Areas AFLC PHASE HE Phase or Districts Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones S.I. Dawa J.P Riv S. BB S.I. Dawa J.P. Riv S. BB Pastoral Pastoral Agropast Agropast Pastoral Pastoral Agropast Agropast Gedo Jan-Jun. 2007 (Deyr 06-07 50% - B 25% - P 25% - P 100% - P, 100% - P, Proj) 50% - M 50% - B 25% - P 75% - P 75% - P 75% - P 75% - M 100% - M 50% - M 100% - M 100% - M

July-Dec. 2006 Same as Post (Gu 06 Proj) Deyr '05-06 - due to heavy 100% - P, 100% - P 100% - P 100% - P 75% - M 50% - M 50% - B 50% - B 50% - M 100% - P asset losses & 50% - M 100% - M 100% - M 50% - M mixed outcome of Gu

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 74 Issued March 7, 2007 5.3.2: Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Lower and Middle Juba from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 IPC, Gu 2006 IPC, Deyr 2006-7 Liveliood Zones

Phase Classification Phase Classification 1 Generally Food Secure 1 Generally Food Secure 2 Chronically Food Insecure 2 Chronically Food Insecure 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 4 Humanitarian Emergency 4 Humanitarian Emergency LivelihoodLower Juba Agro-Pastoral: zones Maize & cattle 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe South-East Pastoral: Cattle, sheep & goats Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Southern Agro-Pastoral: Camel, cattle, sorghum Watch Watch colour of diagonal lines Southern Juba riverine: Maize, sesame, fruits & vegetables colour of diagonal lines Moderate Risk Moderate Risk indicates severity indicates severity Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats High Risk High Risk Southern coastal pastoral: Goats, cattle Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations Areas with IDP Concentrations

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

UNDP 2005 Total Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Middle Juba Bu'aale 59,489 11,000 35,000 19,000 21,000 Jilib 113,415 18,000 55,000 30,000 30,000 Saakow/Salagle 65,973 13,000 29,000 28,000 15,000 SUB-TOTAL 238,877 42,000 119,000 77,000 66,000 Lower Juba Afmadow/Xagar 51,334 9,000 24,000 28,000 2,000 Badhaadhe 38,640 7,000 0 10,000 0

Jamaame 129,149 10,000 53,000 26,000 40,000 appendix Kismaayo 166,667 19,000 14,000 22,000 0 SUB-TOTAL 385,790 45,000 91,000 86,000 42,000 GRAND TOTAL 624,667 87,000 210,000 163,000 108,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 297,000 271,000

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

Estimated Population of Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Affected Livelihood Zones Acute Food and Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis (HE) (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 0 Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 5,000 7,000 1,000 15,000 Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 3,000 6,000 8,000 0 South-East Pastoral 18,232 13,000 0 16,000 0 Southern Agro-Past 46,816 15,000 35,000 42,000 0 Southern Inland Past 22,725 0 7,000 6,000 0 Southern Juba Riv 59,304 6,000 64,000 4,000 51,000 SUB-TOTAL 184,138 42,000 119,000 77,000 66,000 Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 0 Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 23,000 21,000 41,000 0 South-East Pastoral 38,810 14,000 6,000 15,000 2,000 Southern Agro-Past 11,637 3,000 8,000 10,000 0 Southern Inland Past 50,119 0 4,000 13,000 0 Southern Juba Riv 57,005 5,000 52,000 7,000 40,000 SUB-TOTAL 261,108 45,000 91,000 86,000 42,000 GRAND TOTAL 445,246 87,000 210,000 163,000 108,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 297,000 271,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁ cation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group Region Timeline Specific Areas or AFLC PHASE HE Phase Districts Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones S.I. S.E. Past J.P. S. L. Juba J.P S.I. S.E. Past J.P S. L. Juba J.P. Pastoral Riv Agropast Agropast Irrigated Pastoral Riv Agropast Agropast Irrigated Juba Jan-Jun. All districts apart 25% - P, 100% - P, 100% - P, 100% - P 2007 from exeptions 100% - P 50% - B 0% 0% 75% - P 0% 0% 0% 100% - M 100% - M 100% - M 100% - M (Deyr 06-07 below Proj) Baadhahe / kismayo 100%-P in AFLC SE Past for Buale 100% - P, and Jilib - 100% 0% 100% - M M&P in AFLC July-Dec. 2006 100% - P, 100% - P, 100% - P, 100% - P, 100% - P, 0% 50% - M 50% - B 50% - M 50% - M 50% - M 100% - P (Gu 06 Proj) 50% - M 100% - M 50% - M 50% - M 50% - M

July-Dec Baadhahe / 2006 High kismayo 50% 100% -P 100% -P risk areas (Gu 06 Proj) July-Dec 2006 - 100% - P,

Buale and 50% - M Jilib

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 75 Issued March 7, 2007 5.3.3: Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Bay and Bakool from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 IPC, Gu 2006 IPC, Deyr 2006-7 Liveliood Zones

Phase Classification Phase Classification 1 Generally Food Secure 1 Generally Food Secure LivelihoodBay-Bakool zones Agro-Pastoral High potential sorghum: Cattle, camel

2 Chronically Food Insecure 2 Chronically Food Insecure Southern Agro-Pastoral: Camel, cattle, sorghum South-East Pastoral: Cattle, sheep & goats 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats 4 Humanitarian Emergency 4 Humanitarian Emergency Dawo Pastoral: Shoats, cattle, camel 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Watch Watch colour of diagonal lines colour of diagonal lines Moderate Risk Moderate Risk indicates severity indicates severity High Risk High Risk Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations Areas with IDP Concentrations

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

UNDP 2005 Total Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE Bakool Ceel Barde 29,179 4,000 5,000 6,000 0 Rab Dhuure 37,652 9,000 22,000 18,000 0 Tayeeglow 81,053 44,000 0 33,000 0 Waajid 69,694 41,000 0 0 0 Xudur 93,049 49,000 0 18,000 0 SUB-TOTAL 310,627 147,000 27,000 75,000 0 Bay Baydhaba/Bardaale 320,463 147,000 0 3,000 0 Buur Hakaba 125,616 57,000 0 2,000 0 Diinsoor 75,769 36,000 0 3,000 0 Qansax Dheere 98,714 46,000 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 620,562 286,000 0 8,000 0 GRAND TOTAL 931,189 433,000 27,000 83,000 0 appendix TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 460,000 83,000

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

Estimated Population of Affected Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 Livelihood Zones Acute Food and Livelihood Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE (AFLC) (HE Bakool Bay-Bakool-Bardera Agro-Past 16,098 10,000 3,000 11,000 0 Southern Agro-Past 167,643 120,000 16,000 55,000 0 Southern Inland Past 65,448 17,000 8,000 9,000 0 SUB-TOTAL 249,189 147,000 27,000 75,000 0 Bay Bay-Bakool-Bardera Agro-Past 274,649 175,000 0 0 0 South-East Pastoral 26,923 19,000 0 8,000 0 Southern Agro-Past 156,232 92,000 0 0 0 Southern Inland Past 35,945 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 493,749 286,000 0 8,000 0 GRAND TOTAL 742,938 433,000 27,000 83,000 0

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 460,000 83,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁ cation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group

Region Timeline Specific Areas or Districts AFLC PHASE HE Phase Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones S.I. S.E. Past S. BB S.I. S.E. Past S. BB Pastoral Agropast Agropast Pastoral Agropast Agropast Bakool Jan-Jun. 2007 Ceel Berde & Rabdhure: 50% and 100% 100% - P 100% - P, 100% - P, 0% 0% 0% (Deyr 06-07 Proj) pop affected respectively 50% - M 50% - M 50% - M Hudur & Tieglow: 50% and 100% pop 0% 100% - P, 100% - P, 0% 0% 0% affected respectively 50% - M 50% - M All other districts: 50% Ceel Barde, 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Hudur and 100% Wajid July-Dec. 2006 see below 100% - P, 100% - P, 0% 0% 0% (Gu 06 Proj) 50% - M 50% - M NEW AREA:: 50% of Ceel Barde district 100% -P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% and 100% of Wajid, Tieglow, & Hudur district 100% RabDhure district; 50% of Ceel 50% - M 50% - M 50% - M 100% - P, 100% - P, 100% - P, Barde; 50% - M 50% - M 50% - M Bay "Jan-Jun. 2006 100% - P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Deyr 06-07 Proj)" July-Dec. 2006 100% - P 100% - P, 100% - P 0% 0% 0% (Gu 06 Proj) 50% - M 25% - M

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 76 Issued March 7, 2007 5.3.4: Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 IPC, Gu 2006 IPC, Deyr 2006-7 Liveliood Zones

LivelihoodHiran Agro-Pastoral zones Hiran riverine: Sorghum, maize, cattle & shoats SouthernHawd Pastoral: inland Camel,pastoral: sheep Camel, & goats sheep & goats CiidSouthern Pastoral inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats Central regions Agro-Pastoral: Cowpea, sheep & goats, camel, cattle Shabelle riverine: Maize, fruits & vegetables

Phase Classification Phase Classification 1 Generally Food Secure 1 Generally Food Secure

2 Chronically Food Insecure 2 Chronically Food Insecure

3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

4 Humanitarian Emergency 4 Humanitarian Emergency

5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Wat c h Watch colour of diagonal lines colour of diagonal lines Moderate Risk Moderate Risk indicates severity indicates severity High Risk High Risk Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations Areas with IDP Concentrations

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

Hiraan Region Affected Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 UNDP 2005 Total Population District Acute Food and Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE (AFLC) (HE appendix Belet Weyne/Matabaan 172,049 57,000 18,000 4,000 5,000

Bulo Burto/Maxaas 111,038 31,000 13,000 4,000 5,000

Jalalaqsi 46,724 5,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 SUB-TOTAL 329,811 93,000 32,000 9,000 11,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 125,000 20,000

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 Hiraan Region and Affected Livelihood Zone Zones Acute Food and Livelihood Acute Food and Humanitarial Emergency Humanitarial Emergency Crisis Livelihood Crisis (HE (HE (AFLC) (AFLC) Ciid Pastoral 30,126 12,000 0 0 0 Hiran riverine 32,782 7,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Southern Agro-Past 136,130 65,000 25,000 0 0 Southern Inland Past 61,660 9,000 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 260,698 93,000 32,000 9,000 11,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 125,000 20,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁ cation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group Region Timeline Specific Areas or AFLC PHASE HE Phase Districts Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones S.I. Pastoral Ciid Hiran J.P Hiran S.I. Ciid Hiran J.P. Hiran Pastoral Agro-Pas Irrigated Riverine Pastoral Pastora Agro-Pas Irrigated Riv Hiran "Jan-Jun. 2007 Affected LZ- Hiran (Deyr 06-07 Riverine only 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% - M 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% - P Proj)" July-Dec. 2006 100% of all districts see (Gu 06 Proj) exception of affected 50% -P areas for districts of 75% P 75% P 50% - P 0% 0% 50% -P 50% - P 50% M Jalaqai & Bulo B. below 50% of Jalaqasi & Bulo 50% -P 75%- -P 0% 50% -P 0% 0% 50% -P 50% -P Barde distircts 50% M

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 77 Issued March 7, 2007 5.3.5: Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Central from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07

IPC, Gu 2006 IPC, Deyr 2006-7 Liveliood Zones

LivelihoodAddun Pastoral: zones Mixed sheep & goats, camel Central regions Agro-Pastoral: Cowpea, sheep & goats, camel, cattle Coastal Deeh: Sheep Hawd Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats

Phase Classification Phase Classification 1 Generally Food Secure 1 Generally Food Secure 2 Chronically Food Insecure 2 Chronically Food Insecure 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 4 Humanitarian Emergency 4 Humanitarian Emergency 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Watch Watch colour of diagonal lines colour of diagonal lines Moderate Risk Moderate Risk indicates severity indicates severity High Risk High Risk Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Areas with IDP Concentrations Areas with IDP Concentrations

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

UNDP 2005 Total Gu 2006 Deyr 2006-7 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Galgaduud Cabudwaaq 41,067 2,000 0 0 0 Cadaado 45,630 6,000 0 0 0 Ceel Buur 79,092 18,000 0 0 0 Ceel Dheer 73,008 0 0 0 0 Dhuusamarreeb 91,260 16,000 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 330,057 42,000 0 0 0 Mudug Gaalkacyo 137,667 0 0 0 0 Galdogob 40,433 0 0 0 0 Hobyo 67,249 20,000 0 0 0

appendix Jariiban 39,207 0 0 0 0 Xarardheere 65,543 9,000 SUB-TOTAL 350,099 29,000 0 0 0 GRAND TOTAL 680,146 71,000 0 0 0

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 71,000 0

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 78 Issued March 7, 2007 5.3.6: Progression of Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions from Gu 2006 to Deyr ’06-7 IPC, GU 2006 IPC, DEYR 2006-7 LIVELIOOD ZONES

Phase Classification Phase Classification 1 Generally Food Secure 1 Generally Food Secure

2 Chronically Food Insecure 2 Chronically Food Insecure

3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

4 Humanitarian Emergency 4 Humanitarian Emergency LivelihoodSool-Sanag zones Plateau Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Early Warning Levels for worsening Phase Hawd Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats Watch Watch colour of diagonal lines colour of diagonal lines Gagaab Pastoral: Frankincense Moderate Risk Moderate Risk indicates severity indicates severity East Golis Pastoral: Frankinncense High Risk High Risk Coastal Deeh: Sheep Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Sustained Phase 3 or 4 for > 3 yrs Kakaar-Dharor Pastoral: Sheep, goats, camel Areas with IDP Concentrations Areas with IDP Concentrations

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

Affected Regions and UNDP 2005 Total Gu 06 Deyr 2006-07 District Population Acute Food and Humanitarial Acute Food and Humanitarial Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Bari Bandarbayla 14,376 2,000 0 0 0 Bossaso 164,906 0 0 0 0 Caluula 40,002 0 0 0 0 Iskushuban 45,027 6,000 0 0 0 Qandala 42,502 4,000 0 0 0 Qardho/Dan Gorayo 81,156 16,000 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 387,969 28,000 0 0 0 Nugaal Burtinle 34,674 0 0 0 0 Eyl 32,345 3,000 0 0 0 appendix Garoowe 57,991 5,000 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 125,010 8,000 0 0 0 Sanaag Ceel Afweyn 65,797 5,000 0 0 0 Ceerigaabo 114,846 5,000 0 0 0 Laasqoray/Badhan 89,724 17,000 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 270,367 27,000 0 0 0 Sool Caynabo 30,702 2,000 0 0 0 Laas Caanood 75,436 5,000 0 0 0 Taleex 25,354 12,000 0 0 0 Xudun 18,785 8,000 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 150,277 27,000 0 0 0 Togdheer Burco 288,211 19,000 0 0 0 Buuhoodle 38,428 1,000 0 0 0 Owdweyne 42,031 2,000 0 0 0 Sheikh 33,625 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 402,295 22,000 0 0 0 GRAND-TOTAL 1,335,918 112,000 0

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 112,000 0

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 79 Issued March 7, 2007 5.4: POST DEYR ‘06/07 ESTIMATED POPULATION IN HE AND AFLC FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY – JUNE ’07

5.4.1: Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Region

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Total Acute Food and Total in AFLC or HE Affected Regions 1 Humanitarian Population Livelihood Crisis as % of Region Emergency (HE)2 (AFLC)2 population North3 2,341,718 0 0 0 Central 680,156 0 0 0 Banadir 901,183 . . . South Bakool 310,627 80,000 0 26 Bay 620,562 10,000 0 2 Gedo 328,378 90,000 110,000 61 Hiraan 329,811 10,000 10,000 6 Juba Lower 385,790 90,000 40,000 34 Middle Juba 238,877 80,000 70,000 63 Lower Shabelle 850,651 0 0 0 Middle Shabelle 514,901 0 0 0 Sub-Total (South) 3,579,597 360,000 230,000 13

GRAND TOTAL 7,502,654 360,000 230,000 8

Table 1B: Summary Table2 Assessed and Contingency Rural Population Numbers in AFLC and HE 590,000 85 Estimated Number of IDP’s4 400,000 55 Estimated Total Population in Crisis 990,000 145

appendix 1 Source: Rural Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population ﬁ gures in affected regions. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the ofﬁ cial estimates provided by UNDP 2 Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest ten thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning 3 Dan Gorayo is included within Bari Region following precedent set in population data prior to UNDP/WHO 2005 4 Source: UN-OCHA updated April 2004 (376,630) and UNHCR IDP map Dec.2005 (407,000), rounded to 400,000 as an estimate 5 Percent of total population of Somalia estimated at 7,502,654 (UNDP/WHO 2005)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 80 Issued March 7, 2007 5.4.2: Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by District Acute Food and Humanitarian Affected Regions and UNDP 2005 Total Total in AFLC or HE as Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE)Error! District Population1 % of Region population (AFLC)2 Bookmark not defined. Bakool El Barde 29,179 6,000 0 21 Rabdure 37,652 18,000 0 48 Tieglo 81,053 33,000 0 41 Wajid 69,694 0 0 0 Hudur 93,049 18,000 0 19 Sub-Total 310,627 75,000 0 24 Bay Baidoa/Bardale 320,463 3,000 0 1 Burhakaba 125,616 2,000 0 2 Dinsor 75,769 3,000 0 4 Q/dheere 98,714 0 0 Sub-Total 620,562 8,000 0 1 Gedo Bardera 106,172 30,000 33,000 59 Belet Hawo 55,989 12,000 24,000 64 El Waq 19,996 6,000 3,000 45 Dolow 26,495 6,000 12,000 68 Garbaharey/Burdubo 57,023 14,000 21,000 61

Luuq 62,703 20,000 15,000 56 appendix Sub-Total 328,378 88,000 108,000 60 Hiraan Belet Weyne/Mataban 172,049 4,000 5,000 5 Bulo Burti/Mahas 111,038 4,000 5,000 8 Jalalaqsi 46,724 1,000 1,000 4 Sub-Total 329,811 9,000 11,000 6 Middle Juba Buale 59,489 19,000 21,000 67 Jilib 113,415 30,000 30,000 53 Sakow/Salagle 65,973 28,000 15,000 65 Sub-Total 238,877 77,000 66,000 60 Lower Juba Afmadow/Hagar 51,334 28,000 2,000 58 Badhadhe 38,640 10,000 0 26 Jamame 129,149 26,000 40,000 51 Kismayo 166,667 22,000 0 13 Sub-Total 385,790 86,000 42,000 33 GRAND TOTAL 2,214,045 343,000 227,000 26

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 81 Issued March 7, 2007 5.4.3: Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Livelihood Group

Bakool Bay-Bakool-Bardera Agro-Past 16,098 11,000 0 68 Southern Agro-Past 167,643 55,000 0 33 Southern Inland Past 65,448 9,000 0 14 Sub-Total 249,189 75,000 0 30 Bay Bay-Bakool-Bardera Agro-Past 274,649 0 0 0 South-East Pastoral 26,923 8,000 0 30 Southern Agro-Past 156,232 0 0 0 Southern Inland Past 35,945 0 0 0 Sub-Total 493,749 8,000 0 2 Gedo Bay-Bakool-Bardera Agro-Past 26,607 13,000 10,000 86 Dawa Pastoral 81,654 21,000 49,000 86 Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 31,236 2,000 27,000 93 Southern Agro-Past 31,751 22,000 8,000 94 Southern Inland Past 75,828 30,000 14,000 58 Sub-Total 247,076 88,000 108,000 79 Hiraan Ciid Pastoral 30,126 0 0 0 Hiran riverine 32,782 9,000 11,000 61 Southern Agro-Past 136,130 0 0 0 Southern Inland Past 61,660 0 0 0 Sub-Total 260,698 9,000 11,000 8 Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 appendix Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 1,000 15,000 92 Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 8,000 0 91 South-East Pastoral 18,232 16,000 0 88 Southern Agro-Past 46,816 42,000 0 90 Southern Inland Past 22,725 6,000 0 26 Southern Juba Riv 59,304 4,000 51,000 93 Sub-Total 184,138 77,000 66,000 78 Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 41,000 0 58 South-East Pastoral 38,810 15,000 2,000 44 Southern Agro-Past 11,637 10,000 0 86 Southern Inland Past 50,119 13,000 0 26 Southern Juba Riv 57,005 7,000 40,000 82 Sub-Total 261,108 86,000 42,000 49 GRAND TOTAL 1,695,958 343,000 227,000 34 1 Source: Rural Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population ﬁ gures in affected regions. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the ofﬁ cial estimates provided by UNDP 2 Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest one thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning South Region Livelihood Population Estimate Summary

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Affected Livelihood Estimated Population of Systems Affected Livelihood Systems Acute Food and Livelihood Humanitarian Emergency Total in AFLC or HE as % of Region Crisis (AFLC) (HE) Population

Agro-pastoral 946,527 202,000 18,000 23 Pastoral 551,807 118,000 65,000 33 Riverine 197,624 23,000 144,000 85 TOTAL 1,695,958 343,000 227,000

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 82 Issued March 7, 2007 5.5: LIST OF PARTNERS THAT PARTICIPATED IN THE FSAU POST DEYR ‘06/07 ASSESSMENT

FSAU would like to thank all the agencies that participated and made this assessment possible. Our regional partners assisted with data collection and logistical support.

1. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) 2. Horn of Africa Volunteer Youth Organization (HAVAYOCO) 3. Ministry of Health and Labour (Somaliland) 4. Ministry of Livestock (Somaliland) 5. Gedo Health Consortium (GHC) 6. National Environmental Research and Disaster Preparedness (NERAD) 7. CARE 8. United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) 9. Africa Rescue Committee (AFREC) 10. Action Internationale Centre la Faim (ACF) 11. Save The Children Fund 12. UN Ofﬁ ce for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) 13. Danish Refugee Council (DRC) 14. Pastoral and Environmental Network for the Horn of Africa (PENHA), 15. Oxfam GB 16. Vetaid 17. Horn Relief 18. Ministry of Agriculture (Somaliland) , 19. Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) Puntland, 20. Concern 21. Ministry of Planning and Rural Development (MPRD) 22. Ministry of Water & Mineral Resources Somaliland (MWMR) 23. Jubbaland Charity Center (JCC)

24. Society Development Initiative Organization (SDIO) appendix 25. Somali Aid Foundation (SAF) 26. MERCY 27. Sanag Agricultral Development Organization (SADO) 28. Transitional Federal Government of Samalia (TFG) 29. World Food Programme (WFP) 30. Social-Life & Agriculture Development Organization - South (SADO) 31. Green Hope 32. Muslim Aid 33. Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) 34. Ministry of Local Government (MoLG) 35. Somali Volunteer Organization (SVO ) 36. Somalia Women Association (SWA) 37. German Agro Action (GAA) 38. Committee of Concerned Somalis (CCS) 39. Advancement for Small Enterprise Program (ASEP) 40. Medicine Sans Frontieres - Belgium (MSFB)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 83 Issued March 7, 2007 000 500 500 000 500 , , , , , 5 365 225,000 gure is used model (total #) Estimate: Best Planning 10 yr Flood return 10 yr 6 7 4 000 104 000 000 32 000000 62 113 , , , , , quantify displacement the upper fi (total #) POPULATION DISPLACEMENT POPULATION Current best 08/12 3.00pm estimate as of: 059 36 484 36 444 102 889 159 565 104 , , , , , 2 3 p) cial estimates provided by UNDP. cial estimates provided by UNDP. 2. Flood inundation map overlaid with settlements to estimate population o p ey are the offi 777018142 365 32 104 947251 62 112 , , , , , UNDP 2005 ( appendix Based on 1975 Settlements gure gure FLOOD MODEL PROJECTED ESTIMATES 5yr Flood Return Period5yr Flood Return Period 10yr fi gures, use the larger 811901651378 27 877 65 81 28 36 , , , , , 1 pp y Population ood inundation • Displaced population calculated by multiplying the number of hh’s by hh size of 6 • If a range is provided to ood inundation • Displaced population calculated by multiplying the number of hh’s UNDP 2005 Total gures of 08/12 exceed planning fi oods but no population displaced was given Hiran 329 Lower Shabelle 850 Middle Juba 238 Lower Juba 385,790 199,315 224,744 17,500 Middle Shabelle 514 Gedo 328 ned as direct displacement through fl TOTAL 2,648,408 438,450 902,185 454,500 902,000 Juba Riverine 953,045 263,475 361,247 155,500 361,000 Riverine BasinRiverine Region habelle Riverine 1,695,363 174,975 540,938 299,000 541,000 5.6: ‘BEST PLANNING ESTIMATES’ OF POPULATION DISPLACEMENT IN SHABELLE AND JUBA RIVERINE BASINS – DEYR ‘06/07 AND JUBA IN SHABELLE DISPLACEMENT POPULATION OF PLANNING ESTIMATES’ 5.6: ‘BEST S displaced Footnotes: August 1, 2005. FSAU does not round these population estimates as th Somalia, 1. Population estimates by region/district, UNDP displaced 2005 population estimates 3. Estimated population based on proportion of 1975 settlements adjusted with UNDP point for new information 3.00p.m. Figures rounded to the nearest 500. updated daily with cut-off Table 4. Where displaced fi 5. Figures rounded to the nearest 500. 6. Comprehensive reports indicated minimum displacement in Lower Shabelle. 7. Some districts in these regions reported fl Working assumptions: Working • Displaced population defi

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 84 Issued March 7, 2007 5.7: POST DEYR ‘06/07 ASSESSMENT PROCESS, ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND TIMELINE

5.7.1 Post Deyr 06/07 Assessment Timeline

Activity Date Description/Location x FSAU Planning & Preparation Nov 14 – Dec 5, ‘06 Nairobi x Partner Technical Planning December 5, ‘06 Agricultural Assessment and Pastoral Assessment Meeting (Nairobi) x FSAU Issues Food Security & December 14, ‘06 Preliminary Indications: Outcome of Deyr rains; Sectoral Impacts, Nutrition Special Brief and Integrated Analysis Impacts on FS & N; Implications for IPC & Population x Regional Planning Meetings December 11 - 12 Fieldwork Training & Planning with Partners (Hargeisa, Garoowe, Belet Weyne, Marka, Wajid, Kismaayo) x Fieldwork Dec 13, ‘06 - Jan 3, ‘07 In all regions with partners x Regional Analysis Meeting Jan 4 - 7 Compilation of fieldwork & analysis (Garoowe and Hargeisa) x All Team Workshop January 11 - 23 Sector & Integrated Analysis Sector Overview, Regional: Evidence Based Templates, IPC (Hargeisa) x Finalisation of Executive January 23 - 27 Finalisation of Executive Results Results Sector Overview, Regional: Evidence Based Templates, IPC (Nairobi) x Vetting of Exec Results with January 29 Closed door with assessment participating partners Technical Partners (Nairobi) x Release of Results January 31 Presentation of Results to Special FSRD/SSS: Sectors, IPC, & Population Estimates (Nairobi)

February 23 Press Release on Outcome Post Deyr: Despite flooding and conflict in appendix November/December '06 the overall humanitarian situation has generally improved in Somalia

Release of Technical Series Report March 07 Release of Technical Series Report of full Post Deyr Analysis through hard copy distribution, Website, and Email

5.7.2 FSAU Regional Presentations on the Post Deyr 2006/7 Results

Region Place and Date Time Contact Bay/Bakool Wajid, WFP meeting facility 10:00-11:30 AM Abdulaziz Aden 7/02/07 [[email protected]] M/L Juba Buale at World Vision Office 16.00 hrs (4:00 Nur Moallim Ahmed 14/02/07 P.M.) Juba Valley FP [email protected] Banadir/Lower and Mogadishu @Saxaafi 2 (hotel) 10.00 AM Abdikadir Abikar Middle Shabelle 14/02/07 (Food Security) Mogadishu FP [email protected] Northwest Hargeisa at FAO/FSAU 9:30AM Mahdi Kayad Office [email protected] 12/02/2007 Central (Hiran & Beletweyn at SCF-UK Office 9.00-11.00 AM Abdi Hussein Roble Galgadud) 10/02/07 Central FP [email protected]

The tools used during the Post Deyr Assessment and Analysis process are listed below. 5.7.3 Assessment Instruments and Tools 5.7.3.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 5.7.3.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 5.7.3.3 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Market Questionnaire 5.7.3.4 FSAU Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment: Conﬂ ict Monitoring Form & Notes 5.7.3.5 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Flood Assessment Form 1 & Notes 5.7.3.5 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Flood Assessment Form 2 & Notes 5.7.3.6 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 85 Issued March 7, 2007 5.7.3 Assessment Instruments and Tools 5.7.3.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT (FSAU)/FEWSNET FOOD SECURITY, LIVELIHOODS AND NUTRITION ASSESSMENT FSAU PASTORAL QUESTIONNAIRE FSAU

Date: ______Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______District: ______Village/Settlement______Livelihood zone: ______GPS Coordinates North: ______East: ______Key informant/focus group/household interview: (circle one) Data entry number ______

1.0 SEASONAL PERFORMANCE: RAINFALL Amount Duration (from first to last rain) Frequency Distribution

Note: Classify each as follows: 1 very poor, 2 poor, 3 average, 4 good, 5 very good

2.0 SEASONAL PERFORMANCE: KEY EVENTS Note the key events for the current season. Key events may include, for example, reference to floods, drought, freezing rains, conflict, and extreme currency fluctuation. Note whether these are positive or negative in their impact

3.0 SEASONAL PERFORMANCE: CONCEPTIONS, BIRTHS AND DEATHS Livestock Type Camels Cattle Shoats Seasonal Concept- Births Deaths Concept- Births Deaths Concept- Births Deaths Year (1-5*) performance ions ions ions 2006/07 Deyr 2006 Hagaa 2006 Gu 2006 Jilaal 2005/06 Deyr

appendix * Classify each season as follows: Use the following categories to indicate levels of conceptions, births and deaths: 5 = a very good season for livestock production (e.g. due to good rains, little high, medium, low, none disease, etc) 4 = a good season or above average season for livestock production Remember that births occur: 3 = an average season in terms of livestock production 12 months after conception in camels 2 = a poor season for livestock production 9 months after conception in cattle 1 = a very poor season for livestock production (e.g. due to drought, livestock 5 months after conception in small stock disease, etc.)

4.0 LIVESTOCK HERD DYNAMICS Livestock Type October 2005 - September 2006 Camels Cattle Shoats No. owned start Deyr 2005/06 20 20 50

No. adult females

No. born Deyr 2005/06

No. born Gu 2006

No. sold during the year

No. slaughtered

No. died during the year

No. lost during the year

No. given away during the year

No. bought during the year No. at end of year (reported by informants)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 86 Issued March 7, 2007 September 2006 – now Camels Cattle Shoats No. owned start Deyr 2006/07 (calculated) No. born Deyr 2006/07

No. sold Deyr 2006/07

No. slaughtered Deyr 2006/07

No. died Deyr 2006/07

No. lost Deyr 2006/07

No. given away during Deyr 2006/07

No. bought Deyr 2006/07

No. lactating now (reported)

Milk yield Deyr 2006/07 (l/day)

Cross-checks: Camels Cattle Shoats No. at end of year ie. September 2006 (calculated) = (no. owned start Deyr 2005/06) + (births Deyr 2005/06 + births Gu 2006 + no. bought) – (sales + slaughtered + died + lost + given)

No. lactating now (calculated)

= births in Gu 2006 + Deyr 2006/07 since Gu 2006 Deyr 2006/07

Results Summary:

No. lactating per 100 animals appendix

Milk yield Deyr 2006/07 (l/day) Bear in mind the following figures for East African pastoral herds in a year of no herd growth. In most years sold + slaughtered should be less than this to allow for some increase in herd size.

Typical figures for births, deaths, sale and slaughter Camels Cattle Shoats No. owned at start of year (total) 20 20 50 No. adults females: 11 8 28 No. born during year 4.5 5.5 33 No. sold + slaughtered during year 3 4 21 No. died during year 1.5 1.5 12 No. bought during year 0 0 0 No. at end of year 20 20 50 % sold + slaughtered Notes: [1] No. died includes deaths of newborn animals. Deaths in the 1st year of life are about 65% of total deaths for cattle. Deaths in the 1st year of life are about 85% of total deaths for shoats. [2] Estimates of sold + slaughtered are based on zero herd growth.

5.0 LIVESTOCK-MIGRATION 5.1 Are livestock movements in this area ‘normal’ for this season? (Note: [ ] YES [ ] NO ‘normal’ in this sense is not resulting from unusual shortage of water and/or pasture or from insecurity) 5.2 Do you expect there to be abnormal livestock migration before the [ ] YES [ ] NO start of the next rainy season? 5.3 What are the reasons for any abnormal migration? Rank them 1-4 [ ] WATER in order of importance with ‘1’ being the most important? [ ] PASTURE [ ] INSECURITY [ ] OTHER (SPECIFY) 5.4 If there has already been ABNORMAL migration, from where to 1. where (list main 4 routes and rank 1-4 in order of importance, with ‘1’ 2. being the most important)? 3. 4.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 87 Issued March 7, 2007 6.0 DEBT 6.1 What is the average level of accumulated household debt for poor US$ [ ] households in the current season? 6.2 Has this level of debt increased, remained the same, or decreased [ ] Increased from this season last year? [ ] Same [ ] Decreased 6.3 What are the two most important types of household debt for poor a. Main Source [ ] households this season? b. Secondary Source [ ] 1. Food (staple food purchase); 2. Food (non-staple food purchase); 3. Transport; 4. Human health services; 5. Livestock health services; 6. Water (human); 7. Water (livestock); 8. Other (specify______)

7.0 EFFECTS ON LIVELIHOOD ASSETS - SOCIAL CAPITAL 7.1 Are pastoralists receiving distress social support from relatives and [ ] YES [ ] NO friends? 7.2 If YES, currently, what are the main types of distress social a. Amah [ ] support? Rank 1- 4 (with 1 being the most important and 4 being the b. Remittances [ ] least important) c. Kaalmo [ ] d. Other (specify) [ ]

8.0 OTHER MAJOR SOURCES OF CASH INCOME List in the table below other major sources of cash income for pastoralists in this area Is access to these income sources different this season compared to usual?

Source of cash income Relevant in this Change in access this season compared to usual for this time of year area? Remittances Yes [ ] No [ ] Decreased [ ] no change [ ] increased [ ] Wood/charcoal Yes [ ] No [ ] Decreased [ ] no change [ ] increased [ ] Gums/resins Yes [ ] No [ ] Decreased [ ] no change [ ] increased [ ] Other Yes [ ] No [ ] Decreased [ ] no change [ ] increased [ ] Give reasons for any change in access, e.g. insecurity, changes in market conditions (supply and demand, price, trading patterns, local food insecurity leading to increased competition for resources, etc.)

9.0 ISSUES OF CONCERN Note major issues of concern that have not been covered in the questions above appendix

What is the quality of the interview? (circle one) Signed: Interviewer a. Overall reliable b. Generally reliable with areas of concern c. Unreliable Signed: Team Leader

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 88 Issued March 7, 2007 5.7.3.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey

THE FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT FOR SOMALIA FSAU (FSAU) FSAU

2006/07 DEYR SEASON CROP PRODUCTION SURVEY Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______Date of interview: ______District: ______Supervisor’s name: ______Village: ______Date checked: ______Name of the farmer:______Household size (in numbers): ______In collaboration with The Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) The Famine Early Warning System (FEWS/USAID)

1. CROP CONDITION {For crops not grown, leave rows blank}

1.1 What was the crop condition this Deyr season? {Specify other crops} CROP Crop Poor Normal crop Good Other Failure crop crop Maize Sorghum Beans Sesame Other

2. CROP PRODUCTION {For crops not grown, leave rows blank} appendix

2.1 For each field you planted this Deyr season, indicate the size of

UNIT OF MEASUREMENT: ______FIELD FIELD No.2 FIELD OTHER TOTAL AREA CROP No.1 No.3 FIELD Maize Irrigated Rainfed Sorghum Irrigated Rainfed Beans Irrigated Rainfed Sesame Irrigated Rainfed Other Irrigated Rainfed

2.2 For each crop grown, indicate the amount harvested this Deyr season? UNIT OF MEASUREMENT: ______

CROP HARVEST Maize Sorghum Beans Sesame Other

2.3 How does this season’s production compare with a normal Deyr season? {Present farmer with 20 seeds or stone. Ask him/her to divide the pile into two – one indicating the size of a normal Deyr harvest and one for this year’s harvest. Count the number of seeds/stones and record below. Repeat for each crop grown.}

CROP Normal Deyr This Deyr Maize Sorghum Beans Sesame Other

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 89 Issued March 7, 2007 2.4 What were the major production constraints this Deyr season and rank them in order of importance (1 being the most important)

Ƒ Seed availability Ƒ Tractor availability Ƒ Pests and diseases Ƒ Fuel costs Ƒ Labour availability Ƒ Other (specify)

3. LIVESTOCK

3.1 How were pasture conditions this Deyr season? 1. Bad 2. Normal 3. Good

3.2 Have there been any outbreaks of livestock diseases in the last one month? 1. Yes 2. No (skip 3.3)

3.3 Were there any livestock deaths? 1. Yes 2. No (Skip Q3. 4)

3.4 How many livestock died as a result of abnormal disease out-breaks (numbers/types)? ______

3.5 Are livestock drugs available at the nearest local market? 1. Yes 2. No

4. COPING MECHANISMS

4.1 How much food will you have in stock after this harvest?

appendix ______(Specify units)

4.2 How long do you expect this food to last? ______(Specify month/weeks)

4.3 If your food stock will not last until the Gu 2007 harvest, how Will you cope with the shortfall?

1.Purchase food 2.Stop non-food uses 3.Sell livestock 4.Non-food activities 5. Other (specify)

Quality of the interview (circle one): A. overall reliable; B. generally reliable with areas of concern; C. unreliable

Comments on the interview:______

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 90 Issued March 7, 2007 5.7.3.3 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Market Questionnaire

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT (FSAU)/FEWSNET FOOD SECURITY, LIVELIHOODS AND NUTRITION ASSESSMENT FSAU MARKET QUESTIONS FSAU

Date & season: ______Interviewer’s name: ______Market location (region): ______Market location (district): ______Market location (settlement): ______Livelihood zone: ______GPS Coordinates: North: ______East: ______

Unit Current prices (note Supply (*) currency) 1. Price of major staples and non- staples Imported rice 1 kg White Sorghum 1 kg Red Sorghum 1 kg Yellow Maize 1 kg White Maize 1 kg Wheat flour 1 kg Vegetable oil 1 lt Sugar 1 kg 2. Employment (non-skilled) wage rates Herding Per day appendix Agricultural labouring Per day Construction Per day Other (specify): Per day Other (specify) Per day 3. Sale price of bush products (self- employment) Firewood/logs Bundle Charcoal Bag Incense/gum 1 kg Other (specify): Other (specify): 4. Sale price of livestock products Fresh camel milk 1 lt Fresh cow milk 1 lt Other (specify): Other (specify): 5. Sale price of livestock Export shoats Per head Local shoats Per head Local cattle Per head Export cattle Per head Local camel Per head Other (specify): Per head Other (specify): Per head 6. Price of water Water (human) (specify unit) 1 unit 7. Local exchange rate US$1 =

Note *. Supply conditions: (5) surplus, (4) above normal, (3) normal, (2) below normal, (1) scarce, (0) not available

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 91 Issued March 7, 2007 5.7.3.4 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Conﬂ ict Monitoring Form

THE FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT FOR SOMALIA FSAU (FSAU) FSAU

FSAU DEYR ASSESSMENT CONFLICT MONITORING FORM

Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______Date of interview: ______District: ______Supervisor’s name: ______Village: ______Date checked: ______Name of the farmer:______Household size (in numbers): ______

Reporting date: Region: District (use pre-war districts names only): Analyst name:

CONFLICT SOMALI / ENGLISH ANSWER ADDITIONAL COMMENTS INDICATORS 1. Location of insecurity xuddun dagaal / epicentre of the insecurity (name of town or village) 2. Magnitude (select 2a. kooban / limited spread 2b. baahasan / widespread only one) 3. Trigger 3a. biyo iyo daaq / water and pasture (select all that apply by 3b. sheegasho dhuleed / land ownership dispute indicating Yes or No) 3c. dagaal sooh’din / boundary dispute 3d. dagaal siyaasadeed / political dispute 3e. argoosi/aane / retaliation 3f. dhac xoolaad / livestock raiding 3g. bililiqaysi / looting 3h. humanitarian aid 4. Type (select only one) 4a. colaad sokeeye / within same clan 4b. colaad qabiil / between different clans 5. Intensity 5a. nabad / peace (select all that apply by 5b. qasnaan / tense, fluid, insecure, but no fighting indicating Yes or No) 5c. diyargarow dagaal / preparation for war (including arming) 5d. colaad / clans separated, no fighting 5e. dagaal go’beed / fighting where some groups not targeted 5f. xasuuq / fighting where all groups are targeted 6. Resolution 6a. wada hadal la’an/ no dialogue appendix (select all that apply by 6b. wada hadal / dialogue indicating Yes or No) 6c. xabad joojin / ceasefire agreement 6d. walaayo / terms accepted 6e. bixin diyo / compensation paid (‘blood’ payment) 6f. heshiis buuxa / complete conflict resolution 7. Overall insecurity 7a. hagageysa / improving 7b. deganaansho / 7c. sii trend unchanged xumaaneysa / (select only one) worsening CONFLICT OUTCOMES 8. Displacement barakac / conflict induced 1: From: To: No. of hh: displacements 2. From: To: No. of hh: 3: From: To: No. of hh: 4: From: To: No. of hh: 9. Human deaths and Deaths: T ; FA ; MA ; C Injuries: T ; FA injuries ; MA ; C 10. Loss and/or Asset 1: Quantity: Asset 2: Quantity: Asset 3: destruction of assets Quantity: 11. Access to L1: L2: L3: L4: grazing/browsing 12. Access to agricultural L1: L2: L3: L4: land 13. Access to water L1: L2: L3: L4: sources 14. Access to markets L1: L2: L3: L4: 15. Access to health L1: L2: L3: L4: services T %; FA %; MA %; C % T %; FA %; MA %; C % T %; FA %; MA %; C % T %; FA %; MA %; C % 16. Access to schools L1: L2: L3: L4: T %; FC %; MC % T %; FC %; MC % T %; FC %; MC % T %; FC %; MC % 17. Roadblocks Point 1: Point 2: No. of roadblocks:

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 92 Issued March 7, 2007 DEYR ASSESSMENT CONFLICT MONITORING FORM NOTES EXPLANATION 1. The aim of this form is to track changes in insecurity during the Deyr season in a systematic manner. However, FSAU will not use this form to report on insecurity and confl ict in a separate report. The information will be integrated into and strengthen the FSAU analysis of food and livelihood security. This form will be used to monitor all forms of insecurity, including confl ict, tension but no fi ghting, and even the presence of roadblocks. It will also be used to try to develop initial data on the outcomes of insecurity by incorporating indicators of availability and access across the livelihood capitals. 2. One form should be completed in soft copy for each district. Where there is more than one ‘confl ict’ or incident of insecurity per district separate forms should be completed for each. 3. The form should cover analysis for the CURRENT DEYR SEASON, not the day of data collection. 4. When completing the form follow the specifi c instructions given for each question. 5. You are not expected to travel to areas of confl ict. All information should be collected through your normal information networks and during the course of the Deyr assessment fi eldwork. If the information is available but you are unable to collect information for points 1 to 17 (perhaps for personal security reasons), please note ‘Unable to collect’. 6. Do not leave blanks/uncompleted questions/sections. Reporting date – the current date Region – region name District – district name (use pre-war district names only) Analyst Name – your full name

CONFLICT INDICATORS 1. Location of the insecurity. Note the epicentre of the insecurity, where the insecurity is concentrated. 2. Magnitude. Note whether the insecurity is of limited spread or it is widespread (indicate 2a or 2b). In the space for specifi c comments try to describe the boundaries of the insecurity, for example, within a named town or spread across several named villages or even part of a district. 3. Trigger. Identify and note the initial trigger for the current dispute or insecurity (indicate Yes or No). 4. Type. Identify and note whether the insecurity is between sub-clans within the same clan or between different clans (indicate 4a or 4b). If you wish these clans and sub-clans can be named. appendix 5. Intensity. This is a SCALE of intensity, from peace to the most severe confl ict where everyone is targeted. Identify the level of intensity of the confl ict reached during the reporting period (indicate Yes or No). More than one level of confl ict may be noted, for example, ‘tense, fl uid, insecure, but no fi ghting’ and ‘clans separated, no fi ghting’. 6. Resolution. This is a SCALE of resolution, from no dialogue, through a ceasefi re, to complete confl ict resolution where all compensation has been paid. Note the phase that has been reached in the reporting period (indicate Yes or No). 7. Overall insecurity trend. Note whether the overall level of insecurity or confl ict has improved, remained unchanged, or has worsened compared to the previous month (indicate 7a or 7b or 7c). CONFLICT OUTCOMES 8. Displacement. For confl ict induced displacement only give details (region, district, settlement) of up to 4 main locations that households (or partial households) have been displaced from and where they have moved to - give the numbers of households (or partial households) displaced to each of those named locations. If there are fewer than 4 main locations note ‘no data’ in the relevant space. If households (or partial households) start returning note the number of households (or partial households) who have returned to their home area. Try to provide information that is broken down by gender (men, women, and children). 9. Human deaths and injuries. If there have been any human deaths or injuries estimate these in total for the reporting period. Note total deaths (T) and by gender if possible: Female Adult (FA), Male Adult (MA) and Children (C) 10. Loss and/or destruction of assets. If there has been any loss and/or destruction of assets specify which assets and try to quantify the level of asset loss (e.g. homes, food stores, standing crops, seeds, livestock (camels, cattle, goats and sheep), water catchments, business assets (such as shops), and tools) (by gender if this is different). 11. Access to grazing/browsing. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) (by district and nearest town) of grazing/ browsing where access has reduced due to insecurity. 12. Access to agricultural land. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) (by district and nearest town) of agricultural land where access has reduced due to insecurity. 13. Access to water sources. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) (by district and nearest town) of water sources for human and livestock use where access has reduced due to insecurity. 14. Access to markets. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) of the markets (for food purchases and/or asset sales) where access has reduced due to insecurity. 15. Access to health services. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) of health services where access has been reduced by insecurity. Note total % change (T), increase or decrease by gender if this is different: Female Adult (FA), Male Adult (MA) and Children (C) 16. Access to schools. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) of schools (dugsi) where access has been reduced by insecurity. Note total % change (T), increase or decrease by gender if this is different: Female Child (FC); Male Child (MC). 17. Roadblocks. For 1 named main commercial transport route in the district note the number of roadblocks/checkpoints between identifi ed locations (Point 1 and Point 2). For example, on the stretch of road between Point 1 and Point 2 there are 5 roadblocks/checkpoints. The same route should be reported on from month to month so that trends can be identifi ed. ADDITIONAL COMMENTS Please note any supplementary information that will strengthen the analysis in the spaces provided or on a separate sheet of paper.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 93 Issued March 7, 2007 5.7.3.5 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Flood Assessment Form 1

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT (FSAU)/FEWSNET FSAU FLOOD ASSESSMENT – FORM 1 FSAU Date: ______Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______District: ______Village: ______Livelihood zone(s): ______GPS Coordinates North: ______East: ______Key informant/focus group: (circle one)

IDENTIFICATION OF FLOOD BOUNDARY GPS coordinates No. North: East:

FLOOD AREA 1 Estimated TOTAL flooded area (hectares) =

FLOOD AREA 2 On a separate sheet of paper try to draw the flood area, including boundaries, villages flooded and key features such as roads or irrigation infrastructure

VILLAGE INFORMATION Villages within the Extent of Number of households by If there is any difference between (I) & (II) where have they moved appendix flooded area flooding in the village to villages – select one of 100%, PRE-FLOOD NOW (II) District Village 75%, 50%, (I) 25%, 0%

What is the quality of the interview? (circle one) Signed: Interviewer a. Overall reliable b. Generally reliable with areas of concern c. Unreliable Signed: Team Leader

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 94 Issued March 7, 2007 FORM 1 GUIDELINES

1. Objectives The objective of Flood Assessment FORM 1 is to provide systematic and timely evidence based analysis of the general situation. It should be used in conjunction with Flood Assessment FORM 2 and the FLOOD ASSESSMENT MARKET QUESTIONNAIRE. The Flood Assessment should also build upon information provided in routine monthly monitoring.

2. Sampling FORM 1 should be completed by the Field Analyst (as a key informant) and ‘impartial’ key informants known to the Field Analysts.

1 x FORM 1 should be completed PER FLOOD

3. How to complete FORM 1 FORM 1 identiﬁ cation It is important that the section at the top of the questionnaire should be completed in full for all FORMs. This identiﬁ es fully the interview site. GPS coordinates should be recorded for all interview sites (and waypoints sent to: 254-736321321).

TABLE – IDENTIFICATION OF FLOOD BOUNDARY Identifi cation of fl ood boundary: The aim of this section is to provide GPS coordinates (North and East) of the outer boundaries of the fl ood. This will enable the fl ood to be mapped for location and area. Firstly, with the key informants, identify the fl ood boundaries Try to provide as many GPS readings around the fl ood boundary as possible as this will increase the accuracy of the mapping exercise.

If more space is needed for the identiﬁ cation of the ﬂ ood boundary (GPS coordinates) or village information please use a separate from but ensure that the Flood Code Number is the same. appendix

TABLE – FLOOD AREA 1 Estimated TOTAL ﬂ ooded area: Use your judgement as a key informant and check with ‘impartial’ key informants known to you to provide an estimate of the TOTAL FLOODED AREA described by the GPS coordinates. Later this will be useful as a cross check with the ﬂ ooded area (crop and livestock) noted in FORM 2

TABLE – FLOOD AREA 2 In conjunction with key informants, on a separate sheet of paper try to draw the ﬂ ood area, including boundaries, villages ﬂ ooded and key features such as roads or irrigation infrastructure.

TABLE – VILLAGE INFORMATION Villages within the fl ooded area: Note the villages that have been fl ooded within the area described above (‘Identifi cation of fl ood boundary’)

Extent of fl ooding in villages: for each of the identifi ed villages described in the ‘Villages within the fl ooded area’ section try to estimate (with the key informants) the extent or degree of fl ooding in each village within the fl ooded area. Choose one of 100% fl ooded, 75%, 50%, 25% or 0% fl ooded.

Number of households by village: Provide an estimate of the PRE-FLOOD number of households for each fl ooded village. PRE-FLOOD refers to the day before the fl ood. Provide an estimate of the number of households NOW (at the time of the assessment) for each fl ooded village.

If there is a difference between the number of households PRE-FLOOD and NOW note where the households have moved to (by district and village)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 95 Issued March 7, 2007 5.7.3.6 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Flood Assessment Form 2

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT (FSAU)/FEWSNET FLOOD ASSESSMENT – FORM 2 FSAU FSAU Date: ______Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______District: ______Village: ______Livelihood zone(s): ______GPS Coordinates North: ______East: ______Key informant/focus group: (circle one)

CROPS Pre-flood Pre-flood Post-flood Post-flood Crop (specify) Cropped area flooded Expected Expected total Expected Expected total (hectares) yield/hectare (mt) production (mt) yield/hectare (mt) production (mt) Sorghum Maize Cowpea Sesame Vegetable crop 1 Vegetable crop 2 Vegetable crop 3 Fruit crop 1 Fruit crop 2 Fruit crop 3 Other Sub-total 1 POTENTIAL OFF-SEASON/FLOOD RECESSION CROPS Crop (specify) Expected area to be Expected Expected total Expected duration of harvest planted (hectares) yield/hectare (mt) production (mt) Start date End date

Sorghum Maize Cowpea Sesame Vegetable crop 1 Vegetable crop 2 Vegetable crop 3 Other Total area to be planted appendix LIVESTOCK Pre-flood Now Land type Area flooded Type of livestock Number of Where are the livestock now (hectares) livestock present (district & village) Pasture Cattle Camel Shoats Fields (fallow) Cattle Camel Shoats Fields (stalks) Cattle Camel Shoats Sub-total 2 TOTAL AREA FLOODED CROSS CHECK: Sub-total 1 + Sub-total 2 = PHYSICAL MARKET ACCESS (to be used with the market questionnaire at main and local markets) Which market served the village PRE-FLOOD? District: Market name: Which market serves the village NOW? District: Market name:

What is the quality of the interview? (circle one) Signed: Interviewer a. Overall reliable b. Generally reliable with areas of concern c. Unreliable Signed: Team Leader

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 96 Issued March 7, 2007 FORM 2 GUIDELINES

1. Objectives The objective of Flood Assessment FORM 2 is to provide systematic and timely evidence based analysis of the impact of ﬂ ooding on crop and, to a lesser extent, livestock production. It should be used in conjunction with Flood Assessment FORM 1 and the MARKET QUESTIONNAIRE. The Flood Assessment should also build upon information provided in routine monthly monitoring.

2. Sampling FORM 2 should be completed using key informants/focus groups (for example, village committees) from EACH village within the ﬂ ooded area described in FORM 1.

1 x FORM 2 should be completed PER VILLAGE ( identiﬁ ed in FORM 1).

3. How to complete FORM 2 FORM 2 identiﬁ cation It is important that the section at the top of the questionnaire should be completed in full for all FORMs. This identiﬁ es fully the interview site. GPS coordinates should be recorded for all interview sites (and waypoints sent to: 254-736321321).

TABLE - CROPS This table refers to crops that were planted BEFORE the fl ooding. The aim of this table is to work out the potential crop production losses in the absence of fl ood recession replanting. Cropped area fl ooded: Note for each planted/established and specifi ed crop (including the main important vegetable and fruit crops) the area (in hectares) that has been fl ooded within the area described in FORM 1. Pre-fl ood – Expected yield/hectare: Note the expected yield per hectare (mt) if fl ooding had not happened Pre-fl ood – Expected total production: Note the expected total production (area fl ooded x yield/hectare) if fl ooding had

not happened appendix Post-fl ood – Expected yield/hectare: Note the yield per hectare (mt) now that fl ooding has happened Post-fl ood – Expected total production: Note the total production (mt) now that fl ooding has happened Sub-total 1: Add the area fl ooded for each crop from the column (‘Cropped area fl ooded’)

TABLE – POTENTIAL OFF-SEASON/FLOOD RECESSION CROPS This table refers to crops that were planted AFTER the fl ooding Expected area to be planted: Note the total area (hectares) that will be planted for each specifi ed crop as the fl ood re- cedes Expected yield/hectare: Note the expected yield per hectare (mt) from the fl ood recession crops Expected total production: Note the expected total production (mt) from the fl ood recession crops Expected duration of harvest: Provide the date (by dekad) of the fi rst and last harvest date from the fl ood recession cropping

TABLE – LIVESTOCK This table aims to capture information about the impact of the fl ood on livestock production. For each land type (pasture, fi elds – fallow, that have not been planted, or fi elds – with stalks from crops that have been harvested) note the area that has been fl ooded and what types and numbers of livestock were present on that type of land PRE-FLOOD. PRE-FLOOD refers to the day before the fl ood.Then note where those livestock are NOW, at the time of the assessment. Sub-total 2: Add the area fl ooded for each land type

PHYSICAL MARKET ACCESS The aim of this section is to note whether the fl ooding has affected negatively physical access to the market regularly used by the fl ooded villages and to ascertain whether there has been any change in market prices due to the fl ooding. FORM 2 is to be used in conjunction with the Market Price form.

CROSS-CHECK 1: Does ‘Estimated TOTAL ﬂ ooded area’ from FORM 1 = ‘Total area ﬂ ooded’ from FORM 2 – Sub-total 1 + Sub-total 2? If there is a difference either try to explain or rectify any difference.

CROSS-CHECK 2: The ‘Area to be planted’ from ‘Table – Potential Off-Season/Flood Recession Crops’ should not be more than the ‘Area ﬂ ooded’ from ‘Table - Seasonal Crops’

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 97 Issued March 7, 2007 5.8 - Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ’06/’07 Assessment

Part 1: Area Affected, Phase Classiﬁ cation, and Evidence in Support of Phase Classiﬁ cation and Early Warning Levels

Part 1: Area Affected, Phase Classification, and Evidence in Support of Phase Classification and Early Warning Levels Affected Area Applicable Direct Evidence Indirect Evidence Phase Early Warning Reference (e.g., process or proxy indicators) Classification Outcomes x Direct Outcome Evidence in support of phase classification (Region, District, and/or x Source of Evidence x Indirect Evidence in support of phase (Tick Appropriate Livelihood Zone) (As defined by IPC x Evidence Reliability Score (1=very reliable, 2=somewhat reliable classification Box) (Tick Appropriate Boxes) Reference Table) 3=unconfirmed) x Source of Evidence x Write ‘Not Applicable’ if the outcome does not apply to situation x Evidence Reliability Score (1=very reliable, x Write ‘Not Available” if there is no reliable direct evidence 2=somewhat reliable 3=unconfirmed) x Identify the Phase Classification for each piece of evidence (GFS, CFI, AFLC, HE, F/HC) Crude mortality rate x x No Early Warning x Improvement malnutrition levels recorded in the Generally Food Acute malnutrition sentinel sites conducted in August in Bu’ale, Secure Sakow, Jilib,, Jamaame and Afmadow, ESR=2 Alert x Chronically Food Insecure x Epidemic communicable disease particularly Moderate Risk diarrhea malaria and ARI were high in the o Disease Acute Food and ACFL sentinel sites for Juba Valley coupled with Livelihood o HE limited access to health services which could Crisis o Famine/HC contribute high acute malnutrition’ ESR=2 Humanitarian High Risk Income sources: x Emergency o ACFL x Purchasing power: o HE x Food sources: Famine Food o Famine/HC Expenditures: Access/Availability x x Supply lines: x Social Access: x Others: x Sentinel site surveillance conducted in Juba August 06 revealed that >90% of the Dietary diversity households had consumed diversified meals comprising of three or more food groups. FSAU nutrition sentinel sites R=2 Water access/availability Destitution/ Displacement Civil Security

Coping

Structural Issues Hazards Livelihood Assets (5 capitals)

Part 2: Analysis of Immediate Hazard, Effects on Livelihood Strategies, and Implications for Immediate Response

Part 2: Immediate Hazards, Direct Food Security Problem, Effects on Livelihood Strategies, Risks to Monitor and Opportunities for Response ANALYSIS ACTION Affected Area Phase Immediate Direct Food Effect on Livelihood Population Projected Trend Risk Factors Opportunities for Response Classification Hazards Security Strategies Affected to Monitor Problem (Region, (Immediate Response to Improve District, and (Tick (Driving (Access, (Summary Statements) (Characteristics & (Improving, No Access to Food and Assist with Livelihood Appropriate Forces) Availability, Percent of change, Other Immediate Needs, i.e. Zone) Box) and/or Population) Uncertain, Health, Shelter, etc.) Utilization) Worsening) appendix

Generally Food Secure Chronically Food Insecure Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Humanitarian Emergency Famine

Part 3: Analysis of Underlying Structures, Effects on Livelihood Assets, and Opportunities for Mitigation in the Medium and Long Term

Part 3: Undermining Structures and Processes, Effects on Livelihood Assets, and Mitigation in the Medium and Long Term

ANALYSIS ACTION Affected Area Phase Underlying Effect on Livelihood Assets Projected Opportunities to support livelihoods and address underlying Classification Causes Trend causes (Region, District and (Tick (Environmental Degradation, (Improving, (Policy, Programmes and/or Advocacy) Livelihood Appropriate Social, Poor Governance, (Summary Statements) No Change, Zone) Box) Marginalization, etc.) Uncertain, Worsening)

Generally Physical Capital: Food Secure Social Capital: Chronically Food Financial Capital: Insecure Acute Food Natural Capital: and Livelihood Crisis Human Capital: Humanitarian Emergency Local Political Capital: Famine

Note on Estimation of Affected Population Numbers

1. Deﬁ ne geographic area that spatially delineates the affected population (Chronically Food Insecure, Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, Humanitarian Emergency, or Famine). 2. Identify the most current population estimates for this geographic area (i.e. WHO 2004 population estimates by district). 3. Adjust total population estimates to account for any known recent migration in or out of the affected area. 4. Estimate the percent of the population affected (for each Phase of Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe, Humanitarian Emergency and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis) within the affected geographic area. The most appropriate method could be by livelihood zone, wealth group, but in come instances may be more accurate to estimate by clan, gender, etc.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 98 Issued March 7, 2007 APPENDIX 6 Map 30: Livelihood Zones of Somalia

41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 50°0'0"E

Calula 12°0'0"N

DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden Qandala

Zeylac Bossaaso Lughaye AWDAL Ceerigaabo Las Qoray/Badhan Baki Berbera SANAG Iskushuban Borama Ceel Afweyne Sheikh BARI Gebiley W. GALBEED

Hargeysa Qardho Burco Owdweyne Xudun Caynabo Talex Bandar Beyla TOGDHEER SOOL 9°0'0"N 9°0'0"N Laas Caanood Buuhoodle Garowe Legend Eyl /" NUGAL Country capital Burtinle International boundary

Regional boundary Jariiban ETHIOPIA Goldogob District boundary Galkacyo n a e River c Coastline O n Cadaado MUDUG ia d Hobyo n Cabudwaaq I 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N

Dhusa Mareeb

GALGADUD Harardheere Ceel Barde Beled Weyne Ceel Bur BAKOOL Livelihood zones HIIRAN Addun Pastoral: Mixed sheep & goats, camel Rab-Dhuure Xudur Awdal border & coastal towns: Petty trading, fishing, salt mining Dolo Ceel Dheere Bay-Bakool Agro-Pastoral High potential sorghum: Cattle, camel Wajid Tayeglow Bulo Barde Luuq Central regions Agro-Pastoral: Cowpea, sheep & goats, camel, cattle Aden Yabal Coastal Deeh: Sheep Beled Hawa Jalalaqsi Dawo Pastoral: Shoats, cattle, camel Baydhaba Cadale Garbaharey East Golis Pastoral: Frankinncense livelihood zones map Jowhar M. SHABELLE Fishing Qansax Dheere Gagaab Pastoral: Frankincense

3°0'0"N Wanle Weyne 3°0'0"N GEDO BAY Guban Pastoral: Sheep, goats & camel Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad Hawd Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats Afgoye BANADIR Hiran Agro-Pastoral Baardheere Dinsor /" Hiran riverine: Sorghum, maize, cattle & shoats MOGADISHU Qoryoley Juba pump irrigation: Tobacco, onions, maize Sakow Kurtun Warrey Marka Kakaar-Dharor Pastoral: Sheep, goats, camel M. JUBA L. & M. Shabelle Agro-Pastoral Irrigated: Maize/Sorghum & cattle Sablale L. SHABELLE L. & M. Shabelle Agro-Pastoral rain-fed: Maize,cowpeas, sesame & cattle Bu'aale Brava Lower Juba Agro-Pastoral: Maize & cattle KENYA Hagar North-West Agro-Pastoral: Sorghum, cattle North-West Valley Agro-Pastoral: Irrigated vegetables, shoats Afmadow Jilib Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel Potato zone & vegetables Shabelle riverine: Maize, fruits & vegetables Jamaame L. JUBA Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats

0°0'0" South-East Pastoral: Cattle, sheep & goats 0°0'0" Kismayo Southern Agro-Pastoral: Camel, cattle, sorghum ± Southern Juba riverine: Maize, sesame, fruits & vegetables Southern coastal pastoral: Goats, cattle 020 40 80 120 160 200 Badhadhe Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats Kilometers Togdheer Agro-Pastoral: Sheep, goats & vegetables Urban West Golis Pastoral: Goats, camel, sheep Datum: WGS84 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E Data Source: FSAU, 200250°0'0"E admin. layers: UNDP, 1998

Updated: April, 2006 Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsausomali.org P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-3745734 fax:254-20-3740598 FSAU is managed by FAO, funded by EC and USAID. FSAU Partners are FEWS NET, WFP, FAO, UNOCHA, SCF-UK, UNICEF, CARE, UNDP The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 99 Issued March 7, 2007 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 100 Issued March 7, 2007