SOMALIA Food Security Update March 2009 Issued in Collaboration with FAO/Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU)

SOMALIA Food Security Update March 2009 Issued in collaboration with FAO/Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) • The consensus Climate Outlook Forum (COF23) recently Figure 1. Current estimated food security convened in Mombasa, Kenya has forecast an increased conditions (January to March 2009) likelihood of below normal gu (April‐June) rainfall in parts of southern and central Somalia due to the presence of a La Niña, a phenomenon which is associated with drier‐than‐ normal conditions in Eastern Africa. • Due to poor deyr rains in late 2008 and a harsh Jilaal (January‐March) dry season, water sources in many areas, including the central regions, parts of Gedo, Hiran, and Juba, have dried up earlier than normal, leading to water shortages. A deepening of the water crisis can be expected through the onset of the gu rains in mid‐April. • A decline in remittance inflows has occurred during the last several months following the global recession and a subsequent increase in unemployment among the Somali diaspora in Europe and North America. This may contribute to a further deterioration in food security among urban populations. Source: FSAU and FEWS NET Seasonal calendar and critical events Source: FEWS NET Current food security situation Food security in most of south and central Somalia continues to be affected by the impact of poor deyr production in 2008/09, uncertain market conditions, civil insecurity, unstable income sources, hyperinflation, and exorbitant prices for food and other essential commodity. As a result, 3.2 million people, including about 700,000 urban dwellers, are highly or extremely food insecure (Figure 1). Meanwhile, field reports confirm that growing water scarcity has resulted in a dramatic increase in water prices, especially in parts of Ballamballe, Abudwak, Guriceel, Dhusamareb, and eastern parts of Adaado FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Somalia 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in Nairobi, Kenya this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Washington DC 20006 [email protected] Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/somalia SOMALIA Food Security Update March 2009 districts of Galdadud region. In Harardheere and Eldheer districts of Galgadud region water prices are 115 and 150 percent higher, respectively, than at the same time last year. Other areas where acute water shortages have been reported include Badhadhe district (Lower Juba), parts of Middle Juba, and Gedo where deyr rainfall was below normal. The upcoming gu season is especially critical for food and fodder production this year, given that the performance of the deyr season was poor, contributing to a 120,000 MT cereal shortfall, and because the prevailing Jilaal season has been particularly harsh. However, the current forecast indicates an increased chance of below‐normal rainfall during this period, which would aggravate the already precarious food insecurity situation in rural areas where crop and livestock production are the mainstay of the economy. Seasonal progress Figure 2. NDVI anomaly February 28 2009 The performance of the last deyr season, in terms of intensity, and temporal and spatial distribution, was poor, with parts of many regions receiving below‐normal rains from October to December. The impact of the poor deyr season has been compounded by a drier‐than‐ normal Jilaal dry season since early January, which has led to high evaporation rates and an early depletion of rangeland resources. Field reports and satellite imagery also confirm that dry conditions persist (Figure 2), contributing to a deepening crisis in pastoral areas. In addition, most of the underground water reservoirs (berked), natural ponds, water catchments, and other water sources remain dry, leading to abnormal pastoral migration to water points and riverine areas. The increased distance between water points and grazing areas continues to affect livestock productivity and value, thereby affecting pastoral household’s food security. Of all the regions, Galgadud and Mudug are the worst affected by the current water crises. As most of the traditional water sources (berkads) are already dry, water trucking for humans and livestock continues in these areas. Similarly, in Gedo and parts of Middle and Lower Juba regions, water reservoirs are also dry, the price of water is Sources: FEWS NET, NOAA, CPC already high, and it is expected to increase further during March and April until the gu rains begin. For instance, the price of water is as high Figure 3. Greater Horn of Africa Consensus as USD10 per 200 liter drum in Badhadhe district of Lower Juba region. Climate Outlook for March to May 2009 The Climate Outlook Forum (COF23), recently convened in Mombasa, Kenya by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and partners, forecast an 80 percent probability for below‐normal to normal rainfall over the eastern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), including Somalia (Figure 3). The most recent IRI precipitation forecasts also indicate an increased likelihood of below‐normal rainfall in parts on southern or central Somalia due to the presence of a La Niña, a phenomenon which is associated with drier‐than‐normal conditions in Eastern Africa. The forecast further indicates that the March to May 2009 rainfall season is likely to exhibit a pattern similar to that of the same season in 2002, 2005 and 2007 (analog years), all of which had mixed performance, but were largely below normal. The magnitude of the drier‐than‐normal conditions depends on the intensity of the La‐Nina event and the prevailing Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the neighboring Indian Ocean. Presently, the southwestern Indian Ocean is abnormally warm around Madagascar Famine Early Warning Systems Network Source : ICPAC2 SOMALIA Food Security Update March 2009 and the Mozambique Channel, resulting in the weakening of moisture flow into the eastern sector of the GHA. If this condition persists, as anticipated, Somalia is likely to receive erratic and below normal gu (April‐June) rainfall. The performance of the gu rains, is crucial for the replenishment of rangeland resources and the production of crops that are usually harvested in August in central and southern Somalia. The gu crop constitutes about 70 percent of annual cereal production. If the gu rains are poor it would be the fourth consecutive poor season in large parts of south‐central Somalia. Slowing remittance inflows Remittances from the Somali diaspora normally rise during times of drought and conflict and have an important economic impact, as they generate positive multiplier effects while stimulating various sectors of the local economy. They also play a very important role by helping to smooth consumption within affected households and create a buffer against the negative effects of shocks, like the sale of breeding animals and other productive assets for food purchases. There are, however, signs that this inflow of remittances has declined in recent months. Anecdotal evidence and informal discussions with some recipient households and four of the leading Somalia Hawala (remittance) companies confirm a drop in remittance inflows during the last several months, particularly from North America and Europe. For instance, one of the leading Hawala companies, with many branches in south and central Somalia, confirmed a 10 percent drop in remittance inflows during February 2009 alone and a 5‐8 percent decline during the previous three months. This is attributable to the recession in these countries and a subsequent increase in unemployment among the Somali immigrant community. Figure 4. Cowpea nominal retail prices in Galkayo Although in most of main urban centers, a significant portion of remittances are used for investment, most remittances, which range 45,000 between USD 50‐300/month, are used for 40,000 household consumption, including education 35,000 and health expenses. Given the prevailing 30,000 global economic crisis, it is conceivable that 25,000 remittance inflows into the country could SOS/kg 20,000 drop further, leading to worsening food 15,000 security conditions, especially in urban areas 10,000 where the bulk of the remittances are 5,000 received. According to the FSAU‐led post‐deyr 0 JUL analysis, the average cost of the minimum SEP FEB JUN DEC JAN OCT APR AUG MAY NOV MAR basket (food and non‐food essentials) in 2003/04 ‐ 2007/08 AVG 2007/08 2008/09 urban centers has already increased 160‐200 percent during the last twelve months. Since Source: FSAU and FEWS NET Figure 5. Rice nominal retail prices in Mogadishu remittances are an important source of income for large numbers of urban dwellers in Somalia, its decline, particularly at these very 50,000 difficult times, could result in more people 45,000 becoming highly food insecure. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Markets and trade SOS/kg 20,000 The prices of essential food and non‐food 15,000 10,000 items have shown a slight decline throughout 5,000 the country but still remain at an all time high 0 due to a combination of factors, including JUL FEB SEP DEC JAN JUN OCT APR AUG MAY consecutive seasons of poor cereal crop 2003/04 ‐ 2007/08NOV AVG 2007/08 MAR 2008/09 production, the devaluation of Somali Shilling, Source: FSAU and FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 SOMALIA Food Security Update March 2009 hyperinflation, and increased demand for local cereals. For instance, in the main Galkayo market, cowpea prices remain 233 percent above the 2003‐08 average, although they started to decline early this year due to increased supplies from production areas (Figure 4). Similar trends were also observed for other staple commodities (e.g., maize and sorghum) in different markets (Price Annex). These high cereals prices have reduced purchasing power across livelihoods, leading to a deteriorating food security situation.

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