FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 March 7, 2007 2006/07 Post Deyr Analysis Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia Kalson Towers, Parklands Box 1230 Village Market Nairobi, Kenya Ph: 254-20-3745734 Fax: 254-20-3740598 Web site: www.fsausomali.org Email: [email protected] Technical and Technical Partners Funding Agencies Managerial Support European Commission USAID FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 i Issued March 7, 2007 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 ii Issued March 7, 2007 Acknowledgment FSAU would like to thank all our partner agencies for their participation and cooperation in this assessment and analysis. This crucial assessment would not have been possible without the effi cient and timely logistical and research assistance provided by the fi eld staff of all our partners. This assessment and analysis would not have been possible without the dedication and expertise of FSAU’s thirty one fi eld based analysts who continue to work under very diffi cult conditions. FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 iii Issued March 7, 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary 1 1.1 Key Findings 1 1.2 Regional Highlights 5 1.3 Sector Highlights 7 2. Analytical Processes And Methods 12 3 Sector Reports 15 3.1 Climate and Rainfall Outcome 15 3.1.1 Lessons Learned From Deyr ‘06/07: Flood Early Warning, Contingency Planning and Response 18 3.2 Civil Insecurity 19 3.3 Deyr ’06/07 Cereal Crop Production 22 3.4 Livestock Production and Export 27 3.4.1 FSAU’s Most Likely Scenario: RVF and its Impact on Food and Livelihood Security among Juba and Gedo Agro-Pastoralists and Pastoralists 32 3.5 Market Analysis and Trends 33 3.6 Nutrition Overview 34 4. Regional Analysis 35 4.1 Southern Somalia 35 4.1.1 Gedo Region 35 4.1.2 Lower and Middle Juba 40 4.1.3 Bay and Bakool 46 4.1.4 Lower and Middle Shabelle 51 4.1.5 Hiran Region 56 4.2 Central Region 61 4.3 Northeast and Northwest Somalia 64 4.3.1 1997/98 and 2000/01 Livestock Bans and their Impact on Food and Livelihood Security 68 5. Appendix 70 5.1 Components of the Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classifi cation 70 5.1.1 Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classifi cation Reference Table 71 5.2 Time-series of the Integrated Phase Classifi cations (IPC) Maps for Somalia 2004 – 2007 73 5.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation by Region from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 74 5.3.1 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Gedo from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 74 5.3.2 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Lower and Middle Juba from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 75 5.3.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Bay and Bakool from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 76 5.3.4 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 77 5.3.5 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Central from Gu 2006 to Deyr ‘06/07 78 5.3.6 Progression of Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions from Gu 2006 to Deyr ’06-7 79 5.4 Post Deyr ‘06/07 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC for the period of January – June ’07 80 5.4.1 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Region 80 5.4.2 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by District 81 5.4.3 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Livelihood Group 82 5.5 List of Partners that Participated in the FSAU Post Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment 83 5.6 ‘Best Planning Estimates’ of Population Displacement in Shabelle and Juba Riverine Basins –Deyr ‘06/07 84 5.7 Post Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment Process, Analytical Tools and Timeline 85 5.7.1 Post Deyr 06/07 Assessment Timeline 85 5.7.2 Fsau Regional Presentations on the Post Deyr 2006/7 Results 85 5.7.3 Assessment Instruments and Tools 86 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 iv Issued March 7, 2007 5.7.3.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 86 5.7.3.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 89 5.7.3.3 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Market Questionnaire 91 5.7.3.4 FSAU Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment: Confl ict Monitoring Form & Notes 92 5.7.3.5 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Flood Assessment Form 1 & Notes 94 5.7.3.6 FSAU Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment: Flood Assessment Form 2 & Notes 96 5.8 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ’ 06/’07 Assessment 98 6.0 Livelihood Zones of Somalia Map 99 LIST OF ACRONYMS ARI Acute Respiratory Infection CCPP Caprine Pleura Pneumonia CMR Crude Mortality Rate FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEWS/NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FSAU Food Security Analysis Unit GAM Global Acute Malnutrition HA Hectare HRG Humanitarian Response Group IDP Internally Displaced Persons IDS Institute for Development Studies Lt Litre LZ Livelihood Zone MCH Maternal and Child Health Center Mt Metric Tonne MUAC Mid Upper Arm Circumference NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index PWA Post War Average SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition SlSh Somaliland Shilling SoSh Somali Shilling TFC Thearupetic Feeding Center U5 Under Five WFH Weight for Height HE Humanitarian Emergency AFLC Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 v Issued March 7, 2007 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Estimated Rural Population by Region in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups and Summary Table. 2 Table 2: Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classifi cation Reference Table (FAO/FSAU June 2006) 4 Table 3: FSAU Post Deyr 06/07 Assessment Overall Timeline 12 Table 4: Summary of Flood Impact in Terms of Population Displacement (#) & Flooded Areas (ha) 18 Table 5: Deyr ’06/’07 Crop Production (Maize and Sorghum) Estimate in Southern Somalia 22 Table 6: Northwest Gu/Karan ’06 Cereal Crop Production Establishment Estimates 23 Table 7: Cereal Balance Sheet 26 Table 8: Water, Rangeland and Livestock Body Conditions 27 Table 9: Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production 28 Table 10: Livestock Exports from Berbera January – December ’06 29 Table 11: Livestock Exports from Bossaso January – December ’06 29 Table 12: Livestock Export Trends: Bosaaso & Berbera Ports Pre - & Post War 30 Table 13: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Belet weyn & Mogadishu Abattoir (January – December ‘06) 30 Table 14: RVF Risk Scenario Analysis 32 Table 15: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Gedo 35 Table 16: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Gedo 36 Table 17: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Juba 40 Table 18: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Juba 41 Table 19: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Bay and Bakol 46 Table 20: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Bay and Bakool 47 Table 21: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Hiran 56 Table 22: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups in Hiran 57 LIST OF MAPS Map 1: Somalia Food Security Situation Analysis: Post Deyr 06/07 Projection, January Through June 2007 3 Map 2: Somalia - Deyr ‘06/07 Assessment Data Point Locations 13 Map 3: Cumulative Rainfall (mm), Oct-Dec, ’06 15 Map 4: Percent of long term mean Oct-Dec, ’06 15 Map 5: RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 2006 15 Map 6: RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 1997 15 Map 7: Deyr ‘06 as % of Deyr 97 (Oct-Dec) 17 Map 8: Livelihood Zones used in Time Series Analysis 17 Map 9: Insecurity Outcomes for Food and Livelihood Security (October – December ‘06) 19 Map 10: Somalia Population Displacement - December ’06 20 Map 11: Insecurity: Most Likely Risk Scenario (January – June 2007) 21 Map 12: Deyr ’06/’07 Production By District 22 Map 13: Livestock Migration Trends Oct - Dec ‘06 27 Map 14: Nutrition Situation - July 2006 34 Map 15: Nutrition Situation - January 2007 34 Map 16: Gedo Valley Livelihood Systems 35 Map 17: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Gedo 35 Map 18: Juba Valley Livelihood Systems 40 Map 19: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Juba 40 Map 20: Sorghum Belt Livelihood Systems 46 Map 21: Food Security Phase Classifi cation Bay and Bakool 46 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 12 vi Issued March 7, 2007 Map 22: Shabelle and Cowpea Belt Livelihood Systems 51 Map 23: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Shabelle 51 Map 24: Hiran Livelihood Systems 56 Map 25: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - Hiran 56 Map 26: Central Region: Livelihood Systems 61 Map 27: Food Security Phase Classifi cation Central Region 61 Map 28: North and Central Regions: Livelihood Systems 64 Map 29: Food Security Phase Classifi cation - North 64 Map 30: Livelihood Zones of Somalia 99 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Rainfall Performances and NDVI forBakool, Bay, M & L Shabele Valley, Awdal, Togdheer, Sanaag, Nugal, Galgadud, Juba and Gedo 16 Figure 2: Historic NDVI % Deviation from Long Term Average 17 Figure 3: Deyr ’06/’07 Cereal Production Trends (1995- 2006) 22 Figure 4: Regional