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Up to €850Bn of Issuance from the EU in Just Over Four Years Will Reshape Bond Markets

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Up to €850Bn of Issuance from the EU in Just Over Four Years Will Reshape Bond Markets JULY 25 2020 ISSUE 2343 www.ifre.com Up to €850bn of issuance from the EU in just over four years will reshape bond markets Possible €225bn of green bonds from EU to prompt seismic shift for sustainable finance Ant Group joins Star listing frenzy: Hong Kong/Shanghai IPO to raise US$20bn PLUS: ESG Capital Markets Roundtable 2020 PEOPLE & MARKETS EQUITIES STRUCTURED FINANCE PEOPLE & MARKETS Goldman reaches Bill Ackman-led Sudden supply In London and US$3.9bn US$4bn SPAC surge leaves UK New York, settlement over hunts big RMBS pipeline bankers trickle 1MDB game dry BACKûTOûOFlCEûLIFE 05 06 09 10 1 IFR Cover 2343.indd 1 24/07/2020 19:38:33 IFR’s ESG Financing Briefing IFR’s ESG Financing Briefing is a subscription service offering daily news, data and analysis on green and ESG financing from across the Refinitiv Capital Markets Insight Team. To subscribe or learn more, e-mail ifr.clientsupport@refinitiv.com Upfront OPINION INTERNATIONAL FINANCING REVIEW Good luck with that ITûISûTALKINGûABOUTûBYûTHEûENDûOFû ûTHEû%#"ûWILLûHAVEûTOû PLAYûAûPIVOTALûROLE HEûCORONAVIRUSûPANDEMICûISûCHANGINGûTHEûlNANCIALû 4HEû%5SûFUNDINGûOFlCIALSûnûASûEXPERIENCEDûASûTHEYûAREûnû TLANDSCAPEûINûWAYSûTHATûNOûONEûCOULDûHAVEûIMAGINED û COULDûBEûFORGIVENûIFûTHEYûGULPEDûATûTHEûTHOUGHTûOFûWHATûTHEYû NOWHEREûMOREûSOûTHANûTHEûGOVERNMENTûBONDûMARKETS AREûABOUTûTOûEMBARKûONû,ITTLEûWONDERûTHEYûINTENDûTOûGOûONû )TûHASûBEENûAûTUMULTUOUSûFEWûMONTHSûFORûSOVEREIGNû HOLIDAYûFORûAûFEWûWEEKSûBEFOREûTHEYûGETûSTUCKûIN lNANCINGûINû%UROPEûINûPARTICULAR ûWITHûRECORDûISSUANCE û 'OODûLUCKûTRYINGûTOûRELAXûONûTHEûBEACH ûGUYS UNPRECEDENTEDûORDERûBOOKSûANDûLANDMARKûDEALSûSUCHûASû 'ERMANYSûlRSTûCONVENTIONALûEUROûSYNDICATIONû"UTûTHEûREALû GAME CHANGERûCAMEûLASTûWEEKûTHEû%5Sûh.EXTû'ENERATIONû Star vision %5vûRECOVERYûFUNDINGûPROGRAMME 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!NTSûCONCURRENTûLISTINGûWILLûREQUIREûDELICATEûHANDLINGûTOû GOVERNMENTûPAPERûANDûTHATûOFûOTHERû%UROPEANûAGENCIES BALANCEûTHOSEûDYNAMICS &ORûSOME û%5ûBONDSûMARKûTHEûlRSTûSTEPûTOWARDSûDEBTû 4HEREûISûAûLONGER TERMûISSUEûATûSTAKEûHERE ûTOOû!ûSUCCESSFULû MUTUALISATION ûEVENûTHOUGHûTHEûRECOVERYûFUNDûISûMEANTûTOûBEû 3TARûmOATûFORûAûCOMPANYûOFû!NTSûSIZEûANDûCALIBREûWILLûOFFERûAû TEMPORARY CLEARûCOMPARISONûOFûLIQUIDITYûANDûVALUATIONSûBETWEENû(ONGû "UTûWHILEûITûISûTRUEûTHATûTEMPORARYû%5ûINSTITUTIONSûHAVEûAû +ONGûANDû3HANGHAI ûANDûISûSUREûTOûCATCHûTHEûATTENTIONûOFû HABITûOFûBECOMINGûPERMANENT ûTHERESûSTILLûAûLOTûOFûPOLITICALû OTHERû#HINESEûTECHûGIANTSû4HATûOPENSûTHEûDOORûFORûAûGRADUALû WRANGLINGûTOûGOûTHROUGHûBEFOREûCOMMONûFUNDINGûBECOMESûAû SHIFTûTOûMAINLANDûMARKETSûASûANDûWHENûCAPITALûCONTROLSûALLOWû MATTERûOFûFACTû4HEû%5SûPRESENCE ûASûBIGûASûITûWILLûBE ûWONTû IT SEEûTHEûDEMISEûOFûINDEPENDENTûSOVEREIGNûISSUANCE #HARLESû,I ûCHAIRMANûOFûTHEû(ONGû+ONGûEXCHANGEûOPERATOR û )NVESTORSûWILLûALSOûHAVEûTOûWEIGHûUPûWHATûTHEû%5SûPLANSû QUICKLYûWELCOMEDû!NTSûPLANSûASûANûENDORSEMENTûOFû(ONGû MEANûFORûTHEû%#"SûBONDûBUYINGûPROGRAMMESû4HERESûLITTLEû +ONGSûFUTUREû5NFORTUNATELYûFORû(ONGû+ONG ûTHOUGH ûTHEû DOUBTûTHATûFORûTHEû%5ûTOûSUCCESSFULLYûRAISEûTHEûAMOUNTûOFûDEBTû FUTUREûOFû#HINESEû)0/SûMAYûBELONGûTOûTHEû3TARûMARKET International Financing Review July 25 2020 1 2 IFR Upfront 2343 p1.indd 1 24/07/2020 20:27:21 Top news Seismic shift for sustainable finance 04 Goldman’s 1MDB settlement 05 Ant joins Star frenzy 06 EU surge to reshape bond markets People & Markets Up to €850bn of issuance coming – although actual total may be much smaller BY ROBERT HOGG though some analysts are sceptical It would also mean a dramatic every other week from ABOUTûWHETHERûTHEûõBNûlGUREû increase in the EU’s stock of September onwards with The EUROPEAN UNION is primed to is realistic and think NGEU may outstanding bonds from the benchmark-sized deals. leap from second-tier issuer to get watered down. current level of about €52bn. “The EU said to expect to issue bond market colossus, Commerzbank analysts, for Financial markets reacted every two weeks, meaning that transforming the landscape as it example, say the EU Council positively to the announcement, the average issue size in the SURE races through up to €850bn of may eventually compromise on with the spread between Italy period should be around €5bn and funding in just over four years. a recovery fund nearer €600bn and Germany 10-year bonds at the second-half total amount Last week’s agreement to set up and, assuming that it does, total its tightest since late March. should represent around €50bn,” the €750bn “Next Generation EU” issuance across it and the SURE “The fact that this agreement said Patrick Barbe, head of funding programme – and to fund scheme will be more like has been struck is symbolic of a %UROPEANûINVESTMENT GRADEûlXEDû it through debt issuance – in €530bn, based on only a certain DESIREûAMONGSTûTHEûlNANCIALLYû income at Neuberger Berman. response to the coronavirus percentage of the recovery stronger nations to support those pandemic will see the EU become fund’s loan portion being drawn. in a weaker position, and as such GOING GREEN the world’s biggest issuer of But even by that analysis, the the convergence of risk premia About 30% of the NGEU is syndicated bonds, shaking up the EU’s average annual borrowing that we have seen is natural,” said earmarked for climate protection. government bond market in the needs are likely to be well in excess !NDREWû*ACKSON ûHEADûOFûlXEDû Issuing about €225bn as green process. Most of that total will OFûõBNûINûn ûAûlGUREû income at Federated Hermes. bonds would make the EU the come from a Recovery and that dwarfs incumbent market biggest issuer in that market Resilience Facility of €672.5bn, heavyweights such as KfW, which COMING SOON globally (see separate story). (including €360bn of loans and plans to issue €65bn this year. 4HEûlRSTûSLUGûOFû%5ûISSUANCEûWILLû With its green aims and other €312.5bn of grants). emanate from the SURE social objectives in mind, the EU is “It will transform capital CALM BEFORE THE STORM programme, with deals likely expected to predominantly target markets,” said Philip Brown, head EU issuance volumes (€bn) from September. longer-dated tenors, although a of public sector DCM at Citigroup. 8 “The SURE programme will be syndicate banker said that short- “We’ve never seen issuance on 7 the roadmap for the recovery term funding instruments such as this scale before and it is a truism 6 fund, which is not likely to start bills or commercial paper would that supply creates demand.” 5 issuance until early 2021,” said be an obvious choice for The NGEU fund comes on top Neal Ganatra, head of the SSA lightening the issuance load. 4 of the €100bn “Support to syndicate desk at Deutsche Bank. h3HORT
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