Campaign professionalism and the ‘birth’ of democracy. Analyzing the 2012 first multi-candidate presidential election in post-revolutionary Egypt Dalia Elsheikh July 2017 Thesis submitted for the degree of Ph.D. in the Faculty of Media and Communication, Bournemouth University “This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with its author and due acknowledgement must always be made of the use of any material contained in, or derived from, this thesis.” 2 Abstract This thesis studies the first Egyptian presidential election campaigns after the 25th January 2011 revolution. It aims to answer two questions: to what extent this election was professionalised and to what extent the levels of professionalism impacted the democratisation process of Egypt. To answer these questions, the study analyses the top five presidential candidates’ campaigns, applying the professionalisation index to them; this consists of two sub-indices that assess campaign structures and campaign strategies, offers insights into the organizational and tactical development of the campaigns and how they viewed the functions of campaigning in relation to this contest. The study does this through analytical qualitative research involving interviews with campaign staff and managers as well as analysis of secondary documents and contemporary media reports. The thesis demonstrates the crucial role campaign professionalism played in the 2012 Egyptian presidential elections. The thesis infers that the professionalism of the 2012 elections campaigns might have been the main factor that led to the success of both Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq in the first round of elections. The thesis also argues that the professionalisatism – as applied during this election through a “do anything to win” or a “win at all costs” approach - had negative implications on the democratization process of Egypt, as it hindered Egypt’s transition to functional if thin democracy. On the contrary, it led Egypt to remain trapped in its transitional period. 3 List of contents Abstract 3 List of abbreviations and acronyms 6 List of Tables and Figures 7 Acknowledgments 8 Chapter One Introduction 9 Overview 9 Rationale of the study 10 Research questions 10 Thesis structure 11 Chapter Two Democracy and Professionalisation: definitions 13 and debate On Democracy 13 Measuring democracy 14 Democratisation 16 Elections 18 Campaigns and democracy 20 Campaigns’ Functions 23 Campaigns’ evolution 27 The professionalization of election 30 campaigns Measuring professionalism 32 Professionalism and democracy 39 Chapter Three Introduction to the 2012 presidential election in 42 Egypt A Polarised Public Sphere 42 4 Paving the Way towards the Election 44 Preparing for Elections 48 The First Round of Elections 52 Political Developments between the 54 Two Electoral Rounds The Second Round of elections 57 After the Election 59 Chapter Four Methodology 65 Chapter Five Campaigns’ structures and strategies 73 Mohamed Morsi’s campaign 74 Ahmed Shafiq’s campaign 94 Amr Moussa’s campaign 115 Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh’s 138 Campaign Hamdeen Sabahi’s campaign 155 Chapter Six Analysing the campaigns in light of their 173 Professionalisation Chapter Seven Conclusion: The impact of campaigns’ 246 professionalism on the democratisation process in Egypt Professionalisation and democracy 246 Impact of professionalisation during 249 Morsi’s presidency Morsi’s ‘democracy’ 266 Americanisation or professionalisation 270 Professionalisation index in nascent 270 democracies An index for campaigns’ practioners 277 Bibliography 289 5 List of abbreviations and acronyms Al-Masry Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper Youm7 Al-youm Al-Sabea newspaper SCC Supreme Constitutional Court Brotherhood Muslim Brotherhood FJP Freedom and Justice Party NDP National democratic party PEC Presidential election committee SCAF The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces 6 List of Tables and Figures Presidential candidates 57 Egypt in Numbers 59 Top five candidates’ results 59 Second round of elections’ results 59 Revolutionary candidates’ results 264 Democratisation cycle 278 7 Acknowledgments Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my parents for all their support and help through the past years. I would also like to thank my father for financially sponsoring this project. Without his support, this project would have never been accomplished. I am indebted to my supervisors Doctor Darren Lilleker and Professor Barry Richards for their unlimited help, patient guidance and encouragement. I have been extremely luckily having supervisors who are interested in my work and my development. I would also like to thank Dr. Darren Lilleker again for his prompt responses to my many emails and for meeting me in London when I was not able to travel to Bournemouth due to my work commitments. Besides my advisors, I would like to thank Dr. Dan Jackson, Dr. Anastasia Veneti and Dr. Fiona Cowie for their valuable advice during my upgrade viva. My sincere thanks also go to Jan Lewis for facilitating all the administrative tasks for me. Special thanks go to Dr. Ali El Din Hilal, Emeritus Professor at Cairo University for the lengthy telephone call that was full of advice and encouragement. Finally, this project would have never been completed without the help of the campaign staff who agreed to be interviewed for the sake of this project. 8 Chapter One: Introduction 1.1 Overview The year 2012 can be considered a watershed in Egypt’s history as it came after a revolution that ended the rule of Hosni Mubarak, who had been in power for thirty years. For the first time in Egyptian history, not only in modern history, Egyptians were able to choose their ruler. There had been no form of presidential elections from the first ruler King Menes (3100 BC) taking power until the election of President Hosni Mubarak (2005) which did not follow the norms of democratic elections. Even after the 1952 revolution, Egyptians were not able to choose their president through multi- candidate elections. They were only able to do this through a referendum, where they had to say yes or no to one person, who was always the president. In 2005, and after huge pressure from different powers in the country, President Mubarak changed article 76 in the constitution which allowed for a multi-candidate presidential election for the first time in Egyptian history. However, this election was widely seen as a façade, as it was already previously known that Mubarak was the one who was going to win. In 2011, the Egyptian revolution took place and for the first time in the history of the country, Egypt witnessed a real multi-candidate presidential election in 2012; where no one – even pollsters – was able to predict the winner. The period prior to this election and the election result itself showed many surprises and unpredictable results. This indicates that this field still requires some attention by experts and scholars to know how elections work in a country in its transitional phase such as Egypt at that time. For instance, all polls conducted before the elections showed that the competition was mainly between two candidates, the first being Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who had previously been dismissed from the Muslim Brotherhood. The second frontrunner candidate was Amr Moussa who portrayed himself as a defector from the Mubarak regime. However, the actual results of the first round of the elections showed completely the opposite as the two winners were Ahmed Shafiq, the last Prime Minister during the Mubarak era, and Mohamed Morsi, the head of the Freedom and Justice Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. Despite the role of the people in demanding change, the revolution’s candidate, Hamdeen Sabahi came in third 9 place. Another feature of the campaigning process is that many candidates refused to use some forms of campaigning. For example, all candidates except Moussa and Aboul Fotouh refused to participate in any form of debates. Another controversial feature of this election was the winner: Mohamed Morsi, who entered the election by chance, became the president of Egypt. Was this the result Egyptians were looking for? What was the role of campaigning in this result? To what extent did the campaign conduct and its result impact upon the democratisation process in Egypt? These are some of the questions this thesis will answer. 1.2 Rationale of the study This thesis presents the first analytical study of the levels of professionalism of campaigns in the 2012 Egyptian presidential elections. It provides the story of the five main campaigns by applying the professionalisation index to analyse their structures (hardware) and strategies (software). The thesis also provides an evaluation of the application of the professionalization index to nascent democracies, and the impact of campaign professionalism on such democracies. Due to the novelty of the whole topic, the results of this analysis add significantly to the understanding of campaigning and create an academic base for further studies within similar fragile democratic systems. Furthermore, it should offer campaigners practical guidance when approaching future elections. 1.2 Research questions This thesis aims to explore campaign professionalism in the 2012 presidential elections and to what extent this affected the democratisation process in Egypt. The thesis will focus on analysing the Egyptian case by answering these main research questions: 10 1.