CFA Institute Research Challenge hosted by CFA Society Singapore National University of Singapore Singapore Post Ltd Initial Opinion SELL Equity | Singapore | Industrials, Logistics 30 January 2015 Initiate at Sell; Stalling Cash Cow, Declining Albus Securities Margins Chia Guo Cong +65 9877 2219 Albus Securities (NUS Singapore)
[email protected] Initiate Sell with S$1.51 PT Chiu Haidee +65 8393 1373 We initiate coverage on Singapore Post with a Sell rating and $1.51 price target. We see much lower margins than the street (FY17e operating margin of 17.7% vs street’s 19.2%) for 2 reasons. Albus Securities (NUS Singapore)
[email protected] Firstly, mail margins are on a structural decline due to reducing economies of scale on lower volumes. Secondly, low margins in logistics are unlikely to lift off, as intensifying competition Goh Shi Bin +65 8399 4138 from better positioned rivals restrains SingPost’s logistics volume growth, and consequently Albus Securities (NUS Singapore) logistics margins due to high operating leverage. Disappointing logistics volumes lead to slower
[email protected] revenue growth through FY17 (10% p.a. vs street’s 12%). Finally, market optimism over the Yap Chew Guan +65 9139 9438 SingPost-Alibaba JV (as reflected in the 40x PE of the logistics segment) is unlikely to fully deliver, Albus Securities (NUS Singapore) as SingPost is at a disadvantageous position in competing for Alibaba’s volumes between China
[email protected] and ASEAN/ANZ. Yong Guo Hao +65 9117 6016 Albus Securities (NUS Singapore) Core mail business afflicted with structurally declining margins
[email protected] The margin of the core business (63%-84% of group OP) has fallen by 10ppt over the past 8 years, and we foresee a further 8ppt loss over the next decade.