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POSTAL SAVINGS Reaching Everyone in Asia

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POSTAL SAVINGS Reaching Everyone in Asia POSTAL SAVINGS Reaching Everyone in Asia Edited by Naoyuki Yoshino, José Ansón, and Matthias Helble ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK INSTITUTE Postal Savings - Reaching Everyone in Asia Edited by Naoyuki Yoshino, José Ansón, and Matthias Helble ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK INSTITUTE © 2018 Asian Development Bank Institute All rights reserved. First printed in 2018. ISBN: 978 4 89974 083 4 (Print) ISBN: 978 4 89974 084 1 (PDF) The views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), its Advisory Council, ADB’s Board or Governors, or the governments of ADB members. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. ADBI uses proper ADB member names and abbreviations throughout and any variation or inaccuracy, including in citations and references, should be read as referring to the correct name. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “recognize,” “country,” or other geographical names in this publication, ADBI does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works without the express, written consent of ADBI. ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan www.adbi.org Contents List of illustrations v List of contributors ix List of abbreviations xi Introduction 1 Naoyuki Yoshino, José Ansón, and Matthias Helble PART I: Global Overview 1. Financial Inclusion and the Role of the Post Office 7 José Ansón, Alexandre Berthaud, Leora Klapper, and Dorothe Singer 2. Global Panorama of Postal Financial Inclusion 36 Nils Clotteau and Bsrat Measho 3. Postal Savings Bank and Macroeconomic Stability in Asia 80 Anwar Nasution PART II: Promoting Postal Financial Inclusion 4. Remittances as a Trigger for Postal Financial Inclusion 115 Hans Boon 5. Regulation to Foster Postal Financial Inclusion 147 Luisa Anderloni and Odile Pilley PART III: The Impact of Postal Financial Inclusion 6. Brazil: Postal Services for Financial Inclusion, Trade, and SME Development 183 José Ansón, Laïa Bosch Gual, and Justin Caron 7. Gender and Financial Inclusion Through the Post 226 Smriti Rao 8. Postal Savings and Financial Inclusion in Japan 268 Naoyuki Yoshino, Matthias Helble, Asami Takeda, and Suguru Shimazaki iii iv Contents PART IV: The Future of Postal Financial Inclusion 9. Postal Financial Services, Development and Inclusion: Building on the Past and Looking to the Future 289 Gonzales d’Alcantara, Paul H. Dembinski, and Odile Pilley 10. Disruptive Technologies and Financial Inclusion: Lessons for Postal Savings Banks to Strengthen Their Financial Inclusion Role Using Financial Technology 317 Alexandre Berthaud Index 337 List of illustrations Figures 1.1 Account Ownership by Type and Country, 2011 11 2.1 Percentage of Total Financial Access Branches by Type of Financial Institution 39 2.2 Percentage of Total Financial Access Contact Points by Type of Financial Institution 40 2.3 Typology of Business Models for Posts to Offer Financial Services 45 2.4 Frequency of Business Model Adoption by Posts 46 2.5 Governance Between Entity Providing Postal Financial Services and The Rest of the Post 46 2.6 Ownership of the Entity Offering Financial Services 48 2.7 Areas of Responsibility of the Partners 51 2.8 Postal Density by Region: Average Area Covered by Permanent Posts (km2) 58 2.9 Postal Density by Region: Average Number of Inhabitants Served by a Permanent Post 59 2.10 Percentage of Posts Connected to an Electronic Network by Region 61 2.11 Levels of Automation of Back Office by Region 62 2.12 Financial Services Regulation 64 2.13 Share of Posts with Potential to Become Agents for Banks 65 2.14 Ranking of the Top 10 Posts According to the Financial Inclusion Capacity Index 69 2.15 Ranking of the Top 10 Posts from Developing Countries 70 2.16 Financial Inclusion Capacity Index Compared to Account Ownership 71 2.17 Financial Inclusion Capacity Index for High-Income- Country Posts 72 2.18 Financial Inclusion Capacity Index for Upper-Middle- Income-Country Posts 73 2.19 Financial Inclusion Capacity Index for Lower-Middle- Income-Country Posts 74 2.20 Financial Inclusion Capacity Index for Low-Income- Country Posts 75 2.21 Financial Inclusion Capacity Index for ADB Regional Member Posts 76 3.1 Policy Tools to Conduct Monetary Policy 88 v vi List of illustrations 4.1 McKinsey’s Global Payments Map 2016 121 5.1 Financial Inclusion: Who May be in Charge and Why 148 5.2 Number of Policies (thousands) in Force Through the Partnership between Barid Al-Maghrib-ABB and Wafa Assurance 159 5.3 Lien Viet Postbank Deposits and Loans (in VND billion) 169 5.4 Outstanding Loans by Beneficiary, Vietnam Bank for Social Policies 171 5.5 ABB in the Moroccan Market 173 5.6 LVPB Financial Performance 175 5.7 Range of Public Interventions to Enable Inclusive Financial Market Development Through Posts 176 6.1 Brazilian Municipalities With No Bank Branch in 2002 (Grey Areas) 187 6.2 Need for Simplified Export Processes (2005) 189 6.3 Geographical Distribution of Correios Post Offices (2005) 190 6.4 Evolution of DSE Exported Value 202 6.5 EF Exported Values 202 6.6 EF Number of Exporters 203 6.7 EF Number of Objects 203 6.8 Exporta Fácil vs. all Correios International Shipments 204 8.1 Japan’s Postal Savings, ¥ Trillion, Years Ending 31 March 1979–2016 269 8.2 Household Savings Ratio in Japan 1955–2015 270 8.3 Use of Postal Savings 272 8.4 The Crowding-In Effect 275 8.5 The Crowding-Out Effect 276 8.6 Land Prices and the Total Expenditure by Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan 1972–2017 281 10.1 The importance of Financial Services in the US Gross Domestic Product 319 10.2 Selected Fintech Companies Categorized According to their Activity 320 10.3 Reasons for Fintech Adoption 321 10.4 Blockchain Applications 322 Tables 1.1 Who Has an Account at the Post Office? 12 1.2 Overview of Postal Business Models 14 1.3 Individual-Level Regressions 17 1.4 Individual-Level Regressions with Country-Level Variables 24 3.1 Elements of Monetary Policy in ASEAN+3 Countries Following the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 86 List of illustrations vii 3.2 Size and Composition of Financial System (% of GDP) 100 3.3 Financial Inclusion in Indonesia, East Asia and Pacific 108 4.1 Ranking of Remittance Recipient Countries (as a % of GDP and in $ million) 119 4.2 Ranking of Remittance Recipient Countries in Terms of Average Cost of Remittances (in % and in currency value of 1% of the remittance cost) 122 4.3 Density of Postal and Bank Networks in Asia by Population Served 126 4.4 Top 10 and Bottom 10 National Postal Operators by Level of Diversification of Their Revenue Streams 128 5.1 Economic and Social Indicators of the Countries Studied 153 6.1 Socio-Demographic Regional Differences (2005 Values) 188 6.2 Exporting Activity Regional Differences (2005 Values) 188 6.3 Financial Access Regional Differences (2006 Values) 188 6.4 Tobit Regression of Number of Exporters and Exported Value, Per Type of Export—Sign of Effect 205 6.5 Networks by Semi-Deciles of Population, 2002 213 6.6 Networks by Semi-Deciles of Population, 2006 214 6.7 Networks by Semi-Deciles of GDP Per Capita (Current Values, BRL), Year 2002 215 6.8 Networks by semi-deciles of GDP per capita (current values, BRL), year 2002 216 6.9 Banco Postal Services and Products by Semi-Deciles of GDP Per Capita (Current Values, BRL), 2005 217 6.10 Banco Postal Services and Products by Semi-Deciles of GDP Per Capita (Current Values, BRL), Year 2005 218 6.11 ATT for the Whole Sample 220 6.12 ATT for Only Those Municipalities Unbanked in 2001 220 6.13 ATT for Municipalities with 1 to 5 Banks in 2001 221 6.14 ATT for Municipalities with More Than 5 Banks in 2001 221 6.15 ATT for the Whole Sample 222 6.16 ATT for Only Those Municipality Unbanked in 2001 222 6.17 ATT for Municipalities with 1 to 5 Banks in 2001 223 6.18 ATT for Municipalities with More Than Five Banks in 2001 223 6.19 Results of the Arellano–Bond Dynamic Panel Regression 225 7.1 List of Developing Countries with Postal Accounts 232 7.2 List of Developed Countries with Postal Accounts 236 7.3 Correlation of Countries Offering Postal Accounts 237 7.4 Summary Statistics 238 7.5 T-test: Post-FI Gender Gap Ratio by Developed and Developing Countries 240 viii List of illustrations 7.6 T-test: Posts-only Ratio by Developed and Developing Country 240 7.7 T-test: FI-only Ratio by Developed and Developing Countries 241 7.8 Correlations: Metrics of Postal Branch Density and Female Staff Against Gender Ratios 243 7.9 Correlations: Metrics of Postal Branch Density and Female Staff Against Gender Ratio 245 7.10 Correlations: Demand-side Correlates of Gender Ratios 247 7.11 Regression Results, Dependent Variable Posts-Only Female:Male Ratio (t-statistics in parentheses) 251 7.12 Regression Results, Dependent Variable Posts-FI Female:Male Ratio Gap (t-statistics in parentheses) 253 7.13 Summary of Qualitative Survey of Postal Authorities 259 8.1 Sectoral Disbursement of Subsidies From 1955 to 2017 (¥ billon) 273 8.2 Investments in Social Overheads and Industrial Infrastructure 1955–1980 (every five years), ¥ billion 274 8.3 Composition of Fiscal Investment and Loans Program by Use (%) 276 8.4 Financial Institutions in Japan in 2017 278 8.5 Determinants of Demand for Postal Deposits 279 8.6 Financial Assistance in the Resolution of Failed Financial Institutions 1992–2014 (¥ billion) 280 8.7 Ratio of Postal-Savings Flow to Individual Bank-Deposit Flows by Selected Prefecture 282 8.8 Results of Operations (31 March 2017) 284 List of contributors Gonzales d’Alcantara, emeritus professor of econometrics at the University of Antwerp, Belgium, and managing director of d’Alcantara Economic Consulting.
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