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Singpost's Associate CFA Institute Research Challenge hosted by CFA Society Singapore National University of Singapore Singapore Post Ltd Initial Opinion SELL Equity | Singapore | Industrials, Logistics 30 January 2015 Initiate at Sell; Stalling Cash Cow, Declining Albus Securities Margins Chia Guo Cong +65 9877 2219 Albus Securities (NUS Singapore) [email protected] Initiate Sell with S$1.51 PT Chiu Haidee +65 8393 1373 We initiate coverage on Singapore Post with a Sell rating and $1.51 price target. We see much lower margins than the street (FY17e operating margin of 17.7% vs street’s 19.2%) for 2 reasons. Albus Securities (NUS Singapore) [email protected] Firstly, mail margins are on a structural decline due to reducing economies of scale on lower volumes. Secondly, low margins in logistics are unlikely to lift off, as intensifying competition Goh Shi Bin +65 8399 4138 from better positioned rivals restrains SingPost’s logistics volume growth, and consequently Albus Securities (NUS Singapore) logistics margins due to high operating leverage. Disappointing logistics volumes lead to slower [email protected] revenue growth through FY17 (10% p.a. vs street’s 12%). Finally, market optimism over the Yap Chew Guan +65 9139 9438 SingPost-Alibaba JV (as reflected in the 40x PE of the logistics segment) is unlikely to fully deliver, Albus Securities (NUS Singapore) as SingPost is at a disadvantageous position in competing for Alibaba’s volumes between China [email protected] and ASEAN/ANZ. Yong Guo Hao +65 9117 6016 Albus Securities (NUS Singapore) Core mail business afflicted with structurally declining margins [email protected] The margin of the core business (63%-84% of group OP) has fallen by 10ppt over the past 8 years, and we foresee a further 8ppt loss over the next decade. We isolated the cause to be that secular e-substitution leads to 2% p.a. decline in mail volumes per capita, which reduces economies of scale and raised unit volume expenses by 5% p.a. Yet, SingPost is now compelled to Stock Data raise service standards like extending to 6-day week, vs global peers in Australia/US/NZ which are cutting instead. Bulk mail (c.80% of domestic mail) reached an inflection point in 2012 (from 6% p.a. prior to 2012 to 1% post-2012). 12-month rating Sell Low margins in overcrowded market unlikely to lift off 12m price target S$1.51 SingPost’s strategy increases its exposure to the thin-margin logistics business (4% vs mail’s (30% downside) 29%) which would drag its OPM from 22% now to 15% in FY19. Furthermore, intensifying competition from better positioned rivals would restrain SingPost’s volume growth, suppressing Price S$2.16 already low margins owing to the high operating leverage nature of the business. We have seen Bloomberg Ticker: SPOST SP this play out in 2004-2009, when a 38% increase in the number of APAC transport/logistics firms Exchange: SGX led to average gross margins to decline from 50% to 40%. Our proprietary analysis documents at least 11 firms aggressively developing end-to-end capabilities in competition with SingPost. These include 5 logistics/express firms (which have c.30-50% directly-owned coverage, vs 52-wk range S$1.31-2.16 SingPost’s 3%), 4 postal players (one of which is 27%-73% cheaper than SingPost’s courier), and Market cap. S$4,610m 2 end-to-end logistics providers (which have stronger local presence in ASEAN countries). Even the top e-marketplaces in each ASEAN country (Lazada, Qoo10) are moving logistics/delivery in- Shares o/s 2,145m house, obviating the need for SingPost’s logistics services. Free float 1,647m Avg. daily volume 6.3m Optimism in Alibaba partnership unlikely to fully deliver Cash Dividend S$0.0625 The announcement regarding the impending JV with Alibaba has sent the implied P/E of Book value/ share S$0.48 SingPost’s logistics segment from 19x to 40x, implying exceedingly high expectations in ROE 17.6% incremental volumes between China and ASEAN/ANZ. But this is unlikely to fully deliver, in our P/E (ttm) 32.9x view. We observe that S.F. Express and YTO Express, 2 of the largest couriers in China that are part of Alibaba’s China-wide logistics network “Cainiao”, have expanded their presence in SingPost’s key geographies. Yet, SingPost is at a disadvantageous position to them (in terms of EPS (S$) Ours Cons. price, scale, network and integration with Alibaba) in competing for Alibaba’s volumes between 3/14A 0.067 0.067 China and ASEAN/ANZ. 3/15E 0.068 0.074 3/16E 0.073 0.082 Valuation: We use SOTP as our primary methodology, arriving at a PT of $1.51, comprising mail at $1.02, logistics at $0.30 and retail/eCommerce at $0.19. We forecast FY14-17e earnings growth Price Chart of 10.8%, based on revenue growth of 23.3% and EBITDA margin decline from 26% to 21.4%. Our FY15e/16/17e revenue estimates are 0.5%/1.8%/6.0% below the street, and our EPS estimates at $0.068/$0.073/$0.075 are 7.8%/10.1%/19.8% below the street. 2.20 SPOST: +60% Catalysts: Earnings announcement (3Q15 in start-Feb and 4Q15/FY15 in start-May); complications/delay in Alibaba partnership 2.00 Risks: More volumes than expected from Alibaba JV, accelerated growth in eCommerce market, market share gains, margin improvement in logistics 1.80 Highlights FY Mar 13A 14A 15E 16E 17E Revenue (S$m) 659 821 911 1,022 1,086 1.60 OP (S$m) 174 179 179 191 192 EBITDA (S$m) 211 213 216 229 232 Net Profit (S$m) 137 143 145 156 159 1.40 EPS (S$) 0.064 0.067 0.068 0.073 0.075 STI: +9% EPS growth (%) -13% 4.5% 1.3% 7.6% 1.7% DPS (S$) 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 1.20 P/E (x) 33.6 32.1 31.7 29.4 29.0 01/14 04/14 07/14 10/14 01/15 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.3 21.1 20.8 19.6 19.4 Net gearing -16% -32% -27% -15% -1% SPOST STI (rebased) ROE 20.5% 20.6% 20.1% 20.5% 19.8% Business Description SingPost’s 3 business segments at a glance % of Total % of total Segments Key Sub Segments OP Margin OP Revenue Domestic (52%) International (38%) Others (10%) Mail Core business. Delivers public and Handles inbound/outbound Express mailing solutions, business 86.8% 56% 29.1% business letters/parcels across Sg. international mail and packages. printing, selling of stamps, etc. SpeedPost, Lock + Store and Quantium Solutions (44%) Famous Holdings (32%) Transshipment (24%) Logistics Warehousing and delivery in APAC. Freight forwarder and transshipment Courier, parcel services (in and 8.6% 37% 3.9% Doesn’t fully own “last mile”. provider. outbound) storage and transshipment Financial Services (42%) SP e-Commerce (30%) vPost and Retail (28%) Retail/ Courier for online purchases to/from Partners with financial institutions to eCommerce Provides front end ecommerce solutions part of US, EU, JP & CH; Multibrand 4.6% 7% 8.7% offer financial services. eCommerce platform. Mail Revenues to fall to 50% by 2019 Singapore Post Limited (SingPost) is Singapore’s designated Public Postal Licensee, operating in 3 100% major segments, namely Mail, Logistics and Retail/eCommerce. The mail business continues to dominate SingPost’s bottom line, accounting for 56% of revenues and 87% of operating profits. Yet, 75% despite rising mail volumes, margins in this segment have fallen to 29% from 40% since 2007, resulting in stagnating operating profits. 50% Logistics constitutes the new pillar of growth and the segment has more than doubled since 2010 to 25% reach c.$369m revenues in 2014. SingPost notably focuses expansion efforts towards developing its 0% end-to-end eCommerce logistics in Southeast Asia, including warehousing, fulfilment and the last mile 2009 2011 2013 2015E 2017E 2019E value chain. Management guidance is to reduce mail revenue contributions to c.50% (we expect by Retail/Others Logistics Mail 2019). Yet, this is a shift to a much lower margin business of about c3.9% OPM compared to mail’s Source: Company, Albus Securities c.29.1%. Recently, Alibaba invested S$312.5m in SingPost or 10.3% of enlarged share capital, which complements SingPost’s vision of being a regional leader in eCommerce logistics. However, during our OPM of mail is 29.1% compared to management visit in Dec 2014, they gave no further colour on the form and timeline of collaboration. logistics’ 3.9% Revenue Breakdown - S$821m OP Breakdown - S$164m 7% (2014) (2014) 50% 8% 5% 40% Mail Mail Mail 30% Logistics Logistics 20% 37% Retail/eComm 56% Retail/eComm 10% Logistics 87% 0% Source: Company Data Source: Company Data 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015E 2017E Source: Company, Albus Securities Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning Macroeconomic Analysis 84% of APAC eCommerce action ASEAN contributes only a small proportion in APAC eCommerce sales comes from China, Japan and South While many have turned their focus towards eCommerce in the region, it is worthy to note that 84% of Korea the APAC eCommerce action comes from China, Japan and South Korea, yet only a small proportion of 501 100% 16% from the emerging Southeast Asia which SingPost has presence in. Internet retail sales in Asia Pacific reached total record sales of USD$501 billion in 2014 (surpassing North America by 6.8%) and 75% are expected to grow at c.18.8% over the next 2 years.
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